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FEDS Notes

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Graduation cap on top of currency
October 15, 2014

Student Loans and Homeownership Trends

Alvaro Mezza, Kamila Sommer, and Shane Sherlund

The increases in student loan debt and delinquencies over the past few years have raised concerns about whether heavy student loan debt burdens are making it more difficult for young households to become homeowners.

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October 14, 2014

Residual Seasonality in Core Consumer Price Inflation

Ekaterina Peneva

The past 10 years have typically seen a pattern in which consumer price inflation has tended to be higher in the first half of the year than in the second half.

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Financial paperwork
October 9, 2014

The Social Discount Rate in Developing Countries

Missaka Warusawitharana

The "social discount rate" is the interest rate used in cost-benefit analyses of infrastructure and other public projects.

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A diverse set of workers from various industries
October 1, 2014

Updating the Labor Market Conditions Index

Hess Chung, Christopher Nekarda, David Ratner

Starting Monday, October 6th, we will provide updated estimates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) every month.

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A pen sits atop financial charts
September 3, 2014

Risk Transfer Across Economic Sectors Using Credit Default Swaps

Sean Campbell and Josh Gallin

Credit default swaps (CDS) play an important role in distributing risk in the global financial system.

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A small wall built by hand
August 4, 2014

Financial Stability Monitoring

Tobias Adrian, Daniel Covitz, and Nellie Liang

In a recently released New York Fed staff report, we present a forward-looking monitoring program to identify and track time-varying sources of systemic risk.

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Magnifying glass
August 1, 2014

Enhanced Financial Accounts

Josh Gallin and Paul Smith

The Federal Reserve Board has begun an ambitious and long-term effort to upgrade the Financial Accounts of the United States to provide a significantly more detailed and timely picture of financial intermediation in the United States.

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Hard hat
July 21, 2014

The Recent Decline in Long-Term Unemployment

Tomaz Cajner and David Ratner

In this FEDS Note we take a deeper look at the sizeable decline in long-term unemployment seen over the first half of 2014.

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Financial paperwork
June 30, 2014

Repurchase Agreements in the Financial Accounts of the United States

Elizabeth Holmquist and Josh Gallin

The objectives of this note are to provide an overview of how Board staff compiles repo data for the Financial Accounts, to explain recent changes to those methods and how these changes affect our understanding of the role played by repo in the financial crisis, and to describe plans for further improvements to the repo series.

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June 24, 2014

Deleveraging: Is it over and what was it?

Claudia Sahm

Anyone who has followed the commentary on consumer spending in recent years has heard a lot about household deleveraging.

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Stacks of coins
June 2, 2014

The effect of labor slack on wages: Evidence from state-level relationships

Christopher L. Smith

Over the past several years, increases in most broad measures of wages have been quite muted, which many would consider symptomatic of weak demand for labor.

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Hard hat
June 2, 2014

Using cross-state variation to assess the potential for additional improvement in measures of labor market conditions

Christopher L. Smith

While the national unemployment rate and the monthly change in payroll employment receive considerable attention among analysts seeking to assess the current state of the labor market, a broader range of labor market indicators are potentially also useful.

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Charts on a computer screen
May 22, 2014

Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions

Hess Chung, Bruce Fallick, Christopher Nekarda, David Ratner

The U.S. labor market is large and multifaceted. Often-cited indicators, such as the unemployment rate or payroll employment, measure a particular dimension of labor market activity, and it is not uncommon for different indicators to send conflicting signals about labor market conditions.

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May 21, 2014

Perspectives on the Recent Weakness in Investment

Eugenio Pinto and Stacey Tevlin

After having been a relatively bright spot early in the recovery, nonresidential private fixed investment, which in this note we refer to as business fixed investment (BFI), increased at an average annual rate of only about 4 percent in 2012 and 2013, an unusually slow pace during an expansion.

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abstract of stock market in decline
May 7, 2014

Forecasting Stock Market Crashes is Hard--Especially Future Ones: Can Option Prices Help?

Eric Engstrom

Stock market gyrations are notoriously hard to predict, and not for lack of effort by legions of investors, market commentators and academics.

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financial data on a tablet and in printouts
April 21, 2014

The Federal Debt-Limit Standoff of 2013 in the Financial Accounts of the United States

Ivan Vidangos

When there is a legislative standoff over raising the federal statutory debt limit, the Treasury Department can use its so-called "toolbox of extraordinary measures" to temporarily obtain additional room to borrow and finance the government's operations.

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scales out of balance
April 18, 2014

The Role of Financial Imbalances in Assessing the State of the Economy

David M. Arseneau and Michael Kiley

The buildup of financial imbalances may provide a signal regarding the sustainable rate of resource utilization in the economy.

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April 14, 2014

Why is Involuntary Part-Time Work Elevated?

Tomaz Cajner, Dennis Mawhirter, Christopher Nekarda, David Ratner

Despite substantial improvement in the unemployment rate and several other labor market indicators, the number of Americans involuntarily working part time (also called "part-time for economic reasons") remains unusually high nearly five years into the recovery.

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April 10, 2014

Some Implications of Knightian Uncertainty for Finance and Regulation

Doriana Ruffino

With the recession of 2008, "uncertainty" became a buzzword. Since then, economists have largely shaped how policymakers, politicians, and the general public think about uncertainty, through, among other means, models that explicitly account for uncertainty.

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April 3, 2014

The FRB/US Model: A Tool for Macroeconomic Policy Analysis

Flint Brayton, Thomas Laubach, and David Reifschneider

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Newspapers with tablet and smartphone
March 26, 2014

Using big data in finance: Example of sentiment-extraction from news articles

Nitish Sinha

There is much discussion and research in finance on using "big data" to understand market "sentiment."

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Charts on a computer screen
February 26, 2014

Estimating the Effect of Central Clearing on Credit Derivative Exposures

Sean Campbell

Central clearing of derivatives is a primary objective of the global financial reform effort emerging from the financial crisis.

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Graduation cap on top of money
February 19, 2014

A Few Thoughts on the Recent Deceleration of Student Loan Debt

Simona Hannon and Alvaro Mezza

While the amount of student loan debt outstanding has continued to rise in recent quarters, its rate of growth has slowed recently.

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Wallet with money
January 31, 2014

How Does Earnings Risk for Americans Change during Recessions?

Serdar Ozkan

Aggregate labor earnings fell more in the period from 2007 to 2009 than during any other post-war recession.

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Measuring tape
January 31, 2014

Measuring Agency MBS Market Liquidity with Transaction Data

Sean Campbell, Canlin Li, and Jay Im

Agency mortgage backed securities are fixed income securities that entitle the owner to principal and interest payments on underlying residential mortgages that are guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises or government agencies.

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Charts on a computer screen
January 6, 2014

The Rise in Equity Valuation Ratios

Missaka Warusawitharana

Recent discussions by some market participants have noted that a number of equity valuation ratios are elevated.

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Disclaimer: FEDS Notes are articles in which Board economists offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than FEDS Working Papers.

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Last update: October 15, 2014