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December 2008 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts


Domestic Developments

Key Background Factors Underlying the Baseline Staff Projection

Note: In each panel, shading represents the projection period, which begins in 2009:Q1 except as noted.

Figure: Federal Funds Rate
Quarterly average
Percent
Period Current Greenbook October Greenbook
2005:Q1 2.45 2.45
2005:Q2 2.94 2.94
2005:Q3 3.40 3.40
2005:Q4 3.95 3.95
2006:Q1 4.42 4.42
2006:Q2 4.90 4.90
2006:Q3 5.25 5.25
2006:Q4 5.25 5.25
2007:Q1 5.25 5.25
2007:Q2 5.25 5.25
2007:Q3 5.20 5.20
2007:Q4 4.50 4.50
2008:Q1 3.17 3.17
2008:Q2 2.10 2.10
2008:Q3 2.00 2.00
2008:Q4 1.10 1.15
2009:Q1 0.35 0.60
2009:Q2 0.25 0.50
2009:Q3 0.25 0.50
2009:Q4 0.25 0.50
2010:Q1 0.25 0.50
2010:Q2 0.25 0.50
2010:Q3 0.25 0.75
2010:Q4 0.25 1.00

As shown in the figure, the "Market forecast" curve is about 0.25 percent in 2009:Q1, and then increases steadily to about 1.7 percent by 2010:Q4.


Figure: Long-Term Interest Rates
Quarterly average
Percent
Period Baa corporate rate:
Current Greenbook
Baa corporate rate:
October Greenbook
10-year Treasury rate:
Current Greenbook
10-year Treasury rate:
October Greenbook
2005:Q1 5.97 5.97 4.30 4.30
2005:Q2 5.97 5.97 4.16 4.16
2005:Q3 5.98 5.98 4.22 4.22
2005:Q4 6.34 6.34 4.49 4.49
2006:Q1 6.31 6.31 4.58 4.58
2006:Q2 6.74 6.74 5.07 5.07
2006:Q3 6.59 6.59 4.89 4.89
2006:Q4 6.28 6.28 4.63 4.63
2007:Q1 6.30 6.30 4.68 4.68
2007:Q2 6.49 6.49 4.85 4.85
2007:Q3 6.63 6.63 4.74 4.74
2007:Q4 6.51 6.51 4.27 4.27
2008:Q1 6.75 6.75 3.67 3.67
2008:Q2 6.99 6.99 3.88 3.88
2008:Q3 7.21 7.21 3.86 3.86
2008:Q4 8.95 9.05 3.35 3.75
2009:Q1 8.60 8.65 2.70 3.75
2009:Q2 8.25 8.25 2.75 3.75
2009:Q3 7.90 7.95 2.80 3.75
2009:Q4 7.60 7.65 2.85 3.75
2010:Q1 7.30 7.40 2.90 3.75
2010:Q2 7.05 7.20 2.95 3.75
2010:Q3 6.75 7.00 2.95 3.75
2010:Q4 6.50 6.80 3.00 3.75

As shown in the figure, the "Conforming mortgage rate" series for both the current and October Greenbooks begin in 2005 at about 5.8%. They fluctuate but stay about the same until late 2008. Between late 2008 and 2010, the October Greenbook series slightly declines from about 6.2% to about 5.8%, while the Current Greenbook series drops from about 6.2% to about 5%.


Figure: Equity Prices
Quarter-end
2005:Q1 = 100, ratio scale
Period Wilshire 5000:
Current Greenbook
Wilshire 5000:
October Greenbook
2005:Q1 100.00 100.00
2005:Q2 102.05 102.05
2005:Q3 105.59 105.59
2005:Q4 107.56 107.56
2006:Q1 113.04 113.04
2006:Q2 110.41 110.41
2006:Q3 114.67 114.67
2006:Q4 122.51 122.51
2007:Q1 123.81 123.81
2007:Q2 130.70 130.70
2007:Q3 132.00 132.00
2007:Q4 127.33 127.33
2008:Q1 114.55 114.55
2008:Q2 112.33 112.33
2008:Q3 102.04 102.03
2008:Q4 76.56 84.12
2009:Q1 78.41 86.14
2009:Q2 80.30 88.20
2009:Q3 82.96 91.12
2009:Q4 85.71 94.17
2010:Q1 88.54 97.31
2010:Q2 91.51 100.53
2010:Q3 93.70 102.94
2010:Q4 95.98 105.43

Figure: House Prices
Quarterly
2005:Q1 = 100, ratio scale
Period LoanPerformance index:
Current Greenbook
2005:Q1 100.00
2005:Q2 103.70
2005:Q3 107.13
2005:Q4 109.05
2006:Q1 109.59
2006:Q2 109.01
2006:Q3 108.94
2006:Q4 109.40
2007:Q1 108.81
2007:Q2 107.30
2007:Q3 104.43
2007:Q4 100.42
2008:Q1 96.95
2008:Q2 95.86
2008:Q3 92.69
2008:Q4 88.63
2009:Q1 84.98
2009:Q2 81.74
2009:Q3 79.15
2009:Q4 77.43
2010:Q1 76.22
2010:Q2 75.37
2010:Q3 74.97
2010:Q4 74.85

Note: The projection period begins in 2008:Q4.

Note: The LoanPerformance Index series for the October Greenbook begins at the end of 2008 at about 96. It declines to about 72 by the end of 2010.


Figure: Crude Oil Prices
Quarterly average
Dollars per barrel
Period West Texas intermediate:
Current Greenbook
West Texas intermediate:
October Greenbook
2005:Q1 49.68 49.68
2005:Q2 53.09 53.09
2005:Q3 63.08 63.08
2005:Q4 60.03 60.03
2006:Q1 63.36 63.34
2006:Q2 70.54 70.53
2006:Q3 70.44 70.44
2006:Q4 60.07 60.04
2007:Q1 57.99 58.02
2007:Q2 64.97 64.97
2007:Q3 75.48 75.48
2007:Q4 90.75 90.75
2008:Q1 97.95 97.91
2008:Q2 123.96 123.88
2008:Q3 118.01 118.01
2008:Q4 59.36 73.86
2009:Q1 46.23 73.13
2009:Q2 51.57 74.66
2009:Q3 54.62 76.22
2009:Q4 57.15 77.83
2010:Q1 59.57 79.42
2010:Q2 61.79 80.84
2010:Q3 63.76 82.08
2010:Q4 65.63 83.15

Figure: Broad Real Dollar
Quarterly average
2005:Q1 = 100
Period Exchange Rate:
Current Greenbook
Exchange Rate:
October Greenbook
2005:Q1 100.00 100.00
2005:Q2 101.27 101.27
2005:Q3 102.36 102.35
2005:Q4 103.51 103.50
2006:Q1 101.94 101.95
2006:Q2 100.69 100.69
2006:Q3 100.62 100.61
2006:Q4 99.14 99.14
2007:Q1 99.09 99.09
2007:Q2 97.11 97.11
2007:Q3 95.12 95.11
2007:Q4 91.97 91.97
2008:Q1 90.05 90.05
2008:Q2 88.50 88.50
2008:Q3 90.84 90.85
2008:Q4 99.04 97.93
2009:Q1 99.31 97.39
2009:Q2 99.40 96.68
2009:Q3 99.20 95.96
2009:Q4 98.79 95.24
2010:Q1 98.15 94.39
2010:Q2 97.45 93.49
2010:Q3 96.70 92.55
2010:Q4 95.90 91.59

