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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: 2008-08 Screen Reader version

The "Growing Pains" of TIPS Issuance

Jennifer E. Roush
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
October 16, 2007




Figure 1: TIPS Cost To Date (by issue in order of auction date)
DateBenchmark-LBBenchmark-UBSack and Elsasser (2004)
19970129-782-900-586
19970408-1240-1389-697
1997070966-16-38
19971008-100-18423
19980108802706381
19980408546402185
19980708587458307
1998100714631390894
1999010615491404810
19990407923732427
19990707455266271
19991006528282253
200001121645573
200007121458982
2000101115412392
20010110406348121
20010711104746
200110101651157
2002010931823675
2002071045033252
2002100938428566
2003010827220441
20030709392314 
2003100913371 
20040108255198 
200404079043 
20040708545 
20040727-100-140 
2004100710-31 
20041026150100 
200501136029 
20050125-7-33 
2005041410-9 
20050426-1-22 
200507143219 
20050726-10-18 
20051013-79-93 
20051025-119-132 
20060112-63-75 
20060124-44-57 
20060412-81-91 
2005041410-9 
20060425-35-49 
20060713-130-137 
20060725-128-133 
20061012-182-187 
2006102300 
2007011100 
2007012300 
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Figure 2: Auction Breakeven Rates vs. Projected Inflation (by issue in order of auction date)
DateBenchmark-LBBenchmark-UBActual/Projected
199701293.115854105870183.220741334446182.41668633103624
199704083.332632443879713.446126033595682.37000294396665
199707092.202804706429032.34266654567012.32751986211115
199710082.418499357004252.559709644723312.26689880218673
199801081.687557208898991.783247202678462.499552422936
199804081.996394492885132.138830853166562.52586849713481
199807081.880709425307562.009671000230872.50723260815087
199810070.9090464092506140.9927578534253522.51804698370872
199901060.8153436077284660.9937658912929662.60034340395356
199904071.449756691645651.709108184081422.55524420909525
199907071.97360941104972.23879260112862.595997840102
199910061.887945465001892.238645741558062.54727387451146
200001122.33307853840012.521670817115082.5938673379629
200007122.184352771294432.314058002426512.53359776038637
200010112.113374865022012.186727677589822.51336208751916
200101101.569708656634751.699710746027522.50393941689819
200107112.037160949386562.124894918353272.44005296851735
200110101.830723758807051.97951119929332.46647493831191
200201091.690544878938341.917615527172152.55430160129015
200207101.627405580727211.877074700087662.55405741423336
200210091.453887883200691.724913276367462.52194967276398
200301081.715058434213031.961351276132512.60077218003372
200307091.786948222167311.968277348583212.5916175072596
200310092.230112231350392.405854579528562.56124247729317
200401082.318611547764882.461113519025822.65709865364343
200404072.486307441807312.643012876082162.60827990913901
200407082.534058478049782.714575653101292.58152780695045
200407272.945519706272583.076581363135522.53252515354863
200410072.484959995029942.651295652291292.53069936250867
200410262.290783995982632.447703229351382.65631635052905
200501132.480437891881682.624502291877482.57677669166108
200501252.792537255493182.942521750050822.54380247532691
200504142.637592854476412.736189651510252.56307506799107
200504262.871680731876732.979807069456962.68593396348225
200507142.212962417098942.303928326931972.51643839774807
200507262.573466141705652.657255417503122.51720292404078
200510132.574534306282592.685627550610522.44349764903675
200510253.332271675600793.448160933914552.45893682603904
200601122.338080780206222.46872020986392.44368529624905
200601242.456746759787012.582202633025922.49684096567995
200604122.570944582057662.686016938183572.43658820290773
200504142.637592744357862.736189541338182.56307506799107
200604252.461091015329152.582033091617722.47221144660719
200607132.469771838322612.626047104913092.38594211774341
200607252.780618550381252.930564055051532.436268657801
200610122.463150139969582.585039375019722.30228183605066
200610232.605814120618962.742553869867442.16454618315027
200701112.240611780128762.390233469895592.53046711876346
200701232.477391541363292.602870351423362.52540788060909
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Figure 3: Total Estimated Cost of TIPS Program (by issue in order of auction date)
DateBenchmark-LBBenchmark-UBElsasser & Sack (2004)
19970129-782-900-838
19970408-1240-1389-1005
1997070966-16-38
19971008-100-18423
19980108903798668
1998040815171129740
19980708173813961281
19981007163215521632
19990106189617211632
19990407260320631820
19990707570333526
1999100615797881119
2000011222368107
20000712220139236
20001011628516833
20010110683591544
20010711224174269
20011010938729568
20020109610454493
20020710940695591
20021009831627681
20030108567415456
20030709914715 
20031009314150 
20040108438263 
20040407123-24 
2004070856-128 
20040727-850-1138 
