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December 2008 Greenbook Supplement Tables and Charts


Supplemental Notes

The Domestic Nonfinancial Economy

Retail Sales

(Percent change; seasonally adjusted)
Share1 2008 2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Sept. Oct. Nov.
Total retail trade and food services 100.0 -.3 .9 -1.3 -1.6 -2.9 -1.8
Previous estimate       -1.2 -1.3 -2.8  
Auto and other motor vehicle dealers 14.5 -3.9 -6.1 -7.9 -6.5 -6.1 -3.3
Building material and supply stores 7.5 -2.5 3.0 -.9 -.7 -1.0 -1.2
Retail control 78.0 .8 2.4 .1 -.6 -2.5 -1.5
Previous estimate       .1 -.5 -2.3  
General merchandise 14.1 .6 2.4 .0 -.7 -.4 1.2
Food and beverage stores 14.0 1.1 1.7 1.2 -.3 -.3 .3
Food services 10.8 .1 1.8 .7 .2 -.4 .2
Gasoline stations 9.2 4.0 5.1 1.1 -.1 -12.9 -14.7
Nonstore retailers2 7.2 .0 4.2 -1.2 -.8 -1.7 -1.3
Health & personal care 5.9 1.2 1.3 .8 .6 .1 1.0
Clothing and accessories 5.1 .1 1.1 -1.3 -4.1 -2.0 .8
Furniture and home furnishing 2.5 -2.7 -.7 -4.4 -2.0 -1.0 .2
Electronics and appliances 2.6 -1.2 2.3 -2.8 -.9 -2.0 2.8
Auto parts, acc. and tire stores 1.9 -1.2 2.2 -.3 .6 .2 1.2
Other retailers3 4.9 -.1 1.3 .2 -1.1 -.3 .7
Other aggregates of retail sales:
Total excluding motor vehicles and parts 83.6 .5 2.5 .0 -.7 -2.4 -1.6
Retail control ex. gasoline station sales 68.8 .3 1.9 -.1 -.7 -.7 .5
Previous estimate       .0 -.6 -.5  
Memo: Real PCE control 4   -.1 1.2 -1.9 -1.0 -1.0 n.a.
Previous estimate       -1.9 -.9 -.8  

1. Share of total retail trade and food services for November.  Return to table

2. Includes electronic shopping and mail order houses, direct selling establishments, and vending machine operators.  Return to table

3. Includes miscellaneous retailers and sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores.  Return to table

4. PCE control is a BEA measure and has approximately the same coverage as retail control. Revisions to real PCE control are a staff translation based on the revisions to retail control.  Return to table

Source: Census Bureau.


Figure: Nominal Retail Control and Real PCE Control

By Percent change, 2004 to 2008. Line chart. There are two series, "Nominal retail control" and "Real PCE control". Nominal retail control starts at about 1.3 and fluctuates widely between about -0.7 and 2.2, until late 2008. It then decreases to about -2.5 and increases to end at about -1.5 in November 2008. Real PCE control starts at about 0.5 and fluctuates widely between about -1 and 1.6. It ends at about -1 in October 2008.

Note. Real PCE control estimates for September and October 2008 are a staff translation based on the revisions to retail control.

Source: Census Bureau.


Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers

Indexes of consumer sentiment
(Not seasonally adjusted)
Category 2008
May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.P
Composite of current and expected conditions1 59.8 56.4 61.2 63.0 70.3 57.6 55.3 59.1
Current conditions1 73.3 67.6 73.1 71.0 75.0 58.4 57.5 69.4
Expected conditions1 51.1 49.2 53.5 57.9 67.2 57.0 53.9 52.4
Personal financial situation
Now compared with 12 months ago2 80 69 73 72 86 60 59 61
Expected in 12 months2 98 96 105 105 120 106 107 108
Expected business conditions
Next 12 months2 36 38 42 52 65 49 42 37
Next 5 years2 68 59 65 72 83 71 65 63
Appraisal of buying conditions
Cars 96 91 103 103 108 98 115 122
Large household appliances2 109 104 115 110 107 89 88 117
Houses 130 133 138 146 140 117 145 128
  
Expected unemployment change - next 12 months 153 159 154 150 141 156 162 164
  
Prob. household will lose a job - next 5 years 22 25 20 22 21 24 27 26
Expected inflation - next 12 months
Mean 7.0 6.5 6.3 5.3 4.6 4.3 2.9 1.9
Median 5.2 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.3 3.9 2.9 1.7
Expected inflation - next 5 to 10 years
Mean 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.7
Median 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7

Note. Figures on financial, business, and buying conditions are the percent reporting 'good times' (or 'better') minus the percent reporting 'bad times' (or 'worse'), plus 100. Expected change in unemployment is the fraction expecting unemployment to rise minus the fraction expecting unemployment to fall, plus 100.

P Preliminary.  Return to table

1. Feb. 1966 = 100.  Return to table

2. Indicates the question is one of the five equally-weighted components of the index of sentiment.  Return to table


Figure: Consumer sentiment

2001 to 2008. Line chart. There are two series, "Reuters/Michigan" and "Conference Board". The Reuters series values are indexed to 1966=100. It begins at about 99, fluctuates between about 75 and 105 until early 2008, then decreases to end in December 2008 at about 58. The Conference Board series is indexed to 1985=100. It starts at about 125, decreases to about 60 by early 2003, increases to about 85 by late 2007, and decreases to end at about 40 in November 2008. Note: Reuters December 2008 value is preliminary.

Figure: Expected inflation (Reuters/University of Michigan)

By Percent, 2001 to December 2008. Line chart. There are two series, "Median, 5 to 10 years ahead", and "Median, 12 months ahead". The 5 to 10 years ahead series starts at about 3, and remains about constant, decreasing toward the end to about 2.8. The December value is preliminary. The 12 months ahead series starts at about 3, decreases to about 0.5 in late 2001, increases to about 4.6 in early 2006, decreases to about 3 by late 2007, increases to about 5 by early 2008, then decreases to end at about 1.8.


Change in Business Inventories

(Book value, billions of dollars at annual rate)
Industry 2007 2008 2008
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 July Aug. Sept. Oct.
Manufacturing and trade 60.9 94.5 93.6 57.5 202.6 34.8 -64.9 -99.6
Previous 58.1 -63.2
Ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles & parts 69.1 95.8 97.5 46.3 132.6 65.0 -58.6 -96.9
Previous 46.6 -57.8
  
Manufacturing 34.7 60.5 39.3 10.7 41.3 44.5 -53.8 -37.9
  
Wholesale trade 27.5 39.0 53.8 30.8 80.1 32.7 -20.3 -56.1
Motor vehicles & parts 5.6 -.1 5.3 6.1 12.4 5.1 .7 -1.1
Ex. motor vehicles & parts 21.8 39.0 48.5 24.8 67.7 27.6 -21.0 -54.9
  
Retail trade -1.3 -5.0 .5 16.0 81.2 -42.4 9.3 -5.6
Motor vehicles & parts -13.8 -1.3 -9.1 5.1 57.6 -35.3 -7.0 -1.6
Ex. motor vehicles & parts 12.6 -3.7 9.6 10.9 23.6 -7.1 16.2 -4.1
Previous 11.2 17.0
Furniture, home furnishing, electronic and appliance stores 1.1 -2.3 1.9 2.4 5.2 .1 1.8 1.0
Building materials & garden equipment and supply dealers 2.8 2.7 -.5 5.9 6.0 7.2 4.4 -2.3
Food and beverage stores 2.3 1.9 2.0 2.1 .8 1.7 4.0 2.3
Clothing and accessory stores -.3 -4.0 -.1 1.2 3.1 -.6 1.3 .0
General merchandise -.5 -2.6 1.5 .5 -.5 -8.3 10.3 1.6
Other1 7.2 .6 4.9 -1.2 9.0 -7.2 -5.4 -6.7

1. Includes health and personal care stores; gasoline stations; sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores; miscellaneous store retailers; and nonstore retailers.  Return to table

Source: Census Bureau.


