skip to main navigation skip to secondary navigation skip to content
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
skip to content

TheEconomists

Image of Board Seal

Elmar Mertens

Principal Economist

Monetary Studies Section

Monetary Affairs


elmar.mertens@frb.gov
Education
  • Ph.D., Economics, University of Lausanne, 2007
  • Diplom, Economics / Finance and Capital Markets, University of St. Gallen, 2000
  • Current Research Topics

  • Trends and Cycles in Macro-Variables
  • Monetary Policy under Imperfect Information
    • Principal Economist

      Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    • 2015 - present
    • Senior Economist

      Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    • 2013 - 2015
    • Economist

      Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    • 2008 - 2013
    • Lecturer

      Study Center Gerzensee

    • 2007 - 2008
    • Consultant

      McKinsey & Company

    • 2000 - 2001
    • Trainee

      Deutsche Bank

    • 1994 - 1996
  • Mertens, Elmar (2016). "Managing Beliefs About Monetary Policy Under Discretion," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 48, no. 4, pp. 661-698.
  • Johannsen, Benjamin K., and Elmar Mertens (2016). "A Time Series Model of Interest Rates With the Effective Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-033. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • Benjamin K. Johannsen and Elmar Mertens (2016). "The Expected Real Interest Rate in the Long Run: Time Series Evidence with the Effective Lower Bound," FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 9.
  • Mertens, Elmar (Forthcoming). "Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation," Review of Economics and Statistics.
  • Mertens, Elmar, and James M. Nason (2015). "Inflation and Professional Forecast Dynamics: An Evaluation of Stickiness, Persistence, and Volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-06. Australian National University. Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis.
  • Garnier, Christine, Elmar Mertens, and Edward Nelson (2015). "Trend Inflation in Advanced Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 65-136.
  • Kurmann, André, and Elmar Mertens (2014). "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations: Comment," American Economic Review, vol. 104, no. 4, pp. 1439-1445.
  • Garnier, Christine, Elmar Mertens, and Edward Nelson (2013). "Trend Inflation in Advanced Economies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-74. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Kurmann, Andre, and Elmar Mertens (2013). "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations: Comment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-08. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Mertens, Elmar (2012). "Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs?" Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 36, no. 12, pp. 1831-1844.
  • Mertens, Elmar (2011). "Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-42. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Mertens, Elmar (2010). "Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Implementing Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-09. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Mertens, Elmar (2010). "Managing Beliefs About Monetary Policy Under Discretion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-11. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Mertens, Elmar (2010). "Structural Shocks and the Comovements between Output and Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-21. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Mertens, Elmar (2010). "Structural Shocks and the Comovements between Output and Interest Rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 34, no. 6, pp. 1171-1186.
  • Bacchetta, Philippe, Elmar Mertens, and Eric van Wincoop (2009). "Predictability in Financial Markets: What do Survey Expectations Tell Us?" Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 406-426.
  • Bacchetta, Philippe, Elmar Mertens, and Eric van Wincoop (2006). "Predictability in Financial Markets: What do Survey Expectations Tell Us?" CEPR Discussion Papers 5770. Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  • conference

    July 2015

    NBER Summer Insittute, Forecasting & Empirical Methods in Macroeconomics & Finance Workshop

    Inflation and Professional Forecast Dynamics: An Evaluation of Stickiness, Persistence, and Volatility

  • conference

    June 2014

    International Association for Applied Econometrics, London

    On the Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time

  • conference

    October 2013

    CIRANO-CIREQ Workshop on Data Revisions and Policy, Montreal

    On the Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time

  • conference

    May 2013

    System Committee on International Economic Analysis, Washington D.C.

    Trend Inflation in Advanced Economies

  • conference

    September 2012

    8th Dynare Conference, Swiss National Bank, Zurich

    Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion

  • conference

    September 2012

    31st CIRET Conference, Vienna

    Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation

  • conference

    July 2012

    NBER Summer Insittute, Forecasting & Empirical Methods in Macroeconomics & Finance Workshop

    Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation

  • discussion

    October 2012

    Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods , and Applications; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

    Discussion of Nason & Smith's "Reverse Filtering U.S. Inflation with Sticky Professional Forecasts"

  • conference

    June 2012

    Computing in Economics and Finance, Prague

    Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation

Awards

  • 2012

    Fundacao Getulio Vargas

    Isaac Kerstenetzky Award, Honorable Mention

Referee

  • American Economic Review
  • Review of Economics and Statistics
  • Journal of Monetary Economics
  • Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking
  • Journal of the European Economic Association
Skip stay connected section
Last update: September 19, 2016