Accessible Material
October 2008 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts†
Domestic Developments
[Box:] The Federal Funds Rate in the Staff Projection
Data source | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|
Real GDP | |||
Baseline | .3 | -.1 | 2.3 |
Federal funds rate held at 1½ percent | .3 | -.4 | 1.9 |
Federal funds rate cut to 0 percent | .3 | 0 | 2.5 |
Unemployment rate | |||
Baseline | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
Federal funds rate held at 1½ percent | 6.3 | 7.3 | 7.4 |
Federal funds rate cut to 0 percent | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.1 |
Core PCE inflation | |||
Baseline | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Federal funds rate held at 1½ percent | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Federal funds rate cut to 0 percent | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Note: Real gross domestic product (GDP) and core inflation measured on a Q4/Q4 basis; unemployment rate reported as the Q4 level.
Key Background Factors Underlying the Baseline Staff Projection
Note: In each panel, shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2008:Q4 except as noted.
Period | Current Greenbook | September Greenbook | Market forecast |
---|---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.45 |
2005:Q2 | 2.94 | 2.94 | 2.94 |
2005:Q3 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
2005:Q4 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
2006:Q1 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.42 |
2006:Q2 | 4.90 | 4.90 | 4.90 |
2006:Q3 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
2006:Q4 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
2007:Q1 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
2007:Q2 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
2007:Q3 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 5.20 |
2007:Q4 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
2008:Q1 | 3.17 | 3.17 | 3.17 |
2008:Q2 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.10 |
2008:Q3 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
2008:Q4 | 1.15 | 2.00 | 1.15 |
2009:Q1 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 1.05 |
2009:Q2 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.13 |
2009:Q3 | 0.50 | 2.25 | 1.36 |
2009:Q4 | 0.50 | 2.50 | 1.49 |
2010:Q1 | 0.50 | 2.75 | 1.74 |
2010:Q2 | 0.50 | 2.75 | 2.09 |
2010:Q3 | 0.75 | 3.00 | 2.56 |
2010:Q4 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.79 |
Period | Baa corporate rate: Current Greenbook |
Baa corporate rate: September Greenbook |
10-year Treasury rate: Current Greenbook |
10-year Treasury rate: September Greenbook |
---|---|---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 5.97 | 5.97 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
2005:Q2 | 5.97 | 5.97 | 4.16 | 4.16 |
2005:Q3 | 5.98 | 5.98 | 4.22 | 4.22 |
2005:Q4 | 6.34 | 6.34 | 4.49 | 4.49 |
2006:Q1 | 6.31 | 6.31 | 4.58 | 4.58 |
2006:Q2 | 6.74 | 6.74 | 5.07 | 5.07 |
2006:Q3 | 6.59 | 6.59 | 4.89 | 4.89 |
2006:Q4 | 6.28 | 6.28 | 4.63 | 4.63 |
2007:Q1 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 4.68 | 4.68 |
2007:Q2 | 6.49 | 6.49 | 4.85 | 4.85 |
2007:Q3 | 6.63 | 6.63 | 4.74 | 4.74 |
2007:Q4 | 6.51 | 6.51 | 4.27 | 4.27 |
2008:Q1 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 3.67 | 3.67 |
2008:Q2 | 6.99 | 6.99 | 3.88 | 3.88 |
2008:Q3 | 7.21 | 7.10 | 3.86 | 3.85 |
2008:Q4 | 9.05 | 6.95 | 3.75 | 3.65 |
2009:Q1 | 8.65 | 6.90 | 3.75 | 3.70 |
2009:Q2 | 8.25 | 6.80 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
2009:Q3 | 7.95 | 6.65 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
2009:Q4 | 7.65 | 6.45 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
2010:Q1 | 7.40 | 6.40 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
2010:Q2 | 7.20 | 6.30 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
2010:Q3 | 7.00 | 6.25 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
2010:Q4 | 6.80 | 6.15 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
Period | Wilshire 5000: Current Greenbook |
Wilshire 5000: September Greenbook |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
2005:Q2 | 102.05 | 102.05 |
2005:Q3 | 105.59 | 105.59 |
2005:Q4 | 107.56 | 107.56 |
2006:Q1 | 113.04 | 113.04 |
2006:Q2 | 110.41 | 110.41 |
2006:Q3 | 114.67 | 114.67 |
2006:Q4 | 122.51 | 122.51 |
2007:Q1 | 123.81 | 123.81 |
2007:Q2 | 130.70 | 130.70 |
2007:Q3 | 132.00 | 132.00 |
2007:Q4 | 127.33 | 127.33 |
2008:Q1 | 114.55 | 114.55 |
2008:Q2 | 112.33 | 112.33 |
2008:Q3 | 102.03 | 107.71 |
2008:Q4 | 84.12 | 109.81 |
2009:Q1 | 86.14 | 112.95 |
2009:Q2 | 88.20 | 116.94 |
2009:Q3 | 91.12 | 121.11 |
2009:Q4 | 94.17 | 125.41 |
2010:Q1 | 97.31 | 129.01 |
2010:Q2 | 100.53 | 132.71 |
2010:Q3 | 102.94 | 135.29 |
2010:Q4 | 105.43 | 137.91 |
Period | OFHEO purchase-only index: Current Greenbook |
OFHEO purchase-only index: September Greenbook |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
2005:Q2 | 102.39 | 102.39 |
2005:Q3 | 104.85 | 104.85 |
2005:Q4 | 107.07 | 107.07 |
2006:Q1 | 108.87 | 108.87 |
2006:Q2 | 109.88 | 109.88 |
2006:Q3 | 110.38 | 110.38 |
2006:Q4 | 111.23 | 111.23 |
2007:Q1 | 112.17 | 112.17 |
2007:Q2 | 112.70 | 112.70 |
2007:Q3 | 112.10 | 112.10 |
2007:Q4 | 110.63 | 110.63 |
2008:Q1 | 108.77 | 108.77 |
2008:Q2 | 107.29 | 107.29 |
2008:Q3 | 105.69 | 105.65 |
2008:Q4 | 103.36 | 103.75 |
2009:Q1 | 101.09 | 101.88 |
2009:Q2 | 98.86 | 100.32 |
2009:Q3 | 97.08 | 99.17 |
2009:Q4 | 95.53 | 98.42 |
2010:Q1 | 94.29 | 97.92 |
2010:Q2 | 93.63 | 97.68 |
2010:Q3 | 93.16 | 97.55 |
2010:Q4 | 92.88 | 97.55 |
Note: The projection period begins in 2008:Q3.
Period | West Texas intermediate: Current Greenbook |
West Texas intermediate: September Greenbook |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 49.68 | 49.68 |
2005:Q2 | 53.09 | 53.09 |
2005:Q3 | 63.08 | 63.08 |
2005:Q4 | 60.03 | 60.03 |
2006:Q1 | 63.34 | 63.34 |
2006:Q2 | 70.53 | 70.53 |
2006:Q3 | 70.44 | 70.44 |
2006:Q4 | 60.04 | 60.04 |
2007:Q1 | 58.02 | 58.02 |
2007:Q2 | 64.97 | 64.97 |
2007:Q3 | 75.48 | 75.48 |
2007:Q4 | 90.75 | 90.75 |
2008:Q1 | 97.91 | 97.91 |
2008:Q2 | 123.88 | 123.88 |
2008:Q3 | 118.01 | 118.18 |
2008:Q4 | 73.86 | 103.45 |
2009:Q1 | 73.13 | 104.56 |
2009:Q2 | 74.66 | 105.61 |
2009:Q3 | 76.22 | 106.25 |
2009:Q4 | 77.83 | 106.57 |
2010:Q1 | 79.42 | 106.75 |
2010:Q2 | 80.84 | 106.83 |
2010:Q3 | 82.08 | 106.86 |
2010:Q4 | 83.15 | 106.89 |
Period | Exchange Rate: Current Greenbook |
Exchange Rate: September Greenbook |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
2005:Q2 | 101.27 | 101.27 |
2005:Q3 | 102.35 | 102.35 |
2005:Q4 | 103.50 | 103.50 |
2006:Q1 | 101.95 | 101.95 |
2006:Q2 | 100.69 | 100.69 |
2006:Q3 | 100.61 | 100.61 |
2006:Q4 | 99.14 | 99.14 |
2007:Q1 | 99.09 | 99.09 |
2007:Q2 | 97.11 | 97.11 |
2007:Q3 | 95.11 | 95.12 |
2007:Q4 | 91.97 | 91.97 |
2008:Q1 | 90.05 | 90.05 |
2008:Q2 | 88.50 | 88.51 |
2008:Q3 | 90.85 | 90.93 |
2008:Q4 | 97.93 | 92.30 |
2009:Q1 | 97.39 | 91.75 |
2009:Q2 | 96.68 | 91.31 |
2009:Q3 | 95.96 | 90.84 |
2009:Q4 | 95.24 | 90.32 |
2010:Q1 | 94.39 | 89.74 |
2010:Q2 | 93.49 | 89.13 |
2010:Q3 | 92.55 | 88.50 |
2010:Q4 | 91.59 | 87.85 |
Summary of the Near-Term Outlook
Measure | 2008:Q3 | 2008:Q4 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Sept. GB |
Oct. GB |
Sept. GB |
Oct. GB |
|
Real GDP | .6 | -1.0 | 1.1 | -1.3 |
Private domestic final purchases | -1.2 | -3.5 | -2.1 | -4.4 |
Personal consumption expenditures | -.5 | -3.3 | -1.6 | -2.4 |
Residential investment | -17.6 | -19.7 | -20.0 | -24.4 |
Business fixed investment | .1 | .8 | .7 | -9.9 |
Government outlays for consumption and investment | 1.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | -1.0 |
Contribution to growth (percentage points) | ||||
Inventory investment | .6 | -.2 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
Net exports | .7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | .4 |
[Box:] Judgmental Effects of Financial Market Turmoil in the Staff Projection
Figure: Measures of Financial Turmoil
A line chart shows two series, "9-variable financial stress index (left scale)", and "index of change in bank credit standards (right scale)", from 1989 through 2008. The "9-variable financial stress index" series begins at about 102.5 in 1989, generally increases to about 108 in late 1990, and generally decreases to about 98 in 1993. It generally increases to about 116 in 1998 and 2002, generally decreases to about 100 in 2005 and 2007 and then generally increases to end at about 128 in 2008. The "index of change in bank credit standards" series begins at about 20 in 1990, increases to about 53 in 1990, generally decreases to about -20 in 1993, and generally increases to about -42 in 2000. It generally decreases to about -20 in 2005 and 2006, and then generally increases to end at about 85 in 2008.
