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October 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts†
Monetary Policy Strategies
Chart 7
Equilibrium Real Federal Funds Rate
Figure: Short-Run Estimates with Confidence Intervals
Percent
Period |
Lower bound of 90% confidence interval |
Lower bound of 70% confidence interval |
Lower bound of range of model-based estimates |
Actual real funds rate based on lagged core inflation |
Greenbook-consistent measure |
Upper bound of range of model-based estimates |
Upper bound of 70% confidence interval |
Upper bound of 90% confidence interval |
1990:Q1 |
-0.27 |
0.72 |
1.78 |
4.55 |
ND |
4.54 |
4.82 |
5.94 |
1990:Q2 |
-0.11 |
0.86 |
1.87 |
4.50 |
ND |
4.07 |
4.51 |
5.52 |
1990:Q3 |
-0.11 |
0.86 |
1.81 |
3.96 |
ND |
3.45 |
4.10 |
5.02 |
1990:Q4 |
-1.00 |
-0.05 |
0.72 |
3.31 |
ND |
2.89 |
3.44 |
4.41 |
1991:Q1 |
-1.29 |
-0.35 |
0.69 |
2.13 |
ND |
2.42 |
2.99 |
3.97 |
1991:Q2 |
-1.42 |
-0.43 |
0.55 |
1.61 |
ND |
2.50 |
3.01 |
3.98 |
1991:Q3 |
-1.16 |
-0.19 |
0.94 |
1.94 |
ND |
2.64 |
3.19 |
4.17 |
1991:Q4 |
-1.07 |
-0.11 |
0.88 |
1.17 |
ND |
2.62 |
3.20 |
4.16 |
1992:Q1 |
-0.99 |
0.01 |
0.86 |
0.28 |
ND |
2.96 |
3.45 |
4.42 |
1992:Q2 |
-0.68 |
0.29 |
1.20 |
0.19 |
ND |
3.04 |
3.63 |
4.56 |
1992:Q3 |
-0.53 |
0.42 |
1.33 |
-0.26 |
ND |
3.03 |
3.67 |
4.61 |
1992:Q4 |
-0.69 |
0.26 |
1.35 |
-0.24 |
ND |
2.78 |
3.45 |
4.38 |
1993:Q1 |
-0.46 |
0.47 |
1.60 |
0.01 |
ND |
2.96 |
3.66 |
4.57 |
1993:Q2 |
-0.70 |
0.27 |
1.16 |
0.34 |
ND |
2.55 |
3.42 |
4.30 |
1993:Q3 |
-0.88 |
0.09 |
1.08 |
0.35 |
ND |
2.30 |
3.16 |
4.04 |
1993:Q4 |
-0.83 |
0.12 |
1.13 |
0.52 |
ND |
2.40 |
3.22 |
4.11 |
1994:Q1 |
-0.48 |
0.45 |
1.52 |
0.94 |
ND |
3.00 |
3.68 |
4.60 |
1994:Q2 |
-0.49 |
0.42 |
1.67 |
1.76 |
ND |
2.38 |
3.41 |
4.28 |
1994:Q3 |
-0.30 |
0.57 |
1.83 |
2.39 |
ND |
2.20 |
3.49 |
4.33 |
1994:Q4 |
-0.44 |
0.47 |
1.62 |
2.74 |
ND |
2.18 |
3.40 |
4.25 |
1995:Q1 |
-0.08 |
0.83 |
1.86 |
3.37 |
ND |
2.70 |
3.80 |
4.65 |
1995:Q2 |
-0.21 |
0.76 |
1.56 |
3.58 |
ND |
2.73 |
3.86 |
4.70 |
1995:Q3 |
-0.43 |
0.64 |
1.29 |
3.47 |
ND |
3.47 |
4.11 |
5.05 |
1995:Q4 |
-0.30 |
0.73 |
1.50 |
3.69 |
ND |
3.55 |
4.13 |
5.07 |
1996:Q1 |
