Government Debt and Macroeconomic Activity: A Predictive Analysis for Advanced Economies

Deniz Baglan and Emre Yoldas

Figure 1: Debt to GDP Ratios

Year	Australia	Austria	Belgium	Canada	Denmark	Finland	France	Germany	Greece	Ireland	Italy	Japan
1954	76.85	14.27	69.86	77.01	29.40	18.95	24.77	11.25	13.71	55.98	38.40	11.96
1955	74.98	11.89	68.62	72.33	29.84	17.04	23.70	11.14	12.23	63.82	38.08	12.63
1956	71.82	10.92	65.89	68.09	28.61	16.59	23.20	10.02	11.17	67.31	36.89	10.62
1957	67.72	8.30	62.84	61.41	27.09	16.89	24.07	9.13	7.46	70.15	35.95	8.94
1958	66.05	11.59	67.17	61.73	26.15	16.06	27.29	9.31	8.41	72.79	35.70	9.32
1959	62.39	13.52	70.28	63.66	23.12	15.05	27.15	8.90	10.35	70.34	36.85	9.50
1960	48.34	13.57	69.67	61.71	19.93	12.79	22.09	8.66	10.18	73.64	32.81	8.37
1961	49.38	12.39	67.98	53.16	16.40	10.13	19.31	9.44	11.10	73.66	31.33	6.32
1962	50.33	11.97	65.66	50.94	15.08	11.52	20.40	8.35	13.13	73.51	30.31	5.84
1963	47.59	12.09	63.85	50.27	13.47	13.44	19.66	8.38	19.24	74.48	28.49	4.72
1964	45.01	12.04	59.37	49.11	10.75	13.63	17.48	8.15	18.46	70.89	28.49	4.57
1965	43.74	11.47	57.70	46.24	7.87	14.23	15.22	7.64	19.05	73.42	29.77	5.38
1966	42.48	10.98	55.33	48.96	6.10	15.18	14.67	7.82	16.04	78.05	33.03	6.97
1967	40.53	12.11	54.08	47.57	5.82	15.83	15.18	9.38	17.91	76.97	32.55	8.54
1968	39.49	12.98	54.79	47.45	5.29	15.69	15.27	9.49	19.34	66.10	34.40	9.03
1969	36.80	13.02	52.22	47.10	4.75	12.08	14.53	8.41	21.28	63.59	34.90	8.81
1970	34.96	10.58	48.33	42.68	4.81	10.22	12.37	6.77	18.82	62.24	30.87	8.49
1971	32.29	9.28	45.48	42.69	5.02	8.89	10.77	6.37	19.00	59.67	34.50	9.42
1972	30.72	8.94	44.81	42.92	5.28	7.34	8.81	6.39	20.12	55.88	38.11	12.67
1973	27.36	9.19	42.17	41.15	4.96	4.94	12.00	6.01	16.56	52.06	40.93	11.69
1974	22.37	8.88	38.68	37.51	4.56	3.28	18.00	6.75	17.48	65.46	41.27	11.70
1975	23.64	12.80	39.63	36.52	4.34	3.68	22.00	9.95	18.18	72.36	48.18	15.37
1976	22.98	15.18	39.38	35.72	7.55	4.26	25.00	10.73	20.80	77.64	48.42	19.62
1977	23.64	16.43	42.21	36.17	10.79	5.69	19.70	11.88	23.23	74.14	50.55	24.83
1978	24.73	18.86	45.53	33.80	19.47	8.35	21.09	13.27	23.65	76.47	55.95	30.50
1979	20.87	23.59	49.23	37.28	26.31	8.98	21.04	13.97	23.13	82.61	55.05	35.01
1980	18.67	25.20	53.64	34.06	34.97	9.21	20.89	14.91	24.59	84.35	53.51	39.55