Figure: Inventory-Sales Ratio - Total Excluding Wholesale and Retail Motor Vehicles & Parts

1992 to October 2008, by Months' supply. Line chart. The series starts at about 1.53 and generally decreases to about 1.16 by mid-2008. It then increases to about 1.25 by the end.

Source: Census Bureau.


Recent Changes in Producer Price Indexes

(Percent change)
Product Weights1 12-month change2 3-month change 2008
Nov.
2007
Nov.
2008
Aug.
2008
Nov.
2008
Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
Annual rate Monthly rate
PPI finished goods 100.0 7.3 .4 8.3 -19.5 -.9 -.4 -2.8 -2.2
Food 21.3 7.3 6.7 9.1 .0 .3 .2 -.2 .0
Energy 21.7 23.6 -15.4 15.6 -68.0 -5.0 -2.9 -12.8 -11.2
Gasoline 7.4 51.6 -40.1 21.3 -90.5 -3.5 -.5 -24.9 -25.7
Fuel oil 1.0 35.9 -21.9 2.9 -87.4 -13.6 -13.9 -9.6 -23.3
Residential natural gas 3.0 2.1 7.3 42.7 -53.9 -5.2 -8.2 -5.9 -4.6
Residential electricity 7.4 4.1 6.5 12.4 2.4 .5 -.2 -.5 1.4
Other energy 2.9 53.4 -24.0 -9.8 -81.8 -15.7 -4.5 -18.6 -16.0
Finished goods ex. food and energy 57.0 2.1 4.2 4.9 3.9 .4 .4 .4 .1
Consumer goods ex. food and energy 35.3 2.4 4.4 4.9 3.7 .5 .5 .3 .1
Nondurables ex. food and energy 21.2 3.7 5.9 7.0 4.1 .6 .5 .3 .2
Apparel 1.5 .7 1.1 2.7 -.2 .5 -.2 .0 .2
Tobacco products 3.4 8.1 3.3 .4 1.8 -.1 .3 .0 .2
Other nondurables 16.3 3.6 6.9 8.8 4.9 .7 .6 .4 .2
Durables 14.1 .8 2.5 2.6 2.9 .4 .4 .4 .0
Passenger cars 2.1 -.7 1.2 11.1 -7.2 .5 .5 -1.7 -.6
Light trucks 3.0 -.3 .6 -13.4 14.5 -.2 1.0 2.6 -.1
Other durables 9.1 1.5 3.5 6.3 1.8 .5 .1 .1 .2
Capital equipment 21.7 1.5 3.8 4.3 3.9 .3 .5 .5 .1
Passenger cars 1.3 -.7 1.2 11.1 -7.2 .5 .5 -1.7 -.6
Light trucks 2.3 -.3 .6 -13.4 14.5 -.2 1.0 2.6 -.1
Heavy trucks .9 2.9 3.4 2.9 4.9 .3 -.3 .2 1.3
Computers .1 -22.4 -17.5 -10.2 -17.6 -1.7 -1.5 -2.5 -.8
Communication equipment 1.6 .8 1.7 1.5 -.8 .3 .0 -.2 .0
Other capital equipment 15.5 2.5 4.9 6.9 4.0 .4 .5 .4 .1
Memo:
Physicians3 n.a. 3.3 2.0 1.9 3.1 .1 .1 .4 .2
Hospitals3 n.a. 3.9 1.5 2.3 -.6 .2 .2 -.4 .0
Applications software n.a. .0 1.1 -1.2 -.8 -.6 .2 -.4 .0
  
Intermediate materials ex. food and energy 72.7 3.3 6.4 20.9 -16.0 1.3 -.3 -1.7 -2.3
Materials for nondurable manufacturing 15.2 12.3 6.0 64.0 -48.4 3.9 -2.9 -4.6 -8.5
Materials for durable manufacturing 8.6 1.8 1.6 16.8 -42.3 .5 -3.2 -4.1 -6.2
Components for manufacturing 15.1 .4 4.2 8.0 1.1 .6 .4 .0 -.1
Other intermediate materials 33.7 1.3 8.9 10.0 8.1 .6 1.5 -.4 .8
  
Crude food materials 32.8 19.9 -5.4 -8.1 -43.0 -5.0 -1.1 -11.1 -1.2
Crude energy 50.9 21.1 -28.9 -30.0 -91.6 -17.3 -11.7 -24.9 -18.7
Other crude materials 16.4 16.8 -22.1 9.5 -87.2 -1.6 -9.4 -17.0 -20.4

1. Relative importance weights for December 2007, which are based on 2002 shipment levels.  Return to table

2. Not seasonally adjusted.  Return to table

3. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.  Return to table

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.



The Domestic Financial Economy

Figure: Household Net Worth

In Trillions of dollars, 2000 to 2008. Line chart. There are three series, "With revised real estate values", "With revised real estate and corporate equity values", and "Previous". With revised real estate values starts at about 43, decreases to about 40 by mid-2002, increases to about 59 by late 2007, and decreases to end at about 56. With revised real estate and corporate equity values starts at about 43, decreases to about 40 by mid-2002, increases to about 64 by late 2007, and decreases to end at about 59. Previous starts at about 43, decreases to about 39 by mid-2002, increases to about 58 by late 2007, and decreases to end at about 56.


Selected Financial Market Quotations

(One-day quotes in percent except as noted)
Instrument 2007 2008 Change to Dec. 11 from selected dates (percentage points)
Aug. 6 Sept. 15 Oct. 28 Dec. 11 2007 Aug. 6 2008 Sept. 15 2008 Oct. 28
Short-term
FOMC intended federal funds rate 5.25 2.00 1.50 1.00 -4.25 -1.00 -.50
Treasury bills1
3-month 4.74 1.03 .76 .01 -4.73 -1.02 -.75
6-month 4.72 1.52 1.23 .22 -4.50 -1.30 -1.01
Commercial paper (A1/P1 rates)2
1-month 5.26 2.47 2.71 .41 -4.85 -2.06 -2.30
3-month 5.29 2.73 2.89 1.35 -3.94 -1.38 -1.54
Large negotiable CDs1
3-month 5.34 3.45 3.63 1.90 -3.44 -1.55 -1.73
6-month 5.27 3.85 3.73 2.37 -2.90 -1.48 -1.36
Eurodollar deposits3
1-month 5.33 2.70 3.75 1.75 -3.58 -.95 -2.00
3-month 5.35 3.00 4.50 3.00 -2.35 .00 -1.50
  
Bank prime rate 8.25 5.00 4.50 4.00 -4.25 -1.00 -.50
Intermediate- and long-term
U.S. Treasury4
2-year 4.49 1.78 1.49 .53 -3.96 -1.25 -.96
5-year 4.52 2.60 2.81 1.64 -2.88 -.96 -1.17
10-year 4.82 3.68 4.43 3.15 -1.67 -.53 -1.28
U.S. Treasury indexed notes5
5-year 2.43 1.25 3.64 2.83 .40 1.58 -.81
10-year 2.48 1.70 3.29 2.59 .11 .89 -.70
  
