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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Accessible Version

Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on October 28-29, 2008.

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2008-11

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2008 through 2011. Actual values for years 2003 through 2007. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1.

Change in real GDP
Percent
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Actual 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 0.5 1.8 4.5 5.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 0.3 1.1 3.2 3.6
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 0.0 -0.2 2.3 2.8
Lower End of Range - - - - - -0.3 -1.0 1.5 2.0

Unemployment rate
Percent
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Actual 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.8 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 6.6 8.0 8.0 7.3
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 6.5 7.6 7.3 6.6
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 6.3 7.1 6.5 5.5
Lower End of Range - - - - - 6.3 6.6 5.5 4.9

PCE inflation
Percent
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Actual 1.9 3.1 3.3 1.9 3.5 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 3.6 2.2 1.9 1.8
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 3.1 2.0 1.8 1.7
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.8 1.3 1.4 1.4
Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.7 1.0 1.1 0.8

Core PCE inflation
Percent
  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Actual 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.8
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.7
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.3
Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.1 1.3 1.1 0.8


Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2008-11

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants
Percent range 2008 2009 2010 2011
October
projections		 June
projections		 October
projections		 June
projections		 October
projections		 June
projections		 October
projections
-1.0 - -0.9 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
-0.8 - -0.7 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
-0.6 - -0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-0.4 - -0.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
-0.2 - -0.1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
0.0 - 0.1 7 0 2 0 0 0 0
0.2 - 0.3 7 0 1 0 0 0 0
0.4 - 0.5 2 0 2 0 0 0 0
0.6 - 0.7 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0.8 - 0.9 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
1.0 - 1.1 0 3 3 0 0 0 0
1.2 - 1.3 0 4 0 0 0 0 0
1.4 - 1.5 0 4 1 0 2 0 0
1.6 - 1.7 0 3 0 0 0 0 0
1.8 - 1.9 0 1 2 1 1 0 0
2.0 - 2.1 0 0 0 4 0 1 1
2.2 - 2.3 0 0 0 3 1 0 0
2.4 - 2.5 0 0 0 2 4 3 1
2.6 - 2.7 0 0 0 3 1 4 1
2.8 - 2.9 0 0 0 2 0 4 2
3.0 - 3.1 0 0 0 2 4 3 2
3.2 - 3.3 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
3.4 - 3.5 0 0 0 0 1 1 4
3.6 - 3.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
3.8 - 3.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
4.0 - 4.1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
4.2 - 4.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.4 - 4.5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
4.6 - 4.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2008-11

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants
Percent range 2008 2009 2010 2011
October
projections		 June
projections		 October
projections		 June
projections		 October
projections		 June
projections		 October
projections
4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 7 2
5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 4 0 1 0
5.4 - 5.5 0 6 0 4 1 4 1
5.6 - 5.7 0 9 0 5 0 4 0
5.8 - 5.9 0 2 0 3 1 1 1
6.0 - 6.1 0 0 0 1 0 0 3
6.2 - 6.3 5 0 0 0 0 0 2
6.4 - 6.5 11 0 0 0 3 0 2
6.6 - 6.7 1 0 1 0 1 0 3
6.8 - 6.9 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
7.0 - 7.1 0 0 3 0 2 0 1
7.2 - 7.3 0 0 4 0 2 0 1
7.4 - 7.5 0 0 5 0 1 0 0
7.6 - 7.7 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
7.8 - 7.9 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
8.0 - 8.1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0

Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2008-11

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants
Percent range 2008 2009 2010 2011
October
projections		 June
projections		 October
projections		 June
projections		 October
projections		 June
projections		 October
projections
0.7 - 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0.9 - 1.0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
1.1 - 1.2 0 0 2 0 1 0 1
1.3 - 1.4 0 0 3 0 3 0 3
1.5 - 1.6 0 0 2 0 6 1 7
1.7 - 1.8 0 0 5 1 5 5 5
1.9 - 2.0 0 0 1 5 2 10 0
2.1 - 2.2 0 0 3 6 0 1 0
2.3 - 2.4 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
2.5 - 2.6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2.7 - 2.8 8 0 0 1 0 0 0
2.9 - 3.0 4 0 0 1 0 0 0
3.1 - 3.2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
3.3 - 3.4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
3.5 - 3.6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
3.7 - 3.8 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
3.9 - 4.0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0
4.1 - 4.2 0 7 0 0 0 0 0
4.3 - 4.4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
4.5 - 4.6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2008-11

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

Number of Participants
Percent range 2008 2009 2010 2011
October
projections		 June
projections		 October
projections		 June
projections		 October
projections		 June
projections		 October
projections
0.7 - 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
0.9 - 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.1 - 1.2 0 0 0 0 1 0 2
1.3 - 1.4 0 0 2 0 5 0 3
1.5 - 1.6 0 0 4 0 6 2 7
1.7 - 1.8 0 0 4 1 4 6 4
1.9 - 2.0 0 1 6 6 1 9 0
2.1 - 2.2 2 5 1 8 0 0 0
2.3 - 2.4 9 9 0 2 0 0 0
2.5 - 2.6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0

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Last update: November 19, 2008