The Federal Reserve Board eagle logo links to home page
Skip to: [Printable Version (PDF)] [Bibliography] [Footnotes]
Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2011-33 ♣

Have Cyclical Movements in the Unemployment Rate Become More Persistent?

Andrew Figura

Figure 1. The Behavior of the Unemployment Rate, Panel A

date Unemployment rate
1948 3.74
1948.25 3.7
1948.5 3.75
1948.75 3.82
1949 4.64
1949.25 5.86
1949.5 6.69
1949.75 6.97
1950 6.4
1950.25 5.56
1950.5 4.65
1950.75 4.2
1951 3.51
1951.25 3.11
1951.5 3.2
1951.75 3.39
1952 3.08
1952.25 2.99
1952.5 3.23
1952.75 2.81
1953 2.69
1953.25 2.61
1953.5 2.73
1953.75 3.71
1954 5.25
1954.25 5.79
1954.5 5.98
1954.75 5.37
1955 4.72
1955.25 4.39
1955.5 4.12
1955.75 4.22
1956 4.04
1956.25 4.2
1956.5 4.14
1956.75 4.11
1957 3.96
1957.25 4.07
1957.5 4.22
1957.75 4.94
1958 6.29
1958.25 7.37
1958.5 7.32
1958.75 6.36
1959 5.81
1959.25 5.12
1959.5 5.3
1959.75 5.6
1960 5.17
1960.25 5.24
1960.5 5.56
1960.75 6.26
1961 6.79
1961.25 6.99
1961.5 6.76
1961.75 6.18
1962 5.63
1962.25 5.49
1962.5 5.55
1962.75 5.52
1963 5.79
1963.25 5.69
1963.5 5.51
1963.75 5.59
1964 5.47
1964.25 5.23
1964.5 5
1964.75 4.97
1965 4.88
1965.25 4.67
1965.5 4.36
1965.75 4.11
1966 3.86
1966.25 3.82
1966.5 3.76
1966.75 3.69
1967 3.82
1967.25 3.82
1967.5 3.8
1967.75 3.93
1968 3.74
1968.25 3.55
1968.5 3.52
1968.75 3.41
1969 3.39
1969.25 3.44
1969.5 3.6
1969.75 3.59
1970 4.17
1970.25 4.76
1970.5 5.18
1970.75 5.81
1971 5.93
1971.25 5.92
1971.5 5.99
1971.75 5.97
1972 5.79
1972.25 5.68
1972.5 5.61
1972.75 5.33
1973 4.98
1973.25 4.92
1973.5 4.82
1973.75 4.79
1974 5.11
1974.25 5.19
1974.5 5.61
1974.75 6.58
1975 8.24
1975.25 8.85
1975.5 8.49
1975.75 8.28
1976 7.75
1976.25 7.55
1976.5 7.72
1976.75 7.76
1977 7.52
1977.25 7.13
1977.5 6.89
1977.75 6.64
1978 6.32
1978.25 6
1978.5 6.02
1978.75 5.88
1979 5.87
1979.25 5.71
1979.5 5.86
1979.75 5.93
1980 6.29
1980.25 7.32
1980.5 7.68
1980.75 7.39
1981 7.42
1981.25 7.39
1981.5 7.41
1981.75 8.24
1982 8.84
1982.25 9.42
1982.5 9.94
1982.75 10.67
1983 10.39
1983.25 10.1
1983.5 9.35
1983.75 8.53
1984 7.86
1984.25 7.47
1984.5 7.44
1984.75 7.27
1985 7.27
1985.25 7.28
1985.5 7.2
1985.75 7.05
1986 7.01
1986.25 7.17
1986.5 6.98
1986.75 6.83
1987 6.61
1987.25 6.27
1987.5 6
1987.75 5.86
1988 5.72
1988.25 5.48
1988.5 5.48
1988.75 5.34
1989 5.2
1989.25 5.23
1989.5 5.27
1989.75 5.36
1990 5.3
1990.25 5.34
1990.5 5.69
1990.75 6.11
1991 6.57
1991.25 6.82
1991.5 6.85
1991.75 7.1
1992 7.38
1992.25 7.6
1992.5 7.63
1992.75 7.41
1993 7.15
1993.25 7.07
1993.5 6.8
1993.75 6.62
1994 6.56
1994.25 6.17
1994.5 6
1994.75 5.62
1995 5.48
1995.25 5.68
1995.5 5.66
1995.75 5.57
1996 5.55
1996.25 5.47
1996.5 5.26
1996.75 5.31
1997 5.23
1997.25 4.98
1997.5 4.86
1997.75 4.68
1998 4.64
1998.25 4.42
1998.5 4.53
1998.75 4.43
1999 4.29
1999.25 4.25
1999.5 4.25
1999.75 4.08
2000 4.05
2000.25 3.95
2000.5 4.03
2000.75 3.92
2001 4.23
2001.25 4.41
2001.5 4.82
2001.75 5.54
2002 5.7
2002.25 5.84
2002.5 5.73
2002.75 5.85
2003 5.87
2003.25 6.15
2003.5 6.1
2003.75 5.82
2004 5.68
2004.25 5.59
2004.5 5.43
2004.75 5.39
2005 5.28
2005.25 5.11
2005.5 4.97
2005.75 4.95
2006 4.72
2006.25 4.66
2006.5 4.64
2006.75 4.45
2007 4.51
2007.25 4.49
2007.5 4.67
2007.75 4.82
2008 4.96
2008.25 5.32
2008.5 6.04
2008.75 6.91
2009 8.21
2009.25 9.27
2009.5 9.67
2009.75 9.99
2010 9.69
2010.25 9.65
2010.5 9.58
2010.75 9.62
Return to Figure 1

Figure 1. The Behavior of the Unemployment Rate, Cyclical Unemployment Rate, Panel B

date Baxter King Christiano-Fitzgerald
1948    
1948.25    
1948.5    
1948.75    
1949    
1949.25    
1949.5    
1949.75    
1950    
1950.25    
1950.5    
1950.75    
1951 -0.6716041 -0.8024326
1951.25 -0.8729026 -1.002715
1951.5 -0.9203849 -1.007248
1951.75 -0.8770372 -0.9023571
1952 -0.7879837 -0.7837099
1952.25 -0.7444715 -0.748468
1952.5 -0.8553402 -0.8577031
1952.75 -1.128523 -1.078506
1953 -1.402065 -1.258665
1953.25 -1.397038 -1.182131
1953.5 -0.9168964 -0.6959279
1953.75 -0.0114362 0.1661387
1954 0.9976482 1.154001
1954.25 1.697472 1.904575
1954.5 1.814563 2.128531
1954.75 1.361522 1.770363
1955 0.6043643 1.041109
1955.25 -0.1009432 0.2988209
1955.5 -0.5058362 -0.1543443
1955.75 -0.5723743 -0.2366139
1956 -0.4455243 -0.112337
1956.25 -0.3644532 -0.0626948
1956.5 -0.4986669 -0.2822024
1956.75 -0.8410594 -0.7319978
1957 -1.182815 -1.149408
1957.25 -1.22025 -1.214568
1957.5 -0.7544271 -0.7693512
1957.75 0.1334814 0.0570819
1958 1.08676 0.9046952
1958.25 1.674214 1.387999
1958.5 1.648347 1.315249
1958.75 1.095708 0.7781821
1959 0.3477688 0.0632844
1959.25 -0.2524053 -0.5377477
1959.5 -0.5587884 -0.8778131
1959.75 -0.6231591 -0.9708897
1960 -0.5580281 -0.8961638
1960.25 -0.4054779 -0.6964521
1960.5 -0.1218187 -0.3647769
1960.75 0.3059388 0.0817628
1961 0.7509978 0.5305058
1961.25 0.9902135 0.7952988
1961.5 0.8744617 0.7352781
1961.75 0.4673625 0.3758658
1962 0.0098656 -0.0789623
1962.25 -0.2585073 -0.3697771
1962.5 -0.2408614 -0.3527944
1962.75 -0.0294206 -0.0875588
1963 0.1941912 0.2244661
1963.25 0.3107017 0.3962319
1963.5 0.3015322 0.3802292
1963.75 0.2272926 0.2708486
1964 0.1612962 0.19903
1964.25 0.1391799 0.2187468
1964.5 0.151884 0.2781027
1964.75 0.1586897 0.2843575
1965 0.1193814 0.1917065
1965.25 0.0226401 0.032643
1965.5 -0.1204368 -0.1235218
1965.75 -0.2778569 -0.2331282
1966 -0.3998867 -0.2994607
1966.25 -0.4515518 -0.3412107
1966.5 -0.419745 -0.3522956
1966.75 -0.3177789 -0.3021677
1967 -0.190182 -0.1779511
1967.25 -0.096823 -0.0210117
1967.5 -0.0729109 0.0875193
1967.75 -0.1234642 0.0862163
1968 -0.2358035 -0.0168018
1968.25 -0.3766557 -0.1529821
1968.5 -0.5182616 -0.2543542
1968.75 -0.6523729 -0.3072911
1969 -0.7749742 -0.3453925
1969.25 -0.8606082 -0.3883811
1969.5 -0.8607308 -0.3909498
1969.75 -0.7171794 -0.2609784
1970 -0.3990116 0.0591162
1970.25 0.0485702 0.5195297
1970.5 0.5100598 0.9707609
1970.75 0.8602751 1.254668
1971 1.020667 1.305502
1971.25 1.001233 1.17635
1971.5 0.8804177 0.9725853
1971.75 0.7207504 0.7567218
1972 0.5217816 0.5110055
1972.25 0.2479238 0.1850502
1972.5 -0.085009 -0.2269357
1972.75 -0.4130056 -0.6608278
1973 -0.6853755 -1.034406
1973.25 -0.9117085 -1.318735
1973.5 -1.140332 -1.546554
1973.75 -1.363991 -1.738018
1974 -1.46238 -1.816786
1974.25 -1.24239 -1.617834
1974.5 -0.5980936 -1.013427
1974.75 0.3467318 -0.0658309
1975 1.267346 0.9347081
1975.25 1.82021 1.61167
1975.5 1.844587 1.739478
1975.75 1.453836 1.397744
1976 0.9583871 0.9140215
1976.25 0.6465101 0.6291274
1976.5 0.5985454 0.6620066
1976.75 0.6721792 0.8530849
1977 0.6522239 0.9215084
1977.25 0.4075967 0.7010534
1977.5 -0.0127216 0.2631913
1977.75 -0.41933 -0.1623337
1978 -0.6533687 -0.3885516
1978.25 -0.7194642 -0.4182976
1978.5 -0.7281341 -0.4179446
1978.75 -0.7940339 -0.5513443
1979 -0.9631154 -0.823539
1979.25 -1.143216 -1.067837
1979.5 -1.174997 -1.082896
1979.75 -0.9681273 -0.8013436
1980 -0.5765743 -0.3518305
1980.25 -0.1654821 0.0295715
1980.5 0.070144 0.1616652
1980.75 0.0369158 0.0294382
1981 -0.1889914 -0.2256047
1981.25 -0.4001081 -0.4072801
1981.5 -0.3836086 -0.3727174
1981.75 -0.0447895 -0.0816871
1982 0.5629173 0.4138392
1982.25 1.264331 0.9999843
1982.5 1.848713 1.523354
1982.75 2.144992 1.815621
1983 2.074079 1.743702
1983.25 1.65453 1.279134
1983.5 0.9897938 0.5400048
1983.75 0.2724494 -0.2429916
1984 -0.2895999 -0.8344082
1984.25 -0.5816453 -1.111405
1984.5 -0.6178678 -1.109708
1984.75 -0.5066236 -0.9673699
1985 -0.3814132 -0.8132516
1985.25 -0.301121 -0.6869525
1985.5 -0.2360589 -0.5452221
1985.75 -0.1328243 -0.335465
1986 0.0215344 -0.0645791
1986.25 0.1915631 0.1959753
1986.5 0.3018095 0.36621
1986.75 0.2948422 0.4189335
1987 0.1747211 0.3919348
1987.25 0.0015619 0.3462607
1987.5 -0.1593193 0.3145329
1987.75 -0.2824332 0.2865812
1988 -0.375464 0.2386516
1988.25 -0.4590484 0.1696844
1988.5 -0.5369644 0.1050816
1988.75 -0.5953255 0.0656268
1989 -0.6313289 0.0376674
1989.25 -0.6633865 -0.0191141
1989.5 -0.712253 -0.1286971
1989.75 -0.7587079 -0.2617498
1990 -0.7483395 -0.3450523
1990.25 -0.6343437 -0.3154547
1990.5 -0.4137423 -0.172556
1990.75 -0.132204 0.0182397
1991 0.1384353 0.1770679
1991.25 0.3539661 0.2701541
1991.5 0.526185 0.3252542
1991.75 0.6839106 0.3892159
1992 0.83985 0.4690761
1992.25 0.9566575 0.5140451
1992.5 0.9695648 0.4575965
1992.75 0.8556767 0.2816489
1993 0.6587394 0.0421933
1993.25 0.4604597 -0.1701173
1993.5 0.3182102 -0.3007949
1993.75 0.218655 -0.3698797
1994 0.1001053 -0.4424686
1994.25 -0.0718446 -0.557888
1994.5 -0.2604342 -0.6824309
1994.75 -0.3836691 -0.7298937
1995 -0.3845819 -0.6328937
1995.25 -0.2753273 -0.4020114
1995.5 -0.1228203 -0.1209135
1995.75 -0.0039653 0.1169205
1996 0.0532471 0.2732565
1996.25 0.068227 0.3767308
1996.5 0.0699308 0.4766061
1996.75 0.0745679 0.5862963
1997 0.0735935 0.6699458
1997.25 0.04241 0.6813948
1997.5 -0.0212438 0.6143726
1997.75 -0.0966684 0.5135305
1998 -0.1486742 0.4353573
1998.25 -0.1658468 0.3970896
1998.5 -0.1660617 0.3630084
1998.75 -0.1806553 0.2807045
1999 -0.2279334 0.1312678
1999.25 -0.2968251 -0.0555646
1999.5 -0.3682808 -0.2348152
1999.75 -0.4348551 -0.3925889
2000 -0.5184807 -0.5555117
2000.25 -0.6335174 -0.7496252
2000.5 -0.7512134 -0.947648
2000.75 -0.7921277 -1.060934
2001 -0.6743863 -0.9949927
2001.25 -0.385884 -0.7275441
2001.5 -0.0022461 -0.3414513
2001.75 0.3447488 0.021301
2002 0.5514385 0.2520792
2002.25 0.6075618 0.3416083
2002.5 0.584152 0.3683827
2002.75 0.567722 0.4232678
2003 0.5981486 0.5352836
2003.25 0.6448427 0.6576154
2003.5 0.6383658 0.7179512
2003.75 0.5373883 0.6835988
2004 0.3712883 0.5853418
2004.25 0.2039385 0.4857551
2004.5 0.0920227 0.4264851
2004.75 0.039314 0.4014985
2005 0.0023847 0.3732589
2005.25 -0.0567764 0.3088958
2005.5 -0.1556302 0.2012273
2005.75 -0.2910637 0.0617205
2006 -0.4561509 -0.0978625
2006.25 -0.6447784 -0.2719803
2006.5 -0.8372568 -0.4527895
2006.75 -0.9983304 -0.6241184
2007 -1.109489 -0.7718775
2007.25 -1.190625 -0.9004155
2007.5 -1.28951 -1.028427
2007.75 -1.410626 -1.15404
2008    
2008.25    
2008.5    
2008.75    
2009    
2009.25    
2009.5    
2009.75    
2010    
2010.25    
2010.5    
2010.75    
Return to Figure 1