2004100744-108 
20041026247142 
20050113100-40 
20050125-344-567 
20050414-60-148 
20050426-82-132 
20050714259183 
20050726-54-140 
20051013-104-189 
20051025-275-312 
2006011283-26 
2006012459-142 
20060412-105-193 
20050414-60-148 
200604257-60 
20060713-83-215 
20060725-393-563 
20061012-138-230 
20061023-141-183 
20070111236116 
2007012364-95 
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Figure 4: Total TIPS Issuance
Year$ millions
199731
199832
199929
200016
200116
200222
200326
200463
200566
200678
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Figure 5: Daily Trading Volume in the Secondary TIPS Market
Date$ millions
19980128554
19980204298
19980211475
19980218254
19980225787
19980304570
19980311267
19980318312
19980325336
19980401696
199804083346
199804151316
199804221381
199804291083
199805061101
19980513871
19980520552
19980527298
19980603370
19980610559
19980617791
19980624362
199807011163
199807082753
199807151321
19980722786
19980729638
19980805301
19980812761
19980819585
19980826968
19980902862
199809091212
199809161657
19980923817
199809301140
199810072373
199810141269
199810211631
19981028949
19981104799
19981111723
19981118566
19981125561
19981202259
19981209386
19981216239
19981223236
19981230157
199901063681
199901131200
19990120814
199901271188
19990203934
19990210471
19990217991
19990224776
19990303727
19990310548
19990317276
19990324264
19990331323
199904072435
199904141418
199904211393
19990428530
199905051122
199905121200
199905191213
19990526912
199906021368
19990609730
199906161573
199906231620
199906301154
199907072719
199907141831
19990721301
19990728934
19990804630
199908111011
19990818882
19990825558
199909011006
19990908475
19990915462
19990922347
19990929629
199910062314
19991013562
199910201499
19991027506
19991103460
19991110989
19991117721
19991124782
19991201666
19991208572
19991215575
19991222315
19991229318
20000105743
200001122950
200001191309
20000126827
200002021618
200002091379
20000216600
20000223687
20000301716
20000308948
200003151040
20000322982
20000329978
200004051527
20000412833
200004191331
200004261043
200005031623
20000510915
20000517600
20000524656
20000531670
200006071249
200006141033
20000621802
20000628778
20000705851
200007122586
20000719743
20000726790
20000802974
200008091553
20000816730
200008231144
200008301219
200009062086
200009131683
200009201043
200009271584
200010041000
200010114070
200010182150
200010251675
20001101831
20001108938
20001115643
200011221071
200011291446
200012061420
200012131563
200012201527
20001227907
200101032034
200101105306
200101172310
200101242387
200101311411
200103071670
20010314950
200103211910
200103282209
200103071267
200103141716
200103211881
200103281349
200104041794
200104111676
200104181770
200104251995
200105022044
200105091629
200105162650
200105231469
200105301633
20010606974
200106131532
200106201048
200106271542
200107042284
200107114228
200107182020
200107251485
200108011966
200108081286
200108151532
200108221511
200108291335
200109052004
20010912882
200109191690
200109262305
200110031505
200110104143
200110172141
200110242760
200110312168
200111073405
200111141994
200111211969
200111281952
200112051491
200112121503
200112191453
20011226772
20020102740
200201093988
200201162677
200201231074
20020130977
200202061977
200202131306
200202201798
200202271981
200203061433
200203131876
200203201618
200203272073
200204032303
200204101948
200204172739
200204241900
200205011765
200205081367
200205152270
200205221443
200205291185
200206051864
200206122398
200206192897
200206262620
200207032018
200207109179
200207173567
200207242911
200207312543
200208072089
200208142456
200208212111
200208281367
200209042408
200209112104
200209182796
200209252408
200210022472
200210095454
200210165235
200210233086
200210303737
200211063410
200211132408
200211202531
200211272325
200202041914
200202113274
200202182536
200202252265
200301011532
200301087402
200301153292
200301222746
200301292451
200302053316
200302123248
200302192185
200302263477
200303052294
200303122563
200303193823
200303263176
200304022681
200304092663
200304162579
200304232578
200304304610
200305073658
200305144603
200305214171
200305285284
200306043530
200306113260
200306182590
200306252818
200307022666
2003070911622
200307167639
200307234498
200307303707
200308064420
200308133029
200308203318
200308272843
200309032507
200309102930
200309173054
200309242919
200310013616
200310083663
200310156416
200310224303
200310296459
200311053255
200311125454
200311193717
200311263552
200312034134
200312103106
200312172959
200312241554
200312311136
200401077159
200401148850
200401215504
200401285629
200402046609
200402115675
200402183742
200402254503
200403036294
200403104645
200403175456
200403243945
200403315001
200404077510
200404143618
200404214274
200404284652
200405054797
200405124619
200405193834
200405263791
200406023595
