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FEDS Notes

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Four trees represent the four seasons
May 14, 2015

Residual Seasonality in GDP

Charles E. Gilbert, Norman J. Morin, Andrew D. Paciorek, and Claudia R. Sahm

With a second year in a row of unusually weak first-quarter growth, some analysts have argued that there may be residual seasonality in the GDP data, that is, a predictable seasonal pattern remains in the published data.

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Various stock charts
May 1, 2015

Forecasts of Economic Activity in the Great Recession

Claudia R. Sahm

Forecasts by the Board staff for economic activity during the Great Recession proved to be overly optimistic on some dimensions, such as GDP, and yet were appropriately pessimistic on other dimensions, such as the GDP gap (the deviation of GDP from potential output).

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A pen sit atop charts
April 20, 2015

Defined-Contribution Pension Plans for State and Local Government Employees in the Financial Accounts of the United States

Matthew Hoops, Irina Stefanescu, and Ivan Vidangos

This note provides some background information on the DC pension plans available to state and local (S&L) government workers, briefly discusses the methodology used to construct the estimates of assets held by S&L DC pension plans, and presents the estimates currently reported in the Financial Accounts.

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Household illustration
April 6, 2015

Deleveraging and Recent Trends in Household Debt

Ivan Vidangos

After falling for almost five years, household debt (measured in dollars) has risen in each of the last seven quarters, as the primary forces exerting downward pressure on household debt in previous years (mortgage charge-offs and negative net mortgage originations) have waned, while consumer credit has been expanding at a robust pace.

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A generic line graph
March 26, 2015

The recent slowdown in high-tech equipment price declines and some implications for business investment and labor productivity

David Byrne and Eugenio Pinto

Investment in high-tech equipment spurred by rapidly falling prices has accounted for an important share of business investment and labor productivity growth since the 1970s.

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Cargo containers
March 24, 2015

The Federal Reserve's Overnight and Term Reverse Repurchase Agreement Operations in the Financial Accounts of the United States

Ralf R. Meisenzahl

This note explains how the Federal Reserve's overnight and term reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) operations are reported in the Federal Reserve's Financial Accounts of the United States (formerly known as the Flow of Funds Accounts).

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A gas pump
March 6, 2015

Do Lower Gasoline Prices Boost Confidence?

Aditya Aladangady and Claudia R. Sahm

A gallon of gasoline currently costs one third less than it did last summer.

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A hard hat
February 26, 2015

Where Are The Construction Workers?

Andrew Paciorek

The labor market for construction workers suffered a massive shock in the wake of the housing bust, as demand for new homes dried up and firms rapidly shed workers.

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A generic line graph
February 26, 2015

The Effects of Forward Guidance in Three Macro Models

Hess Chung

With the federal funds rate at its effective zero lower bound since the end of 2008, much attention has been focused on estimating the effects of "unconventional" monetary policy actions, such as large-scale asset purchases or explicit forward guidance concerning the future path of the funds rate.

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Graduation cap on top of currency
February 2, 2015

How Does Student Loan Debt Affect Light Vehicle Purchases?

Christopher Kurz and Geng Li

Light vehicle sales plummeted during the recent financial crisis and the ensuing recession.

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Tablet with charts
January 16, 2015

Relation between Levels and Changes in Lending Standards Reported by Banks in the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

William Bassett and Marcelo Rezende

This note uses bank-level answers to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) to investigate the relation between levels and changes in lending standards reported by banks. We provide evidence that banks' responses about levels and changes in standards are positively correlated, although this relationship is not clear in summary statistics. These results suggest that banks’ responses to the quarterly SLOOS questions and their annual counterparts contain independent information about their lending practices.

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Disclaimer: FEDS Notes are articles in which Board economists offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than FEDS Working Papers.

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Last update: May 14, 2015