Summary of the Near-Term Outlook

(Percent change at annual rate except as noted)
Measure 2008:Q3 2008:Q4
Oct.
GB
Dec.
GB
Oct.
GB
Dec.
GB
Real GDP -1.0 -.4 -1.3 -4.7
Private domestic final purchases -3.5 -3.9 -4.4 -6.6
Personal consumption expenditures -3.3 -3.7 -2.4 -4.3
Residential investment -19.7 -15.7 -24.4 -27.0
Business fixed investment .8 -.6 -9.9 -14.0
Government outlays for consumption and investment 4.8 5.8 -1.0 1.2
Contribution to growth (percentage points)
Inventory investment -.2 .7 2.2 .3
Net exports 1.2 1.1 .4 .4

Projections of Real GDP

(Percent change at annual rate from end of preceding period except as noted)
Measure 2008:H2 2009:H1 2009 2010
Real GDP -2.6 -3.1 -.9 2.4
Previous -1.2 -.9 -.1 2.3
Final sales -3.1 -2.4 -1.4 2.4
Previous -2.1 -.9 -.5 2.3
PCE -4.0 -.2 .7 2.7
Previous -2.9 .4 1.0 2.4
Residential investment -21.6 -22.2 -10.4 8.9
Previous -22.1 -21.0 -15.8 13.4
BFI -7.5 -19.7 -16.9 4.8
Previous -4.7 -12.2 -10.9 4.1
Government purchases 3.4 .8 1.2 1.2
Previous 1.9 1.2 .9 .5
Exports -.4 -2.7 -1.3 2.6
Previous 5.3 3.1 2.8 3.9
Imports -4.2 -5.6 -1.0 4.9
Previous -.7 -.7 .9 4.3
Contribution to growth (percentage points)
Inventory change .5 -.7 .4 .0
Previous 1.0 .0 .4 -.0
Net exports .7 .5 -.0 -.4
Previous .8 .5 .2 -.2

… Not applicable.


Decomposition of Structural Labor Productivity

Nonfarm Business Sector
(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)
Measure 1974-95 1996-2000 2001-06 2007 2008 2009 2010
Structural labor productivity 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7
Previous 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8
Contributions1
Capital deepening .7 1.4 .7 .6 .4 -.0 .1
Previous .7 1.4 .7 .6 .5 .2 .3
Multifactor productivity .5 .7 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.5
Previous .5 .7 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4
Labor composition .3 .3 .3 .2 .2 .2 .1
Memo
Potential GDP 3.0 3.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2
Previous 3.0 3.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. For multiyear periods, the percent change is the annual average from Q4 of the year preceding the first year shown to Q4 of the last year shown.

1. Percentage points.  Return to table

… Not applicable.


The Outlook for the Labor Market

(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)
Measure 2007 2008 2009 2010
Output per hour, nonfarm business 2.7 2.0 .8 2.4
Previous 2.7 1.7 1.7 2.2
Nonfarm private payroll employment .9 -1.8 -1.9 .4
Previous .9 -1.2 -1.4 .7
Household survey employment .4 -1.3 -.9 .6
Previous .4 -.8 -.5 .8
Labor force participation rate1 66.0 65.9 65.5 65.3
Previous 66.0 66.0 65.6 65.4
Civilian unemployment rate1 4.8 6.7 8.1 8.2
Previous 4.8 6.3 7.2 7.2
Memo
GDP gap2 -.3 -3.1 -6.0 -5.8
Previous -.2 -2.3 -4.7 -4.7

1. Percent, average for the fourth quarter.  Return to table

2. Actual less potential GDP in the fourth quarter of the year indicated as a percent of potential GDP. A negative number thus indicates that the economy is operating below potential.  Return to table

… Not applicable.


Inflation Projections

(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)
Measure 2007 2008 2009 2010
PCE chain-weighted price index 3.5 1.9 .7 1.0
Previous 3.5 2.8 1.4 1.4
Food and beverages 4.5 6.3 2.0 1.0
Previous 4.5 6.2 2.2 1.4
Energy 19.1 -9.8 -8.1 4.8
Previous 19.1 -1.0 -2.3 3.3
Excluding food and energy 2.2 2.0 1.1 .8
Previous 2.2 2.4 1.5 1.3
Consumer price index 4.0 1.7 .7 1.3
Previous 4.0 2.8 1.5 1.7
Excluding food and energy 2.3 2.1 1.3 1.0
Previous 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.5
GDP chain-weighted price index 2.6 2.6 1.5 .8
Previous 2.6 3.0 1.6 1.3
ECI for compensation of private industry workers1 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.6
Previous 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.5
Compensation per hour, nonfarm business sector 3.6 3.2 2.4 1.6
Previous 3.6 4.0 3.1 2.1
Prices of core goods imports2 3.4 3.9 -2.7 1.3
Previous 3.4 5.5 -.5 1.5

1. December to December.  Return to table

2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas.  Return to table


The Long-Term Outlook

(Percent change, Q4 to Q4, except as noted)
Measure 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP -0.4 -0.9 2.4 5.1 5.7 5.6
Civilian unemployment rate1 6.7 8.1 8.2 6.8 5.4 4.2
PCE prices, total 1.9 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8
Core PCE prices 2.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7
Federal funds rate1 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3

1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period.  Return to table


Alternative Scenarios

(Percent change, annual rate, from end of preceding period except as noted)
Measure and scenario 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-13
H2 H1 H2
Real GDP
Greenbook Extension -2.6 -3.1 1.3 2.4 5.1 5.7
More financial stress -2.6 -4.0 -0.6 0.7 4.4 5.5
Faster recovery -2.6 -3.0 4.8 5.8 5.8 3.0
Bigger fiscal package -2.6 -1.8 1.5 2.6 5.0 5.4
Anchored inflation expectations -2.6 -3.1 1.3 2.5 5.2 5.5
Deflation -2.6 -3.1 1.3 2.4 5.1 5.5
Unemployment rate1
Greenbook Extension 6.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 6.8 4.2
More financial stress 6.7 7.9 8.5 9.2 8.1 5.4
Faster recovery 6.7 7.8 7.7 6.5 4.6 3.9
Bigger fiscal package 6.7 7.6 7.8 7.8 6.5 4.1
Anchored inflation expectations 6.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 6.8 4.2
Deflation 6.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 6.8 4.3
Core PCE inflation
Greenbook Extension 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7
More financial stress 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.2
Faster recovery 1.9 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6
Bigger fiscal package 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
Anchored inflation expectations 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5
Deflation 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.3
Federal funds rate1
Greenbook Extension 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3
More financial stress 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Faster recovery 1.1 0.3 0.3 1.0 4.2 5.4
Bigger fiscal package 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.6
Anchored inflation expectations 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.8
Deflation 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.6

1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period.  Return to table


Selected Greenbook Projections and 70 Percent Confidence Intervals Derived from Historical Greenbook Forecast Errors and FRB/US Simulations

