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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: 2007-57 Screen Reader version


Financial Market Perceptions of Recession Risk
(Figure Data)

Thomas B. King, Andrew T. Levin, and Roberto Perli



Figure 1. Recession probabilities from univariate models with good fit
dateaa10 forecastsp2y forecast
Feb-880.0000347900.000000439
Mar-880.0026086500.000000145
Apr-880.0010825890.000000117
May-880.0013890280.000000552
Jun-880.0001935200.000032207
Jul-880.0003116800.000067082
Aug-880.0000355060.000766488
Sep-880.0000289110.003613416
Oct-880.0000069990.006210500
Nov-880.0008883880.029038519
Dec-880.0063174110.201504864
Jan-890.0007373460.313094103
Feb-890.0208117890.465522749
Mar-890.0103614890.725120340
Apr-890.0001475570.636297882
May-890.0000096280.417354641
Jun-890.0005591260.338868489
Jul-890.0005894300.076919786
Aug-890.1263668130.254662059
Sep-890.3540849240.248095778
Oct-890.0804596230.159816214
Nov-890.4099929410.127131599
Dec-890.7572368690.156624188
Jan-900.7614424010.107111302
Feb-900.2612255230.102855993
Mar-900.2747511540.190958541
Apr-900.3568743530.141317501
May-900.0007702720.090463997
Jun-900.0031447270.079017057
Jul-900.0003927250.026899482
Aug-900.0142856420.000890441
Sep-900.0002874780.000160700
Oct-900.0104024800.000167109
Nov-900.0105373880.000295580
Dec-900.2624854720.000462463
Jan-910.0172737340.000011544
Feb-910.0333349340.000002922
Mar-910.0001337430.000002004
Apr-910.0006052040.000000507
May-910.0002474360.000000019
Jun-910.0000405790.000000062
Jul-910.0000036610.000000023
Aug-910.0000049480.000000000
Sep-910.0000012990.000000000
Oct-910.0000269810.000000000
Nov-910.0000145330.000000000
Dec-910.0000000490.000000000
Jan-920.0061212650.000000000
Feb-920.0000005940.000000000
Mar-920.0000121680.000000000
Apr-920.0001142650.000000000
May-920.0000001570.000000000
Jun-920.0000000100.000000000
Jul-920.0000000800.000000000
Aug-920.0000359370.000000000
Sep-920.0000054260.000000000
Oct-920.0002768920.000000000
Nov-920.0000371170.000000000
Dec-920.0000018050.000000000
Jan-930.0000000840.000000000
Feb-930.0000015420.000000000
Mar-930.0003677840.000000000
Apr-930.0002042710.000000000
May-930.0009448760.000000000
Jun-930.0000094760.000000000
Jul-930.0004427790.000000000
Aug-930.0000001610.000000000
Sep-930.0010549920.000000000
Oct-930.0027643700.000000000
Nov-930.0000869570.000000000
Dec-930.0000168710.000000000
Jan-940.0000000500.000000000
Feb-940.0002157730.000000000
Mar-940.0086715820.000000000
Apr-940.0000130040.000000002
May-940.0000024150.000000152
Jun-940.0045907050.000000254
Jul-940.0000000010.000000225
Aug-940.0000001920.000001803
Sep-940.0005830450.000000953
Oct-940.0000734560.000005989
Nov-940.0000058760.000178270
Dec-940.0000790120.064707669
Jan-950.0000000230.034971725
Feb-950.0000000010.017411864
Mar-950.0000064120.006809601
Apr-950.0000026040.003605602
May-950.0000000000.006498937
Jun-950.0000357700.006497065
Jul-950.0009593140.004369283
Aug-950.0000000010.003145625
Sep-950.0000020010.008334356
Oct-950.0000069490.020987441
Nov-950.0000000530.009257653
Dec-950.0000001790.013790186
Jan-960.0000008770.002853011
Feb-960.0076893310.000128715
Mar-960.0000102810.000760894
Apr-960.0000559810.001181004
May-960.0000614300.000735567
Jun-960.0000000020.001666525
Jul-960.0000012850.003151035
Aug-960.0437870770.002504346
Sep-960.0000000440.001858086
Oct-960.0000000040.001501501
Nov-960.0000000280.004819802
Dec-960.0004346190.005037612
Jan-970.0000011970.003145719
Feb-970.0003636680.003860660
Mar-970.0031673800.004868472
Apr-970.0000000230.007723116
May-970.0000013630.008622597
Jun-970.0000173450.010469568
Jul-970.0000000040.019179655
Aug-970.0000220910.012874952
Sep-970.0000002720.016276851
Oct-970.0000002650.029520559
Nov-970.0001155100.078876327
Dec-970.0000807690.134204715
Jan-980.0000012370.065090328
Feb-980.0000007910.062758376
Mar-980.0000001900.092017723
Apr-980.0000004300.104794680
May-980.0000000070.107806858
Jun-980.0000000960.175872899
Jul-980.0000106900.176682903
Aug-980.0014773510.153541126
Sep-980.0000166860.088822554
Oct-980.5781256070.007187924
Nov-980.0001903750.023664993
Dec-980.0043080970.040521698
Jan-990.0001011120.029513686
Feb-990.0529279830.022858360
Mar-990.0004000840.011591480
Apr-990.0059412930.010606085
May-990.0101402550.005695868
Jun-990.0001658710.006471190