Municipal general obligations (Bond Buyer)6 4.51 4.54 5.32 5.85 1.34 1.31 .53
Private instruments
10-year swap 5.44 4.24 4.26 2.88 -2.56 -1.36 -1.38
10-year FNMA7 5.34 4.19 5.36 3.76 -1.58 -.43 -1.60
10-year AA8 6.12 6.63 8.26 6.95 .83 .32 -1.31
10-year BBB8 6.57 7.11 9.77 9.66 3.09 2.55 -.11
10-year high yield8 9.21 10.86 16.27 18.42 9.21 7.56 2.15
Home mortgages (FHLMC survey rate)
30-year fixed 6.59 5.78 6.46 5.47 -1.12 -.31 -.99
1-year adjustable 5.65 5.03 5.38 5.09 -.56 .06 -.29

Stock exchange index Record high 2008 Change to Dec. 11 from selected dates (percent)
Level Date Sept. 15 Oct. 28 Dec. 11 Record high 2008 Sept. 15 2008 Oct. 28
Dow Jones Industrial 14,165 10-9-07 10,918 9,065 8,565 -39.53 -21.55 -5.52
S&P 500 Composite 1,565 10-9-07 1,193 941 874 -44.18 -26.76 -7.12
Nasdaq 5,049 3-10-00 2,180 1,649 1,508 -70.13 -30.83 -8.58
Russell 2000 856 7-13-07 690 483 451 -47.27 -34.58 -6.49
Wilshire 5000 15,807 10-9-07 12,184 9,341 8,705 -44.93 -28.55 -6.81

1. Secondary market.  Return to table

2. Financial commercial paper.  Return to table

3. Bid rates for Eurodollar deposits collected around 9:30 a.m. eastern time.  Return to table

4. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using off-the-run securities.  Return to table

5. Derived from a smoothed Treasury yield curve estimated using all outstanding securities and adjusted for the carry effect.  Return to table

6. Most recent Thursday quote.  Return to table

7. Constant-maturity yields estimated from Fannie Mae domestic noncallable coupon securities.  Return to table

8. Derived from smoothed corporate yield curves estimated using Merrill Lynch bond data.  Return to table

NOTES:
 August 6, 2007, is the day before the August 2007 FOMC meeting.
 September 15, 2008, is the day before the September 2008 FOMC monetary policy announcement.
 October 28, 2008, is the day before the most recent FOMC monetary policy announcement.
 Data for the 3-month commercial paper on December 11, 2008, are from December 4, 2008, the most recent date for which a sufficient volume of new issues was available to calculate this rate.


Commercial Bank Credit

(Percent change, annual rate, except as noted; seasonally adjusted)
Type of credit 2006 2007 H1
2008
Q3
2008
Sept.
2008
Oct.
2008
Nov.
2008
Level1
Nov. 2008
Total 10.3 11.1 4.7 3.7 14.2 20.3 -13.3 9,615
Loans2
Total 12.0 12.1 6.5 2.1 11.6 9.8 -11.0 7,178
To businesses
Commercial and industrial 14.3 19.1 13.8 5.7 21.7 49.1 -3.0 1,598
Commercial real estate 13.6 10.4 10.3 1.3 -1.2 3.3 4.5 1,724
To households
Residential real estate 9.9 8.4 2.4 -4.9 -5.7 -5.4 -7.8 2,060
Revolving home equity 3.1 7.1 13.7 12.0 16.7 22.4 5.6 581
Other 12.3 8.8 -1.2 -10.8 -14.0 -15.7 -12.9 1,480
Consumer 2.9 7.9 7.3 8.4 6.4 11.1 7.7 876
Originated3 3.9 7.1 7.5 5.7 7.4 12.7 -2.3 1,295
Other4 21.1 17.5 -2.4 8.1 62.1 -9.7 -74.8 919
Securities
Total 5.6 8.4 -.7 8.5 22.0 52.3 -19.8 2,437
Treasury and agency 2.0 -5.8 -1.0 24.1 30.5 79.4 62.5 1,405
Other5 10.8 27.9 -.4 -7.1 12.8 21.8 -116.0 1,032

Note. Yearly annual rates are Q4 to Q4; quarterly and monthly annual rates use corresponding average levels. Data have been adjusted to remove the effects of mark-to-market accounting rules (FIN 39 and FAS 115), the initial consolidation of certain variable interest entities (FIN 46), the initial adoption of fair value accounting (FAS 159), and the effects of sizable nonbank structure activity in October 2006, March 2007, October 2007, September 2008, and November 2008. Data also account for breaks caused by reclassifications.

1. Billions of dollars. Pro rata averages of weekly (Wednesday) levels.  Return to table

2. Excludes interbank loans.  Return to table

3. Includes an estimate of outstanding loans securitized by commercial banks.  Return to table

4. Includes security loans and loans to farmers, state and local governments, and all others not elsewhere classified. Also includes lease financing receivables.  Return to table

5. Includes private mortgage-backed securities; securities of corporations, state and local governments, and foreign governments; and any trading account assets that are not Treasury or agency securities.  Return to table

Source: Federal Reserve.


Figure: C&I Loan Rate Spreads

As Basis points, 1997 to 2008 Q4. Line chart. Data is quarterly. There are two series, "Weighted average" and "Weighted average adjusted". Weighted average starts at about 155, increases to about 200 by early 2004, decreases to about 180 by early 2008, and increases to end at about 195. Weighted average adjusted starts at about 155, increases to about 185 by early 2003, decreases to about 140 by early 2006, and increases to end at about 165.

Note: Spreads over market interest rate on an instrument of comparable maturity on loans less than $25 million (2006$). Weighted average adjusted is adjusted for changes in nonprice loan characteristics.

Source: Survey of Terms of Business Lending.

Figure: Growth of Unused Commitments

By Percent, data are Quarterly, line chart 1990 to 2008Q3. Series starts at about 12, decreases to about -1 in 1991, increases to about 14 in 1995, decreases to about -4 in 2003, increases to about 8 by 2006, and decreases to end at about -9.

Note: Data for 2008:Q3 are adjusted to remove the effect of JPMorgan Chase's acquisition of Washington Mutual. This panel has been corrected from the version in the Greenbook on December 10.

Source: Call Report.

Figure: Mark-to-Market of Non-Agency MBS

By Percent, data is Quarterly, 2004 to 2008Q3. Line chart. There are two series, "Top 25" and "Other", which track very closely throughout the chart. Top 25 starts at about 103 with Other at 101. They converge at about 98 in mid-2006, and decrease to end at about 84 (Other) and 85 (Top 25).

Note: The mark-to-market value of nonagency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) is defined as the fair value over historical cost for those banks that hold non-agency securities.

Source: Call Report.


The International Economy

Trade in Goods and Services

2007 Annual rate Monthly rate
2008 2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug. Sept. Oct.
Percent change
Nominal BOP
Exports 14.5 15.7 22.9 11.9 -1.6 -6.4 -2.2
Imports 9.7 13.4 18.2 6.2 -2.2 -5.7 -1.3
Real NIPA
Exports 8.9 5.1 12.3 3.4
Imports 1.1 -.8 -7.3 -3.2
Billions of dollars
Nominal BOP
Net exports -700.3 -708.4 -720.3 -706.1 -58.9 -56.6 -57.2
Goods, net -819.4 -844.1 -865.3 -858.8 -71.1 -69.5 -69.8
Services, net 119.1 135.7 145.0 152.7 12.2 13.0 12.6

n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.  Return to table

BOP Balance of payments.  Return to table

NIPA National income and product accounts.  Return to table

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau.


