Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2015-017

Crowding Out Effects of Refinancing on New Purchase Mortgages

Accessible version of figures


Figure 1A: Purchase Applications and Originations

Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data and authors' estimates.

  Purchase applications Purchase applications (estimated) Purchase originations Purchase originations (estimated)
2003M01 583722 583722 334991 334991
2003M02 587190 587190 337319 337319
2003M03 708423 708423 413158 413158
2003M04 756071 756071 449414 449414
2003M05 758016 758016 499684 499684
2003M06 766810 766810 531360 531360
2003M07 816802 816802 550684 550684
2003M08 733865 733865 566566 566566
2003M09 708117 708117 525490 525490
2003M10 706606 706606 516745 516745
2003M11 556520 556520 408900 408900
2003M12 542238 542238 461981 461981
2004M01 642194 642194 337530 337530
2004M02 709793 709793 369992 369992
2004M03 938235 938235 510085 510085
2004M04 933620 933620 555456 555456
2004M05 900510 900510 576668 576668
2004M06 965895 965895 675316 675316
2004M07 899383 899383 626248 626248
2004M08 905086 905086 620096 620096
2004M09 818567 818567 559509 559509
2004M10 794578 794578 543615 543615
2004M11 740201 740201 516546 516546
2004M12 662828 662828 545875 545875
2005M01 750831 750831 394911 394911
2005M02 848239 848239 427402 427402
2005M03 1094192 1094192 598999 598999
2005M04 1068717 1068717 615178 615178
2005M05 1106705 1106705 668462 668462
2005M06 1168463 1168463 766384 766384
2005M07 1031367 1031367 696205 696205
2005M08 1154779 1154779 760201 760201
2005M09 1001431 1001431 687713 687713
2005M10 936380 936380 607411 607411
2005M11 861508 861508 584936 584936
2005M12 737650 737650 582699 582699
2006M01 813207 813207 423341 423341
2006M02 851848 851848 456007 456007
2006M03 1078076 1078076 627104 627104
2006M04 951225 951225 560227 560227
2006M05 1061779 1061779 660787 660787
2006M06 1031592 1031592 712837 712837
2006M07 896769 896769 592133 592133
2006M08 982987 982987 650188 650188
2006M09 812368 812368 556139 556139
2006M10 832095 832095 527446 527446
2006M11 736244 736244 491125 491125
2006M12 607272 607272 482988 482988
2007M01 699012 699012 348777 348777
2007M02 682815 682815 361354 361354
2007M03 800686 800686 450065 450065
2007M04 706803 706803 421005 421005
2007M05 739852 739852 468846 468846
2007M06 688722 688722 486944 486944
2007M07 652950 652950 441795 441795
2007M08 664471 664471 453664 453664
2007M09 470533 470533 326901 326901
2007M10 512560 512560 330108 330108
2007M11 420130 420130 299771 299771
2007M12 327691 327691 274037 274037
2008M01 438422 438422 206478 206478
2008M02 445263 445263 230724 230724
2008M03 487219 487219 266230 266230
2008M04 503606 503606 281168 281168
2008M05 480723 480723 311057 311057
2008M06 458879 458879 321371 321371
2008M07 461746 461746 314277 314277
2008M08 407134 407134 296043 296043
2008M09 398176 398176 272560 272560
2008M10 332870 332870 252066 252066
2008M11 264856 264856 183761 183761
2008M12 255914 255914 202965 202965
2009M01 296237 296237 139351 139351
2009M02 309503 309503 155120 155120
2009M03 380924 380924 200408 200408
2009M04 400909 400909 211477 211477
2009M05 379687 379687 233256 233256
2009M06 414041 414041 282803 282803
2009M07 405849 405849 292419 292419
2009M08 390955 390955 262912 262912
2009M09 391747 391747 258261 258261
2009M10 374035 374035 274879 274879
2009M11 263544 263544 261748 261748
2009M12 241086 241086 220305 220305
2010M01 274232 274232 141432 141432
2010M02 329387 329387 153344 153344
2010M03 448114 448114 231703 231703
2010M04 461449 461449 264936 264936
2010M05 348364 348364 279663 279663
2010M06 323438 323438 326766 326766
2010M07 298115 298115 197654 197654
2010M08 305406 305406 201229 201229
2010M09 279927 279927 197760 197760
2010M10 261961 261961 181241 181241
2010M11 244854 244854 174472 174472
2010M12 213717 213717 196390 196390
2011M01 253577 253577 137390 137390
2011M02 277432 277432 140229 140229
2011M03 379494 379494 198552 198552
2011M04 333833 333833 203525 203525
2011M05 349071 349071 222712 222712
2011M06 356257 356257 255580 255580
2011M07 319352 319352 227660 227660
2011M08 344308 344308 243056 243056
2011M09 291436 291436 216837 216837
2011M10 279341 279341 195551 195551
2011M11 260347 260347 187610 187610
2011M12 222281 222281 201459 201459
2012M01 290650 290650 146438 146438
2012M02 330333 330333 163137 163137
2012M03 395918 395918 215540 215540
2012M04 389867 389867 223574 223574
2012M05 406851 406851 263958 263958
2012M06 375981 375981 278502 278502
2012M07 369881 369881 258835 258835
2012M08 370712 370712 279462 279462
2012M09 309005 309005 227082 227082
2012M10 341608 341608 240930 240930
2012M11 284456 284456 225901 225901
2012M12 230811 230811 219722 219722
2013M01 326121 326121 172952 172952
2013M02 347675 347675 175418 175418
2013M03 414641 414641 233378 233378
2013M04 455861 455861 261507 261507
2013M05 459501 459501 306964 306964
2013M06 414188 414188 310982 310982
2013M07 424101 424101 327410 327410
2013M08 378583 378583 322615 322615
2013M09 323759 323759 269074 269074
2013M10   330416.495781517 262781 262781
2013M11   258611.000246844 229238 229238
2013M12   206643.604520746 239249 239249
2014M01   275200.520183165   151277.924754867
2014M02   284416.691697093   151218.104628807
2014M03   333114.743232243   176528.660028872
2014M04   371655.427851047   202524.267217695
2014M05   368466.575432412   235147.621469758
2014M06   339131.296794504   252811.210675883
2014M07   339683.053648571   243846.34039687
2014M08   305156.44118071   232231.917491008
2014M09   291963.210829607   217318.530620034