SLOOS index | |
April survey | 76.7 |
July survey | 80.5 |
October survey | 88.0 |
Financial stress index | |
August average | 113.2 |
September average | 118.8 |
October average | 128.3 |
Date of Estimate and Data source | Methodology | Percent deviation from Q4 baseline level | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||
October Greenbook | |||||
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey | |||||
Index of survey responses | FRB/US1 | -.3 | -2.9 | -3.6 | -2.2 |
Commercial loan credit standards | VAR2 | -.2 | -1.3 | -3.1 | -4.0 |
Change in bank credit standards3 | VAR2 | -.1 | -2.0 | -4.3 | -6.2 |
Capital markets data | |||||
9-variable stress index | FRB/US2 | -.1 | -1.4 | -3.2 | -3.1 |
9-variable stress index | FRB/US1 | -.4 | -2.3 | -3.6 | -3.1 |
9-variable stress index | VAR2 | 0 | -.8 | -3.0 | -5.4 |
September Greenbook | |||||
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey | |||||
Index of survey responses | FRB/US1 | -.3 | -2.8 | -3.3 | -2.1 |
Commercial loan credit standards | VAR2 | -.1 | -.6 | -.9 | -.9 |
Change in bank credit standards3 | VAR2 | 0 | -1.2 | -2.2 | -3.1 |
Capital markets data | |||||
9-variable stress index | FRB/US2 | -.1 | -1.4 | -2.1 | -1.7 |
9-variable stress index | FRB/US1 | -.4 | -2.0 | -2.4 | -2.0 |
9-variable stress index | VAR2 | 0 | -.4 | -1.3 | -3.0 |
Memo item: Staff judgmental projection adjustments | |||||
October Greenbook | -.3 | -2.8 | -3.8 | -2.5 | |
September Greenbook | -.3 | -1.8 | -2.0 | -1.3 |
Note: Because of methodological changes, some of the September estimates shown in the table differ from those reported in the last Greenbook.
1. Stress treated as exogenous and phased out over four quarters. Return to table
2. Stress treated as endogenous and simulated as part of a system of equations. Return to table
3. Series shown as the dashed line in the chart; includes standards on both business and consumer loans. Return to table
Projections of Real GDP
Measure | 2008:H2 | 2009:H1 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP | -1.2 | -.9 | -.1 | 2.3 |
Previous | .8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.7 |
Final sales | -2.1 | -.9 | -.5 | 2.3 |
Previous | -.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.8 |
PCE | -2.9 | .4 | 1.0 | 2.4 |
Previous | -1.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
Residential investment | -22.1 | -21.0 | -15.8 | 13.4 |
Previous | -18.8 | -10.6 | -6.2 | 17.1 |
BFI | -4.7 | -12.2 | -10.9 | 4.1 |
Previous | .4 | -1.6 | -.3 | 4.9 |
Government purchases | 1.9 | 1.2 | .9 | .5 |
Previous | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | .8 |
Exports | 5.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
Previous | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.1 |
Imports | -.7 | -.7 | .9 | 4.3 |
Previous | -.5 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.9 |
Contribution to growth (percentage points) | ||||
Inventory change | 1.0 | .0 | .4 | .0 |
Previous | 1.0 | .4 | .4 | -.1 |
Net exports | .8 | .5 | .2 | -.2 |
Previous | .8 | .5 | .3 | -.1 |
Decomposition of Structural Labor Productivity
Measure | 1974-95 | 1996-2000 | 2001-06 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Structural labor productivity | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Previous | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Contributions1 | |||||||
Capital deepening | .7 | 1.4 | .7 | .6 | .5 | .2 | .3 |
Previous | .7 | 1.4 | .7 | .7 | .5 | .5 | .7 |
Multifactor productivity | .5 | .7 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Previous | .5 | .7 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Labor composition | .3 | .3 | .3 | .2 | .2 | .2 | .1 |
Memo | |||||||
Potential GDP | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
Previous | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
Note. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. For multiyear periods, the percent change is the annual average from Q4 of the year preceding the first year shown to Q4 of the last year shown.
1. Percentage points. Return to table
The Outlook for the Labor Market
Measure | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Output per hour, nonfarm business | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
Previous | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
Nonfarm private payroll employment | .9 | -1.2 | -1.4 | .7 |
Previous | .9 | -.9 | .7 | .9 |
Household survey employment | .4 | -.8 | -.5 | .8 |
Previous | .4 | -.6 | .6 | 1.0 |
Labor force participation rate1 | 66.0 | 66.0 | 65.6 | 65.4 |
Previous | 66.0 | 66.0 | 65.7 | 65.5 |
Civilian unemployment rate1 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
Previous | 4.8 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
Memo | ||||
GDP gap2 | -.2 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -4.7 |
Previous | -.2 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -1.4 |
1. Percent, average for the fourth quarter. Return to table
2. Actual less potential GDP in the fourth quarter of the year indicated as a percent of potential GDP. A negative number thus indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Return to table
Inflation Projections
Measure | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|
PCE chain-weighted price index | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Previous | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
Food and beverages | 4.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
Previous | 4.5 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 2.1 |
Energy | 19.1 | -1.0 | -2.3 | 3.3 |
Previous | 19.1 | 10.8 | 1.2 | .8 |
Excluding food and energy | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Previous | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
Consumer price index | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Previous | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
Excluding food and energy | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Previous | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
GDP chain-weighted price index | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Previous | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
ECI for compensation of private industry workers1 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
Previous | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
Compensation per hour, nonfarm business sector | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
Previous | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
Prices of core goods imports2 | 3.4 | 5.5 | -.5 | 1.5 |
Previous | 3.4 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
1. December to December. Return to table
2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table
The Long-Term Outlook
Measure | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
Civilian unemployment rate1 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 4.5 |
PCE prices, total | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Core PCE prices | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Federal funds rate1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.4 |
1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table
Alternative Scenarios
Measure and scenario | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012-13 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | H2 | |||||
Real GDP | ||||||
Greenbook extension | 1.8 | -1.2 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
More financial fallout | 1.8 | -1.6 | -2.0 | 1.0 | 4.1 | 5.4 |
More rapid financial recovery | 1.8 | -0.9 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
Fiscal stimulus | 1.8 | -1.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 4.9 |
Bigger fiscal stimulus | 1.8 | -1.2 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 5.0 |
Higher inflation | 1.8 | -1.2 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
Unemployment rate1 | ||||||
Greenbook extension | 5.3 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 4.5 |
More financial fallout | 5.3 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 5.2 |
More rapid financial recovery | 5.3 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 |
Fiscal stimulus | 5.3 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 4.5 |
Bigger fiscal stimulus | 5.3 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 4.4 |
Higher inflation | 5.3 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 5.0 |
Core PCE inflation | ||||||
Greenbook extension | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
More financial fallout | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
More rapid financial recovery | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Fiscal stimulus | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Bigger fiscal stimulus | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Higher inflation | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
Federal funds rate1 | ||||||
Greenbook extension | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.4 |
More financial fallout | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
More rapid financial recovery | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 4.8 |
Fiscal stimulus | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3.4 |
Bigger fiscal stimulus | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3.3 |
Higher inflation | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 5.8 |
1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table
Selected Greenbook Projections and 70 Percent Confidence Intervals Derived from Historical Greenbook Forecast Errors and FRB/US Simulations
Measure | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP (percent change, Q4 to Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
Greenbook forecast errors | -.1-.8 | -1.6-1.4 | .9-3.6 | … | … | … |
FRB/US stochastic simulations | -.2-.8 | -1.3-1.0 | .9-3.5 | 3.0-5.9 | 3.4-6.6 | 3.3-6.6 |
Civilian unemployment rate (percent, Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 4.5 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
Greenbook forecast errors | 6.2-6.4 | 6.6-7.8 | 6.2-8.2 | … | … | … |
FRB/US stochastic simulations | 6.1-6.5 | 6.8-7.7 | 6.7-7.8 | 5.8-7.1 | 4.8-6.1 | 3.8-5.2 |
PCE prices, total (percent change, Q4 to Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
Greenbook forecast errors | 2.5-3.0 | .6-2.2 | .4-2.5 | … | … | … |
FRB/US stochastic simulations | 2.5-3.0 | .7-2.1 | .6-2.2 | .3-2.0 | .1-1.9 | .1-2.0 |
PCE prices excluding food and energy (percent change, Q4 to Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
Greenbook forecast errors | 2.2-2.7 | .9-2.1 | .4-2.3 | … | … | … |
FRB/US stochastic simulations | 2.3-2.6 | 1.1-1.9 | .7-1.9 | .4-1.8 | .2-1.7 | .3-1.8 |
Federal funds rate (percent, Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.4 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
FRB/US stochastic simulations | .9-1.4 | .0-1.7 | .0-2.5 | .4-3.4 | 1.0-4.2 | 1.9-5.1 |
Notes: Intervals derived from Greenbook forecast errors are based on projections made from 1987-2007. Shocks underlying FRB/US stochastic simulations are randomly drawn from the 1987-2007 set of model equation residuals.
