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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2014-64

Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects

Stephanie Aaronson, Tomaz Cajner, Bruce Fallick, Felix Galbis-Reig, Christopher L. Smith, and William Wascher

Figure 1: Labor force Participation Rate Monthly Data

Year_Month Actual LFPR (right scale) Employment-to-population ratio (left scale)
1990M1 66.79 63.2
1990M2 66.68 63.16
1990M3 66.69 63.19
1990M4 66.56 62.96
1990M5 66.64 63.07
1990M6 66.42 62.93
1990M7 66.46 62.8
1990M8 66.54 62.74
1990M9 66.42 62.54
1990M10 66.41 62.48
1990M11 66.4 62.31
1990M12 66.38 62.23
1991M1 66.24 62.02
1991M2 66.23 61.89
1991M3 66.31 61.8
1991M4 66.42 61.99
1991M5 66.18 61.6
1991M6 66.21 61.66
1991M7 66.07 61.57
1991M8 66.01 61.47
1991M9 66.2 61.64
1991M10 66.13 61.52
1991M11 66.11 61.45
1991M12 66.04 61.24
1992M1 66.3 61.46
1992M2 66.23 61.31
1992M3 66.39 61.47
1992M4 66.46 61.57
1992M5 66.55 61.49
1992M6 66.68 61.46
1992M7 66.67 61.56
1992M8 66.63 61.56
1992M9 66.5 61.44
1992M10 66.18 61.32
1992M11 66.34 61.4
1992M12 66.34 61.41
1993M1 66.2 61.39
1993M2 66.18 61.45
1993M3 66.2 61.54
1993M4 66.14 61.46
1993M5 66.44 61.74
1993M6 66.46 61.78
1993M7 66.4 61.82
1993M8 66.45 61.96
1993M9 66.2 61.74
1993M10 66.3 61.82
1993M11 66.31 61.94
1993M12 66.37 62.04
1994M1 66.65 62.24
1994M2 66.64 62.26
1994M3 66.46 62.14
1994M4 66.52 62.28
1994M5 66.55 62.52
1994M6 66.38 62.35
1994M7 66.37 62.33
1994M8 66.62 62.6
1994M9 66.63 62.71
1994M10 66.73 62.86
1994M11 66.74 63.01
1994M12 66.72 63.07
1995M1 66.77 63.04
1995M2 66.76 63.13
1995M3 66.72 63.11
1995M4 66.91 63.06
1995M5 66.5 62.75
1995M6 66.49 62.75
1995M7 66.63 62.84
1995M8 66.57 62.8
1995M9 66.64 62.88
1995M10 66.63 62.95
1995M11 66.52 62.8
1995M12 66.42 62.7
1996M1 66.43 62.68
1996M2 66.55 62.89
1996M3 66.62 62.96
1996M4 66.67 62.97
1996M5 66.74 63.03
1996M6 66.7 63.16
1996M7 66.93 63.27
1996M8 66.74 63.32
1996M9 66.9 63.43
1996M10 67.03 63.54
1996M11 67.01 63.42
1996M12 67.01 63.41
1997M1 66.96 63.42
1997M2 66.9 63.39
1997M3 67.1 63.65
1997M4 67.11 63.72
1997M5 67.11 63.83
1997M6 67.1 63.75
1997M7 67.18 63.9
1997M8 67.18 63.93
1997M9 67.14 63.87
1997M10 67.05 63.89
1997M11 67.16 64.06
1997M12 67.2 64.03
1998M1 67.13 64.01
1998M2 67.08 64
1998M3 67.09 63.95
1998M4 66.99 64.09
1998M5 67.04 64.09
1998M6 67.02 63.99
1998M7 67.03 63.98
1998M8 66.95 63.94
1998M9 67.23 64.16
1998M10 67.15 64.1
1998M11 67.14 64.18
1998M12 67.21 64.29
1999M1 67.24 64.35
1999M2 67.18 64.22
1999M3 67.01 64.21
1999M4 67.05 64.16
1999M5 67.06 64.27
1999M6 67.1 64.24
1999M7 67.09 64.19
1999M8 67.02 64.21
1999M9 67.04 64.2
1999M10 67.04 64.27
1999M11 67.1 64.37
1999M12 67.12 64.42
2000M1 67.29 64.59
2000M2 67.33 64.56
2000M3 67.26 64.55
2000M4 67.33 64.74
2000M5 67.09 64.37
2000M6 67.11 64.45
2000M7 66.9 64.2
2000M8 66.93 64.19
2000M9 66.86 64.22
2000M10 66.83 64.24
2000M11 66.95 64.31
2000M12 67.02 64.39
2001M1 67.23 64.42
2001M2 67.12 64.27
2001M3 67.16 64.29
2001M4 66.92 64
2001M5 66.74 63.84
2001M6 66.69 63.68
2001M7 66.76 63.7
2001M8 66.51 63.24
2001M9 66.77 63.45
2001M10 66.74 63.17
2001M11 66.74 63.04
2001M12 66.71 62.89
2002M1 66.46 62.68
2002M2 66.76 62.97
2002M3 66.64 62.81
2002M4 66.69 62.73
2002M5 66.73 62.86
2002M6 66.61 62.75
2002M7 66.54 62.68
2002M8 66.56 62.75
2002M9 66.73 62.95
2002M10 66.55 62.75
2002M11 66.37 62.47
2002M12 66.32 62.37
2003M1 66.37 62.49
2003M2 66.37 62.46
2003M3 66.28 62.38
2003M4 66.42 62.41
2003M5 66.36 62.3
2003M6 66.54 62.34
2003M7 66.21 62.13
2003M8 66.11 62.1
2003M9 66.07 62.05
2003M10 66.08 62.14
2003M11 66.13 62.27
2003M12 65.94 62.2
2004M1 66.1 62.33
2004M2 65.98 62.31
2004M3 66.03 62.21
2004M4 65.92 62.26
2004M5 65.96 62.27
2004M6 66.07 62.36
2004M7 66.1 62.46
2004M8 65.97 62.4
2004M9 65.83 62.29
2004M10 65.92 62.33
2004M11 66.02 62.49
2004M12 65.91 62.38
2005M1 65.84 62.38
2005M2 65.93 62.38
2005M3 65.88 62.45
2005M4 66.06 62.66
2005M5 66.14 62.75
2005M6 66.06 62.73
2005M7 66.08 62.8
2005M8 66.15 62.91
2005M9 66.15 62.82
2005M10 66.09 62.81
2005M11 66.05 62.72
2005M12 65.97 62.77
2006M1 66.01 62.91
2006M2 66.14 62.99
2006M3 66.15 63.05
2006M4 66.12 63
2006M5 66.13 63.08
2006M6 66.19 63.13
2006M7 66.13 62.99
2006M8 66.2 63.11
2006M9 66.11 63.12
2006M10 66.2 63.27
2006M11 66.29 63.3
2006M12 66.37 63.44
2007M1 66.4 63.31
2007M2 66.27 63.27
2007M3 66.25 63.33
2007M4 65.92 62.96
2007M5 65.95 63.03
2007M6 66.05 63.04
2007M7 65.98 62.9
2007M8 65.78 62.74
2007M9 66 62.91
2007M10 65.82 62.71
2007M11 66.04 62.93
2007M12 66.02 62.74
2008M1 66.23 62.93
2008M2 66 62.78
2008M3 66.06 62.7
2008M4 65.94 62.66
2008M5 66.11 62.51
2008M6 66.05 62.38
2008M7 66.05 62.23
2008M8 66.06 62.02
2008M9 65.95 61.9
2008M10 66.01 61.72
2008M11 65.85 61.36
2008M12 65.8 61
2009M1 65.69 60.56
2009M2 65.79 60.29
2009M3 65.56 59.85
2009M4 65.67 59.78
2009M5 65.72 59.57
2009M6 65.65 59.41
2009M7 65.5 59.31
2009M8 65.36 59.08
2009M9 65.09 58.74
2009M10 65.01 58.52
2009M11 65 58.57
2009M12 64.62 58.25
2010M1 64.77 58.46
2010M2 64.86 58.48
2010M3 64.92 58.51
2010M4 65.16 58.7
2010M5 64.89 58.63
2010M6 64.64 58.54
2010M7 64.61 58.51
2010M8 64.72 58.56
2010M9 64.61 58.49
2010M10 64.41 58.32
2010M11 64.57 58.24
2010M12 64.31 58.3
2011M1 64.18 58.35
2011M2 64.17 58.37
2011M3 64.19 58.43
2011M4 64.21 58.38
2011M5 64.15 58.36
2011M6 64.04 58.21
2011M7 63.97 58.21
2011M8 64.09 58.32
2011M9 64.17 58.38
2011M10 64.07 58.41
2011M11 64.08 58.54
2011M12 63.98 58.54
2012M1 63.7 58.48
2012M2 63.86 58.55
2012M3 63.81 58.56
2012M4 63.66 58.47
2012M5 63.77 58.55
2012M6 63.8 58.58
2012M7 63.68 58.46
2012M8 63.5 58.38
2012M9 63.59 58.64
2012M10 63.74 58.76
2012M11 63.59 58.66
2012M12 63.63 58.61
2013M1 63.64 58.6
2013M2 63.52 58.6
2013M3 63.31 58.53
2013M4 63.37 58.6
2013M5 63.42 58.66
2013M6 63.46 58.67
2013M7 63.35 58.71
2013M8 63.2 58.62
2013M9 63.16 58.61
2013M10 62.76 58.24
2013M11 62.98 58.58
2013M12 62.79 58.6
2014M1 62.96 58.82
2014M2 63.02 58.79
2014M3 63.18 58.94
2014M4 62.81 58.87
2014M5 62.84 58.89
2014M6 62.83 59
2014M7 62.91 59.01

Source: For actual LFPR and employment-to-population ratio Current Population Survey. For LFPR projection Aaronson et al. (2006).

Figure 1 (continued): Labor force Participation Rate Annual Data

Year Aaronson et al. (2006) LFPR projection (left scale)
1990 ND
1991 ND
1992 ND
1993 ND
1994 ND
1995 ND
1996 ND
1997 ND
1998 ND
1999 ND
2000 ND
2001 ND
2002 ND
2003 ND
2004 66.4
2005 66.1
2006 65.8
2007 65.6
2008 65.2
2009 64.7
2010 64.4
2011 64
2012 63.7
2013 63.3
2014 62.9
2015 62.5

Source: For actual LFPR and employment-to-population ratio Current Population Survey. For LFPR projection Aaronson et al. (2006).

Figure 2: Selected Not in the Labor Force Categories and the Unemployment Rate

Year_Quarter Want a job now (pre-1994 Percent of population) Discouraged (pre-1994 Percent of population) Want a job now (Percent of population) Marginally attached (Percent of population) Discouraged (Percent of population) Unemployment rate (Percent)
1976Q1 3.46 0.3 ND ND ND 7.75
1976Q2 3.5 0.33 ND ND ND 7.55
1976Q3 2.73 0.25 ND ND ND 7.72
1976Q4 3.5 0.32 ND ND ND 7.76
1977Q1 3.55 0.29 ND ND ND 7.52
1977Q2 3.67 0.28 ND ND ND 7.13
1977Q3 3.6 0.29 ND ND ND 6.89
1977Q4 3.51 0.27 ND ND ND 6.64
1978Q1 3.41 0.26 ND ND ND 6.32
1978Q2 3.29 0.21 ND ND ND 6
1978Q3 3.41 0.23 ND ND ND 6.02
1978Q4 3.28 0.18 ND ND ND 5.88
1979Q1 3.23 0.18 ND ND ND 5.87
1979Q2 3.25 0.2 ND ND ND 5.71
1979Q3 3.34 0.21 ND ND ND 5.86
1979Q4 3.21 0.22 ND ND ND 5.93
1980Q1 3.35 0.24 ND ND ND 6.29
1980Q2 3.37 0.3 ND ND ND 7.32
1980Q3 3.37 0.27 ND ND ND 7.68
1980Q4 3.3 0.27 ND ND ND 7.39
1981Q1 3.54 0.31 ND ND ND 7.42
1981Q2 3.34 0.26 ND ND ND 7.39
1981Q3 3.3 0.28 ND ND ND 7.41
1981Q4 3.44 0.34 ND ND ND 8.23
1982Q1 3.62 0.43 ND ND ND 8.84
1982Q2 3.77 0.49 ND ND ND 9.42
1982Q3 3.78 0.5 ND ND ND 9.94
1982Q4 3.93 0.59 ND ND ND 10.67
1983Q1 3.73 0.61 ND ND ND 10.39
1983Q2 3.76 0.6 ND ND ND 10.1
1983Q3 3.73 0.5 ND ND ND 9.35
1983Q4 3.56 0.35 ND ND ND 8.53
1984Q1 3.51 0.33 ND ND ND 7.86
1984Q2 3.39 0.29 ND ND ND 7.47
1984Q3 3.27 0.3 ND ND ND 7.44
1984Q4 3.41 0.34 ND ND ND 7.28
1985Q1 3.29 0.3 ND ND ND 7.27
1985Q2 3.28 0.3 ND ND ND 7.28
1985Q3 3.34 0.33 ND ND ND 7.2
1985Q4 3.34 0.29 ND ND ND 7.05
1986Q1 3.19 0.28 ND ND ND 7.01
1986Q2 3.22 0.26 ND ND ND 7.17
1986Q3 3.25 0.29 ND ND ND 6.98
1986Q4 3.2 0.28 ND ND ND 6.83
1987Q1 3.18 0.27 ND ND ND 6.61
1987Q2 3.21 0.28 ND ND ND 6.27
1987Q3 3.06 0.23 ND ND ND 6
1987Q4 2.99 0.26 ND ND ND 5.86
1988Q1 2.97 0.24 ND ND ND 5.72
1988Q2 2.85 0.2 ND ND ND 5.48
1988Q3 2.82 0.21 ND ND ND 5.48
1988Q4 2.96 0.2 ND ND ND 5.34
1989Q1 2.88 0.24 ND ND ND 5.21
1989Q2 2.96 0.2 ND ND ND 5.23
1989Q3 2.91 0.18 ND ND ND 5.27
1989Q4 2.78 0.19 ND ND ND 5.36
1990Q1 2.88 0.19 ND ND ND 5.3
1990Q2 3 0.19 ND ND ND 5.34
1990Q3 2.85 0.18 ND ND ND 5.69
1990Q4 3.02 0.19 ND ND ND 6.11
1991Q1 3.03 0.22 ND ND ND 6.57
1991Q2 2.94 0.23 ND ND ND 6.82
1991Q3 3.01 0.24 ND ND ND 6.85
1991Q4 3.22 0.25 ND ND ND 7.1
1992Q1 3.23 0.26 ND ND ND 7.38
1992Q2 3.31 0.23 ND ND ND 7.6
1992Q3 3.23 0.26 ND ND ND 7.63
1992Q4 3.32 0.24 ND ND ND 7.41
1993Q1 3.34 0.27 ND ND ND 7.15
1993Q2 3.28 0.26 ND ND ND 7.07
1993Q3 3.31 0.27 ND ND ND 6.8
1993Q4 3.3 0.23 ND ND ND 6.62
1994Q1 ND ND 3.3 0.96 0.27 6.56
1994Q2 ND ND 3.24 0.91 0.26 6.17
1994Q3 ND ND 3.1 0.93 0.26 6
1994Q4 ND ND 2.98 0.88 0.24 5.62
1995Q1 ND ND 2.93 0.84 0.22 5.48
1995Q2 ND ND 2.82 0.77 0.2 5.68
1995Q3 ND ND 2.8 0.79 0.2 5.66
1995Q4 ND ND 2.87 0.81 0.21 5.57
1996Q1 ND ND 2.8 0.82 0.21 5.55
1996Q2 ND ND 2.75 0.8 0.2 5.47
1996Q3 ND ND 2.69 0.75 0.2 5.26
1996Q4 ND ND 2.62 0.74 0.18 5.31
1997Q1 ND ND 2.51 0.72 0.18 5.23
1997Q2 ND ND 2.47 0.73 0.18 4.98
1997Q3 ND ND 2.39 0.66 0.15 4.86
1997Q4 ND ND 2.35 0.68 0.16 4.68
1998Q1 ND ND 2.39 0.68 0.17 4.64
1998Q2 ND ND 2.34 0.62 0.15 4.42
1998Q3 ND ND 2.39 0.65 0.16 4.53
1998Q4 ND ND 2.26 0.61 0.16 4.43
1999Q1 ND ND 2.25 0.59 0.14 4.29
1999Q2 ND ND 2.28 0.6 0.12 4.25
1999Q3 ND ND 2.15 0.56 0.13 4.25
1999Q4 ND ND 2.1 0.57 0.13 4.08
2000Q1 ND ND 2.12 0.55 0.12 4.05
2000Q2 ND ND 2.06 0.56 0.15 3.95
2000Q3 ND ND 2.05 0.54 0.11 4.03
2000Q4 ND ND 2.07 0.52 0.12 3.92
2001Q1 ND ND 2.07 0.55 0.14 4.23
2001Q2 ND ND 2.12 0.56 0.15 4.41
2001Q3 ND ND 2.16 0.61 0.14 4.82
2001Q4 ND ND 2.19 0.64 0.16 5.54
2002Q1 ND ND 2.15 0.63 0.15 5.7
2002Q2 ND ND 2.18 0.68 0.16 5.84
2002Q3 ND ND 2.17 0.68 0.18 5.73
2002Q4 ND ND 2.09 0.67 0.18 5.85
2003Q1 ND ND 2.14 0.68 0.2 5.87
2003Q2 ND ND 2.11 0.67 0.21 6.15
2003Q3 ND ND 2.18 0.71 0.2 6.1
2003Q4 ND ND 2.1 0.7 0.21 5.82
2004Q1 ND ND 2.15 0.71 0.21 5.68
2004Q2 ND ND 2.1 0.71 0.21 5.59
2004Q3 ND ND 2.16 0.7 0.22 5.43
2004Q4 ND ND 2.28 0.71 0.2 5.39
2005Q1 ND ND 2.22 0.71 0.21 5.28
2005Q2 ND ND 2.23 0.69 0.18 5.11
2005Q3 ND ND 2.17 0.67 0.19 4.97
2005Q4 ND ND 2.2 0.67 0.19 4.95
2006Q1 ND ND 2.16 0.64 0.17 4.72
2006Q2 ND ND 2.05 0.64 0.17 4.65
2006Q3 ND ND 2.11 0.64 0.18 4.64
2006Q4 ND ND 2.04 0.61 0.15 4.45
2007Q1 ND ND 1.99 0.61 0.16 4.52
2007Q2 ND ND 2.11 0.62 0.17 4.5
2007Q3 ND ND 2.05 0.58 0.15 4.66
2007Q4 ND ND 1.95 0.59 0.15 4.8
2008Q1 ND ND 2.05 0.64 0.17 4.98
2008Q2 ND ND 2.07 0.64 0.17 5.32
2008Q3 ND ND 2.15 0.69 0.19 6.01
2008Q4 ND ND 2.26 0.79 0.25 6.87
2009Q1 ND ND 2.43 0.87 0.29 8.29
2009Q2 ND ND 2.52 0.94 0.33 9.28
2009Q3 ND ND 2.49 0.96 0.33 9.6
2009Q4 ND ND 2.56 1.01 0.37 9.91
2010Q1 ND ND 2.54 1 0.45 9.82
2010Q2 ND ND 2.47 1.04 0.5 9.66
2010Q3 ND ND 2.55 1.06 0.5 9.48
2010Q4 ND ND 2.64 1.08 0.52 9.53
2011Q1 ND ND 2.71 1.08 0.4 9.03
2011Q2 ND ND 2.69 1.05 0.4 9.08
2011Q3 ND ND 2.67 1.1 0.44 9
2011Q4 ND ND 2.68 1.06 0.4 8.66
2012Q1 ND ND 2.61 1.04 0.4 8.25
2012Q2 ND ND 2.64 1.03 0.37 8.18
2012Q3 ND ND 2.78 1.04 0.34 8.01
2012Q4 ND ND 2.76 1.03 0.37 7.82
2013Q1 ND ND 2.74 0.98 0.34 7.73
2013Q2 ND ND 2.66 0.99 0.38 7.52
2013Q3 ND ND 2.56 0.96 0.37 7.26
2013Q4 ND ND 2.43 0.92 0.32 6.96
2014Q1 ND ND 2.5 0.93 0.31 6.67
2014Q2 ND ND 2.52 0.88 0.3 6.22

Seasonally adjusted by authors (except post-1994 "Want job" and the unemployment rate series which are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Labor statistics). Pre-1994 "Want Job" and "Discouraged" series are based on outgoing CPS rotation groups only.

Source: For pre-1994 "Want job" and "Discouraged" series Current Population Survey microdata. For all others Current Population Survey published series.

Figure 3: Cross-state Relationship Between Normalization of Participation Non-participation and the Unemployment Rate Panel A

state_abbreviation unemployment_rate_ratio non_participant_want_job_ratio fitted_line
US 1.37 1.25 1.25
ME 1.41 1.16 1.27
NH 1.42 1.23 1.27
VT 1.09 1.14 1.13
MA 1.41 1.43 1.26
RI 1.74 1.19 1.41
CT 1.53 1.27 1.32
NY 1.45 1.31 1.28
NJ 1.71 1.39 1.39
PA 1.48 1.25 1.29
OH 1.29 1.25 1.21
IN 1.47 1.31 1.29
IL 1.59 1.21 1.34
MI 1.22 1.27 1.18
WI 1.33 1.12 1.23
MN 1.1 1.07 1.13
IA 1.12 1.09 1.14
MO 1.25 1.15 1.19
ND 0.8 0.86 1
SD 1.03 1.08 1.1
NE 1.13 1.18 1.15
KS 1.14 1.28 1.15
DE 1.76 1.58 1.42
MD 1.64 1.28 1.36
DC 1.31 0.94 1.22
VA 1.57 1.44 1.33
WV 1.25 1.07 1.19
NC 1.56 1.23 1.33
SC 1.13 1.56 1.14
GA 1.7 1.5 1.39
FL 1.69 1.31 1.38
KY 1.4 1.19 1.26
TN 1.53 1.22 1.31
AL 1.46 1.8 1.28
MS 1.38 1.06 1.25
AR 1.36 1.51 1.24
LA 1.25 1.32 1.2
OK 1.2 1.23 1.17
TX 1.13 1.07 1.15
MT 1.28 1.59 1.21
ID 1.53 1.37 1.32
WY 1.29 1 1.21
CO 1.39 1.37 1.26
NM 1.42 1.31 1.27
AZ 1.7 1.51 1.39
UT 1.07 0.95 1.12
NV 2.12 1.97 1.57
WA 1.2 1.22 1.17
OR 1.23 1.08 1.19
CA 1.57 1.25 1.33
AK 0.93 0.85 1.06
HI 1.46 1.53 1.28

Source: Authors' estimates derived from the BLS's publicly available CPS microdata.

***Significant at 1% level.

Figure 3: Cross-state Relationship Between Normalization of Participation Non-participation and the Unemployment Rate Panel B

state_abbreviation unemployment_rate_ratio labor_force_participation_rate_ratio fitted_line
US 1.37 0.95 0.96
ME 1.41 0.99 0.96
NH 1.42 0.97 0.96
VT 1.09 0.97 0.96
MA 1.41 0.96 0.96
RI 1.74 0.96 0.96
CT 1.53 0.97 0.96
NY 1.45 0.98 0.96
NJ 1.71 0.97 0.96
PA 1.48 0.99 0.96
OH 1.29 0.94 0.96
IN 1.47 0.94 0.96
IL 1.59 0.98 0.96
MI 1.22 0.93 0.96
WI 1.33 0.96 0.96
MN 1.1 0.95 0.96
IA 1.12 0.98 0.96
MO 1.25 0.94 0.96
ND 0.8 1 0.96
SD 1.03 0.95 0.96
NE 1.13 0.98 0.96
KS 1.14 0.97 0.96
DE 1.76 0.9 0.96
MD 1.64 0.98 0.96
DC 1.31 1.05 0.96
VA 1.57 0.98 0.96
WV 1.25 0.97 0.96
NC 1.56 0.93 0.96
SC 1.13 0.92 0.96
GA 1.7 0.93 0.96
FL 1.69 0.96 0.96
KY 1.4 0.97 0.96
TN 1.53 0.94 0.96
AL 1.46 0.93 0.96
MS 1.38 0.91 0.96
AR 1.36 0.92 0.96
LA 1.25 0.97 0.96
OK 1.2 0.97 0.96
TX 1.13 0.98 0.96
MT 1.28 0.95 0.96
ID 1.53 0.95 0.96
WY 1.29 0.96 0.96
CO 1.39 0.94 0.96
NM 1.42 0.9 0.96
AZ 1.7 0.92 0.96
UT 1.07 0.95 0.96
NV 2.12 0.94 0.95
WA 1.2 0.94 0.96
OR 1.23 0.93 0.96
CA 1.57 0.96 0.96
AK 0.93 0.95 0.96
HI 1.46 0.93 0.96

Source: Authors' estimates derived from the BLS's publicly available CPS microdata.

***Significant at 1% level.

Figure 4: Select Participation Rates by Age Gender and Education: A. Participation Rates by Age and Education Status

