Finance and Economics Discussion Series
		2005 FEDS papers FEDS ordering information

2005-70 (December )
Expectations Formation and the Effectiveness of Strategies for Limiting the Consequences of the Zero Bound on Interest Rates
David L. Reifschneider and John M. Roberts
Abstract | Full paper (280 KB PDF)

2005-69 (December )
Using Structural Shocks to Identify Models of Investment
John M. Roberts
Abstract | Full paper (366 KB PDF)

2005-68 (December)
Using Subjective Expectations to Forecast Longevity: Do Survey Respondents Know Something We Don't Know?
Maria G. Perozek
Abstract | Full paper (262 KB PDF)

2005-67 (December)
Escaping the Samaritan's Dilemma: Implications of a Dynamic Model of Altruistic Intergenerational Transfers
Maria Perozek
Abstract | Full paper (274 KB PDF)

2005-66 (December)
Modelling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research
Jeremy Rudd and Karl Whelan
Abstract | Full paper (399 KB PDF)

2005-65 (December)
Retail Deposit Fees and Multimarket Banking
Timothy H. Hannan
Abstract | Full paper (124 KB PDF)

2005-64 (December)
Post Brown vs. the Board of Education: The Effects of the End of Court-Ordered Desegregation
Byron F. Lutz
Abstract | Full paper (383 KB PDF)

2005-63 (December)
Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms
Benjamin Yibin Zhang, Hao Zhou, and Haibin Zhu
Abstract | Full paper (333 KB PDF)

2005-62 (December )
An Inflation Goal with Multiple Reference Measures
William Whitesell
Abstract | Full paper (259 KB PDF)

2005-61 (December)
How Did the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut Affect Stock Prices?
Gene Amromin, Paul Harrison, and Steven Sharpe
Abstract | Full paper (206 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
This is a revised version of this paper; previous paper was dated October 2005

2005-60 (December)
The Sustainability of Health Spending Growth
Glenn Follette and Louise Sheiner
Abstract | Full paper (156 KB PDF)

2005-59 (December )
A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Economic Determinants of the Credit Spread Term Structure
Liuren Wu and Frank Xiaoling Zhang
Abstract | Full paper (474 KB PDF)

2005-58 (December)
Robustifying Learnability
Robert J. Tetlow and Peter von zur Muehlen
Abstract | Full paper (590 KB PDF)

2005-57 (December)
How Did the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut Affect Stock Prices and Corporate Payout Policy?
Gene Amromin, Paul Harrison, Nellie Liang, and Steve Sharpe
Abstract | Full paper (166 KB PDF)

2005-56 (November)
Competition and Price Discrimination in the Market for Mailing Lists
Ron Borzekowski, Raphael Thomadsen, and Charles Taragin
Abstract | Full paper (282 KB PDF)

2005-55 (November)
Alternative Central Bank Credit Policies for Liquidity Provision in a Model of Payments
David C. Mills, Jr.
Abstract | Full paper (209 KB PDF)

2005-54 (November)
Can Financial Innovation Help to Explain the Reduced Volatility of Economic Activity?
Karen E. Dynan, Douglas W. Elmendorf, and Daniel E. Sichel
Abstract | Full paper (425 KB PDF)

2005-53 (November)
Jump-Diffusion Processes and Affine Term Structure Models: Additional Closed-Form Approximate Solutions, Distributional Assumptions for Jumps, and Parameter Estimates
J. Benson Durham
Abstract | Full paper (265 KB PDF)

2005-52 (November)
Solving Stochastic Money-in-the-Utility-Function Models
Travis D. Nesmith
Abstract | Full paper (311 KB PDF)

2005-51 (November)
Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Abstract | Full paper (168 KB PDF)

2005-50 (November)
Measuring Counterparty Credit Exposure to a Margined Counterparty
Michael S. Gibson
Abstract | Full paper (587 KB PDF)

2005-49 (October )
Job Creation and Housing Construction: Constraints on Metropolitan Area Employment Growth
Raven E. Saks
Abstract | Full paper (366 KB PDF)

2005-48 (October)
Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts
Don H. Kim and Athanasios Orphanides
Abstract | Full paper (410 KB PDF)

2005-47 (October)
Stock Market Volatility and the Great Moderation
Sean D. Campbell
Abstract | Full paper (547 KB PDF)