Figure 2. Autocorrelation of Cyclical Unemployment Rate, Full Sample, Panel A

Lag Autocorrelation
1 0.91022482
2 0.68795197
3 0.40306511
4 0.13244918
5 -0.07247118
6 -0.20033127
7 -0.27096279
8 -0.31262753
9 -0.34168232
10 -0.35637492
Return to Figure 2

Figure 2. Autocorrelation of Cyclical Unemployment Rate, 1948-1983, Panel B

Lag Autocorrelation
1 0.90567628
2 0.66047311
3 0.34932185
4 0.06404819
5 -0.13636756
6 -0.24298464
7 -0.28536801
8 -0.30279071
9 -0.31816715
10 -0.32926975
Return to Figure 2

Figure 2. Autocorrelation of Cyclical Unemployment Rate for 1984-2008, Panel C

Lag Autocorrelation
1 0.93140182
2 0.80854342
3 0.65019368
4 0.47406062
5 0.29387414
6 0.11897295
7 -0.04322114
8 -0.1849187
9 -0.29803292
10 -0.3774215
Return to Figure 2

Figure 3. Normalized Population Spectrum of Cyclical Unemployment Rate Full Sample, Panel A

Frequency Spectrum Density
0.1501957 0.6651552
0.2002609 0.9055868
0.2503261 1.081714
0.3003913 1.12655
0.3504566 1.037006
0.4005218 0.8687286
0.450587 0.6817257
0.5006522 0.5073705
0.5507174 0.366042
0.6007826 0.2816107
0.6508479 0.2566707
0.7009131 0.2553276
0.7509784 0.2361007
0.8010436 0.1925577
0.8511088 0.1451759
0.901174 0.1064117
0.9512392 0.0736635
1.001304 0.0467926
1.05137 0.0309009
1.101435 0.0242166
1.1515 0.0190925
1.201565 0.0137789
1.251631 0.0118131
1.301696 0.0123839
1.351761 0.0113106
1.401826 0.0089044
1.451891 0.0083525
1.501957 0.0089784
1.552022 0.0080932
Return to Figure 3

Figure 3. Normalized Population Spectrum of Cyclical Unemployment Rate Before 1983Q4, Panel B

Frequency Spectrum Density
0.1501957 0.5582694
0.2002609 0.8062845
0.2503261 1.003005
0.3003913 1.074209
0.3504566 1.029049
0.4005218 0.9092338
0.450587 0.7388348
0.5006522 0.5449103
0.5507174 0.3855646
0.6007826 0.3113405
0.6508479 0.3081674
0.7009131 0.312991
0.7509784 0.2844765
0.8010436 0.231986
0.8511088 0.1787229
0.901174 0.1293262
0.9512392 0.0822876
1.001304 0.0467834
1.05137 0.0303259
1.101435 0.0249752
1.1515 0.0192178
1.201565 0.0130273
1.251631 0.0112671
1.301696 0.0119003
1.351761 0.0102907
1.401826 0.0077358
1.451891 0.007506
1.501957 0.0081287
1.552022 0.0069857
Return to Figure 3

Figure 3. Normalized Population Spectrum of Cyclical Unemployment RateAfter 1983:Q4, Panel C

Frequency Spectrum Density
0.1501957 1.182606
0.2002609 1.472141
0.2503261 1.521058
0.3003913 1.263923
0.3504566 0.8255843
0.4005218 0.4469655
0.450587 0.2721502
0.5006522 0.2395739
0.5507174 0.2087331
0.6007826 0.137343
0.6508479 0.0808854
0.7009131 0.0695433
0.7509784 0.0691366
0.8010436 0.0523527
0.8511088 0.0363639
0.901174 0.0387112
0.9512392 0.0462801
1.001304 0.043068
1.05137 0.033921
1.101435 0.0279619
1.1515 0.0234332
1.201565 0.0180984
1.251631 0.0158472
1.301696 0.0170318
1.351761 0.0164782
1.401826 0.0135463
1.451891 0.0125482
1.501957 0.0134686
1.552022 0.01256
Return to Figure 3

Figure 4. Impulse Responses of Cyclical Unemployment Rate up to 1988Q1, Panel A

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.72804 1.66146 1.79462
2 2.0784 1.90626 2.25055
3 2.02298 1.73864 2.30733
4 1.60918 1.23403 1.98433
5 0.944426 0.515885 1.37297
6 0.171314 -0.274177 0.616805
7 -0.561241 -1.00583 -0.116652
8 -1.12535 -1.57888 -0.671822
9 -1.4352 -1.92349 -0.946916
10 -1.45858 -1.99842 -0.918744
11 -1.21772 -1.80531 -0.630138
12 -0.780288 -1.3978 -0.162774
Return to Figure 4

Figure 4. Impulse Responses of Cyclical Unemployment Rate After 1988Q1, Panel B

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.90083 1.81638 1.98527
2 2.65622 2.41862 2.89382
3 3.23006 2.78934 3.67078
4 3.59797 2.92403 4.27191
5 3.7482 2.83012 4.66627
6 3.68168 2.52548 4.83788
7 3.41148 2.0366 4.78636
8 2.96154 1.39659 4.52649
9 2.36484 0.643052 4.08662
10 1.66117 -0.183922 3.50625
11 0.894615 -1.04355 2.83278
12 0.110893 -1.89593 2.11772
Return to Figure 4

Figure 5. Impulse Responses of Cyclical Employment up to 1991Q4, Panel A

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.77302 1.71533 1.83071
2 2.21719 2.06397 2.37041
3 2.28861 2.02695 2.55027
4 2.00376 1.64474 2.36278
5 1.43255 1.00465 1.86045
6 0.683667 0.221692 1.14564
7 -0.114947 -0.583611 0.353718
8 -0.837145 -1.30535 -0.368942
9 -1.37779 -1.86216 -0.893411
10 -1.66731 -2.19434 -1.14028
11 -1.6798 -2.26489 -1.09472
12 -1.43373 -2.07302 -0.794443
Return to Figure 5