Jul-990.0807526750.006400001
Aug-990.0278309310.004581787
Sep-990.0022461170.003198714
Oct-990.0000464490.003066268
Nov-990.0072620440.015519222
Dec-990.0080750080.017340563
Jan-000.0028777780.029454894
Feb-000.0179758270.192161357
Mar-000.0230356070.340049695
Apr-000.9572746430.480770427
May-000.4234247160.511233471
Jun-000.5215855310.583182319
Jul-000.8060191720.513499057
Aug-000.7368941670.606212955
Sep-000.5703783900.354223788
Oct-000.8606303670.324692943
Nov-000.4101028410.350148678
Dec-000.6148802040.267772747
Jan-010.3032579280.008420944
Feb-010.0620564920.003428115
Mar-010.5259398450.000535143
Apr-010.6473896380.000003441
May-010.1508771090.000000230
Jun-010.4472768370.000000069
Jul-010.0102965960.000000056
Aug-010.0395711290.000000010
Sep-010.2109779860.000000000
Oct-010.0301127240.000000000
Nov-010.3264431970.000000000
Dec-010.0068118820.000000000
Jan-020.0139893640.000000000
Feb-020.0051839460.000000000
Mar-020.0328740160.000000000
Apr-020.0124266460.000000000
May-020.0012987690.000000000
Jun-020.0603430030.000000000
Jul-020.1850138060.000000000
Aug-020.2996027240.000000000
Sep-020.2520349210.000000000
Oct-020.5584633360.000000000
Nov-020.5581108630.000000000
Dec-020.0002028320.000000000
Jan-030.0036656930.000000000
Feb-030.0000679240.000000000
Mar-030.0009351130.000000000
Apr-030.0000045020.000000000
May-030.0000005460.000000000
Jun-030.0083555440.000000000
Jul-030.5778185300.000000000
Aug-030.0000372590.000000000
Sep-030.0000000000.000000000
Oct-030.0000187760.000000000
Nov-030.0000164410.000000000
Dec-030.0000086350.000000000
Jan-040.0000127240.000000000
Feb-040.0000007670.000000000
Mar-040.0000391130.000000000
Apr-040.0008542890.000000000
May-040.0000064310.000000000
Jun-040.0000011220.000000000
Jul-040.0000317600.000000000
Aug-040.0000000190.000000000
Sep-040.0000033620.000000000
Oct-040.0000003400.000000000
Nov-040.0001985380.000000004
Dec-040.0000048470.000000071
Jan-050.0000001260.000004769
Feb-050.0005540530.000157468
Mar-050.0000071670.000190618
Apr-050.0000001120.000643221
May-050.0000003750.004635851
Jun-050.0000041960.019318984
Jul-050.0003919850.036318961
Aug-050.0000000060.064259702
Sep-050.0017208320.045777706
Oct-050.0008148520.075759019
Nov-050.0000192920.088929277
Dec-050.0000198860.146001390
Jan-060.0048500230.196487537
Feb-060.0001106960.326356794
Mar-060.0067987860.232638912
Apr-060.0027995750.136272974
May-060.0010017230.108368627
Jun-060.0093335060.248431276
Jul-060.0009393510.288760610
Aug-060.0001436080.271588877
Sep-060.0004903000.271655472
Oct-060.0001204550.304494687
Nov-060.0000464940.396506870
Dec-060.0199839220.346079778
Jan-070.0028686660.357824732
Feb-070.0000106810.356582561
Mar-070.0374427860.251680045
Return to Text


Figure 2. Recession probabilities from univariate models with poor fit
dateSILVERL2D forecastHYLD10 forecast
Feb-880.0755296170.027449109
Mar-880.0694515640.031777308
Apr-880.0732928160.024515167
May-880.0726341230.023094896
Jun-880.0702062700.022484434
Jul-880.0760858610.021510668
Aug-880.0766554590.022318330
Sep-880.0727763120.034252166
Oct-880.0711273660.045472300
Nov-880.0722077550.049177012
Dec-880.0746169100.047293623
Jan-890.0727005420.042522597
Feb-890.0729077000.044487961
Mar-890.0714264760.042584243
Apr-890.0750804610.053960527
May-890.0748865810.056310372
Jun-890.0714324240.082875859
Jul-890.0719749340.110122800
Aug-890.0729552130.086145640
Sep-890.0731131010.102064232
Oct-890.0724236970.144705473
Nov-890.0699118650.230229827
Dec-890.0756463490.259217334
Jan-900.0768891010.151975092
Feb-900.0696863920.178248133
Mar-900.0755861320.117018703
Apr-900.0711282650.120816473
May-900.0727094820.011012187
Jun-900.0748113010.055093142
Jul-900.0719338800.022272015
Aug-900.0711803300.039103424
Sep-900.0766216030.069036966
Oct-900.0756075530.115345506
Nov-900.0709807990.099514426
Dec-900.0717088900.099411346
Jan-910.0721860470.086181998
Feb-910.0768336380.026149082
Mar-910.0664834450.011858245
Apr-910.0753807680.010742005
May-910.0726045750.007666879
Jun-910.0697878720.006111404
Jul-910.0779313860.004581417
Aug-910.0774666690.005507730
Sep-910.0672927510.004780645
Oct-910.0731927070.004121361
Nov-910.0745346740.010136484
Dec-910.0741522410.014857956
Jan-920.0692634960.018130259
Feb-920.0749528500.009372959
Mar-920.0738440100.014402479
Apr-920.0733147490.013976650
