Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?, Accessible Data
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Figure 1
Panel 1: US Real GDP
| date | US dollars, trillions | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | Black solid | black dashed | black solid | |
| 2000q1-2014q4 | Actual GDP | HP-filtered GDP | Extension of HP-Filtered GDP (using the 2007q4 growth rate) | parrallel to black dashed line, but shifted down so that 2009q2=actual data 2009q2 |
| 0:01 | 12.36 | 12.2 | ND | ND |
| 0:02 | 12.59 | 12.29 | ND | ND |
| 0:03 | 12.61 | 12.39 | ND | ND |
| 0:04 | 12.68 | 12.48 | ND | ND |
| 1:01 | 12.64 | 12.57 | ND | ND |
| 1:02 | 12.71 | 12.65 | ND | ND |
| 1:03 | 12.67 | 12.74 | ND | ND |
| 1:04 | 12.71 | 12.83 | ND | ND |
| 2:01 | 12.82 | 12.91 | ND | ND |
| 2:02 | 12.89 | 13 | ND | ND |
| 2:03 | 12.96 | 13.09 | ND | ND |
| 2:04 | 12.96 | 13.17 | ND | ND |
| 3:01 | 13.03 | 13.26 | ND | ND |
| 3:02 | 13.15 | 13.35 | ND | ND |
| 3:03 | 13.37 | 13.45 | ND | ND |
| 3:04 | 13.53 | 13.54 | ND | ND |
| 4:01 | 13.61 | 13.63 | ND | ND |
| 4:02 | 13.71 | 13.73 | ND | ND |
| 4:03 | 13.83 | 13.83 | ND | ND |
| 4:04 | 13.95 | 13.92 | ND | ND |
| 5:01 | 14.1 | 14.02 | ND | ND |
| 5:02 | 14.17 | 14.12 | ND | ND |
| 5:03 | 14.29 | 14.21 | ND | ND |
| 5:04 | 14.37 | 14.31 | ND | ND |
| 6:01 | 14.55 | 14.4 | ND | ND |
| 6:02 | 14.59 | 14.5 | ND | ND |
| 6:03 | 14.6 | 14.59 | ND | ND |
| 6:04 | 14.72 | 14.69 | ND | ND |
| 7:01 | 14.73 | 14.78 | ND | ND |
| 7:02 | 14.84 | 14.87 | ND | ND |
| 7:03 | 14.94 | 14.97 | ND | ND |
| 7:04 | 14.99 | 15.06 | 15.06 | ND |
| 8:01 | 14.89 | ND | 15.16 | ND |
| 8:02 | 14.96 | ND | 15.25 | ND |
| 8:03 | 14.89 | ND | 15.35 | ND |
| 8:04 | 14.58 | ND | 15.44 | ND |
| 9:01 | 14.38 | ND | 15.54 | ND |
| 9:02 | 14.36 | ND | 15.63 | 14.36 |
| 9:03 | 14.4 | ND | 15.73 | 14.45 |
| 9:04 | 14.54 | ND | 15.83 | 14.54 |
| 10:01 | 14.6 | ND | 15.93 | 14.63 |
| 10:02 | 14.75 | ND | 16.03 | 14.72 |
| 10:03 | 14.85 | ND | 16.13 | 14.81 |
| 10:04 | 14.94 | ND | 16.23 | 14.9 |
| 11:01 | 14.88 | ND | 16.33 | 14.99 |
| 11:02 | 14.99 | ND | 16.43 | 15.09 |
| 11:03 | 15.02 | ND | 16.53 | 15.18 |
| 11:04 | 15.19 | ND | 16.64 | 15.28 |
| 12:01 | 15.28 | ND | 16.74 | 15.37 |
| 12:02 | 15.34 | ND | 16.85 | 15.47 |
| 12:03 | 15.43 | ND | 16.95 | 15.56 |
| 12:04 | 15.43 | ND | 17.06 | 15.66 |
| 13:01 | 15.54 | ND | 17.16 | 15.76 |
| 13:02 | 15.61 | ND | 17.27 | 15.86 |
| 13:03 | 15.78 | ND | 17.38 | 15.96 |
| 13:04 | 15.92 | ND | 17.49 | 16.06 |
| 14:01 | 15.83 | ND | 17.6 | 16.16 |