Figure 5. Impulse Responses of Cyclical Employment After 1991Q4, Panel B

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.91386 1.8359 1.99183
2 2.7048 2.48376 2.92583
3 3.34298 2.92912 3.75684
4 3.8066 3.16679 4.44641
5 4.08247 3.20021 4.96474
6 4.16627 3.04053 5.29202
7 4.06235 2.70538 5.41931
8 3.78316 2.21755 5.34877
9 3.3484 1.60348 5.09331
10 2.78381 0.89195 4.67568
11 2.11981 0.112668 4.12695
12 1.38991 -0.704734 3.48455
Return to Figure 5

Figure 6. Industry Impulse Responses, Construction

period Pre 1991Q4 Post 1991Q4
0 1 1
1 1.831207 1.908561
2 2.412463 2.695087
3 2.694818 3.33534
4 2.664991 3.812055
5 2.344717 4.115242
6 1.786291 4.242198
7 1.065029 4.197223
8 0.2696476 3.991095
9 -0.5082573 3.6403
10 -1.184423 3.166097
11 -1.690727 2.593436
12 -1.981701 1.949795
Return to Figure 6

Figure 6. Industry Impulse Responses, Manufacturing

period Pre 1991Q4 Post 1991Q4
0 1 1
1 1.746211 1.846097
2 2.127622 2.497729
3 2.105915 2.930465
4 1.716489 3.136127
5 1.056475 3.121861
6 0.2628591 2.908299
7 -0.5146731 2.527032
8 -1.140987 2.01759
9 -1.518066 1.424196
10 -1.599294 0.7925004
11 -1.393608 0.1665227
12 -0.9595746 -0.4140318
Return to Figure 6

Figure 6. Industry Impulse Responses, Professional and Business Services

period Pre 1991Q4 Post 1991Q4
0 1 1
1 1.787752 1.898388
2 2.259978 2.654011
3 2.366803 3.235129
4 2.11574 3.620576
5 1.566903 3.800318
6 0.8207345 3.775417
7 0.000525 3.557413
8 -0.7673337 3.16721
9 -1.372294 2.633528
10 -1.735036 1.991033
11 -1.817239 1.278255
12 -1.624641 0.5354084
Return to Figure 6

Figure 6. Industry Impulse Responses, Trade and Transportation

period Pre 1991Q4 Post 1991Q4
0 1 1
1 1.809706 1.918789
2 2.338074 2.710229
3 2.535603 3.336214
4 2.398011 3.768446
5 1.963934 3.98965
6 1.307299 3.99417
7 0.5256977 3.787941
8 -0.2735303 3.387839
9 -0.9875677 2.820482
10 -1.53092 2.120553
11 -1.845202 1.328736
12 -1.904861 0.4894018
Return to Figure 6

Figure 6. Industry Impulse Responses, Leisure and Hospitality

period Pre 1991Q4 Post 1991Q4
0 1 1
1 1.794585 1.875021
2 2.294287 2.578536
3 2.455065 3.077596
4 2.280745 3.354033
5 1.818993 3.404653
6 1.151805 3.240499
7 0.3821738 2.885267
8 -0.3810122 2.37304
9 -1.037746 1.745515
10 -1.509412 1.048937
11 -1.747559 0.3309354
12 -1.738054 -0.3625214
Return to Figure 6

Figure 6. Industry Impulse Responses, Education and Health Services

period Pre 1991Q4 Post 1991Q4
0 1 1
1 1.749841 1.835144
2 2.169693 2.422812
3 2.235318 2.712108
4 1.975538 2.687696
5 1.462412 2.36953
6 0.7963096 1.808717
7 0.0885756 1.080192
8 -0.5555157 0.2731793
9 -1.051096 -0.5193933
10 -1.343591 -1.211299
11 -1.413229 -1.732113
12 -1.274104 -2.03407
Return to Figure 6

Figure 6. Industry Impulse Responses, Other Services

period Pre 1991Q4 Post 1991Q4
0 1 1
1 1.814409 1.699142
2 2.369531 2.072924
3 2.625419 2.138822
4 2.577578 1.946473
5 2.254706 1.565995
6 1.713019 1.07611
7 1.028044 0.5534953
8 0.2849497 0.0643436
9 -0.4314041 -0.3413039
10 -1.045623 -0.6323096
11 -1.499196 -0.7965081
12 -1.755518 -0.8385802
Return to Figure 6

Figure 6. Industry Impulse Responses, Financial Activities

period Pre 1991Q4 Post 1991Q4
0 1 1
1 1.884544 1.817403
2 2.600797 2.387688
3 3.109663 2.675983
4 3.387695 2.677968
5 3.427876 2.417709
6 3.23927 1.942897
7 2.845634 1.318178
8 2.283118 0.617391
9 1.597267 -0.0844361
10 0.8395386 -0.7185321
11 0.063611 -1.228581
12 -0.6782793 -1.575179
Return to Figure 6

Figure 7. Separation and Job Finding, Panel A

date Separations Job Finding
1948.25 0.028302 -2.040768
1948.5 -0.0155962 -1.911779
1948.75 0.3039423 -1.471455
1949 1.183017 -1.147242
1949.25 0.9157566 -0.0235441
1949.5 0.8151498 0.4638165
1949.75 0.9881898 0.067698
1950 -0.0631892 0.4703865
1950.25 -0.4989418 0.0021154
1950.5 -0.6635812 -0.5440419
1950.75 -0.8804823 -1.147242
1951 -1.17744 -1.618078
1951.25 -0.7076719 -2.183449
1951.5 -0.2981944 -2.325005
1951.75 -0.9497238 -1.9524
1952 -0.9207746 -2.246967
1952.25 -0.3476915 -2.555911
1952.5 -1.246458 -2.072373
1952.75 -1.332413 -2.37332
1953 -1.419828 -2.465956
1953.25 -1.157623 -2.596943
1953.5 -0.0832892 -2.376021
1953.75 0.853913 -1.543067
1954 0.3887683 -0.2185905
1954.25 0.4293608 0.0296272
1954.5 -0.5968908 0.7482388
1954.75 -0.2656161 -0.254607
1955 -1.106933 0.0877115
1955.25 -1.020092 -0.3603699
1955.5 -0.5841901 -0.8275499
1955.75 -0.9248747 -0.6061227
1956 -0.5224712 -0.9387177
1956.25 -0.5550635 -0.8928095
1956.5 -0.4419642 -1.061498
1956.75 -0.8055344 -0.8450334
1957 -0.7172549 -0.8971307
1957.25 -0.8880905 -0.550207
1957.5 -0.1177771 -0.6704738
1957.75 0.020591 0.3387234
1958 0.2774711 1.078827
1958.25 -0.13335 1.779906
1958.5 -0.4681706 1.633014
1958.75 -0.1990579 0.7452653
1959 -0.7770365 0.7087389
1959.25 -0.2479179 0.0434387
1959.5 -0.3933251 0.449766
1959.75 -0.1098566 -0.0081639
1960 -0.4121768 0.1809662
1960.25 0.3353058 -0.3234792
1960.5 0.2754944 0.2705199
1960.75 0.0333375 1.018922
1961 0.3695304 0.9452674
1961.25 -0.2896755 1.548936
1961.5 -0.2155003 1.103198
1961.75 -0.1234211 0.4995833
1962 -0.2788111 0.3800842
1962.25 -0.4984495 0.5853
1962.5 -0.3363858 0.4292279
1962.75 0.1684727 0.0816122
1963 -0.2327746 0.5137706
1963.25 -0.0840463 0.2166009
1963.5 -0.2649884 0.3810073
1963.75 -0.0680182 0.1367673
1964 -0.2120831 0.0859678
1964.25 -0.2992997 -0.0711016
1964.5 -0.4950029 0.0141337
1964.75 -0.3793518 -0.1732118
1965 -0.3598209 -0.3834919
1965.25 -0.4315837 -0.6402913
1965.5 -0.5265959 -0.8805456
1965.75 -1.045772 -0.692246
1966 -0.689411 -1.201134
1966.25 -0.3449819 -1.619329
1966.5 -0.358862 -1.691394
1966.75 -0.6491933 -1.310574
1967 -0.4745388 -1.430081
1967.25 -0.5593803 -1.366076
1967.5 -0.2508898 -1.55575
1967.75 -0.5885317 -1.348301
1968 -0.628781 -1.586064
1968.25 -0.6530825 -1.672853
1968.5 -0.4175062 -2.056307
1968.75 -0.7504194 -1.78432
1969 -0.7968292 -1.687074
1969.25 -0.28243 -2.007807
1969.5 -0.5977277 -1.63744
1969.75 0.154178 -1.809704
1970 0.1199412 -1.059406
1970.25 0.6565831 -1.061498
1970.5 0.8033104 -0.6410477
1970.75 0.6571077 -0.2243374
1971 0.4244241 0.0399824
1971.25 0.4083476 0.0946905
1971.5 0.4431852 0.0703039
1971.75 0.2888927 0.1095537
1972 0.3118008 -0.0405793
1972.25 0.2769062 -0.0862951
1972.5 0.2932576 -0.3089713
1972.75 0.0599137 -0.413633
1973 0.1256148 -0.6493644
1973.25 0.3966366 -1.017381
1973.5 0.4024265 -1.081679
1973.75 0.4028401 -0.8530269
1974 0.6379278 -0.9193998
1974.25 0.8010157 -0.7658845
1974.5 1.359993 -0.5923915
1974.75 1.900097 -0.0098748
1975 1.25986 1.284802
1975.25 0.8241695 1.724479
1975.5 0.9400145 1.430997
1975.75 0.6578941 1.43213
1976 0.7627497 1.093647
1976.25 0.8834849 0.997027
1976.5 0.947208 0.997027
1976.75 0.6814385 1.164098
1977 0.9379045 0.654917
1977.25 0.9726748 0.3902454
1977.5 0.8570671 0.3067826
1977.75 0.7085124 0.2076692
1978 0.5118901 0.1235813
1978.25 0.8005056 -0.2537916
1978.5 0.8511356 -0.3834919
1978.75 0.7359606 -0.3178421
1979 0.5652931 -0.2497106
1979.25 0.934427 -0.5740262
1979.5 0.9991208 -0.5486662
1979.75 1.097912 -0.4088858
1980 1.471213 -0.1148718
1980.25 1.227101 0.5757052
1980.5 1.068461 0.6930233
1980.75 0.9610695 0.7363567
1981 0.9538958 0.7373461
1981.25 1.007457 0.6851834
1981.5 1.522334 0.559435
1981.75 1.723269 0.8211169
1982 1.883801 1.030429
1982.25 1.618945 1.617731
1982.5 1.796182 1.809063
1982.75 1.306647 2.358878
1983 1.380881 2.125629
1983.25 0.9579785 2.221095
1983.5 1.249003 1.436661
1983.75 1.014556 1.186717
1984 0.8353278 1.013701
1984.25 0.8559318 0.8726519
1984.5 0.8349475 0.8090662
1984.75 0.9116403 0.6832256
1985 1.184674 0.4124849
1985.25 1.000225 0.5603902
1985.5 1.0493 0.4143428
1985.75 0.9219877 0.4797867
1986 0.9248513 0.5460745
1986.25 0.904772 0.515665
1986.5 0.7941261 0.4958065
1986.75 0.7037068 0.4273651
1987 0.5132385 0.3671809
1987.25 0.4409977 0.1791912
1987.5 0.475615 -0.02525
1987.75 0.4054569 -0.0862951
1988 0.010639 0.1121809
1988.25 0.4160484 -0.376327
1988.5 0.1352016 -0.1881071
1988.75 0.0984997 -0.2879429
1989 0.4650091 -0.6854987
1989.25 0.2142649 -0.4009638
1989.5 0.3801961 -0.4913399
1989.75 0.3876632 -0.5092258
1990 0.3688366 -0.4835439
1990.25 0.4825377 -0.3515722
1990.5 0.2740822 0.2255481
1990.75 0.5631569 0.3314056
1991 0.5067619 0.6578382
1991.25 0.450561 0.8030508
1991.5 0.5201113 0.8685911
1991.75 0.3372596 1.257368
1992 0.1028828 1.673201
1992.25 -0.087682 1.941106
1992.5 0.1612585 1.598984
1992.75 -0.1090957 1.687459
1993 0.2018165 1.258462
1993.25 -0.1941045 1.501665
1993.5 -0.161254 1.293612
1993.75 -0.1090957 1.153361
1994 -0.5459433 1.363522
1994.25 -0.1130539 0.7048055
1994.5 -0.4496005 0.7591547
1994.75 -0.5695231 0.6597869
1995 -0.28243 0.4507017
1995.25 -0.4854975 0.7077551
1995.5 -0.3217731 0.4844935
1995.75 -0.2438546 0.3616604
1996 -0.4073365 0.4638165
1996.25 -0.6133149 0.5080912
1996.5 -0.6107976 0.4610035
1996.75 -0.6286126 0.4441568
1997 -0.6200336 0.2336144
1997.25 -0.8441882 0.2804667
1997.5 -1.028638 0.2849945
1997.75 -0.7119479 -0.134949
1998 -0.5598787 -0.4757356
1998.25 -0.2610681 -0.7710516
1998.5 -0.6434495 -0.4294265
1998.75 -0.4255921 -0.8019454
1999 -0.6928192 -0.623615
1999.25 -0.5328717 -0.7982776
1999.5 -0.6254146 -0.8552048
1999.75 -0.4186374 -1.163674
2000 -0.538659 -1.144499
2000.25 -0.5325411 -1.119049
2000.5 -0.806057 -0.9165317
2000.75 -0.5338632 -0.9508433
2001 -0.4095947 -0.7975435
2001.25 0.0509224 -0.8573817
2001.5 -0.1335027 -0.016714
2001.75 -0.31876 0.5204048
2002 -0.0849547 0.4255025
2002.25 -0.7822378 1.10426
2002.5 -0.456109 0.810069
2002.75 -0.7888335 1.196442
2003 -0.5563914 1.131955
2003.25 -0.9770352 1.618905
2003.5 -1.016097 1.483335
2003.75 -1.02791 1.313489
2004 -1.470341 1.650705
2004.25 -0.982082 1.031476
2004.5 -0.7895284 0.7541898
2004.75 -1.072131 0.9524824
2005 -1.241335 0.9690121
2005.25 -1.015189 0.5805007
2005.5 -1.193574 0.690082
2005.75 -1.043946 0.3671809
2006 -1.22146 0.3985737
2006.25 -1.107672 0.2533841
2006.5 -1.211833 0.2067767
2006.75 -1.207121 0.1676665
2007 -1.599042 0.5689995
2007.25 -1.540617 0.6383947
2007.5 -1.399643 0.6754006
2007.75 -1.417472 0.8564288
2008 -1.073599 0.8160926
2008.25 -0.8405028 1.160874
2008.5 -0.666294 1.701758
2008.75 -0.5020617 2.406551
2009 -0.4818968 3.162889
2009.25 -1.064612 4.158427
2009.5 -1.051252 4.352483
2009.75 -1.198274 4.479897
2010 -1.35951 4.552071
2010.25 -1.391044 4.549995
2010.5 -1.429065 4.583315
Return to Figure 7

