Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2015-017
Crowding Out Effects of Refinancing on New Purchase Mortgages
Accessible version of figures
Figure 1A: Purchase Applications and Originations
Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data and authors' estimates.
|
Purchase applications |
Purchase applications (estimated) |
Purchase originations |
Purchase originations (estimated) |
2003M01 |
583722 |
583722 |
334991 |
334991 |
2003M02 |
587190 |
587190 |
337319 |
337319 |
2003M03 |
708423 |
708423 |
413158 |
413158 |
2003M04 |
756071 |
756071 |
449414 |
449414 |
2003M05 |
758016 |
758016 |
499684 |
499684 |
2003M06 |
766810 |
766810 |
531360 |
531360 |
2003M07 |
816802 |
816802 |
550684 |
550684 |
2003M08 |
733865 |
733865 |
566566 |
566566 |
2003M09 |
708117 |
708117 |
525490 |
525490 |
2003M10 |
706606 |
706606 |
516745 |
516745 |
2003M11 |
556520 |
556520 |
408900 |
408900 |
2003M12 |
542238 |
542238 |
461981 |
461981 |
2004M01 |
642194 |
642194 |
337530 |
337530 |
2004M02 |
709793 |
709793 |
369992 |
369992 |
2004M03 |
938235 |
938235 |
510085 |
510085 |
2004M04 |
933620 |
933620 |
555456 |
555456 |
2004M05 |
900510 |
900510 |
576668 |
576668 |
2004M06 |
965895 |
965895 |
675316 |
675316 |
2004M07 |
899383 |
899383 |
626248 |
626248 |
2004M08 |
905086 |
905086 |
620096 |
620096 |
2004M09 |
818567 |
818567 |
559509 |
559509 |
2004M10 |
794578 |
794578 |
543615 |
543615 |
2004M11 |
740201 |
740201 |
516546 |
516546 |
2004M12 |
662828 |
662828 |
545875 |
545875 |
2005M01 |
750831 |
750831 |
394911 |
394911 |
2005M02 |
848239 |
848239 |
427402 |
427402 |
2005M03 |
1094192 |
1094192 |
598999 |
598999 |
2005M04 |
1068717 |
1068717 |
615178 |
615178 |
2005M05 |
1106705 |
1106705 |
668462 |
668462 |
2005M06 |
1168463 |
1168463 |
766384 |
766384 |
2005M07 |
1031367 |
1031367 |
696205 |
696205 |
2005M08 |
1154779 |
1154779 |
760201 |
760201 |
2005M09 |
1001431 |
1001431 |
687713 |
687713 |
2005M10 |
936380 |
936380 |
607411 |
607411 |
2005M11 |
861508 |
861508 |
584936 |
584936 |
2005M12 |
737650 |
737650 |
582699 |
582699 |
2006M01 |
813207 |
813207 |
423341 |
423341 |
2006M02 |
851848 |
851848 |
456007 |
456007 |
2006M03 |
1078076 |
1078076 |
627104 |
627104 |
2006M04 |
951225 |
951225 |
560227 |
560227 |
2006M05 |
1061779 |
1061779 |
660787 |
660787 |
2006M06 |
1031592 |
1031592 |
712837 |
712837 |
2006M07 |
896769 |
896769 |
592133 |
592133 |
2006M08 |
982987 |
982987 |
650188 |
650188 |
2006M09 |
812368 |
812368 |
556139 |
556139 |
2006M10 |
832095 |
832095 |
527446 |
527446 |
2006M11 |
736244 |
736244 |
491125 |
491125 |
2006M12 |
607272 |
607272 |
482988 |
482988 |
2007M01 |
699012 |
699012 |
348777 |
348777 |
2007M02 |
682815 |
682815 |
361354 |
361354 |
2007M03 |
800686 |
800686 |
450065 |
450065 |
2007M04 |
706803 |
706803 |
421005 |
421005 |
2007M05 |
739852 |
739852 |
468846 |
468846 |
2007M06 |
688722 |
688722 |
486944 |
486944 |
2007M07 |
652950 |
652950 |
441795 |
441795 |
2007M08 |
664471 |
664471 |
453664 |
453664 |
2007M09 |
470533 |
470533 |
326901 |
326901 |
2007M10 |
512560 |
512560 |
330108 |
330108 |
2007M11 |
420130 |
420130 |
299771 |
299771 |
2007M12 |
327691 |
327691 |
274037 |
274037 |
2008M01 |
438422 |
438422 |
206478 |
206478 |
2008M02 |
445263 |
445263 |
230724 |
230724 |
2008M03 |
487219 |
487219 |
266230 |
266230 |
2008M04 |
503606 |
503606 |
281168 |
281168 |
2008M05 |
480723 |
480723 |
311057 |
311057 |
2008M06 |
458879 |
458879 |
321371 |
321371 |
2008M07 |
461746 |
461746 |
314277 |
314277 |
2008M08 |
407134 |
407134 |
296043 |
296043 |
2008M09 |
398176 |
398176 |
272560 |
272560 |
2008M10 |
332870 |
332870 |
252066 |
252066 |
2008M11 |
264856 |
264856 |
183761 |
183761 |
2008M12 |
255914 |
255914 |
202965 |
202965 |
2009M01 |
296237 |
296237 |
139351 |
139351 |
2009M02 |
309503 |
309503 |
155120 |
155120 |
2009M03 |
380924 |
380924 |
200408 |
200408 |
2009M04 |
400909 |
400909 |
211477 |
211477 |
2009M05 |
379687 |
379687 |
233256 |
233256 |
2009M06 |
414041 |
414041 |
282803 |
282803 |
2009M07 |
405849 |
405849 |
292419 |
292419 |
2009M08 |
390955 |
390955 |
262912 |
262912 |
2009M09 |
391747 |
391747 |
258261 |
258261 |
2009M10 |
374035 |
374035 |
274879 |
274879 |
2009M11 |
263544 |
263544 |
261748 |
261748 |
2009M12 |
241086 |
241086 |
220305 |
220305 |
2010M01 |
274232 |
274232 |
141432 |
141432 |
2010M02 |
329387 |
329387 |
153344 |
153344 |
2010M03 |
448114 |
448114 |
231703 |
231703 |
2010M04 |
461449 |
461449 |
264936 |
264936 |
2010M05 |
348364 |
348364 |
279663 |
279663 |
2010M06 |
323438 |
323438 |
326766 |
326766 |
2010M07 |
298115 |
298115 |
197654 |
197654 |
2010M08 |
305406 |
305406 |
201229 |
201229 |
2010M09 |
279927 |
279927 |
197760 |
197760 |
2010M10 |
261961 |
261961 |
181241 |
181241 |
2010M11 |
244854 |
244854 |
174472 |
174472 |
2010M12 |
213717 |
213717 |
196390 |
196390 |
2011M01 |
253577 |
253577 |
137390 |
137390 |
2011M02 |
277432 |
277432 |
140229 |
140229 |
2011M03 |
379494 |
379494 |
198552 |
198552 |
2011M04 |
333833 |
333833 |
203525 |
203525 |
2011M05 |
349071 |
349071 |
222712 |
222712 |
2011M06 |
356257 |
356257 |
255580 |
255580 |
2011M07 |
319352 |
319352 |
227660 |
227660 |
2011M08 |
344308 |
344308 |
243056 |
243056 |
2011M09 |
291436 |
291436 |
216837 |
216837 |
2011M10 |
279341 |
279341 |
195551 |
195551 |
2011M11 |
260347 |
260347 |
187610 |
187610 |
2011M12 |
222281 |
222281 |
201459 |
201459 |
2012M01 |
290650 |
290650 |
146438 |
146438 |
2012M02 |
330333 |
330333 |
163137 |
163137 |
2012M03 |
395918 |
395918 |
215540 |
215540 |
2012M04 |
389867 |
389867 |
223574 |
223574 |
2012M05 |
406851 |
406851 |
263958 |
263958 |
2012M06 |
375981 |
375981 |
278502 |
278502 |
2012M07 |
369881 |
369881 |
258835 |
258835 |
2012M08 |
370712 |
370712 |
279462 |
279462 |
2012M09 |
309005 |
309005 |
227082 |
227082 |
2012M10 |
341608 |
341608 |
240930 |
240930 |
2012M11 |
284456 |
284456 |
225901 |
225901 |
2012M12 |
230811 |
230811 |
219722 |
219722 |
2013M01 |
326121 |
326121 |
172952 |
172952 |
2013M02 |
347675 |
347675 |
175418 |
175418 |
2013M03 |
414641 |
414641 |
233378 |
233378 |
2013M04 |
455861 |
455861 |
261507 |
261507 |
2013M05 |
459501 |
459501 |
306964 |
306964 |
2013M06 |
414188 |
414188 |
310982 |
310982 |
2013M07 |
424101 |
424101 |
327410 |
327410 |
2013M08 |
378583 |
378583 |
322615 |
322615 |
2013M09 |
323759 |
323759 |
269074 |
269074 |
2013M10 |
|
330416.495781517 |
262781 |
262781 |
2013M11 |
|
258611.000246844 |
229238 |
229238 |
2013M12 |
|
206643.604520746 |
239249 |
239249 |
2014M01 |
|
275200.520183165 |
|
151277.924754867 |
2014M02 |
|
284416.691697093 |
|
151218.104628807 |
2014M03 |
|
333114.743232243 |
|
176528.660028872 |
2014M04 |
|
371655.427851047 |
|
202524.267217695 |
2014M05 |
|
368466.575432412 |
|
235147.621469758 |
2014M06 |
|
339131.296794504 |
|
252811.210675883 |
2014M07 |
|
339683.053648571 |
|
243846.34039687 |
2014M08 |
|
305156.44118071 |
|
232231.917491008 |
2014M09 |
|
291963.210829607 |
|
217318.530620034 |
Return to text
Figure 1B: Refinance Applications and Originations
Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data and authors' estimates.