May-920.0720139520.015821281
Jun-920.0734633680.015986887
Jul-920.0741670260.016102905
Aug-920.0737577410.027391316
Sep-920.0717044350.027339962
Oct-920.0727213030.034020319
Nov-920.0724200790.024623404
Dec-920.0739810860.025931629
Jan-930.0729935520.021166265
Feb-930.0727847360.021313466
Mar-930.0728886840.023668844
Apr-930.0686668330.024367756
May-930.0714148720.018754069
Jun-930.0800887320.015334530
Jul-930.0655341730.017158616
Aug-930.0825160840.016275360
Sep-930.0784697950.022648912
Oct-930.0648110350.022450229
Nov-930.0720939320.019113156
Dec-930.0706484790.016215383
Jan-940.0765900290.013143640
Feb-940.0733923240.013248791
Mar-940.0722466500.017397514
Apr-940.0761970790.013729435
May-940.0707361130.013659505
Jun-940.0748540620.016127399
Jul-940.0733230260.012121619
Aug-940.0728306440.012135404
Sep-940.0693024040.011535881
Oct-940.0769593690.009023010
Nov-940.0749682490.010532852
Dec-940.0746103010.012145655
Jan-950.0689446440.010825645
Feb-950.0736234180.009388244
Mar-950.0728349540.012248559
Apr-950.0644916620.010416979
May-950.0821216950.009995410
Jun-950.0749040390.015622359
Jul-950.0730338860.013035063
Aug-950.0690147330.011299916
Sep-950.0750718590.012799871
Oct-950.0741310040.013721000
Nov-950.0728404620.013966069
Dec-950.0737407610.014606760
Jan-960.0688695660.012992540
Feb-960.0746802480.013894758
Mar-960.0755558240.009995830
Apr-960.0731858620.009174934
May-960.0722400850.009409268
Jun-960.0747471960.007667032
Jul-960.0717896010.008722243
Aug-960.0714590000.010586466
Sep-960.0750426300.005740130
Oct-960.0727279490.006873847
Nov-960.0731410180.007452563
Dec-960.0720967560.008135464
Jan-970.0734006480.005574313
Feb-970.0693347670.006013726
Mar-970.0754444260.006074067
Apr-970.0787976720.004588762
May-970.0684828270.004550599
Jun-970.0732672970.005359344
Jul-970.0773479990.005205878
Aug-970.0671437500.006069427
Sep-970.0723235810.005556334
Oct-970.0726031990.006624601
Nov-970.0752742890.007499595
Dec-970.0667979610.007868319
Jan-980.0802877640.011497965
Feb-980.0662132440.011353842
Mar-980.0857762450.010168099
Apr-980.0681804640.012003856
May-980.0809395830.011725550
Jun-980.0687267530.018832383
Jul-980.0690134760.019668386
Aug-980.0779737700.063521616
Sep-980.0711241410.093661894
Oct-980.0723058540.174189469
Nov-980.0726448260.068298075
Dec-980.0738410750.094533407
Jan-990.0695341730.074645899
Feb-990.0720166030.076746150
Mar-990.0807108860.046723087
Apr-990.0704272910.046104292
May-990.0703311500.049872483
Jun-990.0771050410.041613852
Jul-990.0696544460.051402542
Aug-990.0736370980.045399727
Sep-990.0740188260.050881395
Oct-990.0714490640.048057798
Nov-990.0765055720.046289511
Dec-990.0706924110.036560497
Jan-000.0734009450.037523385
Feb-000.0727975340.054783612
Mar-000.0747821900.110819686
Apr-000.0716330190.133056623
May-000.0736393560.131299977
Jun-000.0722405470.147907925
Jul-000.0734821820.176053914
Aug-000.0735519860.160655913
Sep-000.0721489970.200033756
Oct-000.0738025310.357563531
Nov-000.0739354470.605373785
Dec-000.0718663860.585938216
Jan-010.0722031720.273205788
Feb-010.0749861270.214481177
Mar-010.0732446170.341520490
Apr-010.0715026000.306294979
May-010.0721462240.264265844
Jun-010.0746755010.295073721
Jul-010.0735060890.227260117
Aug-010.0722767070.211141618
Sep-010.0703386690.576592542
Oct-010.0751055080.283684928
Nov-010.0765200320.166954593
Dec-010.0667248320.139966290
Jan-020.0750351820.121343004
Feb-020.0750576350.142686813
Mar-020.0711842570.081057775
Apr-020.0738419420.063416919
May-020.0718552420.108955470
Jun-020.0727285780.334953521
Jul-020.0747826420.367343768
Aug-020.0775118730.383780401
Sep-020.0686147560.582136005
Oct-020.0752270540.585886548
Nov-020.0699869770.358474485
Dec-020.0728896580.288301346
Jan-030.0724852900.212847391
Feb-030.0772343780.213966423
Mar-030.0723279250.163713632
Apr-030.0717647540.068757671
May-030.0705520140.107220028
Jun-030.0777784370.091614208
Jul-030.0677589570.074584189
Aug-030.0746094630.039330992
Sep-030.0730579530.031090906
Oct-030.0766273770.025025400
Nov-030.0692498700.021284800
Dec-030.0708104900.015883754
Jan-040.0716543710.015677245
Feb-040.0777748340.018919323
Mar-040.0681693050.025227568
Apr-040.0808029840.017750429
May-040.0821752090.018434610
Jun-040.0639780520.016535677
Jul-040.0686409280.017470038
Aug-040.0746785530.016813786
Sep-040.0780251050.017117195
Oct-040.0656086270.013290071
