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Finance and Economics Discussion Series
The Finance and Economics Discussion Series logo links to FEDS home page Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, and Sales
Alan Greenspan and Darrel Cohen

Abstract: This paper offers a new framework for analyzing aggregate sales of new motor vehicles that incorporates separate models for the change in the vehicle stock and for the rate of vehicle scrappage. Because this approach requires only a minimal set of assumptions about demographic trends, the state of the economy, consumer "preferences," new vehicle prices and repair costs, and vehicle retirements, it is shown to be especially useful as a macroeconomic forecasting tool. In addition, a new historical annual time series estimate of motor vehicle stocks in the United States is presented.

Keywords: Motor vehicles, scrappage

Full paper (78 KB PDF) | Full paper (264 KB Postscript)

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Last update: July 16, 1997