|
Refinance applications |
Refinance applications (estimated) |
Refinance originations |
Refinance originations (estimated) |
2003M01 |
2061818 |
2061818 |
1205747 |
1205747 |
2003M02 |
1935396 |
1935396 |
1179886 |
1179886 |
2003M03 |
2660231 |
2660231 |
1391326 |
1391326 |
2003M04 |
2198835 |
2198835 |
1595116 |
1595116 |
2003M05 |
2642281 |
2642281 |
1424691 |
1424691 |
2003M06 |
3027102 |
3027102 |
1628068 |
1628068 |
2003M07 |
2478605 |
2478605 |
1877742 |
1877742 |
2003M08 |
1468658 |
1468658 |
1620651 |
1620651 |
2003M09 |
1340031 |
1340031 |
1133530 |
1133530 |
2003M10 |
1384533 |
1384533 |
838327 |
838327 |
2003M11 |
1084148 |
1084148 |
602304 |
602304 |
2003M12 |
1064635 |
1064635 |
627364 |
627364 |
2004M01 |
1406374 |
1406374 |
498658 |
498658 |
2004M02 |
1437339 |
1437339 |
648102 |
648102 |
2004M03 |
2034980 |
2034980 |
888103 |
888103 |
2004M04 |
1517079 |
1517079 |
989964 |
989964 |
2004M05 |
1158842 |
1158842 |
737233 |
737233 |
2004M06 |
1173626 |
1173626 |
600605 |
600605 |
2004M07 |
1149272 |
1149272 |
470549 |
470549 |
2004M08 |
1248028 |
1248028 |
514640 |
514640 |
2004M09 |
1248808 |
1248808 |
503932 |
503932 |
2004M10 |
1263130 |
1263130 |
552629 |
552629 |
2004M11 |
1236880 |
1236880 |
597890 |
597890 |
2004M12 |
1113401 |
1113401 |
588775 |
588775 |
2005M01 |
1257834 |
1257834 |
479279 |
479279 |
2005M02 |
1303581 |
1303581 |
512262 |
512262 |
2005M03 |
1410894 |
1410894 |
650096 |
650096 |
2005M04 |
1264322 |
1264322 |
550596 |
550596 |
2005M05 |
1308012 |
1308012 |
554159 |
554159 |
2005M06 |
1529529 |
1529529 |
616497 |
616497 |
2005M07 |
1353515 |
1353515 |
639308 |
639308 |
2005M08 |
1517781 |
1517781 |
734018 |
734018 |
2005M09 |
1361053 |
1361053 |
623062 |
623062 |
2005M10 |
1316111 |
1316111 |
637480 |
637480 |
2005M11 |
1204397 |
1204397 |
579185 |
579185 |
2005M12 |
1055746 |
1055746 |
530689 |
530689 |
2006M01 |
1240353 |
1240353 |
450720 |
450720 |
2006M02 |
1124302 |
1124302 |
470822 |
470822 |
2006M03 |
1322246 |
1322246 |
557069 |
557069 |
2006M04 |
1127839 |
1127839 |
484486 |
484486 |
2006M05 |
1155489 |
1155489 |
531911 |
531911 |
2006M06 |
1162608 |
1162608 |
508105 |
508105 |
2006M07 |
1041888 |
1041888 |
465856 |
465856 |
2006M08 |
1228498 |
1228498 |
528052 |
528052 |
2006M09 |
1128948 |
1128948 |
489727 |
489727 |
2006M10 |
1243879 |
1243879 |
557421 |
557421 |
2006M11 |
1154120 |
1154120 |
506591 |
506591 |
2006M12 |
975459 |
975459 |
540482 |
540482 |
2007M01 |
1147650 |
1147650 |
472258 |
472258 |
2007M02 |
1006621 |
1006621 |
428871 |
428871 |
2007M03 |
1186660 |
1186660 |
483487 |
483487 |
2007M04 |
1050807 |
1050807 |
474605 |
474605 |
2007M05 |
1066273 |
1066273 |
477200 |
477200 |
2007M06 |
955190 |
955190 |
418796 |
418796 |
2007M07 |
922283 |
922283 |
380655 |
380655 |
2007M08 |
954678 |
954678 |
368962 |
368962 |
2007M09 |
748624 |
748624 |
293341 |
293341 |
2007M10 |
857288 |
857288 |
355001 |
355001 |
2007M11 |
768702 |
768702 |
317040 |
317040 |
2007M12 |
634239 |
634239 |
347659 |
347659 |
2008M01 |
1171649 |
1171649 |
324423 |
324423 |
2008M02 |
987543 |
987543 |
498498 |
498498 |
2008M03 |
857506 |
857506 |
470038 |
470038 |
2008M04 |
746455 |
746455 |
429002 |
429002 |
2008M05 |
623583 |
623583 |
321033 |
321033 |
2008M06 |
481300 |
481300 |
269508 |
269508 |
2008M07 |
487671 |
487671 |
214400 |
214400 |
2008M08 |
403650 |
403650 |
182617 |
182617 |
2008M09 |
529214 |
529214 |
176884 |
176884 |
2008M10 |
439252 |
439252 |
222290 |
222290 |
2008M11 |
415304 |
415304 |
144848 |
144848 |
2008M12 |
1137979 |
1137979 |
237812 |
237812 |
2009M01 |
1408349 |
1408349 |
463241 |
463241 |
2009M02 |
824690 |
824690 |
592968 |
592968 |
2009M03 |
1233879 |
1233879 |
617071 |
617071 |
2009M04 |
1328043 |
1328043 |
618790 |
618790 |
2009M05 |
885326 |
885326 |
649150 |
649150 |
2009M06 |
512784 |
512784 |
627440 |
627440 |
2009M07 |
544479 |
544479 |
463955 |
463955 |
2009M08 |
519538 |
519538 |
336873 |
336873 |
2009M09 |
629970 |
629970 |
306191 |
306191 |
2009M10 |
713958 |
713958 |
339539 |
339539 |
2009M11 |
607910 |
607910 |
363608 |
363608 |
2009M12 |
545228 |
545228 |
393252 |
393252 |
2010M01 |
454165 |
454165 |
313872 |
313872 |
2010M02 |
503469 |
503469 |
260173 |
260173 |
2010M03 |
592371 |
592371 |
319869 |
319869 |
2010M04 |
464267 |
464267 |
288426 |
288426 |
2010M05 |
549379 |
549379 |
239933 |
239933 |
2010M06 |
754666 |
754666 |
297531 |
297531 |
2010M07 |
952850 |
952850 |
366551 |
366551 |
2010M08 |
1131759 |
1131759 |
506854 |
506854 |
2010M09 |
980191 |
980191 |
561342 |
561342 |
2010M10 |
993366 |
993366 |
604452 |
604452 |
2010M11 |
802240 |
802240 |
627236 |
627236 |
2010M12 |
475934 |
475934 |
582364 |
582364 |
2011M01 |
471377 |
471377 |
434675 |
434675 |
2011M02 |
403438 |
403438 |
319783 |
319783 |
2011M03 |
518009 |
518009 |
301109 |
301109 |
2011M04 |
402687 |
402687 |
253096 |
253096 |
2011M05 |
487542 |
487542 |
231018 |
231018 |
2011M06 |
564477 |
564477 |
261855 |
261855 |
2011M07 |
498691 |
498691 |
269957 |
269957 |
2011M08 |
1014035 |
1014035 |
332228 |
332228 |
2011M09 |
884525 |
884525 |
431604 |
431604 |
2011M10 |
816051 |
816051 |
504409 |
504409 |
2011M11 |
691133 |
691133 |
506491 |
506491 |
2011M12 |
668803 |
668803 |
483465 |
483465 |
2012M01 |
888148 |
888148 |
444006 |
444006 |
2012M02 |
914346 |
914346 |
510583 |
510583 |
