Keywords: Motor vehicles, scrappage
Abstract: This paper offers a new framework for analyzing aggregate
sales of new motor vehicles that incorporates separate models for the
change in the vehicle stock and for the rate of vehicle scrappage.
Because this approach requires only a minimal set of assumptions about
demographic trends, the state of the economy, consumer "preferences,"
new vehicle prices and repair costs, and vehicle retirements, it is
shown to be especially useful as a macroeconomic forecasting tool. In
addition, a new historical annual time series estimate of motor
vehicle stocks in the United States is presented.
Full paper (78 KB PDF)
| Full paper (264 KB Postscript)
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