Accessible Material
December 2008 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts†
Domestic Developments
Key Background Factors Underlying the Baseline Staff Projection
Note: In each panel, shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2009:Q1 except as noted.
Period | Current Greenbook | October Greenbook |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 2.45 | 2.45 |
2005:Q2 | 2.94 | 2.94 |
2005:Q3 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
2005:Q4 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
2006:Q1 | 4.42 | 4.42 |
2006:Q2 | 4.90 | 4.90 |
2006:Q3 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
2006:Q4 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
2007:Q1 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
2007:Q2 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
2007:Q3 | 5.20 | 5.20 |
2007:Q4 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
2008:Q1 | 3.17 | 3.17 |
2008:Q2 | 2.10 | 2.10 |
2008:Q3 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
2008:Q4 | 1.10 | 1.15 |
2009:Q1 | 0.35 | 0.60 |
2009:Q2 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
2009:Q3 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
2009:Q4 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
2010:Q1 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
2010:Q2 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
2010:Q3 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
2010:Q4 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
As shown in the figure, the "Market forecast" curve is about 0.25 percent in 2009:Q1, and then increases steadily to about 1.7 percent by 2010:Q4.
Period | Baa corporate rate: Current Greenbook |
Baa corporate rate: October Greenbook |
10-year Treasury rate: Current Greenbook |
10-year Treasury rate: October Greenbook |
---|---|---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 5.97 | 5.97 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
2005:Q2 | 5.97 | 5.97 | 4.16 | 4.16 |
2005:Q3 | 5.98 | 5.98 | 4.22 | 4.22 |
2005:Q4 | 6.34 | 6.34 | 4.49 | 4.49 |
2006:Q1 | 6.31 | 6.31 | 4.58 | 4.58 |
2006:Q2 | 6.74 | 6.74 | 5.07 | 5.07 |
2006:Q3 | 6.59 | 6.59 | 4.89 | 4.89 |
2006:Q4 | 6.28 | 6.28 | 4.63 | 4.63 |
2007:Q1 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 4.68 | 4.68 |
2007:Q2 | 6.49 | 6.49 | 4.85 | 4.85 |
2007:Q3 | 6.63 | 6.63 | 4.74 | 4.74 |
2007:Q4 | 6.51 | 6.51 | 4.27 | 4.27 |
2008:Q1 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 3.67 | 3.67 |
2008:Q2 | 6.99 | 6.99 | 3.88 | 3.88 |
2008:Q3 | 7.21 | 7.21 | 3.86 | 3.86 |
2008:Q4 | 8.95 | 9.05 | 3.35 | 3.75 |
2009:Q1 | 8.60 | 8.65 | 2.70 | 3.75 |
2009:Q2 | 8.25 | 8.25 | 2.75 | 3.75 |
2009:Q3 | 7.90 | 7.95 | 2.80 | 3.75 |
2009:Q4 | 7.60 | 7.65 | 2.85 | 3.75 |
2010:Q1 | 7.30 | 7.40 | 2.90 | 3.75 |
2010:Q2 | 7.05 | 7.20 | 2.95 | 3.75 |
2010:Q3 | 6.75 | 7.00 | 2.95 | 3.75 |
2010:Q4 | 6.50 | 6.80 | 3.00 | 3.75 |
As shown in the figure, the "Conforming mortgage rate" series for both the current and October Greenbooks begin in 2005 at about 5.8%. They fluctuate but stay about the same until late 2008. Between late 2008 and 2010, the October Greenbook series slightly declines from about 6.2% to about 5.8%, while the Current Greenbook series drops from about 6.2% to about 5%.
Period | Wilshire 5000: Current Greenbook |
Wilshire 5000: October Greenbook |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
2005:Q2 | 102.05 | 102.05 |
2005:Q3 | 105.59 | 105.59 |
2005:Q4 | 107.56 | 107.56 |
2006:Q1 | 113.04 | 113.04 |
2006:Q2 | 110.41 | 110.41 |
2006:Q3 | 114.67 | 114.67 |
2006:Q4 | 122.51 | 122.51 |
2007:Q1 | 123.81 | 123.81 |
2007:Q2 | 130.70 | 130.70 |
2007:Q3 | 132.00 | 132.00 |
2007:Q4 | 127.33 | 127.33 |
2008:Q1 | 114.55 | 114.55 |
2008:Q2 | 112.33 | 112.33 |
2008:Q3 | 102.04 | 102.03 |
2008:Q4 | 76.56 | 84.12 |
2009:Q1 | 78.41 | 86.14 |
2009:Q2 | 80.30 | 88.20 |
2009:Q3 | 82.96 | 91.12 |
2009:Q4 | 85.71 | 94.17 |
2010:Q1 | 88.54 | 97.31 |
2010:Q2 | 91.51 | 100.53 |
2010:Q3 | 93.70 | 102.94 |
2010:Q4 | 95.98 | 105.43 |
Period | LoanPerformance index: Current Greenbook |
---|---|
2005:Q1 | 100.00 |
2005:Q2 | 103.70 |
2005:Q3 | 107.13 |
2005:Q4 | 109.05 |
2006:Q1 | 109.59 |
2006:Q2 | 109.01 |
2006:Q3 | 108.94 |
2006:Q4 | 109.40 |
2007:Q1 | 108.81 |
2007:Q2 | 107.30 |
2007:Q3 | 104.43 |
2007:Q4 | 100.42 |
2008:Q1 | 96.95 |
2008:Q2 | 95.86 |
2008:Q3 | 92.69 |
2008:Q4 | 88.63 |
2009:Q1 | 84.98 |
2009:Q2 | 81.74 |
2009:Q3 | 79.15 |
2009:Q4 | 77.43 |
2010:Q1 | 76.22 |
2010:Q2 | 75.37 |
2010:Q3 | 74.97 |
2010:Q4 | 74.85 |
Note: The projection period begins in 2008:Q4.
Note: The LoanPerformance Index series for the October Greenbook begins at the end of 2008 at about 96. It declines to about 72 by the end of 2010.
