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June 2010 Tealbook Book B Tables and Charts
Monetary Policy Alternatives
Table 1: Overview of Alternatives for the June 23 FOMC Statement
April Statement | June Alternatives | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
A | B | C | ||
Economic Activity | ||||
Recent Developments |
has continued to strengthen |
has continued to strengthen gradually |
has continued to strengthen | |
Labor Market |
is beginning to improve; high unemployment; employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls |
is improving slowly; high unemployment; employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls |
is improving gradually; high unemployment; employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls |
has continued to improve |
Outlook | gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization; recovery likely to be moderate for a time |
gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization; near-term outlook has weakened somewhat |
gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization; recovery likely to be moderate for a time |
sustainable recovery under way; gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization |
Financial Conditions | ||||
Recent Developments |
bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth |
financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance; bank lending continues to contract |
financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance; bank lending has continued to contract in recent months |
financial market conditions have become somewhat less supportive of growth on balance |
Inflation | ||||
Recent Developments |
substantial slack is restraining cost pressures; stable inflation expectations |
Prices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months; underlying inflation has trended lower; substantial slack is restraining cost pressures; stable inflation expectations |
underlying inflation has trended lower; stable inflation expectations |
|
Outlook | likely to be subdued for some time |
likely to be quite subdued for some time, remaining below rates consistent with dual mandate |
likely to be subdued for some time |
subdued rates of inflation anticipated |
Federal Funds Rate Target | ||||
Intermeeting Period |
0 to ¼ percent | 0 to ¼ percent | ||
Forward Guidance |
economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for an extended period |
economic conditions will warrant exceptionally low levels for an extended period, until resource utilization and inflation clearly moving toward mandate- consistent levels |
economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for an extended period |
economic conditions are likely to warrant low levels for some time |
Reinvestment of SOMA Assets | ||||
Approach | allow agency debt and MBS to roll off but roll over maturing Treasuries (nothing in statement) |
roll over agency MBS as well as Treasuries; allow agency debt to roll off (not in statement) |
allow agency debt and MBS to roll off but roll over maturing Treasuries (nothing in statement) |
allow Treasuries as well as agency debt and MBS to roll off |
Balance Sheet Projections Summary
Alternative A | Baseline | Alternative C | |
---|---|---|---|
MBS Securities | |||
Total held June 2010 | $1,117 billion | $1,117 billion | $1,117 billion |
Total held Dec. 2012 | $1,076 billion | $853 billion | $853 billion |
Agency Debt Securities | |||
Total held June 2010 | $165 billion | $165 billion | $165 billion |
Total held Dec. 2012 | $77 billion | $77 billion | $77 billion |
Treasury Securities | |||
Total held June 2010 | $777 billion | $777 billion | $777 billion |
Total held Dec. 2012 | $777 billion | $777 billion | $513 billion |
Total Assets | |||
Peak month | June 2010 | June 2010 | June 2010 |
Peak amount | $2.34 trillion | $2.34 trillion | $2.34 trillion |
December 2020 | $1.86 trillion | $1.86 trillion | $1.86 trillion |
Reserve Balances | |||
Peak month | February 2010 | February 2010 | February 2010 |