-0.26 |
0.75 |
1.60 |
3.34 |
ND |
3.55 |
4.12 |
5.08 |
1996:Q2 |
-0.33 |
0.67 |
1.60 |
3.25 |
ND |
3.64 |
4.13 |
5.16 |
1996:Q3 |
0.23 |
1.21 |
2.12 |
3.45 |
ND |
4.19 |
4.70 |
5.67 |
1996:Q4 |
0.17 |
1.20 |
2.03 |
3.51 |
ND |
4.13 |
4.66 |
5.60 |
1997:Q1 |
0.28 |
1.31 |
2.14 |
3.45 |
ND |
4.31 |
4.83 |
5.84 |
1997:Q2 |
0.20 |
1.20 |
2.09 |
3.79 |
ND |
4.07 |
4.60 |
5.58 |
1997:Q3 |
0.61 |
1.67 |
2.42 |
3.78 |
4.11 |
4.72 |
5.23 |
6.22 |
1997:Q4 |
0.81 |
1.83 |
2.58 |
3.94 |
4.30 |
5.36 |
5.72 |
6.76 |
1998:Q1 |
0.60 |
1.65 |
2.41 |
4.17 |
4.33 |
4.46 |
5.07 |
6.02 |
1998:Q2 |
0.74 |
1.77 |
2.51 |
4.18 |
4.16 |
4.81 |
5.30 |
6.30 |
1998:Q3 |
0.59 |
1.65 |
2.38 |
4.38 |
4.30 |
5.13 |
5.51 |
6.53 |
1998:Q4 |
0.42 |
1.41 |
2.46 |
3.56 |
3.47 |
4.78 |
5.17 |
6.23 |
1999:Q1 |
0.51 |
1.48 |
2.27 |
3.31 |
3.90 |
5.58 |
5.85 |
6.97 |
1999:Q2 |
0.68 |
1.69 |
2.74 |
3.37 |
4.08 |
5.36 |
5.70 |
6.74 |
1999:Q3 |
0.83 |
1.85 |
2.65 |
3.58 |
4.29 |
5.27 |
5.66 |
6.71 |
1999:Q4 |
0.92 |
1.93 |
2.79 |
3.80 |
4.37 |
4.65 |
5.23 |
6.15 |
2000:Q1 |
1.38 |
2.40 |
3.19 |
4.14 |
5.26 |
4.53 |
5.54 |
6.39 |
2000:Q2 |
0.96 |
2.00 |
2.73 |
4.44 |
5.63 |
4.28 |
5.17 |
6.06 |
2000:Q3 |
1.17 |
2.16 |
3.05 |
4.79 |
5.24 |
4.25 |
5.22 |
6.06 |
2000:Q4 |
0.60 |
1.61 |
2.44 |
4.87 |
4.55 |
3.55 |
4.65 |
5.50 |
2001:Q1 |
0.36 |
1.32 |
2.31 |
4.08 |
3.10 |
3.41 |
4.35 |
5.20 |
2001:Q2 |
-0.25 |
0.66 |
1.75 |
2.72 |
1.94 |
2.70 |
3.69 |
4.57 |
2001:Q3 |
-0.34 |
0.54 |
1.85 |
1.70 |
1.72 |
2.08 |
3.45 |
4.31 |
2001:Q4 |
-1.03 |
-0.17 |
0.91 |
0.20 |
0.51 |
1.62 |
2.80 |
3.70 |
2002:Q1 |
-1.09 |
-0.22 |
0.74 |
-0.47 |
0.66 |
1.61 |
2.80 |
3.68 |
2002:Q2 |
-0.93 |
-0.09 |
1.17 |
-0.07 |
0.54 |
1.80 |
2.87 |
3.78 |
2002:Q3 |
-1.29 |
-0.44 |
0.66 |
-0.03 |
0.29 |
1.58 |
2.55 |
3.46 |
2002:Q4 |
-2.28 |
-1.29 |
-0.86 |
-0.43 |
-0.01 |
1.53 |
2.32 |
3.35 |
2003:Q1 |
-2.47 |
-1.38 |
-1.00 |
-0.29 |
0.33 |
2.61 |
3.12 |
4.12 |
2003:Q2 |
-2.24 |
-1.19 |
-0.78 |
-0.25 |
0.44 |
2.61 |
3.11 |
4.15 |
2003:Q3 |
-1.42 |
-0.44 |
0.19 |
-0.34 |
0.03 |
2.61 |
3.20 |
4.18 |
2003:Q4 |
-0.72 |
0.22 |
0.99 |
-0.34 |
0.18 |
2.61 |
3.45 |
4.37 |
2004:Q1 |
-0.40 |
0.50 |
1.62 |
-0.43 |
0.48 |
2.59 |
3.51 |
4.38 |
