Accessible Material
October 2008 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts†
International Developments
Summary of Staff Projections
Indicator | 2007 | 2008:H1 | Projection | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||
Q3 | Q4 | |||||
Foreign output | 4.2 | 1.7 | .5 | .5 | 1.3 | 2.9 |
September Greenbook | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
Foreign CPI | 3.6 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
September Greenbook | 3.6 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
Contribution to growth (percentage points) | ||||||
U.S. net exports | .8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | .4 | .2 | -.2 |
September Greenbook | .8 | 1.9 | .7 | 1.0 | .3 | -.1 |
Note: Changes for years measured as Q4/Q4; half-year is measured as Q2/Q4.
[Box:] Banking System Rescue Plans in Advanced Economies
Country | Expansion of deposit insurance |
Guarantees on bank liabilities |
Capital injections |
Asset purchases |
---|---|---|---|---|
Australia | + | + | + | |
Belgium | + | b | b | |
France | + | + | ||
Germany | + | + | + | |
Italy | + | + | + | |
Netherlands | + | + | + | |
Spain | + | + | + | + |
Sweden | + | + | + | |
Switzerland | + | b | b | |
United Kingdom | + | + | + | |
United States | + | + | + | + |
b Has announced measures that apply to specific bank(s), rather than the banking system or a defined set of banks. Return to table
Figure: Credit Default Swap Premiums - Banks
A line chart shows three series, "United States", "United Kingdom", and "Europe ex U.K.", from September 1st through October 27th. Unit is basis points. The September 16, 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "United States" series begins at about 150 on September 1st, generally increases to about 230 around the time of September 16, 2008 FOMC meeting, and increases to about 270, shortly after the meeting by September 19th. It decreases to about 185 by September 22nd, generally increases to about 250 by September 29th, and generally decreases to end at about 110 by late October, 2008. The "United Kingdom" series begins at about 110 on September 1st, generally increases to about 165 around the time of September 16, 2008 FOMC meeting, and increases to about 230, shortly after the meeting by September 19th. It decreases to about 150 by September 22nd, generally increases to about 233 by September 29th, generally decreases to about 80 by October 14th, and increases to end at about 98 by late October, 2008. The "Europe ex U.K." series begins at about 90 on September 1st, generally increases to about 150 around the time of September 16, 2008 FOMC meeting, and increases to about 160, shortly after the meeting by September 19th. It decreases to about 108 by September 22nd, generally increases to about 142 by September 29th, and generally decreases to end at about 100 by late October, 2008.
Source: Markit.
Figure: U.S. Dollar Libor Spread over OIS (3-Month)
A line chart shows three series, "United States", "United Kingdom", and "Europe ex U.K.", from September 1st through October 27th. Unit is basis points. The September 16, 2008 FOMC meeting is marked with a vertical tripwire. The "United States Banks" series begins at about 75.5 on September 1st, generally increases to about 99 around the time of September 16, 2008 FOMC meeting, and increases to about 337.5 by October 13th. It then generally decreases and ends at about 225 by late October, 2008. The "United Kingdom Banks" series begins at about 76 on September 1st, generally increases to about 103 around the time of September 16, 2008 FOMC meeting, and increases to about 362.5 by October 13th. It then generally decreases and ends at about 262.5 by late October, 2008. The "Europe Banks ex U.K." series begins at about 76.5 on September 1st, generally increases to about 105 around the time of September 16, 2008 FOMC meeting, and increases to about 355 by October 13th. It then generally decreases and ends at about 251 by late October, 2008.
Note: Regional averages of banks in Libor panel.