U.S. International Trade In Goods and Services

(Quarterly)

Figure: Trade Balance
Period Billions of dollars, annual rate
1999:Q1 -214.37
1999:Q2 -253.70
1999:Q3 -285.91
1999:Q4 -305.80
2000:Q1 -359.85
2000:Q2 -363.60
2000:Q3 -388.54
2000:Q4 -406.98
2001:Q1 -392.27
2001:Q2 -356.45
2001:Q3 -360.52
2001:Q4 -352.05
2002:Q1 -374.18
2002:Q2 -415.79
2002:Q3 -431.61
2002:Q4 -472.60
2003:Q1 -499.35
2003:Q2 -494.75
2003:Q3 -493.33
2003:Q4 -501.14
2004:Q1 -540.89
2004:Q2 -598.85
2004:Q3 -621.54
2004:Q4 -669.38
2005:Q1 -663.10
2005:Q2 -682.80
2005:Q3 -720.75
2005:Q4 -778.16
2006:Q1 -756.64
2006:Q2 -767.52
2006:Q3 -790.15
2006:Q4 -699.72
2007:Q1 -718.59
2007:Q2 -715.25
2007:Q3 -672.53
2007:Q4 -694.87
2008:Q1 -707.80

As shown in the figure, values near the end of the series are approximately as follows: 2008:Q2: -715, 2008:Q3: -706, October 2008: -690 billion dollars.


Figure: Contribution of Net Exports to Growth of Real Gross Domestic Product
Period Percentage points, annual rate
1999:Q1 -1.67
1999:Q2 -1.35
1999:Q3 -0.75
1999:Q4 0.01
2000:Q1 -1.53
2000:Q2 -0.98
2000:Q3 -0.87
2000:Q4 -0.07
2001:Q1 -0.04
2001:Q2 0.49
2001:Q3 -0.56
2001:Q4 -0.66
2002:Q1 -0.97
2002:Q2 -0.62
2002:Q3 -0.49
2002:Q4 -1.52
2003:Q1 0.21
2003:Q2 -0.73
2003:Q3 0.51
2003:Q4 -0.47
2004:Q1 -0.75
2004:Q2 -1.50
2004:Q3 -0.42
2004:Q4 -1.07
2005:Q1 0.28
2005:Q2 0.79
2005:Q3 -0.07
2005:Q4 -1.26
2006:Q1 0.09
2006:Q2 0.59
2006:Q3 -0.12
2006:Q4 1.33
2007:Q1 -1.20
2007:Q2 1.66
2007:Q3 2.03
2007:Q4 0.94
2008:Q1 0.77
2008:Q2 2.93
2008:Q3 1.07

Figure: Selected Exports
Billions of dollars, annual rate
Period Aircraft Consumer goods Industrial supplies Capital goods ex. aircraft
1999:Q1 56.75 78.76 127.09 245.36
1999:Q2 49.91 79.41 130.95 251.10
1999:Q3 52.49 81.01 135.15 262.71
1999:Q4 52.66 84.46 146.67 272.41
2000:Q1 43.99 87.61 151.80 285.57
2000:Q2 51.75 88.73 154.67 304.40
2000:Q3 48.69 91.55 162.62 325.50
2000:Q4 47.96 89.55 162.18 319.91
2001:Q1 56.10 92.64 156.31 307.84
2001:Q2 54.89 91.56 148.25 277.00
2001:Q3 50.95 85.15 141.09 251.25
2001:Q4 48.31 84.03 136.34 240.49
2002:Q1 49.56 82.59 135.34 235.71
2002:Q2 50.43 84.31 145.35 243.03
2002:Q3 53.68 85.54 147.53 243.47
2002:Q4 48.11 84.95 148.76 237.75
2003:Q1 45.71 86.93 157.86 236.88
2003:Q2 43.54 87.79 155.39 239.60
2003:Q3 45.66 91.05 155.15 247.42
2003:Q4 51.60 93.88 162.37 263.81
2004:Q1 49.10 97.69 175.26 274.07
2004:Q2 47.76 102.66 184.22 281.86
2004:Q3 51.12 104.22 190.43 283.62
2004:Q4 51.96 108.39 201.30 286.36
2005:Q1 54.61 111.56 209.25 290.33
2005:Q2 64.82 114.17 219.83 298.15
2005:Q3 58.81 115.99 216.19 303.76
2005:Q4 65.05 119.38 218.29 317.91
2006:Q1 72.40 123.47 235.60 328.55
2006:Q2 72.70 127.01 254.25 339.18
2006:Q3 73.18 130.68 261.60 342.64
2006:Q4 82.17 135.19 266.14 348.88
2007:Q1 81.17 140.92 267.44 348.98
2007:Q2 80.36 143.46 282.69 352.98
2007:Q3 91.47 149.59 295.17 366.24
2007:Q4 96.29 150.54 310.40 372.59
2008:Q1 91.13 156.85 332.39 374.90
2008:Q2 91.32 163.90 378.95 389.19
2008:Q3 91.94 169.54 ND 396.20

As shown in the figure, the "Industrial supplies" series ends in 2008:Q3 at a little under 400 billion dollars.


Figure: Selected Imports
Billions of dollars, annual rate
Period Oil Industrial supplies Consumer goods Capital goods
1999:Q1 42.21 140.96 229.77 278.81
1999:Q2 63.80 145.79 234.39 291.60
1999:Q3 79.56 153.15 246.43 300.83
1999:Q4 85.73 162.22 256.78 311.50
2000:Q1 107.78 168.43 266.57 320.46
2000:Q2 117.88 173.09 279.78 346.19
2000:Q3 127.99 179.81 286.81 362.05
2000:Q4 127.35 182.82 294.15 359.33
2001:Q1 125.26 189.64 291.95 339.57
2001:Q2 108.55 170.98 286.39 299.80
2001:Q3 97.14 160.40 282.19 280.07
2001:Q4 83.36 152.03 277.03 272.76
2002:Q1 81.57 151.42 287.10 277.53
2002:Q2 104.06 160.33 305.80 285.46
2002:Q3 106.87 164.33 317.60 285.35
2002:Q4 121.69 170.70 320.53 284.85
2003:Q1 142.13 174.38 326.24 285.88
2003:Q2 125.86 174.40 327.78 292.06
2003:Q3 131.23 180.71 333.74 294.03
2003:Q4 133.13 181.82 347.83 311.57
2004:Q1 160.79 199.50 355.69 324.33
2004:Q2 166.50 224.93 376.34 340.41
2004:Q3 177.91 240.23 372.21 349.84
2004:Q4 216.38 248.51 387.63 359.78
2005:Q1 214.05 255.78 403.85 363.30
2005:Q2 229.98 257.77 409.29 381.21
2005:Q3 266.51 259.93 404.57 381.52
2005:Q4 296.38 296.33 410.64 391.26
2006:Q1 292.81 288.60 425.15 404.26
2006:Q2 313.87 291.75 435.74 415.41
2006:Q3 333.35 303.59 448.49 426.26
2006:Q4 269.73 291.83 461.35 427.47
2007:Q1 284.09 289.01 476.06 435.43
2007:Q2 312.57 304.93 472.65 439.71
2007:Q3 332.02 305.09 470.64 449.62
2007:Q4 396.00 297.44 480.02 453.06
2008:Q1 448.56 303.39 477.92 454.29
2008:Q2 494.17 331.02 493.55 469.43
2008:Q3 ND 343.77 499.61 464.01

As shown in the figure, the Oil series ends in 2008:Q3 at approximately 520 billion dollars.


Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau.