Year_Month 25-54 males college degree 25-54 males no college degree 25-54 females college degree 16-24 25-54 females no college degree 55+
1976M6 65.5 92.79 96.13 52.94 64.47 34.15
1976M7 65.75 92.83 96.07 52.97 64.55 34.11
1976M8 65.83 92.86 96.03 53.04 64.69 34.1
1976M9 65.85 92.89 96 53.16 64.78 34.06
1976M10 65.82 92.85 95.99 53.21 64.88 34.04
1976M11 65.88 92.8 95.99 53.42 65.01 34.02
1976M12 65.99 92.72 96.02 53.63 65.03 33.99
1977M1 65.94 92.64 96.04 53.81 65.16 33.9
1977M2 66.13 92.6 96.12 53.96 65.35 33.82
1977M3 66.4 92.6 96.12 54.15 65.49 33.77
1977M4 66.51 92.63 96.09 54.37 65.64 33.77
1977M5 66.57 92.65 96.07 54.54 65.76 33.81
1977M6 66.85 92.69 96.13 54.68 65.84 33.79
1977M7 67.01 92.65 96.18 54.69 66.04 33.76
1977M8 67.14 92.61 96.24 54.75 66.18 33.71
1977M9 67.21 92.61 96.2 54.86 66.3 33.72
1977M10 67.4 92.65 96.27 54.89 66.43 33.78
1977M11 67.67 92.69 96.33 55.02 66.59 33.78
1977M12 67.63 92.74 96.27 55.11 66.76 33.83
1978M1 67.74 92.87 96.28 55.35 66.89 33.88
1978M2 67.72 92.9 96.23 55.54 67.04 33.88
1978M3 67.77 92.93 96.24 55.71 67.22 33.87
1978M4 67.88 92.85 96.24 55.87 67.57 33.85
1978M5 67.94 92.81 96.24 55.99 67.65 33.82
1978M6 68.18 92.7 96.25 56.21 67.86 33.85
1978M7 68.35 92.61 96.21 56.36 68.09 33.86
1978M8 68.62 92.58 96.25 56.48 68.21 33.9
1978M9 68.84 92.53 96.3 56.63 68.48 33.9
1978M10 68.98 92.56 96.27 56.87 68.61 33.85
1978M11 69.08 92.6 96.29 57 68.93 33.9
1978M12 69.14 92.7 96.33 57.11 69.13 33.91
1979M1 69.2 92.79 96.34 57.22 69.27 33.99
1979M2 69.27 92.92 96.34 57.35 69.51 34.05
1979M3 69.34 92.97 96.37 57.43 69.58 34.05
1979M4 69.37 92.96 96.34 57.43 69.54 33.98
1979M5 69.3 92.89 96.32 57.48 69.43 33.88
1979M6 69.21 92.86 96.31 57.6 69.39 33.78
1979M7 69.18 92.86 96.34 57.83 69.43 33.65
1979M8 68.95 92.87 96.28 58.08 69.6 33.62
1979M9 68.92 92.88 96.27 58.34 69.78 33.58
1979M10 68.85 92.89 96.32 58.61 70.01 33.64
1979M11 68.91 92.91 96.27 58.86 70.35 33.64
1979M12 69.04 92.86 96.25 59.08 70.65 33.61
1980M1 69 92.8 96.22 59.31 70.88 33.58
1980M2 69.07 92.64 96.26 59.45 71.02 33.51
1980M3 68.93 92.54 96.24 59.47 71.23 33.43
1980M4 68.82 92.48 96.24 59.54 71.47 33.3
1980M5 68.77 92.46 96.27 59.52 71.71 33.21
1980M6 68.56 92.46 96.24 59.49 71.86 33.11
1980M7 68.53 92.46 96.26 59.34 71.96 33.01
1980M8 68.37 92.47 96.24 59.33 72.05 32.97
1980M9 68.34 92.53 96.24 59.34 72.07 32.87
1980M10 68.42 92.53 96.24 59.28 72.16 32.8
1980M11 68.39 92.54 96.21 59.45 72.21 32.7
1980M12 68.4 92.5 96.16 59.59 72.24 32.61
1981M1 68.42 92.5 96.13 59.8 72.42 32.53
1981M2 68.62 92.48 96.12 60.02 72.56 32.44
1981M3 68.68 92.46 96.12 60.27 72.75 32.52
1981M4 68.73 92.52 96.11 60.56 72.88 32.54
1981M5 68.72 92.58 96.17 60.75 73.07 32.59
1981M6 68.51 92.62 96.16 60.81 73.31 32.62
1981M7 68.32 92.58 96.12 60.85 73.38 32.61
1981M8 68.13 92.61 96.08 60.73 73.43 32.55
1981M9 67.98 92.56 96.04 60.63 73.31 32.34
1981M10 67.83 92.46 96.04 60.58 73.32 32.22
1981M11 67.73 92.34 96.03 60.62 73.41 32.09
1981M12 67.79 92.29 96.04 60.61 73.53 32.01
1982M1 67.76 92.25 96.11 60.61 73.71 31.95
1982M2 67.81 92.21 96.21 60.74 73.92 31.87
1982M3 67.84 92.25 96.22 60.89 74.18 31.95
1982M4 67.81 92.27 96.18 60.96 74.2 32
1982M5 67.82 92.37 96.12 60.98 74.23 32.08
1982M6 67.68 92.4 96.1 61.12 74.34 32.14
1982M7 67.63 92.4 96.04 61.26 74.52 32.18
1982M8 67.57 92.36 95.94 61.37 74.58 32.22
1982M9 67.54 92.26 95.93 61.44 74.65 32.21
1982M10 67.51 92.24 95.88 61.56 74.79 32.11
1982M11 67.52 92.14 95.85 61.63 74.86 32.03
1982M12 67.72 92.09 95.84 61.73 74.79 31.92
1983M1 67.8 92.07 95.81 61.77 74.77 31.85
1983M2 67.74 92.07 95.78 61.69 74.82 31.82
1983M3 67.61 92.12 95.77 61.64 74.91 31.73
1983M4 67.48 92.11 95.77 61.55 75.02 31.7
1983M5 67.2 92.13 95.75 61.52 75.07 31.62
1983M6 67.28 92.15 95.73 61.6 75.21 31.54
1983M7 67.34 92.16 95.75 61.68 75.21 31.48
1983M8 67.51 92.18 95.73 61.94 75.23 31.42
1983M9 67.67 92.18 95.7 62.12 75.39 31.42
1983M10 67.73 92.15 95.64 62.23 75.43 31.41
1983M11 67.99 92.13 95.6 62.3 75.56 31.42
1983M12 67.89 92.11 95.6 62.21 75.66 31.42
1984M1 67.81 92.08 95.58 62.14 75.76 31.29
1984M2 67.66 92.08 95.6 62.02 75.94 31.18
1984M3 67.64 91.99 95.68 62 76.08 31
1984M4 67.76 91.98 95.76 62.07 76.3 30.86
1984M5 67.84 91.97 95.83 62.19 76.53 30.7
1984M6 68.02 91.99 95.88 62.33 76.59 30.52
1984M7 68.18 92.08 95.92 62.5 76.76 30.46
1984M8 68.15 92.09 95.96 62.64 76.84 30.38
1984M9 68.24 92.13 95.92 62.71 76.73 30.35
1984M10 68.27 92.15 95.95 62.79 76.71 30.28
1984M11 68.33 92.13 95.95 62.84 76.6 30.23
1984M12 68.31 92.13 95.93 62.92 76.65 30.21
1985M1 68.3 92.06 95.93 63.09 76.69 30.15
1985M2 68.5 92.04 95.9 63.22 76.75 30.12
1985M3 68.57 92.05 95.91 63.43 77.03 30.15
1985M4 68.63 92.09 95.91 63.62 77.1 30.15
1985M5 68.65 92.05 95.95 63.68 77.23 30.11
1985M6 68.48 91.98 95.99 63.81 77.3 30.08
1985M7 68.46 91.94 96.02 63.77 77.37 30.03
1985M8 68.28 91.89 96.06 63.71 77.49 30
1985M9 68.24 91.87 96.13 63.76 77.56 29.88
1985M10 68.29 91.82 96.16 63.78 77.69 29.83
1985M11 68.28 91.82 96.17 63.9 77.87 29.77
1985M12 68.45 91.82 96.16 63.94 78.04 29.7
1986M1 68.35 91.82 96.14 64.1 78.09 29.72
1986M2 68.61 91.82 96.11 64.31 78.02 29.65
1986M3 68.74 91.79 96.04 64.45 77.9 29.65
1986M4 68.77 91.73 95.98 64.6 77.89 29.6
1986M5 68.8 91.73 95.88 64.69 77.91 29.62
1986M6 68.81 91.74 95.88 64.8 78.02 29.7
1986M7 68.95 91.69 95.91 64.87 78.24 29.7
1986M8 68.83 91.68 95.91 64.94 78.51 29.74
1986M9 68.79 91.71 95.91 65.03 78.79 29.71
1986M10 68.76 91.73 95.86 65.19 78.97 29.69
1986M11 68.74 91.77 95.92 65.36 79 29.67
1986M12 68.72 91.76 95.93 65.44 78.95 29.58
1987M1 68.73 91.87 95.9 65.45 78.83 29.52
1987M2 68.88 91.85 95.94 65.57 78.79 29.43
1987M3 68.81 91.84 95.93 65.62 78.83 29.42
1987M4 68.75 91.8 95.99 65.59 78.96 29.4
1987M5 68.81 91.74 95.99 65.72 79.09 29.42
1987M6 68.63 91.69 95.96 65.85 79.15 29.45
1987M7 68.54 91.6 95.94 66.06 79.33 29.47
1987M8 68.48 91.56 95.9 66.16 79.39 29.53
1987M9 68.39 91.47 95.9 66.2 79.42 29.54
1987M10 68.37 91.42 95.92 66.25 79.42 29.63
1987M11 68.28 91.34 95.93 66.16 79.55 29.66
1987M12 68.45 91.28 95.95 66.17 79.69 29.7
1988M1 68.59 91.21 95.96 66.1 79.78 29.71
1988M2 68.59 91.18 95.97 66.07 79.91 29.71
1988M3 68.57 91.18 95.97 66.11 80.02 29.69
1988M4 68.53 91.2 96.01 66.1 80.08 29.64
1988M5 68.38 91.21 96.04 66.21 80.01 29.56
1988M6 68.37 91.21 95.98 66.23 79.99 29.46
1988M7 68.33 91.22 96 66.35 79.91 29.4
1988M8 68.33 91.23 96.02 66.48 79.84 29.37
1988M9 68.48 91.21 96.03 66.58 79.79 29.4
1988M10 68.52 91.17 95.97 66.74 79.78 29.42
1988M11 68.62 91.15 95.99 66.92 79.9 29.52
1988M12 68.61 91.16 96 67.11 79.98 29.61
1989M1 68.6 91.2 95.99 67.34 80.19 29.84
1989M2 68.51 91.18 95.95 67.47 80.35 29.99
1989M3 68.44 91.18 95.98 67.56 80.47 30.11
1989M4 68.48 91.21 95.99 67.6 80.58 30.22
1989M5 68.54 91.19 95.96 67.51 80.66 30.31
1989M6 68.73 91.19 96.03 67.45 80.71 30.39
1989M7 68.85 91.17 96.04 67.38 80.66 30.35
1989M8 69.05 91.16 96.08 67.39 80.56 30.3
1989M9 69.02 91.21 96.04 67.52 80.6 30.26
1989M10 68.96 91.26 96.03 67.63 80.56 30.24
1989M11 69.01 91.38 96.01 67.82 80.57 30.22
1989M12 68.69 91.45 95.98 68.01 80.57 30.25
1990M1 68.4 91.43 95.98 68.15 80.61 30.24
1990M2 68.09 91.41 95.96 68.18 80.74 30.26
1990M3 68.1 91.31 95.98 68.11 80.74 30.27
1990M4 68.07 91.2 95.96 68.11 80.77 30.24
1990M5 67.89 91.11 95.94 68.07 80.83 30.21
1990M6 67.77 91.02 95.85 68.03 80.91 30.09
1990M7 67.67 90.96 95.82 67.89 81.03 30.04
1990M8 67.5 90.95 95.76 67.75 81.13 30.06
1990M9 67.3 90.95 95.74 67.65 81.23 30.1
1990M10 67.12 90.95 95.73 67.58 81.21 30.11
1990M11 66.95 90.92 95.76 67.47 81.12 30.07
1990M12 66.92 90.91 95.77 67.39 81.08 30.11
1991M1 66.95 90.88 95.73 67.36 80.93 30.03
1991M2 66.96 90.87 95.75 67.46 80.86 29.91
1991M3 66.9 90.83 95.77 67.53 80.81 29.8
1991M4 66.79 90.86 95.78 67.67 80.89 29.76
1991M5 66.68 90.76 95.74 67.75 80.97 29.68
1991M6 66.51 90.64 95.72 67.87 81.05 29.63
1991M7 66.27 90.58 95.69 67.92 81.15 29.66
1991M8 65.99 90.41 95.66 67.96 81.16 29.63
1991M9 65.85 90.39 95.61 67.96 81.17 29.67
1991M10 65.81 90.2 95.54 67.78 81.2 29.6
1991M11 65.85 90.17 95.52 67.72 81.19 29.58
1991M12 65.9 90.13 95.51 67.57 81.16 29.51
1992M1 65.93 90.16 95.55 67.57 81.24 29.5
1992M2 66.11 90.21 95.55 67.5 81.36 29.55
1992M3 66.09 90.2 95.52 67.5 81.49 29.55
1992M4 65.97 90.3 95.51 67.66 81.57 29.64
1992M5 65.93 90.38 95.54 67.83 81.6 29.71
1992M6 65.98 90.48 95.58 68.06 81.68 29.78
1992M7 66.1 90.45 95.61 68.14 81.68 29.83
1992M8 66.16 90.48 95.6 68.18 81.63 29.83
1992M9 66.35 90.42 95.65 68.15 81.58 29.78
1992M10 66.39 90.29 95.71 67.94 81.55 29.67
1992M11 66.49 90.03 95.69 67.77 81.6 29.61
1992M12 66.55 89.84 95.64 67.52 81.61 29.54
1993M1 66.51 89.76 95.55 67.4 81.55 29.43
1993M2 66.5 89.61 95.5 67.32 81.47 29.42
1993M3 66.37 89.59 95.36 67.3 81.43 29.36
1993M4 66.37 89.58 95.26 67.28 81.4 29.35
1993M5 66.4 89.71 95.2 67.24 81.39 29.38
1993M6 66.27 89.78 95.2 67.21 81.43 29.41
1993M7 66.25 89.79 95.22 67.23 81.45 29.4
1993M8 66.19 89.8 95.24 67.27 81.54 29.39
1993M9 66.13 89.67 95.3 67.31 81.55 29.39
1993M10 66.14 89.6 95.31 67.5 81.54 29.43
1993M11 66.02 89.5 95.33 67.65 81.51 29.41
1993M12 65.99 89.36 95.35 67.8 81.48 29.4
1994M1 65.99 89.12 95.33 67.81 81.59 29.6
1994M2 66.04 88.95 95.29 67.86 81.68 29.69
1994M3 66.11 88.79 95.25 67.89 81.76 29.77
1994M4 66.2 88.56 95.2 67.85 81.83 29.84
1994M5 66.27 88.33 95.14 67.74 81.94 29.97
1994M6 66.4 88.09 95.01 67.54 81.97 30.05
1994M7 66.41 87.96 94.97 67.48 82.01 29.96
1994M8 66.53 87.82 94.95 67.42 82.1 30
1994M9 66.52 87.76 94.94 67.52 82.27 30.08
1994M10 66.62 87.82 94.94 67.58 82.38 30.18
1994M11 66.64 87.91 94.93 67.67 82.44 30.23
1994M12 66.7 88.07 94.97 67.82 82.39 30.3
1995M1 66.79 88.17 94.97 67.92 82.33 30.38
1995M2 66.71 88.25 94.97 68.02 82.23 30.34
1995M3 66.84 88.28 94.98 67.92 82.07 30.29
1995M4 66.83 88.23 94.99 67.97 82.14 30.25
1995M5 66.83 88.24 94.99 67.97 82.15 30.11
1995M6 66.82 88.14 94.93 68.01 82.19 30.01
1995M7 66.76 88.02 94.87 68.1 82.24 29.99
1995M8 66.76 87.94 94.78 68.1 82.22 30.02
1995M9 66.64 87.96 94.65 68.21 82.22 30.14
1995M10 66.42 87.99 94.49 68.2 82.13 30.22
1995M11 66.25 87.85 94.39 68.3 82.11 30.3
1995M12 66.06 87.83 94.33 68.37 82.1 30.31
1996M1 65.87 87.91 94.3 68.36 82.09 30.26
1996M2 65.65 87.99 94.37 68.33 82.11 30.27
1996M3 65.58 88.05 94.4 68.19 82.19 30.21
1996M4 65.61 88.09 94.5 68.17 82.26 30.1
1996M5 65.75 88.2 94.55 68.26 82.21 30.1
1996M6 65.73 88.25 94.59 68.32 82.28 30.21
1996M7 65.8 88.35 94.61 68.48 82.3 30.33
1996M8 65.73 88.45 94.58 68.65 82.35 30.39
1996M9 65.77 88.54 94.58 68.83 82.36 30.42
1996M10 65.82 88.61 94.59 68.94 82.38 30.51
1996M11 65.71 88.71 94.61 68.94 82.5 30.55
1996M12 65.7 88.77 94.61 69.06 82.53 30.55
1997M1 65.64 88.82 94.58 69.08 82.59 30.58
1997M2 65.76 88.77 94.59 69.05 82.63 30.59
1997M3 65.75 88.68 94.65 69.19 82.6 30.69
1997M4 65.71 88.64 94.65 69.29 82.53 30.77
1997M5 65.82 88.52 94.61 69.4 82.42 30.89
1997M6 65.83 88.55 94.61 69.49 82.38 30.95
1997M7 65.91 88.57 94.65 69.6 82.39 30.89
1997M8 65.86 88.62 94.67 69.87 82.45 30.95
1997M9 65.77 88.65 94.64 69.98 82.51 30.93
1997M10 65.63 88.63 94.63 70.1 82.53 30.96
1997M11 65.56 88.7 94.65 70.01 82.58 31.03
1997M12 65.59 88.69 94.65 69.92 82.62 31.16
1998M1 65.74 88.6 94.64 69.82 82.55 31.35
1998M2 65.94 88.53 94.56 69.67 82.46 31.44
1998M3 66.14 88.57 94.57 69.6 82.39 31.52
1998M4 66.25 88.63 94.54 69.5 82.35 31.59
1998M5 66.29 88.72 94.52 69.53 82.34 31.61
1998M6 66.37 88.76 94.52 69.57 82.3 31.58
1998M7 66.23 88.85 94.54 69.64 82.28 31.58
1998M8 66.18 88.93 94.55 69.69 82.31 31.59
1998M9 66.22 88.91 94.49 69.76 82.39 31.63
1998M10 66.28 88.86 94.53 69.85 82.44 31.69
1998M11 66.24 88.78 94.55 69.89 82.44 31.77
1998M12 66.21 88.72 94.55 69.95 82.45 31.86
1999M1 66.14 88.69 94.55 70.04 82.48 31.9
1999M2 66.06 88.66 94.53 70.07 82.44 31.98
1999M3 65.9 88.6 94.48 70 82.31 32.05
1999M4 65.75 88.59 94.41 69.94 82.26 32.07
1999M5 65.71 88.56 94.37 69.93 82.26 32.01
1999M6 65.61 88.54 94.29 69.85 82.27 32.02
1999M7 65.67 88.45 94.22 69.68 82.25 32.12
1999M8 65.67 88.38 94.19 69.57 82.22 32.2
1999M9 65.71 88.36 94.22 69.58 82.24 32.26
1999M10 65.82 88.3 94.25 69.6 82.28 32.29
1999M11 65.83 88.31 94.27 69.75 82.23 32.35
1999M12 65.97 88.32 94.34 69.85 82.1 32.34
2000M1 66.05 88.42 94.39 70.08 82.03 32.33
2000M2 66.09 88.49 94.46 70.23 82 32.4
2000M3 66.1 88.5 94.48 70.3 82.03 32.46
2000M4 66.2 88.46 94.5 70.43 82.06 32.48
2000M5 66.2 88.31 94.47 70.39 82.04 32.54
2000M6 66.21 88.3 94.46 70.31 82.06 32.59
2000M7 66.05 88.18 94.41 70.13 82.04 32.61
2000M8 66.11 88.03 94.41 70.08 81.9 32.64
2000M9 66.13 87.97 94.39 70.01 81.72 32.64
2000M10 66.13 88.01 94.27 69.9 81.51 32.69
2000M11 66.19 88.13 94.25 69.9 81.34 32.73
2000M12 66.21 88.08 94.24 69.95 81.31 32.77
2001M1 66.34 88.06 94.24 70.07 81.37 32.89
2001M2 66.3 88.07 94.18 70.23 81.42 32.88
2001M3 66.33 88.07 94.15 70.37 81.45 32.93
2001M4 66.21 87.97 94.23 70.36 81.44 33.02
2001M5 65.84 87.85 94.25 70.28 81.46 33.11
2001M6 65.53 87.68 94.27 70.26 81.34 33.2
2001M7 65.26 87.52 94.27 70.17 81.13 33.24
2001M8 64.81 87.38 94.25 70 81.03 33.33
2001M9 64.57 87.25 94.24 69.84 80.97 33.4
2001M10 64.39 87.17 94.2 69.81 80.9 33.44
2001M11 64.48 87.1 94.16 69.71 80.91 33.51
2001M12 64.38 87.14 94.08 69.68 80.99 33.63
2002M1 64.14 87.18 94 69.55 81.09 33.73
2002M2 64.19 87.24 94 69.55 81.12 33.84
2002M3 64.16 87.31 94.04 69.5 81.12 33.95
2002M4 63.99 87.36 94.02 69.63 81.08 34.11
2002M5 63.9 87.41 94.02 69.7 81.01 34.27
2002M6 63.9 87.41 94.01 69.6 80.86 34.43
2002M7 63.99 87.38 93.99 69.62 80.62 34.61
2002M8 63.93 87.38 93.95 69.43 80.56 34.71
2002M9 63.74 87.4 93.89 69.33 80.54 34.87
2002M10 63.62 87.36 93.86 69.07 80.58 35.01
2002M11 63.46 87.28 93.75 68.87 80.61 35.09
2002M12 63.26 87.22 93.71 68.93 80.66 35.13
2003M1 63.13 87.15 93.68 68.82 80.82 35.24
2003M2 62.99 87.07 93.62 68.77 80.83 35.35
2003M3 62.73 86.99 93.56 68.83 80.81 35.44
2003M4 62.59 87.03 93.5 68.92 80.76 35.47
2003M5 62.44 87.09 93.47 68.97 80.7 35.56
2003M6 62.36 87.16 93.41 68.92 80.69 35.67
2003M7 62.16 87.25 93.35 68.85 80.64 35.67
2003M8 61.97 87.29 93.28 68.79 80.61 35.71
2003M9 61.99 87.32 93.19 68.56 80.54 35.7
2003M10 61.86 87.28 93.15 68.3 80.44 35.8
2003M11 61.69 87.31 93.13 68.17 80.37 35.92
2003M12 61.4 87.37 93.11 67.93 80.27 36.02
2004M1 61.48 87.44 93.15 67.98 80.17 36.11
2004M2 61.44 87.48 93.1 67.93 80.15 36.22
2004M3 61.3 87.42 93.06 67.96 80.19 36.38
2004M4 61.36 87.35 93.02 67.97 80.26 36.32
2004M5 61.4 87.27 93.04 67.9 80.32 36.29
2004M6 61.46 87.17 93.04 67.94 80.39 36.25
2004M7 61.35 87.11 93 67.88 80.53 36.24
2004M8 61.39 87.06 93.06 67.86 80.55 36.28
2004M9 61.4 87.07 93.12 67.84 80.52 36.27
2004M10 61.5 87.13 93.12 67.83 80.51 36.38
2004M11 61.55 87.1 93.16 67.87 80.52 36.48
2004M12 61.71 87.04 93.16 67.81 80.49 36.58
2005M1 61.74 86.91 93.12 67.63 80.55 36.67
2005M2 61.71 86.85 93.12 67.58 80.59 36.77
2005M3 61.75 86.8 93.12 67.41 80.59 36.86
2005M4 61.64 86.81 93.18 67.26 80.67 37.02
2005M5 61.63 86.92 93.13 67.21 80.71 37.11
2005M6 61.57 87.03 93.14 67.16 80.74 37.2
2005M7 61.56 87.13 93.17 67.36 80.64 37.33
2005M8 61.61 87.2 93.32 67.4 80.56 37.43
2005M9 61.55 87.27 93.38 67.55 80.65 37.55
2005M10 61.53 87.28 93.39 67.67 80.62 37.6
2005M11 61.48 87.2 93.4 67.64 80.59 37.63
2005M12 61.33 87.11 93.39 67.6 80.63 37.68
2006M1 61.25 87.01 93.36 67.31 80.66 37.72
2006M2 61.23 86.92 93.23 67.2 80.76 37.69
2006M3 61.3 86.93 93.22 67.06 80.72 37.69
2006M4 61.21 86.96 93.24 67.02 80.67 37.8
2006M5 61.15 87.09 93.22 67.02 80.71 37.92
2006M6 61.24 87.21 93.25 67.17 80.62 38.04
2006M7 61.29 87.26 93.33 67.44 80.61 38.11
2006M8 61.33 87.33 93.39 67.58 80.59 38.19
2006M9 61.25 87.26 93.43 67.69 80.64 38.29
2006M10 61.25 87.21 93.47 67.72 80.78 38.33
2006M11 61.23 87.14 93.55 67.73 80.77 38.41
2006M12 61.24 87.14 93.58 67.66 80.87 38.5
2007M1 61.18 87.25 93.64 67.6 80.86 38.5
2007M2 60.92 87.35 93.68 67.5 80.79 38.59
2007M3 60.84 87.34 93.7 67.47 80.73 38.68
2007M4 60.65 87.35 93.72 67.36 80.58 38.71
2007M5 60.35 87.27 93.78 67.31 80.57 38.75
2007M6 60.11 87.16 93.84 67.1 80.57 38.78
2007M7 59.84 87.07 93.77 66.87 80.59 38.93
2007M8 59.61 86.96 93.71 66.8 80.71 39
2007M9 59.55 87 93.65 66.81 80.77 39.06
2007M10 59.53 86.99 93.6 66.79 80.89 39.11
2007M11 59.72 87.05 93.59 66.8 80.99 39.16
2007M12 59.74 87.16 93.57 66.92 81.06 39.2
2008M1 59.78 87.14 93.58 67.02 81.13 39.24
2008M2 59.75 87.09 93.57 67.04 81.12 39.33
2008M3 59.52 87.08 93.54 66.95 81.22 39.38
2008M4 59.43 86.98 93.52 66.96 81.31 39.43
2008M5 59.46 86.89 93.46 66.97 81.3 39.44
2008M6 59.39 86.8 93.39 67 81.35 39.49
2008M7 59.36 86.82 93.38 66.97 81.36 39.56
2008M8 59.42 86.9 93.36 67 81.45 39.62
2008M9 59.47 86.9 93.37 66.99 81.44 39.65
2008M10 59.39 86.94 93.4 67.04 81.38 39.76
2008M11 58.93 86.92 93.41 66.96 81.41 39.9
2008M12 58.8 86.84 93.4 66.9 81.34 40.01
2009M1 58.58 86.71 93.33 66.96 81.29 40.12
2009M2 58.5 86.5 93.33 66.98 81.25 40.12
2009M3 58.36 86.22 93.32 67.01 81.16 40.14
2009M4 58.32 86.04 93.24 67.02 81.18 40.11
2009M5 58.39 85.93 93.11 66.99 81.15 40.09
2009M6 58.24 85.83 93 67.01 81.19 40.1
2009M7 58.11 85.7 92.96 67.01 81.26 40.06
2009M8 57.82 85.74 92.91 66.87 81.24 40.06
2009M9 57.5 85.85 92.82 66.68 81.21 40.06
2009M10 57.01 85.8 92.82 66.42 81.11 40.06
2009M11 56.63 85.71 92.8 66.27 81.04 40.05
2009M12 56.26 85.59 92.74 66.04 80.89 40.03
2010M1 55.99 85.54 92.72 66.01 80.83 40.07
2010M2 55.84 85.46 92.66 66.16 80.75 40.13
2010M3 55.76 85.45 92.64 66.33 80.73 40.23
2010M4 55.94 85.51 92.57 66.55 80.77 40.33
2010M5 56.03 85.49 92.56 66.59 80.72 40.39
2010M6 56.02 85.45 92.59 66.66 80.71 40.43
2010M7 56 85.44 92.49 66.46 80.61 40.46
2010M8 56.04 85.39 92.41 66.25 80.57 40.5
2010M9 55.98 85.32 92.31 66.14 80.53 40.51
2010M10 55.81 85.25 92.17 66.04 80.44 40.41
2010M11 55.76 85.19 92.07 66.12 80.42 40.35
2010M12 55.74 85.22 91.98 66.12 80.49 40.34
2011M1 55.76 85.18 91.96 66.09 80.52 40.31
2011M2 55.65 85.08 91.96 66.01 80.51 40.29
2011M3 55.65 84.96 91.92 65.77 80.55 40.3
2011M4 55.62 84.86 91.82 65.53 80.61 40.45
2011M5 55.45 84.85 91.83 65.24 80.62 40.55
2011M6 55.3 84.71 91.81 65.04 80.5 40.58
2011M7 55.06 84.62 91.77 64.97 80.38 40.59
2011M8 55.02 84.55 91.72 64.95 80.34 40.57
2011M9 55.01 84.48 91.74 65.05 80.24 40.61
2011M10 55.03 84.37 91.88 65.18 80.05 40.6
2011M11 55.09 84.33 91.89 65.35 79.87 40.59
2011M12 55.18 84.42 91.94 65.44 79.79 40.61
2012M1 55.18 84.46 91.99 65.47 79.81 40.62
2012M2 55.2 84.49 92 65.35 79.83 40.67
2012M3 55.12 84.52 92.03 65.2 79.85 40.66
2012M4 55.01 84.51 92 65.09 79.88 40.64
2012M5 54.99 84.43 92 64.97 80.01 40.68
2012M6 55.05 84.39 91.97 64.85 80.06 40.7
2012M7 55.26 84.32 92.01 64.76 80.11 40.7
2012M8 55.14 84.2 92.06 64.74 80.06 40.69
2012M9 55.11 84.11 92.12 64.66 80.07 40.69
2012M10 55.19 84.18 92.18 64.58 80.12 40.74
2012M11 55.21 84.18 92.14 64.42 80.07 40.78
2012M12 55.17 84.13 92.16 64.3 80.05 40.82
2013M1 55.21 84.07 92.08 64.14 79.91 40.92
2013M2 55.31 84.07 92.05 63.92 79.84 40.97
2013M3 55.22 84.04 92 63.89 79.69 40.96
2013M4 55.14 83.96 91.99 63.76 79.54 40.92
2013M5 55.11 83.95 92.04 63.91 79.53 40.85
2013M6 55.25 83.94 92.03 63.91 79.51 40.79
2013M7 55.15 83.9 92.11 64.01 79.56 40.71
2013M8 55.11 83.82 92.06 64.06 79.59 40.69
2013M9 55.31 83.81 92 63.94 79.67 40.63
2013M10 55.27 83.68 91.83 63.77 79.7 40.56
2013M11 55.21 83.65 91.73 63.41 79.72 40.48
2013M12 55.02 83.48 91.62 63.24 79.71 40.39
2014M1 55.01 83.38 91.47 63.07 79.73 40.32
2014M2 55.03 83.35 91.4 63.12 79.73 40.26
2014M3 55.23 83.4 91.34 63.21 79.76 40.28
2014M4 55.33 83.44 91.4 63.39 79.79 40.34
2014M5 55.49 83.35 91.4 63.55 79.72 40.37
2014M6 55.56 83.35 91.51 63.47 79.67 40.42

Note: 6-month moving averages. Data are seasonally adjusted by authors.

Source: Current Population Survey microdata.

Figure 4: Select Participation Rates by Age Gender and Education. B. LFPR for 16-24 Year Olds and Men 25-54 without a College Degree

Year_Month 16-24 25-54 males no college degree
1976M6 65.5 92.79
1976M7 65.75 92.83
1976M8 65.83 92.86
1976M9 65.85 92.89
1976M10 65.82 92.85
1976M11 65.88 92.8
1976M12 65.99 92.72
1977M1 65.94 92.64
1977M2 66.13 92.6
1977M3 66.4 92.6
1977M4 66.51 92.63
1977M5 66.57 92.65
1977M6 66.85 92.69
1977M7 67.01 92.65
1977M8 67.14 92.61
1977M9 67.21 92.61
1977M10 67.4 92.65
1977M11 67.67 92.69
1977M12 67.63 92.74
1978M1 67.74 92.87
1978M2 67.72 92.9
1978M3 67.77 92.93
1978M4 67.88 92.85
1978M5 67.94 92.81
1978M6 68.18 92.7
1978M7 68.35 92.61
1978M8 68.62 92.58
1978M9 68.84 92.53
1978M10 68.98 92.56
1978M11 69.08 92.6
1978M12 69.14 92.7
1979M1 69.2 92.79
1979M2 69.27 92.92
1979M3 69.34 92.97
1979M4 69.37 92.96
1979M5 69.3 92.89
1979M6 69.21 92.86
1979M7 69.18 92.86
1979M8 68.95 92.87
1979M9 68.92 92.88
1979M10 68.85 92.89
1979M11 68.91 92.91
1979M12 69.04 92.86
1980M1 69 92.8
1980M2 69.07 92.64
1980M3 68.93 92.54
1980M4 68.82 92.48
1980M5 68.77 92.46
1980M6 68.56 92.46
1980M7 68.53 92.46
1980M8 68.37 92.47
1980M9 68.34 92.53
1980M10 68.42 92.53
1980M11 68.39 92.54
1980M12 68.4 92.5
1981M1 68.42 92.5
1981M2 68.62 92.48
1981M3 68.68 92.46
1981M4 68.73 92.52
1981M5 68.72 92.58
1981M6 68.51 92.62
1981M7 68.32 92.58
1981M8 68.13 92.61
1981M9 67.98 92.56
1981M10 67.83 92.46
1981M11 67.73 92.34
1981M12 67.79 92.29
1982M1 67.76 92.25
1982M2 67.81 92.21
1982M3 67.84 92.25
1982M4 67.81 92.27
1982M5 67.82 92.37
1982M6 67.68 92.4
1982M7 67.63 92.4
1982M8 67.57 92.36
1982M9 67.54 92.26
1982M10 67.51 92.24
1982M11 67.52 92.14
1982M12 67.72 92.09
1983M1 67.8 92.07
1983M2 67.74 92.07
1983M3 67.61 92.12
1983M4 67.48 92.11
1983M5 67.2 92.13
1983M6 67.28 92.15
1983M7 67.34 92.16
1983M8 67.51 92.18
1983M9 67.67 92.18
1983M10 67.73 92.15
1983M11 67.99 92.13
1983M12 67.89 92.11
1984M1 67.81 92.08
1984M2 67.66 92.08
1984M3 67.64 91.99
1984M4 67.76 91.98
1984M5 67.84 91.97
1984M6 68.02 91.99
1984M7 68.18 92.08
1984M8 68.15 92.09
1984M9 68.24 92.13
1984M10 68.27 92.15
1984M11 68.33 92.13
1984M12 68.31 92.13
1985M1 68.3 92.06
1985M2 68.5 92.04
1985M3 68.57 92.05
1985M4 68.63 92.09
1985M5 68.65 92.05
1985M6 68.48 91.98
1985M7 68.46 91.94
1985M8 68.28 91.89
1985M9 68.24 91.87
1985M10 68.29 91.82
1985M11 68.28 91.82
1985M12 68.45 91.82
1986M1 68.35 91.82
1986M2 68.61 91.82
1986M3 68.74 91.79
1986M4 68.77 91.73
1986M5 68.8 91.73
1986M6 68.81 91.74
1986M7 68.95 91.69
1986M8 68.83 91.68
1986M9 68.79 91.71
1986M10 68.76 91.73
1986M11 68.74 91.77
1986M12 68.72 91.76
1987M1 68.73 91.87
1987M2 68.88 91.85
1987M3 68.81 91.84
1987M4 68.75 91.8
1987M5 68.81 91.74
1987M6 68.63 91.69
1987M7 68.54 91.6
1987M8 68.48 91.56
1987M9 68.39 91.47
1987M10 68.37 91.42
1987M11 68.28 91.34
1987M12 68.45 91.28
1988M1 68.59 91.21
1988M2 68.59 91.18
1988M3 68.57 91.18
1988M4 68.53 91.2
1988M5 68.38 91.21
1988M6 68.37 91.21
1988M7 68.33 91.22
1988M8 68.33 91.23
1988M9 68.48 91.21
1988M10 68.52 91.17
1988M11 68.62 91.15
1988M12 68.61 91.16
1989M1 68.6 91.2
1989M2 68.51 91.18
1989M3 68.44 91.18
1989M4 68.48 91.21
1989M5 68.54 91.19
1989M6 68.73 91.19
1989M7 68.85 91.17
1989M8 69.05 91.16
1989M9 69.02 91.21
1989M10 68.96 91.26
1989M11 69.01 91.38
1989M12 68.69 91.45
1990M1 68.4 91.43
1990M2 68.09 91.41
1990M3 68.1 91.31
1990M4 68.07 91.2
1990M5 67.89 91.11
1990M6 67.77 91.02
1990M7 67.67 90.96
1990M8 67.5 90.95
1990M9 67.3 90.95
1990M10 67.12 90.95
1990M11 66.95 90.92
1990M12 66.92 90.91
1991M1 66.95 90.88
1991M2 66.96 90.87
1991M3 66.9 90.83
1991M4 66.79 90.86
1991M5 66.68 90.76
1991M6 66.51 90.64
1991M7 66.27 90.58
1991M8 65.99 90.41
1991M9 65.85 90.39
1991M10 65.81 90.2
1991M11 65.85 90.17
1991M12 65.9 90.13
1992M1 65.93 90.16
1992M2 66.11 90.21
1992M3 66.09 90.2
1992M4 65.97 90.3
1992M5 65.93 90.38
1992M6 65.98 90.48
1992M7 66.1 90.45
1992M8 66.16 90.48
1992M9 66.35 90.42
1992M10 66.39 90.29
1992M11 66.49 90.03
1992M12 66.55 89.84
1993M1 66.51 89.76
1993M2 66.5 89.61
1993M3 66.37 89.59
1993M4 66.37 89.58
1993M5 66.4 89.71
1993M6 66.27 89.78
1993M7 66.25 89.79
1993M8 66.19 89.8
1993M9 66.13 89.67
1993M10 66.14 89.6
1993M11 66.02 89.5
1993M12 65.99 89.36
1994M1 65.99 89.12
1994M2 66.04 88.95
1994M3 66.11 88.79
1994M4 66.2 88.56
1994M5 66.27 88.33
1994M6 66.4 88.09
1994M7 66.41 87.96
1994M8 66.53 87.82
1994M9 66.52 87.76
1994M10 66.62 87.82
1994M11 66.64 87.91
1994M12 66.7 88.07
1995M1 66.79 88.17
1995M2 66.71 88.25
1995M3 66.84 88.28
1995M4 66.83 88.23
1995M5 66.83 88.24
1995M6 66.82 88.14
1995M7 66.76 88.02
1995M8 66.76 87.94
1995M9 66.64 87.96
1995M10 66.42 87.99
1995M11 66.25 87.85
1995M12 66.06 87.83
1996M1 65.87 87.91
1996M2 65.65 87.99
1996M3 65.58 88.05
1996M4 65.61 88.09
1996M5 65.75 88.2
1996M6 65.73 88.25
1996M7 65.8 88.35
1996M8 65.73 88.45
1996M9 65.77 88.54
1996M10 65.82 88.61
1996M11 65.71 88.71
1996M12 65.7 88.77
1997M1 65.64 88.82
1997M2 65.76 88.77
1997M3 65.75 88.68
1997M4 65.71 88.64
1997M5 65.82 88.52
1997M6 65.83 88.55
1997M7 65.91 88.57
1997M8 65.86 88.62
1997M9 65.77 88.65
1997M10 65.63 88.63
1997M11 65.56 88.7
1997M12 65.59 88.69
1998M1 65.74 88.6
1998M2 65.94 88.53
1998M3 66.14 88.57
1998M4 66.25 88.63
1998M5 66.29 88.72
1998M6 66.37 88.76
1998M7 66.23 88.85
1998M8 66.18 88.93
1998M9 66.22 88.91
1998M10 66.28 88.86
1998M11 66.24 88.78
1998M12 66.21 88.72
1999M1 66.14 88.69
1999M2 66.06 88.66
1999M3 65.9 88.6
1999M4 65.75 88.59
1999M5 65.71 88.56
1999M6 65.61 88.54
1999M7 65.67 88.45
1999M8 65.67 88.38
1999M9 65.71 88.36
1999M10 65.82 88.3
1999M11 65.83 88.31
1999M12 65.97 88.32
2000M1 66.05 88.42
2000M2 66.09 88.49
2000M3 66.1 88.5
2000M4 66.2 88.46
2000M5 66.2 88.31
2000M6 66.21 88.3
2000M7 66.05 88.18
2000M8 66.11 88.03
2000M9 66.13 87.97
2000M10 66.13 88.01
2000M11 66.19 88.13
2000M12 66.21 88.08
2001M1 66.34 88.06
2001M2 66.3 88.07
2001M3 66.33 88.07
2001M4 66.21 87.97
2001M5 65.84 87.85
2001M6 65.53 87.68
2001M7 65.26 87.52
2001M8 64.81 87.38
2001M9 64.57 87.25
2001M10 64.39 87.17
2001M11 64.48 87.1
2001M12 64.38 87.14
2002M1 64.14 87.18
2002M2 64.19 87.24
2002M3 64.16 87.31
2002M4 63.99 87.36
2002M5 63.9 87.41
2002M6 63.9 87.41
2002M7 63.99 87.38
2002M8 63.93 87.38
2002M9 63.74 87.4
2002M10 63.62 87.36
2002M11 63.46 87.28
2002M12 63.26 87.22
2003M1 63.13 87.15
2003M2 62.99 87.07
2003M3 62.73 86.99
2003M4 62.59 87.03
2003M5 62.44 87.09
2003M6 62.36 87.16
2003M7 62.16 87.25
2003M8 61.97 87.29
2003M9 61.99 87.32
2003M10 61.86 87.28
2003M11 61.69 87.31
2003M12 61.4 87.37
2004M1 61.48 87.44
2004M2 61.44 87.48
2004M3 61.3 87.42
2004M4 61.36 87.35
2004M5 61.4 87.27
2004M6 61.46 87.17
2004M7 61.35 87.11
2004M8 61.39 87.06
2004M9 61.4 87.07
2004M10 61.5 87.13
2004M11 61.55 87.1
2004M12 61.71 87.04
2005M1 61.74 86.91
2005M2 61.71 86.85
2005M3 61.75 86.8
2005M4 61.64 86.81
2005M5 61.63 86.92
2005M6 61.57 87.03
2005M7 61.56 87.13
2005M8 61.61 87.2
2005M9 61.55 87.27
2005M10 61.53 87.28
2005M11 61.48 87.2
2005M12 61.33 87.11
2006M1 61.25 87.01
2006M2 61.23 86.92
2006M3 61.3 86.93
2006M4 61.21 86.96
2006M5 61.15 87.09
2006M6 61.24 87.21
2006M7 61.29 87.26
2006M8 61.33 87.33
2006M9 61.25 87.26
2006M10 61.25 87.21
2006M11 61.23 87.14
2006M12 61.24 87.14
2007M1 61.18 87.25
2007M2 60.92 87.35
2007M3 60.84 87.34
2007M4 60.65 87.35
2007M5 60.35 87.27
2007M6 60.11 87.16
2007M7 59.84 87.07
2007M8 59.61 86.96
2007M9 59.55 87
2007M10 59.53 86.99
2007M11 59.72 87.05
2007M12 59.74 87.16
2008M1 59.78 87.14
2008M2 59.75 87.09
2008M3 59.52 87.08
2008M4 59.43 86.98
2008M5 59.46 86.89
2008M6 59.39 86.8
2008M7 59.36 86.82
2008M8 59.42 86.9
2008M9 59.47 86.9
2008M10 59.39 86.94
2008M11 58.93 86.92
2008M12 58.8 86.84
2009M1 58.58 86.71
2009M2 58.5 86.5
2009M3 58.36 86.22
2009M4 58.32 86.04
2009M5 58.39 85.93
2009M6 58.24 85.83
2009M7 58.11 85.7
2009M8 57.82 85.74
2009M9 57.5 85.85
2009M10 57.01 85.8
2009M11 56.63 85.71
2009M12 56.26 85.59
2010M1 55.99 85.54
2010M2 55.84 85.46
2010M3 55.76 85.45
2010M4 55.94 85.51
2010M5 56.03 85.49
2010M6 56.02 85.45
2010M7 56 85.44
2010M8 56.04 85.39
2010M9 55.98 85.32
2010M10 55.81 85.25
2010M11 55.76 85.19
2010M12 55.74 85.22
2011M1 55.76 85.18
2011M2 55.65 85.08
2011M3 55.65 84.96
2011M4 55.62 84.86
2011M5 55.45 84.85
2011M6 55.3 84.71
2011M7 55.06 84.62
2011M8 55.02 84.55
2011M9 55.01 84.48
2011M10 55.03 84.37
2011M11 55.09 84.33
2011M12 55.18 84.42
2012M1 55.18 84.46
2012M2 55.2 84.49
2012M3 55.12 84.52
2012M4 55.01 84.51
2012M5 54.99 84.43
2012M6 55.05 84.39
2012M7 55.26 84.32
2012M8 55.14 84.2
2012M9 55.11 84.11
2012M10 55.19 84.18
2012M11 55.21 84.18
2012M12 55.17 84.13
2013M1 55.21 84.07
2013M2 55.31 84.07
2013M3 55.22 84.04
2013M4 55.14 83.96
2013M5 55.11 83.95
2013M6 55.25 83.94
2013M7 55.15 83.9
2013M8 55.11 83.82
2013M9 55.31 83.81
2013M10 55.27 83.68
2013M11 55.21 83.65
2013M12 55.02 83.48
2014M1 55.01 83.38
2014M2 55.03 83.35
2014M3 55.23 83.4
2014M4 55.33 83.44
2014M5 55.49 83.35
2014M6 55.56 83.35

Note: 6-month moving averages. Data are seasonally adjusted by authors.

