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October 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts


Appendix A: Measures of the Equilibrium Real Rate


Measure Description
Single-equation Model The measure of the equilibrium real rate in the single-equation model is based on an estimated aggregate-demand relationship between the current value of the output gap and its lagged values as well as the lagged values of the real federal funds rate.
Small Structural Model The small-scale model of the economy consists of equations for six variables: the output gap, the equity premium, the federal budget surplus, the trend growth rate of output, the real bond yield, and the real federal funds rate.
Large Model (FRB/US) Estimates of the equilibrium real rate using FRB/US--the staff's large-scale econometric model of the U.S. economy--depend on a very broad array of economic factors, some of which take the form of projected values of the model's exogenous variables.
Greenbook-consistent The FRB/US model is used in conjunction with an extended version of the Greenbook forecast to derive a Greenbook-consistent measure. FRB/US is first add-factored so that its simulation matches the extended Greenbook forecast, and then a second simulation is run off this baseline to determine the value of the real federal funds rate that closes the output gap.
TIPS-based Factor Model Yields on TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) reflect investors' expectations of the future path of real interest rates, but also include term and liquidity premiums. The TIPS-based measure of the equilibrium real rate is constructed using the seven-year-ahead instantaneous real forward rate derived from TIPS yields as of the Bluebook publication date. This forward rate is adjusted to remove estimates of the term and liquidity premiums based on a three-factor arbitrage-free term-structure model applied to TIPS yields, nominal yields, and inflation. Because TIPS indexation is based on the total CPI, this measure is also adjusted for the medium-term difference--projected at 40 basis points--between total CPI inflation and core PCE inflation.


Proxy used for expected inflation Actual real
federal funds rate
(current value)
Greenbook-consistent
measure of the equilibrium
real funds rate
(current value)
Average actual
real funds rate
(twelve-quarter
average)
Lagged core inflation -1.0 -3.1 -0.9
Lagged headline inflation -2.8 -3.2 -0.9
Projected headline inflation 0.1 -2.7 -0.4
Last update: March 7, 2014