Figure 7. Separation and Job Finding, Cyclical Contributions, Panel B

date Cyclical Separations Cyclical Job Finding
1951.25 -0.4564101 -0.6715719
1951.5 -0.2367958 -0.8739176
1951.75 -0.0754376 -0.89851
1952 -0.0972117 -0.8039736
1952.25 -0.3310953 -0.735181
1952.5 -0.6630435 -0.8140813
1952.75 -0.8699191 -1.03913
1953 -0.7496825 -1.250461
1953.25 -0.2553867 -1.231107
1953.5 0.436536 -0.8397002
1953.75 1.003134 -0.1174092
1954 1.183808 0.6958158
1954.25 0.9242265 1.294016
1954.5 0.3819734 1.477421
1954.75 -0.1811407 1.24807
1955 -0.5107034 0.7568531
1955.25 -0.5281519 0.2378572
1955.5 -0.3386558 -0.1327399
1955.75 -0.1135778 -0.3161111
1956 -0.0063317 -0.3806118
1956.25 -0.0611803 -0.4499615
1956.5 -0.2218201 -0.5947164
1956.75 -0.3626775 -0.7889948
1957 -0.3650068 -0.8950148
1957.25 -0.1685542 -0.7609811
1957.5 0.1322522 -0.3016677
1957.75 0.3903071 0.3583712
1958 0.4584581 0.9772638
1958.25 0.312697 1.29747
1958.5 0.0580009 1.202561
1958.75 -0.1818621 0.8072916
1959 -0.3006651 0.3213777
1959.25 -0.2746851 -0.0856432
1959.5 -0.1475192 -0.359258
1959.75 0.0055413 -0.5079743
1960 0.1405301 -0.5446999
1960.25 0.2519426 -0.4484466
1960.5 0.3308758 -0.1887865
1960.75 0.3437107 0.1936558
1961 0.2649767 0.5516987
1961.25 0.1135972 0.7132693
1961.5 -0.0459727 0.6061324
1961.75 -0.146126 0.3177819
1962 -0.1703585 0.0434273
1962.25 -0.1218314 -0.0787189
1962.5 -0.0386818 -0.0275961
1962.75 0.051614 0.0921852
1963 0.1297919 0.1711691
1963.25 0.1686684 0.1811209
1963.5 0.1420715 0.1707184
1963.75 0.077329 0.1742929
1964 0.0326866 0.1843362
1964.25 0.0239455 0.1984703
1964.5 0.0409353 0.1981878
1964.75 0.0349314 0.1833895
1965 -0.0243996 0.1545602
1965.25 -0.1216048 0.0961197
1965.5 -0.2062772 -0.0141635
1965.75 -0.2352953 -0.1646171
1966 -0.1913529 -0.3186798
1966.25 -0.0920707 -0.4275643
1966.5 0.0063037 -0.4357195
1966.75 0.0608898 -0.3399175
1967 0.0440926 -0.184851
1967.25 -0.0150901 -0.0600766
1967.5 -0.0812046 -0.0252484
1967.75 -0.1286785 -0.0992401
1968 -0.1653285 -0.2424309
1968.25 -0.2194219 -0.3882957
1968.5 -0.3096309 -0.4905322
1968.75 -0.414895 -0.5482732
1969 -0.4684503 -0.5932136
1969.25 -0.4193888 -0.6261063
1969.5 -0.2512684 -0.6138098
1969.75 0.0155862 -0.5170929
1970 0.3180832 -0.3231483
1970.25 0.5454977 -0.0390943
1970.5 0.6140699 0.2882674
1970.75 0.5205601 0.5780506
1971 0.3456222 0.753244
1971.25 0.1811179 0.8007326
1971.5 0.068868 0.7557073
1971.75 -0.0196946 0.6661728
1972 -0.1099958 0.5286089
1972.25 -0.1880605 0.3140981
1972.5 -0.2507073 0.0482776
1972.75 -0.2936978 -0.2213867
1973 -0.3289998 -0.4564931
1973.25 -0.3563583 -0.6603429
1973.5 -0.3467112 -0.8496536
1973.75 -0.2405136 -1.017969
1974 0.0032883 -1.096119
1974.25 0.3312052 -0.9588196
1974.5 0.6100017 -0.5368315
1974.75 0.7059512 0.0963667
1975 0.5793172 0.7334087
1975.25 0.3031497 1.152182
1975.5 0.0136997 1.247257
1975.75 -0.1592323 1.076885
1976 -0.1617051 0.8052292
1976.25 -0.0504721 0.5946078
1976.5 0.0540471 0.5106556
1976.75 0.0780816 0.4857705
1977 0.0216307 0.4026192
1977.25 -0.067528 0.2062484
1977.5 -0.1263154 -0.0599775
1977.75 -0.1409642 -0.2857487
1978 -0.1434141 -0.4008555
1978.25 -0.1543839 -0.4359706
1978.5 -0.1825095 -0.4642352
1978.75 -0.2263027 -0.5357665
1979 -0.2374537 -0.6598201
1979.25 -0.1663531 -0.7778267
1979.5 -0.0139931 -0.8013704
1979.75 0.1466569 -0.6677923
1980 0.2246528 -0.3975354
1980.25 0.151263 -0.0743151
1980.5 -0.0398704 0.1694314
1980.75 -0.2282226 0.2363562
1981 -0.2668559 0.1130935
1981.25 -0.0952911 -0.1023269
1981.5 0.2066487 -0.2449911
1981.75 0.485148 -0.1837202
1982 0.6104154 0.1069444
1982.25 0.5498608 0.5339963
1982.5 0.3689427 0.934983
1982.75 0.1748487 1.155876
1983 0.0440113 1.116701
1983.25 -0.0289626 0.8522313
1983.5 -0.0833758 0.4806004
1983.75 -0.1463847 0.1461673
1984 -0.206815 -0.0622547
1984.25 -0.2229753 -0.1493962
1984.5 -0.1667929 -0.176859
1984.75 -0.0586072 -0.2024495
1985 0.0613864 -0.2483768
1985.25 0.1528311 -0.2825984
1985.5 0.1907428 -0.2527147
1985.75 0.1845459 -0.1462388
1986 0.1591929 0.0019801
1986.25 0.1245623 0.1368405
1986.5 0.0916311 0.1956607
1986.75 0.0447576 0.175974
1987 -0.0182723 0.1092917
1987.25 -0.0866814 0.0344682
1987.5 -0.150809 -0.0268502
1987.75 -0.2009363 -0.0803628
1988 -0.2389321 -0.1342317
1988.25 -0.2601975 -0.1967657
1988.5 -0.2498181 -0.2741082
1988.75 -0.2034045 -0.365281
1989 -0.1267843 -0.4748718
1989.25 -0.0415452 -0.5982794
1989.5 0.0212521 -0.6990306
1989.75 0.0452396 -0.723264
1990 0.0482832 -0.6449992
1990.25 0.061936 -0.4804744
1990.5 0.1184523 -0.2909904
1990.75 0.203561 -0.1235393
1991 0.2774299 0.0078795
1991.25 0.3018437 0.1316964
1991.5 0.2370656 0.3116371
1991.75 0.1177066 0.5390623
1992 0.0058771 0.7455429
1992.25 -0.0585424 0.8489231
1992.5 -0.053927 0.7941341
1992.75 -0.0126986 0.6259635
1993 0.0169735 0.4458797
1993.25 0.0118338 0.3295147
1993.5 -0.0251613 0.2801232
1993.75 -0.0722207 0.2349763
1994 -0.1152857 0.1424723
1994.25 -0.1408277 0.0028111
1994.5 -0.1319497 -0.1394409
1994.75 -0.0896348 -0.2228165
1995 -0.0310687 -0.2179225
1995.25 0.0251521 -0.1483515
1995.5 0.0648223 -0.0674802
1995.75 0.0807734 -0.0098227
1996 0.0699474 0.0305211
1996.25 0.028013 0.0813923
1996.5 -0.0454103 0.1604989
1996.75 -0.1421312 0.2577508
1997 -0.2416063 0.3331959
1997.25 -0.2897678 0.3224649
1997.5 -0.2557558 0.2082404
1997.75 -0.1378784 0.0209982
1998 0.007784 -0.1629598
1998.25 0.0953128 -0.2646933
1998.5 0.0849412 -0.2713617
1998.75 0.0153007 -0.2451559
1999 -0.0461417 -0.2540524
1999.25 -0.0517911 -0.3325597
1999.5 -0.0063303 -0.4677189
1999.75 0.0174265 -0.5969549
2000 -0.0250699 -0.6842638
2000.25 -0.1084235 -0.7279015
2000.5 -0.1328312 -0.7558738
2000.75 -0.0275832 -0.7579443
2001 0.1835012 -0.6850788
2001.25 0.3972433 -0.4964363
2001.5 0.4842594 -0.1905276
2001.75 0.4155723 0.1422593
2002 0.2623485 0.3930594
2002.25 0.129763 0.5100543
2002.5 0.0666158 0.5351655
2002.75 0.0498662 0.5532117
2003 0.0090004 0.6297173
2003.25 -0.0882017 0.7391742
2003.5 -0.2115936 0.7973522
2003.75 -0.2834966 0.7307313
2004 -0.2555773 0.5411568
2004.25 -0.1406215 0.2988303
2004.5 -0.0202917 0.106236
2004.75 0.0372892 0.0043098
2005 0.0215595 -0.035339
2005.25 -0.0366599 -0.0676563
2005.5 -0.0669958 -0.166472
2005.75 -0.0459626 -0.3457425
2006 -0.0023544 -0.5631569
2006.25 0.0062014 -0.7435634
2006.5 -0.0502532 -0.8345696
2006.75 -0.1749945 -0.8174565
2007 -0.3231237 -0.7421082
2007.25 -0.4114377 -0.7112858
2007.5 -0.3847029 -0.7809134
Return to Figure 7

