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Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Accessible Version

Table data for charts presented with Summary of Economic Projections given within the FOMC Minutes on January 26-27, 2010.

Figure 1. Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2010 through 2012 and over the longer run. Actual values for years 2005 through 2009. The data for the actual values of the variables are annual. Definitions of variables are in the notes to table 1. The data for the change in real GDP, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation shown for 2009 incorporate the advance estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2009, which the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on January 29, 2010; this information was not available to FOMC meeting participants at the time of their meeting.

                    Change in real GDP
Percent
  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run
Actual 2.7 2.4 2.5 -1.9 0.0 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 4.0 4.7 5.0 3.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 3.5 4.5 4.5 2.8
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.5
Lower End of Range - - - - - 2.3 2.7 3.0 2.4


                    Unemployment rate
Percent
  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run
Actual 5.0 4.5 4.8 6.9 10.0 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 10.0 8.8 7.6 6.3
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 9.7 8.5 7.5 5.2
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 9.5 8.2 6.6 5.0
Lower End of Range - - - - - 8.6 7.2 6.1 4.9


                    PCE inflation
Percent
  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run
Actual 3.3 1.9 3.6 1.7 1.3 - - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.7
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.5


                    Core PCE inflation
Percent
  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Actual 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.5 - - -
Upper End of Range - - - - - 2.0 2.4 2.0
Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.7 1.9 1.9
Lower End of Central Tendency - - - - - 1.1 1.0 1.2
Lower End of Range - - - - - 1.0 0.9 0.8



Figure 2.A. Distribution of participants' projections for the change in real GDP, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

                    Number of Participants
Percent range 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
2.0 - 2.1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.2 - 2.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.4 - 2.5 2 3 0 1 0 0 8 8
2.6 - 2.7 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 3
2.8 - 2.9 1 1 0 0 0 1 5 5
3.0 - 3.1 3 4 1 1 2 1 1 1
3.2 - 3.3 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
3.4 - 3.5 7 4 1 1 3 3 0 0
3.6 - 3.7 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0
3.8 - 3.9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
4.0 - 4.1 1 1 2 3 3 2 0 0
4.2 - 4.3 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0
4.4 - 4.5 0 0 6 7 5 4 0 0
4.6 - 4.7 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0
4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 0
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0


Figure 2.B. Distribution of participants' projections for the unemployment rate, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

                    Number of Participants
Percent range 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
4.8 - 4.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
5.0 - 5.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 11
5.2 - 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 4
5.4 - 5.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.6 - 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.8 - 5.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6.0 - 6.1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
6.2 - 6.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
6.4 - 6.5 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0
6.6 - 6.7 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
6.8 - 6.9 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0
7.0 - 7.1 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0
7.2 - 7.3 0 0 1 1 2 3 0 0
7.4 - 7.5 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0
7.6 - 7.7 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0
7.8 - 7.9 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
8.0 - 8.1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
8.2 - 8.3 0 0 6 6 0 0 0 0
8.4 - 8.5 0 0 5 3 0 0 0 0
8.6 - 8.7 1 1 2 5 0 0 0 0
8.8 - 8.9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
9.0 - 9.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9.2 - 9.3 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
9.4 - 9.5 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
9.6 - 9.7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
9.8 - 9.9 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
10.0 - 10.1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10.2 - 10.3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0


Figure 2.C. Distribution of participants' projections for PCE inflation, 2010-12 and over the longer run

Histograms, four panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

                    Number of Participants
Percent range 2010 2011 2012 Longer Run
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
0.1 - 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
0.3 - 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.5 - 0.6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
0.7 - 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
0.9 - 1.0 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 0
1.1 - 1.2 2 3 4 1 0 1 0 0
1.3 - 1.4 7 7 2 2 2 2 0 0
1.5 - 1.6 2 4 3 4 6 5 3 3
1.7 - 1.8 4 1 3 1 2 1 2 2
1.9 - 2.0 2 2 3 4 5 4 12 12
2.1 - 2.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.3 - 2.4 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0


Figure 2.D. Distribution of participants' projections for core PCE inflation, 2010-12

Histograms, three panels. Definitions of variables are in the general note to table 1.

                    Number of Participants
Percent range 2010 2011 2012
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
January
projections
November
projections
0.1 - 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 1
0.3 - 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0
0.5 - 0.6 0 0 0 1 0 0
0.7 - 0.8 0 0 0 0 1 0
0.9 - 1.0 1 4 5 6 1 3
1.1 - 1.2 9 7 2 1 5 2
1.3 - 1.4 3 2 3 1 1 1
1.5 - 1.6 0 2 3 5 3 4
1.7 - 1.8 2 0 0 0 2 3
1.9 - 2.0 2 2 3 2 4 2
2.1 - 2.2 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.3 - 2.4 0 0 1 1 0 1


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Last update: February 17, 2010