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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: 2009-49 Screen Reader version

Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble
Figure Data

Figure 1: The Target Nominal Federal Funds Rate

DateTarget Funds Rate
23-Sep-090.125
12-Aug-090.125
24-Jun-090.125
29-Apr-090.125
18-Mar-090.125
28-Jan-090.125
16-Dec-080.125
29-Oct-081
16-Sep-082
5-Aug-082
25-Jun-082
30-Apr-082
18-Mar-082.25
30-Jan-083
11-Dec-074.25
31-Oct-074.5
18-Sep-074.75
7-Aug-075.25
28-Jun-075.25
9-May-075.25
21-Mar-075.25
31-Jan-075.25
12-Dec-065.25
25-Oct-065.25
20-Sep-065.25
8-Aug-065.25
29-Jun-065.25
10-May-065
28-Mar-064.75
31-Jan-064.5
13-Dec-054.25
1-Nov-054
20-Sep-053.75
9-Aug-053.5
30-Jun-053.25
3-May-053
22-Mar-052.75
2-Feb-052.5
14-Dec-042.25
10-Nov-042
21-Sep-041.75
10-Aug-041.5
30-Jun-041.25
4-May-041
16-Mar-041
28-Jan-041
9-Dec-031
28-Oct-031
16-Sep-031
12-Aug-031
25-Jun-031
6-May-031.25
18-Mar-031.25
29-Jan-031.25
10-Dec-021.25
6-Nov-021.25
24-Sep-021.75
13-Aug-021.75
26-Jun-021.75
7-May-021.75
19-Mar-021.75
30-Jan-021.75
11-Dec-011.75
6-Nov-012
2-Oct-012.5
21-Aug-013.5
27-Jun-013.75
15-May-014
20-Mar-015
31-Jan-015.5
19-Dec-006.5
15-Nov-006.5
3-Oct-006.5
22-Aug-006.5
28-Jun-006.5
16-May-006.5
21-Mar-006
2-Feb-005.75
Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: The Target Federal Funds Rate and Taylor (1993) Rule Prescriptions

Meeting DateDateTarget RateTaylor Rule (headline CPI inflation, current output gap) Taylor Rule (real time; core PCE, gap)
Feb01-02, 2000 5.75  
Mar21, 20002000Q167.594.80
May16, 2000 6.5  
June27-28, 20002000Q26.57.845.00
Aug22 6.5  
Oct03, 20002000Q36.57.744.84
Nov15, 2000 6.5  
Dec19, 20002000Q46.57.394.17
Jan30-31, 2001 5.5  
Mar20, 20012001Q156.93.91
May15, 2001 4  
June26-27, 20012001Q23.756.553.63
Aug21, 2001 3.5  
Oct02, 20012001Q32.54.992.72
Nov06, 2001 2  
Dec11, 20012001Q41.753.43.46
Jan29-30, 2002 1.75  
Mar19, 20022002Q11.752.33.31
May07, 2002 1.75  
June25-26, 20022002Q21.752.43.54
Aug13, 2002 1.75  
Sept24, 20022002Q31.752.624.13
Nov06, 2002 1.25  
Dec10, 20022002Q41.253.512.94
Jan28-29, 2003 1.25  
Mar18, 20032003Q11.254.332.80
May06, 2003 1.25  
June24-25, 20032003Q212.862.11
Aug12, 2003 1  
Sept15-16, 20032003Q313.642.68
Oct28, 2003 1  
Dec09, 20032003Q413.462.02
Jan27-28, 2004 1  
Mar16, 20042004Q113.232.41
May04, 2004 1  
June29-30, 20042004Q21.254.653.02
Aug10, 2004 1.5  
Sept21, 20042004Q31.754.622.90
Nov10, 2004 2  
Dec14, 20042004Q42.255.863.22
Feb01-02, 2005 2.5  
Mar22, 20052005Q12.755.523.50
May03, 2005 3  
June29-30, 20052005Q23.255.264.04
Aug09, 2005 3.5  
Sept20, 20052005Q33.756.594.20
Nov01, 2005 4  
Dec13, 20052005Q44.256.754.00
Jan31, 2006 4.5  
Mar27-28, 20062006Q14.757.134.29
May10, 2006 5  
June28-29, 20062006Q25.257.284.93
Aug09, 2006 5.25  
Sept20, 20062006Q35.256.324.92
Oct24-25, 2006 5.25  
Dec12, 20062006Q45.254.414.69
Jan30-31, 2007 5.25  
Mar20-21, 20072007Q15.254.984.59
May09, 2007 5.25  
June27-28, 20072007Q25.255.484.19
Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Real-Time and Revised Core PCE Inflation

DATE2004q1 vintagecurrent vintage
2000:Q11.85378429807871.71192510187357
2000:Q21.743054777355571.67130919220055
2000:Q31.615113646745911.7437452615618
2000:Q41.528916015723671.82335043418393
2001:Q11.611121155507341.81555305388166
2001:Q21.773269785325221.89360180447817
2001:Q31.876161361865371.70838081879547
2001:Q42.135918464845931.73290001744897
2002:Q11.689369526106631.46665076801336
2002:Q21.678423501864381.67483748353239
2002:Q31.848474150780581.97058665086463
2002:Q41.583542848233251.81272444658842
2003:Q11.558262289663761.70932866116833
2003:Q21.287869258531771.49962297014561
2003:Q31.049479592917461.41688855077975
2003:Q40.8604894333432481.47721529649596
2004:Q1 1.84130918868954
2004:Q2 2.11679519509465
2004:Q3 2.18054904412148
2004:Q4 2.22870127309891
2005:Q1 2.34330682673762
2005:Q2 2.22969095827528
2005:Q3 2.13503538000366
2005:Q4 2.33844529925806
2006:Q1 2.11228572292375
2006:Q2 2.2943228289632
2006:Q3 2.45377949926127
2006:Q4 2.30385496523886
Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: The Federal Funds Rate and a Range of Rule Prescriptions