Figure 8. Impulse Responses of Separations Contribution up to 1988Q1, Panel A

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.6226 1.55732 1.68787
2 1.72886 1.56827 1.88946
3 1.33849 1.09291 1.58406
4 0.609006 0.316687 0.901325
5 -0.221764 -0.521282 0.077753
6 -0.910349 -1.20797 -0.612728
7 -1.27666 -1.60205 -0.951282
8 -1.24859 -1.62899 -0.8682
9 -0.871913 -1.30058 -0.443244
10 -0.286088 -0.735196 0.16302
11 0.323968 -0.122767 0.770703
12 0.78428 0.340533 1.22803
Return to Figure 8

Figure 8. Impulse Responses of Separations Contribution After 1988Q1, Panel B

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.66396 1.54646 1.78146
2 1.88689 1.59851 2.17527
3 1.67231 1.22494 2.11968
4 1.11866 0.567191 1.67013
5 0.386643 -0.208178 0.981464
6 -0.343157 -0.951903 0.265588
7 -0.91197 -1.54842 -0.275521
8 -1.21486 -1.90506 -0.524665
9 -1.21724 -1.96266 -0.471816
10 -0.954085 -1.73236 -0.17581
11 -0.51411 -1.30401 0.275791
12 -0.014077 -0.814022 0.785868
Return to Figure 8

Figure 9. Impulse Responses of Job Finding Contribution up to 1988Q1, Panel A

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.74173 1.67913 1.80433
2 2.12242 1.95941 2.28543
3 2.1096 1.83776 2.38144
4 1.74037 1.37741 2.10334
5 1.10896 0.688707 1.52922
6 0.345665 -0.096548 0.787878
7 -0.40845 -0.851664 0.034764
8 -1.02639 -1.47443 -0.578348
9 -1.41551 -1.89097 -0.940046
10 -1.53018 -2.05291 -1.00744
11 -1.37533 -1.94741 -0.803247
12 -1.00113 -1.60894 -0.393321
Return to Figure 9

Figure 9. Impulse Responses of Job Finding Contribution After 1988Q1, Panel B

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.85232 1.75363 1.951
2 2.51479 2.24426 2.78531
3 2.96092 2.47278 3.44906
4 3.18028 2.45517 3.9054
5 3.17783 2.21947 4.13619
6 2.97228 1.8025 4.14206
7 2.59379 1.24653 3.94105
8 2.08104 0.596175 3.56591
9 1.47809 -0.10426 3.06043
10 0.831043 -0.812942 2.47503
11 0.184996 -1.49208 1.86208
12 -0.418805 -2.10904 1.27143
Return to Figure 9

Figure 10. Decomposing the Change in the IRF for Unemployment

period Pre 1988 Post 1988 Post 1988 Separations only Post 1988 Job Finding only
0 1 1 1 1
1 1.693709 1.770493 1.710496 1.753107
2 1.961697 2.245869 2.031806 2.173768
3 1.791937 2.412872 1.947203 2.253684
4 1.271256 2.304867 1.516674 2.053675
5 0.5541821 1.988645 0.8571171 1.678898
6 -0.1807359 1.547333 0.114272 1.245878
7 -0.7749962 1.063274 -0.5674196 0.8512296
8 -1.123769 0.6041753 -1.07117 0.5504237
9 -1.192162 0.2146632 -1.325992 0.3512831
10 -1.012475 -0.0859796 -1.314276 0.2222236
11 -0.665824 -0.300537 -1.068681 0.1110726
12 -0.2550145 -0.4466985 -0.6602278 -0.0322911
Return to Figure 10

Figure 11. Unemployment by Reason, Panel A

Date Job Loser Other
1970 -0.2441798 -0.1524654
1970.25 0.0824711 -0.0320465
1970.5 0.4088602 0.1018979
1970.75 0.6376257 0.2221344
1971 0.7154672 0.303923
1971.25 0.6597832 0.3403581
1971.5 0.5474812 0.3330234
1971.75 0.4314368 0.2908544
1972 0.3005138 0.2237031
1972.25 0.1073728 0.1425725
1972.5 -0.1486149 0.0639966
1972.75 -0.4030146 -0.0115859
1973 -0.5902727 -0.0978637
1973.25 -0.7110955 -0.2029664
1973.5 -0.8279486 -0.3133513
1973.75 -0.9681601 -0.3957029
1974 -1.055791 -0.4063476
1974.25 -0.9236566 -0.318978
1974.5 -0.4538176 -0.1448434
1974.75 0.2873068 0.0592431
1975 1.05359 0.2147719
1975.25 1.548549 0.2738127
1975.5 1.600888 0.2463198
1975.75 1.268584 0.1875487
1976 0.7975143 0.1622616
1976.25 0.4470546 0.1998119
1976.5 0.3228255 0.2752871
1976.75 0.3340754 0.3369575
1977 0.3088118 0.3414886
1977.25 0.1291008 0.2760932
1977.5 -0.1773371 0.1623623
1977.75 -0.4682274 0.0471024
1978 -0.6209177 -0.0341174
1978.25 -0.642507 -0.0788165
1978.5 -0.6309168 -0.0990848
1978.75 -0.6774899 -0.1174727
1979 -0.7991768 -0.1628831
1979.25 -0.9095141 -0.2305382
1979.5 -0.8871391 -0.2838274
1979.75 -0.6715478 -0.2935632
1980 -0.3188667 -0.2568178
1980.25 0.0267764 -0.1930164
1980.5 0.196176 -0.1268998
1980.75 0.1123841 -0.0752576
1981 -0.1432253 -0.0444164
1981.25 -0.3733741 -0.0253743
1981.5 -0.3821339 -0.0012967
1981.75 -0.0881073 0.0417432
1982 0.4447135 0.115216
1982.25 1.049339 0.2115743
1982.5 1.541313 0.3045559
1982.75 1.777375 0.3657549
1983 1.704424 0.3687376
1983.25 1.353521 0.3008691
1983.5 0.8174118 0.1729895
1983.75 0.2443663 0.0296883
1984 -0.2112352 -0.075659
1984.25 -0.4626721 -0.1155166
1984.5 -0.5196174 -0.0947789
1984.75 -0.4594679 -0.0444966
1985 -0.3746305 -0.0052867
1985.25 -0.3100842 0.0092378
1985.5 -0.2559877 0.0190119
1985.75 -0.1824926 0.0477621
1986 -0.0808225 0.0998949
1986.25 0.0381955 0.1509342
1986.5 0.1318952 0.1684037
1986.75 0.1554911 0.1393003
1987 0.1012539 0.0745042
1987.25 -0.0007184 0.0035332
1987.5 -0.1073904 -0.0513076
1987.75 -0.1926382 -0.0903538
1988 -0.2550726 -0.1220783
1988.25 -0.3085792 -0.1523642
1988.5 -0.3587618 -0.1790663
1988.75 -0.4070083 -0.1874458
1989 -0.4517764 -0.1771556
1989.25 -0.4998071 -0.1609648
1989.5 -0.5541663 -0.1568707
1989.75 -0.5906923 -0.1690112
1990 -0.5714995 -0.1793037
1990.25 -0.470353 -0.1662746
1990.5 -0.2947332 -0.1194792
1990.75 -0.0785438 -0.0516937
1991 0.1377064 0.0045387
1991.25 0.3313992 0.0267171
1991.5 0.4955234 0.0333291
1991.75 0.6235051 0.0602634
1992 0.7126465 0.1244329
1992.25 0.7550784 0.1976919
1992.5 0.7422323 0.2242454
1992.75 0.6743611 0.1801513
1993 0.5643485 0.0947808
1993.25 0.4335085 0.02775
1993.5 0.2951742 0.0232157
1993.75 0.1469213 0.0710681
1994 -0.0210409 0.1201066
1994.25 -0.1974846 0.1250343
1994.5 -0.3360394 0.0757705
1994.75 -0.3873495 0.0041473
1995 -0.3385401 -0.0459332
1995.25 -0.2246264 -0.0511234
1995.5 -0.1035924 -0.019607
1995.75 -0.019469 0.0158172
1996 0.0162133 0.0382357
1996.25 0.0182829 0.0515242
1996.5 0.0024784 0.0684845
1996.75 -0.0190558 0.0935369
1997 -0.0372355 0.1097195
1997.25 -0.0480493 0.089186
1997.5 -0.0504057 0.0286044
1997.75 -0.0540409 -0.0423132
1998 -0.0609452 -0.0869321
1998.25 -0.0709457 -0.0941648
1998.5 -0.0832689 -0.0823469
1998.75 -0.1036615 -0.076702
1999 -0.1439264 -0.0837119
1999.25 -0.1997274 -0.0968159
1999.5 -0.2643581 -0.1038539
1999.75 -0.3314525 -0.1036438
2000 -0.407417 -0.1115534
2000.25 -0.4906484 -0.143398
2000.5 -0.5553562 -0.1963205
2000.75 -0.5513911 -0.2413051
2001 -0.4351772 -0.2399543
2001.25 -0.2080344 -0.1786112
2001.5 0.0723826 -0.0750139
2001.75 0.3160768 0.0287782
2002 0.4570875 0.0948129
2002.25 0.4967189 0.1114682
2002.5 0.4885091 0.0963872
2002.75 0.4880139 0.080542
2003 0.5143597 0.0844458
2003.25 0.5362322 0.1090698
2003.5 0.5063592 0.132469
2003.75 0.4051968 0.1326264
2004 0.2585361 0.1130912
2004.25 0.1139258 0.0902083
2004.5 0.0094471 0.0826641
2004.75 -0.0506601 0.0901205
2005 -0.0949589 0.0974837
2005.25 -0.1440901 0.0869275
2005.5 -0.2056591 0.0487037
2005.75 -0.2842494 -0.0086402
2006 -0.3909146 -0.0664662
2006.25 -0.5267071 -0.1177643
2006.5 -0.6657168 -0.1694514
2006.75 -0.7669531 -0.2283138
2007 -0.810724 -0.2960343
2007.25 -0.8281789 -0.3614356
2007.5 -0.8864881 -0.4044073
2007.75 -1.013099 -0.4009554
Return to Figure 11