Period | West Texas intermediate: Current Greenbook |
West Texas intermediate: October Greenbook |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 49.68 | 49.68 |
2005:Q2 | 53.09 | 53.09 |
2005:Q3 | 63.08 | 63.08 |
2005:Q4 | 60.03 | 60.03 |
2006:Q1 | 63.36 | 63.34 |
2006:Q2 | 70.54 | 70.53 |
2006:Q3 | 70.44 | 70.44 |
2006:Q4 | 60.07 | 60.04 |
2007:Q1 | 57.99 | 58.02 |
2007:Q2 | 64.97 | 64.97 |
2007:Q3 | 75.48 | 75.48 |
2007:Q4 | 90.75 | 90.75 |
2008:Q1 | 97.95 | 97.91 |
2008:Q2 | 123.96 | 123.88 |
2008:Q3 | 118.01 | 118.01 |
2008:Q4 | 59.36 | 73.86 |
2009:Q1 | 46.23 | 73.13 |
2009:Q2 | 51.57 | 74.66 |
2009:Q3 | 54.62 | 76.22 |
2009:Q4 | 57.15 | 77.83 |
2010:Q1 | 59.57 | 79.42 |
2010:Q2 | 61.79 | 80.84 |
2010:Q3 | 63.76 | 82.08 |
2010:Q4 | 65.63 | 83.15 |
Period | Exchange Rate: Current Greenbook |
Exchange Rate: October Greenbook |
---|---|---|
2005:Q1 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
2005:Q2 | 101.27 | 101.27 |
2005:Q3 | 102.36 | 102.35 |
2005:Q4 | 103.51 | 103.50 |
2006:Q1 | 101.94 | 101.95 |
2006:Q2 | 100.69 | 100.69 |
2006:Q3 | 100.62 | 100.61 |
2006:Q4 | 99.14 | 99.14 |
2007:Q1 | 99.09 | 99.09 |
2007:Q2 | 97.11 | 97.11 |
2007:Q3 | 95.12 | 95.11 |
2007:Q4 | 91.97 | 91.97 |
2008:Q1 | 90.05 | 90.05 |
2008:Q2 | 88.50 | 88.50 |
2008:Q3 | 90.84 | 90.85 |
2008:Q4 | 99.04 | 97.93 |
2009:Q1 | 99.31 | 97.39 |
2009:Q2 | 99.40 | 96.68 |
2009:Q3 | 99.20 | 95.96 |
2009:Q4 | 98.79 | 95.24 |
2010:Q1 | 98.15 | 94.39 |
2010:Q2 | 97.45 | 93.49 |
2010:Q3 | 96.70 | 92.55 |
2010:Q4 | 95.90 | 91.59 |
Summary of the Near-Term Outlook
Measure | 2008:Q3 | 2008:Q4 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. GB |
Dec. GB |
Oct. GB |
Dec. GB |
|
Real GDP | -1.0 | -.4 | -1.3 | -4.7 |
Private domestic final purchases | -3.5 | -3.9 | -4.4 | -6.6 |
Personal consumption expenditures | -3.3 | -3.7 | -2.4 | -4.3 |
Residential investment | -19.7 | -15.7 | -24.4 | -27.0 |
Business fixed investment | .8 | -.6 | -9.9 | -14.0 |
Government outlays for consumption and investment | 4.8 | 5.8 | -1.0 | 1.2 |
Contribution to growth (percentage points) | ||||
Inventory investment | -.2 | .7 | 2.2 | .3 |
Net exports | 1.2 | 1.1 | .4 | .4 |
Projections of Real GDP
Measure | 2008:H2 | 2009:H1 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP | -2.6 | -3.1 | -.9 | 2.4 |
Previous | -1.2 | -.9 | -.1 | 2.3 |
Final sales | -3.1 | -2.4 | -1.4 | 2.4 |
Previous | -2.1 | -.9 | -.5 | 2.3 |
PCE | -4.0 | -.2 | .7 | 2.7 |
Previous | -2.9 | .4 | 1.0 | 2.4 |
Residential investment | -21.6 | -22.2 | -10.4 | 8.9 |
Previous | -22.1 | -21.0 | -15.8 | 13.4 |
BFI | -7.5 | -19.7 | -16.9 | 4.8 |
Previous | -4.7 | -12.2 | -10.9 | 4.1 |
Government purchases | 3.4 | .8 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Previous | 1.9 | 1.2 | .9 | .5 |
Exports | -.4 | -2.7 | -1.3 | 2.6 |
Previous | 5.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.9 |
Imports | -4.2 | -5.6 | -1.0 | 4.9 |
Previous | -.7 | -.7 | .9 | 4.3 |
Contribution to growth (percentage points) | ||||
Inventory change | .5 | -.7 | .4 | .0 |
Previous | 1.0 | .0 | .4 | -.0 |
Net exports | .7 | .5 | -.0 | -.4 |
Previous | .8 | .5 | .2 | -.2 |
… Not applicable.
Decomposition of Structural Labor Productivity
Measure | 1974-95 | 1996-2000 | 2001-06 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Structural labor productivity | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Previous | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Contributions1 | |||||||
Capital deepening | .7 | 1.4 | .7 | .6 | .4 | -.0 | .1 |
Previous | .7 | 1.4 | .7 | .6 | .5 | .2 | .3 |
Multifactor productivity | .5 | .7 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
Previous | .5 | .7 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Labor composition | .3 | .3 | .3 | .2 | .2 | .2 | .1 |
Memo | |||||||
Potential GDP | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Previous | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. For multiyear periods, the percent change is the annual average from Q4 of the year preceding the first year shown to Q4 of the last year shown.
1. Percentage points. Return to table
… Not applicable.
The Outlook for the Labor Market
Measure | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Output per hour, nonfarm business | 2.7 | 2.0 | .8 | 2.4 |
Previous | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
Nonfarm private payroll employment | .9 | -1.8 | -1.9 | .4 |
Previous | .9 | -1.2 | -1.4 | .7 |
Household survey employment | .4 | -1.3 | -.9 | .6 |
Previous | .4 | -.8 | -.5 | .8 |
Labor force participation rate1 | 66.0 | 65.9 | 65.5 | 65.3 |
Previous | 66.0 | 66.0 | 65.6 | 65.4 |
Civilian unemployment rate1 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 |
Previous | 4.8 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
Memo | ||||
GDP gap2 | -.3 | -3.1 | -6.0 | -5.8 |
Previous | -.2 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -4.7 |
1. Percent, average for the fourth quarter. Return to table
2. Actual less potential GDP in the fourth quarter of the year indicated as a percent of potential GDP. A negative number thus indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Return to table
… Not applicable.