Source: Bloomberg
[Box:] The Japanese Experience with Very Low Interest Rates
Figure: Policy Rates
A line chart shows three series, "Nominal Uncollateralized Call Rate", "Real Uncollateralized Call Rate"**, and "Real Federal Funds Rate"**. Unit is percent. Four shaded regions indicate: LIRP*, from 1995:Q4 through 1998; ZIRP, from 1999 through mid-2000; QEP, from 2001:Q2 through 2006:Q1; and LIRP, from 2006:Q2 through 2008. The "Nominal Uncollateralized Call Rate" series begins at about 6.5 percent in 1990, generally increases to about 8.3 in 1991, and generally decreases to about 0 in 1999. It stays about the same through mid-2006 and generally increases to end at about 0.5 in late 2008. The "Real Uncollateralized Call Rate"** series begins at about 3.5 in 1990, generally increases to about 5.8 in 1991, and generally decreases to about -0.7 by 1998. It then increases to about 1.2 in 2001, and ends at about 0.5 in 2008. The "Real Federal Funds Rate"** series begins at about 3.8 in 1990, generally decreases to about -0.5 in 1992, and generally increases to about 4.1 by 2000. It then generally decreases to about -1 by late 2001, generally increases to about 3.1 in 2007, and generally decreases to end at about -0.5 in 2008.
*Severity of nominal bound indicated by shading. LIRP: Low Interest Rate Policy; ZIRP: Zero Interest Rate Policy; QEP: Quantitative Easing Policy. Return to text
**Deflated by 12-month change in CPI ex food and energy. Japan core adjusted for 1997 tax change. Return to text
Figure: Headline CPI
A line chart shows two series, "Japan"***, and "US", from 1990 through 2008. Unit is 12-month percent change. Four shaded regions indicate: LIRP*, from 1995:Q4 through 1998; ZIRP, from 1999 through mid-2000; QEP, from 2001:Q2 through 2006:Q1; and LIRP, from 2006:Q2 through 2008. The "Japan"*** series begins at about 3.3 in 1990, with some volatility, it generally decreases to about -1.5 by early 2002, and then generally increases to end at about 2.2 in late 2008. The "US" series begins at about 5.3 in 1990, with some volatility, generally decreases to about 1 by mid-2002, and then generally increases to end at about 5 in late 2008.
***Adjusted for tax change in 1997. Return to text
Source: Japan: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. United States: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure: Exchange Rates
A line chart shows two series, "Major Currencies Index (left scale)", and "Dollar/Yen (right scale)", from 1990 through 2008. The left scale ranges from 60 to 120; unit is an index, January 1998 = 100. The right scale ranges from 6 to 12; unit is Dollar/Yen x 1000. The "Major Currencies Index" series begins at about 94 in 1990, fluctuates between about 82 and 95 through mid-1997, and generally increases to peak at about 114 in early 2002. The series then generally decreases and ends at about 76 in late 2008. The "Dollar/Yen" series begins at about 6.8 in 1990, decreases to about 6.3 shortly after, then peaks at about 11.9 in 1995, and generally decreases to about 6.8 in 1998. The series then increases to about 9.6 in 2000, fluctuates between about 7.5 and 9.9 through mid-2008 and ends at about 9.4 in late 2008.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Figure: Real GDP per Capita
A line chart shows two series, "Japan", and "US", from 1990 through 2008. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. The "Japan" series begins at about 4.9 in 1990, decreases to about -0.1 in 1993, increases to about 3.5 in 1994, and generally decreases to about -2.5 in 1998. The series generally increases to about 2.5 in 2000, decreases to about 0 in 2001, increases to about 2.5 in 2004 and then decreases to end at about 2 in 2007. The "US" series begins at about 0.7 in 1990, decreases to about -1.5 in 1991, generally increases to about 3.3 in 1997 and 1999, then decreases to about -0.2 in 2001. The series increases to about 2.5 in 2004, and then generally decreases to end at about 1 in 2007.
Source: Japan: Cabinet Office. United States: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Staff Projections of Selected Trade Prices
Trade category | 2007 | 2008:H1 | Projection | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||
Q3 | Q4 | |||||
Imports | ||||||
Core goods | 3.4 | 9.5 | 6.5 | -2.9 | -.5 | 1.5 |
September Greenbook | 3.4 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Oil (dollars per barrel) | 80.11 | 108.65 | 117.85 | 75.26 | 73.32 | 78.65 |
September Greenbook | 80.11 | 108.51 | 111.71 | 98.35 | 102.07 | 102.39 |
Exports | ||||||
Core goods | 6.2 | 13.0 | 7.8 | -6.0 | -.2 | 1.0 |
September Greenbook | 6.2 | 13.1 | 9.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Note: Prices for core exports exclude computers and semiconductors. Prices for core imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Both prices are on a National Income and Product Account chain-weighted basis.