U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services

(Billions of dollars; annual rate, balance of payments basis)
Levels Change1
2008 2008 2008 2008
Q2 Q3 Sept. Oct. Q2 Q3 Sept. Oct.
Exports of goods and services 1902.0 1956.2 1861.1 1820.7 95.4 54.2 -126.3 -40.4
Goods exports 1349.2 1386.1 1293.8 1257.6 78.0 36.9 -120.8 -36.2
Gold 19.0 17.7 19.7 14.3 -5.6 -1.3 8.4 -5.4
Other goods 1330.2 1368.4 1274.1 1243.2 83.6 38.2 -129.3 -30.8
Capital goods 480.6 487.8 457.5 456.2 14.4 7.2 -50.3 -1.4
Aircraft & parts 91.3 91.7 70.1 61.4 .0 .4 -40.9 -8.6
Computers & accessories 47.2 46.5 42.2 41.5 3.9 -.7 -4.4 -.7
Semiconductors 51.3 53.4 53.4 49.6 -1.0 2.1 -.1 -3.8
Other capital goods 290.8 296.2 291.9 303.6 11.5 5.4 -4.9 11.7
  
Automotive 124.2 131.9 124.0 121.2 1.8 7.7 -1.7 -2.8
Ind. supplies (ex. ag., gold) 379.0 398.4 354.4 343.7 46.4 19.4 -65.9 -10.7
Consumer goods 163.9 169.5 161.8 159.9 7.0 5.5 -6.2 -1.9
Agricultural 129.8 129.9 123.3 112.9 12.0 .0 -9.2 -10.4
All other goods 52.7 51.0 53.2 49.4 1.9 -1.7 -57.4 -3.7
  
Services exports 552.7 570.1 567.3 563.2 17.4 17.3 -5.4 -4.1
Imports of goods and services 2622.3 2662.4 2539.8 2507.0 107.3 40.0 -153.9 -32.8
Goods imports 2214.6 2245.0 2128.2 2095.3 99.2 30.4 -139.1 -32.9
Oil 494.5 525.7 438.8 452.0 45.8 31.3 -87.7 13.2
Gold 12.6 12.7 17.6 8.4 -5.3 .1 10.6 -9.2
Other goods 1707.5 1706.5 1671.8 1634.9 58.7 -1.0 -62.0 -36.9
Capital goods 469.3 464.0 464.8 447.5 14.9 -5.3 5.7 -17.3
Aircraft & parts 38.1 34.2 34.7 31.4 1.1 -3.9 1.9 -3.2
Computers & accessories 109.4 103.3 99.0 95.7 5.1 -6.1 -4.5 -3.3
Semiconductors 26.8 26.1 26.1 25.7 .6 -.8 1.0 -.4
Other capital goods 295.0 300.5 305.1 294.7 8.2 5.4 7.4 -10.4
  
Automotive 249.9 232.8 221.6 210.5 -7.4 -17.1 -9.8 -11.1
Ind. supplies (ex. oil, gold) 331.0 343.7 337.7 324.4 27.4 12.7 -15.6 -13.2
Consumer goods 493.5 499.4 482.5 488.1 15.2 6.0 -40.4 5.6
Foods, feeds, beverages 90.1 91.7 91.2 92.1 4.7 1.7 -2.3 1.0
All other goods 73.7 74.8 74.0 72.2 3.8 1.1 .5 -1.8
  
Services imports 407.7 417.4 411.6 411.7 8.1 9.6 -14.8 .1
Memo:
Oil quantity (mb/d) 12.47 12.28 11.22 13.49 -1.59 -.19 -.94 2.27
Oil import price ($/bbl) 108.65 116.91 107.12 91.76 21.06 8.26 -11.51 -15.36

1. Change from previous quarter or month.  Return to table

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Census Bureau.


Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports

Figure: Merchandise Imports
12-month percent change
Period Core goods Non-oil goods
January 1999 -1.71 -2.64
February 1999 -1.48 -2.26
March 1999 -1.49 -2.37
April 1999 -1.39 -2.27
May 1999 -1.08 -1.88
June 1999 -0.91 -1.69
July 1999 -0.56 -1.40
August 1999 -0.13 -0.90
September 1999 0.18 -0.50
October 1999 0.03 -0.50
November 1999 0.22 -0.20
December 1999 0.57 0.00
January 2000 0.54 -0.10
February 2000 0.85 0.30
March 2000 1.40 1.01
April 2000 1.61 1.32
May 2000 1.28 0.91
June 2000 1.22 1.11
July 2000 1.63 1.62
August 2000 1.66 1.62
September 2000 1.11 1.11
October 2000 1.02 1.01
November 2000 0.44 0.50
December 2000 0.70 1.31
January 2001 1.14 2.21
February 2001 0.60 1.10
March 2001 -0.08 0.00
April 2001 -0.62 -0.60
May 2001 -0.71 -0.70
June 2001 -0.63 -1.00
July 2001 -1.82 -2.40
August 2001 -2.21 -2.79
September 2001 -1.90 -2.70
October 2001 -2.21 -3.20
November 2001 -2.39 -3.30
December 2001 -3.02 -4.47
January 2002 -3.64 -5.41
February 2002 -3.68 -5.06
March 2002 -3.36 -4.20
April 2002 -2.65 -3.22
May 2002 -2.50 -3.02
June 2002 -2.39 -2.73
July 2002 -1.29 -1.64
August 2002 -0.80 -1.23
September 2002 -0.69 -0.92
October 2002 -0.26 -0.41
November 2002 -0.06 -0.31
December 2002 0.49 0.31
January 2003 0.73 0.73
February 2003 1.29 1.46
March 2003 1.74 2.40
April 2003 1.15 0.83
May 2003 1.10 0.73
June 2003 1.40 1.14
July 2003 1.35 1.14
August 2003 1.01 0.73
September 2003 1.20 0.93
October 2003 1.26 0.83
November 2003 1.69 1.14
December 2003 1.81 1.24
January 2004 2.29 1.76
February 2004 2.51 1.85
March 2004 2.55 1.02
April 2004 3.33 2.37
May 2004 3.60 2.79
June 2004 3.30 2.47
July 2004 3.30 2.47
August 2004 3.84 3.09
September 2004 3.98 2.88
October 2004 3.75 2.88
November 2004 3.87 3.59
December 2004 4.01 3.68
January 2005 4.00 3.15
February 2005 3.75 2.83
March 2005 3.62 2.93
April 2005 3.33 3.02
May 2005 3.06 2.61
June 2005 2.99 2.31
July 2005 2.59 2.11
August 2005 2.22 1.90
September 2005 2.25 2.70
October 2005 2.70 3.80
November 2005 2.20 2.78
December 2005 1.91 2.37
January 2006 1.76 2.36
February 2006 1.57 1.57
March 2006 1.20 0.98
April 2006 1.24 0.68
May 2006 2.16 1.57
June 2006 2.81 2.16
July 2006 3.07 2.36
August 2006 3.44 2.75
September 2006 3.26 1.95
October 2006 2.66 0.39
November 2006 3.21 1.45
December 2006 3.32 1.93
January 2007 3.27 1.54
February 2007 3.18 2.23
March 2007 3.46 2.82
April 2007 3.71 3.01
May 2007 3.45 2.89
June 2007 3.17 2.78
July 2007 3.42 2.88
August 2007 3.34 2.39
September 2007 3.10 2.19
October 2007 3.82 3.36
November 2007 3.86 3.14
December 2007 3.98 3.03
January 2008 4.60 3.88
February 2008 5.37 4.55
March 2008 6.38 5.38
April 2008 7.40 6.50
May 2008 7.44 6.65
June 2008 8.02 7.28
July 2008 8.54 7.84
August 2008 8.43 7.37
September 2008 7.89 6.54
October 2008 6.37 5.01

As shown in the figure, values near the end of the series are as follows: The Core goods series continues its downward trend from about 6.3 to about 3.8. The Non-oil goods series continues its downward trend from about 5 to about 2.3.


