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October 2008 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts


Domestic Developments

[Box:] The Federal Funds Rate in the Staff Projection

Implications of Alternative Policy Paths for the Outlook
Data source 2008 2009 2010
Real GDP
Baseline .3 -.1 2.3
Federal funds rate held at 1½ percent .3 -.4 1.9
Federal funds rate cut to 0 percent .3 0 2.5
Unemployment rate
Baseline 6.3 7.2 7.2
Federal funds rate held at 1½ percent 6.3 7.3 7.4
Federal funds rate cut to 0 percent 6.3 7.2 7.1
Core PCE inflation
Baseline 2.4 1.5 1.3
Federal funds rate held at 1½ percent 2.4 1.4 1.1
Federal funds rate cut to 0 percent 2.4 1.6 1.4

Note: Real gross domestic product (GDP) and core inflation measured on a Q4/Q4 basis; unemployment rate reported as the Q4 level.


Key Background Factors Underlying the Baseline Staff Projection

Note: In each panel, shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2008:Q4 except as noted.

Figure: Federal Funds Rate
Quarterly average
Percent
Period Current Greenbook September Greenbook Market forecast
2005:Q1 2.45 2.45 2.45
2005:Q2 2.94 2.94 2.94
2005:Q3 3.40 3.40 3.40
2005:Q4 3.95 3.95 3.95
2006:Q1 4.42 4.42 4.42
2006:Q2 4.90 4.90 4.90
2006:Q3 5.25 5.25 5.25
2006:Q4 5.25 5.25 5.25
2007:Q1 5.25 5.25 5.25
2007:Q2 5.25 5.25 5.25
2007:Q3 5.20 5.20 5.20
2007:Q4 4.50 4.50 4.50
2008:Q1 3.17 3.17 3.17
2008:Q2 2.10 2.10 2.10
2008:Q3 2.00 2.00 2.00
2008:Q4 1.15 2.00 1.15
2009:Q1 0.60 2.00 1.05
2009:Q2 0.50 2.00 1.13
2009:Q3 0.50 2.25 1.36
2009:Q4 0.50 2.50 1.49
2010:Q1 0.50 2.75 1.74
2010:Q2 0.50 2.75 2.09
2010:Q3 0.75 3.00 2.56
2010:Q4 1.00 3.00 2.79

Figure: Long-Term Interest Rates
Quarterly average
Percent
Period Baa corporate rate:
Current Greenbook
Baa corporate rate:
September Greenbook
10-year Treasury rate:
Current Greenbook
10-year Treasury rate:
September Greenbook
2005:Q1 5.97 5.97 4.30 4.30
2005:Q2 5.97 5.97 4.16 4.16
2005:Q3 5.98 5.98 4.22 4.22
2005:Q4 6.34 6.34 4.49 4.49
2006:Q1 6.31 6.31 4.58 4.58
2006:Q2 6.74 6.74 5.07 5.07
2006:Q3 6.59 6.59 4.89 4.89
2006:Q4 6.28 6.28 4.63 4.63
2007:Q1 6.30 6.30 4.68 4.68
2007:Q2 6.49 6.49 4.85 4.85
2007:Q3 6.63 6.63 4.74 4.74
2007:Q4 6.51 6.51 4.27 4.27
2008:Q1 6.75 6.75 3.67 3.67
2008:Q2 6.99 6.99 3.88 3.88
2008:Q3 7.21 7.10 3.86 3.85
2008:Q4 9.05 6.95 3.75 3.65
2009:Q1 8.65 6.90 3.75 3.70
2009:Q2 8.25 6.80 3.75 3.75
2009:Q3 7.95 6.65 3.75 3.80
2009:Q4 7.65 6.45 3.75 3.80
2010:Q1 7.40 6.40 3.75 3.85
2010:Q2 7.20 6.30 3.75 3.85
2010:Q3 7.00 6.25 3.75 3.90
2010:Q4 6.80 6.15 3.75 3.90

Figure: Equity Prices
Quarter-end
2005:Q1 = 100, ratio scale
Period Wilshire 5000:
Current Greenbook
Wilshire 5000:
September Greenbook
2005:Q1 100.00 100.00
2005:Q2 102.05 102.05
2005:Q3 105.59 105.59
2005:Q4 107.56 107.56
2006:Q1 113.04 113.04
2006:Q2 110.41 110.41
2006:Q3 114.67 114.67
2006:Q4 122.51 122.51
2007:Q1 123.81 123.81
2007:Q2 130.70 130.70
2007:Q3 132.00 132.00
2007:Q4 127.33 127.33
2008:Q1 114.55 114.55
2008:Q2 112.33 112.33
2008:Q3 102.03 107.71
2008:Q4 84.12 109.81
2009:Q1 86.14 112.95
2009:Q2 88.20 116.94
2009:Q3 91.12 121.11
2009:Q4 94.17 125.41
2010:Q1 97.31 129.01
2010:Q2 100.53 132.71
2010:Q3 102.94 135.29
2010:Q4 105.43 137.91

Figure: House Prices
Quarterly
2005:Q1 = 100, ratio scale
Period OFHEO purchase-only index:
Current Greenbook
OFHEO purchase-only index:
September Greenbook
2005:Q1 100.00 100.00
2005:Q2 102.39 102.39
2005:Q3 104.85 104.85
2005:Q4 107.07 107.07
2006:Q1 108.87 108.87
2006:Q2 109.88 109.88
2006:Q3 110.38 110.38
2006:Q4 111.23 111.23
2007:Q1 112.17 112.17
2007:Q2 112.70 112.70
2007:Q3 112.10 112.10
2007:Q4 110.63 110.63
2008:Q1 108.77 108.77
2008:Q2 107.29 107.29
2008:Q3 105.69 105.65
2008:Q4 103.36 103.75
2009:Q1 101.09 101.88
2009:Q2 98.86 100.32
2009:Q3 97.08 99.17
2009:Q4 95.53 98.42
2010:Q1 94.29 97.92
2010:Q2 93.63 97.68
2010:Q3 93.16 97.55
2010:Q4 92.88 97.55

Note: The projection period begins in 2008:Q3.


Figure: Crude Oil Prices
Quarterly average
Dollars per barrel
Period West Texas intermediate:
Current Greenbook
West Texas intermediate:
September Greenbook
2005:Q1 49.68 49.68
2005:Q2 53.09 53.09
2005:Q3 63.08 63.08
2005:Q4 60.03 60.03
2006:Q1 63.34 63.34
2006:Q2 70.53 70.53
2006:Q3 70.44 70.44
2006:Q4 60.04 60.04
2007:Q1 58.02 58.02
2007:Q2 64.97 64.97
2007:Q3 75.48 75.48
2007:Q4 90.75 90.75
2008:Q1 97.91 97.91
2008:Q2 123.88 123.88
2008:Q3 118.01 118.18
2008:Q4 73.86 103.45
2009:Q1 73.13 104.56
2009:Q2 74.66 105.61
2009:Q3 76.22 106.25
2009:Q4 77.83 106.57
2010:Q1 79.42 106.75
2010:Q2 80.84 106.83
2010:Q3 82.08 106.86
2010:Q4 83.15 106.89

Figure: Broad Real Dollar
Quarterly average
2005:Q1 = 100
Period Exchange Rate:
Current Greenbook
Exchange Rate:
September Greenbook
2005:Q1 100.00 100.00
2005:Q2 101.27 101.27
2005:Q3 102.35 102.35
2005:Q4 103.50 103.50
2006:Q1 101.95 101.95
2006:Q2 100.69 100.69
2006:Q3 100.61 100.61
2006:Q4 99.14 99.14
2007:Q1 99.09 99.09
2007:Q2 97.11 97.11
2007:Q3 95.11 95.12
2007:Q4 91.97 91.97
2008:Q1 90.05 90.05
2008:Q2 88.50 88.51
2008:Q3 90.85 90.93
2008:Q4 97.93 92.30
2009:Q1 97.39 91.75
2009:Q2 96.68 91.31
2009:Q3 95.96 90.84
2009:Q4 95.24 90.32
2010:Q1 94.39 89.74
2010:Q2 93.49 89.13
2010:Q3 92.55 88.50
2010:Q4 91.59 87.85


Summary of the Near-Term Outlook

(Percent change at annual rate except as noted)
Measure 2008:Q3 2008:Q4
Sept.
GB
Oct.
GB
Sept.
GB
Oct.
GB
Real GDP .6 -1.0 1.1 -1.3
Private domestic final purchases -1.2 -3.5 -2.1 -4.4
Personal consumption expenditures -.5 -3.3 -1.6 -2.4
Residential investment -17.6 -19.7 -20.0 -24.4
Business fixed investment .1 .8 .7 -9.9
Government outlays for consumption and investment 1.9 4.8 1.7 -1.0
Contribution to growth (percentage points)
Inventory investment .6 -.2 1.5 2.2
Net exports .7 1.2 1.0 .4


[Box:] Judgmental Effects of Financial Market Turmoil in the Staff Projection

Figure: Measures of Financial Turmoil

A line chart shows two series, "9-variable financial stress index (left scale)", and "index of change in bank credit standards (right scale)", from 1989 through 2008. The "9-variable financial stress index" series begins at about 102.5 in 1989, generally increases to about 108 in late 1990, and generally decreases to about 98 in 1993. It generally increases to about 116 in 1998 and 2002, generally decreases to about 100 in 2005 and 2007 and then generally increases to end at about 128 in 2008. The "index of change in bank credit standards" series begins at about 20 in 1990, increases to about 53 in 1990, generally decreases to about -20 in 1993, and generally increases to about -42 in 2000. It generally decreases to about -20 in 2005 and 2006, and then generally increases to end at about 85 in 2008.