The price of imported oil for multiquarter periods is the price for the final quarter of the period. Imported oil includes both crude oil and refined products.
Staff Projections for Trade in Goods and Services
Measure | 2007 | 2008:H1 | Projection | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||
Q3 | Q4 | |||||
Real imports | 1.1 | -4.1 | -1.0 | -.3 | .9 | 4.4 |
September Greenbook | 1.1 | -4.2 | -.8 | -.3 | 2.8 | 4.9 |
Real exports | 8.9 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
September Greenbook | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 5.1 |
Note: Changes for years are measured as Q4/Q4; half-year is measured as Q2/Q4.
Alternative Scenarios:
Weaker Foreign Demand and Dollar Appreciation
Indicator and simulation | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011-13 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
H2 | H1 | H2 | |||
U.S. real GDP | |||||
Baseline | -1.2 | -.9 | .7 | 2.3 | 4.7 |
Weaker foreign demand | -1.3 | -1.2 | .4 | 1.8 | 4.7 |
Additional dollar appreciation | -1.3 | -1.3 | -.1 | 1.2 | 4.8 |
U.S. PCE prices excluding food and energy | |||||
Baseline | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Weaker foreign demand | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | .7 |
Additional dollar appreciation | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | .9 | .4 |
U.S. federal funds rate (percent) | |||||
Baseline | 1.2 | .5 | .5 | 1.0 | 3.4 |
Weaker foreign demand | 1.2 | .5 | .5 | .5 | 2.2 |
Additional dollar appreciation | 1.1 | .5 | .5 | .5 | 1.1 |
U.S. trade balance (percent share of GDP) | |||||
Baseline | -3.4 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -3.2 | -4.1 |
Weaker foreign demand | -3.3 | -2.8 | -2.9 | -3.3 | -4.8 |
Additional dollar appreciation | -3.2 | -2.6 | -2.9 | -3.6 | -5.4 |
Note: H1 is Q2/Q4; H2 is Q4/Q2. The federal funds rate and the trade balance are the average rate for the final quarter of the period.
Evolution of the Staff Forecast
Greenbook publication date | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|
25 January 2006 | -7.53 | ND | ND | ND |
22 March 2006 | -7.74 | ND | ND | ND |
3 May 2006 | -7.75 | ND | ND | ND |
21 June 2006 | -7.14 | ND | ND | ND |
3 August 2006 | -7.03 | ND | ND | ND |
13 September 2006 | -6.75 | -6.96 | ND | ND |
18 October 2006 | -6.84 | -7.09 | ND | ND |
6 December 2006 | -6.70 | -6.87 | ND | ND |
24 January 2007 | -6.37 | -6.67 | ND | ND |
14 March 2007 | -6.12 | -6.38 | ND | ND |
2 May 2007 | -6.26 | -6.40 | ND | ND |
20 June 2007 | -5.92 | -6.21 | ND | ND |
2 August 2007 | -5.83 | -5.81 | ND | ND |
12 September 2007 | -5.65 | -5.54 | -5.32 | ND |
24 October 2007 | -5.67 | -5.49 | -5.09 | ND |
5 December 2007 | -5.60 | -5.40 | -4.90 | ND |
23 January 2008 | -5.48 | -5.40 | -4.73 | ND |
12 March 2008 | -5.47 | -5.33 | -4.27 | ND |
23 April 2008 | -5.34 | -5.15 | -4.10 | ND |
18 June 2008 | -5.28 | -5.23 | -4.55 | ND |
30 July 2008 | -5.28 | -5.05 | -4.19 | ND |
10 September 2008 | -5.30 | -4.83 | -3.84 | -3.39 |
22 October 2008 | -5.30 | -4.76 | -3.32 | -3.19 |
Greenbook publication date | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|
25 January 2006 | 3.41 | ND | ND | ND |
22 March 2006 | 3.44 | ND | ND | ND |
3 May 2006 | 3.45 | ND | ND | ND |
21 June 2006 | 3.33 | ND | ND | ND |
3 August 2006 | 3.23 | ND | ND | ND |
13 September 2006 | 3.20 | 3.26 | ND | ND |
18 October 2006 | 3.23 | 3.31 | ND | ND |
6 December 2006 | 3.30 | 3.41 | ND | ND |
24 January 2007 | 3.37 | 3.46 | ND | ND |
14 March 2007 | 3.49 | 3.45 | ND | ND |
2 May 2007 | 3.56 | 3.49 | ND | ND |
20 June 2007 | 3.64 | 3.49 | ND | ND |
2 August 2007 | 3.80 | 3.41 | ND | ND |
12 September 2007 | 3.77 | 3.16 | 3.23 | ND |
24 October 2007 | 3.79 | 3.23 | 3.23 | ND |
5 December 2007 | 3.97 | 3.06 | 3.24 | ND |
23 January 2008 | 4.03 | 2.88 | 3.37 | ND |
12 March 2008 | 4.16 | 2.28 | 3.57 | ND |
23 April 2008 | 4.13 | 2.27 | 3.60 | ND |
18 June 2008 | 4.12 | 2.58 | 3.41 | ND |
30 July 2008 | 4.12 | 2.42 | 3.26 | ND |
