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December 2008 Greenbook Part 2 Tables and Charts


Domestic Nonfinancial Developments

Changes in Employment

(Thousands of employees; seasonally adjusted)
Measure and sector 2007 2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Sept. Oct. Nov.
Average monthly change Monthly change
Nonfarm payroll employment
       (establishment survey) 
91 -82 -71 -199 -403 -320 -533
Private 71 -97 -100 -210 -384 -362 -540
Natural resources and mining 3 4 6 9 7 1 4
Manufacturing -22 -43 -39 -57 -69 -104 -85
Ex. motor vehicles -15 -31 -31 -39 -53 -95 -72
Construction -19 -41 -49 -33 -55 -64 -82
Residential -20 -30 -30 -17 -18 -33 -36
Nonresidential 1 -11 -19 -15 -38 -32 -46
Wholesale trade 9 -6 -7 -12 -8 -24 -25
Retail trade 6 -29 -26 -42 -76 -62 -91
Financial activities -9 -7 -6 -13 -23 -31 -32
Temporary help services -7 -24 -30 -36 -45 -45 -78
Nonbusiness services1 76 66 63 5 -52 6 -43
Total government 21 15 29 11 -19 42 7
Total employment (household survey) 22 -81 -26 -212 -222 -297 -673
Memo:
Aggregate hours of private production
       workers (percent change)2
1.3 -1.1 -.9 -2.2 -.7 -.4 -.9
Average workweek (hours)3 33.8 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.6 33.5
Manufacturing (hours) 41.2 41.1 41.0 40.8 40.5 40.5 40.3

1. Nonbusiness services comprises education and health, leisure and hospitality, and "other."  Return to table

2. Establishment survey. Annual data are percent changes from Q4 to Q4. Quarterly data are percent changes from preceding quarter at an annual rate. Monthly data are percent changes from preceding month.  Return to table

3. Establishment survey.  Return to table


Figure: Changes in Private Payroll Employment
3-month moving average
Period Thousands
January 1999 221.33
February 1999 257.67
March 1999 182.67
April 1999 246.33
May 1999 203.33
June 1999 250.33
July 1999 222.67
August 1999 201.00
September 1999 184.33
October 1999 228.00
November 1999 261.00
December 1999 286.67
January 2000 241.00
February 2000 187.00
March 2000 216.33
April 2000 216.00
May 2000 145.00
June 2000 103.67
July 2000 92.33
August 2000 143.33
September 2000 146.67
October 2000 79.33
November 2000 139.67
December 2000 96.33
January 2001 87.00
February 2001 12.33
March 2001 -42.00
April 2001 -135.67
May 2001 -159.33
June 2001 -215.00
July 2001 -163.33
August 2001 -200.67
September 2001 -211.33
October 2001 -273.00
November 2001 -323.00
December 2001 -302.67
January 2002 -234.67
February 2002 -173.67
March 2002 -126.33
April 2002 -107.33
May 2002 -80.00
June 2002 -55.00
July 2002 -53.33
August 2002 -47.67
September 2002 -55.00
October 2002 13.33
November 2002 29.00
December 2002 -21.33
January 2003 -44.00
February 2003 -91.33
March 2003 -103.00
April 2003 -129.33
May 2003 -70.00
June 2003 -17.67
July 2003 -7.00
August 2003 -2.67
September 2003 62.67
October 2003 113.00
November 2003 115.00
December 2003 101.00
January 2004 103.00
February 2004 95.67
March 2004 155.00
April 2004 184.67
May 2004 277.00
June 2004 217.00
July 2004 152.33
August 2004 81.33
September 2004 101.33
October 2004 192.00
November 2004 177.67
December 2004 164.33
January 2005 88.67
February 2005 145.00
March 2005 143.00
April 2005 213.33
May 2005 199.00
June 2005 250.00
July 2005 239.00
August 2005 251.33
September 2005 200.67
October 2005 150.67
November 2005 190.67
December 2005 192.67
January 2006 240.67
February 2006 215.67
March 2006 250.67
April 2006 206.33
May 2006 129.00
June 2006 82.67
July 2006 99.33
August 2006 151.67
September 2006 158.67
October 2006 119.67
November 2006 119.00
December 2006 142.33
January 2007 155.33
February 2007 98.67
March 2007 89.33
April 2007 63.33
May 2007 108.67
June 2007 85.33
July 2007 105.67
August 2007 70.67
September 2007 62.33
October 2007 67.67
November 2007 71.67
December 2007 45.00
January 2008 -16.33
February 2008 -67.33
March 2008 -97.00
April 2008 -101.00
May 2008 -97.67
June 2008 -100.00
July 2008 -105.00
August 2008 -118.33
September 2008 -209.67
October 2008 -320.33

As shown in the figure, the series ends in November 2008 at about -430 thousand.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Figure: Aggregate Hours and Workweek of Production and Nonsupervisory Workers
Period Aggregate hours (2002 = 100) Workweek (Hours)
January 1999 100.4 34.4
February 1999 100.8 34.4
March 1999 100.5 34.3
April 1999 101.1 34.4
May 1999 101.3 34.4
June 1999 101.5 34.4
July 1999 101.7 34.4
August 1999 101.9 34.4
September 1999 102.0 34.4
October 1999 102.4 34.4
November 1999 102.6 34.4
December 1999 102.9 34.4
January 2000 103.1 34.4
February 2000 103.2 34.4
March 2000 103.2 34.3
April 2000 103.7 34.4
May 2000 103.3 34.3
June 2000 103.5 34.3
July 2000 103.7 34.3
August 2000 103.4 34.2
September 2000 103.6 34.2
October 2000 103.9 34.3
November 2000 103.7 34.2
December 2000 103.2 34.0
January 2001 103.7 34.2
February 2001 103.0 34.0
March 2001 103.3 34.1
April 2001 102.7 34.0
May 2001 102.6 34.0
June 2001 102.4 34.0
July 2001 102.3 34.0
August 2001 101.8 33.9
September 2001 101.2 33.8
October 2001 100.6 33.7
November 2001 100.5 33.8
December 2001 100.7 33.9
January 2002 100.3 33.8
February 2002 100.3 33.8
March 2002 100.5 33.9
April 2002 100.4 33.9
May 2002 100.2 33.9
June 2002 100.1 33.9
July 2002 99.6 33.8
August 2002 99.9 33.9
September 2002 99.8 33.9
October 2002 99.6 33.8
November 2002 99.6 33.8
December 2002 99.3 33.8
January 2003 99.4 33.8
February 2003 98.6 33.6
March 2003 98.9 33.8
April 2003 98.3 33.6
May 2003 98.5 33.7
June 2003 98.2 33.6
July 2003 98.2 33.6
August 2003 98.5 33.7
September 2003 98.4 33.6
October 2003 98.8 33.7
November 2003 98.8 33.7
December 2003 98.6 33.6
January 2004 99.3 33.8
February 2004 99.3 33.8
March 2004 99.3 33.7
April 2004 99.6 33.7
May 2004 100.2 33.8
June 2004 99.8 33.6
July 2004 100.2 33.7
August 2004 100.4 33.7
September 2004 100.9 33.8
October 2004 101.0 33.7
November 2004 100.7 33.6
December 2004 101.5 33.8
January 2005 101.3 33.7
February 2005 101.9 33.8
March 2005 101.7 33.7
April 2005 102.4 33.8
May 2005 102.2 33.7
June 2005 102.6 33.7
July 2005 102.8 33.7
August 2005 103.0 33.7
September 2005 103.5 33.8
October 2005 103.6 33.8
November 2005 104.0 33.8
December 2005 104.2 33.8
January 2006 104.8 33.9
February 2006 104.8 33.8
March 2006 105.1 33.8
April 2006 105.6 33.9
May 2006 105.4 33.8
June 2006 105.8 33.9
July 2006 106.0 33.9
August 2006 106.2 33.9
September 2006 105.9 33.8
October 2006 106.3 33.9
November 2006 106.2 33.8
December 2006 106.7 33.9
January 2007 106.5 33.8
February 2007 106.2 33.7
March 2007 107.1 33.9
April 2007 106.8 33.8
May 2007 107.1 33.8
June 2007 107.6 33.9
July 2007 107.4 33.8
August 2007 107.4 33.8
September 2007 107.6 33.8
October 2007 107.7 33.8
November 2007 107.7 33.8
December 2007 107.8 33.8
January 2008 107.4 33.7
February 2008 107.3 33.7
March 2008 107.6 33.8
April 2008 107.5 33.8
May 2008 107.1 33.7
June 2008 107.0 33.7
July 2008 106.9 33.7
August 2008 106.8 33.7
September 2008 106.1 33.6
October 2008 105.3 33.6
November 2008 104.7 33.5

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Selected Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates

(Percent; seasonally adjusted)
Rate and group 2007 2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Sept. Oct. Nov.
Civilian unemployment rate
Total 4.6 4.9 5.3 6.0 6.1 6.5 6.7
Teenagers 15.7 16.8 17.4 19.5 19.1 20.6 20.4
20-24 years old 8.2 9.0 9.8 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.9
Men, 25 years and older 3.6 3.8 4.2 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.9
Women, 25 years and older 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.4 5.1 5.2
Labor force participation rate
Total 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.1 65.8
Teenagers 41.3 40.3 41.4 40.4 40.1 39.9 38.3
20-24 years old 74.4 73.9 74.6 74.8 74.5 74.0 73.8
Men, 25 years and older 75.6 75.5 75.2 75.6 75.5 75.5 75.3
Women, 25 years and older 59.7 59.9 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.1 60.1

Figure: Labor Force Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate
Percent
Period Unemployment rate Participation rate
January 2000 4.0 67.294
February 2000 4.1 67.331
March 2000 4.0 67.258
April 2000 3.8 67.330
May 2000 4.0 67.088
June 2000 4.0 67.112
July 2000 4.0 66.899
August 2000 4.1 66.934
September 2000 3.9 66.859
October 2000 3.9 66.832
November 2000 3.9 66.949
December 2000 3.9 67.021
January 2001 4.2 67.231
February 2001 4.2 67.115
March 2001 4.3 67.158
April 2001 4.4 66.924
May 2001 4.3 66.743
June 2001 4.5 66.693
July 2001 4.6 66.760
August 2001 4.9 66.514
September 2001 5.0 66.765
October 2001 5.3 66.736
November 2001 5.5 66.742
December 2001 5.7 66.711
January 2002 5.7 66.457
February 2002 5.7 66.764
March 2002 5.7 66.635
April 2002 5.9 66.692
May 2002 5.8 66.731
June 2002 5.8 66.607
July 2002 5.8 66.536
August 2002 5.7 66.559
September 2002 5.7 66.734
October 2002 5.7 66.554
November 2002 5.9 66.366
December 2002 6.0 66.319
January 2003 5.8 66.366
February 2003 5.9 66.375
March 2003 5.9 66.278
April 2003 6.0 66.416
May 2003 6.1 66.359
June 2003 6.3 66.537
July 2003 6.2 66.207
August 2003 6.1 66.113
September 2003 6.1 66.070
October 2003 6.0 66.077
November 2003 5.8 66.133
December 2003 5.7 65.943
January 2004 5.7 66.097
February 2004 5.6 65.979
March 2004 5.8 66.027
April 2004 5.6 65.924
May 2004 5.6 65.958
June 2004 5.6 66.067
July 2004 5.5 66.105
August 2004 5.4 65.972
September 2004 5.4 65.828
October 2004 5.5 65.923
November 2004 5.4 66.019
December 2004 5.4 65.909
January 2005 5.2 65.828
February 2005 5.4 65.921
March 2005 5.2 65.871
April 2005 5.2 66.060
May 2005 5.1 66.147
June 2005 5.1 66.071
July 2005 5.0 66.081
August 2005 4.9 66.157
September 2005 5.0 66.159
October 2005 5.0 66.094
November 2005 5.0 66.062
December 2005 4.8 65.957
January 2006 4.7 65.984
February 2006 4.8 66.121
March 2006 4.7 66.145
April 2006 4.7 66.129
May 2006 4.7 66.157
June 2006 4.6 66.208
July 2006 4.7 66.145
August 2006 4.7 66.223
September 2006 4.5 66.115
October 2006 4.4 66.192
November 2006 4.5 66.299
December 2006 4.4 66.350
January 2007 4.6 66.339
February 2007 4.5 66.229
March 2007 4.4 66.226
April 2007 4.5 65.955
May 2007 4.5 65.992
June 2007 4.6 66.067
July 2007 4.7 66.004
August 2007 4.7 65.826
September 2007 4.7 66.000
October 2007 4.8 65.815
November 2007 4.7 66.059
December 2007 4.9 65.980
January 2008 4.9 66.149
February 2008 4.8 65.933
March 2008 5.1 66.028
April 2008 5.0 66.009
May 2008 5.5 66.198
June 2008 5.5 66.088
July 2008 5.7 66.067
August 2008 6.1 66.133
September 2008 6.1 65.976
October 2008 6.5 66.015
November 2008 6.7 65.844

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Figure: Persons Working Part Time for Economic Reasons
Period Percent of household employment
January 2000 2.349
February 2000 2.318
March 2000 2.364
April 2000 2.321
May 2000 2.403
June 2000 2.343
July 2000 2.303
August 2000 2.350
September 2000 2.350
October 2000 2.319
November 2000 2.525
December 2000 2.357
January 2001 2.418
February 2001 2.395
March 2001 2.381
April 2001 2.396
May 2001 2.509
June 2001 2.770
July 2001 2.594
August 2001 2.481
September 2001 3.093
October 2001 3.253
November 2001 3.169
December 2001 3.229
January 2002 3.030
February 2002 3.144
March 2002 3.012
April 2002 3.085
May 2002 3.005
June 2002 2.967
July 2002 3.039
August 2002 3.146
September 2002 3.153
October 2002 3.149
November 2002 3.171
December 2002 3.167
January 2003 3.353
February 2003 3.523
March 2003 3.385
April 2003 3.486
May 2003 3.323
June 2003 3.333
July 2003 3.381
August 2003 3.213
September 2003 3.548
October 2003 3.488
November 2003 3.512
December 2003 3.432
January 2004 3.398
February 2004 3.283
March 2004 3.425
April 2004 3.294
May 2004 3.304
June 2004 3.192
July 2004 3.188
August 2004 3.205
September 2004 3.217
October 2004 3.449
November 2004 3.243
December 2004 3.159
January 2005 3.117
February 2005 3.050
March 2005 3.135
April 2005 3.035
May 2005 3.057
June 2005 3.129
July 2005 3.090
August 2005 3.152
September 2005 3.272
October 2005 3.000
November 2005 2.941
December 2005 2.871
January 2006 2.858
February 2006 2.930
March 2006 2.787
April 2006 2.718
May 2006 2.861
June 2006 2.980
July 2006 2.960
August 2006 2.899
September 2006 2.840
October 2006 3.014
November 2006 2.865
December 2006 2.869
January 2007 2.877
February 2007 2.892
March 2007 2.932
April 2007 2.980
May 2007 3.072
June 2007 2.954
July 2007 2.972
August 2007 3.155
September 2007 3.117
October 2007 3.016
November 2007 3.062
December 2007 3.170
January 2008 3.238
February 2008 3.348
March 2008 3.381
April 2008 3.583
May 2008 3.624
June 2008 3.770
July 2008 3.993
August 2008 4.047
September 2008 4.338
October 2008 4.734
November 2008 5.080

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Figure: Unemployed Due to Job Loss

Line chart, 2000 to 2008, by Percent of labor force. The series begins at about 1.75, increases ty about 3.5 by mid 2003, decreases to about 2 by late 2006, then increases to end at about 3.9.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Figure: Job Losers Unemployed Less Than 5 Weeks
Period Percent of household employment 3-month moving average
January 2000 0.833 0.837
February 2000 0.837 0.842
March 2000 0.869 0.846
April 2000 0.730 0.812
May 2000 0.835 0.812
June 2000 0.869 0.811
July 2000 0.833 0.846
August 2000 0.876 0.859
September 2000 0.868 0.859
October 2000 0.794 0.846
November 2000 0.829 0.830
December 2000 0.847 0.823
January 2001 0.927 0.868
February 2001 1.011 0.929
March 2001 0.916 0.952
April 2001 1.070 0.999
May 2001 1.066 1.017
June 2001 1.096 1.077
July 2001 0.955 1.039
August 2001 1.089 1.047
September 2001 1.084 1.043
October 2001 1.315 1.163
November 2001 1.237 1.212
December 2001 1.133 1.228
January 2002 1.217 1.196
February 2002 1.190 1.180
March 2002 1.113 1.173
April 2002 1.086 1.130
May 2002 1.055 1.084
June 2002 1.065 1.069
July 2002 1.073 1.064
August 2002 1.140 1.093
September 2002 1.045 1.086
October 2002 1.080 1.089
November 2002 1.128 1.084
December 2002 1.087 1.099
January 2003 1.099 1.105
February 2003 1.076 1.087
March 2003 1.089 1.088
April 2003 1.066 1.077
May 2003 1.216 1.124
June 2003 1.113 1.132
July 2003 1.072 1.134
August 2003 1.135 1.107
September 2003 1.029 1.078
October 2003 1.024 1.062
November 2003 0.992 1.015
December 2003 1.014 1.010
January 2004 0.980 0.995
February 2004 0.879 0.958
March 2004 1.025 0.961
April 2004 1.028 0.977
May 2004 1.004 1.019
June 2004 0.957 0.997
July 2004 1.073 1.011
August 2004 0.976 1.002
September 2004 1.018 1.022
October 2004 0.991 0.995
November 2004 0.975 0.995
December 2004 0.994 0.987
January 2005 0.968 0.979
February 2005 0.973 0.979
March 2005 0.869 0.937
April 2005 0.901 0.915
May 2005 0.897 0.889
June 2005 0.949 0.916
July 2005 0.933 0.926
August 2005 0.891 0.924
September 2005 0.986 0.936
October 2005 0.903 0.927
November 2005 0.835 0.908
December 2005 0.884 0.874
January 2006 0.856 0.858
February 2006 0.830 0.857
March 2006 0.910 0.865
April 2006 0.910 0.883
May 2006 0.892 0.904
June 2006 0.969 0.924
July 2006 0.901 0.921
August 2006 0.832 0.901
September 2006 0.868 0.867
October 2006 0.828 0.842
November 2006 0.850 0.848
December 2006 0.931 0.869
January 2007 0.890 0.890
February 2007 0.918 0.913
March 2007 0.775 0.861
April 2007 0.870 0.855
May 2007 0.864 0.836
June 2007 0.840 0.858
July 2007 0.900 0.868
August 2007 0.905 0.882
September 2007 0.884 0.896
October 2007 0.929 0.906
November 2007 0.950 0.921
December 2007 0.964 0.948
January 2008 0.970 0.961
February 2008 0.993 0.976
March 2008 1.072 1.012
April 2008 0.932 0.999
May 2008 1.187 1.064
June 2008 1.023 1.047
July 2008 1.030 1.080
August 2008 1.222 1.092
September 2008 1.163 1.138
October 2008 1.290 1.225
November 2008 1.506 1.320

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Labor Market Indicators

Figure: Unemployment Insurance
Period Initial claims (Thousands) Insured unemployment (Millions)
9 January 1999 327.00 2.26
16 January 1999 337.43 2.29
23 January 1999 331.36 2.29
30 January 1999 324.90 2.28
6 February 1999 311.35 2.27
13 February 1999 304.59 2.26
20 February 1999 302.25 2.25
27 February 1999 301.17 2.24
6 March 1999 303.53 2.24
13 March 1999 302.70 2.23
20 March 1999 303.42 2.23
27 March 1999 302.69 2.23
3 April 1999 305.10 2.24
10 April 1999 307.70 2.24
17 April 1999 310.01 2.24
24 April 1999 308.22 2.24
1 May 1999 304.72 2.22
8 May 1999 302.43 2.21
15 May 1999 299.11 2.21
22 May 1999 301.07 2.22
29 May 1999 302.98 2.21
5 June 1999 301.42 2.21
12 June 1999 298.81 2.21
19 June 1999 297.22 2.20
26 June 1999 294.23 2.19
3 July 1999 290.04 2.19
10 July 1999 289.49 2.18
17 July 1999 293.77 2.19
24 July 1999 297.49 2.20
31 July 1999 300.88 2.19
7 August 1999 302.51 2.20
14 August 1999 298.26 2.18
21 August 1999 293.16 2.18
28 August 1999 290.55 2.18
4 September 1999 289.34 2.17
11 September 1999 286.65 2.17
18 September 1999 285.51 2.16
25 September 1999 289.57 2.16
2 October 1999 294.34 2.16
9 October 1999 296.70 2.14
16 October 1999 298.09 2.13
23 October 1999 291.69 2.11
30 October 1999 285.84 2.09
6 November 1999 283.74 2.09
13 November 1999 282.19 2.08
20 November 1999 281.21 2.08
27 November 1999 281.80 2.09
4 December 1999 282.97 2.08
11 December 1999 280.88 2.09
18 December 1999 283.51 2.10
25 December 1999 278.57 2.10
1 January 2000 278.34 2.10
8 January 2000 284.81 2.11
15 January 2000 285.44 2.11
22 January 2000 289.54 2.10
29 January 2000 289.33 2.11
5 February 2000 292.79 2.13
12 February 2000 295.48 2.13
19 February 2000 295.18 2.15
26 February 2000 293.90 2.15
4 March 2000 287.32 2.13
11 March 2000 279.76 2.12
18 March 2000 276.59 2.10
25 March 2000 274.58 2.08
1 April 2000 269.75 2.06
8 April 2000 269.19 2.04
15 April 2000 266.29 2.02
22 April 2000 266.65 2.01
29 April 2000 272.85 2.01
6 May 2000 279.08 2.00
13 May 2000 283.30 2.01
20 May 2000 284.79 2.00
27 May 2000 282.06 1.99
3 June 2000 281.32 2.00
10 June 2000 283.41 2.01
17 June 2000 286.97 2.02
24 June 2000 290.96 2.03
1 July 2000 288.87 2.04
8 July 2000 291.09 2.06
15 July 2000 293.48 2.08
22 July 2000 294.48 2.09
29 July 2000 298.71 2.09
5 August 2000 301.91 2.09
12 August 2000 304.89 2.09
19 August 2000 309.24 2.11
26 August 2000 312.60 2.12
2 September 2000 311.49 2.14
9 September 2000 309.94 2.14
16 September 2000 308.29 2.14
23 September 2000 302.44 2.13
30 September 2000 300.19 2.11
7 October 2000 300.05 2.11
14 October 2000 297.15 2.11
21 October 2000 298.93 2.10
28 October 2000 301.09 2.12
4 November 2000 306.75 2.11
11 November 2000 311.38 2.12
18 November 2000 320.55 2.17
25 November 2000 334.38 2.21
2 December 2000 335.98 2.24
9 December 2000 336.83 2.27
16 December 2000 342.32 2.28
23 December 2000 344.11 2.29
30 December 2000 348.01 2.33
6 January 2001 351.98 2.35
13 January 2001 343.09 2.36
20 January 2001 337.94 2.38
27 January 2001 340.21 2.40
3 February 2001 349.78 2.43
10 February 2001 361.55 2.45
17 February 2001 365.31 2.47
24 February 2001 371.18 2.49
3 March 2001 373.28 2.50
10 March 2001 380.04 2.53
17 March 2001 388.72 2.56
24 March 2001 386.74 2.58
31 March 2001 387.86 2.59
7 April 2001 389.25 2.60
14 April 2001 386.92 2.63
21 April 2001 392.51 2.67
28 April 2001 396.85 2.70
5 May 2001 392.66 2.73
12 May 2001 394.27 2.75
19 May 2001 394.82 2.77
26 May 2001 394.73 2.82
2 June 2001 401.03 2.87
9 June 2001 406.21 2.90
16 June 2001 404.21 2.93
23 June 2001 398.03 2.94
30 June 2001 395.01 2.95
7 July 2001 392.68 2.98
14 July 2001 395.43 3.01
21 July 2001 399.78 3.01
28 July 2001 398.07 3.03
4 August 2001 397.90 3.03
11 August 2001 395.09 3.06
18 August 2001 396.03 3.09
25 August 2001 397.80 3.12
1 September 2001 398.23 3.15
8 September 2001 401.67 3.17
15 September 2001 399.85 3.20
22 September 2001 414.38 3.23
29 September 2001 442.96 3.27
6 October 2001 460.01 3.33
13 October 2001 481.95 3.41
20 October 2001 489.14 3.47
27 October 2001 480.81 3.53
3 November 2001 471.69 3.57
10 November 2001 458.13 3.60
17 November 2001 445.62 3.66
24 November 2001 447.66 3.66
1 December 2001 453.93 3.66
8 December 2001 445.27 3.66
15 December 2001 434.69 3.62
22 December 2001 415.82 3.62
29 December 2001 404.90 3.58
5 January 2002 405.87 3.57
12 January 2002 413.03 3.54
19 January 2002 410.24 3.53
26 January 2002 408.57 3.55
2 February 2002 410.31 3.54
9 February 2002 405.19 3.55
16 February 2002 403.28 3.56
23 February 2002 399.25 3.55
2 March 2002 396.06 3.56
9 March 2002 396.47 3.56
16 March 2002 395.06 3.57
23 March 2002 399.25 3.58
30 March 2002 421.04 3.62
6 April 2002 432.51 3.66
13 April 2002 445.02 3.68
20 April 2002 445.27 3.69
27 April 2002 429.02 3.69
4 May 2002 420.15 3.68
11 May 2002 413.05 3.70
18 May 2002 411.93 3.71
25 May 2002 409.33 3.71
1 June 2002 401.37 3.70
8 June 2002 394.94 3.69
15 June 2002 391.00 3.67
22 June 2002 387.19 3.65
29 June 2002 389.23 3.63
6 July 2002 390.18 3.60
13 July 2002 387.31 3.57
20 July 2002 385.06 3.53
27 July 2002 386.23 3.50
3 August 2002 385.29 3.49
10 August 2002 386.52 3.49
17 August 2002 391.59 3.50
24 August 2002 393.51 3.51
31 August 2002 395.24 3.52
7 September 2002 401.87 3.53
14 September 2002 405.08 3.54
21 September 2002 405.72 3.55
28 September 2002 409.36 3.55
5 October 2002 406.45 3.58
12 October 2002 404.59 3.57
19 October 2002 407.36 3.56
26 October 2002 407.38 3.56
2 November 2002 407.54 3.54
9 November 2002 406.33 3.54
16 November 2002 400.71 3.52
23 November 2002 395.87 3.50
30 November 2002 389.08 3.46
7 December 2002 395.36 3.46
14 December 2002 405.37 3.48
21 December 2002 406.42 3.47
28 December 2002 414.38 3.48
4 January 2003 406.41 3.46
11 January 2003 393.60 3.43
18 January 2003 395.57 3.41
25 January 2003 394.95 3.41
1 February 2003 399.99 3.40
8 February 2003 403.01 3.41
15 February 2003 407.46 3.43
22 February 2003 411.06 3.44
1 March 2003 416.70 3.47
8 March 2003 425.18 3.49
15 March 2003 427.73 3.52
22 March 2003 425.11 3.54
29 March 2003 425.08 3.55
5 April 2003 423.38 3.56
12 April 2003 424.31 3.57
19 April 2003 434.00 3.59
26 April 2003 436.05 3.63
3 May 2003 438.74 3.67
10 May 2003 434.54 3.70
17 May 2003 428.46 3.71
24 May 2003 422.10 3.71
31 May 2003 422.94 3.72
7 June 2003 425.97 3.71
14 June 2003 424.99 3.71
21 June 2003 422.35 3.71
28 June 2003 421.78 3.70
5 July 2003 422.75 3.69
12 July 2003 420.53 3.66
19 July 2003 419.23 3.64
26 July 2003 411.42 3.62
2 August 2003 403.52 3.61
9 August 2003 401.40 3.61
16 August 2003 400.09 3.61
23 August 2003 398.38 3.59
30 August 2003 399.80 3.59
6 September 2003 404.20 3.60
13 September 2003 403.37 3.58
20 September 2003 400.39 3.59
27 September 2003 395.43 3.58
4 October 2003 386.58 3.57
11 October 2003 382.02 3.55
18 October 2003 384.05 3.52
25 October 2003 381.95 3.49
1 November 2003 376.07 3.45
8 November 2003 374.91 3.44
15 November 2003 370.54 3.41
22 November 2003 364.32 3.38
29 November 2003 363.03 3.36
6 December 2003 362.06 3.33
13 December 2003 360.41 3.31
20 December 2003 360.49 3.29
27 December 2003 358.49 3.27
3 January 2004 355.03 3.24
10 January 2004 352.44 3.22
17 January 2004 354.80 3.19
24 January 2004 355.84 3.16
31 January 2004 361.55 3.15
7 February 2004 368.85 3.15
14 February 2004 367.03 3.15
21 February 2004 368.98 3.14
28 February 2004 361.94 3.12
6 March 2004 352.65 3.09
13 March 2004 348.67 3.07
20 March 2004 345.30 3.06
27 March 2004 344.07 3.05
3 April 2004 341.99 3.03
10 April 2004 345.66 3.03
17 April 2004 349.59 3.02
24 April 2004 348.68 3.01
1 May 2004 345.84 3.01
8 May 2004 339.42 3.00
15 May 2004 335.66 2.98
22 May 2004 336.25 2.99
29 May 2004 338.86 2.97
5 June 2004 345.11 2.95
12 June 2004 342.60 2.96
19 June 2004 345.44 2.94
26 June 2004 348.82 2.94
3 July 2004 341.17 2.95
10 July 2004 341.86 2.91
17 July 2004 341.65 2.91
24 July 2004 341.57 2.91
31 July 2004 346.35 2.90
7 August 2004 345.18 2.92
14 August 2004 339.99 2.90
21 August 2004 338.32 2.89
28 August 2004 340.50 2.88
4 September 2004 337.76 2.87
11 September 2004 337.51 2.87
18 September 2004 337.84 2.86
25 September 2004 338.20 2.85
2 October 2004 340.78 2.84
9 October 2004 342.45 2.81
16 October 2004 338.51 2.79
23 October 2004 334.63 2.77
30 October 2004 333.47 2.76
6 November 2004 331.61 2.76
13 November 2004 334.36 2.75
20 November 2004 328.53 2.73
27 November 2004 329.37 2.74
4 December 2004 333.09 2.73
11 December 2004 327.78 2.73
18 December 2004 330.28 2.73
25 December 2004 326.25 2.73
1 January 2005 327.43 2.71
8 January 2005 337.94 2.71
15 January 2005 340.45 2.73
22 January 2005 343.34 2.70
29 January 2005 338.68 2.71
5 February 2005 326.38 2.71
12 February 2005 319.93 2.68
19 February 2005 317.84 2.67
26 February 2005 314.13 2.66
5 March 2005 320.51 2.66
12 March 2005 325.17 2.66
19 March 2005 328.15 2.66
26 March 2005 335.46 2.66
2 April 2005 337.16 2.67
9 April 2005 336.22 2.66
16 April 2005 330.40 2.65
23 April 2005 323.41 2.63
30 April 2005 322.00 2.61
7 May 2005 323.06 2.62
14 May 2005 326.29 2.62
21 May 2005 327.13 2.62
28 May 2005 327.89 2.62
4 June 2005 330.49 2.62
11 June 2005 332.88 2.63
18 June 2005 333.21 2.63
25 June 2005 326.20 2.63
2 July 2005 323.14 2.62
9 July 2005 322.47 2.61
16 July 2005 321.86 2.61
23 July 2005 323.78 2.61
30 July 2005 322.12 2.60
6 August 2005 317.80 2.60
13 August 2005 317.77 2.59
20 August 2005 316.90 2.59
27 August 2005 316.68 2.59
3 September 2005 320.36 2.58
10 September 2005 345.89 2.60
17 September 2005 373.26 2.65
24 September 2005 384.32 2.72
1 October 2005 399.04 2.79
8 October 2005 388.86 2.83
15 October 2005 369.35 2.84
22 October 2005 359.71 2.82
29 October 2005 343.51 2.79
5 November 2005 329.27 2.77
12 November 2005 320.11 2.75
19 November 2005 320.18 2.73
26 November 2005 316.74 2.69
3 December 2005 315.93 2.65
10 December 2005 320.07 2.62
17 December 2005 317.45 2.60
24 December 2005 319.77 2.62
31 December 2005 314.35 2.64
7 January 2006 311.05 2.62
14 January 2006 303.86 2.60
21 January 2006 297.00 2.55
28 January 2006 292.70 2.53
4 February 2006 286.82 2.51
11 February 2006 289.71 2.50
18 February 2006 289.03 2.49
25 February 2006 292.22 2.47
4 March 2006 295.37 2.46
11 March 2006 298.35 2.46
18 March 2006 303.41 2.46
25 March 2006 304.32 2.45
1 April 2006 303.42 2.44
8 April 2006 300.84 2.44
15 April 2006 299.17 2.43
22 April 2006 300.81 2.43
29 April 2006 306.96 2.43
6 May 2006 318.48 2.42
13 May 2006 327.81 2.42
20 May 2006 331.47 2.42
27 May 2006 332.57 2.43
3 June 2006 323.01 2.43
10 June 2006 313.04 2.44
17 June 2006 310.61 2.43
24 June 2006 306.10 2.44
1 July 2006 308.65 2.44
8 July 2006 316.35 2.45
15 July 2006 317.09 2.46
22 July 2006 315.97 2.46
29 July 2006 316.23 2.47
5 August 2006 314.35 2.47
12 August 2006 314.81 2.47
19 August 2006 317.77 2.48
26 August 2006 317.43 2.48
2 September 2006 316.59 2.48
9 September 2006 316.40 2.47
16 September 2006 318.55 2.47
23 September 2006 320.71 2.46
30 September 2006 319.39 2.45
7 October 2006 319.85 2.45
14 October 2006 314.78 2.46
21 October 2006 311.86 2.45
28 October 2006 316.10 2.45
4 November 2006 316.51 2.45
11 November 2006 318.94 2.44
18 November 2006 322.05 2.45
25 November 2006 326.02 2.47
2 December 2006 328.08 2.47
9 December 2006 327.58 2.48
16 December 2006 326.04 2.49
23 December 2006 319.77 2.47
30 December 2006 320.72 2.46
6 January 2007 321.14 2.45
13 January 2007 315.75 2.44
20 January 2007 320.15 2.47
27 January 2007 314.87 2.48
3 February 2007 313.47 2.49
10 February 2007 322.39 2.49
17 February 2007 318.87 2.51
24 February 2007 322.39 2.52
3 March 2007 324.81 2.53
10 March 2007 318.43 2.53
17 March 2007 315.80 2.51
24 March 2007 311.54 2.50
31 March 2007 311.29 2.50
7 April 2007 316.31 2.50
14 April 2007 321.05 2.52
21 April 2007 323.68 2.52
28 April 2007 321.31 2.53
5 May 2007 313.68 2.52
12 May 2007 305.95 2.51
19 May 2007 304.58 2.50
26 May 2007 304.89 2.50
2 June 2007 308.49 2.51
9 June 2007 311.50 2.51
16 June 2007 314.87 2.51
23 June 2007 316.03 2.52
30 June 2007 318.54 2.53
7 July 2007 316.16 2.54
14 July 2007 312.42 2.55
21 July 2007 310.66 2.55
28 July 2007 308.56 2.55
4 August 2007 312.11 2.55
11 August 2007 315.58 2.55
18 August 2007 320.11 2.56
25 August 2007 324.90 2.57
1 September 2007 325.28 2.58
8 September 2007 324.99 2.58
15 September 2007 323.15 2.58
22 September 2007 317.27 2.57
29 September 2007 318.36 2.55
6 October 2007 317.00 2.55
13 October 2007 321.81 2.55
20 October 2007 327.95 2.56
27 October 2007 329.98 2.57
3 November 2007 331.94 2.58
10 November 2007 332.01 2.59
17 November 2007 331.87 2.60
24 November 2007 336.10 2.61
1 December 2007 340.08 2.62
8 December 2007 339.81 2.64
15 December 2007 343.80 2.65
22 December 2007 344.86 2.68
29 December 2007 344.60 2.69
5 January 2008 342.79 2.72
12 January 2008 334.45 2.71
19 January 2008 327.12 2.70
26 January 2008 333.92 2.72
2 February 2008 339.19 2.71
9 February 2008 345.05 2.74
16 February 2008 349.57 2.75
23 February 2008 347.75 2.76
1 March 2008 346.04 2.78
8 March 2008 348.20 2.80
15 March 2008 356.38 2.83
22 March 2008 359.31 2.87
29 March 2008 374.66 2.91
5 April 2008 376.64 2.94
12 April 2008 376.59 2.96
19 April 2008 370.13 2.98
26 April 2008 364.30 3.00
3 May 2008 367.33 3.02
10 May 2008 367.18 3.05
17 May 2008 372.93 3.07
24 May 2008 371.21 3.08
31 May 2008 369.01 3.10
7 June 2008 372.03 3.10
14 June 2008 376.11 3.10
21 June 2008 379.30 3.11
28 June 2008 390.52 3.13
5 July 2008 381.07 3.14
12 July 2008 377.95 3.13
19 July 2008 381.68 3.17
26 July 2008 392.97 3.20
2 August 2008 420.07 3.26
9 August 2008 438.15 3.33
16 August 2008 446.28 3.37
23 August 2008 441.39 3.39
30 August 2008 439.86 3.43
6 September 2008 440.06 3.45
13 September 2008 445.63 3.48
20 September 2008 462.25 3.53
27 September 2008 474.27 3.57
4 October 2008 483.22 3.64
11 October 2008 484.61 3.68
18 October 2008 480.38 3.71
25 October 2008 477.02 3.75
1 November 2008 477.81 3.80
8 November 2008 490.99 3.87
15 November 2008 506.99 3.94
22 November 2008 518.32 4.00
29 November 2008 526.04 ND

Note: 4-week moving averages.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Employment and Training Administration.


