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June 2010 Tealbook Book A Tables and Charts


Risks and Uncertainty

[Box:] Consequences of a Severe European Sovereign Debt Crisis

Figure: U.S. Real GDP

Line chart, 2008 to 2016. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Baseline" and "European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Baseline begins at about -1 and generally increases to about 1 in mid-2008. It generally decreases to about -6 in early 2009 then generally increases to about 6 in late 2009. It generally decreases to about 3 in mid-2010 then generally increases to about 4 in mid-2012. It generally decreases ending at about 3. European Sovereign Debt Crisis begins at about -1 and generally increases to about 1 in mid-2008. It generally decreases to about -6 in early 2009 then generally increases to about 6 in late 2009. It generally decreases to about -3 in late 2010 then generally increases to about 6 in early 2013. It generally decreases ending at about 3.5.

Figure: U.S. Unemployment Rate

Line chart, 2008 to 2016. Unit is percent. There are two series, "Baseline" and "European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Baseline begins at about 5 and generally increases to about 10 in late 2009. It generally decreases to about 5 in mid-2014 then remains about constant to the end of the timeline. European Sovereign Debt Crisis begins at about 5 and generally increases to about 11 in early 2012. It generally decreases ending at about 5.5.

Figure: U.S. PCE Prices Excluding Food and Energy

Line chart, 2008 to 2016. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Baseline" and "European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Baseline begins at about 2.5 and generally decreases to about -.5 in mid-2011. It generally increases ending at about 2.5. European Sovereign Debt Crisis begins at about 2.5 and generally decreases to about 1 in mid-2010. It generally increases ending at about 1.8.

Figure: Federal Funds Rate

Line chart, 2008 to 2016. Unit is percent. There are two series, "Baseline" and "European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Baseline begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about 0 in early 2009. It remains about constant until early 2012 then generally increases ending at about 4. European Sovereign Debt Crisis begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about 0 in early 2009. It remains about constant until late 2013 then generally increases ending at about 4.


Alternative Scenarios

(Percent change, annual rate, from end of preceding period except as noted)
Measure and scenario 2010 2011 2012 2013-14
H1 H2
Real GDP
Extended Tealbook baseline 3.4 3.0 3.7 4.8 4.3
Normalization in Europe 3.4 3.9 4.7 5.0 4.1
Stronger recovery 3.4 5.1 5.6 4.8 3.4
Weaker consumption 3.4 1.7 2.3 4.9 5.1
Jobless recovery 3.4 3.0 3.7 5.9 5.6
Lower potential 3.4 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.2
Greater disinflation 3.4 3.0 3.8 4.8 5.1
Higher inflation 3.4 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.1
Unemployment rate1
Extended Tealbook baseline 9.8 9.5 8.6 7.1 5.2
Normalization in Europe 9.8 9.4 8.1 6.4 4.7
Stronger recovery 9.8 9.2 7.6 6.1 5.1
Weaker consumption 9.8 9.7 9.3 7.9 5.2
Jobless recovery 9.8 10.0 9.7 8.2 4.8
Lower potential 9.8 9.6 9.1 8.4 7.3
Greater disinflation 9.8 9.5 8.6 7.1 4.7
Higher inflation 9.8 9.5 8.6 7.3 5.6
Core PCE inflation
Extended Tealbook baseline .8 .8 .8 1.0 1.3
Normalization in Europe .8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3
Stronger recovery .8 .8 .9 1.1 1.5
Weaker consumption .8 .8 .7 .7 1.1
Jobless recovery .8 .7 .4 .3 .8
Lower potential .8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8
Greater disinflation .8 .4 .0 -.4 -.3
Higher inflation .8 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.9
Federal funds rate1
Extended Tealbook baseline .2 .1 .1 .8 3.5
Normalization in Europe .2 .1 .1 1.5 4.0
Stronger recovery .2 .1 .8 2.1 3.9
Weaker consumption .2 .1 .1 .1 3.3
Jobless recovery .2 .1 .1 .1 3.2
Lower potential .2 .1 1.2 2.3 4.0
Greater disinflation .2 .1 .1 .1 1.8
Higher inflation .2 .1 .6 1.9 3.9