10 September 2008 | 4.15 | 1.80 | 3.04 | 3.54 |
22 October 2008 | 4.15 | 1.08 | 1.31 | 2.86 |
Greenbook publication date | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|
25 January 2006 | 1.08 | ND | ND | ND |
22 March 2006 | 1.17 | ND | ND | ND |
3 May 2006 | 1.31 | ND | ND | ND |
21 June 2006 | 1.47 | ND | ND | ND |
3 August 2006 | 1.39 | ND | ND | ND |
13 September 2006 | 1.44 | 0.97 | ND | ND |
18 October 2006 | 1.37 | 0.98 | ND | ND |
6 December 2006 | 2.11 | 1.04 | ND | ND |
24 January 2007 | 1.55 | 1.04 | ND | ND |
14 March 2007 | 1.97 | 1.10 | ND | ND |
2 May 2007 | 3.24 | 1.34 | ND | ND |
20 June 2007 | 3.49 | 1.58 | ND | ND |
2 August 2007 | 3.36 | 1.63 | ND | ND |
12 September 2007 | 2.85 | 1.25 | 1.04 | ND |
24 October 2007 | 2.97 | 1.16 | 0.71 | ND |
5 December 2007 | 2.89 | 1.14 | 0.86 | ND |
23 January 2008 | 3.11 | 1.69 | 1.22 | ND |
12 March 2008 | 3.22 | 3.85 | 1.18 | ND |
23 April 2008 | 3.30 | 4.60 | 1.27 | ND |
18 June 2008 | 3.30 | 5.78 | 1.40 | ND |
30 July 2008 | 3.30 | 6.90 | 1.40 | ND |
10 September 2008 | 3.40 | 7.12 | 0.96 | 1.25 |
22 October 2008 | 3.40 | 5.55 | -0.54 | 1.53 |
* Prices for merchandise imports excluding computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table
Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries
Measure and country | Projected | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
REAL GDP1 | Quarterly changes at an annual rate | |||||||||||
Total Foreign | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
Advanced Foreign Economies | 1.0 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
of which: | ||||||||||||
Canada | -0.8 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
Japan | 2.8 | -3.0 | -0.2 | -0.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
United Kingdom | 1.1 | 0.0 | -0.9 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
Euro Area2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Germany | 5.2 | -2.0 | -0.4 | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Emerging Market Economies | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
Asia | 8.0 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.1 |
Korea | 3.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
China | 11.7 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
Latin America | -0.2 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
Mexico | -0.5 | 0.6 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
Brazil | 3.4 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.9 |
CONSUMER PRICES3 | Four-quarter changes | |||||||||||
Total Foreign | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Advanced Foreign Economies | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
of which: | ||||||||||||
Canada | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
Japan | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
United Kingdom4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Euro Area2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Germany | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Emerging Market Economies | 5.9 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
Asia | 6.5 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
Korea | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
China | 8.0 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
Latin America | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
Mexico | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
Brazil | 4.6 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports. Return to table
2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat. Return to table
3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports. Return to table
4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate. Return to table
Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries
Measure and country | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | Projected | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |||||||
REAL GDP1 | |||||||||