Figure: Categories of Core Imports
12-month percent change
Period Finished goods Material-intensive goods
January 1999 -0.56 -4.50
February 1999 -0.38 -4.24
March 1999 -0.43 -4.14
April 1999 -0.40 -4.09
May 1999 -0.31 -3.19
June 1999 -0.34 -2.48
July 1999 -0.19 -1.32
August 1999 0.00 -0.30
September 1999 0.38 -0.07
October 1999 -0.12 0.62
November 1999 -0.36 2.07
December 1999 -0.36 3.26
January 2000 -0.45 3.41
February 2000 -0.65 4.77
March 2000 -0.53 6.68
April 2000 -0.28 6.75
May 2000 -0.21 5.36
June 2000 -0.28 5.45
July 2000 0.04 5.74
August 2000 -0.14 6.40
September 2000 -0.48 5.24
October 2000 -0.43 4.92
November 2000 -0.55 3.00
December 2000 -0.52 3.81
January 2001 -0.51 5.04
February 2001 -0.51 3.45
March 2001 -0.15 0.17
April 2001 -0.49 -0.72
May 2001 -0.65 -0.73
June 2001 -0.45 -1.16
July 2001 -0.79 -4.02
August 2001 -0.73 -5.91
September 2001 -0.52 -5.14
October 2001 -0.42 -6.56
November 2001 -0.56 -7.02
December 2001 -0.52 -9.17
January 2002 -0.87 -10.10
February 2002 -0.98 -10.07
March 2002 -1.40 -8.05
April 2002 -1.17 -6.12
May 2002 -1.10 -5.48
June 2002 -0.96 -5.23
July 2002 -0.73 -2.19
August 2002 -0.55 -0.75
September 2002 -0.73 0.22
October 2002 -0.71 1.64
November 2002 -0.75 2.85
December 2002 -0.56 4.09
January 2003 -0.25 4.31
February 2003 -0.05 6.11
March 2003 0.27 6.52
April 2003 0.30 4.38
May 2003 0.40 3.55
June 2003 0.52 4.21
July 2003 0.46 4.03
August 2003 0.23 3.87
September 2003 0.18 4.04
October 2003 0.33 4.31
November 2003 0.78 4.96
December 2003 0.67 5.60
January 2004 1.10 6.18
February 2004 1.11 7.19
March 2004 1.18 7.81
April 2004 1.14 10.67
May 2004 1.09 12.78
June 2004 0.73 11.62
July 2004 1.10 11.46
August 2004 1.33 13.19
September 2004 1.54 13.41
October 2004 1.45 12.50
November 2004 1.48 12.43
December 2004 2.01 12.62
January 2005 2.04 12.18
February 2005 2.23 10.41
March 2005 2.05 10.25
April 2005 2.13 8.83
May 2005 2.20 6.90
June 2005 2.37 7.02
July 2005 1.80 6.21
August 2005 1.65 4.77
September 2005 1.74 4.64
October 2005 1.59 6.38
November 2005 1.23 5.88
December 2005 0.67 5.61
January 2006 0.35 6.13
February 2006 0.24 6.12
March 2006 0.17 4.99
April 2006 0.13 5.03
May 2006 0.25 8.69
June 2006 0.45 10.82
July 2006 0.95 10.44
August 2006 1.05 11.28
September 2006 0.97 11.11
October 2006 1.11 9.00
November 2006 1.26 9.65
December 2006 1.47 9.51
January 2007 1.57 8.80
February 2007 1.46 8.13
March 2007 1.67 8.33
April 2007 1.77 9.10
May 2007 1.68 7.76
June 2007 1.66 6.54
July 2007 1.58 7.61
August 2007 1.78 7.09
September 2007 1.81 5.80
October 2007 1.93 7.75
November 2007 2.16 7.90
December 2007 2.30 7.90
January 2008 2.43 9.62
February 2008 2.72 11.49
March 2008 3.02 14.04
April 2008 3.67 15.73
May 2008 3.77 15.47
June 2008 3.70 17.41
July 2008 3.78 18.89
August 2008 3.68 18.76
September 2008 3.53 17.39
October 2008 3.34 12.91

As shown in the figure, values near the end of the series are as follows: The Finished goods series continues its downward trend from about 4 to about 3.5. The Material-intensive goods series continues its downward trend from about 13 to about 6.


Figure: Oil
Dollars per barrel
Period Spot West Texas Intermediate Import unit value
January 1999 12.47 9.88
February 1999 12.01 10.05
March 1999 14.66 11.20
April 1999 17.34 13.67
May 1999 17.75 15.25
June 1999 17.89 15.11
July 1999 20.07 16.80
August 1999 21.26 18.70
September 1999 23.88 20.49
October 1999 22.64 21.35
November 1999 24.86 21.74
December 1999 26.13 23.31
January 2000 27.27 24.02
February 2000 29.35 26.17
March 2000 29.89 27.43
April 2000 25.74 25.19
May 2000 28.78 25.35
June 2000 31.86 27.41
July 2000 29.72 28.35
August 2000 31.22 27.16
September 2000 33.88 29.74
October 2000 33.08 29.33
November 2000 34.40 29.41
December 2000 28.46 27.49
January 2001 29.58 25.54
February 2001 29.61 25.55
March 2001 27.24 24.02
April 2001 27.41 23.54
May 2001 28.64 24.47
June 2001 27.60 24.17
July 2001 26.45 23.01
August 2001 27.47 23.06
September 2001 25.88 23.94
October 2001 22.21 20.47
November 2001 19.67 17.83
December 2001 19.33 16.31
January 2002 19.67 17.14
February 2002 20.74 17.48
March 2002 24.42 20.41
April 2002 26.27 23.39
May 2002 27.02 24.49
June 2002 25.52 24.12
July 2002 26.94 24.62
August 2002 28.38 25.41
September 2002 29.67 26.31
October 2002 28.85 27.14
November 2002 26.27 25.01
December 2002 29.42 25.06
January 2003 32.94 28.26
February 2003 35.87 31.53
March 2003 33.55 31.79
April 2003 28.25 27.23
May 2003 28.14 25.08
June 2003 30.72 26.32
July 2003 30.76 27.55
August 2003 31.59 28.56
September 2003 28.29 27.28
October 2003 30.33 27.12
November 2003 31.05 27.42
December 2003 32.15 28.08
January 2004 34.24 29.80
February 2004 34.74 30.45
March 2004 36.76 32.03
April 2004 36.69 32.60
May 2004 40.29 35.04
June 2004 38.04 35.37
July 2004 40.80 35.19
August 2004 44.94 37.91
September 2004 45.95 39.17
October 2004 53.13 43.42
November 2004 48.46 41.12
December 2004 43.33 37.67
January 2005 46.84 37.13
February 2005 47.97 39.04
March 2005 54.22 43.36
April 2005 53.04 46.78
May 2005 49.83 45.17
June 2005 56.40 46.72
July 2005 58.70 50.75
August 2005 64.97 54.89
September 2005 65.57 60.25
October 2005 62.36 59.55
November 2005 58.30 54.38
December 2005 59.43 51.82
January 2006 65.51 54.70
February 2006 61.63 55.39
March 2006 62.94 54.78
April 2006 69.69 60.32
May 2006 70.98 65.50
June 2006 70.96 65.03
July 2006 74.41 68.19
August 2006 73.05 68.04
September 2006 63.87 63.03
October 2006 58.88 56.51
November 2006 59.33 53.77
December 2006 62.02 55.60
January 2007 54.16 53.25
February 2007 59.26 52.74
March 2007 60.56 56.35
April 2007 63.96 61.11
May 2007 63.46 64.30
June 2007 67.48 65.55
July 2007 74.12 69.28
August 2007 72.39 70.44
September 2007 79.93 70.64
October 2007 85.93 74.88
November 2007 94.62 82.19
December 2007 91.70 84.25
January 2008 92.95 85.41
February 2008 95.35 85.66
March 2008 105.56 91.57
April 2008 112.57 98.89
May 2008 125.39 108.44
June 2008 133.93 118.62
July 2008 133.44 124.67
August 2008 116.70 118.63
September 2008 103.90 107.12
October 2008 76.66 91.76
November 2008 57.28 ND

As shown in the figure, near the end of the series, Spot West Texas Intermediate continues its downward trend to about 45 dollars per barrel.