Figure: Layoffs and Job Cuts
Period Layoffs and discharges
(Percent of private employment)
Announced job cuts (Thousands)
January 1999 ND 57.18
February 1999 ND 65.31
March 1999 ND 69.41
April 1999 ND 58.23
May 1999 ND 73.73
June 1999 ND 79.40
July 1999 ND 55.42
August 1999 ND 62.11
September 1999 ND 63.12
October 1999 ND 5.61
November 1999 ND 46.14
December 1999 ND 39.15
January 2000 ND 27.95
February 2000 ND 37.72
March 2000 ND 58.10
April 2000 ND 38.12
May 2000 ND 47.72
June 2000 ND 34.90
July 2000 ND 65.04
August 2000 ND 62.95
September 2000 ND 50.19
October 2000 ND 25.94
November 2000 ND 37.64
December 2000 1.222 126.65
January 2001 1.353 119.13
February 2001 1.295 103.84
March 2001 1.368 167.05
April 2001 1.328 166.55
May 2001 1.429 100.20
June 2001 1.332 142.32
July 2001 1.466 208.47
August 2001 1.357 146.07
September 2001 1.505 249.53
October 2001 1.681 224.82
November 2001 1.666 173.58
December 2001 1.416 154.70
January 2002 1.262 191.02
February 2002 1.391 128.74
March 2002 1.364 108.25
April 2002 1.324 112.97
May 2002 1.433 104.44
June 2002 1.433 111.56
July 2002 1.371 85.33
August 2002 1.357 122.34
September 2002 1.308 70.68
October 2002 1.375 159.90
November 2002 1.562 148.80
December 2002 1.414 87.79
January 2003 1.469 111.03
February 2003 1.389 137.52
March 2003 1.362 93.45
April 2003 1.426 145.46
May 2003 1.339 86.05
June 2003 1.535 76.45
July 2003 1.475 91.31
August 2003 1.456 82.76
September 2003 1.411 77.19
October 2003 1.363 156.39
November 2003 1.349 89.78
December 2003 1.615 89.97
January 2004 1.376 97.06
February 2004 1.487 74.73
March 2004 1.465 78.48
April 2004 1.530 69.88
May 2004 1.443 88.29
June 2004 1.336 81.11
July 2004 1.380 77.46
August 2004 1.553 76.60
September 2004 1.518 109.54
October 2004 1.453 86.33
November 2004 1.333 92.69
December 2004 1.517 107.79
January 2005 1.478 72.83
February 2005 1.489 103.84
March 2005 1.467 100.17
April 2005 1.532 54.75
May 2005 1.444 94.45
June 2005 1.436 125.40
July 2005 1.380 112.85
August 2005 1.353 73.97
September 2005 1.518 75.07
October 2005 1.253 67.05
November 2005 1.233 84.42
December 2005 1.310 106.26
January 2006 1.189 86.84
February 2006 1.283 80.44
March 2006 1.366 81.33
April 2006 1.228 56.53
May 2006 1.454 63.26
June 2006 1.234 78.54
July 2006 1.288 48.76
August 2006 1.245 69.48
September 2006 1.226 103.50
October 2006 1.346 58.44
November 2006 1.329 59.97
December 2006 1.307 51.94
January 2007 1.298 49.85
February 2007 1.278 75.53
March 2007 1.263 65.94
April 2007 1.325 68.77
May 2007 1.258 77.24
June 2007 1.340 64.07
July 2007 1.294 54.82
August 2007 1.341 84.12
September 2007 1.527 74.01
October 2007 1.438 58.06
November 2007 1.423 56.08
December 2007 1.309 39.92
January 2008 1.403 64.27
February 2008 1.378 63.00
March 2008 1.361 69.95
April 2008 1.328 89.00
May 2008 1.458 107.13
June 2008 1.444 88.10
July 2008 1.495 114.97
August 2008 1.645 93.23
September 2008 1.429 97.40
October 2008 1.529 111.64
November 2008 ND 164.57

Note: Both series are seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.

Source: For layoffs and discharges, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; for job cuts, Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, Inc.


Figure: Job Openings
Period Job openings
(Percent of private employment)
Composite Help Wanted Index*
(2006=100)
January 1999 ND 139.57
February 1999 ND 141.22
March 1999 ND 135.62
April 1999 ND 134.30
May 1999 ND 136.14
June 1999 ND 130.34
July 1999 ND 132.20
August 1999 ND 132.62
September 1999 ND 128.39
October 1999 ND 133.23
November 1999 ND 132.02
December 1999 ND 133.92
January 2000 ND 140.57
February 2000 ND 142.73
March 2000 ND 139.89
April 2000 ND 140.34
May 2000 ND 131.72
June 2000 ND 128.98
July 2000 ND 131.07
August 2000 ND 123.72
September 2000 ND 127.39
October 2000 ND 126.51
November 2000 ND 122.11
December 2000 3.5 127.63
January 2001 3.5 126.79
February 2001 3.4 119.28
March 2001 3.1 111.74
April 2001 3.1 109.39
May 2001 3.0 101.67
June 2001 2.9 97.41
July 2001 2.7 99.90
August 2001 2.6 92.04
September 2001 2.6 92.87
October 2001 2.4 81.40
November 2001 2.4 80.41
December 2001 2.3 84.71
January 2002 2.3 85.41
February 2002 2.3 86.13
March 2002 2.3 84.94
April 2002 2.3 87.47
May 2002 2.3 82.54
June 2002 2.3 88.79
July 2002 2.3 83.80
August 2002 2.3 78.71
September 2002 2.3 83.18
October 2002 2.4 77.88
November 2002 2.3 78.48
December 2002 2.1 77.23
January 2003 2.3 81.79
February 2003 2.2 82.55
March 2003 2.1 79.29
April 2003 2.2 75.86
May 2003 2.2 74.39
June 2003 2.3 79.20
July 2003 2.2 79.86
August 2003 2.2 78.38
September 2003 2.1 78.94
October 2003 2.2 77.35
November 2003 2.3 82.33
December 2003 2.3 82.96
January 2004 2.3 83.58
February 2004 2.3 88.74
March 2004 2.4 87.07
April 2004 2.5 85.43
May 2004 2.5 88.24
June 2004 2.5 86.70
July 2004 2.6 85.17
August 2004 2.6 85.92
September 2004 2.6 84.27
October 2004 2.6 87.20
November 2004 2.5 85.64
December 2004 2.6 91.19
January 2005 2.6 101.72
February 2005 2.7 100.12
March 2005 2.8 96.11
April 2005 2.8 96.84
May 2005 2.7 96.70
June 2005 2.8 98.49
July 2005 2.8 97.86
August 2005 2.8 97.08
September 2005 2.9 98.56
October 2005 3.0 97.01
November 2005 3.1 101.61
December 2005 3.0 101.70
January 2006 3.0 103.68
February 2006 3.1 104.38
March 2006 3.1 101.91
April 2006 3.0 99.00
May 2006 3.2 97.48
June 2006 3.0 98.09
July 2006 2.9 99.23
August 2006 3.0 97.23
September 2006 3.1 96.82
October 2006 3.1 99.18
November 2006 3.1 95.37
December 2006 3.2 107.60
January 2007 3.2 102.99
February 2007 3.1 103.77
March 2007 3.1 104.29
April 2007 3.1 106.13
May 2007 3.1 101.64
June 2007 3.2 99.68
July 2007 3.1 98.99
August 2007 3.1 96.39
September 2007 3.1 102.06
October 2007 3.0 97.03
November 2007 3.0 94.59
December 2007 3.0 97.54
January 2008 2.9 96.58
February 2008 2.8 95.45
March 2008 2.7 92.18
April 2008 2.7 89.70
May 2008 2.7 90.98
June 2008 2.6 89.05
July 2008 2.6 86.03
August 2008 2.5 82.21
September 2008 2.4 78.58
October 2008 2.2 75.14
November 2008 ND 73.00

* Index of staff composite help wanted advertising as a percent of private payroll employment.  Return to table

Source: For job openings, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; for Help Wanted Index, Conference Board and staff calculations.


Figure: Job Availability and Hard-to-Fill Positions
Period Job availability* (Index) Hard-to-fill** (Percent, 3-month moving average)
January 1999 133.58 29.45
February 1999 135.43 29.94
March 1999 133.24 30.60
April 1999 134.75 31.74
May 1999 133.97 30.68
June 1999 133.68 29.99
July 1999 135.28 28.79
August 1999 136.00 28.84
September 1999 135.30 28.69
October 1999 138.25 29.71
November 1999 139.13 30.90
December 1999 141.11 31.71
January 2000 143.77 31.45
February 2000 139.98 31.59
March 2000 140.90 31.89
April 2000 139.89 32.64
May 2000 140.82 33.62
June 2000 140.84 33.72
July 2000 143.41 33.58
August 2000 141.26 33.57
September 2000 142.77 33.34
October 2000 141.69 33.05
November 2000 142.08 33.59
December 2000 139.83 33.39
January 2001 135.86 33.12
February 2001 131.88 31.60
March 2001 129.60 29.49
April 2001 125.30 27.52
May 2001 123.69 25.84
June 2001 122.44 26.08
July 2001 118.66 26.00
August 2001 116.89 26.98
September 2001 109.64 26.71
October 2001 103.74 25.41
November 2001 97.20 21.98
December 2001 97.77 20.13
January 2002 95.37 19.47
February 2002 96.18 19.56
March 2002 98.20 19.35
April 2002 97.32 19.72
May 2002 97.97 19.73
June 2002 94.60 20.44
July 2002 92.28 21.11
August 2002 92.82 21.08
September 2002 92.47 19.36
October 2002 90.77 18.38
November 2002 89.40 19.36
December 2002 84.52 19.27
January 2003 84.85 19.13
February 2003 81.55 18.15
March 2003 77.96 18.55
April 2003 82.34 17.66
May 2003 77.91 16.70
June 2003 76.92 16.46
July 2003 75.73 16.18
August 2003 76.50 17.46
September 2003 77.25 18.31
October 2003 81.50 19.36
November 2003 86.63 19.08
December 2003 83.56 19.46
January 2004 83.96 19.47
February 2004 85.18 19.39
March 2004 83.67 19.73
April 2004 86.03 20.27
May 2004 84.84 21.38
June 2004 90.05 20.84
July 2004 91.97 21.92
August 2004 91.78 21.50
September 2004 91.52 21.55
October 2004 92.98 21.65
November 2004 92.01 22.11
December 2004 94.74 23.30
January 2005 94.95 22.16
February 2005 97.72 22.36
March 2005 96.75 22.29
April 2005 95.92 22.87
May 2005 97.51 23.00
June 2005 98.58 21.86
July 2005 97.05 21.65
August 2005 100.01 21.55
September 2005 98.74 22.52
October 2005 98.97 22.67
November 2005 100.37 23.46
December 2005 102.29 23.43
January 2006 104.61 24.50
February 2006 105.91 24.35
March 2006 106.45 24.18
April 2006 108.40 25.77
May 2006 107.80 25.91
June 2006 107.21 26.86
July 2006 106.86 25.06
August 2006 102.88 24.65
September 2006 108.21 24.52
October 2006 107.47 25.68
November 2006 106.31 25.47
December 2006 107.62 23.84
January 2007 107.66 22.83
February 2007 108.49 23.01
March 2007 109.78 24.76
April 2007 107.70 24.69
May 2007 108.44 24.80
June 2007 106.85 25.18
July 2007 109.08 24.77
August 2007 107.27 24.74
September 2007 105.77 24.21
October 2007 104.96 24.06
November 2007 104.38 22.81
December 2007 102.22 21.93
January 2008 100.93 21.82
February 2008 96.77 21.32
March 2008 92.99 20.02
April 2008 88.41 18.98
May 2008 86.89 17.77
June 2008 84.48 18.81
July 2008 81.13 18.12
August 2008 81.26 17.79
September 2008 82.75 16.51
October 2008 75.97 15.73
November 2008 73.86 16.14

* Proportion of households believing jobs are plentiful, minus the proportion believing jobs are hard to get, plus 100.  Return to table

** Percent of small businesses surveyed with at least one "hard-to-fill" job opening. Seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.  Return to table

Source: For job availability, Conference Board; for hard-to-fill, National Federation of Independent Business.


Figure: Expected Labor Market Conditions
Index
Period Reuters/Michigan Conference Board
January 1999 85 99.1
February 1999 92 100.5
March 1999 87 102.1
April 1999 91 104.4
May 1999 90 104.7
June 1999 98 108.1
July 1999 91 104.3
August 1999 87 104.6
September 1999 90 102.8
October 1999 88 101.3
November 1999 89 104.4
December 1999 95 105.9
January 2000 96 106.8
February 2000 94 105.6
March 2000 91 104.0
April 2000 91 104.8
May 2000 96 109.5
June 2000 88 106.6
July 2000 89 107.4
August 2000 92 106.1
September 2000 89 107.8
October 2000 83 105.8
November 2000 86 101.1
December 2000 73 98.3
January 2001 61 90.2
February 2001 57 84.3
March 2001 57 91.8
April 2001 54 89.4
May 2001 62 94.2
June 2001 65 97.5
July 2001 60 98.6
August 2001 58 98.0
September 2001 49 90.4
October 2001 50 84.9
November 2001 57 88.1
December 2001 65 97.2
January 2002 77 100.9
February 2002 76 98.8
March 2002 88 107.2
April 2002 91 107.4
May 2002 89 107.6
June 2002 85 106.1
July 2002 68 100.3
August 2002 71 99.6
September 2002 80 100.5
October 2002 69 93.2
November 2002 77 96.6
December 2002 73 95.2
January 2003 69 93.0
February 2003 70 83.9
March 2003 70 84.3
April 2003 80 95.5
May 2003 93 100.1
June 2003 85 102.0
July 2003 84 97.0
August 2003 89 99.4
September 2003 86 95.5
October 2003 83 99.2
November 2003 95 100.5
December 2003 102 106.1
January 2004 105 104.8
February 2004 95 97.6
March 2004 92 98.4
April 2004 93 100.6
May 2004 93 101.4
June 2004 104 103.1
July 2004 107 106.0
August 2004 94 101.2
September 2004 95 101.6
October 2004 95 98.4
November 2004 94 98.3
December 2004 97 101.1
January 2005 89 101.5
February 2005 89 98.5
March 2005 88 99.3
April 2005 82 95.6
May 2005 81 99.2
June 2005 84 99.0
July 2005 83 98.9
August 2005 77 99.1
September 2005 63 89.2
October 2005 66 88.3
November 2005 78 96.0
December 2005 74 96.7
January 2006 73 98.4
February 2006 72 93.5
March 2006 71 97.3
April 2006 71 99.1
May 2006 73 96.8
June 2006 73 98.3
July 2006 71 97.8
August 2006 70 96.1
September 2006 75 98.2
October 2006 78 97.1
November 2006 79 97.2
December 2006 79 98.4
January 2007 85 98.2
February 2007 75 99.1
March 2007 77 96.7
April 2007 71 97.6
May 2007 80 98.0
June 2007 75 97.0
July 2007 77 98.9
August 2007 69 97.7
September 2007 73 94.7
October 2007 70 93.1
November 2007 72 87.8
December 2007 61 91.0
January 2008 59 88.6
February 2008 59 80.9
March 2008 52 78.7
April 2008 46 75.9
May 2008 47 76.7
June 2008 41 72.3
July 2008 46 70.7
August 2008 50 80.7
September 2008 59 85.0
October 2008 44 65.8
November 2008 38 75.5

Note: The proportion of households expecting labor market conditions to improve, minus the proportion expecting conditions to worsen, plus 100.

Source: Conference Board; Reuters/University of Michigan Survey.


Figure: Net Hiring Plans: NFIB
(3-month moving average)
Period Percent
January 1999 16.65
February 1999 16.64
March 1999 16.15
April 1999 17.11
May 1999 16.17
June 1999 16.15
July 1999 15.04
August 1999 15.86
September 1999 17.09
October 1999 18.06
November 1999 19.30
December 1999 19.27
January 2000 19.15
February 2000 18.49
March 2000 17.26
April 2000 17.18
May 2000 16.44
June 2000 15.09
July 2000 15.20
August 2000 15.89
September 2000 17.59
October 2000 16.41
November 2000 14.52
December 2000 12.41
January 2001 12.56
February 2001 13.62
March 2001 14.67
April 2001 13.64
May 2001 12.69
June 2001 11.32
July 2001 11.62
August 2001 12.60
September 2001 12.55
October 2001 10.77
November 2001 9.46
December 2001 7.86
January 2002 9.03
February 2002 8.24
March 2002 10.62
April 2002 11.10
May 2002 12.69
June 2002 12.98
July 2002 12.06
August 2002 11.15
September 2002 9.21
October 2002 9.77
November 2002 9.26
December 2002 10.24
January 2003 8.75
February 2003 8.12
March 2003 5.89
April 2003 6.56
May 2003 7.10
June 2003 9.32
July 2003 10.30
August 2003 10.88
September 2003 10.96
October 2003 11.32
November 2003 11.87
December 2003 14.49
January 2004 15.48
February 2004 15.95
March 2004 15.19
April 2004 14.96
May 2004 14.93
June 2004 14.41
July 2004 14.35
August 2004 15.11
September 2004 14.96
October 2004 14.81
November 2004 15.96
December 2004 16.44
January 2005 16.19
February 2005 15.11
March 2005 14.47
April 2005 13.99
May 2005 13.83
June 2005 13.92
July 2005 14.53
August 2005 13.97
September 2005 14.74
October 2005 15.49
November 2005 15.33
December 2005 14.57
January 2006 14.37
February 2006 15.04
March 2006 14.71
April 2006 15.29
May 2006 15.02
June 2006 14.11
July 2006 13.34
August 2006 13.12
September 2006 14.77
October 2006 14.86
November 2006 16.71
December 2006 14.80
January 2007 14.92
February 2007 12.40
March 2007 14.65
April 2007 14.24
May 2007 14.78
June 2007 13.84
July 2007 13.43
August 2007 12.86
September 2007 12.23
October 2007 11.29
November 2007 11.20
December 2007 10.98
January 2008 10.08
February 2008 9.49
March 2008 8.34
April 2008 7.88
May 2008 5.46
June 2008 5.15
July 2008 4.78
August 2008 5.89
September 2008 5.15
October 2008 3.23
November 2008 0.13

Note: The chart has a series called "Manpower, Inc." A description of the series is as follows: The Manpower, Inc. series begins in 1999 at about 21 percent, increases to about 25 percent by late 2000, decreases to about 8 percent by early 2002, then fluctuates and increases to about 21 percent by early 2006. Then it decreases to end at about 10 percent.

Note: Percent planning an increase in employment minus percent planning a reduction.

Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB); Manpower, Inc.


Selected Components of Industrial Production

(Percent change from preceding comparable period)
Component Proportion
2007
(percent)
2007 1 2008 2008
Q2 Q3 Aug. Sept. Oct.
Annual rate Monthly rate
Total 100.0 2.1 -3.4 -7.6 -1.2 -3.7 1.3
Previous 100.0 2.1 -3.1 -6.0 -1.0 -2.8
  
Manufacturing 78.7 2.3 -4.0 -7.8 -1.0 -3.7 .6
Ex. motor veh. and parts 73.6 2.6 -2.2 -7.9 -.4 -3.9 .8
Ex. high-tech industries 69.3 1.3 -3.7 -8.5 -.4 -4.2 .9
  
Mining 11.6 .2 2.0 -5.7 -.2 -8.5 6.1
Utilities 9.7 3.1 -4.5 -8.4 -4.1 2.4 .4
  
Selected industries
Energy 24.7 2.3 -1.6 -9.0 -1.8 -5.1 5.0
  
High technology 4.3 22.3 20.7 2.2 -.5 -.7 -.9
Computers 1.0 16.7 13.3 -3.2 -.6 -.8 -1.1
Communications equipment 1.3 20.6 25.4 4.2 .2 .4 -.3
Semiconductors2 2.0 25.9 21.4 3.4 -1.0 -1.5 -1.2
  
Motor vehicles and parts 5.1 -2.2 -28.6 -6.8 -11.1 1.3 -3.5
  
Aircraft and parts 2.3 13.6 1.5 -25.9 -.1 -23.9 -5.6
  
Total ex. selected industries 63.6 .7 -3.8 -7.0 -.3 -3.0 .4
Consumer goods 19.9 .3 -1.7 -3.5 -.4 -.7 .1
Durables 3.6 -2.4 -6.2 -12.7 -2.2 -2.8 -.9
Nondurables 16.3 .9 -.7 -1.6 .0 -.2 .3
  
Business equipment 6.4 1.0 -7.5 -.8 .9 -1.8 -1.2
Defense and space equipment 1.2 7.2 -4.3 -6.8 .3 -3.2 1.4
  
Construction supplies 4.2 -1.9 -5.2 -2.8 -1.0 -2.0 -1.2
Business supplies 7.4 -.1 -5.5 -8.5 .2 -2.8 .4
  
Materials 24.5 1.2 -3.5 -11.4 -.6 -5.3 1.3
Durables 12.8 1.8 -3.1 -5.8 -.4 -2.1 -1.6
Nondurables 11.7 .6 -4.0 -17.1 -.8 -8.8 4.6

1. From fourth quarter of preceding year to fourth quarter of year shown.  Return to table

2. Includes related electronic components.  Return to table

… Not applicable.  Return to table

Source: Federal Reserve, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization."


Capacity Utilization

(Percent of capacity)
Sector 1972-
2007
average
1994-
95
high
2001-
02
low
2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Sept. Oct.
Total industry 81.0 85.1 73.6 80.7 79.7 77.9 75.5 76.4
  
Manufacturing 79.7 84.6 71.5 78.7 77.5 75.7 73.5 73.8
Mining 87.5 88.7 84.8 90.5 90.8 89.3 84.0 89.0
Utilities 86.8 93.9 84.6 87.1 85.6 83.3 83.3 83.5
  
Stage-of-process groups
Crude 86.6 89.5 81.9 89.5 89.2 86.4 80.1 85.6
Primary and semifinished 82.2 88.2 74.6 80.9 79.8 77.7 75.9 76.5
Finished 77.7 80.4 69.9 77.2 76.0 74.8 73.3 72.7

Source: Federal Reserve, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization."


Indicators of High-Tech Manufacturing Activity

Figure: U.S. Personal Computer and Server Absorption
Millions of units, ratio scale
Period PCs Servers
2002:Q1 11.31 0.436
2002:Q2 11.15 0.440
2002:Q3 11.24 0.456
2002:Q4 11.28 0.474
2003:Q1 11.51 0.492
2003:Q2 12.21 0.525
2003:Q3 12.77 0.558
2003:Q4 12.91 0.587
2004:Q1 13.08 0.612
2004:Q2 12.91 0.632
2004:Q3 13.18 0.657
2004:Q4 13.88 0.679
2005:Q1 13.89 0.699
2005:Q2 14.21 0.689
2005:Q3 14.73 0.689
2005:Q4 14.79 0.716
2006:Q1 14.88 0.710
2006:Q2 15.09 0.722
2006:Q3 14.97 0.741
2006:Q4 14.82 0.697
2007:Q1 15.73 0.731
2007:Q2 16.02 0.733
2007:Q3 16.06 0.748
2007:Q4 16.40 0.748
2008:Q1 16.45 0.771
2008:Q2 16.66 0.785
2008:Q3 16.86 0.753

Note: FRB seasonals. Q4 PC units are an IDC forecast (approximately 16.3 million units).

Source: International Data Corporation (IDC).


Figure: Enterprise Spending on Voice and Data Networking Equipment

In billions of 2004 dollars. Line chart, 2003-2008Q3. The series begins at about 8 and generally increases to end at about 18.

Note: FRB Seasonals.

Source: Synergy Research Group.

Figure: High-Tech Spending Plans

Line chart. Series is Diffusion index. Series begins at about 65 in 2003:Q1, increases to about 78 by early 2004, then fluctuates around 75 until mid 2006. It then generally decreases to end at about 57 in 2008:Q3.

Note: Based on survey question on firms' plans to increase or decrease their spending on high-tech equipment in the next 12 months.

Source: NABE Industry Survey.


Figure: MPU Shipments and Intel Revenue
Billions of dollars, ratio scale
Period Worldwide MPU shipments Intel revenue
2002:Q1 6.31 6.89
2002:Q2 5.87 6.69
2002:Q3 5.74 6.52
2002:Q4 5.97 6.67
2003:Q1 6.14 6.84
2003:Q2 6.40 7.22
2003:Q3 7.40 7.82
2003:Q4 7.53 8.13
2004:Q1 7.21 8.20
2004:Q2 7.56 8.56
2004:Q3 7.45 8.48
2004:Q4 7.94 8.91
2005:Q1 8.43 9.59
2005:Q2 8.96 9.89
2005:Q3 8.96 9.86
2005:Q4 8.57 9.46
2006:Q1 8.42 9.16
2006:Q2 7.26 8.62
2006:Q3 7.80 8.47
2006:Q4 8.39 9.00
2007:Q1 7.78 9.26
2007:Q2 8.48 9.40
2007:Q3 9.42 ND
2007:Q4 9.29 ND
2008:Q1 8.70 ND
2008:Q2 9.18 ND
2008:Q3 9.01 ND

Note: The Intel revenue series is at about 9.8 in 2007Q3. It increases to about 10.2 by 2008Q3, and falls to about 8.5 in 2008Q4.

Note: FRB seasonals. MPU is a microprocessor unit. Q4 Intel revenue is the midpoint of the company's guidance as of November 12, 2008.

Source: Intel; Semiconductor Industry Association.


Figure: Circuit Board Orders and Shipments
Billions of dollars
Period Orders Shipments
January 2002 126.34 118.96
February 2002 121.27 127.61
March 2002 129.41 130.38
April 2002 131.96 130.73
May 2002 119.15 123.19
June 2002 113.91 123.88
July 2002 120.23 120.93
August 2002 108.80 117.04
September 2002 102.38 115.02
October 2002 103.13 113.93
November 2002 106.75 110.75
December 2002 108.28 110.19
January 2003 105.57 95.35
February 2003 101.46 97.66
March 2003 96.56 92.56
April 2003 89.00 92.37
May 2003 102.68 94.83
June 2003 99.30 96.12
July 2003 99.20 96.64
August 2003 116.27 94.23
September 2003 115.68 101.03
October 2003 123.43 106.33
November 2003 128.92 117.54
December 2003 121.64 112.82
January 2004 126.42 122.46
February 2004 163.16 125.02
March 2004 142.98 131.63
April 2004 145.68 131.07
May 2004 168.16 135.40
June 2004 111.74 126.09
July 2004 141.76 126.44
August 2004 126.18 125.32
September 2004 135.42 126.68
October 2004 125.31 122.21
November 2004 95.59 122.82
December 2004 160.02 122.14
January 2005 151.89 132.29
February 2005 129.06 126.96
March 2005 128.68 126.88
April 2005 134.36 125.42
May 2005 138.50 124.80
June 2005 156.67 130.15
July 2005 141.04 131.85
August 2005 143.30 133.55
September 2005 175.18 132.82
October 2005 121.20 131.66
November 2005 152.29 134.41
December 2005 157.18 138.36
January 2006 160.81 135.87
February 2006 156.62 138.72
March 2006 154.62 140.28
April 2006 147.26 142.23
May 2006 145.49 147.87
June 2006 146.13 145.03
July 2006 142.93 141.90
August 2006 150.54 145.14
September 2006 129.10 142.48
October 2006 135.34 142.59
November 2006 127.02 142.16
December 2006 131.40 139.48
January 2007 129.89 132.31
February 2007 127.67 126.72
March 2007 126.80 124.59
April 2007 132.53 124.98
May 2007 130.50 126.82
June 2007 127.79 129.13
July 2007 133.58 131.89
August 2007 136.91 128.49
September 2007 143.77 132.28
October 2007 140.79 139.66
November 2007 140.28 129.92
December 2007 131.49 131.56
January 2008 126.43 137.74
February 2008 136.91 126.80
March 2008 137.13 137.19
April 2008 138.02 140.99
May 2008 128.11 133.37
June 2008 124.47 133.12
July 2008 128.79 140.78
August 2008 118.68 132.74
September 2008 125.15 128.26

Note: U.S. and Canadian shipments of bare and loaded circuit boards.

Source: Institute for Printed Circuits.


Figure: Bookings and Billings for Semiconductor Equipment
Billions of dollars
Period Bookings Billings
January 2002 0.661 0.844
February 2002 0.742 0.837
March 2002 0.849 0.801
April 2002 0.943 0.784
May 2002 1.056 0.846
June 2002 1.098 0.900
July 2002 1.144 0.946
August 2002 1.009 0.978
September 2002 0.894 1.038
October 2002 0.796 0.992
November 2002 0.842 1.014
December 2002 0.816 0.913
January 2003 0.758 0.827
February 2003 0.769 0.797
March 2003 0.791 0.860
April 2003 0.718 0.809
May 2003 0.691 0.784
June 2003 0.675 0.753
July 2003 0.683 0.767
August 2003 0.724 0.775
September 2003 0.836 0.805
October 2003 0.895 0.862
November 2003 1.000 0.910
December 2003 1.173 1.001
January 2004 1.263 1.088
February 2004 1.340 1.180
March 2004 1.406 1.273
April 2004 1.498 1.345
May 2004 1.485 1.374
June 2004 1.494 1.456
July 2004 1.532 1.486
August 2004 1.486 1.454
September 2004 1.439 1.430
October 2004 1.410 1.429
November 2004 1.441 1.395
December 2004 1.242 1.370
January 2005 1.021 1.323
February 2005 1.049 1.383
March 2005 1.008 1.278
April 2005 0.945 1.198
May 2005 0.962 1.180
June 2005 0.960 1.113
July 2005 0.970 1.045
August 2005 0.997 1.013
September 2005 1.045 1.079
October 2005 1.125 1.150
November 2005 1.187 1.232
December 2005 1.166 1.278
January 2006 1.275 1.324
February 2006 1.332 1.345
March 2006 1.411 1.345
April 2006 1.519 1.397
May 2006 1.520 1.410
June 2006 1.640 1.501
July 2006 1.669 1.582
August 2006 1.674 1.653
September 2006 1.734 1.659
October 2006 1.512 1.575
November 2006 1.552 1.555
December 2006 1.553 1.556
January 2007 1.510 1.521
February 2007 1.442 1.499
March 2007 1.440 1.445
April 2007 1.485 1.548
May 2007 1.533 1.621
June 2007 1.475 1.701
July 2007 1.351 1.624
August 2007 1.317 1.579
September 2007 1.307 1.540
October 2007 1.273 1.505
November 2007 1.234 1.449
December 2007 1.212 1.438
January 2008 1.194 1.344
February 2008 1.243 1.385
March 2008 1.180 1.356
April 2008 1.032 1.299
May 2008 0.957 1.273
June 2008 0.855 1.116
July 2008 0.854 1.036
August 2008 0.847 0.994
September 2008 0.687 0.915
October 2008 0.871 0.883

Note: FRB seasonals.

Source: Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International.


Indicators of Industrial Activity

Figure: Industrial Production Diffusion Index

2002 to October 2008. Line chart. The index begins at about 48, inreases to about 66 by mid 2002, decreases to about 40 by early in 2003, then increases to about 65 by late 2003. It then fluctuates between 50 and 65 until late 2007. It then generally decreases to end at about 27.

Note: The diffusion index equals the percentage of series that increased over 3 months plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged.

Source: Federal Reserve, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization."

Figure: Weekly Steel Production

2006 to December 6, 2008. In thousands of tons, line chart. Series begins at about 2050 in early 2006. It decreases in late 2006 to about 1750 then increases to about 2200 by mid 2008. It then decreases to end at about 1225.

Note: FRB seasonals.

Source: American Iron and Steel Institute

Figure: Motor Vehicle Assemblies

In millions of units, 2002 to December 2008. Line chart. The Autos and light trucks series begins at about 11.6 in early 2002 and generally decreases to end at about 7.7. The Medium and heavy trucks series starts at about 0.23 and generally increases to about 0.5 by late 2006. It then decreases to end at about 8.

Note: December values are based on latest industry schedules.

Source: Ward's Communications [redacted].

Figure: Energy Industrial Production

line chart, 2002 to November 2008. In all series, 2002=100. Crude oil begins at 100 in 2002, generally decreases to about 90 by late 2005. It then sharply decreases to 75 but quickly increases back to about 86 by early 2006. It then remains about constant until it sharply decreases in late 2008 to about 66. It then quickly increases to end at about 85. Natural gas extraction begins at 100 in 2002, and remains about constant until early 2006 when it begins to increase. It increases to end at about 107. Petroleum refining begins in 2002 at 100. It increases to about 115 by mid 2005. It fluctuates but remains about constant and ends at about 112.

Note: November values based on available weekly data from the Dept. of Energy (DOE) and estimates of facilities that remain offline from DOE and Dept. of the Interior.

Source: Federal Reserve, G.17 Statistical Release, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization."


Figure: Boeing Commercial Aircraft Completions: Actual [redacted]
2002 = 100
Period Actual
January 2002 134.11
February 2002 126.05
March 2002 124.10
April 2002 114.07
May 2002 101.69
June 2002 97.22
July 2002 94.91
August 2002 95.06
September 2002 80.81
October 2002 77.76
November 2002 77.97
December 2002 77.81
January 2003 74.59
February 2003 74.50
March 2003 71.01
April 2003 70.91
May 2003 77.06
June 2003 77.38
July 2003 77.26
August 2003 77.05
September 2003 69.13
October 2003 69.01
November 2003 69.03
December 2003 68.94
January 2004 71.70
February 2004 71.93
March 2004 71.97
April 2004 71.90
May 2004 71.32
June 2004 71.08
July 2004 67.78
August 2004 67.88
September 2004 67.78
October 2004 67.87
November 2004 65.10
December 2004 65.26
January 2005 65.17
February 2005 64.14
March 2005 75.09
April 2005 75.38
May 2005 75.40
June 2005 76.85
July 2005 82.63
August 2005 84.37
September 2005* 1.36
October 2005 88.68
November 2005 103.60
December 2005 82.00
January 2006 92.72
February 2006 96.37
March 2006 100.05
April 2006 99.88
May 2006 100.08
June 2006 99.04
July 2006 99.06
August 2006 106.29
September 2006 106.44
October 2006 106.62
November 2006 106.80
December 2006 107.19
January 2007 107.11
February 2007 121.58
March 2007 121.93
April 2007 122.36
May 2007 122.68
June 2007 122.96
July 2007 123.43
August 2007 123.29
September 2007 123.46
October 2007 123.78
November 2007 123.94
December 2007 123.81
January 2008 124.26
February 2008 129.69
March 2008 130.01
April 2008 130.26
May 2008 130.60
June 2008 130.61
July 2008 130.80
August 2008 131.46
September 2008* 27.22
October 2008* 4.18

Note: 1998 price-weighted index. Actual completions equal deliveries plus the change in the stock of finished aircraft. [redacted].

* Boeing strikes.  Return to table

Source: Boeing.


Figure: ISM New Orders Diffusion Index and Change in Real Adjusted Durable Goods Orders
Period ISM (Diffusion index)
January 2002 55.2
February 2002 60.7
March 2002 63.8
April 2002 59.9
May 2002 61.8
June 2002 61.2
July 2002 51.9
August 2002 50.6
September 2002 52.9
October 2002 52.1
November 2002 49.9
December 2002 58.7
January 2003 58.2
February 2003 51.9
March 2003 47.2
April 2003 47.2
May 2003 53.4
June 2003 53.6
July 2003 56.8
August 2003 61.1
September 2003 60.8
October 2003 64.4
November 2003 69.1
December 2003 71.3
January 2004 70.6
February 2004 66.5
March 2004 64.6
April 2004 67.1
May 2004 64.5
June 2004 60.9
July 2004 62.8
August 2004 62.1
September 2004 57.7
October 2004 58.4
November 2004 60.1
December 2004 66.3
January 2005 58.2
February 2005 55.8
March 2005 57.3
April 2005 54.8
May 2005 52.1
June 2005 55.6
July 2005 58.7
August 2005 55.8
September 2005 61.0
October 2005 60.6
November 2005 59.6
December 2005 60.2
January 2006 59.4
February 2006 61.1
March 2006 58.4
April 2006 57.5
May 2006 53.5
June 2006 55.7
July 2006 54.8
August 2006 54.1
September 2006 54.5
October 2006 52.7
November 2006 49.8
December 2006 53.8
January 2007 51.9
February 2007 55.2
March 2007 52.1
April 2007 58.2
May 2007 57.6
June 2007 58.2
July 2007 56.8
August 2007 54.4
September 2007 54.0
October 2007 53.2
November 2007 52.8
December 2007 47.6
January 2008 48.9
February 2008 48.9
March 2008 47.1
April 2008 46.4
May 2008 48.6
June 2008 49.3
July 2008 44.9
August 2008 48.2
September 2008 39.2
October 2008 32.4
November 2008 28.1

Note: The figure has a series called "RADGO". The RADGO series begins in early 2002 at about -1. It fluctuates between about -2 and 2 until mid-2008. It then decreases to end at about -5.