Recent Movements in Measures of Financial Turmoil
SLOOS index
April survey 76.7
July survey 80.5
October survey 88.0
Financial stress index
August average 113.2
September average 118.8
October average 128.3

Selected Estimates of the Effects of Financial Turmoil on Real GDP:
Date of Estimate and Data source Methodology Percent deviation from Q4 baseline level
2007 2008 2009 2010
October Greenbook
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
Index of survey responses FRB/US1 -.3 -2.9 -3.6 -2.2
Commercial loan credit standards VAR2 -.2 -1.3 -3.1 -4.0
Change in bank credit standards3 VAR2 -.1 -2.0 -4.3 -6.2
Capital markets data
9-variable stress index FRB/US2 -.1 -1.4 -3.2 -3.1
9-variable stress index FRB/US1 -.4 -2.3 -3.6 -3.1
9-variable stress index VAR2 0 -.8 -3.0 -5.4
September Greenbook
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
Index of survey responses FRB/US1 -.3 -2.8 -3.3 -2.1
Commercial loan credit standards VAR2 -.1 -.6 -.9 -.9
Change in bank credit standards3 VAR2 0 -1.2 -2.2 -3.1
Capital markets data
9-variable stress index FRB/US2 -.1 -1.4 -2.1 -1.7
9-variable stress index FRB/US1 -.4 -2.0 -2.4 -2.0
9-variable stress index VAR2 0 -.4 -1.3 -3.0
Memo item: Staff judgmental projection adjustments
October Greenbook -.3 -2.8 -3.8 -2.5
September Greenbook -.3 -1.8 -2.0 -1.3

Note: Because of methodological changes, some of the September estimates shown in the table differ from those reported in the last Greenbook.

1. Stress treated as exogenous and phased out over four quarters.  Return to table

2. Stress treated as endogenous and simulated as part of a system of equations.  Return to table

3. Series shown as the dashed line in the chart; includes standards on both business and consumer loans.  Return to table


Projections of Real GDP

(Percent change at annual rate from end of preceding period except as noted)
Measure 2008:H2 2009:H1 2009 2010
Real GDP -1.2 -.9 -.1 2.3
Previous .8 1.9 2.1 2.7
Final sales -2.1 -.9 -.5 2.3
Previous -.2 1.5 1.6 2.8
PCE -2.9 .4 1.0 2.4
Previous -1.1 1.7 1.9 2.6
Residential investment -22.1 -21.0 -15.8 13.4
Previous -18.8 -10.6 -6.2 17.1
BFI -4.7 -12.2 -10.9 4.1
Previous .4 -1.6 -.3 4.9
Government purchases 1.9 1.2 .9 .5
Previous 1.8 1.5 1.3 .8
Exports 5.3 3.1 2.8 3.9
Previous 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.1
Imports -.7 -.7 .9 4.3
Previous -.5 1.4 2.8 4.9
Contribution to growth (percentage points)
Inventory change 1.0 .0 .4 .0
Previous 1.0 .4 .4 -.1
Net exports .8 .5 .2 -.2
Previous .8 .5 .3 -.1

Decomposition of Structural Labor Productivity

Nonfarm Business Sector
(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)
Measure 1974-95 1996-2000 2001-06 2007 2008 2009 2010
Structural labor productivity 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8
Previous 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
Contributions1
Capital deepening .7 1.4 .7 .6 .5 .2 .3
Previous .7 1.4 .7 .7 .5 .5 .7
Multifactor productivity .5 .7 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4
Previous .5 .7 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2
Labor composition .3 .3 .3 .2 .2 .2 .1
Memo
Potential GDP 3.0 3.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3
Previous 3.0 3.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4

Note. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. For multiyear periods, the percent change is the annual average from Q4 of the year preceding the first year shown to Q4 of the last year shown.

1. Percentage points.  Return to table


The Outlook for the Labor Market

(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)
Measure 2007 2008 2009 2010
Output per hour, nonfarm business 2.7 1.7 1.7 2.2
Previous 2.7 2.4 1.8 2.1
Nonfarm private payroll employment .9 -1.2 -1.4 .7
Previous .9 -.9 .7 .9
Household survey employment .4 -.8 -.5 .8
Previous .4 -.6 .6 1.0
Labor force participation rate1 66.0 66.0 65.6 65.4
Previous 66.0 66.0 65.7 65.5
Civilian unemployment rate1 4.8 6.3 7.2 7.2
Previous 4.8 6.2 6.2 5.9
Memo
GDP gap2 -.2 -2.3 -4.7 -4.7
Previous -.2 -1.2 -1.6 -1.4

1. Percent, average for the fourth quarter.  Return to table

2. Actual less potential GDP in the fourth quarter of the year indicated as a percent of potential GDP. A negative number thus indicates that the economy is operating below potential.  Return to table


Inflation Projections

(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)
Measure 2007 2008 2009 2010
PCE chain-weighted price index 3.5 2.8 1.4 1.4
Previous 3.5 3.5 2.2 1.9
Food and beverages 4.5 6.2 2.2 1.4
Previous 4.5 6.1 3.2 2.1
Energy 19.1 -1.0 -2.3 3.3
Previous 19.1 10.8 1.2 .8
Excluding food and energy 2.2 2.4 1.5 1.3
Previous 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.9
Consumer price index 4.0 2.8 1.5 1.7
Previous 4.0 4.0 2.3 2.0
Excluding food and energy 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.5
Previous 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.1
GDP chain-weighted price index 2.6 3.0 1.6 1.3
Previous 2.6 2.9 2.2 1.9
ECI for compensation of private industry workers1 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.5
Previous 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.0
Compensation per hour, nonfarm business sector 3.6 4.0 3.1 2.1
Previous 3.6 4.1 3.9 3.6
Prices of core goods imports2 3.4 5.5 -.5 1.5
Previous 3.4 7.1 1.0 1.3

1. December to December.  Return to table

2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas.  Return to table


The Long-Term Outlook

(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)
Measure 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP 0.3 -0.1 2.3 4.4 4.9 4.8
Civilian unemployment rate1 6.3 7.2 7.2 6.4 5.4 4.5
PCE prices, total 2.8 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0
Core PCE prices 2.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0
Federal funds rate1 1.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.4

1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period.  Return to table


Alternative Scenarios

(Percent change, annual rate, from end of preceding period except as noted)
Measure and scenario 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-13
H1 H2
Real GDP
Greenbook extension 1.8 -1.2 -0.1 2.3 4.4 4.9
More financial fallout 1.8 -1.6 -2.0 1.0 4.1 5.4
More rapid financial recovery 1.8 -0.9 1.8 4.5 3.5 3.1
Fiscal stimulus 1.8 -1.2 0.2 2.3 4.2 4.9
Bigger fiscal stimulus 1.8 -1.2 0.6 2.6 3.6 5.0
Higher inflation 1.8 -1.2 -0.2 2.2 4.3 4.2
Unemployment rate1
Greenbook extension 5.3 6.3 7.2 7.2 6.4 4.5
More financial fallout 5.3 6.3 7.8 8.4 7.7 5.2
More rapid financial recovery 5.3 6.3 6.6 5.8 5.1 4.6
Fiscal stimulus 5.3 6.3 7.0 7.1 6.4 4.5
Bigger fiscal stimulus 5.3 6.3 7.0 6.8 6.3 4.4
Higher inflation 5.3 6.3 7.2 7.3 6.5 5.0
Core PCE inflation
Greenbook extension 2.2 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0
More financial fallout 2.2 2.7 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4
More rapid financial recovery 2.2 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5
Fiscal stimulus 2.2 2.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1
Bigger fiscal stimulus 2.2 2.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2
Higher inflation 2.2 2.8 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3
Federal funds rate1
Greenbook extension 2.1 1.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.4
More financial fallout 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.4
More rapid financial recovery 2.1 1.4 1.4 3.2 4.6 4.8
Fiscal stimulus 2.1 1.3 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.4
Bigger fiscal stimulus 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.3
Higher inflation 2.1 1.1 0.6 1.0 3.1 5.8