Source: Current Population Survey microdata.

Figure 5: Labor Force Participation and Enrollment 16-24 Year Olds. A. 16-18 Year Olds

year Enrollment rate Participation rate enrolled Participation rate not enrolled
1985 66 41.17 66.71
1986 67.18 41.98 67.53
1987 67.39 42.57 67.46
1988 67.24 42.66 68.13
1989 67.43 43.66 67.57
1990 68.89 40.67 64.81
1991 69.36 39.4 62.33
1992 69.82 39.3 62.86
1993 70.7 39.38 62.95
1994 72.18 42.27 64.65
1995 71.78 42.36 66.51
1996 73.52 41.44 66.01
1997 74.06 40.57 65.31
1998 74.82 42.71 66.39
1999 75.37 41.26 66.21
2000 74.64 41.07 66.18
2001 76.16 38.9 65.73
2002 77.32 36.52 64.39
2003 77.98 34.02 60.92
2004 79.31 33.79 60.71
2005 78.8 33.62 60.16
2006 79.05 33.47 60.78
2007 80.03 31.63 58.08
2008 80.15 29.93 57.22
2009 81.2 26.95 55.1
2010 82.16 24.66 53.29
2011 82.52 23.28 52.05
2012 83.06 23.82 52.29

Note: Annual averages.

Source: Current Population Survey microdata.

Figure 5: Labor Force Participation and Enrollment 16-24 Year Olds. B. 19-24 Year Olds

year Enrollment rate Participation rate enrolled Participation rate not enrolled
1985 31.69 52.57 81.82
1986 31.43 53.4 81.92
1987 33.38 53.83 81.84
1988 34.87 55.05 81.68
1989 36.25 54.83 82.42
1990 36.88 54.45 81.46
1991 37.39 54.79 79.46
1992 38.08 54.81 80.25
1993 38.41 54.44 80.12
1994 40.12 56.65 79.41
1995 39.61 56.73 79.41
1996 40.98 56.4 79.62
1997 42.01 57.34 81.5
1998 42.39 56.93 82.02
1999 43.03 57.32 81.5
2000 42.25 57.81 82.22
2001 43.88 56.36 80.85
2002 45.13 55.34 80.06
2003 45.5 53.98 80.32
2004 46.81 54.48 79.85
2005 46.34 54.95 78.47
2006 46.07 53.41 79.79
2007 47.58 51.95 79.53
2008 48.39 53.14 78.84
2009 49.95 50.54 77.49
2010 51.05 49.61 76.01
2011 52.03 48.66 76.76
2012 52.71 48.22 76.47

Note: Annual averages.

Source: Current Population Survey microdata.

Figure 6: Actual and Counterfactual Participation Rate for 16-24 Year Olds

year Participation rate Cfct. participation rate fixing enrollment rate in 1985
1985 68.43 68.43
1986 68.74 68.8
1987 68.52 69.03
1988 68.49 69.2
1989 68.73 69.62
1990 67.33 68.49
1991 66.17 67.44
1992 66.27 67.82
1993 66.12 67.88
1994 66.55 68.67
1995 66.44 68.64
1996 65.7 68.59
1997 65.71 69
1998 66.29 69.67
1999 65.8 69.36
2000 66.21 69.51
2001 64.94 68.7
2002 63.59 67.81
2003 61.88 66.44
2004 61.59 66.39
2005 61.46 66.04
2006 61.24 66.17
2007 59.9 65.43
2008 59.09 64.87
2009 57.24 63.55
2010 55.87 62.63
2011 55.22 62.31
2012 55.12 62.36

Note: Annual averages.

Source: Current Population Survey microdata.

Figure 7: Labor Market Polarization and Labor Force Participation - Share Employed by Job type. A. All Persons 16+

Year_Month Managerial professional technican occs. Offic admin. production wkr. occs. Personal service food prep sales occs. Const. extraction other occs.
1985M6 33.94 25.19 25.72 15.17
1985M7 33.88 25.21 25.72 15.18
1985M8 33.88 25.21 25.72 15.18
1985M9 33.9 25.2 25.74 15.15
1985M10 33.92 25.2 25.75 15.11
1985M11 33.97 25.18 25.8 15.03
1985M12 33.99 25.19 25.82 14.97
1986M1 34.13 25.15 25.81 14.9
1986M2 34.15 25.14 25.89 14.81
1986M3 34.13 25.15 25.92 14.79
1986M4 34.11 25.14 25.98 14.77
1986M5 34.06 25.16 26 14.79
1986M6 34.05 25.16 25.99 14.82
1986M7 34.03 25.16 26 14.81
1986M8 34.04 25.17 25.98 14.81
1986M9 34.09 25.14 25.95 14.81
1986M10 34.12 25.14 25.94 14.8
1986M11 34.21 25.1 25.89 14.79
1986M12 34.29 25.04 25.9 14.75
1987M1 34.32 25.02 25.93 14.74
1987M2 34.36 24.98 25.9 14.76
1987M3 34.38 24.95 25.91 14.77
1987M4 34.37 24.96 25.88 14.78
1987M5 34.32 24.97 25.93 14.8
1987M6 34.3 25.01 25.94 14.77
1987M7 34.34 25.03 25.88 14.75
1987M8 34.4 25.02 25.85 14.73
1987M9 34.45 25.03 25.81 14.7
1987M10 34.56 24.98 25.77 14.69
1987M11 34.57 24.98 25.75 14.69
1987M12 34.61 24.97 25.73 14.68
1988M1 34.67 24.95 25.73 14.66
1988M2 34.71 24.93 25.73 14.63
1988M3 34.81 24.88 25.69 14.61
1988M4 34.92 24.8 25.69 14.58
1988M5 35.12 24.66 25.64 14.59
1988M6 35.23 24.57 25.61 14.6
1988M7 35.32 24.47 25.62 14.58
1988M8 35.39 24.39 25.66 14.56
1988M9 35.41 24.34 25.72 14.53
1988M10 35.38 24.35 25.79 14.5
1988M11 35.35 24.37 25.83 14.44
1988M12 35.38 24.38 25.83 14.41
1989M1 35.4 24.39 25.8 14.41
1989M2 35.46 24.42 25.75 14.38
1989M3 35.5 24.43 25.7 14.36
1989M4 35.59 24.45 25.6 14.35
1989M5 35.73 24.43 25.53 14.32
1989M6 35.81 24.4 25.5 14.3
1989M7 35.85 24.37 25.48 14.29
1989M8 35.88 24.36 25.48 14.28
1989M9 35.91 24.33 25.47 14.29
1989M10 36.01 24.27 25.44 14.29
1989M11 36.01 24.28 25.42 14.28
1989M12 35.99 24.29 25.43 14.29
1990M1 36 24.24 25.49 14.28
1990M2 35.97 24.22 25.54 14.27
1990M3 35.93 24.21 25.61 14.26
1990M4 35.82 24.22 25.71 14.25
1990M5 35.74 24.22 25.79 14.25
1990M6 35.72 24.22 25.84 14.23
1990M7 35.7 24.25 25.84 14.21
1990M8 35.73 24.25 25.84 14.18
1990M9 35.74 24.27 25.83 14.15
1990M10 35.77 24.27 25.84 14.14
1990M11 35.8 24.24 25.83 14.12
1990M12 35.8 24.18 25.85 14.18
1991M1 35.83 24.13 25.84 14.21
1991M2 35.89 24.05 25.82 14.25
1991M3 35.95 23.97 25.81 14.28
1991M4 35.99 23.92 25.8 14.3
1991M5 36.03 23.87 25.82 14.3
1991M6 36.07 23.88 25.83 14.22
1991M7 36.11 23.85 25.85 14.18
1991M8 36.1 23.86 25.91 14.14
1991M9 36.1 23.86 25.94 14.11
1991M10 36.13 23.88 25.94 14.06
1991M11 36.12 23.82 26.02 14.03
1991M12 36.21 23.79 25.99 14.01
1992M1 36.28 23.85 25.91 13.96
1992M2 36.37 23.86 25.84 13.93
1992M3 36.41 23.92 25.8 13.85
1992M4 36.5 23.91 25.77 13.81
1992M5 36.57 23.98 25.65 13.79
1992M6 36.55 23.98 25.64 13.81
1992M7 36.53 23.95 25.61 13.9
1992M8 36.54 23.9 25.59 13.96
1992M9 36.59 23.77 25.59 14.06
1992M10 36.57 23.7 25.61 14.12
1992M11 36.6 23.63 25.62 14.14
1992M12 36.65 23.59 25.64 14.12
1993M1 36.74 23.5 25.74 14.01
1993M2 36.81 23.46 25.81 13.9
1993M3 36.9 23.44 25.83 13.81
1993M4 36.94 23.45 25.84 13.77
1993M5 36.99 23.38 25.86 13.76
1993M6 37.03 23.3 25.85 13.79
1993M7 37.02 23.28 25.85 13.84
1993M8 36.99 23.24 25.81 13.97
1993M9 36.97 23.2 25.8 14.04
1993M10 37.02 23.14 25.78 14.06
1993M11 37.06 23.11 25.76 14.07
1993M12 37.1 23.11 25.78 14.01
1994M1 37.17 23.1 25.74 13.99
1994M2 37.24 23.09 25.75 13.91
1994M3 37.32 23.08 25.73 13.84
1994M4 37.41 23.06 25.71 13.8
1994M5 37.52 23.05 25.65 13.79
1994M6 37.58 23.06 25.57 13.77
1994M7 37.65 23.03 25.56 13.76
1994M8 37.7 23.01 25.52 13.78
1994M9 37.78 23.01 25.47 13.76
1994M10 37.82 22.98 25.47 13.75
1994M11 37.86 22.99 25.44 13.71
1994M12 37.92 22.93 25.44 13.72
1995M1 37.96 22.88 25.44 13.72
1995M2 38.05 22.8 25.44 13.69
1995M3 38.05 22.75 25.46 13.72
1995M4 38.06 22.76 25.43 13.73
1995M5 38.14 22.71 25.45 13.7
1995M6 38.23 22.67 25.41 13.67
1995M7 38.4 22.65 25.35 13.62
1995M8 38.49 22.59 25.34 13.61
1995M9 38.59 22.57 25.28 13.59
1995M10 38.68 22.5 25.25 13.59
1995M11 38.69 22.46 25.25 13.61
1995M12 38.66 22.48 25.25 13.63
1996M1 38.61 22.44 25.27 13.68
1996M2 38.54 22.46 25.27 13.72
1996M3 38.51 22.42 25.31 13.74
1996M4 38.5 22.38 25.38 13.71
1996M5 38.49 22.36 25.46 13.68
1996M6 38.53 22.28 25.51 13.67
1996M7 38.55 22.28 25.55 13.62
1996M8 38.63 22.25 25.54 13.6
1996M9 38.66 22.22 25.54 13.6
1996M10 38.74 22.18 25.48 13.62
1996M11 38.83 22.14 25.4 13.64
1996M12 38.89 22.14 25.35 13.64
1997M1 38.99 22.1 25.26 13.65
1997M2 39.06 22.06 25.21 13.66
1997M3 39.16 22.01 25.16 13.66
1997M4 39.22 21.96 25.12 13.67
1997M5 39.23 21.91 25.14 13.7
1997M6 39.26 21.85 25.16 13.71
1997M7 39.24 21.86 25.2 13.71
1997M8 39.24 21.85 25.25 13.67
1997M9 39.22 21.84 25.33 13.62
1997M10 39.2 21.85 25.4 13.58
1997M11 39.21 21.85 25.39 13.56
1997M12 39.22 21.83 25.4 13.57
1998M1 39.24 21.77 25.42 13.57
1998M2 39.27 21.76 25.38 13.58
1998M3 39.34 21.75 25.32 13.58
1998M4 39.43 21.7 25.22 13.62
1998M5 39.51 21.62 25.19 13.66
1998M6 39.54 21.59 25.18 13.66
1998M7 39.61 21.55 25.18 13.65
1998M8 39.65 21.52 25.22 13.62
1998M9 39.72 21.46 25.25 13.58
1998M10 39.81 21.39 25.29 13.52
1998M11 39.89 21.36 25.29 13.47
1998M12 39.99 21.3 25.27 13.45
1999M1 40.04 21.24 25.25 13.47
1999M2 40.12 21.16 25.22 13.49
1999M3 40.14 21.08 25.21 13.55
1999M4 40.22 21.03 25.17 13.57
1999M5 40.31 20.98 25.15 13.56
1999M6 40.41 20.92 25.12 13.54
1999M7 40.55 20.85 25.08 13.52
1999M8 40.64 20.78 25.11 13.49
1999M9 40.74 20.74 25.07 13.47
1999M10 40.75 20.72 25.06 13.49
1999M11 40.69 20.71 25.04 13.55
1999M12 40.67 20.71 25.05 13.59
2000M1 40.59 20.72 25.09 13.6
2000M2 40.53 20.74 25.08 13.63
2000M3 40.44 20.76 25.15 13.63
2000M4 40.33 20.77 25.3 13.6
2000M5 40.35 20.77 25.35 13.54
2000M6 40.35 20.76 25.37 13.52
2000M7 40.37 20.73 25.35 13.54
2000M8 40.41 20.69 25.32 13.6
2000M9 40.46 20.62 25.28 13.64
2000M10 40.52 20.6 25.22 13.66
2000M11 40.55 20.56 25.24 13.63
2000M12 40.57 20.57 25.28 13.58
2014M1 40.64 20.54 25.3 13.51
2014M2 40.76 20.5 25.31 13.4
2014M3 40.88 20.46 25.27 13.37
2014M4 40.98 20.39 25.26 13.37
2014M5 41.07 20.35 25.17 13.42
2014M6 41.17 20.26 25.12 13.44
2014M7 41.22 20.18 25.09 13.5
2014M8 41.29 20.13 25.03 13.57
2014M9 41.31 20.04 25.06 13.59
2014M10 41.4 19.96 25.02 13.61
2014M11 41.44 19.88 25.09 13.57
2014M12 41.46 19.82 25.12 13.6
2014M1 41.47 19.77 25.18 13.58
2014M2 41.43 19.71 25.27 13.57
2014M3 41.41 19.69 25.32 13.58
2014M4 41.37 19.64 25.41 13.59
2014M5 41.35 19.56 25.48 13.63
2014M6 41.31 19.48 25.58 13.65
2014M7 41.33 19.4 25.63 13.64
2014M8 41.39 19.32 25.69 13.6
2014M9 41.46 19.24 25.72 13.58
2014M10 41.53 19.14 25.74 13.57
2014M11 41.6 19.11 25.71 13.55
2014M12 41.66 19.07 25.71 13.55
2014M1 41.73 19.03 25.68 13.56
2014M2 41.81 19.03 25.57 13.58
2014M3 41.89 18.99 25.55 13.56
2014M4 41.96 19.03 25.49 13.53
2014M5 42.04 18.98 25.48 13.52
2014M6 42.16 18.96 25.38 13.5
2014M7 42.2 18.95 25.37 13.5
2014M8 42.15 18.91 25.41 13.54
2014M9 42.13 18.88 25.37 13.61
2014M10 42.14 18.83 25.34 13.68
2014M11 42.16 18.81 25.28 13.74
2014M12 42.17 18.74 25.3 13.78
2014M1 42.19 18.67 25.31 13.83
2014M2 42.25 18.6 25.32 13.83
2014M3 42.33 18.54 25.36 13.77
2014M4 42.35 18.5 25.41 13.76
2014M5 42.33 18.47 25.44 13.77
2014M6 42.28 18.45 25.45 13.83
2014M7 42.21 18.49 25.47 13.83
2014M8 42.14 18.52 25.48 13.86
2014M9 42.05 18.55 25.51 13.89
2014M10 42.01 18.53 25.55 13.89
2014M11 41.98 18.48 25.62 13.91
2014M12 41.96 18.48 25.69 13.87
2014M1 41.96 18.41 25.73 13.89
2014M2 41.95 18.36 25.79 13.9
2014M3 41.91 18.31 25.84 13.95
2014M4 41.89 18.3 25.83 14
2014M5 41.87 18.31 25.85 13.99
2014M6 41.88 18.31 25.83 14
2014M7 41.9 18.28 25.81 14.02
2014M8 41.94 18.24 25.79 14.03
2014M9 41.97 18.2 25.78 14.04
2014M10 41.99 18.18 25.78 14.03
2014M11 42.01 18.14 25.77 14.07
2014M12 42.08 18.1 25.75 14.05
2014M1 42.09 18.1 25.77 14.04
2014M2 42.09 18.09 25.78 14.05
2014M3 42.07 18.1 25.8 14.04
2014M4 42.07 18.05 25.85 14.04
2014M5 42.08 17.98 25.93 14.02
2014M6 41.99 17.93 26.05 14.04
2014M7 42.01 17.88 26.1 14.01
2014M8 41.96 17.88 26.16 13.99
2014M9 41.96 17.85 26.18 13.99
2014M10 41.98 17.86 26.17 13.97
2014M11 42.01 17.86 26.16 13.97
2014M12 42.12 17.81 26.1 13.97
2014M1 42.17 17.77 26.07 13.98
2014M2 42.29 17.71 26.05 13.96
2014M3 42.35 17.69 26.06 13.92
2014M4 42.41 17.67 26.05 13.88
2014M5 42.45 17.68 26.01 13.87
2014M6 42.47 17.69 26 13.84
2014M7 42.47 17.7 26.01 13.83
2014M8 42.51 17.68 26.01 13.8
2014M9 42.55 17.62 26.02 13.79
2014M10 42.53 17.61 26.03 13.82
2014M11 42.54 17.6 26.02 13.84
2014M12 42.53 17.63 25.95 13.89
2014M1 42.54 17.64 25.94 13.89
2014M2 42.56 17.66 25.92 13.87
2014M3 42.6 17.68 25.89 13.85
2014M4 42.65 17.68 25.89 13.79
2014M5 42.72 17.66 25.91 13.71
2014M6 42.83 17.63 25.91 13.63
2014M7 42.97 17.57 25.87 13.58
2014M8 43.08 17.52 25.86 13.53
2014M9 43.21 17.45 25.85 13.47
2014M10 43.33 17.38 25.86 13.42
2014M11 43.44 17.31 25.89 13.36
2014M12 43.47 17.21 26 13.34
2014M1 43.49 17.13 26.08 13.32
2014M2 43.5 17.06 26.17 13.29
2014M3 43.56 16.95 26.24 13.28
2014M4 43.61 16.85 26.29 13.25
2014M5 43.69 16.75 26.34 13.22
2014M6 43.81 16.68 26.37 13.12
2014M7 43.92 16.63 26.45 13
2014M8 44 16.59 26.47 12.92
2014M9 44.06 16.56 26.52 12.84
2014M10 44.2 16.53 26.52 12.74
2014M11 44.25 16.53 26.53 12.71
2014M12 44.31 16.54 26.51 12.66
2014M1 44.34 16.56 26.45 12.67
2014M2 44.33 16.57 26.45 12.66
2014M3 44.29 16.62 26.46 12.66
2014M4 44.12 16.68 26.49 12.72
2014M5 44 16.76 26.52 12.71
2014M6 43.86 16.85 26.57 12.71
2014M7 43.7 16.95 26.61 12.72
2014M8 43.56 17.02 26.64 12.75
2014M9 43.49 17.07 26.63 12.78
2014M10 43.45 17.09 26.65 12.8
2014M11 43.43 17.07 26.71 12.8
2014M12 43.43 17.04 26.73 12.82
2014M1 43.48 17.01 26.73 12.81
2014M2 43.6 16.94 26.7 12.79
2014M3 43.7 16.89 26.68 12.77
2014M4 43.79 16.84 26.66 12.73
2014M5 43.87 16.8 26.61 12.72
2014M6 43.9 16.75 26.61 12.73
2014M7 43.93 16.69 26.61 12.75
2014M8 43.88 16.69 26.63 12.76
2014M9 43.8 16.69 26.69 12.78
2014M10 43.7 16.71 26.78 12.79
2014M11 43.64 16.73 26.79 12.84
2014M12 43.62 16.74 26.8 12.84
2014M1 43.68 16.73 26.8 12.82
2014M2 43.7 16.74 26.84 12.77
2014M3 43.76 16.73 26.83 12.72
2014M4 43.86 16.71 26.77 12.69
2014M5 43.94 16.68 26.76 12.62
2014M6 44.04 16.64 26.75 12.56
2014M7 44.06 16.62 26.78 12.52
2014M8 44.16 16.56 26.74 12.5
2014M9 44.24 16.53 26.71 12.47
2014M10 44.3 16.49 26.72 12.46
2014M11 44.38 16.49 26.7 12.44
2014M12 44.39 16.48 26.71 12.42
2014M1 44.39 16.48 26.73 12.43
2014M2 44.35 16.52 26.72 12.45
2014M3 44.29 16.56 26.73 12.47
2014M4 44.23 16.55 26.76 12.48
2014M5 44.17 16.56 26.76 12.5
2014M6 44.15 16.52 26.78 12.54
2014M7 44.17 16.49 26.74 12.58
2014M8 44.19 16.4 26.78 12.59
2014M9 44.22 16.34 26.79 12.61
2014M10 44.25 16.32 26.78 12.61
2014M11 44.29 16.3 26.79 12.61
2014M12 44.24 16.36 26.77 12.63
2014M1 44.2 16.4 26.79 12.63
2014M2 44.19 16.42 26.77 12.65
2014M3 44.18 16.42 26.78 12.67
2014M4 44.18 16.38 26.79 12.68
2014M5 44.16 16.35 26.8 12.7
2014M6 44.22 16.32 26.78 12.68

Note: 6-month moving averages. Data are seasonally adjusted by authors.

Figure 7: Labor Market Polarization and Labor Force Participation - Share Employed by Job type. B. 25-54 Year Old Males without a College Degree

Year_Month Managerial professional technican occs. Offic admin. production wkr. occs. Personal service food prep sales occs. Const. extraction other occs.
1985M6 20.87 21.59 19.54 38.01
1985M7 20.79 21.44 19.78 37.97
1985M8 20.73 21.39 19.87 38.01
1985M9 20.71 21.36 20.01 37.99
1985M10 20.72 21.35 20.07 37.92
1985M11 20.77 21.27 20.15 37.83
1985M12 20.78 21.26 20.19 37.77
1986M1 20.89 21.26 20.2 37.67
1986M2 20.81 21.37 20.4 37.4
1986M3 20.59 21.49 20.39 37.46
1986M4 20.49 21.59 20.35 37.5
1986M5 20.39 21.8 20.27 37.52
1986M6 20.25 21.92 20.14 37.67
1986M7 20.24 22.03 20.04 37.66
1986M8 20.24 22.06 19.92 37.79
1986M9 20.35 22.02 19.9 37.78
1986M10 20.31 21.95 20.05 37.74
1986M11 20.3 21.82 20.15 37.74
1986M12 20.29 21.74 20.27 37.71
1987M1 20.18 21.63 20.33 37.88
1987M2 20.23 21.51 20.28 37.97
1987M3 20.23 21.44 20.31 37.97
1987M4 20.2 21.46 20.34 37.95
1987M5 20.19 21.39 20.43 37.99
1987M6 20.23 21.45 20.43 37.88
1987M7 20.22 21.54 20.38 37.85
1987M8 20.25 21.68 20.25 37.84
1987M9 20.26 21.77 20.21 37.81
1987M10 20.34 21.74 20.03 37.94
1987M11 20.23 21.81 19.97 37.99
1987M12 20.17 21.71 20.15 37.97
1988M1 20.25 21.67 20.28 37.79
1988M2 20.27 21.54 20.41 37.75
1988M3 20.37 21.35 20.45 37.77
1988M4 20.43 21.26 20.56 37.7
1988M5 20.57 21.17 20.61 37.64
1988M6 20.61 21.28 20.47 37.61
1988M7 20.61 21.22 20.46 37.71
1988M8 20.51 21.22 20.67 37.63
1988M9 20.47 21.31 20.72 37.55
1988M10 20.38 21.44 20.77 37.46
1988M11 20.39 21.45 20.72 37.45
1988M12 20.49 21.46 20.67 37.4
1989M1 20.64 21.4 20.55 37.41
1989M2 20.71 21.46 20.4 37.4
1989M3 20.7 21.54 20.38 37.34
1989M4 20.76 21.52 20.38 37.3
1989M5 20.84 21.47 20.39 37.28
1989M6 20.88 21.2 20.5 37.39
1989M7 20.8 21.24 20.62 37.34
1989M8 20.87 21.12 20.67 37.37
1989M9 20.82 21.03 20.67 37.51
1989M10 20.86 20.93 20.68 37.58
1989M11 20.81 21.02 20.65 37.54
1989M12 20.8 21.17 20.66 37.39
1990M1 20.74 21.15 20.72 37.4
1990M2 20.58 21.23 20.82 37.33
1990M3 20.56 21.18 20.93 37.29
1990M4 20.48 21.14 21.01 37.33
1990M5 20.43 21.08 21.11 37.37
1990M6 20.23 21.07 21.22 37.44
1990M7 20.25 21.08 21.26 37.39
1990M8 20.27 21.05 21.33 37.39
1990M9 20.28 21.14 21.37 37.24
1990M10 20.22 21.29 21.44 37.09
1990M11 20.13 21.31 21.56 37.03
1990M12 20.1 21.32 21.51 37.1
1991M1 19.95 21.37 21.55 37.17
1991M2 19.88 21.36 21.44 37.3
1991M3 19.85 21.27 21.34 37.53
1991M4 19.67 21.16 21.24 37.9
1991M5 19.64 21.13 21.21 38.01
1991M6 19.69 21.07 21.22 38.01
1991M7 19.74 21.03 21.25 37.96
1991M8 19.85 21.02 21.36 37.81
1991M9 19.7 21.09 21.51 37.72
1991M10 19.75 21.3 21.62 37.37
1991M11 19.63 21.4 21.7 37.3
1991M12 19.52 21.51 21.8 37.21
1992M1 19.56 21.53 21.81 37.14
1992M2 19.52 21.38 21.92 37.15
1992M3 19.54 21.38 22.06 37
1992M4 19.58 21.15 22.15 37.06
1992M5 19.67 21.09 22.13 37.06
1992M6 19.71 21.04 22.04 37.16
1992M7 19.57 21.06 21.93 37.38
1992M8 19.42 21.26 21.73 37.57
1992M9 19.52 21.17 21.51 37.8
1992M10 19.46 21.15 21.43 37.97
1992M11 19.51 21.05 21.46 37.99
1992M12 19.45 20.99 21.55 38.03
1993M1 19.47 20.94 21.72 37.91
1993M2 19.63 20.77 21.93 37.64
1993M3 19.62 20.78 22.13 37.45
1993M4 19.73 20.8 22.15 37.28
1993M5 19.77 20.74 22.2 37.25
1993M6 19.82 20.72 22.16 37.26
1993M7 19.8 20.69 22.15 37.31
1993M8 19.68 20.78 21.92 37.62
1993M9 19.6 20.8 21.76 37.83
1993M10 19.6 20.74 21.67 37.99
1993M11 19.61 20.78 21.53 38.09
1993M12 19.7 20.73 21.56 38.03
1994M1 19.84 20.72 21.45 38.01
1994M2 19.93 20.81 21.49 37.75
1994M3 20.03 20.89 21.42 37.65
1994M4 20.01 21.07 21.44 37.46
1994M5 19.89 21.24 21.4 37.44
1994M6 19.76 21.44 21.42 37.36
1994M7 19.62 21.45 21.58 37.33
1994M8 19.64 21.29 21.7 37.38
1994M9 19.71 21.25 21.82 37.24
1994M10 19.86 21.12 21.85 37.2
1994M11 20.1 21.03 21.81 37.1
1994M12 20.26 21.02 21.69 37.06
1995M1 20.38 21.12 21.5 37.02
1995M2 20.38 21.25 21.38 36.97
1995M3 20.3 21.36 21.35 36.97
1995M4 20.22 21.53 21.37 36.85
1995M5 20.25 21.64 21.46 36.61
1995M6 20.33 21.57 21.46 36.61
1995M7 20.42 21.47 21.45 36.63
1995M8 20.46 21.26 21.49 36.8
1995M9 20.56 21.07 21.42 36.96
1995M10 20.51 20.97 21.46 37.08
1995M11 20.29 20.92 21.5 37.31
1995M12 20.14 20.95 21.58 37.34
1996M1 20.04 20.98 21.63 37.36
1996M2 19.9 21.2 21.53 37.34
1996M3 19.82 21.24 21.62 37.32
1996M4 19.8 21.15 21.68 37.34
1996M5 19.86 21.08 21.75 37.29
1996M6 19.82 20.98 21.87 37.32
1996M7 19.78 21.03 21.95 37.24
1996M8 19.78 21.03 22.03 37.21
1996M9 19.71 21.15 21.99 37.18
1996M10 19.73 21.27 21.8 37.24
1996M11 19.64 21.37 21.68 37.34
1996M12 19.71 21.46 21.55 37.29
1997M1 19.8 21.41 21.48 37.29
1997M2 19.9 21.36 21.33 37.37
1997M3 20.04 21.17 21.25 37.53
1997M4 20.14 21.08 21.23 37.52
1997M5 20.31 20.96 21.28 37.44
1997M6 20.36 20.96 21.33 37.35
1997M7 20.4 21.11 21.38 37.13
1997M8 20.45 21.11 21.66 36.85
1997M9 20.47 21.21 21.84 36.53
1997M10 20.48 21.2 22 36.38
1997M11 20.51 21.12 22.02 36.38
1997M12 20.56 21.01 21.95 36.49
1998M1 20.51 20.86 21.97 36.65
1998M2 20.46 20.77 21.96 36.75
1998M3 20.43 20.71 22 36.81
1998M4 20.39 20.66 21.93 36.95
1998M5 20.42 20.66 21.86 37.06
1998M6 20.44 20.66 21.87 37.02
1998M7 20.57 20.62 21.85 36.97
1998M8 20.68 20.69 21.87 36.85
1998M9 20.8 20.73 21.83 36.71
1998M10 20.88 20.85 21.83 36.52
1998M11 20.92 20.92 21.84 36.32
1998M12 20.89 20.9 21.85 36.37
1999M1 20.81 20.79 21.84 36.53
1999M2 20.78 20.61 21.81 36.73
1999M3 20.73 20.47 21.74 37.01
1999M4 20.71 20.28 21.75 37.19
1999M5 20.65 20.24 21.82 37.3
1999M6 20.67 20.2 21.82 37.32
1999M7 20.71 20.21 21.82 37.3
1999M8 20.7 20.17 21.97 37.24
1999M9 20.74 20.11 21.97 37.25
1999M10 20.71 20.01 22.02 37.35
1999M11 20.6 19.8 22.03 37.55
1999M12 20.52 19.69 21.99 37.79
2000M1 20.49 19.58 21.93 37.95
2000M2 20.54 19.58 21.74 38.06
2000M3 20.55 19.57 21.81 38
2000M4 20.58 19.57 21.91 37.84
2000M5 20.78 19.65 21.87 37.72
2000M6 20.77 19.68 21.95 37.6
2000M7 20.73 19.63 22.02 37.67
2000M8 20.62 19.56 22.16 37.74
2000M9 20.51 19.47 22.33 37.77
2000M10 20.42 19.39 22.51 37.77
2000M11 20.19 19.37 22.85 37.58
2000M12 20.22 19.34 23.11 37.32
2001M1 20.32 19.28 23.35 36.98
2001M2 20.53 19.17 23.46 36.74
2001M3 20.79 19.02 23.35 36.73
2001M4 20.94 18.81 23.29 36.84
2001M5 21.15 18.58 23.13 37.13
2001M6 21.19 18.42 22.99 37.4
2001M7 21.11 18.28 22.85 37.81
2001M8 20.96 18.26 22.76 38.09
2001M9 20.75 18.29 22.79 38.25
2001M10 20.73 18.4 22.63 38.34
2001M11 20.7 18.51 22.65 38.14
2001M12 20.7 18.56 22.66 38.06
2002M1 20.72 18.62 22.7 37.87
2002M2 20.69 18.63 22.82 37.78
2002M3 20.66 18.62 22.86 37.76
2002M4 20.6 18.57 22.95 37.77
2002M5 20.71 18.47 22.91 37.89
2002M6 20.78 18.31 22.93 37.99
2002M7 20.9 18.21 22.97 38
2002M8 21.1 18.09 22.91 37.97
2002M9 21.27 17.93 22.8 38.09
2002M10 21.42 17.88 22.73 38.08
2002M11 21.49 17.75 22.67 38.12
2002M12 21.57 17.64 22.68 38.1
2003M1 21.7 17.59 22.68 37.95
2003M2 21.78 17.66 22.61 37.86
2003M3 21.87 17.78 22.68 37.56
2003M4 21.97 17.9 22.67 37.34
2003M5 22 17.99 22.84 37.13
2003M6 22.06 18.14 22.84 36.96
2003M7 22.04 18.21 22.92 36.89
2003M8 21.99 18.24 22.92 36.9
2003M9 22 18.23 22.77 37.08
2003M10 21.96 18.14 22.77 37.25
2003M11 21.93 18.11 22.59 37.42
2003M12 21.89 18.05 22.55 37.51
2004M1 21.82 18.02 22.47 37.64
2004M2 21.8 17.91 22.51 37.72
2004M3 21.78 17.78 22.73 37.62
2004M4 21.73 17.7 22.83 37.63
2004M5 21.72 17.6 22.96 37.67
2004M6 21.65 17.52 22.97 37.87
2004M7 21.66 17.47 23.04 37.89
2004M8 21.73 17.39 23.06 37.87
2004M9 21.76 17.48 23.07 37.77
2004M10 21.9 17.44 23.14 37.63
2004M11 21.93 17.41 23.17 37.54
2004M12 21.88 17.46 23.21 37.46
2005M1 21.84 17.4 23.14 37.6
2005M2 21.69 17.37 23.21 37.7
2005M3 21.62 17.24 23.2 37.86
2005M4 21.51 17.28 23.17 37.96
2005M5 21.46 17.33 23.25 37.93
2005M6 21.59 17.29 23.3 37.83
2005M7 21.66 17.22 23.38 37.79
2005M8 21.76 17.13 23.39 37.77
2005M9 21.82 17.05 23.4 37.79
2005M10 21.85 16.9 23.48 37.84
2005M11 21.79 16.81 23.53 37.91
2005M12 21.86 16.71 23.55 37.87
2006M1 21.91 16.72 23.59 37.73
2006M2 21.98 16.73 23.52 37.72
2006M3 22.01 16.76 23.57 37.59
2006M4 22.1 16.65 23.62 37.55
2006M5 22.26 16.5 23.65 37.56
2006M6 22.23 16.41 23.75 37.61
2006M7 22.35 16.24 23.79 37.64
2006M8 22.28 16.18 23.96 37.62
2006M9 22.19 16.06 24.06 37.74
2006M10 22.05 16.09 24.12 37.8
2006M11 21.97 16.08 24.2 37.76
2006M12 21.99 16 24.25 37.77
2007M1 21.92 16 24.29 37.77
2007M2 22.02 15.92 24.28 37.75
2007M3 21.96 15.95 24.28 37.76
2007M4 21.99 15.98 24.3 37.68
2007M5 21.93 16.15 24.24 37.67
2007M6 21.85 16.26 24.23 37.64
2007M7 21.74 16.35 24.28 37.65
2007M8 21.56 16.41 24.39 37.67
2007M9 21.55 16.4 24.44 37.64
2007M10 21.48 16.35 24.5 37.71
2007M11 21.45 16.24 24.52 37.79
2007M12 21.25 16.26 24.56 37.95
2008M1 21.2 16.23 24.63 37.93
2008M2 21.16 16.34 24.67 37.82
2008M3 21.12 16.45 24.75 37.65
2008M4 21.12 16.53 24.81 37.51
2008M5 21.18 16.56 24.9 37.37
2008M6 21.36 16.53 24.78 37.31
2008M7 21.36 16.52 24.66 37.44
2008M8 21.54 16.49 24.6 37.36
2008M9 21.68 16.38 24.55 37.39
2008M10 21.81 16.37 24.5 37.35
2008M11 21.82 16.31 24.55 37.32
2008M12 21.73 16.25 24.74 37.31
2009M1 21.69 16.19 24.95 37.19
2009M2 21.45 16.11 25.14 37.32
2009M3 21.42 16 25.21 37.38
2009M4 21.4 15.84 25.31 37.45
2009M5 21.4 15.78 25.37 37.45
2009M6 21.54 15.77 25.5 37.17
2009M7 21.74 15.79 25.65 36.82
2009M8 21.99 15.73 25.76 36.51
2009M9 22.09 15.86 25.91 36.14
2009M10 22.2 15.85 26.16 35.8
2009M11 22.27 15.86 26.3 35.59
2009M12 22.36 15.82 26.44 35.41
2010M1 22.29 15.76 26.34 35.63
2010M2 22.26 15.8 26.2 35.76
2010M3 22.2 15.77 26.1 35.95
2010M4 22.07 15.94 25.78 36.2
2010M5 21.94 16.04 25.71 36.31
2010M6 21.76 16.18 25.67 36.38
2010M7 21.59 16.36 25.79 36.23
2010M8 21.36 16.45 25.94 36.23
2010M9 21.22 16.52 26.06 36.17
2010M10 21.1 16.51 26.26 36.12
2010M11 21.04 16.56 26.36 36.03
2010M12 20.99 16.54 26.4 36.09
2011M1 21.04 16.51 26.38 36.09
2011M2 21.14 16.45 26.39 36.03
2011M3 21.16 16.4 26.45 36.02
2011M4 21.15 16.44 26.52 35.91
2011M5 21.12 16.47 26.56 35.88
2011M6 21.01 16.49 26.55 35.95
2011M7 20.88 16.47 26.59 36.04
2011M8 20.77 16.52 26.63 36.08
2011M9 20.62 16.43 26.7 36.22
2011M10 20.51 16.33 26.78 36.36
2011M11 20.44 16.19 26.76 36.57
2011M12 20.55 16.18 26.69 36.58
2012M1 20.62 16.18 26.69 36.52
2012M2 20.75 16.12 26.77 36.35
2012M3 20.91 16.22 26.77 36.11
2012M4 21.13 16.21 26.8 35.89
2012M5 21.31 16.22 26.85 35.64
2012M6 21.39 16.17 27 35.43
2012M7 21.48 16.14 27.03 35.33
2012M8 21.5 16.2 26.98 35.34
2012M9 21.44 16.28 26.92 35.34
2012M10 21.42 16.43 26.74 35.37
2012M11 21.46 16.59 26.61 35.33
2012M12 21.46 16.62 26.58 35.35
2013M1 21.34 16.64 26.67 35.34
2013M2 21.14 16.64 26.81 35.38
2013M3 21.03 16.55 26.98 35.46
2013M4 20.85 16.43 27.19 35.56
2013M5 20.66 16.32 27.37 35.68
2013M6 20.58 16.23 27.4 35.79
2013M7 20.67 16.13 27.31 35.89
2013M8 20.82 16.06 27.19 35.96
2013M9 21.01 16.05 27.05 35.87
2013M10 21.17 16.05 27 35.72
2013M11 21.26 16.07 26.99 35.65
2013M12 21.26 16.22 26.98 35.53
2014M1 21.23 16.26 27.05 35.45
2014M2 21.2 16.28 27.01 35.48
2014M3 21.17 16.28 26.99 35.58
2014M4 21.11 16.26 26.96 35.73
2014M5 21 16.15 26.92 35.97
2014M6 21.04 16.06 26.88 36.02

Note: 6-month moving averages. Data are seasonally adjusted by authors.