Measure 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP (percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Projection -0.4 -0.9 2.4 5.1 5.7 5.6
Confidence interval
Greenbook forecast errors -.8-.1 -2.4-.6 1.1-3.8
FRB/US stochastic simulations -.7-.1 -2.0-.1 1.1-3.6 3.5-6.3 4.1-7.1 4.0-6.9
Civilian unemployment rate (percent, Q4)
Projection 6.7 8.1 8.2 6.8 5.4 4.2
Confidence interval
Greenbook forecast errors 6.6-6.8 7.5-8.7 7.2-9.2
FRB/US stochastic simulations 6.6-6.8 7.7-8.5 7.7-8.8 6.3-7.6 4.9-6.3 3.6-5.2
PCE prices, total (percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Projection 1.9 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8
Confidence interval
Greenbook forecast errors 1.7-2.1 -.1-1.6 .0-2.1
FRB/US stochastic simulations 1.8-2.0 .1-1.4 .2-1.7 -.1-1.5 -.3-1.5 -.3-1.6
PCE prices excluding food and energy (percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Projection 2.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7
Confidence interval
Greenbook forecast errors 1.8-2.3 .6-1.7 -.2-1.7
FRB/US stochastic simulations 2.0-2.1 .7-1.5 .2-1.3 -.1-1.2 -.3-1.2 -.2-1.4
Federal funds rate (percent, Q4)
Projection 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3
Confidence interval
FRB/US stochastic simulations 1.1-1.1 .3-1.3 .3-1.6 .3-1.7 .3-1.6 .3-2.7

Notes: Intervals derived from Greenbook forecast errors are based on projections made from 1987-2007. Shocks underlying FRB/US stochastic simulations are randomly drawn from the 1987-2007 set of model equation residuals.

… Not applicable. The Greenbook forecast horizon has typically extended about two years.  Return to table


Forecast Confidence Intervals and Alternative Scenarios

Confidence Intervals Based on FRB/US Stochastic Simulations

Figure: Real GDP

4-quarter percent change, 2007-2013. Line chart. Greenbook Extension series begins at about 1.1 percent in early 2007, increases to about 2.8 percent in late 2007, then decreases to about -2.8 in early 2009. It then increases to end at about 5.7%. Faster recovery begins in early 2009 at about -3, increases to about 6 in early 2011, then decreases to end at about 1.7. Anchored inflation expectations begins in late 2010 at about 2.5 then increases to about 6 by late 2012, and ends at about 5. More financial stress starts at about -2 in late 2008, decreases to about -3.5 by mid 2009, then rises to end at about 5.5. Bigger fiscal package starts at about -.7 in late 2008, decreases to about -2.2 by mid 2009, then increases to about 6 by mid 2012, then decreases to end at about 5. Deflation begins at about 5 in mid 2011, increases and ends at about 5.5. There are 70 and 90 percent confidence interval bands shown in the chart. They begin in late 2008, both slightly widening until the end of the chart, By the end, the 90% band is between 3 and 8, and the 70% band is between 4 and 7.

Figure: Unemployment Rate

By Percent, 2007-2013. Line chart. Greenbook Extension series begins at about 4.5 percent in early 2007, increases to about 8.2 percent in late 2010 and decreases to about 4.25 percent at the end. The More financial stress series begins at about 7.5 in late 2008, increases to about 9.25% by early 2011, then decreases to about 5.4% by the end. The Anchored inflation expectations, Bigger fiscal package, and Deflation series all track closely, beginning at about 7.5 in late 2008, increasing slightly, then decreasing to about 4.25 percent by the end. The Faster recovery series begins at about 7.7% in late 2008, then decreases to about 3.7 percent by early 2013, and ends at about 3.8%. The 70 and 90 percent confidence intervals begin in late 2008. By early 2010, the 90 percent interval is between about 7.5 and 9, and the 70 percent interval is between about 7.8 and 8.8. They decrease together until the end, when the 90 percent confidence interval is between about 3.2 and 5.7 and the 70 percent interval is between about 3.7 and 5.2.

Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy

4-quarter percent change. Line chart, 2007-2013. The Greenbook Extension series begins in early 2007 at about 2.3. It fluctuates until late 2008 when it decreases to end at about 0.7. The Deflation and More financial stress series' track closely. The begin at about 1.7 in late 2008 and decreases to end at about -.3. The Anchored inflation expectations and Faster recovery series' track closely. The begin at about 1.1. in late 2008, and increases to end at about 1.5. The Bigger fiscal package series starts at about 1 in 2008 and decreases slightly to end at about .9. There is a 70 percent confidence interval that widens during the period, ending at about -.3 to 1.3. There is a 90 percent confidence interval that widens during the period, ending at about -.8 to 1.8.

Figure: Federal Funds rate

By percent, 2007 to 2013, line chart. The Greenbook extension series begins at about 5.25% in early 2007, decreases to about .25% from early 2009 to late 2012, then rises to about 1.2% by the end. The Faster recovery series starts at about .25%, increasing starting in mid 2010, and ending at about 5.5% by the end of 2013. The Bigger fiscal package and Anchored inflation expectation series' track closesly, starting at .25%, and beginning to increase in mid 2012. They end at about 3.75%. The Deflation series starts at about .25%, begins to increase in early 2013 and ends at about 1.5%. The More financial stress series starts at about .25% and remains there until the end.


Evolution of the Staff Forecast

Figure: Change in Real GDP

January 2007 to December 2008. Line chart. Percent, Q4/Q4. The 2008 series begins at about 2.5 in early 2007, decreases to about 0 in March 2008, increases to about 1.5 in September 2008, then decreases to about -.5 by the end. The 2009 series begins at about 2 in September 2007, increases to about 3 by March 2008, and decreases to end at about -.9 by the end. The 2010 series starts at about 2.7 in September 2008, and decreases to end at about 2.4.

Figure: Unemployment Rate

January 2007 to December 2008. Line chart. Percent, fourth quarter. The 2008 series begins at about 4.9 in January 2007, fluctuates and then increases starting in December 2007 to end at about 6.8. The 2009 series starts in September 2007 at about 5 percent and increases to end at about 8.2 percent. The 2010 series starts in September 2008 at about 5.8% and increases to end at about 8.3.

Figure: Change in PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy

January 2007 to December 2008. Line chart. Percent, Q4/Q4. The 2008 series begins in January 2007 at about 2, and increases to about 2.3 by October 2008, then decreases to end at about 2. The 2009 series begins in September 2007 at about 2, then begins to decreases in mid 2008 and ends at about 1.2. The 2010 series stats in September 2008 at about 1.8 and decreases to end at about .8.