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Figure 1B: Refinance Applications and Originations

Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data and authors' estimates.

  Refinance applications Refinance applications (estimated) Refinance originations Refinance originations (estimated)
2003M01 2061818 2061818 1205747 1205747
2003M02 1935396 1935396 1179886 1179886
2003M03 2660231 2660231 1391326 1391326
2003M04 2198835 2198835 1595116 1595116
2003M05 2642281 2642281 1424691 1424691
2003M06 3027102 3027102 1628068 1628068
2003M07 2478605 2478605 1877742 1877742
2003M08 1468658 1468658 1620651 1620651
2003M09 1340031 1340031 1133530 1133530
2003M10 1384533 1384533 838327 838327
2003M11 1084148 1084148 602304 602304
2003M12 1064635 1064635 627364 627364
2004M01 1406374 1406374 498658 498658
2004M02 1437339 1437339 648102 648102
2004M03 2034980 2034980 888103 888103
2004M04 1517079 1517079 989964 989964
2004M05 1158842 1158842 737233 737233
2004M06 1173626 1173626 600605 600605
2004M07 1149272 1149272 470549 470549
2004M08 1248028 1248028 514640 514640
2004M09 1248808 1248808 503932 503932
2004M10 1263130 1263130 552629 552629
2004M11 1236880 1236880 597890 597890
2004M12 1113401 1113401 588775 588775
2005M01 1257834 1257834 479279 479279
2005M02 1303581 1303581 512262 512262
2005M03 1410894 1410894 650096 650096
2005M04 1264322 1264322 550596 550596
2005M05 1308012 1308012 554159 554159
2005M06 1529529 1529529 616497 616497
2005M07 1353515 1353515 639308 639308
2005M08 1517781 1517781 734018 734018
2005M09 1361053 1361053 623062 623062
2005M10 1316111 1316111 637480 637480
2005M11 1204397 1204397 579185 579185
2005M12 1055746 1055746 530689 530689
2006M01 1240353 1240353 450720 450720
2006M02 1124302 1124302 470822 470822
2006M03 1322246 1322246 557069 557069
2006M04 1127839 1127839 484486 484486
2006M05 1155489 1155489 531911 531911
2006M06 1162608 1162608 508105 508105
2006M07 1041888 1041888 465856 465856
2006M08 1228498 1228498 528052 528052
2006M09 1128948 1128948 489727 489727
2006M10 1243879 1243879 557421 557421
2006M11 1154120 1154120 506591 506591
2006M12 975459 975459 540482 540482
2007M01 1147650 1147650 472258 472258
2007M02 1006621 1006621 428871 428871
2007M03 1186660 1186660 483487 483487
2007M04 1050807 1050807 474605 474605
2007M05 1066273 1066273 477200 477200
2007M06 955190 955190 418796 418796
2007M07 922283 922283 380655 380655
2007M08 954678 954678 368962 368962
2007M09 748624 748624 293341 293341
2007M10 857288 857288 355001 355001
2007M11 768702 768702 317040 317040
2007M12 634239 634239 347659 347659
2008M01 1171649 1171649 324423 324423
2008M02 987543 987543 498498 498498
2008M03 857506 857506 470038 470038
2008M04 746455 746455 429002 429002
2008M05 623583 623583 321033 321033
2008M06 481300 481300 269508 269508
2008M07 487671 487671 214400 214400
2008M08 403650 403650 182617 182617
2008M09 529214 529214 176884 176884
2008M10 439252 439252 222290 222290
2008M11 415304 415304 144848 144848
2008M12 1137979 1137979 237812 237812
2009M01 1408349 1408349 463241 463241
2009M02 824690 824690 592968 592968
2009M03 1233879 1233879 617071 617071
2009M04 1328043 1328043 618790 618790
2009M05 885326 885326 649150 649150
2009M06 512784 512784 627440 627440
2009M07 544479 544479 463955 463955
2009M08 519538 519538 336873 336873
2009M09 629970 629970 306191 306191
2009M10 713958 713958 339539 339539
2009M11 607910 607910 363608 363608
2009M12 545228 545228 393252 393252
2010M01 454165 454165 313872 313872
2010M02 503469 503469 260173 260173
2010M03 592371 592371 319869 319869
2010M04 464267 464267 288426 288426
2010M05 549379 549379 239933 239933
2010M06 754666 754666 297531 297531
2010M07 952850 952850 366551 366551
2010M08 1131759 1131759 506854 506854
2010M09 980191 980191 561342 561342
2010M10 993366 993366 604452 604452
2010M11 802240 802240 627236 627236
2010M12 475934 475934 582364 582364
2011M01 471377 471377 434675 434675
2011M02 403438 403438 319783 319783
2011M03 518009 518009 301109 301109
2011M04 402687 402687 253096 253096
2011M05 487542 487542 231018 231018
2011M06 564477 564477 261855 261855
2011M07 498691 498691 269957 269957
2011M08 1014035 1014035 332228 332228
2011M09 884525 884525 431604 431604
2011M10 816051 816051 504409 504409
2011M11 691133 691133 506491 506491
2011M12 668803 668803 483465 483465
2012M01 888148 888148 444006 444006
2012M02 914346 914346 510583 510583
2012M03 844193 844193 543703 543703
2012M04 790411 790411 498096 498096
2012M05 914107 914107 493766 493766
2012M06 1013714 1013714 496155 496155
2012M07 1060664 1060664 541451 541451
2012M08 1013614 1013614 632286 632286
2012M09 907626 907626 570738 570738
2012M10 1097999 1097999 682577 682577
2012M11 896458 896458 617901 617901
2012M12 763190 763190 638818 638818
2013M01 923964 923964 637648 637648
2013M02 790576 790576 584380 584380
2013M03 848708 848708 591910 591910
2013M04 928786 928786 573729 573729
2013M05 839366 839366 556985 556985
2013M06 581268 581268 489728 489728
2013M07 481207 481207 447943 447943
2013M08 415462 415462 342438 342438
2013M09 359723 359723 254320 254320
2013M10   471325.158130548 231739 231739
2013M11   363591.694378082 208695 208695
2013M12   285612.956660267 211083 211083
2014M01   347602.673771305   198457.505813144
2014M02   319733.149990747   173342.779420554
2014M03   308806.666602142   168891.50282222
2014M04   294959.031708691   169881.84886806
2014M05   300937.258435716   162347.22992409
2014M06   287282.0208942   157063.481749918
2014M07   300238.706547521   155816.263437897
2014M08   289502.107730501   154495.53930246
2014M09   284669.652230433   152906.610137216

