Accessible Material
October 2008 Greenbook Supplement Tables and Charts†
Supplemental Notes
Private Housing Activity
Sector | 2007 | 2008 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | July | Aug. | Sept. | ||
All units | |||||||
Starts | 1.36 | 1.05 | 1.03 | .88 | .95 | .87 | .82 |
Permits | 1.40 | .99 | 1.03 | .86 | .94 | .86 | .79 |
Single-family units | |||||||
Starts | 1.05 | .73 | .68 | .60 | .64 | .62 | .54 |
Permits | .98 | .65 | .63 | .56 | .58 | .55 | .53 |
Adjusted permits1 | .99 | .67 | .65 | .57 | .60 | .57 | .55 |
Permit backlog2 | .108 | .096 | .089 | .085 | .091 | .083 | .085 |
New homes | |||||||
Sales | .78 | .56 | .52 | n.a. | .52 | .46 | n.a. |
Months' supply3 | 8.40 | 10.24 | 10.53 | n.a. | 9.85 | 10.64 | n.a. |
Existing homes | |||||||
Sales | 4.94 | 4.39 | 4.34 | 4.46 | 4.41 | 4.35 | 4.62 |
Months' supply3 | 8.67 | 10.24 | 10.29 | 9.50 | 9.74 | 9.57 | 9.17 |
Multifamily units | |||||||
Starts | .309 | .325 | .350 | .277 | .305 | .254 | .273 |
Permits | .419 | .341 | .400 | .304 | .353 | .304 | .254 |
Permit backlog2 | .075 | .067 | .068 | .061 | .066 | .064 | .061 |
Mobile homes | |||||||
Shipments | .096 | .092 | .088 | n.a. | .084 | .082 | n.a. |
Condos and co-ops | |||||||
Existing home sales | .713 | .560 | .573 | .577 | .610 | .560 | .560 |
1. Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas. Return to table
2. Number outstanding at end of period. Excludes permits that have expired or have been canceled, abandoned, or revoked. Not at an annual rate. Return to table
3. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of seasonally adjusted inventories to seasonally adjusted sales. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of monthly figures. Return to table
n.a. Not available.
Source: Census Bureau.
Figure: Private Housing Starts and Permits
A line chart shows three series, "Single-family starts (right scale)", "Single-family adjusted permits (right scale)", and "Multifamily starts (left scale)", from 1999:Q1 through September 2008. The right scale ranges from 0.0 to 2.0 and the left scale ranges from 0.2 to 1.0. Data is seasonally adjusted annual rate; unit is millions of units. The "Single-family starts" series begins at about 1.32 in 1999:Q1, it generally decreases to about 1.1 by 2000:Q3, and generally increases to about 1.82 by 2006:Q1. The series generally decreases and ends at about 0.55 in September 2008. The "Single-family adjusted permits" series begins at about 1.3 in 1999:Q1, generally decreases to about 1.2 by mid-2000, and generally increases to about 1.84 by 2005:Q3. The series generally decreases and ends at about 0.55 in September 2008. The "Multifamily starts" series begins at about 0.4 in 1999:Q1, it fluctuates between about 0.2 and 0.48 throughout the period and ends at about 0.26 in September 2008.
Note: Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas.
Source: Census Bureau.
Indicators of Single-Family Housing
Figure: New Single-Family Home Sales
A line chart shows two series, "All homebuilders (left scale)", and "Medium and large homebuilders (right scale)" from 1999 through September 2008. The left scale ranges from 0.3 to 1.7 and the right scale ranges from 0.00 to 0.55. Unit is millions of units (annual rate). The "All homebuilders" series begins at about 0.87 million units in 1999, generally increases to about 1.4 in 2005:Q3, and generally decreases to end at about 0.45 in August 2008. The "Medium and large homebuilders" series begins at about 0.19 million units in 1999, generally increases to about 0.425 in 2005:Q4, and generally decreases to end at about 0.13 in September 2008.
Source: For medium and large homebuilders, National Association of Home Builders; for all homebuilders, Census Bureau.