 actualmaxmin
1966Q14.72649611.911376.191568
1966Q25.10722711.82766.595036
1966Q35.63804212.253837.138731
1966Q45.79996411.807477.779398
1967Q15.00526111.396077.071207
1967Q24.1275459.7831985.957377
1967Q34.0250239.9640856.026419
1967Q44.3223349.9506855.966869
1968Q14.97429611.73827.631387
1968Q26.25163412.822358.800056
1968Q36.21252113.250898.781135
1968Q46.18303313.729958.868188
1969Q16.88229414.566719.037794
1969Q28.81202115.308459.084293
1969Q39.53251915.093739.204315
1969Q49.48751413.726128.56984
1970Q19.06526913.383327.943106
1970Q28.3170512.213157.1615
1970Q37.03691311.874556.9663
1970Q45.80544310.531455.338456
1971Q13.99227211.169476.944902
1971Q24.7358869.7206136.619356
1971Q35.7048789.0857996.595437
1971Q44.9316417.8193424.870473
1972Q13.6599468.8014335.700106
1972Q24.4555338.8063516.238116
1972Q34.9213518.4891766.166095
1972Q45.3537079.4289396.538935
1973Q16.84979512.103657.214626
1973Q28.24709114.140157.849254
1973Q311.296414.981947.506207
1973Q410.6649916.7779.329157
1974Q19.92579817.465679.694264
1974Q212.0809718.1968611.78902
1974Q313.0478718.1290412.67232
1974Q49.93742218.1756513.07661
1975Q16.60120215.9880611.11003
1975Q25.64628214.300518.782495
1975Q36.44320812.156658.456377
1975Q45.64374610.885747.648893
1976Q15.01640410.658147.895605
1976Q25.4108129.942867.245365
1976Q35.50275410.238186.404953
1976Q45.0638839.6371646.184056
1977Q14.8370879.5045587.647522
1977Q25.3692511.117849.673623
1977Q36.07416211.5238310.28217
1977Q46.82612810.732369.36752
1978Q17.08907510.329989.003098
1978Q27.66409714.2166611.68115
1978Q38.55396115.1611811.79823
1978Q410.2005816.8983112.515
1979Q110.7519317.2360411.78312
1979Q210.8719818.1884412.12119
1979Q311.7302119.6999712.26197
1979Q414.7596920.3973412.47636
1980Q116.500922.1135713.88198
1980Q213.7025921.1728610.92275
1980Q310.4734918.6752711.11138
1980Q417.4332818.8245813.27533
1981Q118.3148317.5938113.76395
1981Q219.7585414.8057511.84886
1981Q319.5246417.5005611.46461
1981Q414.769814.683038.422577
1982Q115.4915511.723373.917144
1982Q215.8484111.096363.295271
1982Q311.812717.9098082.100714
1982Q49.8728816.076859-0.024683
1983Q19.1740356.591226-0.838896
1983Q29.332756.5737840.122618
1983Q310.065167.2709430.124589
1983Q410.032677.0646412.427966
1984Q110.320598.3720084.749418
1984Q211.29249.2533135.712545
1984Q312.240498.9743915.016904
1984Q49.8475848.4824864.932214
1985Q18.9725668.2277214.96745
1985Q28.3644788.0237144.601409
1985Q38.3380497.7592915.058939
1985Q48.5624537.8379725.218148
1986Q18.2565647.4871884.801095
1986Q27.2665396.6659492.50272
1986Q36.4982296.7454582.625006
1986Q46.5619676.5239051.848562
1987Q16.5132276.4555562.718851
1987Q26.9765716.8834245.354967
1987Q37.1795957.2233995.806786
1987Q47.266438.5809156.819248
1988Q16.9906347.9414396.256545
1988Q27.5242289.1271896.96145
1988Q38.4273738.9452317.133455
1988Q48.9675039.8396617.576596
1989Q110.0495510.073638.232515
1989Q210.3639710.701687.790093
1989Q39.6463799.8774857.039748
1989Q49.1252559.1713886.567515
1990Q18.72370110.151326.884855
1990Q28.715228.8632356.962785
1990Q38.6237139.1402657.151704
1990Q48.1655799.5910485.6387
1991Q16.738657.7764554.205082
1991Q26.1235257.08073.508564
1991Q35.8903516.4396142.802304
1991Q45.004515.9965571.867598
1992Q14.1624675.3522941.758766
1992Q23.8967245.4913892.256811
1992Q33.3572795.2089542.04364
1992Q43.1259895.419142.24231
1993Q13.1304295.1772351.685338
1993Q23.0882675.0750241.912692
1993Q33.1506524.7551181.430021
1993Q43.0774764.9320061.993742
1994Q13.3101854.7802362.003288
1994Q24.0761694.9117153.248425
1994Q34.6509325.291333.864321
1994Q45.3762315.2884344.27081
1995Q16.0632075.5062144.105147
1995Q26.2930695.4776163.616924
1995Q36.0527755.8963753.217247
1995Q45.9694895.8375553.186575
1996Q15.5913355.2860563.236785
1996Q25.4595556.0830783.881231
1996Q35.5274036.3584593.943532
1996Q45.4984537.4316984.301023
1997Q15.4983267.2793724.398038
1997Q25.7590887.0347744.665683
1997Q35.7700076.9193284.638935
1997Q45.7413416.7222654.117471
1998Q15.7561476.8201893.566108
1998Q25.7342326.7187233.441073
1998Q35.7703577.0100763.691913
1998Q45.0509188.1278553.967834
1999Q14.9148187.4308044.33974
1999Q24.9298677.3459094.833715
1999Q35.2978838.0870854.935634
1999Q45.5260079.4164345.22247
2000Q15.9226239.7656595.247041
2000Q26.56646810.515265.398497
2000Q36.8333099.7055385.16555
2000Q46.782359.2558054.974276
2001Q15.8381338.1159184.536215
2001Q24.4827677.3930494.408054
2001Q33.6135175.1550743.527097
2001Q42.1869475.3527272.530116
2002Q11.7726685.8507371.640086
2002Q21.7900964.8577491.801336
2002Q31.7796644.8133882.314504
2002Q41.4752653.9366241.933946
2003Q11.2750625.0419911.315685
2003Q21.2721323.2745141.100439
2003Q31.0361774.1052961.980166
2003Q41.0155813.7417471.647095
2004Q11.0222963.5318421.940228
2004Q21.0291624.9333852.776221
2004Q31.4618474.7525962.627139
2004Q41.9969275.9583353.090114
2005Q12.5347995.7931543.496735
2005Q23.0297125.6432163.769219
2005Q33.5683137.3240283.918724
2005Q44.117346.9899183.714166
2006Q14.6207367.578374.187686
2006Q25.1006718.0587474.481812
2006Q35.4631196.7371694.300297
2006Q45.4631195.734213.170633
2007Q15.4737315.31323.282307
2007Q25.4667225.39183.497224
2007Q35.2795525.4325493.877497
2007Q44.6644257.4748093.421717
2008Q13.2775957.2773573.099617
2008Q22.136917.5442013.09689
2008Q31.9878238.4588762.618584
2008Q40.5163142.222784-0.959561
Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Key Macroeconomic Developments

 GDPUnemployment RatePCE PriceCore PCE PriceFederal Funds RateResidential Investment ShareCurrent Account Share
1998Q14.52294.63010.96321.51445.75614.2425-2.0466
1998Q23.9224.40430.9291.34055.73424.35-2.3612
1998Q33.9884.51870.98251.47145.77044.4491-2.6625
1998Q44.98264.420.931.47055.05094.5064-2.695
1999Q14.92664.27071.19981.51914.91484.5174-2.7662
1999Q24.80444.23721.53991.49884.92994.564-3.117
1999Q34.75494.23331.73051.45015.29794.566-3.4325
1999Q44.8224.06731.97341.4835.5264.5604-3.5617
2000Q14.16814.04842.561.71195.92264.6267-4.0711
2000Q25.37633.94922.42761.67136.56654.5278-4.0059
2000Q34.14014.03012.48551.74376.83334.4527-4.3187
2000Q42.9083.91672.48781.82346.78244.4439-4.3758
2001Q12.30124.2272.2931.81565.83814.5083-4.2328
2001Q21.00194.40642.32981.89364.48284.5663-3.7922
2001Q30.64084.81291.75761.70843.61354.6662-4.0662
2001Q40.40225.53091.2541.73292.18694.628-3.4042
2002Q11.59955.69870.78231.46671.77274.6849-3.9687
2002Q21.47325.83631.08651.67481.79014.7782-4.3599
2002Q32.26065.72191.57981.97061.77974.7793-4.339
2002Q41.92175.83932.00231.81271.47534.9046-4.5818
2003Q11.46335.86652.49961.70931.27515.0068-4.9642
2003Q21.73276.14561.78351.49961.27215.0678-4.7351
2003Q32.92366.10011.93041.41691.03625.2427-4.6241
2003Q43.82795.81091.92561.47721.01565.4082-4.4135
2004Q14.13715.67812.03611.84131.02235.4978-4.7108
2004Q24.04745.58212.71272.11681.02925.7359-5.2997
2004Q33.08395.42662.67832.18051.46185.829-5.3241
2004Q43.05135.38033.03222.22871.99695.8679-5.9097
2005Q13.35185.26582.79592.34332.53485.9358-5.6374
2005Q23.05985.10982.68142.22973.02976.1076-5.7222
2005Q33.08554.96273.2032.1353.56836.221-5.8184
2005Q42.72694.9233.26992.33844.11736.2549-6.498
2006Q13.04634.69723.08752.11234.62076.1694-6.0273
2006Q22.97864.66443.21312.29435.10075.8769-6.0558
2006Q32.22944.63922.80712.45385.46315.5131-6.3864
2006Q42.44724.41691.89492.30395.46315.2023-5.5256
2007Q11.42434.48312.40372.50385.47374.9292-5.7728
2007Q21.86324.50792.44432.21545.46674.68-5.4448
2007Q32.73944.65652.28912.21575.27964.3414-4.8411
2007Q42.5314.76793.58862.48174.66443.9418-4.6124
2008Q12.03794.93393.57222.37913.27763.6041-4.9896
2008Q21.60025.36483.75642.5482.13693.4089-5.1793
2008Q30.02626.03544.34522.61951.98783.2217-5.0645
2008Q4-1.86196.84921.72892.03570.51632.9819-4.3179
Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: Evolution of Forecasts from the Blue Chip Survey