2012M03 |
844193 |
844193 |
543703 |
543703 |
2012M04 |
790411 |
790411 |
498096 |
498096 |
2012M05 |
914107 |
914107 |
493766 |
493766 |
2012M06 |
1013714 |
1013714 |
496155 |
496155 |
2012M07 |
1060664 |
1060664 |
541451 |
541451 |
2012M08 |
1013614 |
1013614 |
632286 |
632286 |
2012M09 |
907626 |
907626 |
570738 |
570738 |
2012M10 |
1097999 |
1097999 |
682577 |
682577 |
2012M11 |
896458 |
896458 |
617901 |
617901 |
2012M12 |
763190 |
763190 |
638818 |
638818 |
2013M01 |
923964 |
923964 |
637648 |
637648 |
2013M02 |
790576 |
790576 |
584380 |
584380 |
2013M03 |
848708 |
848708 |
591910 |
591910 |
2013M04 |
928786 |
928786 |
573729 |
573729 |
2013M05 |
839366 |
839366 |
556985 |
556985 |
2013M06 |
581268 |
581268 |
489728 |
489728 |
2013M07 |
481207 |
481207 |
447943 |
447943 |
2013M08 |
415462 |
415462 |
342438 |
342438 |
2013M09 |
359723 |
359723 |
254320 |
254320 |
2013M10 |
|
471325.158130548 |
231739 |
231739 |
2013M11 |
|
363591.694378082 |
208695 |
208695 |
2013M12 |
|
285612.956660267 |
211083 |
211083 |
2014M01 |
|
347602.673771305 |
|
198457.505813144 |
2014M02 |
|
319733.149990747 |
|
173342.779420554 |
2014M03 |
|
308806.666602142 |
|
168891.50282222 |
2014M04 |
|
294959.031708691 |
|
169881.84886806 |
2014M05 |
|
300937.258435716 |
|
162347.22992409 |
2014M06 |
|
287282.0208942 |
|
157063.481749918 |
2014M07 |
|
300238.706547521 |
|
155816.263437897 |
2014M08 |
|
289502.107730501 |
|
154495.53930246 |
2014M09 |
|
284669.652230433 |
|
152906.610137216 |
Return to text
Figure 2A: GSE Purchase Originations by Credit Score (Low Credit Scores)
Source: Authors' estimates from Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) and LPS / Black Knight data.
|
<=620 |
621-680 |
681-710 |
2003M01 |
15595 |
52638 |
45136 |
2003M02 |
13984 |
47911 |
41236 |
2003M03 |
13619 |
46580 |
39469 |
2003M04 |
12671 |
45936 |
40645 |
2003M05 |
13282 |
47417 |
41234 |
2003M06 |
12230 |
45160 |
39998 |
2003M07 |
12647 |
48171 |
42803 |
2003M08 |
12566 |
48922 |
43396 |
2003M09 |
13326 |
50891 |
44622 |
2003M10 |
13236 |
53045 |
45931 |
2003M11 |
11498 |
46392 |
40407 |
2003M12 |
11664 |
49949 |
43959 |
2004M01 |
11693 |
50660 |
43769 |
2004M02 |
11339 |
51220 |
45566 |
2004M03 |
11999 |
54324 |
47598 |
2004M04 |
11792 |
54228 |
48769 |
2004M05 |
11547 |
49932 |
43897 |
2004M06 |
12664 |
54180 |
47189 |
2004M07 |
12883 |
54662 |
46934 |
2004M08 |
12938 |
52892 |
45966 |
2004M09 |
12855 |
51833 |
45408 |
2004M10 |
12839 |
52571 |
44735 |
2004M11 |
13074 |
53169 |
45055 |
2004M12 |
12507 |
54211 |
45933 |
2005M01 |
12234 |
53717 |
46834 |
2005M02 |
12410 |
52664 |
45229 |
2005M03 |
12708 |
54134 |
47884 |
2005M04 |
12375 |
55132 |
49691 |
2005M05 |
11838 |
56393 |
51613 |
2005M06 |
12244 |
58248 |
53593 |
2005M07 |
11357 |
54409 |
50886 |
2005M08 |
11463 |
56900 |
53936 |
2005M09 |
11590 |
55273 |
54008 |
2005M10 |
11140 |
51831 |
49464 |
2005M11 |
11892 |
54204 |
53297 |
2005M12 |
11048 |
56671 |
53850 |
2006M01 |
13285 |
54921 |
52294 |
2006M02 |
12346 |
53213 |
49952 |
2006M03 |
13044 |
54697 |
51551 |
2006M04 |
11637 |
49168 |
45771 |
2006M05 |
12808 |
50799 |
47739 |
2006M06 |
12332 |
50683 |
47192 |
2006M07 |
11249 |
45449 |
41745 |
2006M08 |
12620 |
49262 |
44955 |
2006M09 |
12404 |
46444 |
43505 |
2006M10 |
11510 |
45867 |
43213 |
2006M11 |
10790 |
45322 |
43306 |
2006M12 |
10909 |
45798 |
43275 |
2007M01 |
12226 |
44983 |
41375 |
2007M02 |
12566 |
46490 |
41462 |
2007M03 |
14143 |
47235 |
40071 |
2007M04 |
14774 |
46791 |
38155 |
2007M05 |
14752 |
46747 |
37866 |
2007M06 |
13280 |
43850 |
35956 |
2007M07 |
12437 |
41915 |
35251 |
2007M08 |
12339 |
42456 |
35642 |
2007M09 |
9576 |
33254 |
28921 |
2007M10 |
10399 |
36286 |
30834 |
2007M11 |
8328 |
34457 |
31006 |
2007M12 |
6252 |
32287 |
29117 |
2008M01 |
7067 |
29070 |
29791 |
2008M02 |
5278 |
27645 |
30368 |
2008M03 |
3894 |
20883 |
24803 |
2008M04 |
2539 |
16295 |
22265 |
2008M05 |
1943 |
13630 |
19221 |
2008M06 |
1512 |
11531 |
17350 |
2008M07 |
1297 |
10531 |
16435 |
2008M08 |
985 |
9363 |
14524 |
2008M09 |
811 |
7911 |
12834 |
2008M10 |
834 |
7733 |
13211 |
2008M11 |
702 |
6345 |
10482 |
2008M12 |
644 |
6248 |
10391 |
2009M01 |
493 |
4480 |
8824 |
2009M02 |
395 |
4197 |
8267 |
2009M03 |
456 |
3758 |
7715 |
2009M04 |
389 |
3579 |
7576 |
2009M05 |
227 |
3299 |
7253 |
2009M06 |
258 |
3279 |
7381 |
2009M07 |
333 |
3452 |
7614 |
2009M08 |
284 |
3222 |
6716 |
2009M09 |
240 |
3271 |
7089 |
2009M10 |
237 |
3505 |
7360 |
2009M11 |
209 |
3541 |
7518 |
2009M12 |
189 |
3642 |
7177 |
2010M01 |
127 |
3090 |
6300 |
2010M02 |
36 |
3060 |
6015 |
2010M03 |
51 |
3243 |
6675 |
2010M04 |
46 |
3641 |
6953 |
2010M05 |
43 |
3353 |
6938 |
2010M06 |
35 |
3841 |
7592 |
2010M07 |
27 |
2758 |
5611 |
2010M08 |
28 |
2580 |
5651 |
2010M09 |
25 |
2491 |
5646 |
2010M10 |
16 |
2307 |
5370 |
2010M11 |
31 |
2499 |
5834 |
2010M12 |
20 |
2801 |
6402 |
2011M01 |
15 |
3038 |
6482 |
2011M02 |
12 |
3009 |
6395 |
2011M03 |
43 |
3293 |
6547 |
2011M04 |
26 |
3194 |
6257 |
2011M05 |
27 |
3140 |
6192 |
2011M06 |
35 |
3564 |
6717 |
2011M07 |
18 |
3593 |
6615 |
2011M08 |
21 |
3749 |
7291 |
2011M09 |
35 |
3684 |
6990 |
2011M10 |
24 |
3512 |
6770 |
2011M11 |
29 |
3517 |
6917 |
2011M12 |
23 |
3541 |
7249 |
2012M01 |
33 |
3894 |
7362 |
2012M02 |
33 |
3940 |
7822 |
2012M03 |
22 |
3822 |
7906 |
2012M04 |
28 |
3783 |
7935 |
2012M05 |
