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2013 FEDS Papers

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2013-88 (December)
Declining Labor Force Attachment and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation
Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura
Abstract | Full paper (401 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-87 (September)
Systemic Risk, International Regulation, and the Limits of Coordination
Gazi I. Kara
Abstract | Full paper (605 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-86 (December)
Unemployment Insurance Experience Rating and Labor Market Dynamics
David D. Ratner
Abstract | Full paper (946 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-85 (November)
Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices
Yang K. Lu and Michael Siemer
Abstract | Full paper (384 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-84 (October)
Are Banks' Internal Risk Parameters Consistent? Evidence from Syndicated Loans
Simon Firestone and Marcelo Rezende
Abstract | Full paper (380 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-83 (October)
Repo Collateral Fire Sales: The Effects of Exemption from Automatic Stay
Sebastian Infante
Abstract | Full paper (429 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-82 (August)
Cost Shifting and the Freezing of Corporate Pension Plans
Joshua Rauh, Irina Stefanescu, and Stephen Zeldes
Abstract | Full paper (447 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-81 (September)
Payday Loans and Consumer Financial Health
Neil Bhutta
Abstract | Full paper (321 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-80 (October)
Sticky Deposit Rates
John C. Driscoll and Ruth A. Judson
Abstract | Full paper (417 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-79 (September)
Are Homeowners in Denial about their House Values? Comparing Owner Perceptions with Transaction-Based Indexes
Alice M. Henriques
Abstract | Full paper (2 MB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-78 (August)
Equity Market Misvaluation, Financing, and Investment
Missaka Warusawitharana and Toni M. Whited
Abstract | Full paper (515 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-77 (November)
Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy
Dave Reifschneider, William Wascher, and David Wilcox
Abstract | Full paper (1 MB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-76 (November)
The Federal Reserve's Framework for Monetary Policy--Recent Changes and New Questions
William B. English, J. David Lopez-Salido, and Robert J. Tetlow
Abstract | Full paper (663 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-75 (October)
Who Works for Startups? The Relation between Firm Age, Employee Age, and Growth
Paige Ouimet and Rebecca Zarutskie
Abstract | Full paper (251 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-74 (September)
Trend Inflation in Advanced Economies
Christine Garnier, Elmar Mertens, and Edward Nelson
Abstract | Full paper (1 MB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-73 (October)
Sectoral Allocation, Risk Efficiency and the Great Moderation
Manjola Tase
Abstract | Full paper (474 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-72 (September)
Yield Curve Impacts of Forward Guidance and Maturity Extension Programs
Jeff W. Huther and Jason S. Seligman
Abstract | Full paper (660 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-71 (October)
Volatility, Labor Heterogeneity and Asset Prices
Marcelo Ochoa
Abstract | Full paper (443 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-70 (October)
Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks across Time and across Sectors
Ekaterina V. Peneva
Abstract | Full paper (701 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-69 (September)
Learning from the Test: Raising Selective College Enrollment by Providing Information
Sarena F. Goodman
Abstract | Full paper (553 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-68 (October)
Going Public Abroad
Cecilia Caglio, Kathleen Weiss Hanley, and Jennifer Marietta-Westberg
Abstract | Full paper (889 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-67 (October)
Rising Intangible Capital, Shrinking Debt Capacity, and the US Corporate Savings Glut
Antonio Falato, Dalida Kadyrzhanova, and Jae W. Sim
Abstract | Full paper (412 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-66 (September)
Taxpayer Confusion over Predictable Tax Liability Changes: Evidence from the Child Tax Credit
Naomi E. Feldman, Peter Katuscak, and Laura Kawano
Abstract | Full paper (397 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-65 (September)
Broadband in the Labor Market: The Impact of Residential High Speed Internet on Married Women's Labor Force Participation
Lisa J. Dettling
Abstract | Full paper (794 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-64 (August)
Policy Uncertainty, Irreversibility, and Cross-Border Flows of Capital
Brandon Julio and Youngsuk Yook
Abstract | Full paper (255 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-63 (September)
Computing Arbitrage-Free Yields in Multi-Factor Gaussian Shadow-Rate Term Structure Models
Marcel A. Priebsch
Abstract | Full paper (897 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-62 (August)
Payday Lending Regulation
Alex Kaufman
Abstract | Full paper (782 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-61 (August)
What Does Financial Volatility Tell Us About Macroeconomic Fluctuations?