Columns A, B, and C refer to date forecast is made
Dates in subsequent columns (D through W refer to year being forecast)
Year: monthqtrGDP 2003GDP 2004GDP 2005GDP 2006GDP 2007GDP 2008Unemployment Rate 2003Unemployment Rate 2004Unemployment Rate 2005Unemployment Rate 2006Unemployment Rate 2007Unemployment Rate 2008200320042005200620072008
2002: 113.5     5.4     2.5     
2002: 2 3.5     5.4     2.5     
2002: 3 3.5     5.4     2.5     
2002: 423.4     5.2     2.5     
2002: 5 3.5     5.2     2.5     
2002: 6 3.6     5.3     2.5     
2002: 733.6     5.4     2.5     
2002: 8 3.5     5.5     2.4     
2002: 9 3.5     5.6     2.4     
2002: 1043.4     5.6     2.3     
2002: 11 3.3     5.6     2.2     
2002: 12 3.3     5.6     2.1     
2003: 113.33.5    5.75.4    2.12.4    
2003: 2 3.33.5    5.85.4    2.22.4    
2003: 3 3.13.6    5.85.5    2.22.4    
2003: 422.83.6    5.95.5    2.32.3    
2003: 5 2.73.6    5.95.6    2.32.3    
2003: 6 2.83.6    65.6    2.12.1    
2003: 732.73.7    6.15.7    1.92    
2003: 8 2.83.7    6.25.8    1.91.9    
2003: 9 3.23.8    6.25.8    21.9    
2003: 1043.33.7    6.25.8    21.9    
2003: 11 3.93.9    6.15.7    2.11.9    
2003: 12 4.23.9    65.7    2.11.9    
2004: 114.44.13.5   5.95.65.4   21.92.2   
2004: 2 4.34.23.6   5.95.55.3   1.91.92.1   
2004: 3 4.34.23.5   5.95.55.3   1.922.1   
2004: 424.34.23.6   5.95.45.2   1.92.12.1   
2004: 5  4.23.6    5.45.2    2.52.2   
2004: 6  4.23.5    5.45.2    2.82.2   
2004: 73 4.13.5    5.45.2    3.12.3   
2004: 8  3.93.5    5.45.2    3.32.3   
2004: 9  3.73.5    5.45.2    3.32.2   
2004: 104 3.83.5    5.45.2    3.22.3   
2004: 11  3.83.5    5.45.2    3.22.2   
2004: 12  3.93.4    5.45.2    3.32.2   
2005: 11 3.93.53.3   5.45.25.1   3.42.32.4  
2005: 2  3.73.53.3   5.45.25.1   3.42.22.4  
2005: 3  3.93.63.3   5.45.15.1   3.42.22.4  
2005: 42 3.93.63.3   5.45.15   3.42.42.4  
2005: 5   3.23.3    5.15.1    2.62.4  
2005: 6   3.33.2    5.15.1    2.72.4  
2005: 73  3.43.2    5.15.1    2.82.4  
2005: 8   3.63.2    55    2.92.3  
2005: 9   3.43.1    55    3.22.3  
2005: 104  3.43.3    5.15    3.62.3  
2005: 11   3.53.3    5.15    3.92.4  
2005: 12   3.63.3    54.9    3.92.3  
2006: 11  3.63.33.1   4.94.94.9   3.82.22.4 
2006: 2   3.13.43.1   4.94.94.9   3.72.32.4 
2006: 3   3.23.53   4.94.84.9   3.72.42.4 
2006: 42  3.23.53   4.94.84.8   3.72.42.4 
2006: 5    3.53    4.74.8    2.62.4 
2006: 6    3.53    4.84.8    2.82.3 
2006: 73   3.52.9    4.74.9    32.4 
2006: 8                   
2006: 9    3.42.8    4.85    3.22.5 
2006: 104   3.22.8    4.85    32.5 
2006: 11    32.8    4.64.9    2.52.5 
2006: 12    3.12.7    4.54.9    2.12.5 
2007: 11   3.12.73   4.54.94.8   1.92.52.4
2007: 2    3.42.73   4.54.84.8   22.42.3
2007: 3    3.12.73   4.54.84.8   22.62.4
2007: 42   3.12.53   4.54.84.8   22.72.4
2007: 5     2.32.9    4.74.7    32.4
2007: 6     2.23    4.74.7    3.22.4
2007: 73    2.32.9    4.74.7    3.42.4
2007: 8     2.32.9    4.74.7    3.52.4
2007: 9     2.32.7    4.74.9    3.42.4
2007: 104    2.22.5    4.84.9    3.32.3
2007: 11     2.52.4    4.85    3.62.3
2007: 12     2.52.1    4.85.1    3.72.3
2008: 11    2.62    4.85.1    3.92.4
2008: 2     2.51.6    4.85.4    42.4
2008: 3     2.41.3    4.85.5    42.7
2008: 42    2.51.1    4.85.5    42.8
2008: 5      1     5.5     3.1
2008: 6      1     5.6     3.5
2008: 73     1     5.8     4.1
2008: 8      1.1     5.9     4.4
2008: 9      1.3     6     4.5
2008: 104     0.6     6.3     4.1
2008: 11      0.1     6.5     3.4
2008: 12      -0.3     6.7     2.5
Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: Residential investment as a share of GDP and relative to long-run targets

DateResidential Investment Share
(percent)
Deviation of Residential investment
from FRB/US target
(percent)
Deviation of Residential investment
from EDO target
(percent)
1974Q14.766990895327376.55159839889893 
1974Q24.545531076349481.50171657785569 
1974Q34.44995134300571-0.970363892056244 
1974Q43.86676713228617-14.0902839017685 
1975Q13.67559494416136-23.6643978484497 
1975Q23.73261590280793-24.8751109800267 
1975Q33.88878562745158-19.5570218455249 
1975Q44.00700848696731-16.1179189147051 
1976Q14.2979633829954-12.0216552148327 
1976Q24.47025777115632-7.98399103712397 
1976Q34.38685418418181-5.12561908327448 
1976Q44.908744734660864.53606940147324 
1977Q15.033332525147054.50151116908328 
1977Q25.5696492912266715.9124327934517 
1977Q35.567223484208615.8806101684899 
1977Q45.5389243542216912.5824574294843 
1978Q15.6286934752868712.1642986484253 
1978Q25.74064133861418.1862894157876 
1978Q35.8172931368128214.5882787745934 
1978Q45.7532964051520617.7601170047804 
1979Q15.6225520762290714.5191809723785 
1979Q25.5663656636487211.1006198111724 
1979Q35.518132981092712.3185424107354 
1979Q45.3163495525306411.8452098985141 
1980Q14.9176711058510110.9057329979392 
1980Q24.096163658864170.215374084763891 
1980Q34.17451623500772-7.46953049794392 
1980Q44.48636350071578.3472265610918 
1981Q14.303255855414169.23561056331752 
1981Q24.17827261924645.89951376187973 
1981Q33.790400204467953.77358867830841 
1981Q43.43215847916495-6.34868563420458 
1982Q13.29022496333501-11.524535830584 
1982Q23.17641824331537-13.6485148366582 
1982Q33.15956480244321-15.5053512308913 
1982Q43.36682742017041-17.0499430915778 
1983Q13.87915876088631-5.39745681412241 
1983Q24.222746534123474.02855262767631 
1983Q34.527783887639515.5132073488751 
1983Q44.631016460365317.7834025786304 
1984Q14.6393821266161318.7545198036739 
1984Q24.643102443265222.5444483819507 
1984Q34.5618439631404523.3956168012323 
1984Q44.5352795472033320.70563565139643.9310846551767
1985Q14.4520391567845216.66144500114073.3908411507844
1985Q24.4339721371593315.22742401853973.00617126707705
1985Q34.4327899126747611.73337347849853.69474902173336
1985Q44.5263253196033110.60972104419925.31508856824187
1986Q14.706710258979969.35431251617318.89464405217497
1986Q24.9692205887572615.670385396635613.6795348746873
1986Q35.0334323467835318.018998851406816.408310165219
1986Q45.0254023636678113.534718421790616.8125065194471
1987Q14.990953318341919.5726761336230516.1236324510253
1987Q24.9698904757119214.147004535331315.8244734969175
1987Q34.915891612710413.44565052166215.0570560170504
1987Q44.8629479421712514.056720217745413.666482954741
1988Q14.736714477975678.8449290077064212.4377597213654
1988Q24.712033916429269.1579975382852411.8744727069595
1988Q34.667171578211549.7464324605092811.033465089082
1988Q44.654457838483999.4428868324456710.5018211191433
1989Q14.5627406218011510.87369793710998.55217029184556
1989Q24.404824052564286.067545395496435.87963052462479
1989Q34.30901423764887-0.2934653991552283.85148081697925
1989Q44.20705579010996-2.270914222951391.68164055035859
1990Q14.190245575702620.780769807316045-0.181671842294628
1990Q23.98313716662656-2.53369299455061-4.58833631818461
1990Q33.73987266663897-3.00314590151921-9.90210756040155
1990Q43.54117875874342-11.1454481999297-14.5240393967713
1991Q13.32014894761868-18.5831790811879-18.1248158682647
1991Q23.3666771720529-17.3451115265603-18.4140179155786
1991Q33.48573803813001-15.6482004147085-17.4626397438603
1991Q43.51536270325144-17.2203929935692-17.1003384036524
1992Q13.62409192960385-15.2813153579353-15.6087550840699
1992Q23.73447384540308-12.4434264333376-14.6807733727844
1992Q33.71380851727797-17.5297019348905-14.5047770299534
1992Q43.82809050691888-12.5939120640056-13.179975263391
1993Q13.85929821773464-12.6162679117225-12.2863957497684
1993Q23.89459708437853-11.252155803543-10.8822442653925
1993Q34.02588212321683-10.5640945530287-8.45868551948591
1993Q44.16935971967593-6.1685850914644-5.95612363224011
1994Q14.24373909284259-3.87751994489794-4.16847698105267
1994Q24.329802804265023.64939344009002-2.47892454615712
1994Q34.275893709585171.42860718418947-2.27292360819253
1994Q44.206699461826783.45464651872701-3.31911699296714
1995Q14.129893215302490.972004021868073-4.63171005735765
1995Q23.98963164244147-4.63794820259802-6.0095393174983
1995Q34.07621249747233-5.45158128422343-4.8621590646573
1995Q44.14140109756071-4.87553090016042-3.82394686224567
1996Q14.21263153181566-5.52643831741678-2.65605572939351
1996Q24.319305309079871.21886017450525-1.4058343551918
1996Q34.303997524804220.577188231426087-1.47794041083346
1996Q44.21117734029566-3.54427549120292-2.08795115642564
1997Q14.18743500357503-8.71870284792792-2.49727592733483
1997Q24.18872679344737-8.4601951435369-2.68590547397645
1997Q34.17693628476846-10.0778088398081-2.80948521639881
1997Q44.20314009275622-11.4932789772459-2.46875452714026
1998Q14.2425132427023-20.0514014240468-1.77281456086416
1998Q24.34999983905537-17.63546699990510.163012017895014
1998Q34.4491118323936-15.11106908890391.92190772203211
1998Q44.50641587526332-15.22637932888253.31666157450574
1999Q14.51739205286069-18.51283474940563.65168454657376
1999Q24.56404843074122-16.12597624413484.30406320609739
1999Q34.56604589682019-14.46871020355554.35683796381711
1999Q44.56037056835913-15.1438200523114.20495112399497
2000Q14.62665632220026-11.69438190197014.01556561501479
2000Q24.52783763790164-11.94755673425582.25013233558066
2000Q34.45266875721802-14.76305016657270.789436261003806
2000Q44.44390587972818-15.75141066944810.61460222421732
2001Q14.50825945620082-12.36527251814681.76651481138823
2001Q24.56632489617775-11.58490911525872.88472034520945
2001Q34.66623646314482-10.86940593104184.01552652930004
2001Q44.6280139884463-12.54094865469124.51349769701112
2002Q14.6849075691468-6.613880997070884.93198161489274
2002Q24.77824999948122-4.821269859569565.81518893176702
2002Q34.77926737454777-7.079257678404656.21700499898791
2002Q44.90459821581569-6.614518634962597.44193087584958
2003Q15.006848134343746.428879416494888.64337504247052
2003Q25.067758858242414.514062216565210.1203478706188
2003Q35.2427438232809612.621976276341712.6349417329467
2003Q45.4082400966743813.247273373478315.1755007651397
2004Q15.497783294451733.156993308670417.5697481758382
2004Q25.7359025733010841.298543217642120.5160195044458
2004Q35.8289642857292241.182490710051522.3508324433891
2004Q45.8678666191845540.274463148341223.6252396820983
2005Q15.9357862758605538.082274516632425.6913660641552
2005Q26.107596946664942.22593366858928.6325243838018
2005Q36.220955365403245.033789457213530.1385124447496
2005Q46.2548671678375249.369597272557430.093407561789
2006Q16.1693681710343542.728196532956228.7618443645224
2006Q25.8769107695341339.967229741616924.2400076261371
2006Q35.5131412430428431.250467735422318.2696628425448
2006Q45.2022722201826922.00284514197313.1060131285966
2007Q14.9292287101522312.4427861730647.75530631192487
2007Q24.680042939949087.456581591124262.29057665254239
2007Q34.341393820958861.34155741160787-4.13842628350532
2007Q43.94175896366146-10.2754478738215-11.2828325159889
2008Q13.60414694481141-22.1886955378067-17.6155902533546
2008Q23.40887073405738-26.6036799385103-22.1336967951682
2008Q33.22167049754487-29.9821957877038-26.6651236880756
2008Q42.98194075638024-36.0689905611542-31.2927364969329
Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: Nominal House Price Growth and Over/Undervaluation

