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December 2008 Greenbook Part 1 Tables and Charts


International Developments

Summary of Staff Projections

(Percent change from end of previous period except as noted, annual rate)
Indicator 2008 Projection
H1 Q3 2008:
Q4
2009 2010
H1 H2
Foreign output 1.8 .7 -1.6 -.6 1.5 2.8
Previous Greenbook 1.7 .5 .5 .9 1.8 2.9
Foreign CPI 5.1 4.4 -.1 .9 1.8 2.0
Previous Greenbook 5.1 4.4 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.1
Contribution to growth (percentage points)
U.S. net exports 1.8 1.1 .4 .5 -.5 -.4
Previous Greenbook 1.8 1.2 .4 .5 -.1 -.2

Note: Change for year measured as Q4/Q4; half-years are Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2.


Staff Projections of Selected Trade Prices

(Percent change from end of previous period, annual rate, excepted as noted)
Trade category 2008 Projection
H1 Q3 2008:
Q4
2009 2010
H1 H2
Imports
Core goods 9.5 4.6 -7.0 -5.5 .1 1.3
Previous Greenbook 9.5 6.5 -2.9 -2.2 1.1 1.5
Oil (dollars per barrel) 108.65 117.53 68.09 47.92 52.64 61.12
Previous Greenbook 108.65 117.85 75.26 70.17 73.32 78.65
Exports
Core goods 13.0 6.7 -13.5 -5.4 .6 .9
Previous Greenbook 13.0 7.8 -6.0 -1.3 .9 1.0

Note: Prices for core exports exclude computers and semiconductors. Prices for core imports exclude computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas. Both prices are on a National Income and Product Account chain-weighted basis.

The price of imported oil for multiquarter periods is the price for the final quarter of the period. Imported oil includes both crude oil and refined products.


Staff Projections for Trade in Goods and Services

(Percent change from end of previous period, annual rate)
Measure 2008 Projection
H1 Q3 2008:
Q4
2009 2010
H1 H2
Real imports -4.1 -3.2 -5.2 -5.6 3.7 4.9
Previous Greenbook -4.1 -1.0 -.3 -.7 2.5 4.3
Real exports 8.6 3.4 -4.1 -2.7 .1 2.6
Previous Greenbook 8.6 8.0 2.6 3.1 2.5 3.9

Note: Changes for years are measured as Q4/Q4; half-years are measured as Q2/Q4 or Q4/Q2.


Alternative Scenario:
Lower Foreign Demand

(Percent change from previous period, annual rate, except as noted)
Indicator and simulation 2009 2010 2011 2012-13
H1 H2 H1 H2
U.S. real GDP
Baseline -3.1 1.3 2.1 2.8 5.1 5.7
Lower Foreign Demand -3.3 1.0 1.7 2.3 4.6 5.3
U.S. PCE prices excluding food and energy
Baseline 1.4 .9 .8 .8 .7 .7
Lower Foreign Demand 1.4 .8 .6 .6 .4 .2
U.S. federal funds rate (percent)
Baseline .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 1.3
Lower Foreign Demand .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3
U.S. trade balance (percent share of GDP)
Baseline -2.3 -2.6 -3.0 -3.2 -3.6 -4.3
Lower Foreign Demand -2.2 -2.5 -3.0 -3.3 -4.0 -4.9

Note: H1 is Q2/Q4; H2 is Q4/Q2. The federal funds rate is the average rate for the final quarter of the period.


Evolution of the Staff Forecast

Figure: Current Account Balance

January 2007 to December 2008, Percent of GDP, line chart. 2008 series starts at about -6.7 and increases to end at about -4.7. 2009 series begins in September 2007 at about -5.3 and increases to end at about -3. 2010 series begins in September 2008 at about -3.5 and ends at -3.5.

Figure: Foreign Real GDP

January 2007 to December 2008. Line chart. Percent change, Q4/Q4. 2008 series starts at about 3.5 and decreases to end at about .7. 2009 starts in September 2007 at about 3.3, fluctuates until September 2008 then decreases to end at about .3. 2010 begins in September 2009 at about 3.5 and decreases to end at about 2.7.