Note: The measure for real adjusted durable goods orders (RADGO) is a 3-month moving average.

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM). RADGO is compiled by FRB staff based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau.


Sales of Light Vehicles

(Millions of units at an annual rate; FRB seasonals)
Category 2007 2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Sept. Oct. Nov.
Total 16.1 15.2 14.1 12.9 12.5 10.5 10.1
  
Autos 7.6 7.4 7.6 6.6 6.2 5.6 5.0
Light trucks 8.5 7.8 6.5 6.3 6.3 4.9 5.2
  
North American1 12.3 11.5 10.4 9.7 9.5 7.7 7.6
Autos 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.4 4.3 3.7 3.3
Light trucks 7.1 6.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 4.0 4.3
  
Foreign-produced 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.6
Autos 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.7
Light trucks 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 .9 .9
Memo:
Detroit Three domestic market
     share (percent)2
51.4 50.2 45.9 46.7 51.8 46.0 47.7

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

1. Excludes some vehicles produced in Canada that are classified as imports by the industry.  Return to table

2. Domestic market share excludes sales of foreign brands affiliated with the Detroit Three.  Return to table

Source: Ward's Communications. Adjusted using FRB seasonals.


[Content redacted.]

[Content redacted.]


Figure: Car-Buying Attitudes
Period Appraisal of car-buying conditions (Index)
January 2002 156
February 2002 156
March 2002 149
April 2002 148
May 2002 151
June 2002 149
July 2002 155
August 2002 152
September 2002 158
October 2002 156
November 2002 153
December 2002 155
January 2003 152
February 2003 140
March 2003 141
April 2003 149
May 2003 160
June 2003 157
July 2003 160
August 2003 150
September 2003 152
October 2003 155
November 2003 161
December 2003 157
January 2004 161
February 2004 150
March 2004 153
April 2004 147
May 2004 144
June 2004 144
July 2004 142
August 2004 144
September 2004 148
October 2004 152
November 2004 138
December 2004 154
January 2005 147
February 2005 144
March 2005 130
April 2005 128
May 2005 133
June 2005 139
July 2005 152
August 2005 147
September 2005 125
October 2005 119
November 2005 125
December 2005 135
January 2006 137
February 2006 134
March 2006 138
April 2006 132
May 2006 112
June 2006 124
July 2006 130
August 2006 124
September 2006 128
October 2006 137
November 2006 140
December 2006 140
January 2007 136
February 2007 133
March 2007 138
April 2007 132
May 2007 124
June 2007 118
July 2007 125
August 2007 133
September 2007 139
October 2007 128
November 2007 117
December 2007 117
January 2008 119
February 2008 119
March 2008 114
April 2008 110
May 2008 96
June 2008 91
July 2008 103
August 2008 103
September 2008 108
October 2008 98
November 2008 115

Note: The figure has a series called "Rates are high/credit is tight". Rates are high/credit is tight begins in early 2002 at about 3. It fluctuates betwee 0 and 8 until late 2008 when it increases to about 19. It ends in November 2008 at about 14.

Source: Reuters/University of Michigan Survey.


Figure: Market Share of Light Vehicles by Segment

2006 to 2008, line chart, by percent. Large and midsize cars begin at about 34 percent in early 2006, fluctuate but generally remain the same until the end. Pickup/van/SUV start at about 38 percent, and generally decrease to end at about 34. Cross utility starts at about 14, increases to about 17 in mid 2006, decreases to about 14 in late 2006, fluctuates then increases to about 24 percent in mid 2008, then decreases to end at about 18. Small cars starts at about 14 and generally increases to end at about 18.

Note: Data through November. FRB seasonals.

Source: Ward's Communications. Adjusted using FRB seasonals.



Production of Domestic Light Vehicles

(Millions of units at an annual rate except as noted)
Item 2008 2009 2008
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
U.S. production1 8.5 8.6 7.6 7.6 8.2 7.9 7.3 7.7
Autos 3.7 4.2 3.6 3.3 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.6
Light trucks 4.9 4.3 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.1
Days' supply2 72 76 n.a. n.a. 77 97 100 n.a.
Autos 48 67 n.a. n.a. 68 88 103 n.a.
Light trucks 94 84 n.a. n.a. 85 105 98 n.a.
Inventories3 2.41 2.40 n.a. n.a. 2.40 2.45 2.46 n.a.
Autos 0.78 0.96 n.a. n.a. 0.96 1.06 1.11 n.a.
Light trucks 1.63 1.44 n.a. n.a. 1.44 1.39 1.36 n.a.
Memo: U.S. production,
    total motor vehicles4
8.8 8.8 7.8 7.9 8.4 8.1 7.5 7.9

Note: FRB seasonals. Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

1. Production rates for December, the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 reflect the latest industry schedules.  Return to table

2. Quarterly values are calculated with end-of-period stocks and average reported sales.  Return to table

3. End-of-period stocks.  Return to table

4. Includes medium and heavy trucks.  Return to table

n.a. Not available.  Return to table

Source: Ward's Communications [redacted].


Figure: Inventories of Light Vehicles

Line chart, by millions of units. The series begins in early 1998 at about 2.85 and decreases to about 2.45 by mid-2008. It then increases to about 3.3 by early 2001. Then it decreases to about 2.4 by late 2001. It then increases to about 3.35 by late 2004. It then generally decreases to end at about 2.45 in November 2008.

Source: Ward's Communications. Adjusted using FRB seasonals.

Figure: Days' Supply of Light Vehicles

Line chart, 1998 to November 2008, in Days. There are 2 series, "Using sales in current month" and "Using 3-month moving average of sales". The series track each other very closely throughout the chart. They begin at about 70 in early 1998, fluctuating between about 40 and 80 but generally staying near 70 until mid-2008. They then increase in late 2008. "Using sales in current month" ends at about 100, and "Using 3-month moving average of sales" ends at about 90.

Source: Constructed from Ward's Communications data. Adjusted using FRB seasonals.



Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

(Percent change from preceding comparable period)
Category 2007 2008 2008
Q2 Q3 Aug. Sept. Oct.
Annual rate Monthly rate
Total real PCE 2.8 1.2 -3.7 -.1 -.4 -.5
Motor vehicles 2.0 -19.7 -26.4 7.9 -6.5 -8.0
Goods ex. motor vehicles 3.2 4.8 -7.3 -.7 -.9 -.8
Ex. energy 3.5 6.4 -6.9 -1.1 -1.1 -.9
Services 2.6 .7 .0 -.2 .2 .2
Ex. energy 2.6 1.2 .7 -.2 .1 .0
Memo:
Nominal retail control1 5.2 10.0 .5 -1.0 -.5 -2.3

1. Total sales less outlays at building material and supply stores and automobile and other motor vehicle dealers.  Return to table

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Figure: Change in Real PCE Goods (1990-2008)
Percent
Period 6-month moving average
July 1990 -0.268
August 1990 -0.065
September 1990 -0.097
October 1990 -0.283
November 1990 -0.134
December 1990 -0.395
July 1991 0.508
August 1991 0.249
September 1991 -0.152
October 1991 -0.070
November 1991 -0.094
December 1991 -0.088
January 1992 0.201
February 1992 0.298
March 1992 0.151
April 1992 0.326
May 1992 0.438
June 1992 0.426
July 1992 0.053
August 1992 0.148
September 1992 0.390
October 1992 0.534
November 1992 0.318
December 1992 0.534
January 1993 0.538
February 1993 0.277
March 1993 0.128
April 1993 0.219
May 1993 0.464
June 1993 0.194
July 1993 0.308
August 1993 0.384
September 1993 0.623
October 1993 0.382
November 1993 0.290
December 1993 0.387
January 1994 0.220
February 1994 0.560
March 1994 0.441
April 1994 0.538
May 1994 0.275
June 1994 0.383
July 1994 0.422
August 1994 0.296
September 1994 0.254
October 1994 0.350
November 1994 0.539
December 1994 0.427
January 1995 0.390
February 1995 0.027
March 1995 0.196
April 1995 -0.124
May 1995 0.047
June 1995 0.190
July 1995 0.118
August 1995 0.422
September 1995 0.377
October 1995 0.308
November 1995 0.323
December 1995 0.333
January 1996 0.182
February 1996 0.302
March 1996 0.288
April 1996 0.608
May 1996 0.434
June 1996 0.228
July 1996 0.520
August 1996 0.406
September 1996 0.294
October 1996 0.276
November 1996 0.309
December 1996 0.330
January 1997 0.395
February 1997 0.354
March 1997 0.479
April 1997 0.216
May 1997 0.102
June 1997 0.286
July 1997 0.381
August 1997 0.492
September 1997 0.277
October 1997 0.449
November 1997 0.704
December 1997 0.544
January 1998 0.335
February 1998 0.256
March 1998 0.443
April 1998 0.548
May 1998 0.530
June 1998 0.557
July 1998 0.537
August 1998 0.614
September 1998 0.635
October 1998 0.703
November 1998 0.620
December 1998 0.739
January 1999 0.579
February 1999 0.626
March 1999 0.582
April 1999 0.483
May 1999 0.565
June 1999 0.412
July 1999 0.570
August 1999 0.484
September 1999 0.452
October 1999 0.367
November 1999 0.281
December 1999 0.661
January 2000 0.516
February 2000 0.586
March 2000 0.663
April 2000 0.530
May 2000 0.470
June 2000 -0.011
July 2000 0.225
August 2000 0.112
September 2000 0.177
October 2000 0.257
November 2000 0.172
December 2000 0.338
January 2001 0.298
February 2001 0.338
March 2001 0.008
April 2001 0.006
May 2001 0.171
June 2001 0.103
July 2001 0.142
August 2001 0.180
September 2001 -0.011
October 2001 0.957
November 2001 0.607
December 2001 0.483
January 2002 0.551
February 2002 0.519
March 2002 0.763
April 2002 0.034
May 2002 0.015
June 2002 0.324
July 2002 0.345
August 2002 0.263
September 2002 0.108
October 2002 -0.066
November 2002 0.299
December 2002 0.334
January 2003 0.144
February 2003 -0.046
March 2003 0.367
April 2003 0.428
May 2003 0.375
June 2003 0.336
July 2003 0.492
August 2003 0.946
September 2003 0.585
October 2003 0.474
November 2003 0.633
December 2003 0.322
January 2004 0.368
February 2004 0.007
March 2004 0.424
April 2004 0.327
May 2004 0.327
June 2004 0.168
July 2004 0.237
August 2004 0.262
September 2004 0.267
October 2004 0.405
November 2004 0.201
December 2004 0.620
January 2005 0.303
February 2005 0.452
March 2005 0.148
April 2005 0.435
May 2005 0.207
June 2005 0.384
July 2005 0.667
August 2005 0.353
September 2005 0.238
October 2005 0.043
November 2005 0.320
December 2005 0.076
January 2006 0.159
February 2006 0.314
March 2006 0.505
April 2006 0.534
May 2006 0.437
June 2006 0.373
July 2006 0.221
August 2006 0.215
September 2006 0.233
October 2006 0.146
November 2006 0.196
December 2006 0.402
January 2007 0.289
February 2007 0.338
March 2007 0.411
April 2007 0.319
May 2007 0.464
June 2007 0.179
July 2007 0.198
August 2007 0.188
September 2007 0.145
October 2007 0.155
November 2007 0.035
December 2007 0.034
January 2008 -0.035
February 2008 -0.059
March 2008 -0.049
April 2008 0.031
May 2008 0.058
June 2008 -0.013
July 2008 -0.232
August 2008 -0.197
September 2008 -0.507

Note: In July 1990 the series begins at about -0.25 percent. It increases to about -0.05 percent in late 1990, then decreases to about -0.65 percent by early 1991. It increases to about -0.35 percent by June 1991. In October 2008 the value is about -0.8 percent.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (1990:Q3-1991:Q1 and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER (December 2007).

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Figure: Change in Real PCE Goods (2006-2008)
Percent
Period Monthly 6-month moving average
January 2006 1.670 0.159
February 2006 -0.222 0.314
March 2006 0.052 0.505
April 2006 0.828 0.534
May 2006 -0.225 0.437
June 2006 0.137 0.373
July 2006 0.754 0.221
August 2006 -0.258 0.215
September 2006 0.162 0.233
October 2006 0.304 0.146
November 2006 0.078 0.196
December 2006 1.369 0.402
January 2007 0.080 0.289
February 2007 0.033 0.338
March 2007 0.600 0.411
April 2007 -0.245 0.319
May 2007 0.949 0.464
June 2007 -0.340 0.179
July 2007 0.189 0.198
August 2007 -0.026 0.188
September 2007 0.346 0.145
October 2007 -0.186 0.155
November 2007 0.230 0.035
December 2007 -0.349 0.034
January 2008 -0.225 -0.035
February 2008 -0.171 -0.059
March 2008 0.404 -0.049
April 2008 0.299 0.031
May 2008 0.388 0.058
June 2008 -0.771 -0.013
July 2008 -1.539 -0.232
August 2008 0.039 -0.197
September 2008 -1.457 -0.507

Note: The October 2008 value for "Monthly" is about -1.5 percent. The October 2008 value for "6-month moving average" is about -0.8 percent.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Figure: Change in Real PCE Services (1990-2008)
Percent
Period 6-month moving average
July 1990 0.371
August 1990 0.373
September 1990 0.294
October 1990 0.214
November 1990 0.087
December 1990 0.080
January 1991 -0.027
February 1991 -0.051
March 1991 0.009
April 1991 0.108
May 1991 0.192
June 1991 0.145
July 1991 0.265
August 1991 0.235
September 1991 0.203
October 1991 0.109
November 1991 0.186
December 1991 0.204
January 1992 0.257
February 1992 0.245
March 1992 0.382
April 1992 0.383
May 1992 0.308
June 1992 0.363
July 1992 0.332
August 1992 0.318
September 1992 0.282
October 1992 0.249
November 1992 0.318
December 1992 0.278
January 1993 0.144
February 1993 0.318
March 1993 0.164
April 1993 0.194
May 1993 0.063
June 1993 0.185
July 1993 0.282
August 1993 0.200
September 1993 0.270
October 1993 0.309
November 1993 0.357
December 1993 0.273
January 1994 0.337
February 1994 0.288
March 1994 0.209
April 1994 0.198
May 1994 0.258
June 1994 0.251
July 1994 0.124
August 1994 0.172
September 1994 0.239
October 1994 0.228
November 1994 0.158
December 1994 0.134
January 1995 0.172
February 1995 0.197
March 1995 0.186
April 1995 0.197
May 1995 0.264
June 1995 0.319
July 1995 0.298
August 1995 0.279
September 1995 0.230
October 1995 0.220
November 1995 0.235
December 1995 0.192
January 1996 0.247
February 1996 0.233
March 1996 0.319
April 1996 0.308
May 1996 0.237
June 1996 0.240
July 1996 0.230
August 1996 0.198
September 1996 0.175
October 1996 0.169
November 1996 0.192
December 1996 0.241
January 1997 0.242
February 1997 0.285
March 1997 0.231
April 1997 0.318
May 1997 0.340
June 1997 0.237
July 1997 0.345
August 1997 0.287
September 1997 0.353
October 1997 0.373
November 1997 0.295
December 1997 0.407
January 1998 0.276
February 1998 0.397
March 1998 0.415
April 1998 0.297
May 1998 0.408
June 1998 0.425
July 1998 0.443
August 1998 0.342
September 1998 0.330
October 1998 0.300
November 1998 0.240
December 1998 0.175
January 1999 0.251
February 1999 0.219
March 1999 0.271
April 1999 0.383
May 1999 0.383
June 1999 0.383
July 1999 0.382
August 1999 0.421
September 1999 0.348
October 1999 0.311
November 1999 0.346
December 1999 0.359
January 2000 0.317
February 2000 0.396
March 2000 0.450
April 2000 0.408
May 2000 0.399
June 2000 0.403
July 2000 0.392
August 2000 0.320
September 2000 0.291
October 2000 0.336
November 2000 0.321
December 2000 0.340
January 2001 0.248
February 2001 0.184
March 2001 0.181
April 2001 0.163
May 2001 0.154
June 2001 0.050
July 2001 0.136
August 2001 0.165
September 2001 0.072
October 2001 0.142
November 2001 0.105
December 2001 0.190
January 2002 0.132
February 2002 0.162
March 2002 0.221
April 2002 0.171
May 2002 0.219
June 2002 0.157
July 2002 0.226
August 2002 0.136
September 2002 0.123
October 2002 0.150
November 2002 0.109
December 2002 0.128
January 2003 0.116
February 2003 0.161
March 2003 0.140
April 2003 0.103
May 2003 0.160
June 2003 0.145
July 2003 0.157
August 2003 0.202
September 2003 0.211
October 2003 0.218
November 2003 0.216
December 2003 0.268
January 2004 0.318
February 2004 0.281
March 2004 0.257
April 2004 0.320
May 2004 0.320
June 2004 0.238
July 2004 0.195
August 2004 0.228
September 2004 0.304
October 2004 0.242
November 2004 0.225
December 2004 0.302
January 2005 0.243
February 2005 0.195
March 2005 0.185
April 2005 0.117
May 2005 0.143
June 2005 0.164
July 2005 0.199
August 2005 0.238
September 2005 0.246
October 2005 0.282
November 2005 0.244
December 2005 0.251
January 2006 0.101
February 2006 0.223
March 2006 0.188
April 2006 0.180
May 2006 0.221
June 2006 0.147
July 2006 0.312
August 2006 0.130
September 2006 0.147
October 2006 0.290
November 2006 0.219
December 2006 0.218
January 2007 0.249
February 2007 0.364
March 2007 0.248
April 2007 0.210
May 2007 0.152
June 2007 0.197
July 2007 0.151
August 2007 0.137
September 2007 0.186
October 2007 0.067
November 2007 0.217
December 2007 0.184
January 2008 0.203
February 2008 0.100
March 2008 0.174
April 2008 0.178
May 2008 0.106
June 2008 0.100
July 2008 0.037
August 2008 0.015
September 2008 0.022

Note: The October 2008 value is about .06 percent

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (1990:Q3-1991:Q1 and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER (December 2007).

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Figure: Change in Real PCE Services (2006-2008)
Percent
Period Monthly 6-month moving average
January 2006 -0.667 0.101
February 2006 0.965 0.223
March 2006 0.027 0.188
April 2006 0.020 0.180
May 2006 0.461 0.221
June 2006 0.075 0.147
July 2006 0.326 0.312
August 2006 -0.130 0.130
September 2006 0.129 0.147
October 2006 0.878 0.290
November 2006 0.034 0.219
December 2006 0.069 0.218
January 2007 0.514 0.249
February 2007 0.562 0.364
March 2007 -0.572 0.248
April 2007 0.654 0.210
May 2007 -0.318 0.152
June 2007 0.343 0.197
July 2007 0.235 0.151
August 2007 0.479 0.137
September 2007 -0.278 0.186
October 2007 -0.058 0.067
November 2007 0.580 0.217
December 2007 0.144 0.184
January 2008 0.354 0.203
February 2008 -0.139 0.100
March 2008 0.163 0.174
April 2008 -0.033 0.178
May 2008 0.150 0.106
June 2008 0.108 0.100
July 2008 -0.027 0.037
August 2008 -0.269 0.015
September 2008 0.201 0.022

Note: The October 2008 value for "Monthly" is about 0.15 percent. The October 2008 value for "6-month moving average" is about 0.05 percent.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Fundamentals of Household Spending

Figure: Change in Real Disposable Personal Income

Line chart, 12-month percent change, from 1998 to October 2008. The series starts in early 1998 at about 5.5, fluctuates widely between about -1.5 and 6, and ends at about 0.5.

Note: Values for December 2004 and December 2005 exclude the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in December 2004.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure: Personal Saving Rate

1998 to October 2008, by percent. Line chart. The series starts in early 1998 at about 4.5, fluctuating but generally decreasing until it reaches about 0 by mid-2008. It then spikes to about 5 percent in mid-2008, decreases to about 0.5 and then increases again to about 2 by October 2008.

Note: The value for December 2004 excludes the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in that month.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Figure: Household Net Worth and Wilshire 5000: Ratio of household net worth to DPI*
Period Ratio
1999:Q1 5.765
1999:Q2 5.941
1999:Q3 5.809
1999:Q4 6.178
2000:Q1 6.179
2000:Q2 6.051
2000:Q3 6.004
2000:Q4 5.777
2001:Q1 5.521
2001:Q2 5.698
2001:Q3 5.292
2001:Q4 5.578
2002:Q1 5.492
2002:Q2 5.261
2002:Q3 5.043
2002:Q4 5.173
2003:Q1 5.119
2003:Q2 5.316
2003:Q3 5.351
2003:Q4 5.610
2004:Q1 5.646
2004:Q2 5.669
2004:Q3 5.667
2004:Q4 5.899
2005:Q1 5.961
2005:Q2 6.088
2005:Q3 6.232
2005:Q4 6.213
2006:Q1 6.309
2006:Q2 6.200
2006:Q3 6.215
2006:Q4 6.327
2007:Q1 6.313
2007:Q2 6.367
2007:Q3 6.275
2007:Q4 6.033
2008:Q1 5.744
2008:Q2 5.501
2008:Q3 5.299

Note: Ratio of household net worth to DPI begins at about 5.6 in early 1998. It decreases to about 5.4 by mid-1998 and increases to end 1998 at about 5.6.

* The value for 2004:Q4 excludes the effect on income of the one-time Microsoft dividend in December 2004.  Return to table

Source: Federal Reserve Board; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Wall Street Journal.


Figure: Household Net Worth and Wilshire 5000: Wilshire 5000
Period Index
January 1999 11724.83
February 1999 11286.08
March 1999 11707.67
April 1999 12259.36
May 1999 11976.75
June 1999 12583.60
July 1999 12189.84
August 1999 12042.23
September 1999 11713.80
October 1999 12449.40
November 1999 12851.93
December 1999 13812.67
January 2000 13230.62
February 2000 13511.00
March 2000 14296.18
April 2000 13541.70
May 2000 13052.96
June 2000 13618.50
July 2000 13330.31
August 2000 14280.04
September 2000 13613.01
October 2000 13314.68
November 2000 11976.24
December 2000 12175.88
January 2001 12631.36
February 2001 11425.29
March 2001 10645.85
April 2001 11512.46
May 2001 11610.22
June 2001 11407.15
July 2001 11208.51
August 2001 10515.09
September 2001 9562.93
October 2001 9796.86
November 2001 10531.45
December 2001 10707.68
January 2002 10564.72
February 2002 10332.89
March 2002 10775.74
April 2002 10241.18
May 2002 10106.49
June 2002 9384.03
July 2002 8616.94
August 2002 8654.04
September 2002 7773.63
October 2002 8357.32
November 2002 8846.71
December 2002 8343.19
January 2003 8125.07
February 2003 7972.60
March 2003 8051.86
April 2003 8701.97
May 2003 9218.89
June 2003 9342.95
July 2003 9555.19
August 2003 9770.56
September 2003 9649.68
October 2003 10224.52
November 2003 10352.22
December 2003 10799.63
January 2004 11029.20
February 2004 11172.89
March 2004 11039.42
April 2004 10793.66
May 2004 10926.36
June 2004 11138.91
July 2004 10701.65
August 2004 10719.15
September 2004 10895.48
October 2004 11068.95
November 2004 11568.54
December 2004 11971.14
January 2005 11642.57
February 2005 11863.48
March 2005 11638.27
April 2005 11363.52
May 2005 11787.81
June 2005 11876.74
July 2005 12360.81
August 2005 12217.13
September 2005 12289.26
October 2005 12063.24
November 2005 12521.92
December 2005 12517.69
January 2006 12953.63
February 2006 12922.27
March 2006 13155.44
April 2006 13280.93
May 2006 12841.69
June 2006 12849.29
July 2006 12789.67
August 2006 13062.54
September 2006 13345.97
October 2006 13829.07
November 2006 14116.71
December 2006 14257.55
January 2007 14531.92
February 2007 14271.61
March 2007 14409.27
April 2007 14952.35
May 2007 15462.16
June 2007 15210.65
July 2007 14682.66
August 2007 14847.70
September 2007 15362.02
October 2007 15673.36
November 2007 14932.67
December 2007 14819.58
January 2008 13896.65
February 2008 13455.96
March 2008 13332.01
April 2008 13991.12
May 2008 14260.76
June 2008 13073.54
July 2008 12946.89
August 2008 13124.49
September 2008 11875.41
October 2008 9768.64
November 2008 8945.22
9 December 2008 9087.17

Note: In January 1998 Wilshire 5000 starts at about 9600. It increases to about 10,600 by mid-1998, the decreases to about 9000 by late 1998. It then increases to about 12,000 by the end of 1998.

Source: Federal Reserve Board; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Wall Street Journal.


Figure: Target Federal Funds Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield
Percent
Period Federal funds rate Treasury yield
January 1999 4.75 4.66
February 1999 4.75 5.29
March 1999 4.75 5.25
April 1999 4.75 5.36
May 1999 4.75 5.64
June 1999 5.00 5.81
July 1999 5.00 5.92
August 1999 5.25 5.98
September 1999 5.25 5.90
October 1999 5.25 6.02
November 1999 5.50 6.18
December 1999 5.50 6.45
January 2000 5.50 6.68
February 2000 5.75 6.42
March 2000 6.00 6.03
April 2000 6.00 6.23
May 2000 6.50 6.29
June 2000 6.50 6.03
July 2000 6.50 6.04
August 2000 6.50 5.73
September 2000 6.50 5.80
October 2000 6.50 5.77
November 2000 6.50 5.48
December 2000 6.50 5.12
January 2001 5.50 5.19
February 2001 5.50 4.92
March 2001 5.00 4.93
April 2001 4.50 5.35
May 2001 4.00 5.43
June 2001 3.75 5.42
July 2001 3.75 5.07
August 2001 3.50 4.85
September 2001 3.00 4.60
October 2001 2.50 4.30
November 2001 2.00 4.78
December 2001 1.75 5.07
January 2002 1.75 5.07
February 2002 1.75 4.88
March 2002 1.75 5.42
April 2002 1.75 5.11
May 2002 1.75 5.08
June 2002 1.75 4.86
July 2002 1.75 4.51
August 2002 1.75 4.14
September 2002 1.75 3.63
October 2002 1.75 3.93
November 2002 1.25 4.22
December 2002 1.25 3.83
January 2003 1.25 4.00
February 2003 1.25 3.71
March 2003 1.25 3.83
April 2003 1.25 3.89
May 2003 1.25 3.37
June 2003 1.00 3.54
July 2003 1.00 4.49
August 2003 1.00 4.45
September 2003 1.00 3.96
October 2003 1.00 4.33
November 2003 1.00 4.34
December 2003 1.00 4.27
January 2004 1.00 4.16
February 2004 1.00 3.99
March 2004 1.00 3.86
April 2004 1.00 4.53
May 2004 1.00 4.66
June 2004 1.25 4.62
July 2004 1.25 4.50
August 2004 1.50 4.13
September 2004 1.75 4.14
October 2004 1.75 4.05
November 2004 2.00 4.36
December 2004 2.25 4.24
January 2005 2.25 4.14
February 2005 2.50 4.36
March 2005 2.75 4.50
April 2005 2.75 4.21
May 2005 3.00 4.00
June 2005 3.25 3.94
July 2005 3.25 4.28
August 2005 3.50 4.02
September 2005 3.75 4.34
October 2005 3.75 4.57
November 2005 4.00 4.49
December 2005 4.25 4.39
January 2006 4.50 4.53
February 2006 4.50 4.55
March 2006 4.75 4.86
April 2006 4.75 5.07
May 2006 5.00 5.12
June 2006 5.25 5.15
July 2006 5.25 4.99
August 2006 5.25 4.74
September 2006 5.25 4.64
October 2006 5.25 4.61
November 2006 5.25 4.46
December 2006 5.25 4.71
January 2007 5.25 4.83
February 2007 5.25 4.56
March 2007 5.25 4.65
April 2007 5.25 4.63
May 2007 5.25 4.90
June 2007 5.25 5.03
July 2007 5.25 4.78
August 2007 5.25 4.54
September 2007 4.75 4.59
October 2007 4.50 4.48
November 2007 4.50 3.97
December 2007 4.25 4.04
January 2008 3.00 3.67
February 2008 3.00 3.53
March 2008 2.25 3.45
April 2008 2.00 3.77
May 2008 2.00 4.06
June 2008 2.00 3.99
July 2008 2.00 3.99
August 2008 2.00 3.83
September 2008 2.00 3.85
October 2008 1.00 4.01
November 2008 1.00 2.93

Note: The Treasury yield series begins in January 1998 at about 5.5 percent. It decreases to end at about 4.75 percent at the end of 1998. The Federal funds rate series begins in Jaunary 1998 at about 5.5 percent. It decreases to end at about 4.75 percent at the end of 1998. 0n December 9, 2008, the Treasury yield is about 2.8 percent and the Federal funds rate is 1 percent.

Source: Federal Reserve Board.


Figure: Consumer Confidence

1990 to November 2008, line chart. There are 2 series, both confidence values. The first, Reuters/Michigan, is labeled 1966=100. The second, Conference Board, is labeled 1985=100. There are shaded bars between mid-1990 and early 1991, and again between early 2001 and late 2001. There is a vertical line labeled "NBER peak" at the end of 2007. The Reuters/Michigan series begins in 1990 at about 93. It decreases to about 65 by mid-1990, then generally increases to about 112 by early 2000. It then generally decreases to end at about 57. The Conference Board series begins in early 1990 at about 108. It decreases to about 50 by early 1992, then generally increases to about 130 by early 2000. It decreases to about 65 by early 2003, then increases to about 100 by mid-2007. It then decreases to end at about 38.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (1990:Q3-1991:Q1 and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER (December 2007).

Source: Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; Conference Board.



Private Housing Activity

(Millions of units, seasonally adjusted; annual rate except as noted)
Sector 2007 2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug. Sept. Oct.
All units
Starts 1.36 1.05 1.03 .88 .85 .83 .79
Permits 1.40 .99 1.03 .87 .86 .81 .73
Single-family units
Starts 1.05 .73 .68 .60 .62 .55 .53
Permits .98 .65 .63 .56 .55 .54 .47
Adjusted permits1 .99 .67 .65 .57 .57 .55 .48
Permit backlog2 .108 .096 .089 .083 .082 .083 .079
New homes
Sales .78 .56 .52 .47 .45 .46 .43
Months' supply3 8.40 10.24 10.55 10.82 11.29 10.87 10.56
Existing homes
Sales 4.94 4.39 4.34 4.45 4.35 4.58 4.43
Months' supply3 8.67 10.24 10.28 9.54 9.59 9.27 9.49
Multifamily units
Starts .309 .325 .350 .274 .239 .279 .260
Permits .419 .341 .400 .308 .304 .267 .260
Permit backlog2 .075 .067 .068 .062 .065 .062 .057
Mobile homes
Shipments .096 .092 .088 .081 .081 .077 .070
Condos and co-ops
Existing home sales .713 .560 .573 .577 .560 .560 .550

1. Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas.  Return to table

2. Number outstanding at end of period. Excludes permits that have expired or have been canceled, abandoned, or revoked. Not at an annual rate.  Return to table

3. At current sales rate; expressed as the ratio of seasonally adjusted inventories to seasonally adjusted sales. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of monthly figures.  Return to table

Source: Census Bureau.


Figure: Private Housing Starts and Permits

Seasonally adjusted annual rate. Line chart. 1999 to October 2008. In millions of units. The chart has 3 series. Two series, Single-family starts and Single-family adjusted permits, track together very closely through the entire chart. They begin at about 1.35 in early 9, increasing to about 1.8 by mid-2006. Then they decrease to end at about 0.55. Multifamily starts begins in early 1999 at about 0.4 and fluctuates between about .22 and .48 during the duration of the period. It ends at about 0.26.

Note: Adjusted permits equal permit issuance plus total starts outside of permit-issuing areas.

Source: Census Bureau.



Indicators of Single-Family Housing

Figure: New Single-Family Home Sales

Millions of units, annual rate. Line chart, 1999 to October 2008. The Sales agreements series starts at about 0.87 in early 1999, increases to about 1.4 by late 2005, then decreases to end at about 0.4.

Source: For sales agreements, Census Bureau; [redacted].

Figure: Existing Single-Family Home Sales

1999 to October 2008. Line chart. Pending Home sales is plotted as and index, with 2001=100. It begins in 2001 at 100, increases to about 125 by mid-2005, decreases to about 85 by mid-2008, and increases to end at about 89. Existing home sales is plotted in millions of units at an annual rate. It starts in 1999 at about 4.6, increases to about 6.3 by late 2005, decreases to about 4.3 by mid-2008, then increases to end at about 4.4.

Source: National Association of Realtors.

Figure: Inventories of New Homes and Months' Supply

1999 to October 2008. Line chart. The Inventories of new homes series is plotted in Thousands of units. It starts in early 1999 at about 285. It increases to about 575 by mid-2006, then decreases to end at about 375. The Months' supply series is plotted in months. It starts in early 1999 at about 3.5, fluctuates but stays about the same until mid-2005, then increases to end at about 10.3.

Note: Months' supply is calculated using the 3-month moving average of sales.

Source: Census Bureau.

Figure: Mortgage Rates

By percent. Line chart. 30-year conforming FRM begins in early 1999 at about 6.8. It increases to about 8.5 in mid-2000. It decreases to about 6 by late 2002, and fluctuates between about 5.2 and 6.6 until it ends at about 5.8 in December 2008. 1-year conforming ARM starts in early 1999 at about 5.7, increases to about 7.3 by mid-2000, decreases to about 3.5 by early 2004, then increases to end at about 5.2 in December 2008.

Note: The December reading is a 2-week moving average of data available through Dec. 3, 2008.

Source: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.

Figure: Prices of Existing Homes

Percent change from year earlier. Line chart, 1999 to 2008. The National S&P/Case-Shiller price index and the LoanPerformance price index track closely throughout the chart. LaonPerformance starts at about 5 in early 1999, with Case-Shiller about 7.5. They increase until late 2005 when they both reach about 15. They then both decrease. LoanPerformance ends in October 2008 at about -10, and Case-Shiller ends in Q3 2008 at about -17. The Monthly FHFA purchase-only index begins at about 5 in early 199, and increases to about 9 by mid-2005. It then decreases to end in September 2008 at about -6.

Source: For purchase-only index, Federal Housing Finance Agency; for S&P/Case-Shiller, Standard & Poor's; for LoanPerformance, First American CoreLogic.

Figure: Price of New Homes

Percent change from year earlier, 1999 to 2008Q3, line chart. Plotted as a constant-quality index, it begins in early 1999 at about 3, fluctuates but generally increases until early 2006 when it reaches about 9. It then decreases to about -8 in early 2008. It increases to end at about -2.

Source: Census Bureau.


Orders and Shipments of Nondefense Capital Goods

(Percent change; seasonally adjusted current dollars)
Category 2008
Q2 Q3 Aug. Sept. Oct.
Annual rate Monthly rate
Shipments 3.4 -.8 -3.3 1.1 -4.3
Excluding aircraft 5.9 -.3 -2.1 1.7 -3.5
Computers and peripherals -19.0 -28.7 -3.7 -1.3 2.0
Communications equipment 5.8 -10.7 -7.5 .7 -5.7
All other categories 8.8 4.0 -1.4 2.1 -3.7
Orders -6.8 -14.0 -7.8 -1.1 -4.5
Excluding aircraft 10.2 -5.2 -2.3 -3.4 -5.0
Computers and peripherals -5.3 -36.6 .7 -2.5 -5.5
Communications equipment .2 16.7 1.7 -19.4 9.6
All other categories 12.9 -3.5 -2.9 -1.9 -6.2
Memo:
Shipments of complete aircraft1 43.1 38.1 47.9 24.6 16.8

1. From Census Bureau, Current Industrial Reports; billions of dollars, annual rate.  Return to table

Source: Census Bureau.


Figure: Communications Equipment

In Billions of chained (2000) dollars, ratio scale. 2000 to October 2008, line chart. The two series, "Shipments" and "Orders" track closely throughout the chart, with the exception that Orders is about 3 points lower in late 2002. They begin in early 2000 at about 9, increasing to about 10.5 by late 2000. They decrease to about 5 by late 2002 (with Orders being lower). They then fluctuate but gradually rise to end at about 6.

Note: Shipments and orders are deflated by a price index that is derived from the BEA's quality-adjusted price indexes and uses the PPI for communications equipment for monthly interpolation.

Source: Census Bureau.

Figure: Non-High-Tech, Nontransportation Equipment

Billions of chained (2000) dollars, ratio scale. 2000 to October 2008, line chart. The two series, "Orders" and "Shipments" track closely throughout the chart. They start in early 2000 at about 45. They decrease to about 39 by early 2002, then increase to about 45 by late 2006. They decreased to end at about 44, with Orders being slightly lower at that point.

Note: Shipments and orders are deflated by the staff price indexes for the individual equipment types included in this category. Indexes are derived from the BEA's quality-adjusted price indexes.

Source: Census Bureau.

Figure: Computers and Peripherals

Line chart, 2000 to October 2008. Industrial production is plotted as a ratio, where 2000=100. It begins in early 2000 at about 95, increasing to about 110 by the end of 2000, and fluctuating but generally increasing to about 210 by the end. Real M3 shipments is plotted in Billions of chained (2000) dollars. It begins at about 8 and generally increases to end at about 18.