28 |
4129 |
8383 |
2012M06 |
28 |
4073 |
8634 |
2012M07 |
38 |
3703 |
7743 |
2012M08 |
28 |
3931 |
8061 |
2012M09 |
16 |
3984 |
8286 |
2012M10 |
32 |
4290 |
8859 |
2012M11 |
29 |
4227 |
9239 |
2012M12 |
32 |
4431 |
9316 |
2013M01 |
32 |
4955 |
10378 |
2013M02 |
31 |
5094 |
10649 |
2013M03 |
32 |
5252 |
11068 |
2013M04 |
40 |
5648 |
11562 |
2013M05 |
35 |
5753 |
12190 |
2013M06 |
30 |
5461 |
11639 |
2013M07 |
28 |
6385 |
13280 |
2013M08 |
34 |
6837 |
13623 |
2013M09 |
28 |
6582 |
13443 |
2013M10 |
41 |
7205 |
14124 |
2013M11 |
35 |
6890 |
13031 |
2013M12 |
39 |
7395 |
14003 |
2014M01 |
42 |
6324 |
11930 |
2014M02 |
43 |
6416 |
10939 |
2014M03 |
52 |
5691 |
9830 |
2014M04 |
36 |
6574 |
11480 |
2014M05 |
43 |
6875 |
11540 |
2014M06 |
41 |
7522 |
11726 |
2014M07 |
49 |
7925 |
11882 |
2014M08 |
51 |
7545 |
11120 |
2014M09 |
46 |
7370 |
11700 |
Return to text
Figure 2B: GSE Purchase Originations by Credit Score (High Credit Scores)
Source: Authors' estimates from Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) and LPS / Black Knight data.
|
711-740 |
741-770 |
771-790 |
>790 |
2003M01 |
52200 |
66126 |
47205 |
28845 |
2003M02 |
48323 |
60446 |
44003 |
27356 |
2003M03 |
46028 |
57584 |
41155 |
24850 |
2003M04 |
47647 |
60053 |
43253 |
25762 |
2003M05 |
48519 |
60971 |
43150 |
25688 |
2003M06 |
46840 |
59526 |
42417 |
24952 |
2003M07 |
50077 |
64481 |
45406 |
26380 |
2003M08 |
50451 |
64624 |
45641 |
26758 |
2003M09 |
51167 |
64470 |
45614 |
27432 |
2003M10 |
52387 |
65517 |
45147 |
26133 |
2003M11 |
44386 |
56230 |
39310 |
22758 |
2003M12 |
50642 |
63530 |
45250 |
26201 |
2004M01 |
50192 |
64998 |
45099 |
26130 |
2004M02 |
51368 |
65532 |
46839 |
27687 |
2004M03 |
54231 |
68616 |
49501 |
29830 |
2004M04 |
55470 |
71758 |
52272 |
31758 |
2004M05 |
50890 |
65676 |
47848 |
29236 |
2004M06 |
53944 |
68624 |
49785 |
31082 |
2004M07 |
53723 |
67161 |
49183 |
30713 |
2004M08 |
52485 |
65211 |
47875 |
31140 |
2004M09 |
52215 |
65584 |
48423 |
31652 |
2004M10 |
52166 |
66438 |
49180 |
34431 |
2004M11 |
52140 |
65170 |
48543 |
36189 |
2004M12 |
52322 |
65527 |
50167 |
39965 |
2005M01 |
52701 |
64908 |
50342 |
41413 |
2005M02 |
51770 |
63027 |
48495 |
41770 |
2005M03 |
54336 |
66589 |
51151 |
44958 |
2005M04 |
56147 |
69716 |
54586 |
49800 |
2005M05 |
57396 |
70165 |
55583 |
50603 |
2005M06 |
60491 |
72721 |
57405 |
53314 |
2005M07 |
57643 |
71081 |
55947 |
51853 |
2005M08 |
61436 |
74486 |
58756 |
55111 |
2005M09 |
61581 |
73596 |
58960 |
54930 |
2005M10 |
56884 |
68313 |
53626 |
51465 |
2005M11 |
60067 |
72450 |
56001 |
53649 |
2005M12 |
61856 |
73589 |
55718 |
51936 |
2006M01 |
59122 |
68490 |
52885 |
49781 |
2006M02 |
54829 |
65958 |
50508 |
46686 |
2006M03 |
57588 |
67131 |
52470 |
49822 |
2006M04 |
50585 |
59449 |
45409 |
43405 |
2006M05 |
52653 |
61873 |
47667 |
45384 |
2006M06 |
50959 |
59985 |
46130 |
44324 |
2006M07 |
45127 |
52485 |
39433 |
39389 |
2006M08 |
49320 |
56987 |
43141 |
42194 |
2006M09 |
46591 |
53462 |
40701 |
39891 |
2006M10 |
46174 |
54040 |
40539 |
40290 |
2006M11 |
45078 |
51593 |
38580 |
37897 |
2006M12 |
46974 |
53895 |
40680 |
39918 |
2007M01 |
44710 |
50995 |
38148 |
38448 |
2007M02 |
43564 |
49910 |
37037 |
36147 |
2007M03 |
43021 |
48504 |
36411 |
36704 |
2007M04 |
39921 |
44626 |
33597 |
33305 |
2007M05 |
39295 |
43655 |
32589 |
32655 |
2007M06 |
38492 |
42492 |
31982 |
32337 |
2007M07 |
37796 |
42315 |
32694 |
32829 |
2007M08 |
37635 |
42789 |
33022 |
32899 |
2007M09 |
29733 |
33598 |
25759 |
25064 |
2007M10 |
32499 |
36555 |
29409 |
29048 |
2007M11 |
31670 |
36346 |
29143 |
29216 |
2007M12 |
31055 |
36248 |
28571 |
29069 |
2008M01 |
32167 |
37168 |
29460 |
29893 |
2008M02 |
31771 |
38405 |
30830 |
30800 |
2008M03 |
26896 |
32456 |
26749 |
27726 |
2008M04 |
26333 |
31964 |
27525 |
28415 |
2008M05 |
24315 |
30325 |
25923 |
27988 |
2008M06 |
21714 |
27630 |
24720 |
25392 |
2008M07 |
21137 |
27448 |
24456 |
25765 |
2008M08 |
19418 |
25346 |
23111 |
24614 |
2008M09 |
17386 |
22825 |
21169 |
22719 |
2008M10 |
18359 |
25043 |
23169 |
24596 |
2008M11 |
13505 |
19345 |
17611 |
18653 |
2008M12 |
15040 |
21725 |
20785 |
22306 |
2009M01 |
13322 |
19806 |
20073 |
21979 |
2009M02 |
13140 |
20520 |
19963 |
22618 |
2009M03 |
12623 |
19192 |
19586 |
21740 |
2009M04 |
12445 |
19718 |
19573 |
22769 |
2009M05 |
12204 |
19252 |
19857 |
22558 |
2009M06 |
12552 |
20102 |
20435 |
23508 |
2009M07 |
13132 |
20838 |
21146 |
24147 |
2009M08 |
11988 |
19144 |
19917 |
22374 |
2009M09 |
11632 |
19519 |
20086 |
23237 |
2009M10 |
12435 |
20190 |
20982 |
24358 |
2009M11 |
12084 |
20266 |
20499 |
23815 |
2009M12 |
11931 |
19162 |
20676 |
24343 |
2010M01 |
10670 |
17233 |
18336 |
21529 |
2010M02 |
9858 |
17041 |
17630 |
20615 |
2010M03 |
11245 |
18695 |
20462 |
23798 |
2010M04 |
11596 |
19693 |
21300 |
25823 |
2010M05 |
11040 |
18225 |
20196 |
24157 |
2010M06 |
12019 |
19739 |
21627 |
26223 |
2010M07 |
8646 |
14457 |
16524 |
20867 |
2010M08 |
8787 |
14926 |
16983 |
21531 |
2010M09 |
9112 |
15148 |
17220 |
21499 |
2010M10 |
8696 |
14328 |
16558 |
20899 |
2010M11 |
9387 |
15536 |
17610 |
22222 |
2010M12 |
10996 |
18731 |
20991 |
26192 |
2011M01 |
10808 |
17838 |
19936 |
24475 |
2011M02 |
10037 |
16887 |
19006 |
22552 |
2011M03 |
10452 |
17228 |
19245 |
23471 |
2011M04 |
9804 |
16066 |
17818 |
21741 |
2011M05 |
9614 |
15596 |
16695 |
20483 |