Changes in GDP, Prices, and Unemployment

(Percent, annual rate except as noted)
Interval Nominal GDP Real GDP PCE price index Core PCE price index Unemployment rate1
10/22/08 12/10/08 10/22/08 12/10/08 10/22/08 12/10/08 10/22/08 12/10/08 10/22/08 12/10/08
Quarterly
2008: Q1 3.5 3.5 .9 .9 3.6 3.6 2.3 2.3 4.9 4.9
Q2 4.1 4.1 2.8 2.8 4.3 4.3 2.2 2.2 5.3 5.3
Q3 3.0 3.6 -1.0 -.4 5.6 5.2 3.1 2.6 6.0 6.0
Q4 2.9 -2.4 -1.3 -4.7 -2.2 -5.1 2.3 1.2 6.3 6.7
2009: Q1 .6 -3.0 -1.4 -5.0 .7 -1.8 1.9 1.5 6.6 7.5
Q2 1.2 .4 -.4 -1.2 1.7 2.2 1.6 1.3 6.9 7.8
Q3 1.8 2.4 .4 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 7.1 8.0
Q4 2.3 2.5 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.4 .8 7.2 8.1
2010: Q1 2.7 2.7 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.1 1.4 .8 7.3 8.3
Q2 3.4 3.1 2.0 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.4 .8 7.3 8.3
Q3 3.8 3.4 2.5 2.6 1.4 1.0 1.3 .8 7.3 8.2
Q4 4.3 3.7 3.0 3.0 1.4 .9 1.3 .7 7.2 8.2
Two-quarter2
2008: Q2 3.8 3.8 1.8 1.8 3.9 3.9 2.2 2.2 .5 .5
Q4 3.0 .6 -1.2 -2.6 1.6 -.1 2.7 1.9 1.0 1.4
2009: Q2 .9 -1.3 -.9 -3.1 1.2 .2 1.7 1.4 .6 1.1
Q4 2.1 2.5 .7 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.4 .9 .3 .3
2010: Q2 3.1 2.9 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.4 .8 .1 .2
Q4 4.0 3.6 2.8 2.8 1.4 1.0 1.3 .8 -.1 -.1
Four-quarter3
2007:Q4 4.9 4.9 2.3 2.3 3.5 3.5 2.2 2.2 .4 .4
2008:Q4 3.4 2.2 .3 -.4 2.8 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.5 1.9
2009:Q4 1.5 .6 -.1 -.9 1.4 .7 1.5 1.1 .9 1.4
2010:Q4 3.5 3.2 2.3 2.4 1.4 1.0 1.3 .8 .0 .1
Annual
2007 4.8 4.8 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.2 4.6 4.6
2008 3.8 3.6 1.4 1.2 3.6 3.3 2.3 2.2 5.6 5.7
2009 1.9 .0 -.5 -2.0 1.3 .1 2.0 1.5 7.0 7.9
2010 2.8 2.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.3 .8 7.3 8.2

1. Level, except for two-quarter and four-quarter intervals.  Return to table

2. Percent change from two quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points.  Return to table

3. Percent change from four quarters earlier; for unemployment rate, change is in percentage points.  Return to table


Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items

(Percent, annual rate except as noted)
Item 2008 2009 2010 2008 1 2009 1 2010 1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Real GDP .9 2.8 -.4 -4.7 -5.0 -1.2 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.0 -.4 -.9 2.4
Previous .9 2.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.4 -.4 .4 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 .3 -.1 2.3
Final sales .9 4.4 -1.1 -4.9 -3.5 -1.2 -.8 .1 1.2 2.9 2.9 2.6 -.3 -1.4 2.4
Previous .9 4.4 -.8 -3.5 -1.4 -.4 -.2 .1 1.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 .2 -.5 2.3
Priv. dom. final purch. -.3 .7 -3.9 -6.6 -5.2 -2.2 -.9 .5 2.2 3.1 3.6 3.7 -2.5 -2.0 3.2
Previous -.3 .7 -3.5 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 -.6 .3 1.8 2.7 3.3 3.9 -1.9 -1.1 2.9
Personal cons. expend. .9 1.2 -3.7 -4.3 -1.3 .9 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.0 -1.5 .7 2.7
Previous .9 1.2 -3.3 -2.4 -.1 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 -.9 1.0 2.4
Durables -4.3 -2.8 -15.2 -25.8 -9.7 6.4 3.8 5.0 4.5 7.9 7.1 6.4 -12.5 1.2 6.5
Nondurables -.4 3.9 -6.9 -6.0 -2.1 -1.0 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 -2.5 -.2 2.5
Services 2.4 .7 .0 .6 .3 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.6 .9 1.1 2.3
Residential investment -25.1 -13.3 -15.7 -27.0 -32.5 -10.4 -3.0 9.9 8.6 7.0 11.1 9.1 -20.5 -10.4 8.9
Previous -25.1 -13.3 -19.7 -24.4 -24.8 -17.0 -17.1 -2.8 4.6 14.9 15.1 19.5 -20.8 -15.8 13.4
Business fixed invest. 2.4 2.5 -.6 -14.0 -19.8 -19.6 -15.7 -12.3 -.9 4.6 7.3 8.4 -2.7 -16.9 4.8
Previous 2.4 2.5 .8 -9.9 -12.6 -11.9 -10.6 -8.3 -.5 2.7 6.3 8.2 -1.2 -10.9 4.1
Equipment & software -.6 -5.0 -5.7 -18.2 -18.1 -14.1 -10.1 -7.0 5.3 12.4 14.7 15.1 -7.6 -12.4 11.8
Previous -.6 -5.0 -2.0 -11.1 -11.4 -8.4 -6.8 -4.0 6.0 9.0 12.1 14.0 -4.7 -7.7 10.2
Nonres. structures 8.6 18.5 9.5 -6.1 -22.7 -28.4 -25.0 -21.4 -12.0 -10.0 -7.0 -5.3 7.2 -24.4 -8.6
Previous 8.6 18.5 6.0 -7.7 -14.6 -17.8 -17.3 -16.0 -12.0 -9.1 -5.1 -3.5 5.9 -16.4 -7.5
Net exports2 -462 -381 -352 -343 -316 -311 -324 -344 -372 -372 -380 -397 -385 -324 -380
Previous2 -462 -381 -346 -335 -317 -303 -299 -307 -326 -313 -312 -326 -381 -307 -319
Exports 5.1 12.3 3.4 -4.1 -2.2 -3.2 -.7 .9 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.0 -1.3 2.6
Imports -.8 -7.3 -3.2 -5.2 -7.4 -3.7 2.2 5.2 7.7 1.8 3.9 6.5 -4.2 -1.0 4.9
Govt. cons. & invest. 1.9 3.9 5.8 1.2 -.4 2.1 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.6 .6 .6 3.2 1.2 1.2
Previous 1.9 3.9 4.8 -1.0 1.4 1.0 .7 .6 .9 .9 .1 .1 2.4 .9 .5
Federal 5.8 6.6 13.6 3.8 .6 3.6 2.6 3.8 4.0 3.3 .7 .7 7.4 2.6 2.2
Defense 7.3 7.3 18.0 5.9 .1 4.4 2.9 3.2 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 9.5 2.6 1.9
Nondefense 2.9 5.0 4.5 -.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 5.2 8.7 6.3 -2.0 -2.0 2.9 2.7 2.7
State & local -.3 2.5 1.4 -.4 -1.0 1.2 .7 .7 .6 .6 .6 .6 .8 .4 .6
Change in bus. inventories2 -10 -51 -33 -29 -73 -73 -19 22 42 23 16 28 -31 -36 27
Previous2 -10 -51 -57 1 2 2 18 43 56 35 30 38 -29 16 40
Nonfarm2 -18 -55 -33 -30 -73 -72 -20 21 40 22 15 26 -34 -36 26
Farm2 6 2 -0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated.  Return to table