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Figure 2A: GSE Purchase Originations by Credit Score (Low Credit Scores)

Source: Authors' estimates from Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) and LPS / Black Knight data.

  <=620 621-680 681-710
2003M01 15595 52638 45136
2003M02 13984 47911 41236
2003M03 13619 46580 39469
2003M04 12671 45936 40645
2003M05 13282 47417 41234
2003M06 12230 45160 39998
2003M07 12647 48171 42803
2003M08 12566 48922 43396
2003M09 13326 50891 44622
2003M10 13236 53045 45931
2003M11 11498 46392 40407
2003M12 11664 49949 43959
2004M01 11693 50660 43769
2004M02 11339 51220 45566
2004M03 11999 54324 47598
2004M04 11792 54228 48769
2004M05 11547 49932 43897
2004M06 12664 54180 47189
2004M07 12883 54662 46934
2004M08 12938 52892 45966
2004M09 12855 51833 45408
2004M10 12839 52571 44735
2004M11 13074 53169 45055
2004M12 12507 54211 45933
2005M01 12234 53717 46834
2005M02 12410 52664 45229
2005M03 12708 54134 47884
2005M04 12375 55132 49691
2005M05 11838 56393 51613
2005M06 12244 58248 53593
2005M07 11357 54409 50886
2005M08 11463 56900 53936
2005M09 11590 55273 54008
2005M10 11140 51831 49464
2005M11 11892 54204 53297
2005M12 11048 56671 53850
2006M01 13285 54921 52294
2006M02 12346 53213 49952
2006M03 13044 54697 51551
2006M04 11637 49168 45771
2006M05 12808 50799 47739
2006M06 12332 50683 47192
2006M07 11249 45449 41745
2006M08 12620 49262 44955
2006M09 12404 46444 43505
2006M10 11510 45867 43213
2006M11 10790 45322 43306
2006M12 10909 45798 43275
2007M01 12226 44983 41375
2007M02 12566 46490 41462
2007M03 14143 47235 40071
2007M04 14774 46791 38155
2007M05 14752 46747 37866
2007M06 13280 43850 35956
2007M07 12437 41915 35251
2007M08 12339 42456 35642
2007M09 9576 33254 28921
2007M10 10399 36286 30834
2007M11 8328 34457 31006
2007M12 6252 32287 29117
2008M01 7067 29070 29791
2008M02 5278 27645 30368
2008M03 3894 20883 24803
2008M04 2539 16295 22265
2008M05 1943 13630 19221
2008M06 1512 11531 17350
2008M07 1297 10531 16435
2008M08 985 9363 14524
2008M09 811 7911 12834
2008M10 834 7733 13211
2008M11 702 6345 10482
2008M12 644 6248 10391
2009M01 493 4480 8824
2009M02 395 4197 8267
2009M03 456 3758 7715
2009M04 389 3579 7576
2009M05 227 3299 7253
2009M06 258 3279 7381
2009M07 333 3452 7614
2009M08 284 3222 6716
2009M09 240 3271 7089
2009M10 237 3505 7360
2009M11 209 3541 7518
2009M12 189 3642 7177
2010M01 127 3090 6300
2010M02 36 3060 6015
2010M03 51 3243 6675
2010M04 46 3641 6953
2010M05 43 3353 6938
2010M06 35 3841 7592
2010M07 27 2758 5611
2010M08 28 2580 5651
2010M09 25 2491 5646
2010M10 16 2307 5370
2010M11 31 2499 5834
2010M12 20 2801 6402
2011M01 15 3038 6482
2011M02 12 3009 6395
2011M03 43 3293 6547
2011M04 26 3194 6257
2011M05 27 3140 6192
2011M06 35 3564 6717
2011M07 18 3593 6615
2011M08 21 3749 7291
2011M09 35 3684 6990
2011M10 24 3512 6770
2011M11 29 3517 6917
2011M12 23 3541 7249
2012M01 33 3894 7362
2012M02 33 3940 7822
2012M03 22 3822 7906
2012M04 28 3783 7935
2012M05 28 4129 8383
2012M06 28 4073 8634
2012M07 38 3703 7743
2012M08 28 3931 8061
2012M09 16 3984 8286
2012M10 32 4290 8859
2012M11 29 4227 9239
2012M12 32 4431 9316
2013M01 32 4955 10378
2013M02 31 5094 10649
2013M03 32 5252 11068
2013M04 40 5648 11562
2013M05 35 5753 12190
2013M06 30 5461 11639
2013M07 28 6385 13280
2013M08 34 6837 13623
2013M09 28 6582 13443
2013M10 41 7205 14124
2013M11 35 6890 13031
2013M12 39 7395 14003
2014M01 42 6324 11930
2014M02 43 6416 10939
2014M03 52 5691 9830
2014M04 36 6574 11480
2014M05 43 6875 11540
2014M06 41 7522 11726
2014M07 49 7925 11882
2014M08 51 7545 11120
2014M09 46 7370 11700