… Not applicable. The Greenbook forecast horizon has typically extended about two years. Return to table
Forecast Confidence Intervals and Alternative Scenarios under the Assumption that Monetary Policy Follows an Estimated Taylor Rule
Confidence Intervals based on FRB/US Stochastic Simulations
Period | 90 percent lower bound | 70 percent lower bound | Greenbook extension | 70 percent upper bound | 90 percent upper bound | More financial fallout | More rapid financial recovery | Fiscal stimulus | Bigger fiscal stimulus | Higher inflation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007:Q1 | ND | ND | 1.25 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2007:Q2 | ND | ND | 1.77 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2007:Q3 | ND | ND | 2.75 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2007:Q4 | ND | ND | 2.33 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2008:Q1 | ND | ND | 2.54 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2008:Q2 | ND | ND | 2.05 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2008:Q3 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
2008:Q4 | -0.60 | -0.23 | 0.33 | 0.85 | 1.12 | 0.12 | 0.49 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
2009:Q1 | -1.41 | -0.97 | -0.24 | 0.48 | 0.94 | -0.84 | 0.20 | 0.39 | 0.19 | -0.21 |
2009:Q2 | -2.44 | -1.95 | -1.04 | -0.11 | 0.43 | -2.15 | -0.17 | -0.32 | -0.45 | -1.04 |
2009:Q3 | -2.30 | -1.73 | -0.69 | 0.39 | 1.03 | -2.28 | 0.71 | -0.26 | -0.04 | -0.71 |
2009:Q4 | -1.88 | -1.26 | -0.12 | 1.03 | 1.71 | -2.00 | 1.81 | 0.22 | 0.56 | -0.18 |
2010:Q1 | -1.24 | -0.62 | 0.61 | 1.79 | 2.54 | -1.29 | 2.91 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.48 |
2010:Q2 | -0.73 | -0.05 | 1.22 | 2.46 | 3.21 | -0.55 | 3.73 | 0.76 | 1.51 | 1.08 |
2010:Q3 | -0.23 | 0.45 | 1.75 | 3.01 | 3.75 | 0.16 | 4.27 | 1.59 | 2.07 | 1.60 |
2010:Q4 | 0.13 | 0.89 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 4.35 | 0.93 | 4.43 | 2.25 | 2.58 | 2.13 |
2011:Q1 | 0.71 | 1.49 | 2.92 | 4.21 | 5.03 | 1.83 | 4.39 | 2.76 | 2.37 | 2.82 |
2011:Q2 | 1.39 | 2.17 | 3.60 | 4.95 | 5.76 | 2.82 | 4.21 | 3.45 | 2.93 | 3.54 |
2011:Q3 | 1.90 | 2.69 | 4.13 | 5.53 | 6.35 | 3.63 | 3.89 | 3.97 | 3.31 | 4.06 |
2011:Q4 | 2.15 | 3.02 | 4.45 | 5.89 | 6.74 | 4.19 | 3.52 | 4.25 | 3.66 | 4.34 |
2012:Q1 | 2.27 | 3.16 | 4.59 | 6.08 | 6.97 | 4.55 | 3.34 | 4.60 | 4.49 | 4.41 |
2012:Q2 | 2.26 | 3.18 | 4.61 | 6.13 | 6.94 | 4.74 | 3.16 | 4.64 | 4.65 | 4.32 |
2012:Q3 | 2.27 | 3.25 | 4.70 | 6.24 | 7.12 | 4.95 | 3.13 | 4.73 | 4.81 | 4.28 |
2012:Q4 | 2.56 | 3.41 | 4.93 | 6.58 | 7.45 | 5.29 | 3.26 | 4.95 | 4.98 | 4.39 |
2013:Q1 | 2.65 | 3.52 | 5.05 | 6.74 | 7.71 | 5.51 | 3.31 | 5.09 | 5.17 | 4.39 |
2013:Q2 | 2.67 | 3.53 | 5.07 | 6.81 | 7.82 | 5.62 | 3.26 | 5.09 | 5.13 | 4.31 |
2013:Q3 | 2.65 | 3.52 | 5.02 | 6.81 | 7.81 | 5.65 | 3.15 | 5.05 | 5.07 | 4.19 |
2013:Q4 | 2.39 | 3.32 | 4.84 | 6.59 | 7.59 | 5.54 | 2.93 | 4.87 | 4.90 | 3.96 |
Period | 90 percent lower bound | 70 percent lower bound | Greenbook extension | 70 percent upper bound | 90 percent upper bound | More financial fallout | More rapid financial recovery | Fiscal stimulus | Bigger fiscal stimulus | Higher inflation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007:Q1 | ND | ND | 4.49 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2007:Q2 | ND | ND | 4.51 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2007:Q3 | ND | ND | 4.68 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2007:Q4 | ND | ND | 4.80 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2008:Q1 | ND | ND | 4.94 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2008:Q2 | ND | ND | 5.32 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2008:Q3 | 5.95 | 5.95 | 5.95 | 5.95 | 5.95 | 5.95 | 5.95 | 5.95 | 5.95 | 5.95 |
2008:Q4 | 6.04 | 6.13 | 6.29 | 6.46 | 6.56 | 6.33 | 6.26 | 6.29 | 6.29 | 6.29 |
2009:Q1 | 6.22 | 6.37 | 6.62 | 6.87 | 7.02 | 6.75 | 6.52 | 6.50 | 6.53 | 6.61 |
2009:Q2 | 6.41 | 6.58 | 6.92 | 7.24 | 7.42 | 7.19 | 6.70 | 6.71 | 6.76 | 6.91 |
2009:Q3 | 6.54 | 6.76 | 7.14 | 7.52 | 7.72 | 7.58 | 6.76 | 6.95 | 6.93 | 7.14 |
2009:Q4 | 6.57 | 6.80 | 7.23 | 7.66 | 7.91 | 7.85 | 6.64 | 7.06 | 6.99 | 7.24 |
2010:Q1 | 6.57 | 6.83 | 7.30 | 7.78 | 8.06 | 8.09 | 6.48 | 7.16 | 7.02 | 7.33 |
2010:Q2 | 6.53 | 6.81 | 7.31 | 7.81 | 8.15 | 8.25 | 6.25 | 7.18 | 6.99 | 7.35 |
2010:Q3 | 6.46 | 6.76 | 7.28 | 7.81 | 8.17 | 8.35 | 6.00 | 7.16 | 6.93 | 7.33 |
2010:Q4 | 6.39 | 6.69 | 7.22 | 7.79 | 8.14 | 8.39 | 5.77 | 7.10 | 6.84 | 7.28 |
2011:Q1 | 6.19 | 6.51 | 7.07 | 7.67 | 8.03 | 8.31 | 5.55 | 6.98 | 6.81 | 7.13 |
2011:Q2 | 5.95 | 6.28 | 6.85 | 7.48 | 7.85 | 8.14 | 5.35 | 6.79 | 6.68 | 6.92 |
2011:Q3 | 5.69 | 6.03 | 6.62 | 7.26 | 7.66 | 7.91 | 5.19 | 6.57 | 6.51 | 6.70 |
2011:Q4 | 5.44 | 5.81 | 6.40 | 7.07 | 7.46 | 7.68 | 5.09 | 6.36 | 6.31 | 6.49 |
2012:Q1 | 5.20 | 5.55 | 6.17 | 6.87 | 7.24 | 7.41 | 5.01 | 6.13 | 6.10 | 6.28 |
2012:Q2 | 4.93 | 5.31 | 5.93 | 6.63 | 7.01 | 7.13 | 4.94 | 5.89 | 5.86 | 6.08 |
2012:Q3 | 4.69 | 5.07 | 5.69 | 6.37 | 6.77 | 6.82 | 4.88 | 5.65 | 5.62 | 5.88 |
2012:Q4 | 4.40 | 4.80 | 5.43 | 6.13 | 6.54 | 6.49 | 4.80 | 5.39 | 5.36 | 5.67 |
2013:Q1 | 4.10 | 4.51 | 5.17 | 5.87 | 6.27 | 6.15 | 4.73 | 5.13 | 5.10 | 5.48 |
2013:Q2 | 3.84 | 4.22 | 4.93 | 5.61 | 6.04 | 5.81 | 4.68 | 4.88 | 4.84 | 5.30 |
2013:Q3 | 3.57 | 3.98 | 4.70 | 5.36 | 5.79 | 5.48 | 4.64 | 4.65 | 4.61 | 5.14 |
2013:Q4 | 3.35 | 3.77 | 4.49 | 5.17 | 5.56 | 5.17 | 4.62 | 4.44 | 4.40 | 5.01 |
Period | 90 percent lower bound | 70 percent lower bound | Greenbook extension | 70 percent upper bound | 90 percent upper bound | More financial fallout | More rapid financial recovery | Fiscal stimulus | Bigger fiscal stimulus | Higher inflation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007:Q1 | ND | ND | 2.347 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2007:Q2 | ND | ND | 2.068 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2007:Q3 | ND | ND | 2.014 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2007:Q4 | ND | ND | 2.203 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2008:Q1 | ND | ND | 2.178 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2008:Q2 | ND | ND | 2.260 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2008:Q3 | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.500 |
2008:Q4 | 2.199 | 2.299 | 2.441 | 2.590 | 2.699 | 2.447 | 2.389 | 2.441 | 2.441 | 2.513 |
2009:Q1 | 1.978 | 2.132 | 2.342 | 2.571 | 2.692 | 2.346 | 2.346 | 2.335 | 2.337 | 2.462 |
2009:Q2 | 1.687 | 1.907 | 2.188 | 2.483 | 2.658 | 2.173 | 2.285 | 2.195 | 2.192 | 2.410 |
2009:Q3 | 1.153 | 1.412 | 1.764 | 2.133 | 2.357 | 1.707 | 1.965 | 1.805 | 1.791 | 2.116 |
2009:Q4 | 0.818 | 1.115 | 1.534 | 1.935 | 2.201 | 1.401 | 1.920 | 1.602 | 1.588 | 1.988 |
2010:Q1 | 0.607 | 0.939 | 1.407 | 1.869 | 2.150 | 1.184 | 1.855 | 1.500 | 1.495 | 2.033 |