Total Foreign | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2.9 |
Advanced Foreign Economies | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.8 |
of which: | |||||||||
Canada | 3.5 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 1.8 |
Japan | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
United Kingdom | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 2.3 |
Euro Area2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 | -0.0 | 1.6 |
Germany | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | -0.0 | 1.6 |
Emerging Market Economies | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 4.3 |
Asia | 6.4 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 5.9 |
Korea | 7.7 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.9 |
China | 8.6 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 9.0 |
Latin America | 1.6 | 1.8 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
Mexico | 2.0 | 1.3 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 2.2 |
Brazil | 4.9 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
CONSUMER PRICES3 | |||||||||
Total Foreign | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Advanced Foreign Economies | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
of which: | |||||||||
Canada | 3.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
Japan | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
United Kingdom4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Euro Area2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
Germany | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Emerging Market Economies | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
Asia | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
Korea | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
China | -0.6 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
Latin America | 6.4 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
Mexico | 5.2 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
Brazil | 10.7 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports. Return to table
2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat. Return to table
3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports. Return to table
4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate. Return to table
Outlook for U.S. International Transactions
2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | Projected | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |||||||
NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS | |||||||||
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth, Q4/Q4 | |||||||||
Net Goods & Services | -0.9 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
Exports of G&S | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Imports of G&S | -1.3 | -0.7 | -1.7 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.7 |
Percentage change, Q4/Q4 | |||||||||
Exports of G&S | 3.8 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
Services | 10.2 | 3.0 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.6 | -0.7 | 3.9 |
Computers | -1.1 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 14.2 | 8.1 | 0.9 | 21.0 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
Semiconductors | 10.1 | 38.3 | -6.0 | 17.6 | 2.9 | 29.3 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
Core Goods1 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
Imports of G&S | 9.7 | 4.8 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | -2.4 | 0.9 | 4.3 |
Services | 8.8 | 2.2 | 9.3 | -0.1 | 8.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
Oil | 3.8 | 1.2 | 10.8 | 1.0 | -9.2 | 0.6 | -6.7 | -5.5 | 3.2 |
Natural Gas | 19.5 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 13.7 | -12.6 | 12.1 | -20.1 | 7.3 | 0.8 |
Computers | 13.2 | 17.0 | 23.2 | 12.5 | 13.8 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
Semiconductors | 11.0 | -0.1 | 9.8 | 7.5 | -0.3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
Core Goods2 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 0.1 | -2.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 |
Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars | |||||||||
Net Goods & Services | -471.3 | -518.9 | -593.8 | -616.6 | -615.7 | -546.5 | -381.1 | -306.6 | -319.4 |
Exports of G&S | 1013.3 | 1026.1 | 1126.1 | 1205.3 | 1314.8 | 1425.9 | 1551.3 | 1614.9 | 1666.7 |
Imports of G&S | 1484.6 | 1545.0 | 1719.9 | 1821.9 | 1930.5 | 1972.4 | 1932.3 | 1921.6 | 1986.1 |
Billions of dollars | |||||||||
US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE | -461.3 | -523.4 | -625.0 | -729.0 | -788.1 | -731.2 | -682.5 | -485.1 | -479.9 |
Current Acct as Percent of GDP | -4.4 | -4.8 | -5.3 | -5.9 | -6.0 | -5.3 | -4.8 | -3.3 | -3.2 |
Net Goods & Services (BOP) | -423.7 | -496.9 | -607.7 | -711.6 | -753.3 | -700.3 | -660.4 | -434.2 | -476.2 |
Investment Income, Net | 33.0 | 51.0 | 73.4 | 78.8 | 63.8 | 88.8 | 106.5 | 74.3 | 119.6 |
Direct, Net | 102.4 | 112.7 | 150.9 | 173.2 | 184.1 | 233.9 | 249.9 | 204.4 | 230.5 |
Portfolio, Net | -69.4 | -61.7 | -77.5 | -94.4 | -120.3 | -145.1 | -143.4 | -130.0 | -110.9 |
Other Income & Transfers,Net | -70.5 | -77.5 | -90.6 | -96.2 | -98.6 | -119.7 | -128.6 | -125.3 | -123.3 |
1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table
2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table
Outlook for U.S. International Transactions
2005 | 2006 | 2007 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS | ||||||||||||
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth | ||||||||||||
Net Goods & Services | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -1.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 1.3 | -1.2 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
Exports of G&S | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
Imports of G&S | -0.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -2.4 | -1.6 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -1.2 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.4 |
Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
Exports of G&S | 8.1 | 8.8 | 0.4 | 10.9 | 16.7 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 15.6 | 0.6 | 8.8 | 23.0 | 4.4 |
Services | 10.2 | -2.8 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 13.4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 28.6 | -2.7 | 13.3 | 25.9 | 2.7 |
Computers | 16.8 | 27.9 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 12.0 | 17.5 | -7.9 | 12.7 | 3.9 | -4.0 | 14.4 | -9.2 |
Semiconductors | -5.2 | 11.7 | 30.7 | 38.0 | 20.3 | 16.1 | -5.6 | -15.0 | 15.9 | 23.7 | 20.5 | 61.7 |
Core Goods1 | 7.3 | 13.8 | -2.9 | 12.4 | 18.3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 6.6 | 22.1 | 3.7 |
Imports of G&S | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 15.3 | 10.3 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 7.7 | -3.7 | 3.0 | -2.3 |
Services | -5.7 | -0.0 | -1.0 | 6.8 | 17.7 | -2.0 | -0.3 | 18.4 | 4.2 | -2.0 | 6.3 | -0.9 |
Oil | 5.1 | -27.1 | -11.6 | 53.6 | -2.8 | -27.1 | 7.5 | -10.6 | 30.9 | -22.3 | -13.5 | 16.5 |
Natural Gas | 58.6 | -14.1 | 111.1 | -41.9 | -50.7 | 91.9 | 26.6 | -51.2 | 70.8 | 74.2 | 28.2 | -58.6 |
Computers | 3.2 | 11.6 | 20.4 | 15.4 | 20.7 | 21.1 | 19.7 | -4.3 | 34.9 | -6.5 | -0.2 | 9.7 |
Semiconductors | -9.2 | 7.7 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 17.7 | -15.8 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 6.4 |
Core Goods2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 0.3 | 12.7 | 13.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | -1.1 | 5.8 | -6.0 |
Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
Net Goods & Services | -623.7 | -601.3 | -603.6 | -637.8 | -636.0 | -619.4 | -623.0 | -584.2 | -618.6 | -571.2 | -511.8 | -484.5 |
Exports of G&S | 1177.9 | 1203.1 | 1204.3 | 1235.7 | 1284.3 | 1301.4 | 1312.6 | 1361.1 | 1363.2 | 1392.2 | 1466.2 | 1482.1 |
Imports of G&S | 1801.7 | 1804.4 | 1807.9 | 1873.6 | 1920.2 | 1920.9 | 1935.7 | 1945.3 | 1981.8 | 1963.4 | 1978.0 | 1966.5 |
Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE | -696.2 | -711.3 | -675.6 | -832.9 | -783.8 | -799.6 | -843.6 | -725.4 | -787.7 | -776.4 | -691.8 | -669.0 |
Current Account as % of GDP | -5.7 | -5.8 | -5.4 | -6.6 | -6.0 | -6.1 | -6.4 | -5.4 | -5.8 | -5.7 | -5.0 | -4.8 |
Net Goods & Services (BOP) | -664.0 | -682.9 | -721.4 | -778.0 | -756.4 | -767.4 | -789.9 | -699.5 | -718.2 | -715.3 | -672.5 | -695.1 |
Investment Income, Net | 88.6 | 77.8 | 88.7 | 59.9 | 65.2 | 70.7 | 51.7 | 67.7 | 57.8 | 45.8 | 98.9 | 152.6 |
Direct, Net | 170.2 | 168.5 | 187.8 | 166.3 | 177.2 | 189.2 | 171.9 | 198.2 | 201.1 | 196.2 | 238.8 | 299.3 |
Portfolio, Net | -81.6 | -90.7 | -99.0 | -106.5 | -112.0 | -118.5 | -120.3 | -130.5 | -143.2 | -150.4 | -139.9 | -146.7 |
Other Inc. & Transfers, Net | -120.9 | -106.2 | -42.9 | -114.8 | -92.6 | -103.0 | -105.4 | -93.6 | -127.4 | -106.9 | -118.3 | -126.4 |
1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table
2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table
Outlook for U.S. International Transactions
Projected | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS | ||||||||||||
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth | ||||||||||||
Net Goods & Services | 0.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.5 |
Exports of G&S | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
Imports of G&S | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -1.1 |
Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
Exports of G&S | 5.1 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.7 |
Services | 6.4 | 3.8 | 7.3 | -2.7 | -2.3 | -1.5 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
Computers | 0.4 | 57.4 | 23.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
Semiconductors | 4.6 | -6.8 | 17.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
Core Goods1 | 4.7 | 16.1 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.0 |
Imports of G&S | -0.8 | -7.3 | -1.0 | -0.3 | -0.0 | -1.3 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 6.9 |
Services | 5.5 | -8.0 | 9.3 | -2.4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5.5 | -1.7 | 3.0 | 3.7 |
Oil | 17.6 | -38.1 | -3.0 | 7.3 | -2.8 | -19.9 | -12.1 | 16.6 | 23.0 | -18.3 | -8.5 | 23.4 |
Natural Gas | -40.5 | 3.7 | -46.4 | 23.3 | 16.0 | 27.5 | 41.6 | -36.7 | 2.5 | 18.1 | 38.5 | -38.3 |
Computers | 6.3 | 26.0 | -3.9 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
Semiconductors | -3.3 | 14.4 | 1.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
Core Goods2 | -6.4 | 2.4 | -1.5 | -3.3 | -1.3 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
Net Goods & Services | -462.0 | -381.3 | -346.3 | -334.6 | -317.1 | -303.4 | -298.8 | -307.3 | -326.1 | -313.1 | -312.3 | -326.2 |
Exports of G&S | 1500.6 | 1544.7 | 1574.9 | 1584.8 | 1602.3 | 1609.6 | 1618.6 | 1629.3 | 1642.3 | 1657.2 | 1674.0 | 1693.3 |
Imports of G&S | 1962.6 | 1926.0 | 1921.1 | 1919.5 | 1919.4 | 1913.0 | 1917.4 | 1936.6 | 1968.4 | 1970.3 | 1986.3 | 2019.5 |
Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE | -702.6 | -732.6 | -728.6 | -566.3 | -520.5 | -479.2 | -466.3 | -474.4 | -495.5 | -472.1 | -466.8 | -485.2 |
Current Account as % of GDP | -5.0 | -5.1 | -5.1 | -3.9 | -3.6 | -3.3 | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.2 |
Net Goods & Services (BOP) | -708.4 | -722.2 | -712.0 | -498.9 | -441.4 | -425.9 | -425.1 | -444.3 | -477.3 | -464.7 | -469.2 | -493.5 |
Investment Income, Net | 140.0 | 116.5 | 104.3 | 65.1 | 54.3 | 69.2 | 81.4 | 92.5 | 104.4 | 115.2 | 125.0 | 133.9 |
Direct, Net | 281.0 | 255.4 | 252.9 | 210.2 | 197.1 | 201.7 | 205.9 | 212.8 | 220.3 | 228.0 | 234.4 | 239.4 |
Portfolio, Net | -141.0 | -138.9 | -148.6 | -145.1 | -142.8 | -132.4 | -124.5 | -120.3 | -115.9 | -112.8 | -109.5 | -105.5 |
Other Inc. & Transfers, Net | -134.2 | -126.9 | -121.0 | -132.6 | -133.4 | -122.6 | -122.6 | -122.6 | -122.6 | -122.6 | -122.6 | -125.6 |
1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table
2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table
† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text