Figure: Natural Gas
Period Import price index (2000 = 100) Spot Henry Hub (Dollars per million Btu)
January 1999 57.90 1.84
February 1999 53.90 1.77
March 1999 48.40 1.80
April 1999 49.30 2.16
May 1999 56.40 2.26
June 1999 53.10 2.30
July 1999 60.50 2.32
August 1999 64.30 2.80
September 1999 68.80 2.52
October 1999 70.10 2.74
November 1999 80.40 2.33
December 1999 73.20 2.36
January 2000 67.40 2.44
February 2000 74.80 2.65
March 2000 76.20 2.79
April 2000 80.30 3.03
May 2000 78.80 3.58
June 2000 95.60 4.27
July 2000 100.50 3.96
August 2000 102.30 4.41
September 2000 108.30 5.07
October 2000 119.00 5.02
November 2000 123.60 5.54
December 2000 173.20 8.95
January 2001 215.50 8.17
February 2001 166.30 5.66
March 2001 123.80 5.16
April 2001 126.60 5.17
May 2001 120.50 4.21
June 2001 101.90 3.71
July 2001 81.90 3.10
August 2001 80.80 2.94
September 2001 77.30 2.15
October 2001 61.10 2.45
November 2001 74.30 2.37
December 2001 67.90 2.39
January 2002 69.70 2.25
February 2002 58.00 2.31
March 2002 64.90 3.03
April 2002 86.20 3.42
May 2002 84.50 3.49
June 2002 85.10 3.22
July 2002 80.00 2.98
August 2002 76.60 3.09
September 2002 84.00 3.55
October 2002 90.70 4.12
November 2002 93.60 4.03
December 2002 98.80 4.72
January 2003 121.20 5.44
February 2003 132.10 7.79
March 2003 190.70 5.95
April 2003 124.70 5.27
May 2003 123.20 5.81
June 2003 134.60 5.82
July 2003 125.10 5.03
August 2003 112.00 4.97
September 2003 117.80 4.62
October 2003 109.30 4.65
November 2003 109.50 4.49
December 2003 117.40 6.15
January 2004 142.50 6.17
February 2004 141.40 5.39
March 2004 123.60 5.38
April 2004 125.40 5.71
May 2004 131.80 6.30
June 2004 143.70 6.29
July 2004 137.10 5.93
August 2004 137.20 5.44
September 2004 120.50 5.11
October 2004 121.80 6.39
November 2004 169.90 6.16
December 2004 167.30 6.62
January 2005 153.30 6.13
February 2005 147.00 6.13
March 2005 148.20 6.92
April 2005 166.40 7.20
May 2005 163.00 6.48
June 2005 151.20 7.16
July 2005 161.70 7.64
August 2005 168.20 9.46
September 2005 217.00 11.88
October 2005 270.80 13.42
November 2005 274.00 10.28
December 2005 259.20 13.05
January 2006 254.60 8.65
February 2006 193.90 7.54
March 2006 169.20 6.90
April 2006 164.00 7.16
May 2006 164.20 6.23
June 2006 150.80 6.19
July 2006 149.10 6.22
August 2006 161.40 7.14
September 2006 152.80 4.90
October 2006 117.70 5.84
November 2006 168.50 7.36
December 2006 185.70 6.73
January 2007 161.20 6.60
February 2007 169.00 7.92
March 2007 177.10 7.10
April 2007 172.50 7.59
May 2007 175.80 7.62
June 2007 174.70 7.35
July 2007 160.70 6.21
August 2007 140.40 6.23
September 2007 136.40 6.08
October 2007 151.40 6.78
November 2007 175.90 7.15
December 2007 178.40 7.13
January 2008 182.40 7.98
February 2008 198.30 8.54
March 2008 211.60 9.44
April 2008 225.70 10.13
May 2008 247.70 11.28
June 2008 271.30 12.68
July 2008 284.10 11.06
August 2008 225.30 8.25
September 2008 183.50 7.67
October 2008 176.60 6.73
November 2008 ND 6.67

As shown in the figure, near the end of the series, Spot Henry Hub continues its downward trend to about 6 dollars per million Btu.


Figure: Merchandise Exports
12-month percent change
Period Core goods Total goods
January 1999 -2.09 -2.76
February 1999 -2.00 -2.67
March 1999 -2.16 -2.78
April 1999 -1.61 -2.19
May 1999 -1.52 -2.19
June 1999 -1.12 -1.70
July 1999 -0.83 -1.41
August 1999 0.05 -0.61
September 1999 0.74 0.00
October 1999 1.18 0.41
November 1999 1.16 0.41
December 1999 1.29 0.51
January 2000 1.42 0.71
February 2000 2.20 1.32
March 2000 3.04 2.15
April 2000 2.85 1.94
May 2000 2.84 2.04
June 2000 2.70 1.93
July 2000 2.60 1.94
August 2000 2.04 1.42
September 2000 2.56 1.93
October 2000 2.13 1.52
November 2000 1.89 1.31
December 2000 1.63 1.11
January 2001 1.65 1.11
February 2001 0.97 0.60
March 2001 0.29 0.00
April 2001 0.22 -0.10
May 2001 -0.26 -0.60
June 2001 -0.38 -0.70
July 2001 -0.63 -1.00
August 2001 -0.63 -1.00
September 2001 -1.08 -1.39
October 2001 -1.58 -1.99
November 2001 -2.10 -2.49
December 2001 -2.04 -2.50
January 2002 -2.19 -2.79
February 2002 -2.38 -2.89
March 2002 -1.90 -2.40
April 2002 -1.34 -1.90
May 2002 -0.97 -1.61
June 2002 -0.56 -1.41
July 2002 0.26 -0.71
August 2002 0.68 -0.30
September 2002 0.90 -0.20
October 2002 1.42 0.41
November 2002 2.16 1.02
December 2002 2.07 1.02
January 2003 2.39 1.44
February 2003 3.33 2.26
March 2003 3.27 2.15
April 2003 2.63 1.63
May 2003 2.64 1.73
June 2003 2.54 1.53
July 2003 1.95 1.12
August 2003 1.71 0.91
September 2003 1.84 1.01
October 2003 2.26 1.32
November 2003 2.67 1.72
December 2003 3.21 2.23
January 2004 3.66 2.63
February 2004 3.72 2.71
March 2004 4.34 3.31
April 2004 5.23 4.12
May 2004 5.54 4.41
June 2004 4.73 3.92
July 2004 5.45 4.53
August 2004 4.91 4.02
September 2004 4.82 4.01
October 2004 5.20 4.40
November 2004 4.96 4.18
December 2004 4.79 3.97
January 2005 4.87 4.04
February 2005 4.28 3.42
March 2005 4.25 3.30
April 2005 4.13 3.09
May 2005 3.50 2.50
June 2005 4.11 3.19
July 2005 3.80 2.79
August 2005 4.31 3.09
September 2005 4.86 3.56
October 2005 5.03 3.74
November 2005 3.96 2.77
December 2005 3.97 2.77
January 2006 3.85 2.75
February 2006 3.92 2.74
March 2006 3.32 2.26
April 2006 3.59 2.53
May 2006 4.64 3.47
June 2006 5.55 4.22
July 2006 5.76 4.49
August 2006 6.44 5.16
September 2006 4.94 3.91
October 2006 3.74 2.86
November 2006 4.88 3.90
December 2006 5.50 4.46
January 2007 5.28 4.15
February 2007 6.13 4.88
March 2007 6.87 5.42
April 2007 6.46 5.11
May 2007 5.94 4.62
June 2007 5.53 4.32
July 2007 5.11 4.03
August 2007 4.73 3.75
September 2007 5.62 4.48
October 2007 6.92 5.57
November 2007 7.55 6.17
December 2007 7.36 6.04
January 2008 8.34 6.81
February 2008 8.46 6.94
March 2008 9.74 7.93
April 2008 9.73 7.99
May 2008 9.89 8.05
June 2008 10.61 8.71
July 2008 12.71 10.25
August 2008 10.27 8.25
September 2008 8.77 7.03
October 2008 5.22 4.08

As shown in the figure, values near the end of the series are as follows: For Core goods, the series continues its downward trend from about 5.7 to about 0.1. For Total goods, the series continues its downward trend from about 4 to about -0.1.