Nov-040.0760847400.011382603
Dec-040.0788710270.010083018
Jan-050.0734256980.011066567
Feb-050.0665259770.009661421
Mar-050.0752849390.013133076
Apr-050.0750704340.019537288
May-050.0726712040.023133054
Jun-050.0708511940.021492924
Jul-050.0768331800.015238952
Aug-050.0711616600.015010156
Sep-050.0717751620.021058738
Oct-050.0708481230.021489923
Nov-050.0749974480.019569667
Dec-050.0699736010.020550405
Jan-060.0745384410.019066429
Feb-060.0741715100.015256907
Mar-060.0703881770.013894628
Apr-060.0677150440.011297214
Return to Text


Figure 3. Recession probabilities from best bivariate model and model combinations
dateAA5_sp2y forecastsimpleavgbmavg
Feb-880.0000002690.0544019270.000008745
Mar-880.0000056930.0688181550.000255947
Apr-880.0000007890.0642622470.000135539
May-880.0000029060.0747719180.000297668
Jun-880.0000020520.0610505520.000064613
Jul-880.0000058280.0607209100.000082704
Aug-880.0000075120.0633485740.000034867
Sep-880.0000068540.0596646610.000029306
Oct-880.0000106510.0599260080.000023838
Nov-880.0069163820.0872717120.005999065
Dec-880.0624571320.1132298990.057817120
Jan-890.0044179510.1356844930.007058922
Feb-890.2145123410.1894780800.235927844
Mar-890.2897116150.2399432290.298562161
Apr-890.0122669340.1834050890.012941425
May-890.0017098320.1619098840.001719045
Jun-890.0103700020.1700054060.009269829
Jul-890.0003674020.1455524700.000921994
Aug-890.9020567810.2133394440.735911711
Sep-890.9715503890.2099236060.934619072
Oct-890.2946264830.1900019950.324523804
Nov-890.9201539030.2496884900.902327436
Dec-890.9935548360.3005493590.990773838
Jan-900.9922970220.2614205580.988777730
Feb-900.5225742170.1859755540.676591898
Mar-900.5610555040.2126928280.737728329
Apr-900.7528429540.1869593880.841238978
May-900.0000990080.0808794470.001662080
Jun-900.0003796650.0910145160.003643022
Jul-900.0000036670.0871385930.000285803
Aug-900.0000471200.0961164450.004655730
Sep-900.0000080340.0938875010.000159458
Oct-900.0002528540.1097345000.002863457
Nov-900.0013521580.1247831190.004447750
Dec-900.0608680610.1616777220.174776564
Jan-910.0003685550.1186112010.003469253
Feb-910.0000727160.1070102940.002373956
Mar-910.0000000240.0603432730.000016034
Apr-910.0000000060.0581699120.000062910
May-910.0000000030.0514384200.000024713
Jun-910.0000000040.0551177180.000011819
Jul-910.0000000000.0528302230.000002336
Aug-910.0000000000.0481345230.000001500
Sep-910.0000000000.0419249930.000000538
Oct-910.0000000000.0379557620.000001006
Nov-910.0000000000.0388341560.000000411
Dec-910.0000000000.0351991260.000000015
Jan-920.0000000000.0396979880.000022394
Feb-920.0000000000.0337445470.000000045
Mar-920.0000000000.0370113080.000000546
Apr-920.0000000000.0307554900.000001341
May-920.0000000000.0270255060.000000018
Jun-920.0000000000.0268234110.000000004
Jul-920.0000000000.0245847500.000000013
Aug-920.0000000000.0298461190.000000345
Sep-920.0000000000.0295646090.000000074
Oct-920.0000000000.0471194590.000001190
Nov-920.0000000000.0398942120.000000370
Dec-920.0000000000.0294711830.000000048
Jan-930.0000000000.0271251510.000000008
Feb-930.0000000000.0256537360.000000034
Mar-930.0000000000.0271079220.000001330
Apr-930.0000000000.0245175050.000001051
May-930.0000000000.0275399770.000005469
Jun-930.0000000000.0262727530.000000242
Jul-930.0000000000.0277673400.000004716
Aug-930.0000000000.0261911630.000000022
Sep-930.0000000000.0297366390.000004864
Oct-930.0000000000.0300773700.000018872
Nov-930.0000000000.0292745220.000001179
Dec-930.0000000000.0258531250.000000452
Jan-940.0000000000.0264000160.000000015
Feb-940.0000000000.0272410610.000003984
Mar-940.0000000010.0356036960.000160361
Apr-940.0000000000.0332809460.000000618
May-940.0000000000.0310057450.000000458
Jun-940.0000000110.0354859390.000089364
Jul-940.0000000000.0287517220.000000012
Aug-940.0000000000.0292333050.000000156
Sep-940.0000000060.0330865100.000031590
Oct-940.0000000020.0356627630.000009658
Nov-940.0000000270.0425570190.000004817
Dec-940.0000127640.0591105740.000188396
Jan-950.0000000040.0543883270.000007474
Feb-950.0000000000.0420234500.000001675
Mar-950.0000001240.0400713630.000006311
Apr-950.0000000560.0318388050.000002399
May-950.0000000000.0374801090.000000303
Jun-950.0000003870.0445512190.000009752
Jul-950.0000010830.0435798830.000066783
Aug-950.0000000000.0388031880.000000279