Figure 11. Unemployment by Reason, Panel B

Date Permanent Job loser Temporary Job loser
1970 -0.2540082 0.0098332
1970.25 -0.0651537 0.1476347
1970.5 0.1523121 0.2565592
1970.75 0.3337503 0.3038834
1971 0.4296423 0.2858277
1971.25 0.4360895 0.2236919
1971.5 0.3938626 0.1536148
1971.75 0.3385574 0.0928764
1972 0.272526 0.0279869
1972.25 0.1712324 -0.0638594
1972.5 0.0259667 -0.1745823
1972.75 -0.140867 -0.26215
1973 -0.2927127 -0.2975625
1973.25 -0.4136709 -0.2974257
1973.5 -0.5121799 -0.3157683
1973.75 -0.5946773 -0.3734821
1974 -0.6371837 -0.418608
1974.25 -0.576813 -0.3468473
1974.5 -0.3605331 -0.0932891
1974.75 -0.0052004 0.2925043
1975 0.3916088 0.6619815
1975.25 0.6959426 0.8526108
1975.5 0.8133338 0.7875591
1975.75 0.7454243 0.5231627
1976 0.5845065 0.2130076
1976.25 0.4437374 0.0033151
1976.5 0.3763936 -0.0535695
1976.75 0.3506462 -0.0165701
1977 0.3001876 0.0086264
1977.25 0.1808644 -0.0517618
1977.5 0.007339 -0.1846762
1977.75 -0.1630525 -0.3051766
1978 -0.2792107 -0.3417083
1978.25 -0.338553 -0.3039534
1978.5 -0.3734459 -0.2574687
1978.75 -0.4220614 -0.255426
1979 -0.4957121 -0.3034637
1979.25 -0.5691906 -0.3403244
1979.5 -0.5903737 -0.2967676
1979.75 -0.5211914 -0.150358
1980 -0.3755558 0.056689
1980.25 -0.2063776 0.2331548
1980.5 -0.0876672 0.2838435
1980.75 -0.0691096 0.1814926
1981 -0.138657 -0.0045705
1981.25 -0.2230919 -0.1502847
1981.5 -0.2312571 -0.1508786
1981.75 -0.1029026 0.0147944
1982 0.1660974 0.2786165
1982.25 0.5243263 0.5250139
1982.5 0.8811768 0.6601383
1982.75 1.130658 0.6467189
1983 1.196715 0.5077107
1983.25 1.053824 0.2996961
1983.5 0.7386895 0.0787206
1983.75 0.3488992 -0.104535
1984 0.0018928 -0.2131293
1984.25 -0.2189756 -0.2436966
1984.5 -0.2986852 -0.2209315
1984.75 -0.284068 -0.1753986
1985 -0.2407096 -0.1339198
1985.25 -0.2095971 -0.1004864
1985.5 -0.1881635 -0.0678237
1985.75 -0.146509 -0.0359825
1986 -0.0716232 -0.0091976
1986.25 0.0253956 0.0128014
1986.5 0.1087798 0.0231157
1986.75 0.1399567 0.0155333
1987 0.107919 -0.0066667
1987.25 0.0339604 -0.0346795
1987.5 -0.0491416 -0.0582483
1987.75 -0.1192291 -0.0734082
1988 -0.1723938 -0.0826786
1988.25 -0.2145036 -0.0940771
1988.5 -0.2506966 -0.1080682
1988.75 -0.2878931 -0.1191185
1989 -0.3277997 -0.1239789
1989.25 -0.3762935 -0.1235137
1989.5 -0.4337388 -0.1204253
1989.75 -0.4786921 -0.111997
1990 -0.4835829 -0.087914
1990.25 -0.4306177 -0.0397342
1990.5 -0.3207216 0.0259884
1990.75 -0.1695005 0.0909563
1991 0.0028127 0.1348937
1991.25 0.1815372 0.1498623
1991.5 0.3524048 0.1431192
1991.75 0.4982537 0.1252523
1992 0.6055357 0.107112
1992.25 0.6636979 0.0913819
1992.5 0.6661373 0.076096
1992.75 0.6147769 0.059584
1993 0.5219133 0.0424331
1993.25 0.4083074 0.0251976
1993.5 0.2877548 0.0074154
1993.75 0.1613474 -0.0144294
1994 0.0234048 -0.044448
1994.25 -0.1193516 -0.0781343
1994.5 -0.2379268 -0.0981135
1994.75 -0.3001836 -0.0871666
1995 -0.2902101 -0.0483304
1995.25 -0.2253217 0.0006984
1995.5 -0.1425639 0.0389803
1995.75 -0.0722861 0.0528187
1996 -0.0308917 0.0470929
1996.25 -0.0169219 0.0351866
1996.5 -0.0217438 0.0242058
1996.75 -0.0333533 0.0142912
1997 -0.0423835 0.0051487
1997.25 -0.0435558 -0.004512
1997.5 -0.0359984 -0.014458
1997.75 -0.0290482 -0.025076
1998 -0.0274462 -0.0335865
1998.25 -0.0326775 -0.0383227
1998.5 -0.0450905 -0.0381691
1998.75 -0.0684016 -0.0351822
1999 -0.1087673 -0.0350483
1999.25 -0.1586961 -0.0409368
1999.5 -0.2105301 -0.0537788
1999.75 -0.2627677 -0.0686791
2000 -0.3275706 -0.079865
2000.25 -0.4078433 -0.0828179
2000.5 -0.4828878 -0.0724525
2000.75 -0.5072352 -0.0441029
2001 -0.432743 -0.0023519
2001.25 -0.249727 0.0417969
2001.5 -0.0038697 0.0763839
2001.75 0.2264234 0.0897897
2002 0.3745027 0.0826868
2002.25 0.4302682 0.0664853
2002.5 0.4331118 0.0553322
2002.75 0.4328663 0.054989
2003 0.4512887 0.0628767
2003.25 0.4676709 0.0683945
2003.5 0.4460758 0.0602072
2003.75 0.3683418 0.0368878
2004 0.2520001 0.0066337
2004.25 0.1327873 -0.0187711
2004.5 0.0413086 -0.0318261
2004.75 -0.0166405 -0.03406
2005 -0.0606891 -0.0343651
2005.25 -0.1062184 -0.0379737
2005.5 -0.1598966 -0.0458377
2005.75 -0.2273315 -0.056942
2006 -0.3235953 -0.0672957
2006.25 -0.4530081 -0.0736486
2006.5 -0.5875214 -0.0781415
2006.75 -0.685809 -0.0811094
2007 -0.7282602 -0.0824802
2007.25 -0.7413417 -0.0869335
2007.5 -0.7894414 -0.0972109
2007.75 -0.9029958 -0.1102951
Return to Figure 11

Figure 12. Impulse Responses of Job Loser Unemployment up to 1988Q1, Panel A

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.75795 1.6658 1.8501
2 2.18149 1.93943 2.42355
3 2.23713 1.82761 2.64665
4 1.94999 1.39205 2.50792
5 1.39463 0.732326 2.05694
6 0.679328 -0.035392 1.39405
7 -0.073371 -0.799819 0.653077
8 -0.746433 -1.47115 -0.021712
9 -1.24551 -1.98567 -0.505343
10 -1.5111 -2.29788 -0.724321
11 -1.52439 -2.3782 -0.670581
12 -1.30635 -2.22569 -0.387005
Return to Figure 12

Figure 12. Impulse Responses of Job Loser Unemployment After 1988Q1, Panel B

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.91237 1.83466 1.99008
2 2.6894 2.4684 2.9104
3 3.29243 2.87804 3.70682
4 3.69367 3.05316 4.33418
5 3.8774 2.99578 4.75903
6 3.84047 2.71941 4.96154
7 3.59204 2.24757 4.93651
8 3.15268 1.61187 4.69348
9 2.55288 0.849835 4.25593
10 1.83105 0.002475 3.65962
11 1.03108 -0.888065 2.95023
12 0.199813 -1.78077 2.1804
Return to Figure 12