Note: Ratio scales. Shipments are deflated by the staff price index for computers and peripheral equipment, which is derived from the BEA's quality-adjusted price indexes.

Source: Census Bureau; FRB Industrial Production.

Figure: Medium and Heavy Trucks

2000 to October 2008, in thousands of units, ratio scale. Line chart. Net new orders of class 5-8 trucks begins at about 380 in early 2000 and fluctuates widely until mid-2002 when it is again about 380. It then generally increases until mid-2006 when it reaches about 1000. It then decreases to about 300 by early 2007, increased to about 460 by early 2008, and decreases to end at about 230. Sales of class 4-8 trucks begins in early 2000 at about 520, decreased to about 300 by early 2003, increases to about 520 by early 2007, and decreases to end at about 250.

Note: Annual rate, FRB seasonals.

Source: For sales, Ward's Communications; for orders, ACT Research.


Fundamentals of Equipment and Software Investment

Figure: Real Business Output

1990 to 2008Q3, line chart, by 4-quarter percent change. There are 2 shaded bars, the first between mid-1990 and early 1991, and the second between early 2001 and late 2001. There is a vertical tripwire labeled "NBER peak" in late 2007. The series begins in early 1990 at about 2.5. It decreases to about -2 by early 1991. It increases to about 5.2 by late 1992 and fluctuates but remains at about that level until early 2000. It then decreases to about -0.5 by late 2001, then increases to about 5 by mid-2004. It then decreases to end at about 0.25.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (1990:Q3-1991:Q1 and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER (December 2007).

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure: User Cost of Capital

1990 to 2008, line chart, 4-quarter percent change. There are 2 shaded bars, the first between mid-1990 and early 1991, and the second between early 2001 and late 2001. There is a vertical tripwire labeled "NBER peak" in late 2007. There are 2 series, High-tech and Non-high-tech, which track closely throughout the chart. Non-high-tech begins in 1990 at about -3, fluctuating widely but increasing to about 12 by 1994. It then fluctuates widely but generally decreases to about -9 by 2003. It then increases to end at about 3. High-tech is usually about 5 percent lower than non-high-tech at any given point.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (1990:Q3-1991:Q1 and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER (December 2007).

Source: Staff Calculation.

Figure: Corporate Bond Yields

Line chart, 1990 to 2008, by percent. There are 2 shaded bars, the first between mid-1990 and early 1991, and the second between early 2001 and late 2001. There is a vertical tripwire labeled "NBER peak" in late 2007. There are 2 series, 10-year high-yield and 10-year BBB. 10-year high-yield begins in 1990 at about 14, decreases to about 9 by 1997, increases to about 13 by 2000, decreases to about 8 by 2004, and increases to end at about 18. 10-year BBB is generally 2-4 percent lower at any given point, and ends at about 10.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (1990:Q3-1991:Q1 and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER (December 2007).

Note: End-of-month. December value as of Dec. 9.

Source: Merrill Lynch.

Figure: NFIB: Survey on Loan Availability

1990 to November 2008, line chart, by percent. There are 2 shaded bars, the first between mid-1990 and early 1991, and the second between early 2001 and late 2001. There is a vertical tripwire labeled "NBER peak" in late 2007. There are 2 series, Credit expected to be tighter, and Credit more difficult to obtain. Credit expected to be tighter starts at about 8 in 1990, and increases to about 13 by early 1991. It then decreases to about 1 by 1997, and increases to end at about 15. Credit more difficult to obtain starts at about 7 in early 1990, increases to about 12.5 by early 2991, decreases to about 0 by 1998, then fluctuates but generally increases to end at about 8.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (1990:Q3-1991:Q1 and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER (December 2007).

Note: Of borrowers who sought credit in the past three months, the proportion that reported (expected) more difficulty in obtaining credit less the proportion that reported (expected) more ease in obtaining credit. Seasonally adjusted.

Source: National Federation of Independent Business.

Figure: Surveys of Business Conditions

1990 to November 2008, line chart. Plotted as Diffusion Index. There are 2 shaded bars, the first between mid-1990 and early 1991, and the second between early 2001 and late 2001. There is a vertical tripwire labeled "NBER peak" in late 2007. There are 2 series, ISM and Philadelphia Fed. The two series track each other closely, with the Philadelphia Fed series being a bit more volatile in its index changes. The ISM series begins at about 45 in early 1990, decreases to about 40 by late 1990, then increases to about 50 by mid 1991. It then fluctuates between about 40 and 60 until 2008, and ends at about 37.

Note: Shaded bars indicate periods of business recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (1990:Q3-1991:Q1 and 2001:Q1-2001:Q4). The NBER peak is the last business cycle peak as defined by the NBER (December 2007).

Source: Manufacturing ISM Report on Business; Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey.


Nonresidential Construction and Indicators

(All spending series are seasonally adjusted at an annual rate; nominal CPIP deflated by BEA prices through Q2 and by staff projection thereafter)

Figure: Total Structures

In Billions of chained (2000) dollars, line chart, 1999 to October 2008. The chart begins in early 1999 at about 260, increases to about 290 by mid-2000, then decreases to about 205 by mid-2005. It then increases to end at about 277.

Source: Census Bureau.

Figure: Office, Commercial, and Other

In Billions of chained (2000) dollars, 1999 to October 2008. Line chart. Office begins in early 1999 at about 48, increases to about 55 by early 2001, then decreases to about 28 by early 2003. It then increases to end at about 38. Commercial begins at about 58 in early 199, increases to about 65 by early 2001, then decreases to about 50 by early 2003. It then remains about at that level and ends at about 52. Other starts at about 70 in early 1999, decreases to about 62 by late 2005, then increases to end at about 85.

Note: Other consists of structures for religious organizations, education, lodging, amusement and recreation, transportation, and health care.

Source: Census Bureau.

Figure: Manufacturing and Power & Communication

In Billions of chained (2000) dollars, line chart, 1999 to October 2008. Power & communication starts at about 40 in early 1999, increases to about 60 by early 2002, decreases to about 30 by mid-2004, and increases to end at about 55. Manufacturing starts at about 40 in early 1999, decreases to about 35 by early 2000, increases to about 40 by early 2001, decreases to about 20 by early 2003, then increases to end at about 48.

Source: Census Bureau.

Figure: Architectural Billings and Nonresidential Construction Employment

1999 to 2008, line chart. Billings is plotted as a diffusion index. It starts in early 1999 at about 55, decreases to about 42 by early 2002, increases to about 58 by early 2006, then decreases to end at about 43 in October 2008. Change in employment is plotted as percent. It starts in early 2001 at zero, decreases in about -0.8 by mid-2002, increases to about 0.6 by mid-2006, then decreases to end at about -1 in November 2008.

Note: Both series are 3-month moving averages. Employment consists of industrial, commercial, and specialty trade construction.

Source: For billings, American Institute of Architects; for employment, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure: Vacancy Rates

1999 to 2008 Q3, by percent, line chart. Office starts at about 9.5 in early 1999, increases to about 17 by 2003, then decreases to end at about 14. Industrial starts at about 8 in early 199, increases to about 11.5 by early 2004, decreases to about 9.5 by mid-2007, and increases to end at about 11. Retail starts at about 9 in early 1999, decreases to about 7.5 by late 2005, and increases to end at about 9.5.

Note: Industrial space includes both manufacturing structures and warehouses.

Source: Torto Wheaton Research.

Figure: Drilling and Mining Indicators

1999 to 2008, line chart. Footage drilled is plotted in millions of feet. It begins at about 8 in early 199, increases to about 16 by mid-2001, decreases to about 13 by early 2002, then increases to end at about 27 in October 2008. Drilling rigs is plotted by number. It starts at about 600 in early 1999, increases to about 1300 by mid-2001, decreases to about 800 by early 2002, then increases to end at about 1850 in December 2008.

Note: The December readings for drilling rigs are based on data through December 5, 2008. Both series are seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.

Source: For footage drilled, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency; for drilling rigs, Baker Hughes.


Nonfarm Inventory Investment

(Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Measure and sector 2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug. Sept. Oct.
Real inventory investment (chained 2000 dollars)
Total nonfarm business -17.9 -55.1 -29.5 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Motor vehicles -15.3 -10.9 9.9 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Nonfarm ex. motor vehicles -2.6 -44.2 -39.3 n.a. n.a. n.a.
Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts 5.6 -24.1 -17.7 -5.9 -42.5e n.a.
Manufacturing 13.7 -26.0 -26.4 -5.1 -47.5e n.a.
Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts .0 4.9 10.4 14.9 -.9e n.a.
Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts -8.2 -3.1 -1.7 -15.6 5.9   n.a.
Book-value inventory investment (current dollars)
Manufacturing and trade ex. wholesale and retail motor vehicles and parts 95.8 97.5 46.6 65.0 -57.8 n.a.
Manufacturing 60.5 39.3 10.7 44.5 -53.8 -37.9
Wholesale trade ex. motor vehicles & parts 39.0 48.5 24.8 27.6 -21.0 -54.9
Retail trade ex. motor vehicles & parts -3.7 9.6 11.2 -7.1 17.0 n.a.

n.a. Not available.

e Staff estimate of real inventory investment based on revised book-value data.  Return to table

Source: For real inventory investment, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; for book-value data, Census Bureau.


Figure: Inventory Ratios ex. Motor Vehicles

In Months, 2000 to 2008. Line chart. Staff flow-of-goods system begins in early 2000 at about 1.77, fluctuates but remains about the same until early 2002. It then decreases to about 1.57 by early 2008 before increasing to end at about 1.61 in October 2008. Census book-value data begins in early 2000 at about 1.35, increases to about 1.42 by mid-2001, decreases to about 1.15 by mid-2008, and increases to end at about 1.22 in September 2008.

Note: Flow-of-goods system covers total industry ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to consumption. Census data cover manufacturing and trade ex. motor vehicles and parts, and inventories are relative to sales.

Source: Census Bureau; staff calculation.

Figure: ISM Customers' Inventories: Manufacturing

As Index, 2000 to November 2008, line chart. The series starts in early 2000 at about 47. It increases to about 56 by early 2001, then decreases to about 38 by mid-2002. It then fluctuates by generally increases to end at about 55.

Note: A number above 50 indicates inventories are "too high."

Source: Manufacturing ISM Report on Business.



Federal Government Budget

(Unified basis; adjusted for payment-timing shifts and financial transactions; data from Monthly Treasury Statement)

Figure: Surplus or Deficit (-)
12-month moving sum
Billions of dollars
Period Surplus or Deficit Including TARP
January 1995 -198.08 ND
February 1995 -192.61 ND
March 1995 -203.00 ND
April 1995 -188.00 ND
May 1995 -190.43 ND
June 1995 -188.93 ND
July 1995 -184.81 ND
August 1995 -192.32 ND
September 1995 -189.06 ND
October 1995 -181.31 ND
November 1995 -181.97 ND
December 1995 -169.71 ND
January 1996 -165.01 ND
February 1996 -169.01 ND
March 1996 -173.48 ND
April 1996 -142.02 ND
May 1996 -146.38 ND
June 1996 -138.77 ND
July 1996 -136.17 ND
August 1996 -134.43 ND
September 1996 -124.56 ND
October 1996 -132.27 ND
November 1996 -127.92 ND
December 1996 -126.69 ND
January 1997 -123.81 ND
February 1997 -124.35 ND
March 1997 -107.86 ND
April 1997 -87.28 ND
May 1997 -84.11 ND
June 1997 -69.12 ND
July 1997 -67.99 ND
August 1997 -62.30 ND
September 1997 -47.43 ND
October 1997 -35.04 ND
November 1997 -26.85 ND
December 1997 -18.69 ND
January 1998 -6.30 ND
February 1998 -3.26 ND
March 1998 4.97 ND
April 1998 33.68 ND
May 1998 36.31 ND
June 1998 46.93 ND
July 1998 57.44 ND
August 1998 65.80 ND
September 1998 63.50 ND
October 1998 62.66 ND
November 1998 62.14 ND
December 1998 70.96 ND
January 1999 79.26 ND
February 1999 79.19 ND
March 1999 79.19 ND
April 1999 80.37 ND
May 1999 85.61 ND
June 1999 87.99 ND
July 1999 87.23 ND
August 1999 94.22 ND
September 1999 112.74 ND
October 1999 114.94 ND
November 1999 115.50 ND
December 1999 126.86 ND
January 2000 144.90 ND
February 2000 144.64 ND
March 2000 141.73 ND
April 2000 169.73 ND
May 2000 199.39 ND
June 2000 211.43 ND
July 2000 223.33 ND
August 2000 224.84 ND
September 2000 243.21 ND
October 2000 248.24 ND
November 2000 250.56 ND
December 2000 250.58 ND
January 2001 265.61 ND
February 2001 259.01 ND
March 2001 244.50 ND
April 2001 274.25 ND
May 2001 250.11 ND
June 2001 226.81 ND
July 2001 211.27 ND
August 2001 180.04 ND
September 2001 140.85 ND
October 2001 132.11 ND
November 2001 114.03 ND
December 2001 106.03 ND
January 2002 60.72 ND
February 2002 33.81 ND
March 2002 9.94 ND
April 2002 -102.80 ND
May 2002 -144.49 ND
June 2002 -168.49 ND
July 2002 -178.18 ND
August 2002 -179.75 ND
September 2002 -185.16 ND
October 2002 -209.72 ND
November 2002 -215.40 ND
December 2002 -245.24 ND
January 2003 -255.56 ND
February 2003 -275.33 ND
March 2003 -281.22 ND
April 2003 -297.32 ND
May 2003 -304.90 ND
June 2003 -313.88 ND
July 2003 -338.43 ND
August 2003 -359.60 ND
September 2003 -372.78 ND
October 2003 -382.11 ND
November 2003 -389.76 ND
December 2003 -399.76 ND
January 2004 -412.20 ND
February 2004 -425.31 ND
March 2004 -427.80 ND
April 2004 -448.74 ND
May 2004 -446.81 ND
June 2004 -436.48 ND
July 2004 -439.19 ND
August 2004 -428.56 ND
September 2004 -415.06 ND
October 2004 -414.13 ND
November 2004 -416.33 ND
December 2004 -400.30 ND
January 2005 -403.45 ND
February 2005 -408.04 ND
March 2005 -406.04 ND
April 2005 -365.35 ND
May 2005 -339.56 ND
June 2005 -336.27 ND
July 2005 -333.07 ND
August 2005 -330.42 ND
September 2005 -312.66 ND
October 2005 -310.82 ND
November 2005 -336.61 ND
December 2005 -321.96 ND
January 2006 -310.32 ND
February 2006 -315.98 ND
March 2006 -315.76 ND
April 2006 -281.97 ND
May 2006 -275.28 ND
June 2006 -262.64 ND
July 2006 -257.10 ND
August 2006 -270.66 ND
September 2006 -259.21 ND
October 2006 -251.75 ND
November 2006 -241.59 ND
December 2006 -228.57 ND
January 2007 -206.49 ND
February 2007 -207.47 ND
March 2007 -217.75 ND
April 2007 -159.90 ND
May 2007 -184.20 ND
June 2007 -176.70 ND
July 2007 -184.56 ND
August 2007 -188.61 ND
September 2007 -184.16 ND
October 2007 -186.65 ND
November 2007 -192.40 ND
December 2007 -193.12 ND
January 2008 -213.69 ND
February 2008 -239.75 ND
March 2008 -236.42 ND
April 2008 -239.95 ND
May 2008 -318.06 ND
June 2008 -348.52 ND
July 2008 -381.16 ND
August 2008 -402.62 ND
September 2008 -437.91 ND
October 2008 -483.63 -598.63
November 2008 -502.91 -694.38

Note: Thin line includes deficit effects of transactions related to TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) and government-sponsored enterprise equity purchase programs.


Figure: Outlays and Receipts
12-month moving sum
Percent change from year earlier
Period Outlays Receipts
January 1995 2.68 8.56
February 1995 2.82 8.69
March 1995 3.66 7.76
April 1995 4.56 8.93
May 1995 4.87 8.35
June 1995 5.26 8.31
July 1995 5.34 8.58
August 1995 5.49 7.61
September 1995 5.50 7.48
October 1995 5.06 7.11
November 1995 5.01 6.91
December 1995 4.28 7.03
January 1996 3.97 7.15
February 1996 4.42 6.90
March 1996 3.80 6.67
April 1996 3.60 7.59
May 1996 3.22 7.01
June 1996 2.43 6.52
July 1996 2.72 6.71
August 1996 2.37 7.02
September 1996 2.39 7.49
October 1996 3.22 7.27
November 1996 3.25 7.65
December 1996 4.15 7.81
January 1997 4.03 7.50
February 1997 3.39 7.03
March 1997 3.49 8.68
April 1997 3.35 7.54
May 1997 3.16 7.87
June 1997 3.81 9.07
July 1997 3.51 8.59
August 1997 3.26 8.58
September 1997 3.11 8.69
October 1997 2.53 9.44
November 1997 2.15 9.24
December 1997 2.29 9.81
January 1998 1.95 10.04
February 1998 2.15 10.49
March 1998 2.09 9.75
April 1998 2.04 10.07
May 1998 1.84 9.81
June 1998 1.68 9.23
July 1998 1.43 9.54
August 1998 1.67 9.94
September 1998 2.22 9.31
October 1998 2.13 8.30
November 1998 2.96 8.58
December 1998 2.36 7.93
January 1999 2.44 7.70
February 1999 2.25 7.29
March 1999 2.91 7.41
April 1999 2.93 5.65
May 1999 2.93 5.80
June 1999 3.25 5.58
July 1999 3.43 5.06
August 1999 3.67 5.19
September 1999 2.86 5.61
October 1999 2.98 5.90
November 1999 2.71 5.68
December 1999 3.26 6.33
January 2000 3.20 6.79
February 2000 3.66 7.22
March 2000 3.37 6.75
April 2000 3.18 8.07
May 2000 4.33 10.52
June 2000 3.96 10.66
July 2000 3.80 11.20
August 2000 4.05 11.07
September 2000 4.20 11.10
October 2000 4.56 11.57
November 2000 4.26 11.35
December 2000 3.55 9.96
January 2001 4.41 10.51
February 2001 4.33 10.06
March 2001 4.36 9.47
April 2001 4.70 9.73
May 2001 3.87 6.05
June 2001 4.31 4.63
July 2001 4.82 3.68
August 2001 5.09 2.29
September 2001 5.30 -0.40
October 2001 5.17 -1.15
November 2001 5.87 -1.53
December 2001 6.11 -1.72
January 2002 6.16 -4.51
February 2002 6.46 -5.20
March 2002 6.21 -5.86
April 2002 6.81 -11.98
May 2002 7.61 -12.22
June 2002 7.15 -12.69
July 2002 7.49 -12.11
August 2002 6.79 -11.34
September 2002 7.26 -9.41
October 2002 7.54 -9.91
November 2002 6.89 -9.86
December 2002 7.58 -10.31
January 2003 7.06 -9.14
February 2003 6.84 -8.99
March 2003 7.34 -7.64
April 2003 6.84 -3.28
May 2003 6.26 -2.01
June 2003 7.04 -0.34
July 2003 6.85 -1.29
August 2003 7.20 -1.98
September 2003 7.38 -2.14
October 2003 7.36 -1.28
November 2003 7.47 -1.26
December 2003 7.27 -0.32
January 2004 7.34 -0.33
February 2004 7.51 0.29
March 2004 7.43 0.45
April 2004 7.40 0.18
May 2004 7.45 0.80
June 2004 6.98 1.40
July 2004 6.93 2.62
August 2004 6.99 4.54
September 2004 6.20 5.13
October 2004 5.49 4.88
November 2004 6.06 5.90
December 2004 5.98 7.28
January 2005 6.43 8.39
February 2005 6.28 8.73
March 2005 6.23 8.91
April 2005 6.51 12.78
May 2005 6.55 14.09
June 2005 6.78 13.88
July 2005 6.35 13.63
August 2005 6.41 13.14
September 2005 7.20 14.23
October 2005 7.92 15.16
November 2005 8.36 14.39
December 2005 8.24 14.03
January 2006 8.00 14.46
February 2006 8.13 14.55
March 2006 8.14 14.40
April 2006 7.53 13.00
May 2006 8.40 12.90
June 2006 8.33 13.21
July 2006 8.63 13.64
August 2006 8.70 12.89
September 2006 8.61 12.36
October 2006 8.31 12.23
November 2006 6.89 12.33
December 2006 6.60 11.82
January 2007 6.26 11.80
February 2007 5.85 11.53
March 2007 5.69 10.84
April 2007 5.95 12.02
May 2007 4.44 8.88
June 2007 3.95 8.03
July 2007 4.17 7.67
August 2007 3.87 7.75
September 2007 2.99 6.42
October 2007 3.06 6.06
November 2007 3.59 5.97
December 2007 4.06 5.88
January 2008 4.29 4.36
February 2008 4.76 3.86
March 2008 4.25 3.88
April 2008 4.71 1.88
May 2008 6.27 1.45
June 2008 6.60 0.31
July 2008 6.70 -0.49
August 2008 6.72 -1.12
September 2008 7.62 -1.71
October 2008 8.29 -2.63
November 2008 8.33 -3.07

Recent Federal Outlays and Receipts
(Billions of dollars except as noted)
Function or source October-November 12 months ending in November
2007 2008 Percent
change
2007 2008 Percent
change
Outlays 464.4 509.8 9.8 2,775.7 3,006.9 8.3
Net interest 39.8 41.7 4.8 241.7 250.8 3.8
National defense 109.3 117.0 7.1 569.8 632.2 10.9
Major transfers1 248.5 271.5 9.2 1,531.4 1,665.0 8.7
Other 66.8 79.6 19.2 432.8 459.0 6.1
  
Receipts 329.2 309.6 -6.0 2,583.3 2,504.0 -3.1
Individual income and payroll taxes 284.7 275.2 -3.3 2,005.2 1,987.0 -.9
Corporate income taxes 8.7 2.1 -76.0 365.1 297.8 -18.4
Other 35.9 32.4 -9.7 213.0 219.3 2.9
  
Surplus or deficit (-) -135.2 -200.2 -192.4 -502.9
Memo:
Unadjusted surplus or deficit (-) -155.1 -401.6 -194.2 -701.3

1. Includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and income security programs.  Return to table

… Not applicable.


State and Local Indicators

Figure: Real Spending on Consumption & Investment

1998 to 2008Q3, by Percent change, annual rate. Line Chart. Spending starts at about 1.8 in early 1998, increases to about 8 by late 1998, then fluctuates widely but generally decreases until late 2004 when it reaches about -1. It then fluctuates by generally increases to end at about 1. The 4-quarter moving average tracks the same general path as the Spending series, but fluctuates much less widely. It starts and ends at the same values as the Spending series.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; national income and product accounts.

Figure: Net Change in Employment

Thousands of jobs, monthly average. 1998 to 2008Q4. Bar chart. The values for the chart are approximately: 1998: 26. 1999: 40. 200: 25. 2001: 45. 2002: 18. 2003: -1. 2004: 15. 2005: 14. 2006: 18. 2007: 20. 2008 first half: 19. 2008Q3: 9. 2008Q4: 15.

Note: Q4 is the average of October and November.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation.

Figure: Real Construction

Annual rate, Billions of chained (2000) dollars. 1998 to October 2008, line chart. The series begins at about 154 in early 1998, increases to about 187 by early 2002, decreases to about 170 by early 2005, and increases to end at about 184.

Note: Nominal CPIP deflated by BEA prices through Q3 and by a staff projection thereafter.

Source: Census Bureau, Construction Spending.

Figure: Net Saving

1988 to 2008Q3. By Percent of nominal GDP, line chart. The series starts at about 0.2 in 1988, fluctuates and then decreases to about -0.2 by 1993, then increases to about 0.7 by 1999, then decreases to about -0.55 by 2003, then increases to about 0.5 by 2006, then decreases to end at about -0.8.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; national income and product accounts.

Figure: State Revenues

By Percent change from year earlier, 1998 to 2008Q2, line chart. Both series are a 4-quarter moving average. Total revenues start at about 6 in early 1998, fluctuate but generally increase until mid-2000 when they reach about 10. They then decrease to about -4 by mid-2002, then increases to about 12 by mid-2005, then decrease to end at about 3. Individual and corporate income taxes begin at about 8 in early 1998, fluctuate but generally increase to about 13 by mid-2000, decrease to about -13 by early 2002, increase to about 17 by early 2006, then decrease to end at about 4.

Source: Census Bureau, Quarterly Summary of State and Local Government Tax Revenue.

Figure: Local Revenues

Percent change from year earlier as a 4-quarter moving average. Line chart, 1998 to 2008 Q2. Property taxes begin at about 4 in early 1998, increasing to about 11 by late 2002, decrease to about 2.5 by early 2003, increase to about 9 by early 2006, then decrease to end at about 4. Total revenues begin at about 5.5 in early 1998, decrease to about 1.5 by mid-1999, the fluctuate widely but generally increase to about 9 by mid-2005, then decrease to end at about 4.

Source: Census Bureau, Quarterly Summary of State and Local Government Tax Revenue.


Price Measures

(Percent change)
Measures 12-month change 3-month change 1-month change
Oct. 2007 Oct. 2008 Annual rate Monthly rate
July 2008 Oct. 2008 Sept. 2008 Oct. 2008
CPI
Total 3.5 3.7 10.6 -4.4 .0 -1.0
Food 4.4 6.3 8.4 5.8 .6 .3
Energy 14.5 11.5 79.4 -43.1 -1.9 -8.6
Ex. food and energy 2.2 2.2 3.5 1.1 .1 -.1
Core goods -.5 .1 1.7 -1.9 -.2 -.4
Core services 3.2 3.0 4.1 2.2 .3 .0
Shelter 3.3 2.2 2.9 1.6 .3 .0
Other services 3.1 4.2 6.0 3.0 .2 .0
  
Chained CPI (n.s.a.) 1 3.2 3.3
Ex. food and energy 1 1.8 1.9
PCE prices
Total 3.1 3.2 7.4 -1.8 .1 -.6
Food and beverages 4.2 6.2 7.5 6.5 .7 .4
Energy 15.6 11.8 80.7 -43.6 -1.8 -8.8
Ex. food and energy 2.1 2.1 2.7 1.4 .2 .0
Core goods -.9 .2 .5 -.6 .0 -.2
Core services 3.3 2.8 3.6 2.1 .2 .1
Housing services 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.0 .3 .1
Other services 3.4 2.9 4.0 2.2 .2 .1
  
Core market-based 1.7 2.0 2.7 1.5 .2 .0
Core non-market-based 4.1 2.6 3.1 1.0 .1 -.1
PPI
Total finished goods 6.1 5.2 18.9 -15.1 -.4 -2.8
Food 7.1 6.5 10.4 1.3 .2 -.2
Energy 16.3 5.5 71.8 -57.3 -2.9 -12.8
Ex. food and energy 2.6 4.4 4.9 4.4 .4 .4
Core consumer goods 2.9 4.7 5.4 4.1 .5 .3
Capital equipment 2.1 4.1 4.8 4.2 .5 .5
  
Intermediate materials 5.7 10.2 34.3 -21.6 -1.2 -3.9
Ex. food and energy 2.1 9.7 21.0 -1.7 -.3 -1.7
Crude materials 26.8 -1.4 75.7 -81.0 -7.9 -18.6
Ex. food and energy 18.1 -3.1 26.2 -70.3 -9.4 -17.0

1. Higher-frequency figures are not applicable for data that are not seasonally adjusted.  Return to table

… Not applicable.

Source: For consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Consumer Prices

(12-month change except as noted)

Figure: PCE Prices
Percent
Period Core PCE Total PCE
January 2000 1.69 2.37
February 2000 1.85 2.69
March 2000 2.02 3.03
April 2000 1.80 2.48
May 2000 1.75 2.42
June 2000 1.68 2.68
July 2000 1.62 2.60
August 2000 1.64 2.33
September 2000 1.58 2.38
October 2000 1.50 2.27
November 2000 1.57 2.35
December 2000 1.51 2.24
January 2001 1.60 2.39
February 2001 1.67 2.27
March 2001 1.60 1.93
April 2001 1.73 2.23
May 2001 1.73 2.49
June 2001 2.00 2.41
July 2001 2.18 2.20
August 2001 2.21 2.31
September 2001 1.47 1.64
October 2001 2.20 1.98
November 2001 2.30 1.78
December 2001 2.17 1.46
January 2002 1.88 1.13
February 2002 1.83 1.09
March 2002 1.80 1.32
April 2002 1.82 1.47
May 2002 1.84 1.15
June 2002 1.69 1.03
July 2002 1.56 1.23
August 2002 1.71 1.43
September 2002 2.41 1.88
October 2002 1.65 1.62
November 2002 1.46 1.75
December 2002 1.56 2.00
January 2003 1.55 2.06
February 2003 1.47 2.40
March 2003 1.51 2.51
April 2003 1.35 1.84
May 2003 1.40 1.76
June 2003 1.36 1.77
July 2003 1.43 1.84
August 2003 1.33 1.94
September 2003 1.27 2.03
October 2003 1.42 1.93
November 2003 1.41 1.79
December 2003 1.49 1.96
January 2004 1.65 2.11
February 2004 1.77 2.00
March 2004 1.89 1.90
April 2004 2.05 2.35
May 2004 2.09 2.93
June 2004 2.21 3.11
July 2004 2.12 2.93
August 2004 2.06 2.66
September 2004 2.12 2.50
October 2004 2.15 2.99
November 2004 2.31 3.26
December 2004 2.24 3.01
January 2005 2.29 2.91
February 2005 2.23 2.78
March 2005 2.24 2.77
April 2005 2.10 2.90
May 2005 2.17 2.40
June 2005 2.06 2.20
July 2005 2.04 2.61
August 2005 2.07 3.02
September 2005 2.13 3.93
October 2005 2.15 3.59
November 2005 2.14 3.09
December 2005 2.16 3.09
January 2006 2.05 3.27
February 2006 2.04 3.05
March 2006 2.08 2.92
April 2006 2.23 3.01
May 2006 2.21 3.30
June 2006 2.37 3.48
July 2006 2.37 3.38
August 2006 2.51 3.24
September 2006 2.48 1.99
October 2006 2.41 1.53
November 2006 2.21 1.88
December 2006 2.24 2.29
January 2007 2.39 2.08
February 2007 2.42 2.31
March 2007 2.23 2.53
April 2007 2.14 2.37
May 2007 2.06 2.43
June 2007 2.01 2.40
July 2007 2.03 2.21
August 2007 1.96 1.96
September 2007 2.05 2.56
October 2007 2.11 3.15
November 2007 2.22 3.67
December 2007 2.28 3.55
January 2008 2.18 3.61
February 2008 2.13 3.49
March 2008 2.23 3.43
April 2008 2.19 3.40
May 2008 2.24 3.52
June 2008 2.34 4.08
July 2008 2.38 4.47
August 2008 2.38 4.36
September 2008 2.25 4.07
October 2008 2.01 3.20

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Figure: CPI and PCE ex. Food and Energy
Percent
Period PCE CPI CPI chained
January 2000 1.69 2.00 ND
February 2000 1.85 2.16 ND
March 2000 2.02 2.44 ND
April 2000 1.80 2.32 ND
May 2000 1.75 2.43 ND
June 2000 1.68 2.49 ND
July 2000 1.62 2.49 ND
August 2000 1.64 2.60 ND
September 2000 1.58 2.59 ND
October 2000 1.50 2.52 ND
November 2000 1.57 2.58 ND
December 2000 1.51 2.58 1.90
January 2001 1.60 2.63 1.89
February 2001 1.67 2.73 1.99
March 2001 1.60 2.66 1.98
April 2001 1.73 2.60 1.88
May 2001 1.73 2.54 1.88
June 2001 2.00 2.71 2.17
July 2001 2.18 2.70 2.07
August 2001 2.21 2.70 2.17
September 2001 1.47 2.63 1.96
October 2001 2.20 2.63 1.96
November 2001 2.30 2.79 2.05
December 2001 2.17 2.74 2.16
January 2002 1.88 2.56 2.05
February 2002 1.83 2.60 2.04
March 2002 1.80 2.43 1.94
April 2002 1.82 2.53 2.03
May 2002 1.84 2.53 2.13
June 2002 1.69 2.26 1.64
July 2002 1.56 2.20 1.74
August 2002 1.71 2.36 1.73
September 2002 2.41 2.24 1.92
October 2002 1.65 2.24 1.82
November 2002 1.46 1.97 1.63
December 2002 1.56 1.92 1.63
January 2003 1.55 1.91 1.63
February 2003 1.47 1.74 1.34
March 2003 1.51 1.69 1.24
April 2003 1.35 1.47 1.14
May 2003 1.40 1.58 1.14
June 2003 1.36 1.53 1.24
July 2003 1.43 1.52 1.14
August 2003 1.33 1.31 1.04
September 2003 1.27 1.20 0.85
October 2003 1.42 1.30 0.94
November 2003 1.41 1.09 0.85
December 2003 1.49 1.15 0.76
January 2004 1.65 1.15 0.94
February 2004 1.77 1.25 1.22
March 2004 1.89 1.61 1.50
April 2004 2.05 1.76 1.69
May 2004 2.09 1.71 1.69
June 2004 2.21 1.87 1.69
July 2004 2.12 1.76 1.69
August 2004 2.06 1.71 1.59
September 2004 2.12 1.96 1.87
October 2004 2.15 2.01 1.96
November 2004 2.31 2.17 2.15
December 2004 2.24 2.17 2.25
January 2005 2.29 2.27 2.15
February 2005 2.23 2.36 2.14
March 2005 2.24 2.35 1.94
April 2005 2.10 2.24 1.94
May 2005 2.17 2.19 1.85
June 2005 2.06 2.03 1.85
July 2005 2.04 2.14 1.75
August 2005 2.07 2.13 1.85
September 2005 2.13 1.98 1.75
October 2005 2.15 2.07 1.74
November 2005 2.14 2.12 1.74
December 2005 2.16 2.17 1.83
January 2006 2.05 2.12 1.74
February 2006 2.04 2.06 1.82
March 2006 2.08 2.09 2.00
April 2006 2.23 2.29 2.08
May 2006 2.21 2.44 2.18
June 2006 2.37 2.64 2.45
July 2006 2.37 2.69 2.54
August 2006 2.51 2.84 2.63
September 2006 2.48 2.93 2.62
October 2006 2.41 2.72 2.43
November 2006 2.21 2.62 2.25
December 2006 2.24 2.57 2.16
January 2007 2.39 2.67 2.29
February 2007 2.42 2.71 2.26
March 2007 2.23 2.45 2.10
April 2007 2.14 2.34 2.02
May 2007 2.06 2.24 1.98
June 2007 2.01 2.22 1.82
July 2007 2.03 2.21 1.77
August 2007 1.96 2.13 1.65
September 2007 2.05 2.14 1.65
October 2007 2.11 2.17 1.80
November 2007 2.22 2.33 2.02
December 2007 2.28 2.44 2.12
January 2008 2.18 2.47 2.16
February 2008 2.13 2.27 1.98
March 2008 2.23 2.35 2.06
April 2008 2.19 2.26 1.94
May 2008 2.24 2.31 2.02
June 2008 2.34 2.41 2.09
July 2008 2.38 2.51 2.21
August 2008 2.38 2.54 2.25
September 2008 2.25 2.47 2.17
October 2008 2.01 2.22 1.91

Source: For CPI, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for PCE, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Figure: PCE excluding Food and Energy
Percent
Period PCE Market-based components
January 2000 1.69 1.21
February 2000 1.85 1.37
March 2000 2.02 1.54
April 2000 1.80 1.28
May 2000 1.75 1.27
June 2000 1.68 1.21
July 2000 1.62 1.34
August 2000 1.64 1.52
September 2000 1.58 1.49
October 2000 1.50 1.46
November 2000 1.57 1.52
December 2000 1.51 1.43
January 2001 1.60 1.47
February 2001 1.67 1.57
March 2001 1.60 1.49
April 2001 1.73 1.61
May 2001 1.73 1.54
June 2001 2.00 1.81
July 2001 2.18 1.85
August 2001 2.21 1.75
September 2001 1.47 1.66
October 2001 2.20 1.66
November 2001 2.30 1.84
December 2001 2.17 1.77
January 2002 1.88 1.50
February 2002 1.83 1.46
March 2002 1.80 1.41
April 2002 1.82 1.52
May 2002 1.84 1.59
June 2002 1.69 1.47
July 2002 1.56 1.33
August 2002 1.71 1.53
September 2002 2.41 1.59
October 2002 1.65 1.50
November 2002 1.46 1.27
December 2002 1.56 1.35
January 2003 1.55 1.37
February 2003 1.47 1.27
March 2003 1.51 1.30
April 2003 1.35 1.13
May 2003 1.40 1.19
June 2003 1.36 1.13
July 2003 1.43 1.22
August 2003 1.33 1.07
September 2003 1.27 0.95
October 2003 1.42 1.08
November 2003 1.41 0.96
December 2003 1.49 1.02
January 2004 1.65 1.15
February 2004 1.77 1.28
March 2004 1.89 1.40
April 2004 2.05 1.47
May 2004 2.09 1.47
June 2004 2.21 1.58
July 2004 2.12 1.46
August 2004 2.06 1.39
September 2004 2.12 1.45
October 2004 2.15 1.50
November 2004 2.31 1.73
December 2004 2.24 1.68
January 2005 2.29 1.75
February 2005 2.23 1.74
March 2005 2.24 1.73
April 2005 2.10 1.64
May 2005 2.17 1.72
June 2005 2.06 1.62
July 2005 2.04 1.61
August 2005 2.07 1.66
September 2005 2.13 1.74
October 2005 2.15 1.71
November 2005 2.14 1.72
December 2005 2.16 1.76
January 2006 2.05 1.63
February 2006 2.04 1.59
March 2006 2.08 1.67
April 2006 2.23 1.81
May 2006 2.21 1.86
June 2006 2.37 2.02
July 2006 2.37 2.03
August 2006 2.51 2.18
September 2006 2.48 2.17
October 2006 2.41 2.14
November 2006 2.21 1.92
December 2006 2.24 1.91
January 2007 2.39 2.14
February 2007 2.42 2.21
March 2007 2.23 1.98
April 2007 2.14 1.89
May 2007 2.06 1.72
June 2007 2.01 1.66
July 2007 2.03 1.67
August 2007 1.96 1.54
September 2007 2.05 1.58
October 2007 2.11 1.65
November 2007 2.22 1.79
December 2007 2.28 1.89
January 2008 2.18 1.77
February 2008 2.13 1.69
March 2008 2.23 1.74
April 2008 2.19 1.78
May 2008 2.24 1.86
June 2008 2.34 1.99
July 2008 2.38 2.11
August 2008 2.38 2.19
September 2008 2.25 2.13
October 2008 2.01 1.92