1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period.  Return to table


Selected Greenbook Projections and 70 Percent Confidence Intervals Derived from Historical Greenbook Forecast Errors and FRB/US Simulations

Measure 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP (percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Projection 0.3 -0.1 2.3 4.4 4.9 4.8
Confidence interval
Greenbook forecast errors -.1-.8 -1.6-1.4 .9-3.6
FRB/US stochastic simulations -.2-.8 -1.3-1.0 .9-3.5 3.0-5.9 3.4-6.6 3.3-6.6
Civilian unemployment rate (percent, Q4)
Projection 6.3 7.2 7.2 6.4 5.4 4.5
Confidence interval
Greenbook forecast errors 6.2-6.4 6.6-7.8 6.2-8.2
FRB/US stochastic simulations 6.1-6.5 6.8-7.7 6.7-7.8 5.8-7.1 4.8-6.1 3.8-5.2
PCE prices, total (percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Projection 2.8 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0
Confidence interval
Greenbook forecast errors 2.5-3.0 .6-2.2 .4-2.5
FRB/US stochastic simulations 2.5-3.0 .7-2.1 .6-2.2 .3-2.0 .1-1.9 .1-2.0
PCE prices excluding food and energy (percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Projection 2.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0
Confidence interval
Greenbook forecast errors 2.2-2.7 .9-2.1 .4-2.3
FRB/US stochastic simulations 2.3-2.6 1.1-1.9 .7-1.9 .4-1.8 .2-1.7 .3-1.8
Federal funds rate (percent, Q4)
Projection 1.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.4
Confidence interval
FRB/US stochastic simulations .9-1.4 .0-1.7 .0-2.5 .4-3.4 1.0-4.2 1.9-5.1

Notes: Intervals derived from Greenbook forecast errors are based on projections made from 1987-2007. Shocks underlying FRB/US stochastic simulations are randomly drawn from the 1987-2007 set of model equation residuals.

… Not applicable. The Greenbook forecast horizon has typically extended about two years.  Return to table


Forecast Confidence Intervals and Alternative Scenarios under the Assumption that Monetary Policy Follows an Estimated Taylor Rule

Confidence Intervals based on FRB/US Stochastic Simulations

Figure: Real GDP
4-quarter percent change
Period 90 percent lower bound 70 percent lower bound Greenbook extension 70 percent upper bound 90 percent upper bound More financial fallout More rapid financial recovery Fiscal stimulus Bigger fiscal stimulus Higher inflation
2007:Q1 ND ND 1.25 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2007:Q2 ND ND 1.77 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2007:Q3 ND ND 2.75 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2007:Q4 ND ND 2.33 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2008:Q1 ND ND 2.54 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2008:Q2 ND ND 2.05 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2008:Q3 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61
2008:Q4 -0.60 -0.23 0.33 0.85 1.12 0.12 0.49 0.33 0.33 0.33
2009:Q1 -1.41 -0.97 -0.24 0.48 0.94 -0.84 0.20 0.39 0.19 -0.21
2009:Q2 -2.44 -1.95 -1.04 -0.11 0.43 -2.15 -0.17 -0.32 -0.45 -1.04
2009:Q3 -2.30 -1.73 -0.69 0.39 1.03 -2.28 0.71 -0.26 -0.04 -0.71
2009:Q4 -1.88 -1.26 -0.12 1.03 1.71 -2.00 1.81 0.22 0.56 -0.18
2010:Q1 -1.24 -0.62 0.61 1.79 2.54 -1.29 2.91 0.25 1.00 0.48
2010:Q2 -0.73 -0.05 1.22 2.46 3.21 -0.55 3.73 0.76 1.51 1.08
2010:Q3 -0.23 0.45 1.75 3.01 3.75 0.16 4.27 1.59 2.07 1.60
2010:Q4 0.13 0.89 2.26 3.53 4.35 0.93 4.43 2.25 2.58 2.13
2011:Q1 0.71 1.49 2.92 4.21 5.03 1.83 4.39 2.76 2.37 2.82
2011:Q2 1.39 2.17 3.60 4.95 5.76 2.82 4.21 3.45 2.93 3.54
2011:Q3 1.90 2.69 4.13 5.53 6.35 3.63 3.89 3.97 3.31 4.06
2011:Q4 2.15 3.02 4.45 5.89 6.74 4.19 3.52 4.25 3.66 4.34
2012:Q1 2.27 3.16 4.59 6.08 6.97 4.55 3.34 4.60 4.49 4.41
2012:Q2 2.26 3.18 4.61 6.13 6.94 4.74 3.16 4.64 4.65 4.32
2012:Q3 2.27 3.25 4.70 6.24 7.12 4.95 3.13 4.73 4.81 4.28
2012:Q4 2.56 3.41 4.93 6.58 7.45 5.29 3.26 4.95 4.98 4.39
2013:Q1 2.65 3.52 5.05 6.74 7.71 5.51 3.31 5.09 5.17 4.39
2013:Q2 2.67 3.53 5.07 6.81 7.82 5.62 3.26 5.09 5.13 4.31
2013:Q3 2.65 3.52 5.02 6.81 7.81 5.65 3.15 5.05 5.07 4.19
2013:Q4 2.39 3.32 4.84 6.59 7.59 5.54 2.93 4.87 4.90 3.96

Figure: Unemployment Rate
Percent
Period 90 percent lower bound 70 percent lower bound Greenbook extension 70 percent upper bound 90 percent upper bound More financial fallout More rapid financial recovery Fiscal stimulus Bigger fiscal stimulus Higher inflation
2007:Q1 ND ND 4.49 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2007:Q2 ND ND 4.51 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2007:Q3 ND ND 4.68 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2007:Q4 ND ND 4.80 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2008:Q1 ND ND 4.94 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2008:Q2 ND ND 5.32 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2008:Q3 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95
2008:Q4 6.04 6.13 6.29 6.46 6.56 6.33 6.26 6.29 6.29 6.29
2009:Q1 6.22 6.37 6.62 6.87 7.02 6.75 6.52 6.50 6.53 6.61
2009:Q2 6.41 6.58 6.92 7.24 7.42 7.19 6.70 6.71 6.76 6.91
2009:Q3 6.54 6.76 7.14 7.52 7.72 7.58 6.76 6.95 6.93 7.14
2009:Q4 6.57 6.80 7.23 7.66 7.91 7.85 6.64 7.06 6.99 7.24
2010:Q1 6.57 6.83 7.30 7.78 8.06 8.09 6.48 7.16 7.02 7.33
2010:Q2 6.53 6.81 7.31 7.81 8.15 8.25 6.25 7.18 6.99 7.35
2010:Q3 6.46 6.76 7.28 7.81 8.17 8.35 6.00 7.16 6.93 7.33
2010:Q4 6.39 6.69 7.22 7.79 8.14 8.39 5.77 7.10 6.84 7.28
2011:Q1 6.19 6.51 7.07 7.67 8.03 8.31 5.55 6.98 6.81 7.13
2011:Q2 5.95 6.28 6.85 7.48 7.85 8.14 5.35 6.79 6.68 6.92
2011:Q3 5.69 6.03 6.62 7.26 7.66 7.91 5.19 6.57 6.51 6.70
2011:Q4 5.44 5.81 6.40 7.07 7.46 7.68 5.09 6.36 6.31 6.49
2012:Q1 5.20 5.55 6.17 6.87 7.24 7.41 5.01 6.13 6.10 6.28
2012:Q2 4.93 5.31 5.93 6.63 7.01 7.13 4.94 5.89 5.86 6.08
2012:Q3 4.69 5.07 5.69 6.37 6.77 6.82 4.88 5.65 5.62 5.88
2012:Q4 4.40 4.80 5.43 6.13 6.54 6.49 4.80 5.39 5.36 5.67
2013:Q1 4.10 4.51 5.17 5.87 6.27 6.15 4.73 5.13 5.10 5.48
2013:Q2 3.84 4.22 4.93 5.61 6.04 5.81 4.68 4.88 4.84 5.30
2013:Q3 3.57 3.98 4.70 5.36 5.79 5.48 4.64 4.65 4.61 5.14
2013:Q4 3.35 3.77 4.49 5.17 5.56 5.17 4.62 4.44 4.40 5.01

Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
4-quarter percent change
Period 90 percent lower bound 70 percent lower bound Greenbook extension 70 percent upper bound 90 percent upper bound More financial fallout More rapid financial recovery Fiscal stimulus Bigger fiscal stimulus Higher inflation
2007:Q1 ND ND 2.347 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2007:Q2 ND ND 2.068 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2007:Q3 ND ND 2.014 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2007:Q4 ND ND 2.203 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2008:Q1 ND ND 2.178 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2008:Q2 ND ND 2.260 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2008:Q3 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500
2008:Q4 2.199 2.299 2.441 2.590 2.699 2.447 2.389 2.441 2.441 2.513
2009:Q1 1.978 2.132 2.342 2.571 2.692 2.346 2.346 2.335 2.337 2.462
2009:Q2 1.687 1.907 2.188 2.483 2.658 2.173 2.285 2.195 2.192 2.410
2009:Q3 1.153 1.412 1.764 2.133 2.357 1.707 1.965 1.805 1.791 2.116
2009:Q4 0.818 1.115 1.534 1.935 2.201 1.401 1.920 1.602 1.588 1.988
2010:Q1 0.607 0.939 1.407 1.869 2.150 1.184 1.855 1.500 1.495 2.033
2010:Q2 0.488 0.840 1.356 1.844 2.149 1.036 1.821 1.455 1.473 2.135
2010:Q3 0.418 0.769 1.331 1.855 2.175 0.917 1.807 1.420 1.472 2.248
2010:Q4 0.332 0.696 1.306 1.870 2.220 0.809 1.775 1.393 1.474 2.341
2011:Q1 0.240 0.618 1.262 1.855 2.220 0.696 1.742 1.359 1.468 2.379
2011:Q2 0.150 0.541 1.201 1.835 2.186 0.593 1.699 1.302 1.419 2.383
2011:Q3 0.074 0.489 1.146 1.800 2.180 0.521 1.655 1.246 1.357 2.392
2011:Q4 -0.029 0.405 1.082 1.778 2.148 0.456 1.587 1.179 1.277 2.375
2012:Q1 -0.091 0.335 1.030 1.728 2.133 0.427 1.535 1.125 1.205 2.356
2012:Q2 -0.157 0.289 0.993 1.706 2.103 0.406 1.497 1.088 1.163 2.343
2012:Q3 -0.205 0.256 0.969 1.677 2.074 0.392 1.478 1.068 1.146 2.333
2012:Q4 -0.222 0.236 0.960 1.671 2.068 0.384 1.477 1.063 1.146 2.322
2013:Q1 -0.231 0.230 0.960 1.703 2.074 0.369 1.488 1.065 1.150 2.316
2013:Q2 -0.220 0.215 0.970 1.713 2.124 0.354 1.513 1.079 1.167 2.298
2013:Q3 -0.213 0.235 0.989 1.733 2.176 0.345 1.548 1.102 1.195 2.275
2013:Q4 -0.199 0.279 1.018 1.783 2.230 0.344 1.594 1.134 1.230 2.250

Figure: Federal Funds Rate
Percent
Period 90 percent lower bound 70 percent lower bound Greenbook extension 70 percent upper bound 90 percent upper bound More financial fallout More rapid financial recovery Fiscal stimulus Bigger fiscal stimulus Higher inflation
2007:Q1 ND ND 5.26 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2007:Q2 ND ND 5.25 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2007:Q3 ND ND 5.07 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2007:Q4 ND ND 4.50 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2008:Q1 ND ND 3.18 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2008:Q2 ND ND 2.09 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND
2008:Q3 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
2008:Q4 0.70 0.87 1.15 1.42 1.53 1.01 1.39 1.20 1.10 1.03
2009:Q1 0.00 0.06 0.60 1.15 1.42 0.49 1.07 0.65 0.55 0.59
2009:Q2 -0.00 0.00 0.50 1.34 1.74 0.49 1.00 0.55 0.45 0.55
2009:Q3 -0.00 0.00 0.50 1.56 2.08 0.49 1.13 0.55 0.45 0.55
2009:Q4 -0.00 0.00 0.50 1.72 2.37 0.49 1.43 0.55 0.45 0.56
2010:Q1 -0.00 0.00 0.50 1.85 2.56 0.49 1.82 0.55 0.45 0.57
2010:Q2 -0.00 0.00 0.50 1.93 2.70 0.49 2.26 0.55 0.45 0.59
2010:Q3 -0.00 0.00 0.75 2.23 3.00 0.49 2.73 0.80 0.70 0.71
2010:Q4 -0.00 0.03 1.00 2.52 3.35 0.49 3.19 1.05 0.95 1.01
2011:Q1 -0.00 0.07 1.20 2.74 3.58 0.49 3.62 1.25 1.15 1.44
2011:Q2 0.00 0.15 1.40 2.95 3.83 0.49 4.00 1.45 1.35 1.97
2011:Q3 0.00 0.25 1.60 3.14 4.05 0.49 4.33 1.65 1.55 2.54
2011:Q4 0.00 0.36 1.80 3.40 4.26 0.49 4.60 1.85 1.75 3.12
2012:Q1 0.00 0.50 2.00 3.61 4.43 0.49 4.81 2.05 1.95 3.69
2012:Q2 0.00 0.68 2.20 3.79 4.68 0.49 4.97 2.25 2.15 4.22
2012:Q3 0.12 0.85 2.40 3.97 4.85 0.49 5.06 2.45 2.35 4.69
2012:Q4 0.23 1.03 2.60 4.21 5.07 0.51 5.10 2.65 2.55 5.08
2013:Q1 0.35 1.24 2.80 4.42 5.29 0.60 5.09 2.85 2.75 5.39
2013:Q2 0.55 1.45 3.00 4.64 5.55 0.79 5.04 3.05 2.95 5.61
2013:Q3 0.77 1.68 3.20 4.84 5.75 1.06 4.95 3.25 3.15 5.75
2013:Q4 0.97 1.90 3.40 5.08 5.98 1.38 4.82 3.45 3.35 5.82


Evolution of the Staff Forecast

Figure: Change in Real GDP

A line chart shows four series, "2007", "2008", "2009", and "2010", from January 25, 2006, through December 10, 2008. Unit is percent, Q4/Q4. The 2007 series begins at about 3.0 percent on January 25, 2006, generally decreases to about 2.1 by September 13, 2006, and fluctuates between about 1.9 and 2.25 through October 24, 2007. It then generally increases to about 2.5 on July 30, 2008, and decreases to end at about 2.25 on October 22, 2008. The 2008 series begins at about 2.4 percent on September 13, 2006, fluctuates between about 2.25 and 2.5 through June 20, 2007, and generally decreases to about 0.1 on March 13, 2008. It then generally increases to about 1.5 on September 10, 2008, and decreases to end at about 0.25 on October 22, 2008. The 2009 series begins at about 2.2 percent on September 12, 2007, generally increases to about 3.0 on March 13, 2008, and generally decreases to end at about -0.1 on October 22, 2008. The 2010 series begins at about 2.75 percent on September 10, 2008, and decreases to end at about 2.25 on October 22, 2008.

Figure: Unemployment Rate

A line shows unemployment rate for "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is percent, fourth quarter. The 2007 series begins at about 5.1 percent on January 25, 2006, decreases to about 4.9 on March 22, and increases to about 5.2 on June 21. It then decreases to about 4.7 on June 20, 2007 and stays about the same through December 5, 2007, and then increases to about 4.8 on January 23, 2008, stays about the same to end on October 22, 3008. The 2008 series begins at about 5.2 percent on September 13, 2006, decreases to about 4.9 on January 24, 2007, increases to about 5.1 on March 14, and decreases to about 4.8 on June 20, 2007. It then increases to about 5.7 on March 13, 2008, stays about the same on April 23, 2008, decreases to about 5.6 on June 18, 2008 and increases to end at about 6.25 on October 22, 2008. The 2009 series begins at about 4.9 percent on September 9, 2007, decreases to about 4.8 on October 24, 2007, then increases to about 5.5 on March 13, 2008, stays about the same on April 23, 2008 and increases to end at about 7.2 on October 22, 2008. The 2010 series begins at about 5.9 on September 10, 2008, and increases to end at about 7.2 on October 22, 2008.

Figure: Change in PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy

A line chart shows three series, "2007", "2008", and "2009" from 2006 through December 10, 2008 of "Greenbook publication date". Unit is Percent, Q4/Q4. The 2007 series begins at about 1.75 percent on January 25, 2006, increases to about 2.3 on September 13, 2006, stays generally the same through May 2, decreases to about 1.75 on October 24, 2007, and then increases to about 2.1 on January 23, 2008. It stays about the same through July 30, 2008 and then increases to end at about 2.25 on October 22, 2008. The 2008 series begins at about 2.1 percent on September 13, 2006, stays generally the same through May 2, decreases to about 1.9 on September 12, then increases to about 2.25 on March 13, 2008 and stays about the same through July 30, 2008. The series then increases and ends at about 2.4 on October 22, 2008. The 2009 series begins at about 1.9 percent on September 12, 2007 and stays the same through March 13, 2008. It then increases to about 2.25 on July 30, 2008, and decreases to end at about 1.5 on October 22, 2008. The 2010 series begins at about 1.9 on September 10, 2008, and decreases to end at about 1.25 on October 22, 2008.