Inflation Projections
Measure | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|
PCE chain-weighted price index | 3.5 | 1.9 | .7 | 1.0 |
Previous | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Food and beverages | 4.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
Previous | 4.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
Energy | 19.1 | -9.8 | -8.1 | 4.8 |
Previous | 19.1 | -1.0 | -2.3 | 3.3 |
Excluding food and energy | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | .8 |
Previous | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Consumer price index | 4.0 | 1.7 | .7 | 1.3 |
Previous | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Excluding food and energy | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Previous | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
GDP chain-weighted price index | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | .8 |
Previous | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
ECI for compensation of private industry workers1 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Previous | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
Compensation per hour, nonfarm business sector | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
Previous | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
Prices of core goods imports2 | 3.4 | 3.9 | -2.7 | 1.3 |
Previous | 3.4 | 5.5 | -.5 | 1.5 |
1. December to December. Return to table
2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table
The Long-Term Outlook
Measure | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP | -0.4 | -0.9 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
Civilian unemployment rate1 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 4.2 |
PCE prices, total | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Core PCE prices | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
Federal funds rate1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table
Alternative Scenarios
Measure and scenario | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012-13 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H2 | H1 | H2 | ||||
Real GDP | ||||||
Greenbook Extension | -2.6 | -3.1 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 5.7 |
More financial stress | -2.6 | -4.0 | -0.6 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 5.5 |
Faster recovery | -2.6 | -3.0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 3.0 |
Bigger fiscal package | -2.6 | -1.8 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 5.4 |
Anchored inflation expectations | -2.6 | -3.1 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
Deflation | -2.6 | -3.1 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 5.5 |
Unemployment rate1 | ||||||
Greenbook Extension | 6.7 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 4.2 |
More financial stress | 6.7 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 5.4 |
Faster recovery | 6.7 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 3.9 |
Bigger fiscal package | 6.7 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 4.1 |
Anchored inflation expectations | 6.7 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 4.2 |
Deflation | 6.7 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 4.3 |
Core PCE inflation | ||||||
Greenbook Extension | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
More financial stress | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
Faster recovery | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
Bigger fiscal package | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
Anchored inflation expectations | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
Deflation | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
Federal funds rate1 | ||||||
Greenbook Extension | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
More financial stress | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Faster recovery | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 4.2 | 5.4 |
Bigger fiscal package | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.6 |
Anchored inflation expectations | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.8 |
Deflation | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.6 |
1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period. Return to table
Selected Greenbook Projections and 70 Percent Confidence Intervals Derived from Historical Greenbook Forecast Errors and FRB/US Simulations
Measure | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP (percent change, Q4 to Q4) | ||||||
Projection | -0.4 | -0.9 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
Greenbook forecast errors | -.8-.1 | -2.4-.6 | 1.1-3.8 | … | … | … |
FRB/US stochastic simulations | -.7-.1 | -2.0-.1 | 1.1-3.6 | 3.5-6.3 | 4.1-7.1 | 4.0-6.9 |
Civilian unemployment rate (percent, Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 6.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 4.2 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
Greenbook forecast errors | 6.6-6.8 | 7.5-8.7 | 7.2-9.2 | … | … | … |
FRB/US stochastic simulations | 6.6-6.8 | 7.7-8.5 | 7.7-8.8 | 6.3-7.6 | 4.9-6.3 | 3.6-5.2 |
PCE prices, total (percent change, Q4 to Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
Greenbook forecast errors | 1.7-2.1 | -.1-1.6 | .0-2.1 | … | … | … |
FRB/US stochastic simulations | 1.8-2.0 | .1-1.4 | .2-1.7 | -.1-1.5 | -.3-1.5 | -.3-1.6 |
PCE prices excluding food and energy (percent change, Q4 to Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
Greenbook forecast errors | 1.8-2.3 | .6-1.7 | -.2-1.7 | … | … | … |
FRB/US stochastic simulations | 2.0-2.1 | .7-1.5 | .2-1.3 | -.1-1.2 | -.3-1.2 | -.2-1.4 |
Federal funds rate (percent, Q4) | ||||||
Projection | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
Confidence interval | ||||||
FRB/US stochastic simulations | 1.1-1.1 | .3-1.3 | .3-1.6 | .3-1.7 | .3-1.6 | .3-2.7 |
Notes: Intervals derived from Greenbook forecast errors are based on projections made from 1987-2007. Shocks underlying FRB/US stochastic simulations are randomly drawn from the 1987-2007 set of model equation residuals.
… Not applicable. The Greenbook forecast horizon has typically extended about two years. Return to table
Forecast Confidence Intervals and Alternative Scenarios
Confidence Intervals Based on FRB/US Stochastic Simulations
Figure: Real GDP
4-quarter percent change, 2007-2013. Line chart. Greenbook Extension series begins at about 1.1 percent in early 2007, increases to about 2.8 percent in late 2007, then decreases to about -2.8 in early 2009. It then increases to end at about 5.7%. Faster recovery begins in early 2009 at about -3, increases to about 6 in early 2011, then decreases to end at about 1.7. Anchored inflation expectations begins in late 2010 at about 2.5 then increases to about 6 by late 2012, and ends at about 5. More financial stress starts at about -2 in late 2008, decreases to about -3.5 by mid 2009, then rises to end at about 5.5. Bigger fiscal package starts at about -.7 in late 2008, decreases to about -2.2 by mid 2009, then increases to about 6 by mid 2012, then decreases to end at about 5. Deflation begins at about 5 in mid 2011, increases and ends at about 5.5. There are 70 and 90 percent confidence interval bands shown in the chart. They begin in late 2008, both slightly widening until the end of the chart, By the end, the 90% band is between 3 and 8, and the 70% band is between 4 and 7.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
By Percent, 2007-2013. Line chart. Greenbook Extension series begins at about 4.5 percent in early 2007, increases to about 8.2 percent in late 2010 and decreases to about 4.25 percent at the end. The More financial stress series begins at about 7.5 in late 2008, increases to about 9.25% by early 2011, then decreases to about 5.4% by the end. The Anchored inflation expectations, Bigger fiscal package, and Deflation series all track closely, beginning at about 7.5 in late 2008, increasing slightly, then decreasing to about 4.25 percent by the end. The Faster recovery series begins at about 7.7% in late 2008, then decreases to about 3.7 percent by early 2013, and ends at about 3.8%. The 70 and 90 percent confidence intervals begin in late 2008. By early 2010, the 90 percent interval is between about 7.5 and 9, and the 70 percent interval is between about 7.8 and 8.8. They decrease together until the end, when the 90 percent confidence interval is between about 3.2 and 5.7 and the 70 percent interval is between about 3.7 and 5.2.
Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
4-quarter percent change. Line chart, 2007-2013. The Greenbook Extension series begins in early 2007 at about 2.3. It fluctuates until late 2008 when it decreases to end at about 0.7. The Deflation and More financial stress series' track closely. The begin at about 1.7 in late 2008 and decreases to end at about -.3. The Anchored inflation expectations and Faster recovery series' track closely. The begin at about 1.1. in late 2008, and increases to end at about 1.5. The Bigger fiscal package series starts at about 1 in 2008 and decreases slightly to end at about .9. There is a 70 percent confidence interval that widens during the period, ending at about -.3 to 1.3. There is a 90 percent confidence interval that widens during the period, ending at about -.8 to 1.8.
Figure: Federal Funds rate
By percent, 2007 to 2013, line chart. The Greenbook extension series begins at about 5.25% in early 2007, decreases to about .25% from early 2009 to late 2012, then rises to about 1.2% by the end. The Faster recovery series starts at about .25%, increasing starting in mid 2010, and ending at about 5.5% by the end of 2013. The Bigger fiscal package and Anchored inflation expectation series' track closesly, starting at .25%, and beginning to increase in mid 2012. They end at about 3.75%. The Deflation series starts at about .25%, begins to increase in early 2013 and ends at about 1.5%. The More financial stress series starts at about .25% and remains there until the end.
Evolution of the Staff Forecast
Figure: Change in Real GDP
January 2007 to December 2008. Line chart. Percent, Q4/Q4. The 2008 series begins at about 2.5 in early 2007, decreases to about 0 in March 2008, increases to about 1.5 in September 2008, then decreases to about -.5 by the end. The 2009 series begins at about 2 in September 2007, increases to about 3 by March 2008, and decreases to end at about -.9 by the end. The 2010 series starts at about 2.7 in September 2008, and decreases to end at about 2.4.
Figure: Unemployment Rate
January 2007 to December 2008. Line chart. Percent, fourth quarter. The 2008 series begins at about 4.9 in January 2007, fluctuates and then increases starting in December 2007 to end at about 6.8. The 2009 series starts in September 2007 at about 5 percent and increases to end at about 8.2 percent. The 2010 series starts in September 2008 at about 5.8% and increases to end at about 8.3.
Figure: Change in PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy
January 2007 to December 2008. Line chart. Percent, Q4/Q4. The 2008 series begins in January 2007 at about 2, and increases to about 2.3 by October 2008, then decreases to end at about 2. The 2009 series begins in September 2007 at about 2, then begins to decreases in mid 2008 and ends at about 1.2. The 2010 series stats in September 2008 at about 1.8 and decreases to end at about .8.