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Figure 2B: GSE Purchase Originations by Credit Score (High Credit Scores)

Source: Authors' estimates from Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) and LPS / Black Knight data.

  711-740 741-770 771-790 >790
2003M01 52200 66126 47205 28845
2003M02 48323 60446 44003 27356
2003M03 46028 57584 41155 24850
2003M04 47647 60053 43253 25762
2003M05 48519 60971 43150 25688
2003M06 46840 59526 42417 24952
2003M07 50077 64481 45406 26380
2003M08 50451 64624 45641 26758
2003M09 51167 64470 45614 27432
2003M10 52387 65517 45147 26133
2003M11 44386 56230 39310 22758
2003M12 50642 63530 45250 26201
2004M01 50192 64998 45099 26130
2004M02 51368 65532 46839 27687
2004M03 54231 68616 49501 29830
2004M04 55470 71758 52272 31758
2004M05 50890 65676 47848 29236
2004M06 53944 68624 49785 31082
2004M07 53723 67161 49183 30713
2004M08 52485 65211 47875 31140
2004M09 52215 65584 48423 31652
2004M10 52166 66438 49180 34431
2004M11 52140 65170 48543 36189
2004M12 52322 65527 50167 39965
2005M01 52701 64908 50342 41413
2005M02 51770 63027 48495 41770
2005M03 54336 66589 51151 44958
2005M04 56147 69716 54586 49800
2005M05 57396 70165 55583 50603
2005M06 60491 72721 57405 53314
2005M07 57643 71081 55947 51853
2005M08 61436 74486 58756 55111
2005M09 61581 73596 58960 54930
2005M10 56884 68313 53626 51465
2005M11 60067 72450 56001 53649
2005M12 61856 73589 55718 51936
2006M01 59122 68490 52885 49781
2006M02 54829 65958 50508 46686
2006M03 57588 67131 52470 49822
2006M04 50585 59449 45409 43405
2006M05 52653 61873 47667 45384
2006M06 50959 59985 46130 44324
2006M07 45127 52485 39433 39389
2006M08 49320 56987 43141 42194
2006M09 46591 53462 40701 39891
2006M10 46174 54040 40539 40290
2006M11 45078 51593 38580 37897
2006M12 46974 53895 40680 39918
2007M01 44710 50995 38148 38448
2007M02 43564 49910 37037 36147
2007M03 43021 48504 36411 36704
2007M04 39921 44626 33597 33305
2007M05 39295 43655 32589 32655
2007M06 38492 42492 31982 32337
2007M07 37796 42315 32694 32829
2007M08 37635 42789 33022 32899
2007M09 29733 33598 25759 25064
2007M10 32499 36555 29409 29048
2007M11 31670 36346 29143 29216
2007M12 31055 36248 28571 29069
2008M01 32167 37168 29460 29893
2008M02 31771 38405 30830 30800
2008M03 26896 32456 26749 27726
2008M04 26333 31964 27525 28415
2008M05 24315 30325 25923 27988
2008M06 21714 27630 24720 25392
2008M07 21137 27448 24456 25765
2008M08 19418 25346 23111 24614
2008M09 17386 22825 21169 22719
2008M10 18359 25043 23169 24596
2008M11 13505 19345 17611 18653
2008M12 15040 21725 20785 22306
2009M01 13322 19806 20073 21979
2009M02 13140 20520 19963 22618
2009M03 12623 19192 19586 21740
2009M04 12445 19718 19573 22769
2009M05 12204 19252 19857 22558
2009M06 12552 20102 20435 23508
2009M07 13132 20838 21146 24147
2009M08 11988 19144 19917 22374
2009M09 11632 19519 20086 23237
2009M10 12435 20190 20982 24358
2009M11 12084 20266 20499 23815
2009M12 11931 19162 20676 24343
2010M01 10670 17233 18336 21529
2010M02 9858 17041 17630 20615
2010M03 11245 18695 20462 23798
2010M04 11596 19693 21300 25823
2010M05 11040 18225 20196 24157
2010M06 12019 19739 21627 26223
2010M07 8646 14457 16524 20867
2010M08 8787 14926 16983 21531
2010M09 9112 15148 17220 21499
2010M10 8696 14328 16558 20899
2010M11 9387 15536 17610 22222
2010M12 10996 18731 20991 26192
2011M01 10808 17838 19936 24475
2011M02 10037 16887 19006 22552
2011M03 10452 17228 19245 23471
2011M04 9804 16066 17818 21741
2011M05 9614 15596 16695 20483
2011M06 10675 17335 18493 22382
2011M07 9946 16414 17683 21133
2011M08 11211 18364 19825 23929
2011M09 11169 18733 20101 24569
2011M10 10695 17762 19620 23808
2011M11 11150 18610 20467 25057
2011M12 11738 20078 21889 26750
2012M01 11552 19653 20928 25777
2012M02 12336 20980 21723 27467
2012M03 12836 21004 22380 28274
2012M04 12859 21234 22953 28701
2012M05 13439 22652 24140 29578
2012M06 13869 22881 24620 30110
2012M07 12687 21340 23120 28345
2012M08 13190 22442 24131 28521
2012M09 13432 22016 23735 28631
2012M10 14133 24234 25574 30516
2012M11 14090 24299 25122 29716
2012M12 14978 25129 25943 30863
2013M01 15872 27056 28094 33236
2013M02 16279 27543 28650 33639
2013M03 16894 28819 28850 33740
2013M04 17778 30130 30500 35008
2013M05 19286 31075 30797 36574
2013M06 17743 29461 29516 34065
2013M07 20759 32892 32322 37239
2013M08 20425 32138 30926 35335
2013M09 19703 31042 29867 33515
2013M10 20972 31986 30271 34647
2013M11 19218 28999 27924 31782
2013M12 20414 30552 29915 34566
2014M01 17023 24661 23729 27881
2014M02 15882 22656 22237 25604
2014M03 13464 19629 19435 22515
2014M04 15719 22540 21477 25832
2014M05 15548 22715 21770 26021
2014M06 15870 23157 22336 26519
2014M07 16106 23721 22849 27720
2014M08 15343 22694 21995 27465
2014M09 16080 23835 22538 28827