Sep-950.0000000300.0380864580.000002887
Oct-950.0000000340.0492607670.000009094
Nov-950.0000000010.0557383520.000001666
Dec-950.0000000020.0509736080.000002897
Jan-960.0000000000.0499843310.000002020
Feb-960.0000025120.0496627920.000204996
Mar-960.0000000180.0411432070.000002929
Apr-960.0000000170.0324820540.000008163
May-960.0000000250.0325558270.000008590
Jun-960.0000000000.0326987870.000000197
Jul-960.0000000010.0342008860.000002089
Aug-960.0000124960.0430090830.004096957
Sep-960.0000000000.0322453580.000000364
Oct-960.0000000000.0322628920.000000189
Nov-960.0000000000.0325621330.000000564
Dec-960.0000001580.0363377990.000090364
Jan-970.0000000010.0325157660.000002622
Feb-970.0000001380.0337459470.000095825
Mar-970.0000008990.0393550740.000704391
Apr-970.0000000000.0430966950.000000763
May-970.0000000030.0334162870.000004235
Jun-970.0000000180.0349210290.000018235
Jul-970.0000000000.0471178750.000000615
Aug-970.0000000480.0488123950.000024314
Sep-970.0000000040.0432354610.000002396
Oct-970.0000000100.0401623790.000002528
Nov-970.0000028950.0572408810.000099415
Dec-970.0000010910.0636463670.000126609
Jan-980.0000004380.0630214590.000008165
Feb-980.0000053650.0529190490.000012747
Mar-980.0000006860.0558649520.000006545
Apr-980.0000012940.0635994200.000010595
May-980.0000001330.0715773640.000003572
Jun-980.0000014000.0815179760.000016538
Jul-980.0000095130.0649906460.000066517
Aug-980.0000130110.0865769500.000847919
Sep-980.0000020550.0877655380.000098958
Oct-980.1874203410.1199947010.138876106
Nov-980.0000096960.0662548100.000060295
Dec-980.0008987020.0706057520.001020314
Jan-990.0000155300.0583886270.000062071
Feb-990.0078511300.0721361210.007413025
Mar-990.0000019750.0481506190.000040430
Apr-990.0000944330.0451560110.000299889
May-990.0003903020.0507884910.000833988
Jun-990.0000003640.0464115580.000028616
Jul-990.0018954680.0540115500.006485447
Aug-990.0019805650.0569085040.003679446
Sep-990.0000760530.0463776120.000168921
Oct-990.0000023150.0448193320.000011357
Nov-990.0014481510.0608334930.001517675
Dec-990.0040430090.0637955480.003257164
Jan-000.0028117890.0613904680.003204686
Feb-000.0015526090.0891155790.024773592
Mar-000.0156224700.1128020500.050916084
Apr-000.9992295930.2832410910.997993034
May-000.8519713670.2132410420.814005883
Jun-000.9353787560.2158741980.883299637
Jul-000.9850347460.2786282000.980338911
Aug-000.9799164970.2909608350.967080546
Sep-000.8291439390.2537990360.752616647
Oct-000.9971427160.3669005890.985761924
Nov-000.7021651300.3148515790.557901212
Dec-000.9029920480.3146792390.725281200
Jan-010.0095520670.1682837490.029729966
Feb-010.0001027210.1125801130.001465029
Mar-010.0013867670.1506997250.037165935
Apr-010.0007616780.1263110000.035468932
May-010.0000041040.0618537580.000594091
Jun-010.0000220210.0955491600.006194989
Jul-010.0000000010.0475760460.000017143
Aug-010.0000000080.0449597090.000046259
Sep-010.0000000000.0791878050.000214175
Oct-010.0000000000.0641232390.000027238
Nov-010.0000000030.0738389190.000796164
Dec-010.0000000000.0431014090.000005754
Jan-020.0000000000.0514187630.000027293
Feb-020.0000000000.0499182920.000011484
Mar-020.0000000000.0563869020.000099517
Apr-020.0000000000.0351250580.000006755
May-020.0000000000.0343424740.000000765
Jun-020.0000000000.0556122390.000025753
Jul-020.0000000000.0760385550.000089062
Aug-020.0000000000.0955582370.000153602
Sep-020.0000000000.0962754790.000096081
Oct-020.0000000000.1374719550.000781757
Nov-020.0000000020.1300936440.000710178
Dec-020.0000000000.0506396500.000000090
Jan-030.0000000000.0539108560.000000559
Feb-030.0000000000.0484837860.000000043
Mar-030.0000000000.0501182750.000000211
Apr-030.0000000000.0307182600.000000011
May-030.0000000000.0281909500.000000008
Jun-030.0000000000.0456010780.000001314
Jul-030.0000000000.1196290260.001926772
Aug-030.0000000000.0332205900.000000100
Sep-030.0000000000.0221326430.000000001
Oct-030.0000000000.0244393700.000000040
Nov-030.0000000000.0242257230.000000056
Dec-030.0000000000.0206227850.000000086
Jan-040.0000000000.0221471900.000000115
Feb-040.0000000000.0247309820.000000030
Mar-040.0000000000.0266779290.000000278
Apr-040.0000000000.0303884610.000002507
May-040.0000000000.0313232310.000000061
Jun-040.0000000000.0218273950.000000037
Jul-040.0000000000.0219392360.000000247
Aug-040.0000000000.0222780520.000000004