Changes in GDP, Prices, and Unemployment
Interval | Nominal GDP | Real GDP | PCE price index | Core PCE price index | Unemployment rate1 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10/22/08 | 12/10/08 | 10/22/08 | 12/10/08 | 10/22/08 | 12/10/08 | 10/22/08 | 12/10/08 | 10/22/08 | 12/10/08 | ||
Quarterly | |||||||||||
2008: | Q1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | .9 | .9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
Q2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | |
Q3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | -1.0 | -.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | |
Q4 | 2.9 | -2.4 | -1.3 | -4.7 | -2.2 | -5.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 6.3 | 6.7 | |
2009: | Q1 | .6 | -3.0 | -1.4 | -5.0 | .7 | -1.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 6.6 | 7.5 |
Q2 | 1.2 | .4 | -.4 | -1.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 6.9 | 7.8 | |
Q3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | .4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | |
Q4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | .8 | 7.2 | 8.1 | |
2010: | Q1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | .8 | 7.3 | 8.3 |
Q2 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | .8 | 7.3 | 8.3 | |
Q3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | .8 | 7.3 | 8.2 | |
Q4 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | .9 | 1.3 | .7 | 7.2 | 8.2 | |
Two-quarter2 | |||||||||||
2008: | Q2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | .5 | .5 |
Q4 | 3.0 | .6 | -1.2 | -2.6 | 1.6 | -.1 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | |
2009: | Q2 | .9 | -1.3 | -.9 | -3.1 | 1.2 | .2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | .6 | 1.1 |
Q4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | .7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | .9 | .3 | .3 | |
2010: | Q2 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | .8 | .1 | .2 |
Q4 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | .8 | -.1 | -.1 | |
Four-quarter3 | |||||||||||
2007:Q4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | .4 | .4 | |
2008:Q4 | 3.4 | 2.2 | .3 | -.4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | |
2009:Q4 | 1.5 | .6 | -.1 | -.9 | 1.4 | .7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | .9 | 1.4 | |
2010:Q4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | .8 | .0 | .1 | |
Annual | |||||||||||
2007 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | |
2008 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | |
2009 | 1.9 | .0 | -.5 | -2.0 | 1.3 | .1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 7.9 | |
2010 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | .8 | 7.3 | 8.2 |
1. Level, except for two-quarter and four-quarter intervals. Return to table
2. Percent change from two quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points. Return to table
3. Percent change from four quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points. Return to table
Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items
Item | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2008 1 | 2009 1 | 2010 1 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | ||||
Real GDP | .9 | 2.8 | -.4 | -4.7 | -5.0 | -1.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.0 | -.4 | -.9 | 2.4 |
Previous | .9 | 2.8 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -.4 | .4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | .3 | -.1 | 2.3 |
Final sales | .9 | 4.4 | -1.1 | -4.9 | -3.5 | -1.2 | -.8 | .1 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | -.3 | -1.4 | 2.4 |
Previous | .9 | 4.4 | -.8 | -3.5 | -1.4 | -.4 | -.2 | .1 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | .2 | -.5 | 2.3 |
Priv. dom. final purch. | -.3 | .7 | -3.9 | -6.6 | -5.2 | -2.2 | -.9 | .5 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.7 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 3.2 |
Previous | -.3 | .7 | -3.5 | -4.4 | -2.8 | -1.3 | -.6 | .3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.9 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 2.9 |
Personal cons. expend. | .9 | 1.2 | -3.7 | -4.3 | -1.3 | .9 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | -1.5 | .7 | 2.7 |
Previous | .9 | 1.2 | -3.3 | -2.4 | -.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 | -.9 | 1.0 | 2.4 |
Durables | -4.3 | -2.8 | -15.2 | -25.8 | -9.7 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | -12.5 | 1.2 | 6.5 |
Nondurables | -.4 | 3.9 | -6.9 | -6.0 | -2.1 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | -2.5 | -.2 | 2.5 |
Services | 2.4 | .7 | .0 | .6 | .3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | .9 | 1.1 | 2.3 |
Residential investment | -25.1 | -13.3 | -15.7 | -27.0 | -32.5 | -10.4 | -3.0 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 9.1 | -20.5 | -10.4 | 8.9 |
Previous | -25.1 | -13.3 | -19.7 | -24.4 | -24.8 | -17.0 | -17.1 | -2.8 | 4.6 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 19.5 | -20.8 | -15.8 | 13.4 |
Business fixed invest. | 2.4 | 2.5 | -.6 | -14.0 | -19.8 | -19.6 | -15.7 | -12.3 | -.9 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 8.4 | -2.7 | -16.9 | 4.8 |
Previous | 2.4 | 2.5 | .8 | -9.9 | -12.6 | -11.9 | -10.6 | -8.3 | -.5 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 8.2 | -1.2 | -10.9 | 4.1 |
Equipment & software | -.6 | -5.0 | -5.7 | -18.2 | -18.1 | -14.1 | -10.1 | -7.0 | 5.3 | 12.4 | 14.7 | 15.1 | -7.6 | -12.4 | 11.8 |
Previous | -.6 | -5.0 | -2.0 | -11.1 | -11.4 | -8.4 | -6.8 | -4.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 14.0 | -4.7 | -7.7 | 10.2 |
Nonres. structures | 8.6 | 18.5 | 9.5 | -6.1 | -22.7 | -28.4 | -25.0 | -21.4 | -12.0 | -10.0 | -7.0 | -5.3 | 7.2 | -24.4 | -8.6 |
Previous | 8.6 | 18.5 | 6.0 | -7.7 | -14.6 | -17.8 | -17.3 | -16.0 | -12.0 | -9.1 | -5.1 | -3.5 | 5.9 | -16.4 | -7.5 |
Net exports2 | -462 | -381 | -352 | -343 | -316 | -311 | -324 | -344 | -372 | -372 | -380 | -397 | -385 | -324 | -380 |
Previous2 | -462 | -381 | -346 | -335 | -317 | -303 | -299 | -307 | -326 | -313 | -312 | -326 | -381 | -307 | -319 |
Exports | 5.1 | 12.3 | 3.4 | -4.1 | -2.2 | -3.2 | -.7 | .9 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 4.0 | -1.3 | 2.6 |
Imports | -.8 | -7.3 | -3.2 | -5.2 | -7.4 | -3.7 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 6.5 | -4.2 | -1.0 | 4.9 |
Govt. cons. & invest. | 1.9 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 1.2 | -.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 | .6 | .6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Previous | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.8 | -1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | .7 | .6 | .9 | .9 | .1 | .1 | 2.4 | .9 | .5 |
Federal | 5.8 | 6.6 | 13.6 | 3.8 | .6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 | .7 | .7 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
Defense | 7.3 | 7.3 | 18.0 | 5.9 | .1 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
Nondefense | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.5 | -.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 6.3 | -2.0 | -2.0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
State & local | -.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | -.4 | -1.0 | 1.2 | .7 | .7 | .6 | .6 | .6 | .6 | .8 | .4 | .6 |
Change in bus. inventories2 | -10 | -51 | -33 | -29 | -73 | -73 | -19 | 22 | 42 | 23 | 16 | 28 | -31 | -36 | 27 |
Previous2 | -10 | -51 | -57 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 43 | 56 | 35 | 30 | 38 | -29 | 16 | 40 |