yearqrtrOvervaluation (pct)4-quarter change (pct)
19781-5.7818.4
19782-4.4714.78
19783-2.4415.15
19784-1.1815.32
197911.8216
197924.5717.35
197935.0116.31
197945.8716.33
198015.9913.21
198025.579.96
198036.0810.37
198045.458.72
198115.158.51
198124.548.07
198133.445.44
198142.915.57
198210.613.07
19822-0.272.54
19823-2.092.14
19824-3.321.18
19831-3.653.09
19832-3.443.96
19833-3.165.17
19834-3.025.72
19841-3.195.54
19842-3.45.36
19843-3.455.19
19844-4.414.35
19851-4.614.67
19852-5.034.77
19853-5.484.8
19854-5.386.29
19861-4.397.3
19862-4.347.91
19863-3.548.68
19864-3.248.19
19871-1.089.31
198721.1810.16
198731.9410.16
198742.6210.2
198812.78.03
198824.357.58
198835.798.16
198846.768.54
198918.129.56
198928.218.23
198937.396.03
198947.625.49
199017.673.97
199026.713.08
199034.842.19
199043.01-0.13
199111.45-1.67
199121.62-0.69
199130.48-0.62
19914-0.82-0.36
19921-1.480.4
19922-1.89-0.58
19923-2.85-0.68
19924-3.410.18
19931-3.840.45
19932-4.210.81
19933-3.972.01
19934-3.712.57
19941-4.082.76
19942-3.872.76
19943-4.272.27
19944-4.541.72
19951-5.191.39
19952-5.441.48
19953-5.142.13
19954-5.482.18
19961-5.572.84
19962-5.263.09
19963-5.642.54
19964-6.12.5
19971-6.12.56
19972-5.952.62
19973-5.783.37
19974-5.234.42
19981-4.255.56
19982-3.676.09
19983-3.056.62
19984-2.366.96
19991-1.656.52
19992-0.427.09
199930.747.21
199941.77.49
200012.988.49
200024.779.16
200035.799.57
200046.639.81
200118.0210.18
200128.739.42
200139.539.27
2001410.179.07
2002111.088.35
2002212.768.98
2002314.669.79
2002416.410.53
2003117.4410.52
2003218.669.98
2003320.9110.05
2003422.89.99
2004126.3812.61
2004229.8715.13
2004332.1515.54
2004434.9316.63
2005139.4417.81
2005242.0416.9
2005344.3116.8
2005445.9415.53
2006146.9911.57
2006245.617.39
2006343.933.62
2006443.231.75
2007139.68-2.4
2007236.94-3.79
2007332.97-6.31
2007428.35-9.98
2008122.07-12.55
2008216.6-15.02
2008310.43-16.81
200842.43-19.69
20091-6.68-22.07
20092-4.01-15.72
20093-2.2-9.55
Return to Figure 8

Figure 9: Macroeconomic Implications of Alternative Policy Settings

 Taylor93_GDPTaylor93_Unemployment RateTaylor93_Core PCE PriceTaylor93_Nominal Federal Funds RateTaylor93_Residential Investment ShareTaylor93_Current Account ShareTaylor99_GDPTaylor99_Unemployment RateTaylor99_Core PCE PriceTaylor99_Nominal Federal Funds RateTaylor99_Residential Investment ShareTaylor99_Current Account ShareData_GDPData_Unemployment RateData_Core PCE PriceData_Nominal Federal Funds RateData_Residential Investment ShareData_Current Account Share
2000Q14.16814.04841.71195.92264.6267-4.07114.16814.04841.71195.92264.6267-4.07114.16814.04841.71195.92264.6267-4.0711
2000Q25.37633.94921.67136.56654.5278-4.00595.37633.94921.67136.56654.5278-4.00595.37633.94921.67136.56654.5278-4.0059
2000Q34.14014.03011.74376.83334.4527-4.31874.14014.03011.74376.83334.4527-4.31874.14014.03011.74376.83334.4527-4.3187
2000Q42.9083.91671.82346.78244.4439-4.37582.9083.91671.82346.78244.4439-4.37582.9083.91671.82346.78244.4439-4.3758
2001Q12.30124.2271.81565.83814.5083-4.23282.30124.2271.81565.83814.5083-4.23282.30124.2271.81565.83814.5083-4.2328
2001Q21.00194.40641.89364.48284.5663-3.79221.00194.40641.89364.48284.5663-3.79221.00194.40641.89364.48284.5663-3.7922
2001Q30.64084.81291.70843.61354.6662-4.06620.64084.81291.70843.61354.6662-4.06620.64084.81291.70843.61354.6662-4.0662
2001Q40.40225.53091.73292.18694.628-3.40420.40225.53091.73292.18694.628-3.40420.40225.53091.73292.18694.628-3.4042
2002Q11.59955.69871.46671.77274.6849-3.96871.59955.69871.46671.77274.6849-3.96871.59955.69871.46671.77274.6849-3.9687
2002Q21.47325.83631.67481.79014.7782-4.35991.47325.83631.67481.79014.7782-4.35991.47325.83631.67481.79014.7782-4.3599
2002Q32.26065.72191.97061.77974.7793-4.3392.26065.72191.97061.77974.7793-4.3392.26065.72191.97061.77974.7793-4.339
2002Q41.92175.83931.81271.47534.9046-4.58181.92175.83931.81271.47534.9046-4.58181.92175.83931.81271.47534.9046-4.5818
2003Q11.46535.8661.69422.05435.0036-5.00311.46165.86691.72190.62535.0096-4.93141.46335.86651.70931.27515.0068-4.9642
2003Q21.63756.16531.47321.72385.0462-4.76041.8146.12881.52910.50765.0875-4.69531.73276.14561.49961.27215.0678-4.7351
2003Q32.76796.14241.36192.0095.2133-4.64473.11786.05111.44811.44825.2725-4.67182.92366.10011.41691.03625.2427-4.6241
2003Q43.49475.90071.40012.07735.3513-4.44634.00265.75011.4981.68465.4239-4.48753.82795.81091.47721.01565.4082-4.4135
2004Q13.64215.82391.73272.57995.4205-4.72744.25655.62391.81722.26355.4974-4.7884.13715.67811.84131.02235.4978-4.7108
2004Q23.38165.81031.96852.89055.6149-5.31553.8775.57462.04492.57385.6982-5.39014.04745.58212.11681.02925.7359-5.2997
2004Q32.18965.75522.00612.91185.6698-5.27322.56885.49282.07372.58935.76-5.34153.08395.42662.18051.46185.829-5.3241
2004Q42.0675.81032.03042.99775.6802-5.79032.34385.52832.10632.76895.7765-5.86213.05135.38032.22871.99695.8679-5.9097
2005Q12.28145.79072.15113.29075.7267-5.48752.51045.49282.23113.21485.8271-5.56133.35185.26582.34332.53485.9358-5.6374
2005Q22.06385.71492.05953.0125.8831-5.49792.25995.40712.14122.80715.9863-5.56263.05985.10982.22973.02976.1076-5.7222
2005Q32.3095.61351.99773.00416.0012-5.54262.50035.29432.07812.91376.1095-5.61163.08554.96272.1353.56836.221-5.8184
2005Q42.23775.5812.23343.35836.048-6.24212.40275.25582.31863.28656.1558-6.31852.72694.9232.33844.11736.2549-6.498
2006Q12.8655.33252.04063.48115.9888-5.78553.0264.99952.12093.8346.0925-5.87583.04634.69722.11234.62076.1694-6.0273
2006Q23.1655.24162.24583.76285.7353-5.8413.25114.91792.3234.03125.8201-5.93342.97864.66442.29435.10075.8769-6.0558
2006Q32.70045.13332.43053.86295.4119-6.22592.70274.8252.50653.91435.4858-6.2752.22944.63922.45385.46315.5131-6.3864
2006Q43.18884.80142.2963.87855.1459-5.43123.13664.51112.3714.09795.2093-5.47692.44724.41692.30395.46315.2023-5.5256
2007Q12.40584.74122.50244.16744.9118-5.77322.2624.47312.58874.33294.9631-5.80381.42434.48312.50385.47374.9292-5.7728
2007Q22.98374.63682.22113.97624.697-5.49492.86134.38662.3074.33364.7378-5.51991.86324.50792.21545.46674.68-5.4448
2007Q34.01194.64712.21184.24874.3925-4.98433.8434.42362.29624.81044.4163-5.02512.73944.65652.21575.27964.3414-4.8411
2007Q43.78264.63532.45594.66974.0082-4.92033.54414.44762.5335.18194.0163-4.93422.5314.76792.48174.66443.9418-4.6124
2008Q13.09744.71712.314.11773.6709-5.39782.79164.57292.38824.17933.668-5.3522.03794.93392.37913.27763.6041-4.9896
2008Q22.33525.11622.40544.11943.4654-5.67652.00115.00532.49634.01163.4595-5.58751.60025.36482.5482.13693.4089-5.1793
2008Q30.20545.82212.42053.39373.2555-5.4785-0.08465.73532.54372.55133.2503-5.32640.02626.03542.61951.98783.2217-5.0645
2008Q4-2.09726.69581.79941.40743.0079-4.5746-2.23156.60831.96330.12693.0146-4.3567-1.86196.84922.03570.51632.9819-4.3179
Return to Figure 9