| 14:02 | 16.01 | ND | 17.7 | 16.26 |
| 14:03 | 16.15 | ND | 17.82 | 16.36 |
| 14:04 | ND | ND | 17.93 | 16.46 |
Panel 2: UK Real GDP
| date | UK pounds, trillions | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | Black solid | black dashed | black solid | |
| 2000q1-2014q4 | Actual GDP | HP-filtered GDP | Extension of HP-Filtered GDP (using the 2007q4 growth rate) | parrallel to black dashed line, but shifted down so that 2009q2=actual data 2009q2 |
| 0:01 | 1.33 | 1.32 | ND | ND |
| 0:02 | 1.34 | 1.33 | ND | ND |
| 0:03 | 1.34 | 1.34 | ND | ND |
| 0:04 | 1.35 | 1.35 | ND | ND |
| 1:01 | 1.36 | 1.36 | ND | ND |
| 1:02 | 1.37 | 1.37 | ND | ND |
| 1:03 | 1.38 | 1.38 | ND | ND |
| 1:04 | 1.39 | 1.39 | ND | ND |
| 2:01 | 1.39 | 1.4 | ND | ND |
| 2:02 | 1.4 | 1.41 | ND | ND |
| 2:03 | 1.42 | 1.42 | ND | ND |
| 2:04 | 1.43 | 1.44 | ND | ND |
| 3:01 | 1.44 | 1.45 | ND | ND |
| 3:02 | 1.46 | 1.46 | ND | ND |
| 3:03 | 1.48 | 1.47 | ND | ND |
| 3:04 | 1.5 | 1.48 | ND | ND |
| 4:01 | 1.5 | 1.49 | ND | ND |
| 4:02 | 1.51 | 1.5 | ND | ND |
| 4:03 | 1.51 | 1.51 | ND | ND |
| 4:04 | 1.51 | 1.52 | ND | ND |
| 5:01 | 1.52 | 1.53 | ND | ND |
| 5:02 | 1.54 | 1.55 | ND | ND |
| 5:03 | 1.56 | 1.56 | ND | ND |
| 5:04 | 1.58 | 1.57 | ND | ND |
| 6:01 | 1.59 | 1.58 | ND | ND |
| 6:02 | 1.59 | 1.59 | ND | ND |
| 6:03 | 1.6 | 1.6 | ND | ND |
| 6:04 | 1.61 | 1.61 | ND | ND |
| 7:01 | 1.62 | 1.62 | ND | ND |
| 7:02 | 1.63 | 1.63 | ND | ND |
| 7:03 | 1.64 | 1.64 | ND | ND |
| 7:04 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.65 | ND |
| 8:01 | 1.66 | ND | 1.67 | ND |
| 8:02 | 1.65 | ND | 1.68 | ND |
| 8:03 | 1.63 | ND | 1.69 | ND |
| 8:04 | 1.59 | ND | 1.7 | ND |
| 9:01 | 1.56 | ND | 1.71 | ND |
| 9:02 | 1.56 | ND | 1.72 | 1.56 |
| 9:03 | 1.56 | ND | 1.73 | 1.57 |
| 9:04 | 1.57 | ND | 1.74 | 1.58 |
| 10:01 | 1.57 | ND | 1.76 | 1.59 |
| 10:02 | 1.59 | ND | 1.77 | 1.6 |
| 10:03 | 1.6 | ND | 1.78 | 1.61 |
| 10:04 | 1.6 | ND | 1.79 | 1.62 |
| 11:01 | 1.61 | ND | 1.8 | 1.63 |
| 11:02 | 1.61 | ND | 1.81 | 1.64 |
| 11:03 | 1.62 | ND | 1.83 | 1.65 |
| 11:04 | 1.62 | ND | 1.84 | 1.66 |
| 12:01 | 1.63 | ND | 1.85 | 1.67 |
| 12:02 | 1.62 | ND | 1.86 | 1.69 |
| 12:03 | 1.64 | ND | 1.88 | 1.7 |
| 12:04 | 1.63 | ND | 1.89 | 1.71 |
| 13:01 | 1.64 | ND | 1.9 | 1.72 |
| 13:02 | 1.65 | ND | 1.91 | 1.73 |
| 13:03 | 1.66 | ND | 1.93 | 1.74 |
| 13:04 | 1.67 | ND | 1.94 | 1.75 |
| 14:01 | 1.69 | ND | 1.95 | 1.77 |
| 14:02 | 1.7 | ND | 1.96 | 1.78 |
| 14:03 | 1.71 | ND | 1.98 | 1.79 |
| 14:04 | ND | ND | 1.99 | 1.8 |