Sep-040.0000000000.0237280720.000000079
Oct-040.0000000000.0230950140.000000036
Nov-040.0000000000.0251480980.000003028
Dec-040.0000000000.0235753670.000000412
Jan-050.0000000000.0250795620.000000073
Feb-050.0000002830.0270001490.000019576
Mar-050.0000000090.0257199370.000000872
Apr-050.0000000030.0284063080.000000244
May-050.0000000210.0284485600.000000950
Jun-050.0000002550.0319915440.000005076
Jul-050.0000240000.0376741300.000089422
Aug-050.0000000060.0345719560.000001571
Sep-050.0001381910.0431857580.000300038
Oct-050.0000487320.0481431030.000220692
Nov-050.0000041200.0429918700.000032994
Dec-050.0000108850.0465321520.000054452
Jan-060.0007081230.0837963910.002105358
Feb-060.0001064320.0918281320.000421767
Mar-060.0010187790.0856822410.003879103
Apr-060.0000796160.0680203030.001002316
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Figure 4. Posterior distribution of recession probabilities across parameters and models
datemeanmedianlo90hi90
2-1-880.0412819040.0000000010.0000000000.175216171
3-1-880.0674352900.0000000830.0000000000.840855771
4-1-880.0576684340.0000000120.0000000000.698967826
5-1-880.0646140980.0000000500.0000000000.855900970
6-1-880.0531260420.0000000350.0000000000.556759081
7-1-880.0582159660.0000000760.0000000000.685173875
8-1-880.0527315680.0000000750.0000000000.511567330
9-1-880.0506860780.0000000840.0000000000.415612355
10-1-880.0490455500.0000000730.0000000000.351260594
11-1-880.1271332280.0003358520.0000000000.990748675
12-1-880.2395476500.0151482590.0000001280.999052706
1-1-890.1398050290.0009263650.0000000040.992138383
2-1-890.3807683490.1501050580.0000029810.999934655
3-1-890.4232111060.2444155040.0000040080.999972233
4-1-890.1723583230.0023413520.0000000050.996231031
5-1-890.0966423850.0000823780.0000000000.945186786
6-1-890.1461591110.0012365050.0000000030.989772916
7-1-890.0788784870.0000183110.0000000000.912703924
8-1-890.6238394790.8722443750.0000306070.999998949
9-1-890.7463628570.9846950600.0003330670.999999950
10-1-890.4093596510.2066691700.0000048090.999956488
11-1-890.6931987920.9547015560.0001904640.999999802
12-1-890.8266824600.9987905470.0016282710.999999999
1-1-900.8205356240.9986438220.0013548150.999999998
2-1-900.5540223540.6804812980.0000334560.999995560
3-1-900.5911891920.7964167290.0000548110.999998040
4-1-900.6517486210.9101064630.0001209850.999999541
5-1-900.0844377940.0000276960.0000000000.939187176
6-1-900.1028590320.0001179870.0000000000.978699800
7-1-900.0581843330.0000005230.0000000000.648611052
8-1-900.0841090150.0000082620.0000000000.960591133
9-1-900.0609668920.0000002230.0000000000.750229301
10-1-900.0992218740.0000197080.0000000000.986463447
11-1-900.1236376120.0000965600.0000000000.992741786
12-1-900.3039220710.0233989040.0000000400.999940847
1-1-910.1171355280.0000372910.0000000000.992381958
2-1-910.1033897100.0000129190.0000000000.987460474
3-1-910.0389983440.0000000030.0000000000.126498300
4-1-910.0405072560.0000000010.0000000000.151139222
5-1-910.0371362640.0000000000.0000000000.103347282
6-1-910.0337849710.0000000000.0000000000.055670561
7-1-910.0258553050.0000000000.0000000000.010077191
8-1-910.0251644060.0000000000.0000000000.008585565
9-1-910.0220760750.0000000000.0000000000.001996774
10-1-910.0245252300.0000000000.0000000000.005130101
11-1-910.0216907640.0000000000.0000000000.001536500
12-1-910.0151230750.0000000000.0000000000.000075823
1-1-920.0303825680.0000000000.0000000000.025256649
2-1-920.0155719030.0000000000.0000000000.000120541
3-1-920.0165911130.0000000000.0000000000.000330677
4-1-920.0189291180.0000000000.0000000000.000854712
5-1-920.0140971710.0000000000.0000000000.000050592
6-1-920.0122739160.0000000000.0000000000.000007102
7-1-920.0139489830.0000000000.0000000000.000014045
8-1-920.0169950320.0000000000.0000000000.000168150
9-1-920.0158408440.0000000000.0000000000.000048465
10-1-920.0216264680.0000000000.0000000000.001755157
11-1-920.0170762060.0000000000.0000000000.000302766
12-1-920.0134684510.0000000000.0000000000.000022919
1-1-930.0118483300.0000000000.0000000000.000004635
2-1-930.0132276200.0000000000.0000000000.000021510
3-1-930.0171272250.0000000000.0000000000.000361496
4-1-930.0162027550.0000000000.0000000000.000149984
5-1-930.0190630310.0000000000.0000000000.000948319
6-1-930.0129007970.0000000000.0000000000.000047537
7-1-930.0165580680.0000000000.0000000000.000617076