Figure 10: Conditional Forecast for Federal Funds Rate (percent)

obsFederal Funds Rate + 2 s.d.Federal Funds Rate - 2 s.d.Federal Funds Rate + 1 s.d.Federal Funds Rate - 1 s.d.Federal Funds Rate
2000Q15.675494526565475.675494484418625.675494516028765.675494494955335.6754945054945
2000Q26.273296703294096.273296703294096.273296703294096.273296703294096.2732967032967
2000Q36.519999999997166.519999999997166.519999999997166.519999999997166.51999999999999
2000Q46.472934782605696.472934782605696.472934782605696.472934782605696.47293478260869
2001Q15.5967777988485.596777756701155.596777788311295.596777767237865.59677777777777
2001Q24.325384636454634.325384594307794.325384625917924.32538460484454.32538461538461
2001Q33.501304368895883.501304326749033.501304358359173.501304337285753.50130434782608
2001Q42.133804368895762.133804326748912.133804358359042.133804337285622.13380434782608
2002Q11.733111111107071.733111111107071.733111111107071.733111111107071.73311111111111
2002Q21.750000021069311.749999978922461.75000001053261.749999989459181.75
2002Q31.73989130434361.73989130434361.73989130434361.73989130434361.73989130434782
2002Q41.444456542808551.44445650066171.444456532271831.444456511198411.44445652173913
2003Q13.088064002684670.28378331964882.38699383192570.9848534904077691.24966666666666
2003Q22.57235859323251-0.7694853985861731.736897595277840.06597559936849891.24681318681318
2003Q32.36922265025331-1.288678292343881.45474741460401-0.3742030566945821.01673913043478
2003Q42.91226294401101-0.9265339339766941.952563724514080.0331652855202320.996630434782609
2004Q13.29177309067813-0.65546136022552.304964477952220.3313472525004071.00318681318681
2004Q24.16548759227770.1523939343582713.162214177797841.155667348838131.00989010989011
2004Q34.868505258804220.815023389254813.855134791416871.828393856642161.43141304347826
2004Q45.225090546010971.146694034819694.205491418213152.166293162617511.95021739130434
2005Q15.045625903734420.9517804381907324.022164537348491.975241804576652.469
2005Q25.343126903451551.239633376799894.317253521788632.265506758462812.94395604395604
2005Q36.171999704376742.062393057438085.144598042642073.089794719172753.45826086956521
2005Q46.048631436633231.935019822810965.020228533177662.963422726266523.97978260869565
2006Q16.488617858329032.372178406359965.459507995336763.401288269352234.45555555555555
2006Q27.24037016777063.121624391614396.210683723731554.151310835653444.90703296703296
2006Q36.64132625166382.520262037266175.611060198064393.550528090865585.2466304347826
2006Q46.743753957571942.619823732697755.712771401353393.650806288916295.2466304347826
2007Q16.471736103023622.343731709789565.439735004715113.375732808098085.25655555555555
2007Q26.123119765628591.988896580253395.089563969284793.022452376597195.25
2007Q35.603834690101421.45982399519574.567832016374992.495826668922135.07478260869565
2007Q45.179181075881671.019590307546434.139283383797862.059487999630244.49673913043478
2008Q14.425706146265780.2412030082384573.379580361758951.287328792745283.18098901098901
2008Q24.249057154624240.02495649689027733.193031990190751.080981661323772.0854945054945
2008Q34.507417239976380.2143748076112913.434156631885111.287635415702561.94141304347826
2008Q43.16350712012861-1.410297796123272.02005589106564-0.26684656706030.507934782608696
Return to Figure 10

Figure 11: Conditional Forecasts for Residential Investment Share and House Prices

obsPercent Change in Relative House Prices (annual rate) + 2.s.dPercent Change in Relative House Prices (annual rate) - 2.s.dPercent Change in Relative House Prices (annual rate) + 1.s.dPercent Change in Relative House Prices (annual rate) - 1.s.dPercent Change in Relative House Prices (annual rate)Residential Investment as a Share of GDP + 2.s.dResidential Investment as a Share of GDP - 2.s.dResidential Investment as a Share of GDP + 1.s.dResidential Investment as a Share of GDP - 1.s.dResidential Investment as a Share of GDP
2000Q12.50E-112.50E-112.50E-112.50E-1104.626656322200034.626656322200034.626656322200034.626656322200034.62665632220026
2000Q22.275323348135222.275323305988372.275323337598512.275323316525082.27532332703744.52783763790144.52783763790144.52783763790144.52783763790144.52783763790164
2000Q33.979478905765333.979478905765333.979478905765333.979478905765333.97947890574144.452668757217794.452668757217794.452668757217794.452668757217794.45266875721802
2000Q45.671945568863775.671945539061445.671945561413185.671945546512025.6719455539394.443905879727994.443905879727994.443905879727994.443905879727994.44390587972818
2001Q17.413762319324487.413762319324487.413762319324487.413762319324487.41376231930134.508259458834834.508259453566484.508259457517744.508259454883574.50825945620082
2001Q29.197881776277499.197881776277499.197881776277499.197881776277499.19788177625464.566324896177614.566324896177614.566324896177614.566324896177614.56632489617775
2001Q310.862448422904910.86244838075810.862448412368210.862448391294710.86244840180884.666236466874.666236459419424.666236465007354.666236461282064.66623646314482
2001Q412.309949022420512.309948992618212.309949014969912.309949000068812.30994900749694.628013991080424.628013985812074.628013989763334.628013987129164.6280139884463
2002Q113.858832611691413.858832611691413.858832611691413.858832611691413.85883261166924.684907569146774.684907569146774.684907569146774.684907569146774.6849075691468
2002Q215.328447944170915.328447944170915.328447944170915.328447944170915.32844794414914.77824999948124.77824999948124.77824999948124.77824999948124.77824999948122
2002Q317.56660323574417.56660323574417.56660323574417.56660323574417.56660323572264.779267374547724.779267374547724.779267374547724.779267374547724.77926737454777
2002Q419.866652445078719.866652445078719.866652445078719.866652445078719.86665244505764.904598218449824.904598213181474.904598217132734.904598214498564.90459821581569
2003Q122.251338127985120.163288555445621.729325734850220.685300948580521.75479585950245.116568421477194.758624086874515.027082337826524.848110170525185.00684813434374
2003Q223.948175938189420.493359181441123.084471749002321.357063370628223.28091414701725.262098230745754.760796484242425.136772794119924.886121920868255.06775885824241
2003Q325.37990400370420.967336024491124.276762008900822.070478019294325.18537437034135.293885405585814.707534826793815.147297760887814.854122471491815.24274382328096
2003Q426.75666025411121.648988433651925.479742298996222.925906388766727.41450360632935.322351659255474.67798258555495.161259390830334.839074853980045.40824009667438
2004Q127.800353961727522.152210882828226.388318192002723.56424665255330.57206110765425.289287433464254.601656810762155.117379777788724.773564466437675.4977832944517
2004Q228.967914579070922.875912012952827.444913937541424.398912654482334.06117083223535.297936913519514.576562957485035.117593424510894.756906446493655.73590257330108
2004Q330.154254206478223.68517683425828.536984863423125.302446177313137.05566199833095.333007556538314.584688221569265.145927722796054.771768055311525.82896428572922
2004Q431.258260112432424.462158646023329.559234745830126.161184012625640.07975288752865.357602177023724.587354921964875.165040363259014.779916735729595.86786661918455
2005Q132.491704913901125.40787257485430.720746829139327.178830659615844.11282699996335.36564939034464.577164601117485.168528193037824.774285798424265.93578627586055
2005Q233.773809442517726.433609871618331.938759549792928.268659764343147.63135623533195.34083625523024.536778999934975.139821941406394.737793313758786.1075969466649
2005Q335.19736877892627.625565971494933.304418077068229.518516673352750.39547977980085.322057115958364.504304670731515.117619004651654.708742782038226.2209553654032
2005Q436.658440839640728.873758731143634.712270312516430.819929258267952.59061066866515.364885873937154.534724592578165.157345553597414.742264912917916.25486716783752
2006Q138.016528188415430.031823208995736.020351943560532.027999453850653.99095301622615.286657037581724.444946754726395.076229466867894.655374325440226.16936817103435
2006Q239.482120314245331.304404464391537.437691351781933.34883342685553.856925679175.199032615280214.34634118409684.985859757484364.559514041892665.87691076953413
2006Q341.034796418984632.665272638790638.942415473936134.757653583839152.94967352068375.118645965938784.255352935705954.902822708380574.471176193264155.51314124304284
2006Q442.589220939766734.023442665810740.447776371277736.164887234299752.99264550995575.030430605186624.156796200266034.812022003956474.375204801496175.20227222018269
2007Q144.064941352581935.293162287136441.871996586220537.486107053497850.44853170305644.973994270714944.09018653996864.753042338028354.311138472655184.92922871015223
2007Q245.596379056837836.604116769030343.348313484885938.852182340982248.27984569811864.957139585772214.063206189912784.733656236807354.286689538877644.68004293994908
2007Q346.775793388191337.544688370972644.468017133886639.852464625277345.43911014649934.884441374900223.980204031088484.658382038947294.206263367041424.34139382095886
2007Q447.586521490094238.096143120857145.21392689778540.468737713166441.23767140030334.707833701184993.792707413528344.479052129270834.02148898544253.94175896366146
2008Q147.996163590739938.229331420135145.554455548088740.671039462786335.29065602633024.565889499423.638801233652744.334117432978183.870573300094553.60414694481141
2008Q247.843735843547837.799989355594745.332799221559540.310925977582930.14302933635114.415084961709083.475056466488724.180077837903993.710063590293813.40887073405738
2008Q347.498064886114837.206925425772444.925280021029239.77971029085825.62746073311244.231162915875323.279304607243873.993198338717463.517269184401733.22167049754487
2008Q447.022381000082336.496683714021444.390956678567139.128108035536618.72599423042094.09820463595033.117132898653263.852936701626043.362400832977522.98194075638024
 3.64881331866219 21.8928799119732       
Return to Figure 11

