Federal Reserve Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

Release Date: September 29, 2023

The Federal Reserve Board has re-estimated seasonal factors for new motor vehicle sales, using data through April 2023. These factors are estimated once per year using X13-ARIMA. The factors will be revised again in the summer of 2024.

The Federal Reserve Board provides seasonal factors for sales of cars and light trucks to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for use in the National Income and Product Accounts. The BEA has posted on their website seasonal factors for motor vehicle sales from January 1967 (January 1976 for foreign light trucks) through June 2024. These factors are available for download here. A Technical Q&A with details on the calculation of the seasonal factors for light vehicles is available here.

The table below shows the Federal Reserve seasonal factors for monthly motor vehicle sales. For cars and light trucks, these are essentially the same seasonal factors that are available from the BEA extended through December 2025. For completed calendar years, the seasonal factors posted by the BEA may vary slightly from the factors posted here, reflecting small adjustments to align annual totals of the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data. The extended projections of the seasonal factors are prone to larger revisions each year than are the seasonal factor projections for months closer to the end of the data sample. A comma-delimited text file containing the monthly seasonal factors is available for download here (CSV).

Monthly Seasonal Factors for Motor Vehicle Sales

 
 
Domestic
Autos
Foreign
Autos
Domestic
Light Trucks
Foreign
Light Trucks
Domestic
Heavy Trucks
Foreign
Heavy Trucks
Jan-2018  83.03  79.86  82.47  84.49  88.80  64.62
Feb-2018  94.83  86.95  91.01  91.50  87.29  76.84
Mar-2018 121.70 114.13 112.19 116.13 105.16 104.45
Apr-2018  97.86  98.11  94.89  90.79  97.41  92.17
May-2018 113.90 110.88 108.81 108.09 102.12 111.34
Jun-2018 110.72 111.45 106.54 105.43 103.57 118.42
Jul-2018  94.51 100.93  95.46  96.12  97.91  91.86
Aug-2018 102.45 107.76 103.78 109.68 105.33 114.80
Sep-2018  99.39  96.84 100.88  97.63  97.79  91.23
Oct-2018  92.02  91.99  94.95  92.89 108.08  97.19
Nov-2018  91.05  95.54  95.90  95.97  94.17  90.77
Dec-2018 100.52 107.16 114.91 112.50 112.66 141.49
Jan-2019  83.93  79.80  83.13  84.74  88.55  67.67
Feb-2019  94.44  86.74  91.15  91.92  87.37  78.76
Mar-2019 117.69 111.97 108.87 113.67 102.08 101.55
Apr-2019 100.79  99.73  98.17  93.01  99.67  92.70
May-2019 112.20 112.40 107.53 109.23 101.51 114.23
Jun-2019 108.84 108.50 103.92 103.03 100.51 110.94
Jul-2019  96.71 102.60  98.08  97.66 101.34  96.38
Aug-2019 111.23 114.05 114.13 116.65 102.33 109.03
Sep-2019  88.60  89.99  88.64  89.05 100.84  94.11
Oct-2019  95.91  93.32  98.41  94.90 107.68  98.92
Nov-2019  95.31  99.79  99.05 100.34  92.41  86.70
Dec-2019  96.34 102.54 110.81 106.34 115.37 142.91
Jan-2020  83.11  81.59  82.93  85.64  88.34  71.89
Feb-2020 100.91  91.47  97.35  99.33  89.16  80.76
Mar-2020 110.33 104.18 102.96 105.70 105.09 103.13
Apr-2020 105.64 100.64 101.97  96.14 100.02  94.93
May-2020 112.50 115.40 107.54 112.68  95.26 104.41
Jun-2020 103.58 104.83 100.04  97.62 105.88 115.61
Jul-2020  98.72 104.94  99.98  98.99 100.32  99.53