Panel 3: Euro-Area Real GDP
| date | Euros, trillions | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | Black solid | black dashed | black solid | |
| 2000q1-2014q4 | Actual GDP | HP-filtered GDP | Extension of HP-Filtered GDP (using the 2007q4 growth rate) | parrallel to black dashed line, but shifted down so that 2009q2=actual data 2009q2 |
| 0:01 | 8.39 | 8.29 | ND | ND |
| 0:02 | 8.46 | 8.34 | ND | ND |
| 0:03 | 8.5 | 8.39 | ND | ND |
| 0:04 | 8.57 | 8.44 | ND | ND |
| 1:01 | 8.64 | 8.49 | ND | ND |
| 1:02 | 8.65 | 8.53 | ND | ND |
| 1:03 | 8.66 | 8.57 | ND | ND |
| 1:04 | 8.67 | 8.61 | ND | ND |
| 2:01 | 8.69 | 8.65 | ND | ND |
| 2:02 | 8.73 | 8.69 | ND | ND |
| 2:03 | 8.76 | 8.73 | ND | ND |
| 2:04 | 8.77 | 8.77 | ND | ND |
| 3:01 | 8.75 | 8.8 | ND | ND |
| 3:02 | 8.76 | 8.84 | ND | ND |
| 3:03 | 8.8 | 8.88 | ND | ND |
| 3:04 | 8.87 | 8.92 | ND | ND |
| 4:01 | 8.91 | 8.96 | ND | ND |
| 4:02 | 8.96 | 9.01 | ND | ND |
| 4:03 | 8.99 | 9.05 | ND | ND |
| 4:04 | 9.02 | 9.1 | ND | ND |
| 5:01 | 9.03 | 9.14 | ND | ND |
| 5:02 | 9.1 | 9.19 | ND | ND |
| 5:03 | 9.16 | 9.24 | ND | ND |
| 5:04 | 9.22 | 9.29 | ND | ND |
| 6:01 | 9.3 | 9.35 | ND | ND |
| 6:02 | 9.41 | 9.4 | ND | ND |
| 6:03 | 9.47 | 9.46 | ND | ND |
| 6:04 | 9.57 | 9.51 | ND | ND |
| 7:01 | 9.64 | 9.57 | ND | ND |
| 7:02 | 9.7 | 9.63 | ND | ND |
| 7:03 | 9.75 | 9.68 | ND | ND |
| 7:04 | 9.79 | 9.74 | ND | ND |
| 8:01 | 9.86 | 9.8 | ND | ND |
| 8:02 | 9.82 | 9.85 | 9.85 | ND |
| 8:03 | 9.76 | ND | 9.91 | ND |
| 8:04 | 9.59 | ND | 9.97 | ND |
| 9:01 | 9.31 | ND | 10.03 | ND |
| 9:02 | 9.29 | ND | 10.08 | 9.29 |
| 9:03 | 9.32 | ND | 10.14 | 9.34 |
| 9:04 | 9.36 | ND | 10.2 | 9.4 |
| 10:01 | 9.41 | ND | 10.26 | 9.45 |
| 10:02 | 9.5 | ND | 10.32 | 9.51 |
| 10:03 | 9.53 | ND | 10.38 | 9.56 |
| 10:04 | 9.58 | ND | 10.44 | 9.62 |
| 11:01 | 9.67 | ND | 10.5 | 9.67 |
| 11:02 | 9.67 | ND | 10.56 | 9.73 |
| 11:03 | 9.67 | ND | 10.62 | 9.79 |
| 11:04 | 9.64 | ND | 10.68 | 9.84 |
| 12:01 | 9.63 | ND | 10.75 | 9.9 |
| 12:02 | 9.61 | ND | 10.81 | 9.96 |
| 12:03 | 9.6 | ND | 10.87 | 10.01 |
| 12:04 | 9.55 | ND | 10.93 | 10.07 |
| 13:01 | 9.52 | ND | 11 | 10.13 |
| 13:02 | 9.55 | ND | 11.06 | 10.19 |
| 13:03 | 9.57 | ND | 11.13 | 10.25 |
| 13:04 | 9.59 | ND | 11.19 | 10.31 |
| 14:01 | 9.62 | ND | 11.26 | 10.37 |
| 14:02 | 9.63 | ND | 11.32 | 10.43 |
| 14:03 | ND | ND | 11.39 | 10.49 |
| 14:04 | ND | ND | 11.45 | 10.55 |
Panel 4: Canadian Real GDP
| date | Canadian dollars, trillions | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | Black solid | black dashed | black solid | |