8-1-930.0103166050.0000000000.0000000000.000009122
9-1-930.0172519720.0000000000.0000000000.001133510
10-1-930.0190132280.0000000000.0000000000.002695843
11-1-930.0143865960.0000000000.0000000000.000255243
12-1-930.0127759810.0000000000.0000000000.000093475
1-1-940.0099385080.0000000000.0000000000.000007828
2-1-940.0162600980.0000000000.0000000000.000833753
3-1-940.0259310340.0000000000.0000000000.022899678
4-1-940.0158460710.0000000000.0000000000.000616935
5-1-940.0152264270.0000000000.0000000000.000540308
6-1-940.0323658010.0000000020.0000000000.060785960
7-1-940.0116952680.0000000000.0000000000.000034067
8-1-940.0148642550.0000000000.0000000000.000315735
9-1-940.0290394180.0000000010.0000000000.026054016
10-1-940.0254383460.0000000000.0000000000.011392631
11-1-940.0265363100.0000000020.0000000000.016822293
12-1-940.0437630920.0000014850.0000000000.262865906
1-1-950.0224044630.0000000000.0000000000.004444782
2-1-950.0192096750.0000000000.0000000000.001043958
3-1-950.0285418060.0000000040.0000000000.028640045
4-1-950.0267362730.0000000010.0000000000.016327380
5-1-950.0160109040.0000000000.0000000000.000297059
6-1-950.0301781140.0000000050.0000000000.038793290
7-1-950.0389351260.0000000420.0000000000.134020382
8-1-950.0172971210.0000000000.0000000000.000723486
9-1-950.0238991220.0000000000.0000000000.009604578
10-1-950.0252455290.0000000010.0000000000.016124394
11-1-950.0195931530.0000000000.0000000000.002213396
12-1-950.0196942180.0000000000.0000000000.002750501
1-1-960.0197703330.0000000000.0000000000.002385120
2-1-960.0444047030.0000000780.0000000000.284757194
3-1-960.0233624940.0000000000.0000000000.007772399
4-1-960.0253923040.0000000010.0000000000.016923542
5-1-960.0261122590.0000000010.0000000000.018516051
6-1-960.0160587370.0000000000.0000000000.000314973
7-1-960.0217089000.0000000000.0000000000.004086545
8-1-960.0756622980.0000043990.0000000000.863462449
9-1-960.0182573890.0000000000.0000000000.001078732
10-1-960.0160336640.0000000000.0000000000.000322798
11-1-960.0172967070.0000000000.0000000000.001054459
12-1-960.0308158060.0000000120.0000000000.064354956
1-1-970.0204788390.0000000000.0000000000.003053305
2-1-970.0302487070.0000000130.0000000000.057424357
3-1-970.0453097020.0000001980.0000000000.289269519
4-1-970.0190131730.0000000000.0000000000.001418610
5-1-970.0223687640.0000000000.0000000000.006313910
6-1-970.0261258650.0000000010.0000000000.018658119
7-1-970.0177952540.0000000000.0000000000.001055726
8-1-970.0271069490.0000000020.0000000000.024976004
9-1-970.0208446490.0000000000.0000000000.004306258
10-1-970.0210863580.0000000000.0000000000.005248347
11-1-970.0344690060.0000001700.0000000000.115727723
12-1-970.0340082570.0000000780.0000000000.109217179
1-1-980.0243964090.0000000050.0000000000.017485369
2-1-980.0270544980.0000000370.0000000000.037721448
3-1-980.0238849850.0000000060.0000000000.016496399
4-1-980.0253298770.0000000130.0000000000.022396037
5-1-980.0205764270.0000000010.0000000000.007190597
6-1-980.0249909080.0000000150.0000000000.023219353
7-1-980.0331538820.0000002660.0000000000.100567046
8-1-980.0508081710.0000013100.0000000000.424995879
9-1-980.0271769390.0000000140.0000000000.041255879
10-1-980.3105720130.0335351080.0000002420.999749912
11-1-980.0303893720.0000000970.0000000000.077125267
12-1-980.0619592340.0000184240.0000000000.595168217
1-1-990.0297252790.0000000960.0000000000.076075555
2-1-990.1290212870.0005769850.0000000040.964906480
3-1-990.0298467850.0000000460.0000000000.054808112
4-1-990.0497443830.0000029220.0000000000.398556585
5-1-990.0701153200.0000253590.0000000000.726945155
6-1-990.0275882270.0000000190.0000000000.032971580
7-1-990.1229035880.0003294130.0000000010.971460626
8-1-990.1116817320.0002092360.0000000010.958109898
9-1-990.0520240880.0000016100.0000000000.450928398
10-1-990.0300516020.0000000220.0000000000.048597630
11-1-990.0858919190.0000607490.0000000000.880406377
12-1-990.1023868070.0001358060.0000000000.933123966
1-1-000.0997397210.0001875820.0000000000.912363704
2-1-000.1524319850.0009722530.0000000020.986483340
3-1-000.2164927800.0080571240.0000000480.996122704
4-1-000.8878683530.9999430050.0180510581.000000000
5-1-000.6780809200.9379486380.0001340920.999999026
6-1-000.7203394230.9717211150.0002443390.999999703
7-1-000.8074909190.9968975830.0019352380.999999989
