Accessible Material
December 2008 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts†
International Developments
Summary of Staff Projections
Indicator | 2008 | Projection | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | Q3 | 2008: Q4 |
2009 | 2010 | ||
H1 | H2 | |||||
Foreign output | 1.8 | .7 | -1.6 | -.6 | 1.5 | 2.8 |
Previous Greenbook | 1.7 | .5 | .5 | .9 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
Foreign CPI | 5.1 | 4.4 | -.1 | .9 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Previous Greenbook | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Contribution to growth (percentage points) | ||||||
U.S. net exports | 1.8 | 1.1 | .4 | .5 | -.5 | -.4 |
Previous Greenbook | 1.8 | 1.2 | .4 | .5 | -.1 | -.2 |
Note: Change for year measured as Q4/Q4; half-years are Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2.
Staff Projections of Selected Trade Prices
Trade category | 2008 | Projection | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | Q3 | 2008: Q4 |
2009 | 2010 | ||
H1 | H2 | |||||
Imports | ||||||
Core goods | 9.5 | 4.6 | -7.0 | -5.5 | .1 | 1.3 |
Previous Greenbook | 9.5 | 6.5 | -2.9 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
Oil (dollars per barrel) | 108.65 | 117.53 | 68.09 | 47.92 | 52.64 | 61.12 |
Previous Greenbook | 108.65 | 117.85 | 75.26 | 70.17 | 73.32 | 78.65 |
Exports | ||||||
Core goods | 13.0 | 6.7 | -13.5 | -5.4 | .6 | .9 |
Previous Greenbook | 13.0 | 7.8 | -6.0 | -1.3 | .9 | 1.0 |
Note: Prices for core exports exclude computers and semiconductors. Prices for core imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Both prices are on a National Income and Product Account chain-weighted basis.
The price of imported oil for multiquarter periods is the price for the final quarter of the period. Imported oil includes both crude oil and refined products.
Staff Projections for Trade in Goods and Services
Measure | 2008 | Projection | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | Q3 | 2008: Q4 |
2009 | 2010 | ||
H1 | H2 | |||||
Real imports | -4.1 | -3.2 | -5.2 | -5.6 | 3.7 | 4.9 |
Previous Greenbook | -4.1 | -1.0 | -.3 | -.7 | 2.5 | 4.3 |
Real exports | 8.6 | 3.4 | -4.1 | -2.7 | .1 | 2.6 |
Previous Greenbook | 8.6 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 3.9 |
Note: Changes for years are measured as Q4/Q4; half-years are measured as Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2.
Alternative Scenario:
Lower Foreign Demand
Indicator and simulation | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012-13 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
H1 | H2 | H1 | H2 | |||
U.S. real GDP | ||||||
Baseline | -3.1 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 5.7 |
Lower Foreign Demand | -3.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 5.3 |
U.S. PCE prices excluding food and energy | ||||||
Baseline | 1.4 | .9 | .8 | .8 | .7 | .7 |
Lower Foreign Demand | 1.4 | .8 | .6 | .6 | .4 | .2 |
U.S. federal funds rate (percent) | ||||||
Baseline | .3 | .3 | .3 | .3 | .3 | 1.3 |
Lower Foreign Demand | .3 | .3 | .3 | .3 | .3 | .3 |
U.S. trade balance (percent share of GDP) | ||||||
Baseline | -2.3 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -3.2 | -3.6 | -4.3 |
Lower Foreign Demand | -2.2 | -2.5 | -3.0 | -3.3 | -4.0 | -4.9 |
Note: H1 is Q2/Q4; H2 is Q4/Q2. The federal funds rate is the average rate for the final quarter of the period.
Evolution of the Staff Forecast
Figure: Current Account Balance
January 2007 to December 2008, Percent of GDP, line chart. 2008 series starts at about -6.7 and increases to end at about -4.7. 2009 series begins in September 2007 at about -5.3 and increases to end at about -3. 2010 series begins in September 2008 at about -3.5 and ends at -3.5.