Nonfarm2 | -18 | -55 | -33 | -30 | -73 | -72 | -20 | 21 | 40 | 22 | 15 | 26 | -34 | -36 | 26 |
Farm2 | 6 | 2 | -0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table
2. Billions of chained (2000) dollars. Return to table
Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items
Item | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | -.4 | -.9 | 2.4 |
Previous | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | .3 | -.1 | 2.3 |
Final sales | .8 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | -.3 | -1.4 | 2.4 |
Previous | .8 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | .2 | -.5 | 2.3 |
Priv. dom. final purch. | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 3.2 |
Previous | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 2.9 |
Personal cons. expend. | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | -1.5 | .7 | 2.7 |
Previous | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.2 | -.9 | 1.0 | 2.4 |
Durables | 1.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 6.9 | 4.2 | -12.5 | 1.2 | 6.5 |
Nondurables | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.7 | -2.5 | -.2 | 2.5 |
Services | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | .9 | 1.1 | 2.3 |
Residential investment | 7.0 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 5.4 | -15.5 | -19.0 | -20.5 | -10.4 | 8.9 |
Previous | 7.0 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 5.4 | -15.5 | -19.0 | -20.8 | -15.8 | 13.4 |
Business fixed invest. | -6.5 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 6.4 | -2.7 | -16.9 | 4.8 |
Previous | -6.5 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 6.4 | -1.2 | -10.9 | 4.1 |
Equipment & software | -3.4 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 2.8 | -7.6 | -12.4 | 11.8 |
Previous | -3.4 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 2.8 | -4.7 | -7.7 | 10.2 |
Nonres. structures | -14.9 | .2 | 2.3 | -.5 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 7.2 | -24.4 | -8.6 |
Previous | -14.9 | .2 | 2.3 | -.5 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 5.9 | -16.4 | -7.5 |
Net exports1 | -471 | -519 | -594 | -617 | -616 | -547 | -385 | -324 | -380 |
Previous1 | -471 | -519 | -594 | -617 | -616 | -547 | -381 | -307 | -319 |
Exports | 3.8 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 4.0 | -1.3 | 2.6 |
Imports | 9.7 | 4.8 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | -4.2 | -1.0 | 4.9 |
Govt. cons. & invest. | 4.0 | 1.7 | .7 | .6 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Previous | 4.0 | 1.7 | .7 | .6 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | .9 | .5 |
Federal | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
Defense | 8.4 | 7.5 | 2.5 | .8 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
Nondefense | 6.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | .5 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
State & local | 2.1 | -.4 | -.4 | .3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | .8 | .4 | .6 |
Change in bus. inventories1 | 12 | 14 | 54 | 39 | 42 | -2 | -31 | -36 | 27 |
Previous1 | 12 | 14 | 54 | 39 | 42 | -2 | -29 | 16 | 40 |
Nonfarm1 | 15 | 14 | 48 | 39 | 46 | -4 | -34 | -36 | 26 |
Farm1 | -2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
1. Billions of chained (2000) dollars. Return to table
Contributions to Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product
Item | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2008 1 | 2009 1 | 2010 1 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | ||||
Real GDP | .9 | 2.8 | -.4 | -4.7 | -5.0 | -1.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.0 | -.4 | -.9 | 2.4 |
Previous | .9 | 2.8 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -.4 | .4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | .3 | -.1 | 2.3 |
Final sales | .9 | 4.3 | -1.1 | -5.0 | -3.4 | -1.2 | -.8 | .1 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | -.3 | -1.4 | 2.4 |
Previous | .9 | 4.3 | -.8 | -3.5 | -1.4 | -.4 | -.2 | .1 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | .2 | -.5 | 2.3 |
Priv. dom. final purch. | -.3 | .6 | -3.3 | -5.6 | -4.3 | -1.8 | -.7 | .4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | -2.2 | -1.6 | 2.6 |
Previous | -.3 | .6 | -3.0 | -3.8 | -2.3 | -1.1 | -.5 | .3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.2 | -1.6 | -.9 | 2.4 |
Personal cons. expend. | .6 | .9 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -.9 | .6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | -1.1 | .5 | 1.9 |
Previous | .6 | .9 | -2.3 | -1.7 | -.1 | .7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | -.7 | .7 | 1.7 |
Durables | -.3 | -.2 | -1.2 | -2.0 | -.6 | .4 | .2 | .3 | .3 | .5 | .4 | .4 | -.9 | .1 | .4 |
Nondurables | -.1 | .8 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -.4 | -.2 | .2 | .3 | .4 | .5 | .5 | .5 | -.5 | .0 | .5 |
Services | 1.0 | .3 | .0 | .3 | .2 | .4 | .6 | .8 | .9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | .4 | .5 | 1.0 |
Residential investment | -1.1 | -.5 | -.6 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -.3 | -.1 | .3 | .2 | .2 | .3 | .2 | -.8 | -.3 | .2 |
Previous | -1.1 | -.5 | -.8 | -.9 | -.8 | -.5 | -.5 | -.1 | .1 | .4 | .4 | .5 | -.8 | -.5 | .3 |
Business fixed invest. | .3 | .3 | -.1 | -1.6 | -2.3 | -2.2 | -1.6 | -1.2 | -.1 | .4 | .6 | .7 | -.3 | -1.8 | .4 |
Previous | .3 | .3 | .1 | -1.1 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.1 | -.8 | .0 | .3 | .6 | .8 | -.1 | -1.2 | .4 |
Equipment & software | .0 | -.4 | -.4 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -.7 | -.4 | .3 | .7 | .8 | .9 | -.6 | -.8 | .7 |
Previous | .0 | -.4 | -.1 | -.8 | -.8 | -.6 | -.4 | -.3 | .4 | .5 | .7 | .9 | -.3 | -.5 | .6 |
Nonres. structures | .3 | .6 | .4 | -.2 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -.8 | -.4 | -.3 | -.2 | -.1 | .3 | -1.0 | -.3 |
Previous | .3 | .6 | .2 | -.3 | -.6 | -.7 | -.7 | -.6 | -.4 | -.3 | -.2 | -.1 | .2 | -.6 | -.2 |
Net exports | .8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | .4 | .9 | .1 | -.4 | -.7 | -.9 | .0 | -.2 | -.6 | 1.2 | .0 | -.4 |
Previous | .8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | .4 | .6 | .5 | .2 | -.3 | -.7 | .4 | .0 | -.5 | 1.3 | .2 | -.2 |
Exports | .6 | 1.5 | .5 | -.6 | -.3 | -.4 | -.1 | .1 | .2 | .3 | .4 | .4 | .5 | -.2 | .3 |
Imports | .1 | 1.4 | .6 | .9 | 1.2 | .6 | -.3 | -.8 | -1.2 | -.3 | -.6 | -1.0 | .7 | .2 | -.8 |
Govt. cons. & invest. | .4 | .8 | 1.1 | .3 | -.1 | .4 | .3 | .4 | .4 | .3 | .1 | .1 | .6 | .3 | .2 |
Previous | .4 | .8 | 1.0 | -.2 | .3 | .2 | .1 | .1 | .2 | .2 | .0 | .0 | .5 | .2 | .1 |
Federal | .4 | .5 | 1.0 | .3 | .1 | .3 | .2 | .3 | .3 | .3 | .1 | .1 | .5 | .2 | .2 |
Defense | .3 | .4 | .9 | .3 | .0 | .2 | .2 | .2 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .5 | .1 | .1 |
Nondefense | .1 | .1 | .1 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .1 | .2 | .2 | .0 | .0 | .1 | .1 | .1 |
State & local | .0 | .3 | .2 | .0 | -.1 | .2 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .1 | .0 | .1 |
Change in bus. inventories | .0 | -1.5 | .7 | .3 | -1.6 | .0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | .7 | -.6 | -.2 | .4 | -.1 | .4 | .0 |
Previous | .0 | -1.5 | -.2 | 2.2 | .0 | .0 | .6 | .9 | .5 | -.8 | -.2 | .3 | .1 | .4 | .0 |
Nonfarm | .2 | -1.4 | .8 | .1 | -1.5 | .0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | .7 | -.6 | -.2 | .4 | -.1 | .5 | .0 |
Farm | -.2 | -.1 | -.1 | .1 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 |
1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table
