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Abstract: Within the past two years, important advances have been made in
modeling credit risk at the portfolio level. Practitioners and policy
makers have invested in implementing and exploring a variety of new
models individually. Less progress has been made, however, with
comparative analyses. Direct comparison often is not straightforward,
because the different models may be presented within rather different
mathematical frameworks.
This paper offers a comparative anatomy of two especially influential
benchmarks for credit risk models, J.P. Morgan's CreditMetrics and
Credit Suisse Financial Product's CreditRisk+. We show that, despite
differences on the surface, the underlying mathematical structures are
similar. The structural parallels provide intuition for the
relationship between the two models and allow us to describe quite
precisely where the models differ in functional form, distributional
assumptions, and reliance on approximation formulae. We then design
simulation exercises which evaluate the effect of each of these
differences individually.
Keywords: Credit risk models
Full paper (624 KB PDF)
| Full paper (333 KB Postscript)
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Last update: January 21, 1999
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