2004:Q2 |
-0.68 |
0.16 |
1.41 |
-0.74 |
0.67 |
1.75 |
3.06 |
3.95 |
2004:Q3 |
-0.72 |
0.13 |
1.38 |
-0.66 |
0.90 |
1.94 |
3.06 |
3.97 |
2004:Q4 |
-0.93 |
-0.07 |
0.98 |
-0.13 |
1.29 |
2.03 |
2.97 |
3.88 |
2005:Q1 |
-0.67 |
0.20 |
1.27 |
0.26 |
1.88 |
1.92 |
3.12 |
4.03 |
2005:Q2 |
-0.53 |
0.31 |
1.41 |
0.72 |
1.44 |
2.03 |
3.26 |
4.14 |
2005:Q3 |
-0.64 |
0.23 |
1.23 |
1.37 |
1.78 |
1.98 |
3.21 |
4.11 |
2005:Q4 |
-0.44 |
0.44 |
1.52 |
1.92 |
2.16 |
2.13 |
3.37 |
4.25 |
2006:Q1 |
-0.65 |
0.22 |
1.28 |
2.33 |
2.61 |
1.95 |
3.18 |
4.07 |
2006:Q2 |
-0.26 |
0.64 |
1.54 |
2.87 |
2.57 |
2.80 |
3.76 |
4.64 |
2006:Q3 |
-0.38 |
0.53 |
1.37 |
3.00 |
2.61 |
2.63 |
3.63 |
4.55 |
2006:Q4 |
-0.60 |
0.29 |
1.25 |
2.82 |
2.80 |
2.14 |
3.28 |
4.17 |
2007:Q1 |
-0.57 |
0.30 |
1.28 |
2.99 |
2.96 |
2.19 |
3.30 |
4.19 |
2007:Q2 |
-0.79 |
0.09 |
1.10 |
2.93 |
3.22 |
1.91 |
3.06 |
3.92 |
2007:Q3 |
-0.38 |
0.54 |
1.42 |
3.03 |
3.08 |
2.77 |
3.67 |
4.60 |
2007:Q4 |
-0.35 |
0.60 |
1.29 |
2.50 |
2.52 |
3.31 |
4.03 |
5.01 |
2008:Q1 |
-1.20 |
-0.22 |
0.31 |
1.00 |
0.17 |
2.34 |
3.24 |
4.20 |
2008:Q2 |
-2.90 |
-1.75 |
-1.47 |
-0.07 |
-0.13 |
1.81 |
2.59 |
3.65 |
2008:Q3 |
-2.91 |
-1.87 |
-1.45 |
-0.29 |
-0.10 |
2.05 |
2.42 |
3.69 |
2008:Q4 |
-6.74 |
-5.59 |
-5.36 |
-0.97 |
-3.11 |
1.58 |
1.81 |
3.16 |
Short-Run and Medium-Run Measures
|
Current Estimate |
Previous Bluebook |
Short-Run Measures |
Single-equation model |
1.6 |
2.0 |
Small structural model |
-2.9 |
-1.8 |
Large model (FRB/US) |
-5.4 |
-1.7 |
Confidence intervals for three model-based estimates |
70 percent confidence interval |
-5.6 - 1.8 |
|
90 percent confidence interval |
-6.7 - 3.2 |
|
Greenbook-consistent measure |
-3.1 |
-0.3 |
Medium-Run Measures |
Single-equation model |
2.0 |
2.1 |
Small structural model |
1.0 |
1.7 |
Confidence intervals for two model-based estimates |
70 percent confidence interval |
0.5 - 2.6 |
|
90 percent confidence interval |
0.0 - 3.5 |
|
TIPS-based factor model |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Memo |
Actual real federal funds rate |
-1.0 |
-0.4 |
Note: Appendix A provides background information regarding the construction of these measures and confidence intervals.