Peak amount | $1.23 trillion | $1.23 trillion | $1.23 trillion |
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: End-of-Year Projections -- Baseline Scenario
May 31, 2010 | End-of-Year | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | ||
$ Billions | |||||||
Total assets | 2,340 | 2,202 | 1,846 | 1,386 | 1,497 | 1,661 | 1,856 |
Selected assets: | |||||||
Liquidity programs for financial firms | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Primary, secondary, and seasonal credit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Central bank liquidity swaps | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lending through other credit facilities | 44 | 44 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) | 44 | 44 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Support for specific institutions | 119 | 81 | 40 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Credit extended to AIG | 52 | 28 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, Maiden Lane II LLC, and Maiden Lane III LLC |
68 | 53 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Securities held outright | 2,057 | 1,960 | 1,707 | 1,294 | 1,422 | 1,593 | 1,791 |
U.S. Treasury securities | 777 | 777 | 777 | 777 | 1,254 | 1,593 | 1,791 |
Agency debt securities | 167 | 147 | 77 | 34 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Agency mortgage-backed securities | 1,114 | 1,035 | 853 | 484 | 158 | 0 | 0 |
Special drawing rights certificate account | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Net portfolio holdings of TALF LLC | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total other assets | 112 | 102 | 86 | 76 | 72 | 69 | 66 |
Total liabilities | 2,284 | 2,143 | 1,768 | 1,283 | 1,361 | 1,481 | 1,617 |
Selected liabilities: | |||||||
Federal Reserve notes in circulation | 902 | 918 | 1,008 | 1,137 | 1,252 | 1,373 | 1,509 |
Reverse repurchase agreements | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 |
Deposits with Federal Reserve Banks | 1,305 | 1,147 | 686 | 73 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
Reserve balances of depository institutions | 1,083 | 939 | 476 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
U.S. Treasury, general account | 20 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
U.S. Treasury, supplementary financing account | 200 | 200 | 200 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total capital | 56 | 59 | 78 | 103 | 136 | 180 | 239 |
Source. Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release and staff calculations.
Growth Rates for the Monetary Base
Date | Baseline | Alternative A | Alternative C |
---|---|---|---|
Percent, annual rate | |||
Monthly | |||
Jan-10 | -17.8 | -17.8 | -17.8 |
Feb-10 | 72.2 | 72.2 | 72.2 |
Mar-10 | -19.7 | -19.7 | -19.7 |
Apr-10 | -37.7 | -37.7 | -37.7 |
May-10 | -2.1 | -2.1 | -2.1 |
Jun-10 | -18.0 | -18.0 | -17.8 |
Jul-10 | -10.0 | -7.2 | -9.8 |
Aug-10 | 4.2 | 10.6 | -4.6 |
Sep-10 | -20.9 | -12.5 | -31.0 |
Oct-10 | -16.2 | -6.2 | -18.7 |
Nov-10 | 1.4 | 11.2 | -1.4 |
Dec-10 | -8.8 | 0.3 | -12.5 |
Quarterly | |||
Q1 2010 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
Q2 2010 | -11.8 | -11.8 | -11.8 |
Q3 2010 | -8.9 | -5.7 | -11.8 |
Q4 2010 | -10.2 | -1.2 | -15.2 |
Annual - Q4 to Q4 | |||
2009 | 41.5 | 41.5 | 41.5 |
2010 | -4.3 | -1.3 | -6.2 |
2011 | -10.8 | -4.5 | -14.7 |
2012 | -10.1 | -6.7 | -19.7 |
2013 | -20.0 | -18.3 | -13.0 |
Note. Not seasonally adjusted.
Growth Rates for M2
Tealbook Forecast * | ||
---|---|---|
Monthly Growth Rates | ||
Jan-10 | -8.2 | |
Feb-10 | 7.8 | |
Mar-10 | -4.1 | |
Apr-10 | -4.5 | |
May-10 | 11.3 | |
Jun-10 | 5.7 | |
Jul-10 | 3.0 | |
Aug-10 | 2.2 | |
Sep-10 | 2.1 | |
Oct-10 | 1.8 | |
Nov-10 | 1.9 | |
Dec-10 | 2.1 | |
Quarterly Growth Rates | ||
2010 Q1 | -0.2 | |
2010 Q2 | 1.6 | |
2010 Q3 | 4.2 | |
2010 Q4 | 2.0 | |
Annual Growth Rates | ||
2009 | 5.1 | |
2010 | 1.9 | |
2011 | 3.4 |
* This forecast is consistent with nominal GDP and interest rates in the Tealbook forecast. Actual data through May 2010; projections thereafter. Return to table
Last update: January 29, 2016