Changes in GDP, Prices, and Unemployment

(Percent, annual rate except as noted)
Interval Nominal GDP Real GDP PCE price index Core PCE price index Unemployment rate1
09/10/08 10/22/08 09/10/08 10/22/08 09/10/08 10/22/08 09/10/08 10/22/08 09/10/08 10/22/08
Quarterly
2008: Q1 3.5 3.5 .9 .9 3.6 3.6 2.3 2.3 4.9 4.9
Q2 4.7 4.1 3.5 2.8 4.2 4.3 2.1 2.2 5.3 5.3
Q3 5.5 3.0 .6 -1.0 5.5 5.6 2.9 3.1 6.0 6.0
Q4 3.8 2.9 1.1 -1.3 .6 -2.2 2.6 2.3 6.2 6.3
2009: Q1 4.0 .6 1.6 -1.4 2.3 .7 2.4 1.9 6.2 6.6
Q2 4.6 1.2 2.2 -.4 2.4 1.7 2.2 1.6 6.2 6.9
Q3 4.4 1.8 2.2 .4 2.2 1.6 2.1 1.4 6.2 7.1
Q4 4.3 2.3 2.3 1.0 2.0 1.6 2.0 1.4 6.2 7.2
2010: Q1 4.3 2.7 2.4 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.0 1.4 6.1 7.3
Q2 4.6 3.4 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.4 6.0 7.3
Q3 4.7 3.8 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.3 5.9 7.3
Q4 4.8 4.3 2.9 3.0 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.3 5.9 7.2
Two-quarter2
2008: Q2 4.1 3.8 2.2 1.8 3.9 3.9 2.2 2.2 .5 .5
Q4 4.7 3.0 .8 -1.2 3.0 1.6 2.7 2.7 .9 1.0
2009: Q2 4.3 .9 1.9 -.9 2.4 1.2 2.3 1.7 .0 .6
Q4 4.3 2.1 2.3 .7 2.1 1.6 2.0 1.4 .0 .3
2010: Q2 4.5 3.1 2.5 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.4 -.2 .1
Q4 4.8 4.0 2.8 2.8 1.8 1.4 1.9 1.3 -.1 -.1
Four-quarter3
2007:Q4 4.9 4.9 2.3 2.3 3.5 3.5 2.2 2.2 .4 .4
2008:Q4 4.4 3.4 1.5 .3 3.5 2.8 2.4 2.4 1.4 1.5
2009:Q4 4.3 1.5 2.1 -.1 2.2 1.4 2.1 1.5 .0 .9
2010:Q4 4.6 3.5 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.3 -.3 .0
Annual
2007 4.8 4.8 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.2 4.6 4.6
2008 4.3 3.8 1.9 1.4 3.8 3.6 2.3 2.3 5.6 5.6
2009 4.4 1.9 1.7 -.5 2.5 1.3 2.3 2.0 6.2 7.0
2010 4.5 2.8 2.5 1.5 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.3 5.9 7.3

1. Level, except for two-quarter and four-quarter intervals.  Return to table

2. Percent change from two quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points.  Return to table

3. Percent change from four quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points.  Return to table


Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items

(Percent, annual rate except as noted)
Item 2008 2009 2010 2008 1 2009 1 2010 1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Real GDP .9 2.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.4 -.4 .4 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 .3 -.1 2.3
Previous .9 3.5 .6 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 1.5 2.1 2.7
Final sales .9 4.4 -.8 -3.5 -1.4 -.4 -.2 .1 1.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 .2 -.5 2.3
Previous .9 5.0 .0 -.4 .8 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.8 3.6 3.4 2.4 1.4 1.6 2.8
Priv. dom. final purch. -.3 .7 -3.5 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 -.6 .3 1.8 2.7 3.3 3.9 -1.9 -1.1 2.9
Previous -.3 1.3 -1.2 -2.1 .5 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.5 -.6 1.3 3.3
Personal cons. expend. .9 1.2 -3.3 -2.4 -.1 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 -.9 1.0 2.4
Previous .9 1.7 -.5 -1.6 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 .1 1.9 2.6
Durables -4.3 -2.8 -16.2 -3.9 -.2 1.7 3.1 3.3 5.2 5.7 4.7 5.4 -7.0 2.0 5.3
Nondurables -.4 3.9 -6.2 -6.8 -1.3 .4 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.2 -2.5 .6 2.6
Services 2.4 .7 .7 .0 .5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.2 .9 1.1 1.8
Residential investment -25.1 -13.3 -19.7 -24.4 -24.8 -17.0 -17.1 -2.8 4.6 14.9 15.1 19.5 -20.8 -15.8 13.4
Previous -25.1 -13.4 -17.6 -20.0 -15.9 -4.9 -6.7 4.0 10.0 19.0 21.6 18.2 -19.1 -6.2 17.1
Business fixed invest. 2.4 2.5 .8 -9.9 -12.6 -11.9 -10.6 -8.3 -.5 2.7 6.3 8.2 -1.2 -10.9 4.1
Previous 2.4 3.5 .1 .7 -1.3 -2.0 .7 1.4 4.2 4.3 5.6 5.6 1.7 -.3 4.9
Equipment & software -.6 -5.0 -2.0 -11.1 -11.4 -8.4 -6.8 -4.0 6.0 9.0 12.1 14.0 -4.7 -7.7 10.2
Previous -.6 -3.5 -2.9 4.1 1.9 1.2 4.2 4.4 8.3 7.7 8.8 8.4 -.8 2.9 8.3
Nonres. structures 8.6 18.5 6.0 -7.7 -14.6 -17.8 -17.3 -16.0 -12.0 -9.1 -5.1 -3.5 5.9 -16.4 -7.5
Previous 8.6 18.5 5.8 -5.4 -7.2 -7.6 -5.7 -4.4 -3.3 -2.2 -.7 .1 6.5 -6.2 -1.6
Net exports2 -462 -381 -346 -335 -317 -303 -299 -307 -326 -313 -312 -326 -381 -307 -319
Previous2 -462 -377 -358 -329 -326 -298 -284 -292 -312 -291 -284 -303 -381 -300 -298
Exports 5.1 12.3 8.0 2.6 4.5 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.7 6.9 2.8 3.9
Imports -.8 -7.3 -1.0 -.3 .0 -1.3 .9 4.1 6.7 .4 3.3 6.9 -2.4 .9 4.3
Govt. cons. & invest. 1.9 3.9 4.8 -1.0 1.4 1.0 .7 .6 .9 .9 .1 .1 2.4 .9 .5
Previous 1.9 4.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 .8 .8 .8 .8 2.4 1.3 .8
Federal 5.8 6.6 10.2 -3.1 3.9 3.4 2.6 2.3 3.0 3.1 .9 .9 4.8 3.0 2.0
Defense 7.3 7.3 15.9 -4.0 5.0 4.1 3.0 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 6.4 3.6 2.0
Nondefense 2.9 5.0 -1.4 -1.1 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.1 5.5 5.5 -1.5 -1.5 1.3 1.8 2.0
State & local -.3 2.5 1.8 .3 .0 -.3 -.4 -.4 -.4 -.4 -.4 -.5 1.1 -.3 -.4
Change in bus. inventories2 -10 -51 -57 1 2 2 18 43 56 35 30 38 -29 16 40
Previous2 -10 -52 -37 2 22 24 28 47 61 35 20 33 -24 30 37
Nonfarm2 -18 -55 -60 0 1 1 17 42 55 34 29 37 -33 15 39
Farm2 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated.  Return to table