The actual real federal funds rate shown is based on lagged core inflation as a proxy for inflation expectation. For information
regarding alternative measures, see Appendix A.
Chart 8
Optimal Policy Under Alternative Inflation Goals
1½ Percent Inflation Goal
Figure: Federal funds rate
Percent
Period |
Current Bluebook |
Previous Bluebook |
2008:Q4 |
1.23 |
2.24 |
2009:Q1 |
0.60 |
2.24 |
2009:Q2 |
0.20 |
2.22 |
2009:Q3 |
0.07 |
2.20 |
2009:Q4 |
0.06 |
2.19 |
2010:Q1 |
0.06 |
2.20 |
2010:Q2 |
0.06 |
2.24 |
2010:Q3 |
0.06 |
2.32 |
2010:Q4 |
0.06 |
2.42 |
2011:Q1 |
0.06 |
2.55 |
2011:Q2 |
0.06 |
2.71 |
2011:Q3 |
0.07 |
2.88 |
2011:Q4 |
0.07 |
3.06 |
2012:Q1 |
0.08 |
3.25 |
2012:Q2 |
0.20 |
3.45 |
2012:Q3 |
0.50 |
3.63 |
2012:Q4 |
0.96 |
3.81 |
2013:Q1 |
1.55 |
3.98 |
2013:Q2 |
2.21 |
4.12 |
2013:Q3 |
2.90 |
4.23 |
2013:Q4 |
3.57 |
4.32 |
Figure: Civilian unemployment rate
Percent
Period |
Current Bluebook |
Previous Bluebook |
2008:Q4 |
6.29 |
6.17 |
2009:Q1 |
6.60 |
6.16 |
2009:Q2 |
6.88 |
6.16 |
2009:Q3 |
7.07 |
6.16 |
2009:Q4 |
7.12 |
6.15 |
2010:Q1 |
7.16 |
6.04 |
2010:Q2 |
7.13 |
5.92 |
2010:Q3 |
7.06 |
5.86 |
2010:Q4 |
6.97 |
5.81 |
2011:Q1 |
6.78 |
5.66 |
2011:Q2 |
6.54 |
5.49 |
2011:Q3 |
6.29 |
5.34 |
2011:Q4 |
6.05 |
5.24 |
2012:Q1 |
5.80 |
5.14 |
2012:Q2 |
5.56 |
5.06 |
2012:Q3 |
5.32 |
4.99 |
2012:Q4 |
5.08 |
4.93 |
2013:Q1 |
4.85 |
4.88 |
2013:Q2 |
4.65 |
4.84 |
2013:Q3 |
4.48 |
4.82 |
2013:Q4 |
4.34 |
4.80 |
Figure: Core PCE inflation
Percent
Period |
Current Bluebook |
Previous Bluebook |
2008:Q4 |
2.478 |
2.448 |
2009:Q1 |
2.396 |
2.471 |
2009:Q2 |
2.258 |
2.488 |
2009:Q3 |
1.850 |
2.284 |
2009:Q4 |
1.605 |
2.135 |
2010:Q1 |
1.482 |
2.038 |
2010:Q2 |
1.442 |
1.980 |
2010:Q3 |
1.430 |
1.953 |
2010:Q4 |
1.420 |
1.948 |
2011:Q1 |
1.396 |
1.935 |
2011:Q2 |
1.359 |
1.914 |
2011:Q3 |
1.333 |
1.885 |
2011:Q4 |
1.299 |
1.847 |
2012:Q1 |
1.282 |
1.815 |
2012:Q2 |
1.281 |
1.788 |
2012:Q3 |
1.294 |
1.766 |
2012:Q4 |
1.320 |
1.749 |
2013:Q1 |
1.353 |
1.735 |
2013:Q2 |
1.390 |
1.725 |
2013:Q3 |
1.430 |
1.717 |
2013:Q4 |
1.470 |
1.711 |
2 Percent Inflation Goal