| 2000q1-2014q4 | Actual GDP | HP-filtered GDP | Extension of HP-Filtered GDP (using the 2007q4 growth rate) | parrallel to black dashed line, but shifted down so that 2009q2=actual data 2009q2 |
| 0:01 | 1.3 | 1.28 | ND | ND |
| 0:02 | 1.32 | 1.29 | ND | ND |
| 0:03 | 1.33 | 1.3 | ND | ND |
| 0:04 | 1.33 | 1.31 | ND | ND |
| 1:01 | 1.34 | 1.32 | ND | ND |
| 1:02 | 1.34 | 1.33 | ND | ND |
| 1:03 | 1.34 | 1.34 | ND | ND |
| 1:04 | 1.35 | 1.35 | ND | ND |
| 2:01 | 1.36 | 1.36 | ND | ND |
| 2:02 | 1.37 | 1.37 | ND | ND |
| 2:03 | 1.39 | 1.38 | ND | ND |
| 2:04 | 1.39 | 1.39 | ND | ND |
| 3:01 | 1.4 | 1.4 | ND | ND |
| 3:02 | 1.4 | 1.41 | ND | ND |
| 3:03 | 1.41 | 1.42 | ND | ND |
| 3:04 | 1.42 | 1.43 | ND | ND |
| 4:01 | 1.43 | 1.44 | ND | ND |
| 4:02 | 1.44 | 1.45 | ND | ND |
| 4:03 | 1.46 | 1.46 | ND | ND |
| 4:04 | 1.47 | 1.47 | ND | ND |
| 5:01 | 1.48 | 1.48 | ND | ND |
| 5:02 | 1.49 | 1.49 | ND | ND |
| 5:03 | 1.5 | 1.5 | ND | ND |
| 5:04 | 1.52 | 1.51 | ND | ND |
| 6:01 | 1.53 | 1.52 | ND | ND |
| 6:02 | 1.53 | 1.52 | ND | ND |
| 6:03 | 1.54 | 1.53 | ND | ND |
| 6:04 | 1.54 | 1.54 | ND | ND |
| 7:01 | 1.55 | 1.55 | ND | ND |
| 7:02 | 1.56 | 1.56 | ND | ND |
| 7:03 | 1.57 | 1.57 | ND | ND |
| 7:04 | 1.58 | 1.58 | ND | ND |
| 8:01 | 1.58 | 1.59 | ND | ND |
| 8:02 | 1.59 | 1.59 | ND | ND |
| 8:03 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | ND |
| 8:04 | 1.58 | ND | 1.61 | ND |
| 9:01 | 1.54 | ND | 1.62 | ND |
| 9:02 | 1.53 | ND | 1.63 | 1.53 |
| 9:03 | 1.54 | ND | 1.64 | 1.54 |
| 9:04 | 1.56 | ND | 1.65 | 1.55 |
| 10:01 | 1.58 | ND | 1.66 | 1.55 |
| 10:02 | 1.59 | ND | 1.66 | 1.56 |
| 10:03 | 1.6 | ND | 1.67 | 1.57 |
| 10:04 | 1.61 | ND | 1.68 | 1.58 |
| 11:01 | 1.63 | ND | 1.69 | 1.59 |
| 11:02 | 1.62 | ND | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| 11:03 | 1.65 | ND | 1.71 | 1.6 |
| 11:04 | 1.66 | ND | 1.72 | 1.61 |
| 12:01 | 1.66 | ND | 1.73 | 1.62 |
| 12:02 | 1.67 | ND | 1.74 | 1.63 |
| 12:03 | 1.67 | ND | 1.75 | 1.64 |
| 12:04 | 1.68 | ND | 1.76 | 1.65 |
| 13:01 | 1.69 | ND | 1.77 | 1.66 |
| 13:02 | 1.7 | ND | 1.77 | 1.67 |
| 13:03 | 1.71 | ND | 1.78 | 1.67 |
| 13:04 | 1.72 | ND | 1.79 | 1.68 |
| 14:01 | 1.73 | ND | 1.8 | 1.69 |
| 14:02 | 1.74 | ND | 1.81 | 1.7 |
| 14:03 | ND | ND | 1.82 | 1.71 |
| 14:04 | ND | ND | 1.83 | 1.72 |
Figure 2: Recoveries in the Advanced Economies
| percent of pre-recession trend | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| years (pre or post recession peak); 2000 = peak year | Black line | Red line | Blue line |