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Figure 3: 10th-Percentile Credit Scores on GSE Originations

Source: Calculations from LPS / Black Knight data.

  Purchase originations Refinance originations
2003M01 640 651
2003M02 642 652
2003M03 645 652
2003M04 645 652
2003M05 647 649
2003M06 649 655
2003M07 649 657
2003M08 648 651
2003M09 645 643
2003M10 644 637
2003M11 644 634
2003M12 643 633
2004M01 643 636
2004M02 644 641
2004M03 644 643
2004M04 646 647
2004M05 647 640
2004M06 646 633
2004M07 646 631
2004M08 646 631
2004M09 645 633
2004M10 645 635
2004M11 645 636
2004M12 644 635
2005M01 645 635
2005M02 644 638
2005M03 645 639
2005M04 647 635
2005M05 650 637
2005M06 650 640
2005M07 652 643
2005M08 652 641
2005M09 651 640
2005M10 648 638
2005M11 648 636
2005M12 645 633
2006M01 645 633
2006M02 644 634
2006M03 645 633
2006M04 646 634
2006M05 647 633
2006M06 649 633
2006M07 647 633
2006M08 644 631
2006M09 643 632
2006M10 642 633
2006M11 641 633
2006M12 640 635
2007M01 640 636
2007M02 638 635
2007M03 637 635
2007M04 635 634
2007M05 637 632
2007M06 639 629
2007M07 640 627
2007M08 637 624
2007M09 636 625
2007M10 637 624
2007M11 640 625
2007M12 642 631
2008M01 647 639
2008M02 653 659
2008M03 660 656
2008M04 671 661
2008M05 677 663
2008M06 681 662
2008M07 683 660
2008M08 682 660
2008M09 683 665
2008M10 685 674
2008M11 686 669
2008M12 689 688
2009M01 695 706
2009M02 699 710
2009M03 700 709
2009M04 702 711
2009M05 704 709
2009M06 705 704
2009M07 704 698
2009M08 703 692
2009M09 702 690
2009M10 702 691
2009M11 703 690
2009M12 702 688
2010M01 702 686
2010M02 703 683
2010M03 703 682
2010M04 704 682
2010M05 704 684
2010M06 704 687
2010M07 703 693
2010M08 704 697
2010M09 705 699
2010M10 704 699
2010M11 706 699
2010M12 705 697
2011M01 703 691
2011M02 702 686
2011M03 701 682
2011M04 701 677
2011M05 700 676
2011M06 702 680
2011M07 700 676
2011M08 700 679
2011M09 701 693
2011M10 701 698
2011M11 702 699
2011M12 701 695
2012M01 701 688
2012M02 702 686
2012M03 702 683
2012M04 703 673
2012M05 703 664
2012M06 704 673
2012M07 704 679
2012M08 702 681
2012M09 701 680
2012M10 701 678
2012M11 702 679
2012M12 699 678
2013M01 699 675
2013M02 699 669
2013M03 700 669
2013M04 701 666
2013M05 700 667
2013M06 700 668
2013M07 699 664
2013M08 696 654
2013M09 695 648
2013M10 693 648
2013M11 694 649
2013M12 692 649
2014M01 691 648
2014M02 690 648
2014M03 690 651
2014M04 690 651
2014M05 690 655
2014M06 689 660
2014M07 689 663
2014M08 687 661
2014M09 687 662

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Figure 4A: Refinance Applications vs Mortgage-Related Employees

Source: For mortgage employees, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); for refinance applications, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data; for fixed-rate mortgage rate, Freddie Mac and Optimal Blue (formerly LoanSifter) data; for MBS yield, Barclays.