Figure: Federal funds rate
Percent
Period |
Current Bluebook |
Previous Bluebook |
2008:Q4 |
1.04 |
1.59 |
2009:Q1 |
0.37 |
1.38 |
2009:Q2 |
0.08 |
1.23 |
2009:Q3 |
0.05 |
1.13 |
2009:Q4 |
0.04 |
1.10 |
2010:Q1 |
0.04 |
1.14 |
2010:Q2 |
0.04 |
1.25 |
2010:Q3 |
0.04 |
1.41 |
2010:Q4 |
0.04 |
1.63 |
2011:Q1 |
0.04 |
1.88 |
2011:Q2 |
0.05 |
2.17 |
2011:Q3 |
0.05 |
2.49 |
2011:Q4 |
0.06 |
2.81 |
2012:Q1 |
0.06 |
3.13 |
2012:Q2 |
0.08 |
3.44 |
2012:Q3 |
0.17 |
3.74 |
2012:Q4 |
0.51 |
4.01 |
2013:Q1 |
1.04 |
4.26 |
2013:Q2 |
1.70 |
4.48 |
2013:Q3 |
2.43 |
4.66 |
2013:Q4 |
3.16 |
4.80 |
Figure: Civilian unemployment rate
Percent
Period |
Current Bluebook |
Previous Bluebook |
2008:Q4 |
6.29 |
6.15 |
2009:Q1 |
6.59 |
6.11 |
2009:Q2 |
6.86 |
6.07 |
2009:Q3 |
7.03 |
6.02 |
2009:Q4 |
7.07 |
5.96 |
2010:Q1 |
7.08 |
5.81 |
2010:Q2 |
7.04 |
5.65 |
2010:Q3 |
6.96 |
5.57 |
2010:Q4 |
6.84 |
5.49 |
2011:Q1 |
6.64 |
5.32 |
2011:Q2 |
6.38 |
5.15 |
2011:Q3 |
6.11 |
4.99 |
2011:Q4 |
5.86 |
4.89 |
2012:Q1 |
5.60 |
4.80 |
2012:Q2 |
5.34 |
4.74 |
2012:Q3 |
5.09 |
4.69 |
2012:Q4 |
4.83 |
4.65 |
2013:Q1 |
4.59 |
4.63 |
2013:Q2 |
4.38 |
4.62 |
2013:Q3 |
4.20 |
4.62 |
2013:Q4 |
4.05 |
4.62 |
Figure: Core PCE inflation
Percent
Period |
Current Bluebook |
Previous Bluebook |
2008:Q4 |
2.502 |
2.518 |
2009:Q1 |
2.433 |
2.564 |
2009:Q2 |
2.307 |
2.605 |
2009:Q3 |
1.907 |
2.388 |
2009:Q4 |
1.651 |
2.249 |
2010:Q1 |
1.528 |
2.167 |
2010:Q2 |
1.488 |
2.130 |
2010:Q3 |
1.480 |
2.119 |
2010:Q4 |
1.472 |
2.136 |
2011:Q1 |
1.453 |
2.143 |
2011:Q2 |
1.422 |
2.143 |
2011:Q3 |
1.404 |
2.134 |
2011:Q4 |
1.378 |
2.115 |
2012:Q1 |
1.370 |
2.100 |
2012:Q2 |
1.380 |
2.088 |
2012:Q3 |
1.405 |
2.080 |
2012:Q4 |
1.445 |
2.076 |
2013:Q1 |
1.494 |
2.074 |
2013:Q2 |
1.550 |
2.073 |
2013:Q3 |
1.609 |
2.074 |
2013:Q4 |
1.670 |
2.075 |
Chart 9
The Policy Outlook in an Uncertain Environment
Figure: FRB/US Model Simulations of Estimated Outcome-Based Rule
A line chart shows three series, "Current Bluebook", "Previous Bluebook", and "Greenbook assumption", from 2008:Q3 through 2013. Unit is percent.