2. Billions of chained (2000) dollars.  Return to table


Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items

(Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted)
Item 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Real GDP 1.9 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 .3 -.1 2.3
Previous 1.9 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 1.5 2.1 2.7
Final sales .8 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 .2 -.5 2.3
Previous .8 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 1.4 1.6 2.8
Priv. dom. final purch. 1.1 4.1 4.3 3.1 2.3 1.4 -1.9 -1.1 2.9
Previous 1.1 4.1 4.3 3.1 2.3 1.4 -.6 1.3 3.3
Personal cons. expend. 1.9 3.4 3.7 2.6 3.2 2.2 -.9 1.0 2.4
Previous 1.9 3.4 3.7 2.6 3.2 2.2 .1 1.9 2.6
Durables 1.2 8.3 5.6 1.2 6.9 4.2 -7.0 2.0 5.3
Nondurables 2.1 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.2 1.7 -2.5 .6 2.6
Services 1.9 2.2 3.3 2.4 2.6 2.1 .9 1.1 1.8
Residential investment 7.0 11.7 6.7 5.4 -15.5 -19.0 -20.8 -15.8 13.4
Previous 7.0 11.7 6.7 5.4 -15.5 -19.0 -19.1 -6.2 17.1
Business fixed invest. -6.5 4.9 7.5 4.9 6.5 6.4 -1.2 -10.9 4.1
Previous -6.5 4.9 7.5 4.9 6.5 6.4 1.7 -.3 4.9
Equipment & software -3.4 6.6 9.4 7.0 4.2 2.8 -4.7 -7.7 10.2
Previous -3.4 6.6 9.4 7.0 4.2 2.8 -.8 2.9 8.3
Nonres. structures -14.9 .2 2.3 -.5 12.8 14.5 5.9 -16.4 -7.5
Previous -14.9 .2 2.3 -.5 12.8 14.5 6.5 -6.2 -1.6
Net exports1 -471 -519 -594 -617 -616 -547 -381 -307 -319
Previous1 -471 -519 -594 -617 -616 -547 -381 -300 -298
Exports 3.8 5.8 7.4 7.0 10.1 8.9 6.9 2.8 3.9
Imports 9.7 4.8 11.5 4.8 3.8 1.1 -2.4 .9 4.3
Govt. cons. & invest. 4.0 1.7 .7 .6 2.1 2.4 2.4 .9 .5
Previous 4.0 1.7 .7 .6 2.1 2.4 2.4 1.3 .8
Federal 7.8 5.5 2.4 1.0 2.9 2.3 4.8 3.0 2.0
Defense 8.4 7.5 2.5 .8 4.1 2.7 6.4 3.6 2.0
Nondefense 6.8 1.9 2.3 1.4 .5 1.5 1.3 1.8 2.0
State & local 2.1 -.4 -.4 .3 1.6 2.4 1.1 -.3 -.4
Change in bus. inventories1 12 14 54 39 42 -2 -29 16 40
Previous1 12 14 54 39 42 -2 -24 30 37
Nonfarm1 15 14 48 39 46 -4 -33 15 39
Farm1 -2 0 6 0 -3 1 2 1 1

1. Billions of chained (2000) dollars.  Return to table


Contributions to Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product

(Percentage points, annual rate except as noted)
Item 2008 2009 2010 2008 1 2009 1 2010 1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Real GDP .9 2.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.4 -.4 .4 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 .3 -.1 2.3
Previous .9 3.5 .6 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 1.5 2.1 2.7
Final sales .9 4.3 -.8 -3.5 -1.4 -.4 -.2 .1 1.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 .2 -.5 2.3
Previous .9 5.0 .0 -.4 .8 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.8 3.6 3.3 2.4 1.4 1.6 2.8
Priv. dom. final purch. -.3 .6 -3.0 -3.8 -2.3 -1.1 -.5 .3 1.5 2.2 2.7 3.2 -1.6 -.9 2.4
Previous -.3 1.1 -1.0 -1.8 .4 .9 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.9 -.5 1.1 2.8
Personal cons. expend. .6 .9 -2.3 -1.7 -.1 .7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.0 -.7 .7 1.7
Previous .6 1.3 -.4 -1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 .1 1.3 1.8
Durables -.3 -.2 -1.3 -.3 .0 .1 .2 .2 .3 .4 .3 .4 -.5 .1 .3
Nondurables -.1 .8 -1.3 -1.5 -.3 .1 .3 .4 .4 .5 .6 .6 -.5 .1 .5
Services 1.0 .3 .3 .0 .2 .5 .6 .6 .6 .7 .9 1.0 .4 .5 .8
Residential investment -1.1 -.5 -.8 -.9 -.8 -.5 -.5 -.1 .1 .4 .4 .5 -.8 -.5 .3
Previous -1.1 -.5 -.7 -.7 -.5 -.1 -.2 .1 .3 .5 .6 .5 -.8 -.2 .5
Business fixed invest. .3 .3 .1 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -.8 .0 .3 .6 .8 -.1 -1.2 .4
Previous .3 .4 .0 .1 -.1 -.2 .1 .1 .4 .4 .6 .6 .2 .0 .5
Equipment & software .0 -.4 -.1 -.8 -.8 -.6 -.4 -.3 .4 .5 .7 .9 -.3 -.5 .6
Previous .0 -.3 -.2 .3 .1 .1 .3 .3 .6 .5 .6 .6 -.1 .2 .6
Nonres. structures .3 .6 .2 -.3 -.6 -.7 -.7 -.6 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .2 -.6 -.2
Previous .3 .6 .2 -.2 -.3 -.3 -.2 -.2 -.1 -.1 .0 .0 .2 -.2 -.1
Net exports .8 2.9 1.2 .4 .6 .5 .2 -.3 -.7 .4 .0 -.5 1.3 .2 -.2
Previous .8 3.1 .7 1.0 .1 1.0 .5 -.4 -.7 .7 .2 -.7 1.4 .3 -.1
Exports .6 1.5 1.0 .4 .6 .3 .3 .4 .4 .5 .6 .7 .9 .4 .5
Imports .1 1.4 .2 .1 .0 .2 -.2 -.7 -1.1 -.1 -.6 -1.1 .4 -.1 -.7
Govt. cons. & invest. .4 .8 1.0 -.2 .3 .2 .1 .1 .2 .2 .0 .0 .5 .2 .1
Previous .4 .8 .4 .3 .3 .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .5 .3 .2
Federal .4 .5 .7 -.2 .3 .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 .1 .1 .3 .2 .2
Defense .3 .4 .8 -.2 .3 .2 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .3 .2 .1
Nondefense .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0
State & local .0 .3 .2 .0 .0 .0 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 .1 .0 -.1
Change in bus. inventories .0 -1.5 -.2 2.2 .0 .0 .6 .9 .5 -.8 -.2 .3 .1 .4 .0
Previous .0 -1.5 .6 1.5 .8 .1 .2 .7 .6 -1.0 -.6 .5 .1 .4 -.1
Nonfarm .2 -1.4 -.2 2.3 .0 .0 .6 .9 .5 -.8 -.2 .3 .2 .4 .0
Farm -.2 -.1 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.1 .0 .0

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated.  Return to table


Changes in Prices and Costs

(Percent, annual rate except as noted)
Item 2008 2009 2010 2008 1 2009 1 2010 1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP chain-wt. price index 2.6 1.1 4.1 4.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 3.0 1.6 1.3
Previous 2.6 1.2 4.9 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.9 2.2 1.9
PCE chain-wt. price index 3.6 4.3 5.6 -2.2 .7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8 1.4 1.4
Previous 3.6 4.2 5.5 .6 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 3.5 2.2 1.9
Energy 19.0 27.4 31.7 -51.9 -17.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.9 -1.0 -2.3 3.3
Previous 19.0 27.6 34.7 -26.4 -1.4 3.0 2.1 1.2 1.0 .7 .7 .8 10.8 1.2 .8
Food 4.9 6.4 8.5 5.2 2.5 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 6.2 2.2 1.4
Previous 4.9 6.4 8.0 5.0 4.1 3.5 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 6.1 3.2 2.1
Ex. food & energy 2.3 2.2 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.4 1.5 1.3
Previous 2.3 2.1 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.9
CPI 4.3 5.0 6.7 -4.5 .3 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.8 1.5 1.7
Previous 4.3 5.0 7.2 -.4 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 2.3 2.0
Ex. food & energy 2.5 1.9 3.2 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.4 1.7 1.5
Previous 2.5 1.9 3.4 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.1
ECI, hourly compensation2 3.0 2.3 3.1 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.9 2.3 1.5
Previous2 3.0 2.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.0
Nonfarm business sector
Output per hour 2.6 3.6 -.3 .8 1.4 1.2 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.7 2.2
Previous 2.6 4.5 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 1.8 2.1
Compensation per hour 3.8 3.7 4.5 3.9 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 4.0 3.1 2.1
Previous 3.8 3.7 4.7 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.1 3.9 3.6
Unit labor costs 1.2 .1 4.8 3.0 1.9 2.0 .7 .9 -.1 .2 .0 -.5 2.2 1.4 -.1
Previous 1.2 -.7 3.7 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.5
Core goods imports chain-wt price index3 8.5 10.6 6.5 -2.9 -4.5 .2 .7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 5.5 -.5 1.5
Previous3 8.5 10.6 7.5 2.1 .5 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 7.1 1.0 1.3