2. Billions of chained (2000) dollars.  Return to table


Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Items

(Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted)
Item 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Real GDP 1.9 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 -.4 -.9 2.4
Previous 1.9 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 .3 -.1 2.3
Final sales .8 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 -.3 -1.4 2.4
Previous .8 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.5 .2 -.5 2.3
Priv. dom. final purch. 1.1 4.1 4.3 3.1 2.3 1.4 -2.5 -2.0 3.2
Previous 1.1 4.1 4.3 3.1 2.3 1.4 -1.9 -1.1 2.9
Personal cons. expend. 1.9 3.4 3.7 2.6 3.2 2.2 -1.5 .7 2.7
Previous 1.9 3.4 3.7 2.6 3.2 2.2 -.9 1.0 2.4
Durables 1.2 8.3 5.6 1.2 6.9 4.2 -12.5 1.2 6.5
Nondurables 2.1 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.2 1.7 -2.5 -.2 2.5
Services 1.9 2.2 3.3 2.4 2.6 2.1 .9 1.1 2.3
Residential investment 7.0 11.7 6.7 5.4 -15.5 -19.0 -20.5 -10.4 8.9
Previous 7.0 11.7 6.7 5.4 -15.5 -19.0 -20.8 -15.8 13.4
Business fixed invest. -6.5 4.9 7.5 4.9 6.5 6.4 -2.7 -16.9 4.8
Previous -6.5 4.9 7.5 4.9 6.5 6.4 -1.2 -10.9 4.1
Equipment & software -3.4 6.6 9.4 7.0 4.2 2.8 -7.6 -12.4 11.8
Previous -3.4 6.6 9.4 7.0 4.2 2.8 -4.7 -7.7 10.2
Nonres. structures -14.9 .2 2.3 -.5 12.8 14.5 7.2 -24.4 -8.6
Previous -14.9 .2 2.3 -.5 12.8 14.5 5.9 -16.4 -7.5
Net exports1 -471 -519 -594 -617 -616 -547 -385 -324 -380
Previous1 -471 -519 -594 -617 -616 -547 -381 -307 -319
Exports 3.8 5.8 7.4 7.0 10.1 8.9 4.0 -1.3 2.6
Imports 9.7 4.8 11.5 4.8 3.8 1.1 -4.2 -1.0 4.9
Govt. cons. & invest. 4.0 1.7 .7 .6 2.1 2.4 3.2 1.2 1.2
Previous 4.0 1.7 .7 .6 2.1 2.4 2.4 .9 .5
Federal 7.8 5.5 2.4 1.0 2.9 2.3 7.4 2.6 2.2
Defense 8.4 7.5 2.5 .8 4.1 2.7 9.5 2.6 1.9
Nondefense 6.8 1.9 2.3 1.4 .5 1.5 2.9 2.7 2.7
State & local 2.1 -.4 -.4 .3 1.6 2.4 .8 .4 .6
Change in bus. inventories1 12 14 54 39 42 -2 -31 -36 27
Previous1 12 14 54 39 42 -2 -29 16 40
Nonfarm1 15 14 48 39 46 -4 -34 -36 26
Farm1 -2 0 6 0 -3 1 2 1 1

1. Billions of chained (2000) dollars.  Return to table


Contributions to Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product

(Percentage points, annual rate except as noted)
Item 2008 2009 2010 2008 1 2009 1 2010 1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Real GDP .9 2.8 -.4 -4.7 -5.0 -1.2 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.0 -.4 -.9 2.4
Previous .9 2.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.4 -.4 .4 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 .3 -.1 2.3
Final sales .9 4.3 -1.1 -5.0 -3.4 -1.2 -.8 .1 1.2 2.9 2.9 2.6 -.3 -1.4 2.4
Previous .9 4.3 -.8 -3.5 -1.4 -.4 -.2 .1 1.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 .2 -.5 2.3
Priv. dom. final purch. -.3 .6 -3.3 -5.6 -4.3 -1.8 -.7 .4 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.0 -2.2 -1.6 2.6
Previous -.3 .6 -3.0 -3.8 -2.3 -1.1 -.5 .3 1.5 2.2 2.7 3.2 -1.6 -.9 2.4
Personal cons. expend. .6 .9 -2.7 -3.0 -.9 .6 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 -1.1 .5 1.9
Previous .6 .9 -2.3 -1.7 -.1 .7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.0 -.7 .7 1.7
Durables -.3 -.2 -1.2 -2.0 -.6 .4 .2 .3 .3 .5 .4 .4 -.9 .1 .4
Nondurables -.1 .8 -1.5 -1.3 -.4 -.2 .2 .3 .4 .5 .5 .5 -.5 .0 .5
Services 1.0 .3 .0 .3 .2 .4 .6 .8 .9 1.0 1.1 1.1 .4 .5 1.0
Residential investment -1.1 -.5 -.6 -1.0 -1.1 -.3 -.1 .3 .2 .2 .3 .2 -.8 -.3 .2
Previous -1.1 -.5 -.8 -.9 -.8 -.5 -.5 -.1 .1 .4 .4 .5 -.8 -.5 .3
Business fixed invest. .3 .3 -.1 -1.6 -2.3 -2.2 -1.6 -1.2 -.1 .4 .6 .7 -.3 -1.8 .4
Previous .3 .3 .1 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -.8 .0 .3 .6 .8 -.1 -1.2 .4
Equipment & software .0 -.4 -.4 -1.4 -1.3 -1.0 -.7 -.4 .3 .7 .8 .9 -.6 -.8 .7
Previous .0 -.4 -.1 -.8 -.8 -.6 -.4 -.3 .4 .5 .7 .9 -.3 -.5 .6
Nonres. structures .3 .6 .4 -.2 -1.0 -1.2 -1.0 -.8 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .3 -1.0 -.3
Previous .3 .6 .2 -.3 -.6 -.7 -.7 -.6 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .2 -.6 -.2
Net exports .8 2.9 1.1 .4 .9 .1 -.4 -.7 -.9 .0 -.2 -.6 1.2 .0 -.4
Previous .8 2.9 1.2 .4 .6 .5 .2 -.3 -.7 .4 .0 -.5 1.3 .2 -.2
Exports .6 1.5 .5 -.6 -.3 -.4 -.1 .1 .2 .3 .4 .4 .5 -.2 .3
Imports .1 1.4 .6 .9 1.2 .6 -.3 -.8 -1.2 -.3 -.6 -1.0 .7 .2 -.8
Govt. cons. & invest. .4 .8 1.1 .3 -.1 .4 .3 .4 .4 .3 .1 .1 .6 .3 .2
Previous .4 .8 1.0 -.2 .3 .2 .1 .1 .2 .2 .0 .0 .5 .2 .1
Federal .4 .5 1.0 .3 .1 .3 .2 .3 .3 .3 .1 .1 .5 .2 .2
Defense .3 .4 .9 .3 .0 .2 .2 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .5 .1 .1
Nondefense .1 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .1 .2 .2 .0 .0 .1 .1 .1
State & local .0 .3 .2 .0 -.1 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .0 .1
Change in bus. inventories .0 -1.5 .7 .3 -1.6 .0 1.9 1.4 .7 -.6 -.2 .4 -.1 .4 .0
Previous .0 -1.5 -.2 2.2 .0 .0 .6 .9 .5 -.8 -.2 .3 .1 .4 .0
Nonfarm .2 -1.4 .8 .1 -1.5 .0 1.9 1.5 .7 -.6 -.2 .4 -.1 .5 .0
Farm -.2 -.1 -.1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated.  Return to table