2010:Q2 | 0.488 | 0.840 | 1.356 | 1.844 | 2.149 | 1.036 | 1.821 | 1.455 | 1.473 | 2.135 |
2010:Q3 | 0.418 | 0.769 | 1.331 | 1.855 | 2.175 | 0.917 | 1.807 | 1.420 | 1.472 | 2.248 |
2010:Q4 | 0.332 | 0.696 | 1.306 | 1.870 | 2.220 | 0.809 | 1.775 | 1.393 | 1.474 | 2.341 |
2011:Q1 | 0.240 | 0.618 | 1.262 | 1.855 | 2.220 | 0.696 | 1.742 | 1.359 | 1.468 | 2.379 |
2011:Q2 | 0.150 | 0.541 | 1.201 | 1.835 | 2.186 | 0.593 | 1.699 | 1.302 | 1.419 | 2.383 |
2011:Q3 | 0.074 | 0.489 | 1.146 | 1.800 | 2.180 | 0.521 | 1.655 | 1.246 | 1.357 | 2.392 |
2011:Q4 | -0.029 | 0.405 | 1.082 | 1.778 | 2.148 | 0.456 | 1.587 | 1.179 | 1.277 | 2.375 |
2012:Q1 | -0.091 | 0.335 | 1.030 | 1.728 | 2.133 | 0.427 | 1.535 | 1.125 | 1.205 | 2.356 |
2012:Q2 | -0.157 | 0.289 | 0.993 | 1.706 | 2.103 | 0.406 | 1.497 | 1.088 | 1.163 | 2.343 |
2012:Q3 | -0.205 | 0.256 | 0.969 | 1.677 | 2.074 | 0.392 | 1.478 | 1.068 | 1.146 | 2.333 |
2012:Q4 | -0.222 | 0.236 | 0.960 | 1.671 | 2.068 | 0.384 | 1.477 | 1.063 | 1.146 | 2.322 |
2013:Q1 | -0.231 | 0.230 | 0.960 | 1.703 | 2.074 | 0.369 | 1.488 | 1.065 | 1.150 | 2.316 |
2013:Q2 | -0.220 | 0.215 | 0.970 | 1.713 | 2.124 | 0.354 | 1.513 | 1.079 | 1.167 | 2.298 |
2013:Q3 | -0.213 | 0.235 | 0.989 | 1.733 | 2.176 | 0.345 | 1.548 | 1.102 | 1.195 | 2.275 |
2013:Q4 | -0.199 | 0.279 | 1.018 | 1.783 | 2.230 | 0.344 | 1.594 | 1.134 | 1.230 | 2.250 |
Period | 90 percent lower bound | 70 percent lower bound | Greenbook extension | 70 percent upper bound | 90 percent upper bound | More financial fallout | More rapid financial recovery | Fiscal stimulus | Bigger fiscal stimulus | Higher inflation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007:Q1 | ND | ND | 5.26 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2007:Q2 | ND | ND | 5.25 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2007:Q3 | ND | ND | 5.07 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2007:Q4 | ND | ND | 4.50 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2008:Q1 | ND | ND | 3.18 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2008:Q2 | ND | ND | 2.09 | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND | ND |
2008:Q3 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
2008:Q4 | 0.70 | 0.87 | 1.15 | 1.42 | 1.53 | 1.01 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.03 |
2009:Q1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.60 | 1.15 | 1.42 | 0.49 | 1.07 | 0.65 | 0.55 | 0.59 |
2009:Q2 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.34 | 1.74 | 0.49 | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.55 |
2009:Q3 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.56 | 2.08 | 0.49 | 1.13 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.55 |
2009:Q4 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.72 | 2.37 | 0.49 | 1.43 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.56 |
2010:Q1 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.85 | 2.56 | 0.49 | 1.82 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.57 |
2010:Q2 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.93 | 2.70 | 0.49 | 2.26 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.59 |
2010:Q3 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 2.23 | 3.00 | 0.49 | 2.73 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
2010:Q4 | -0.00 | 0.03 | 1.00 | 2.52 | 3.35 | 0.49 | 3.19 | 1.05 | 0.95 | 1.01 |
2011:Q1 | -0.00 | 0.07 | 1.20 | 2.74 | 3.58 | 0.49 | 3.62 | 1.25 | 1.15 | 1.44 |
2011:Q2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1.40 | 2.95 | 3.83 | 0.49 | 4.00 | 1.45 | 1.35 | 1.97 |
2011:Q3 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1.60 | 3.14 | 4.05 | 0.49 | 4.33 | 1.65 | 1.55 | 2.54 |
2011:Q4 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.26 | 0.49 | 4.60 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 3.12 |
2012:Q1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 3.61 | 4.43 | 0.49 | 4.81 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 3.69 |
2012:Q2 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 2.20 | 3.79 | 4.68 | 0.49 | 4.97 | 2.25 | 2.15 | 4.22 |
2012:Q3 | 0.12 | 0.85 | 2.40 | 3.97 | 4.85 | 0.49 | 5.06 | 2.45 | 2.35 | 4.69 |
2012:Q4 | 0.23 | 1.03 | 2.60 | 4.21 | 5.07 | 0.51 | 5.10 | 2.65 | 2.55 | 5.08 |
2013:Q1 | 0.35 | 1.24 | 2.80 | 4.42 | 5.29 | 0.60 | 5.09 | 2.85 | 2.75 | 5.39 |
2013:Q2 | 0.55 | 1.45 | 3.00 | 4.64 | 5.55 | 0.79 | 5.04 | 3.05 | 2.95 | 5.61 |
2013:Q3 | 0.77 | 1.68 | 3.20 | 4.84 | 5.75 | 1.06 | 4.95 | 3.25 | 3.15 | 5.75 |
2013:Q4 | 0.97 | 1.90 | 3.40 | 5.08 | 5.98 | 1.38 | 4.82 | 3.45 | 3.35 | 5.82 |
Evolution of the Staff Forecast
Figure: Change in Real GDP
A line chart shows four series, "2007", "2008", "2009", and "2010", from January 25, 2006, through December 10, 2008. Unit is percent, Q4/Q4. The 2007 series begins at about 3.0 percent on January 25, 2006, generally decreases to about 2.1 by September 13, 2006, and fluctuates between about 1.9 and 2.25 through October 24, 2007. It then generally increases to about 2.5 on July 30, 2008, and decreases to end at about 2.25 on October 22, 2008. The 2008 series begins at about 2.4 percent on September 13, 2006, fluctuates between about 2.25 and 2.5 through June 20, 2007, and generally decreases to about 0.1 on March 13, 2008. It then generally increases to about 1.5 on September 10, 2008, and decreases to end at about 0.25 on October 22, 2008. The 2009 series begins at about 2.2 percent on September 12, 2007, generally increases to about 3.0 on March 13, 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -0.1 on October 22, 2008. The 2010 series begins at about 2.75 percent on September 10, 2008, and decreases to end at about 2.25 on October 22, 2008.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
A line shows unemployment rate for "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is percent, fourth quarter. The 2007 series begins at about 5.1 percent on January 25, 2006, decreases to about 4.9 on March 22, and increases to about 5.2 on June 21. It then decreases to about 4.7 on June 20, 2007 and stays about the same through December 5, 2007, and then increases to about 4.8 on January 23, 2008, stays about the same to end on October 22, 3008. The 2008 series begins at about 5.2 percent on September 13, 2006, decreases to about 4.9 on January 24, 2007, increases to about 5.1 on March 14, and decreases to about 4.8 on June 20, 2007. It then increases to about 5.7 on March 13, 2008, stays about the same on April 23, 2008, decreases to about 5.6 on June 18, 2008 and increases to end at about 6.25 on October 22, 2008. The 2009 series begins at about 4.9 percent on September 9, 2007, decreases to about 4.8 on October 24, 2007, then increases to about 5.5 on March 13, 2008, stays about the same on April 23, 2008 and increases to end at about 7.2 on October 22, 2008. The 2010 series begins at about 5.9 on September 10, 2008, and increases to end at about 7.2 on October 22, 2008.