1. Percent, average for the final quarter of the period.  Return to table


Forecast Confidence Intervals and Alternative Scenarios

Confidence Intervals Based on FRB/US Stochastic Simulations

Figure: Real GDP

Line chart, 2008 to 2014. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are eight series, "Extended Tealbook baseline," "Normalization in Europe," "Stronger recovery," "Weaker Consumption," "Jobless Recovery," "Lower Potential," "Greater disinflation," and "Higher Inflation." Extended Tealbook baseline begins at about 2 and generally decreases to about -4 in early 2009. It generally increases to about 3.5 in mid-2010 then generally decreases to about 3 in early 2011. It generally increases to about 5 in late 2012, then generally decreases ending at about 4. Normalization in Europe begins at about 3.5 and generally increases to about 5 in early 2013. It generally decreases ending at about 3.75. Stronger recovery generally begins at about 3.5 and increases to about 5.5 in early 2011. It generally decreases ending at about 3. Weaker consumption begins at about 3.5 and generally decreases to about 1.5 in early 2011. It generally increases to about 6 in early 2013, then generally decreases ending at about 4.5. Jobless recovery begins at about 3.5 and generally increases to about 6.5 in early 2013. It generally decreases ending at about 5. Lower potential begins at about 3.5 and generally decreases to about 2.5. It generally increases to about 3.5 in late 2012, then generally decreases ending at about 3. Greater disinflation begins at about 3.5 and generally decreases to about 3 in early 2011. It generally increases to about 5.25 in early 2013 then generally decreases ending at about 5. Higher inflation begins at about 3.5 and generally decreases to about 3 in late 2010. It generally increases to about 4.5 in early 2013, then generally decreases ending at about 4. 70 percent interval is presented as a dark gray shaded range that begins at about [2.5, .5] in mid-2009 and generally increases to about [1.8, 6.1]. 90 percent interval is presented as a light gray shaded range beginning at about [2, 3] in mid-2009 and generally increases to about [.5, 8].

Figure: Unemployment rate

Line chart, 2008 to 2014. Unit is percent. There are eight series, "Extended Tealbook baseline," "Normalization in Europe," "Stronger recovery," "Weaker Consumption," "Jobless Recovery," "Lower Potential," "Greater disinflation," and "Higher Inflation." Extended Tealbook baseline begins at about 4.75 and generally increases to about 10.0 in late 2009. It generally decreases ending at about 5.25. Normalization in Europe begins at about 9.5 in late 2009 and generally decreases ending at about 4.75. Stronger recovery begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases to about 5.25 in early 2013. It remains about constant to the end of the timeline. Weaker consumption begins at about 9.5 in late 2009 then generally decreases ending at about 5.25. Jobless recovery begins at about 9.5 in late 2009 then generally increases to about 10.0 in early 2011. It generally decreases ending at about 5.0. Lower potential begins at about 9.5 in late 2009 then generally decreases ending at about 7.5. Greater disinflation begins at about 9.5 and generally decreases ending at about 4.75. Higher inflation begins at about 9.5 in late 2009 then generally decreases ending at about 5.5. 70 percent interval is presented as a dark gray shaded range. It begins at about 9.5 in early 2010 then generally increases to a range of about [4.25, 6.5]. 90 percent interval is presented as a light gray shaded range. It begins at about 9.5 in early 2010 then generally increases to a range of about [3.5, 7.25].

Figure: PCE Prices excluding Food and Energy

Line chart, 2008 to 2014. Unit is 4-quarter percent change. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are eight series, "Extended Tealbook baseline," "Normalization in Europe," "Stronger recovery," "Weaker Consumption," "Jobless Recovery," "Lower Potential," "Greater disinflation," and "Higher Inflation." Extended Tealbook baseline begins at about 2.5and generally increases to about 2.6 in late 2008. It generally decreases to about 1.25 in mid-2009 then generally increases to about 1.5 in late 2009. It generally decreases to about 0.75 in late 2010 then generally increases ending at about 1.5. Normalization in Europe begins at about 1.15 in late 2009 then generally decreases to about 1.0 in mid-2010. It generally increases to about 1.25 in early 2011 then generally decreases to about 1.25 in late 2012. It generally increases ending at about 1.5. Stronger recovery begins at about 1.15 in late 2009 then generally decreases to about 0.75 in late 2010. It generally increases ending at about 1.75. Weaker consumption begins at about 1.15 in late 2009 then generally decreases to about 0.75 in late 2010. It generally increases ending at about 1.25. Jobless recovery begins at about 1.25 in late 2009 then generally decreases to about 0.25 in late 2012. It generally increases ending at about 1.0. Lower potential begins at about 1.15 in late 2010 then generally decreases to about 1.0 in late 2010. It generally increases ending at about 2.0. Greater disinflation begins at about 1.15 in late 2009 then generally decreases to about -0.5 in late 2012. It generally increases ending at about negative 0.15. Higher inflation begins at about 1.14 in late 2009 then generally decreases to about 1.0 in late 2010. It generally increases ending at about 2.0. 70 percent interval is presented as a dark gray shaded area. It begins at about 1.25 in early 2010 then increases to a range of about [0.25, 1.75] in mid-2012. It generally decreases ending at about [0.5, 2.4]. 90 percent interval is presented as a light gray shaded area. It begins at about 1.4 and generally increases to a range of about [-0.5, 2.25] in mid-2012. It generally decreases ending at about [0.0, 2.9].

