Keywords: Saddle point property, linear rational expections models
Economists at the Board have an operational need for tools that are useful for building, estimating and simulating moderate to large scale rational expectations models. This context dictates a need for careful attention to computational efficiency and numerical stability of the algorithms.
These algorithms have proved very durable and useful for staff at the central bank. Many economists at the Federal Reserve Board have used the algorithms in their daily work and their research.2With the exception of researchers at other European central banks[Zagaglia, 2002], few economists outside the US central bank seem to know about the method. This paper attempts to make the method and approach more widely available by describing the underlying theory along with a number of improvements on the original algorithm.3
The most distinctive features of this approach are:
This unique combination of features makes the algorithm especially effective for large models. See [Anderson, 2006] for a systematic comparison of this algorithm with the alternatives procedures.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 3 states the saddle point problem. Section 3 describes the algorithms for solving the homogeneous and inhomogeneous versions of the problem and describes several implementations. Section 4 shows how to compute matrices often found useful for manipulating rational expectations model solutions: the observable structure(Section 4.1) and stochastic transition matrices(Section 4.2). The Appendices contain proofs for the linear algebra underlying the algorithm and the solution of a simple example model.
Consider linear models of the form:
with initial conditions, if any, given by constraints of the form
where both and are non-negative, and is an L dimensional vector of endogenous variables with
Section 3 describes computationally efficient algorithms for determining the existence and uniqueness of solutions to this problem.
The uniqueness of solutions to system 1 requires that any transition matrix characterizing the dynamics of the linear system have an appropriate number of explosive and stable eigenvalues[Blanchard & Kahn, 1980], and that a certain set of asymptotic linear constraints are linearly independent of explicit and certain other auxiliary initial conditions[Anderson & Moore, 1985].
The solution methodology entails
Figure 1 presents a flowchart of the algorithm.
Suppose, for now, that :4
The homogeneous specification 8 is not restrictive. Since the procedure can handle inhomogeneous versions of equation 1 by recasting the problem in terms of deviations from a steady state value. However, the next section provides a more intuitive, flexible and computationally efficient alternative for computing inhomogeneous solutions.5
This section describes how to determine a first-order state space representation of the equation system 8. The method is an extension of the shuffling algorithm developed in[Luenberger, 1978,Luenberger, 1977]. If is non-singular, we can immediately obtain in terms of
This, first, algorithm applies full rank linear transformations to equations from the original linear system in order to express in terms of . It produces an unconstrained, typically explosive, autoregressive representation for the evolution of the components of the state space vectors and a set of vectors that provide important auxiliary initial conditions.
Section A.1 presents a proof that repeating this process of annihilating and regrouping rows ultimately produces an with non-singular. The proof identifies a benign rank condition that guarantees that the algorithm will successfully compute the unconstrained autoregression and the auxiliary initial conditions.
Figures 2-4 provide a graphical characterization of the linear algebraic transformations characterizing the algorithm. Figure 2 presents a graphical characterization of the relevant set of linear constraints for . The figure represents the regions where the coefficients are potentially non-zero as shaded gray. If is singular, one can find a linear combination of its rows which preserves the rank of but which annihilates one or more of its rows.
Consequently, one can pre-multiply the matrices presented in Figure 2 by a unitary matrix to get the distribution of zeros displayed in Figure 3. Since the matrices repeat over time, one need only investigate the rank of the square matrix . . With some of the rows of all zeros. One can regroup the rows in the new tableau to get . By construction, the rank of can be no less than the rank of .
Note that changing the order of the equations in will not affect the rank of or the space spanned by the nonzero rows that will enter . Since is not full rank, a subset of the rows of will span the same space as . The other rows in will come from linear combinations of the original system of equations in effect "shifted forward" in time.
One can think of the "Full Rank Leading Block" matrix as the result of premultiplications of the "Initial Tableau" by a sequence of unitary matrices. Implementations of the algorithm can take advantage of the fact that the rows of the matrices repeat. The regrouping can be done by "shifting equations forward" in time in an version of the tableau.
Section A.1 presents a proof that repeating this process of annihilating and regrouping rows ultimately produces an with non-singular. Algorithm 1 presents pseudo code for an algorithm for computing the components of the state space transition matrix and the auxiliary initial conditions.
with non singular. Let
This unconstrained auto-regression in provides exactly what one needs to construct the state space transition matrix.
In order to compute solutions to equation 8 that converge, one must rule out explosive trajectories. Blanchard and Kahn[Blanchard & Kahn, 1980] used eigenvalue and eigenvector calculations to characterize the space in which the solutions must lie. In contrast, our approach uses an orthogonality constraint to characterize regions which the solutions must avoid.
Each left eigenvector associated with a given eigenvalue is orthogonal to each right eigenvector associated with roots associated with different eigenvalues. Since vectors in the left invariant space associated with roots outside the unit circle are orthogonal to right eigenvectors associated with roots inside the unit circle, a given state vector that is part of a convergent trajectory must be orthogonal to each of these left invariant space vectors. See theorem 4. Thus, the algorithm can exploit bi-orthogonality and a less burdensome computation of vectors spanning the left invariant space in order to rule out explosive trajectories.
If the vectors in V span the invariant space associated with explosive roots, trajectories satisfying equation 8 are non-explosive if and only if
Combining V and completely characterizes the space of stable solutions satisfying the linear system 8.
The first set of equations come from the equations in equation system 8 which do not appear in the transformed system of Equation 1 but must nevertheless be satisfied. The second set of equations come from the constraint that the solutions are non-explosive. Algorithm 3.1.2 provides pseudo code for computing Q.