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Figure: PCE Goods and Services
Percent
Period Goods ex. food and energy Services ex. energy
January 2000 -0.73 2.79
February 2000 -0.50 2.91
March 2000 0.19 2.85
April 2000 -0.15 2.69
May 2000 -0.08 2.58
June 2000 -0.27 2.57
July 2000 -0.24 2.48
August 2000 -0.29 2.53
September 2000 -0.27 2.44
October 2000 -0.47 2.41
November 2000 -0.05 2.33
December 2000 -0.04 2.24
January 2001 0.16 2.26
February 2001 0.27 2.31
March 2001 -0.22 2.42
April 2001 -0.38 2.69
May 2001 -0.72 2.84
June 2001 -0.40 3.08
July 2001 -0.20 3.25
August 2001 -0.49 3.42
September 2001 -0.99 2.57
October 2001 -0.70 3.49
November 2001 -0.71 3.64
December 2001 -0.90 3.54
January 2002 -1.14 3.23
February 2002 -1.17 3.18
March 2002 -1.17 3.12
April 2002 -0.86 3.02
May 2002 -0.70 2.97
June 2002 -0.86 2.83
July 2002 -1.30 2.83
August 2002 -0.64 2.76
September 2002 -0.52 3.71
October 2002 -0.90 2.78
November 2002 -1.29 2.68
December 2002 -1.28 2.82
January 2003 -1.47 2.89
February 2003 -1.67 2.86
March 2003 -1.70 2.92
April 2003 -2.15 2.90
May 2003 -2.34 3.06
June 2003 -2.38 3.01
July 2003 -2.13 3.01
August 2003 -2.42 2.99
September 2003 -2.59 2.99
October 2003 -2.41 3.12
November 2003 -2.42 3.10
December 2003 -2.25 3.14
January 2004 -1.87 3.19
February 2004 -1.49 3.20
March 2004 -1.14 3.21
April 2004 -0.98 3.37
May 2004 -0.51 3.21
June 2004 -0.35 3.31
July 2004 -0.64 3.31
August 2004 -0.80 3.28
September 2004 -0.49 3.22
October 2004 -0.10 3.09
November 2004 0.18 3.20
December 2004 0.10 3.14
January 2005 0.37 3.09
February 2005 0.21 3.08
March 2005 0.07 3.16
April 2005 -0.08 3.03
May 2005 0.04 3.09
June 2005 -0.23 3.04
July 2005 -0.25 3.01
August 2005 -0.05 2.96
September 2005 -0.04 3.04
October 2005 -0.24 3.16
November 2005 -0.25 3.15
December 2005 -0.14 3.13
January 2006 -0.37 3.06
February 2006 -0.47 3.08
March 2006 -0.28 3.05
April 2006 -0.04 3.17
May 2006 -0.20 3.20
June 2006 -0.02 3.34
July 2006 0.02 3.33
August 2006 0.30 3.42
September 2006 0.20 3.42
October 2006 0.04 3.38
November 2006 -0.37 3.27
December 2006 -0.39 3.31
January 2007 -0.32 3.51
February 2007 -0.06 3.45
March 2007 -0.44 3.33
April 2007 -0.71 3.32
May 2007 -0.84 3.26
June 2007 -0.91 3.21
July 2007 -0.71 3.17
August 2007 -1.08 3.23
September 2007 -1.07 3.34
October 2007 -0.86 3.34
November 2007 -0.45 3.33
December 2007 -0.32 3.35
January 2008 -0.24 3.16
February 2008 -0.34 3.14
March 2008 -0.29 3.24
April 2008 -0.14 3.14
May 2008 -0.17 3.22
June 2008 0.03 3.27
July 2008 0.21 3.24
August 2008 0.52 3.12
September 2008 0.53 2.92
October 2008 0.20 2.70

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Figure: PCE excluding Food and Energy
Percent
Period PCE 3-month change, annual rate
January 2000 1.69 2.24
February 2000 1.85 2.46
March 2000 2.02 2.63
April 2000 1.80 1.79
May 2000 1.75 1.42
June 2000 1.68 0.59
July 2000 1.62 0.63
August 2000 1.64 0.63
September 2000 1.58 1.48
October 2000 1.50 1.35
November 2000 1.57 1.79
December 2000 1.51 1.36
January 2001 1.60 2.63
February 2001 1.67 2.86
March 2001 1.60 2.96
April 2001 1.73 2.33
May 2001 1.73 1.65
June 2001 2.00 2.18
July 2001 2.18 2.41
August 2001 2.21 2.53
September 2001 1.47 -0.59
October 2001 2.20 1.44
November 2001 2.30 2.17
December 2001 2.17 4.18
January 2002 1.88 1.34
February 2002 1.83 1.00
March 2002 1.80 1.48
April 2002 1.82 2.10
May 2002 1.84 1.68
June 2002 1.69 1.77
July 2002 1.56 1.36
August 2002 1.71 2.02
September 2002 2.41 2.22
October 2002 1.65 1.77
November 2002 1.46 1.14
December 2002 1.56 0.76
January 2003 1.55 0.98
February 2003 1.47 1.07
March 2003 1.51 1.28
April 2003 1.35 1.28
May 2003 1.40 1.39
June 2003 1.36 1.17
July 2003 1.43 1.70
August 2003 1.33 1.73
September 2003 1.27 1.89
October 2003 1.42 1.73
November 2003 1.41 1.46
December 2003 1.49 1.64
January 2004 1.65 1.88
February 2004 1.77 2.52
March 2004 1.89 2.87
April 2004 2.05 2.88
May 2004 2.09 2.65
June 2004 2.21 2.44
July 2004 2.12 2.00
August 2004 2.06 1.63
September 2004 2.12 1.54
October 2004 2.15 1.83
November 2004 2.31 2.44
December 2004 2.24 2.12
January 2005 2.29 2.44
February 2005 2.23 2.20
March 2005 2.24 2.86
April 2005 2.10 2.13
May 2005 2.17 2.43
June 2005 2.06 1.74
July 2005 2.04 1.77
August 2005 2.07 1.21
September 2005 2.13 1.80
October 2005 2.15 2.25
November 2005 2.14 2.73
December 2005 2.16 2.26
January 2006 2.05 2.04
February 2006 2.04 1.81
March 2006 2.08 2.51
April 2006 2.23 2.87
May 2006 2.21 3.09
June 2006 2.37 2.90
July 2006 2.37 2.30
August 2006 2.51 2.42
September 2006 2.48 2.25
October 2006 2.41 2.43
November 2006 2.21 1.55
December 2006 2.24 1.29
January 2007 2.39 1.96
February 2007 2.42 2.63
March 2007 2.23 2.48
April 2007 2.14 1.88
May 2007 2.06 1.64
June 2007 2.01 2.01
July 2007 2.03 1.85
August 2007 1.96 2.04
September 2007 2.05 2.41
October 2007 2.11 2.75
November 2007 2.22 2.59
December 2007 2.28 2.22
January 2008 2.18 2.23
February 2008 2.13 2.26
March 2008 2.23 2.27
April 2008 2.19 1.93
May 2008 2.24 2.09
June 2008 2.34 2.48
July 2008 2.38 2.61
August 2008 2.38 2.60
September 2008 2.25 2.04
October 2008 2.01 1.26

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Figure: CPI excluding Food and Energy
Percent
Period CPI 3-month change, annual rate
January 2000 2.00 2.72
February 2000 2.16 2.26
March 2000 2.44 2.94
April 2000 2.32 2.25
May 2000 2.43 2.93
June 2000 2.49 2.47
July 2000 2.49 2.69
August 2000 2.60 2.68
September 2000 2.59 2.68
October 2000 2.52 2.45
November 2000 2.58 2.67
December 2000 2.58 2.21
January 2001 2.63 2.88
February 2001 2.73 2.87
March 2001 2.66 3.09
April 2001 2.60 2.64
May 2001 2.54 1.97
June 2001 2.71 2.85
July 2001 2.70 2.84
August 2001 2.70 3.06
September 2001 2.63 2.39
October 2001 2.63 2.16
November 2001 2.79 3.03
December 2001 2.74 2.81
January 2002 2.56 2.80
February 2002 2.60 2.14
March 2002 2.43 1.71
April 2002 2.53 2.14
May 2002 2.53 1.92
June 2002 2.26 2.13
July 2002 2.20 1.70
August 2002 2.36 2.34
September 2002 2.24 2.33
October 2002 2.24 2.12
November 2002 1.97 1.69
December 2002 1.92 1.68
January 2003 1.91 1.89
February 2003 1.74 1.26
March 2003 1.69 0.84
April 2003 1.47 0.21
May 2003 1.58 0.83
June 2003 1.53 1.04
July 2003 1.52 1.88
August 2003 1.31 1.46
September 2003 1.20 1.46
October 2003 1.30 1.25
November 2003 1.09 0.83
December 2003 1.15 1.04
January 2004 1.15 1.45
February 2004 1.25 1.87
March 2004 1.61 2.70
April 2004 1.76 2.49
May 2004 1.71 2.69
June 2004 1.87 2.06
July 2004 1.76 1.85
August 2004 1.71 1.43
September 2004 1.96 2.05
October 2004 2.01 2.25
November 2004 2.17 2.87
December 2004 2.17 2.04
January 2005 2.27 2.24
February 2005 2.36 2.24
March 2005 2.35 3.06
April 2005 2.24 2.43
May 2005 2.19 2.22
June 2005 2.03 1.21
July 2005 2.14 1.41
August 2005 2.13 1.40
September 2005 1.98 1.60
October 2005 2.07 2.21
November 2005 2.12 2.61
December 2005 2.17 2.81
January 2006 2.12 2.40
February 2006 2.06 2.19
March 2006 2.09 2.79
April 2006 2.29 3.19
May 2006 2.44 3.58
June 2006 2.64 3.57
July 2006 2.69 3.16
August 2006 2.84 2.95
September 2006 2.93 2.55
October 2006 2.72 2.35
November 2006 2.62 1.56
December 2006 2.57 1.55
January 2007 2.67 1.96
February 2007 2.71 2.69
March 2007 2.45 2.20
April 2007 2.34 2.01
May 2007 2.24 1.72
June 2007 2.22 2.34
July 2007 2.21 2.46
August 2007 2.13 2.47
September 2007 2.14 2.48
October 2007 2.17 2.27
November 2007 2.33 2.60
December 2007 2.44 2.61
January 2008 2.47 3.15
February 2008 2.27 2.32
March 2008 2.35 2.03
April 2008 2.26 1.19
May 2008 2.31 1.85
June 2008 2.41 2.55
July 2008 2.51 3.46
August 2008 2.54 3.43
September 2008 2.47 2.68
October 2008 2.22 1.06

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Energy and Food Price Indicators

(Data from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration except as noted)

Figure: Total Gasoline Margin
Retail price less average spot crude price*
Period Cents per gallon
10 January 2005 100.60
17 January 2005 97.25
24 January 2005 99.82
31 January 2005 105.10
7 February 2005 109.89
14 February 2005 103.24
21 February 2005 94.96
28 February 2005 93.24
7 March 2005 93.14
14 March 2005 94.97
21 March 2005 94.26
28 March 2005 100.75
4 April 2005 95.83
11 April 2005 104.67
18 April 2005 105.05
25 April 2005 97.40
2 May 2005 101.47
9 May 2005 93.52
16 May 2005 99.68
23 May 2005 95.40
30 May 2005 85.29
6 June 2005 81.15
13 June 2005 79.56
20 June 2005 74.57
27 June 2005 80.96
4 July 2005 87.41
11 July 2005 101.13
18 July 2005 106.55
25 July 2005 105.60
1 August 2005 93.62
8 August 2005 93.44
15 August 2005 107.13
22 August 2005 114.02
29 August 2005 110.16
5 September 2005 156.12
12 September 2005 150.91
19 September 2005 126.46
26 September 2005 135.19
3 October 2005 152.40
10 October 2005 156.52
17 October 2005 142.93
24 October 2005 137.44
31 October 2005 126.67
7 November 2005 117.55
14 November 2005 114.23
21 November 2005 105.29
28 November 2005 103.77
5 December 2005 98.57
12 December 2005 102.13
19 December 2005 115.50
26 December 2005 112.49
2 January 2006 103.76
9 January 2006 111.82
16 January 2006 104.21
23 January 2006 101.89
30 January 2006 104.39
6 February 2006 106.94
13 February 2006 109.74
20 February 2006 103.84
27 February 2006 103.76
6 March 2006 104.95
13 March 2006 107.54
20 March 2006 120.19
27 March 2006 108.44
3 April 2006 107.88
10 April 2006 109.24
17 April 2006 111.44
24 April 2006 124.16
1 May 2006 117.79
8 May 2006 125.64
15 May 2006 131.38
22 May 2006 126.41
29 May 2006 116.54
5 June 2006 117.21
12 June 2006 122.10
19 June 2006 121.51
26 June 2006 118.74
3 July 2006 125.15
10 July 2006 131.46
17 July 2006 131.95
24 July 2006 136.35
31 July 2006 134.16
7 August 2006 128.41
14 August 2006 131.54
21 August 2006 126.28
28 August 2006 121.90
4 September 2006 114.96
11 September 2006 111.15
18 September 2006 104.07
25 September 2006 101.98
2 October 2006 99.50
9 October 2006 101.37
16 October 2006 103.28
23 October 2006 107.53
30 October 2006 102.46
6 November 2006 98.30
13 November 2006 102.05
20 November 2006 107.10
27 November 2006 102.49
4 December 2006 105.05
11 December 2006 110.74
18 December 2006 114.73
25 December 2006 118.79
1 January 2007 124.13
8 January 2007 125.47
15 January 2007 126.03
22 January 2007 119.63
29 January 2007 113.65
5 February 2007 106.40
12 February 2007 113.18
19 February 2007 117.71
26 February 2007 116.94
5 March 2007 129.09
12 March 2007 133.53
19 March 2007 136.52
26 March 2007 122.95
2 April 2007 121.56
9 April 2007 135.16
16 April 2007 133.28
23 April 2007 128.25
30 April 2007 137.29
7 May 2007 153.91
14 May 2007 156.91
21 May 2007 159.24
28 May 2007 161.49
4 June 2007 148.16
11 June 2007 138.74
18 June 2007 122.86
25 June 2007 125.07
2 July 2007 123.56
9 July 2007 127.56
16 July 2007 134.50
23 July 2007 125.17
30 July 2007 110.85
6 August 2007 115.87
13 August 2007 110.31
20 August 2007 112.70
27 August 2007 106.97
3 September 2007 104.78
10 September 2007 103.02
17 September 2007 93.20
24 September 2007 95.16
1 October 2007 101.78
8 October 2007 106.98
15 October 2007 96.37
22 October 2007 102.15
29 October 2007 91.92
5 November 2007 102.23
12 November 2007 107.83
19 November 2007 103.67
26 November 2007 102.14
3 December 2007 119.13
10 December 2007 118.18
17 December 2007 114.34
24 December 2007 105.68
31 December 2007 105.55
7 January 2008 113.00
14 January 2008 111.21
21 January 2008 115.54
28 January 2008 108.84
4 February 2008 112.90
11 February 2008 103.61
18 February 2008 98.50
25 February 2008 106.56
3 March 2008 99.19
10 March 2008 91.39
17 March 2008 99.95
24 March 2008 102.94
31 March 2008 99.06
7 April 2008 89.83
14 April 2008 79.67
21 April 2008 77.63
28 April 2008 83.33
5 May 2008 82.85
12 May 2008 83.09
19 May 2008 84.49
26 May 2008 90.86
2 June 2008 94.76
9 June 2008 83.56
16 June 2008 82.93
23 June 2008 82.35
30 June 2008 78.50
7 July 2008 78.31
14 July 2008 74.00
21 July 2008 102.40
28 July 2008 105.57
4 August 2008 102.53
11 August 2008 111.74
18 August 2008 106.14
25 August 2008 95.15
1 September 2008 106.16
8 September 2008 114.32
15 September 2008 156.47
22 September 2008 96.88
29 September 2008 141.32
6 October 2008 152.82
13 October 2008 145.62
20 October 2008 141.19
27 October 2008 140.37
3 November 2008 114.47
10 November 2008 100.89
17 November 2008 100.19
24 November 2008 87.11
1 December 2008 87.40

* Regular grade seasonally adjusted by FRB staff, less average spot crude price: 60% West Texas intermediate, 40% Maya heavy crude. Includes gasoline taxes.  Return to table


Figure: Gasoline Price Decomposition
Cents per gallon
Period Retail price* Rack price Average spot crude price**
10 January 2005 193.53 136.94 92.93
17 January 2005 195.35 141.62 98.10
24 January 2005 197.98 143.63 98.16
31 January 2005 203.02 146.15 97.92
7 February 2005 202.06 142.09 92.18
14 February 2005 200.20 143.45 96.96
21 February 2005 199.54 141.02 104.58
28 February 2005 199.88 141.85 106.64
7 March 2005 205.02 151.74 111.88
14 March 2005 208.76 152.90 113.79
21 March 2005 211.62 157.40 117.36
28 March 2005 212.54 159.20 111.79
4 April 2005 215.42 166.89 119.60
11 April 2005 218.20 150.51 113.53
18 April 2005 210.76 144.52 105.71
25 April 2005 210.54 156.77 113.13
2 May 2005 210.97 145.39 109.50
9 May 2005 206.61 144.47 113.09
16 May 2005 204.84 140.46 105.16
23 May 2005 200.87 139.17 105.47
30 May 2005 197.37 142.28 112.08
6 June 2005 198.56 149.02 117.41
13 June 2005 199.26 147.49 119.70
20 June 2005 202.60 155.33 128.03
27 June 2005 210.87 158.46 129.91
4 July 2005 215.00 157.95 127.58
11 July 2005 228.22 171.76 127.09
18 July 2005 229.85 164.97 123.31
25 July 2005 226.54 167.02 120.94
1 August 2005 225.30 168.10 131.68
8 August 2005 231.56 179.65 138.12
15 August 2005 248.32 199.55 141.19
22 August 2005 253.76 194.86 139.73
29 August 2005 253.67 198.51 143.52
5 September 2005 299.70 232.93 143.58
12 September 2005 288.42 214.36 137.51
19 September 2005 272.24 190.01 145.78
26 September 2005 277.41 216.18 142.22
3 October 2005 293.72 236.99 141.31
10 October 2005 289.52 203.75 133.00
17 October 2005 280.91 195.20 137.98
24 October 2005 268.95 184.88 131.51
31 October 2005 255.30 179.81 128.63
7 November 2005 243.55 175.41 126.00
14 November 2005 234.21 164.49 119.98
21 November 2005 224.98 160.26 119.69
28 November 2005 223.32 162.44 119.55
5 December 2005 225.70 171.91 127.13
12 December 2005 232.58 177.35 130.45
19 December 2005 237.78 177.38 122.27
26 December 2005 236.05 175.78 123.55
2 January 2006 239.33 187.90 135.57
9 January 2006 247.41 193.70 135.60
16 January 2006 245.90 185.33 141.69
23 January 2006 247.02 189.61 145.12
30 January 2006 248.89 188.71 144.50
6 February 2006 247.17 181.54 140.22
13 February 2006 241.14 168.17 131.40
20 February 2006 235.73 175.21 131.89
27 February 2006 234.78 177.78 131.02
6 March 2006 240.11 188.55 135.16
13 March 2006 241.24 182.98 133.70
20 March 2006 252.34 193.45 132.15
27 March 2006 247.87 187.52 139.42
3 April 2006 252.89 195.09 145.01
10 April 2006 258.42 201.97 149.18
17 April 2006 264.63 209.28 153.19
24 April 2006 277.11 219.22 152.96
1 May 2006 278.15 207.63 160.37
8 May 2006 277.69 208.61 152.05
15 May 2006 282.03 219.63 150.65
22 May 2006 276.23 204.61 149.82
29 May 2006 272.33 208.16 155.79
5 June 2006 273.42 217.04 156.22
12 June 2006 273.42 214.24 151.32
19 June 2006 269.37 203.54 147.86
26 June 2006 272.50 214.81 153.76
3 July 2006 286.98 227.41 161.83
10 July 2006 290.53 229.18 159.07
17 July 2006 295.82 239.30 163.87
24 July 2006 297.47 240.46 161.12
31 July 2006 296.22 236.16 162.06
7 August 2006 298.27 238.54 169.86
14 August 2006 293.12 222.53 161.58
21 August 2006 284.59 218.00 158.30
28 August 2006 276.65 206.10 154.75
4 September 2006 264.84 191.89 149.88
11 September 2006 253.93 179.48 142.78
18 September 2006 242.25 174.69 138.19
25 September 2006 234.23 164.82 132.25
2 October 2006 232.06 172.72 132.56
9 October 2006 231.80 171.53 130.43
16 October 2006 232.92 171.12 129.63
23 October 2006 232.20 171.37 124.67
30 October 2006 231.58 175.40 129.12
6 November 2006 228.17 175.06 129.87
13 November 2006 229.75 176.33 127.70
20 November 2006 229.98 174.79 122.88
27 November 2006 233.33 179.17 130.84
4 December 2006 241.26 189.79 136.21
11 December 2006 243.70 184.35 132.96
18 December 2006 248.99 193.55 134.26
25 December 2006 250.89 189.27 132.10
1 January 2007 249.19 187.01 125.06
8 January 2007 245.40 174.21 119.93
15 January 2007 236.71 164.18 110.68
22 January 2007 229.88 160.33 110.26
29 January 2007 230.20 169.99 116.55
5 February 2007 233.13 177.01 126.73
12 February 2007 238.45 182.83 125.27
19 February 2007 243.51 186.98 125.80
26 February 2007 249.69 196.03 132.74
5 March 2007 259.24 202.24 130.15
12 March 2007 261.99 199.28 128.46
19 March 2007 260.95 197.67 124.43
26 March 2007 260.25 199.28 137.30
2 April 2007 265.75 206.11 144.20
9 April 2007 271.06 213.11 135.90
16 April 2007 274.31 215.59 141.02
23 April 2007 272.27 209.38 144.02
30 April 2007 282.80 228.21 145.51
7 May 2007 291.42 230.17 137.50
14 May 2007 296.64 247.48 139.74
21 May 2007 307.75 255.79 148.50
28 May 2007 304.88 246.21 143.39
4 June 2007 297.67 234.37 149.50
11 June 2007 287.55 214.64 148.81
18 June 2007 279.45 220.46 156.59
25 June 2007 280.35 225.31 155.28
2 July 2007 282.74 224.35 159.18
9 July 2007 289.63 240.58 162.07
16 July 2007 301.10 234.85 166.61
23 July 2007 293.19 224.44 168.02
30 July 2007 283.51 216.52 172.67
6 August 2007 278.24 213.20 162.37
13 August 2007 270.06 206.74 159.75
20 August 2007 270.30 219.02 157.60
27 August 2007 266.60 216.31 159.63
3 September 2007 271.30 225.99 166.52
10 September 2007 273.51 221.47 170.49
17 September 2007 270.61 222.86 177.41
24 September 2007 276.87 229.17 181.71
1 October 2007 279.51 224.39 177.73
8 October 2007 282.75 225.77 175.77
15 October 2007 286.99 229.83 190.62
22 October 2007 295.20 236.87 193.05
29 October 2007 298.37 245.78 206.45
5 November 2007 310.73 263.04 208.50
12 November 2007 318.79 267.58 210.96
19 November 2007 316.58 256.09 212.91
26 November 2007 318.74 262.75 216.60
3 December 2007 317.91 243.37 198.78
10 December 2007 314.58 245.19 196.40
17 December 2007 317.06 252.93 202.72
24 December 2007 315.40 258.23 209.72
31 December 2007 321.66 265.49 216.11
7 January 2008 326.22 267.69 213.22
14 January 2008 321.07 252.09 209.86
21 January 2008 315.44 251.63 199.90
28 January 2008 312.01 254.15 203.17
4 February 2008 312.71 251.40 199.81
11 February 2008 311.52 255.03 207.90
18 February 2008 319.86 265.38 221.37
25 February 2008 326.06 269.18 219.50
3 March 2008 326.20 267.92 227.01
10 March 2008 329.44 272.01 238.05
17 March 2008 332.25 268.44 232.30
24 March 2008 325.84 261.86 222.90
31 March 2008 324.66 265.71 225.60
7 April 2008 324.57 267.46 234.75
14 April 2008 325.99 268.01 246.32
21 April 2008 335.36 281.92 257.72
28 April 2008 345.29 289.66 261.96
5 May 2008 346.77 285.75 263.92
12 May 2008 358.15 308.62 275.06
19 May 2008 365.17 311.49 280.68
26 May 2008 377.72 324.56 286.86
2 June 2008 379.20 321.00 284.44
9 June 2008 383.09 329.72 299.53
16 June 2008 385.05 322.88 302.11
23 June 2008 387.11 325.74 304.76
30 June 2008 393.85 334.63 315.34
7 July 2008 400.88 341.85 322.57
14 July 2008 405.92 348.48 331.91
21 July 2008 404.09 320.19 301.70
28 July 2008 391.81 305.48 286.24
4 August 2008 382.77 313.13 280.24
11 August 2008 374.13 301.48 262.39
18 August 2008 365.79 294.26 259.65
25 August 2008 359.98 291.47 264.82
1 September 2008 359.48 306.33 253.32
8 September 2008 356.29 299.82 241.97
15 September 2008 375.00 334.97 218.53
22 September 2008 365.92 294.39 269.04
29 September 2008 362.56 296.67 221.24
6 October 2008 353.00 263.02 200.18
13 October 2008 324.95 225.39 179.33
20 October 2008 305.03 209.81 163.84
27 October 2008 277.87 184.08 137.50
3 November 2008 250.46 175.04 136.00
10 November 2008 231.05 162.19 130.17
17 November 2008 214.23 147.65 114.04
24 November 2008 197.81 129.56 110.70
1 December 2008 192.45 137.33 105.05

* Regular grade seasonally adjusted by FRB staff.  Return to table

** 60% West Texas intermediate, 40% Maya heavy crude.  Return to table


Figure: Gasoline Inventories
Millions of barrels
Period Excluding ethanol Adjusted for ethanol use* Lower bound of average historical range Upper bound of average historical range
January 2005 222.16 ND 209.59 221.06
February 2005 229.30 ND 207.85 219.32
March 2005 213.66 ND 199.11 210.58
April 2005 217.81 ND 202.37 213.84
May 2005 218.27 ND 206.81 218.28
June 2005 217.62 ND 206.19 217.66
July 2005 206.86 ND 203.51 214.98
August 2005 191.14 ND 192.94 204.41
September 2005 196.15 ND 196.49 207.96
October 2005 200.96 ND 192.02 203.48
November 2005 205.26 ND 201.01 212.48
December 2005 208.33 ND 202.46 213.93
January 2006 220.43 223.16 209.59 221.06
February 2006 222.37 225.12 207.85 219.32
March 2006 208.72 211.51 199.11 210.58
April 2006 206.86 210.90 202.37 213.84
May 2006 214.16 218.54 206.81 218.28
June 2006 213.29 217.94 206.19 217.66
July 2006 208.86 213.47 203.51 214.98
August 2006 208.99 213.69 192.94 204.41
September 2006 214.13 218.95 196.49 207.96
October 2006 204.60 209.29 192.02 203.48
November 2006 204.03 208.64 201.01 212.48
December 2006 211.81 216.62 202.46 213.93
January 2007 227.43 232.52 209.59 221.06
February 2007 215.33 220.16 207.85 219.32
March 2007 201.57 206.08 199.11 210.58
April 2007 196.92 201.21 202.37 213.84
May 2007 202.75 207.05 206.81 218.28
June 2007 205.55 209.84 206.19 217.66
July 2007 205.10 209.57 203.51 214.98
August 2007 193.97 198.10 192.94 204.41
September 2007 199.99 204.23 196.49 207.96
October 2007 198.59 203.02 192.02 203.48
November 2007 204.76 209.31 201.01 212.48
December 2007 218.11 223.41 202.46 213.93
January 2008 231.25 236.90 209.59 221.06
February 2008 233.76 239.43 207.85 219.32
March 2008 221.20 226.33 199.11 210.58
April 2008 210.01 214.82 202.37 213.84
May 2008 207.44 212.12 206.81 218.28
June 2008 209.77 214.57 206.19 217.66
July 2008 205.72 210.71 203.51 214.98
August 2008 194.89 199.34 192.94 204.41
September 2008 189.48 193.73 196.49 207.96
26 September 2008 179.64 183.78 ND ND
October 2008 194.90 199.49 192.02 203.48
3 October 2008 186.82 191.04 ND ND
10 October 2008 193.79 198.15 ND ND
17 October 2008 196.50 201.09 ND ND
31 October 2008 196.11 ND ND ND
November 2008 ND ND 201.01 212.48
7 November 2008 198.10 202.75 ND ND
14 November 2008 198.63 203.46 ND ND
21 November 2008 200.48 205.39 ND ND
28 November 2008 198.94 203.84 ND ND
December 2008 ND ND 202.46 213.93
5 December 2008 202.66 207.81 ND ND
January 2009 ND ND 209.59 221.06

Note: Shaded region is average historical range as calculated by U.S. Dept. of Energy. Monthly data through September 2008, weekly data thereafter.

* Adjustment for approximate amount of fuel ethanol to be blended with RBOB component of inventories; estimated by FRB staff.  Return to table


Figure: Natural Gas Prices
Period Dollars per million BTU
13 October 2004 5.24
20 October 2004 7.15
27 October 2004 8.03
3 November 2004 7.44
10 November 2004 6.32
17 November 2004 6.06
24 November 2004 5.44
1 December 2004 7.08
8 December 2004 6.22
15 December 2004 7.12
22 December 2004 7.20
29 December 2004 6.25
5 January 2005 6.13
12 January 2005 6.04
19 January 2005 8.79
26 January 2005 8.25
2 February 2005 6.53
9 February 2005 6.36
16 February 2005 6.12
23 February 2005 6.56
2 March 2005 6.94
9 March 2005 7.38
16 March 2005 7.19
23 March 2005 7.27
30 March 2005 7.23
6 April 2005 7.48
13 April 2005 7.17
20 April 2005 7.16
27 April 2005 7.13
4 May 2005 6.55
11 May 2005 6.68
18 May 2005 6.43
25 May 2005 6.46
1 June 2005 6.24
8 June 2005 7.50
15 June 2005 7.25
22 June 2005 7.35
29 June 2005 7.15
6 July 2005 7.63
13 July 2005 7.74
20 July 2005 7.84
27 July 2005 7.48
3 August 2005 8.75
10 August 2005 8.84
17 August 2005 9.81
24 August 2005 9.72
31 August 2005 12.23
7 September 2005 10.53
14 September 2005 10.92
21 September 2005 14.06
28 September 2005 12.54
5 October 2005 14.41
12 October 2005 13.29
19 October 2005 12.99
26 October 2005 14.34
2 November 2005 10.08
9 November 2005 8.71
16 November 2005 10.88
23 November 2005 10.35
30 November 2005 11.40
7 December 2005 14.08
14 December 2005 14.67
21 December 2005 13.59
28 December 2005 9.55
4 January 2006 8.97
11 January 2006 8.47
18 January 2006 8.67
25 January 2006 8.17
1 February 2006 8.57
8 February 2006 7.81
15 February 2006 7.16
22 February 2006 7.42
1 March 2006 6.63
8 March 2006 6.48
15 March 2006 7.07
22 March 2006 6.94
29 March 2006 6.90
5 April 2006 7.26
12 April 2006 6.55
19 April 2006 7.28
26 April 2006 7.13
3 May 2006 6.53
10 May 2006 6.28
17 May 2006 6.06
24 May 2006 5.93
31 May 2006 5.94
7 June 2006 5.88
14 June 2006 6.08
21 June 2006 6.60
28 June 2006 5.24
5 July 2006 5.84
12 July 2006 5.82
19 July 2006 6.04
26 July 2006 7.01
2 August 2006 8.59
9 August 2006 7.88
16 August 2006 6.91
23 August 2006 6.98
30 August 2006 6.55
6 September 2006 5.70
13 September 2006 5.37
20 September 2006 4.90
27 September 2006 4.27
4 October 2006 4.22
11 October 2006 5.10
18 October 2006 6.22
25 October 2006 7.28
1 November 2006 6.90
8 November 2006 7.01
15 November 2006 7.16
22 November 2006 6.95
29 November 2006 7.45
6 December 2006 7.66
13 December 2006 6.89
20 December 2006 6.39
27 December 2006 5.72
3 January 2007 5.60
10 January 2007 6.37
17 January 2007 7.70
24 January 2007 10.05
31 January 2007 7.89
7 February 2007 9.04
14 February 2007 11.31
21 February 2007 7.46
28 February 2007 7.27
7 March 2007 9.52
14 March 2007 6.88
21 March 2007 6.63
28 March 2007 6.77
4 April 2007 7.30
11 April 2007 7.96
18 April 2007 7.58
25 April 2007 7.46
2 May 2007 7.37
9 May 2007 7.18
16 May 2007 7.28
23 May 2007 7.29
30 May 2007 7.23
6 June 2007 7.36
13 June 2007 6.93
20 June 2007 7.17
27 June 2007 6.82
4 July 2007 6.24
11 July 2007 6.45
18 July 2007 6.17
25 July 2007 5.64
1 August 2007 6.33
8 August 2007 6.36
15 August 2007 6.73
22 August 2007 6.03
29 August 2007 5.33
5 September 2007 5.05
12 September 2007 5.47
19 September 2007 5.71
26 September 2007 5.95
3 October 2007 6.47
10 October 2007 6.36
17 October 2007 6.84
24 October 2007 6.37
31 October 2007 6.87
7 November 2007 6.80
14 November 2007 6.54
21 November 2007 6.85
28 November 2007 7.51
5 December 2007 8.87
12 December 2007 7.94
19 December 2007 8.14
26 December 2007 7.50
2 January 2008 8.37
9 January 2008 7.72
16 January 2008 8.94
23 January 2008 10.29
30 January 2008 9.01
6 February 2008 8.11
13 February 2008 9.27
20 February 2008 9.64
27 February 2008 10.10
5 March 2008 9.53
12 March 2008 9.76
19 March 2008 9.20
26 March 2008 9.31
2 April 2008 10.05
9 April 2008 9.94
16 April 2008 10.16
23 April 2008 10.29
30 April 2008 10.82
7 May 2008 10.87
14 May 2008 10.70
21 May 2008 11.00
28 May 2008 11.21
4 June 2008 11.83
11 June 2008 12.18
18 June 2008 12.40
25 June 2008 12.69
2 July 2008 12.89
9 July 2008 12.03
16 July 2008 11.59
23 July 2008 10.05
30 July 2008 8.89
6 August 2008 8.95
13 August 2008 7.89
20 August 2008 7.67
27 August 2008 7.68
3 September 2008 6.92
10 September 2008 6.90
17 September 2008 6.70
24 September 2008 7.83
1 October 2008 6.29
8 October 2008 5.56
15 October 2008 5.63
22 October 2008 6.31
29 October 2008 5.98
5 November 2008 6.09
12 November 2008 6.19
19 November 2008 7.39
26 November 2008 6.50
3 December 2008 6.44

Note: National average spot price.

Source: Bloomberg.