Figure: Core Import Prices

Line chart, January 2007 to December 2008. Percent change, Q4/Q4. The 2008 series starts at about 1, fluctuates and begins to increase in early 2008. It increases to about 7 by September 2008, then decreases to end at about 3.5. The 2009 series begins in September 2007 at about 1, remains about there until September 2008 when it begins to decrease to end at about -2.5. The 2010 series begins in September 2008 at about 1, and ends at about 1. Note: Prices for merchandise imports excluding computers, semiconductors, oil, and natural gas.


Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries

(Percent changes)
Measure and country Projected
2008 2009 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
REAL GDP1 Quarterly changes at an annual rate
Total Foreign 2.3 1.3 0.7 -1.6 -1.2 0.1 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.2
Advanced Foreign Economies 1.0 -0.3 -0.0 -2.2 -2.2 -1.3 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.2
of which:
Canada -0.6 0.6 1.3 -2.0 -3.0 -1.9 -0.0 0.7 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.4
Japan 2.4 -3.7 -1.8 -4.1 -1.9 -0.7 -0.2 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3
United Kingdom 1.1 0.0 -2.0 -2.6 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 1.9 0.7 1.4 2.3 2.5
Euro Area2 2.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.8 -1.5 -0.9 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.1
Germany 5.7 -1.7 -2.1 -1.9 -1.7 -1.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.1
Emerging Market Economies 4.0 3.4 1.7 -0.8 0.2 1.8 2.6 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.6
Asia 7.8 3.9 0.3 0.5 1.6 3.1 4.1 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.0
Korea 3.3 3.4 2.1 -0.5 0.0 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0
China 11.3 10.8 5.4 4.7 6.0 7.0 7.6 8.0 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.0
Latin America -0.1 2.6 3.0 -2.7 -1.8 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.1
Mexico -0.8 0.8 2.6 -3.9 -2.6 -0.4 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.0
Brazil 6.9 6.4 7.4 -0.5 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.3
CONSUMER PRICES3 Four-quarter changes
Total Foreign 4.1 4.7 4.8 3.6 2.5 1.5 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0
Advanced Foreign Economies 2.2 2.7 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.4 -0.3 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3
of which:
Canada 1.8 2.3 3.4 2.4 1.7 0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.3
Japan 1.0 1.4 2.2 1.2 -0.0 -0.9 -1.9 -1.4 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
United Kingdom4 2.4 3.4 4.8 3.5 1.9 0.8 -0.4 0.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4
Euro Area2 3.4 3.6 3.8 2.4 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Germany 3.1 3.0 3.3 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4
Emerging Market Economies 5.9 6.7 6.2 5.0 3.7 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8
Asia 6.5 7.1 6.0 4.3 2.6 1.4 1.0 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5
Korea 3.8 4.8 5.5 4.6 4.3 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
China 8.0 7.8 5.2 3.5 1.4 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5
Latin America 4.5 5.5 6.1 6.3 5.9 5.0 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4
Mexico 3.9 4.9 5.5 5.7 5.4 4.5 3.6 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9
Brazil 4.6 5.5 6.3 6.3 6.0 5.5 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6