Changes in Prices and Costs
Item | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2008 1 | 2009 1 | 2010 1 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | ||||
GDP chain-wt. price index | 2.6 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | .9 | .8 | .9 | .8 | .7 | 2.6 | 1.5 | .8 |
Previous | 2.6 | 1.1 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
PCE chain-wt. price index | 3.6 | 4.3 | 5.2 | -5.1 | -1.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | .9 | 1.9 | .7 | 1.0 |
Previous | 3.6 | 4.3 | 5.6 | -2.2 | .7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Energy | 19.0 | 27.4 | 31.6 | -66.8 | -48.3 | 19.2 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 3.6 | -9.8 | -8.1 | 4.8 |
Previous | 19.0 | 27.4 | 31.7 | -51.9 | -17.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.9 | -1.0 | -2.3 | 3.3 |
Food | 4.9 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | .9 | .9 | .9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
Previous | 4.9 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
Ex. food & energy | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | .8 | .8 | .8 | .8 | .7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | .8 |
Previous | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
CPI | 4.3 | 5.0 | 6.7 | -8.5 | -3.2 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.7 | .7 | 1.3 |
Previous | 4.3 | 5.0 | 6.7 | -4.5 | .3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Ex. food & energy | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.2 | .8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | .9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Previous | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
ECI, hourly compensation2 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Previous2 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
Nonfarm business sector | |||||||||||||||
Output per hour | 2.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | .4 | -2.5 | .2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | .8 | 2.4 |
Previous | 2.6 | 3.6 | -.3 | .8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
Compensation per hour | 3.8 | .9 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
Previous | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
Unit labor costs | 1.2 | -2.6 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 2.5 | -.2 | -.7 | -.9 | -.8 | -.6 | -.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | -.8 |
Previous | 1.2 | .1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | .7 | .9 | -.1 | .2 | .0 | -.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | -.1 |
Core goods imports chain-wt price index3 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 4.6 | -7.0 | -8.5 | -2.4 | -.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3.9 | -2.7 | 1.3 |
Previous3 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.5 | -2.9 | -4.5 | .2 | .7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5.5 | -.5 | 1.5 |
1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated. Return to table
2. Private-industry workers. Return to table
3. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Return to table
Changes in Prices and Costs
Item | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP chain-wt. price index | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | .8 |
Previous | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
PCE chain-wt. price index | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 1.9 | .7 | 1.0 |
Previous | 1.8 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Energy | 7.7 | 7.6 | 18.3 | 23.1 | -4.0 | 19.1 | -9.8 | -8.1 | 4.8 |
Previous | 7.7 | 7.6 | 18.3 | 23.1 | -4.0 | 19.1 | -1.0 | -2.3 | 3.3 |
Food | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
Previous | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
Ex. food & energy | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | .8 |
Previous | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
CPI | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | .7 | 1.3 |
Previous | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Ex. food & energy | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Previous | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
ECI, hourly compensation1 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Previous1 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
Nonfarm business sector | |||||||||
Output per hour | 2.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | .6 | 2.7 | 2.0 | .8 | 2.4 |
Previous | 2.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | .6 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
Compensation per hour | 3.2 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
Previous | 3.2 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
Unit labor costs | .2 | .5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.6 | .9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | -.8 |
Previous | .2 | .5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.6 | .9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | -.1 |
Core goods imports chain-wt. price index2 | .1 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | -2.7 | 1.3 |
Previous2 | .1 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 5.5 | -.5 | 1.5 |
1. Private-industry workers. Return to table
2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil and natural gas. Return to table
Other Macroeconomic Indicators
Item | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2008 1 | 2009 1 | 2010 1 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | ||||
Employment and production | |||||||||||||||
Nonfarm payroll employment2 | -.1 | -.2 | -.4 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -.4 | -.2 | -.1 | -.1 | .3 | .0 | .2 | -1.9 | -2.1 | .5 |
Unemployment rate3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 |
Previous3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
GDP gap4 | -.7 | -.6 | -1.3 | -3.1 | -4.8 | -5.6 | -5.9 | -6.0 | -6.1 | -6.1 | -6.0 | -5.8 | -3.1 | -6.0 | -5.8 |
Previous4 | -.6 | -.5 | -1.4 | -2.3 | -3.2 | -3.9 | -4.3 | -4.7 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.7 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -4.7 |
Industrial production5 | .4 | -3.4 | -7.6 | -9.1 | -6.5 | -1.0 | .2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | -5.0 | -1.5 | 2.6 |
Previous5 | .4 | -3.1 | -6.0 | -.6 | -.1 | -.1 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.3 | -2.4 | .9 | 2.7 |
Manufacturing industr. prod.5 | -1.0 | -4.0 | -7.8 | -13.2 | -8.5 | .0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | -6.6 | -1.7 | 2.5 |
Previous5 | -1.0 | -3.8 | -5.8 | -4.8 | -2.6 | -.4 | .9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.9 | -3.8 | -.1 | 3.2 |
Capacity utilization rate - mfg.3 | 78.7 | 77.5 | 75.7 | 72.8 | 71.2 | 71.2 | 71.3 | 71.6 | 71.8 | 72.3 | 73.0 | 73.7 | 72.8 | 71.6 | 73.7 |
Previous3 | 78.7 | 77.6 | 76.1 | 74.9 | 74.3 | 74.1 | 74.1 | 74.4 | 74.7 | 75.1 | 75.7 | 76.3 | 74.9 | 74.4 | 76.3 |
Housing starts6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | .9 | .7 | .7 | .7 | .8 | .8 | .9 | .9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | .9 | .7 | .9 |
Light motor vehicle sales6 | 15.2 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 11.3 | 13.0 |
Income and saving | |||||||||||||||
Nominal GDP5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.6 | -2.4 | -3.0 | .4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.2 | .6 | 3.2 |