8-1-000.7891864240.9948707520.0014232250.999999979
9-1-000.6113975520.8282732090.0001002170.999998057
10-1-000.8130432620.9982032190.0012642430.999999995
11-1-000.5214468310.5765723650.0000214420.999988494
12-1-000.6032400810.8347278470.0000485640.999997099
1-1-010.1827704800.0019770580.0000000170.997136562
2-1-010.0791588470.0000111280.0000000000.865212973
3-1-010.1670597880.0004804320.0000000010.997356999
4-1-010.1698162730.0003013500.0000000000.998181210
5-1-010.0678385090.0000009090.0000000000.776028184
6-1-010.1087931630.0000129090.0000000000.974416237
7-1-010.0264448330.0000000000.0000000000.021546919
8-1-010.0330951240.0000000020.0000000000.092220575
9-1-010.0377624130.0000000000.0000000000.134724151
10-1-010.0219845950.0000000000.0000000000.006137204
11-1-010.0464538130.0000000030.0000000000.329893938
12-1-010.0214439300.0000000000.0000000000.003797100
1-1-020.0233555080.0000000000.0000000000.007567092
2-1-020.0189219510.0000000000.0000000000.001610220
3-1-020.0288468770.0000000000.0000000000.030998098
4-1-020.0193971400.0000000000.0000000000.002852756
5-1-020.0156379520.0000000000.0000000000.000362419
6-1-020.0233805290.0000000000.0000000000.008933650
7-1-020.0281233540.0000000000.0000000000.026659728
8-1-020.0380936540.0000000000.0000000000.129596095
9-1-020.0292206480.0000000000.0000000000.029850159
10-1-020.0381003640.0000000000.0000000000.103516927
11-1-020.0486068570.0000000000.0000000000.430593745
12-1-020.0125444060.0000000000.0000000000.000015082
1-1-030.0165373560.0000000000.0000000000.000181025
2-1-030.0109549010.0000000000.0000000000.000006774
3-1-030.0136754920.0000000000.0000000000.000042281
4-1-030.0092768900.0000000000.0000000000.000002490
5-1-030.0075554160.0000000000.0000000000.000001089
6-1-030.0155918880.0000000000.0000000000.000278477
7-1-030.0402807730.0000000000.0000000000.151647676
8-1-030.0133865300.0000000000.0000000000.000015359
9-1-030.0062928560.0000000000.0000000000.000000057
10-1-030.0119416270.0000000000.0000000000.000007705
11-1-030.0120548200.0000000000.0000000000.000013072
12-1-030.0106034960.0000000000.0000000000.000004703
1-1-040.0109627820.0000000000.0000000000.000008072
2-1-040.0086386850.0000000000.0000000000.000001797
3-1-040.0105529680.0000000000.0000000000.000009351
4-1-040.0159445090.0000000000.0000000000.000168719
5-1-040.0120106500.0000000000.0000000000.000012805
6-1-040.0107652920.0000000000.0000000000.000008871
7-1-040.0124832090.0000000000.0000000000.000045283
8-1-040.0078294000.0000000000.0000000000.000002729
9-1-040.0107795350.0000000000.0000000000.000042051
10-1-040.0088117410.0000000000.0000000000.000014317
11-1-040.0145392760.0000000000.0000000000.000648234
12-1-040.0108574370.0000000000.0000000000.000098470
1-1-050.0097082320.0000000000.0000000000.000093779
2-1-050.0189331290.0000000020.0000000000.010390630
3-1-050.0133719290.0000000000.0000000000.001222327
4-1-050.0113555880.0000000000.0000000000.000444400
5-1-050.0123969320.0000000000.0000000000.001004717
6-1-050.0148676210.0000000010.0000000000.004254588
7-1-050.0272184480.0000003250.0000000000.071320556
8-1-050.0121806060.0000000000.0000000000.000648934
9-1-050.0391012080.0000026610.0000000000.209000416
10-1-050.0344688270.0000011990.0000000000.157051412
11-1-050.0222007110.0000000420.0000000000.032398104
12-1-050.0253991820.0000001050.0000000000.052095026
1-1-060.0666067700.0000380440.0000000000.650791404
2-1-060.0438099250.0000041860.0000000000.287808380
3-1-060.0810810370.0000967730.0000000000.798027995
4-1-060.0506639060.0000039330.0000000000.411748567
5-1-060.0464205010.0000034370.0000000000.316816035
6-1-060.0893015470.0001213080.0000000000.832185018
7-1-060.0515380280.0000033290.0000000000.405639047
8-1-060.0408168550.0000009280.0000000000.221507667
9-1-060.0490568300.0000034420.0000000000.349924020
10-1-060.0433685900.0000009680.0000000000.241246464
11-1-060.0455677560.0000007970.0000000000.287645506
12-1-060.1486733360.0013026100.0000000100.976358405
1-1-070.0808320920.0000561650.0000000000.799170404
2-1-070.0314380210.0000000590.0000000000.075027827
3-1-070.1133106930.0002355340.0000000010.941305183
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This version is optimized for use by screen readers. Descriptions for all mathematical expressions are provided in LaTex format. A printable pdf version is available. Return to Text