2011M06 |
10675 |
17335 |
18493 |
22382 |
2011M07 |
9946 |
16414 |
17683 |
21133 |
2011M08 |
11211 |
18364 |
19825 |
23929 |
2011M09 |
11169 |
18733 |
20101 |
24569 |
2011M10 |
10695 |
17762 |
19620 |
23808 |
2011M11 |
11150 |
18610 |
20467 |
25057 |
2011M12 |
11738 |
20078 |
21889 |
26750 |
2012M01 |
11552 |
19653 |
20928 |
25777 |
2012M02 |
12336 |
20980 |
21723 |
27467 |
2012M03 |
12836 |
21004 |
22380 |
28274 |
2012M04 |
12859 |
21234 |
22953 |
28701 |
2012M05 |
13439 |
22652 |
24140 |
29578 |
2012M06 |
13869 |
22881 |
24620 |
30110 |
2012M07 |
12687 |
21340 |
23120 |
28345 |
2012M08 |
13190 |
22442 |
24131 |
28521 |
2012M09 |
13432 |
22016 |
23735 |
28631 |
2012M10 |
14133 |
24234 |
25574 |
30516 |
2012M11 |
14090 |
24299 |
25122 |
29716 |
2012M12 |
14978 |
25129 |
25943 |
30863 |
2013M01 |
15872 |
27056 |
28094 |
33236 |
2013M02 |
16279 |
27543 |
28650 |
33639 |
2013M03 |
16894 |
28819 |
28850 |
33740 |
2013M04 |
17778 |
30130 |
30500 |
35008 |
2013M05 |
19286 |
31075 |
30797 |
36574 |
2013M06 |
17743 |
29461 |
29516 |
34065 |
2013M07 |
20759 |
32892 |
32322 |
37239 |
2013M08 |
20425 |
32138 |
30926 |
35335 |
2013M09 |
19703 |
31042 |
29867 |
33515 |
2013M10 |
20972 |
31986 |
30271 |
34647 |
2013M11 |
19218 |
28999 |
27924 |
31782 |
2013M12 |
20414 |
30552 |
29915 |
34566 |
2014M01 |
17023 |
24661 |
23729 |
27881 |
2014M02 |
15882 |
22656 |
22237 |
25604 |
2014M03 |
13464 |
19629 |
19435 |
22515 |
2014M04 |
15719 |
22540 |
21477 |
25832 |
2014M05 |
15548 |
22715 |
21770 |
26021 |
2014M06 |
15870 |
23157 |
22336 |
26519 |
2014M07 |
16106 |
23721 |
22849 |
27720 |
2014M08 |
15343 |
22694 |
21995 |
27465 |
2014M09 |
16080 |
23835 |
22538 |
28827 |
Return to text
Figure 3: 10th-Percentile Credit Scores on GSE Originations
Source: Calculations from LPS / Black Knight data.
|
Purchase originations |
Refinance originations |
2003M01 |
640 |
651 |
2003M02 |
642 |
652 |
2003M03 |
645 |
652 |
2003M04 |
645 |
652 |
2003M05 |
647 |
649 |
2003M06 |
649 |
655 |
2003M07 |
649 |
657 |
2003M08 |
648 |
651 |
2003M09 |
645 |
643 |
2003M10 |
644 |
637 |
2003M11 |
644 |
634 |
2003M12 |
643 |
633 |
2004M01 |
643 |
636 |
2004M02 |
644 |
641 |
2004M03 |
644 |
643 |
2004M04 |
646 |
647 |
2004M05 |
647 |
640 |
2004M06 |
646 |
633 |
2004M07 |
646 |
631 |
2004M08 |
646 |
631 |
2004M09 |
645 |
633 |
2004M10 |
645 |
635 |
2004M11 |
645 |
636 |
2004M12 |
644 |
635 |
2005M01 |
645 |
635 |
2005M02 |
644 |
638 |
2005M03 |
645 |
639 |
2005M04 |
647 |
635 |
2005M05 |
650 |
637 |
2005M06 |
650 |
640 |
2005M07 |
652 |
643 |
2005M08 |
652 |
641 |
2005M09 |
651 |
640 |
2005M10 |
648 |
638 |
2005M11 |
648 |
636 |
2005M12 |
645 |
633 |
2006M01 |
645 |
633 |
2006M02 |
644 |
634 |
2006M03 |
645 |
633 |
2006M04 |
646 |
634 |
2006M05 |
647 |
633 |
2006M06 |
649 |
633 |
2006M07 |
647 |
633 |
2006M08 |
644 |
631 |
2006M09 |
643 |
632 |
2006M10 |
642 |
633 |
2006M11 |
641 |
633 |
2006M12 |
640 |
635 |
2007M01 |
640 |
636 |
2007M02 |
638 |
635 |
2007M03 |
637 |
635 |
2007M04 |
635 |
634 |
2007M05 |
637 |
632 |
2007M06 |
639 |
629 |
2007M07 |
640 |
627 |
2007M08 |
637 |
624 |
2007M09 |
636 |
625 |
2007M10 |
637 |
624 |
2007M11 |
640 |
625 |
2007M12 |
642 |
631 |
2008M01 |
647 |
639 |
2008M02 |
653 |
659 |
2008M03 |
660 |
656 |
2008M04 |
671 |
661 |
2008M05 |
677 |
663 |
2008M06 |
681 |
662 |
2008M07 |
683 |
660 |
2008M08 |
682 |
660 |
2008M09 |
683 |
665 |
2008M10 |
685 |
674 |
2008M11 |
686 |
669 |
2008M12 |
689 |
688 |
2009M01 |
695 |
706 |
2009M02 |
699 |
710 |
2009M03 |
700 |
709 |
2009M04 |
702 |
711 |
2009M05 |
704 |
709 |
2009M06 |
705 |
704 |
2009M07 |
704 |
698 |
2009M08 |
703 |
692 |
2009M09 |
702 |
690 |
2009M10 |
702 |
691 |
2009M11 |
703 |
690 |
2009M12 |
702 |
688 |
2010M01 |
702 |
686 |
2010M02 |
703 |
683 |
2010M03 |
703 |
682 |
2010M04 |
704 |
682 |
2010M05 |
704 |
684 |
2010M06 |
704 |
687 |
2010M07 |
703 |
693 |
2010M08 |
704 |
697 |
2010M09 |
705 |
699 |
2010M10 |
704 |
699 |
2010M11 |
706 |
699 |
2010M12 |
705 |
697 |
2011M01 |
703 |
691 |
2011M02 |
702 |
686 |
2011M03 |
701 |
682 |
2011M04 |
701 |
677 |
2011M05 |
700 |
676 |
2011M06 |
702 |
680 |
2011M07 |
700 |
676 |
2011M08 |
700 |
679 |
2011M09 |
701 |
693 |
2011M10 |
701 |
698 |
2011M11 |
702 |
699 |
2011M12 |
701 |
695 |
2012M01 |
701 |
688 |
2012M02 |
702 |
686 |
2012M03 |
702 |
683 |
2012M04 |
703 |
673 |
2012M05 |
703 |
664 |
2012M06 |
704 |
673 |
2012M07 |
704 |
679 |
2012M08 |
702 |
681 |
2012M09 |
701 |
680 |
2012M10 |
701 |
678 |
2012M11 |
702 |
679 |
2012M12 |
699 |
678 |
2013M01 |
699 |
675 |
2013M02 |
699 |
669 |
2013M03 |
700 |
669 |
2013M04 |
701 |
666 |
2013M05 |
700 |
667 |
2013M06 |
700 |
668 |
2013M07 |
699 |
664 |
2013M08 |
696 |
654 |
2013M09 |
695 |
648 |
2013M10 |
693 |
648 |
2013M11 |
694 |
649 |
2013M12 |
692 |
649 |
2014M01 |
691 |
648 |
2014M02 |
690 |
648 |
2014M03 |
690 |
651 |
2014M04 |
690 |
651 |
2014M05 |
690 |
655 |
2014M06 |
689 |
660 |
2014M07 |
689 |
663 |
2014M08 |
687 |
661 |
2014M09 |
687 |
662 |
Return to text
Figure 4A: Refinance Applications vs Mortgage-Related Employees
Source: For mortgage employees, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); for refinance applications, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data; for fixed-rate mortgage rate, Freddie Mac and Optimal Blue (formerly LoanSifter) data; for MBS yield, Barclays.