Figure 8: Data on Retirements. A. Not in Labor Force - Retirements

Year_Month Actual Prediction 2008 - 2014
1995M1 15.22 ND
1995M2 15.27 ND
1995M3 15.29 ND
1995M4 15.3 ND
1995M5 15.32 ND
1995M6 15.34 ND
1995M7 15.35 ND
1995M8 15.36 ND
1995M9 15.37 ND
1995M10 15.38 ND
1995M11 15.41 ND
1995M12 15.43 ND
1996M1 15.45 ND
1996M2 15.46 ND
1996M3 15.47 ND
1996M4 15.49 ND
1996M5 15.49 ND
1996M6 15.5 ND
1996M7 15.51 ND
1996M8 15.52 ND
1996M9 15.54 ND
1996M10 15.56 ND
1996M11 15.57 ND
1996M12 15.59 ND
1997M1 15.6 ND
1997M2 15.61 ND
1997M3 15.62 ND
1997M4 15.63 ND
1997M5 15.63 ND
1997M6 15.65 ND
1997M7 15.66 ND
1997M8 15.66 ND
1997M9 15.66 ND
1997M10 15.66 ND
1997M11 15.65 ND
1997M12 15.64 ND
1998M1 15.64 ND
1998M2 15.64 ND
1998M3 15.65 ND
1998M4 15.67 ND
1998M5 15.68 ND
1998M6 15.68 ND
1998M7 15.67 ND
1998M8 15.67 ND
1998M9 15.67 ND
1998M10 15.67 ND
1998M11 15.68 ND
1998M12 15.69 ND
1999M1 15.69 ND
1999M2 15.67 ND
1999M3 15.65 ND
1999M4 15.63 ND
1999M5 15.63 ND
1999M6 15.62 ND
1999M7 15.61 ND
1999M8 15.6 ND
1999M9 15.59 ND
1999M10 15.58 ND
1999M11 15.59 ND
1999M12 15.59 ND
2000M1 15.59 ND
2000M2 15.59 ND
2000M3 15.58 ND
2000M4 15.58 ND
2000M5 15.57 ND
2000M6 15.58 ND
2000M7 15.59 ND
2000M8 15.59 ND
2000M9 15.6 ND
2000M10 15.6 ND
2000M11 15.6 ND
2000M12 15.6 ND
2001M1 15.59 ND
2001M2 15.59 ND
2001M3 15.6 ND
2001M4 15.61 ND
2001M5 15.61 ND
2001M6 15.6 ND
2001M7 15.59 ND
2001M8 15.58 ND
2001M9 15.56 ND
2001M10 15.54 ND
2001M11 15.53 ND
2001M12 15.52 ND
2002M1 15.52 ND
2002M2 15.5 ND
2002M3 15.49 ND
2002M4 15.48 ND
2002M5 15.47 ND
2002M6 15.47 ND
2002M7 15.46 ND
2002M8 15.47 ND
2002M9 15.47 ND
2002M10 15.46 ND
2002M11 15.46 ND
2002M12 15.46 ND
2003M1 15.46 ND
2003M2 15.47 ND
2003M3 15.47 ND
2003M4 15.47 ND
2003M5 15.48 ND
2003M6 15.49 ND
2003M7 15.51 ND
2003M8 15.51 ND
2003M9 15.53 ND
2003M10 15.55 ND
2003M11 15.55 ND
2003M12 15.55 ND
2004M1 15.55 ND
2004M2 15.56 ND
2004M3 15.57 ND
2004M4 15.57 ND
2004M5 15.57 ND
2004M6 15.58 ND
2004M7 15.58 ND
2004M8 15.57 ND
2004M9 15.57 ND
2004M10 15.56 ND
2004M11 15.56 ND
2004M12 15.57 ND
2005M1 15.56 ND
2005M2 15.55 ND
2005M3 15.55 ND
2005M4 15.53 ND
2005M5 15.52 ND
2005M6 15.49 ND
2005M7 15.47 ND
2005M8 15.46 ND
2005M9 15.44 ND
2005M10 15.41 ND
2005M11 15.41 ND
2005M12 15.4 ND
2006M1 15.39 ND
2006M2 15.39 ND
2006M3 15.4 ND
2006M4 15.4 ND
2006M5 15.39 ND
2006M6 15.4 ND
2006M7 15.41 ND
2006M8 15.42 ND
2006M9 15.44 ND
2006M10 15.45 ND
2006M11 15.43 ND
2006M12 15.41 ND
2007M1 15.4 ND
2007M2 15.39 ND
2007M3 15.37 ND
2007M4 15.37 ND
2007M5 15.36 ND
2007M6 15.36 ND
2007M7 15.35 ND
2007M8 15.35 ND
2007M9 15.35 ND
2007M10 15.37 ND
2007M11 15.39 ND
2007M12 15.39 15.4
2008M1 15.39 15.41
2008M2 15.4 15.43
2008M3 15.4 15.45
2008M4 15.4 15.47
2008M5 15.41 15.48
2008M6 15.41 15.5
2008M7 15.4 15.52
2008M8 15.39 15.54
2008M9 15.4 15.56
2008M10 15.39 15.59
2008M11 15.39 15.61
2008M12 15.39 15.63
2009M1 15.39 15.65
2009M2 15.39 15.66
2009M3 15.4 15.68
2009M4 15.41 15.71
2009M5 15.4 15.73
2009M6 15.4 15.75
2009M7 15.42 15.78
2009M8 15.43 15.8
2009M9 15.45 15.82
2009M10 15.47 15.85
2009M11 15.5 15.87
2009M12 15.52 15.9
2010M1 15.54 15.92
2010M2 15.54 15.94
2010M3 15.54 15.96
2010M4 15.54 15.97
2010M5 15.55 15.99
2010M6 15.56 16.01
2010M7 15.57 16.03
2010M8 15.57 16.04
2010M9 15.57 16.06
2010M10 15.58 16.08
2010M11 15.59 16.09
2010M12 15.61 16.11
2011M1 15.63 16.14
2011M2 15.65 16.17
2011M3 15.66 16.2
2011M4 15.68 16.23
2011M5 15.69 16.26
2011M6 15.71 16.29
2011M7 15.73 16.31
2011M8 15.76 16.34
2011M9 15.77 16.38
2011M10 15.78 16.41
2011M11 15.79 16.44
2011M12 15.81 16.46
2012M1 15.83 16.5
2012M2 15.86 16.53
2012M3 15.89 16.56
2012M4 15.92 16.6
2012M5 15.96 16.63
2012M6 15.98 16.67
2012M7 16.02 16.7
2012M8 16.05 16.74
2012M9 16.1 16.78
2012M10 16.14 16.82
2012M11 16.17 16.86
2012M12 16.21 16.9
2013M1 16.22 16.92
2013M2 16.25 16.95
2013M3 16.29 16.97
2013M4 16.32 17
2013M5 16.35 17.03
2013M6 16.37 17.06
2013M7 16.39 17.09
2013M8 16.41 17.12
2013M9 16.44 17.14
2013M10 16.48 17.17
2013M11 16.52 17.2
2013M12 16.56 17.22
2014M1 16.6 17.26
2014M2 16.63 17.29
2014M3 16.65 17.32
2014M4 16.68 17.35
2014M5 16.71 17.38
2014M6 16.74 17.41

Note: 12-month moving average. Prediction 2008-2014 keeps within-age retirement rates fixed at 2007 levels.

Source: Current Population Survey microdata.

Figure 8: Data on Retirements. B. Within-age Retirement Rates

Year_Month Age 55 Age 60 Age 62 Age 65 Age 66 Age 70
1995M1 8.72 23.85 40.78 60.21 64.11 75.84
1995M2 8.83 23.62 40.84 60.16 64.01 76.1
1995M3 8.85 23.36 41.11 60.04 63.8 76.14
1995M4 8.7 23.19 40.82 59.71 63.73 76.04
1995M5 8.67 23.09 40.65 59.86 63.81 76.33
1995M6 8.74 23.02 40.61 60.08 63.96 76.37
1995M7 8.78 23.04 40.53 60.37 64.14 76.65
1995M8 8.78 23.18 40.41 60.58 64.21 76.72
1995M9 8.73 23.04 40.23 60.79 64.48 76.8
1995M10 8.59 22.87 40.14 60.71 64.67 76.75
1995M11 8.42 22.69 40.28 60.86 64.66 76.76
1995M12 8.52 22.5 40.56 60.61 65.1 76.8
1996M1 8.55 22.22 40.73 60.67 65.63 76.86
1996M2 8.45 22.18 40.63 60.7 65.93 76.94
1996M3 8.37 22.11 40.46 60.74 66.17 77.12
1996M4 8.33 22.19 40.85 61.27 66.19 77.28
1996M5 8.26 22.38 41.06 61.74 65.82 77.06
1996M6 8.13 22.62 40.85 61.99 65.61 76.96
1996M7 8.16 22.8 40.81 61.91 65.83 76.69
1996M8 8.19 22.98 40.99 61.94 65.88 76.6
1996M9 8.27 23.26 40.98 61.8 66.06 76.39
1996M10 8.33 23.65 40.98 61.87 66.19 76.3
1996M11 8.38 23.93 41 61.92 66.14 76.19
1996M12 8.28 24.3 40.82 62.08 65.93 75.98
1997M1 8.16 24.62 40.84 62.33 65.74 75.9
1997M2 8.24 24.69 41.07 62.56 65.77 75.78
1997M3 8.17 24.76 41.02 62.85 65.71 75.7
1997M4 8.13 24.68 40.78 62.75 65.69 75.75
1997M5 8.14 24.71 40.68 62.39 65.93 75.83
1997M6 8.25 24.82 40.69 62.01 66.03 75.76
1997M7 8.29 24.78 40.75 61.94 65.84 75.8
1997M8 8.32 24.43 40.57 61.83 66.09 75.79
1997M9 8.32 24.04 40.56 62.08 66.01 75.92
1997M10 8.36 23.49 40.7 62.13 66.24 76.03
1997M11 8.35 23.17 40.61 62.1 66.45 76.05
1997M12 8.37 23.04 40.48 62.01 66.41 76.29
1998M1 8.45 23.12 40.32 61.71 66.51 76.45
1998M2 8.45 23.13 40.09 61.72 66.51 76.48
1998M3 8.44 23.29 39.61 61.79 66.75 76.43
1998M4 8.4 23.45 39.43 61.72 67.01 76.31
1998M5 8.38 23.36 39.4 61.78 66.99 76.48
1998M6 8.31 23.1 39.42 62.03 67.07 76.74
1998M7 8.35 23.06 39.31 62.1 67.11 76.82
1998M8 8.39 23.33 39.42 62.29 67.05 76.9
1998M9 8.49 23.7 39.48 62.21 66.9 76.97
1998M10 8.58 24.11 39.44 62.08 66.42 76.94
1998M11 8.69 24.5 39.4 62.05 66.1 77
1998M12 8.7 24.6 39.55 62.2 65.95 76.9
1999M1 8.62 24.28 39.57 62.49 65.94 76.82
1999M2 8.61 24.13 39.5 62.22 65.74 76.73
1999M3 8.6 23.96 39.76 61.98 65.48 76.66
1999M4 8.74 23.84 39.68 61.84 65.21 76.71
1999M5 8.86 24.01 39.75 61.76 65.23 76.54
1999M6 8.95 24.29 39.72 61.72 65.16 76.56
1999M7 8.79 24.43 39.54 61.36 64.99 76.74
1999M8 8.71 24.47 39.34 60.86 64.69 77.06
1999M9 8.65 24.41 39.26 60.41 64.65 77.11
1999M10 8.61 24.36 39.15 60.4 64.64 76.99
1999M11 8.66 24.28 39.16 60.15 64.73 77.06
1999M12 8.7 24.07 39.15 59.82 65.1 77.11
2000M1 8.75 24.26 39.27 59.49 65.1 77.28
2000M2 8.7 24.31 39.41 59.62 65.07 77.36
2000M3 8.89 24.38 39.47 59.53 64.83 77.36
2000M4 9 24.63 39.53 59.74 64.65 77.4
2000M5 9.04 24.51 39.52 59.85 64.47 77.47
2000M6 9.07 24.28 39.49 59.84 64.31 77.21
2000M7 9.17 24.13 39.7 60.08 64.17 77.03
2000M8 9.24 24.03 39.55 60.23 63.9 76.74
2000M9 9.2 24.08 39.37 60.33 63.49 76.59
2000M10 9.28 23.91 39.35 60.07 63.37 76.78
2000M11 9.38 23.7 39.41 59.9 63.29 76.77
2000M12 9.39 23.79 39.37 59.8 63.01 76.61
2001M1 9.47 23.81 39.29 59.58 62.73 76.3
2001M2 9.58 24.01 39.22 59.48 62.56 76.05
2001M3 9.5 24.04 39.22 59.6 62.54 75.88
2001M4 9.37 23.9 39.14 59.18 62.91 75.79
2001M5 9.27 23.7 39.07 58.73 63.08 75.87
2001M6 9.22 23.55 39.15 58.34 63.11 75.94
2001M7 9.23 23.53 38.81 57.96 63.05 75.86
2001M8 9.19 23.44 38.79 57.8 62.97 75.49
2001M9 9.24 23.17 38.53 57.62 62.95 75.27
2001M10 9.14 23.2 38.2 57.52 62.79 74.93
2001M11 8.8 23.32 38.01 57.61 62.61 74.69
2001M12 8.62 23.11 37.84 57.59 62.44 74.64
2002M1 8.48 22.88 37.55 57.66 62.55 74.73
2002M2 8.33 22.65 37.41 57.61 62.63 75.22
2002M3 8.21 22.52 37.15 57.3 62.85 75.63
2002M4 8.14 22.42 37.05 57.2 62.48 75.82
2002M5 8.22 22.56 36.83 57.16 62.3 75.61
2002M6 8.15 22.75 36.67 57.1 62.29 75.52
2002M7 8.19 22.71 36.72 57.12 62.23 75.37
2002M8 8.24 22.61 36.62 57.23 62.55 75.76
2002M9 8.18 22.5 36.81 57.5 62.76 75.84
2002M10 8.15 22.17 36.69 57.85 62.78 76.09
2002M11 8.16 21.88 36.26 58.2 62.9 76.38
2002M12 8.11 21.79 36.04 58.23 62.9 76.42
2003M1 8.06 21.69 35.96 58.13 62.59 76.41
2003M2 8.08 21.71 35.69 57.92 62.41 76.05
2003M3 8.08 21.7 35.67 57.78 61.84 75.6
2003M4 8.16 21.8 35.58 57.85 61.65 75.3
2003M5 8.13 21.64 35.51 57.81 61.56 75.25
2003M6 8.19 21.41 35.33 57.63 61.21 75.25
2003M7 8.27 21.24 35.08 57.46 61.4 75.38
2003M8 8.31 21.14 35.11 57.13 61.19 75.28
2003M9 8.41 21.18 35.05 56.97 61.26 75.36
2003M10 8.45 21.15 35.12 56.66 61.41 75.22
2003M11 8.51 21.07 35.06 56.32 61.37 74.96
2003M12 8.61 21.04 35.01 56.05 61.23 74.97
2004M1 8.76 21.12 34.87 56.13 61.16 74.92
2004M2 8.83 20.96 35.11 56.41 61.04 75.01
2004M3 8.89 20.85 35.08 56.56 61.27 75.04
2004M4 8.82 20.8 35.16 56.82 61.3 74.9
2004M5 8.65 20.96 35.17 57.03 61.16 74.87
2004M6 8.58 21.17 35.23 57.24 61.08 74.72
2004M7 8.39 21.23 35.53 57.47 60.73 74.48
2004M8 8.33 21.4 35.55 57.51 60.4 74.17
2004M9 8.25 21.41 35.63 57.2 60.04 73.92
2004M10 8.26 21.61 35.72 57.03 59.71 73.64
2004M11 8.24 21.68 36.12 56.94 59.46 73.49
2004M12 8.3 21.72 36.25 57.02 59.58 73.37
2005M1 8.33 21.6 36.34 56.86 59.93 73.19
2005M2 8.3 21.53 36.26 56.56 60.14 72.77
2005M3 8.3 21.36 36.1 56.58 60.05 72.62
2005M4 8.27 21.03 35.92 56.11 60.06 72.55
2005M5 8.39 20.76 35.87 55.75 60.02 72.38
2005M6 8.39 20.66 35.63 55.3 60.09 72.37
2005M7 8.46 20.53 35.2 54.87 60.03 72.38
2005M8 8.43 20.37 34.88 54.76 60.14 72.57
2005M9 8.34 20.31 34.53 54.87 60 72.49
2005M10 8.3 20.33 34.26 54.88 59.7 72.51
2005M11 8.24 20.44 33.95 54.92 59.77 72.17
2005M12 8.13 20.42 33.62 54.83 59.48 71.82
2006M1 8.03 20.53 33.57 54.83 59.09 71.5
2006M2 8.02 20.76 33.37 55.04 58.95 71.51
2006M3 7.96 20.9 33.35 54.8 58.99 71.52
2006M4 7.96 21.03 33.39 55.02 58.82 71.44
2006M5 8 20.9 33.29 55.21 58.95 71.56
2006M6 8 20.64 33.31 55.63 59.01 71.38
2006M7 7.86 20.52 33.4 56 59.11 71.14
2006M8 7.74 20.54 33.4 56.1 59.21 70.84
2006M9 7.68 20.32 33.6 55.93 59.38 70.94
2006M10 7.6 20.02 33.68 55.83 59.5 71.05
2006M11 7.59 19.71 33.62 55.36 59.36 71.42
2006M12 7.58 19.52 33.66 55.18 59.35 71.59
2007M1 7.52 19.49 33.52 55.02 59.27 71.9
2007M2 7.51 19.42 33.38 54.5 59.18 71.99
2007M3 7.42 19.43 33.22 54.22 59.08 72
2007M4 7.39 19.43 33.05 53.82 58.94 72.06
2007M5 7.3 19.5 33.03 53.63 58.67 71.9
2007M6 7.3 19.4 32.95 53.34 58.59 71.93
2007M7 7.36 19.27 33 53.12 58.42 72.16
2007M8 7.49 19.26 33.04 52.85 58.53 72.47
2007M9 7.55 19.45 32.86 52.42 58.6 72.61
2007M10 7.53 19.68 32.55 52.18 58.94 72.72
2007M11 7.47 19.79 32.43 52.18 58.91 72.92
2007M12 7.31 19.93 32.46 51.82 59 73.25
2008M1 7.11 19.9 32.42 51.61 59.01 73.25
2008M2 6.92 19.78 32.28 51.5 59.01 73.42
2008M3 6.96 19.65 32.12 51.41 59.02 73.47
2008M4 6.88 19.58 32.09 51.36 59.14 73.36
2008M5 6.82 19.48 32.16 51.22 59 73.27
2008M6 6.75 19.5 32.31 51.01 58.69 73.29
2008M7 6.67 19.6 32.13 50.85 58.36 72.96
2008M8 6.57 19.46 32.12 50.98 57.8 72.51
2008M9 6.53 19.33 32.03 51.36 57.45 72.03
2008M10 6.49 19.09 32.13 51.32 57.37 71.7
2008M11 6.47 19.03 32.09 51.24 57.44 71.37
2008M12 6.47 18.67 31.95 51.35 57.42 71.04
2009M1 6.49 18.43 31.59 51.26 57.29 70.7
2009M2 6.52 18.3 31.48 51.26 57.14 70.18
2009M3 6.43 18.16 31.59 51.05 56.98 69.67
2009M4 6.4 18.08 31.53 50.95 56.93 69.5
2009M5 6.38 18 31.31 50.86 57.22 69.46
2009M6 6.24 17.89 30.81 50.92 57.38 69.3
2009M7 6.17 17.82 30.6 50.86 57.58 69.26
2009M8 6.08 17.97 30.51 50.61 57.79 69.16
2009M9 5.98 18.03 30.55 50.43 58 69.19
2009M10 5.89 18.27 30.56 50.44 57.98 69.12
2009M11 5.78 18.29 30.45 50.51 57.97 68.95
2009M12 5.73 18.36 30.3 50.59 57.89 68.88
2010M1 5.73 18.33 30.36 50.55 57.77 68.92
2010M2 5.67 18.33 30.15 50.59 57.51 69.14
2010M3 5.65 18.28 29.91 50.88 57.36 69.5
2010M4 5.62 18.23 29.62 50.85 57.19 69.81
2010M5 5.55 18.14 29.36 50.82 56.8 69.88
2010M6 5.57 18.01 29.47 50.7 56.76 70.26
2010M7 5.54 17.84 29.49 50.4 56.82 70.7
2010M8 5.56 17.62 29.34 50.35 56.73 71.01
2010M9 5.58 17.32 29.32 50.28 56.6 71.17
2010M10 5.65 17.02 29.39 50.26 56.36 71.18
2010M11 5.72 16.93 29.75 50.25 56.37 71.03
2010M12 5.83 16.93 30.01 50.03 56.25 70.96
2011M1 5.92 16.97 30.2 49.99 56.13 70.95
2011M2 5.98 16.98 30.38 49.97 56.16 70.93
2011M3 6.04 17.11 30.41 49.73 55.93 70.7
2011M4 6.06 17.06 30.49 49.57 55.77 70.44
2011M5 6.08 17.13 30.6 49.4 55.7 70.39
2011M6 6.08 17.2 30.54 49.27 55.24 70.11
2011M7 6.06 17.22 30.57 49.37 54.94 69.69
2011M8 5.99 17.15 30.67 49.48 55.02 69.48
2011M9 5.85 17.16 30.39 49.45 55.05 69.06
2011M10 5.8 17.13 30.05 49.1 55.01 68.79
2011M11 5.79 17.05 29.56 48.75 54.7 68.8
2011M12 5.78 17.04 29.09 48.36 54.58 68.83
2012M1 5.7 17.03 28.92 48.13 54.81 68.9
2012M2 5.69 17.02 28.76 47.71 54.89 68.99
2012M3 5.69 16.84 28.65 47.65 55.06 69.07
2012M4 5.71 16.68 28.6 47.81 55.13 69.05
2012M5 5.79 16.39 28.52 47.77 55.21 69.05
2012M6 5.91 16.26 28.36 47.64 55.53 69.09
2012M7 5.94 16.26 28.21 47.82 55.79 69.16
2012M8 5.99 16.35 28.06 47.79 55.65 69.23
2012M9 6.2 16.41 28.25 47.74 55.55 69.56
2012M10 6.19 16.29 28.29 47.87 55.63 69.79
2012M11 6.19 16.11 28.37 47.88 55.67 69.93
2012M12 6.14 15.98 28.54 48.18 55.82 70.02
2013M1 6.13 15.91 28.34 48.31 55.8 70.09
2013M2 6.11 15.8 28.23 48.53 55.71 70.06
2013M3 6.05 15.94 28.2 48.61 55.98 70.55
2013M4 6.02 16.1 28.3 48.41 56.21 70.75
2013M5 5.95 16.45 28.32 48.26 56.3 70.68
2013M6 5.88 16.53 28.46 48.42 56.39 70.59
2013M7 6 16.44 28.59 48.32 56.34 70.43
2013M8 6.06 16.24 28.55 48.28 56.35 70.32
2013M9 6.02 16.14 28.55 48.39 56.42 70.26
2013M10 6.01 16.12 28.66 48.51 56.51 70.4
2013M11 6.03 16.29 28.78 48.69 56.49 70.38
2013M12 6.11 16.4 28.91 48.58 56.37 70.19
2014M1 6.17 16.47 29.1 48.55 56.35 70.22
2014M2 6.21 16.5 29.35 48.69 56.29 70.24
2014M3 6.16 16.31 29.43 48.8 56.05 69.87
2014M4 6.08 16.23 29.44 48.9 55.88 69.69
2014M5 6 16.18 29.4 49.22 55.87 69.58
2014M6 5.89 16.31 29.39 49.08 55.88 69.57

Note: 12-month moving average.

Source: Current Population Survey microdata.

Figure 8: Data on Retirements. C. SSA Retirements

Year_Month Social Security Administration retired workers SSA retired workers and dependents
1995M1 13.22 14.99
1995M2 13.22 14.99
1995M3 13.23 14.99
1995M4 13.23 14.99
1995M5 13.23 14.98
1995M6 13.23 14.98
1995M7 13.23 14.98
1995M8 13.23 14.98
1995M9 13.23 14.98
1995M10 13.23 14.97
1995M11 13.23 14.97
1995M12 13.23 14.97
1996M1 13.23 14.96
1996M2 13.23 14.96
1996M3 13.22 14.95
1996M4 13.22 14.94
1996M5 13.22 14.94
1996M6 13.21 14.93
1996M7 13.21 14.92
1996M8 13.21 14.91
1996M9 13.2 14.91
1996M10 13.2 14.9
1996M11 13.19 14.89
1996M12 13.19 14.88
1997M1 13.18 14.87
1997M2 13.18 14.86
1997M3 13.18 14.85
1997M4 13.17 14.85
1997M5 13.17 14.84
1997M6 13.17 14.84
1997M7 13.17 14.83
1997M8 13.17 14.83
1997M9 13.17 14.82
1997M10 13.17 14.82
1997M11 13.17 14.82
1997M12 13.18 14.82
1998M1 13.18 14.82
1998M2 13.18 14.82
1998M3 13.19 14.82
1998M4 13.19 14.82
1998M5 13.19 14.82
1998M6 13.19 14.82
1998M7 13.2 14.82
1998M8 13.19 14.81
1998M9 13.19 14.81
1998M10 13.19 14.8
1998M11 13.19 14.79
1998M12 13.18 14.78
1999M1 13.18 14.78
1999M2 13.18 14.77
1999M3 13.18 14.77
1999M4 13.17 14.76
1999M5 13.17 14.75
1999M6 13.17 14.75
1999M7 13.16 14.74
1999M8 13.16 14.73
1999M9 13.16 14.72
1999M10 13.15 14.72
1999M11 13.15 14.71
1999M12 13.15 14.7
2000M1 13.14 14.7
2000M2 13.14 14.69
2000M3 13.14 14.69
2000M4 13.14 14.68
2000M5 13.15 14.69
2000M6 13.17 14.7
2000M7 13.18 14.72
2000M8 13.19 14.73
2000M9 13.21 14.74
2000M10 13.22 14.76
2000M11 13.24 14.77
2000M12 13.25 14.78
2001M1 13.27 14.8
2001M2 13.29 14.82
2001M3 13.31 14.84
2001M4 13.33 14.86
2001M5 13.34 14.86
2001M6 13.34 14.86
2001M7 13.34 14.86
2001M8 13.34 14.86
2001M9 13.34 14.85
2001M10 13.34 14.85
2001M11 13.34 14.84
2001M12 13.34 14.84
2002M1 13.34 14.84
2002M2 13.34 14.83
2002M3 13.34 14.83
2002M4 13.33 14.82
2002M5 13.33 14.82
2002M6 13.33 14.81
2002M7 13.33 14.81
2002M8 13.33 14.81
2002M9 13.33 14.8
2002M10 13.33 14.8
2002M11 13.33 14.8
2002M12 13.33 14.79
2003M1 13.33 14.79
2003M2 13.33 14.78
2003M3 13.33 14.78
2003M4 13.33 14.77
2003M5 13.33 14.77
2003M6 13.33 14.76
2003M7 13.32 14.76
2003M8 13.32 14.75
2003M9 13.32 14.75
2003M10 13.32 14.75
2003M11 13.32 14.74
2003M12 13.32 14.74
2004M1 13.32 14.74
2004M2 13.32 14.73
2004M3 13.32 14.73
2004M4 13.32 14.73
2004M5 13.32 14.72
2004M6 13.33 14.72
2004M7 13.33 14.72
2004M8 13.33 14.72
2004M9 13.33 14.71
2004M10 13.33 14.71
2004M11 13.33 14.71
2004M12 13.33 14.71
2005M1 13.34 14.71
2005M2 13.34 14.71
2005M3 13.35 14.72
2005M4 13.36 14.72
2005M5 13.37 14.73
2005M6 13.37 14.73
2005M7 13.38 14.73
2005M8 13.38 14.74
2005M9 13.39 14.74
2005M10 13.39 14.74
2005M11 13.4 14.75
2005M12 13.41 14.75
2006M1 13.41 14.75
2006M2 13.42 14.75
2006M3 13.42 14.75
2006M4 13.43 14.76
2006M5 13.43 14.76
2006M6 13.44 14.77
2006M7 13.45 14.77
2006M8 13.45 14.77
2006M9 13.46 14.78
2006M10 13.46 14.78
2006M11 13.47 14.78
2006M12 13.48 14.78
2007M1 13.48 14.79
2007M2 13.49 14.79
2007M3 13.49 14.79
2007M4 13.5 14.8
2007M5 13.51 14.8
2007M6 13.51 14.8
2007M7 13.52 14.81
2007M8 13.53 14.82
2007M9 13.54 14.82
2007M10 13.55 14.83
2007M11 13.55 14.83
2007M12 13.56 14.84
2008M1 13.57 14.84
2008M2 13.58 14.85
2008M3 13.58 14.85
2008M4 13.59 14.86
2008M5 13.6 14.86
2008M6 13.61 14.87
2008M7 13.62 14.87
2008M8 13.63 14.88
2008M9 13.64 14.89
2008M10 13.65 14.9
2008M11 13.67 14.91
2008M12 13.68 14.93
2009M1 13.7 14.94
2009M2 13.71 14.96
2009M3 13.73 14.97
2009M4 13.76 14.99
2009M5 13.78 15.02
2009M6 13.8 15.04
2009M7 13.83 15.07
2009M8 13.86 15.09
2009M9 13.89 15.12
2009M10 13.92 15.15
2009M11 13.95 15.18
2009M12 13.98 15.21
2010M1 14.01 15.24
2010M2 14.04 15.27
2010M3 14.07 15.29
2010M4 14.1 15.32
2010M5 14.12 15.35
2010M6 14.15 15.37
2010M7 14.18 15.4
2010M8 14.2 15.42
2010M9 14.23 15.45
2010M10 14.26 15.47
2010M11 14.28 15.5
2010M12 14.31 15.52
2011M1 14.33 15.55
2011M2 14.36 15.57
2011M3 14.38 15.59
2011M4 14.41 15.62
2011M5 14.43 15.64
2011M6 14.45 15.66
2011M7 14.48 15.69
2011M8 14.5 15.71
2011M9 14.53 15.73
2011M10 14.55 15.75
2011M11 14.57 15.77
2011M12 14.6 15.8
2012M1 14.62 15.82
2012M2 14.64 15.84
2012M3 14.67 15.86
2012M4 14.69 15.89
2012M5 14.72 15.91
2012M6 14.74 15.93
2012M7 14.77 15.96
2012M8 14.79 15.98
2012M9 14.82 16.01
2012M10 14.84 16.03
2012M11 14.87 16.06
2012M12 14.9 16.09
2013M1 14.92 16.11
2013M2 14.95 16.14
2013M3 14.98 16.17
2013M4 15.01 16.19
2013M5 15.04 16.22
2013M6 15.06 16.25
2013M7 15.09 16.28
2013M8 15.12 16.31
2013M9 15.15 16.33
2013M10 15.18 16.36
2013M11 15.21 16.39
2013M12 15.23 16.42
2014M1 15.26 16.44
2014M2 15.29 16.47
2014M3 15.32 16.5
2014M4 15.34 16.52
2014M5 15.37 16.55
2014M6 15.4 16.58

Source: Social Security Administration and Current Population Survey.