Real disposable pers. income5 | -.7 | 10.7 | -9.2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | .9 | -.5 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
Previous5 | -.7 | 11.9 | -8.4 | -.2 | 3.7 | .3 | .1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | .9 | 2.7 | 2.4 | .4 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Personal saving rate3 | .2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
Previous3 | .2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
Corporate profits7 | -4.3 | -14.3 | -3.0 | -22.0 | -21.9 | -1.6 | 1.4 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 6.7 | -11.2 | -4.6 | 6.7 |
Profit share of GNP3 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 9.7 |
Net federal saving8 | -331 | -650 | -544 | -555 | -707 | -796 | -822 | -830 | -876 | -869 | -892 | -893 | -520 | -789 | -882 |
Net state & local saving8 | -52 | -67 | -102 | -103 | -92 | -97 | -101 | -95 | -90 | -89 | -83 | -77 | -81 | -96 | -85 |
Gross national saving rate3 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 11.3 |
Net national saving rate3 | .0 | -1.3 | -2.0 | -.3 | -.7 | -1.5 | -1.9 | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -.3 | -2.1 | -2.4 |
1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise indicated. Return to table
2. Change, millions. Return to table
3. Percent, annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
4. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
5. Percent change, annual rate. Return to table
6. Level, millions, annual values are annual averages. Return to table
7. Percent change, annual rate, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Return to table
8. Billions of dollars, annual values are annual averages. Return to table
Other Macroeconomic Indicators
Item | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Employment and production | |||||||||
Nonfarm payroll employment1 | -.7 | -.1 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | -1.9 | -2.1 | .5 |
Unemployment rate2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 8.2 |
Previous2 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
GDP gap3 | -2.5 | -1.7 | -.7 | -.2 | -.1 | -.3 | -3.1 | -6.0 | -5.8 |
Previous3 | -2.4 | -1.6 | -.6 | -.1 | .0 | -.2 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -4.7 |
Industrial production4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 | -5.0 | -1.5 | 2.6 |
Previous4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 | -2.4 | .9 | 2.7 |
Manufacturing industr. prod.4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 2.3 | -6.6 | -1.7 | 2.5 |
Previous4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 2.3 | -3.8 | -.1 | 3.2 |
Capacity utilization rate - mfg.2 | 73.2 | 74.8 | 77.5 | 79.2 | 79.0 | 79.3 | 72.8 | 71.6 | 73.7 |
Previous2 | 73.2 | 74.8 | 77.5 | 79.2 | 79.0 | 79.3 | 74.9 | 74.4 | 76.3 |
Housing starts5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | .9 | .7 | .9 |
Light motor vehicle sales5 | 16.7 | 16.6 | 16.8 | 16.9 | 16.5 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 11.3 | 13.0 |
Income and saving | |||||||||
Nominal GDP4 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | .6 | 3.2 |
Real disposable pers. income4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 4.1 | .9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
Previous4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 4.1 | .9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | .4 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Personal saving rate2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | .8 | .9 | .4 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
Previous2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | .8 | .9 | .4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
Corporate profits6 | 20.6 | 12.6 | 20.3 | 18.8 | 6.9 | -2.0 | -11.2 | -4.6 | 6.7 |
Profit share of GNP2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 9.7 |
Net federal saving7 | -248 | -372 | -371 | -292 | -201 | -229 | -520 | -789 | -882 |
Net state & local saving7 | -34 | -20 | 2 | 29 | 46 | 10 | -81 | -96 | -85 |
Gross national saving rate2 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 13.8 | 15.0 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 11.3 |
Net national saving rate2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | -.3 | -2.1 | -2.4 |
1. Change, millions. Return to table
2. Percent, values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
3. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Return to table
4. Percent change. Return to table
5. Level, millions, values are annual averages. Return to table
6. Percent change, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Return to table
7. Billions of dollars, values are annual averages. Return to table
Staff Projections of Federal Sector Accounts and Related Items
Item | Fiscal year | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007a | 2008a | 2009 | 2010 | Q1a | Q2a | Q3a | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
Unified budget | Not seasonally adjusted | |||||||||||||||
Receipts1 | 2568 | 2524 | 2377 | 2429 | 540 | 788 | 590 | 559 | 484 | 742 | 591 | 565 | 517 | 743 | 604 | 586 |
Outlays1 | 2729 | 2978 | 4053 | 3272 | 746 | 761 | 759 | 1062 | 1051 | 1057 | 882 | 825 | 829 | 819 | 799 | 865 |
Surplus/deficit1 | -162 | -455 | -1675 | -842 | -206 | 27 | -169 | -503 | -567 | -315 | -291 | -260 | -312 | -76 | -195 | -278 |
Previous | -162 | -455 | -853 | -587 | -206 | 27 | -169 | -456 | -277 | 9 | -128 | -212 | -258 | 11 | -128 | -218 |
On-budget | -343 | -638 | -1832 | -992 | -237 | -64 | -171 | -569 | -577 | -400 | -287 | -317 | -322 | -162 | -192 | -338 |
Off-budget | 181 | 183 | 157 | 150 | 31 | 91 | 2 | 66 | 10 | 85 | -4 | 57 | 10 | 86 | -3 | 59 |
Means of financing | ||||||||||||||||
Borrowing | 206 | 768 | 1461 | 860 | 200 | -48 | 526 | 529 | 343 | 281 | 307 | 249 | 302 | 100 | 210 | 268 |
Cash decrease | -23 | -296 | 322 | 0 | 11 | -7 | -318 | 32 | 264 | 30 | -5 | 15 | 15 | -20 | -10 | 15 |
Other2 | -22 | -17 | -108 | -18 | -5 | 29 | -39 | -59 | -41 | 4 | -12 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 |
Cash operating balance, end of period | 75 | 372 | 50 | 50 | 46 | 53 | 372 | 339 | 75 | 45 | 50 | 35 | 20 | 40 | 50 | 35 |
NIPA federal sector | Seasonally adjusted annual rates | |||||||||||||||
Receipts | 2624 | 2606 | 2528 | 2569 | 2673 | 2479 | 2595 | 2583 | 2512 | 2493 | 2525 | 2552 | 2554 | 2573 | 2598 | 2623 |
Expenditures | 2832 | 3047 | 3248 | 3436 | 3003 | 3128 | 3140 | 3137 | 3219 | 3289 | 3347 | 3382 | 3430 | 3442 | 3490 | 3517 |
Consumption expenditures | 842 | 910 | 980 | 1032 | 898 | 918 | 954 | 962 | 974 | 987 | 998 | 1011 | 1029 | 1042 | 1048 | 1053 |
Defense | 569 | 624 | 677 | 707 | 614 | 629 | 660 | 666 | 671 | 681 | 689 | 696 | 704 | 710 | 717 | 723 |
Nondefense | 273 | 286 | 303 | 326 | 284 | 289 | 294 | 295 | 302 | 306 | 309 | 315 | 325 | 332 | 331 | 330 |
Other spending | 1990 | 2136 | 2268 | 2404 | 2105 | 2210 | 2186 | 2176 | 2245 | 2302 | 2349 | 2371 | 2401 | 2400 | 2442 | 2464 |
Current account surplus | -209 | -440 | -720 | -867 | -331 | -650 | -545 | -555 | -707 | -796 | -822 | -830 | -876 | -869 | -892 | -893 |
Gross investment | 123 | 134 | 146 | 151 | 129 | 138 | 144 | 145 | 144 | 146 | 148 | 149 | 150 | 151 | 153 | 154 |
Gross saving less gross investment3 | -221 | -458 | -742 | -888 | -344 | -671 | -569 | -579 | -728 | -818 | -843 | -852 | -897 | -889 | -912 | -913 |
Fiscal indicators4 | ||||||||||||||||
High-employment (HEB) surplus/deficit | -225 | -430 | -527 | -572 | -325 | -646 | -507 | -450 | -532 | -570 | -556 | -542 | -584 | -570 | -593 | -599 |