| -6 years to +8 years or 1994-2008 | All recessions | Severe Recessions | Mild recessions |
| 94:01:00 | 100.33 | 100.19 | 100.16 |
| 94:02:00 | 100.2 | 100.18 | 99.85 |
| 94:03:00 | 100.13 | 99.59 | 99.86 |
| 94:04:00 | 100.07 | 99.41 | 99.74 |
| 95:01:00 | 99.81 | 99.88 | 99.85 |
| 95:02:00 | 99.95 | 99.73 | 100.08 |
| 95:03:00 | 100.08 | 99.46 | 100.24 |
| 95:04:00 | 100.3 | 99.63 | 100.34 |
| 96:01:00 | 100.27 | 100.18 | 100.57 |
| 96:02:00 | 100.53 | 100.51 | 100.83 |
| 96:03:00 | 100.37 | 99.73 | 100.84 |
| 96:04:00 | 100.48 | 100 | 101.04 |
| 97:01:00 | 100.5 | 100.51 | 101.08 |
| 97:02:00 | 100.35 | 99.82 | 101 |
| 97:03:00 | 100.4 | 100.08 | 100.99 |
| 97:04:00 | 100.58 | 100.32 | 100.54 |
| 98:01:00 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 98:02:00 | 100.04 | 99.64 | 99.61 |
| 98:03:00 | 100 | 99.19 | 99.17 |
| 98:04:00 | 100.12 | 100.37 | 99.34 |
| 99:01:00 | 100.15 | 100.22 | 99.43 |
| 99:02:00 | 100.25 | 100.1 | 99.63 |
| 99:03:00 | 100.06 | 99.91 | 99.53 |
| 99:04:00 | 100.09 | 100.41 | 99.64 |
| 0:01 | 100.69 | 100.95 | 99.3 |
| 0:02 | 98.78 | 98.71 | 98.25 |
| 0:03 | 97.42 | 97.09 | 97.36 |
| 0:04 | 97.11 | 95.59 | 97.23 |
| 1:01 | 96.42 | 93.51 | 97.1 |
| 1:02 | 96.22 | 91.15 | 96.98 |
| 1:03 | 96.12 | 90.61 | 97.07 |
| 1:04 | 95.78 | 89.89 | 96.8 |
| 2:01 | 95.59 | 90.23 | 96.43 |
| 2:02 | 95.76 | 90.14 | 96.51 |
| 2:03 | 95.6 | 89.52 | 96.52 |
| 2:04 | 95.34 | 89.47 | 96.44 |
| 3:01 | 95.22 | 89.47 | 96.22 |
| 3:02 | 95 | 89.18 | 95.94 |
| 3:03 | 94.69 | 88.81 | 95.92 |
| 3:04 | 94.99 | 88.86 | 95.65 |
| 4:01 | 94.84 | 88.93 | 95.06 |
| 4:02 | 94.61 | 88.68 | 94.53 |
| 4:03 | 94.52 | 88.52 | 94.23 |
| 4:04 | 94.28 | 88.14 | 93.53 |
| 5:01 | 94.21 | 88.3 | 93.43 |
| 5:02 | 94.25 | 88.25 | 93.33 |
| 5:03 | 94.26 | 88.35 | 92.99 |
| 5:04 | 94.16 | 89.12 | 92.92 |
| 6:01 | 93.91 | 88.61 | 92.93 |
| 6:02 | 93.68 | 88.54 | 92.81 |
| 6:03 | 93.4 | 88.18 | 92.56 |
| 6:04 | 93.32 | 88.26 | 92.46 |
| 7:01 | 92.95 | 87.54 | 92.58 |
| 7:02 | 92.92 | 87.76 | 92.38 |
| 7:03 | 92.79 | 87.38 | 92.5 |
| 7:04 | 92.68 | 87.59 | 92.24 |
| 8:01 | 92.57 | 87.72 | 91.91 |
| 8:02 | 92.33 | 87.09 | 91.63 |
| 8:03 | 92.16 | 86.98 | 91.33 |
| 8:04 | 92.04 | 87.26 | 91.24 |
GDP trend calculated as exponential function growing at the four-year average two years prior to the peak
Severe recessions are in the top 25th percent of recessions as measured by both depth and duration. Similarly, mild recessions are in the bottom 25th percentile of each category.