Figure: Foreign Real GDP
January 2007 to December 2008. Line chart. Percent change, Q4/Q4. 2008 series starts at about 3.5 and decreases to end at about .7. 2009 starts in September 2007 at about 3.3, fluctuates until September 2008 then decreases to end at about .3. 2010 begins in September 2009 at about 3.5 and decreases to end at about 2.7.
Figure: Core Import Prices
Line chart, January 2007 to December 2008. Percent change, Q4/Q4. The 2008 series starts at about 1, fluctuates and begins to increase in early 2008. It increases to about 7 by September 2008, then decreases to end at about 3.5. The 2009 series begins in September 2007 at about 1, remains about there until September 2008 when it begins to decrease to end at about -2.5. The 2010 series begins in September 2008 at about 1, and ends at about 1. Note: Prices for merchandise imports excluding computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas.
Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries
Measure and country | Projected | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
REAL GDP1 | Quarterly changes at an annual rate | |||||||||||
Total Foreign | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | -1.6 | -1.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
Advanced Foreign Economies | 1.0 | -0.3 | -0.0 | -2.2 | -2.2 | -1.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
of which: | ||||||||||||
Canada | -0.6 | 0.6 | 1.3 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -1.9 | -0.0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
Japan | 2.4 | -3.7 | -1.8 | -4.1 | -1.9 | -0.7 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
United Kingdom | 1.1 | 0.0 | -2.0 | -2.6 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
Euro Area2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -0.9 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Germany | 5.7 | -1.7 | -2.1 | -1.9 | -1.7 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Emerging Market Economies | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.7 | -0.8 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
Asia | 7.8 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
Korea | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
China | 11.3 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
Latin America | -0.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | -2.7 | -1.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
Mexico | -0.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | -3.9 | -2.6 | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
Brazil | 6.9 | 6.4 | 7.4 | -0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
CONSUMER PRICES3 | Four-quarter changes | |||||||||||
Total Foreign | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Advanced Foreign Economies | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
of which: | ||||||||||||
Canada | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Japan | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 | -0.0 | -0.9 | -1.9 | -1.4 | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
United Kingdom4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
Euro Area2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Germany | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Emerging Market Economies | 5.9 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 |
Asia | 6.5 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
Korea | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
China | 8.0 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
Latin America | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
Mexico | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
Brazil | 4.6 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports. Return to table
2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat. Return to table
3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports. Return to table
4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate. Return to table
Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries
Measure and country | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | Projected | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |||||||