Figure 12: Monetary Policy and House Prices in the Advanced Economies

 Average Taylor rule residuals (2002:Q1-2006:Q3)Change in real house prices (2001:Q4-2006:Q3)
AUS-0.74689895836.86542681
AUT-1.451886895-3.304606502
BEL-1.72820013252.26687654
CAN-2.18767733740.65607588
CHE-1.6125970217.955787803
DEN-1.53699546854.6999224
DEU-0.698262242-13.46903937
ESP-3.51495542172.22954942
FIN0.00780671636.1344025
FRA-1.46019292160.79750998
GBR-0.07384294254.89628006
GRC-4.05063031627.07284383
IRL-3.48693578968.71601682
ITA-1.94539572131.97773894
JPN-0.404205416-20.15857215
NOR-0.25722731132.63434675
NLD-1.34190118911.13349463
NZL-0.09898599569.91819445
SWE-0.36228808441.85135791
USA-2.45295563727.91317547
Return to Figure 12

Figure 13: Monetary Policy and Residential Investment in the Advanced Economies

 Average Taylor rule residuals
(2002:Q1-2006:Q3)
Average quarterly percentage point
change in residential investment
as a share of GDP
(2002:Q1-2006:Q3)
AUS-0.7468989580.018886763
AUT-1.451886895-0.015017263
BEL-1.7282001320.075777963
CAN-2.1876773370.076047595
CHE-1.6125970210.016494237
DEN-1.5369954680.140424168
DEU-0.698262242-0.027316911
ESP-3.5149554210.141747953
FIN0.0078067160.057793995
FRA-1.4601929210.064903926
GBR-0.0738429420.096384279
GRC-4.0506303160.101769868
IRL-3.4869357890.306374511
ITA-1.9453957210.044765426
JPN-0.404205416-0.005824258
NOR-0.2572273110.027437432
NLD-1.3419011890.013177226
NZL-0.0989859950.072956947
SWE-0.3622880840.064644158
USA-2.4529556370.047305042
Return to Figure 13

Figure 14: MBS and Portfolio Outstanding

Year Mortgages
Outstanding
MBS Outstanding
Total
($billions)
MBS Outstanding
FHA/VA
($billions)
MBS Outstanding
F&F
($billions)
MBS Outstanding
Non-Agency
($billions)
MBS Outstanding
Portfolio
($billions)
199026151067401611551548
199127821247425725971535
1992294714084208461421539
1993310615194149371681587
19943283164045110061831643
19953451174447210781941707
19963675190250611802151773
19973910204953712592541860
19984258230153714423221957
19994674260258216663532072
20005110300161220123782109
20015681342859123744632252
20026438382553827445442612
20037217443347432936662784
200482524848441335910493404
200593635495405346816223868
2006104236318410376721414105
2007111126984443436821724129
2008110047142597469218533862
2009109517261699488116803690
Return to Figure 14

Figure 15: Applications for Adjustable-Rate Mortgages as a Share of All Mortgage Applications