Figure 9: Data on Non-Participants. A. Disability Insurance. Annual Data.

year Total SSDI recipients Recipients age 64 and under CPS NLF-Disability
1975 1.62 1.62 ND
1976 1.71 1.71 ND
1977 1.78 1.78 ND
1978 1.78 1.78 ND
1979 1.74 1.74 ND
1980 1.7 1.7 ND
1981 1.63 1.63 ND
1982 1.51 1.51 ND
1983 1.47 1.47 ND
1984 1.47 1.47 ND
1985 1.49 1.49 ND
1986 1.51 1.51 ND
1987 1.52 1.52 ND
1988 1.53 1.53 ND
1989 1.55 1.55 ND
1990 1.59 1.59 ND
1991 1.67 1.67 ND
1992 1.8 1.8 ND
1993 1.91 1.91 ND
1994 2.01 2.01 4.02
1995 2.1 2.1 4.32
1996 2.18 2.18 4.14
1997 2.22 2.22 4.17
1998 2.29 2.29 4.05
1999 2.34 2.34 4.11
2000 2.37 2.37 4.28
2001 2.45 2.45 4.31
2002 2.55 2.55 4.51
2003 2.65 2.64 4.5
2004 2.78 2.74 4.66
2005 2.89 2.82 4.8
2006 2.98 2.89 4.75
2007 3.06 2.95 4.95
2008 3.18 3.03 5.05
2009 3.3 3.16 5.25
2010 3.45 3.31 5.21
2011 3.58 3.41 5.37
2012 3.63 3.44 5.49
2013 3.64 3.45 5.74

Note: SSDI recipients data are end-of-year; CPS NLF-Disability data are for December.

Source: Social Security Administration and Current Population Survey.

Figure 9: Data on Non-Participants. A. Disability Insurance. Monthly Data.

year_month Total SSDI applications
1985M12 0.05
1986M1 0.05
1986M2 0.05
1986M3 0.05
1986M4 0.05
1986M5 0.05
1986M6 0.05
1986M7 0.05
1986M8 0.05
1986M9 0.05
1986M10 0.05
1986M11 0.05
1986M12 0.05
1987M1 0.05
1987M2 0.05
1987M3 0.05
1987M4 0.05
1987M5 0.05
1987M6 0.05
1987M7 0.05
1987M8 0.05
1987M9 0.05
1987M10 0.05
1987M11 0.05
1987M12 0.05
1988M1 0.05
1988M2 0.05
1988M3 0.05
1988M4 0.05
1988M5 0.05
1988M6 0.05
1988M7 0.05
1988M8 0.05
1988M9 0.05
1988M10 0.05
1988M11 0.05
1988M12 0.05
1989M1 0.04
1989M2 0.04
1989M3 0.04
1989M4 0.04
1989M5 0.04
1989M6 0.04
1989M7 0.04
1989M8 0.04
1989M9 0.04
1989M10 0.04
1989M11 0.04
1989M12 0.04
1990M1 0.04
1990M2 0.04
1990M3 0.04
1990M4 0.04
1990M5 0.05
1990M6 0.05
1990M7 0.05
1990M8 0.05
1990M9 0.05
1990M10 0.05
1990M11 0.05
1990M12 0.05
1991M1 0.05
1991M2 0.05
1991M3 0.05
1991M4 0.05
1991M5 0.05
1991M6 0.05
1991M7 0.05
1991M8 0.05
1991M9 0.05
1991M10 0.05
1991M11 0.05
1991M12 0.05
1992M1 0.05
1992M2 0.05
1992M3 0.05
1992M4 0.05
1992M5 0.05
1992M6 0.06
1992M7 0.06
1992M8 0.06
1992M9 0.06
1992M10 0.06
1992M11 0.06
1992M12 0.06
1993M1 0.06
1993M2 0.06
1993M3 0.06
1993M4 0.06
1993M5 0.06
1993M6 0.06
1993M7 0.06
1993M8 0.06
1993M9 0.06
1993M10 0.06
1993M11 0.06
1993M12 0.06
1994M1 0.06
1994M2 0.06
1994M3 0.06
1994M4 0.06
1994M5 0.06
1994M6 0.06
1994M7 0.06
1994M8 0.06
1994M9 0.06
1994M10 0.06
1994M11 0.06
1994M12 0.06
1995M1 0.06
1995M2 0.06
1995M3 0.06
1995M4 0.06
1995M5 0.06
1995M6 0.06
1995M7 0.06
1995M8 0.06
1995M9 0.06
1995M10 0.06
1995M11 0.06
1995M12 0.06
1996M1 0.06
1996M2 0.06
1996M3 0.06
1996M4 0.06
1996M5 0.06
1996M6 0.05
1996M7 0.05
1996M8 0.06
1996M9 0.05
1996M10 0.05
1996M11 0.05
1996M12 0.05
1997M1 0.05
1997M2 0.05
1997M3 0.05
1997M4 0.05
1997M5 0.05
1997M6 0.05
1997M7 0.05
1997M8 0.05
1997M9 0.05
1997M10 0.05
1997M11 0.05
1997M12 0.05
1998M1 0.05
1998M2 0.05
1998M3 0.05
1998M4 0.05
1998M5 0.05
1998M6 0.05
1998M7 0.05
1998M8 0.05
1998M9 0.05
1998M10 0.05
1998M11 0.05
1998M12 0.05
1999M1 0.05
1999M2 0.05
1999M3 0.05
1999M4 0.05
1999M5 0.05
1999M6 0.05
1999M7 0.05
1999M8 0.05
1999M9 0.05
1999M10 0.05
1999M11 0.05
1999M12 0.05
2000M1 0.05
2000M2 0.05
2000M3 0.05
2000M4 0.05
2000M5 0.05
2000M6 0.05
2000M7 0.05
2000M8 0.05
2000M9 0.05
2000M10 0.05
2000M11 0.05
2000M12 0.05
2001M1 0.05
2001M2 0.05
2001M3 0.05
2001M4 0.05
2001M5 0.05
2001M6 0.05
2001M7 0.05
2001M8 0.06
2001M9 0.06
2001M10 0.06
2001M11 0.06
2001M12 0.06
2002M1 0.06
2002M2 0.06
2002M3 0.06
2002M4 0.06
2002M5 0.06
2002M6 0.06
2002M7 0.06
2002M8 0.06
2002M9 0.06
2002M10 0.06
2002M11 0.06
2002M12 0.06
2003M1 0.07
2003M2 0.07
2003M3 0.06
2003M4 0.07
2003M5 0.07
2003M6 0.07
2003M7 0.07
2003M8 0.07
2003M9 0.07
2003M10 0.07
2003M11 0.07
2003M12 0.07
2004M1 0.07
2004M2 0.07
2004M3 0.07
2004M4 0.08
2004M5 0.08
2004M6 0.08
2004M7 0.08
2004M8 0.08
2004M9 0.08
2004M10 0.08
2004M11 0.08
2004M12 0.08
2005M1 0.08
2005M2 0.08
2005M3 0.08
2005M4 0.08
2005M5 0.08
2005M6 0.08
2005M7 0.08
2005M8 0.08
2005M9 0.08
2005M10 0.08
2005M11 0.08
2005M12 0.08
2006M1 0.08
2006M2 0.08
2006M3 0.08
2006M4 0.08
2006M5 0.08
2006M6 0.08
2006M7 0.08
2006M8 0.08
2006M9 0.08
2006M10 0.08
2006M11 0.08
2006M12 0.08
2007M1 0.08
2007M2 0.08
2007M3 0.08
2007M4 0.08
2007M5 0.08
2007M6 0.08
2007M7 0.08
2007M8 0.08
2007M9 0.08
2007M10 0.08
2007M11 0.08
2007M12 0.08
2008M1 0.08
2008M2 0.08
2008M3 0.08
2008M4 0.08
2008M5 0.08
2008M6 0.08
2008M7 0.08
2008M8 0.08
2008M9 0.08
2008M10 0.08
2008M11 0.08
2008M12 0.08
2009M1 0.09
2009M2 0.08
2009M3 0.09
2009M4 0.09
2009M5 0.09
2009M6 0.09
2009M7 0.09
2009M8 0.09
2009M9 0.1
2009M10 0.1
2009M11 0.1
2009M12 0.1
2010M1 0.1
2010M2 0.1
2010M3 0.1
2010M4 0.1
2010M5 0.1
2010M6 0.1
2010M7 0.1
2010M8 0.1
2010M9 0.1
2010M10 0.1
2010M11 0.1
2010M12 0.1
2011M1 0.1
2011M2 0.1
2011M3 0.1
2011M4 0.1
2011M5 0.1
2011M6 0.1
2011M7 0.1
2011M8 0.1
2011M9 0.1
2011M10 0.1
2011M11 0.1
2011M12 0.1
2012M1 0.1
2012M2 0.1
2012M3 0.1
2012M4 0.1
2012M5 0.1
2012M6 0.1
2012M7 0.1
2012M8 0.1
2012M9 0.1
2012M10 0.1
2012M11 0.1
2012M12 0.1
2013M1 0.1
2013M2 0.09
2013M3 0.09
2013M4 0.09
2013M5 0.09
2013M6 0.09
2013M7 0.09
2013M8 0.09
2013M9 0.09
2013M10 0.09
2013M11 0.09
2013M12 0.09

Note: SSDI recipients data are end-of-year; CPS NLF-Disability data are for December.

Source: Social Security Administration and Current Population Survey.

Figure 9: Data on Non-Participants. B. Not in the Labor Force - Don't Want Job. (Cumulative change in share of 16+ civilian population since 1995)

year_month Not in the labor force - don't want job Not in the labor force - don't want job but not retired Not in the labor force - don't want job neither retired nor disabled
1995M1 0 0 0
1995M2 0.01 -0.03 -0.07
1995M3 0.01 -0.06 -0.12
1995M4 0.01 -0.06 -0.16
1995M5 0.03 -0.07 -0.18
1995M6 0.04 -0.07 -0.21
1995M7 0.05 -0.07 -0.22
1995M8 0.08 -0.06 -0.23
1995M9 0.1 -0.05 -0.23
1995M10 0.12 -0.03 -0.23
1995M11 0.16 -0.02 -0.23
1995M12 0.2 -0.01 -0.24
1996M1 0.24 0.01 -0.24
1996M2 0.26 0.02 -0.24
1996M3 0.27 0.02 -0.24
1996M4 0.3 0.03 -0.22
1996M5 0.29 0.02 -0.22
1996M6 0.28 0.01 -0.21
1996M7 0.27 0 -0.2
1996M8 0.27 -0.01 -0.19
1996M9 0.26 -0.03 -0.22
1996M10 0.24 -0.05 -0.24
1996M11 0.21 -0.09 -0.27
1996M12 0.19 -0.11 -0.28
1997M1 0.17 -0.14 -0.29
1997M2 0.16 -0.16 -0.3
1997M3 0.13 -0.19 -0.33
1997M4 0.12 -0.2 -0.34
1997M5 0.11 -0.2 -0.34
1997M6 0.11 -0.21 -0.36
1997M7 0.12 -0.21 -0.37
1997M8 0.12 -0.22 -0.38
1997M9 0.12 -0.22 -0.37
1997M10 0.15 -0.2 -0.35
1997M11 0.16 -0.19 -0.34
1997M12 0.15 -0.19 -0.34
1998M1 0.13 -0.2 -0.36
1998M2 0.12 -0.22 -0.38
1998M3 0.12 -0.23 -0.4
1998M4 0.12 -0.25 -0.42
1998M5 0.14 -0.24 -0.42
1998M6 0.14 -0.24 -0.42
1998M7 0.15 -0.22 -0.4
1998M8 0.16 -0.21 -0.4
1998M9 0.14 -0.23 -0.41
1998M10 0.12 -0.25 -0.42
1998M11 0.13 -0.26 -0.42
1998M12 0.13 -0.27 -0.41
1999M1 0.14 -0.27 -0.41
1999M2 0.14 -0.26 -0.4
1999M3 0.17 -0.22 -0.36
1999M4 0.18 -0.19 -0.33
1999M5 0.2 -0.18 -0.33
1999M6 0.22 -0.16 -0.32
1999M7 0.24 -0.15 -0.32
1999M8 0.28 -0.12 -0.29
1999M9 0.32 -0.08 -0.26
1999M10 0.35 -0.05 -0.24
1999M11 0.37 -0.05 -0.25
1999M12 0.38 -0.05 -0.25
2000M1 0.38 -0.05 -0.25
2000M2 0.37 -0.06 -0.25
2000M3 0.34 -0.08 -0.26
2000M4 0.33 -0.1 -0.29
2000M5 0.33 -0.08 -0.29
2000M6 0.35 -0.08 -0.28
2000M7 0.37 -0.06 -0.28
2000M8 0.38 -0.06 -0.29
2000M9 0.39 -0.06 -0.3
2000M10 0.4 -0.05 -0.31
2000M11 0.41 -0.04 -0.3
2000M12 0.4 -0.04 -0.32
2001M1 0.4 -0.03 -0.33
2001M2 0.41 -0.03 -0.34
2001M3 0.44 -0.02 -0.33
2001M4 0.46 0 -0.31
2001M5 0.48 0.02 -0.28
2001M6 0.5 0.05 -0.26
2001M7 0.51 0.07 -0.24
2001M8 0.54 0.11 -0.21
2001M9 0.55 0.15 -0.19
2001M10 0.56 0.17 -0.16
2001M11 0.58 0.2 -0.13
2001M12 0.61 0.24 -0.1
2002M1 0.67 0.3 -0.05
2002M2 0.71 0.36 0
2002M3 0.74 0.4 0.02
2002M4 0.76 0.44 0.04
2002M5 0.75 0.43 0.03
2002M6 0.76 0.44 0.04
2002M7 0.77 0.46 0.06
2002M8 0.79 0.47 0.07
2002M9 0.8 0.49 0.08
2002M10 0.83 0.52 0.1
2002M11 0.85 0.55 0.12
2002M12 0.89 0.59 0.14
2003M1 0.91 0.61 0.14
2003M2 0.95 0.64 0.17
2003M3 0.99 0.68 0.2
2003M4 1.03 0.71 0.23
2003M5 1.08 0.75 0.26
2003M6 1.11 0.78 0.28
2003M7 1.15 0.8 0.29
2003M8 1.19 0.83 0.31
2003M9 1.24 0.87 0.34
2003M10 1.28 0.89 0.36
2003M11 1.31 0.92 0.39
2003M12 1.35 0.96 0.44
2004M1 1.36 0.97 0.45
2004M2 1.4 1.01 0.47
2004M3 1.43 1.04 0.48
2004M4 1.47 1.07 0.5
2004M5 1.51 1.1 0.51
2004M6 1.56 1.14 0.54
2004M7 1.56 1.15 0.54
2004M8 1.56 1.16 0.54
2004M9 1.56 1.17 0.54
2004M10 1.54 1.15 0.5
2004M11 1.52 1.13 0.47
2004M12 1.51 1.12 0.44
2005M1 1.52 1.14 0.45
2005M2 1.52 1.14 0.44
2005M3 1.53 1.16 0.44
2005M4 1.49 1.14 0.41
2005M5 1.47 1.13 0.39
2005M6 1.43 1.11 0.36
2005M7 1.4 1.11 0.34
2005M8 1.39 1.1 0.32
2005M9 1.36 1.1 0.29
2005M10 1.35 1.12 0.3
2005M11 1.37 1.13 0.31
2005M12 1.37 1.15 0.31
2006M1 1.37 1.16 0.32
2006M2 1.38 1.16 0.32
2006M3 1.37 1.14 0.31
2006M4 1.38 1.16 0.34
2006M5 1.39 1.17 0.35
2006M6 1.4 1.17 0.36
2006M7 1.4 1.16 0.36
2006M8 1.39 1.14 0.35
2006M9 1.41 1.14 0.35
2006M10 1.41 1.14 0.35
2006M11 1.39 1.13 0.35
2006M12 1.37 1.13 0.35
2007M1 1.36 1.13 0.34
2007M2 1.37 1.15 0.35
2007M3 1.37 1.17 0.36
2007M4 1.39 1.19 0.36
2007M5 1.4 1.2 0.38
2007M6 1.41 1.22 0.39
2007M7 1.44 1.25 0.42
2007M8 1.48 1.29 0.45
2007M9 1.48 1.29 0.45
2007M10 1.53 1.32 0.48
2007M11 1.54 1.31 0.47
2007M12 1.56 1.31 0.45
2008M1 1.56 1.31 0.45
2008M2 1.57 1.33 0.45
2008M3 1.58 1.34 0.46
2008M4 1.58 1.34 0.44
2008M5 1.57 1.33 0.42
2008M6 1.57 1.32 0.39
2008M7 1.55 1.31 0.38
2008M8 1.53 1.3 0.36
2008M9 1.53 1.3 0.35
2008M10 1.51 1.29 0.33
2008M11 1.53 1.31 0.34
2008M12 1.53 1.32 0.35
2009M1 1.53 1.32 0.35
2009M2 1.51 1.3 0.33
2009M3 1.51 1.3 0.31
2009M4 1.5 1.28 0.28
2009M5 1.51 1.3 0.29
2009M6 1.52 1.32 0.28
2009M7 1.55 1.33 0.28
2009M8 1.6 1.37 0.32
2009M9 1.66 1.42 0.35
2009M10 1.74 1.47 0.38
2009M11 1.81 1.52 0.41
2009M12 1.89 1.58 0.45
2010M1 1.95 1.62 0.47
2010M2 1.99 1.66 0.5
2010M3 2.03 1.7 0.54
2010M4 2.07 1.73 0.55
2010M5 2.14 1.79 0.59
2010M6 2.22 1.86 0.64
2010M7 2.29 1.93 0.69
2010M8 2.32 1.95 0.7
2010M9 2.34 1.96 0.71
2010M10 2.36 1.98 0.71
2010M11 2.39 1.99 0.73
2010M12 2.4 1.99 0.73
2011M1 2.43 2 0.73
2011M2 2.47 2.03 0.74
2011M3 2.51 2.05 0.75
2011M4 2.57 2.09 0.78
2011M5 2.6 2.12 0.79
2011M6 2.64 2.14 0.8
2011M7 2.68 2.17 0.81
2011M8 2.73 2.2 0.82
2011M9 2.77 2.23 0.83
2011M10 2.79 2.24 0.83
2011M11 2.82 2.27 0.85
2011M12 2.86 2.29 0.86
2012M1 2.93 2.33 0.87
2012M2 2.96 2.35 0.87
2012M3 3.01 2.37 0.88
2012M4 3.08 2.39 0.89
2012M5 3.11 2.39 0.89
2012M6 3.12 2.37 0.88
2012M7 3.13 2.34 0.84
2012M8 3.16 2.34 0.85
2012M9 3.19 2.33 0.83
2012M10 3.21 2.31 0.82
2012M11 3.24 2.3 0.81
2012M12 3.26 2.29 0.79
2013M1 3.26 2.27 0.77
2013M2 3.28 2.26 0.78
2013M3 3.32 2.26 0.78
2013M4 3.35 2.26 0.79
2013M5 3.37 2.25 0.79
2013M6 3.39 2.26 0.78
2013M7 3.42 2.27 0.78
2013M8 3.48 2.3 0.79
2013M9 3.54 2.33 0.8
2013M10 3.64 2.39 0.82
2013M11 3.74 2.44 0.83
2013M12 3.82 2.49 0.86
2014M1 3.89 2.51 0.86
2014M2 3.95 2.54 0.87
2014M3 3.96 2.53 0.84
2014M4 3.99 2.53 0.83
2014M5 4.03 2.55 0.84
2014M6 4.11 2.58 0.86

Note: 12-month moving average.

Source: Current Population Survey microdata.

Figure 10: Female LFPR for Selected Age Categories by Approximate Birth Year

year_quarter Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64
1890Q1 ND ND 26.64
1890Q2 ND ND 28.05
1890Q3 ND ND 26.25
1890Q4 ND ND 27.16
1891Q1 ND ND 27.5
1891Q2 ND ND 27.98
1891Q3 ND ND 26.93
1891Q4 ND ND 28.17
1892Q1 ND ND 26.95
1892Q2 ND ND 27.48
1892Q3 ND ND 29.13
1892Q4 ND ND 31.02
1893Q1 ND ND 29.23
1893Q2 ND ND 29.56
1893Q3 ND ND 29.19
1893Q4 ND ND 28.58
1894Q1 ND ND 28.75
1894Q2 ND ND 30.63
1894Q3 ND ND 29.56
1894Q4 ND ND 31.23
1895Q1 ND ND 30.68
1895Q2 ND ND 32.57
1895Q3 ND ND 33.17
1895Q4 ND ND 33.68
1896Q1 ND ND 34.04
1896Q2 ND ND 36.15
1896Q3 ND ND 34.84
1896Q4 ND ND 34.47
1897Q1 ND ND 34.24
1897Q2 ND ND 34.86
1897Q3 ND ND 34.16
1897Q4 ND ND 34.88
1898Q1 ND 33.69 34.93
1898Q2 ND 34.55 35.66
1898Q3 ND 36.2 34.42
1898Q4 ND 35.63 35.82
1899Q1 ND 35.07 35.76
1899Q2 ND 35.76 37.32
1899Q3 ND 36.21 36.54
1899Q4 ND 36.69 36.76
1900Q1 ND 37.41 35.87
1900Q2 ND 37.89 37.32
1900Q3 ND 37.91 37.11
1900Q4 ND 38.45 38.29
1901Q1 ND 38.34 38.41
1901Q2 ND 38.97 38
1901Q3 ND 40.87 37.32
1901Q4 ND 40.37 37.9
1902Q1 ND 40.94 37.91
1902Q2 ND 39.82 39.28
1902Q3 ND 39.52 38.57
1902Q4 ND 40.21 39.01
1903Q1 ND 40.87 39.52
1903Q2 ND 40.25 40.42
1903Q3 ND 40.51 38.99
1903Q4 ND 39.89 39.72
1904Q1 ND 41.12 39.87
1904Q2 ND 41.26 41.46
1904Q3 ND 40.56 39.2
1904Q4 ND 41.64 40.08
1905Q1 ND 42.37 40.8
1905Q2 ND 42.96 41.72
1905Q3 ND 44.73 40.33
1905Q4 ND 45.18 41.36
1906Q1 ND 44.77 41.37
1906Q2 ND 45.12 41.88
1906Q3 ND 45.94 41.8
1906Q4 ND 45.97 42.33
1907Q1 ND 46.06 42.04
1907Q2 ND 46.38 42.47
1907Q3 ND 46.71 42.33
1907Q4 ND 46.84 42.73
1908Q1 36.68 47.3 42.41
1908Q2 36.89 47.98 43.01
1908Q3 37.46 48.27 41.7
1908Q4 36.56 47.78 42.67
1909Q1 37.41 48.59 43.06
1909Q2 38.16 49.55 43.54
1909Q3 38.6 48.82 42.8
1909Q4 38.15 48.99 42.88
1910Q1 37.87 48.82 43.03
1910Q2 38.76 49.55 43.18
1910Q3 39.97 50.5 42.44
1910Q4 39.61 50.29 43.5
1911Q1 39.54 49.8 43.76
1911Q2 39.7 50.42 42.72
1911Q3 39.51 49.93 41.46
1911Q4 40.32 50.26 43.63
1912Q1 40.17 50.38 42.81
1912Q2 40.42 49.81 42.3
1912Q3 40.49 50.04 41.57
1912Q4 40.68 49.86 41.72
1913Q1 42.2 50.59 41.68
1913Q2 41.09 50.77 40.97
1913Q3 40.27 49.95 40.72
1913Q4 41.66 51.1 40.96
1914Q1 41.27 51.57 41.38
1914Q2 40.88 51.43 41.1
1914Q3 41.36 51.49 40.25
1914Q4 41.43 51.12 39.99
1915Q1 40.58 50.66 41.36
1915Q2 41.22 50.89 41.03
1915Q3 42.28 51.31 40.33
1915Q4 42.35 50.83 41.07
1916Q1 42.49 51.04 41.67
1916Q2 43.5 51.74 40.55
1916Q3 43.38 52.09 40.47
1916Q4 42.95 51.93 41.26
1917Q1 43.01 51.51 41.1
1917Q2 43.11 51.56 40.87
1917Q3 43.27 51.76 40.1
1917Q4 43.74 52.39 41.61
1918Q1 43.35 52.23 41.53
1918Q2 43.42 52.52 41.13
1918Q3 43.69 52.28 40.62
1918Q4 43.13 52.27 41.97
1919Q1 43.52 53.22 42.25
1919Q2 43.12 53.53 41.46
1919Q3 43.05 53.91 40.88
1919Q4 43.66 54.46 42.38
1920Q1 42.93 54.3 41.81
1920Q2 43.84 54.22 41.33
1920Q3 43.59 54.45 40.84
1920Q4 43.4 54.65 41.29
1921Q1 44.36 54.29 41.53
1921Q2 44.4 54.19 41.58
1921Q3 43.72 54.14 40.74
1921Q4 42.85 54.38 41.57
1922Q1 43.53 54.62 41.5
1922Q2 44.28 53.81 41.66
1922Q3 44.3 53.94 41.83
1922Q4 44.33 53.06 42.2
1923Q1 44.95 53.06 41.79
1923Q2 44.85 53.55 41.14
1923Q3 44.9 54.04 41.1
1923Q4 44.9 54.14 41.95
1924Q1 44.49 54.28 41.63
1924Q2 45.77 54.94 42.1
1924Q3 44.8 54.94 41.35
1924Q4 44.96 54.41 41.86
1925Q1 45.46 54.69 42
1925Q2 46.42 54.7 42.05
1925Q3 46.37 54.52 41.6
1925Q4 46.17 54.54 42.27
1926Q1 46.2 54.45 41.72
1926Q2 46.3 54.73 42.31
1926Q3 47.1 55.31 42.73
1926Q4 47.78 55.42 42.48
1927Q1 47.49 55.45 41.76
1927Q2 47.94 55.62 42.51
1927Q3 48.34 55.49 42.41
1927Q4 48.63 56.46 44.05
1928Q1 48.48 56.44 42.77
1928Q2 48.93 56.18 42.94
1928Q3 48.96 57.55 43.12
1928Q4 49.23 58.1 45.08
1929Q1 49.24 58.21 44.75
1929Q2 49.51 57.32 44.75
1929Q3 50.21 58.64 44.53
1929Q4 50.74 59.26 46.26
1930Q1 50.96 59.61 45.36
1930Q2 51.07 59.43 44.9
1930Q3 51.03 60.08 45
1930Q4 51.41 60.32 45.65
1931Q1 51.77 61.45 44.74
1931Q2 51.26 61.5 44.88
1931Q3 51.47 60.4 45.51
1931Q4 51.75 61.03 45.64
1932Q1 51.96 60.94 45.9
1932Q2 51.93 61.8 46.14
1932Q3 51.75 62.01 47.14
1932Q4 52.27 61.64 46.83
1933Q1 52.62 61.06 46.8
1933Q2 53.64 61.58 47.35
1933Q3 53.42 62.59 46.76
1933Q4 53.61 62.43 47.84
1934Q1 53.74 62.04 48.62
1934Q2 54.42 63.06 49.27
1934Q3 55.53 63.2 48.2
1934Q4 55.23 63.14 49.37
1935Q1 55.49 64.45 49.25
1935Q2 55.6 64.46 48.73
1935Q3 55.92 64.25 49.18
1935Q4 56.31 64.43 49.75
1936Q1 57.29 65.61 49.78
1936Q2 57.6 65.51 48.41
1936Q3 57.88 66.04 49.65
1936Q4 58.56 66.59 50.54
1937Q1 58.78 66.3 50.59
1937Q2 59.41 66.98 50.35
1937Q3 59.77 67.29 50.51
1937Q4 60.31 67.87 52.13
1938Q1 61.1 68.15 51.68
1938Q2 61.65 68.25 50.98
1938Q3 61.61 69.37 50.3
1938Q4 62.1 70.01 51.81
1939Q1 62.42 70.48 51.48
1939Q2 63.15 70.45 51.24
1939Q3 64.03 70.17 51.29
1939Q4 64.83 70.8 51.84
1940Q1 65.24 70.82 52.37
1940Q2 65.57 71.07 51.51
1940Q3 65.33 71.34 51.43
1940Q4 65.72 71.58 52.2
1941Q1 66.24 71.72 52.97
1941Q2 66.62 71.85 53.14
1941Q3 66.97 72.36 52.86
1941Q4 67.5 71.93 53.67
1942Q1 67.69 72.15 54.82
1942Q2 67.79 72.79 54.53
1942Q3 68.1 73.1 54.79
1942Q4 68.27 72.49 56.47
1943Q1 68.73 72.84 56.93
1943Q2 68.33 73.21 56.53
1943Q3 68.85 73.44 55.86
1943Q4 68.88 74.44 57.2
1944Q1 69.24 74.63 56.75
1944Q2 70.28 73.9 56
1944Q3 70.4 74.88 55.72
1944Q4 70.62 74.86 56.91
1945Q1 71.22 74.73 56.75
1945Q2 71.63 74.11 56.59
1945Q3 71.78 74.33 57.04
1945Q4 72.42 74.41 57.77
1946Q1 72.37 74.93 57.68
1946Q2 72.91 75.5 57.89
1946Q3 73.6 75.69 58.42
1946Q4 73.57 75.37 58.79
1947Q1 74.12 75.82 58.55
1947Q2 74.6 75.91 57.87
1947Q3 74.54 76.4 58.17
1947Q4 74.75 75.98 58.78
1948Q1 74.83 75.73 59.41
1948Q2 74.7 75.68 58.46
1948Q3 75.17 76.59 58.42
1948Q4 75.94 76.66 60.24
1949Q1 76.21 76.43 60.03
1949Q2 75.88 76.72 60.29
1949Q3 75.84 76.92 59.69
1949Q4 76.06 76.66 59.81
1950Q1 76.52 77.12 60.14
1950Q2 76.37 77.1 60.79
1950Q3 76.5 76.34 60.24
1950Q4 76.26 76.62 59.64
1951Q1 76.24 76.76 59.67
1951Q2 76.71 76.56 59.56
1951Q3 76.62 76.32 59.44
1951Q4 76.62 76.06 59.42
1952Q1 76.77 76.04 59.6
1952Q2 76.75 76.22 59.58
1952Q3 76.7 75.8 58.71
1952Q4 76.7 75.91 59.89
1953Q1 76.28 76.51 59.96
1953Q2 76.43 77.01 59.32
1953Q3 76.76 76.94 58.82
1953Q4 76.79 76.57 58.69
1954Q1 77.09 76.74 58.94
1954Q2 76.87 76.57 58.83
1954Q3 77.2 76.43 ND
1954Q4 77.18 76.1 ND
1955Q1 77.02 75.89 ND
1955Q2 77.35 75.95 ND
1955Q3 77.07 76.21 ND
1955Q4 77.33 75.81 ND
1956Q1 77.01 76.01 ND
1956Q2 77.37 76.22 ND
1956Q3 77.72 76.02 ND
1956Q4 78.07 75.8 ND
1957Q1 77.72 75.99 ND
1957Q2 77.2 76 ND
1957Q3 78.39 76.19 ND
1957Q4 77.7 75.83 ND
1958Q1 77.34 75.76 ND
1958Q2 76.96 76 ND
1958Q3 77 76.1 ND
1958Q4 77.04 76.41 ND
1959Q1 77.06 76.31 ND
1959Q2 77.31 76.02 ND
1959Q3 77.06 75.65 ND
1959Q4 77.49 76.08 ND
1960Q1 77.48 76.43 ND
1960Q2 77.31 75.61 ND
1960Q3 77.18 75.28 ND
1960Q4 76.93 75.62 ND
1961Q1 77.76 75.48 ND
1961Q2 77.02 75.37 ND
1961Q3 76.69 75.31 ND
1961Q4 76.94 75.32 ND
1962Q1 77.1 74.63 ND
1962Q2 76.49 74.43 ND
1962Q3 75.93 75.03 ND
1962Q4 76.23 74.51 ND
1963Q1 76.44 74.36 ND
1963Q2 76.41 74.4 ND
1963Q3 75.54 74.06 ND
1963Q4 75.59 73.65 ND
1964Q1 75.48 73.78 ND
1964Q2 75.67 74.17 ND
1964Q3 75.71 ND ND
1964Q4 75.68 ND ND
1965Q1 75.61 ND ND
1965Q2 75.73 ND ND
1965Q3 75.97 ND ND
1965Q4 75.67 ND ND
1966Q1 75.9 ND ND
1966Q2 75.42 ND ND
1966Q3 75.97 ND ND
1966Q4 76.14 ND ND
1967Q1 75.69 ND ND
1967Q2 74.98 ND ND
1967Q3 75.5 ND ND
1967Q4 75.84 ND ND
1968Q1 75.81 ND ND
1968Q2 76.42 ND ND
1968Q3 76.17 ND ND
1968Q4 76.18 ND ND
1969Q1 75.91 ND ND
1969Q2 76.24 ND ND
1969Q3 76.1 ND ND
1969Q4 75.27 ND ND
1970Q1 75.59 ND ND
1970Q2 75.23 ND ND
1970Q3 74.81 ND ND
1970Q4 75.06 ND ND
1971Q1 75 ND ND
1971Q2 74.92 ND ND
1971Q3 74.32 ND ND
1971Q4 74.48 ND ND
1972Q1 74.97 ND ND
1972Q2 74.85 ND ND
1972Q3 74.55 ND ND
1972Q4 74.77 ND ND
1973Q1 73.93 ND ND
1973Q2 73.79 ND ND
1973Q3 74.47 ND ND
1973Q4 73.86 ND ND
1974Q1 74.76 ND ND
1974Q2 74.08 ND ND

Source: Current Population Survey.

