Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2015-013

A Global Trade Model for the Euro Area

Accessible version of figures


Figure 1: Trade variables

Figure 1 shows the month-on-month growth rates of the trade variables included in the analysis: the first panel shows export prices, the second panel shows import prices, the third panel shows export quantities, and the fourth panel shows import quantities.

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Figure 2: Contribution to extra euro area export volumes growth by geographical breakdown

Figure 2 shows in the top panel the extra euro area export shares by geographical areas. The bottom panel shows the three-month-on-three-month (3Mo3M) extra euro area export quantity growth rate (red straight line) and the relative growth rate contributions by geographical areas (colored bars).

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Figure 3: Contribution to extra euro area import volumes growth by geographical breakdown

Figure 3 shows in the top panel the extra euro area import shares by geographical areas. The bottom panel shows the three-month-on-three-month (3Mo3M) extra euro area import quantity growth rate (red straight line) and the relative growth rate contributions by geographical areas (colored bars).

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Figure 4: Contribution to euro area export volumes growth: extra and intra decomposition

Figure 4 shows in the top panel the extra and intra euro area export shares. The bottom panel shows the three-month-on-three-month euro area export quantity growth rate (red straight line) and the extra and intra relative growth rate contributions (colored bars).

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Figure 5: Contribution to euro area import volumes growth: extra and intra decomposition

Figure 5 shows in the top panel the extra and intra euro area import shares. The bottom panel shows the three-month-on-three-month euro area import quantity growth rate (red straight line) and the extra and intra relative growth rate contributions (colored bars).

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Figure 6: Export prices

Figure 6 shows the three-month-on-three-month growth rates forecasts of the extra euro export prices. The dashed, blue line is the aggregated extra euro area forecast. The colored bars are the forecast contributions from different geographical areas. The red straight line is the ex-post realized value. First panel: two-month backcast - Second panel: one-month backcast - Third panel: nowcast.

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Figure 7: Export volumes

Figure 7 shows the three-month-on-three-month growth rates forecasts of the extra euro export quantities. The dashed, blue line is the aggregated extra euro area forecast. The colored bars are the forecast contributions from different geographical areas. The red straight line is the ex-post realized value. First panel: two-month backcast - Second panel: one-month backcast - Third panel: nowcast.

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Figure 8: Import prices

Figure 8 shows the three-month-on-three-month growth rates forecasts of the extra euro import prices. The dashed, blue line is the aggregated extra euro area forecast. The colored bars are the forecast contributions from different geographical areas. The red straight line is the ex-post realized value. First panel: two-month backcast - Second panel: one-month backcast - Third panel: nowcast.

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Figure 9: Import volumes

Figure 9 shows the three-month-on-three-month growth rates forecasts of the extra euro import quantities. The dashed, blue line is the aggregated extra euro area forecast. The colored bars are the forecast contributions from different geographical areas. The red straight line is the ex-post realized value. First panel: two-month backcast - Second panel: one-month backcast - Third panel: nowcast.

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Figure 10: Conditional path for export volumes

Figure 10 shows the simulated extra euro area export quantity paths over the sample November 2007 to April 2013; trade dynamics are conditional on the realized macro values from November 2007 to April 2013 and on the parameters estimated with the data available at the end of December 2007. The four subplots refer to different geographical areas: Left-up BRIC, right-up Far East, left-down Europe, and right-down North America. Values are in three-month-on-three-month growth rates.

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Figure 11: Conditional path for import volumes

Figure 11 shows the simulated extra euro area import quantity paths over the sample November 2007 to April 2013; trade dynamics are conditional on the realized macro values from November 2007 to April 2013 and on the parameters estimated with the data available at the end of December 2007. The four subplots refer to different geographical areas: Left-up BRIC, right-up Far East, left-down Europe, and right-down North America. Values are in three-month-on-three-month growth rates.

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Figure 12: Conditional path for export and import volumes - Rest of the World

Figure 12 shows the simulated extra euro area exports and imports paths over the sample November 2007 to April 2013; trade dynamics are conditional on the realized macro values from November 2007 to April 2013 and on the parameters estimated with the data available at the end of December 2007. The two sub-plots refer to export quantities (up), and import quantities (down) from the Rest of the World. Values are in three-month-on-three-month growth rates.

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Figure 13: Generalized impulse response function for extra euro area export volumes

Figure 13 shows the deviation of the conditional forecasts of extra euro area exports from the baseline, unconditional forecast. The conditional predictions are computed, first by multiplying the unconditional path of the external demand components (industrial production and purchasing manager index series) by 1.05 and then by computing predictions of the extra euro area series conditional on this scenario. A similar computation is done for the geographical breakdown (Europe, North America, BRIC, and Far East). The conditional forecasts for each single area are computed by multiplying by 1.05 the unconditional forecast of the external demand components of each specific area.

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