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated.  Return to table

2. Private-industry workers.  Return to table

3. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas.  Return to table


Changes in Prices and Costs

(Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted)
Item 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP chain-wt. price index 1.7 2.2 3.2 3.5 2.8 2.6 3.0 1.6 1.3
Previous 1.7 2.2 3.2 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.2 1.9
PCE chain-wt. price index 1.8 1.9 3.1 3.3 1.9 3.5 2.8 1.4 1.4
Previous 1.8 1.9 3.1 3.3 1.9 3.5 3.5 2.2 1.9
Energy 7.7 7.6 18.3 23.1 -4.0 19.1 -1.0 -2.3 3.3
Previous 7.7 7.6 18.3 23.1 -4.0 19.1 10.8 1.2 .8
Food 1.3 2.6 2.9 2.1 2.3 4.5 6.2 2.2 1.4
Previous 1.3 2.6 2.9 2.1 2.3 4.5 6.1 3.2 2.1
Ex. food & energy 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 1.5 1.3
Previous 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.9
CPI 2.3 2.0 3.4 3.8 1.9 4.0 2.8 1.5 1.7
Previous 2.3 2.0 3.4 3.8 1.9 4.0 4.0 2.3 2.0
Ex. food & energy 2.1 1.2 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.5
Previous 2.1 1.2 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.1
ECI, hourly compensation1 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.5
Previous1 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.0
Nonfarm business sector
Output per hour 2.9 4.7 1.8 1.5 .6 2.7 1.7 1.7 2.2
Previous 2.9 4.7 1.8 1.5 .6 2.7 2.4 1.8 2.1
Compensation per hour 3.2 5.3 3.9 3.6 4.3 3.6 4.0 3.1 2.1
Previous 3.2 5.3 3.9 3.6 4.3 3.6 4.1 3.9 3.6
Unit labor costs .2 .5 2.1 2.1 3.6 .9 2.2 1.4 -.1
Previous .2 .5 2.1 2.1 3.6 .9 1.6 2.1 1.5
Core goods imports chain-wt. price index2 .1 1.6 3.6 2.2 2.4 3.4 5.5 -.5 1.5
Previous2 .1 1.6 3.6 2.2 2.4 3.4 7.1 1.0 1.3

1. Private-industry workers.  Return to table

2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil and natural gas.  Return to table


Other Macroeconomic Indicators

Item 2008 2009 2010 2008 1 2009 1 2010 1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Employment and production
Nonfarm payroll employment2 -.1 -.2 -.3 -.5 -.6 -.5 -.3 -.1 .0 .3 .1 .3 -1.1 -1.6 .8
Unemployment rate3 4.9 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 6.3 7.2 7.2
Previous3 4.9 5.3 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.2 5.9
GDP gap4 -.6 -.5 -1.4 -2.3 -3.2 -3.9 -4.3 -4.7 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9 -4.7 -2.3 -4.7 -4.7
Previous4 -.6 -.4 -.9 -1.2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.6 -1.4
  
Industrial production5 .4 -3.1 -6.0 -.6 -.1 -.1 1.4 2.5 1.7 2.7 3.1 3.3 -2.4 .9 2.7
Previous5 .4 -3.2 -2.6 4.1 3.2 2.2 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.7 -.4 3.0 3.8
Manufacturing industr. prod.5 -1.0 -3.8 -5.8 -4.8 -2.6 -.4 .9 1.9 2.2 3.2 3.5 3.9 -3.8 -.1 3.2
Previous5 -1.0 -3.9 -2.1 1.3 2.3 2.3 3.0 3.5 4.4 4.8 4.3 4.2 -1.5 2.8 4.5
Capacity utilization rate - mfg.3 78.7 77.6 76.1 74.9 74.3 74.1 74.1 74.4 74.7 75.1 75.7 76.3 74.9 74.4 76.3
Previous3 78.7 77.6 76.8 76.8 77.0 77.1 77.4 77.8 78.4 79.0 79.5 80.1 76.8 77.8 80.1
  
Housing starts6 1.1 1.0 .9 .8 .7 .7 .7 .7 .8 .9 1.0 1.1 .9 .7 .9
Light motor vehicle sales6 15.2 14.1 12.9 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.2 13.6 13.8 14.1 13.6 12.6 13.7
Income and saving
Nominal GDP5 3.5 4.1 3.0 2.9 .6 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.8 4.3 3.4 1.5 3.5
Real disposable pers. income5 -.7 11.9 -8.4 -.2 3.7 .3 .1 1.2 1.7 .9 2.7 2.4 .4 1.3 1.9
Previous5 -.7 11.4 -8.3 -1.5 4.3 1.5 1.5 2.6 3.6 1.9 3.4 2.8 .0 2.5 2.9
Personal saving rate3 .2 2.7 1.5 2.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.6
Previous3 .2 2.6 .7 .7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 .7 1.4 1.8
  
Corporate profits7 -4.3 -14.3 -6.3 -10.2 -4.6 -4.8 -.1 -.2 9.7 7.0 9.0 10.7 -8.9 -2.5 9.1
Profit share of GNP3 11.2 10.6 10.4 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.1 9.7 10.2
  
Net federal saving8 -331 -640 -496 -456 -539 -566 -576 -603 -635 -629 -650 -656 -481 -571 -642
Net state & local saving8 -52 -67 -94 -95 -99 -106 -105 -99 -92 -91 -83 -77 -77 -102 -86
  
Gross national saving rate3 12.4 11.6 11.3 11.9 11.6 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.9 10.9 11.0
Net national saving rate3 .0 -1.0 -1.4 -.7 -1.2 -1.6 -1.9 -2.1 -2.1 -2.2 -2.0 -1.9 -.7 -2.1 -1.9

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise indicated.  Return to table

2. Change, millions.  Return to table

3. Percent, annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  Return to table

4. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  Return to table

5. Percent change, annual rate.  Return to table

6. Level, millions, annual values are annual averages.  Return to table

7. Percent change, annual rate, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.  Return to table

8. Billions of dollars, annual values are annual averages.  Return to table


Other Macroeconomic Indicators

(Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted)
Item 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Employment and production
Nonfarm payroll employment1 -.7 -.1 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.2 -1.1 -1.6 .8
Unemployment rate2 5.8 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 6.3 7.2 7.2
Previous2 5.8 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 6.2 6.2 5.9
GDP gap3 -2.4 -1.6 -.6 -.1 .0 -.2 -2.3 -4.7 -4.7
Previous3 -2.4 -1.6 -.6 -.1 .0 -.2 -1.2 -1.6 -1.4
  
Industrial production4 2.6 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.7 2.1 -2.4 .9 2.7
Previous4 2.6 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.7 2.1 -.4 3.0 3.8
Manufacturing industr. prod.4 2.6 1.7 3.7 3.7 1.1 2.3 -3.8 -.1 3.2
Previous4 2.6 1.7 3.7 3.7 1.1 2.3 -1.5 2.8 4.5
Capacity utilization rate - mfg.2 73.2 74.8 77.5 79.2 79.0 79.3 74.9 74.4 76.3
Previous2 73.2 74.8 77.5 79.2 79.0 79.3 76.8 77.8 80.1
  
Housing starts5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.4 .9 .7 .9
Light motor vehicle sales5 16.7 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.5 16.1 13.6 12.6 13.7
Income and saving
Nominal GDP4 3.6 5.9 6.5 6.3 5.3 4.9 3.4 1.5 3.5
Real disposable pers. income4 2.9 3.7 4.1 .9 3.6 1.8 .4 1.3 1.9
Previous4 2.9 3.7 4.1 .9 3.6 1.8 .0 2.5 2.9
Personal saving rate2 1.8 2.2 2.5 .8 .9 .4 2.1 2.8 2.6
Previous2 1.8 2.2 2.5 .8 .9 .4 .7 1.4 1.8
  
Corporate profits6 20.6 12.6 20.3 18.8 6.9 -2.0 -8.9 -2.5 9.1
Profit share of GNP2 9.0 9.5 10.8 12.0 12.2 11.3 10.1 9.7 10.2
  
Net federal saving7 -248 -372 -371 -292 -201 -229 -481 -571 -642
Net state & local saving7 -34 -20 2 29 46 10 -77 -102 -86
  
Gross national saving rate2 13.6 13.7 13.8 15.0 15.5 13.4 11.9 10.9 11.0
Net national saving rate2 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.8 3.4 1.2 -.7 -2.1 -1.9