Aug-2020 100.28 107.60 101.15 108.98 100.06 103.61
Sep-2020  97.88  95.35 100.34  95.08 104.14  97.26
Oct-2020 100.31  97.81 101.47  99.60 104.65  96.81
Nov-2020  87.96  91.83  90.88  90.86  92.90  84.83
Dec-2020 104.47 111.12 120.23 116.03 119.73 149.81
Jan-2021  82.43  79.73  81.72  84.59  83.23  68.06
Feb-2021  93.64  86.55  91.30  93.02  87.36  81.85
Mar-2021 113.48 105.26 106.36 108.82 108.95 109.35
Apr-2021 105.27 101.38 101.58  96.12  98.58  92.41
May-2021 112.26 114.66 108.15 113.02  96.00 103.79
Jun-2021 104.24 105.06  99.97  98.06 105.62 115.75
Jul-2021 102.58 108.92 103.08 102.74  97.31  95.53
Aug-2021  94.94 104.10  97.22 103.07 101.92 105.64
Sep-2021  98.80  94.72 100.59  95.26 104.70  98.77
Oct-2021  97.89  96.72  98.65  97.59 102.14  93.28
Nov-2021  90.36  93.35  93.53  91.99  95.53  86.35
Dec-2021 101.67 108.73 116.29 113.07 119.62 150.52
Jan-2022  82.97  80.17  82.22  85.26  84.25  69.85
Feb-2022  93.33  86.59  91.35  93.52  87.12  83.69
Mar-2022 117.27 105.86 109.93 111.62 108.36 110.98
Apr-2022 110.28 105.51 105.50 101.65  96.15  86.83
May-2022 103.72 108.88 101.25 105.51  97.94 106.25
Jun-2022 107.75 106.52 102.88  99.79 105.64 116.67
Jul-2022  98.97 107.77  99.69  99.92  94.50  92.40
Aug-2022  97.20 106.38  99.88 105.62 105.57 111.37
Sep-2022  97.54  95.60  99.73  94.64 103.17  98.14
Oct-2022  96.93  94.04  96.77  95.78 103.65  92.40
Nov-2022  93.17  94.88  96.33  93.89  95.87  87.36
Dec-2022 100.57 108.30 115.55 111.58 116.21 139.64
Jan-2023  83.50  80.55  82.69  85.87  86.18  73.91
Feb-2023  93.17  86.78  91.56  93.84  87.01  86.15
Mar-2023 116.49 106.35 109.15 112.12 108.21 115.12
Apr-2023 109.36 102.41 103.77 100.04  93.64  80.62
May-2023 105.85 111.12 104.14 108.67 101.72 112.35
Jun-2023 106.45 107.63 101.74  98.98 104.07 113.76
Jul-2023  97.20 104.84  97.48  97.35  95.41  92.22
Aug-2023 100.05 107.97 102.75 107.72 104.85 112.31
Sep-2023 101.45  99.74 103.10  99.41 100.46  94.52
Oct-2023  92.75  90.67  93.71  91.02 106.08  94.52
Nov-2023  94.31  94.05  96.34  93.49  96.48  89.09
Dec-2023  96.90 106.70 111.48 108.58 112.79 131.15
Jan-2024  86.17  82.45  85.70  88.92  89.71  79.68
Feb-2024  95.92  87.98  94.69  96.12  90.65  92.33
Mar-2024 117.80 108.45 109.43 115.02 102.02 106.21
Apr-2024 105.10  98.78 100.61  95.42  98.70  83.06
May-2024 107.93 113.74 106.40 111.48 101.03 116.73
Jun-2024 108.99 109.00 102.81 101.75  99.20 102.88
Jul-2024  95.07 103.11  96.93  94.44 100.92  99.16
Aug-2024 108.44 115.62 112.31 115.09 101.37 109.65
Sep-2024  88.66  90.08  88.59  88.69 100.25  94.08
Oct-2024  98.82  93.32  99.98  95.66 109.87 100.24
Nov-2024  97.09  99.07  98.61  97.20  93.45  84.42
Dec-2024  94.00 101.11 108.31 103.06 116.50 131.54
Jan-2025  85.25  83.52  85.25  89.06  89.13  82.83
Feb-2025  92.63  86.79  91.92  94.40  86.86  88.70
Mar-2025 116.04 105.19 107.12 112.81 102.88 105.98
Apr-2025 108.77 100.74 104.09  98.44  98.74  83.81
May-2025 112.44 118.03 109.94 116.88  97.94 111.24
Jun-2025 101.49 103.13  96.26  94.49 101.97 105.39
Jul-2025  97.92 104.25 100.06  96.04 100.58  99.85
Aug-2025 104.77 114.44 108.72 112.49  98.52 104.69
Sep-2025  90.52  91.88  91.03  90.47 102.98  96.23
Oct-2025  98.40  94.13  99.41  96.18 109.48 103.28
Nov-2025  95.92  96.40  96.56  94.80  91.24  80.84
Dec-2025  95.26 103.85 110.36 104.84 121.01 138.74
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Last Update: September 29, 2023