Figure: Categories of Core Exports
12-month percent change
Period Finished goods Material-intensive goods
January 1999 0.33 -5.85
February 1999 0.36 -5.74
March 1999 0.33 -5.88
April 1999 0.46 -4.73
May 1999 0.37 -4.44
June 1999 0.57 -3.60
July 1999 0.50 -3.07
August 1999 0.62 -0.79
September 1999 0.56 1.16
October 1999 0.70 2.22
November 1999 0.80 1.95
December 1999 0.71 2.40
January 2000 0.61 2.86
February 2000 0.67 5.06
March 2000 0.74 7.24
April 2000 0.76 6.42
May 2000 0.89 6.64
June 2000 0.80 5.97
July 2000 1.04 5.64
August 2000 1.06 3.84
September 2000 1.02 5.26
October 2000 0.78 4.24
November 2000 0.74 3.84
December 2000 0.91 3.16
January 2001 0.98 2.95
February 2001 0.90 0.90
March 2001 1.00 -0.86
April 2001 1.01 -0.94
May 2001 0.91 -2.23
June 2001 0.94 -2.37
July 2001 0.86 -3.03
August 2001 0.71 -2.64
September 2001 0.74 -3.96
October 2001 0.83 -5.28
November 2001 0.81 -6.56
December 2001 0.71 -6.63
January 2002 0.55 -6.48
February 2002 0.43 -6.73
March 2002 0.35 -5.63
April 2002 0.36 -3.98
May 2002 0.32 -3.03
June 2002 0.32 -1.68
July 2002 0.21 0.68
August 2002 0.38 1.40
September 2002 0.41 2.24
October 2002 0.37 3.81
November 2002 0.38 5.51
December 2002 0.29 5.71
January 2003 0.43 6.39
February 2003 0.64 8.76
March 2003 0.45 9.25
April 2003 0.39 7.40
May 2003 0.42 7.20
June 2003 0.51 6.69
July 2003 0.64 4.73
August 2003 0.52 4.33
September 2003 0.46 4.61
October 2003 0.51 5.75
November 2003 0.55 7.01
December 2003 0.73 8.16
January 2004 0.77 9.24
February 2004 0.72 9.28
March 2004 0.91 10.48
April 2004 1.05 12.54
May 2004 1.06 13.36
June 2004 0.97 11.24
July 2004 1.03 13.14
August 2004 1.21 11.46
September 2004 1.25 11.06
October 2004 1.42 11.63
November 2004 1.54 10.85
December 2004 1.69 10.12
January 2005 1.88 9.46
February 2005 1.87 8.20
March 2005 1.83 7.87
April 2005 1.91 7.48
May 2005 1.88 6.07
June 2005 1.80 7.67
July 2005 1.58 7.09
August 2005 1.48 8.67
September 2005 1.63 9.85
October 2005 1.55 10.05
November 2005 1.37 7.41
December 2005 1.28 7.49
January 2006 1.26 7.47
February 2006 1.38 7.50
March 2006 1.44 5.95
April 2006 1.60 6.31
May 2006 1.79 8.61
June 2006 2.04 10.65
July 2006 2.36 10.64
August 2006 2.44 12.12
September 2006 2.40 8.58
October 2006 2.35 5.61
November 2006 2.48 8.66
December 2006 2.52 9.91
January 2007 2.74 8.99
February 2007 2.62 11.05
March 2007 2.68 12.68
April 2007 2.63 11.79
May 2007 2.59 10.51
June 2007 2.53 9.36
July 2007 2.49 8.51
August 2007 2.52 7.54
September 2007 2.42 9.67
October 2007 2.54 12.81
November 2007 2.61 13.80
December 2007 2.83 13.16
January 2008 2.64 15.61
February 2008 2.87 15.41
March 2008 3.00 17.92
April 2008 3.04 17.83
May 2008 3.02 18.16
June 2008 2.98 19.71
July 2008 3.11 24.18
August 2008 3.25 18.66
September 2008 3.33 15.22
October 2008 3.41 7.35

As shown in the figure, values near the end of the series are as follows: The Finished goods series decreases slightly to about 3. The Material-intensive goods series continues its downward trend from about 8 to about -3.


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wall Street Journal; Commodity Research Bureau.



Prices of U.S. Imports and Exports

(Percentage change from previous period)
Annual rate Monthly rate
2008 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4e Sept. Oct. Nov.
BLS prices
Merchandise imports 36.6 4.3 -39.0 -3.5 -5.4 -6.7
Oil 152.1 6.2 -85.1 -11.2 -19.8 -25.8
Non-oil 12.9 3.4 -9.5 -.9 -.9 -1.8
Core goods1 13.3 6.2 -8.6 -.5 -.9 -2.1
Finished goods 5.3 2.4 -.5 -.0 .0 -.4
Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi. 8.7 4.6 -.5 .2 -.1 -.4
Automotive products 2.3 1.4 -.7 -.1 .1 -.6
Consumer goods 4.9 1.4 -.3 -.1 .1 -.3
Material-intensive goods 31.4 13.9 -22.7 -1.4 -2.8 -5.6
Foods, feeds, beverages 19.1 11.2 -17.5 -1.6 -1.4 -5.0
Industrial supplies ex. fuels 35.0 14.8 -24.2 -1.3 -3.2 -5.7
  
Computers -3.9 -8.4 -6.3 -.9 -.4 -.7
Semiconductors -4.9 -6.5 -.7 .0 -.4 .0
Natural gas 149.9 -25.1 -66.6 -18.6 -3.8 -1.2
  
Merchandise exports 10.2 3.8 -17.2 -.8 -2.0 -3.2
Core goods2 12.5 5.2 -20.0 -.9 -2.4 -3.8
Finished goods 3.2 2.9 1.5 .1 .4 -.3
Cap. goods ex. comp. & semi. 4.0 3.4 1.6 .1 .3 -.2
Automotive products 1.8 1.2 1.3 .1 .3 -.1
Consumer goods 2.1 3.0 1.4 .3 .5 -.9
Material-intensive goods 23.2 7.6 -38.3 -2.0 -5.2 -7.7
Agricultural products 14.4 5.8 -46.9 .1 -8.4 -7.0
Industrial supples ex. ag. 26.8 8.4 -35.8 -2.7 -4.2 -8.2
  
Computers -9.1 -8.9 -8.3 -.6 -1.1 -.5
Semiconductors -.8 -5.9 -10.1 -.1 -2.4 .0
NIPA prices
Chain price index
Imports of goods & services 28.8 9.2 n.a
Non-oil merchandise 11.2 2.9 n.a
Core goods1 10.6 4.6 n.a
Exports of goods & services 10.8 6.7 n.a
Total merchandise 12.3 5.7 n.a
Core goods2 13.9 6.7 n.a

1. Excludes computers, semiconductors, and natural gas.  Return to table

2. Excludes computers and semiconductors.  Return to table

e Estimate based on average of two months.  Return to table

n.a. Not available.

… Not applicable.

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Return to table

NIPA National income and product accounts.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics.


† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014