 ARM Share
Actual
ARM Share
Forecast
ARM Share
Predicted
ARM Share
Standard Error
1996M0113.079805 12.71589643783393.03126522925891
1996M0214.544269 14.51295486978753.00183143036622
1996M0317.839366 20.93270399379052.96061757370851
1996M0420.44715 24.07877918789082.97049359963912
1996M0522.537966 25.07463181589912.96805576528679
1996M0623.764322 27.28975833556422.97439582492207
1996M0723.234089 26.94488800100792.96306133801099
1996M0822.754612 23.43572671370992.93589677158625
1996M0924.904013 26.37609278481852.9643724839935
1996M1023.624819 22.18109883151792.94025540151986
1996M1121.771795 18.91286977973022.92355733085551
1996M1222.470825 19.51451700619972.92344669158705
1997M0122.628433 22.35459623906982.94343873629205
1997M0221.2425 19.55743899133062.93191829497775
1997M0322.316158 22.81003675651982.94307213737446
1997M0421.894698 23.7240145989512.95331497128381
1997M0520.478572 21.40445530158772.94070462009214
1997M0620.121022 18.21475623144162.93788684891032
1997M0716.383255 16.16750262673942.92967424617966
1997M0817.054574 16.83824750406352.93103350183303
1997M0916.996354 15.15811433804812.93517028908233
1997M1014.71124 14.10591773930562.92859888642184
1997M1113.076434 13.59005395965272.92881355123655
1997M1212.064678 12.0702781090622.93769207879732
1998M017.743208 10.00868369336842.9430238452218
1998M028.121093 10.72452082209672.93505518162544
1998M038.744858 11.41836702557232.93129541758768
1998M049.19329 12.01693588704442.92821138743767
1998M058.697547 11.20164302847632.93393435369457
1998M069.461102 9.790832221201072.94915372927751
1998M078.23308399999999 9.372982587819482.94907143932286
1998M088.41183799999999 9.069048890744152.95035780144253
1998M097.25322 6.671072761115442.9740371029121
1998M108.218234 7.743594030572922.95834675326359
1998M118.65232999999999 9.574752722717272.97227903347139
1998M127.666664 8.871144673853273.01989850219498
1999M018.189236 8.84114152752792.99272055892346
1999M029.317159 9.186391611740852.97191503537242
1999M0310.361752 11.13008204794662.94558329655865
1999M0411.272452 10.13207238582012.93458196621776
1999M0513.021001 13.47423034383772.9147890319733
1999M0617.259132 18.76303163498492.9257227039564
1999M0718.910925 18.56970068782962.90240592007941
1999M0823.518328 21.81470845535492.92393390781248
1999M0925.693517 19.4379462712772.90455803033602
1999M1025.680123 20.06199637957212.91863135488746
1999M1126.386255 17.8500336360312.91163116883976
1999M1228.844877 19.67597579162382.9274544975619
2000M0130.015858 23.33410809359052.95545792003327
2000M0228.972097 24.90254766265342.97708303189929
2000M0326.361858 24.18248075016362.99498236755237
2000M0423.954195 23.31107011711133.01537584064634
2000M0526.248259 27.45124678042563.064202824345
2000M0618.455937 21.67972338392582.99334954818551
2000M0716.87235 20.14159219322572.98592667916481
2000M0815.608074 18.60907476447413.00636946878511
2000M0915.158018 16.76621821630622.98942134775077
2000M1013.942894 15.94327343840473.00476864209003
2000M1112.989557 15.43134356151163.03071695937993
2000M1213.112682 9.659976387083823.0589241179064
2001M0110.761641 6.640584761362053.10047125996746
2001M028.573582 8.746360708292833.00282704208962
2001M039.290105 8.079104296777333.02416146545692
2001M049.181098 11.25192062043423.00120454763478
2001M059.323423 13.7675114835342.95780585347856
2001M0610.507086 14.2787406576992.93673402624507
2001M0711.284861 14.11493409189142.91738316583523
2001M0812.096452 11.25618517776712.95190285272962
2001M0910.796066 10.12859441218322.99635408445756
2001M108.94331299999999 10.22449381312752.97659213830802
2001M119.409177 12.61650625897962.97658587306437
2001M1213.101008 17.44278025693373.0313136934503
2002M0115.460471 15.61536092662433.06818789031268
2002M0214.553859 15.15439561925173.00247027485434
2002M0315.416436 18.91279398961783.01105253138105
2002M0415.753292 17.06791229857272.98733556778273
2002M0516.825091 16.08635237550862.96929086402023
2002M0618.149853 14.86458805778772.95797403380611
2002M0718.274222 13.32395450819342.97058423683743
2002M0814.186841 11.9885017667243.00401263746986
2002M0912.27097 11.64108635157383.12616472440334
2002M1013.790799 12.43069515864143.11829600382328
2002M1113.191734 12.50914299777183.12723120745244
2002M1213.01958711.7235411.723544790223.12276978843781
2003M0113.25510811.4201669165725 3.15308120909868
2003M0213.37511.0219982478873 3.2176170766046
2003M0313.19081310.6026236010974 3.26439090653716
2003M0414.5152810.673536457158 3.22790641631655
2003M0512.9426617.04332760417018 3.3630421407164
2003M0614.2648435.84317392478112 3.45677634504091
2003M0717.87845812.0588977826481 3.26540666911635
2003M0823.23945717.3960324874595 3.18231084660663
2003M0922.55186614.3619001550483 3.2583478206488
2003M1025.55636414.4246376292425 3.30753259241739
2003M1127.03826614.1630265912641 3.3415222754315
2003M1229.20129213.0735382525923 3.35352667130848
2004M0127.09890112.3030523770917 3.48514455075596
2004M0227.424213999999912.1020383198924 3.60954917766787
2004M0327.99552611.1923987679257 3.8128713628161
2004M0431.31275116.494451425574 3.75008731342423
2004M0534.60308521.2303065872898 3.8162170647973
2004M0634.18917721.3990927460212 3.98548248055222
2004M0732.512020999999918.3516575131917 4.09262926593908
2004M0833.18683416.1827490248116 4.19287805348446
2004M0933.05336416.2482233150405 4.46844796060957
2004M1034.767795999999915.9403937658637 4.58630335085212
2004M1133.86777716.5486031860151 4.77858813326903
2004M1233.8493115.3806754949988 4.61687885333231
2005M0132.40483417.8115847690435 5.39199500246156
2005M0230.79346118.0868551250164 5.71264591332354
2005M0333.911876999999922.3581275550915 5.90438020602944
2005M0434.832971999999921.1617534088426 6.06321332557738
2005M0534.00917419.5703053860838 6.25301544986685
2005M0630.68508818.6874107724424 6.45544587269637
2005M0728.66061819.7920301773454 6.50147072165274
2005M0828.21729320.4998961995142 6.57546235107275
2005M0928.99078820.4668016285272 6.64258688723769
2005M1029.57653323.291381312535 6.62809404605753
2005M1132.90183125.0099330571606 6.65267155494588
2005M1231.81345624.0943870340709 6.68142024912737
2006M0129.76496722.2994988115987 6.68385379417903
2006M0228.895213999999922.7950879315468 6.69331365079323
2006M0328.52501423.3053205821803 6.60074721813531
2006M0428.48627923.7265448284699 6.37627526460466
2006M0529.90495824.250451456475 6.3308163349743
2006M0629.72193125.169316865108 6.35432194426121
2006M0728.44026525.1885686717485 6.35874986085685
2006M0826.797222.137239824005 6.30044579810475
2006M0926.46883220.8368513338466 6.29561648786697
2006M1026.34527920.2403980540173 6.26197429801587
2006M1125.01087618.7536703049066 6.28467903278397
2006M1222.84329217.4265953367122 6.1888633979474
2007M0121.07083318.4544713522865 6.10517730362427
2007M0221.25489917.8794028354166 5.96843028091844
2007M0320.56685416.0739041517581 5.78520942096857
2007M0418.20979816.0231411037726 5.6903521101368
2007M0517.76558416.6547958370667 5.53772097833637
2007M0620.04952419.9812410023852 5.2470314424518
2007M0721.38685620.1673681640918 5.13991863551242
2007M0817.32873816.184730037235 4.78118288167145
2007M0913.00453813.3011717819172 4.51059515433143
2007M1014.02803712.4042564536842 4.21380326860771
2007M1114.3831579.41557344906682 3.92869562133275
2007M129.8285627.15168438310987 3.69944795849964
Return to Figure 15

Figure A1: Comparison of Policy Rates and Taylor Rules In the Advanced Foreign Economies