Figure: Federal Funds Rate

Line chart, 2008 to 2014. Unit is percent. There are eight series, "Extended Tealbook baseline," "Normalization in Europe," "Stronger recovery," "Weaker Consumption," "Jobless Recovery," "Lower Potential," "Greater disinflation," and "Higher Inflation." Extended Tealbook baseline begins at about 3 and generally decreases to about 0 in early 2009. It remains about constant until mid-2012 then generally increases ending at about 3.5. Normalization in Europe begins at about late 2011 then generally increases ending at about 4. Stronger recovery begins at about 0 in early 2011 then generally increases ending at about 4. Weaker consumption begins at about 0 in mid-2012 and remains about constant until late 2012. It generally increases ending at about 3.1. Jobless recovery begins at about 0 in late 2012 and remains about constant until mid-2013. It generally increases ending at about 3.1. Lower potential begins at about 0 in early 2011. It generally increases ending at about 4.0. Greater disinflation begins at about 0 in early 2013 and remains about constant until mid-2013. It generally increases ending at about 2. Higher inflation begins at about 0 in early 2011 and generally increases ending at about 4. 70 percent interval is presented as a dark gray shaded range. It begins at about 0 from late 2010 to early 2013 and generally increases ending at a range of about [2, 5.25]. 90 percent interval is presented as a light gray shaded range. It begins at about 0 from late 2010 to mid-2014 and generally increases ending at about [0.5, 6.25].


Selected Tealbook Projections and 70 Percent Confidence Intervals Derived from Historical Tealbook Forecast Errors and FRB/US Simulations

Measure 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real GDP (percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Projection 3.2 3.7 4.8 4.7 3.9
Confidence interval
Tealbook forecast errors 1.9-4.5 1.8-5.5
FRB/US stochastic simulations 2.2-4.2 2.1-5.6 2.7-6.8 2.5-6.8 1.7-6.3
Civilian unemployment rate (percent, Q4)
Projection 9.5 8.6 7.1 5.8 5.2
Confidence interval
Tealbook forecast errors 9.0-10.0 7.9-9.4
FRB/US stochastic simulations 9.1-9.9 7.8-9.4 6.0-8.2 4.7-7.0 4.1-6.4
PCE prices, total (percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Projection .9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5
Confidence interval
Tealbook forecast errors .2-1.7 -.2-2.2
FRB/US stochastic simulations .4-1.6 .1-2.1 -.1-2.1 .2-2.4 .4-2.6
PCE prices excluding food and energy (percent change, Q4 to Q4)
Projection .8 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Confidence interval
Tealbook forecast errors .3-1.3 .1-1.6
FRB/US stochastic simulations .5-1.2 .2-1.6 .1-1.8 .4-2.1 .7-2.4
Federal funds rate (percent, Q4)
Projection .1 .1 .8 2.5 3.5
Confidence interval
FRB/US stochastic simulations .1-.1 .1-1.2 .1-2.7 .8-4.4 1.9-5.3

Notes: Shocks underlying FRB/US stochastic simulations are randomly drawn from the 1969-2009 set of model equation residuals.

Intervals derived from Tealbook forecast errors are based on projections made from 1979-2009, except for PCE prices excluding food and energy, where the sample is 1981-2009.