Figure 11: Labor Force Participation Rate Model

year_quarter actual fitted_values trend_values
1976Q1 61.66 61.89 62.26
1976Q2 61.9 61.92 62.38
1976Q3 62.17 61.97 62.48
1976Q4 62.15 62.04 62.58
1977Q1 62.25 62.27 62.7
1977Q2 62.6 62.47 62.85
1977Q3 62.66 62.61 62.95
1977Q4 63.03 62.73 63.02
1978Q1 63 62.91 63.12
1978Q2 63.37 63.26 63.22
1978Q3 63.49 63.37 63.3
1978Q4 63.74 63.58 63.38
1979Q1 64.01 63.69 63.49
1979Q2 63.7 63.95 63.58
1979Q3 63.95 63.97 63.68
1979Q4 64.05 63.85 63.69
1980Q1 64.18 63.84 63.78
1980Q2 64.05 63.94 63.86
1980Q3 64 64.04 64.01
1980Q4 63.97 64.16 64.08
1981Q1 64.26 64.21 64.2
1981Q2 64.4 64.21 64.32
1981Q3 63.98 64.28 64.44
1981Q4 64.09 64.27 64.54
1982Q1 64.11 64.26 64.64
1982Q2 64.36 64.33 64.8
1982Q3 64.4 64.36 64.87
1982Q4 64.46 64.27 64.92
1983Q1 64.13 64.32 65.02
1983Q2 64.26 64.4 65.11
1983Q3 64.62 64.48 65.18
1983Q4 64.49 64.57 65.21
1984Q1 64.45 64.78 65.28
1984Q2 64.85 64.83 65.34
1984Q3 64.84 64.95 65.38
1984Q4 64.91 65.05 65.4
1985Q1 65.21 65.15 65.43
1985Q2 65.16 65.26 65.46
1985Q3 65.17 65.32 65.46
1985Q4 65.39 65.47 65.51
1986Q1 65.43 65.62 65.66
1986Q2 65.63 65.65 65.71
1986Q3 65.76 65.69 65.74
1986Q4 65.77 65.74 65.8
1987Q1 65.86 65.78 65.86
1987Q2 65.95 65.79 65.89
1987Q3 66.02 65.91 65.95
1987Q4 66.13 66 66
1988Q1 66.22 66.16 66.04
1988Q2 66.18 66.31 66.08
1988Q3 66.4 66.44 66.18
1988Q4 66.54 66.61 66.27
1989Q1 66.81 66.8 66.38
1989Q2 66.87 66.94 66.49
1989Q3 66.93 66.9 66.52
1989Q4 66.98 66.92 66.56
1990Q1 67.03 67 66.58
1990Q2 66.82 67 66.59
1990Q3 66.74 66.77 66.6
1990Q4 66.66 66.73 66.64
1991Q1 66.54 66.76 66.67
1991Q2 66.54 66.75 66.69
1991Q3 66.34 66.66 66.7
1991Q4 66.35 66.62 66.75
1992Q1 66.56 66.59 66.75
1992Q2 66.81 66.52 66.77
1992Q3 66.82 66.48 66.76
1992Q4 66.54 66.41 66.72
1993Q1 66.41 66.3 66.65
1993Q2 66.57 66.26 66.64
1993Q3 66.55 66.27 66.61
1993Q4 66.58 66.3 66.62
1994Q1 66.38 66.37 66.69
1994Q2 66.3 66.39 66.68
1994Q3 66.33 66.37 66.62
1994Q4 66.53 66.38 66.57
1995Q1 66.53 66.28 66.52
1995Q2 66.44 66.32 66.5
1995Q3 66.4 66.29 66.45
1995Q4 66.29 66.35 66.45
1996Q1 66.3 66.36 66.41
1996Q2 66.49 66.43 66.48
1996Q3 66.63 66.48 66.48
1996Q4 66.76 66.5 66.48
1997Q1 66.8 66.55 66.48
1997Q2 66.86 66.68 66.52
1997Q3 66.9 66.72 66.51
1997Q4 66.81 66.82 66.54
1998Q1 67 66.89 66.56
1998Q2 66.88 66.99 66.54
1998Q3 66.95 66.92 66.53
1998Q4 67 66.98 66.51
1999Q1 67.1 66.97 66.52
1999Q2 67.01 66.95 66.49
1999Q3 66.99 66.94 66.47
1999Q4 67 66.94 66.4
2000Q1 67.32 66.93 66.37
2000Q2 67.15 66.87 66.29
2000Q3 66.87 66.86 66.33
2000Q4 66.86 66.95 66.35
2001Q1 67.12 66.9 66.34
2001Q2 66.69 66.85 66.38
2001Q3 66.57 66.57 66.38
2001Q4 66.58 66.39 66.31
2002Q1 66.5 66.28 66.29
2002Q2 66.51 66.24 66.29
2002Q3 66.43 66.2 66.28
2002Q4 66.18 66.08 66.23
2003Q1 66.14 66.03 66.21
2003Q2 66.2 65.97 66.19
2003Q3 65.88 65.93 66.16
2003Q4 65.77 65.92 66.15
2004Q1 65.78 65.91 66.11
2004Q2 65.69 65.88 66.08
2004Q3 65.7 65.9 66.08
2004Q4 65.64 65.84 66
2005Q1 65.58 65.77 65.91
2005Q2 65.74 65.77 65.88
2005Q3 65.82 65.74 65.83
2005Q4 65.69 65.7 65.8
2006Q1 65.77 65.78 65.72
2006Q2 65.77 65.77 65.7
2006Q3 65.82 65.82 65.7
2006Q4 65.92 65.8 65.63
2007Q1 65.94 65.8 65.58
2007Q2 65.57 65.8 65.58
2007Q3 65.55 65.75 65.57
2007Q4 65.56 65.7 65.5
2008Q1 65.73 65.56 65.4
2008Q2 65.65 65.49 65.32
2008Q3 65.68 65.45 65.33
2008Q4 65.52 65.4 65.31
2009Q1 65.32 65.22 65.25
2009Q2 65.34 65.12 65.18
2009Q3 65 65.05 65.14
2009Q4 64.52 64.84 65
2010Q1 64.49 64.6 64.8
2010Q2 64.56 64.43 64.64
2010Q3 64.31 64.43 64.61
2010Q4 64.09 64.24 64.49
2011Q1 63.91 64.1 64.3
2011Q2 63.88 64.05 64.29
2011Q3 63.82 63.94 64.21
2011Q4 63.81 63.88 64.17
2012Q1 63.79 63.84 64.05
2012Q2 63.77 63.7 64.01
2012Q3 63.62 63.58 63.92
2012Q4 63.73 63.56 63.87
2013Q1 63.47 63.52 63.85
2013Q2 63.41 63.45 63.78
2013Q3 63.25 63.36 63.69
2013Q4 62.89 63.3 63.63
2014Q1 63.02 63.23 63.57
2014Q2 62.81 63.11 63.42

Source: Authors' calculations.

Figure 12: Labor Force Participation Rate Mode Cyclical Component

year_quarter Cyclical Component
1976Q1 -0.37
1976Q2 -0.47
1976Q3 -0.51
1976Q4 -0.54
1977Q1 -0.44
1977Q2 -0.37
1977Q3 -0.33
1977Q4 -0.29
1978Q1 -0.21
1978Q2 0.04
1978Q3 0.07
1978Q4 0.2
1979Q1 0.2
1979Q2 0.37
1979Q3 0.29
1979Q4 0.16
1980Q1 0.07
1980Q2 0.07
1980Q3 0.03
1980Q4 0.07
1981Q1 0.01
1981Q2 -0.12
1981Q3 -0.16
1981Q4 -0.27
1982Q1 -0.38
1982Q2 -0.47
1982Q3 -0.5
1982Q4 -0.66
1983Q1 -0.7
1983Q2 -0.71
1983Q3 -0.7
1983Q4 -0.64
1984Q1 -0.51
1984Q2 -0.5
1984Q3 -0.43
1984Q4 -0.35
1985Q1 -0.28
1985Q2 -0.2
1985Q3 -0.14
1985Q4 -0.04
1986Q1 -0.04
1986Q2 -0.06
1986Q3 -0.05
1986Q4 -0.06
1987Q1 -0.08
1987Q2 -0.1
1987Q3 -0.05
1987Q4 0
1988Q1 0.13
1988Q2 0.23
1988Q3 0.25
1988Q4 0.35
1989Q1 0.42
1989Q2 0.45
1989Q3 0.38
1989Q4 0.36
1990Q1 0.42
1990Q2 0.41
1990Q3 0.17
1990Q4 0.09
1991Q1 0.09
1991Q2 0.06
1991Q3 -0.04
1991Q4 -0.13
1992Q1 -0.16
1992Q2 -0.25
1992Q3 -0.28
1992Q4 -0.31
1993Q1 -0.35
1993Q2 -0.38
1993Q3 -0.34
1993Q4 -0.32
1994Q1 -0.32
1994Q2 -0.29
1994Q3 -0.25
1994Q4 -0.18
1995Q1 -0.23
1995Q2 -0.18
1995Q3 -0.16
1995Q4 -0.1
1996Q1 -0.05
1996Q2 -0.05
1996Q3 0
1996Q4 0.02
1997Q1 0.07
1997Q2 0.16
1997Q3 0.2
1997Q4 0.28
1998Q1 0.33
1998Q2 0.45
1998Q3 0.4
1998Q4 0.47
1999Q1 0.45
1999Q2 0.46
1999Q3 0.47
1999Q4 0.54
2000Q1 0.57
2000Q2 0.58
2000Q3 0.53
2000Q4 0.61
2001Q1 0.56
2001Q2 0.47
2001Q3 0.2
2001Q4 0.07
2002Q1 -0.01
2002Q2 -0.05
2002Q3 -0.08
2002Q4 -0.15
2003Q1 -0.18
2003Q2 -0.22
2003Q3 -0.23
2003Q4 -0.23
2004Q1 -0.2
2004Q2 -0.21
2004Q3 -0.18
2004Q4 -0.16
2005Q1 -0.14
2005Q2 -0.11
2005Q3 -0.1
2005Q4 -0.11
2006Q1 0.06
2006Q2 0.07
2006Q3 0.12
2006Q4 0.17
2007Q1 0.22
2007Q2 0.22
2007Q3 0.17
2007Q4 0.21
2008Q1 0.16
2008Q2 0.16
2008Q3 0.12
2008Q4 0.1
2009Q1 -0.03
2009Q2 -0.06
2009Q3 -0.09
2009Q4 -0.16
2010Q1 -0.21
2010Q2 -0.21
2010Q3 -0.18
2010Q4 -0.26
2011Q1 -0.2
2011Q2 -0.24
2011Q3 -0.28
2011Q4 -0.29
2012Q1 -0.21
2012Q2 -0.31
2012Q3 -0.33
2012Q4 -0.32
2013Q1 -0.33
2013Q2 -0.33
2013Q3 -0.33
2013Q4 -0.33
2014Q1 -0.34
2014Q2 -0.31

Source: Authors' calculations.

Figure 13: Model Trends for Age/Sex Groups

year_quarter Men ages 25-54 Women ages 25-54 Both sexes ages 16-24 Both sexes ages 55 and over
1976Q1 93.98 57.66 66.91 34.35
1976Q2 93.97 58.1 66.98 34.35
1976Q3 93.94 58.56 67.06 34.24
1976Q4 93.91 58.98 67.13 34.2
1977Q1 93.84 59.33 67.26 34.27
1977Q2 93.84 59.73 67.35 34.37
1977Q3 93.81 60.11 67.38 34.39
1977Q4 93.79 60.47 67.44 34.3
1978Q1 93.77 60.81 67.67 34.15
1978Q2 93.75 61.23 67.74 34.08
1978Q3 93.75 61.6 67.76 34.02
1978Q4 93.73 62 67.82 33.91
1979Q1 93.72 62.34 68.02 33.85
1979Q2 93.71 62.81 68.04 33.73
1979Q3 93.71 63.21 68.06 33.68
1979Q4 93.69 63.53 68.06 33.47
1980Q1 93.69 63.93 68.12 33.33
1980Q2 93.68 64.29 68.16 33.25
1980Q3 93.67 64.67 68.25 33.29
1980Q4 93.68 65 68.26 33.22
1981Q1 93.68 65.37 68.37 33.17
1981Q2 93.69 65.74 68.39 33.17
1981Q3 93.7 66.19 68.37 33.14
1981Q4 93.71 66.6 68.39 33
1982Q1 93.73 66.96 68.42 32.93
1982Q2 93.74 67.35 68.43 33.07
1982Q3 93.74 67.7 68.44 32.94
1982Q4 93.76 68.07 68.47 32.65
1983Q1 93.76 68.36 68.62 32.53
1983Q2 93.74 68.74 68.63 32.42
1983Q3 93.71 69.03 68.64 32.33
1983Q4 93.69 69.26 68.64 32.14
1984Q1 93.68 69.53 68.58 32.08
1984Q2 93.65 69.79 68.58 31.94
1984Q3 93.63 70 68.56 31.83
1984Q4 93.6 70.21 68.53 31.67
1985Q1 93.59 70.39 68.41 31.75
1985Q2 93.56 70.61 68.35 31.6
1985Q3 93.51 70.77 68.26 31.47
1985Q4 93.47 71 68.18 31.43
1986Q1 93.44 71.25 68.11 31.4
1986Q2 93.42 71.43 68.05 31.35
1986Q3 93.39 71.56 67.95 31.31
1986Q4 93.36 71.79 67.79 31.31
1987Q1 93.32 72.02 67.71 31.26
1987Q2 93.29 72.2 67.6 31.13
1987Q3 93.27 72.42 67.56 31.07
1987Q4 93.27 72.61 67.55 30.94
1988Q1 93.22 72.82 67.55 30.73
1988Q2 93.19 73.04 67.47 30.57
1988Q3 93.16 73.25 67.5 30.59
1988Q4 93.16 73.47 67.48 30.57
1989Q1 93.1 73.73 67.5 30.6
1989Q2 93.06 73.87 67.55 30.72
1989Q3 93.02 74.03 67.39 30.71
1989Q4 93 74.22 67.36 30.57
1990Q1 92.97 74.42 67.29 30.37
1990Q2 92.92 74.55 67.4 30.19
1990Q3 92.88 74.68 67.29 30.14
1990Q4 92.84 74.85 67.12 30.17
1991Q1 92.81 74.95 67.13 30.17
1991Q2 92.79 75.02 67.14 30.13
1991Q3 92.72 75.14 67.01 30.15
1991Q4 92.67 75.24 66.99 30.17
1992Q1 92.59 75.25 66.97 30.2
1992Q2 92.54 75.31 66.89 30.24
1992Q3 92.49 75.37 66.84 30.19
1992Q4 92.41 75.42 66.8 30.04
1993Q1 92.34 75.42 66.69 29.87
1993Q2 92.29 75.46 66.56 29.81
1993Q3 92.22 75.5 66.44 29.79
1993Q4 92.14 75.52 66.39 29.87
1994Q1 92.09 75.53 66.19 30.23
1994Q2 92.04 75.58 66.09 30.23
1994Q3 91.98 75.6 65.94 30.19
1994Q4 91.92 75.56 65.87 30.08
1995Q1 91.89 75.65 65.71 29.89
1995Q2 91.85 75.66 65.51 30.03
1995Q3 91.79 75.65 65.25 30.09
1995Q4 91.74 75.67 65.13 30.17
1996Q1 91.67 75.71 64.87 30.24
1996Q2 91.64 75.74 64.7 30.5
1996Q3 91.64 75.82 64.44 30.6
1996Q4 91.61 75.89 64.5 30.56
1997Q1 91.56 75.88 64.38 30.77
1997Q2 91.55 75.94 64.29 30.82
1997Q3 91.52 76.02 64.14 31.01
1997Q4 91.53 76.05 64.14 31.17
1998Q1 91.5 76.09 64.11 31.42
1998Q2 91.49 76.13 63.97 31.43
1998Q3 91.49 76.17 63.92 31.63
1998Q4 91.45 76.12 63.86 31.78
1999Q1 91.42 76.14 63.77 31.97
1999Q2 91.39 76.18 63.62 32.02
1999Q3 91.34 76.18 63.69 32.01
1999Q4 91.28 76.14 63.55 32.01
2000Q1 91.25 76.18 63.47 31.98
2000Q2 91.24 76.15 63.43 31.91
2000Q3 91.19 76.12 63.5 32.18
2000Q4 91.15 76.12 63.44 32.34
2001Q1 91.09 76.14 63.18 32.55
2001Q2 91.12 76.14 63.1 32.86
2001Q3 91.09 76.13 62.98 33.15
2001Q4 91 76.12 62.83 33.35
2002Q1 90.96 76.13 62.73 33.51
2002Q2 90.96 76.15 62.58 33.77
2002Q3 90.91 76.09 62.51 34.11
2002Q4 90.86 76.06 62.52 34.25
2003Q1 90.85 76.02 62.01 34.65
2003Q2 90.83 76.01 61.83 34.87
2003Q3 90.78 75.96 61.64 35.15
2003Q4 90.72 75.91 61.5 35.49
2004Q1 90.67 75.85 61.28 35.87
2004Q2 90.63 75.77 61.16 36.14
2004Q3 90.58 75.74 61.21 36.35
2004Q4 90.57 75.67 60.84 36.56
2005Q1 90.51 75.64 60.59 36.67
2005Q2 90.46 75.58 60.52 36.84
2005Q3 90.38 75.6 60.27 37.01
2005Q4 90.36 75.57 59.76 37.37
2006Q1 90.35 75.53 59.57 37.45
2006Q2 90.29 75.51 59.37 37.75
2006Q3 90.23 75.53 59.19 38.03
2006Q4 90.18 75.51 58.84 38.21
2007Q1 90.17 75.5 58.77 38.26
2007Q2 90.11 75.52 58.51 38.59
2007Q3 90.08 75.49 58.4 38.83
2007Q4 90 75.45 58.19 38.96
2008Q1 89.96 75.43 58.01 38.99
2008Q2 89.9 75.37 57.85 39.06
2008Q3 89.86 75.42 57.62 39.32
2008Q4 89.78 75.41 57.43 39.61
2009Q1 89.71 75.35 57.37 39.86
2009Q2 89.64 75.26 57.22 40.03
2009Q3 89.59 75.23 57.14 40.17
2009Q4 89.5 75.2 57.02 40.09
2010Q1 89.43 75.07 56.92 39.96
2010Q2 89.3 74.95 56.82 39.85
2010Q3 89.29 74.96 56.57 40.04
2010Q4 89.22 74.88 56.24 40.11
2011Q1 89.16 74.84 56.37 39.99
2011Q2 89.07 74.8 56.38 40.17
2011Q3 89.04 74.78 56.23 40.21
2011Q4 89 74.81 56.05 40.36
2012Q1 88.92 74.73 55.86 40.42
2012Q2 88.88 74.75 55.82 40.47
2012Q3 88.83 74.72 55.75 40.47
2012Q4 88.83 74.69 55.62 40.63
2013Q1 88.76 74.66 55.54 40.81
2013Q2 88.71 74.65 55.49 40.8
2013Q3 88.66 74.65 55.4 40.75
2013Q4 88.62 74.68 55.21 40.82
2014Q1 88.62 74.68 55.03 40.87
2014Q2 88.55 74.69 54.77 40.75

Source: Authors' calculations.

Figure 14: Model Trend Varying Cohort Extrapolation

year_quarter Extrapolating last 0 cohorts Extrapolating last 10 cohorts Extrapolating last 15 cohorts Extrapolating last 20 cohorts actual
1976Q1 62.31 62.26 62.21 62.08 61.657
1976Q2 62.43 62.38 62.34 62.21 61.902
1976Q3 62.53 62.48 62.43 62.32 62.165
1976Q4 62.63 62.58 62.54 62.44 62.154
1977Q1 62.74 62.7 62.71 62.63 62.253
1977Q2 62.89 62.85 62.87 62.8 62.601
1977Q3 62.98 62.95 62.97 62.91 62.660
1977Q4 63.06 63.02 63.05 63 63.027
1978Q1 63.14 63.12 63.16 63.11 63.003
1978Q2 63.24 63.22 63.27 63.22 63.371
1978Q3 63.32 63.3 63.35 63.32 63.489
1978Q4 63.4 63.38 63.43 63.4 63.738
1979Q1 63.51 63.49 63.54 63.51 64.012
1979Q2 63.6 63.58 63.63 63.62 63.702
1979Q3 63.69 63.68 63.72 63.72 63.946
1979Q4 63.7 63.7 63.74 63.74 64.054
1980Q1 63.79 63.78 63.8 63.83 64.176
1980Q2 63.87 63.87 63.89 63.93 64.052
1980Q3 64.01 64.01 64.03 64.08 64.002
1980Q4 64.09 64.09 64.11 64.16 63.966
1981Q1 64.21 64.2 64.22 64.27 64.259
1981Q2 64.33 64.32 64.34 64.39 64.403
1981Q3 64.45 64.44 64.45 64.51 63.977
1981Q4 64.54 64.54 64.54 64.6 64.093
1982Q1 64.65 64.64 64.61 64.67 64.107
1982Q2 64.81 64.8 64.76 64.83 64.364
1982Q3 64.89 64.87 64.83 64.9 64.401
1982Q4 64.94 64.92 64.88 64.95 64.457
1983Q1 65.02 65.02 65.04 65.11 64.131
1983Q2 65.11 65.11 65.12 65.19 64.264
1983Q3 65.18 65.18 65.18 65.25 64.623
1983Q4 65.21 65.21 65.21 65.27 64.493
1984Q1 65.31 65.28 65.2 65.3 64.454
1984Q2 65.36 65.34 65.25 65.36 64.847
1984Q3 65.41 65.38 65.29 65.4 64.841
1984Q4 65.43 65.4 65.31 65.42 64.907
1985Q1 65.44 65.43 65.43 65.5 65.207
1985Q2 65.47 65.46 65.46 65.53 65.155
1985Q3 65.47 65.46 65.46 65.53 65.171
1985Q4 65.52 65.52 65.52 65.59 65.392
1986Q1 65.68 65.66 65.63 65.72 65.434
1986Q2 65.72 65.71 65.68 65.76 65.627
1986Q3 65.76 65.74 65.72 65.79 65.757
1986Q4 65.81 65.8 65.78 65.85 65.768
1987Q1 65.87 65.86 65.83 65.89 65.856
1987Q2 65.9 65.89 65.86 65.92 65.947
1987Q3 65.97 65.95 65.92 65.99 66.020
1987Q4 66.01 66 65.97 66.03 66.134
1988Q1 66.04 66.04 66.04 66.09 66.221
1988Q2 66.08 66.08 66.08 66.14 66.179
1988Q3 66.18 66.19 66.19 66.25 66.403
1988Q4 66.26 66.27 66.27 66.32 66.540
1989Q1 66.38 66.38 66.39 66.44 66.805
1989Q2 66.48 66.49 66.5 66.56 66.870
1989Q3 66.51 66.52 66.53 66.59 66.931
1989Q4 66.55 66.56 66.56 66.62 66.984
1990Q1 66.58 66.58 66.55 66.61 67.028
1990Q2 66.59 66.59 66.56 66.63 66.823
1990Q3 66.6 66.6 66.56 66.64 66.744
1990Q4 66.64 66.64 66.61 66.68 66.660
1991Q1 66.67 66.67 66.64 66.73 66.541
1991Q2 66.68 66.69 66.66 66.76 66.536
1991Q3 66.69 66.7 66.67 66.77 66.340
1991Q4 66.74 66.75 66.73 66.82 66.353
1992Q1 66.73 66.75 66.75 66.84 66.564
1992Q2 66.75 66.77 66.77 66.86 66.809
1992Q3 66.75 66.76 66.76 66.85 66.824
1992Q4 66.71 66.72 66.72 66.81 66.539
1993Q1 66.64 66.65 66.63 66.72 66.414
1993Q2 66.63 66.64 66.61 66.69 66.569
1993Q3 66.61 66.61 66.58 66.66 66.548
1993Q4 66.62 66.62 66.59 66.68 66.577
1994Q1 66.7 66.69 66.61 66.71 66.382
1994Q2 66.69 66.68 66.61 66.7 66.298
1994Q3 66.64 66.62 66.55 66.64 66.330
1994Q4 66.58 66.57 66.49 66.58 66.525
1995Q1 66.53 66.52 66.44 66.51 66.526
1995Q2 66.51 66.5 66.42 66.49 66.441
1995Q3 66.47 66.46 66.37 66.44 66.400
1995Q4 66.46 66.45 66.37 66.42 66.292
1996Q1 66.44 66.41 66.27 66.35 66.295
1996Q2 66.51 66.48 66.34 66.41 66.486
1996Q3 66.5 66.48 66.34 66.4 66.631
1996Q4 66.51 66.48 66.35 66.41 66.758
1997Q1 66.51 66.48 66.32 66.4 66.795
1997Q2 66.55 66.52 66.36 66.43 66.860
1997Q3 66.54 66.51 66.36 66.43 66.904
1997Q4 66.56 66.54 66.39 66.45 66.810
1998Q1 66.59 66.56 66.39 66.44 66.997
1998Q2 66.57 66.54 66.37 66.42 66.880
1998Q3 66.55 66.53 66.36 66.41 66.952
1998Q4 66.54 66.51 66.35 66.39 67.004
1999Q1 66.55 66.52 66.32 66.38 67.100
1999Q2 66.52 66.49 66.3 66.36 67.007
1999Q3 66.5 66.47 66.28 66.35 66.990
1999Q4 66.43 66.4 66.2 66.29 66.998
2000Q1 66.39 66.37 66.18 66.27 67.323
2000Q2 66.31 66.29 66.1 66.2 67.152
2000Q3 66.35 66.33 66.15 66.25 66.871
2000Q4 66.37 66.35 66.17 66.28 66.860
2001Q1 66.38 66.34 66.11 66.23 67.124
2001Q2 66.42 66.38 66.15 66.27 66.691
2001Q3 66.42 66.38 66.16 66.28 66.573
2001Q4 66.36 66.32 66.11 66.23 66.580
2002Q1 66.34 66.29 66.08 66.19 66.502
2002Q2 66.34 66.29 66.09 66.21 66.510
2002Q3 66.34 66.28 66.09 66.22 66.428
2002Q4 66.28 66.23 66.05 66.17 66.178
2003Q1 66.26 66.21 66.06 66.19 66.135
2003Q2 66.24 66.19 66.06 66.19 66.198
2003Q3 66.21 66.16 66.04 66.18 65.884
2003Q4 66.21 66.15 66.06 66.2 65.769
2004Q1 66.17 66.11 66.01 66.15 65.779
2004Q2 66.15 66.09 66 66.15 65.688
2004Q3 66.14 66.08 66.01 66.16 65.699
2004Q4 66.06 66 65.95 66.1 65.640
2005Q1 65.97 65.91 65.9 66.05 65.579
2005Q2 65.93 65.88 65.89 66.04 65.737
2005Q3 65.88 65.83 65.86 66.02 65.819
2005Q4 65.85 65.8 65.85 66.01 65.693
2006Q1 65.76 65.72 65.76 65.95 65.770
2006Q2 65.74 65.7 65.77 65.96 65.768
2006Q3 65.73 65.7 65.79 65.98 65.822
2006Q4 65.65 65.63 65.74 65.94 65.923
2007Q1 65.61 65.58 65.64 65.86 65.941
2007Q2 65.6 65.58 65.67 65.89 65.569
2007Q3 65.59 65.57 65.68 65.91 65.550
2007Q4 65.51 65.5 65.62 65.85 65.563
2008Q1 65.41 65.4 65.55 65.78 65.731
2008Q2 65.33 65.32 65.49 65.73 65.648
2008Q3 65.32 65.33 65.51 65.76 65.675
2008Q4 65.3 65.31 65.51 65.76 65.517
2009Q1 65.24 65.25 65.46 65.71 65.321
2009Q2 65.16 65.18 65.42 65.68 65.342
2009Q3 65.11 65.14 65.41 65.67 64.996
2009Q4 64.97 65 65.28 65.56 64.523
2010Q1 64.77 64.8 65.09 65.38 64.492
2010Q2 64.61 64.64 64.95 65.25 64.556
2010Q3 64.57 64.61 64.94 65.26 64.305
2010Q4 64.44 64.49 64.84 65.16 64.091
2011Q1 64.24 64.3 64.69 65.03 63.911
2011Q2 64.22 64.29 64.7 65.04 63.883
2011Q3 64.13 64.21 64.65 65 63.823
2011Q4 64.08 64.17 64.63 64.99 63.805
2012Q1 63.96 64.05 64.52 64.89 63.794
2012Q2 63.91 64.01 64.5 64.87 63.766
2012Q3 63.81 63.92 64.44 64.82 63.620
2012Q4 63.76 63.87 64.42 64.8 63.726
2013Q1 63.71 63.85 64.47 64.85 63.467
2013Q2 63.63 63.78 64.42 64.8 63.406
2013Q3 63.53 63.69 64.35 64.72 63.254
2013Q4 63.46 63.63 64.31 64.7 62.892
2014Q1 63.37 63.57 64.27 64.64 63.020
2014Q2 63.2 63.42 64.15 64.5 62.805

Source: Authors' calculations.

Figure 15: Model Residual Varying Cohort Extrapolation

year_quarter Extrapolating last 0 cohorts Extrapolating last 10 cohorts Extrapolating last 15 cohorts Extrapolating last 20 cohorts
1976Q1 -0.30 -0.23 -0.26 0.03
1976Q2 -0.07 -0.01 -0.08 0.21
1976Q3 0.14 0.20 0.11 0.36
1976Q4 0.09 0.12 0.00 0.15
1977Q1 -0.02 -0.01 -0.15 0.01
1977Q2 0.13 0.13 -0.01 0.14
1977Q3 0.04 0.05 -0.06 0.06
1977Q4 0.28 0.29 0.22 0.33
1978Q1 0.06 0.09 -0.02 0.09
1978Q2 0.07 0.11 0.00 0.11
1978Q3 0.09 0.12 0.02 0.12
1978Q4 0.13 0.16 0.07 0.16
1979Q1 0.30 0.32 0.25 0.34
1979Q2 -0.27 -0.25 -0.31 -0.21
1979Q3 -0.04 -0.02 -0.08 -0.01
1979Q4 0.17 0.20 0.14 0.25
1980Q1 0.31 0.33 0.30 0.32
1980Q2 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.18
1980Q3 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03
1980Q4 -0.20 -0.19 -0.18 -0.17
1981Q1 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.02
1981Q2 0.19 0.20 0.18 0.18
1981Q3 -0.30 -0.31 -0.34 -0.38
1981Q4 -0.18 -0.17 -0.21 -0.23
1982Q1 -0.16 -0.15 -0.17 -0.22
1982Q2 0.03 0.04 0.01 -0.02
1982Q3 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.00
1982Q4 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.13
1983Q1 -0.17 -0.19 -0.27 -0.30
1983Q2 -0.13 -0.14 -0.25 -0.29
1983Q3 0.15 0.14 0.02 -0.01
1983Q4 -0.04 -0.07 -0.21 -0.25
1984Q1 -0.30 -0.32 -0.36 -0.45
1984Q2 0.03 0.01 -0.02 -0.09
1984Q3 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.17
1984Q4 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14 -0.18
1985Q1 0.06 0.06 -0.01 -0.03
1985Q2 -0.11 -0.10 -0.16 -0.19
1985Q3 -0.16 -0.15 -0.21 -0.26
1985Q4 -0.10 -0.08 -0.15 -0.22
1986Q1 -0.22 -0.18 -0.22 -0.31
1986Q2 -0.05 -0.02 -0.05 -0.15
1986Q3 0.04 0.06 0.04 -0.06
1986Q4 0.01 0.03 0.01 -0.07
1987Q1 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.00
1987Q2 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.09
1987Q3 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.05
1987Q4 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.08
1988Q1 0.06 0.06 0.03 -0.02
1988Q2 -0.13 -0.13 -0.15 -0.18
1988Q3 -0.03 -0.03 -0.05 -0.08
1988Q4 -0.07 -0.07 -0.09 -0.09
1989Q1 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00
1989Q2 -0.07 -0.07 -0.09 -0.07
1989Q3 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.04
1989Q4 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.11
1990Q1 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.14
1990Q2 -0.19 -0.18 -0.13 -0.05
1990Q3 -0.03 -0.03 0.03 0.08
1990Q4 -0.08 -0.07 0.00 0.03
1991Q1 -0.23 -0.22 -0.16 -0.12
1991Q2 -0.22 -0.22 -0.17 -0.14
1991Q3 -0.33 -0.32 -0.28 -0.30
1991Q4 -0.27 -0.27 -0.27 -0.31
1992Q1 -0.02 -0.02 -0.05 -0.09
1992Q2 0.29 0.29 0.25 0.22
1992Q3 0.36 0.34 0.29 0.23
1992Q4 0.14 0.12 0.07 -0.01
1993Q1 0.13 0.11 0.07 -0.01
1993Q2 0.33 0.31 0.26 0.20
1993Q3 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.19
1993Q4 0.29 0.28 0.26 0.19
1994Q1 0.01 0.01 0.05 -0.03
1994Q2 -0.10 -0.09 -0.07 -0.13
1994Q3 -0.05 -0.04 -0.01 -0.07
1994Q4 0.13 0.14 0.17 0.12
1995Q1 0.22 0.24 0.27 0.25
1995Q2 0.10 0.12 0.16 0.13
1995Q3 0.08 0.11 0.15 0.12
1995Q4 -0.08 -0.06 0.00 -0.03
1996Q1 -0.10 -0.06 0.05 -0.01
1996Q2 0.02 0.05 0.17 0.10
1996Q3 0.13 0.15 0.28 0.20
1996Q4 0.23 0.25 0.38 0.30
1997Q1 0.22 0.25 0.40 0.29
1997Q2 0.16 0.18 0.33 0.23
1997Q3 0.17 0.19 0.34 0.25
1997Q4 -0.02 -0.01 0.14 0.07
1998Q1 0.09 0.11 0.27 0.23
1998Q2 -0.13 -0.11 0.06 0.03
1998Q3 0.01 0.03 0.20 0.18
1998Q4 0.01 0.03 0.20 0.20
1999Q1 0.10 0.13 0.32 0.35
1999Q2 0.03 0.06 0.25 0.32
1999Q3 0.02 0.05 0.24 0.31
1999Q4 0.02 0.06 0.27 0.35
2000Q1 0.35 0.39 0.59 0.70
2000Q2 0.24 0.29 0.48 0.62
2000Q3 -0.03 0.01 0.19 0.32
2000Q4 -0.13 -0.09 0.08 0.23
2001Q1 0.18 0.23 0.47 0.58
2001Q2 -0.21 -0.16 0.07 0.18
2001Q3 -0.06 0.00 0.23 0.33
2001Q4 0.13 0.19 0.41 0.52
2002Q1 0.14 0.22 0.43 0.54
2002Q2 0.19 0.27 0.47 0.57
2002Q3 0.14 0.22 0.40 0.44
2002Q4 0.01 0.09 0.25 0.27
2003Q1 0.04 0.11 0.21 0.20
2003Q2 0.17 0.23 0.30 0.27
2003Q3 -0.10 -0.04 0.01 -0.07
2003Q4 -0.20 -0.16 -0.14 -0.24
2004Q1 -0.18 -0.13 -0.09 -0.21
2004Q2 -0.23 -0.19 -0.16 -0.29
2004Q3 -0.25 -0.20 -0.17 -0.30
2004Q4 -0.26 -0.20 -0.18 -0.30
2005Q1 -0.25 -0.19 -0.21 -0.34
2005Q2 -0.08 -0.03 -0.06 -0.20
2005Q3 0.04 0.08 0.04 -0.10
2005Q4 -0.05 0.00 -0.07 -0.21
2006Q1 -0.06 -0.01 -0.08 -0.22
2006Q2 -0.05 0.00 -0.09 -0.24
2006Q3 -0.04 0.00 -0.11 -0.25
2006Q4 0.09 0.12 -0.01 -0.15
2007Q1 0.11 0.14 0.06 -0.06
2007Q2 -0.26 -0.23 -0.33 -0.47
2007Q3 -0.21 -0.20 -0.31 -0.47
2007Q4 -0.15 -0.14 -0.25 -0.43
2008Q1 0.16 0.17 0.06 -0.12
2008Q2 0.16 0.16 0.03 -0.16
2008Q3 0.23 0.23 0.08 -0.14
2008Q4 0.11 0.11 -0.04 -0.29
2009Q1 0.09 0.10 -0.08 -0.35
2009Q2 0.22 0.22 0.02 -0.29
2009Q3 -0.03 -0.06 -0.29 -0.66
2009Q4 -0.27 -0.32 -0.60 -0.99
2010Q1 -0.04 -0.10 -0.41 -0.87
2010Q2 0.21 0.13 -0.21 -0.69
2010Q3 -0.03 -0.13 -0.48 -0.98
2010Q4 -0.03 -0.14 -0.52 -1.02
2011Q1 -0.06 -0.19 -0.58 -1.08
2011Q2 -0.03 -0.17 -0.58 -1.07
2011Q3 0.02 -0.11 -0.56 -1.04
2011Q4 0.06 -0.07 -0.56 -1.03
2012Q1 0.07 -0.05 -0.55 -1.02
2012Q2 0.17 0.06 -0.48 -0.94
2012Q3 0.14 0.04 -0.55 -1.01
2012Q4 0.27 0.17 -0.43 -0.88
2013Q1 0.06 -0.05 -0.73 -1.16
2013Q2 0.08 -0.05 -0.74 -1.17
2013Q3 0.03 -0.11 -0.82 -1.24
2013Q4 -0.26 -0.41 -1.15 -1.56
2014Q1 -0.05 -0.21 -0.99 -1.36
2014Q2 -0.11 -0.31 -1.11 -1.46

Source: Authors' calculations.