  Refinance applications Mortgage-related employees
2003M01 2061818 413600
2003M02 1935396 421300
2003M03 2660231 423500
2003M04 2198835 432000
2003M05 2642281 446000
2003M06 3027102 452900
2003M07 2478605 464000
2003M08 1468658 465300
2003M09 1340031 465300
2003M10 1384533 461900
2003M11 1084148 457500
2003M12 1064635 454200
2004M01 1406374 448600
2004M02 1437339 454300
2004M03 2034980 462900
2004M04 1517079 468100
2004M05 1158842 471500
2004M06 1173626 473000
2004M07 1149272 470800
2004M08 1248028 472100
2004M09 1248808 470400
2004M10 1263130 473900
2004M11 1236880 473400
2004M12 1113401 473700
2005M01 1257834 473700
2005M02 1303581 479400
2005M03 1410894 481100
2005M04 1264322 480000
2005M05 1308012 479600
2005M06 1529529 489600
2005M07 1353515 493400
2005M08 1517781 496500
2005M09 1361053 497500
2005M10 1316111 504100
2005M11 1204397 502100
2005M12 1055746 500500
2006M01 1240353 498100
2006M02 1124302 504500
2006M03 1322246 503300
2006M04 1127839 500100
2006M05 1155489 497300
2006M06 1162608 497200
2006M07 1041888 495200
2006M08 1228498 493900
2006M09 1128948 495000
2006M10 1243879 495700
2006M11 1154120 490900
2006M12 975459 483600
2007M01 1147650 475500
2007M02 1006621 475700
2007M03 1186660 465800
2007M04 1050807 450800
2007M05 1066273 441600
2007M06 955190 431800
2007M07 922283 421400
2007M08 954678 391800
2007M09 748624 363500
2007M10 857288 355900
2007M11 768702 348700
2007M12 634239 339700
2008M01 1171649 332500
2008M02 987543 329100
2008M03 857506 321900
2008M04 746455 314800
2008M05 623583 314900
2008M06 481300 314300
2008M07 487671 309200
2008M08 403650 301700
2008M09 529214 302400
2008M10 439252 291700
2008M11 415304 285700
2008M12 1137979 280800
2009M01 1408349 272400
2009M02 824690 271600
2009M03 1233879 271900
2009M04 1328043 266700
2009M05 885326 267000
2009M06 512784 267100
2009M07 544479 267900
2009M08 519538 264100
2009M09 629970 262900
2009M10 713958 258800
2009M11 607910 262500
2009M12 545228 261400
2010M01 454165 258500
2010M02 503469 263600
2010M03 592371 264000
2010M04 464267 262900
2010M05 549379 263400
2010M06 754666 263800
2010M07 952850 270000
2010M08 1131759 270800
2010M09 980191 273800
2010M10 993366 278100
2010M11 802240 279500
2010M12 475934 280300
2011M01 471377 272400
2011M02 403438 272800
2011M03 518009 272100
2011M04 402687 265800
2011M05 487542 268700
2011M06 564477 265500
2011M07 498691 262600
2011M08 1014035 259400
2011M09 884525 259400
2011M10 816051 259800
2011M11 691133 261900
2011M12 668803 261300
2012M01 888148 257700
2012M02 914346 260000
2012M03 844193 262300
2012M04 790411 263300
2012M05 914107 266700
2012M06 1013714 275300
2012M07 1060664 278600
2012M08 1013614 284000
2012M09 907626 288400
2012M10 1097999 289800
2012M11 896458 293900
2012M12 763190 297600
2013M01 923964 295500
2013M02 790576 297700
2013M03 848708 301100
2013M04 928786 303700
2013M05 839366 303400
2013M06 581268 305000
2013M07 481207 305200
2013M08 415462 300400
2013M09 359723 294300
2013M10 471325.158130548 292200
2013M11 363591.694378082 290300
2013M12 285612.956660267 287400
2014M01 347602.673771305 279800
2014M02 319733.149990747 278000
2014M03 308806.666602142 273100
2014M04 294959.031708691 273500
2014M05 300937.258435716 274500
2014M06 287282.0208942 277500
2014M07 300238.706547521 280900
2014M08 289502.107730501 280800
2014M09 284669.652230433 283600

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Figure 4B: Capacity Utilization

Source: For mortgage employees, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); for refinance applications, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data; for fixed-rate mortgage rate, Freddie Mac and Optimal Blue (formerly LoanSifter) data; for MBS yield, Barclays.

The fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rate to current-coupon mortgage-backed security (MBS) yield spread declined from about 80 basis points in 2003 to about 50 basis points in 2006-2007. It then increased during 2008, reaching a high of about 120 basis points in late 2008, and then gradually decreased to about 60-70 basis points by the end of 2009. The FRM to MBS spread increased again in mid-2010, reaching a high of about 100 basis points, before declining to about 60 basis points by mid-2011. The FRM to MBS spread increased yet again in late 2011, reaching a high of about 120 basis points by mid-2012, and then gradually decreased to about 80-90 basis points during 2013-2014.

