************************* Special Note ******************************
The November 2018 release of the FRB/US model package contains a new
version of the model, one that is significantly different than the
previous version.  Many of the modifications reduce the complexity and
scope of the model via the consolidation, aggregation or elimination
of various model variables and equations whose contribution to the
major properties and uses of FRB/US is relatively minor.

One of the major changes is the elimination of interest rates whose
values are expressed on a compounded annualized basis, that is,
interest rates who names end with an "E", such as RFFE.  As a result,
the key monetary policy instrument in FRB/US now is the conventional
measure of the federal funds rate, RFF.

For more information see (a) "Overview of the changes to the FRB/US
model," FEDS Note, November 2018, by Jean-Phillipe Laforte, and (b) in
this release the HTML pages located at
frbus_package/documentation/documentation_model_nov2018/documentation.html.
*********************************************************************

************************* Special Note 2 ****************************
In addition to reestimated equations, the January 2017 release of the
FRB/US PACKAGE contains important changes to the way the model's
equations and coefficients are are stored in the package and loaded
into EViews.  See the README_2017JAN.TXT file for more information.
*********************************************************************


The FRBUS PACKAGE is a self-contained set of programs, equation code,
data, and documentation that provides detailed information about the
structure of FRB/US and is designed to enable anyone with access to
EViews versions 7 or later to execute simulations of the FRB/US model.

I. INFORMATION ABOUT THE STRUCTURE OF FRB/US

The key resource in the package for information about the structure of
the model is the EQUATIONS HTML file in the documentation
subdirectory.  This document presents the exact form of each equation,
descriptive text for many equations and for each sectoral group of
equations, and cross-reference information that can be used to trace
the interrelationships among variables and equations.


II. GETTING STARTED WITH THE SIMULATION PROGRAMS

The documentation of the included programs assumes that the user
already has some familiarity with EViews, especially its programming
environment, the use of add-in commands, and the commands and
procedures associated with its "model" object.  The folowing four
steps are recommended before trying to run any of the programs.

(1) Because EViews can have problems with pathnames with spaces in
them, it may be best to place the package in a directory path that
does not contain blank spaces.

(2) Some of the routine tasks associated with loading FRB/US equations
and coefficients into EViews are carried out with an EViews add-in
command named READ_XML_MODEL.  The add-in code is in the ADDINS
subdirectory.  Before running any of the included programs, install
this add-in by following the instructions described below in the
ADDINS section.  This needs to be done only once.

(3) All of the programs in the PROGRAMS subdirectory use relative
pathnames to declare the locations of equations, coefficients, data,
and subroutines.  These pathnames will work properly only if the
EViews default directory is set to the PROGRAMS subdirectory.  The
current value of the default directory is shown in the status line at
the bottom of the EViews window.  One way to (re)set it is with the
"cd" command.  For example, if the FRB/US package is located in
c:/abc/frbus_package, open EViews and enter the command:

        cd c:/abc/frbus_package/programs

Alternatively, the default directory can be (re)set by checking the
"Update Default Directory" box that appears when using the File
dropdown menu to open a program.

(4) For an introduction to the design of the FRB/US simulation
programs, read the SIMULATION BASICS PDF in the documentation
subdirectory.  The PDF is organized around the six of the simulation
programs that are in the programs subdirectory.


III. ORGANIZATION OF THE FRB/US PACKAGE

The FRB/US package is organized into six subdirectories.

ADDINS

One EViews add-in command (READ_XML_MODEL) must be installed before
running any of the FRB/US simulation programs supplied in this
package.  The installation is accomplished by starting EViews and then
executing the program named regadd.prg that is located in the addins
subdirectory.

DATA

The data subdirectory contains a database named LONGBASE, which is in
EViews format and contains actual observations on all FRB/US variables
from 1968q1 to 2016q3 and projected observations on all variables from
2016q4 to roughly 150 years in the future.  For the period from 2016
to 2019, the projections of real GDP growth, core and overall PCE
price inflation, the unemployment rate, and the federal funds rate are
based on the December 2016 "Economic Projections of Federal Reserve
Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents." Simple procedures
are used to interpolate the annual SEP projections to quarterly
frequency.  Other aspects of the projections included in the database are
constructed by mechanical procedures and should not be construed as
reflecting the views of the FOMC or any of its participants.  The
mechanical procedures cause the projection to converge to an
illustrative but nonetheless arbitrary steady-state growth path.

PROGRAMS

The pathnames in the supplied programs assume that the user's default
directory is the programs subdirectory.

Four programs (EXAMPLE1, EXAMPLE2, EXAMPLE3, and EXAMPLE4) provide simple
examples of how to set up FRB/US simulations under each of its
expectations settings and its various policy options.  These programs
should be examined in conjunction with the document named SIMULATION
BASICS.

Additional programs illustrate how to execute more complex types of
simulations.  PINGS simulates IRFs for each of eight key shocks.
STOCHSIM executes a set of stochastic simulations.  OCPOLICY is an
optimal control experiment that runs a large number of simulations
to find the path for the federal funds rate that minimizes an
intertemporal losss function.  Each of these programs includes some
explanatory notes at its start.

The PLOT_RESIDS program plots the historical residuals of key
FRB/US equations.

DOCUMENTATION

The EQUATIONS HTML document presents the complete structure of every
equation in FRB/US, along with some descriptive text.  This document
contains links to several PDF files that describe some key aspects of
the model in greater detail (PAC_BASICS, VAR_EXPECTATIONS_BASICS,
PRICE_WAGE_SECTOR_083013, and LATENT_NOTE).  The PDFs can, of course,
be viewed independently of the EQUATIONS HTML file.

The SIMULATION BASICS PDF is an introduction to the design of FRB/US
simulation programs.

MCE SOLVE USERS GUIDE describes the set of EViews subroutines that are
used to run FRB/US simulations with model-consistent expectations.
These subroutines are part of the subs subdirectory.

MODS

This subdirectory contains an XML file of FRB/US equations,
coefficients, and related information.  For each expectations
variable, this file contains the separate formulas used under VAR
expectations and model-consistent expectations.  For more information,
see the SIMULATION BASICS document.

SUBS

This subdirectory contains two sets (libraries) of EViews subroutines.
For more information, see the SIMULATION BASICS document.