Changes in Prices and Costs

(Percent, annual rate except as noted)
Item 2008 2009 2010 2008 1 2009 1 2010 1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP chain-wt. price index 2.6 1.1 4.1 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.4 .9 .8 .9 .8 .7 2.6 1.5 .8
Previous 2.6 1.1 4.1 4.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 3.0 1.6 1.3
PCE chain-wt. price index 3.6 4.3 5.2 -5.1 -1.8 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 .9 1.9 .7 1.0
Previous 3.6 4.3 5.6 -2.2 .7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.8 1.4 1.4
Energy 19.0 27.4 31.6 -66.8 -48.3 19.2 8.7 6.2 6.3 5.2 4.2 3.6 -9.8 -8.1 4.8
Previous 19.0 27.4 31.7 -51.9 -17.6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.9 -1.0 -2.3 3.3
Food 4.9 6.4 8.5 5.3 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.0 .9 .9 .9 6.3 2.0 1.0
Previous 4.9 6.4 8.5 5.2 2.5 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 6.2 2.2 1.4
Ex. food & energy 2.3 2.2 2.6 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 2.0 1.1 .8
Previous 2.3 2.2 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.4 1.5 1.3
CPI 4.3 5.0 6.7 -8.5 -3.2 2.6 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.7 .7 1.3
Previous 4.3 5.0 6.7 -4.5 .3 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.8 1.5 1.7
Ex. food & energy 2.5 1.9 3.2 .8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 .9 2.1 1.3 1.0
Previous 2.5 1.9 3.2 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.4 1.7 1.5
ECI, hourly compensation2 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.5 2.0 1.6
Previous2 3.0 2.3 3.1 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.9 2.3 1.5
Nonfarm business sector
Output per hour 2.6 3.6 1.4 .4 -2.5 .2 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.0 .8 2.4
Previous 2.6 3.6 -.3 .8 1.4 1.2 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.7 2.2
Compensation per hour 3.8 .9 4.1 4.2 2.2 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 3.2 2.4 1.6
Previous 3.8 3.7 4.5 3.9 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 4.0 3.1 2.1
Unit labor costs 1.2 -2.6 2.6 3.8 4.8 2.5 -.2 -.7 -.9 -.8 -.6 -.8 1.2 1.6 -.8
Previous 1.2 .1 4.8 3.0 1.9 2.0 .7 .9 -.1 .2 .0 -.5 2.2 1.4 -.1
Core goods imports chain-wt price index3 8.5 10.6 4.6 -7.0 -8.5 -2.4 -.7 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 3.9 -2.7 1.3
Previous3 8.5 10.6 6.5 -2.9 -4.5 .2 .7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 5.5 -.5 1.5

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated.  Return to table

2. Private-industry workers.  Return to table

3. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas.  Return to table


Changes in Prices and Costs

(Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted)
Item 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP chain-wt. price index 1.7 2.2 3.2 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 1.5 .8
Previous 1.7 2.2 3.2 3.5 2.8 2.6 3.0 1.6 1.3
PCE chain-wt. price index 1.8 1.9 3.1 3.3 1.9 3.5 1.9 .7 1.0
Previous 1.8 1.9 3.1 3.3 1.9 3.5 2.8 1.4 1.4
Energy 7.7 7.6 18.3 23.1 -4.0 19.1 -9.8 -8.1 4.8
Previous 7.7 7.6 18.3 23.1 -4.0 19.1 -1.0 -2.3 3.3
Food 1.3 2.6 2.9 2.1 2.3 4.5 6.3 2.0 1.0
Previous 1.3 2.6 2.9 2.1 2.3 4.5 6.2 2.2 1.4
Ex. food & energy 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.1 .8
Previous 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.4 1.5 1.3
CPI 2.3 2.0 3.4 3.8 1.9 4.0 1.7 .7 1.3
Previous 2.3 2.0 3.4 3.8 1.9 4.0 2.8 1.5 1.7
Ex. food & energy 2.1 1.2 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.3 1.0
Previous 2.1 1.2 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.5
ECI, hourly compensation1 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.6
Previous1 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.3 1.5
Nonfarm business sector
Output per hour 2.9 4.7 1.8 1.5 .6 2.7 2.0 .8 2.4
Previous 2.9 4.7 1.8 1.5 .6 2.7 1.7 1.7 2.2
Compensation per hour 3.2 5.3 3.9 3.6 4.3 3.6 3.2 2.4 1.6
Previous 3.2 5.3 3.9 3.6 4.3 3.6 4.0 3.1 2.1
Unit labor costs .2 .5 2.1 2.1 3.6 .9 1.2 1.6 -.8
Previous .2 .5 2.1 2.1 3.6 .9 2.2 1.4 -.1
Core goods imports chain-wt. price index2 .1 1.6 3.6 2.2 2.4 3.4 3.9 -2.7 1.3
Previous2 .1 1.6 3.6 2.2 2.4 3.4 5.5 -.5 1.5

1. Private-industry workers.  Return to table

2. Core goods imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil and natural gas.  Return to table


Other Macroeconomic Indicators

Item 2008 2009 2010 2008 1 2009 1 2010 1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Employment and production
Nonfarm payroll employment2 -.1 -.2 -.4 -1.2 -1.4 -.4 -.2 -.1 -.1 .3 .0 .2 -1.9 -2.1 .5
Unemployment rate3 4.9 5.3 6.0 6.7 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 6.7 8.1 8.2
Previous3 4.9 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 6.3 7.2 7.2
GDP gap4 -.7 -.6 -1.3 -3.1 -4.8 -5.6 -5.9 -6.0 -6.1 -6.1 -6.0 -5.8 -3.1 -6.0 -5.8
Previous4 -.6 -.5 -1.4 -2.3 -3.2 -3.9 -4.3 -4.7 -4.9 -4.9 -4.9 -4.7 -2.3 -4.7 -4.7
  
Industrial production5 .4 -3.4 -7.6 -9.1 -6.5 -1.0 .2 1.4 1.6 2.1 3.3 3.3 -5.0 -1.5 2.6
Previous5 .4 -3.1 -6.0 -.6 -.1 -.1 1.4 2.5 1.7 2.7 3.1 3.3 -2.4 .9 2.7
Manufacturing industr. prod.5 -1.0 -4.0 -7.8 -13.2 -8.5 .0 1.0 1.2 1.1 2.0 3.4 3.5 -6.6 -1.7 2.5
Previous5 -1.0 -3.8 -5.8 -4.8 -2.6 -.4 .9 1.9 2.2 3.2 3.5 3.9 -3.8 -.1 3.2
Capacity utilization rate - mfg.3 78.7 77.5 75.7 72.8 71.2 71.2 71.3 71.6 71.8 72.3 73.0 73.7 72.8 71.6 73.7
Previous3 78.7 77.6 76.1 74.9 74.3 74.1 74.1 74.4 74.7 75.1 75.7 76.3 74.9 74.4 76.3
  