1981	15.80	26.76	63.50	34.28	45.43	10.01	22.00	16.65	28.77	89.75	56.50	41.37
1982	14.69	28.84	74.22	37.27	58.55	12.21	25.35	18.33	29.63	87.20	61.19	44.77
1983	17.17	32.98	84.32	41.54	70.27	13.79	26.72	19.45	33.96	96.49	67.56	48.68
1984	19.59	35.46	89.86	54.49	72.98	14.30	29.06	19.84	40.50	101.60	72.51	50.05
1985	20.92	37.64	97.22	58.57	70.83	13.95	30.58	20.38	47.13	102.96	79.46	50.72
1986	20.99	42.03	102.37	62.31	67.73	14.45	31.07	20.38	47.66	109.68	84.13	54.71
1987	19.53	45.77	106.57	63.51	64.85	14.98	33.26	21.14	52.99	112.43	88.53	56.52
1988	15.96	45.76	108.06	63.29	62.68	13.10	33.26	21.62	62.66	108.33	90.88	54.55
1989	12.21	45.85	106.17	64.08	61.20	10.71	33.97	20.89	65.84	97.68	93.74	51.08
1990	10.03	45.97	106.63	66.08	62.52	10.32	35.17	21.21	89.07	87.71	96.34	49.39
1991	9.07	46.65	109.24	71.15	63.44	16.90	35.96	19.52	91.12	85.52	99.12	48.12
1992	10.60	46.75	111.47	74.84	67.96	33.96	39.77	18.84	97.61	83.55	103.15	49.97
1993	13.47	50.59	118.15	77.45	79.82	51.79	46.25	20.68	97.61	83.27	112.99	55.50
1994	15.50	53.33	115.29	78.77	76.80	58.85	49.39	20.46	103.20	79.80	120.13	59.72
1995	17.86	55.87	113.62	80.05	75.52	62.68	55.43	20.87	104.81	72.95	119.82	65.91
1996	17.33	56.35	112.80	82.60	73.74	66.61	57.99	22.71	108.11	65.55	119.35	70.33
1997	16.99	58.46	109.87	80.36	69.05	64.86	59.29	24.00	105.22	58.17	116.27	75.27
1998	14.24	58.48	105.31	77.69	64.00	59.62	59.41	24.83	103.75	48.76	113.02	86.66
1999	12.85	59.59	103.47	72.49	60.87	55.68	58.84	35.20	103.56	43.98	110.99	98.34
2000	10.81	58.16	99.56	66.29	54.96	47.87	57.27	34.70	108.93	34.83	105.94	106.48
2001	8.97	57.14	99.13	64.40	52.02	44.37	56.87	33.00	106.26	30.94	105.38	122.02
2002	7.97	56.64	97.96	60.98	51.62	41.28	58.79	33.57	109.78	27.91	102.23	130.91
2003	6.83	56.82	95.41	57.62	49.61	43.54	62.89	35.48	106.52	26.91	99.31	136.68
2004	6.10	58.23	92.93	54.23	46.96	41.92	64.97	36.73	108.83	25.38	103.81	150.73
2005	5.69	58.02	91.68	51.31	39.29	38.17	66.44	39.51	110.92	23.56	105.83	162.07
2006	5.20	56.71	87.46	48.47	32.80	35.56	63.60	39.58	108.01	20.32	106.51	164.04
2007	4.70	54.43	85.33	46.04	27.89	31.23	63.78	38.71	106.30	19.79	103.47	162.56
2008	4.47	57.46	90.35	43.27	32.43	29.53	67.46	38.71	109.75	27.72	106.09	167.62