Figure 3: Real US GDP and HP Filtered GDP
| Indexed, 2005 = 100-output gap | Indexed, 2005 = 100 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dates | OECD data & forecast. HP filtered vinages. | |||||||||
| brown | brown - dotted | light brown | light brown - dotted | orange | orange - dotted | yellow | yellow-dotted | blue | black | |
| 2005-2013 | 2005 vintage | 2005 extended, using growth rate of the last data point of 2005 vintage | 2006 vintage | 2006 extended, using growth rate of the last data point of 2005 vintage | 2007 vintage | 2007 extended, using growth rate of the last data point of 2005 vintage | 2009 vintage | 2009 extended, using growth rate of the last data point of 2005 vintage | 2013 vintage | Real US GDP |
| 2005 | 99.86 | ND | 99.83 | ND | 99.75 | ND | 99.68 | ND | 99.33 | 100 |
| 2006 | 103.19 | ND | 102.76 | ND | 102.36 | ND | 101.74 | ND | 101.22 | 102.67 |
| 2007 | 106.57 | 106.57 | 105.69 | ND | 104.88 | ND | 103.31 | ND | 102.5 | 104.49 |
| 2008 | ND | 110.06 | 108.61 | 108.61 | 107.33 | ND | 104.39 | ND | 103.24 | 104.19 |
| 2009 | ND | 113.66 | ND | 111.6 | 109.74 | 109.74 | 105.22 | ND | 103.84 | 101.3 |
| 2010 | ND | 117.38 | ND | 114.69 | ND | 112.21 | 106.19 | ND | 104.84 | 103.86 |
| 2011 | ND | 121.22 | ND | 117.85 | ND | 114.74 | 107.31 | 107.31 | 106.38 | 105.52 |
| 2012 | ND | 125.19 | ND | 121.11 | ND | 117.32 | ND | 108.45 | 108.44 | 107.97 |
| 2013 | ND | 129.29 | ND | 124.45 | ND | 119.96 | ND | 109.59 | 110.89 | 110.37 |
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, various vintages of actual and projected. Trends are calculated by applying an HP-filter to vintages of OECD GDP series. The trend is then extrapolated toward using the growth rate impled by the last year of HP-filtered data. The level of actual GDP is indexed to 100 in 2005.
Figure 4: Potential GDP Forecasts (various vintages)
| years (pre or post recession trough); 2000 = trough year | y/y percent change | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Various Vintages of OECD GDP data | |||
| light blue line | blue line | black line | |
| -8 years to +4 years or 1992-2004 | 1-yr pre trough | trough | 3-yrs post trough |
| 1992 | 2.3 | 2.22 | 2.24 |
| 1993 | 2.29 | 2.3 | 2.32 |
| 1994 | 2.27 | 2.09 | 2.36 |
| 1995 | 2.39 | 2.16 | 2.25 |
| 1996 | 2.17 | 2.2 | 2.22 |
| 1997 | 2.28 | 2.39 | 2.09 |
| 1998 | 2.28 | 2.38 | 2.02 |
| 1999 | 2.3 | 2.21 | 1.9 |
| 2000 | 2.28 | 1.78 | 1.51 |
| 2001 | 2.26 | 1.68 | 1.53 |
| 2002 | ND | 1.82 | 1.76 |
| 2003 | ND | ND | 1.74 |
| 2004 | ND | ND | 1.89 |
Source: OECD Economic Outlook. Data are for 23 countries covering 62 recessions from 1989-2009. Lines represent the median growth rates, forecast and history, of each country/recession pair for the period closest to the pre-recession peak, recession trough, and 2 years past-trough.