Figure: Change in PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
A line chart shows three series, "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is Percent, Q4/Q4. The 2007 series begins at about 1.75 percent on January 25, 2006, increases to about 2.3 on September 13, 2006, stays generally the same through May 2, decreases to about 1.75 on October 24, 2007, and then increases to about 2.1 on January 23, 2008. It stays about the same through July 30, 2008 and then increases to end at about 2.25 on October 22, 2008. The 2008 series begins at about 2.1 percent on September 13, 2006, stays generally the same through May 2, decreases to about 1.9 on September 12, then increases to about 2.25 on March 13, 2008 and stays about the same through July 30, 2008. The series then increases and ends at about 2.4 on October 22, 2008. The 2009 series begins at about 1.9 percent on September 12, 2007 and stays the same through March 13, 2008. It then increases to about 2.25 on July 30, 2008, and decreases to end at about 1.5 on October 22, 2008. The 2010 series begins at about 1.9 on September 10, 2008, and decreases to end at about 1.25 on October 22, 2008.
Changes in GDP, Prices, and Unemployment
Interval | Nominal GDP | Real GDP | PCE price index | Core PCE price index | Unemployment rate1 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09/10/08 | 10/22/08 | 09/10/08 | 10/22/08 | 09/10/08 | 10/22/08 | 09/10/08 | 10/22/08 | 09/10/08 | 10/22/08 | ||
Quarterly | |||||||||||
2008: | Q1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | .9 | .9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
Q2 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | |
Q3 | 5.5 | 3.0 | .6 | -1.0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | |
Q4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | -1.3 | .6 | -2.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 6.2 | 6.3 | |
2009: | Q1 | 4.0 | .6 | 1.6 | -1.4 | 2.3 | .7 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 6.2 | 6.6 |
Q2 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 2.2 | -.4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 6.2 | 6.9 | |
Q3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | .4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 6.2 | 7.1 | |
Q4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 6.2 | 7.2 | |
2010: | Q1 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 6.1 | 7.3 |
Q2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 6.0 | 7.3 | |
Q3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 7.3 | |
Q4 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 7.2 | |
Two-quarter2 | |||||||||||
2008: | Q2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | .5 | .5 |
Q4 | 4.7 | 3.0 | .8 | -1.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | .9 | 1.0 | |
2009: | Q2 | 4.3 | .9 | 1.9 | -.9 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | .0 | .6 |
Q4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | .7 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.4 | .0 | .3 | |
2010: | Q2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | -.2 | .1 |
Q4 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | -.1 | -.1 | |
Four-quarter3 | |||||||||||
2007:Q4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | .4 | .4 | |
2008:Q4 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | .3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | |
2009:Q4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | -.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | .0 | .9 | |
2010:Q4 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | -.3 | .0 | |
Annual | |||||||||||
2007 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | |
2008 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | |
2009 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | -.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 7.0 | |
2010 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 7.3 |
1. Level, except for two-quarter and four-quarter intervals. Return to table
2. Percent change from two quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points. Return to table
3. Percent change from four quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points. Return to table
Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items
Item | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2008 1 | 2009 1 | 2010 1 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | ||||
Real GDP | .9 | 2.8 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -.4 | .4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | .3 | -.1 | 2.3 |
Previous | .9 | 3.5 | .6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.7 |
Final sales | .9 | 4.4 | -.8 | -3.5 | -1.4 | -.4 | -.2 | .1 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | .2 | -.5 | 2.3 |
Previous | .9 | 5.0 | .0 | -.4 | .8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.8 |
Priv. dom. final purch. | -.3 | .7 | -3.5 | -4.4 | -2.8 | -1.3 | -.6 | .3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.9 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 2.9 |
Previous | -.3 | 1.3 | -1.2 | -2.1 | .5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | -.6 | 1.3 | 3.3 |
Personal cons. expend. | .9 | 1.2 | -3.3 | -2.4 | -.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 | -.9 | 1.0 | 2.4 |
Previous | .9 | 1.7 | -.5 | -1.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | .1 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
Durables | -4.3 | -2.8 | -16.2 | -3.9 | -.2 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 5.4 | -7.0 | 2.0 | 5.3 |
Nondurables | -.4 | 3.9 | -6.2 | -6.8 | -1.3 | .4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.2 | -2.5 | .6 | 2.6 |
Services | 2.4 | .7 | .7 | .0 | .5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | .9 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
Residential investment | -25.1 | -13.3 | -19.7 | -24.4 | -24.8 | -17.0 | -17.1 | -2.8 | 4.6 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 19.5 | -20.8 | -15.8 | 13.4 |
Previous | -25.1 | -13.4 | -17.6 | -20.0 | -15.9 | -4.9 | -6.7 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 19.0 | 21.6 | 18.2 | -19.1 | -6.2 | 17.1 |
Business fixed invest. | 2.4 | 2.5 | .8 | -9.9 | -12.6 | -11.9 | -10.6 | -8.3 | -.5 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 8.2 | -1.2 | -10.9 | 4.1 |
Previous | 2.4 | 3.5 | .1 | .7 | -1.3 | -2.0 | .7 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | -.3 | 4.9 |
Equipment & software | -.6 | -5.0 | -2.0 | -11.1 | -11.4 | -8.4 | -6.8 | -4.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 14.0 | -4.7 | -7.7 | 10.2 |
Previous | -.6 | -3.5 | -2.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 8.4 | -.8 | 2.9 | 8.3 |
Nonres. structures | 8.6 | 18.5 | 6.0 | -7.7 | -14.6 | -17.8 | -17.3 | -16.0 | -12.0 | -9.1 | -5.1 | -3.5 | 5.9 | -16.4 | -7.5 |
Previous | 8.6 | 18.5 | 5.8 | -5.4 | -7.2 | -7.6 | -5.7 | -4.4 | -3.3 | -2.2 | -.7 | .1 | 6.5 | -6.2 | -1.6 |
Net exports2 | -462 | -381 | -346 | -335 | -317 | -303 | -299 | -307 | -326 | -313 | -312 | -326 | -381 | -307 | -319 |
Previous2 | -462 | -377 | -358 | -329 | -326 | -298 | -284 | -292 | -312 | -291 | -284 | -303 | -381 | -300 | -298 |
Exports | 5.1 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
Imports | -.8 | -7.3 | -1.0 | -.3 | .0 | -1.3 | .9 | 4.1 | 6.7 | .4 | 3.3 | 6.9 | -2.4 | .9 | 4.3 |
Govt. cons. & invest. | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.8 | -1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | .7 | .6 | .9 | .9 | .1 | .1 | 2.4 | .9 | .5 |
Previous | 1.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | .8 | .8 | .8 | .8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | .8 |
Federal | 5.8 | 6.6 | 10.2 | -3.1 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | .9 | .9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
Defense | 7.3 | 7.3 | 15.9 | -4.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
Nondefense | 2.9 | 5.0 | -1.4 | -1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 5.5 | 5.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
State & local | -.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | .3 | .0 | -.3 | -.4 | -.4 | -.4 | -.4 | -.4 | -.5 | 1.1 | -.3 | -.4 |
Change in bus. inventories2 | -10 | -51 | -57 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 43 | 56 | 35 | 30 | 38 | -29 | 16 | 40 |
Previous2 | -10 | -52 | -37 | 2 | 22 | 24 | 28 | 47 | 61 | 35 | 20 | 33 | -24 | 30 | 37 |
Nonfarm2 | -18 | -55 | -60 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 42 | 55 | 34 | 29 | 37 | -33 | 15 | 39 |
Farm2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table
2. Billions of chained (2000) dollars. Return to table
Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items
Item | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | .3 | -.1 | 2.3 |
Previous | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.7 |
Final sales | .8 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | .2 | -.5 | 2.3 |
Previous | .8 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.8 |
Priv. dom. final purch. | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 2.9 |
Previous | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 | -.6 | 1.3 | 3.3 |
Personal cons. expend. | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | -.9 | 1.0 | 2.4 |
Previous | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | .1 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
