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Finance and Economics Discussion Series logo links to FEDS home page Combining Forecasts From Nested Models
Todd E. Clark and Michael W. McCracken

Abstract: Motivated by the common finding that linear autoregressive models forecast better than models that incorporate additional information, this paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of combining forecasts from nested models. In our analytics, the unrestricted model is true, but as the sample size grows, the data generating process converges to the restricted model. This approach captures the practical reality that the predictive content of variables of interest is often low. We derive MSE-minimizing weights for combining the restricted and unrestricted forecasts. Monte Carlo and empirical analyses verify the practical effectiveness of our combination approach.

Keywords: Forecast combination, predictability, forecast evaluation

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Last update: September 18, 2007