Figure 16: Model Trend Varying Estimation Period

year_quarter Estimation ending in 2005:Q2 Estimation ending in 2007:Q2 Estimation ending in 2009:Q2 Estimation ending in 2010:Q2 Estimation ending in 2014:Q2 (baseline) actual
1976Q1 62.32 62.301 62.222 62.235 62.257 61.657
1976Q2 62.441 62.424 62.343 62.36 62.382 61.902
1976Q3 62.557 62.536 62.449 62.46 62.479 62.165
1976Q4 62.683 62.658 62.566 62.568 62.579 62.154
1977Q1 62.881 62.847 62.739 62.726 62.701 62.253
1977Q2 63.044 63.008 62.9 62.879 62.849 62.601
1977Q3 63.165 63.123 63.01 62.982 62.946 62.660
1977Q4 63.238 63.196 63.083 63.058 63.022 63.027
1978Q1 63.346 63.312 63.197 63.166 63.117 63.003
1978Q2 63.447 63.421 63.306 63.273 63.219 63.371
1978Q3 63.544 63.52 63.398 63.364 63.3 63.489
1978Q4 63.63 63.605 63.476 63.443 63.378 63.738
1979Q1 63.725 63.708 63.584 63.551 63.49 64.012
1979Q2 63.83 63.812 63.683 63.65 63.584 63.702
1979Q3 63.93 63.91 63.773 63.746 63.677 63.946
1979Q4 63.967 63.95 63.799 63.772 63.695 64.054
1980Q1 64.034 64.01 63.864 63.837 63.778 64.176
1980Q2 64.121 64.098 63.947 63.922 63.865 64.052
1980Q3 64.281 64.261 64.102 64.073 64.006 64.002
1980Q4 64.366 64.339 64.18 64.155 64.085 63.966
1981Q1 64.473 64.453 64.296 64.267 64.204 64.259
1981Q2 64.591 64.571 64.41 64.379 64.324 64.403
1981Q3 64.715 64.694 64.524 64.494 64.442 63.977
1981Q4 64.803 64.783 64.605 64.576 64.536 64.093
1982Q1 64.874 64.844 64.675 64.647 64.638 64.107
1982Q2 65.037 65.007 64.84 64.808 64.796 64.364
1982Q3 65.103 65.077 64.904 64.877 64.868 64.401
1982Q4 65.138 65.121 64.94 64.921 64.923 64.457
1983Q1 65.341 65.332 65.132 65.099 65.021 64.131
1983Q2 65.417 65.424 65.216 65.185 65.109 64.264
1983Q3 65.472 65.484 65.278 65.251 65.176 64.623
1983Q4 65.507 65.513 65.309 65.281 65.205 64.493
1984Q1 65.465 65.461 65.28 65.276 65.284 64.454
1984Q2 65.532 65.525 65.343 65.333 65.336 64.847
1984Q3 65.561 65.56 65.381 65.374 65.378 64.841
1984Q4 65.587 65.594 65.414 65.408 65.4 64.907
1985Q1 65.739 65.745 65.549 65.526 65.433 65.207
1985Q2 65.764 65.773 65.573 65.551 65.46 65.155
1985Q3 65.754 65.761 65.56 65.546 65.461 65.171
1985Q4 65.805 65.812 65.618 65.602 65.515 65.392
1986Q1 65.898 65.905 65.718 65.71 65.663 65.434
1986Q2 65.941 65.949 65.765 65.756 65.709 65.627
1986Q3 65.968 65.975 65.8 65.787 65.741 65.757
1986Q4 66.033 66.039 65.868 65.856 65.801 65.768
1987Q1 66.051 66.058 65.903 65.898 65.86 65.856
1987Q2 66.067 66.074 65.927 65.921 65.889 65.947
1987Q3 66.125 66.138 65.992 65.987 65.954 66.020
1987Q4 66.16 66.183 66.037 66.041 66.002 66.134
1988Q1 66.247 66.271 66.118 66.115 66.036 66.221
1988Q2 66.291 66.317 66.161 66.162 66.082 66.179
1988Q3 66.393 66.42 66.263 66.263 66.185 66.403
1988Q4 66.456 66.476 66.337 66.335 66.265 66.540
1989Q1 66.557 66.582 66.45 66.446 66.383 66.805
1989Q2 66.673 66.687 66.559 66.548 66.49 66.870
1989Q3 66.701 66.706 66.582 66.578 66.524 66.931
1989Q4 66.73 66.744 66.621 66.616 66.558 66.984
1990Q1 66.716 66.732 66.612 66.616 66.582 67.028
1990Q2 66.728 66.741 66.624 66.628 66.594 66.823
1990Q3 66.726 66.74 66.626 66.628 66.599 66.744
1990Q4 66.777 66.787 66.668 66.67 66.641 66.660
1991Q1 66.816 66.804 66.699 66.696 66.672 66.541
1991Q2 66.834 66.83 66.73 66.718 66.692 66.536
1991Q3 66.83 66.826 66.727 66.717 66.701 66.340
1991Q4 66.888 66.873 66.778 66.762 66.75 66.353
1992Q1 66.924 66.908 66.8 66.777 66.747 66.564
1992Q2 66.952 66.925 66.825 66.797 66.769 66.809
1992Q3 66.929 66.911 66.812 66.787 66.761 66.824
1992Q4 66.874 66.864 66.762 66.746 66.72 66.539
1993Q1 66.785 66.789 66.686 66.676 66.651 66.414
1993Q2 66.762 66.775 66.673 66.666 66.635 66.569
1993Q3 66.743 66.755 66.651 66.647 66.612 66.548
1993Q4 66.749 66.755 66.65 66.65 66.62 66.577
1994Q1 66.752 66.748 66.658 66.668 66.686 66.382
1994Q2 66.727 66.724 66.649 66.656 66.679 66.298
1994Q3 66.666 66.666 66.592 66.6 66.621 66.330
1994Q4 66.617 66.609 66.533 66.54 66.566 66.525
1995Q1 66.538 66.546 66.475 66.493 66.516 66.526
1995Q2 66.532 66.539 66.468 66.487 66.502 66.441
1995Q3 66.477 66.475 66.408 66.431 66.455 66.400
1995Q4 66.462 66.462 66.397 66.418 66.447 66.292
1996Q1 66.351 66.342 66.287 66.324 66.408 66.295
1996Q2 66.418 66.408 66.355 66.396 66.48 66.486
1996Q3 66.398 66.393 66.344 66.386 66.476 66.631
1996Q4 66.407 66.394 66.348 66.382 66.484 66.758
1997Q1 66.4 66.375 66.333 66.368 66.482 66.795
1997Q2 66.417 66.4 66.356 66.396 66.517 66.860
1997Q3 66.414 66.4 66.356 66.396 66.514 66.904
1997Q4 66.453 66.436 66.386 66.421 66.537 66.810
1998Q1 66.451 66.439 66.394 66.438 66.559 66.997
1998Q2 66.421 66.41 66.363 66.407 66.538 66.880
1998Q3 66.387 66.384 66.346 66.391 66.525 66.952
1998Q4 66.377 66.366 66.329 66.378 66.511 67.004
1999Q1 66.357 66.354 66.311 66.372 66.517 67.100
1999Q2 66.338 66.336 66.285 66.347 66.491 67.007
1999Q3 66.323 66.319 66.264 66.328 66.468 66.990
1999Q4 66.247 66.257 66.19 66.265 66.397 66.998
2000Q1 66.23 66.251 66.179 66.254 66.367 67.323
2000Q2 66.166 66.185 66.105 66.175 66.287 67.152
2000Q3 66.238 66.26 66.175 66.235 66.329 66.871
2000Q4 66.253 66.272 66.192 66.248 66.345 66.860
2001Q1 66.165 66.173 66.116 66.18 66.341 67.124
2001Q2 66.194 66.2 66.144 66.198 66.379 66.691
2001Q3 66.218 66.214 66.148 66.196 66.376 66.573
2001Q4 66.178 66.169 66.098 66.143 66.315 66.580
2002Q1 66.151 66.152 66.086 66.136 66.29 66.502
2002Q2 66.183 66.178 66.101 66.143 66.286 66.510
2002Q3 66.203 66.195 66.113 66.153 66.284 66.428
2002Q4 66.162 66.149 66.065 66.1 66.231 66.178
2003Q1 66.173 66.151 66.072 66.096 66.21 66.135
2003Q2 66.189 66.166 66.072 66.088 66.186 66.198
2003Q3 66.177 66.153 66.06 66.074 66.158 65.884
2003Q4 66.193 66.158 66.067 66.068 66.15 65.769
2004Q1 66.128 66.086 66.007 66.01 66.107 65.779
2004Q2 66.138 66.092 66.009 66.003 66.085 65.688
2004Q3 66.147 66.094 66.021 66.009 66.078 65.699
2004Q4 66.095 66.037 65.958 65.944 66.001 65.640
2005Q1 66.067 66.009 65.929 65.902 65.912 65.579
2005Q2 66.058 66.002 65.92 65.895 65.879 65.737
2005Q3 66.037 65.98 65.894 65.857 65.833 65.819
2005Q4 66.006 65.948 65.869 65.826 65.802 65.693
2006Q1 65.939 65.858 65.79 65.746 65.719 65.770
2006Q2 65.945 65.852 65.795 65.74 65.7 65.768
2006Q3 65.99 65.886 65.825 65.762 65.698 65.822
2006Q4 65.942 65.831 65.774 65.707 65.63 65.923
2007Q1 65.81 65.706 65.674 65.608 65.58 65.941
2007Q2 65.862 65.737 65.694 65.624 65.582 65.569
2007Q3 65.889 65.747 65.712 65.636 65.572 65.550
2007Q4 65.828 65.692 65.656 65.581 65.496 65.563
2008Q1 65.753 65.613 65.589 65.509 65.404 65.731
2008Q2 65.692 65.554 65.528 65.449 65.324 65.648
2008Q3 65.717 65.571 65.543 65.448 65.325 65.675
2008Q4 65.761 65.583 65.556 65.441 65.305 65.517
2009Q1 65.721 65.518 65.515 65.396 65.251 65.321
2009Q2 65.703 65.475 65.477 65.347 65.182 65.342
2009Q3 65.696 65.464 65.454 65.315 65.14 64.996
2009Q4 65.585 65.356 65.337 65.199 65.002 64.523
2010Q1 65.387 65.158 65.132 65.009 64.801 64.492
2010Q2 65.256 65.043 65.008 64.883 64.643 64.556
2010Q3 65.251 65.035 64.999 64.868 64.614 64.305
2010Q4 65.16 64.946 64.901 64.748 64.49 64.091
2011Q1 65.039 64.794 64.742 64.574 64.301 63.911
2011Q2 65.053 64.794 64.748 64.571 64.288 63.883
2011Q3 65.022 64.758 64.714 64.528 64.214 63.823
2011Q4 65.005 64.734 64.689 64.49 64.165 63.805
2012Q1 64.906 64.618 64.578 64.378 64.054 63.794
2012Q2 64.896 64.602 64.555 64.351 64.01 63.766
2012Q3 64.861 64.547 64.499 64.284 63.917 63.620
2012Q4 64.851 64.537 64.491 64.275 63.873 63.726
2013Q1 64.955 64.618 64.559 64.324 63.853 63.467
2013Q2 64.931 64.584 64.532 64.29 63.784 63.406
2013Q3 64.881 64.508 64.464 64.214 63.69 63.254
2013Q4 64.852 64.486 64.435 64.182 63.629 62.892
2014Q1 64.814 64.434 64.391 64.135 63.568 63.020
2014Q2 64.723 64.346 64.303 64.037 63.424 62.805

Source: Authors' calculations.

Figure 17: Monthly Flows Into the Labor Force. Panel A.

year_month Unemployment Rate Not in labor force-->Employed Transition Rate fitted_line
1990M2 5.3 5.13 2.52
1990M3 5.2 5.18 2.56
1990M4 5.4 5.02 2.41
1990M5 5.4 4.95 2.38
1990M6 5.2 4.75 2.2
1990M7 5.5 5.04 2.47
1990M8 5.7 4.68 2.62
1990M9 5.9 4.71 2.47
1990M10 5.9 4.78 2.54
1990M11 6.2 4.86 2.62
1990M12 6.3 4.65 2.66
1991M1 6.4 4.45 2.66
1991M2 6.6 4.46 2.68
1991M3 6.8 4.65 2.77
1991M4 6.7 4.64 2.66
1991M5 6.9 4.29 2.8
1991M6 6.9 4.65 2.85
1991M7 6.8 4.49 2.56
1991M8 6.9 4.44 2.74
1991M9 6.9 4.7 2.94
1991M10 7 4.35 2.88
1991M11 7 4.21 2.86
1991M12 7.3 4.11 2.91
1992M1 7.3 4.82 3
1992M2 7.4 4.2 2.63
1992M3 7.4 4.51 3.03
1992M4 7.4 4.4 2.98
1992M5 7.6 4.52 3.21
1992M6 7.8 4.36 3.19
1992M7 7.7 4.58 3.08
1992M8 7.6 4.44 2.91
1992M9 7.6 4.31 3.01
1992M10 7.3 4.36 2.86
1992M11 7.4 4.54 3.08
1992M12 7.4 4.43 3.11
1993M1 7.3 4.41 2.84
1993M2 7.1 4.84 2.9
1993M3 7 4.56 2.78
1993M4 7.1 4.38 2.93
1993M5 7.1 4.98 2.85
1993M6 7 4.36 2.71
1993M7 6.9 4.34 2.79
1993M8 6.8 4.74 2.76
1993M9 6.7 4.43 2.76
1993M10 6.8 4.51 2.89
1993M11 6.6 4.58 2.76
1993M12 6.5 4.7 2.86
1994M1 6.6 4.91 3.16
1994M2 6.6 5 3.11
1994M3 6.5 4.61 3.24
1994M4 6.4 4.72 3.12
1994M5 6.1 4.85 2.95
1994M6 6.1 4.35 3.22
1994M7 6.1 4.64 3.12
1994M8 6 5.01 3.18
1994M9 5.9 4.68 2.94
1994M10 5.8 4.76 3.06
1994M11 5.6 5 2.84
1994M12 5.5 4.98 2.91
1995M1 5.6 4.9 2.88
1995M2 5.4 4.45 2.82
1995M3 5.4 4.64 2.64
1995M4 5.8 4.79 3.26
1995M5 5.6 4.09 2.83
1995M6 5.6 4.85 2.81
1995M7 5.7 4.84 2.98
1995M8 5.7 4.6 2.87
1995M9 5.6 4.97 2.9
1995M10 5.5 4.85 2.88
1995M11 5.6 4.54 2.93
1995M12 5.6 4.17 2.92
1996M1 5.6 4.47 2.83
1996M2 5.5 4.98 2.9
1996M3 5.5 4.67 2.92
1996M4 5.6 4.5 2.91
1996M5 5.6 4.71 2.93
1996M6 5.3 4.81 2.66
1996M7 5.5 4.97 3.09
1996M8 5.1 4.63 2.55
1996M9 5.2 4.73 2.85
1996M10 5.2 4.64 2.81
1996M11 5.4 4.42 2.86
1996M12 5.4 4.13 2.9
1997M1 5.3 4.66 2.77
1997M2 5.2 4.59 2.71
1997M3 5.2 5.16 2.78
1997M4 5.1 4.84 2.64
1997M5 4.9 4.77 2.65
1997M6 5 4.62 2.68
1997M7 4.9 4.65 2.68
1997M8 4.8 4.72 2.76
1997M9 4.9 4.62 2.61
1997M10 4.7 4.66 2.43
1997M11 4.6 5.05 2.46
1997M12 4.7 5.09 2.61
1998M1 4.6 4.83 2.46
1998M2 4.6 4.78 2.57
1998M3 4.7 4.87 2.65
1998M4 4.3 4.9 2.32
1998M5 4.4 4.94 2.41
1998M6 4.5 4.74 2.53
1998M7 4.5 5.03 2.45
1998M8 4.5 5.3 2.4
1998M9 4.6 5.71 2.56
1998M10 4.5 5.07 2.53
1998M11 4.4 5.24 2.51
1998M12 4.4 5.45 2.4
1999M1 4.3 5.37 2.49
1999M2 4.4 5.02 2.5
1999M3 4.2 4.94 2.33
1999M4 4.3 5.48 2.35
1999M5 4.2 5.55 2.19
1999M6 4.3 5.22 2.36
1999M7 4.3 5.3 2.42
1999M8 4.2 5.24 2.27
1999M9 4.2 5.11 2.48
1999M10 4.1 5.32 2.23
1999M11 4.1 5.17 2.46
1999M12 4 5.2 2.4
2000M1 4 5.3 2.38
2000M2 4.1 5.28 2.36
2000M3 4 5.2 2.23
2000M4 3.8 5.22 2.22
2000M5 4 4.72 2.34
2000M6 4 5.25 2.31
2000M7 4 4.7 2.15
2000M8 4.1 5.18 2.27
2000M9 3.9 5.37 2.09
2000M10 3.9 5.24 2.13
2000M11 3.9 5.43 2.26
2000M12 3.9 5.35 2.11
2001M1 4.2 5.65 2.36
2001M2 4.2 5.5 2.25
2001M3 4.3 5.47 2.31
2001M4 4.4 5.12 2.38
2001M5 4.3 5.19 2.29
2001M6 4.5 5.13 2.37
2001M7 4.6 5.6 2.33
2001M8 4.9 5.13 2.61
2001M9 5 5.73 2.58
2001M10 5.3 4.78 2.78
2001M11 5.5 4.92 2.68
2001M12 5.7 4.89 2.84
2002M1 5.7 4.95 2.35
2002M2 5.7 5.2 2.78
2002M3 5.7 4.68 2.82
2002M4 5.9 5.04 2.76
2002M5 5.8 5.34 2.67
2002M6 5.8 5.22 2.46
2002M7 5.8 4.92 2.8
2002M8 5.7 5.12 2.55
2002M9 5.7 4.97 2.68
2002M10 5.7 4.98 2.55
2002M11 5.9 4.97 2.59
2002M12 6 4.7 2.66
2003M1 5.8 5.31 2.66
2003M2 5.9 4.91 2.66
2003M3 5.9 4.91 2.71
2003M4 6 4.91 2.87
2003M5 6.1 4.71 2.77
2003M6 6.3 5.1 3.07
2003M7 6.2 4.73 2.67
2003M8 6.1 4.96 2.64
2003M9 6.1 5.02 2.72
2003M10 6 5.06 2.83
2003M11 5.8 5.17 2.61
2003M12 5.7 4.77 2.58
2004M1 5.7 5 2.72
2004M2 5.6 4.72 2.54
2004M3 5.8 4.91 2.96
2004M4 5.6 4.85 2.51
2004M5 5.6 4.91 2.69
2004M6 5.6 4.79 2.76
2004M7 5.5 5.17 2.64
2004M8 5.4 4.91 2.58
2004M9 5.4 4.75 2.67
2004M10 5.5 5.16 2.73
2004M11 5.4 5.09 2.61
2004M12 5.4 4.9 2.65
2005M1 5.3 5.06 2.32
2005M2 5.4 4.9 2.65
2005M3 5.2 4.89 2.52
2005M4 5.2 5.26 2.59
2005M5 5.1 5.17 2.57
2005M6 5 4.93 2.4
2005M7 5 5.31 2.41
2005M8 4.9 5.03 2.59
2005M9 5 5.03 2.55
2005M10 5 5.07 2.48
2005M11 5 4.72 2.8
2005M12 4.9 5.28 2.51
2006M1 4.7 5.14 2.59
2006M2 4.8 5.11 2.47
2006M3 4.7 5.22 2.38
2006M4 4.7 5.28 2.42
2006M5 4.6 5.34 2.37
2006M6 4.6 5.3 2.57
2006M7 4.7 5.03 2.56
2006M8 4.7 5.31 2.53
2006M9 4.5 5.09 2.24
2006M10 4.4 5.37 2.21
2006M11 4.5 5.46 2.22
2006M12 4.4 5.55 2.25
2007M1 4.6 5.37 2.47
2007M2 4.5 5.23 2.34
2007M3 4.4 5.17 2.3
2007M4 4.5 4.64 2.16
2007M5 4.4 5.04 2.21
2007M6 4.6 5.21 2.23
2007M7 4.7 4.77 2.28
2007M8 4.6 4.94 2.2
2007M9 4.7 5.11 2.27
2007M10 4.7 4.84 2.25
2007M11 4.7 5.19 2.4
2007M12 5 4.65 2.5
2008M1 5 5.03 2.35
2008M2 4.9 4.65 2.32
2008M3 5.1 4.85 2.54
2008M4 5 4.68 2.42
2008M5 5.4 4.69 2.84
2008M6 5.6 4.77 2.53
2008M7 5.8 4.72 2.72
2008M8 6.1 4.5 2.76
2008M9 6.1 4.55 2.88
2008M10 6.5 4.42 3.04
2008M11 6.8 4.38 2.67
2008M12 7.3 4.3 3.14
2009M1 7.8 4.54 3.12
2009M2 8.3 4.4 3.22
2009M3 8.7 4.1 3.2
2009M4 9 4.44 3.51
2009M5 9.4 4.22 3.51
2009M6 9.5 4.07 3.48
2009M7 9.5 4.16 3.43
2009M8 9.6 4.22 3.59
2009M9 9.8 3.86 3.4
2009M10 10 4.08 3.55
2009M11 9.9 4 3.53
2009M12 9.9 3.9 3.36
2010M1 9.7 4.46 3.64
2010M2 9.8 4.28 3.61
2010M3 9.9 4.25 3.88
2010M4 9.9 4.22 4.01
2010M5 9.6 4.12 3.49
2010M6 9.4 3.93 3.44
2010M7 9.5 4.09 3.69
2010M8 9.5 4.32 3.62
2010M9 9.5 4.03 3.56
2010M10 9.5 4.04 3.6
2010M11 9.8 4.29 3.76
2010M12 9.4 4.18 3.32
2011M1 9.1 4.28 3.42
2011M2 9 4.22 3.49
2011M3 9 4.07 3.4
2011M4 9.1 4.12 3.54
2011M5 9 4.21 3.39
2011M6 9.1 3.86 3.68
2011M7 9 4.32 3.51
2011M8 9 4.06 3.58
2011M9 9 4.34 3.57
2011M10 8.8 4.13 3.19
2011M11 8.6 4.28 3.21
2011M12 8.5 4.1 3.33
2012M1 8.2 4.05 3.31
2012M2 8.3 4.02 3.49
2012M3 8.2 4.01 3.29
2012M4 8.2 4.02 3.24
2012M5 8.2 4.17 3.43
2012M6 8.2 4.11 3.29
2012M7 8.2 4.15 3.22
2012M8 8.1 4.3 3.18
2012M9 7.8 4.18 3.26
2012M10 7.8 4.15 3.53
2012M11 7.8 4.16 3.29
2012M12 7.9 4.18 3.27
2013M1 7.9 4.06 3.14
2013M2 7.7 4.21 3.17
2013M3 7.5 4.25 2.97
2013M4 7.5 4.36 2.93
2013M5 7.5 4.21 3.03
2013M6 7.5 4.36 2.99
2013M7 7.3 4.19 2.98
2013M8 7.2 4.12 2.94
2013M9 7.2 4.16 2.87
2013M10 7.2 4.06 2.72
2013M11 7 4.03 2.91
2013M12 6.7 3.98 2.75
2014M1 6.6 4.77 2.81
2014M2 6.7 4.25 2.77
2014M3 6.7 4.5 2.95
2014M4 6.3 3.95 2.48
2014M5 6.3 4.34 2.7
2014M6 6.1 4.38 2.48
2014M7 6.2 4.33 2.74

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Note: Each dot in the charts represents a monthly observation.

Figure 17: Monthly Flows Into the Labor Force. Panel B.

year_month Unemployment Rate Not in labor force-->unemployed transition rate fitted_line
1990M2 5.3 2.52 2.6
1990M3 5.2 2.56 2.58
1990M4 5.4 2.41 2.62
1990M5 5.4 2.38 2.62
1990M6 5.2 2.2 2.58
1990M7 5.5 2.47 2.64
1990M8 5.7 2.62 2.69
1990M9 5.9 2.47 2.73
1990M10 5.9 2.54 2.73
1990M11 6.2 2.62 2.8
1990M12 6.3 2.66 2.82
1991M1 6.4 2.66 2.84
1991M2 6.6 2.68 2.89
1991M3 6.8 2.77 2.93
1991M4 6.7 2.66 2.91
1991M5 6.9 2.8 2.95
1991M6 6.9 2.85 2.95
1991M7 6.8 2.56 2.93
1991M8 6.9 2.74 2.95
1991M9 6.9 2.94 2.95
1991M10 7 2.88 2.98
1991M11 7 2.86 2.98
1991M12 7.3 2.91 3.04
1992M1 7.3 3 3.04
1992M2 7.4 2.63 3.06
1992M3 7.4 3.03 3.06
1992M4 7.4 2.98 3.06
1992M5 7.6 3.21 3.11
1992M6 7.8 3.19 3.15
1992M7 7.7 3.08 3.13
1992M8 7.6 2.91 3.11
1992M9 7.6 3.01 3.11
1992M10 7.3 2.86 3.04
1992M11 7.4 3.08 3.06
1992M12 7.4 3.11 3.06
1993M1 7.3 2.84 3.04
1993M2 7.1 2.9 3
1993M3 7 2.78 2.98
1993M4 7.1 2.93 3
1993M5 7.1 2.85 3
1993M6 7 2.71 2.98
1993M7 6.9 2.79 2.95
1993M8 6.8 2.76 2.93
1993M9 6.7 2.76 2.91
1993M10 6.8 2.89 2.93
1993M11 6.6 2.76 2.89
1993M12 6.5 2.86 2.87
1994M1 6.6 3.16 2.89
1994M2 6.6 3.11 2.89
1994M3 6.5 3.24 2.87
1994M4 6.4 3.12 2.84
1994M5 6.1 2.95 2.78
1994M6 6.1 3.22 2.78
1994M7 6.1 3.12 2.78
1994M8 6 3.18 2.75
1994M9 5.9 2.94 2.73
1994M10 5.8 3.06 2.71
1994M11 5.6 2.84 2.67
1994M12 5.5 2.91 2.64
1995M1 5.6 2.88 2.67
1995M2 5.4 2.82 2.62
1995M3 5.4 2.64 2.62
1995M4 5.8 3.26 2.71
1995M5 5.6 2.83 2.67
1995M6 5.6 2.81 2.67
1995M7 5.7 2.98 2.69
1995M8 5.7 2.87 2.69
1995M9 5.6 2.9 2.67
1995M10 5.5 2.88 2.64
1995M11 5.6 2.93 2.67
1995M12 5.6 2.92 2.67
1996M1 5.6 2.83 2.67
1996M2 5.5 2.9 2.64
1996M3 5.5 2.92 2.64
1996M4 5.6 2.91 2.67
1996M5 5.6 2.93 2.67
1996M6 5.3 2.66 2.6
1996M7 5.5 3.09 2.64
1996M8 5.1 2.55 2.56
1996M9 5.2 2.85 2.58
1996M10 5.2 2.81 2.58
1996M11 5.4 2.86 2.62
1996M12 5.4 2.9 2.62
1997M1 5.3 2.77 2.6
1997M2 5.2 2.71 2.58
1997M3 5.2 2.78 2.58
1997M4 5.1 2.64 2.56
1997M5 4.9 2.65 2.51
1997M6 5 2.68 2.53
1997M7 4.9 2.68 2.51
1997M8 4.8 2.76 2.49
1997M9 4.9 2.61 2.51
1997M10 4.7 2.43 2.47
1997M11 4.6 2.46 2.44
1997M12 4.7 2.61 2.47
1998M1 4.6 2.46 2.44
1998M2 4.6 2.57 2.44
1998M3 4.7 2.65 2.47
1998M4 4.3 2.32 2.38
1998M5 4.4 2.41 2.4
1998M6 4.5 2.53 2.42
1998M7 4.5 2.45 2.42
1998M8 4.5 2.4 2.42
1998M9 4.6 2.56 2.44
1998M10 4.5 2.53 2.42
1998M11 4.4 2.51 2.4
1998M12 4.4 2.4 2.4
1999M1 4.3 2.49 2.38
1999M2 4.4 2.5 2.4
1999M3 4.2 2.33 2.36
1999M4 4.3 2.35 2.38
1999M5 4.2 2.19 2.36
1999M6 4.3 2.36 2.38
1999M7 4.3 2.42 2.38
1999M8 4.2 2.27 2.36
1999M9 4.2 2.48 2.36
1999M10 4.1 2.23 2.33
1999M11 4.1 2.46 2.33
1999M12 4 2.4 2.31
2000M1 4 2.38 2.31
2000M2 4.1 2.36 2.33
2000M3 4 2.23 2.31
2000M4 3.8 2.22 2.27
2000M5 4 2.34 2.31
2000M6 4 2.31 2.31
2000M7 4 2.15 2.31
2000M8 4.1 2.27 2.33
2000M9 3.9 2.09 2.29
2000M10 3.9 2.13 2.29
2000M11 3.9 2.26 2.29
2000M12 3.9 2.11 2.29
2001M1 4.2 2.36 2.36
2001M2 4.2 2.25 2.36
2001M3 4.3 2.31 2.38
2001M4 4.4 2.38 2.4
2001M5 4.3 2.29 2.38
2001M6 4.5 2.37 2.42
2001M7 4.6 2.33 2.44
2001M8 4.9 2.61 2.51
2001M9 5 2.58 2.53
2001M10 5.3 2.78 2.6
2001M11 5.5 2.68 2.64
2001M12 5.7 2.84 2.69
2002M1 5.7 2.35 2.69
2002M2 5.7 2.78 2.69
2002M3 5.7 2.82 2.69
2002M4 5.9 2.76 2.73
2002M5 5.8 2.67 2.71
2002M6 5.8 2.46 2.71
2002M7 5.8 2.8 2.71
2002M8 5.7 2.55 2.69
2002M9 5.7 2.68 2.69
2002M10 5.7 2.55 2.69
2002M11 5.9 2.59 2.73
2002M12 6 2.66 2.75
2003M1 5.8 2.66 2.71
2003M2 5.9 2.66 2.73
2003M3 5.9 2.71 2.73
2003M4 6 2.87 2.75
2003M5 6.1 2.77 2.78
2003M6 6.3 3.07 2.82
2003M7 6.2 2.67 2.8
2003M8 6.1 2.64 2.78
2003M9 6.1 2.72 2.78
2003M10 6 2.83 2.75
2003M11 5.8 2.61 2.71
2003M12 5.7 2.58 2.69
2004M1 5.7 2.72 2.69
2004M2 5.6 2.54 2.67
2004M3 5.8 2.96 2.71
2004M4 5.6 2.51 2.67
2004M5 5.6 2.69 2.67
2004M6 5.6 2.76 2.67
2004M7 5.5 2.64 2.64
2004M8 5.4 2.58 2.62
2004M9 5.4 2.67 2.62
2004M10 5.5 2.73 2.64
2004M11 5.4 2.61 2.62
2004M12 5.4 2.65 2.62
2005M1 5.3 2.32 2.6
2005M2 5.4 2.65 2.62
2005M3 5.2 2.52 2.58
2005M4 5.2 2.59 2.58
2005M5 5.1 2.57 2.56
2005M6 5 2.4 2.53
2005M7 5 2.41 2.53
2005M8 4.9 2.59 2.51
2005M9 5 2.55 2.53
2005M10 5 2.48 2.53
2005M11 5 2.8 2.53
2005M12 4.9 2.51 2.51
2006M1 4.7 2.59 2.47
2006M2 4.8 2.47 2.49
2006M3 4.7 2.38 2.47
2006M4 4.7 2.42 2.47
2006M5 4.6 2.37 2.44
2006M6 4.6 2.57 2.44
2006M7 4.7 2.56 2.47
2006M8 4.7 2.53 2.47
2006M9 4.5 2.24 2.42
2006M10 4.4 2.21 2.4
2006M11 4.5 2.22 2.42
2006M12 4.4 2.25 2.4
2007M1 4.6 2.47 2.44
2007M2 4.5 2.34 2.42
2007M3 4.4 2.3 2.4
2007M4 4.5 2.16 2.42
2007M5 4.4 2.21 2.4
2007M6 4.6 2.23 2.44
2007M7 4.7 2.28 2.47
2007M8 4.6 2.2 2.44
2007M9 4.7 2.27 2.47
2007M10 4.7 2.25 2.47
2007M11 4.7 2.4 2.47
2007M12 5 2.5 2.53
2008M1 5 2.35 2.53
2008M2 4.9 2.32 2.51
2008M3 5.1 2.54 2.56
2008M4 5 2.42 2.53
2008M5 5.4 2.84 2.62
2008M6 5.6 2.53 2.67
2008M7 5.8 2.72 2.71
2008M8 6.1 2.76 2.78
2008M9 6.1 2.88 2.78
2008M10 6.5 3.04 2.87
2008M11 6.8 2.67 2.93
2008M12 7.3 3.14 3.04
2009M1 7.8 3.12 3.15
2009M2 8.3 3.22 3.26
2009M3 8.7 3.2 3.35
2009M4 9 3.51 3.42
2009M5 9.4 3.51 3.51
2009M6 9.5 3.48 3.53
2009M7 9.5 3.43 3.53
2009M8 9.6 3.59 3.55
2009M9 9.8 3.4 3.6
2009M10 10 3.55 3.64
2009M11 9.9 3.53 3.62
2009M12 9.9 3.36 3.62
2010M1 9.7 3.64 3.57
2010M2 9.8 3.61 3.6
2010M3 9.9 3.88 3.62
2010M4 9.9 4.01 3.62
2010M5 9.6 3.49 3.55
2010M6 9.4 3.44 3.51
2010M7 9.5 3.69 3.53
2010M8 9.5 3.62 3.53
2010M9 9.5 3.56 3.53
2010M10 9.5 3.6 3.53
2010M11 9.8 3.76 3.6
2010M12 9.4 3.32 3.51
2011M1 9.1 3.42 3.44
2011M2 9 3.49 3.42
2011M3 9 3.4 3.42
2011M4 9.1 3.54 3.44
2011M5 9 3.39 3.42
2011M6 9.1 3.68 3.44
2011M7 9 3.51 3.42
2011M8 9 3.58 3.42
2011M9 9 3.57 3.42
2011M10 8.8 3.19 3.38
2011M11 8.6 3.21 3.33
2011M12 8.5 3.33 3.31
2012M1 8.2 3.31 3.24
2012M2 8.3 3.49 3.26
2012M3 8.2 3.29 3.24
2012M4 8.2 3.24 3.24
2012M5 8.2 3.43 3.24
2012M6 8.2 3.29 3.24
2012M7 8.2 3.22 3.24
2012M8 8.1 3.18 3.22
2012M9 7.8 3.26 3.15
2012M10 7.8 3.53 3.15
2012M11 7.8 3.29 3.15
2012M12 7.9 3.27 3.18
2013M1 7.9 3.14 3.18
2013M2 7.7 3.17 3.13
2013M3 7.5 2.97 3.09
2013M4 7.5 2.93 3.09
2013M5 7.5 3.03 3.09
2013M6 7.5 2.99 3.09
2013M7 7.3 2.98 3.04
2013M8 7.2 2.94 3.02
2013M9 7.2 2.87 3.02
2013M10 7.2 2.72 3.02
2013M11 7 2.91 2.98
2013M12 6.7 2.75 2.91
2014M1 6.6 2.81 2.89
2014M2 6.7 2.77 2.91
2014M3 6.7 2.95 2.91
2014M4 6.3 2.48 2.82
2014M5 6.3 2.7 2.82
2014M6 6.1 2.48 2.78
2014M7 6.2 2.74 2.8

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Note: Each dot in the charts represents a monthly observation.