Datespolicyrate_altaylor_rule_alpolicyrate_autaylor_rule_aupolicyrate_betaylor_rule_bepolicyrate_cataylor_rule_capolicyrate_dntaylor_rule_dnpolicyrate_fntaylor_rule_fnpolicyrate_frtaylor_rule_frpolicyrate_getaylor_rule_gepolicyrate_grtaylor_rule_grpolicyrate_irtaylor_rule_irpolicyrate_ittaylor_rule_itpolicyrate_jataylor_rule_japolicyrate_nltaylor_rule_nlpolicyrate_notaylor_rule_nopolicyrate_nztaylor_rule_nzpolicyrate_pttaylor_rule_ptpolicyrate_sdtaylor_rule_sdpolicyrate_sptaylor_rule_sppolicyrate_sztaylor_rule_szpolicyrate_uktaylor_rule_ukpolicyrate_ustaylor_rule_us
99q14.753.8566832.30504633.0205054.9972223.7698393.3444454.10931332.72300132.0210731.623926126.20442934.70444732.9979520.5-0.512119934.9431117.4888893.7064074.851.82416736.1011063.2777781.78843434.77099411.5973125.7055554.5152864.754.866072
99q24.753.6315182.5439562.2599042.5439562.8301244.5906594.9804742.7939564.2950932.5439563.2421092.5439562.2902632.5439561.819431125.0718092.5439564.4473552.5439563.1741840.5-0.25831592.5439565.0070516.560444.0078174.51.4214492.5439565.4170952.91.8905532.5439565.3451190.51.8338615.2115384.2888754.7527475.380947
99q34.754.3427572.52.4930562.53.1084664.55.9012862.754.9018322.53.0544082.52.5894582.52.361328125.8299672.54.596912.53.782930.50.09524192.55.1725335.9565224.3035444.51.6978862.54.5631442.92.7641282.55.6493540.52.9844225.06254.1794575.1032615.765961
99q44.9103264.5771122.8097833.2005982.8097834.2682314.6222836.2850632.9048915.9885932.8097834.0919582.8097833.4279282.8097832.96400911.255.2043732.8097835.80692.8097834.7224640.5-1.1035192.8097835.0254225.55.3252794.7445653.1389212.8097834.2459793.0711963.5436972.8097836.0680630.54.116995.4076094.0677545.3756.441793
00q15.3241766.0218773.1978024.0103383.1978024.7871424.9368136.6753.1978026.3030423.1978025.6943063.1978024.254633.1978024.1456639.5833336.2432743.1978028.0020433.1978025.2866560.50.30202033.1978024.6789665.55.8973735.2939565.194513.1978024.3735013.5357143.0453273.1978026.5816622.064.1074725.8571433.6238285.6923076.994404
00q25.9010996.5930933.7967034.7277343.7967035.2384865.4972536.2239053.7967036.0312233.7967035.6599863.7967034.1290233.7967033.6791278.5833335.800083.79670310.1743.7967035.4691480.50.38110523.7967034.7573795.8049455.0418966.1978025.1744163.7967034.9124933.753.2994913.7967036.6050652.6333334.13193863.3159946.2527477.250149
00q36.16304310.591034.3315225.7135934.3315226.1154565.756.5502964.3315225.316454.3315226.4115364.3315224.4232944.3315223.66998385.9031724.33152211.075274.3315225.7866330.50.16110454.3315224.9637296.5597836.2578226.56.4553414.3315226.6688043.752.9531194.3315227.1527993.0566674.0952663.3759696.56.998051
00q46.259.4657534.7364135.4690354.7364135.8849745.756.6053534.7364135.1763354.7364136.311874.7364134.4505534.7364133.9548336.257.4589684.73641312.083214.7364135.9466250.50.64826664.7364135.38956975.4539316.57.815164.7364136.720843.801632.8374354.7364137.5484093.1033333.88621963.3984166.56.809063
01q15.8861119.9045494.755.0933394.754.4088695.4166675.853354.754.3496044.755.5255644.753.3894384.754.0617054.756.5969854.759.8316354.756.1814880.41038960.60343714.756.89309576.2448916.456.1940054.757.87174843.1948144.757.3771713.4722222.9706675.8555563.3479725.6111116.392508
01q25.01648310.027714.609895.2324124.609895.362574.7032976.7313144.6181324.2172484.609895.3531994.609894.0968664.609894.9746034.609897.0612284.609899.0039364.609895.9148970.1-0.26467784.609897.46537176.839955.9230777.0492164.609897.73479744.618494.609897.3249343.253.2977575.3681324.1063134.3241766.158753
01q34.9293485.0144864.3451094.3785194.3451094.2796434.1255.0462824.3451094.400114.3451094.2421284.3451093.5808774.3451094.0624714.3451097.2556054.3451097.2296054.3451095.1799120.1-0.93051874.3451096.9129875.0235185.6847835.5770714.3451096.8719054.1576094.7631444.3451096.8079333.1413042.2557435.051634.0527183.56254.861613
01q44.4320656.1011173.4619573.7238813.4619573.6258182.739132.6935113.4619573.7652973.4619572.8479333.4619572.6563483.4619573.3419573.4619575.7876323.4619576.0998343.4619574.3816940.1-1.4824683.4619576.4182286.8967394.1547614.989135.0806793.4619576.5977063.754.4305853.4619575.169922.114131.4147284.2146743.2295412.1440223.711818
02q14.255.9126273.253.5969223.254.7591992.0388893.6603953.254.0226943.253.0754273.253.8469013.253.5707183.257.0944453.258.0156523.254.3643940.1-1.7757893.255.6806486.52.0625274.7833336.1076943.255.4798143.7833334.5663893.254.7994861.751.61444644.0392911.752.926176
02q24.469785.924153.253.3549183.252.768072.2829673.3298553.254.0859873.252.5282993.253.1512123.252.4797353.256.3528593.257.5999223.254.2094070.1-0.64246623.255.1239396.52.3687015.3351656.3747163.255.6596184.1648353.8578053.255.8071491.420331.71160143.0318411.753.16432
02q34.756.4963063.253.1714293.252.7883122.7092394.9030013.253.9490763.252.3307673.253.2927993.252.4027183.256.5572423.257.6128333.254.3413320.1-0.2718833.254.9359746.9836962.7948455.7445656.5624283.255.329144.253.4828943.254.5080120.88586960.974601543.2067061.753.675577
02q44.756.0408853.1086963.2040353.1086962.6123282.757.1224863.1086964.2585933.1086962.959783.1086963.6822263.1086962.3258073.1086966.6617943.1086968.0321523.1086964.8675550.10.08045043.1086964.2580296.8913044.2532865.757.1857363.1086965.5242354.0788043.9513933.1086966.5865990.751.91352543.9278611.4456524.591061
03q14.756.7556492.6805563.1709692.6805562.977262.8277788.0655512.6805564.8217262.6805562.6438642.6805564.1174952.6805562.027282.6805567.5568142.6805567.4303892.6805564.6057970.10.25310722.6805563.7069075.9777787.5016025.756.5607222.6805565.7601393.7138895.2830992.6805566.690430.64166671.7408713.853.9383671.255.70893
03q24.755.4513852.3626372.298472.3626372.693483.2115395.2286132.3626373.4615382.3626371.731142.3626373.3241212.3626371.5107992.3626377.378382.3626376.1399722.3626374.4010890.10.47385682.3626373.0569395.1153854.2501645.4917584.5181372.3626375.1217523.390113.3174212.3626374.9334850.3751.0529153.753.7725831.2335164.514749
03q34.755.62456322.49991323.2812062.9619574.15818523.07118721.56659723.58791522.07663626.83196224.72217924.6233670.10.707067423.2903473.3967394.0073575.06254.62699924.3562532.7717393.16273325.3016040.3751.2150343.5244574.04628515.431705
03q44.9836965.56293222.52118123.4475872.753.86806223.41281221.43561824.07592722.42475726.54608924.95982624.4553030.10.981576123.276482.4619572.85177554.59108623.937392.752.82197524.8059540.3751.5571853.6521744.06087315.127111
04q15.254.77410422.95053823.1781682.469782.72088322.5481120.98840823.58788822.30877625.91340623.2271124.297060.11.48309522.644672.0219780.08908295.1730775.05369123.8827342.6126371.24490924.3457840.3751.3160613.9038463.86334914.864151
04q25.255.33609624.14491924.6853782.0329674.96731222.81422620.953186524.64210523.56807626.01040523.01095624.4701570.10.812192223.0934481.753.4246435.4807696.13370524.5697332.0329671.9658725.6112010.39423082.7330574.2115384.2320671.0027476.422172
04q35.255.03250724.62164324.7210642.06254.85732323.01382621.81124924.48598623.48219225.78162924.26824324.411830.11.07244822.6688391.753.03375.9836966.01819224.27612822.15645326.2222430.54076092.4203194.6548913.8225881.4184786.378093
04q45.255.29902725.53978325.1504712.4510875.28823923.66311322.42287224.35496423.81968126.08681325.08666423.8591040.11.64870622.9660761.753.3359926.426635.98199924.16911622.04433826.2232170.753.2668134.754.1007961.9402177.305872
05q15.3333334.99964125.88013925.1161482.54.83364322.80329421.93106923.71084823.31804525.98587324.45534823.6662750.10.619835923.4528891.753.1412216.5611115.94912323.91298821.69022926.1478010.753.2782064.754.4967772.4388896.773226
05q25.55.47639725.39586925.4227272.54.56734724.82389322.40086623.63530723.03172225.93967225.17467223.7955490.10.602996923.5889171.754.4421876.756.47966924.0200171.9505491.73559125.9401550.753.1897854.754.8116422.9148356.555271
05q35.56.24520625.07341726.2804542.5652175.77585324.96850322.59397324.06524223.84169526.84743924.95292724.1578130.10.37348824.18878324.6283956.757.03836624.7528141.52.29463526.4672020.753.5139094.5923915.4169663.4239137.975523
05q45.55.863822.0706524.172992.0706525.4280923.0244575.3373052.0815224.5946872.0706522.3311092.0706523.7155782.0706523.7710242.0706526.6151862.0706525.1497782.0706524.3190060.1-0.40404012.0706524.2183192.1603264.1812326.9945656.2438942.0706525.0586421.52.694732.0706526.6818220.79619563.5041114.55.0281943.9673917.724439
06q15.55.980182.3166673.4541262.3166674.928873.5055565.6671392.3305554.8681552.3166673.1234822.3166674.0018372.3166674.0098742.3166676.0579272.3166676.542122.3166674.5073470.10.67397812.3166673.2836352.2916674.8281847.256.6660952.3166675.9361861.7694442.9912562.3166677.4188051.0444443.7412324.55.0223714.4277787.829498
06q25.6620887.389672.5439564.1762392.5439564.586064.0384625.7879262.560445.3380952.5439564.3065912.5439564.383792.5439564.8583482.5439566.0842252.5439567.3234492.5439564.7242340.11.2495442.5439564.0824422.5824175.0274937.257.6022152.5439566.9550062.0274724.0922782.5439567.2720781.2939563.7475544.55.461584.8983528.112964
06q35.9130437.3878732.8940224.0855362.8940223.7381164.254.3591462.9076094.4654142.8940224.444562.8940223.808712.8940224.1662832.8940226.3869982.8940228.2747722.8940224.6130850.35760871.8993472.8940223.7060272.8722835.170467.256.9734382.8940225.7551842.3179354.1431922.8940226.7483141.5461963.7117654.6603265.6725035.256.966357
06q46.1467396.4794413.2744573.8756333.2744573.7027614.253.7445763.301633.8896543.2744574.8981993.2744573.3103353.2744574.1558483.2744575.6542963.2744577.1894293.2744574.3555180.41.5093773.2744573.167053.2119575.3602347.255.925113.2744575.0938252.698373.8701933.2744575.3665731.7989132.3854184.8940226.2035235.254.755378
07q16.255.5694523.554.1635723.554.2012334.254.5784063.5638894.5052623.555.5385683.553.037143.554.7256053.555.3661443.5510.300943.554.1308750.55166671.1843243.554.1320163.7277783.1339237.3166675.6863373.555.2024653.1083334.2831163.555.0873612.0472221.8793015.2222226.4574755.255.233074
07q26.254.9994723.7994514.4425373.7994513.5655324.255.2448253.8159343.4230863.7994515.5211263.7994513.0729383.7994514.8308273.7994515.1050163.7994519.0315713.7994513.7834510.750.7950183.7994514.4067174.0934072.0355567.7472535.026333.7994515.3451433.2609894.0729383.7994514.999832.2967032.5258175.3928576.1293335.255.823235
07q36.3967394.77803544.40864943.4125114.4755435.07923943.22707145.46519743.27733745.2119245.21213348.26545243.7482070.750.55540643.8727694.635872.1008878.1820654.39698544.7197193.551634.05421244.8581482.5489132.6774965.739134.9610275.1793485.631684
07q46.6494576.39652246.18148645.4321264.4239135.29327244.32230645.5575544.8120346.17721246.53694247.82037444.4980830.751.58897544.7431925.051633.946768.256.38221745.4903653.9184785.69135147.2116482.754.2695315.6793485.3432014.5244577.807984
08q16.9752758.18546946.26247646.9508063.9038464.05244544.9689246.85839145.64307646.27552147.45429347.12634745.6806720.752.30531244.9591785.257.0057978.256.22184845.6097894.1126385.56743347.5708682.755.2015875.3516485.6360263.2170337.914725
08q27.258.37764846.49502848.6792213.1153854.79401345.79332147.05720845.84302645.72561448.28696946.58207946.1697870.752.29608144.8279275.450556.2040728.256.89426845.583644.256.1443247.6730482.755.2990195.0247256.8681712.079678.175697
08q37.1739138.8074374.2282616.4828394.2282619.28286236.3933254.2418486.5690734.2282617.6107324.2282615.6853494.2282615.5368374.2282618.0585164.2282616.4776884.2282616.5311760.753.0122874.2282615.8116015.757.92237.9538048.1925954.2282615.5995854.5353266.6877574.2282617.8100962.755.44057958.56425829.399769
08q45.296196ND3.375ND3.375ND2.154891ND4.035326ND3.375ND3.375ND3.375ND3.375ND3.375ND3.375ND0.5532609ND3.375ND4.722826ND6.282609ND3.375ND3.559783ND3.375ND1.644022ND3.3206526.4769881.0380433.242958
Return to Figure A1

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