Durables | 1.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 6.9 | 4.2 | -7.0 | 2.0 | 5.3 |
Nondurables | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.7 | -2.5 | .6 | 2.6 |
Services | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | .9 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
Residential investment | 7.0 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 5.4 | -15.5 | -19.0 | -20.8 | -15.8 | 13.4 |
Previous | 7.0 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 5.4 | -15.5 | -19.0 | -19.1 | -6.2 | 17.1 |
Business fixed invest. | -6.5 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 6.4 | -1.2 | -10.9 | 4.1 |
Previous | -6.5 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 1.7 | -.3 | 4.9 |
Equipment & software | -3.4 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 2.8 | -4.7 | -7.7 | 10.2 |
Previous | -3.4 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 2.8 | -.8 | 2.9 | 8.3 |
Nonres. structures | -14.9 | .2 | 2.3 | -.5 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 5.9 | -16.4 | -7.5 |
Previous | -14.9 | .2 | 2.3 | -.5 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 6.5 | -6.2 | -1.6 |
Net exports1 | -471 | -519 | -594 | -617 | -616 | -547 | -381 | -307 | -319 |
Previous1 | -471 | -519 | -594 | -617 | -616 | -547 | -381 | -300 | -298 |
Exports | 3.8 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
Imports | 9.7 | 4.8 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | -2.4 | .9 | 4.3 |
Govt. cons. & invest. | 4.0 | 1.7 | .7 | .6 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | .9 | .5 |
Previous | 4.0 | 1.7 | .7 | .6 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | .8 |
Federal | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
Defense | 8.4 | 7.5 | 2.5 | .8 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
Nondefense | 6.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | .5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
State & local | 2.1 | -.4 | -.4 | .3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | -.3 | -.4 |
Change in bus. inventories1 | 12 | 14 | 54 | 39 | 42 | -2 | -29 | 16 | 40 |
Previous1 | 12 | 14 | 54 | 39 | 42 | -2 | -24 | 30 | 37 |
Nonfarm1 | 15 | 14 | 48 | 39 | 46 | -4 | -33 | 15 | 39 |
Farm1 | -2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
1. Billions of chained (2000) dollars. Return to table
Contributions to Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product
Item | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2008 1 | 2009 1 | 2010 1 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | ||||
Real GDP | .9 | 2.8 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -.4 | .4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | .3 | -.1 | 2.3 |
Previous | .9 | 3.5 | .6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.7 |
Final sales | .9 | 4.3 | -.8 | -3.5 | -1.4 | -.4 | -.2 | .1 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | .2 | -.5 | 2.3 |
Previous | .9 | 5.0 | .0 | -.4 | .8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.8 |
Priv. dom. final purch. | -.3 | .6 | -3.0 | -3.8 | -2.3 | -1.1 | -.5 | .3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.2 | -1.6 | -.9 | 2.4 |
Previous | -.3 | 1.1 | -1.0 | -1.8 | .4 | .9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.9 | -.5 | 1.1 | 2.8 |
Personal cons. expend. | .6 | .9 | -2.3 | -1.7 | -.1 | .7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | -.7 | .7 | 1.7 |
Previous | .6 | 1.3 | -.4 | -1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | .1 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
Durables | -.3 | -.2 | -1.3 | -.3 | .0 | .1 | .2 | .2 | .3 | .4 | .3 | .4 | -.5 | .1 | .3 |
Nondurables | -.1 | .8 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -.3 | .1 | .3 | .4 | .4 | .5 | .6 | .6 | -.5 | .1 | .5 |
Services | 1.0 | .3 | .3 | .0 | .2 | .5 | .6 | .6 | .6 | .7 | .9 | 1.0 | .4 | .5 | .8 |
Residential investment | -1.1 | -.5 | -.8 | -.9 | -.8 | -.5 | -.5 | -.1 | .1 | .4 | .4 | .5 | -.8 | -.5 | .3 |
Previous | -1.1 | -.5 | -.7 | -.7 | -.5 | -.1 | -.2 | .1 | .3 | .5 | .6 | .5 | -.8 | -.2 | .5 |
Business fixed invest. | .3 | .3 | .1 | -1.1 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.1 | -.8 | .0 | .3 | .6 | .8 | -.1 | -1.2 | .4 |
Previous | .3 | .4 | .0 | .1 | -.1 | -.2 | .1 | .1 | .4 | .4 | .6 | .6 | .2 | .0 | .5 |
Equipment & software | .0 | -.4 | -.1 | -.8 | -.8 | -.6 | -.4 | -.3 | .4 | .5 | .7 | .9 | -.3 | -.5 | .6 |
Previous | .0 | -.3 | -.2 | .3 | .1 | .1 | .3 | .3 | .6 | .5 | .6 | .6 | -.1 | .2 | .6 |
Nonres. structures | .3 | .6 | .2 | -.3 | -.6 | -.7 | -.7 | -.6 | -.4 | -.3 | -.2 | -.1 | .2 | -.6 | -.2 |
Previous | .3 | .6 | .2 | -.2 | -.3 | -.3 | -.2 | -.2 | -.1 | -.1 | .0 | .0 | .2 | -.2 | -.1 |
Net exports | .8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | .4 | .6 | .5 | .2 | -.3 | -.7 | .4 | .0 | -.5 | 1.3 | .2 | -.2 |
Previous | .8 | 3.1 | .7 | 1.0 | .1 | 1.0 | .5 | -.4 | -.7 | .7 | .2 | -.7 | 1.4 | .3 | -.1 |
Exports | .6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | .4 | .6 | .3 | .3 | .4 | .4 | .5 | .6 | .7 | .9 | .4 | .5 |
Imports | .1 | 1.4 | .2 | .1 | .0 | .2 | -.2 | -.7 | -1.1 | -.1 | -.6 | -1.1 | .4 | -.1 | -.7 |
Govt. cons. & invest. | .4 | .8 | 1.0 | -.2 | .3 | .2 | .1 | .1 | .2 | .2 | .0 | .0 | .5 | .2 | .1 |
Previous | .4 | .8 | .4 | .3 | .3 | .3 | .2 | .2 | .2 | .2 | .2 | .2 | .5 | .3 | .2 |
Federal | .4 | .5 | .7 | -.2 | .3 | .3 | .2 | .2 | .2 | .2 | .1 | .1 | .3 | .2 | .2 |
Defense | .3 | .4 | .8 | -.2 | .3 | .2 | .2 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .3 | .2 | .1 |
Nondefense | .1 | .1 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 |
State & local | .0 | .3 | .2 | .0 | .0 | .0 | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 | -.1 | .1 | .0 | -.1 |
Change in bus. inventories | .0 | -1.5 | -.2 | 2.2 | .0 | .0 | .6 | .9 | .5 | -.8 | -.2 | .3 | .1 | .4 | .0 |
Previous | .0 | -1.5 | .6 | 1.5 | .8 | .1 | .2 | .7 | .6 | -1.0 | -.6 | .5 | .1 | .4 | -.1 |
Nonfarm | .2 | -1.4 | -.2 | 2.3 | .0 | .0 | .6 | .9 | .5 | -.8 | -.2 | .3 | .2 | .4 | .0 |
Farm | -.2 | -.1 | -.1 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | -.1 | .0 | .0 |
1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table
Changes in Prices and Costs
Item | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2008 1 | 2009 1 | 2010 1 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | ||||
GDP chain-wt. price index | 2.6 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Previous | 2.6 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
PCE chain-wt. price index | 3.6 | 4.3 | 5.6 | -2.2 | .7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Previous | 3.6 | 4.2 | 5.5 | .6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
Energy | 19.0 | 27.4 | 31.7 | -51.9 | -17.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.9 | -1.0 | -2.3 | 3.3 |
Previous | 19.0 | 27.6 | 34.7 | -26.4 | -1.4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | .7 | .7 | .8 | 10.8 | 1.2 | .8 |
Food | 4.9 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
Previous | 4.9 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 2.1 |
Ex. food & energy | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Previous | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
CPI | 4.3 | 5.0 | 6.7 | -4.5 | .3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Previous | 4.3 | 5.0 | 7.2 | -.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
Ex. food & energy | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Previous | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
ECI, hourly compensation2 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
Previous2 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
Nonfarm business sector | |||||||||||||||
Output per hour | 2.6 | 3.6 | -.3 | .8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
Previous | 2.6 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
Compensation per hour | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
Previous | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
Unit labor costs | 1.2 | .1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | .7 | .9 | -.1 | .2 | .0 | -.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | -.1 |
Previous | 1.2 | -.7 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
Core goods imports chain-wt price index3 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.5 | -2.9 | -4.5 | .2 | .7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5.5 | -.5 | 1.5 |
Previous3 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 2.1 | .5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table
2. Private-industry workers. Return to table
3. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table
Changes in Prices and Costs
Item | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP chain-wt. price index | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Previous | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
PCE chain-wt. price index | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Previous | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
Energy | 7.7 | 7.6 | 18.3 | 23.1 | -4.0 | 19.1 | -1.0 | -2.3 | 3.3 |
Previous | 7.7 | 7.6 | 18.3 | 23.1 | -4.0 | 19.1 | 10.8 | 1.2 | .8 |
Food | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
Previous | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 2.1 |