Marcelle Chauvet, Zeynep Senyuz, and Emre Yoldas
Abstract | Full paper (788 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-60 (July)
Endogenous Sources of Volatility in Housing Markets: The Joint Buyer-Seller Problem
Elliot Anenberg and Patrick Bayer
Abstract | Full paper (972 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-59 (July)
Cost of Borrowing Shocks and Fiscal Adjustment
Oliver de Groot, Fédéric Holm-Hadulla, and Nadine Leiner-Killinger
Abstract | Full paper (719 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-58 (July)
Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients
Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo
Abstract | Full paper (424 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-57 (August)
The Dynamics of Labor Market Polarization
Christopher L. Smith
Abstract | Full paper (556 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-56 (August)
The Impact of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs on Corporate Credit Risk
Simon Gilchrist and Egon Zakrajsek
Abstract | Full paper (447 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-55 (September)
Stress-Testing U.S. Bank Holding Companies: A Dynamic Panel Quantile Regression Approach
Francisco B. Covas, Ben Rump, and Egon Zakrajsek
Abstract | Full paper (545 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-54 (August)
Volatility of Volatility and Tail Risk Premiums
Yang-Ho Park
Abstract | Full paper (534 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-53 (June)
Household Mobility over the Great Recession: Evidence from the U.S. 2007-09 Survey of Consumer Finances Panel
Brian K. Bucks and Jesse Bricker
Abstract | Full paper (218 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-52 (April)
The Cross-Market Spillover of Economic Shocks through Multi-Market Banks
Jose M. Berrospide, Lamont K. Black, and William R. Keeton
Abstract | Full paper (303 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-51 (July)
Inequality and Poverty in the United States: the Aftermath of the Great Recession
Jeffrey P. Thompson and Timothy M. Smeeding
Abstract | Full paper (421 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-50 (May)
Shadow Banking and the Funding of the Nonfinancial Sector
Joshua Gallin
Abstract | Full paper (385 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-49 (June)
The Effect of State and Local Sales Taxes on Employment at State Borders
Jeffrey P. Thompson and Shawn M. Rohlin
Abstract | Full paper (677 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-48 (June)
Are Leveraged and Inverse ETFs the New Portfolio Insurers?
Tugkan Tuzun
Abstract | Full paper (1 MB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-47 (April)
Credit-Crunch Dynamics with Uninsured Investment Risk
Jonathan E. Goldberg
Abstract | Full paper (508 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-46 (May)
Analysis of Wealth Using Micro and Macro Data: A Comparison of the Survey of Consumer Finances and Flow of Funds Accounts
Alice M. Henriques and Joanne W. Hsu
Abstract | Full paper (294 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-45 (September)
Dementia Risk and Financial Decision Making by Older Households: The Impact of Information
Joanne W. Hsu and Robert J. Willis
Abstract | Full paper (1 MB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-44 (June)
Importing, Exporting and Firm-Level Employment Volatility
Christopher Kurz and Mine Z. Senses
Abstract | Full paper (1 MB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-43 (June)
Sequential Monte Carlo Sampling for DSGE Models
Edward P. Herbst and Frank Schorfheide
Abstract | Full paper (597 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-42 (April)
Economic Volatility and Financial Markets: The Case of Mortgage-Backed Securities
Gaetano Antinolfi and Celso Brunetti
Abstract | Full paper (953 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-41 (May)
Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Risks: An Example
James A. Clouse
Abstract | Full paper (232 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-40 (April)
Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Occasionally Binding Zero Bound Constraints
Taisuke Nakata
Abstract | Full paper (389 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-39 (May)
Assessing and Combining Financial Conditions Indexes
Sirio Aramonte, Samuel Rosen, and John W. Schindler
Abstract | Full paper (1 MB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-38 (May)
Antidumping Duties and Plant-Level Restructuring
Justin R. Pierce
Abstract | Full paper (135 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-37 (May)
The Effects of the Federal Reserve's Date-Based Forward Guidance
Matthew D. Raskin
Abstract | Full paper (866 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-36 (March)
Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?
David M. Byrne, Stephen D. Oliner, and Daniel E. Sichel
Abstract | Full paper (379 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-35 (April)
Duration Risk versus Local Supply Channel in Treasury Yields: Evidence from the Federal Reserve's Asset Purchase Announcements
Michael E. Cahill, Stefania D’Amico, Canlin Li, and John S. Sears
Abstract | Full paper (799 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-34 (March)
The Effectiveness of the Non-Standard Policy Measures during the Financial Crises: The Experiences of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank
Seth B. Carpenter, Selva Demiralp, and Jens Eisenschmidt
Abstract | Full paper (385 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-33 (April)
A Primer on Farm Mortgage Debt Relief Programs during the 1930s
Jonathan D. Rose
Abstract | Full paper (385 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-32 (April)
Analyzing Federal Reserve Asset Purchases: From whom does the Fed buy?