REAL GDP1 | |||||||||
Total Foreign | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.8 |
Advanced Foreign Economies | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 1.9 |
of which: | |||||||||
Canada | 3.5 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | -0.2 | -1.1 | 2.0 |
Japan | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | -1.9 | -0.6 | 1.2 |
United Kingdom | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | -0.2 | 1.7 |
Euro Area2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 1.9 |
Germany | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 1.8 |
Emerging Market Economies | 3.9 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 4.1 |
Asia | 6.4 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 5.7 |
Korea | 7.7 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3.8 |
China | 8.6 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 8.9 |
Latin America | 1.6 | 1.8 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.4 |
Mexico | 2.0 | 1.3 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 2.1 |
Brazil | 4.9 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 3.2 |
CONSUMER PRICES3 | |||||||||
Total Foreign | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
Advanced Foreign Economies | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
of which: | |||||||||
Canada | 3.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 |
Japan | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | -1.4 | -0.1 |
United Kingdom4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 2.4 |
Euro Area2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
Germany | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
Emerging Market Economies | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
Asia | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
Korea | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
China | -0.6 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
Latin America | 6.4 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
Mexico | 5.2 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
Brazil | 10.7 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 4.6 |
1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports. Return to table
2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat. Return to table
3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports. Return to table
4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate. Return to table
Outlook for U.S. International Transactions
2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | Projected | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |||||||
NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS | |||||||||
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth, Q4/Q4 | |||||||||
Net Goods & Services | -0.9 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | -0.0 | -0.4 |
Exports of G&S | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.3 |
Imports of G&S | -1.3 | -0.7 | -1.7 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.8 |
Percentage change, Q4/Q4 | |||||||||
Exports of G&S | 3.8 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 4.0 | -1.3 | 2.6 |
Services | 10.2 | 3.0 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 1.3 | -3.4 | 2.8 |
Computers | -1.1 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 14.2 | 8.1 | 0.9 | 13.7 | -0.9 | 9.5 |
Semiconductors | 10.1 | 38.3 | -6.0 | 17.6 | 2.9 | 29.3 | 4.0 | -0.7 | 11.0 |
Core Goods1 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 5.0 | -0.4 | 1.9 |
Imports of G&S | 9.7 | 4.8 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | -4.2 | -1.0 | 4.9 |
Services | 8.8 | 2.2 | 9.3 | -0.1 | 8.0 | 1.8 | -2.1 | 1.1 | 2.9 |
Oil | 3.8 | 1.2 | 10.8 | 1.0 | -9.2 | 0.6 | -7.3 | -6.6 | 3.2 |
Natural Gas | 19.5 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 13.7 | -12.6 | 12.1 | -9.9 | -4.8 | 0.8 |
Computers | 13.2 | 17.0 | 23.2 | 12.5 | 13.8 | 8.4 | 3.8 | -0.2 | 15.5 |
Semiconductors | 11.0 | -0.1 | 9.8 | 7.5 | -0.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | -1.4 | 5.0 |
Core Goods2 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 0.1 | -4.0 | -0.8 | 5.2 |
Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars | |||||||||
Net Goods & Services | -471.3 | -518.9 | -593.8 | -616.6 | -615.7 | -546.5 | -384.7 | -323.7 | -380.3 |
Exports of G&S | 1013.3 | 1026.1 | 1126.1 | 1205.3 | 1314.8 | 1425.9 | 1536.2 | 1523.0 | 1542.7 |
Imports of G&S | 1484.6 | 1545.0 | 1719.9 | 1821.9 | 1930.5 | 1972.4 | 1920.9 | 1846.7 | 1923.0 |
Billions of dollars | |||||||||
US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE | -461.3 | -523.4 | -625.0 | -729.0 | -788.1 | -731.2 | -676.5 | -428.0 | -483.8 |
Current Acct as Percent of GDP | -4.4 | -4.8 | -5.3 | -5.9 | -6.0 | -5.3 | -4.7 | -3.0 | -3.3 |
Net Goods & Services (BOP) | -423.7 | -496.9 | -607.7 | -711.6 | -753.3 | -700.3 | -654.2 | -354.4 | -460.3 |
Investment Income, Net | 33.0 | 51.0 | 73.4 | 78.8 | 63.8 | 88.8 | 108.2 | 55.6 | 103.7 |
Direct, Net | 102.4 | 112.7 | 150.9 | 173.2 | 184.1 | 233.9 | 248.9 | 174.7 | 192.6 |
Portfolio, Net | -69.4 | -61.7 | -77.5 | -94.4 | -120.3 | -145.1 | -140.7 | -119.1 | -88.9 |
Other Income & Transfers,Net | -70.5 | -77.5 | -90.6 | -96.2 | -98.6 | -119.7 | -130.4 | -129.2 | -127.2 |
1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table
2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table
Outlook for U.S. International Transactions
2005 | 2006 | 2007 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS | ||||||||||||
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth | ||||||||||||
Net Goods & Services | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -1.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 1.3 | -1.2 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
Exports of G&S | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
Imports of G&S | -0.5 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -2.4 | -1.6 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -1.2 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.4 |
Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
Exports of G&S | 8.1 | 8.8 | 0.4 | 10.9 | 16.7 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 15.6 | 0.6 | 8.8 | 23.0 | 4.4 |
Services | 10.2 | -2.8 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 13.4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 28.6 | -2.7 | 13.3 | 25.9 | 2.7 |
Computers | 16.8 | 27.9 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 12.0 | 17.5 | -7.9 | 12.7 | 3.9 | -4.0 | 14.4 | -9.2 |
Semiconductors | -5.2 | 11.7 | 30.7 | 38.0 | 20.3 | 16.1 | -5.6 | -15.0 | 15.9 | 23.7 | 20.5 | 61.7 |
Core Goods1 | 7.3 | 13.8 | -2.9 | 12.4 | 18.3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 6.6 | 22.1 | 3.7 |
Imports of G&S | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 15.3 | 10.3 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 7.7 | -3.7 | 3.0 | -2.3 |
Services | -5.7 | -0.0 | -1.0 | 6.8 | 17.7 | -2.0 | -0.3 | 18.4 | 4.2 | -2.0 | 6.3 | -0.9 |
Oil | 5.1 | -27.1 | -11.6 | 53.6 | -2.8 | -27.1 | 7.5 | -10.6 | 30.9 | -22.3 | -13.5 | 16.5 |
Natural Gas | 58.6 | -14.1 | 111.1 | -41.9 | -50.7 | 91.9 | 26.6 | -51.2 | 70.8 | 74.2 | 28.2 | -58.6 |
Computers | 3.2 | 11.6 | 20.4 | 15.4 | 20.7 | 21.1 | 19.7 | -4.3 | 34.9 | -6.5 | -0.2 | 9.7 |
Semiconductors | -9.2 | 7.7 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 17.7 | -15.8 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 6.4 |
Core Goods2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 0.3 | 12.7 | 13.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | -1.1 | 5.8 | -6.0 |
Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
Net Goods & Services | -623.7 | -601.3 | -603.6 | -637.8 | -636.0 | -619.4 | -623.0 | -584.2 | -618.6 | -571.2 | -511.8 | -484.5 |
Exports of G&S | 1177.9 | 1203.1 | 1204.3 | 1235.7 | 1284.3 | 1301.4 | 1312.6 | 1361.1 | 1363.2 | 1392.2 | 1466.2 | 1482.1 |
Imports of G&S | 1801.7 | 1804.4 | 1807.9 | 1873.6 | 1920.2 | 1920.9 | 1935.7 | 1945.3 | 1981.8 | 1963.4 | 1978.0 | 1966.5 |
Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE | -696.2 | -711.3 | -675.6 | -832.9 | -783.8 | -799.6 | -843.6 | -725.4 | -787.7 | -776.4 | -691.8 | -669.0 |
Current Account as % of GDP | -5.7 | -5.8 | -5.4 | -6.6 | -6.0 | -6.1 | -6.4 | -5.4 | -5.8 | -5.7 | -5.0 | -4.8 |