  Refinance applications per mortgage-related employee
2003M01 8.74623677658738
2003M02 8.60391931907537
2003M03 10.2945054359817
2003M04 10.0022627281534
2003M05 10.6139624005951
2003M06 11.7036843653634
2003M07 10.8010672289912
2003M08 8.23878305957809
2003M09 6.62904580399157
2003M10 5.89425764186778
2003M11 4.98298740526237
2003M12 4.63819913031651
2004M01 5.27413297682829
2004M02 5.6135786772818
2004M03 7.05483636540375
2004M04 6.6218488198403
2004M05 5.57276240519849
2004M06 5.0698792106515
2004M07 4.70128444098465
2004M08 4.79165118083515
2004M09 4.8969934203279
2004M10 4.95881282181586
2004M11 4.93959614584301
2004M12 4.6550100072595
2005M01 4.81692014369623
2005M02 4.96106571634042
2005M03 5.2498772976707
2005M04 5.11204063585244
2005M05 5.1173593896722
2005M06 5.51276813872429
2005M07 5.31633473123543
2005M08 5.55050283027658
2005M09 5.34058023050369
2005M10 5.08585107155294
2005M11 4.77019236574423
2005M12 4.30341875493751
2006M01 4.47089146051498
2006M02 4.30081697340265
2006M03 4.62764131711381
2006M04 4.43721119957957
2006M05 4.38649509492761
2006M06 4.39227389421273
2006M07 4.13591404949072
2006M08 4.41434690720114
2006M09 4.34265616920422
2006M10 4.53452198537482
2006M11 4.48679133095042
2006M12 4.10501498130199
2007M01 4.32352822002677
2007M02 4.12101413184821
2007M03 4.46114183687477
2007M04 4.43548623062845
2007M05 4.48146280540017
2007M06 4.32058826249413
2007M07 4.18968726848838
2007M08 4.38580346374077
2007M09 4.10147957236817
2007M10 4.32127176629609
2007M11 4.22832684614281
2007M12 3.82892925864788
2008M01 5.30950300104416
2008M02 5.50494056631058
2008M03 5.27857972134906
2008M04 4.89380278555331
2008M05 4.20692384285628
2008M06 3.44725525740997
2008M07 3.13433699874549
2008M08 2.75688671523308
2008M09 3.0047235773806
2008M10 2.91248783264626
2008M11 2.81130544453497
2008M12 5.37466458477122
2009M01 7.74810491281717
2009M02 6.81635162768781
2009M03 7.85531175219654
2009M04 8.65390519834845
2009M05 7.31964590740815
2009M06 5.38986738048653
2009M07 4.44370584238116
2009M08 3.87783356320588
2009M09 4.12791185901663
2009M10 4.70269204533709
2009M11 4.54016886568033
2009M12 4.23293386018026
2010M01 3.72362685053557
2010M02 3.59936656462581
2010M03 3.89877235157697
2010M04 3.58496893080194
2010M05 3.7683980164717
2010M06 4.62557623656012
2010M07 5.70162284576322
2010M08 6.91975668523206
2010M09 6.90947327918053
2010M10 6.84791383908434
2010M11 6.07365812622739
2010M12 4.47356681954197
2011M01 3.74349526125963
2011M02 3.12737754787302
2011M03 3.2880419496276
2011M04 3.0528994086347
2011M05 3.23274336310754
2011M06 3.65003218333898
2011M07 3.60508382229443
2011M08 5.61701015517188
2011M09 6.1049903224426
2011M10 6.06068841450609
2011M11 5.55057290528971
2011M12 5.09048584129926
2012M01 5.77856650668621
2012M02 6.20968151902084
2012M03 6.15833376185174
2012M04 5.92113753150379
2012M05 6.17263898172752
2012M06 6.54874054394571
2012M07 6.88034000117411
2012M08 6.82161208386912
2012M09 6.34369717401999
2012M10 6.73052652684199
2012M11 6.17753253949074
2012M12 5.43018233535948
2013M01 5.64517863212562
2013M02 5.24140132274772
2013M03 5.24875372858946
2013M04 5.52233180679267
2013M05 5.33227467571948
2013M06 4.40595824459278
2013M07 3.60350487692348
2013M08 2.99364203895929
2013M09 2.58495081496634
2013M10 2.7918763031636
2013M11 2.55606605695888
2013M12 2.19173038493952
2014M01 2.26586164647151
2014M02 2.18847160055289
2014M03 2.15301733493795
2014M04 2.09914946332612
2014M05 2.07450236174428
2014M06 2.00679184588023
2014M07 2.00766645976631
2014M08 1.97351102109333
2014M09 1.92802944272121

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Figure 5A: 10th Percentile Credit Scores on Purchase Originations vs Capacity Utilization

Source: For mortgage employees, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); for refinance applications, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data; for 10th-percentile credit scores, LPS / Black Knight data.

  Capacity utilization 10-percentile credit score on purchase originations
2009M07 4.44370584238116 704
2009M08 3.87783356320588 703
2009M09 4.12791185901663 702
2009M10 4.70269204533709 702
2009M11 4.54016886568033 703
2009M12 4.23293386018026 702
2010M01 3.72362685053557 702
2010M02 3.59936656462581 703
2010M03 3.89877235157697 703
2010M04 3.58496893080194 704
2010M05 3.7683980164717 704
2010M06 4.62557623656012 704
2010M07 5.70162284576322 703
2010M08 6.91975668523206 704
2010M09 6.90947327918053 705
2010M10 6.84791383908434 704
2010M11 6.07365812622739 706
2010M12 4.47356681954197 705
2011M01 3.74349526125963 703
2011M02 3.12737754787302 702
2011M03 3.2880419496276 701
2011M04 3.0528994086347 701
2011M05 3.23274336310754 700
2011M06 3.65003218333898 702
2011M07 3.60508382229443 700
2011M08 5.61701015517188 700
2011M09 6.1049903224426 701
2011M10 6.06068841450609 701
2011M11 5.55057290528971 702
2011M12 5.09048584129926 701
2012M01 5.77856650668621 701
2012M02 6.20968151902084 702
2012M03 6.15833376185174 702
2012M04 5.92113753150379 703
2012M05 6.17263898172752 703
2012M06 6.54874054394571 704
2012M07 6.88034000117411 704
2012M08 6.82161208386912 702
2012M09 6.34369717401999 701
2012M10 6.73052652684199 701
2012M11 6.17753253949074 702
2012M12 5.43018233535948 699
2013M01 5.64517863212562 699
2013M02 5.24140132274772 699
2013M03 5.24875372858946 700
2013M04 5.52233180679267 701
2013M05 5.33227467571948 700
2013M06 4.40595824459278 700
2013M07 3.60350487692348 699
2013M08 2.99364203895929 696
2013M09 2.58495081496634 695
2013M10 2.7918763031636 693
2013M11 2.55606605695888 694
2013M12 2.19173038493952 692
2014M01 2.26586164647151 691
2014M02 2.18847160055289 690
2014M03 2.15301733493795 690
2014M04 2.09914946332612 690
2014M05 2.07450236174428 690
2014M06 2.00679184588023 689
2014M07 2.00766645976631 689
2014M08 1.97351102109333 687
2014M09 1.92802944272121 687