1. Change, millions.  Return to table

2. Percent, values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  Return to table

3. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  Return to table

4. Percent change.  Return to table

5. Level, millions, values are annual averages.  Return to table

6. Percent change, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.  Return to table

7. Billions of dollars, values are annual averages.  Return to table


Staff Projections of Federal Sector Accounts and Related Items

(Billions of dollars except as noted)
Item Fiscal year 2008 2009 2010
2007a 2008 2009 2010 Q1a Q2a Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Unified budget Not seasonally adjusted
Receipts1 2568 2524 2533 2636 540 788 590 580 518 795 640 611 554 814 657 636
Outlays1 2729 2979 3386 3224 746 761 759 1036 795 786 768 823 812 804 785 853
Surplus/deficit1 -162 -455 -853 -587 -206 27 -169 -456 -277 9 -128 -212 -258 11 -128 -218
Previous -162 -403 -455 -430 -206 44 -134 -144 -262 43 -92 -178 -230 64 -85 -175
On-budget -343 -638 -1016 -742 -237 -64 -171 -522 -290 -78 -127 -272 -268 -77 -126 -278
Off-budget 181 183 163 155 31 91 2 66 12 86 -1 60 10 88 -3 60
Means of financing
Borrowing 206 768 1030 605 200 -48 526 796 65 19 150 201 247 14 143 207
Cash decrease -23 -296 322 0 11 -7 -318 -228 575 -15 -10 15 15 -20 -10 15
Other2 -22 -17 -498 -18 -5 29 -39 -112 -362 -12 -12 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5
Cash operating balance, end of period 75 372 50 50 46 53 372 599 25 40 50 35 20 40 50 35
NIPA federal sector Seasonally adjusted annual rates
Receipts 2624 2616 2666 2746 2673 2488 2624 2645 2656 2661 2701 2716 2732 2753 2784 2817
Expenditures 2832 3042 3200 3375 3003 3128 3120 3101 3194 3226 3277 3319 3367 3381 3434 3473
Consumption expenditures 842 908 964 1011 898 918 945 941 960 972 984 994 1005 1018 1025 1032
Defense 569 623 667 697 614 629 656 651 664 673 681 688 693 700 706 713
Nondefense 273 285 297 314 284 289 289 290 296 299 303 306 312 319 319 319
Other spending 1990 2134 2236 2365 2105 2210 2175 2160 2234 2254 2294 2325 2362 2363 2409 2441
Current account surplus -209 -426 -534 -629 -331 -640 -496 -456 -539 -566 -576 -603 -635 -629 -650 -656
Gross investment 123 135 148 155 129 138 147 145 147 150 152 153 154 156 157 159
Gross saving less gross investment3 -221 -445 -560 -655 -344 -661 -525 -481 -564 -592 -603 -630 -661 -654 -675 -681
Fiscal indicators4
High-employment (HEB) surplus/deficit -229 -419 -398 -396 -329 -639 -462 -378 -423 -409 -383 -384 -405 -389 -406 -414
Change in HEB, percent of potential GDP -0.3 1.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 2.1 -1.3 -0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0
Fiscal impetus (FI), percent of GDP 0.2 0.7 -0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Previous 0.2 0.7 -0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1. Budget receipts, outlays, and surplus/deficit include corresponding social security (OASDI) categories. The OASDI surplus and the Postal Service surplus are excluded from the on-budget surplus and shown separately as off-budget, as classified under current law.  Return to table

2. Other means of financing are checks issued less checks paid, accrued items, and changes in other financial assets and liabilities.  Return to table

3. Gross saving is the current account surplus plus consumption of fixed capital of the general government as well as government enterprises.  Return to table

4. HEB is gross saving less gross investment (NIPA) of the federal government in current dollars, with cyclically sensitive receipts and outlays adjusted to the staff's measure of potential output and the NAIRU. Quarterly figures for change in HEB and FI are not at annual rates. The sign on Change in HEB, as a percent of nominal potential GDP, is reversed. FI is the weighted difference of discretionary changes in federal spending and taxes in chained (2000) dollars, scaled by real GDP. The annual FI estimates are on a calendar year basis. Also, for FI and the change in HEB, positive values indicate aggregate demand stimulus.  Return to table

a--Actual  Return to table


Change in Debt of the Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors

(Percent)
Period1 Total Households Business State and local governments Federal government Memo: Nominal GDP
Total Home mortgages Consumer credit
Year
2003 8.1 11.5 14.2 5.2 2.5 8.3 10.9 5.9
2004 8.9 11.2 13.7 5.5 6.2 7.4 9.0 6.5
2005 9.5 11.2 13.1 4.3 8.5 10.2 7.0 6.3
2006 9.1 10.2 11.2 4.5 10.5 8.1 3.9 5.3
   
2007 8.6 6.8 6.8 5.6 13.0 9.3 4.9 4.9
2008 7.3 1.2 .8 2.0 5.7 3.5 28.8 3.4
2009 2.8 -.4 -.8 -.5 3.9 5.9 6.6 1.5
2010 4.3 1.9 1.3 3.1 4.2 6.1 8.7 3.5
Quarter
2008: 1 5.4 3.3 2.6 5.1 7.4 3.4 8.1 3.5
2 3.5 1.4 .9 4.0 5.7 .9 5.9 4.1
3 8.9 .5 .2 -.0 5.3 6.9 39.2 3.0
4 10.8 -.3 -.4 -1.1 4.1 2.6 53.2 2.9
2009: 1 .9 -.7 -.9 -1.6 3.6 5.5 -2.0 .6
2 3.0 -.7 -1.1 -.7 3.5 5.5 8.8 1.2
3 3.3 -.4 -.8 -.1 4.1 6.1 8.5 1.8
4 3.8 .0 -.4 .4 4.0 6.0 10.5 2.3
2010: 1 3.8 .7 .0 1.9 4.2 6.1 8.5 2.7
2 4.0 1.5 .9 2.8 4.2 6.0 7.8 3.4
3 4.2 2.3 1.8 3.4 3.9 5.9 7.4 3.8
4 5.0 3.1 2.7 4.1 4.1 5.8 9.9 4.3

Note. Quarterly data are at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

1. Data after 2008:Q2 are staff projections. Changes are measured from end of the preceding period to end of period indicated except for annual nominal GDP growth, which is calculated from Q4 to Q4.  Return to table

2.6.3 FOF


Flow of Funds Projections: Highlights

(Billions of dollars at seasonally adjusted annual rates except as noted)
Category 2007 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Domestic nonfinancial sectors
Net funds raised
Total 1682.6 1916.0 654.6 1247.7 2480.2 3189.2 -24.4 707.6 870.8 1064.5 1065.5 1151.1 1221.3 1553.1
Net equity issuance -833.0 -410.4 -285.0 -260.0 -393.6 -380.0 -320.0 -300.0 -260.0 -260.0 -260.0 -260.0 -260.0 -260.0
Net debt issuance 2515.5 2326.4 939.6 1507.7 2873.8 3569.2 295.6 1007.6 1130.8 1324.5 1325.5 1411.1 1481.3 1813.1
Borrowing indicators
Debt (percent of GDP)1 220.6 229.4 236.2 237.9 227.7 231.7 234.7 235.1 235.8 236.6 237.2 237.5 237.7 238.0
Borrowing (percent of GDP) 18.2 16.2 6.4 10.0 20.0 24.6 2.0 6.9 7.7 9.0 8.9 9.4 9.8 11.9
Households
Net borrowing2 881.0 169.5 -60.2 269.9 63.5 -38.3 -98.6 -95.6 -50.3 3.6 95.9 214.2 327.0 442.3
Home mortgages 669.8 85.8 -85.1 141.8 23.6 -47.3 -94.5 -113.4 -85.1 -47.3 0.0 94.5 189.1 283.6
Consumer credit 136.0 51.2 -13.2 79.9 -0.0 -29.6 -41.1 -19.2 -3.8 11.5 48.7 72.3 89.7 109.0
Debt/DPI (percent)3 131.8 130.6 128.6 125.9 130.5 131.3 129.7 128.8 128.1 127.2 126.3 125.9 125.2 124.9
Business
Financing gap4 185.6 237.6 233.5 199.9 225.2 238.5 249.4 225.5 223.4 235.6 232.7 195.4 184.7 186.8
Net equity issuance -833.0 -410.4 -285.0 -260.0 -393.6 -380.0 -320.0 -300.0 -260.0 -260.0 -260.0 -260.0 -260.0 -260.0
Credit market borrowing 1211.6 606.4 431.3 481.4 579.6 453.4 398.4 398.3 466.5 462.2 482.9 492.3 464.7 485.5
State and local governments
Net borrowing 185.9 76.3 133.5 145.5 152.2 58.9 125.5 125.5 141.5 141.5 145.5 145.5 145.5 145.5
Current surplus5 246.6 149.2 111.6 135.4 112.8 113.9 112.3 107.0 109.9 117.2 126.7 129.2 138.5 147.2
Federal government
Net borrowing 237.1 1474.2 435.0 611.0 2078.5 3095.2 -129.7 579.5 573.1 717.2 601.2 559.0 544.1 739.8
Net borrowing (n.s.a.) 237.1 1474.2 435.0 611.0 526.5 795.9 64.6 18.9 150.1 201.4 247.4 13.7 142.9 207.0
Unified deficit (n.s.a.) 187.9 804.0 608.7 593.0 169.0 456.1 277.2 -8.5 128.1 211.9 257.9 -10.8 128.4 217.5
Depository institutions
Funds supplied 851.7 996.1 465.2 716.3 1930.2 1082.0 426.1 288.3 560.2 586.4 726.6 914.2 698.5 525.8

Note. Data after 2008:Q2 are staff projections.

1. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by nominal GDP.  Return to table

2. Includes change in liabilities not shown in home mortgages and consumer credit.  Return to table

3. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by disposable personal income.  Return to table

4. For corporations, excess of capital expenditures over U.S. internal funds.  Return to table

5. NIPA state and local government saving plus consumption of fixed capital and net capital transfers.  Return to table

n.s.a. Not seasonally adjusted.  Return to table

2.6.4 FOF


† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014