Figure: PCE Food Prices
12-month percent change
Period Food and beverages Ex. food and energy
January 2005 2.67 2.29
February 2005 2.36 2.23
March 2005 2.33 2.24
April 2005 2.74 2.10
May 2005 2.16 2.17
June 2005 2.01 2.06
July 2005 2.03 2.04
August 2005 1.94 2.07
September 2005 2.24 2.13
October 2005 2.00 2.15
November 2005 2.18 2.14
December 2005 2.26 2.16
January 2006 2.50 2.05
February 2006 2.52 2.04
March 2006 2.43 2.08
April 2006 1.79 2.23
May 2006 1.99 2.21
June 2006 2.30 2.37
July 2006 2.27 2.37
August 2006 2.46 2.51
September 2006 2.51 2.48
October 2006 2.52 2.41
November 2006 2.25 2.21
December 2006 2.15 2.24
January 2007 2.39 2.39
February 2007 3.01 2.42
March 2007 3.25 2.23
April 2007 3.49 2.14
May 2007 3.61 2.06
June 2007 3.79 2.01
July 2007 3.91 2.03
August 2007 4.07 1.96
September 2007 4.18 2.05
October 2007 4.25 2.11
November 2007 4.52 2.22
December 2007 4.63 2.28
January 2008 4.67 2.18
February 2008 4.48 2.13
March 2008 4.34 2.23
April 2008 4.99 2.19
May 2008 4.90 2.24
June 2008 5.04 2.34
July 2008 5.69 2.38
August 2008 5.85 2.38
September 2008 6.10 2.25
October 2008 6.22 2.01

Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Figure: Spot Agricultural Commodity Prices
Dollars per bushel
Period Corn Soybeans
4 January 2005 1.87 5.20
11 January 2005 1.92 5.42
18 January 2005 1.81 5.13
25 January 2005 1.86 5.30
1 February 2005 1.84 5.09
8 February 2005 1.81 5.05
15 February 2005 1.86 5.34
22 February 2005 1.94 5.63
1 March 2005 1.94 5.91
8 March 2005 1.93 6.01
15 March 2005 2.06 6.54
22 March 2005 1.97 6.01
29 March 2005 1.99 5.99
5 April 2005 1.88 5.94
12 April 2005 1.93 5.97
19 April 2005 1.97 6.16
26 April 2005 2.00 6.26
3 May 2005 1.88 6.11
10 May 2005 1.89 6.21
17 May 2005 1.90 6.09
24 May 2005 2.00 6.37
31 May 2005 2.01 6.67
7 June 2005 1.99 6.64
14 June 2005 1.94 6.70
21 June 2005 2.13 7.24
28 June 2005 2.01 6.55
5 July 2005 2.15 7.04
12 July 2005 2.15 6.94
19 July 2005 2.30 6.79
26 July 2005 2.17 6.75
2 August 2005 2.12 6.88
9 August 2005 2.00 6.39
16 August 2005 1.91 6.11
23 August 2005 1.94 6.03
30 August 2005 1.88 5.89
6 September 2005 1.83 5.86
13 September 2005 1.75 5.56
20 September 2005 1.70 5.37
27 September 2005 1.67 5.42
4 October 2005 1.67 5.25
11 October 2005 1.65 5.21
18 October 2005 1.64 5.41
25 October 2005 1.67 5.46
1 November 2005 1.70 5.50
8 November 2005 1.74 5.58
15 November 2005 1.78 5.67
22 November 2005 1.75 5.50
29 November 2005 1.74 5.37
6 December 2005 1.81 5.49
13 December 2005 1.90 5.84
20 December 2005 1.94 5.91
27 December 2005 2.00 5.98
3 January 2006 2.04 6.01
10 January 2006 1.97 5.60
17 January 2006 1.93 5.43
24 January 2006 1.89 5.46
31 January 2006 2.03 5.71
7 February 2006 2.00 5.53
14 February 2006 2.04 5.61
21 February 2006 2.09 5.63
28 February 2006 2.13 5.55
7 March 2006 2.06 5.56
14 March 2006 2.05 5.56
21 March 2006 2.00 5.42
28 March 2006 2.01 5.62
4 April 2006 2.14 5.34
11 April 2006 2.23 5.37
18 April 2006 2.20 5.53
25 April 2006 2.15 5.62
2 May 2006 2.17 5.70
9 May 2006 2.12 5.72
16 May 2006 2.31 5.68
23 May 2006 2.23 5.53
30 May 2006 2.25 5.50
6 June 2006 2.22 5.60
13 June 2006 2.18 5.65
20 June 2006 2.08 5.58
27 June 2006 2.06 5.53
11 July 2006 2.37 5.77
18 July 2006 2.21 5.56
25 July 2006 2.13 5.27
1 August 2006 2.13 5.42
8 August 2006 2.09 5.23
15 August 2006 1.98 5.18
22 August 2006 1.98 5.17
29 August 2006 2.05 5.06
5 September 2006 2.11 5.12
12 September 2006 2.09 5.04
19 September 2006 2.20 5.17
26 September 2006 2.34 5.19
3 October 2006 2.38 5.07
10 October 2006 2.54 5.27
17 October 2006 3.00 5.71
24 October 2006 3.05 6.01
31 October 2006 3.05 6.10
7 November 2006 3.41 6.31
14 November 2006 3.45 6.39
21 November 2006 3.47 6.43
28 November 2006 3.68 6.57
5 December 2006 3.54 6.42
12 December 2006 3.50 6.41
19 December 2006 3.50 6.32
26 December 2006 3.45 6.38
9 January 2007 3.33 6.32
16 January 2007 3.76 6.72
23 January 2007 3.85 6.91
30 January 2007 3.82 6.85
6 February 2007 3.76 7.02
13 February 2007 3.84 7.10
20 February 2007 3.97 7.37
27 February 2007 3.89 7.30
6 March 2007 3.91 7.02
13 March 2007 3.76 7.11
20 March 2007 3.75 7.19
27 March 2007 3.61 7.12
3 April 2007 3.16 7.22
10 April 2007 3.42 7.02
17 April 2007 3.27 6.89
24 April 2007 3.40 6.77
1 May 2007 3.50 7.08
8 May 2007 3.39 6.92
15 May 2007 3.48 7.36
22 May 2007 3.47 7.52
29 May 2007 3.47 7.55
5 June 2007 3.67 7.85
12 June 2007 3.80 7.82
19 June 2007 3.83 7.81
26 June 2007 3.42 7.62
3 July 2007 3.05 8.03
10 July 2007 3.22 8.33
17 July 2007 3.02 7.67
24 July 2007 2.83 7.49
31 July 2007 2.94 7.68
7 August 2007 3.09 7.82
14 August 2007 3.05 7.89
21 August 2007 3.19 7.54
28 August 2007 3.07 7.99
4 September 2007 3.06 8.39
11 September 2007 2.98 8.55
18 September 2007 3.06 9.04
25 September 2007 3.28 9.12
2 October 2007 3.09 8.86
9 October 2007 3.06 8.93
16 October 2007 3.32 9.29
23 October 2007 3.34 9.34
30 October 2007 3.53 9.54
6 November 2007 3.70 9.92
13 November 2007 3.59 10.10
20 November 2007 3.64 10.41
27 November 2007 3.69 10.46
4 December 2007 3.81 10.50
11 December 2007 3.95 10.93
18 December 2007 4.03 11.08
8 January 2008 4.50 12.06
15 January 2008 4.72 12.32
22 January 2008 4.54 11.75
29 January 2008 4.69 12.09
5 February 2008 4.82 12.66
12 February 2008 4.72 12.61
19 February 2008 4.93 13.40
26 February 2008 5.04 14.06
4 March 2008 5.15 14.35
11 March 2008 5.34 13.30
18 March 2008 5.10 12.36
25 March 2008 5.10 12.37
1 April 2008 5.50 11.46
8 April 2008 5.57 11.94
15 April 2008 5.70 13.29
22 April 2008 5.59 13.30
29 April 2008 5.58 12.45
6 May 2008 5.62 12.25
13 May 2008 5.61 13.26
20 May 2008 5.44 12.94
27 May 2008 5.54 13.06
3 June 2008 5.66 13.24
10 June 2008 6.30 14.15
17 June 2008 6.95 15.23
24 June 2008 6.67 14.70
1 July 2008 6.74 15.93
8 July 2008 6.50 15.24
15 July 2008 5.94 15.11
22 July 2008 5.24 14.01
29 July 2008 5.44 13.69
5 August 2008 4.75 12.44
12 August 2008 4.64 11.88
19 August 2008 5.20 12.51
26 August 2008 5.33 13.21
2 September 2008 5.18 12.78
9 September 2008 4.96 11.81
16 September 2008 4.86 11.11
23 September 2008 5.18 11.28
30 September 2008 4.41 9.79
7 October 2008 3.73 8.70
14 October 2008 3.67 8.43
21 October 2008 3.72 8.70
28 October 2008 3.51 8.53
4 November 2008 3.75 9.17
11 November 2008 3.41 8.75
18 November 2008 3.50 8.70
25 November 2008 3.21 8.53
2 December 2008 3.08 8.03
9 December 2008 2.89 7.90

Note: There is a series called "Wheat". Wheat begins in early 2005 at about 4 dollars per bushel, increases to about 13 by mid-2008, then decreases to end at about 5.3 on December 9, 2008.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau.


Commodity Price Indexes

Figure: Journal of Commerce
Ratio scale, 2006 = 100
Period Industrials Metals
8 January 1991 56.24 46.65
15 January 1991 56.39 45.72
22 January 1991 54.67 45.56
29 January 1991 53.67 44.97
5 February 1991 53.43 44.57
12 February 1991 53.52 45.43
19 February 1991 53.47 45.01
26 February 1991 52.55 45.18
5 March 1991 52.58 44.98
12 March 1991 52.26 44.48
19 March 1991 52.19 44.09
26 March 1991 52.17 44.05
2 April 1991 52.18 44.09
9 April 1991 52.44 43.85
16 April 1991 53.04 43.72
23 April 1991 53.15 44.05
30 April 1991 53.25 43.75
7 May 1991 53.34 42.78
14 May 1991 53.24 42.44
21 May 1991 53.24 41.74
28 May 1991 52.85 41.65
4 June 1991 52.45 41.15
11 June 1991 52.58 41.55
18 June 1991 52.81 41.57
25 June 1991 52.53 41.76
2 July 1991 52.38 41.94
9 July 1991 52.27 41.99
16 July 1991 51.82 41.58
23 July 1991 51.39 41.57
30 July 1991 51.21 41.49
6 August 1991 51.42 41.72
13 August 1991 51.33 41.85
20 August 1991 51.13 41.46
27 August 1991 51.29 41.60
3 September 1991 51.32 41.64
10 September 1991 51.34 41.76
17 September 1991 51.11 41.26
24 September 1991 51.55 41.54
1 October 1991 51.36 41.36
8 October 1991 51.39 41.14
15 October 1991 51.48 41.22
22 October 1991 51.71 41.59
29 October 1991 50.80 40.56
5 November 1991 50.61 40.20
12 November 1991 50.56 39.96
19 November 1991 50.66 40.06
26 November 1991 50.84 40.30
3 December 1991 50.90 40.13
10 December 1991 49.91 40.02
17 December 1991 49.77 40.08
24 December 1991 49.29 39.98
31 December 1991 49.63 40.42
7 January 1992 49.62 40.12
14 January 1992 49.35 40.04
21 January 1992 49.67 40.99
28 January 1992 49.21 41.60
4 February 1992 49.02 41.15
11 February 1992 50.22 41.67
18 February 1992 50.46 42.19
25 February 1992 50.12 42.32
3 March 1992 50.15 42.21
10 March 1992 50.17 42.31
17 March 1992 50.52 42.16
24 March 1992 50.79 42.19
31 March 1992 51.09 42.58
7 April 1992 51.47 42.70
14 April 1992 51.51 42.64
21 April 1992 51.73 42.62
28 April 1992 52.11 42.70
5 May 1992 52.08 42.63
12 May 1992 52.40 42.65
19 May 1992 52.71 42.90
26 May 1992 52.55 43.05
2 June 1992 52.43 43.25
9 June 1992 52.64 43.02
16 June 1992 53.03 43.33
23 June 1992 53.15 42.97
30 June 1992 53.56 44.46
7 July 1992 53.59 44.84
14 July 1992 53.27 44.52
21 July 1992 53.64 44.97
28 July 1992 54.38 45.02
4 August 1992 54.38 44.60
11 August 1992 54.19 45.24
18 August 1992 54.57 45.28
25 August 1992 54.48 45.49
1 September 1992 55.39 45.18
8 September 1992 55.35 44.76
15 September 1992 55.21 44.64
22 September 1992 55.12 44.24
29 September 1992 54.61 43.37
6 October 1992 54.00 41.92
13 October 1992 53.27 40.89
20 October 1992 53.26 40.53
27 October 1992 53.10 40.56
3 November 1992 52.47 39.77
10 November 1992 52.07 38.29
17 November 1992 52.31 38.26
24 November 1992 52.62 38.47
1 December 1992 53.35 39.42
8 December 1992 53.21 39.44
15 December 1992 52.32 39.20
22 December 1992 53.42 39.67
29 December 1992 53.18 39.80
5 January 1993 53.41 40.65
12 January 1993 53.63 41.03
19 January 1993 53.72 41.00
26 January 1993 53.93 40.97
2 February 1993 53.38 40.91
9 February 1993 54.66 41.93
16 February 1993 54.32 41.48
23 February 1993 54.35 41.35
2 March 1993 54.13 40.31
9 March 1993 55.16 40.42
16 March 1993 54.83 40.34
23 March 1993 55.18 40.58
30 March 1993 53.59 40.01
6 April 1993 53.34 39.41
13 April 1993 52.99 39.38
20 April 1993 52.84 38.52
27 April 1993 53.77 38.86
4 May 1993 52.42 38.52
11 May 1993 52.35 38.55
18 May 1993 51.14 37.87
25 May 1993 51.44 38.17
1 June 1993 50.75 37.60
8 June 1993 51.14 38.24
15 June 1993 51.22 38.09
22 June 1993 51.52 38.54
29 June 1993 51.24 38.48
6 July 1993 51.28 38.98
13 July 1993 50.84 38.47
20 July 1993 50.70 38.42
27 July 1993 51.00 38.37
3 August 1993 51.56 38.68
10 August 1993 51.56 37.85
17 August 1993 51.42 37.60
24 August 1993 51.38 37.75
31 August 1993 51.77 37.44
7 September 1993 51.40 37.56
14 September 1993 50.79 36.64
21 September 1993 50.05 35.50
28 September 1993 50.01 35.87
5 October 1993 49.88 36.29
12 October 1993 50.19 36.37
19 October 1993 50.34 37.00
26 October 1993 50.46 36.70
2 November 1993 50.55 36.72
9 November 1993 50.89 37.03
16 November 1993 51.03 36.95
23 November 1993 51.10 37.08
30 November 1993 50.81 37.09
7 December 1993 51.03 38.11
14 December 1993 51.08 39.20
21 December 1993 51.18 39.63
28 December 1993 51.36 39.67
4 January 1994 50.94 39.47
11 January 1994 51.83 39.92
18 January 1994 52.95 41.00
25 January 1994 53.47 41.22
1 February 1994 53.83 41.95
8 February 1994 54.44 42.40
15 February 1994 53.84 41.69
22 February 1994 53.60 42.40
1 March 1994 54.30 42.19
8 March 1994 54.02 41.75
15 March 1994 54.08 42.36
22 March 1994 54.37 42.83
29 March 1994 54.50 42.54
5 April 1994 54.78 42.18
12 April 1994 54.66 42.12
19 April 1994 55.35 41.73
26 April 1994 55.23 41.58
3 May 1994 55.72 42.30
10 May 1994 56.35 42.42
17 May 1994 56.86 43.28
24 May 1994 56.87 43.05
31 May 1994 56.66 42.62
7 June 1994 56.66 42.15
14 June 1994 57.72 43.60
21 June 1994 58.19 43.82
28 June 1994 57.54 42.62
5 July 1994 58.25 43.47
12 July 1994 58.74 44.50
19 July 1994 59.74 44.88
26 July 1994 59.77 44.58
2 August 1994 59.44 43.71
9 August 1994 60.02 44.45
16 August 1994 60.63 44.51
23 August 1994 61.07 44.48
30 August 1994 61.50 45.58
6 September 1994 62.25 46.47
13 September 1994 62.47 46.76
20 September 1994 62.58 46.94
27 September 1994 62.00 46.92
4 October 1994 62.39 46.94
11 October 1994 62.04 46.93
18 October 1994 62.29 47.50
25 October 1994 62.65 48.66
1 November 1994 63.94 50.23
8 November 1994 64.19 51.16
15 November 1994 64.41 51.41
22 November 1994 65.41 52.69
29 November 1994 65.51 51.93
6 December 1994 65.32 52.21
13 December 1994 66.00 51.87
20 December 1994 65.04 52.41
27 December 1994 66.01 52.87
3 January 1995 66.24 53.52
10 January 1995 66.67 54.26
17 January 1995 65.84 54.56
24 January 1995 67.47 56.07
31 January 1995 66.33 55.20
7 February 1995 65.45 52.60
14 February 1995 64.43 50.79
21 February 1995 64.61 51.53
28 February 1995 64.27 49.97
7 March 1995 64.30 50.32
14 March 1995 65.13 50.86
21 March 1995 65.16 50.22
28 March 1995 65.59 51.28
4 April 1995 65.67 51.72
11 April 1995 66.15 51.40
18 April 1995 66.14 51.30
25 April 1995 66.35 50.60
2 May 1995 65.95 50.95
9 May 1995 65.93 50.92
16 May 1995 64.95 50.79
23 May 1995 65.45 51.56
30 May 1995 65.55 51.84
6 June 1995 64.86 51.88
13 June 1995 64.65 52.41
20 June 1995 64.57 52.56
27 June 1995 64.79 53.14
11 July 1995 64.42 53.51
18 July 1995 64.52 53.92
25 July 1995 62.90 52.80
1 August 1995 63.03 53.17
8 August 1995 63.64 54.63
15 August 1995 63.70 54.99
22 August 1995 64.78 55.35
29 August 1995 64.03 55.00
5 September 1995 63.24 52.63
12 September 1995 63.05 53.09
19 September 1995 62.87 52.38
26 September 1995 62.85 53.28
3 October 1995 62.48 52.51
10 October 1995 61.44 51.78
17 October 1995 61.24 51.22
24 October 1995 61.70 51.28
31 October 1995 61.27 52.10
7 November 1995 62.21 52.86
14 November 1995 62.43 52.34
21 November 1995 62.41 51.95
28 November 1995 62.09 51.61
5 December 1995 62.41 51.88
12 December 1995 63.04 52.50
19 December 1995 62.57 52.23
26 December 1995 63.21 52.03
2 January 1996 63.20 51.67
9 January 1996 63.53 50.85
16 January 1996 62.09 50.67
23 January 1996 61.66 51.40
30 January 1996 61.62 51.03
6 February 1996 62.81 51.65
13 February 1996 63.83 51.57
20 February 1996 63.42 51.45
27 February 1996 62.98 51.44
5 March 1996 62.31 51.20
12 March 1996 62.59 51.67
19 March 1996 63.87 51.93
26 March 1996 64.09 52.28
2 April 1996 63.50 51.89
9 April 1996 64.11 51.69
16 April 1996 64.39 51.73
23 April 1996 64.65 52.10
30 April 1996 65.04 52.12
7 May 1996 65.02 52.91
14 May 1996 65.42 53.03
21 May 1996 65.05 52.37
28 May 1996 64.88 51.28
4 June 1996 63.72 50.66
11 June 1996 63.04 49.30
18 June 1996 62.79 47.99
25 June 1996 62.31 47.00
2 July 1996 62.57 47.33
9 July 1996 62.59 47.35
16 July 1996 62.75 46.78
23 July 1996 62.81 47.26
30 July 1996 62.83 47.25
6 August 1996 62.93 46.92
13 August 1996 63.41 47.13
20 August 1996 64.65 47.39
27 August 1996 64.14 47.35
3 September 1996 64.62 48.13
10 September 1996 64.38 47.69
17 September 1996 64.09 46.85
24 September 1996 63.68 46.91
1 October 1996 62.92 46.50
8 October 1996 64.09 46.21
15 October 1996 63.58 46.40
22 October 1996 62.97 46.16
29 October 1996 62.93 46.31
5 November 1996 62.01 45.87
12 November 1996 62.73 46.69
19 November 1996 63.23 46.73
26 November 1996 64.82 47.61
3 December 1996 64.77 47.16
10 December 1996 64.10 46.55
17 December 1996 64.87 46.45
24 December 1996 64.96 46.79
31 December 1996 64.19 46.93
7 January 1997 65.56 48.00
14 January 1997 66.27 48.98
21 January 1997 66.38 49.46
28 January 1997 65.11 49.31
4 February 1997 64.96 49.72
11 February 1997 64.64 49.95
18 February 1997 64.40 50.39
25 February 1997 63.85 50.79
4 March 1997 63.75 51.43
11 March 1997 63.89 50.63
18 March 1997 63.81 50.57
25 March 1997 63.18 50.29
1 April 1997 62.63 50.08
8 April 1997 61.73 48.61
15 April 1997 61.49 48.43
22 April 1997 62.01 48.95
29 April 1997 61.48 49.01
6 May 1997 61.57 49.80
13 May 1997 62.81 50.65
20 May 1997 62.18 50.88
27 May 1997 61.48 50.62
3 June 1997 61.87 49.98
10 June 1997 61.47 50.41
17 June 1997 61.41 50.34
24 June 1997 60.94 50.12
1 July 1997 60.82 49.73
8 July 1997 60.59 49.71
15 July 1997 60.53 49.67
22 July 1997 60.80 49.75
29 July 1997 62.20 51.56
5 August 1997 62.79 51.26
12 August 1997 62.98 51.12
19 August 1997 62.64 50.15
26 August 1997 62.25 50.10
2 September 1997 62.22 49.24
9 September 1997 62.10 49.01
16 September 1997 62.05 48.63
23 September 1997 62.27 49.13
30 September 1997 62.44 49.20
7 October 1997 62.55 48.14
14 October 1997 61.90 48.02
21 October 1997 61.86 47.39
28 October 1997 62.03 46.52
4 November 1997 61.98 47.12
11 November 1997 61.91 47.01
18 November 1997 61.79 47.08
25 November 1997 60.83 47.20
2 December 1997 60.17 46.79
9 December 1997 58.93 45.62
16 December 1997 57.53 44.99
23 December 1997 57.40 44.66
30 December 1997 56.72 44.68
6 January 1998 55.93 44.24
13 January 1998 54.35 43.63
20 January 1998 54.57 43.67
27 January 1998 55.18 44.31
3 February 1998 55.54 44.29
10 February 1998 54.99 43.31
17 February 1998 55.06 43.19
24 February 1998 54.57 42.63
3 March 1998 55.13 43.01
10 March 1998 54.94 43.53
17 March 1998 54.64 43.94
24 March 1998 56.20 43.84
31 March 1998 55.68 43.88
7 April 1998 55.23 43.86
14 April 1998 55.14 43.89
21 April 1998 55.14 44.05
28 April 1998 55.42 44.66
5 May 1998 55.44 44.31
12 May 1998 54.84 43.34
19 May 1998 54.23 42.46
26 May 1998 54.14 42.74
2 June 1998 55.09 42.60
9 June 1998 54.72 42.30
16 June 1998 53.78 41.65
23 June 1998 54.52 41.81
30 June 1998 53.69 41.27
7 July 1998 53.61 40.82
14 July 1998 53.60 40.86
21 July 1998 54.20 41.91
28 July 1998 54.03 42.39
4 August 1998 52.96 40.41
11 August 1998 53.27 40.29
18 August 1998 53.33 40.32
25 August 1998 52.91 40.19
1 September 1998 52.40 40.13
8 September 1998 52.51 40.22
15 September 1998 52.66 39.93
22 September 1998 52.51 39.37
29 September 1998 52.08 39.37
6 October 1998 50.74 37.31
13 October 1998 50.26 37.72
20 October 1998 49.64 37.51
27 October 1998 49.83 36.78
3 November 1998 49.91 36.88
10 November 1998 49.89 36.66
17 November 1998 49.81 36.38
24 November 1998 49.44 36.58
1 December 1998 48.87 36.35
8 December 1998 48.74 35.56
15 December 1998 48.58 35.29
22 December 1998 48.44 35.19
29 December 1998 48.03 34.95
5 January 1999 48.15 34.36
12 January 1999 48.81 36.32
19 January 1999 49.01 36.17
26 January 1999 48.72 36.00
2 February 1999 48.75 36.34
9 February 1999 49.47 37.65
16 February 1999 48.99 37.26
23 February 1999 48.69 37.25
2 March 1999 48.17 36.55
9 March 1999 48.56 36.12
16 March 1999 48.92 36.15
23 March 1999 49.49 36.75
30 March 1999 49.50 36.83
6 April 1999 50.18 36.22
13 April 1999 50.45 36.51
20 April 1999 51.24 37.84
27 April 1999 51.57 37.73
4 May 1999 52.45 38.34
11 May 1999 52.34 38.95
18 May 1999 52.90 38.99
25 May 1999 52.55 38.94
1 June 1999 52.32 37.25
8 June 1999 53.02 37.42
15 June 1999 53.47 38.21
22 June 1999 53.42 38.47
29 June 1999 53.87 38.94
6 July 1999 54.59 39.43
13 July 1999 54.73 40.33
20 July 1999 55.30 40.58
27 July 1999 55.25 39.98
3 August 1999 55.54 39.96
10 August 1999 56.79 41.56
17 August 1999 56.77 41.80
24 August 1999 56.23 41.48
31 August 1999 56.23 41.53
14 September 1999 57.67 42.63
21 September 1999 57.87 42.71
28 September 1999 57.74 42.00
5 October 1999 57.37 42.31
12 October 1999 56.34 42.05
19 October 1999 57.03 42.32
26 October 1999 57.49 42.47
2 November 1999 57.41 43.00
9 November 1999 57.68 43.41
16 November 1999 57.76 42.88
23 November 1999 57.78 43.21
30 November 1999 58.17 43.62
7 December 1999 58.32 44.31
14 December 1999 58.08 44.00
21 December 1999 58.06 44.68
28 December 1999 58.06 45.04
4 January 2000 58.27 45.88
11 January 2000 58.48 45.82
18 January 2000 58.63 45.71
25 January 2000 59.69 45.83
1 February 2000 59.43 45.33
8 February 2000 59.21 44.72
15 February 2000 59.89 44.78
22 February 2000 59.75 44.17
29 February 2000 59.63 43.82
7 March 2000 60.28 44.04
14 March 2000 60.54 43.65
21 March 2000 59.99 44.10
28 March 2000 59.71 43.45
4 April 2000 58.71 43.00
11 April 2000 58.18 42.54
18 April 2000 58.41 41.91
25 April 2000 58.31 42.10
2 May 2000 57.82 41.41
9 May 2000 59.09 42.85
16 May 2000 59.68 43.01
23 May 2000 60.37 43.17
30 May 2000 60.76 42.99
6 June 2000 59.53 41.33
13 June 2000 59.67 41.47
20 June 2000 60.12 42.32
27 June 2000 59.80 42.32
11 July 2000 59.27 42.01
18 July 2000 59.27 41.97
25 July 2000 58.61 42.47
1 August 2000 58.63 42.26
8 August 2000 59.32 41.98
15 August 2000 59.69 42.34
22 August 2000 60.44 42.33
29 August 2000 60.58 42.74
5 September 2000 60.88 43.07
12 September 2000 61.64 43.76
19 September 2000 62.43 43.79
26 September 2000 62.29 43.77
3 October 2000 61.70 42.97
10 October 2000 60.32 41.57
17 October 2000 60.39 41.22
24 October 2000 59.70 40.55
31 October 2000 58.83 40.30
7 November 2000 58.69 39.88
14 November 2000 59.67 39.30
21 November 2000 60.00 38.81
28 November 2000 60.42 39.21
5 December 2000 60.77 39.45
12 December 2000 61.50 40.53
19 December 2000 61.65 40.57
26 December 2000 61.58 40.53
2 January 2001 60.87 40.22
9 January 2001 61.73 40.12
16 January 2001 62.20 41.10
23 January 2001 62.25 41.34
30 January 2001 61.25 41.59
6 February 2001 59.74 40.32
13 February 2001 58.81 39.85
20 February 2001 58.20 39.61
27 February 2001 57.30 39.12
6 March 2001 57.53 39.66
13 March 2001 57.64 39.44
20 March 2001 57.21 38.74
27 March 2001 57.47 38.83
3 April 2001 55.95 37.94
10 April 2001 56.98 38.26
17 April 2001 57.70 38.71
24 April 2001 57.75 38.57
1 May 2001 57.86 38.75
8 May 2001 57.77 38.94
15 May 2001 57.86 38.65
22 May 2001 58.15 38.89
29 May 2001 56.97 38.63
5 June 2001 56.94 38.03
12 June 2001 56.59 37.72
19 June 2001 55.23 37.14
26 June 2001 54.68 37.03
3 July 2001 53.14 36.74
10 July 2001 53.55 36.67
17 July 2001 53.02 36.60
24 July 2001 52.88 36.11
31 July 2001 53.03 35.93
7 August 2001 52.67 35.39
14 August 2001 52.51 35.16
21 August 2001 53.07 35.80
28 August 2001 52.34 35.79
4 September 2001 51.76 35.44
11 September 2001 51.05 34.52
18 September 2001 51.03 34.67
25 September 2001 48.78 34.04
2 October 2001 48.68 33.83
9 October 2001 47.76 33.33
16 October 2001 47.60 33.49
23 October 2001 47.59 32.84
30 October 2001 47.91 33.05
6 November 2001 46.77 32.11
13 November 2001 47.30 33.17
20 November 2001 46.98 34.36
27 November 2001 46.79 34.31
4 December 2001 47.45 34.44
11 December 2001 46.98 33.29
18 December 2001 46.88 32.82
8 January 2002 47.63 34.63
15 January 2002 47.54 35.41
22 January 2002 47.18 34.87
29 January 2002 47.34 34.71
5 February 2002 48.03 35.53
12 February 2002 48.25 35.18
19 February 2002 48.23 35.34
26 February 2002 48.75 34.65
5 March 2002 50.44 36.17
12 March 2002 52.19 36.82
19 March 2002 52.97 36.97
26 March 2002 52.99 36.64
2 April 2002 53.14 36.94
9 April 2002 53.23 37.17
16 April 2002 52.22 36.55
23 April 2002 53.38 38.08
30 April 2002 53.06 38.13
7 May 2002 52.62 37.95
14 May 2002 53.37 38.14
21 May 2002 52.96 37.66
28 May 2002 53.35 37.82
4 June 2002 53.96 38.25
11 June 2002 55.02 38.74
18 June 2002 56.27 38.74
25 June 2002 57.18 38.54
2 July 2002 57.10 39.36
9 July 2002 55.60 39.07
16 July 2002 55.82 39.06
23 July 2002 55.32 38.24
30 July 2002 54.60 37.15
6 August 2002 53.72 36.34
13 August 2002 53.57 36.28
20 August 2002 54.60 36.39
27 August 2002 54.82 36.77
3 September 2002 54.60 36.85
10 September 2002 54.77 36.95
17 September 2002 55.20 37.05
24 September 2002 55.51 36.61
1 October 2002 55.44 36.55
8 October 2002 54.84 36.70
15 October 2002 55.03 37.07
22 October 2002 55.52 37.33
29 October 2002 55.87 38.09
5 November 2002 55.73 37.96
12 November 2002 55.29 37.76
19 November 2002 55.42 37.59
26 November 2002 56.56 38.16
3 December 2002 56.82 38.54
10 December 2002 56.49 38.00
17 December 2002 57.74 37.63
24 December 2002 58.46 37.80
31 December 2002 58.21 37.49
7 January 2003 58.74 38.08
14 January 2003 59.74 38.99
21 January 2003 60.79 39.64
28 January 2003 61.34 40.08
4 February 2003 61.88 40.55
11 February 2003 62.58 40.55
18 February 2003 62.80 40.71
25 February 2003 65.99 41.43
4 March 2003 64.56 41.41
11 March 2003 63.60 41.11
18 March 2003 62.45 40.64
25 March 2003 61.53 41.03
1 April 2003 61.04 39.98
8 April 2003 60.41 39.78
15 April 2003 60.41 39.81
22 April 2003 60.59 40.15
29 April 2003 59.07 39.74
6 May 2003 58.40 39.68
13 May 2003 58.45 39.84
20 May 2003 59.65 40.64
27 May 2003 59.57 40.60
3 June 2003 60.17 41.24
10 June 2003 60.87 41.09
17 June 2003 60.48 40.29
24 June 2003 61.06 40.47
1 July 2003 60.88 40.29
8 July 2003 61.57 41.00
15 July 2003 62.70 42.40
22 July 2003 62.78 41.91
29 July 2003 62.80 42.83
5 August 2003 63.67 43.67
12 August 2003 63.84 42.94
19 August 2003 63.91 42.50
26 August 2003 65.72 43.33
2 September 2003 66.04 43.11
9 September 2003 66.70 44.07
16 September 2003 66.56 43.78
23 September 2003 67.02 44.47
30 September 2003 67.79 44.26
7 October 2003 68.96 45.47
14 October 2003 70.72 46.76
21 October 2003 71.41 47.54
28 October 2003 72.06 47.18
4 November 2003 71.74 48.08
11 November 2003 72.69 49.17
18 November 2003 73.20 49.66
25 November 2003 71.60 49.18
2 December 2003 72.42 50.25
9 December 2003 74.77 52.78
16 December 2003 74.75 53.32
23 December 2003 73.95 54.42
30 December 2003 74.29 55.96
6 January 2004 75.25 56.54
13 January 2004 77.98 58.04
20 January 2004 77.72 57.27
27 January 2004 78.50 57.74
3 February 2004 78.76 59.07
10 February 2004 80.07 63.35
17 February 2004 81.70 64.70
24 February 2004 81.76 65.21
2 March 2004 83.33 67.59
9 March 2004 82.94 65.87
16 March 2004 83.08 66.06
23 March 2004 84.27 68.05
30 March 2004 83.52 67.12
6 April 2004 83.94 65.37
13 April 2004 84.13 64.06
20 April 2004 83.76 64.10
27 April 2004 82.04 62.19
4 May 2004 81.38 61.36
11 May 2004 79.64 57.35
18 May 2004 80.18 58.23
25 May 2004 80.61 59.82
1 June 2004 80.98 61.79
8 June 2004 80.30 61.24
15 June 2004 78.90 58.76
22 June 2004 79.04 60.97
29 June 2004 78.66 60.75
6 July 2004 79.55 62.11
13 July 2004 81.56 66.64
20 July 2004 81.47 66.03
27 July 2004 83.18 64.90
3 August 2004 83.93 65.94
10 August 2004 83.47 64.92
17 August 2004 85.23 67.43
24 August 2004 84.87 65.53
31 August 2004 83.86 64.72
7 September 2004 82.60 62.04
14 September 2004 83.75 63.38
21 September 2004 83.77 64.25
28 September 2004 83.80 66.74
5 October 2004 84.66 68.83
12 October 2004 85.96 72.46
19 October 2004 82.98 67.67
26 October 2004 83.59 66.89
2 November 2004 83.95 68.56
9 November 2004 85.17 70.80
16 November 2004 84.03 70.42
23 November 2004 83.73 70.76
30 November 2004 85.28 71.55
7 December 2004 83.32 68.40
14 December 2004 83.14 67.24
21 December 2004 83.63 69.49
28 December 2004 82.89 70.18
4 January 2005 82.67 70.33
11 January 2005 82.14 66.27
18 January 2005 82.58 66.80
25 January 2005 83.07 67.97
1 February 2005 82.37 68.37
8 February 2005 83.04 67.69
15 February 2005 83.61 68.30
22 February 2005 84.67 70.07
1 March 2005 86.72 70.41
8 March 2005 86.31 70.67
15 March 2005 87.13 70.85
22 March 2005 87.75 70.65
29 March 2005 86.75 69.61
5 April 2005 88.32 70.39
12 April 2005 87.79 72.54
19 April 2005 85.88 69.55
26 April 2005 86.36 70.34
3 May 2005 84.17 68.67
10 May 2005 82.68 67.77
17 May 2005 81.66 66.13
24 May 2005 80.81 66.39
31 May 2005 81.75 67.28
7 June 2005 81.32 63.65
14 June 2005 81.39 62.96
21 June 2005 82.50 63.86
28 June 2005 82.60 62.45
5 July 2005 81.49 60.96
12 July 2005 83.20 62.73
19 July 2005 83.22 62.80
26 July 2005 82.04 62.82
2 August 2005 83.67 63.95
9 August 2005 85.76 67.37
16 August 2005 86.97 69.08
23 August 2005 88.32 69.48
30 August 2005 88.40 69.54
6 September 2005 92.06 70.59
13 September 2005 93.50 71.12
20 September 2005 93.64 69.78
27 September 2005 96.19 72.38
4 October 2005 96.49 70.96
11 October 2005 96.03 71.71
18 October 2005 95.80 71.86
25 October 2005 93.49 70.41
1 November 2005 91.54 71.06
8 November 2005 90.82 73.83
15 November 2005 91.15 74.58
22 November 2005 91.96 75.57
29 November 2005 92.30 76.13
6 December 2005 94.78 79.52
13 December 2005 95.32 80.52
20 December 2005 94.53 80.13
27 December 2005 94.08 79.43
3 January 2006 93.44 79.92
10 January 2006 92.88 79.75
17 January 2006 94.78 82.22
24 January 2006 96.08 84.16
31 January 2006 96.97 87.00
7 February 2006 98.85 90.83
14 February 2006 95.79 87.33
21 February 2006 94.16 85.54
28 February 2006 93.86 86.26
7 March 2006 94.57 88.42
14 March 2006 93.95 86.60
21 March 2006 94.37 89.36
28 March 2006 95.70 91.70
4 April 2006 96.32 93.37
11 April 2006 97.13 96.53
18 April 2006 98.63 98.40
25 April 2006 101.28 102.32
2 May 2006 101.60 103.44
9 May 2006 102.40 105.91
16 May 2006 103.12 109.16
23 May 2006 100.98 103.30
30 May 2006 103.10 106.57
6 June 2006 102.75 104.14
13 June 2006 101.54 98.85
20 June 2006 100.62 95.50
27 June 2006 100.66 96.23
11 July 2006 101.98 101.71
18 July 2006 103.71 103.48
25 July 2006 100.51 97.25
1 August 2006 104.20 102.58
8 August 2006 102.22 98.01
15 August 2006 101.73 96.79
22 August 2006 101.59 98.67
29 August 2006 101.24 99.72
5 September 2006 100.14 100.64
12 September 2006 100.17 102.62
19 September 2006 99.11 100.97
26 September 2006 99.01 104.18
3 October 2006 98.36 105.95
10 October 2006 99.86 107.16
17 October 2006 100.46 111.41
24 October 2006 101.13 111.15
31 October 2006 101.82 111.41
7 November 2006 102.06 113.05
14 November 2006 101.05 108.22
21 November 2006 101.25 108.11
28 November 2006 103.16 112.25
5 December 2006 105.07 115.38
12 December 2006 104.66 116.10
19 December 2006 104.33 114.96
2 January 2007 105.28 115.66
9 January 2007 102.67 109.70
16 January 2007 103.53 111.81
23 January 2007 104.81 113.03
30 January 2007 105.54 114.07
6 February 2007 105.91 113.44
13 February 2007 106.23 114.11
20 February 2007 108.18 118.53
27 February 2007 110.01 124.84
6 March 2007 108.47 122.15
13 March 2007 108.79 125.86
20 March 2007 109.64 129.81
27 March 2007 110.37 129.12
3 April 2007 112.31 128.86
10 April 2007 112.91 132.55
17 April 2007 114.06 132.79
24 April 2007 114.26 132.97
1 May 2007 115.00 133.04
8 May 2007 114.69 134.02
15 May 2007 113.77 131.54
22 May 2007 114.65 129.91
29 May 2007 115.03 128.53
5 June 2007 115.93 131.58
12 June 2007 114.91 129.03
19 June 2007 115.87 130.40
26 June 2007 115.76 128.56
3 July 2007 115.46 129.80
10 July 2007 117.11 132.01
17 July 2007 116.77 130.45
24 July 2007 118.18 136.41
31 July 2007 116.60 130.16
7 August 2007 115.50 131.28
14 August 2007 114.61 128.51
21 August 2007 112.00 122.77
28 August 2007 111.91 125.80
4 September 2007 113.33 127.79
11 September 2007 112.10 122.60
18 September 2007 115.28 127.57
25 September 2007 117.65 132.69
2 October 2007 116.66 132.82
9 October 2007 116.23 132.20
16 October 2007 119.17 137.97
23 October 2007 118.12 132.93
30 October 2007 119.15 133.78
6 November 2007 118.73 131.80
13 November 2007 118.21 129.03
20 November 2007 116.90 124.44
27 November 2007 116.82 122.91
4 December 2007 115.30 124.13
11 December 2007 113.69 121.47
18 December 2007 112.31 117.41
8 January 2008 117.54 127.92
15 January 2008 119.26 130.93
22 January 2008 117.08 126.72
29 January 2008 116.52 127.68
5 February 2008 117.76 133.64
12 February 2008 119.76 136.54
19 February 2008 121.22 136.75
26 February 2008 124.42 141.77
4 March 2008 128.01 150.42
11 March 2008 126.69 146.90
18 March 2008 126.15 145.17
25 March 2008 123.64 139.80
1 April 2008 125.71 145.40
8 April 2008 129.75 154.83
15 April 2008 131.06 154.95
22 April 2008 132.10 154.91
29 April 2008 133.27 156.65
6 May 2008 133.05 152.84
13 May 2008 133.84 151.44
20 May 2008 134.84 151.48
27 May 2008 133.19 146.00
3 June 2008 130.99 139.32
10 June 2008 132.73 140.53
17 June 2008 132.37 138.41
24 June 2008 133.75 142.83
1 July 2008 134.50 141.99
8 July 2008 133.89 139.83
15 July 2008 135.75 146.35
22 July 2008 132.88 142.90
29 July 2008 129.92 141.42
5 August 2008 127.73 136.78
12 August 2008 123.09 128.70
19 August 2008 120.58 125.98
26 August 2008 122.83 131.67
2 September 2008 122.31 129.07
9 September 2008 116.24 116.11
16 September 2008 115.27 115.41
23 September 2008 117.13 116.34
30 September 2008 112.57 111.48
7 October 2008 103.60 95.95
14 October 2008 96.39 88.86
21 October 2008 88.77 78.14
28 October 2008 81.97 69.81
4 November 2008 78.69 68.56
11 November 2008 77.78 67.72
18 November 2008 73.36 61.10
25 November 2008 69.90 63.67
2 December 2008 67.63 61.71
9 December 2008 64.99 64.28

Note: The Journal of Commerce (JOC) industrial price index is based almost entirely on industrial commodities, with a small weight given to energy commodities. Copyright for Journal of Commerce (JOC) data is held by CIBCR, 1994.