1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports.  Return to table

2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat.  Return to table

3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports.  Return to table

4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate.  Return to table


Outlook for Foreign Real GDP and Consumer Prices: Selected Countries

(Percent, Q4 to Q4)
Measure and country 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Projected
2008 2009 2010
REAL GDP1
Total Foreign 3.0 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.2 0.7 0.5 2.8
Advanced Foreign Economies 2.5 1.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 -0.4 -0.6 1.9
of which:
Canada 3.5 1.5 3.7 3.0 2.2 2.8 -0.2 -1.1 2.0
Japan 2.1 2.4 1.1 2.9 2.1 2.0 -1.9 -0.6 1.2
United Kingdom 2.4 3.2 2.3 2.0 3.2 2.9 -0.9 -0.2 1.7
Euro Area2 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.1 3.3 2.1 -0.2 -0.3 1.9
Germany 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.6 4.1 1.7 -0.1 -0.4 1.8
Emerging Market Economies 3.9 4.5 5.5 5.8 5.7 6.4 2.1 1.9 4.1
Asia 6.4 6.9 6.0 7.6 7.0 7.8 3.1 3.4 5.7
Korea 7.7 4.1 2.9 5.6 4.2 5.9 2.1 1.7 3.8
China 8.6 10.3 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.4 8.0 7.1 8.9
Latin America 1.6 1.8 5.0 3.9 4.4 4.9 0.7 0.1 2.4
Mexico 2.0 1.3 4.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 -0.4 -0.5 2.1
Brazil 4.9 1.0 4.7 3.6 4.6 6.1 5.0 1.8 3.2
CONSUMER PRICES3
Total Foreign 2.5 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.1 3.6 3.6 1.4 2.0
Advanced Foreign Economies 2.1 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.2 2.3 0.4 1.3
of which:
Canada 3.8 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.3 2.4 2.4 0.2 1.3
Japan -0.5 -0.3 0.5 -1.0 0.3 0.5 1.2 -1.4 -0.1
United Kingdom4 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.1 3.5 0.4 2.4
Euro Area2 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.8 2.9 2.4 1.5 2.0
Germany 1.2 1.1 2.1 2.2 1.3 3.1 2.0 1.0 1.4
Emerging Market Economies 2.9 3.1 3.9 3.0 2.9 5.1 5.0 2.4 2.8
Asia 0.8 2.3 3.1 2.6 2.3 5.4 4.3 1.8 2.5
Korea 3.4 3.5 3.4 2.5 2.1 3.4 4.6 1.9 1.9
China -0.6 2.7 3.2 1.4 2.1 6.6 3.5 1.6 2.5
Latin America 6.4 4.9 5.6 3.8 4.1 4.3 6.3 3.7 3.4
Mexico 5.2 3.9 5.3 3.1 4.1 3.8 5.7 3.1 2.9
Brazil 10.7 11.5 7.2 6.1 3.2 4.3 6.3 5.0 4.6

1. Foreign GDP aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. exports.  Return to table

2. Harmonized data for euro area from Eurostat.  Return to table

3. Foreign CPI aggregates calculated using shares of U.S. non-oil imports.  Return to table

4. CPI excluding mortgage interest payments, which is the targeted inflation rate.  Return to table


Outlook for U.S. International Transactions

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Projected
2008 2009 2010
NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth, Q4/Q4
Net Goods & Services -0.9 -0.1 -0.9 -0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 -0.0 -0.4
Exports of G&S 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.5 -0.2 0.3
Imports of G&S -1.3 -0.7 -1.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.7 0.2 -0.8
Percentage change, Q4/Q4
Exports of G&S 3.8 5.8 7.4 7.0 10.1 8.9 4.0 -1.3 2.6
Services 10.2 3.0 8.3 4.0 11.5 9.3 1.3 -3.4 2.8
Computers -1.1 11.3 5.8 14.2 8.1 0.9 13.7 -0.9 9.5
Semiconductors 10.1 38.3 -6.0 17.6 2.9 29.3 4.0 -0.7 11.0
Core Goods1 0.6 4.9 8.0 7.4 10.0 8.2 5.0 -0.4 1.9
  
Imports of G&S 9.7 4.8 11.5 4.8 3.8 1.1 -4.2 -1.0 4.9
Services 8.8 2.2 9.3 -0.1 8.0 1.8 -2.1 1.1 2.9
Oil 3.8 1.2 10.8 1.0 -9.2 0.6 -7.3 -6.6 3.2
Natural Gas 19.5 1.3 4.9 13.7 -12.6 12.1 -9.9 -4.8 0.8
Computers 13.2 17.0 23.2 12.5 13.8 8.4 3.8 -0.2 15.5
Semiconductors 11.0 -0.1 9.8 7.5 -0.3 3.8 1.8 -1.4 5.0
Core Goods2 10.0 5.2 11.4 5.9 5.7 0.1 -4.0 -0.8 5.2
Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars
Net Goods & Services -471.3 -518.9 -593.8 -616.6 -615.7 -546.5 -384.7 -323.7 -380.3
Exports of G&S 1013.3 1026.1 1126.1 1205.3 1314.8 1425.9 1536.2 1523.0 1542.7
Imports of G&S 1484.6 1545.0 1719.9 1821.9 1930.5 1972.4 1920.9 1846.7 1923.0
Billions of dollars
US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -461.3 -523.4 -625.0 -729.0 -788.1 -731.2 -676.5 -428.0 -483.8
Current Acct as Percent of GDP -4.4 -4.8 -5.3 -5.9 -6.0 -5.3 -4.7 -3.0 -3.3
  