Figure 17: Monthly Flows Into the Labor Force. Panel C.

year_month Unemployment Rate Not in labor force-->in labor force transition rate fitted_line
1990M2 5.3 7.65 7.51
1990M3 5.2 7.74 7.51
1990M4 5.4 7.43 7.51
1990M5 5.4 7.33 7.51
1990M6 5.2 6.95 7.51
1990M7 5.5 7.51 7.51
1990M8 5.7 7.3 7.51
1990M9 5.9 7.17 7.51
1990M10 5.9 7.32 7.51
1990M11 6.2 7.49 7.51
1990M12 6.3 7.31 7.51
1991M1 6.4 7.11 7.51
1991M2 6.6 7.14 7.51
1991M3 6.8 7.42 7.51
1991M4 6.7 7.31 7.51
1991M5 6.9 7.09 7.52
1991M6 6.9 7.5 7.52
1991M7 6.8 7.06 7.51
1991M8 6.9 7.18 7.52
1991M9 6.9 7.64 7.52
1991M10 7 7.23 7.52
1991M11 7 7.06 7.52
1991M12 7.3 7.01 7.52
1992M1 7.3 7.82 7.52
1992M2 7.4 6.83 7.52
1992M3 7.4 7.54 7.52
1992M4 7.4 7.38 7.52
1992M5 7.6 7.74 7.52
1992M6 7.8 7.55 7.52
1992M7 7.7 7.66 7.52
1992M8 7.6 7.35 7.52
1992M9 7.6 7.31 7.52
1992M10 7.3 7.22 7.52
1992M11 7.4 7.62 7.52
1992M12 7.4 7.54 7.52
1993M1 7.3 7.25 7.52
1993M2 7.1 7.74 7.52
1993M3 7 7.35 7.52
1993M4 7.1 7.31 7.52
1993M5 7.1 7.83 7.52
1993M6 7 7.08 7.52
1993M7 6.9 7.12 7.52
1993M8 6.8 7.5 7.51
1993M9 6.7 7.19 7.51
1993M10 6.8 7.41 7.51
1993M11 6.6 7.34 7.51
1993M12 6.5 7.57 7.51
1994M1 6.6 8.07 7.51
1994M2 6.6 8.11 7.51
1994M3 6.5 7.86 7.51
1994M4 6.4 7.85 7.51
1994M5 6.1 7.8 7.51
1994M6 6.1 7.57 7.51
1994M7 6.1 7.76 7.51
1994M8 6 8.19 7.51
1994M9 5.9 7.62 7.51
1994M10 5.8 7.81 7.51
1994M11 5.6 7.83 7.51
1994M12 5.5 7.88 7.51
1995M1 5.6 7.78 7.51
1995M2 5.4 7.28 7.51
1995M3 5.4 7.28 7.51
1995M4 5.8 8.05 7.51
1995M5 5.6 6.92 7.51
1995M6 5.6 7.66 7.51
1995M7 5.7 7.82 7.51
1995M8 5.7 7.47 7.51
1995M9 5.6 7.87 7.51
1995M10 5.5 7.73 7.51
1995M11 5.6 7.47 7.51
1995M12 5.6 7.09 7.51
1996M1 5.6 7.3 7.51
1996M2 5.5 7.88 7.51
1996M3 5.5 7.58 7.51
1996M4 5.6 7.41 7.51
1996M5 5.6 7.64 7.51
1996M6 5.3 7.46 7.51
1996M7 5.5 8.06 7.51
1996M8 5.1 7.18 7.51
1996M9 5.2 7.57 7.51
1996M10 5.2 7.45 7.51
1996M11 5.4 7.27 7.51
1996M12 5.4 7.03 7.51
1997M1 5.3 7.44 7.51
1997M2 5.2 7.3 7.51
1997M3 5.2 7.94 7.51
1997M4 5.1 7.47 7.51
1997M5 4.9 7.42 7.5
1997M6 5 7.3 7.5
1997M7 4.9 7.33 7.5
1997M8 4.8 7.48 7.5
1997M9 4.9 7.23 7.5
1997M10 4.7 7.1 7.5
1997M11 4.6 7.51 7.5
1997M12 4.7 7.71 7.5
1998M1 4.6 7.29 7.5
1998M2 4.6 7.35 7.5
1998M3 4.7 7.53 7.5
1998M4 4.3 7.22 7.5
1998M5 4.4 7.35 7.5
1998M6 4.5 7.27 7.5
1998M7 4.5 7.48 7.5
1998M8 4.5 7.7 7.5
1998M9 4.6 8.28 7.5
1998M10 4.5 7.61 7.5
1998M11 4.4 7.75 7.5
1998M12 4.4 7.85 7.5
1999M1 4.3 7.86 7.5
1999M2 4.4 7.53 7.5
1999M3 4.2 7.28 7.5
1999M4 4.3 7.84 7.5
1999M5 4.2 7.73 7.5
1999M6 4.3 7.57 7.5
1999M7 4.3 7.72 7.5
1999M8 4.2 7.51 7.5
1999M9 4.2 7.59 7.5
1999M10 4.1 7.55 7.5
1999M11 4.1 7.64 7.5
1999M12 4 7.6 7.5
2000M1 4 7.68 7.5
2000M2 4.1 7.64 7.5
2000M3 4 7.43 7.5
2000M4 3.8 7.44 7.5
2000M5 4 7.07 7.5
2000M6 4 7.56 7.5
2000M7 4 6.85 7.5
2000M8 4.1 7.45 7.5
2000M9 3.9 7.47 7.5
2000M10 3.9 7.36 7.5
2000M11 3.9 7.69 7.5
2000M12 3.9 7.47 7.5
2001M1 4.2 8.01 7.5
2001M2 4.2 7.75 7.5
2001M3 4.3 7.78 7.5
2001M4 4.4 7.5 7.5
2001M5 4.3 7.48 7.5
2001M6 4.5 7.5 7.5
2001M7 4.6 7.93 7.5
2001M8 4.9 7.74 7.5
2001M9 5 8.31 7.5
2001M10 5.3 7.56 7.51
2001M11 5.5 7.6 7.51
2001M12 5.7 7.73 7.51
2002M1 5.7 7.3 7.51
2002M2 5.7 7.98 7.51
2002M3 5.7 7.5 7.51
2002M4 5.9 7.8 7.51
2002M5 5.8 8.01 7.51
2002M6 5.8 7.68 7.51
2002M7 5.8 7.72 7.51
2002M8 5.7 7.67 7.51
2002M9 5.7 7.65 7.51
2002M10 5.7 7.52 7.51
2002M11 5.9 7.56 7.51
2002M12 6 7.36 7.51
2003M1 5.8 7.97 7.51
2003M2 5.9 7.57 7.51
2003M3 5.9 7.61 7.51
2003M4 6 7.77 7.51
2003M5 6.1 7.48 7.51
2003M6 6.3 8.16 7.51
2003M7 6.2 7.4 7.51
2003M8 6.1 7.6 7.51
2003M9 6.1 7.74 7.51
2003M10 6 7.89 7.51
2003M11 5.8 7.78 7.51
2003M12 5.7 7.35 7.51
2004M1 5.7 7.71 7.51
2004M2 5.6 7.26 7.51
2004M3 5.8 7.87 7.51
2004M4 5.6 7.36 7.51
2004M5 5.6 7.6 7.51
2004M6 5.6 7.55 7.51
2004M7 5.5 7.8 7.51
2004M8 5.4 7.49 7.51
2004M9 5.4 7.42 7.51
2004M10 5.5 7.89 7.51
2004M11 5.4 7.7 7.51
2004M12 5.4 7.55 7.51
2005M1 5.3 7.38 7.51
2005M2 5.4 7.55 7.51
2005M3 5.2 7.41 7.51
2005M4 5.2 7.85 7.51
2005M5 5.1 7.74 7.51
2005M6 5 7.32 7.5
2005M7 5 7.72 7.5
2005M8 4.9 7.62 7.5
2005M9 5 7.58 7.5
2005M10 5 7.55 7.5
2005M11 5 7.53 7.5
2005M12 4.9 7.79 7.5
2006M1 4.7 7.73 7.5
2006M2 4.8 7.58 7.5
2006M3 4.7 7.6 7.5
2006M4 4.7 7.7 7.5
2006M5 4.6 7.72 7.5
2006M6 4.6 7.87 7.5
2006M7 4.7 7.59 7.5
2006M8 4.7 7.84 7.5
2006M9 4.5 7.33 7.5
2006M10 4.4 7.57 7.5
2006M11 4.5 7.67 7.5
2006M12 4.4 7.81 7.5
2007M1 4.6 7.84 7.5
2007M2 4.5 7.57 7.5
2007M3 4.4 7.48 7.5
2007M4 4.5 6.8 7.5
2007M5 4.4 7.25 7.5
2007M6 4.6 7.44 7.5
2007M7 4.7 7.05 7.5
2007M8 4.6 7.14 7.5
2007M9 4.7 7.38 7.5
2007M10 4.7 7.09 7.5
2007M11 4.7 7.59 7.5
2007M12 5 7.15 7.5
2008M1 5 7.38 7.5
2008M2 4.9 6.97 7.5
2008M3 5.1 7.39 7.51
2008M4 5 7.1 7.5
2008M5 5.4 7.53 7.51
2008M6 5.6 7.3 7.51
2008M7 5.8 7.44 7.51
2008M8 6.1 7.26 7.51
2008M9 6.1 7.43 7.51
2008M10 6.5 7.46 7.51
2008M11 6.8 7.05 7.51
2008M12 7.3 7.44 7.52
2009M1 7.8 7.66 7.52
2009M2 8.3 7.62 7.52
2009M3 8.7 7.3 7.52
2009M4 9 7.95 7.53
2009M5 9.4 7.72 7.53
2009M6 9.5 7.54 7.53
2009M7 9.5 7.59 7.53
2009M8 9.6 7.8 7.53
2009M9 9.8 7.27 7.53
2009M10 10 7.63 7.53
2009M11 9.9 7.53 7.53
2009M12 9.9 7.26 7.53
2010M1 9.7 8.1 7.53
2010M2 9.8 7.89 7.53
2010M3 9.9 8.13 7.53
2010M4 9.9 8.23 7.53
2010M5 9.6 7.6 7.53
2010M6 9.4 7.37 7.53
2010M7 9.5 7.78 7.53
2010M8 9.5 7.94 7.53
2010M9 9.5 7.59 7.53
2010M10 9.5 7.64 7.53
2010M11 9.8 8.05 7.53
2010M12 9.4 7.51 7.53
2011M1 9.1 7.7 7.53
2011M2 9 7.71 7.53
2011M3 9 7.47 7.53
2011M4 9.1 7.67 7.53
2011M5 9 7.6 7.53
2011M6 9.1 7.53 7.53
2011M7 9 7.83 7.53
2011M8 9 7.64 7.53
2011M9 9 7.91 7.53
2011M10 8.8 7.32 7.53
2011M11 8.6 7.5 7.52
2011M12 8.5 7.42 7.52
2012M1 8.2 7.36 7.52
2012M2 8.3 7.51 7.52
2012M3 8.2 7.3 7.52
2012M4 8.2 7.25 7.52
2012M5 8.2 7.61 7.52
2012M6 8.2 7.4 7.52
2012M7 8.2 7.37 7.52
2012M8 8.1 7.49 7.52
2012M9 7.8 7.44 7.52
2012M10 7.8 7.68 7.52
2012M11 7.8 7.45 7.52
2012M12 7.9 7.46 7.52
2013M1 7.9 7.2 7.52
2013M2 7.7 7.38 7.52
2013M3 7.5 7.23 7.52
2013M4 7.5 7.29 7.52
2013M5 7.5 7.23 7.52
2013M6 7.5 7.36 7.52
2013M7 7.3 7.18 7.52
2013M8 7.2 7.06 7.52
2013M9 7.2 7.03 7.52
2013M10 7.2 6.79 7.52
2013M11 7 6.94 7.52
2013M12 6.7 6.73 7.51
2014M1 6.6 7.58 7.51
2014M2 6.7 7.02 7.51
2014M3 6.7 7.45 7.51
2014M4 6.3 6.43 7.51
2014M5 6.3 7.03 7.51
2014M6 6.1 6.85 7.51
2014M7 6.2 7.07 7.51

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Note: Each dot in the charts represents a monthly observation.

Figure 18: Not in the Labor Force by Want-Job Status. Panel A.

year_month Flows: Want a Job-->Labor Force
1998M1 47.64
1998M2 47.62
1998M3 47.86
1998M4 48.27
1998M5 48.37
1998M6 48.55
1998M7 49.04
1998M8 49.15
1998M9 49.51
1998M10 48.91
1998M11 49.21
1998M12 49.25
1999M1 49.58
1999M2 49.91
1999M3 50.04
1999M4 50.05
1999M5 49.94
1999M6 49.92
1999M7 50.02
1999M8 49.8
1999M9 49.95
1999M10 49.99
1999M11 49.51
1999M12 49.67
2000M1 49.61
2000M2 49.36
2000M3 49.4
2000M4 49.37
2000M5 49.42
2000M6 49.06
2000M7 48.77
2000M8 48.55
2000M9 48.32
2000M10 48.57
2000M11 48.33
2000M12 47.86
2001M1 47.22
2001M2 47.1
2001M3 46.93
2001M4 46.74
2001M5 46.46
2001M6 46.43
2001M7 46.42
2001M8 46.54
2001M9 46.18
2001M10 46.33
2001M11 46.57
2001M12 46.59
2002M1 46.67
2002M2 46.81
2002M3 46.76
2002M4 46.7
2002M5 46.99
2002M6 47.01
2002M7 46.66
2002M8 46.37
2002M9 46.49
2002M10 46.01
2002M11 45.65
2002M12 45.88
2003M1 46.11
2003M2 46.6
2003M3 46.63
2003M4 46.89
2003M5 46.65
2003M6 46.51
2003M7 46.79
2003M8 46.95
2003M9 47.1
2003M10 47.23
2003M11 47.43
2003M12 47.26
2004M1 47.11
2004M2 46.55
2004M3 46.32
2004M4 45.69
2004M5 45.76
2004M6 45.72
2004M7 45.85
2004M8 45.87
2004M9 45.93
2004M10 46.05
2004M11 46.3
2004M12 45.98
2005M1 46.13
2005M2 46.36
2005M3 46.19
2005M4 46.51
2005M5 46.5
2005M6 46.6
2005M7 46.53
2005M8 46.81
2005M9 46.45
2005M10 46.2
2005M11 45.77
2005M12 45.84
2006M1 45.41
2006M2 44.74
2006M3 45.01
2006M4 44.85
2006M5 44.92
2006M6 44.92
2006M7 44.61
2006M8 44.17
2006M9 44.16
2006M10 44.11
2006M11 44.06
2006M12 44.11
2007M1 44.19
2007M2 44.69
2007M3 44.75
2007M4 45.02
2007M5 44.72
2007M6 44.31
2007M7 44.14
2007M8 44.15
2007M9 44.44
2007M10 44.49
2007M11 44.88
2007M12 44.89
2008M1 44.95
2008M2 44.95
2008M3 44.76
2008M4 44.54
2008M5 44.42
2008M6 44.5
2008M7 44.99
2008M8 45.3
2008M9 44.95
2008M10 45.05
2008M11 44.71
2008M12 44.86
2009M1 44.94
2009M2 44.89
2009M3 45.25
2009M4 45.26
2009M5 45.16
2009M6 45.26
2009M7 45.22
2009M8 44.88
2009M9 44.87
2009M10 44.09
2009M11 43.95
2009M12 43.66
2010M1 43.77
2010M2 43.53
2010M3 43.6
2010M4 43.7
2010M5 44.22
2010M6 44.39
2010M7 44.27
2010M8 44.34
2010M9 44.46
2010M10 45.19
2010M11 45.5
2010M12 45.63
2011M1 45.57
2011M2 45.77
2011M3 45.59
2011M4 45.26
2011M5 44.5
2011M6 44.54
2011M7 44.13
2011M8 44.17
2011M9 43.87
2011M10 43.76
2011M11 43.83
2011M12 43.79
2012M1 43.45
2012M2 43.81
2012M3 43.61
2012M4 44.02
2012M5 44.41
2012M6 44.28
2012M7 44.53
2012M8 44.45
2012M9 44.42
2012M10 44.59
2012M11 44.38
2012M12 44.32
2013M1 44.43
2013M2 44.17
2013M3 43.99
2013M4 43.6
2013M5 43.5
2013M6 43.48
2013M7 43.1
2013M8 43.1
2013M9 43.22
2013M10 42.61
2013M11 42.23
2013M12 42.08
2014M1 42.16
2014M2 41.97
2014M3 42.44
2014M4 42.72
2014M5 42.63
2014M6 42.82
2014M7 42.89

*The flows in panels A and B exclude those who report themselves as retired or disabled. Twelve-month moving averages calculated by authors from the Current Population Survey Longitudinal Population Database (see Nekarda 2009)

Figure 18: Not in the Labor Force by Want-Job Status. Panel B.

year_month Flows: Do not want a job-->Labor Force
1998M1 26.39
1998M2 26.41
1998M3 26.41
1998M4 26.53
1998M5 26.73
1998M6 26.89
1998M7 26.76
1998M8 26.68
1998M9 26.65
1998M10 26.84
1998M11 26.94
1998M12 26.87
1999M1 26.73
1999M2 26.73
1999M3 26.68
1999M4 26.7
1999M5 26.73
1999M6 26.76
1999M7 26.8
1999M8 26.85
1999M9 26.75
1999M10 26.69
1999M11 26.7
1999M12 26.73
2000M1 26.91
2000M2 27.06
2000M3 27.19
2000M4 27.19
2000M5 27.11
2000M6 27.2
2000M7 27.28
2000M8 27.45
2000M9 27.76
2000M10 27.94
2000M11 28.04
2000M12 28.14
2001M1 28.27
2001M2 28.3
2001M3 28.22
2001M4 28.1
2001M5 28.03
2001M6 27.93
2001M7 28.07
2001M8 27.94
2001M9 27.79
2001M10 27.61
2001M11 27.45
2001M12 27.39
2002M1 27.11
2002M2 27.08
2002M3 27.09
2002M4 27.24
2002M5 27.31
2002M6 27.29
2002M7 27.16
2002M8 27.2
2002M9 27.19
2002M10 27.27
2002M11 27.31
2002M12 27.19
2003M1 27.28
2003M2 27.16
2003M3 27.04
2003M4 26.86
2003M5 26.86
2003M6 26.97
2003M7 26.86
2003M8 26.71
2003M9 26.61
2003M10 26.41
2003M11 26.38
2003M12 26.37
2004M1 26.25
2004M2 26.1
2004M3 26.03
2004M4 26.09
2004M5 26.1
2004M6 26.15
2004M7 26.28
2004M8 26.34
2004M9 26.33
2004M10 26.54
2004M11 26.55
2004M12 26.58
2005M1 26.54
2005M2 26.62
2005M3 26.69
2005M4 26.79
2005M5 26.76
2005M6 26.59
2005M7 26.59
2005M8 26.64
2005M9 26.71
2005M10 26.61
2005M11 26.57
2005M12 26.67
2006M1 26.83
2006M2 26.84
2006M3 26.91
2006M4 26.88
2006M5 26.81
2006M6 26.88
2006M7 26.8
2006M8 26.83
2006M9 26.9
2006M10 27.05
2006M11 27.17
2006M12 27.11
2007M1 27.01
2007M2 26.9
2007M3 26.83
2007M4 26.69
2007M5 26.67
2007M6 26.6
2007M7 26.52
2007M8 26.34
2007M9 26.23
2007M10 26.01
2007M11 25.82
2007M12 25.79
2008M1 25.82
2008M2 25.86
2008M3 25.79
2008M4 25.9
2008M5 26.05
2008M6 26.17
2008M7 26.37
2008M8 26.55
2008M9 26.69
2008M10 26.81
2008M11 26.83
2008M12 26.77
2009M1 26.78
2009M2 26.87
2009M3 26.97
2009M4 26.9
2009M5 26.63
2009M6 26.55
2009M7 26.45
2009M8 26.38
2009M9 26.14
2009M10 25.75
2009M11 25.55
2009M12 25.39
2010M1 25.15
2010M2 25.01
2010M3 24.85
2010M4 24.71
2010M5 24.65
2010M6 24.38
2010M7 24.25
2010M8 24.13
2010M9 24.18
2010M10 24.37
2010M11 24.54
2010M12 24.65
2011M1 24.76
2011M2 24.79
2011M3 24.76
2011M4 24.74
2011M5 24.86
2011M6 25.03
2011M7 25.03
2011M8 25.08
2011M9 25.07
2011M10 25.16
2011M11 25.05
2011M12 25.08
2012M1 25.1
2012M2 25.12
2012M3 25.2
2012M4 25.27
2012M5 25.32
2012M6 25.39
2012M7 25.42
2012M8 25.29
2012M9 25.36
2012M10 25.27
2012M11 25.42
2012M12 25.49
2013M1 25.51
2013M2 25.38
2013M3 25.2
2013M4 24.96
2013M5 24.94
2013M6 24.88
2013M7 25.05
2013M8 25.16
2013M9 25.07
2013M10 25.03
2013M11 24.77
2013M12 24.56
2014M1 24.47
2014M2 24.52
2014M3 24.72
2014M4 24.83
2014M5 24.73
2014M6 24.64
2014M7 24.39

*The flows in panels A and B exclude those who report themselves as retired or disabled. Twelve-month moving averages calculated by authors from the Current Population Survey Longitudinal Population Database (see Nekarda 2009)

Figure 18: Not in the Labor Force by Want-Job Status. Panel C.

year Want a job Do not want a job
1994 39.14 13.37
1995 40.22 13.01
1996 41.78 12.97
1997 40.25 13.23
1998 41 13.13
1999 44.37 13.41
2000 45.65 13.84
2001 45.1 13.25
2002 43.89 12.39
2003 40.69 11.59
2004 37.59 11.32
2005 37.09 11.1
2006 38.76 11.02
2007 39.6 10.34
2008 39.33 10.32
2009 37.84 10.33
2010 33.62 9.5
2011 29.4 8.82
2012 29.51 8.45
2013 32.27 9.3

Source: March Annual Social and Economic Supplement.

Figure 19: Retirement and Disability.

year_month Panel A: Flows: Retired-->Retired Panel B: Flows: Retired-->Labor Force Panel C: Flows: Disabled-->Disabled Panel D: Flows: Disabled-->Labor Force
1998M1 90.78 3.31 68.57 6.99
1998M2 90.72 3.34 68.77 6.91
1998M3 90.82 3.28 68.97 6.92
1998M4 90.85 3.28 69.08 6.94
1998M5 90.92 3.3 69.26 7.04
1998M6 90.89 3.33 69.4 7.23
1998M7 90.86 3.35 69.62 7.33
1998M8 90.87 3.33 69.48 7.53
1998M9 90.84 3.33 69.38 7.74
1998M10 90.91 3.26 69.48 7.82
1998M11 90.98 3.21 69.72 7.7
1998M12 91.06 3.21 69.91 7.65
1999M1 91.03 3.24 69.93 7.56
1999M2 90.98 3.28 70.02 7.54
1999M3 90.81 3.35 69.93 7.43
1999M4 90.71 3.41 70.01 7.39
1999M5 90.66 3.42 69.91 7.34
1999M6 90.6 3.43 70.06 7.14
1999M7 90.56 3.45 70.04 6.98
1999M8 90.47 3.48 70.09 6.84
1999M9 90.45 3.49 70.31 6.71
1999M10 90.36 3.53 70.5 6.62
1999M11 90.31 3.53 70.56 6.6
1999M12 90.25 3.54 70.7 6.52
2000M1 90.3 3.53 70.78 6.54
2000M2 90.35 3.54 70.87 6.47
2000M3 90.39 3.56 70.84 6.59
2000M4 90.41 3.54 70.95 6.69
2000M5 90.37 3.55 71.35 6.71
2000M6 90.39 3.57 71.53 6.76
2000M7 90.46 3.56 71.64 6.78
2000M8 90.51 3.59 71.81 6.81
2000M9 90.51 3.65 71.85 6.76
2000M10 90.52 3.66 71.82 6.76
2000M11 90.49 3.69 71.75 6.86
2000M12 90.52 3.67 71.48 7.02
2001M1 90.52 3.67 71.48 7.13
2001M2 90.54 3.67 71.42 7.16
2001M3 90.68 3.61 71.62 7.07
2001M4 90.77 3.61 71.68 6.97
2001M5 90.78 3.64 71.43 6.96
2001M6 90.77 3.65 71.39 6.82
2001M7 90.7 3.71 71.24 6.85
2001M8 90.68 3.69 71.2 6.79
2001M9 90.64 3.67 71.25 6.74
2001M10 90.66 3.64 71.41 6.67
2001M11 90.66 3.67 71.35 6.67
2001M12 90.57 3.7 71.38 6.7
2002M1 90.58 3.69 71.16 6.71
2002M2 90.47 3.68 70.83 6.78
2002M3 90.4 3.71 70.78 6.74
2002M4 90.34 3.7 70.81 6.67
2002M5 90.32 3.66 71.06 6.58
2002M6 90.27 3.66 71.13 6.65
2002M7 90.25 3.64 71.2 6.66
2002M8 90.24 3.64 71.11 6.7
2002M9 90.25 3.63 71.13 6.73
2002M10 90.24 3.66 70.92 6.84
2002M11 90.27 3.63 70.86 6.82
2002M12 90.35 3.58 70.92 6.73
2003M1 90.29 3.6 71.16 6.62
2003M2 90.33 3.57 71.55 6.6
2003M3 90.29 3.56 71.45 6.74
2003M4 90.29 3.59 71.47 6.82
2003M5 90.33 3.6 71.35 6.95
2003M6 90.37 3.63 71.35 7.02
2003M7 90.47 3.61 71.71 6.94
2003M8 90.51 3.61 72.1 6.93
2003M9 90.57 3.54 72.41 6.87
2003M10 90.65 3.51 72.73 6.75
2003M11 90.71 3.46 73.14 6.69
2003M12 90.72 3.46 73.29 6.72
2004M1 90.76 3.45 73.23 6.8
2004M2 90.8 3.48 73.4 6.77
2004M3 90.89 3.47 73.69 6.7
2004M4 90.99 3.4 73.87 6.77
2004M5 91.07 3.37 74.12 6.83
2004M6 91.15 3.37 74.14 6.88
2004M7 91.21 3.34 73.97 6.98
2004M8 91.3 3.34 73.8 7.03
2004M9 91.34 3.4 73.56 7.14
2004M10 91.32 3.44 73.38 7.19
2004M11 91.35 3.47 73.08 7.25
2004M12 91.37 3.49 72.93 7.27
2005M1 91.38 3.51 73.01 7.19
2005M2 91.33 3.51 72.93 7.15
2005M3 91.22 3.56 73.03 7.09
2005M4 91.12 3.64 72.92 7.04
2005M5 91.07 3.69 72.97 6.81
2005M6 91.02 3.7 73.18 6.58
2005M7 90.92 3.75 73.23 6.55
2005M8 90.79 3.75 73.24 6.54
2005M9 90.69 3.79 73.31 6.43
2005M10 90.64 3.8 73.33 6.4
2005M11 90.59 3.81 73.42 6.32
2005M12 90.5 3.86 73.57 6.35
2006M1 90.46 3.87 73.64 6.42
2006M2 90.53 3.82 73.69 6.41
2006M3 90.6 3.79 73.6 6.43
2006M4 90.62 3.78 73.53 6.41
2006M5 90.66 3.73 73.41 6.53
2006M6 90.71 3.72 73.34 6.7
2006M7 90.73 3.73 73.38 6.74
2006M8 90.76 3.77 73.56 6.75
2006M9 90.81 3.76 73.59 6.82
2006M10 90.83 3.72 73.76 6.83
2006M11 90.78 3.79 73.85 6.86
2006M12 90.77 3.77 73.85 6.83
2007M1 90.77 3.77 73.81 6.83
2007M2 90.7 3.82 73.71 7.02
2007M3 90.63 3.87 73.64 7.09
2007M4 90.65 3.85 73.74 7.08
2007M5 90.56 3.93 73.54 7.01
2007M6 90.53 3.9 73.45 6.87
2007M7 90.56 3.88 73.37 6.85
2007M8 90.6 3.81 73.18 6.83
2007M9 90.59 3.81 73.15 6.72
2007M10 90.6 3.84 73 6.69
2007M11 90.63 3.84 73.11 6.57
2007M12 90.69 3.81 73.14 6.55
2008M1 90.7 3.82 73.27 6.57
2008M2 90.78 3.78 73.33 6.46
2008M3 90.88 3.74 73.24 6.39
2008M4 90.88 3.74 73.3 6.37
2008M5 90.94 3.7 73.54 6.49
2008M6 91 3.7 73.73 6.67
2008M7 91.01 3.72 73.69 6.7
2008M8 91.03 3.73 73.68 6.73
2008M9 91.05 3.72 73.53 6.85
2008M10 91.06 3.72 73.47 6.89
2008M11 91.05 3.71 73.33 7.02
2008M12 90.98 3.74 73.4 6.96
2009M1 91 3.71 73.26 6.99
2009M2 90.97 3.71 73.22 7
2009M3 90.91 3.71 73.33 6.95
2009M4 90.89 3.71 73.22 6.93
2009M5 90.87 3.69 73.27 6.79
2009M6 90.81 3.69 73.31 6.63
2009M7 90.82 3.61 73.46 6.51
2009M8 90.84 3.57 73.54 6.57
2009M9 90.86 3.55 73.61 6.59
2009M10 90.91 3.52 73.95 6.48
2009M11 90.96 3.47 74.19 6.37
2009M12 91.09 3.42 74.37 6.36
2010M1 91.1 3.42 74.77 6.16
2010M2 91.11 3.44 74.92 6.01
2010M3 91.13 3.42 75.06 5.93
2010M4 91.15 3.41 75.3 5.86
2010M5 91.19 3.39 75.35 5.87
2010M6 91.16 3.39 75.4 5.88
2010M7 91.1 3.43 75.34 5.92
2010M8 91.02 3.45 75.35 5.82
2010M9 90.97 3.47 75.39 5.74
2010M10 90.9 3.51 75.19 5.8
2010M11 90.86 3.47 75.02 5.86
2010M12 90.74 3.5 74.82 5.91
2011M1 90.77 3.49 74.42 6
2011M2 90.82 3.44 74.54 6.09
2011M3 90.9 3.39 74.51 6.15
2011M4 90.97 3.4 74.33 6.23
2011M5 90.94 3.42 74.17 6.33
2011M6 90.95 3.46 74.01 6.33
2011M7 90.95 3.46 74.14 6.33
2011M8 90.99 3.45 74.35 6.17
2011M9 91.04 3.39 74.56 6.05
2011M10 91.06 3.35 74.47 6.11
2011M11 91.04 3.41 74.42 6.14
2011M12 91.02 3.45 74.39 6.11
2012M1 90.92 3.47 74.52 6.13
2012M2 90.82 3.55 74.3 6.16
2012M3 90.66 3.65 73.93 6.31
2012M4 90.57 3.67 73.86 6.38
2012M5 90.54 3.69 73.66 6.42
2012M6 90.59 3.66 73.38 6.53
2012M7 90.68 3.64 73.07 6.58
2012M8 90.65 3.7 72.7 6.72
2012M9 90.67 3.74 72.6 6.8
2012M10 90.69 3.74 72.64 6.75
2012M11 90.73 3.74 72.57 6.64
2012M12 90.81 3.71 72.67 6.53
2013M1 90.87 3.72 72.44 6.51
2013M2 90.92 3.7 72.35 6.39
2013M3 91.08 3.65 72.45 6.3
2013M4 91.21 3.6 72.4 6.32
2013M5 91.32 3.55 72.55 6.21
2013M6 91.35 3.52 72.71 6.08
2013M7 91.33 3.53 72.81 6.01
2013M8 91.41 3.5 72.91 6.02
2013M9 91.47 3.45 72.87 5.94
2013M10 91.54 3.41 73.02 5.84
2013M11 91.58 3.37 73.09 5.86
2013M12 91.65 3.3 73.03 5.88
2014M1 91.63 3.26 73.27 5.9
2014M2 91.65 3.2 73.44 5.95
2014M3 91.61 3.21 73.74 5.91
2014M4 91.53 3.25 74.05 5.78
2014M5 91.47 3.33 74.18 5.77
2014M6 91.37 3.38 74.31 5.73
2014M7 91.31 3.42 74.34 5.73

*Twelve-month moving averages calculated by the authors from the Current Population Survey Longitudinal Database (see Nekarda 2009).

Figure 20: Alternative Model Projections for the Labor Force Participation Rate

year_quarter Baseline Extrapolating last 15 cohorts End estimation in 2007:Q2
2007Q1 65.79796 65.878 65.902
2007Q2 65.79934 65.902 65.946
2007Q3 65.74554 65.855 65.878
2007Q4 65.7036 65.813 65.764
2008Q1 65.55982 65.674 65.57
2008Q2 65.48773 65.617 65.462
2008Q3 65.44839 65.591 65.35
2008Q4 65.40284 65.556 65.202
2009Q1 65.22425 65.398 64.931
2009Q2 65.12352 65.318 64.693
2009Q3 65.05327 65.29 64.572
2009Q4 64.84221 65.118 64.349
2010Q1 64.59604 64.907 64.02
2010Q2 64.42957 64.766 63.795
2010Q3 64.43094 64.782 63.704
2010Q4 64.2351 64.614 63.517
2011Q1 64.09893 64.491 63.336
2011Q2 64.04806 64.467 63.273
2011Q3 63.93608 64.385 63.254
2011Q4 63.87935 64.364 63.237
2012Q1 63.84242 64.34 63.234
2012Q2 63.70292 64.245 63.234
2012Q3 63.58433 64.166 63.24
2012Q4 63.55737 64.16 63.276
2013Q1 63.51958 64.192 63.499
2013Q2 63.4539 64.148 63.501
2013Q3 63.36251 64.079 63.516
2013Q4 63.29817 64.043 63.605
2014Q1 63.23228 64.005 63.684
2014Q2 63.11439 63.911 63.717
2014Q3 63.09917 63.907 63.722
2014Q4 63.09863 63.914 63.74
2015Q1 63.08871 63.878 63.695
2015Q2 63.02218 63.826 63.714
2015Q3 62.94369 63.766 63.714
2015Q4 62.86497 63.706 63.728
2016Q1 62.78889 63.649 63.737
2016Q2 62.70118 63.585 63.749
2016Q3 62.6167 63.523 63.733
2016Q4 62.53193 63.46 63.718
2017Q1 62.45146 63.401 63.698
2017Q2 62.38005 63.35 63.662
2017Q3 62.31001 63.3 63.622
2017Q4 62.24522 63.257 63.588
2018Q1 62.18174 63.215 63.556
2018Q2 62.11701 63.171 63.52
2018Q3 62.04757 63.122 63.479
2018Q4 61.97465 63.07 63.434
2019Q1 61.90482 63.021 63.39
2019Q2 61.83771 62.975 63.346
2019Q3 61.7656 62.923 63.299
2019Q4 61.6895 62.869 63.25
2020Q1 61.6161 62.816 63.204
2020Q2 61.54518 62.766 63.16
2020Q3 61.47233 62.714 63.115
2020Q4 61.39862 62.662 63.069
2021Q1 61.32596 62.611 63.023
2021Q2 61.25392 62.561 62.974
2021Q3 61.18611 62.514 62.929
2021Q4 61.12445 62.473 62.888
2022Q1 61.06357 62.432 62.851
2022Q2 61.00316 62.392 62.815
2022Q3 60.93894 62.348 62.775
2022Q4 60.87206 62.302 62.731
2023Q1 60.80433 62.255 62.685
2023Q2 60.73519 62.206 62.636
2023Q3 60.66374 62.155 62.586
2023Q4 60.59131 62.102 62.537
2024Q1 60.51829 62.049 62.488
2024Q2 60.44438 61.996 62.438
2024Q3 60.37676 61.949 62.394
2024Q4 60.31686 61.91 62.358

Source: Authors' calculations.

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