Ex. food & energy | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Previous | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
CPI | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Previous | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
Ex. food & energy | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Previous | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
ECI, hourly compensation1 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
Previous1 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
Nonfarm business sector | |||||||||
Output per hour | 2.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | .6 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
Previous | 2.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | .6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
Compensation per hour | 3.2 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
Previous | 3.2 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
Unit labor costs | .2 | .5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.6 | .9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | -.1 |
Previous | .2 | .5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.6 | .9 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
Core goods imports chain-wt. price index2 | .1 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 5.5 | -.5 | 1.5 |
Previous2 | .1 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
1. Private-industry workers. Return to table
2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil and natural gas. Return to table
Other Macroeconomic Indicators
Item | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2008 1 | 2009 1 | 2010 1 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | ||||
Employment and production | |||||||||||||||
Nonfarm payroll employment2 | -.1 | -.2 | -.3 | -.5 | -.6 | -.5 | -.3 | -.1 | .0 | .3 | .1 | .3 | -1.1 | -1.6 | .8 |
Unemployment rate3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
Previous3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
GDP gap4 | -.6 | -.5 | -1.4 | -2.3 | -3.2 | -3.9 | -4.3 | -4.7 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.7 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -4.7 |
Previous4 | -.6 | -.4 | -.9 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -1.4 |
Industrial production5 | .4 | -3.1 | -6.0 | -.6 | -.1 | -.1 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.3 | -2.4 | .9 | 2.7 |
Previous5 | .4 | -3.2 | -2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.7 | -.4 | 3.0 | 3.8 |
Manufacturing industr. prod.5 | -1.0 | -3.8 | -5.8 | -4.8 | -2.6 | -.4 | .9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.9 | -3.8 | -.1 | 3.2 |
Previous5 | -1.0 | -3.9 | -2.1 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.2 | -1.5 | 2.8 | 4.5 |
Capacity utilization rate - mfg.3 | 78.7 | 77.6 | 76.1 | 74.9 | 74.3 | 74.1 | 74.1 | 74.4 | 74.7 | 75.1 | 75.7 | 76.3 | 74.9 | 74.4 | 76.3 |
Previous3 | 78.7 | 77.6 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 77.0 | 77.1 | 77.4 | 77.8 | 78.4 | 79.0 | 79.5 | 80.1 | 76.8 | 77.8 | 80.1 |
Housing starts6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | .9 | .8 | .7 | .7 | .7 | .7 | .8 | .9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | .9 | .7 | .9 |
Light motor vehicle sales6 | 15.2 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 14.1 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 13.7 |
Income and saving | |||||||||||||||
Nominal GDP5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 2.9 | .6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
Real disposable pers. income5 | -.7 | 11.9 | -8.4 | -.2 | 3.7 | .3 | .1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | .9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | .4 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Previous5 | -.7 | 11.4 | -8.3 | -1.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.8 | .0 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
Personal saving rate3 | .2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
Previous3 | .2 | 2.6 | .7 | .7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | .7 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
Corporate profits7 | -4.3 | -14.3 | -6.3 | -10.2 | -4.6 | -4.8 | -.1 | -.2 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 10.7 | -8.9 | -2.5 | 9.1 |
Profit share of GNP3 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 10.2 |
Net federal saving8 | -331 | -640 | -496 | -456 | -539 | -566 | -576 | -603 | -635 | -629 | -650 | -656 | -481 | -571 | -642 |
Net state & local saving8 | -52 | -67 | -94 | -95 | -99 | -106 | -105 | -99 | -92 | -91 | -83 | -77 | -77 | -102 | -86 |
Gross national saving rate3 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 10.9 | 11.0 |
Net national saving rate3 | .0 | -1.0 | -1.4 | -.7 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -1.9 | -2.1 | -2.1 | -2.2 | -2.0 | -1.9 | -.7 | -2.1 | -1.9 |
1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise indicated. Return to table
2. Change, millions. Return to table
3. Percent, annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
4. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
5. Percent change, annual rate. Return to table
6. Level, millions, annual values are annual averages. Return to table
7. Percent change, annual rate, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Return to table
8. Billions of dollars, annual values are annual averages. Return to table
Other Macroeconomic Indicators
Item | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Employment and production | |||||||||
Nonfarm payroll employment1 | -.7 | -.1 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | -1.1 | -1.6 | .8 |
Unemployment rate2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
Previous2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
GDP gap3 | -2.4 | -1.6 | -.6 | -.1 | .0 | -.2 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -4.7 |
Previous3 | -2.4 | -1.6 | -.6 | -.1 | .0 | -.2 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -1.4 |
Industrial production4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 | -2.4 | .9 | 2.7 |
Previous4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 | -.4 | 3.0 | 3.8 |
Manufacturing industr. prod.4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 2.3 | -3.8 | -.1 | 3.2 |
Previous4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 2.3 | -1.5 | 2.8 | 4.5 |
Capacity utilization rate - mfg.2 | 73.2 | 74.8 | 77.5 | 79.2 | 79.0 | 79.3 | 74.9 | 74.4 | 76.3 |
Previous2 | 73.2 | 74.8 | 77.5 | 79.2 | 79.0 | 79.3 | 76.8 | 77.8 | 80.1 |
Housing starts5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | .9 | .7 | .9 |
Light motor vehicle sales5 | 16.7 | 16.6 | 16.8 | 16.9 | 16.5 | 16.1 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 13.7 |
Income and saving | |||||||||
Nominal GDP4 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
Real disposable pers. income4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 4.1 | .9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | .4 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Previous4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 4.1 | .9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | .0 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
Personal saving rate2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | .8 | .9 | .4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
Previous2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | .8 | .9 | .4 | .7 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
Corporate profits6 | 20.6 | 12.6 | 20.3 | 18.8 | 6.9 | -2.0 | -8.9 | -2.5 | 9.1 |
Profit share of GNP2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 10.2 |
Net federal saving7 | -248 | -372 | -371 | -292 | -201 | -229 | -481 | -571 | -642 |
Net state & local saving7 | -34 | -20 | 2 | 29 | 46 | 10 | -77 | -102 | -86 |
Gross national saving rate2 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 13.8 | 15.0 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 11.9 | 10.9 | 11.0 |
Net national saving rate2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | -.7 | -2.1 | -1.9 |
1. Change, millions. Return to table
2. Percent, values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
3. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
4. Percent change. Return to table
5. Level, millions, values are annual averages. Return to table
6. Percent change, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Return to table
7. Billions of dollars, values are annual averages. Return to table
Staff Projections of Federal Sector Accounts and Related Items
Item | Fiscal year | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007a | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | Q1a | Q2a | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
Unified budget | Not seasonally adjusted | |||||||||||||||
Receipts1 | 2568 | 2524 | 2533 | 2636 | 540 | 788 | 590 | 580 | 518 | 795 | 640 | 611 | 554 | 814 | 657 | 636 |
Outlays1 | 2729 | 2979 | 3386 | 3224 | 746 | 761 | 759 | 1036 | 795 | 786 | 768 | 823 | 812 | 804 | 785 | 853 |
Surplus/deficit1 | -162 | -455 | -853 | -587 | -206 | 27 | -169 | -456 | -277 | 9 | -128 | -212 | -258 | 11 | -128 | -218 |
Previous | -162 | -403 | -455 | -430 | -206 | 44 | -134 | -144 | -262 | 43 | -92 | -178 | -230 | 64 | -85 | -175 |
On-budget | -343 | -638 | -1016 | -742 | -237 | -64 | -171 | -522 | -290 | -78 | -127 | -272 | -268 | -77 | -126 | -278 |
