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Table 2: Bluebook Alternatives
December 2008 Bluebook Tables and Charts
Money and Debt Forecasts
Table 2: Bluebook Alternatives
Strictly Confidential Class II FOMC
M2 Path | Ease 75 bp | Ease 50 bp | Ease 25 bp | No change | Greenbook Forecast* | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monthly Growth Rates | ||||||||
Jan-08 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | ||
Feb-08 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 15.8 | ||
Mar-08 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | ||
Apr-08 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | ||
May-08 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | ||
Jun-08 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | ||
Jul-08 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | ||
Aug-08 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | ||
Sep-08 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | ||
Oct-08 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | ||
Nov-08 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | ||
Dec-08 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.9 | ||
Jan-09 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 6.0 | ||
Feb-09 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 4.0 | ||
Mar-09 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 3.0 | ||
Apr-09 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 2.0 | ||
May-09 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 2.0 | ||
Jun-09 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.0 | ||
Quarterly Growth Rates | ||||||||
2008 Q1 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | ||
2008 Q2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | ||
2008 Q3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | ||
2008 Q4 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | ||
2009 Q1 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 6.4 | ||
2009 Q2 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | ||
Annual Growth Rates | ||||||||
2007 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | ||
2008 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | ||
2009 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 3.0 | ||
Growth | From | To | ||||||
2007 Q4 | Nov-08 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | |
2007 Q4 | Dec-08 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.9 | |
2008 Q4 | Jun-09 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 4.1 | |
Nov-08 | Jun-09 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 4.2 | |
Dec-08 | Jun-09 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 3.2 | |
2008 Q4 | Jun-09 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 4.1 | |
2007 Q4 | 2008 Q4 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | |
2008 Q4 | 2009 Q4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
* This forecast is consistent with nominal GDP and interest rates in the Greenbook forecast. Return to table
Last update: March 7, 2014