Net Goods & Services (BOP) -423.7 -496.9 -607.7 -711.6 -753.3 -700.3 -654.2 -354.4 -460.3
  
Investment Income, Net 33.0 51.0 73.4 78.8 63.8 88.8 108.2 55.6 103.7
Direct, Net 102.4 112.7 150.9 173.2 184.1 233.9 248.9 174.7 192.6
Portfolio, Net -69.4 -61.7 -77.5 -94.4 -120.3 -145.1 -140.7 -119.1 -88.9
  
Other Income & Transfers,Net -70.5 -77.5 -90.6 -96.2 -98.6 -119.7 -130.4 -129.2 -127.2

1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors.  Return to table

2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors.  Return to table


Outlook for U.S. International Transactions

2005 2006 2007
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth
Net Goods & Services 0.3 0.8 -0.1 -1.3 0.1 0.6 -0.1 1.3 -1.2 1.7 2.0 0.9
Exports of G&S 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.4 1.7 0.1 1.0 2.5 0.5
Imports of G&S -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -2.4 -1.6 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 -1.2 0.7 -0.5 0.4
Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r.
Exports of G&S 8.1 8.8 0.4 10.9 16.7 5.5 3.5 15.6 0.6 8.8 23.0 4.4
Services 10.2 -2.8 3.2 5.7 13.4 2.7 3.2 28.6 -2.7 13.3 25.9 2.7
Computers 16.8 27.9 8.3 5.2 12.0 17.5 -7.9 12.7 3.9 -4.0 14.4 -9.2
Semiconductors -5.2 11.7 30.7 38.0 20.3 16.1 -5.6 -15.0 15.9 23.7 20.5 61.7
Core Goods1 7.3 13.8 -2.9 12.4 18.3 5.6 4.8 11.8 1.3 6.6 22.1 3.7
  
Imports of G&S 3.2 0.6 0.8 15.3 10.3 0.1 3.1 2.0 7.7 -3.7 3.0 -2.3
Services -5.7 -0.0 -1.0 6.8 17.7 -2.0 -0.3 18.4 4.2 -2.0 6.3 -0.9
Oil 5.1 -27.1 -11.6 53.6 -2.8 -27.1 7.5 -10.6 30.9 -22.3 -13.5 16.5
Natural Gas 58.6 -14.1 111.1 -41.9 -50.7 91.9 26.6 -51.2 70.8 74.2 28.2 -58.6
Computers 3.2 11.6 20.4 15.4 20.7 21.1 19.7 -4.3 34.9 -6.5 -0.2 9.7
Semiconductors -9.2 7.7 14.0 20.0 0.2 -0.5 17.7 -15.8 1.2 6.7 1.0 6.4
Core Goods2 4.8 6.1 0.3 12.7 13.7 4.9 1.2 3.2 2.2 -1.1 5.8 -6.0
Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, s.a.a.r.
Net Goods & Services -623.7 -601.3 -603.6 -637.8 -636.0 -619.4 -623.0 -584.2 -618.6 -571.2 -511.8 -484.5
Exports of G&S 1177.9 1203.1 1204.3 1235.7 1284.3 1301.4 1312.6 1361.1 1363.2 1392.2 1466.2 1482.1
Imports of G&S 1801.7 1804.4 1807.9 1873.6 1920.2 1920.9 1935.7 1945.3 1981.8 1963.4 1978.0 1966.5
Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r.
US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -696.2 -711.3 -675.6 -832.9 -783.8 -799.6 -843.6 -725.4 -787.7 -776.4 -691.8 -669.0
Current Account as % of GDP -5.7 -5.8 -5.4 -6.6 -6.0 -6.1 -6.4 -5.4 -5.8 -5.7 -5.0 -4.8
  
Net Goods & Services (BOP) -664.0 -682.9 -721.4 -778.0 -756.4 -767.4 -789.9 -699.5 -718.2 -715.3 -672.5 -695.1
  