Housing starts6 1.1 1.0 .9 .7 .7 .7 .8 .8 .9 .9 1.0 1.0 .9 .7 .9
Light motor vehicle sales6 15.2 14.1 12.9 10.3 10.5 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.2 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.1 11.3 13.0
Income and saving
Nominal GDP5 3.5 4.1 3.6 -2.4 -3.0 .4 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.7 2.2 .6 3.2
Real disposable pers. income5 -.7 10.7 -9.2 5.7 8.1 .9 -.5 1.1 1.9 1.5 2.0 2.3 1.3 2.4 1.9
Previous5 -.7 11.9 -8.4 -.2 3.7 .3 .1 1.2 1.7 .9 2.7 2.4 .4 1.3 1.9
Personal saving rate3 .2 2.5 1.1 3.4 5.7 5.8 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 3.4 5.3 4.8
Previous3 .2 2.7 1.5 2.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.6
  
Corporate profits7 -4.3 -14.3 -3.0 -22.0 -21.9 -1.6 1.4 6.3 4.2 7.0 8.8 6.7 -11.2 -4.6 6.7
Profit share of GNP3 11.2 10.6 10.5 9.9 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.9 9.4 9.7
  
Net federal saving8 -331 -650 -544 -555 -707 -796 -822 -830 -876 -869 -892 -893 -520 -789 -882
Net state & local saving8 -52 -67 -102 -103 -92 -97 -101 -95 -90 -89 -83 -77 -81 -96 -85
  
Gross national saving rate3 12.4 11.3 11.4 12.7 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 12.7 11.6 11.3
Net national saving rate3 .0 -1.3 -2.0 -.3 -.7 -1.5 -1.9 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.4 -2.4 -.3 -2.1 -2.4

1. Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise indicated.  Return to table

2. Change, millions.  Return to table

3. Percent, annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  Return to table

4. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Annual values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  Return to table

5. Percent change, annual rate.  Return to table

6. Level, millions, annual values are annual averages.  Return to table

7. Percent change, annual rate, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.  Return to table

8. Billions of dollars, annual values are annual averages.  Return to table


Other Macroeconomic Indicators

(Change from fourth quarter of previous year to fourth quarter of year indicated, unless otherwise noted)
Item 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Employment and production
Nonfarm payroll employment1 -.7 -.1 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.2 -1.9 -2.1 .5
Unemployment rate2 5.8 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 6.7 8.1 8.2
Previous2 5.8 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 6.3 7.2 7.2
GDP gap3 -2.5 -1.7 -.7 -.2 -.1 -.3 -3.1 -6.0 -5.8
Previous3 -2.4 -1.6 -.6 -.1 .0 -.2 -2.3 -4.7 -4.7
  
Industrial production4 2.6 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.7 2.1 -5.0 -1.5 2.6
Previous4 2.6 1.5 3.1 2.6 1.7 2.1 -2.4 .9 2.7
Manufacturing industr. prod.4 2.6 1.7 3.7 3.7 1.1 2.3 -6.6 -1.7 2.5
Previous4 2.6 1.7 3.7 3.7 1.1 2.3 -3.8 -.1 3.2
Capacity utilization rate - mfg.2 73.2 74.8 77.5 79.2 79.0 79.3 72.8 71.6 73.7
Previous2 73.2 74.8 77.5 79.2 79.0 79.3 74.9 74.4 76.3
  
Housing starts5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.4 .9 .7 .9
Light motor vehicle sales5 16.7 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.5 16.1 13.1 11.3 13.0
Income and saving
Nominal GDP4 3.6 5.9 6.5 6.3 5.3 4.9 2.2 .6 3.2
Real disposable pers. income4 2.9 3.7 4.1 .9 3.6 1.8 1.3 2.4 1.9
Previous4 2.9 3.7 4.1 .9 3.6 1.8 .4 1.3 1.9
Personal saving rate2 1.8 2.2 2.5 .8 .9 .4 3.4 5.3 4.8
Previous2 1.8 2.2 2.5 .8 .9 .4 2.1 2.8 2.6
  
Corporate profits6 20.6 12.6 20.3 18.8 6.9 -2.0 -11.2 -4.6 6.7
Profit share of GNP2 9.0 9.5 10.8 12.0 12.2 11.3 9.9 9.4 9.7
  
Net federal saving7 -248 -372 -371 -292 -201 -229 -520 -789 -882
Net state & local saving7 -34 -20 2 29 46 10 -81 -96 -85
  
Gross national saving rate2 13.6 13.7 13.8 15.0 15.5 13.4 12.7 11.6 11.3
Net national saving rate2 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.8 3.4 1.2 -.3 -2.1 -2.4

1. Change, millions.  Return to table

2. Percent, values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  Return to table

3. Percent difference between actual and potential GDP; a negative number indicates that the economy is operating below potential. Values are for the fourth quarter of the year indicated.  Return to table

4. Percent change.  Return to table

5. Level, millions, values are annual averages.  Return to table

6. Percent change, with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.  Return to table

7. Billions of dollars, values are annual averages.  Return to table


Staff Projections of Federal Sector Accounts and Related Items

(Billions of dollars except as noted)
Item Fiscal year 2008 2009 2010
2007a 2008a 2009 2010 Q1a Q2a Q3a Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Unified budget Not seasonally adjusted
Receipts1 2568 2524 2377 2429 540 788 590 559 484 742 591 565 517 743 604 586
Outlays1 2729 2978 4053 3272 746 761 759 1062 1051 1057 882 825 829 819 799 865
Surplus/deficit1 -162 -455 -1675 -842 -206 27 -169 -503 -567 -315 -291 -260 -312 -76 -195 -278
Previous -162 -455 -853 -587 -206 27 -169 -456 -277 9 -128 -212 -258 11 -128 -218
On-budget -343 -638 -1832 -992 -237 -64 -171 -569 -577 -400 -287 -317 -322 -162 -192 -338
Off-budget 181 183 157 150 31 91 2 66 10 85 -4 57 10 86 -3 59
Means of financing
Borrowing 206 768 1461 860 200 -48 526 529 343 281 307 249 302 100 210 268
Cash decrease -23 -296 322 0 11 -7 -318 32 264 30 -5 15 15 -20 -10 15
Other2 -22 -17 -108 -18 -5 29 -39 -59 -41 4 -12 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5
Cash operating balance, end of period 75 372 50 50 46 53 372 339 75 45 50 35 20 40 50 35
NIPA federal sector Seasonally adjusted annual rates
Receipts 2624 2606 2528 2569 2673 2479 2595 2583 2512 2493 2525 2552 2554 2573 2598 2623
Expenditures 2832 3047 3248 3436 3003 3128 3140 3137 3219 3289 3347 3382 3430 3442 3490 3517
Consumption expenditures 842 910 980 1032 898 918 954 962 974 987 998 1011 1029 1042 1048 1053
Defense 569 624 677 707 614 629 660 666 671 681 689 696 704 710 717 723
Nondefense 273 286 303 326 284 289 294 295 302 306 309 315 325 332 331 330
Other spending 1990 2136 2268 2404 2105 2210 2186 2176 2245 2302 2349 2371 2401 2400 2442 2464
Current account surplus -209 -440 -720 -867 -331 -650 -545 -555 -707 -796 -822 -830 -876 -869 -892 -893
Gross investment 123 134 146 151 129 138 144 145 144 146 148 149 150 151 153 154
Gross saving less gross investment3 -221 -458 -742 -888 -344 -671 -569 -579 -728 -818 -843 -852 -897 -889 -912 -913
Fiscal indicators4
High-employment (HEB) surplus/deficit -225 -430 -527 -572 -325 -646 -507 -450 -532 -570 -556 -542 -584 -570 -593 -599
Change in HEB, percent of potential GDP -0.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 2.2 -1.0 -0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0
Fiscal impetus (FI), percent of GDP 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Previous 0.2 0.7 -0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