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: Debt to GDP Ratios (Cont'd)

Year	Netherlands	New Zealand	Norway	Portugal	Spain	Sweden	UK	US
1954	91.05	75.28	26.19	20.31	37.94	27.98	146.48	71.31
1955	87.95	73.84	26.70	19.67	38.87	27.80	138.09	66.16
1956	85.09	70.76	26.86	19.20	35.29	27.15	128.97	62.36
1957	89.96	68.06	28.15	18.52	34.05	27.54	122.15	58.67
1958	88.81	67.39	28.46	17.62	30.02	28.62	118.14	59.15
1959	81.52	65.80	29.90	17.31	29.39	28.13	112.44	56.20
1960	78.68	62.86	29.46	15.94	30.03	27.78	106.77	54.39
1961	75.05	62.39	25.11	14.85	27.48	25.12	103.09	53.04
1962	71.58	60.28	24.28	13.99	25.46	22.16	99.94	50.91
1963	63.32	59.10	22.98	16.23	22.14	20.02	98.29	49.51
1964	59.60	56.33	22.08	15.55	18.78	18.04	91.15	46.97
1965	57.27	55.19	20.51	14.72	17.60	16.29	85.02	44.12
1966	56.13	55.85	22.25	14.58	17.10	15.32	82.26	40.61
1967	54.68	57.66	23.10	15.99	16.96	15.45	79.58	39.19
1968	51.75	58.98	23.09	16.89	17.51	16.98	78.55	38.20
1969	49.59	54.08	22.79	17.62	17.94	16.89	72.49	35.93
1970	49.59	49.33	23.64	16.96	17.98	17.39	64.20	35.72
1971	47.30	43.74	24.30	16.05	16.91	17.35	58.19	35.33
1972	44.75	39.98	26.09	14.11	16.59	17.79	55.70	34.51
1973	41.57	37.78	26.39	11.80	15.48	18.57	49.83	33.14
1974	39.68	36.05	26.16	10.31	13.10	19.53	48.28	31.68
1975	39.57	35.82	27.63	10.25	11.58	20.29	43.83	32.56
1976	38.67	39.37	29.42	9.11	8.01	19.55	45.19	34.00
1977	38.10	41.97	34.85	7.43	8.56	21.70	46.11	34.42
1978	41.43	44.10	35.64	6.81	9.76	24.89	47.16	33.64
1979	42.92	44.53	38.61	6.31	9.71	29.27	44.01	32.26
1980	45.43	45.01	33.97	7.99	9.76	35.77	41.30	32.56
1981	49.17	43.36	29.84	10.09	10.40	43.04	38.79	31.91
1982	54.58	46.86	26.00	11.38	11.58	49.49	41.05	35.10
1983	60.48	56.12	20.84	12.71	13.00	56.26	41.32	38.96
1984	64.56	56.97	23.22	9.01	17.73	59.44	40.82	40.00
1985	69.35	67.08	25.78	13.25	30.39	63.56	40.42	43.23
1986	71.04	71.63	34.03	14.03	35.24	61.56	41.12	47.65
1987	73.00	66.54	26.53	15.84	36.25	58.24	38.55	49.62
1988	75.50	57.85	25.53	18.42	36.68	52.33	35.65	51.02
1989	75.60	58.40	25.36	21.22	33.07	46.73	32.37	52.12
1990	75.80	58.98	22.39	23.82	34.48	42.20	27.40	55.74
1991	75.40	61.32	22.94	25.28	35.99	42.82	25.76	61.17
1992	76.20	62.36	27.22	29.57	36.11	48.26	24.56	64.09
1993	77.20	57.79	35.35	33.55	39.41	64.57	25.69	66.17
1994	74.10	51.91	33.02	35.44	48.69	74.47	40.68	66.23
1995	76.10	46.01	30.82	35.89	48.77	79.98	43.36	67.08
1996	74.10	39.29	27.57	39.17	52.16	80.40	44.58	66.66
1997	68.20	36.18	24.68	39.43	55.77	78.39	43.76	64.97
1998	65.70	36.00	22.25	32.93	55.72	76.28	40.87	62.84
1999	61.10	33.44	20.86	29.35	50.82	69.11	38.84	60.47
2000	53.80	31.44	19.30	54.12	48.44	60.76	33.32	57.02
2001	50.70	29.55	18.13	56.03	45.09	49.73	32.06	56.46
2002	50.50	27.62	18.99	58.68	42.78	47.93	33.06	58.52
2003	52.00	25.51	21.32	60.16	39.48	48.85	34.00	60.88
2004	52.60	23.24	18.40	62.96	37.95	47.90	35.62	62.18
2005	52.70	22.28	17.17	68.24	35.12	47.84	37.40	62.77
2006	48.70	19.94	12.47	69.84	31.74	43.78	38.41	63.49
2007	45.50	17.43	11.68	69.18	29.18	38.12	44.80	63.99
2008	58.20	20.38	13.76	71.18	32.93	35.44	43.24	74.09

Return to Figure 2

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