Net Goods & Services (BOP) | -664.0 | -682.9 | -721.4 | -778.0 | -756.4 | -767.4 | -789.9 | -699.5 | -718.2 | -715.3 | -672.5 | -695.1 |
Investment Income, Net | 88.6 | 77.8 | 88.7 | 59.9 | 65.2 | 70.7 | 51.7 | 67.7 | 57.8 | 45.8 | 98.9 | 152.6 |
Direct, Net | 170.2 | 168.5 | 187.8 | 166.3 | 177.2 | 189.2 | 171.9 | 198.2 | 201.1 | 196.2 | 238.8 | 299.3 |
Portfolio, Net | -81.6 | -90.7 | -99.0 | -106.5 | -112.0 | -118.5 | -120.3 | -130.5 | -143.2 | -150.4 | -139.9 | -146.7 |
Other Inc. & Transfers, Net | -120.9 | -106.2 | -42.9 | -114.8 | -92.6 | -103.0 | -105.4 | -93.6 | -127.4 | -106.9 | -118.3 | -126.4 |
1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table
2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table
Outlook for U.S. International Transactions
Projected | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS | ||||||||||||
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth | ||||||||||||
Net Goods & Services | 0.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.6 |
Exports of G&S | 0.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
Imports of G&S | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -1.2 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -1.0 |
Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
Exports of G&S | 5.1 | 12.3 | 3.4 | -4.1 | -2.2 | -3.2 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 |
Services | 6.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | -6.8 | -6.0 | -4.5 | -2.4 | -0.7 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 4.8 |
Computers | 0.4 | 57.4 | 5.7 | 0.0 | -3.9 | -3.9 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
Semiconductors | 4.6 | -6.8 | 19.7 | 0.0 | -3.9 | -3.9 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
Core Goods1 | 4.7 | 16.1 | 3.2 | -3.2 | -0.3 | -2.6 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Imports of G&S | -0.8 | -7.3 | -3.2 | -5.2 | -7.4 | -3.7 | 2.2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 6.5 |
Services | 5.5 | -8.0 | 3.2 | -8.3 | -3.1 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 6.3 | -1.5 | 3.1 | 3.8 |
Oil | 17.6 | -38.1 | -5.5 | 7.4 | -5.5 | -20.6 | -11.6 | 14.8 | 22.9 | -17.9 | -8.6 | 23.2 |
Natural Gas | -40.5 | 3.7 | -37.5 | 71.2 | -13.5 | 9.0 | 34.5 | -35.2 | 3.2 | 18.5 | 37.4 | -38.6 |
Computers | 6.3 | 26.0 | -13.2 | -0.0 | -3.9 | -3.9 | -0.0 | 7.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
Semiconductors | -3.3 | 14.4 | -3.0 | 0.0 | -3.9 | -3.9 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
Core Goods2 | -6.4 | 2.4 | -2.5 | -9.0 | -9.0 | -2.9 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
Net Goods & Services | -462.0 | -381.3 | -352.4 | -343.2 | -316.1 | -311.2 | -323.6 | -344.0 | -372.4 | -372.3 | -379.6 | -396.8 |
Exports of G&S | 1500.6 | 1544.7 | 1557.8 | 1541.5 | 1532.8 | 1520.3 | 1517.8 | 1521.1 | 1527.5 | 1536.0 | 1547.1 | 1560.4 |
Imports of G&S | 1962.6 | 1926.0 | 1910.2 | 1884.7 | 1848.9 | 1831.5 | 1841.4 | 1865.0 | 1899.9 | 1908.3 | 1926.6 | 1957.1 |
Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r. | ||||||||||||
US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE | -702.6 | -732.6 | -716.8 | -553.9 | -440.7 | -417.6 | -418.6 | -435.0 | -475.4 | -471.3 | -480.2 | -508.4 |
Current Account as % of GDP | -5.0 | -5.1 | -5.0 | -3.9 | -3.1 | -2.9 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -3.3 | -3.2 | -3.3 | -3.4 |
Net Goods & Services (BOP) | -708.4 | -722.2 | -707.4 | -478.9 | -330.8 | -338.0 | -357.1 | -391.6 | -438.7 | -446.2 | -463.3 | -493.2 |
Investment Income, Net | 140.0 | 116.5 | 114.8 | 61.5 | 27.3 | 46.9 | 65.0 | 83.0 | 89.8 | 101.3 | 109.6 | 114.2 |
Direct, Net | 281.0 | 255.4 | 256.1 | 203.2 | 170.7 | 174.1 | 174.6 | 179.2 | 184.3 | 190.3 | 195.7 | 200.2 |
Portfolio, Net | -141.0 | -138.9 | -141.2 | -141.7 | -143.4 | -127.2 | -109.7 | -96.2 | -94.5 | -89.0 | -86.1 | -85.9 |
Other Inc. & Transfers, Net | -134.2 | -126.9 | -124.3 | -136.5 | -137.3 | -126.5 | -126.5 | -126.5 | -126.5 | -126.5 | -126.5 | -129.5 |
1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors. Return to table
2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors. Return to table
† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals. Return to text