… Not applicable. The Tealbook forecast horizon has typically extended about two years.  Return to table


Tealbook Forecast Compared with Blue Chip

(Blue Chip survey released June 10, 2010)

Figure: Real GDP

Line chart, 2008 to 2011. Unit is percent change, annual rate. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Blue Chip Consensus" and "Staff Forecast." Both series begin at about -0.5 and generally increase together to about 1.75 in mid-2008. They generally decrease together to about minus 6 in early 2009 then generally increase together to about 6 in late 2009. They generally decrease together to about 3 in early 2010 then generally increase together to about 3.5 in mid-2010. Blue chip consensus generally decreases to about 3 in late 2010 and remains about constant to the end of the timeline. Staff forecast decreases to about 2.5 in mid-2010 then generally increases ending at about 4. There is a shaded area that begins at about 3 in early 2010 and generally increases to a range of about [2, 4] in mid-2010. It remains about constant to the end of the timeline.

Note: The shaded area represents the area between the Blue Chip top ten and bottom ten averages.

Figure: Real PCE

Line chart, 2008 to 2011. Unit is percent change, annual rate. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Blue Chip Consensus" and "Staff Forecast." Both series begin at about -0.5 then generally increase together to about 0 in 2008:Q2. The generally decrease together to about -0.75 in 2008:Q3 then generally increase together to about 0.5 in 2009:Q1. They generally decrease together to about -1 in 2009:Q2 then generally increase together to about 2.75 in 2009:Q3. They generally decrease together to about 1.25 in 2009:Q4 then generally increase together to about 3 in 2010:Q1. Blue chip consensus generally decreases to about 3 in 2010:Q3 then remains about constant to the end of the timeline. Staff forecast generally decreases to about 2 in 2010:Q2 then generally increases ending at about 3.25. There is a shaded area that begins at about 3.5 then increases to a range of about [1.5, 4] in 2011:Q1. It generally decreases ending at a range of about [2, 4].

Figure: Unemployment Rate

Line chart, 2008 to 2011. Unit is percent. There are two series, "Blue chip consensus" and "Staff Forecast." Both series begin at about 5 in early 2008 then generally increase together to about 10 in late 2009. The generally decrease to 9.5 in early 2010 and remain about constant until mid-2010. They generally decrease together ending at about 8.5. There is a shaded area that begins at about 9.5 in early 2010 then generally decreases ending at a range of about [7.75, 9.5].

Figure: Consumer Price Index

Line chart, 2008 to 2011. Unit is percent change, annual rate. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Blue chip consensus" and "Staff forecast." Both series begin at about 4.5 and generally increase together to about 6.5 in 2008:Q3. They generally decrease together to about -10 in 2008:Q4 then generally increase together to about 3.5 in 2009:Q3. They generally decrease together to about 2 in 2010:Q1. Blue chip consensus decreases to about 0 in 2010:Q2 then generally increases ending at about 2. Staff forecast decreases to about -1 in 2010:Q2then generally increases to about 2 in 2010:Q4. It generally decreases ending at about 1. There is a shaded area begins at about 2 in 2010:Q1 then generally decreases to a range of about [-2, 2] in 2010:Q2 then generally increases ending at about [1, 3].

Figure: Treasury Bill Rate

Line chart, 2008 to 2011. Unit is percent. 0 on the scale is marked by a horizontal line. There are two series, "Blue chip consensus" and "Staff Forecast." Both series begin at about 2 and generally decrease to about 0 in 2009:Q4. Blue chip consensus generally increases ending at about 2. Staff forecasts remains about constant to the end of the timeline. There is a shaded area that begins at about 0 and generally increases ending at a range of about [1, 3].

Figure: 10-Year Treasury Yield

Line chart, 2008 to 2011. Unit is percent. There are two series, "Blue Chip Consensus" and "Staff Forecast." Both series begin at about 3.75 and generally increase to about 4.0 in 2008:Q2. They generally decrease together to about 2.75 in 2009:Q1 then generally increase together to about 3.75 in 2010:Q1. Blue Chip Consensus decreases to about 3.5 in 2010:Q3 then generally increases ending at about 4.5. Staff forecast generally decreases to about 3.5 in 2010:Q3 then generally increases ending at about 4.0. There is a shaded area that begins at about 3.75 in 2010:Q1 then generally increases ending at a range of about [4.0, 5.5].

Note: The yield is for on-the-run Treasury securities. Over the forecast period, the staff's projected yield is assumed to be 15 basis points below the off-the-run yield.


† Note: Data values for figures are rounded and may not sum to totals.  Return to text

Last update: January 29, 2016