Off-budget | 181 | 183 | 163 | 155 | 31 | 91 | 2 | 66 | 12 | 86 | -1 | 60 | 10 | 88 | -3 | 60 |
Means of financing | ||||||||||||||||
Borrowing | 206 | 768 | 1030 | 605 | 200 | -48 | 526 | 796 | 65 | 19 | 150 | 201 | 247 | 14 | 143 | 207 |
Cash decrease | -23 | -296 | 322 | 0 | 11 | -7 | -318 | -228 | 575 | -15 | -10 | 15 | 15 | -20 | -10 | 15 |
Other2 | -22 | -17 | -498 | -18 | -5 | 29 | -39 | -112 | -362 | -12 | -12 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 |
Cash operating balance, end of period | 75 | 372 | 50 | 50 | 46 | 53 | 372 | 599 | 25 | 40 | 50 | 35 | 20 | 40 | 50 | 35 |
NIPA federal sector | Seasonally adjusted annual rates | |||||||||||||||
Receipts | 2624 | 2616 | 2666 | 2746 | 2673 | 2488 | 2624 | 2645 | 2656 | 2661 | 2701 | 2716 | 2732 | 2753 | 2784 | 2817 |
Expenditures | 2832 | 3042 | 3200 | 3375 | 3003 | 3128 | 3120 | 3101 | 3194 | 3226 | 3277 | 3319 | 3367 | 3381 | 3434 | 3473 |
Consumption expenditures | 842 | 908 | 964 | 1011 | 898 | 918 | 945 | 941 | 960 | 972 | 984 | 994 | 1005 | 1018 | 1025 | 1032 |
Defense | 569 | 623 | 667 | 697 | 614 | 629 | 656 | 651 | 664 | 673 | 681 | 688 | 693 | 700 | 706 | 713 |
Nondefense | 273 | 285 | 297 | 314 | 284 | 289 | 289 | 290 | 296 | 299 | 303 | 306 | 312 | 319 | 319 | 319 |
Other spending | 1990 | 2134 | 2236 | 2365 | 2105 | 2210 | 2175 | 2160 | 2234 | 2254 | 2294 | 2325 | 2362 | 2363 | 2409 | 2441 |
Current account surplus | -209 | -426 | -534 | -629 | -331 | -640 | -496 | -456 | -539 | -566 | -576 | -603 | -635 | -629 | -650 | -656 |
Gross investment | 123 | 135 | 148 | 155 | 129 | 138 | 147 | 145 | 147 | 150 | 152 | 153 | 154 | 156 | 157 | 159 |
Gross saving less gross investment3 | -221 | -445 | -560 | -655 | -344 | -661 | -525 | -481 | -564 | -592 | -603 | -630 | -661 | -654 | -675 | -681 |
Fiscal indicators4 | ||||||||||||||||
High-employment (HEB) surplus/deficit | -229 | -419 | -398 | -396 | -329 | -639 | -462 | -378 | -423 | -409 | -383 | -384 | -405 | -389 | -406 | -414 |
Change in HEB, percent of potential GDP | -0.3 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 2.1 | -1.3 | -0.6 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Fiscal impetus (FI), percent of GDP | 0.2 | 0.7 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Previous | 0.2 | 0.7 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
1. Budget receipts, outlays, and surplus/deficit include corresponding social security (OASDI) categories. The OASDI surplus and the Postal Service surplus are excluded from the on-budget surplus and shown separately as off-budget, as classified under current law. Return to table
2. Other means of financing are checks issued less checks paid, accrued items, and changes in other financial assets and liabilities. Return to table
3. Gross saving is the current account surplus plus consumption of fixed capital of the general government as well as government enterprises. Return to table
4. HEB is gross saving less gross investment (NIPA) of the federal government in current dollars, with cyclically sensitive receipts and outlays adjusted to the staff's measure of potential output and the NAIRU. Quarterly figures for change in HEB and FI are not at annual rates. The sign on Change in HEB, as a percent of nominal potential GDP, is reversed. FI is the weighted difference of discretionary changes in federal spending and taxes in chained (2000) dollars, scaled by real GDP. The annual FI estimates are on a calendar year basis. Also, for FI and the change in HEB, positive values indicate aggregate demand stimulus. Return to table
a--Actual Return to table
Change in Debt of the Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors
Period1 | Total | Households | Business | State and local governments | Federal government | Memo: Nominal GDP | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | Home mortgages | Consumer credit | |||||||
Year | |||||||||
2003 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 14.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 5.9 | |
2004 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 13.7 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 6.5 | |
2005 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 6.3 | |
2006 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 5.3 | |
2007 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | |
2008 | 7.3 | 1.2 | .8 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 28.8 | 3.4 | |
2009 | 2.8 | -.4 | -.8 | -.5 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 1.5 | |
2010 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 3.5 | |
Quarter | |||||||||
2008: | 1 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 |
2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | .9 | 4.0 | 5.7 | .9 | 5.9 | 4.1 | |
3 | 8.9 | .5 | .2 | -.0 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 39.2 | 3.0 | |
4 | 10.8 | -.3 | -.4 | -1.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 53.2 | 2.9 | |
2009: | 1 | .9 | -.7 | -.9 | -1.6 | 3.6 | 5.5 | -2.0 | .6 |
2 | 3.0 | -.7 | -1.1 | -.7 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 1.2 | |
3 | 3.3 | -.4 | -.8 | -.1 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 1.8 | |
4 | 3.8 | .0 | -.4 | .4 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 2.3 | |
2010: | 1 | 3.8 | .7 | .0 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 2.7 |
2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | .9 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | |
3 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 3.8 | |
4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 4.3 |
Note. Quarterly data are at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
1. Data after 2008:Q2 are staff projections. Changes are measured from end of the preceding period to end of period indicated except for annual nominal GDP growth, which is calculated from Q4 to Q4. Return to table
2.6.3 FOF
Flow of Funds Projections: Highlights
Category | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||||
Domestic nonfinancial sectors | ||||||||||||||
Net funds raised | ||||||||||||||
Total | 1682.6 | 1916.0 | 654.6 | 1247.7 | 2480.2 | 3189.2 | -24.4 | 707.6 | 870.8 | 1064.5 | 1065.5 | 1151.1 | 1221.3 | 1553.1 |
Net equity issuance | -833.0 | -410.4 | -285.0 | -260.0 | -393.6 | -380.0 | -320.0 | -300.0 | -260.0 | -260.0 | -260.0 | -260.0 | -260.0 | -260.0 |
Net debt issuance | 2515.5 | 2326.4 | 939.6 | 1507.7 | 2873.8 | 3569.2 | 295.6 | 1007.6 | 1130.8 | 1324.5 | 1325.5 | 1411.1 | 1481.3 | 1813.1 |
Borrowing indicators | ||||||||||||||
Debt (percent of GDP)1 | 220.6 | 229.4 | 236.2 | 237.9 | 227.7 | 231.7 | 234.7 | 235.1 | 235.8 | 236.6 | 237.2 | 237.5 | 237.7 | 238.0 |
Borrowing (percent of GDP) | 18.2 | 16.2 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 20.0 | 24.6 | 2.0 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 11.9 |
Households | ||||||||||||||
Net borrowing2 | 881.0 | 169.5 | -60.2 | 269.9 | 63.5 | -38.3 | -98.6 | -95.6 | -50.3 | 3.6 | 95.9 | 214.2 | 327.0 | 442.3 |
Home mortgages | 669.8 | 85.8 | -85.1 | 141.8 | 23.6 | -47.3 | -94.5 | -113.4 | -85.1 | -47.3 | 0.0 | 94.5 | 189.1 | 283.6 |
Consumer credit | 136.0 | 51.2 | -13.2 | 79.9 | -0.0 | -29.6 | -41.1 | -19.2 | -3.8 | 11.5 | 48.7 | 72.3 | 89.7 | 109.0 |
Debt/DPI (percent)3 | 131.8 | 130.6 | 128.6 | 125.9 | 130.5 | 131.3 | 129.7 | 128.8 | 128.1 | 127.2 | 126.3 | 125.9 | 125.2 | 124.9 |
Business | ||||||||||||||
Financing gap4 | 185.6 | 237.6 | 233.5 | 199.9 | 225.2 | 238.5 | 249.4 | 225.5 | 223.4 | 235.6 | 232.7 | 195.4 | 184.7 | 186.8 |
Net equity issuance | -833.0 | -410.4 | -285.0 | -260.0 | -393.6 | -380.0 | -320.0 | -300.0 | -260.0 | -260.0 | -260.0 | -260.0 | -260.0 | -260.0 |
Credit market borrowing | 1211.6 | 606.4 | 431.3 | 481.4 | 579.6 | 453.4 | 398.4 | 398.3 | 466.5 | 462.2 | 482.9 | 492.3 | 464.7 | 485.5 |
State and local governments | ||||||||||||||
Net borrowing | 185.9 | 76.3 | 133.5 | 145.5 | 152.2 | 58.9 | 125.5 | 125.5 | 141.5 | 141.5 | 145.5 | 145.5 | 145.5 | 145.5 |
Current surplus5 | 246.6 | 149.2 | 111.6 | 135.4 | 112.8 | 113.9 | 112.3 | 107.0 | 109.9 | 117.2 | 126.7 | 129.2 | 138.5 | 147.2 |
Federal government | ||||||||||||||
Net borrowing | 237.1 | 1474.2 | 435.0 | 611.0 | 2078.5 | 3095.2 | -129.7 | 579.5 | 573.1 | 717.2 | 601.2 | 559.0 | 544.1 | 739.8 |
Net borrowing (n.s.a.) | 237.1 | 1474.2 | 435.0 | 611.0 | 526.5 | 795.9 | 64.6 | 18.9 | 150.1 | 201.4 | 247.4 | 13.7 | 142.9 | 207.0 |
Unified deficit (n.s.a.) | 187.9 | 804.0 | 608.7 | 593.0 | 169.0 | 456.1 | 277.2 | -8.5 | 128.1 | 211.9 | 257.9 | -10.8 | 128.4 | 217.5 |
Depository institutions | ||||||||||||||
Funds supplied | 851.7 | 996.1 | 465.2 | 716.3 | 1930.2 | 1082.0 | 426.1 | 288.3 | 560.2 | 586.4 | 726.6 | 914.2 | 698.5 | 525.8 |
Note. Data after 2008:Q2 are staff projections.
1. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by nominal GDP. Return to table
2. Includes change in liabilities not shown in home mortgages and consumer credit. Return to table
3. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by disposable personal income. Return to table
4. For corporations, excess of capital expenditures over U.S. internal funds. Return to table
5. NIPA state and local government saving plus consumption of fixed capital and net capital transfers. Return to table
n.s.a. Not seasonally adjusted. Return to table
2.6.4 FOF
† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text