Figure: Commodity Research Bureau
Ratio scale, 1967 = 100
Period Spot industrials Futures
8 January 1991 301.10 219.65
15 January 1991 298.80 221.60
22 January 1991 298.00 217.13
29 January 1991 295.00 215.21
5 February 1991 294.40 213.90
12 February 1991 293.80 213.61
19 February 1991 292.40 213.08
26 February 1991 294.60 212.56
5 March 1991 295.90 220.82
12 March 1991 292.70 219.95
19 March 1991 290.20 218.72
26 March 1991 291.30 217.28
2 April 1991 291.30 222.20
9 April 1991 294.70 220.85
16 April 1991 295.00 220.57
23 April 1991 295.30 217.95
30 April 1991 293.90 216.18
7 May 1991 291.40 215.82
14 May 1991 290.30 214.32
21 May 1991 291.80 215.91
28 May 1991 288.10 216.98
4 June 1991 286.40 217.19
11 June 1991 286.60 216.17
18 June 1991 287.40 213.35
25 June 1991 283.30 210.79
2 July 1991 281.70 207.32
9 July 1991 280.10 206.18
16 July 1991 278.80 209.01
23 July 1991 279.50 211.93
30 July 1991 279.80 212.89
6 August 1991 280.00 212.77
13 August 1991 278.30 208.63
20 August 1991 276.20 204.68
27 August 1991 273.50 210.59
3 September 1991 273.00 211.87
10 September 1991 271.90 213.10
17 September 1991 271.50 215.15
24 September 1991 271.56 217.57
1 October 1991 272.31 216.41
8 October 1991 272.19 216.69
15 October 1991 271.84 216.30
22 October 1991 271.63 219.80
29 October 1991 270.76 218.49
5 November 1991 270.32 217.80
12 November 1991 269.50 213.94
19 November 1991 270.85 214.44
26 November 1991 272.66 213.68
3 December 1991 273.46 212.90
10 December 1991 268.91 210.81
17 December 1991 268.35 210.33
24 December 1991 268.56 209.93
31 December 1991 267.25 208.08
7 January 1992 267.05 207.23
14 January 1992 266.34 208.92
21 January 1992 265.60 210.28
28 January 1992 263.20 211.32
4 February 1992 262.55 212.33
11 February 1992 262.30 211.78
18 February 1992 262.38 210.11
25 February 1992 263.41 208.17
3 March 1992 264.95 210.88
10 March 1992 264.94 212.42
17 March 1992 267.35 211.56
24 March 1992 271.51 211.46
31 March 1992 273.34 209.77
7 April 1992 277.32 208.22
14 April 1992 277.59 206.08
21 April 1992 276.98 206.86
28 April 1992 280.69 205.37
5 May 1992 281.56 206.91
12 May 1992 281.36 208.78
19 May 1992 281.35 207.93
26 May 1992 281.62 207.59
2 June 1992 283.48 211.45
9 June 1992 283.83 212.54
16 June 1992 283.75 209.04
23 June 1992 284.12 209.11
30 June 1992 286.62 209.26
7 July 1992 285.78 205.28
14 July 1992 285.96 205.04
21 July 1992 284.77 203.55
28 July 1992 284.77 204.46
4 August 1992 284.59 203.89
11 August 1992 283.44 199.89
18 August 1992 283.61 201.15
25 August 1992 282.19 201.22
1 September 1992 280.83 200.87
8 September 1992 282.97 203.19
15 September 1992 290.01 202.96
22 September 1992 284.86 201.60
29 September 1992 280.29 199.52
6 October 1992 279.23 200.67
13 October 1992 277.67 200.93
20 October 1992 277.09 202.57
27 October 1992 276.01 200.12
3 November 1992 274.72 201.50
10 November 1992 265.66 199.51
17 November 1992 265.05 202.34
24 November 1992 265.30 202.99
1 December 1992 266.82 202.93
8 December 1992 267.29 201.81
15 December 1992 267.31 202.35
22 December 1992 266.15 204.13
29 December 1992 265.42 201.96
5 January 1993 266.58 201.47
12 January 1993 269.06 202.71
19 January 1993 269.15 202.06
26 January 1993 268.47 199.63
2 February 1993 268.79 199.59
9 February 1993 269.62 199.67
16 February 1993 270.88 202.10
23 February 1993 269.47 203.84
2 March 1993 267.90 204.65
9 March 1993 268.32 207.68
16 March 1993 266.91 209.39
23 March 1993 266.29 211.93
30 March 1993 265.87 211.28
6 April 1993 263.72 211.47
13 April 1993 262.04 211.84
20 April 1993 260.97 208.46
27 April 1993 261.03 210.85
4 May 1993 258.95 207.96
11 May 1993 258.40 208.05
18 May 1993 256.74 210.64
25 May 1993 258.60 209.90
1 June 1993 257.07 207.00
8 June 1993 257.77 205.96
15 June 1993 256.22 203.34
22 June 1993 258.97 205.62
29 June 1993 255.09 205.14
6 July 1993 255.99 217.30
13 July 1993 256.96 214.86
20 July 1993 257.06 217.33
27 July 1993 257.06 218.76
3 August 1993 257.47 223.27
10 August 1993 255.89 215.10
17 August 1993 254.52 213.86
24 August 1993 255.48 216.43
31 August 1993 254.84 217.19
7 September 1993 254.73 213.27
14 September 1993 253.22 212.35
21 September 1993 251.94 215.98
28 September 1993 251.65 215.37
5 October 1993 253.06 217.15
12 October 1993 255.98 220.27
19 October 1993 256.47 218.17
26 October 1993 255.08 217.70
2 November 1993 257.10 218.48
9 November 1993 257.28 217.75
16 November 1993 258.43 222.10
23 November 1993 259.27 222.18
30 November 1993 259.24 217.99
7 December 1993 262.58 222.34
14 December 1993 264.02 224.18
21 December 1993 264.96 224.05
28 December 1993 265.40 225.38
4 January 1994 265.81 226.74
11 January 1994 266.80 226.30
18 January 1994 270.50 227.42
25 January 1994 269.84 225.78
1 February 1994 272.19 226.99
8 February 1994 274.13 227.23
15 February 1994 274.28 227.22
22 February 1994 277.88 227.84
1 March 1994 277.14 227.35
8 March 1994 276.75 226.19
15 March 1994 278.85 229.31
22 March 1994 280.77 229.41
29 March 1994 281.91 226.87
5 April 1994 277.79 224.38
12 April 1994 279.71 222.63
19 April 1994 280.30 220.21
26 April 1994 284.49 221.65
3 May 1994 286.84 224.74
10 May 1994 286.21 224.94
17 May 1994 290.06 229.53
24 May 1994 290.96 234.69
31 May 1994 287.39 235.35
7 June 1994 288.31 228.96
14 June 1994 292.52 235.30
21 June 1994 293.16 234.29
28 June 1994 289.81 230.40
5 July 1994 292.01 226.73
12 July 1994 298.49 231.53
19 July 1994 302.65 234.20
26 July 1994 303.57 232.52
2 August 1994 300.24 233.16
9 August 1994 304.27 231.52
16 August 1994 304.31 229.17
23 August 1994 306.22 228.91
30 August 1994 310.04 231.53
6 September 1994 309.72 233.22
13 September 1994 311.66 232.53
20 September 1994 315.10 230.97
27 September 1994 316.68 231.65
4 October 1994 318.05 230.30
11 October 1994 317.53 227.88
18 October 1994 318.07 229.72
25 October 1994 319.58 232.25
1 November 1994 324.00 233.53
8 November 1994 325.64 233.97
15 November 1994 330.56 233.74
22 November 1994 333.44 231.15
29 November 1994 333.22 230.59
6 December 1994 336.88 227.99
13 December 1994 339.06 229.23
20 December 1994 339.88 232.49
27 December 1994 342.72 236.19
3 January 1995 344.68 234.76
10 January 1995 346.54 233.87
17 January 1995 346.52 235.58
24 January 1995 351.41 235.61
31 January 1995 349.52 232.78
7 February 1995 340.35 231.51
14 February 1995 336.07 234.62
21 February 1995 340.73 235.43
28 February 1995 340.92 234.25
7 March 1995 343.90 234.68
14 March 1995 344.59 235.67
21 March 1995 345.31 234.40
28 March 1995 346.40 232.92
4 April 1995 345.22 235.37
11 April 1995 348.78 237.28
18 April 1995 350.19 236.82
25 April 1995 353.95 236.63
2 May 1995 352.11 235.64
9 May 1995 351.52 231.01
16 May 1995 351.52 231.67
23 May 1995 352.03 236.48
30 May 1995 354.76 232.75
6 June 1995 353.02 234.06
13 June 1995 350.93 232.68
20 June 1995 353.87 236.66
27 June 1995 355.27 234.56
4 July 1995 354.39 233.38
11 July 1995 351.95 230.50
18 July 1995 344.72 234.00
25 July 1995 338.87 233.90
1 August 1995 336.49 233.92
8 August 1995 337.74 232.55
15 August 1995 338.49 234.28
22 August 1995 341.67 239.37
29 August 1995 342.00 239.33
5 September 1995 337.13 241.36
12 September 1995 333.23 240.33
19 September 1995 332.19 243.40
26 September 1995 335.49 241.16
3 October 1995 332.64 240.49
10 October 1995 332.54 239.74
17 October 1995 331.61 240.46
24 October 1995 332.11 241.66
31 October 1995 333.96 242.22
7 November 1995 339.05 244.34
14 November 1995 341.10 242.02
21 November 1995 339.95 241.54
28 November 1995 339.44 241.12
5 December 1995 336.97 244.08
12 December 1995 334.80 243.97
19 December 1995 331.32 245.44
26 December 1995 330.66 244.00
2 January 1996 331.53 244.45
9 January 1996 323.43 246.28
16 January 1996 329.57 238.98
23 January 1996 329.40 241.98
30 January 1996 328.50 245.45
6 February 1996 328.11 246.61
13 February 1996 325.50 249.68
20 February 1996 327.62 249.64
27 February 1996 328.85 249.25
5 March 1996 329.75 243.15
12 March 1996 330.12 246.89
19 March 1996 330.03 249.90
26 March 1996 331.56 252.66
2 April 1996 330.75 252.38
9 April 1996 331.75 255.82
16 April 1996 332.11 255.84
23 April 1996 335.13 261.07
30 April 1996 338.08 256.09
7 May 1996 340.06 259.34
14 May 1996 339.81 260.22
21 May 1996 342.67 257.59
28 May 1996 344.04 255.63
4 June 1996 343.69 250.05
11 June 1996 338.56 250.19
18 June 1996 336.94 251.40
25 June 1996 330.64 247.71
2 July 1996 332.13 248.66
9 July 1996 332.68 250.12
16 July 1996 333.11 247.91
23 July 1996 333.85 241.32
30 July 1996 339.51 240.51
6 August 1996 340.56 244.16
13 August 1996 343.52 249.91
20 August 1996 343.14 250.65
27 August 1996 346.05 249.76
3 September 1996 348.08 248.98
10 September 1996 346.47 248.14
17 September 1996 342.77 244.40
24 September 1996 339.79 245.31
1 October 1996 338.60 244.20
8 October 1996 339.73 249.14
15 October 1996 336.66 246.24
22 October 1996 330.55 244.96
29 October 1996 328.28 241.11
5 November 1996 328.24 236.13
12 November 1996 328.42 240.49
19 November 1996 330.95 245.51
26 November 1996 335.78 244.85
3 December 1996 332.78 241.63
10 December 1996 331.81 240.87
17 December 1996 330.98 244.54
24 December 1996 333.49 243.81
31 December 1996 334.92 238.20
7 January 1997 335.77 242.38
14 January 1997 340.11 242.31
21 January 1997 340.34 240.84
28 January 1997 340.80 242.27
4 February 1997 340.23 238.66
11 February 1997 343.47 237.58
18 February 1997 345.19 239.31
25 February 1997 345.06 241.62
4 March 1997 344.31 245.82
11 March 1997 341.60 247.14
18 March 1997 339.92 244.34
25 March 1997 339.19 245.49
1 April 1997 337.92 245.83
8 April 1997 333.61 239.98
15 April 1997 332.90 243.31
22 April 1997 332.90 246.54
29 April 1997 333.37 246.68
6 May 1997 332.97 246.04
13 May 1997 338.41 251.30
20 May 1997 339.76 251.00
27 May 1997 337.98 250.72
3 June 1997 338.12 248.44
10 June 1997 338.01 244.63
17 June 1997 338.52 244.89
24 June 1997 335.36 241.44
1 July 1997 335.36 238.70
8 July 1997 332.51 232.96
15 July 1997 332.75 235.15
22 July 1997 332.72 235.09
29 July 1997 339.66 241.81
5 August 1997 341.08 243.60
12 August 1997 341.81 243.09
19 August 1997 338.59 239.92
26 August 1997 338.93 237.69
2 September 1997 339.50 243.66
9 September 1997 337.14 242.31
16 September 1997 336.08 240.85
23 September 1997 339.08 241.46
30 September 1997 336.70 243.06
7 October 1997 334.16 245.69
14 October 1997 334.79 244.53
21 October 1997 333.13 243.77
28 October 1997 331.82 239.00
4 November 1997 331.86 241.61
11 November 1997 328.74 242.65
18 November 1997 327.42 241.03
25 November 1997 322.78 235.69
2 December 1997 318.27 236.89
9 December 1997 310.29 237.11
16 December 1997 307.57 233.01
23 December 1997 308.31 231.95
30 December 1997 306.88 230.50
6 January 1998 304.05 226.42
13 January 1998 295.58 225.90
20 January 1998 298.81 229.19
27 January 1998 300.31 233.20
3 February 1998 296.79 234.09
10 February 1998 295.52 233.26
17 February 1998 295.06 228.83
24 February 1998 299.18 224.14
3 March 1998 302.85 227.46
10 March 1998 302.51 225.51
17 March 1998 305.07 223.72
24 March 1998 304.07 229.73
31 March 1998 300.51 228.89
7 April 1998 298.39 225.36
14 April 1998 298.52 225.24
21 April 1998 300.33 227.23
28 April 1998 306.21 224.80
5 May 1998 306.08 226.46
12 May 1998 304.79 223.38
19 May 1998 305.35 218.46
26 May 1998 304.51 215.92
2 June 1998 305.69 215.13
9 June 1998 302.29 211.51
16 June 1998 297.83 209.02
23 June 1998 296.84 216.47
30 June 1998 296.20 214.63
7 July 1998 294.53 213.78
14 July 1998 294.45 210.10
21 July 1998 296.90 207.68
28 July 1998 295.77 206.63
4 August 1998 294.44 205.57
11 August 1998 291.23 202.90
18 August 1998 290.85 202.62
25 August 1998 287.69 199.77
1 September 1998 283.33 198.67
8 September 1998 285.19 202.52
15 September 1998 280.11 203.74
22 September 1998 277.85 202.78
29 September 1998 281.72 203.71
6 October 1998 278.58 202.93
13 October 1998 279.05 205.14
20 October 1998 274.44 202.95
27 October 1998 272.73 202.94
3 November 1998 274.44 204.95
10 November 1998 269.89 204.63
17 November 1998 267.82 200.90
24 November 1998 267.57 196.41
1 December 1998 267.75 202.94
8 December 1998 267.32 192.38
15 December 1998 266.42 191.67
22 December 1998 265.13 189.11
29 December 1998 263.49 190.94
5 January 1999 263.32 194.49
12 January 1999 262.43 196.62
19 January 1999 263.34 189.86
26 January 1999 262.72 187.60
2 February 1999 262.33 190.68
9 February 1999 263.41 188.95
16 February 1999 260.87 184.33
23 February 1999 256.01 186.21
2 March 1999 253.28 184.46
9 March 1999 253.36 188.15
16 March 1999 252.74 186.84
23 March 1999 256.48 189.87
30 March 1999 258.39 192.82
6 April 1999 256.06 190.79
13 April 1999 255.47 189.09
20 April 1999 258.29 190.99
27 April 1999 257.94 188.59
4 May 1999 257.45 192.66
11 May 1999 257.37 191.76
18 May 1999 261.17 190.47
25 May 1999 255.92 186.24
1 June 1999 255.30 188.01
8 June 1999 256.41 192.45
15 June 1999 258.41 191.41
22 June 1999 256.58 191.55
29 June 1999 258.12 189.37
6 July 1999 260.04 184.92
13 July 1999 263.11 185.70
20 July 1999 263.11 185.70
27 July 1999 261.63 189.16
3 August 1999 260.09 194.11
10 August 1999 263.19 198.49
17 August 1999 266.20 197.23
24 August 1999 264.48 196.76
31 August 1999 265.38 199.35
7 September 1999 266.72 202.48
14 September 1999 270.97 202.28
21 September 1999 272.35 200.13
28 September 1999 273.96 207.97
5 October 1999 264.02 203.17
12 October 1999 264.25 205.20
19 October 1999 266.83 205.09
26 October 1999 268.36 202.68
2 November 1999 268.91 202.70
9 November 1999 269.99 204.41
16 November 1999 268.45 206.32
23 November 1999 271.92 203.05
30 November 1999 272.77 204.07
7 December 1999 268.71 204.75
14 December 1999 266.75 202.57
21 December 1999 264.77 203.88
28 December 1999 266.04 204.10
4 January 2000 267.31 202.46
11 January 2000 269.03 204.04
18 January 2000 266.05 209.25
25 January 2000 267.59 212.02
1 February 2000 259.12 209.65
8 February 2000 260.16 210.38
15 February 2000 261.73 212.61
22 February 2000 261.74 212.02
29 February 2000 258.48 208.78
7 March 2000 260.42 215.66
14 March 2000 260.74 216.26
21 March 2000 262.79 213.79
28 March 2000 259.56 211.90
4 April 2000 257.43 211.36
11 April 2000 259.40 208.29
18 April 2000 258.30 212.75
25 April 2000 256.60 211.95
2 May 2000 263.49 216.85
9 May 2000 264.04 215.72
16 May 2000 264.73 221.15
23 May 2000 269.39 224.08
30 May 2000 267.31 223.39
6 June 2000 264.91 225.00
13 June 2000 263.34 224.88
20 June 2000 260.22 224.32
27 June 2000 258.04 226.02
4 July 2000 256.95 222.13
11 July 2000 253.54 220.11
18 July 2000 255.33 225.34
25 July 2000 255.87 218.20
1 August 2000 254.39 218.67
8 August 2000 255.08 218.90
15 August 2000 254.69 218.69
22 August 2000 256.92 220.08
29 August 2000 257.60 224.63
5 September 2000 258.03 229.75
12 September 2000 258.61 230.74
19 September 2000 257.51 228.26
26 September 2000 260.56 226.33
3 October 2000 260.74 226.94
10 October 2000 259.40 230.40
17 October 2000 258.71 229.92
24 October 2000 254.93 225.35
31 October 2000 253.13 219.28
7 November 2000 256.55 225.51
14 November 2000 252.28 225.17
21 November 2000 251.11 228.15
28 November 2000 251.55 229.04
5 December 2000 254.41 229.57
12 December 2000 255.06 229.91
19 December 2000 257.49 228.27
26 December 2000 256.70 228.85
2 January 2001 253.76 224.99
9 January 2001 255.90 229.00
16 January 2001 256.04 229.86
23 January 2001 254.43 229.33
30 January 2001 251.85 225.50
6 February 2001 249.00 225.93
13 February 2001 249.16 224.34
20 February 2001 248.52 222.25
27 February 2001 245.32 220.23
6 March 2001 248.62 223.97
13 March 2001 248.03 220.62
20 March 2001 245.26 212.83
27 March 2001 244.60 217.57
3 April 2001 242.28 210.63
10 April 2001 240.99 213.57
17 April 2001 245.71 214.93
24 April 2001 245.72 213.16
1 May 2001 244.35 216.12
8 May 2001 243.59 214.60
15 May 2001 245.29 216.00
22 May 2001 244.78 216.19
29 May 2001 245.03 210.52
5 June 2001 247.22 210.21
12 June 2001 246.66 211.98
19 June 2001 244.55 208.47
26 June 2001 244.70 205.77
3 July 2001 245.01 204.64
10 July 2001 245.70 206.55
17 July 2001 242.95 206.13
24 July 2001 243.63 202.76
31 July 2001 243.08 202.70
7 August 2001 238.28 200.16
14 August 2001 238.25 201.99
21 August 2001 236.16 199.78
28 August 2001 237.15 198.79
4 September 2001 235.59 198.71
11 September 2001 231.63 197.62
18 September 2001 228.76 197.82
25 September 2001 224.75 189.10
2 October 2001 222.84 188.63
9 October 2001 220.02 186.71
16 October 2001 221.52 185.24
23 October 2001 221.03 183.60
30 October 2001 214.40 185.68
6 November 2001 214.17 184.94
13 November 2001 218.66 189.94
20 November 2001 220.25 189.52
27 November 2001 223.16 190.23
4 December 2001 223.00 190.48
11 December 2001 224.67 188.91
18 December 2001 221.29 190.33
25 December 2001 219.27 191.59
1 January 2002 217.33 190.61
8 January 2002 220.64 195.03
15 January 2002 219.19 193.00
22 January 2002 218.86 189.09
29 January 2002 219.82 187.31
5 February 2002 220.42 189.76
12 February 2002 222.62 191.72
19 February 2002 220.07 190.15
26 February 2002 225.43 191.25
5 March 2002 227.64 196.80
12 March 2002 230.55 203.29
19 March 2002 232.46 203.53
26 March 2002 232.44 203.52
2 April 2002 232.48 208.23
9 April 2002 228.59 199.20
16 April 2002 231.11 198.05
23 April 2002 230.48 201.00
30 April 2002 227.92 201.16
7 May 2002 228.46 198.67
14 May 2002 231.76 204.81
21 May 2002 232.08 202.03
28 May 2002 236.14 201.49
4 June 2002 238.51 204.98
11 June 2002 242.28 200.13
18 June 2002 244.48 202.04
25 June 2002 245.72 207.19
2 July 2002 246.35 211.18
9 July 2002 246.98 211.09
16 July 2002 245.27 213.07
23 July 2002 245.56 210.99
30 July 2002 242.58 209.85
6 August 2002 240.20 209.69
13 August 2002 240.43 215.45
20 August 2002 240.45 213.44
27 August 2002 240.21 216.88
3 September 2002 242.09 217.95
10 September 2002 241.17 227.81
17 September 2002 240.90 227.53
24 September 2002 240.50 227.28
1 October 2002 241.08 226.87
8 October 2002 237.87 225.86
15 October 2002 240.95 231.38
22 October 2002 240.89 227.77
29 October 2002 242.34 227.36
5 November 2002 243.67 228.05
12 November 2002 242.89 225.41
19 November 2002 241.96 229.51
26 November 2002 244.59 230.04
3 December 2002 245.04 231.25
10 December 2002 248.88 232.69
17 December 2002 248.91 237.13
24 December 2002 249.36 238.25
31 December 2002 248.56 234.52
7 January 2003 250.29 238.98
14 January 2003 256.33 238.89
21 January 2003 256.16 242.11
28 January 2003 255.22 244.67
4 February 2003 256.93 248.16
11 February 2003 258.05 249.34
18 February 2003 257.53 246.99
25 February 2003 261.37 247.35
4 March 2003 262.39 245.20
11 March 2003 261.16 243.91
18 March 2003 261.43 235.55
25 March 2003 260.69 228.91
1 April 2003 258.61 230.05
8 April 2003 258.45 230.36
15 April 2003 260.42 231.73
22 April 2003 259.92 235.97
29 April 2003 256.61 230.48
6 May 2003 255.68 233.17
13 May 2003 257.16 240.51
20 May 2003 258.58 240.66
27 May 2003 259.57 237.46
3 June 2003 259.81 235.65
10 June 2003 261.30 237.62
17 June 2003 261.60 235.50
24 June 2003 258.54 232.99
1 July 2003 259.26 234.50
8 July 2003 261.42 235.91
15 July 2003 265.08 233.12
22 July 2003 263.85 230.61
29 July 2003 265.96 234.71
5 August 2003 263.26 234.81
12 August 2003 262.39 237.12
19 August 2003 262.78 236.09
26 August 2003 265.50 241.08
2 September 2003 267.43 241.29
9 September 2003 269.91 244.38
16 September 2003 272.61 237.67
23 September 2003 274.30 240.27
30 September 2003 280.62 243.66
7 October 2003 284.05 244.13
14 October 2003 289.41 247.75
21 October 2003 294.73 244.79
28 October 2003 297.14 249.07
4 November 2003 297.43 246.57
11 November 2003 298.14 251.60
18 November 2003 296.69 255.37
25 November 2003 289.46 245.67
2 December 2003 294.88 256.74
9 December 2003 301.41 261.05
16 December 2003 304.11 259.31
23 December 2003 306.51 255.76
30 December 2003 308.28 255.77
6 January 2004 309.60 265.41
13 January 2004 316.48 268.41
20 January 2004 314.52 270.77
27 January 2004 310.29 266.99
3 February 2004 307.81 261.77
10 February 2004 307.48 261.58
17 February 2004 310.87 267.07
24 February 2004 311.65 268.51
2 March 2004 314.58 274.84
9 March 2004 311.47 272.06
16 March 2004 316.06 279.67
23 March 2004 319.64 284.59
30 March 2004 322.14 282.57
6 April 2004 321.36 281.46
13 April 2004 316.29 277.42
20 April 2004 319.52 275.38
27 April 2004 316.92 274.24
4 May 2004 313.88 277.64
11 May 2004 311.48 271.30
18 May 2004 310.12 267.05
25 May 2004 314.72 275.65
1 June 2004 315.21 281.75
8 June 2004 313.17 271.44
15 June 2004 305.07 266.62
22 June 2004 302.90 267.60
29 June 2004 305.23 267.29
6 July 2004 306.65 270.24
13 July 2004 307.54 270.15
20 July 2004 312.03 272.30
27 July 2004 307.06 265.68
3 August 2004 306.69 269.29
10 August 2004 303.99 269.86
17 August 2004 307.68 271.69
24 August 2004 311.39 274.27
31 August 2004 311.46 276.50
7 September 2004 309.32 270.65
14 September 2004 319.69 273.39
21 September 2004 317.72 277.93
28 September 2004 318.61 281.73
5 October 2004 317.48 284.47
12 October 2004 317.69 284.42
19 October 2004 312.94 285.41
26 October 2004 313.14 288.19
2 November 2004 315.04 281.06
9 November 2004 319.55 283.36
16 November 2004 321.96 285.64
23 November 2004 323.94 288.72
30 November 2004 324.30 290.94
7 December 2004 324.26 281.21
14 December 2004 322.24 279.37
21 December 2004 323.12 286.73
28 December 2004 322.51 284.27
4 January 2005 319.22 279.13
11 January 2005 320.91 281.33
18 January 2005 319.36 283.79
25 January 2005 321.16 286.52
1 February 2005 322.20 283.91
8 February 2005 320.57 281.46
15 February 2005 324.45 289.33
22 February 2005 328.48 297.66
1 March 2005 329.03 305.26
8 March 2005 332.69 312.65
15 March 2005 335.63 320.50
22 March 2005 334.02 313.02
29 March 2005 334.36 308.93
5 April 2005 333.48 308.77
12 April 2005 338.20 302.63
19 April 2005 337.17 304.03
26 April 2005 338.70 309.78
3 May 2005 335.64 299.69
10 May 2005 334.90 301.44
17 May 2005 330.82 294.09
24 May 2005 328.92 296.72
31 May 2005 330.21 300.83
7 June 2005 331.15 306.21
14 June 2005 331.26 304.96
21 June 2005 333.72 311.69
28 June 2005 331.36 308.82
5 July 2005 329.56 314.33
12 July 2005 324.14 313.54
19 July 2005 323.09 308.13
26 July 2005 324.22 309.23
2 August 2005 326.00 320.01
9 August 2005 320.49 313.87
16 August 2005 322.36 312.07
23 August 2005 326.00 312.92
30 August 2005 327.22 318.44
6 September 2005 330.47 325.01
13 September 2005 329.94 317.78
20 September 2005 328.33 324.22
27 September 2005 330.60 325.94
4 October 2005 330.39 332.80
11 October 2005 334.95 336.16
18 October 2005 333.47 335.07
25 October 2005 333.41 337.43
1 November 2005 331.25 327.20
8 November 2005 333.18 330.95
15 November 2005 332.30 329.50
22 November 2005 332.59 330.87
29 November 2005 331.61 330.03
6 December 2005 339.87 339.46
13 December 2005 354.09 349.11
20 December 2005 353.34 343.91
27 December 2005 355.19 342.94
3 January 2006 355.77 352.29
10 January 2006 360.26 351.73
17 January 2006 362.89 354.50
24 January 2006 366.66 355.82
31 January 2006 368.48 363.30
7 February 2006 371.73 355.64
14 February 2006 371.94 348.82
21 February 2006 371.90 354.93
28 February 2006 370.53 353.27
7 March 2006 371.26 350.99
14 March 2006 368.95 351.24
21 March 2006 372.68 351.27
28 March 2006 373.64 358.05
4 April 2006 376.77 361.59
11 April 2006 380.35 365.58
18 April 2006 386.33 378.34
25 April 2006 394.36 376.80
2 May 2006 396.28 386.49
9 May 2006 400.46 390.26
16 May 2006 401.38 390.98
23 May 2006 399.93 387.10
30 May 2006 405.99 384.44
6 June 2006 401.08 379.92
13 June 2006 396.16 363.66
20 June 2006 398.84 368.80
27 June 2006 398.53 373.21
11 July 2006 405.13 391.77
18 July 2006 404.57 378.25
25 July 2006 402.49 379.68
1 August 2006 406.39 393.86
8 August 2006 406.56 394.78
15 August 2006 404.20 384.90
22 August 2006 403.88 385.55
29 August 2006 401.14 381.73
5 September 2006 407.56 392.46
12 September 2006 402.34 373.24
19 September 2006 402.28 366.06
26 September 2006 405.77 361.78
3 October 2006 408.04 363.61
10 October 2006 411.67 368.11
17 October 2006 419.88 382.02
24 October 2006 424.30 382.59
31 October 2006 427.88 383.92
7 November 2006 431.87 395.11
14 November 2006 436.40 391.75
21 November 2006 439.67 395.68
28 November 2006 443.39 400.87
5 December 2006 446.86 403.37
12 December 2006 445.82 397.29
19 December 2006 448.22 395.47
26 December 2006 446.45 392.94
9 January 2007 433.99 379.97
16 January 2007 439.36 384.25
23 January 2007 444.31 392.56
30 January 2007 440.36 391.18
6 February 2007 434.51 393.97
13 February 2007 439.47 397.88
20 February 2007 444.15 399.67
27 February 2007 450.41 411.01
6 March 2007 453.59 401.41
13 March 2007 457.41 399.90
20 March 2007 459.34 401.11
27 March 2007 463.04 405.53
3 April 2007 465.84 403.55
10 April 2007 473.36 409.35
17 April 2007 479.60 406.14
24 April 2007 480.17 403.09
1 May 2007 480.57 403.84
8 May 2007 488.51 403.49
15 May 2007 487.47 404.79
22 May 2007 486.86 402.38
29 May 2007 485.08 401.43
5 June 2007 495.51 412.26
12 June 2007 493.71 406.99
19 June 2007 495.23 413.63
26 June 2007 492.32 403.88
3 July 2007 497.68 412.41
10 July 2007 501.51 418.99
17 July 2007 500.96 415.66
24 July 2007 506.61 419.46
31 July 2007 505.30 424.52
7 August 2007 505.72 418.76
14 August 2007 496.62 416.11
21 August 2007 486.26 400.92
28 August 2007 490.56 405.72
4 September 2007 492.39 416.51
11 September 2007 493.95 425.38
18 September 2007 500.05 433.41
25 September 2007 507.84 443.94
2 October 2007 510.79 442.43
9 October 2007 507.50 438.57
16 October 2007 510.70 450.65
23 October 2007 516.28 446.09
30 October 2007 514.24 450.14
6 November 2007 519.12 458.79
13 November 2007 514.23 448.10
20 November 2007 509.59 452.36
27 November 2007 505.91 453.61
4 December 2007 501.37 455.39
11 December 2007 501.89 465.31
18 December 2007 498.08 467.63
8 January 2008 508.76 489.10
15 January 2008 503.70 494.93
22 January 2008 501.11 484.98
29 January 2008 504.04 500.23
5 February 2008 504.30 503.95
12 February 2008 512.32 515.69
19 February 2008 520.43 538.17
26 February 2008 531.04 557.35
4 March 2008 552.57 565.48
11 March 2008 542.71 564.74
18 March 2008 544.31 545.00
25 March 2008 537.84 527.07
1 April 2008 508.40 513.06
8 April 2008 509.92 531.48
15 April 2008 519.92 548.38
22 April 2008 523.32 549.42
29 April 2008 525.59 536.95
6 May 2008 521.03 543.54
13 May 2008 525.71 547.98
20 May 2008 509.29 548.62
27 May 2008 507.85 544.40
3 June 2008 494.48 541.52
10 June 2008 491.89 555.44
17 June 2008 494.05 581.52
24 June 2008 502.16 584.53
1 July 2008 503.61 609.15
8 July 2008 494.18 583.44
15 July 2008 499.40 586.02
22 July 2008 493.52 554.11
29 July 2008 488.98 542.74
5 August 2008 480.99 524.16
12 August 2008 469.14 507.32
19 August 2008 472.37 506.23
26 August 2008 475.63 522.45
2 September 2008 465.54 501.58
9 September 2008 458.61 474.63
16 September 2008 447.44 451.78
23 September 2008 449.49 482.05
30 September 2008 440.96 452.42
7 October 2008 422.94 416.95
14 October 2008 409.39 403.07
21 October 2008 379.19 382.90
28 October 2008 375.18 358.44
4 November 2008 368.37 385.76
11 November 2008 353.08 359.48
18 November 2008 348.82 352.35
25 November 2008 341.89 356.09
2 December 2008 334.81 346.95
9 December 2008 318.69 333.75

Note: The Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) spot industrials index consists entirely of industrial commodities, excluding energy. The CRB futures index gives about a 60 percent weight to food commodities and splits the remaining weight roughly equally among energy commodities, industrial commodities, and precious metals.


