Figure 1: Sentiment, patent changes, and the business cycle control.
year | extended sentiment index | sentiment index | changes in extended sent. index | changes in sent. Index | granted patents | vertical line | business cycle control |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1950 | -0.7019 | ||||||
1951 | 1.0146 | 1.7165 | 0.0295 | ||||
1952 | -0.2736 | -1.2882 | -0.0161 | 0.1146 | |||
1953 | -1.6556 | -1.3820 | -0.0749 | -0.1051 | |||
1954 | -0.9408 | 0.7148 | -0.1798 | 0.0228 | |||
1955 | -0.1661 | 0.7747 | -0.1052 | 0.0441 | |||
1956 | 0.2946 | 0.4606 | 0.4307 | 0.0089 | |||
1957 | -0.3791 | -0.6736 | -0.0910 | -0.0589 | |||
1958 | 0.3056 | 0.6847 | 0.1228 | -0.0206 | |||
1959 | 0.4059 | 0.1003 | 0.0810 | 0.0172 | |||
1960 | -0.8752 | -1.2812 | -0.1053 | -0.0295 | |||
1961 | 1.0918 | 1.9670 | 0.0251 | 0.0444 | |||
1962 | 0.8911 | -0.2007 | 0.1410 | 0.0152 | |||
1963 | -0.2014 | -1.0924 | -0.1982 | 0.0054 | |||
1964 | -0.2342 | -0.0328 | 0.0365 | 0.0546 | |||
1965 | -0.4373 | -1.6356 | -0.2031 | 0.2828 | 0.0900 | ||
1966 | -0.0699 | -1.1929 | 0.3674 | 0.4427 | 0.0846 | -0.0147 | |
1967 | 0.6426 | -0.1913 | 0.7126 | 1.0016 | -0.0411 | 0.0484 | |
1968 | 2.4511 | 1.9681 | 1.8085 | 2.1594 | -0.1051 | 0.0672 | |
1969 | 2.3622 | 2.6915 | -0.0889 | 0.7234 | 0.1337 | -0.0193 | |
1970 | 0.6637 | 0.7908 | -1.6985 | -1.9006 | -0.0474 | -0.0383 | |
1971 | -0.4939 | -1.2104 | -1.1577 | -2.0012 | 0.1952 | 0.0459 | |
1972 | -0.2554 | -0.4765 | 0.2385 | 0.7339 | -0.0458 | 0.0575 | |
1973 | 0.4880 | -0.8261 | 0.7434 | -0.3496 | -0.0090 | -0.0319 | |
1974 | 0.0613 | -1.6583 | -0.4266 | -0.8322 | 0.0284 | -0.0804 | |
1975 | -1.4214 | -2.2374 | -1.4827 | -0.5792 | -0.0577 | 0.0502 | |
1976 | -1.3295 | -1.9857 | 0.0919 | 0.2517 | -0.0249 | 0.0045 | |
1977 | -0.8613 | -1.4401 | 0.4682 | 0.5457 | -0.0732 | 0.0413 | |
1978 | -1.8137 | -1.0602 | -0.9524 | 0.3799 | 0.0127 | 0.0878 | |
1979 | -0.3235 | 0.1666 | 1.4901 | 1.2268 | -0.3024 | yes | -0.0627 |
1980 | 0.4475 | 0.8517 | 0.7710 | 0.6851 | 0.2354 | yes | -0.0181 |
1981 | 1.1006 | 1.7725 | 0.6530 | 0.9208 | 0.0620 | -0.0136 | |
1982 | 1.3421 | 1.4876 | 0.2415 | -0.2849 | -0.1277 | -0.0742 | |
1983 | 1.3383 | 1.3100 | -0.0038 | -0.1776 | -0.0179 | 0.0703 | |
1984 | 0.6977 | 1.2314 | -0.6406 | -0.0786 | 0.1671 | -0.0010 | |
1985 | 0.2152 | 0.6823 | -0.4825 | -0.5491 | 0.0643 | 0.0051 | |
1986 | 0.4813 | 0.4422 | 0.2661 | -0.2401 | -0.0112 | -0.0072 | |
1987 | -0.2320 | 0.0574 | -0.7132 | -0.3848 | 0.1576 | -0.0111 | |
1988 | -0.0871 | 0.0633 | 0.1449 | 0.0059 | -0.0625 | 0.0535 | |
1989 | -0.5545 | -0.2978 | -0.4674 | -0.3610 | 0.2038 | -0.0290 | |
1990 | -0.4131 | -0.5909 | 0.1414 | -0.2932 | -0.0557 | -0.0584 | |
1991 | 0.2150 | -0.2550 | 0.6281 | 0.3359 | 0.0658 | -0.0178 | |