2005-46 (October)
ATM Surcharge Bans and Bank Market Structure: The Case of Iowa and its Neighbors
Timothy H. Hannan
Abstract | Full paper (189 KB PDF)

2005-45 (October )
The Effects of Welfare Reform and Related Policies on Single Mothers' Welfare Use and Employment
Adam Looney
Abstract | Full paper (429 KB PDF)

2005-44 (October)
The Effect of Anticipated Tax Changes on Intertemporal Labor Supply and the Realization of Taxable Income
Adam Looney and Monica Singhal
Abstract | Full paper (498 KB PDF)

2005-43 (October)
The Effects of Mortgage Prepayments on M2
Yueh-Yun C. O'Brien
Abstract | Full paper (224 KB PDF)

2005-42 (October)
Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases
Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, and David Small
Abstract | Full paper (421 KB PDF)

2005-41 (September)
Estimates of Home Mortgage Originations, Repayments, and Debt on One-to-Four-Family Residences
Alan Greenspan and James Kennedy
Abstract | Full paper (729 KB PDF) | Data - Excel file (63 KB XLS) | Data - Screen reader

2005-40 (September)
Risk, Uncertainty, and Asset Prices
Geert Bekaert, Eric Engstrom, and Yuhang Xing
Abstract | Full paper (473 KB PDF)

2005-39 (September)
Do Nonfinancial Firms Use Interest Rate Derivatives to Hedge?
Daniel Covitz and Steven A. Sharpe
Abstract | Full paper (195 KB PDF)

2005-38 (September)
How Biased are Measures of Cyclical Movements in Productivity and Hours?
Stephanie Aaronson and Andrew Figura
Abstract | Full paper (91 KB PDF)

2005-37 (September)
A Computationally Efficient Characterization of Pure Strategy Nash Equilibria in Large Entry Games
Andrew Cohen
Abstract | Full paper (76 KB PDF)

2005-36 (September)
Large Investors: Implications for Equilibrium Asset, Returns, Shock Absorption, and Liquidity
Matthew Pritsker
Abstract | Full paper (1135 KB PDF)

2005-35 (August)
Liquidity, Default, Taxes and Yields on Municipal Bonds
Junbo Wang, Chunchi Wu, and Frank Zhang
Abstract | Full paper (222 KB PDF)

2005-34 (August)
Optimal Policy Projections
Lars E.O. Svensson and Robert J. Tetlow
Abstract | Full paper (352 KB PDF)

2005-33 (August)
An Arbitrage-Free Three-Factor Term Structure Model and the Recent Behavior of Long-Term Yields and Distant-Horizon Forward Rates
Don H. Kim and Jonathan H. Wright
Abstract | Full paper (237 KB PDF) | Data - Excel file (3325 KB XLS) | Data - Screen reader

2005-32 (August)
The Household Spending Response to the 2003 Tax Cut: Evidence from Survey Data
Julia Lynn Coronado, Joseph P. Lupton, and Louise M. Sheiner
Abstract | Full paper (112 KB PDF)

2005-31 (August)
Has Output Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy
Peter Tulip
Abstract | Full paper (195 KB PDF)

2005-30 (August)
Why and When do Spot Prices of Crude Oil Revert to Futures Price Levels?
Mark W. French
Abstract | Full paper (387 KB PDF)

2005-29 (July)
Using Federal Funds Futures Contracts for Monetary Policy Analysis
Refet S. Gurkaynak
Abstract | Full paper (255 KB PDF)

2005-28 (May)
Gestation Lags and the Relationship Between Investment and Q in Regressions
Jonathan N. Millar
Abstract | Full paper (397 KB PDF)

2005-27 (May)
External Habit and the Cyclicality of Expected Stock Returns
Thomas D. Tallarini, Jr. and Harold H. Zhang
Abstract | Full paper (625 KB PDF)

2005-26 (May)
From the Horse's Mouth: Gauging Conditional Expected Stock Returns from Investor Surveys
Gene Amromin and Steven A. Sharpe
Abstract | Full paper (1031 KB PDF)

2005-25 (May)
Prices, Production, and Inventories over the Automotive Model Year
Adam Copeland, Wendy Dunn, and George Hall
Abstract | Full paper (263 KB PDF)

2005-24 (May)
Gestation Lags for Capital, Cash Flows, and Tobins's Q
Jonathan N. Millar
Abstract | Full paper (656 KB PDF)

2005-23 (May)
Raising the Bar for Models of Turnover
Erwan Quintin and John J. Stevens
Abstract | Full paper (247 KB PDF)