Figure: Existing Single-Family Home Sales
A line chart shows two series, "Existing home sales (left scale)", and "Pending home sales (right scale)" from 1999 through August 2008. The left scale ranges from 4.0 to 6.5; unit is millions of units (annual rate). The right scale ranges from 70 to 140; unit is an index (2001=100). The "Existing home sales" series begins at about 4.7 million units in January 1999, generally increases to about 6.3 in 2005:Q3, and then generally decreases to end at about 4.6 in September 2008. The "Pending home sales" series begins at about 102 in 2001:Q1, increases to about 108 shortly after, generally decreases to about 88 in 2001:Q3 and generally increases to about 127 in 2005:Q2 and Q3. It then generally decreases to about 84 in 2008:Q1 and increases to end at about 93 in August 2008.
Source. National Association of Realtors.
Figure: Inventories of New Homes and Months' Supply
A line chart shows two series, "Inventories of new homes (left scale)", and "Months' supply (right scale)" from 1999 through August 2008. The left scale ranges from 200 to 600; unit is thousands of units. The right scale ranges from 1 to 11; unit is months. The "Inventories of new homes" series begins at about 275 thousand units in 1999, generally increases to about 570 by mid-2006 and then generally decreases to end at about 410 in August 2008. The "Month's supply" series begins at about 3.5 in 1999, fluctuates between about 3.5 and 4.5 through 2005:Q3, it generally increases to about 10.2 in 2008:Q2, and decreases to end at about 9.9 in August 2008.
Note. Months' supply is calculated using the 3-month moving average of sales.
Source. Census Bureau.
Figure: Mortgage Rates
A line chart shows two series, "30-year conforming FRM", and "1-year conforming ARM" from 1999 through October 2008. Unit is percent. The "30-year conforming FRM" series begins at about 6.7 percent in 1999, generally increases to about 8.5 in 2000:Q2, it generally decreases to about 5.2 in 2003:Q2, then fluctuates between about 5.3 and 6.7 through 2007, and ends at about 6.1 in October 2008. The "1-year conforming ARM" series begins at about 5.5 percent in 1999, generally increases to about 7.3 in 2000:Q2, and generally decreases to about 3.4 in 2004:Q1. It then generally increases to about 5.8 in 2006:Q3 and generally decreases to end at about 5.1 in October 2008.
Note. The September reading is a monthly average of data available through Oct. 22, 2008.
Source. Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.
Figure: Prices of Existing Homes
A line chart shows two series, "Monthly OFHEO purchase-only index", and "S&P/ Case-Shiller 20-city composite price index" from 1999 through July 2008. Unit is percent change from year earlier. The "S&P/ Case-Shiller national price index" series begins at about 7.25 in 1999, generally increases to about 16 by 2004, and then generally decreases to end at about -16 in July 2008. The "Monthly OFHEO purchase-only index" series begins at about 5.5 in 1999, generally increases to about 20 by 2005 and then generally decreases to end at about -6 in August 2008.
Source: For purchase-only index, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight; for S&P/Case-Shiller, Standard & Poor's.
Figure: Price of New Homes
A line chart shows a single series, "Constant-quality index", from 1999 through 2008:Q2. Unit is percent change from year earlier. The "Constant quality index" series begins at about 3.1 percent in 1999, increases to about 6.5 in 2008:Q2, and generally increases to about 9.1 in 2005:Q4. It then generally decreases to about -8 in 2008:Q1, and increases to end at about -4 in 2008:Q2.
Source. Census Bureau.