Change in HEB, percent of potential GDP | -0.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.2 | -1.0 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Fiscal impetus (FI), percent of GDP | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Previous | 0.2 | 0.7 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
1. Budget receipts, outlays, and surplus/deficit include corresponding social security (OASDI) categories. The OASDI surplus and the Postal Service surplus are excluded from the on-budget surplus and shown separately as off-budget, as classified under current law. Return to table
2. Other means of financing are checks issued less checks paid, accrued items, and changes in other financial assets and liabilities. Return to table
3. Gross saving is the current account surplus plus consumption of fixed capital of the general government as well as government enterprises. Return to table
4. HEB is gross saving less gross investment (NIPA) of the federal government in current dollars, with cyclically sensitive receipts and outlays adjusted to the staff's measure of potential output and the NAIRU. Quarterly figures for change in HEB and FI are not at annual rates. The sign on Change in HEB, as a percent of nominal potential GDP, is reversed. FI is the weighted difference of discretionary changes in federal spending and taxes in chained (2000) dollars, scaled by real GDP. The annual FI estimates are on a calendar year basis. Also, for FI and the change in HEB, positive values indicate aggregate demand stimulus. Return to table
a--Actual Return to table
Change in Debt of the Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors
Period1 | Total | Households | Business | State and local governments | Federal government | Memo: Nominal GDP | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | Home mortgages | Consumer credit | |||||||
Year | |||||||||
2003 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 14.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 5.9 | |
2004 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 13.6 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 6.5 | |
2005 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 6.3 | |
2006 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 5.3 | |
2007 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | |
2008 | 5.6 | .1 | -.7 | 1.7 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 23.6 | 2.2 | |
2009 | 4.4 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -1.3 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 18.7 | .6 | |
2010 | 4.3 | 1.1 | .3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 11.7 | 3.2 | |
Quarter | |||||||||
2008: | 1 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 |
2 | 3.1 | .6 | -.1 | 3.9 | 5.6 | .8 | 5.9 | 4.1 | |
3 | 7.2 | -.8 | -2.4 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 39.2 | 3.6 | |
4 | 6.3 | -2.5 | -2.8 | -2.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 34.9 | -2.4 | |
2009: | 1 | 3.3 | -1.9 | -1.8 | -3.4 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 15.6 | -3.0 |
2 | 5.5 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.8 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 24.8 | .4 | |
3 | 4.6 | -.7 | -.9 | -.7 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 17.2 | 2.4 | |
4 | 3.8 | -.3 | -.7 | .5 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 12.5 | 2.5 | |
2010: | 1 | 3.8 | .2 | -.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 2.7 |
2 | 4.2 | .7 | .0 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 11.7 | 3.1 | |
3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | .5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 3.4 | |
4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 12.1 | 3.7 |
Note. Quarterly data are at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
1. Data after 2008:Q3 are staff projections. Changes are measured from end of the preceding period to end of period indicated except for annual nominal GDP growth, which is calculated from Q4 to Q4. Return to table
2.6.3 FOF
Flow of Funds Projections: Highlights
Category | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |||||
Domestic nonfinancial sectors | ||||||||||||||
Net funds raised | ||||||||||||||
Total | 1692.2 | 1373.3 | 1211.8 | 1269.1 | 1934.5 | 1630.0 | 832.0 | 1605.8 | 1325.9 | 1083.6 | 1086.9 | 1258.4 | 1208.7 | 1522.2 |
Net equity issuance | -831.2 | -410.5 | -255.0 | -240.0 | -413.6 | -460.0 | -280.0 | -260.0 | -240.0 | -240.0 | -240.0 | -240.0 | -240.0 | -240.0 |
Net debt issuance | 2523.4 | 1783.8 | 1466.8 | 1509.1 | 2348.1 | 2090.0 | 1112.0 | 1865.8 | 1565.9 | 1323.6 | 1326.9 | 1498.4 | 1448.7 | 1762.2 |
Borrowing indicators | ||||||||||||||
Debt (percent of GDP)1 | 220.6 | 228.0 | 239.3 | 243.1 | 226.6 | 231.9 | 236.4 | 238.8 | 240.3 | 241.4 | 242.0 | 242.6 | 243.1 | 243.5 |
Borrowing (percent of GDP) | 18.3 | 12.5 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 16.3 | 14.6 | 7.8 | 13.1 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 11.8 |
Households | ||||||||||||||
Net borrowing2 | 876.3 | 11.5 | -137.3 | 147.3 | -117.4 | -349.9 | -257.4 | -166.4 | -90.2 | -35.4 | 21.5 | 102.3 | 173.8 | 291.7 |
Home mortgages | 674.5 | -73.6 | -124.2 | 35.5 | -258.9 | -300.0 | -189.3 | -142.0 | -94.6 | -71.0 | -47.3 | 0.0 | 47.3 | 142.0 |
Consumer credit | 133.6 | 44.6 | -35.0 | 80.3 | 30.5 | -72.0 | -89.3 | -45.6 | -17.7 | 12.6 | 38.0 | 71.3 | 95.0 | 116.7 |
Debt/DPI (percent)3 | 131.5 | 129.8 | 125.7 | 122.6 | 130.4 | 129.8 | 127.1 | 125.7 | 125.1 | 124.2 | 123.3 | 122.7 | 122.1 | 121.6 |
Business | ||||||||||||||
Financing gap4 | 185.6 | 181.2 | 73.3 | 78.7 | 134.5 | 103.0 | 93.0 | 54.1 | 63.2 | 82.8 | 98.1 | 72.9 | 62.7 | 81.0 |
Net equity issuance | -831.2 | -410.5 | -255.0 | -240.0 | -413.6 | -460.0 | -280.0 | -260.0 | -240.0 | -240.0 | -240.0 | -240.0 | -240.0 | -240.0 |
Credit market borrowing | 1224.2 | 516.2 | 291.6 | 341.0 | 321.7 | 375.6 | 270.4 | 282.8 | 308.0 | 305.2 | 345.6 | 350.3 | 322.4 | 345.6 |
State and local governments | ||||||||||||||
Net borrowing | 185.9 | 48.4 | 131.6 | 141.6 | 65.3 | 35.0 | 113.6 | 121.6 | 145.6 | 145.6 | 141.6 | 141.6 | 141.6 | 141.6 |
Current surplus5 | 246.6 | 146.7 | 119.3 | 136.7 | 109.6 | 107.3 | 120.9 | 118.0 | 115.7 | 122.6 | 129.0 | 131.5 | 139.8 | 146.7 |
Federal government | ||||||||||||||
Net borrowing | 237.1 | 1207.7 | 1181.0 | 879.1 | 2078.5 | 2029.3 | 985.4 | 1627.8 | 1202.4 | 908.2 | 818.2 | 904.2 | 810.9 | 983.2 |
Net borrowing (n.s.a.) | 237.1 | 1207.7 | 1181.0 | 879.1 | 526.5 | 529.4 | 343.4 | 280.9 | 307.5 | 249.1 | 301.6 | 100.0 | 209.6 | 267.9 |
Unified deficit (n.s.a.) | 187.9 | 851.0 | 1431.9 | 861.1 | 168.9 | 503.0 | 566.9 | 314.7 | 290.6 | 259.6 | 312.1 | 75.5 | 195.1 | 278.4 |
Depository institutions | ||||||||||||||
Funds supplied | 851.7 | 184.2 | 265.8 | 460.4 | -43.3 | -188.1 | 261.5 | 81.0 | 341.0 | 379.6 | 468.7 | 618.8 | 460.9 | 293.1 |
Note. Data after 2008:Q3 are staff projections.
1. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by nominal GDP. Return to table
2. Includes change in liabilities not shown in home mortgages and consumer credit. Return to table
3. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by disposable personal income. Return to table
4. For corporations, excess of capital expenditures over U.S. internal funds. Return to table
5. NIPA state and local government saving plus consumption of fixed capital and net capital transfers. Return to table
n.s.a. Not seasonally adjusted. Return to table
2.6.4 FOF
† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text