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Figure 5B: 10th Percentile Credit Scores on Refinance Originations vs Capacity Utilization

Source: For mortgage employees, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); for refinance applications, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data; for 10th-percentile credit scores, LPS / Black Knight data.

  Capacity utilization 10-percentile credit score on purchase originations
2009M07 4.44370584238116 698
2009M08 3.87783356320588 692
2009M09 4.12791185901663 690
2009M10 4.70269204533709 691
2009M11 4.54016886568033 690
2009M12 4.23293386018026 688
2010M01 3.72362685053557 686
2010M02 3.59936656462581 683
2010M03 3.89877235157697 682
2010M04 3.58496893080194 682
2010M05 3.7683980164717 684
2010M06 4.62557623656012 687
2010M07 5.70162284576322 693
2010M08 6.91975668523206 697
2010M09 6.90947327918053 699
2010M10 6.84791383908434 699
2010M11 6.07365812622739 699
2010M12 4.47356681954197 697
2011M01 3.74349526125963 691
2011M02 3.12737754787302 686
2011M03 3.2880419496276 682
2011M04 3.0528994086347 677
2011M05 3.23274336310754 676
2011M06 3.65003218333898 680
2011M07 3.60508382229443 676
2011M08 5.61701015517188 679
2011M09 6.1049903224426 693
2011M10 6.06068841450609 698
2011M11 5.55057290528971 699
2011M12 5.09048584129926 695
2012M01 5.77856650668621 688
2012M02 6.20968151902084 686
2012M03 6.15833376185174 683
2012M04 5.92113753150379 673
2012M05 6.17263898172752 664
2012M06 6.54874054394571 673
2012M07 6.88034000117411 679
2012M08 6.82161208386912 681
2012M09 6.34369717401999 680
2012M10 6.73052652684199 678
2012M11 6.17753253949074 679
2012M12 5.43018233535948 678
2013M01 5.64517863212562 675
2013M02 5.24140132274772 669
2013M03 5.24875372858946 669
2013M04 5.52233180679267 666
2013M05 5.33227467571948 667
2013M06 4.40595824459278 668
2013M07 3.60350487692348 664
2013M08 2.99364203895929 654
2013M09 2.58495081496634 648
2013M10 2.7918763031636 648
2013M11 2.55606605695888 649
2013M12 2.19173038493952 649
2014M01 2.26586164647151 648
2014M02 2.18847160055289 648
2014M03 2.15301733493795 651
2014M04 2.09914946332612 651
2014M05 2.07450236174428 655
2014M06 2.00679184588023 660
2014M07 2.00766645976631 663
2014M08 1.97351102109333 661
2014M09 1.92802944272121 662

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Figure 6A: Purchase Applications by Credit Score (Low Credit Scores)

Source: Estimates based on Optimal Blue data, and does not contain lender or customer identities.

  <=620 621-680 681-710
2003M01 189 7225 4808
2003M02 192 8745 5738
2003M03 239 10144 6632
2003M04 292 12149 8272
2003M05 290 11297 8093
2003M06 354 12563 9113
2003M07 401 12644 9135
2003M08 416 11737 8052
2003M09 454 11420 7678
2003M10 501 11694 7543
2003M11 495 10069 6666
2003M12 426 8577 5467
2004M01 488 9973 6555
2004M02 521 10770 6943
2004M03 786 13700 8879
2004M04 1046 15930 10650
2004M05 1323 17536 11526
2004M06 1275 16847 10828
2004M07 1368 17610 11042
2004M08 1369 16366 10203
2004M09 1328 15507 9455

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Figure 6B: Purchase Applications by Credit Score (High Credit Scores)

Source: Estimates based on Optimal Blue data, and does not contain lender or customer identities.

  711-740 741-770 771-790 >790
2003M01 4619 5584 4904 4535
2003M02 5845 6911 5971 5936
2003M03 6351 7536 6560 6757
2003M04 8331 9898 8799 8989
2003M05 8118 9561 8297 8627
2003M06 9152 10858 9338 9317
2003M07 8930 10462 8905 9017
2003M08 7807 9103 7818 7598
2003M09 7405 8485 7173 6917
2003M10 7632 8401 7436 7168
2003M11 6410 6973 5897 6018
2003M12 5196 5844 4678 4623
2004M01 6469 7296 5923 5763
2004M02 6554 7358 6356 6236
2004M03 8162 8934 7644 8004
2004M04 10011 10931 9646 10054
2004M05 11053 12024 10555 11321
2004M06 10249 11407 9854 10288
2004M07 10466 11396 9725 10334
2004M08 9365 10357 8957 9455
2004M09 8604 9539 8350 8806

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