Commercial Bank Credit
Type of credit | 2006 | 2007 | H1 2008 |
Q3 2008 |
Sept. 2008 |
Oct. 2008e |
Level1 Oct. 2008e |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 10.3 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 14.0 | 12.4 | 9,582 |
Loans2 | |||||||
Total | 12.0 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 7,235 |
To businesses | |||||||
Commercial and industrial | 14.3 | 19.1 | 13.7 | 5.9 | 20.2 | 32.1 | 1,578 |
Commercial real estate | 13.6 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 1.3 | -.6 | 2.7 | 1,717 |
To households | |||||||
Residential real estate | 9.9 | 8.4 | 2.5 | -4.9 | -5.8 | -3.6 | 2,078 |
Revolving home equity | 3.1 | 7.1 | 13.7 | 12.0 | 16.7 | 20.9 | 577 |
Other | 12.3 | 8.8 | -1.2 | -10.8 | -14.0 | -12.8 | 1,501 |
Consumer | 2.9 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 870 |
Originated3 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 12.1 | 1,297 |
Other4 | 21.1 | 17.6 | -2.5 | 8.8 | 64.1 | 8.0 | 993 |
Securities | |||||||
Total | 5.4 | 8.4 | -.9 | 7.7 | 21.5 | 23.7 | 2,348 |
Treasury and agency | 2.0 | -5.8 | -1.0 | 24.6 | 30.5 | 21.3 | 1,275 |
Other5 | 10.7 | 29.1 | -.8 | -10.2 | 10.8 | 26.6 | 1,073 |
Note. Yearly annual rates are Q4 to Q4; quarterly and monthly annual rates use corresponding average levels. Data have been adjusted to remove the effects of mark-to-market accounting rules (FIN 39 and FAS 115), the initial consolidation of certain variable interest entities (FIN 46), the initial adoption of fair value accounting (FAS 159), and the effects of sizable thrift-to-bank and bank-to-thrift structure activity in October 2006, March 2007, October 2007, and September 2008. Data also account for breaks caused by reclassifications.
1. Billions of dollars. Pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels. Return to table
2. Excludes interbank loans. Return to table
3. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks. Return to table
4. Includes security loans and loans to farmers, state and local governments, and all others not elsewhere classified. Also includes lease financing receivables. Return to table
5. Includes private mortgage-backed securities; securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments; and any trading account assets that are not Treasury or agency securities. Return to table
e Estimated. Return to table
Source: Federal Reserve.
Figure: C&I Loan Rate Spreads
A line chart shows two series, "Weighted average", and "Weighted average adjusted"*, from 1997 through 2008:Q3. Data is quarterly; unit is basis points. The "Weighted average" series begins at about 153 in 1997, generally increases to about 222 by 2004, and generally decreases to end at about 183 in 2008:Q3. The "Weighted average adjusted"* series begins at about 153 in 1997, generally increases to about 187 by 2003, and generally decreases to end at about 139 in 2008:Q3.
*Adjusted for changes in nonprice loan characteristics. Return to text
Note. Spreads over market interest rate on an instrument of comparable maturity on loans less than $25 million (2006$).
Source. Survey of Terms of Business Lending.
Figure: Return on Assets at Commercial Banks
A line chart shows two series, "25 largest banks", and "All other banks", from 1991 through 2008:Q2. Data is Quarterly, s.a.a.r. Unit is percent. The "25 largest banks" series begins at about 0.55 percent in 1991, decreases to about 0.0 in early 1992, generally increases to about 1.5 by early 2007, and generally decreases to end at about 0.4 in 2008:Q2. The "All other banks" series begins at about 0.5 percent in 1991, generally increases to about 1.49 by early 2004, and generally decreases to end at about 0.3 in 2008:Q2.
Source. Call Report.