|
Refinance applications |
Mortgage-related employees |
2003M01 |
2061818 |
413600 |
2003M02 |
1935396 |
421300 |
2003M03 |
2660231 |
423500 |
2003M04 |
2198835 |
432000 |
2003M05 |
2642281 |
446000 |
2003M06 |
3027102 |
452900 |
2003M07 |
2478605 |
464000 |
2003M08 |
1468658 |
465300 |
2003M09 |
1340031 |
465300 |
2003M10 |
1384533 |
461900 |
2003M11 |
1084148 |
457500 |
2003M12 |
1064635 |
454200 |
2004M01 |
1406374 |
448600 |
2004M02 |
1437339 |
454300 |
2004M03 |
2034980 |
462900 |
2004M04 |
1517079 |
468100 |
2004M05 |
1158842 |
471500 |
2004M06 |
1173626 |
473000 |
2004M07 |
1149272 |
470800 |
2004M08 |
1248028 |
472100 |
2004M09 |
1248808 |
470400 |
2004M10 |
1263130 |
473900 |
2004M11 |
1236880 |
473400 |
2004M12 |
1113401 |
473700 |
2005M01 |
1257834 |
473700 |
2005M02 |
1303581 |
479400 |
2005M03 |
1410894 |
481100 |
2005M04 |
1264322 |
480000 |
2005M05 |
1308012 |
479600 |
2005M06 |
1529529 |
489600 |
2005M07 |
1353515 |
493400 |
2005M08 |
1517781 |
496500 |
2005M09 |
1361053 |
497500 |
2005M10 |
1316111 |
504100 |
2005M11 |
1204397 |
502100 |
2005M12 |
1055746 |
500500 |
2006M01 |
1240353 |
498100 |
2006M02 |
1124302 |
504500 |
2006M03 |
1322246 |
503300 |
2006M04 |
1127839 |
500100 |
2006M05 |
1155489 |
497300 |
2006M06 |
1162608 |
497200 |
2006M07 |
1041888 |
495200 |
2006M08 |
1228498 |
493900 |
2006M09 |
1128948 |
495000 |
2006M10 |
1243879 |
495700 |
2006M11 |
1154120 |
490900 |
2006M12 |
975459 |
483600 |
2007M01 |
1147650 |
475500 |
2007M02 |
1006621 |
475700 |
2007M03 |
1186660 |
465800 |
2007M04 |
1050807 |
450800 |
2007M05 |
1066273 |
441600 |
2007M06 |
955190 |
431800 |
2007M07 |
922283 |
421400 |
2007M08 |
954678 |
391800 |
2007M09 |
748624 |
363500 |
2007M10 |
857288 |
355900 |
2007M11 |
768702 |
348700 |
2007M12 |
634239 |
339700 |
2008M01 |
1171649 |
332500 |
2008M02 |
987543 |
329100 |
2008M03 |
857506 |
321900 |
2008M04 |
746455 |
314800 |
2008M05 |
623583 |
314900 |
2008M06 |
481300 |
314300 |
2008M07 |
487671 |
309200 |
2008M08 |
403650 |
301700 |
2008M09 |
529214 |
302400 |
2008M10 |
439252 |
291700 |
2008M11 |
415304 |
285700 |
2008M12 |
1137979 |
280800 |
2009M01 |
1408349 |
272400 |
2009M02 |
824690 |
271600 |
2009M03 |
1233879 |
271900 |
2009M04 |
1328043 |
266700 |
2009M05 |
885326 |
267000 |
2009M06 |
512784 |
267100 |
2009M07 |
544479 |
267900 |
2009M08 |
519538 |
264100 |
2009M09 |
629970 |
262900 |
2009M10 |
713958 |
258800 |
2009M11 |
607910 |
262500 |
2009M12 |
545228 |
261400 |
2010M01 |
454165 |
258500 |
2010M02 |
503469 |
263600 |
2010M03 |
592371 |
264000 |
2010M04 |
464267 |
262900 |
2010M05 |
549379 |
263400 |
2010M06 |
754666 |
263800 |
2010M07 |
952850 |
270000 |
2010M08 |
1131759 |
270800 |
2010M09 |
980191 |
273800 |
2010M10 |
993366 |
278100 |
2010M11 |
802240 |
279500 |
2010M12 |
475934 |
280300 |
2011M01 |
471377 |
272400 |
2011M02 |
403438 |
272800 |
2011M03 |
518009 |
272100 |
2011M04 |
402687 |
265800 |
2011M05 |
487542 |
268700 |
2011M06 |
564477 |
265500 |
2011M07 |
498691 |
262600 |
2011M08 |
1014035 |
259400 |
2011M09 |
884525 |
259400 |
2011M10 |
816051 |
259800 |
2011M11 |
691133 |
261900 |
2011M12 |
668803 |
261300 |
2012M01 |
888148 |
257700 |
2012M02 |
914346 |
260000 |
2012M03 |
844193 |
262300 |
2012M04 |
790411 |
263300 |
2012M05 |
914107 |
266700 |
2012M06 |
1013714 |
275300 |
2012M07 |
1060664 |
278600 |
2012M08 |
1013614 |
284000 |
2012M09 |
907626 |
288400 |
2012M10 |
1097999 |
289800 |
2012M11 |
896458 |
293900 |
2012M12 |
763190 |
297600 |
2013M01 |
923964 |
295500 |
2013M02 |
790576 |
297700 |
2013M03 |
848708 |
301100 |
2013M04 |
928786 |
303700 |
2013M05 |
839366 |
303400 |
2013M06 |
581268 |
305000 |
2013M07 |
481207 |
305200 |
2013M08 |
415462 |
300400 |
2013M09 |
359723 |
294300 |
2013M10 |
471325.158130548 |
292200 |
2013M11 |
363591.694378082 |
290300 |
2013M12 |
285612.956660267 |
287400 |
2014M01 |
347602.673771305 |
279800 |
2014M02 |
319733.149990747 |
278000 |
2014M03 |
308806.666602142 |
273100 |
2014M04 |
294959.031708691 |
273500 |
2014M05 |
300937.258435716 |
274500 |
2014M06 |
287282.0208942 |
277500 |
2014M07 |
300238.706547521 |
280900 |
2014M08 |
289502.107730501 |
280800 |
2014M09 |
284669.652230433 |
283600 |
Return to text
Figure 4B: Capacity Utilization
Source: For mortgage employees, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); for refinance applications, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data; for fixed-rate mortgage rate, Freddie Mac and Optimal Blue (formerly LoanSifter) data; for MBS yield, Barclays.
The fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rate to current-coupon mortgage-backed security (MBS) yield spread declined from about 80 basis points in 2003 to about 50 basis points in 2006-2007. It then increased during 2008, reaching a high of about 120 basis points in late 2008, and then gradually decreased to about 60-70 basis points by the end of 2009. The FRM to MBS spread increased again in mid-2010, reaching a high of about 100 basis points, before declining to about 60 basis points by mid-2011. The FRM to MBS spread increased yet again in late 2011, reaching a high of about 120 basis points by mid-2012, and then gradually decreased to about 80-90 basis points during 2013-2014.
|
Refinance applications per mortgage-related employee |
2003M01 |
8.74623677658738 |
2003M02 |
8.60391931907537 |
2003M03 |
10.2945054359817 |
2003M04 |
10.0022627281534 |
2003M05 |
10.6139624005951 |
2003M06 |
11.7036843653634 |
2003M07 |
10.8010672289912 |
2003M08 |
8.23878305957809 |
2003M09 |
6.62904580399157 |
2003M10 |
5.89425764186778 |
2003M11 |
4.98298740526237 |
2003M12 |
4.63819913031651 |
2004M01 |
5.27413297682829 |
2004M02 |
5.6135786772818 |
2004M03 |
7.05483636540375 |
2004M04 |
6.6218488198403 |
2004M05 |
5.57276240519849 |
2004M06 |
5.0698792106515 |
2004M07 |
4.70128444098465 |
2004M08 |
4.79165118083515 |
2004M09 |
4.8969934203279 |
2004M10 |
4.95881282181586 |
2004M11 |
4.93959614584301 |
2004M12 |
4.6550100072595 |
2005M01 |
4.81692014369623 |
2005M02 |
4.96106571634042 |
2005M03 |
5.2498772976707 |
2005M04 |
5.11204063585244 |
2005M05 |
5.1173593896722 |
2005M06 |
5.51276813872429 |
2005M07 |
5.31633473123543 |
2005M08 |
5.55050283027658 |
2005M09 |
5.34058023050369 |
2005M10 |
5.08585107155294 |
2005M11 |
4.77019236574423 |
2005M12 |
4.30341875493751 |
2006M01 |
4.47089146051498 |
2006M02 |
4.30081697340265 |
2006M03 |
4.62764131711381 |
2006M04 |
4.43721119957957 |
2006M05 |
4.38649509492761 |
2006M06 |
4.39227389421273 |
2006M07 |
4.13591404949072 |
2006M08 |
4.41434690720114 |
2006M09 |
4.34265616920422 |
2006M10 |
4.53452198537482 |
2006M11 |
4.48679133095042 |
2006M12 |
4.10501498130199 |
2007M01 |
4.32352822002677 |
2007M02 |
4.12101413184821 |
2007M03 |
4.46114183687477 |
2007M04 |
4.43548623062845 |
2007M05 |
4.48146280540017 |
2007M06 |
4.32058826249413 |
2007M07 |
4.18968726848838 |
2007M08 |
4.38580346374077 |
2007M09 |
4.10147957236817 |
2007M10 |
4.32127176629609 |
2007M11 |
4.22832684614281 |
2007M12 |
3.82892925864788 |
2008M01 |
5.30950300104416 |
2008M02 |
5.50494056631058 |
2008M03 |
5.27857972134906 |
2008M04 |
4.89380278555331 |
2008M05 |
4.20692384285628 |
2008M06 |
3.44725525740997 |
2008M07 |
3.13433699874549 |
2008M08 |
2.75688671523308 |
2008M09 |
3.0047235773806 |
2008M10 |
2.91248783264626 |
2008M11 |
2.81130544453497 |
2008M12 |
5.37466458477122 |
2009M01 |
7.74810491281717 |
2009M02 |
6.81635162768781 |
2009M03 |
7.85531175219654 |
2009M04 |
8.65390519834845 |
2009M05 |
7.31964590740815 |
2009M06 |
5.38986738048653 |
2009M07 |
4.44370584238116 |
2009M08 |
3.87783356320588 |
2009M09 |
4.12791185901663 |
2009M10 |
4.70269204533709 |
2009M11 |
4.54016886568033 |
2009M12 |
4.23293386018026 |
2010M01 |
3.72362685053557 |
2010M02 |
3.59936656462581 |
2010M03 |
3.89877235157697 |
2010M04 |
3.58496893080194 |
2010M05 |
3.7683980164717 |
2010M06 |
4.62557623656012 |
2010M07 |
5.70162284576322 |
2010M08 |
6.91975668523206 |
2010M09 |
6.90947327918053 |
2010M10 |
6.84791383908434 |
2010M11 |
6.07365812622739 |
2010M12 |
4.47356681954197 |
2011M01 |
3.74349526125963 |
2011M02 |
3.12737754787302 |
2011M03 |
3.2880419496276 |
2011M04 |
3.0528994086347 |
2011M05 |
3.23274336310754 |
2011M06 |
3.65003218333898 |
2011M07 |
3.60508382229443 |
2011M08 |
5.61701015517188 |
2011M09 |
6.1049903224426 |
2011M10 |
6.06068841450609 |
2011M11 |
5.55057290528971 |
2011M12 |
5.09048584129926 |
2012M01 |
5.77856650668621 |
2012M02 |
6.20968151902084 |
2012M03 |
6.15833376185174 |
2012M04 |
5.92113753150379 |
2012M05 |
6.17263898172752 |
2012M06 |
6.54874054394571 |
2012M07 |
6.88034000117411 |
2012M08 |
6.82161208386912 |
2012M09 |
6.34369717401999 |
2012M10 |
6.73052652684199 |
2012M11 |
6.17753253949074 |
2012M12 |
5.43018233535948 |
2013M01 |
5.64517863212562 |
2013M02 |
5.24140132274772 |
2013M03 |
5.24875372858946 |
2013M04 |
5.52233180679267 |
2013M05 |
5.33227467571948 |
2013M06 |
4.40595824459278 |
2013M07 |
3.60350487692348 |
2013M08 |
2.99364203895929 |
2013M09 |
2.58495081496634 |
2013M10 |
2.7918763031636 |
2013M11 |
2.55606605695888 |
2013M12 |
2.19173038493952 |
2014M01 |
2.26586164647151 |
2014M02 |
2.18847160055289 |
2014M03 |
2.15301733493795 |
2014M04 |
2.09914946332612 |
2014M05 |
2.07450236174428 |
2014M06 |
2.00679184588023 |
2014M07 |
2.00766645976631 |
2014M08 |
1.97351102109333 |
2014M09 |
1.92802944272121 |
Return to text
Figure 5A: 10th Percentile Credit Scores on Purchase Originations vs Capacity Utilization
Source: For mortgage employees, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); for refinance applications, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data; for 10th-percentile credit scores, LPS / Black Knight data.