Figure 13. Impulse Responses of Other Unemployment up to 1988Q1

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.77904 1.69232 1.86575
2 2.25359 2.02274 2.48445
3 2.38785 1.98992 2.78578
4 2.1942 1.63898 2.74942
5 1.72733 1.04956 2.4051
6 1.07324 0.320457 1.82602
7 0.335087 -0.44691 1.11708
8 -0.381994 -1.16349 0.399498
9 -0.98497 -1.76223 -0.207714
10 -1.40416 -2.19812 -0.610197
11 -1.60037 -2.44094 -0.759798
12 -1.56739 -2.47402 -0.660767
Return to Figure 13

Figure 13. Impulse Responses of Other Unemployment After 1988Q1

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.78251 1.65884 1.90618
2 2.30806 1.98852 2.62759
3 2.56463 2.02304 3.10622
4 2.56513 1.81 3.32025
5 2.34297 1.40332 3.28263
6 1.94655 0.858032 3.03507
7 1.43304 0.227892 2.63819
8 0.86231 -0.434584 2.1592
9 0.291356 -1.07726 1.65997
10 -0.230246 -1.64947 1.18898
11 -0.663686 -2.10648 0.779107
12 -0.982878 -2.41597 0.450216
Return to Figure 13

Figure 14. Decomposing the Change in the IRF for Unemployment

period Pre 1988 Post 1988 Post 1988 Job Finding only Post 1988 Separations only Post 1988 Relative variance only
0 1 1 1 1 1
1 1.763056 1.866675 1.86374 1.770186 1.767251
2 2.199504 2.556728 2.531202 2.23958 2.214055
3 2.275615 3.041915 2.96537 2.382894 2.306348
4 2.013407 3.309278 3.153484 2.219452 2.063658
5 1.482316 3.360362 3.105594 1.80616 1.551393
6 0.7846609 3.209614 2.850862 1.226026 0.8672737
7 0.0376396 2.882162 2.4323 0.5742629 0.1244012
8 -0.6452038 2.411204 1.900746 -0.0558557 -0.5663137
9 -1.170258 1.835211 1.308838 -0.5853963 -1.111769
10 -1.475695 1.195153 0.7057119 -0.9588455 -1.448286
11 -1.537554 0.531907 0.132925 -1.148941 -1.547923
12 -1.369715 -0.1160179 -0.378089 -1.157015 -1.419086
Return to Figure 14

Figure 15. Average Duratin of Temporary Layoff Unemployment

year duration before 1994 duration after 1994
1976   13.4933
1977   10.464
1978   8.22248
1979   7.71689
1980   9.98723
1981   11.4491
1982   12.5415
1983   16.8319
1984   13.5849
1985   10.5053
1986   10.4881
1987   9.87615
1988   9.40588
1989   8.33318
1990   8.41398
1991   9.99687
1992   12.6736
1993   12.2137
1994 8.511041  
1995 7.377604  
1996 8.239291  
1997 8.293144  
1998 7.324324  
1999 8.063466  
2000 8.086696  
2001 7.657451  
2002 8.231357  
2003 9.302655  
2004 8.932881  
2005 8.114184  
2006 8.459536  
2007 7.123587  
2008 7.502759  
2009 9.678572  
Return to Figure 15

Figure 16. Missclassification Share

year Missclassification share Unemployment rate
1976 24 7.694167
1977 19 7.041667
1978 10 6.053333
1979 8 5.845833
1980 21 7.168334
1981 18 7.614167
1982 18 9.715834
1983 23 9.595
1984 16 7.514167
1985 13 7.199167
1986 14 6.998333
1987 13 6.186666
1988 14 5.504167
1989 8 5.2675
1990 8 5.610833
1991 14 6.8375
1992 19 7.501667
1993 19 6.91
Return to Figure 16

Figure 17. Layoff Unemplolyment Adjusted for Missclassification, Panel A

date Temporary Layoff Rate Adjusted Temporary Layoff Rate
1967 0.4841168 0.4637057
1967.25 0.5424097 0.5195408
1967.5 0.5553796 0.5319639
1967.75 0.4742886 0.4542918
1968 0.4614024 0.4449439
1968.25 0.4131489 0.3984116
1968.5 0.4115999 0.3969178
1968.75 0.3927016 0.3786936
1969 0.3789343 0.3658369
1969.25 0.4039842 0.390021
1969.5 0.439926 0.4247205
1969.75 0.4727627 0.4564223
1970 0.6284758 0.5851118
1970.25 0.8001816 0.7449701
1970.5 0.898145 0.8361741
1970.75 1.058313 0.9852905
1971 0.89592 0.8125731
1971.25 0.8439634 0.76545
1971.5 0.8906611 0.8078034
1971.75 0.8579667 0.7781506
1972 0.7172536 0.6567636
1972.25 0.6854049 0.6276008
1972.5 0.6742911 0.6174242
1972.75 0.5839749 0.534725
1973 0.5474204 0.511037
1973.25 0.5292607 0.4940842
1973.5 0.4997211 0.4665079
1973.75 0.5210921 0.4864585
1974 0.7277383 0.6660765
1974.25 0.6726066 0.6156162
1974.5 0.7551733 0.6911869
1974.75 1.120242 1.025323
1975 1.74688 1.466625
1975.25 2.127421 1.786116
1975.5 1.797202 1.508874
1975.75 1.516292 1.273031
1976 1.069974 0.8601632
1976.25 1.111045 0.8931804
1976.5 1.131166 0.9093553
1976.75 1.06074 0.8527398
1977 0.9556206 0.8151729
1977.25 0.8480587 0.7234194
1977.5 0.8675587 0.7400535
1977.75 0.7817018 0.6668149
1978 0.7357976 0.679844
1978.25 0.6385671 0.5900074
1978.5 0.6782525 0.6266748
1978.75 0.6976924 0.6446365
1979 0.7929165 0.7460508
1979.25 0.7332714 0.689931
1979.5 0.8129818 0.7649301
1979.75 0.897822 0.8447559
1980 1.081948 0.902643
1980.25 1.58445 1.321868
1980.5 1.683143 1.404205
1980.75 1.357635 1.132642
1981 1.236677 1.064152
1981.25 1.225562 1.054588
1981.5 1.213849 1.044509
1981.75 1.587546 1.366072
1982 1.699371 1.453357
1982.25 1.833804 1.568328
1982.5 2.080352 1.779185
1982.75 2.205923 1.886577
1983 1.862815 1.50654
1983.25 1.729518 1.398737
1983.5 1.480289 1.197174
1983.75 1.203932 0.9736723
1984 1.093217 0.9537728
1984.25 1.027413 0.8963628
1984.5 1.027496 0.8964345
1984.75 0.9662428 0.8429948
1985 1.013542 0.9127814
1985.25 1.0002 0.9007655
1985.5 1.012077 0.9114625
1985.75 0.9875743 0.8893954
1986 0.9587097 0.8547911
1986.25 0.9401324 0.8382275
1986.5 0.899133 0.8016722
1986.75 0.8989181 0.8014806
1987 0.8515356 0.767634
1987.25 0.7877706 0.7101519
1987.5 0.7325882 0.6604066
1987.75 0.7507318 0.6767625
1988 0.720311 0.6462026
1988.25 0.6871974 0.6164958
1988.5 0.7103193 0.6372389
1988.75 0.6811525 0.6110728
1989 0.6471915 0.608225
1989.25 0.6551933 0.6157451
1989.5 0.6891055 0.6476156
1989.75 0.7293568 0.6854433
1990 0.7640263 0.7188177
1990.25 0.7599778 0.7150087
1990.5 0.8400108 0.790306
1990.75 0.9193378 0.8649392
1991 1.061568 0.9443342
1991.25 1.062904 0.945522
1991.5 0.9687218 0.8617411
1991.75 0.9699848 0.8628646
1992 0.9854189 0.8347064
1992.25 0.9994304 0.8465749
1992.5 1.016654 0.8611641
1992.75 0.9467041 0.8019127
1993 0.8351169 0.7078041
1993.25 0.8911346 0.7552819
1993.5 0.913504 0.7742412
1993.75 0.8586271 0.7277303
1994 0.8124316 0.8124316
1994.25 0.6837372 0.6837372
1994.5 0.742091 0.742091
1994.75 0.7009829 0.7009829
1995 0.7684329 0.7684329
1995.25 0.7878605 0.7878605
1995.5 0.7800347 0.7800347
1995.75 0.7802117 0.7802117
1996 0.7990009 0.7990009
1996.25 0.8066936 0.8066936
1996.5 0.7072101 0.7072101
1996.75 0.7167183 0.7167183
1997 0.720103 0.720103
1997.25 0.697447 0.697447
1997.5 0.6215682 0.6215682
1997.75 0.6734056 0.6734056
1998 0.6576837 0.6576837
1998.25 0.5764895 0.5764895
1998.5 0.6545054 0.6545054
1998.75 0.618597 0.618597
1999 0.6196328 0.6196328
1999.25 0.6066182 0.6066182
1999.5 0.6191316 0.6191316
1999.75 0.5838447 0.5838447
2000 0.5660669 0.5660669
2000.25 0.5964006 0.5964006
2000.5 0.6189894 0.6189894
2000.75 0.6270497 0.6270497
2001 0.6946762 0.6946762
2001.25 0.7279573 0.7279573
2001.5 0.7509434 0.7509434
2001.75 0.8409057 0.8409057
2002 0.7814935 0.7814935
2002.25 0.7701278 0.7701278
2002.5 0.7805004 0.7805004
2002.75 0.7585779 0.7585779
2003 0.7702165 0.7702165
2003.25 0.8033502 0.8033502
2003.5 0.7668462 0.7668462
2003.75 0.730627 0.730627
2004 0.7046625 0.7046625
2004.25 0.6670043 0.6670043
2004.5 0.6743157 0.6743157
2004.75 0.6416472 0.6416472
2005 0.6457059 0.6457059
2005.25 0.5992075 0.5992075
2005.5 0.6394051 0.6394051
2005.75 0.612536 0.612536
2006 0.5902588 0.5902588
2006.25 0.6232057 0.6232057
2006.5 0.5968071 0.5968071
2006.75 0.6347601 0.6347601
2007 0.6324689 0.6324689
2007.25 0.6214108 0.6214108
2007.5 0.6360905 0.6360905
2007.75 0.6551154 0.6551154
2008 0.6715648 0.6715648
2008.25 0.7062957 0.7062957
2008.5 0.7985728 0.7985728
2008.75 0.9262349 0.9262349
2009 0.9816126 0.9816126
2009.25 1.117857 1.117857
2009.5 1.160217 1.160217
2009.75 1.030176 1.030176
2010 0.9902215 0.9902215
2010.25 0.9097355 0.9097355
2010.5 0.8905142 0.8905142
2010.75 0.8936289 0.8936289
Return to Figure 17