The dark shading represents the 70 percent confidence interval. It begins between the values of about 1.3 and 1.7 in 2008:Q4, it decreases to between about 0 and 1.1 by 2009:Q2 and generally increases to end between about 3.1 and 6.4 in 2013:Q4.
The light shading represents the 90 percent confidence intervals. The upper interval begins between the values of about 1 and 2 in 2008:Q4, it then generally increases and ends between about 6.4 and 7.3 in 2013:Q4. The lower interval begins between about 0 and 1.2 in 2008:Q4, it generally increases and ends between about 2 and 3 in 2013:Q4.
The "Current Bluebook" series begins at about 1.5 percent in 2008:Q4 decreases to about 0 in 2009:Q3 and stays about the same through 2010:Q4. It then generally increases to end at about 4.75 in 2013:Q4.
The "Previous Bluebook" series begins at about 2.2 in 2008:Q4, and generally increases to end at about 3.9 in 2013:Q4.
The "Greenbook assumption" series begins at about 1.2 in 2008:Q4, generally decreases to about 0.5 in 2009 and stays about the same through 2010:Q2. The series then generally increases and ends at about 3.4 in 2013:Q4.
Note: In both panels, the dark and light shading represent the 70 and 90 percent confidence intervals respectively. In the right hand panel, the thin dotted lines represent the confidence intervals shown in the previous Bluebook.
Figure: Information from Financial Markets
A line chart shows two series, "Current Bluebook", and "Previous Bluebook", from 2008: Q3 through 2013. Unit is percent.
The dark shading represents the 70 percent confidence interval. It begins between the values of about 1 and 1.3 in 2008:Q4, it decreases to between about 0.5 and 1.1 by 2009:Q1 and generally increases to end between about 1.5 and 5.2 in 2013:Q4.
The light shading represents the 90 percent confidence intervals. The upper interval begins between the values of about 1.2 and 1.3 in 2008:Q4, it then generally increases and ends between about 5.2 and 6.2 in 2013:Q4. The lower interval begins between about 1 and 1.1 in 2008:Q4, it generally decreases between about 0.4 and 0.6 in 2009, and generally increases between about 1.3 and 1.9 by 2011:Q4,and decreases to end between about 1 and 1.5 in 2013:Q4.
The "Current Bluebook" series begins at about 1.2 in 2008:Q4, decreases to about 0.75 in 2009:Q1, generally increases to about 3.75 in 2011, and generally decreases to end at about 3.5 in 2013:Q4.
The "Previous Bluebook" series begins at about 2 in 2008:Q4, and generally increases to end at about 3.75 in 2013:Q4.
Note: In both panels, the dark and light shading represent the 70 and 90 percent confidence intervals respectively. In the right hand panel, the thin dotted lines represent the confidence intervals shown in the previous Bluebook.
Near-Term Prescriptions of Simple Policy Rules
|
1½ Percent Inflation Objective |
2 Percent Inflation Objective |
2008Q4 |
2009Q1 |
2008Q4 |
2009Q1 |
Taylor (1993) rule |
3.8 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
Previous Bluebook |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
Taylor (1999) rule |
2.6 |
1.6 |
2.4 |
1.3 |
Previous Bluebook |
3.7 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
First-difference rule |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
Previous Bluebook |
2.0 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
Memo
|
2008Q4 |
2009Q1 |
Estimated outcome-based rule |
1.7 |
1.3 |
Estimated forecast-based rule |
1.3 |
0.5 |
Greenbook assumption |
1.2 |
0.6 |
Fed funds futures |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Median expectation of primary dealers |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Note: Appendix B provides background information regarding the specification of each rule and the methodology used in constructing confidence intervals and near-term prescriptions.
† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text
Last update: March 7, 2014