Seth Carpenter, Selva Demiralp, Jane Ihrig, and Elizabeth Klee
Abstract | Full paper (303 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-30 (March)
Equity Extraction and Mortgage Default
Steven Laufer
Abstract | Full paper (368 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-29 (May)
The History of Cyclical Macroprudential Policy in the United States
Douglas J. Elliott, Greg Feldberg, and Andreas Lehnert
Abstract | Full paper (1 MB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-28 (March)
Estate vs. Capital Gains Taxation: An Evaluation of Prospective Policies for Taxing Wealth at the Time of Death
Robert B. Avery, Daniel Grodzicki, and Kevin B. Moore
Abstract | Full paper (371 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-27 (April)
Declining Migration Within the US: The Role of the Labor Market
Raven Molloy, Christopher L. Smith, and Abigail Wozniak
Abstract | Full paper (266 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-26 (April)
The Long and the Short of Household Formation
Andrew D. Paciorek
Abstract | Full paper (352 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-25 (November 2012)
The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk
Fatih Guvenen, Serdar Ozkan, and Jae Song
Abstract | Full paper (1 MB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-24 (September 2012)
The Informational Content of the Embedded Deflation Option in TIPS
Olesya V. Grishchenko, Joel M. Vanden, and Jianing Zhang
Abstract | Full paper (803 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-23 (February)
Made Poorer by Choice: Worker Outcomes in Social Security v. Private Retirement Accounts
Javed I. Ahmed, Brad M. Barber, and Terrance Odean
Abstract | Full paper (780 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-22 (March)
Early Withdrawals from Retirement Accounts During the Great Recession
Robert Argento, Victoria L. Bryant, and John Sabelhaus
Abstract | Full paper (233 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-21 (March)
Financial Stability Monitoring
Tobias Adrian, Daniel Covitz, and Nellie Liang
Abstract | Full paper (797 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-20 (August 2011)
Taxation of Human Capital and Wage Inequality: A Cross-Country Analysis
Fatih Guvenen, Burhanettin Kuruscu, and Serdar Ozkan
Abstract | Full paper (580 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-19 (November 2012)
The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market
Regis Barnichon and Christopher J. Nekarda
Abstract | Full paper (259 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-18 (February)
Uncertainty, Risk, and Incentives: Theory and Evidence
Zhiguo He, Si Li, Bin Wei, and Jianfeng Yu
Abstract | Full paper (629 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-17 (January)
Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy Statements, and Uncovered Interest Parity: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound
Michael T. Kiley
Abstract | Full paper (246 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-16 (January)
Monetary Policy Statements, Treasury Yields, and Private Yields: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound
Michael T. Kiley
Abstract | Full paper (216 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-15 (January)
The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long-term Interest Rates Associated With Monetary Policy Statements: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound
Michael T. Kiley
Abstract | Full paper (237 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-14 (February)
Expectations of functions of stochastic time with application to credit risk modeling
Ovidiu Costin, Michael B. Gordy, Min Huang, and Pawel J. Szerszen
Abstract | Full paper (485 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-13 (January)
Discovering the Universe: Measuring the Role of Finance Companies in the U.S. Economy
Lisa Chen, Kathleen W. Johnson, and Arthur B. Kennickell
Abstract | Full paper (572 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-12 (February)
Welfare Costs of Shifting Trend Inflation
Taisuke Nakata
Abstract | Full paper (308 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-11 (January)
Lessons from the Historical Use of Reserve Requirements in the United States to Promote Bank Liquidity
Mark A. Carlson
Abstract | Full paper (143 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-10 (December 2012)
From Wall Street to Main Street: The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Consumer Credit Supply
Rodney Ramcharan, Skander Van den Heuvel, and Stephane Verani
Abstract | Full paper (514 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-09 (December 2012)
Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound
Taisuke Nakata
Abstract | Full paper (810 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-08 (January)
Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations: Comment
Andre Kurmann and Elmar Mertens
Abstract | Full paper (332 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-07 (November 2012)
A Test for Selection in Matched Administrative Earnings Data
Jesse Bricker and Gary V. Engelhardt
Abstract | Full paper (93 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-06 (December 2012)
Price and Quality Dispersion in an Offshoring Market: Evidence from Semiconductor Production Services
David M. Byrne, Brian K. Kovak, and Ryan Michaels
Abstract | Full paper (966 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-05 (December 2012)
Government Debt and Macroeconomic Activity: A Predictive Analysis for Advanced Economies
Deniz Baglan and Emre Yoldas
Abstract | Full paper (327 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-04 (December 2012)
Why the Geographic Variation in Health Care Spending Can't Tell Us Much about the Efficiency or Quality of our Health Care System
Louise Sheiner
Abstract | Full paper (244 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-03 (November 2012)
Bank Liquidity Hoarding and the Financial Crisis: An Empirical Evaluation
Jose Berrospide
Abstract | Full paper (552 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-02 (November 2012)
Financing Constraints, Firm Dynamics, and International Trade
Stephane Verani and Till Gross
Abstract | Full paper (2 MB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)
2013-01 (January)
The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet and Earnings: A primer and projections
Seth B. Carpenter, Jane E. Ihrig, Elizabeth C. Klee, Daniel W. Quinn, and Alexander H. Boote
Abstract | Full paper (321 KB PDF) | Full paper (Screen Reader Version)