1992 | -0.2100 | 0.0077 | -0.4250 | 0.2627 | 0.0096 | 0.0388 | |
1993 | -0.1967 | -0.1198 | 0.0133 | -0.1275 | 0.0092 | -0.0244 | |
1994 | -0.0869 | -0.0558 | 0.1098 | 0.0640 | 0.0333 | 0.0458 | |
1995 | -0.0782 | -0.0131 | 0.0087 | 0.0427 | -0.0025 | 0.0045 | |
1996 | 0.5745 | 0.4516 | 0.6527 | 0.4647 | 0.0780 | 0.0400 | |
1997 | 0.6564 | 0.2037 | 0.0819 | -0.2479 | 0.0211 | 0.0433 | |
1998 | 0.1810 | -0.0401 | -0.4755 | -0.2439 | 0.2756 | 0.0477 | |
1999 | 0.5458 | 0.3825 | 0.3649 | 0.4227 | 0.0397 | 0.0115 | |
2000 | 0.7649 | 1.7880 | 0.2190 | 1.4054 | 0.0258 | -0.0620 | |
2001 | 1.0344 | 0.8480 | 0.2696 | -0.9400 | 0.0528 | -0.0726 | |
2002 | 0.9258 | -0.5827 | -0.1086 | -1.4307 | 0.0078 | -0.0546 | |
2003 | 0.8627 | -0.5627 | -0.0631 | 0.0200 | 0.0101 | -0.0078 | |
2004 | 0.4844 | 0.0152 | -0.3782 | 0.5779 | -0.0284 | -0.0308 | |
2005 | 0.1486 | -0.0229 | -0.3358 | -0.0381 | -0.1332 | -0.0164 | |
2006 | 0.1066 | 0.1295 | 0.1893 | 0.0017 | |||
2007 | 0.0345 | -0.0721 | -0.0997 | -0.0241 | |||
2008 | -0.2125 | -0.2471 | 0.0031 | -0.1767 | |||
2009 | -0.0171 | 0.1954 | 0.0589 | -0.0142 | |||
2010 | -0.1177 | -0.1006 | 0.2718 | -0.0068 |
Figure 2: Interaction between innovation and sentiment changes.
year | Interaction, changes in extended sent. index | Interaction, changes in sent index |
---|---|---|
1951 | 0.0506 | |
1952 | 0.0208 | |
1953 | 0.1036 | |
1954 | -0.1285 | |
1955 | -0.0815 | |
1956 | 0.1984 | |
1957 | 0.0613 | |
1958 | 0.0841 | |
1959 | 0.0081 | |
1960 | 0.1349 | |
1961 | 0.0494 | |
1962 | -0.0283 | |
1963 | 0.2165 | |
1964 | -0.0012 | |
1965 | -0.0574 | |
1966 | 0.0311 | 0.0374 |
1967 | -0.0293 | -0.0411 |
1968 | -0.1900 | -0.2269 |
1969 | -0.0119 | 0.0967 |
1970 | 0.0806 | 0.0902 |
1971 | -0.2260 | -0.3906 |
1972 | -0.0109 | -0.0336 |
1973 | -0.0067 | 0.0031 |
1974 | -0.0121 | -0.0236 |
1975 | 0.0856 | 0.0334 |
1976 | -0.0023 | -0.0063 |
1977 | -0.0343 | -0.0399 |
1978 | -0.0121 | 0.0048 |
1979 | -0.1352 | -0.1113 |
1980 | 0.0544 | 0.0484 |
1981 | 0.0405 | 0.0571 |
1982 | -0.0308 | 0.0364 |
1983 | 0.0001 | 0.0032 |
1984 | -0.1070 | -0.0131 |
1985 | -0.0310 | -0.0353 |
1986 | -0.0030 | 0.0027 |
1987 | -0.1124 | -0.0606 |
1988 | -0.0091 | -0.0004 |
1989 | -0.0952 | -0.0736 |
1990 | -0.0079 | 0.0163 |
1991 | 0.0413 | 0.0221 |
1992 | -0.0041 | 0.0025 |
1993 | 0.0001 | -0.0012 |
1994 | 0.0037 | 0.0021 |
1995 | -0.0000 | -0.0001 |
1996 | 0.0509 | 0.0362 |
1997 | 0.0017 | -0.0052 |
1998 | -0.1310 | -0.0672 |
1999 | 0.0145 | 0.0168 |
2000 | 0.0056 | 0.0362 |
2001 | 0.0142 | -0.0496 |
2002 | -0.0008 | -0.0111 |
2003 | -0.0006 | 0.0002 |
2004 | 0.0107 | -0.0164 |
2005 | 0.0447 | 0.0051 |
2006 | 0.0245 | |
2007 | 0.0072 | |
2008 | -0.0008 | |
2009 | 0.0115 | |
2010 | -0.0273 |