Selected Commodity Price Indexes
(Percent change)
Index 2007 1 12/18/07
to
10/21/08 2
10/21/08 2
to
12/9/08
52-week
change to
12/9/08
JOC industrials 7.6 -21.0 -26.8 -42.8
JOC metals 2.1 -33.4 -17.7 -47.1
CRB spot industrials 11.1 -23.9 -16.1 -36.6
CRB spot foodstuffs 25.5 -3.7 -15.7 -18.8
CRB futures 18.2 -18.1 -12.8 -28.3

1. From the last week of the preceding year to the last week of the year indicated.  Return to table

2. October 21, 2008, is the Tuesday preceding publication of the October Greenbook.  Return to table


Broad Measures of Inflation

(Percent change, Q3 to Q3)
Measure 2005 2006 2007 2008
Product prices
GDP price index 3.4 3.2 2.5 2.7
Less food and energy 3.2 3.2 2.3 2.3
Nonfarm business chain price index 3.5 3.1 1.8 2.5
Expenditure prices
Gross domestic purchases price index 3.9 3.3 2.4 4.1
Less food and energy 3.1 3.1 2.3 2.4
PCE price index 3.2 2.9 2.2 4.3
Less food and energy 2.1 2.5 2.0 2.4
PCE price index, market-based components 3.1 2.7 2.0 4.5
Less food and energy 1.7 2.1 1.6 2.2
CPI 3.8 3.3 2.4 5.3
Less food and energy 2.1 2.8 2.1 2.5
Chained CPI 3.4 3.1 2.0 4.6
Less food and energy 1.8 2.6 1.7 2.2
Median CPI 2.4 3.1 3.0 3.3
Trimmed mean CPI 2.5 2.8 2.5 3.5
Trimmed mean PCE 2.4 2.9 2.4 2.7

Source: For CPI, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for all else, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Surveys of Inflation Expectations

(Percent)
Period Actual
CPI
inflation1
Reuters/Michigan Survey Professional
forecasters
(10 years)4
1 year2 5 to 10 years3
Mean Median Mean Median CPI PCE
2007: Q1 2.4 3.6 3.0 3.4 2.9 2.4 2.0
Q2 2.7 4.2 3.3 3.5 3.0 2.4 2.0
Q3 2.4 4.1 3.2 3.5 3.0 2.4 2.1
Q4 4.0 4.1 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.1
2008: Q1 4.1 4.2 3.8 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.2
Q2 4.4 6.4 5.0 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.2
Q3 5.3 5.4 4.7 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.2
Q4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.5 2.2
2008: July 5.6 6.3 5.1 3.5 3.2
Aug. 5.4 5.3 4.8 3.9 3.2 2.5 2.2
Sept. 4.9 4.6 4.3 3.3 3.0
Oct. 3.7 4.3 3.9 3.1 2.9
Nov. n.a. 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.2

1. Percent change from the same period in the preceding year.  Return to table

2. Responses to the question, By about what percent do you expect prices to go up, on average, during the next 12 months?  Return to table

3. Responses to the question, By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up, on average, during the next 5 to 10 years?  Return to table

4. Median CPI and PCE price projections.  Return to table

… Not applicable.

n.a. Not available.

Source: For CPI, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; for Reuters/Michigan Survey, Reuters/University of Michigan; for professional forecasters, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.


Measures of Expected Inflation

Figure: Survey Measures (Reuters/University of Michigan)
Quarterly
Percent
Period Median, next 12 months Median, next 5 to 10 years
1978:Q1 5.97 ND
1978:Q2 6.70 ND
1978:Q3 7.40 ND
1978:Q4 7.40 ND
1979:Q1 8.63 ND
1979:Q2 9.80 ND
1979:Q3 9.80 ND
1979:Q4 9.63 ND
1980:Q1 10.20 ND
1980:Q2 9.07 ND
1980:Q3 8.77 ND
1980:Q4 9.30 ND
1981:Q1 8.43 6.67
1981:Q2 7.47 ND
1981:Q3 6.50 6.33
1981:Q4 6.43 ND
1982:Q1 4.83 5.67
1982:Q2 4.27 ND
1982:Q3 4.77 5.27
1982:Q4 4.30 ND
1983:Q1 2.53 4.90
1983:Q2 3.27 ND
1983:Q3 3.27 4.97
1983:Q4 3.57 ND
1984:Q1 3.30 4.97
1984:Q2 4.10 ND
1984:Q3 3.13 4.97
1984:Q4 3.40 ND
1985:Q1 3.00 4.73
1985:Q2 3.30 ND
1985:Q3 2.83 4.67
1985:Q4 3.30 ND
1986:Q1 2.67 ND
1986:Q2 2.67 ND
1986:Q3 2.90 ND
1986:Q4 3.00 ND
1987:Q1 3.00 ND
1987:Q2 3.23 ND
1987:Q3 3.10 ND
1987:Q4 3.20 ND
1988:Q1 3.17 ND
1988:Q2 3.43 ND
1988:Q3 4.30 ND
1988:Q4 3.83 ND
1989:Q1 3.77 ND
1989:Q2 4.23 ND
1989:Q3 3.67 ND
1989:Q4 3.53 ND
1990:Q1 3.97 ND
1990:Q2 3.60 4.30
1990:Q3 4.23 4.50
1990:Q4 4.73 4.57
1991:Q1 3.53 4.60
1991:Q2 3.20 4.37
1991:Q3 3.10 4.03
1991:Q4 2.93 3.77
1992:Q1 2.63 3.53
1992:Q2 3.00 3.77
1992:Q3 2.83 3.80
1992:Q4 2.83 3.60
1993:Q1 3.07 3.70
1993:Q2 3.13 3.60
1993:Q3 3.07 3.37
1993:Q4 3.03 3.50
1994:Q1 2.87 3.30
1994:Q2 2.93 3.33
1994:Q3 3.13 3.30
1994:Q4 3.07 3.23
1995:Q1 3.07 3.23
1995:Q2 3.07 3.27
1995:Q3 2.87 3.13
1995:Q4 2.80 3.13
1996:Q1 2.83 3.23
1996:Q2 3.00 3.13
1996:Q3 3.10 3.23
1996:Q4 3.00 3.00
1997:Q1 2.93 3.10
1997:Q2 2.90 3.00
1997:Q3 2.73 3.00
1997:Q4 2.83 3.07
1998:Q1 2.40 2.87
1998:Q2 2.57 2.80
1998:Q3 2.43 2.77
1998:Q4 2.43 2.83
1999:Q1 2.63 2.83
1999:Q2 2.67 2.83
1999:Q3 2.73 2.87
1999:Q4 2.93 2.87
2000:Q1 3.03 3.00
2000:Q2 3.03 2.83
2000:Q3 2.87 2.90
2000:Q4 2.97 2.97
2001:Q1 2.87 2.97
2001:Q2 3.10 3.03
2001:Q3 2.70 2.93
2001:Q4 1.07 2.83
2002:Q1 2.23 2.77
2002:Q2 2.73 2.87
2002:Q3 2.57 2.73
2002:Q4 2.47 2.80
2003:Q1 2.77 2.73
2003:Q2 2.17 2.73
2003:Q3 2.33 2.70
2003:Q4 2.63 2.77
2004:Q1 2.73 2.87
2004:Q2 3.27 2.80
2004:Q3 2.87 2.77
2004:Q4 2.97 2.77
2005:Q1 3.00 2.80
2005:Q2 3.23 2.90
2005:Q3 3.47 2.93
2005:Q4 3.67 3.10
2006:Q1 3.00 2.90
2006:Q2 3.53 3.07
2006:Q3 3.37 3.03
2006:Q4 3.00 3.03
2007:Q1 3.00 2.93
2007:Q2 3.33 3.03
2007:Q3 3.23 2.97
2007:Q4 3.30 2.93
2008:Q1 3.77 2.97
2008:Q2 5.03 3.33
2008:Q3 4.73 3.13

Source: Reuters/University of Michigan.


Figure: Survey Measures (Reuters/University of Michigan)
Monthly
Percent
Period Median, next 12 months Median, next 5 to 10 years
January 2005 2.9 2.7
February 2005 2.9 2.8
March 2005 3.2 2.9
April 2005 3.3 3.0
May 2005 3.2 2.9
June 2005 3.2 2.8
July 2005 3.0 2.9
August 2005 3.1 2.8
September 2005 4.3 3.1
October 2005 4.6 3.2
November 2005 3.3 3.0
December 2005 3.1 3.1
January 2006 3.0 2.9
February 2006 3.0 2.9
March 2006 3.0 2.9
April 2006 3.3 3.1
May 2006 4.0 3.2
June 2006 3.3 2.9
July 2006 3.2 2.9
August 2006 3.8 3.2
September 2006 3.1 3.0
October 2006 3.1 3.1
November 2006 3.0 3.0
December 2006 2.9 3.0
January 2007 3.0 3.0
February 2007 3.0 2.9
March 2007 3.0 2.9
April 2007 3.3 3.1
May 2007 3.3 3.1
June 2007 3.4 2.9
July 2007 3.4 3.1
August 2007 3.2 2.9
September 2007 3.1 2.9
October 2007 3.1 2.8
November 2007 3.4 2.9
December 2007 3.4 3.1
January 2008 3.4 3.0
February 2008 3.6 3.0
March 2008 4.3 2.9
April 2008 4.8 3.2
May 2008 5.2 3.4
June 2008 5.1 3.4
July 2008 5.1 3.2
August 2008 4.8 3.2
September 2008 4.3 3.0
October 2008 3.9 2.9
November 2008 2.9 2.9

Source: Reuters/University of Michigan.


Figure: Inputs to Models of Inflation
Quarterly
Percent
Period FRB/US long-run expectations measure for PCE inflation Distributed lag of core PCE inflation
1971:Q1 3.10 4.93
1971:Q2 3.10 4.77
1971:Q3 3.10 4.70
1971:Q4 3.49 4.43
1972:Q1 3.49 3.88
1972:Q2 3.49 4.25
1972:Q3 3.49 3.80
1972:Q4 3.92 3.77
1973:Q1 3.92 3.53
1973:Q2 3.92 3.46
1973:Q3 3.92 3.97
1973:Q4 3.92 3.93
1974:Q1 4.21 3.89
1974:Q2 4.89 4.58
1974:Q3 5.07 5.87
1974:Q4 5.07 6.86
1975:Q1 5.07 7.02
1975:Q2 5.10 6.92
1975:Q3 5.14 6.93
1975:Q4 5.14 7.12
1976:Q1 4.88 7.33
1976:Q2 4.40 7.32
1976:Q3 4.50 7.02
1976:Q4 4.50 7.35
1977:Q1 4.50 7.09
1977:Q2 4.62 6.76
1977:Q3 4.85 6.29
1977:Q4 4.85 6.40
1978:Q1 5.04 6.19
1978:Q2 5.42 6.35
1978:Q3 5.42 6.42
1978:Q4 5.66 6.40
1979:Q1 6.15 6.72
1979:Q2 6.15 6.12
1979:Q3 6.72 7.14
1979:Q4 6.72 6.86
1980:Q1 6.72 7.30
1980:Q2 6.72 7.91
1980:Q3 6.72 7.92
1980:Q4 7.05 8.15
1981:Q1 7.72 8.64
1981:Q2 7.37 8.54
1981:Q3 7.12 8.27
1981:Q4 7.23 8.47
1982:Q1 6.66 8.31
1982:Q2 6.26 7.91
1982:Q3 6.27 7.57
1982:Q4 6.10 7.53
1983:Q1 5.82 7.13
1983:Q2 6.08 6.82
1983:Q3 6.13 5.67
1983:Q4 6.15 6.28
1984:Q1 6.08 5.16
1984:Q2 6.00 5.07
1984:Q3 5.55 5.06
1984:Q4 5.20 4.65
1985:Q1 4.85 4.24
1985:Q2 4.97 4.64
1985:Q3 5.20 3.98
1985:Q4 5.11 3.87
1986:Q1 4.78 3.86
1986:Q2 4.75 3.96
1986:Q3 4.62 3.76
1986:Q4 4.61 3.85
1987:Q1 4.78 3.77
1987:Q2 4.80 3.64
1987:Q3 4.98 3.70
1987:Q4 4.64 3.74
1988:Q1 4.74 3.83
1988:Q2 4.54 3.94
1988:Q3 4.42 4.22
1988:Q4 4.17 4.10
1989:Q1 4.19 4.15
1989:Q2 4.24 4.27
1989:Q3 4.03 3.96
1989:Q4 3.81 3.86
1990:Q1 3.56 4.07
1990:Q2 3.77 4.34
1990:Q3 3.89 4.57
1990:Q4 3.80 4.25
1991:Q1 3.81 3.95
1991:Q2 3.84 4.27
1991:Q3 3.58 3.82
1991:Q4 3.50 3.92
1992:Q1 3.20 3.91
1992:Q2 3.40 4.03
1992:Q3 3.25 3.70
1992:Q4 3.10 3.54
1993:Q1 3.00 3.31
1993:Q2 3.20 3.12
1993:Q3 2.95 3.24
1993:Q4 2.95 2.75
1994:Q1 2.95 2.66
1994:Q2 3.00 2.57
1994:Q3 3.00 2.64
1994:Q4 3.00 2.69
1995:Q1 2.80 2.32
1995:Q2 2.85 2.31
1995:Q3 2.70 2.31
1995:Q4 2.50 2.22
1996:Q1 2.50 2.11
1996:Q2 2.50 2.11
1996:Q3 2.50 2.06
1996:Q4 2.50 2.01
1997:Q1 2.50 2.07
1997:Q2 2.35 1.81
1997:Q3 2.50 1.87
1997:Q4 2.15 1.56
1998:Q1 2.10 1.57
1998:Q2 2.00 1.57
1998:Q3 2.00 1.44
1998:Q4 2.00 1.48
1999:Q1 1.80 1.54
1999:Q2 2.00 1.40
1999:Q3 2.00 1.48
1999:Q4 2.00 1.40
2000:Q1 2.00 1.50
2000:Q2 2.00 1.76
2000:Q3 2.00 1.49
2000:Q4 2.00 1.37
2001:Q1 2.00 1.54
2001:Q2 2.00 1.94
2001:Q3 2.00 1.79
2001:Q4 2.05 1.67
2002:Q1 2.00 2.00
2002:Q2 2.00 1.69
2002:Q3 2.00 1.82
2002:Q4 1.95 1.78
2003:Q1 2.00 1.63
2003:Q2 2.00 1.62
2003:Q3 2.00 1.64
2003:Q4 2.00 1.67
2004:Q1 2.00 1.60
2004:Q2 2.00 1.86
2004:Q3 2.00 1.92
2004:Q4 2.00 1.74
2005:Q1 1.95 1.86
2005:Q2 2.00 1.99
2005:Q3 2.00 1.97
2005:Q4 2.00 1.89
2006:Q1 2.00 2.16
2006:Q2 2.00 2.12
2006:Q3 2.00 2.42
2006:Q4 2.00 2.26
2007:Q1 2.00 2.06
2007:Q2 2.00 2.25
2007:Q3 2.10 2.11
2007:Q4 2.10 2.14
2008:Q1 2.20 2.27
2008:Q2 2.20 2.26
2008:Q3 2.20 2.22
2008:Q4 2.20 2.30

Note: The distributed lag of core PCE inflation is derived from one of the reduced-form Phillips curves used by Board staff.

Source: For the distributed lag of core PCE inflation, FRB staff calculations; for the FRB/US measure, for 2007 forward, the median projection for PCE inflation over the next 10 years from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF); for 1990 to 2006, the equivalent SPF projection for the CPI; for 1981 to 1989, a related survey for the CPI conducted by Richard Hoey; and for the period preceding 1981, a model-based estimate constructed by Board staff. The survey data before 2007 are adjusted down 0.5 percentage point to put the CPI projections approximately on a PCE basis.


Figure: Inflation Compensation from TIPS
Quarterly
Percent
Period Next 5 years 5 to 10 years ahead
2001:Q1 1.58 2.14
2001:Q2 1.90 2.48
2001:Q3 1.56 2.35
2001:Q4 1.21 2.50
2002:Q1 1.46 2.68
2002:Q2 1.75 2.76
2002:Q3 1.33 2.76
2002:Q4 1.17 2.75
2003:Q1 1.51 2.74
2003:Q2 1.37 2.47
2003:Q3 1.73 2.91
2003:Q4 2.02 3.11
2004:Q1 2.12 2.88
2004:Q2 2.37 3.11
2004:Q3 2.33 2.90
2004:Q4 2.51 2.79
2005:Q1 2.68 2.70
2005:Q2 2.50 2.57
2005:Q3 2.41 2.48
2005:Q4 2.53 2.58
2006:Q1 2.52 2.54
2006:Q2 2.56 2.69
2006:Q3 2.48 2.66
2006:Q4 2.24 2.55
2007:Q1 2.28 2.49
2007:Q2 2.28 2.54
2007:Q3 2.14 2.69
2007:Q4 2.19 2.76
2008:Q1 2.10 2.94
2008:Q2 2.21 2.85
2008:Q3 1.93 2.81

Note: Based on a comparison of an estimated TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities) yield curve with an estimated nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve, with an adjustment for the indexation-lag effect.

Source: FRB staff calculations.


Figure: Inflation Compensation from TIPS
Weekly
Percent
Period Next 5 years 5 to 10 years ahead
11 January 2005 2.61 2.73
18 January 2005 2.60 2.69
25 January 2005 2.58 2.69
1 February 2005 2.61 2.67
8 February 2005 2.58 2.55
15 February 2005 2.64 2.57
22 February 2005 2.69 2.62
1 March 2005 2.74 2.68
8 March 2005 2.77 2.74
15 March 2005 2.79 2.80
22 March 2005 2.80 2.82
29 March 2005 2.74 2.79
5 April 2005 2.74 2.75
12 April 2005 2.69 2.71
19 April 2005 2.62 2.75
26 April 2005 2.64 2.69
3 May 2005 2.58 2.63
10 May 2005 2.57 2.65
17 May 2005 2.50 2.61
24 May 2005 2.42 2.54
31 May 2005 2.41 2.51
7 June 2005 2.37 2.47
14 June 2005 2.35 2.45
21 June 2005 2.39 2.46
28 June 2005 2.36 2.37
5 July 2005 2.37 2.39
12 July 2005 2.37 2.37
19 July 2005 2.29 2.37
26 July 2005 2.32 2.44
2 August 2005 2.35 2.47
9 August 2005 2.38 2.48
16 August 2005 2.35 2.47
23 August 2005 2.34 2.49
30 August 2005 2.41 2.48
6 September 2005 2.44 2.47
13 September 2005 2.49 2.51
20 September 2005 2.53 2.57
27 September 2005 2.54 2.57
4 October 2005 2.60 2.60
11 October 2005 2.54 2.54
18 October 2005 2.54 2.57
25 October 2005 2.51 2.60
1 November 2005 2.55 2.68
8 November 2005 2.63 2.76
15 November 2005 2.57 2.67
22 November 2005 2.53 2.59
29 November 2005 2.54 2.54
6 December 2005 2.55 2.57
13 December 2005 2.50 2.56
20 December 2005 2.50 2.52
27 December 2005 2.45 2.48
3 January 2006 2.47 2.45
10 January 2006 2.47 2.45
17 January 2006 2.50 2.51
24 January 2006 2.55 2.52
31 January 2006 2.56 2.57
7 February 2006 2.58 2.57
14 February 2006 2.51 2.57
21 February 2006 2.50 2.53
28 February 2006 2.54 2.51
7 March 2006 2.58 2.59
14 March 2006 2.48 2.59
21 March 2006 2.48 2.57
28 March 2006 2.46 2.55
4 April 2006 2.49 2.58
11 April 2006 2.51 2.62
18 April 2006 2.56 2.64
25 April 2006 2.55 2.72
2 May 2006 2.57 2.79
9 May 2006 2.61 2.76
16 May 2006 2.63 2.77
23 May 2006 2.58 2.73
30 May 2006 2.57 2.71
6 June 2006 2.60 2.71
13 June 2006 2.50 2.60
20 June 2006 2.50 2.64
27 June 2006 2.54 2.65
4 July 2006 2.58 2.67
11 July 2006 2.59 2.64
18 July 2006 2.58 2.62
25 July 2006 2.57 2.64
1 August 2006 2.58 2.68
8 August 2006 2.62 2.69
15 August 2006 2.62 2.72
22 August 2006 2.54 2.71
29 August 2006 2.46 2.71
5 September 2006 2.42 2.67
12 September 2006 2.35 2.65
19 September 2006 2.31 2.64
26 September 2006 2.20 2.58
3 October 2006 2.25 2.56
10 October 2006 2.22 2.57
17 October 2006 2.25 2.57
24 October 2006 2.24 2.60
31 October 2006 2.23 2.62
7 November 2006 2.23 2.62
14 November 2006 2.25 2.62
21 November 2006 2.23 2.55
28 November 2006 2.24 2.50
5 December 2006 2.28 2.53
12 December 2006 2.26 2.55
19 December 2006 2.26 2.52
26 December 2006 2.21 2.45
2 January 2007 2.25 2.46
9 January 2007 2.29 2.45
16 January 2007 2.22 2.43
23 January 2007 2.24 2.49
30 January 2007 2.32 2.55
6 February 2007 2.33 2.51
13 February 2007 2.27 2.48
20 February 2007 2.22 2.49
27 February 2007 2.30 2.49
6 March 2007 2.31 2.47
13 March 2007 2.27 2.43
20 March 2007 2.28 2.47
27 March 2007 2.32 2.54
3 April 2007 2.33 2.55
10 April 2007 2.35 2.57
17 April 2007 2.30 2.55
24 April 2007 2.23 2.51
1 May 2007 2.31 2.50
8 May 2007 2.28 2.47
15 May 2007 2.27 2.44
22 May 2007 2.24 2.43
29 May 2007 2.26 2.51
5 June 2007 2.29 2.54
12 June 2007 2.32 2.62
19 June 2007 2.28 2.64
26 June 2007 2.25 2.68
3 July 2007 2.24 2.63
10 July 2007 2.30 2.63
17 July 2007 2.28 2.62
24 July 2007 2.25 2.64
31 July 2007 2.22 2.68
7 August 2007 2.14 2.65
14 August 2007 2.13 2.68
21 August 2007 2.04 2.69
28 August 2007 2.03 2.69
4 September 2007 2.00 2.67
11 September 2007 2.00 2.69
18 September 2007 2.11 2.75
25 September 2007 2.14 2.81
2 October 2007 2.13 2.80
9 October 2007 2.15 2.78
16 October 2007 2.18 2.78
23 October 2007 2.15 2.74
30 October 2007 2.17 2.76
6 November 2007 2.28 2.77
13 November 2007 2.33 2.80
20 November 2007 2.27 2.75
27 November 2007 2.27 2.77
4 December 2007 2.20 2.74
11 December 2007 2.10 2.72
18 December 2007 2.14 2.73
25 December 2007 2.14 2.75
1 January 2008 2.17 2.73
8 January 2008 2.21 2.67
15 January 2008 2.08 2.73
22 January 2008 2.02 2.81
29 January 2008 2.03 2.96
5 February 2008 2.10 2.98
12 February 2008 2.05 3.00
19 February 2008 2.09 2.93
26 February 2008 2.22 2.93
4 March 2008 2.27 3.00
11 March 2008 2.26 3.18
18 March 2008 2.04 3.14
25 March 2008 1.88 3.00
1 April 2008 1.94 3.03
8 April 2008 1.97 3.00
15 April 2008 1.96 2.95
22 April 2008 2.00 2.90
29 April 2008 2.06 2.79
6 May 2008 2.08 2.80
13 May 2008 2.11 2.83
20 May 2008 2.23 2.84
27 May 2008 2.34 2.87
3 June 2008 2.32 2.87
10 June 2008 2.33 2.89
17 June 2008 2.45 2.80
24 June 2008 2.44 2.76
1 July 2008 2.51 2.77
8 July 2008 2.52 2.84
15 July 2008 2.44 2.78
22 July 2008 2.34 2.84
29 July 2008 2.14 2.86
5 August 2008 2.08 2.87
12 August 2008 1.98 2.79
19 August 2008 1.93 2.78
26 August 2008 1.95 2.79
2 September 2008 1.90 2.80
9 September 2008 1.68 2.72
16 September 2008 1.46 2.78
23 September 2008 1.36 2.82
30 September 2008 1.21 2.84
7 October 2008 0.92 2.66
14 October 2008 0.39 2.84
21 October 2008 0.15 3.39
28 October 2008 -0.47 3.32
4 November 2008 -0.63 3.47
11 November 2008 -0.64 3.40
18 November 2008 -0.76 3.07
25 November 2008 -1.37 2.18
2 December 2008 -1.54 2.55
9 December 2008 -1.14 2.66

Note: Based on a comparison of an estimated TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities) yield curve with an estimated nominal off-the-run Treasury yield curve, with an adjustment for the indexation-lag effect.

Source: FRB staff calculations.


Change in Employment Cost Index of Hourly Compensation for Private-Industry Workers

Measure 2007 2008
Sept. Dec. Mar. June Sept.
Quarterly change
(compound annual rate) 1
Total hourly compensation 3.1 3.5 3.0 2.3 2.6
Wages and salaries 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.0 2.2
Benefits 3.1 3.1 2.3 1.9 2.3
12-month change
Total hourly compensation 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.8
Wages and salaries 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9
Benefits 2.4 2.4 3.2 2.6 2.4

1. Seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Return to table

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Change in ECI Benefits (confidential)

(Private-industry workers; 12-month change)

Figure: Health Insurance

1990 to September 2008. Line chart. The series starts at about 12 percent in early 1990, decreases to about 0 by 1996, increases to about 11 by 2003, then decreases to end at about 4 percent.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure: Nonproduction Bonuses

1990 to September 2008, line chart, by Percent. The series starts in early 1990 at about 14, and fluctuates widely between about 13 and -8 until it ends at about 7.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure: Retirement and Savings

By Percent, 1990 to September 2008, line chart. The series starts at about 5 in 1990, increases to about 11 by 1994, decreases to about 3 by 2002, increases to about 26 in 2004, then decreases to about -5 by 2007, then increases to end at about 3.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure: Workers' Compensation Insurance

By Percent, 1990 to September 2008, line chart. The series starts at about 12 in 1990, decreases to about -7 by 1998, increases to about 14 by 2003, then decreases to end at about -2.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Hourly Compensation and Unit Labor Costs

(Percent change from preceding period at compound annual rate; based on seasonally adjusted data)
Category 2006:Q3
to
2007:Q3
2007:Q3
to
2008:Q3e
2007 2008
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3e
Compensation per hour
Nonfarm business 4.5 3.5 5.3 3.8 .9 4.1
Output per hour
Nonfarm business 2.5 2.1 .8 2.6 3.6 1.4
Unit labor costs
Nonfarm business 2.0 1.4 4.5 1.2 -2.6 2.6

e Staff estimate.  Return to table

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Figure: Compensation per Hour
(Percent change from year-earlier period)
Percent
Period ECI Productivity and costs*
1996:Q1 2.8 3.1
1996:Q2 2.9 3.5
1996:Q3 2.9 3.7
1996:Q4 3.1 3.2
1997:Q1 3.0 2.8
1997:Q2 2.9 2.6
1997:Q3 3.1 2.8
1997:Q4 3.5 4.2
1998:Q1 3.6 5.5
1998:Q2 3.5 6.1
1998:Q3 3.9 6.8
1998:Q4 3.5 5.5
1999:Q1 2.9 5.5
1999:Q2 3.3 4.5
1999:Q3 3.0 3.7
1999:Q4 3.5 5.2
2000:Q1 4.6 7.0
2000:Q2 4.6 6.8
2000:Q3 4.7 8.0
2000:Q4 4.2 6.5
2001:Q1 4.2 4.5
2001:Q2 4.0 4.9
2001:Q3 4.0 3.4
2001:Q4 4.1 3.6
2002:Q1 3.8 3.5
2002:Q2 4.0 4.0
2002:Q3 3.5 3.9
2002:Q4 3.1 3.2
2003:Q1 3.6 3.0
2003:Q2 3.5 3.5
2003:Q3 3.9 4.4
2003:Q4 4.0 5.3
2004:Q1 3.8 3.8
2004:Q2 3.9 3.4
2004:Q3 3.8 3.4
2004:Q4 3.8 3.9
2005:Q1 3.5 4.6
2005:Q2 3.1 3.9
2005:Q3 2.9 4.0
2005:Q4 2.9 3.6
2006:Q1 2.6 4.2
2006:Q2 2.8 3.9
2006:Q3 3.0 2.9
2006:Q4 3.2 4.3
2007:Q1 3.2 4.2
2007:Q2 3.1 4.2
2007:Q3 3.1 4.5
2007:Q4 3.0 3.6
2008:Q1 3.2 3.3
2008:Q2 3.0 3.3
2008:Q3 2.8 3.5

* Value for 2008:Q3 is a staff estimate.  Return to table

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Figure: Unit Labor Costs
(Percent change from year-earlier period)
Period Percent
1996:Q1 1.0
1996:Q2 0.5
1996:Q3 0.5
1996:Q4 0.7
1997:Q1 1.6
1997:Q2 1.2
1997:Q3 0.9
1997:Q4 2.0
1998:Q1 2.1
1998:Q2 3.7
1998:Q3 4.1
1998:Q4 2.7
1999:Q1 2.6
1999:Q2 1.6
1999:Q3 1.3
1999:Q4 1.6
2000:Q1 4.7
2000:Q2 2.9
2000:Q3 5.0
2000:Q4 4.3
2001:Q1 2.0
2001:Q2 2.8
2001:Q3 0.7
2001:Q4 0.3
2002:Q1 -1.6
2002:Q2 0.1
2002:Q3 -0.6
2002:Q4 0.2
2003:Q1 0.9
2003:Q2 0.2
2003:Q3 -0.3
2003:Q4 0.5
2004:Q1 -0.2
2004:Q2 -0.4
2004:Q3 1.9
2004:Q4 2.1
2005:Q1 2.2
2005:Q2 2.5
2005:Q3 2.0
2005:Q4 2.1
2006:Q1 2.9
2006:Q2 2.2
2006:Q3 2.6
2006:Q4 3.6
2007:Q1 4.2
2007:Q2 3.7
2007:Q3 2.0
2007:Q4 0.9
2008:Q1 0.0
2008:Q2 0.1
2008:Q3 1.4

Note: Value for 2008:Q3 is a staff estimate.

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Figure: Average Hourly Earnings
(Percent change from year-earlier period)
Period Percent
January 1996 3.22
February 1996 2.95
March 1996 2.94
April 1996 3.28
May 1996 3.36
June 1996 3.53
July 1996 3.25
August 1996 3.42
September 1996 3.58
October 1996 3.40
November 1996 3.65
December 1996 3.73
January 1997 3.63
February 1997 3.79
March 1997 4.04
April 1997 3.60
May 1997 3.76
June 1997 3.57
July 1997 3.65
August 1997 3.97
September 1997 3.71
October 1997 4.19
November 1997 4.18
December 1997 4.08
January 1998 4.07
February 1998 4.22
March 1998 4.12
April 1998 4.36
May 1998 4.26
June 1998 4.17
July 1998 4.08
August 1998 4.14
September 1998 4.13
October 1998 3.71
November 1998 3.62
December 1998 3.61
January 1999 3.75
February 1999 3.58
March 1999 3.57
April 1999 3.56
May 1999 3.63
June 1999 3.70
July 1999 3.92
August 1999 3.51
September 1999 3.81
October 1999 3.81
November 1999 3.64
December 1999 3.71
January 2000 3.62
February 2000 3.76
March 2000 3.82
April 2000 3.96
May 2000 3.80
June 2000 3.79
July 2000 3.77
August 2000 3.84
September 2000 3.75
October 2000 3.96
November 2000 4.17
December 2000 4.23
January 2001 3.93
February 2001 4.20
March 2001 4.12
April 2001 3.88
May 2001 4.02
June 2001 4.08
July 2001 3.78
August 2001 3.77
September 2001 3.68
October 2001 3.39
November 2001 3.44
December 2001 3.29
January 2002 3.29
February 2002 2.85
March 2002 2.77
April 2002 2.63
May 2002 2.62
June 2002 2.75
July 2002 2.88
August 2002 2.88
September 2002 2.94
October 2002 3.14
November 2002 2.92
December 2002 3.12
January 2003 3.12
February 2003 3.38
March 2003 3.17
April 2003 3.03
May 2003 3.09
June 2003 2.74
July 2003 2.80
August 2003 2.66
September 2003 2.32
October 2003 2.05
November 2003 2.11
December 2003 1.78
January 2004 1.91
February 2004 1.64
March 2004 1.83
April 2004 2.09
May 2004 1.96
June 2004 2.02
July 2004 2.01
August 2004 2.14
September 2004 2.40
October 2004 2.53
November 2004 2.46
December 2004 2.52
January 2005 2.58
February 2005 2.51
March 2005 2.63
April 2005 2.69
May 2005 2.62
June 2005 2.62
July 2005 2.80
August 2005 2.73
September 2005 2.60
October 2005 3.03
November 2005 2.90
December 2005 3.15
January 2006 3.27
February 2006 3.52
March 2006 3.57
April 2006 4.00
May 2006 3.80
June 2006 3.98
July 2006 3.96
August 2006 4.02
September 2006 4.20
October 2006 3.99
November 2006 4.17
December 2006 4.28
January 2007 4.20
February 2007 4.12
March 2007 4.17
April 2007 3.78
May 2007 4.08
June 2007 4.13
July 2007 4.05
August 2007 4.04
September 2007 4.09
October 2007 3.78
November 2007 3.83
December 2007 3.69
January 2008 3.68
February 2008 3.73
March 2008 3.65
April 2008 3.47
May 2008 3.52
June 2008 3.39
July 2008 3.38
August 2008 3.60
September 2008 3.41
October 2008 3.64
November 2008 3.80

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


Figure: Markup, Nonfarm Business
Ratio
Period Nonfarm Business Markup
1996:Q1 1.619
1996:Q2 1.626
1996:Q3 1.625
1996:Q4 1.628
1997:Q1 1.623
1997:Q2 1.635
1997:Q3 1.638
1997:Q4 1.621
1998:Q1 1.605
1998:Q2 1.588
1998:Q3 1.585
1998:Q4 1.586
1999:Q1 1.576
1999:Q2 1.580
1999:Q3 1.583
1999:Q4 1.583
2000:Q1 1.535
2000:Q2 1.565
2000:Q3 1.537
2000:Q4 1.548
2001:Q1 1.531
2001:Q2 1.553
2001:Q3 1.554
2001:Q4 1.572
2002:Q1 1.574
2002:Q2 1.568
2002:Q3 1.580
2002:Q4 1.585
2003:Q1 1.585
2003:Q2 1.583
2003:Q3 1.606
2003:Q4 1.596
2004:Q1 1.614
2004:Q2 1.624
2004:Q3 1.616
2004:Q4 1.613
2005:Q1 1.630
2005:Q2 1.632
2005:Q3 1.640
2005:Q4 1.637
2006:Q1 1.639
2006:Q2 1.655
2006:Q3 1.647
2006:Q4 1.618
2007:Q1 1.612
2007:Q2 1.631
2007:Q3 1.644
2007:Q4 1.635
2008:Q1 1.638
2008:Q2 1.653
2008:Q3 1.660

Average, 1968-present: 1.573

Note: The markup is the ratio of output price to unit labor costs. Value for 2008:Q3 is a staff estimate.

Source: For output price, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; for unit labor costs, U.S. Dept. of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014