1. Budget receipts, outlays, and surplus/deficit include corresponding social security (OASDI) categories. The OASDI surplus and the Postal Service surplus are excluded from the on-budget surplus and shown separately as off-budget, as classified under current law.  Return to table

2. Other means of financing are checks issued less checks paid, accrued items, and changes in other financial assets and liabilities.  Return to table

3. Gross saving is the current account surplus plus consumption of fixed capital of the general government as well as government enterprises.  Return to table

4. HEB is gross saving less gross investment (NIPA) of the federal government in current dollars, with cyclically sensitive receipts and outlays adjusted to the staff's measure of potential output and the NAIRU. Quarterly figures for change in HEB and FI are not at annual rates. The sign on Change in HEB, as a percent of nominal potential GDP, is reversed. FI is the weighted difference of discretionary changes in federal spending and taxes in chained (2000) dollars, scaled by real GDP. The annual FI estimates are on a calendar year basis. Also, for FI and the change in HEB, positive values indicate aggregate demand stimulus.  Return to table

a--Actual  Return to table


Change in Debt of the Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors

(Percent)
Period1 Total Households Business State and local governments Federal government Memo: Nominal GDP
Total Home mortgages Consumer credit
Year
2003 8.1 11.6 14.2 5.2 2.5 8.3 10.9 5.9
2004 8.9 11.1 13.6 5.5 6.2 7.4 9.0 6.5
2005 9.5 11.0 13.2 4.3 8.7 10.2 7.0 6.3
2006 9.0 10.2 11.2 4.5 10.5 8.1 3.9 5.3
   
2007 8.6 6.8 6.8 5.5 13.1 9.3 4.9 4.9
2008 5.6 .1 -.7 1.7 4.9 2.2 23.6 2.2
2009 4.4 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3 2.6 5.9 18.7 .6
2010 4.3 1.1 .3 3.1 3.0 6.0 11.7 3.2
Quarter
2008: 1 5.3 3.2 2.6 4.7 7.2 3.4 8.1 3.5
2 3.1 .6 -.1 3.9 5.6 .8 5.9 4.1
3 7.2 -.8 -2.4 1.2 2.9 2.9 39.2 3.6
4 6.3 -2.5 -2.8 -2.8 3.4 1.6 34.9 -2.4
2009: 1 3.3 -1.9 -1.8 -3.4 2.4 5.1 15.6 -3.0
2 5.5 -1.2 -1.4 -1.8 2.5 5.4 24.8 .4
3 4.6 -.7 -.9 -.7 2.7 6.3 17.2 2.4
4 3.8 -.3 -.7 .5 2.7 6.2 12.5 2.5
2010: 1 3.8 .2 -.5 1.5 3.0 6.0 10.9 2.7
2 4.2 .7 .0 2.8 3.1 5.9 11.7 3.1
3 4.1 1.3 .5 3.7 2.8 5.8 10.2 3.4
4 4.9 2.1 1.4 4.5 3.0 5.7 12.1 3.7

Note. Quarterly data are at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

1. Data after 2008:Q3 are staff projections. Changes are measured from end of the preceding period to end of period indicated except for annual nominal GDP growth, which is calculated from Q4 to Q4.  Return to table

2.6.3 FOF


Flow of Funds Projections: Highlights

(Billions of dollars at seasonally adjusted annual rates except as noted)
Category 2007 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Domestic nonfinancial sectors
Net funds raised
Total 1692.2 1373.3 1211.8 1269.1 1934.5 1630.0 832.0 1605.8 1325.9 1083.6 1086.9 1258.4 1208.7 1522.2
Net equity issuance -831.2 -410.5 -255.0 -240.0 -413.6 -460.0 -280.0 -260.0 -240.0 -240.0 -240.0 -240.0 -240.0 -240.0
Net debt issuance 2523.4 1783.8 1466.8 1509.1 2348.1 2090.0 1112.0 1865.8 1565.9 1323.6 1326.9 1498.4 1448.7 1762.2
Borrowing indicators
Debt (percent of GDP)1 220.6 228.0 239.3 243.1 226.6 231.9 236.4 238.8 240.3 241.4 242.0 242.6 243.1 243.5
Borrowing (percent of GDP) 18.3 12.5 10.3 10.3 16.3 14.6 7.8 13.1 10.9 9.2 9.1 10.2 9.8 11.8
Households
Net borrowing2 876.3 11.5 -137.3 147.3 -117.4 -349.9 -257.4 -166.4 -90.2 -35.4 21.5 102.3 173.8 291.7
Home mortgages 674.5 -73.6 -124.2 35.5 -258.9 -300.0 -189.3 -142.0 -94.6 -71.0 -47.3 0.0 47.3 142.0
Consumer credit 133.6 44.6 -35.0 80.3 30.5 -72.0 -89.3 -45.6 -17.7 12.6 38.0 71.3 95.0 116.7
Debt/DPI (percent)3 131.5 129.8 125.7 122.6 130.4 129.8 127.1 125.7 125.1 124.2 123.3 122.7 122.1 121.6
Business
Financing gap4 185.6 181.2 73.3 78.7 134.5 103.0 93.0 54.1 63.2 82.8 98.1 72.9 62.7 81.0
Net equity issuance -831.2 -410.5 -255.0 -240.0 -413.6 -460.0 -280.0 -260.0 -240.0 -240.0 -240.0 -240.0 -240.0 -240.0
Credit market borrowing 1224.2 516.2 291.6 341.0 321.7 375.6 270.4 282.8 308.0 305.2 345.6 350.3 322.4 345.6
State and local governments
Net borrowing 185.9 48.4 131.6 141.6 65.3 35.0 113.6 121.6 145.6 145.6 141.6 141.6 141.6 141.6
Current surplus5 246.6 146.7 119.3 136.7 109.6 107.3 120.9 118.0 115.7 122.6 129.0 131.5 139.8 146.7
Federal government
Net borrowing 237.1 1207.7 1181.0 879.1 2078.5 2029.3 985.4 1627.8 1202.4 908.2 818.2 904.2 810.9 983.2
Net borrowing (n.s.a.) 237.1 1207.7 1181.0 879.1 526.5 529.4 343.4 280.9 307.5 249.1 301.6 100.0 209.6 267.9
Unified deficit (n.s.a.) 187.9 851.0 1431.9 861.1 168.9 503.0 566.9 314.7 290.6 259.6 312.1 75.5 195.1 278.4
Depository institutions
Funds supplied 851.7 184.2 265.8 460.4 -43.3 -188.1 261.5 81.0 341.0 379.6 468.7 618.8 460.9 293.1

Note. Data after 2008:Q3 are staff projections.

1. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by nominal GDP.  Return to table

2. Includes change in liabilities not shown in home mortgages and consumer credit.  Return to table

3. Average debt levels in the period (computed as the average of period-end debt positions) divided by disposable personal income.  Return to table

4. For corporations, excess of capital expenditures over U.S. internal funds.  Return to table

5. NIPA state and local government saving plus consumption of fixed capital and net capital transfers.  Return to table

n.s.a. Not seasonally adjusted.  Return to table

2.6.4 FOF


† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014