The first two algorithms together produce a matrix characterizing constraints guaranteeing that trajectories are not explosive. See theorem 5 and corollary 2 for a proof. [Hallet & McAdam, 1999] describes how to use the matrix from Section 3.1.2 to impose saddle point stability in non linear perfect foresight models. However, for linear models with unique saddle point solutions it is often useful to employ an autoregressive representation of the solution. Theorem 6 in Section A.3 provides a fully general characterization of the existence and uniqueness of a saddle point solution.
A summary for typical applications of the algorithm follows. Partition where has columns. When , is square. If is non-singular, the system has a unique solution7
|and solutions are of the form||(19)|
Algorithm 3 provides pseudo code for computing B.
Modelers can augment the homogeneous linear perfect foresight solutions with particular solutions characterizing the impact of exogenous vector autoregressive variables.
one can show that
See Section A.5 for derivations and formulae.
This set of algorithms has been implemented in a wide variety of languages. Three implementations, a Matlab, a "C", and a Mathematica implementation, are available from the author.Each implementation avoids using the large tableau of Figure 2. They each shift elements in the rows of a single copy of the matrix . Each implementation eliminates inessential lags from the autoregressive representation before constructing the state space transition matrix for invariant space calculations.
The most widely used version is written in MATLAB. The MATLAB version has a convenient modeling language front end for specifying the model equations and generating the matrices.
The "C" version, designed especially for solving large scale models is by far the fastest implementation and most frugal with memory. It uses sparse linear algebra routines from SPARSKIT[Saad, 1994] and HARWELL[Numerical Analysis Group, 1995] to economize on memory. It avoids costly eigenvector calculations by computing vectors spanning the left invariant space using ARPACK[Lehoucq et al., 1996].
For small models, one can employ a symbolic algebra version of the algorithms written in Mathematica. On present day computers this, code can easily construct symbolic state space transition matrices and compute symbolic expressions for eigenvalues for models with 5 to 10 equations. The code can often obtain symbolic expressions for the invariant space vectors when the transition matrix is of dimension 10 or less.
Economists use linear rational expectations models in a wide array of application. The following sections describe calculations which are useful for optimal policy design, model simulation and estimation exercises.
To compute the error term for estimation of the coefficients of these models, one must commit to a particular information set. Two typical choices are t and t-1 period expectations.
Given structural model matrices, and convergent autoregression matrices there exists an observable structure matrix,
To compute covariances, practitioners will find it useful to construct the stochastic transition matrices and .
Given structural model matrices, and convergent autoregression matrices there exist stochastic transition matrices , such that
This paper describes a set of algorithms that have proved very durable and useful for staff at the central bank. The most distinctive features of this approach are:
The unique combination of features makes the algorithm more efficient than all the alternatives--especially for large models. Staff at the Federal Reserves have developed a large scale linear rational expectations model consisting of 421 equations with one lead and one lag. This model provides an extreme example of the speed advantage of the Anderson-Moore Algorithm(AMA). On an Intel(R) Xeon 2.80GHz CPU running Linux the MATLAB version of AMA computes the rational expectations solution in 21 seconds while the the MATLAB version of gensys, a popular alternative procedure, requires 16,953 seconds. See [Anderson, 2006] for a systematic comparison of this algorithm with the alternative procedures. The code is available for download at
Proof Consider the case when is full rank. Each step of the algorithm applies a rank preserving pre-multiplication by a non singular matrix. Each step of the algorithm where is singular, increases the row rank of by at least one. At each step are full rank. The rank of cannot exceed .
The following corollary indicates that models with unique steady-states always terminate with non singular .
Proof Suppose is not full rank. Then there is a non zero vector such that . Consequently,
So that must be singular.
Proof A right eigenvector and a left-eigenvector corresponding to distinct eigenvalues and are orthogonal.[Noble, 1969] Finite dimensional matrices have finite dimensional Jordan blocks. Raising a given matrix to a power produces a matrix with smaller Jordan blocks. Raising the matrix to a high enough power ultimately eliminates all nontrivial Jordan Blocks. Consequently, the left invariant space vectors are linear combination of the left eigenvectors and the right invariant space vectors are a linear combination of the right eigenvectors of the transition matrix raised to some finite power.
Proof Using , the left generalized eigenvectors of , one can employ the Jordan Canonical Form of A to write
The existence of convergent solutions depends on the magnitudes of the ranks of the augmented matrix
and solutions are of the form
When , The system has an infinity of solutions.
When has more than rows, The system has a unique nontrivial solution only for specific values of
Proof of rank of Q
Proof The theorem applies well known results on existence and uniqueness of solutions to linear equation systems[Noble, 1969]. If does not lie in the column space of , then there is no solution. If lies in the column space of and the latter matrix is full rank, then there is a unique solution. If lies in the column space of and the latter matrix is not full rank, then there are multiple solutions.
Proof Construct the matrix:
Applying equation 8 to the unique convergent solution, it follows that
Which can also be written as:
where the matrices are .
Consider the impact that the time value has on the value of We can write
So we have
Now consider the impact of on . We can write
where the last term captures the impact has on values of x and later. Using equations A.35 and A.36 we can write
and more generally
To accommodate lagged expectations, suppose that information on all the endogenous variables becomes available with the same lag () in time: such that then set,
Since one can write
Note that for
This section applies algorithms 1-3 to the following model with N=2.[Taylor, 1979]
The initial matrix , for the example model with variable order is
Since is singular, we use equations dated subsequent to the present time period to construct a set of linear constraints where the leading block is non singular.
For the example model
where the 's are
When has more than rows, The system has a unique nontrivial solution only for specific values of . Return to Text