|
Capacity utilization |
10-percentile credit score on purchase originations |
2009M07 |
4.44370584238116 |
704 |
2009M08 |
3.87783356320588 |
703 |
2009M09 |
4.12791185901663 |
702 |
2009M10 |
4.70269204533709 |
702 |
2009M11 |
4.54016886568033 |
703 |
2009M12 |
4.23293386018026 |
702 |
2010M01 |
3.72362685053557 |
702 |
2010M02 |
3.59936656462581 |
703 |
2010M03 |
3.89877235157697 |
703 |
2010M04 |
3.58496893080194 |
704 |
2010M05 |
3.7683980164717 |
704 |
2010M06 |
4.62557623656012 |
704 |
2010M07 |
5.70162284576322 |
703 |
2010M08 |
6.91975668523206 |
704 |
2010M09 |
6.90947327918053 |
705 |
2010M10 |
6.84791383908434 |
704 |
2010M11 |
6.07365812622739 |
706 |
2010M12 |
4.47356681954197 |
705 |
2011M01 |
3.74349526125963 |
703 |
2011M02 |
3.12737754787302 |
702 |
2011M03 |
3.2880419496276 |
701 |
2011M04 |
3.0528994086347 |
701 |
2011M05 |
3.23274336310754 |
700 |
2011M06 |
3.65003218333898 |
702 |
2011M07 |
3.60508382229443 |
700 |
2011M08 |
5.61701015517188 |
700 |
2011M09 |
6.1049903224426 |
701 |
2011M10 |
6.06068841450609 |
701 |
2011M11 |
5.55057290528971 |
702 |
2011M12 |
5.09048584129926 |
701 |
2012M01 |
5.77856650668621 |
701 |
2012M02 |
6.20968151902084 |
702 |
2012M03 |
6.15833376185174 |
702 |
2012M04 |
5.92113753150379 |
703 |
2012M05 |
6.17263898172752 |
703 |
2012M06 |
6.54874054394571 |
704 |
2012M07 |
6.88034000117411 |
704 |
2012M08 |
6.82161208386912 |
702 |
2012M09 |
6.34369717401999 |
701 |
2012M10 |
6.73052652684199 |
701 |
2012M11 |
6.17753253949074 |
702 |
2012M12 |
5.43018233535948 |
699 |
2013M01 |
5.64517863212562 |
699 |
2013M02 |
5.24140132274772 |
699 |
2013M03 |
5.24875372858946 |
700 |
2013M04 |
5.52233180679267 |
701 |
2013M05 |
5.33227467571948 |
700 |
2013M06 |
4.40595824459278 |
700 |
2013M07 |
3.60350487692348 |
699 |
2013M08 |
2.99364203895929 |
696 |
2013M09 |
2.58495081496634 |
695 |
2013M10 |
2.7918763031636 |
693 |
2013M11 |
2.55606605695888 |
694 |
2013M12 |
2.19173038493952 |
692 |
2014M01 |
2.26586164647151 |
691 |
2014M02 |
2.18847160055289 |
690 |
2014M03 |
2.15301733493795 |
690 |
2014M04 |
2.09914946332612 |
690 |
2014M05 |
2.07450236174428 |
690 |
2014M06 |
2.00679184588023 |
689 |
2014M07 |
2.00766645976631 |
689 |
2014M08 |
1.97351102109333 |
687 |
2014M09 |
1.92802944272121 |
687 |
Return to text
Figure 5B: 10th Percentile Credit Scores on Refinance Originations vs Capacity Utilization
Source: For mortgage employees, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); for refinance applications, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data; for 10th-percentile credit scores, LPS / Black Knight data.
|
Capacity utilization |
10-percentile credit score on purchase originations |
2009M07 |
4.44370584238116 |
698 |
2009M08 |
3.87783356320588 |
692 |
2009M09 |
4.12791185901663 |
690 |
2009M10 |
4.70269204533709 |
691 |
2009M11 |
4.54016886568033 |
690 |
2009M12 |
4.23293386018026 |
688 |
2010M01 |
3.72362685053557 |
686 |
2010M02 |
3.59936656462581 |
683 |
2010M03 |
3.89877235157697 |
682 |
2010M04 |
3.58496893080194 |
682 |
2010M05 |
3.7683980164717 |
684 |
2010M06 |
4.62557623656012 |
687 |
2010M07 |
5.70162284576322 |
693 |
2010M08 |
6.91975668523206 |
697 |
2010M09 |
6.90947327918053 |
699 |
2010M10 |
6.84791383908434 |
699 |
2010M11 |
6.07365812622739 |
699 |
2010M12 |
4.47356681954197 |
697 |
2011M01 |
3.74349526125963 |
691 |
2011M02 |
3.12737754787302 |
686 |
2011M03 |
3.2880419496276 |
682 |
2011M04 |
3.0528994086347 |
677 |
2011M05 |
3.23274336310754 |
676 |
2011M06 |
3.65003218333898 |
680 |
2011M07 |
3.60508382229443 |
676 |
2011M08 |
5.61701015517188 |
679 |
2011M09 |
6.1049903224426 |
693 |
2011M10 |
6.06068841450609 |
698 |
2011M11 |
5.55057290528971 |
699 |
2011M12 |
5.09048584129926 |
695 |
2012M01 |
5.77856650668621 |
688 |
2012M02 |
6.20968151902084 |
686 |
2012M03 |
6.15833376185174 |
683 |
2012M04 |
5.92113753150379 |
673 |
2012M05 |
6.17263898172752 |
664 |
2012M06 |
6.54874054394571 |
673 |
2012M07 |
6.88034000117411 |
679 |
2012M08 |
6.82161208386912 |
681 |
2012M09 |
6.34369717401999 |
680 |
2012M10 |
6.73052652684199 |
678 |
2012M11 |
6.17753253949074 |
679 |
2012M12 |
5.43018233535948 |
678 |
2013M01 |
5.64517863212562 |
675 |
2013M02 |
5.24140132274772 |
669 |
2013M03 |
5.24875372858946 |
669 |
2013M04 |
5.52233180679267 |
666 |
2013M05 |
5.33227467571948 |
667 |
2013M06 |
4.40595824459278 |
668 |
2013M07 |
3.60350487692348 |
664 |
2013M08 |
2.99364203895929 |
654 |
2013M09 |
2.58495081496634 |
648 |
2013M10 |
2.7918763031636 |
648 |
2013M11 |
2.55606605695888 |
649 |
2013M12 |
2.19173038493952 |
649 |
2014M01 |
2.26586164647151 |
648 |
2014M02 |
2.18847160055289 |
648 |
2014M03 |
2.15301733493795 |
651 |
2014M04 |
2.09914946332612 |
651 |
2014M05 |
2.07450236174428 |
655 |
2014M06 |
2.00679184588023 |
660 |
2014M07 |
2.00766645976631 |
663 |
2014M08 |
1.97351102109333 |
661 |
2014M09 |
1.92802944272121 |
662 |
Return to text
Figure 6A: Purchase Applications by Credit Score (Low Credit Scores)
Source: Estimates based on Optimal Blue data, and does not contain lender or customer identities.
|
<=620 |
621-680 |
681-710 |
2003M01 |
189 |
7225 |
4808 |
2003M02 |
192 |
8745 |
5738 |
2003M03 |
239 |
10144 |
6632 |
2003M04 |
292 |
12149 |
8272 |
2003M05 |
290 |
11297 |
8093 |
2003M06 |
354 |
12563 |
9113 |
2003M07 |
401 |
12644 |
9135 |
2003M08 |
416 |
11737 |
8052 |
2003M09 |
454 |
11420 |
7678 |
2003M10 |
501 |
11694 |
7543 |
2003M11 |
495 |
10069 |
6666 |
2003M12 |
426 |
8577 |
5467 |
2004M01 |
488 |
9973 |
6555 |
2004M02 |
521 |
10770 |
6943 |
2004M03 |
786 |
13700 |
8879 |
2004M04 |
1046 |
15930 |
10650 |
2004M05 |
1323 |
17536 |
11526 |
2004M06 |
1275 |
16847 |
10828 |
2004M07 |
1368 |
17610 |
11042 |
2004M08 |
1369 |
16366 |
10203 |
2004M09 |
1328 |
15507 |
9455 |
Return to text
Figure 6B: Purchase Applications by Credit Score (High Credit Scores)
Source: Estimates based on Optimal Blue data, and does not contain lender or customer identities.
|
711-740 |
741-770 |
771-790 |
>790 |
2003M01 |
4619 |
5584 |
4904 |
4535 |
2003M02 |
5845 |
6911 |
5971 |
5936 |
2003M03 |
6351 |
7536 |
6560 |
6757 |
2003M04 |
8331 |
9898 |
8799 |
8989 |
2003M05 |
8118 |
9561 |
8297 |
8627 |
2003M06 |
9152 |
10858 |
9338 |
9317 |
2003M07 |
8930 |
10462 |
8905 |
9017 |
2003M08 |
7807 |
9103 |
7818 |
7598 |
2003M09 |
7405 |
8485 |
7173 |
6917 |
2003M10 |
7632 |
8401 |
7436 |
7168 |
2003M11 |
6410 |
6973 |
5897 |
6018 |
2003M12 |
5196 |
5844 |
4678 |
4623 |
2004M01 |
6469 |
7296 |
5923 |
5763 |
2004M02 |
6554 |
7358 |
6356 |
6236 |
2004M03 |
8162 |
8934 |
7644 |
8004 |
2004M04 |
10011 |
10931 |
9646 |
10054 |
2004M05 |
11053 |
12024 |
10555 |
11321 |
2004M06 |
10249 |
11407 |
9854 |
10288 |
2004M07 |
10466 |
11396 |
9725 |
10334 |
2004M08 |
9365 |
10357 |
8957 |
9455 |
2004M09 |
8604 |
9539 |
8350 |
8806 |
Return to text