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Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Finance and Economics Discussion Series logo links to FEDS home page Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts
Ravi Bansal and Hao Zhou

Abstract: We develop a term structure model where the short interest rate and the market price of risks are subject to discrete regime shifts. Empirical evidence from Efficient Method of Moments estimation provides considerable support for the regime shifts model. Standard models, which include affine specifications with up to three factors, are sharply rejected in the data. Our diagnostics show that only the regime shifts model can account for the well documented violations of the expectations hypothesis, the observed conditional volatility, and the conditional correlation across yields. We find that regimes are intimately related to business cycles.

Keywords: Regime switching, term structure of interest rate, reprojection, efficient method of moments

Full paper (730 KB PDF)

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Last update: November 30, 2001