200406092772
200406163422
200406232333
200406302939
200407074870
200407147354
200407215416
2004072810614
200408047369
200408115535
200408186409
200408253840
200409014727
200409084546
200409154373
200409228245
200409298331
200410068218
2004101312341
200410205744
2004102718704
2004110311650
200411106630
200411175386
200411247542
200412016815
200412086009
200412155788
200412225916
200412291856
200501055732
200501127836
2005011916510
2005012611302
2005020213552
200502099579
200502168871
200502239334
2005030210278
200503098033
200503167455
200503238889
200503305684
200504067040
200504137275
2005042011000
2005042710750
200505048706
200505116341
200505188837
200505258704
200506018632
200506088934
200506158613
200506228918
200506296867
200507066136
200507135937
2005072011377
2005072710961
2005080310970
200508106909
200508176058
200508245257
200508318543
2005090711390
2005091412058
2005092110046
200509287609
200510058236
200510128646
2005101914065
2005102611549
2005110211233
200511099840
200511166721
2005112310123
200511309268
200512077513
200512146377
200512216161
200512282584
200601044182
200601117764
2006011813072
2006012511857
2006020115480
200602088247
200602156590
200602228107
200603015608
200603087391
200603155496
200603226298
200603295135
200604056768
200604129358
200604198540
2006042610334
2006050310595
200605106172
200605177761
200605245913
200605316261
200606076547
200606146609
200606216040
200606284922
200607055885
200607126953
2006071911175
2006072610884
200608029754
200608099172
200608168838
200608235009
200608308075
200609066396
200609139228
200609209254
200609277844
200610047727
200610116644
200610189731
2006102512001
200611017727
200611085323
200611154054
200611228407
200611295539
200612067047
200612136760
200612208070
200612274060
200701035297
200701109450
2007011710831
2007012412162
2007013111825
200702078295
200702144952
200702216058
200702288799
200703075708
200703148466
200703216771
2007032810568
200704046833
200704115333
2007041811342
2007042510347
2007050211279
200705098149
200705169365
200705239154
200705308411
200706067278
2007061310772
200706209175
200706278675
200707046665
200707117915
2007071812490
200707258007
2007080110206
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Figure 6: Liquidity Component of the TIPS Yield (on auction dates)
DatePercent
199729001.7344
199732001.7344
199763001.9169
199780001.9169
199808001.7344
199832001.7344
199856001.7344
199870001.7344
199906001.7344
199928001.6164
199949001.3095
199960001.3013
200012001.2395
200084001.1686
200110001.3153
200110001.3375
200177001.2872
200200001.4726
200209001.4396
200270001.3377
200290001.1575
200308001.0747
200363000.9959
200390000.8216
200408000.6147
200428000.49
200456000.4271
200589000.4643
200470000.4375
200660000.3546
20051300-0.1263
20052500-0.121
20055600-0.0499
200604000.206
200598000.2616
200682000.2509
200630000.1238
200750000.0502
200612000.2493
200624000.2204
200648000.3213
20055600-0.0499
200700000.2375
200691000.3702
200775000.3165
200720000.4533
200830000.5542
200711000.4698
200723000.4049
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Figure 7: On-the-Run Liquidity Premium in the Nominal Treasury Market on Days of TIPS Auctions
DateMinMax
199701290.01920363780.1224552101
199704080.03193268150.1435349619
199707090.0246731930.1629635507
199710080.04078874190.1802632028
199801080.07112881710.1659956521
199804080.06578836050.2067672777
199807080.07164785510.1993672419
199810070.18434784060.2676631624
199901060.13264820220.3102671671
199904070.09324810150.3505675364
199907070.04764768720.3100673723
199910060.06574794890.4128672647
200001120.03583254190.2221633607
200007120.10743238780.2356951766
200010110.09404346470.1666161036
200101100.10429506830.2332431984
200107110.10813265170.1949631387
200110100.0467026830.1940862155
200201090.04242265290.2674633676
20020710-0.01343743870.2340633088
200210090.0344325760.3033211517
200301080.01650781330.2605576181
200307090.0004526170.180095259
20031009-0.00233145150.1713974047
200401080.00611780550.146937089
200404070.01964779210.1743691951
20040708-0.03032180880.1478573847
200407270.03433142220.1634491831
20041007-0.00435144120.1598754472
200410260.00195490780.1570370126
20050113-0.01582593240.1264230424
20050125-0.01039528530.1374691874
200504140.03121324220.1285030061
200504260.01807153440.12463893
200507140.01859290590.1085430795
200507260.02559142680.1082991511
200510130.02133222470.130983513
200510250.0266616160.1406191736
200601120.00165343410.1307416153
200601240.00841215980.1323072839
200604120.01413576280.1277154124
200504140.03121324220.1285030061
200604250.00501289850.1244491488
20060713-0.05159822210.1027112198
20060725-0.04263754950.1051971841
20061012-0.01967720150.1006929094
20061023-0.02714408130.1077914608
20070111-0.0495778630.0983314705
20070123-0.02138777840.1025173593
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