Selected Financial Market Quotations
Instrument | 2007 | 2008 | Change to Oct. 23 from selected dates (percentage points) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug. 6 | Aug. 4 | Sept. 15 | Oct. 23 | 2007 Aug. 6 | 2008 Aug. 4 | 2008 Sept. 15 | |
Short-term | |||||||
FOMC intended federal funds rate | 5.25 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | -3.75 | -.50 | -.50 |
Treasury bills1 | |||||||
3-month | 4.74 | 1.72 | 1.03 | .96 | -3.78 | -.76 | -.07 |
6-month | 4.72 | 1.93 | 1.52 | 1.48 | -3.24 | -.45 | -.04 |
Commercial paper (A1/P1 rates)2 | |||||||
1-month | 5.26 | 2.41 | 2.47 | 2.38 | -2.88 | -.03 | -.09 |
3-month | 5.29 | 2.72 | 2.73 | 3.48 | -1.81 | .76 | .75 |
Large negotiable CDs1 | |||||||
3-month | 5.34 | 2.80 | 3.45 | 3.88 | -1.46 | 1.08 | .43 |
6-month | 5.27 | 3.10 | 3.85 | 3.88 | -1.39 | .78 | .03 |
Eurodollar deposits3 | |||||||
1-month | 5.33 | 2.60 | 2.70 | 3.75 | -1.58 | 1.15 | 1.05 |
3-month | 5.35 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 4.50 | -.85 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
Bank prime rate | 8.25 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.50 | -3.75 | -.50 | -.50 |
Intermediate- and long-term | |||||||
U.S. Treasury4 | |||||||
2-year | 4.49 | 2.49 | 1.78 | 1.42 | -3.07 | -1.07 | -.36 |
5-year | 4.52 | 3.25 | 2.60 | 2.60 | -1.92 | -.65 | .00 |
10-year | 4.82 | 4.15 | 3.68 | 4.18 | -.64 | .03 | .50 |
U.S. Treasury indexed notes5 | |||||||
5-year | 2.43 | 1.15 | 1.25 | 2.73 | .30 | 1.58 | 1.48 |
10-year | 2.48 | 1.71 | 1.70 | 2.80 | .32 | 1.09 | 1.10 |
Municipal general obligations (Bond Buyer)6 | 4.51 | 4.74 | 4.54 | 5.32 | .81 | .58 | .78 |
Private instruments | |||||||
10-year swap | 5.44 | 4.66 | 4.24 | 4.06 | -1.38 | -.60 | -.18 |
10-year FNMA7 | 5.34 | 4.82 | 4.19 | 4.66 | -.68 | -.16 | .47 |
10-year AA8 | 6.12 | 6.62 | 6.63 | 7.93 | 1.81 | 1.31 | 1.30 |
10-year BBB8 | 6.57 | 7.17 | 7.11 | 9.40 | 2.83 | 2.23 | 2.29 |
10-year high yield8 | 9.21 | 10.57 | 10.86 | 15.32 | 6.11 | 4.75 | 4.46 |
Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate) | |||||||
30-year fixed | 6.59 | 6.52 | 5.78 | 6.04 | -.55 | -.48 | .26 |
1-year adjustable | 5.65 | 5.22 | 5.03 | 5.23 | -.42 | .01 | .20 |
Stock exchange index | Record high | 2008 | Change to Oct. 23 from selected dates (percent) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Level | Date | Aug. 4 | Sept. 15 | Oct. 23 | Record high | 2008 Aug. 4 | 2008 Sept. 15 | |
Dow Jones Industrial | 14,165 | 10-9-07 | 11,284 | 10,918 | 8,691 | -38.64 | -22.98 | -20.39 |
S&P 500 Composite | 1,565 | 10-9-07 | 1,249 | 1,193 | 908 | -41.98 | -27.29 | -23.86 |
Nasdaq | 5,049 | 3-10-00 | 2,286 | 2,180 | 1,604 | -68.23 | -29.82 | -26.42 |
Russell 2000 | 856 | 7-13-07 | 704 | 690 | 490 | -42.75 | -30.42 | -28.97 |
Wilshire 5000 | 15,807 | 10-9-07 | 12,738 | 12,184 | 9,111 | -42.36 | -28.47 | -25.22 |
1. Secondary market. Return to table
2. Financial commercial paper. Return to table
3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. eastern time. Return to table
4. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using off-the-run securities. Return to table
5. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using all outstanding securities and adjusted for the carry effect. Return to table
6. Most recent Thursday quote. Return to table
7. Constant-maturity yields estimated from Fannie Mae domestic noncallable coupon securities. Return to table
8. Derived from smoothed corporate yield curves estimated using Merrill Lynch bond data. Return to table
NOTES:
August 6, 2007, is the day before the August 2007 FOMC meeting.
August 4, 2008, is the day before the August 2008 FOMC monetary policy announcement.
September 15, 2008, is the day before the most recent FOMC monetary policy announcement.
† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text