Investment Income, Net 88.6 77.8 88.7 59.9 65.2 70.7 51.7 67.7 57.8 45.8 98.9 152.6
Direct, Net 170.2 168.5 187.8 166.3 177.2 189.2 171.9 198.2 201.1 196.2 238.8 299.3
Portfolio, Net -81.6 -90.7 -99.0 -106.5 -112.0 -118.5 -120.3 -130.5 -143.2 -150.4 -139.9 -146.7
  
Other Inc. & Transfers, Net -120.9 -106.2 -42.9 -114.8 -92.6 -103.0 -105.4 -93.6 -127.4 -106.9 -118.3 -126.4

1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors.  Return to table

2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors.  Return to table


Outlook for U.S. International Transactions

Projected
2008 2009 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
NIPA REAL EXPORTS and IMPORTS
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth
Net Goods & Services 0.8 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 0.0 -0.2 -0.6
Exports of G&S 0.6 1.5 0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4
Imports of G&S 0.1 1.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.6 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -0.3 -0.6 -1.0
Percentage change from previous period, s.a.a.r.
Exports of G&S 5.1 12.3 3.4 -4.1 -2.2 -3.2 -0.7 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.5
Services 6.4 3.8 2.4 -6.8 -6.0 -4.5 -2.4 -0.7 0.7 2.2 3.8 4.8
Computers 0.4 57.4 5.7 0.0 -3.9 -3.9 0.0 4.7 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
Semiconductors 4.6 -6.8 19.7 0.0 -3.9 -3.9 0.0 5.4 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0
Core Goods1 4.7 16.1 3.2 -3.2 -0.3 -2.6 0.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.3
  
Imports of G&S -0.8 -7.3 -3.2 -5.2 -7.4 -3.7 2.2 5.2 7.7 1.8 3.9 6.5
Services 5.5 -8.0 3.2 -8.3 -3.1 2.3 3.4 1.8 6.3 -1.5 3.1 3.8
Oil 17.6 -38.1 -5.5 7.4 -5.5 -20.6 -11.6 14.8 22.9 -17.9 -8.6 23.2
Natural Gas -40.5 3.7 -37.5 71.2 -13.5 9.0 34.5 -35.2 3.2 18.5 37.4 -38.6
Computers 6.3 26.0 -13.2 -0.0 -3.9 -3.9 -0.0 7.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5
Semiconductors -3.3 14.4 -3.0 0.0 -3.9 -3.9 0.0 2.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Core Goods2 -6.4 2.4 -2.5 -9.0 -9.0 -2.9 3.7 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.1
Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, s.a.a.r.
Net Goods & Services -462.0 -381.3 -352.4 -343.2 -316.1 -311.2 -323.6 -344.0 -372.4 -372.3 -379.6 -396.8
Exports of G&S 1500.6 1544.7 1557.8 1541.5 1532.8 1520.3 1517.8 1521.1 1527.5 1536.0 1547.1 1560.4
Imports of G&S 1962.6 1926.0 1910.2 1884.7 1848.9 1831.5 1841.4 1865.0 1899.9 1908.3 1926.6 1957.1
Billions of dollars, s.a.a.r.
US CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -702.6 -732.6 -716.8 -553.9 -440.7 -417.6 -418.6 -435.0 -475.4 -471.3 -480.2 -508.4
Current Account as % of GDP -5.0 -5.1 -5.0 -3.9 -3.1 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0 -3.3 -3.2 -3.3 -3.4
  
Net Goods & Services (BOP) -708.4 -722.2 -707.4 -478.9 -330.8 -338.0 -357.1 -391.6 -438.7 -446.2 -463.3 -493.2
  
Investment Income, Net 140.0 116.5 114.8 61.5 27.3 46.9 65.0 83.0 89.8 101.3 109.6 114.2
Direct, Net 281.0 255.4 256.1 203.2 170.7 174.1 174.6 179.2 184.3 190.3 195.7 200.2
Portfolio, Net -141.0 -138.9 -141.2 -141.7 -143.4 -127.2 -109.7 -96.2 -94.5 -89.0 -86.1 -85.9
  
Other Inc. & Transfers, Net -134.2 -126.9 -124.3 -136.5 -137.3 -126.5 -126.5 -126.5 -126.5 -126.5 -126.5 -129.5

1. Merchandise exports excluding computers and semiconductors.  Return to table

2. Merchandise imports excluding oil, natural gas, computers, and semiconductors.  Return to table


† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: March 7, 2014