Figure 17. Layoff Unemplolyment Adjusted for Missclassification, Panel B

date Permanent Layoff rate Adjusted Permanent Layoff rate
1967 1.06803 1.088441
1967.25 1.099558 1.122427
1967.5 1.024065 1.047481
1967.75 1.129528 1.149525
1968 1.061648 1.078107
1968.25 0.8771081 0.8918454
1968.5 0.9203854 0.9350675
1968.75 0.8396994 0.8537074
1969 0.853006 0.8661034
1969.25 0.8535842 0.8675474
1969.5 0.7922664 0.8074719
1969.75 0.8445145 0.860855
1970 1.057864 1.101228
1970.25 1.313717 1.368928
1970.5 1.466217 1.528188
1970.75 1.724197 1.797219
1971 1.852777 1.936124
1971.25 1.915512 1.994025
1971.5 1.909412 1.99227
1971.75 1.855798 1.935614
1972 1.792954 1.853444
1972.25 1.782053 1.839857
1972.5 1.811462 1.868329
1972.75 1.630647 1.679897
1973 1.417853 1.454236
1973.25 1.340723 1.375899
1973.5 1.351177 1.38439
1973.75 1.34137 1.376004
1974 1.484291 1.545952
1974.25 1.476972 1.533962
1974.5 1.605726 1.669712
1974.75 1.958538 2.053457
1975 2.667082 2.947337
1975.25 2.95738 3.298685
1975.5 3.08056 3.368888
1975.75 2.912055 3.155316
1976 2.781018 2.990829
1976.25 2.702816 2.92068
1976.5 2.689411 2.911221
1976.75 2.727029 2.93503
1977 2.543085 2.683532
1977.25 2.310458 2.435098
1977.5 2.250343 2.377848
1977.75 2.136389 2.251276
1978 1.967622 2.023576
1978.25 1.853247 1.901807
1978.5 1.756562 1.808139
1978.75 1.725552 1.778608
1979 1.706533 1.753398
1979.25 1.595301 1.638642
1979.5 1.712468 1.760519
1979.75 1.773298 1.826364
1980 1.914917 2.094223
1980.25 2.221033 2.483615
1980.5 2.507753 2.786691
1980.75 2.557659 2.782652
1981 2.510917 2.683442
1981.25 2.496757 2.667731
1981.5 2.610763 2.780103
1981.75 2.826045 3.047519
1982 3.258242 3.504256
1982.25 3.626751 3.892227
1982.5 3.841331 4.142499
1982.75 4.341243 4.660589
1983 4.326386 4.682661
1983.25 4.286008 4.616789
1983.5 3.949926 4.233041
1983.75 3.51135 3.741609
1984 3.10278 3.242224
1984.25 2.819452 2.950502
1984.5 2.757161 2.888222
1984.75 2.737102 2.86035
1985 2.644613 2.745373
1985.25 2.547965 2.647399
1985.5 2.62644 2.727055
1985.75 2.503782 2.601961
1986 2.483862 2.58778
1986.25 2.61101 2.712914
1986.5 2.49383 2.59129
1986.75 2.426345 2.523783
1987 2.376296 2.460198
1987.25 2.254105 2.331724
1987.5 2.107256 2.179438
1987.75 2.00233 2.076299
1988 1.886847 1.960955
1988.25 1.852967 1.923668
1988.5 1.837316 1.910396
1988.75 1.789833 1.859912
1989 1.727369 1.766336
1989.25 1.628964 1.668412
1989.5 1.691581 1.733071
1989.75 1.752274 1.796188
1990 1.70137 1.746578
1990.25 1.764449 1.809418
1990.5 1.914659 1.964363
1990.75 2.145912 2.200311
1991 2.477175 2.59441
1991.25 2.630746 2.748127
1991.5 2.820659 2.92764
1991.75 2.892839 2.999959
1992 3.152296 3.303009
1992.25 3.333331 3.486186
1992.5 3.235612 3.391101
1992.75 3.163729 3.308521
1993 3.01773 3.145042
1993.25 2.946354 3.082206
1993.5 2.842762 2.982025
1993.75 2.679163 2.81006
1994 2.400521 2.400521
1994.25 2.160921 2.160921
1994.5 2.097631 2.097631
1994.75 1.97985 1.97985
1995 1.829098 1.829098
1995.25 1.856755 1.856755
1995.5 1.839462 1.839462
1995.75 1.873611 1.873611
1996 1.857316 1.857316
1996.25 1.817989 1.817989
1996.5 1.669097 1.669097
1996.75 1.661805 1.661805
1997 1.631979 1.631979
1997.25 1.543548 1.543548
1997.5 1.526466 1.526466
1997.75 1.474627 1.474627
1998 1.444184 1.444184
1998.25 1.440128 1.440128
1998.5 1.393668 1.393668
1998.75 1.412018 1.412018
1999 1.314852 1.314852
1999.25 1.307392 1.307392
1999.5 1.260959 1.260959
1999.75 1.198413 1.198413
2000 1.237713 1.237713
2000.25 1.086662 1.086662
2000.5 1.16964 1.16964
2000.75 1.143336 1.143336
2001 1.335579 1.335579
2001.25 1.493101 1.493101
2001.5 1.679175 1.679175
2001.75 2.224069 2.224069
2002 2.308918 2.308918
2002.25 2.432145 2.432145
2002.5 2.375948 2.375948
2002.75 2.506318 2.506318
2003 2.484132 2.484132
2003.25 2.580725 2.580725
2003.5 2.625264 2.625264
2003.75 2.449797 2.449797
2004 2.296958 2.296958
2004.25 2.194508 2.194508
2004.5 2.091619 2.091619
2004.75 2.095652 2.095652
2005 1.984561 1.984561
2005.25 1.834493 1.834493
2005.5 1.761044 1.761044
2005.75 1.728298 1.728298
2006 1.649001 1.649001
2006.25 1.659374 1.659374
2006.5 1.564357 1.564357
2006.75 1.474477 1.474477
2007 1.53522 1.53522
2007.25 1.580485 1.580485
2007.5 1.740806 1.740806
2007.75 1.79375 1.79375
2008 1.886234 1.886234
2008.25 2.037136 2.037136
2008.5 2.393997 2.393997
2008.75 3.102677 3.102677
2009 4.180392 4.180392
2009.25 4.877017 4.877017
2009.5 5.173319 5.173319
2009.75 5.374963 5.374963
2010 5.118423 5.118423
2010.25 5.043024 5.043024
2010.5 5.098645 5.098645
2010.75 5.056315 5.056315
Return to Figure 17

Figure 18. Impulse Responses of Permanent Layoff Unemployment up to 1988Q1

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.79083 1.70623 1.87542
2 2.28394 2.05726 2.51062
3 2.43701 2.0441 2.82991
4 2.25591 1.70536 2.80646
5 1.79031 1.11637 2.46424
6 1.12366 0.374209 1.87311
7 0.359621 -0.419219 1.13846
8 -0.39325 -1.17297 0.386469
9 -1.03621 -1.81711 -0.255315
10 -1.49267 -2.30138 -0.683952
11 -1.71656 -2.58643 -0.846687
12 -1.69616 -2.64539 -0.746922
Return to Figure 18

Figure 18. Impulse Responses of Permanent Layoff Unemployment After 1988Q1

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.91696 1.84278 1.99115
2 2.7006 2.48887 2.91234
3 3.30956 2.9113 3.70782
4 3.71353 3.09632 4.33075
5 3.89472 3.04337 4.74608
6 3.84853 2.76434 4.93272
7 3.58348 2.28216 4.8848
8 3.12038 1.62888 4.61189
9 2.49084 0.843291 4.13838
10 1.73515 -0.031648 3.50195
11 0.899788 -0.951572 2.75115
12 0.034579 -1.87329 1.94244
Return to Figure 18

Figure 19. Impulse Responses of Temporary Layoff Unemployment up to 1988Q1, Panel A

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.69305 1.59291 1.7932
2 1.97382 1.72035 2.22728
3 1.83054 1.42235 2.23874
4 1.33736 0.813684 1.86104
5 0.630268 0.048048 1.21249
6 -0.126663 -0.72121 0.467884
7 -0.777028 -1.37205 -0.182002
8 -1.20249 -1.82175 -0.583231
9 -1.34229 -2.0158 -0.668785
10 -1.19922 -1.9344 -0.464047
11 -0.832206 -1.61301 -0.051405
12 -0.338533 -1.14108 0.464009
Return to Figure 19

Figure 19. Impulse Responses of Temporary Layoff Unemployment After 1988Q1, Panel B

step irf Lower bound 95% CI Upper bound 95% CI
0 1 1 1
1 1.82561 1.73262 1.9186
2 2.42021 2.16831 2.67211
3 2.7522 2.30586 3.19855
4 2.81564 2.16873 3.46256
5 2.62845 1.79961 3.4573
6 2.22883 1.25403 3.20362
7 1.6701 0.593644 2.74655
8 1.0148 -0.120116 2.14971
9 0.328401 -0.831226 1.48803
10 -0.326629 -1.49236 0.839107
11 -0.896015 -2.06569 0.27366
12 -1.33768 -2.52155 -0.1538
Return to Figure 19

Figure 20. Decomposing the Change in the IRF for Unemployment

period Pre 1988 Post 1988 Post 1988 Permanent only Post 1988 Temporary only Post 1988 Relative variance only
0 1 1 1 1 1
1 1.751026 1.901815 1.874698 1.798764 1.771647
2 2.158083 2.654996 2.563502 2.315014 2.22352
3 2.191517 3.220591 3.031302 2.508843 2.319555
4 1.885022 3.572912 3.268584 2.383432 2.079104
5 1.323192 3.700366 3.287756 1.981195 1.568585
6 0.6219243 3.605381 3.116976 1.375287 0.8868827
7 -0.0941442 3.303468 2.792996 0.6579204 0.1474481
8 -0.7129458 2.821573 2.354526 -0.0727831 -0.5398293
9 -1.151562 2.19583 1.837257 -0.7255979 -1.084171
10 -1.365852 1.468935 1.27115 -1.227066 -1.424851
11 -1.352404 0.6872794 0.6800479 -1.529204 -1.536436
12 -1.143507 -0.101928 0.0831301 -1.613327 -1.428269
Return to Figure 20
♣ This version is optimized for use by screen readers. Descriptions for all mathematical expressions are provided in LaTex format. A printable pdf version is available. Return to Text
Home | Working Papers | Accessibility | Contact us
Last update: July 14, 2011