2005-22 (May)
Growing Old Together: Firm Survival and Employee Turnover
Erwan Quintin and John J. Stevens
Abstract | Full paper (294 KB PDF)

2005-21 (April)
A Review of Backtesting and Backtesting Procedures
Sean D. Campbell
Abstract | Full paper (175 KB PDF)

2005-20 (April)
Branch Banking, Bank Competition, and Financial Stability
Mark Carlson and Kris James Mitchener
Abstract | Full paper (453 KB PDF)

2005-19 (April)
Temporary Partial Expensing in a General-Equilibrium Model
Rochelle M. Edge and Jeremy B. Rudd
Abstract | Full paper (466 KB PDF)

2005-18 (April)
Yesterday's Bad Times are Today's Good Old Times: Retail Price Changes in the 1890s were Smaller, Less Frequent, and More Permanent
Alan Kackmeister
Abstract | Full paper (219 KB PDF)

2005-17 (April)
Are Firms or Workers Behind the Shift Away from DB Pension Plan?
Stephanie Aaronson and Julia Coronado
Abstract | Full paper (478 KB PDF)

2005-16 (April)
The Effects of Local Banking Market Structure on the Banking-Lending Channel of Monetary Policy
Robert M. Adams and Dean F. Amel
Abstract | Full paper (159 KB PDF)

2005-15 (April)
The Effects of Competition from Large, Multimarket Firms on the Performance of Small, Single-Market Firms: Evidence from the Banking Industry
Allen N. Berger, Astrid A. Dick, Lawrence G. Goldberg, and Lawrence J. White
Abstract | Full paper (250 KB PDF)

2005-14 (April)
Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry
Valerie A. Ramey and Daniel J. Vine
Abstract | Full paper (827 KB PDF)

2005-13 (March)
Housing, House Prices, and the Equity Premium Puzzle
Morris A. Davis and Robert F. Martin
Abstract | Full paper (485 KB PDF)

2005-12 (March)
A Nonlinear Look at Trend MFP Growth and the Business Cycle: Result from a Hybrid Kalman/Markov Switching Model
Mark W. French
Abstract | Full paper (309 KB PDF)

2005-11 (March)
Job-Hopping in Silicon Valley: Some Evidence Concerning the Micro-Foundations of a High Technology Cluster
Bruce Fallick, Charles A. Fleischman, and James B. Rebitzer
Abstract | Full paper (245 KB PDF)

2005-10 (February)
An Empirical Analysis of Bond Recovery Rates: Exploring a Structural View of Default
Daniel Covitz and Song Han
Abstract | Full paper (266 KB PDF)

2005-9 (January)
Density Selection and Combination Under Model Ambiguity: An Application to Stock Returns
Stefania D'Amico
Abstract | Full paper (373 KB PDF)

2005-8 (January)
Does Trading Frequency Affect Subordinated Debt Spreads?
Christopher Bianchi, Diana Hancock, and Laura Kawano
Abstract | Full paper (1582 KB PDF)

2005-7 (January)
GSEs, Mortgage Rates, and Secondary Market Activities
Andreas Lehnert, Wayne Passmore, and Shane M. Sherlund
Abstract | Full paper (175 KB PDF)

2005-6 (January)
The Effect of Housing Government-Sponsored Enterprises on Mortgage Rates
Wayne Passmore, Shane M. Sherlund, and Gillian Burgess
Abstract | Full paper (1554 KB PDF)

2005-5 (January)
The GSE Implicit Subsidy and the Value of Government Ambiguity
Wayne Passmore
Abstract | Full paper (121 KB PDF)
This is a revised version of FEDS 2003-64

2005-4 (January)
Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock
Refet S. Gurkaynak
Abstract | Full paper (271 KB PDF)

2005-3 (January)
Who Competes with Whom? The Case of Depository Institutions
Robert M. Adams, Kenneth P. Brevoort, and Elizabeth K. Kiser
Abstract | Full paper (236 KB PDF)

2005-2 (January)
The Reform of October 1979: How It Happened and Why
David E. Lindsey, Athanasios Orphanides, and Robert H. Rasche
Abstract | Full paper (531 KB PDF)

2005-1 (January)
Precautionary Savings Motives and Tax Efficiency of Household Portfolios: An Empirical Analysis
Gene Amromin
Abstract | Full paper (343 KB PDF)