The History of Cyclical Macroprudential Policy in the United States

Douglas J. Elliott, Greg Feldberg, and Andreas Lehnert

Figure 1: Effects of Regulation T on Margin Credit (top panel)

Easing Date	Easing Amount	Margin Credit 60 Days Before	Margin Credit 30 Days Before	Margin Credit at Easing	Margin Credit 30 Days After	Margin Credit 60 Days After	Margin Credit 90 Days After	Margin Credit 120 Days After
1937-11-01	-15	113.2	118.1	100.0	107.8	107.8	107.5	96.5
1947-02-01	-25	113.5	104.1	100.0	108.8	111.3	112.0	109.0
1949-03-30	-25	101.9	98.6	100.0	97.3	117.2	127.6	132.4
1953-02-20	-25	102.7	101.5	100.0	101.0	114.8	124.3	129.7
1958-01-16	-20	101.7	97.7	100.0	97.8	102.2	102.5	102.8
1960-07-28	-20	103.9	101.0	100.0	99.6	100.1	107.6	107.7
1962-07-10	-20	94.5	101.5	100.0	92.6	96.2	104.3	103.4
1970-05-06	-15	94.2	93.3	100.0	102.3	99.6	90.4	86.9
1971-12-06	-10	96.2	100.5	100.0	100.7	103.6	109.2	115.9
1974-01-03	-15	100.5	109.9	100.0	103.3	105.5	110.4	116.2
Average		102.2	102.6	100.0	101.1	105.8	109.6	110.1

Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: Macroprudential Stance (Net Number of Easings)

Date	Net Number of Easings
1912.958	0
1913.042	1
1916.042	2
1917.458	3
1919.458	2
1927.042	3
1929.125	2
1929.458	1
1931.458	2
1933.708	1
1934.458	2
1934.458	3
1934.792	2
1935.042	3
1935.125	4
1936.042	5
1936.125	4
1936.375	3
1936.625	2
1937.208	1
1937.375	0
1937.875	1
1938.125	2
1938.125	3
1938.292	4
1938.292	5
1938.458	6
1939.458	7
1941.625	6
1941.708	5
1941.875	4
1942.208	3
1942.375	2
1942.625	3
1942.708	4
1942.792	5
1945.125	4
1945.458	5
1945.542	4
1945.792	5
1946.042	4
1946.708	3
1946.958	4
1947.125	5
1947.875	4
1947.875	5
1947.875	4
1948.125	3
1948.208	4
1948.458	3
1948.625	4
1948.625	5
1948.625	4
1948.708	3
1948.708	2
1949.208	3
1949.208	4
1949.292	5
1949.375	6
1949.458	7
1949.542	8
1949.625	9
1949.625	10
1949.625	11
1949.625	10
1949.708	11
1950.292	12
1950.292	13
1950.542	12
1950.542	11
1950.708	10
1950.708	9
1950.792	8
1950.792	7
1950.792	6
1950.792	7
1950.792	6
1950.792	5
1950.958	4
1951.042	3
1951.042	2
1951.042	1
1951.042	0
1951.208	-1
1951.542	0
1951.708	1
1951.708	2
1951.708	3
1952.042	4
1952.375	5
1952.458	6
1952.458	7
1952.458	8
1952.708	9
1952.708	8
1952.708	7
1953.042	8
1953.042	9
1953.125	10
1953.292	11
1953.458	12
1953.542	13
1954.458	14
1954.542	15
1954.625	16
1954.625	17
1954.625	18
1954.625	19
1955.042	18
1955.292	17
1955.292	16
1955.542	15
1955.542	14
1955.542	13
1955.542	12
1955.542	11
1955.542	10
1955.542	9
1955.708	8
1955.792	9
1956.042	10
1956.708	11
1956.708	12
1957.042	11
1957.208	12
1957.542	13
1957.542	14
1958.042	15
1958.125	16
1958.208	17
1958.292	18
1958.292	19
1958.292	20
1958.292	21
1958.292	22
1958.625	21
1958.792	20
1959.708	21
1959.708	22
1960.542	23
1960.708	24
1960.875	23
1960.958	24
1961.208	23
1961.458	24
1961.458	25
1961.458	26
1962.042	27
1962.542	28
1962.792	29
1963.542	30
1963.875	29
1964.042	30
1964.708	31
1964.708	32
1964.875	33
1965.125	32
1965.625	33
1965.625	34
1965.958	35
1966.542	34
1966.542	33
1966.708	32
1966.708	31
1966.708	30
1966.958	31
1967.208	32
1967.208	33
1968.042	32
1968.292	33
1968.458	32
1968.625	33
1969.292	32
1969.458	33
1969.542	32
1969.708	31
1969.958	32
1970.042	33
1970.042	34
1970.375	35
1970.458	36
1970.708	35
1970.792	36
1971.042	35
1971.292	34
1971.375	33
1971.625	34
1971.958	35
1972.042	34
1972.875	35
1972.875	36
1972.875	37
1973.375	38
1973.375	39
1973.375	38
1973.458	37
1973.458	38
1973.542	39
1973.542	38
1973.625	39
1973.792	38
1973.875	39
1973.958	40
1974.042	41
1974.042	42
1974.042	43
1974.708	44
1974.708	45
1974.875	44
1974.958	45
1974.958	46
1975.125	47
1975.292	46
1975.458	45
1975.708	44
1975.792	45
1976.042	46
1976.208	45
1976.958	46
1977.542	45
1978.375	46
1978.458	47
1979.042	48
1979.542	49
1979.792	48
1979.875	49
1980.042	50
1980.208	51
1980.208	50
1980.208	49
1980.375	50
1980.375	51
1980.542	52
1980.542	53
1980.542	54
1980.542	55
1980.875	56
1980.958	57
1982.042	56
1982.958	57
1983.708	58
1983.958	59
1984.958	60
1986.292	61
1990.958	62
1992.292	63

Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Macroprudential Actions and Debt Growth: 1925--1992

Date	Consumer Credit	Bank Credit	Easing Count	Easing Date (green vertical bar)	Tightening Count	Tightening Date (red vertical bar)
1945.04167			1	1913.04167	1	1919.45833
1945.125			2	1916.04167	2	1929.125
1945.20833			3	1917.45833	3	1929.45833
1945.29167			4	1927.04167	4	1933.70833
1945.375			5	1931.45833	5	1934.79167
1945.45833			6	1934.45833	6	1936.125
1945.54167			7	1934.45833	7	1936.375
1945.625			8	1935.04167	8	1936.625
1945.70833			9	1935.125	9	1937.20833
1945.79167			10	1936.04167	10	1937.375
1945.875			11	1937.875	11	1941.625
1945.95833			12	1938.125	12	1941.70833
1946.04167	16.09581		13	1938.125	13	1941.875
1946.125	21.38756		14	1938.29167	14	1942.20833
1946.20833	23.60217		15	1938.29167	15	1942.375
1946.29167	31.36285		16	1938.45833	16	1945.125
1946.375	34.38236		17	1939.45833	17	1945.54167
1946.45833	35.01972		18	1942.625	18	1946.04167
1946.54167	38.00445		19	1942.70833	19	1946.70833
1946.625	44.70609		20	1942.79167	20	1947.875
1946.70833	49.34269		21	1945.45833	21	1947.875
1946.79167	49.95111		22	1945.79167	22	1948.125
1946.875	51.22876		23	1946.95833	23	1948.45833
1946.95833	43.81605		24	1947.125	24	1948.625
1947.04167	50.20678		25	1947.875	25	1948.70833
1947.125	49.11542		26	1948.20833	26	1948.70833
1947.20833	47.68464		27	1948.625	27	1949.625
1947.29167	45.174		28	1948.625	28	1950.54167
1947.375	45.05735		29	1949.20833	29	1950.54167
1947.45833	44.57687		30	1949.20833	30	1950.70833
1947.54167	43.24014		31	1949.29167	31	1950.70833
1947.625	38.79715		32	1949.375	32	1950.79167
1947.70833	37.91688		33	1949.45833	33	1950.79167
1947.79167	37.2115		34	1949.54167	34	1950.79167
1947.875	35.97843		35	1949.625	35	1950.79167
1947.95833	36.11876		36	1949.625	36	1950.79167
1948.04167	35.39743	1.35506	37	1949.625	37	1950.95833
1948.125	34.04996	1.4243	38	1949.70833	38	1951.04167
1948.20833	34.55765	0.47458	39	1950.29167	39	1951.04167
1948.29167	33.98679	0.55969	40	1950.29167	40	1951.04167
1948.375	32.71007	0.98987	41	1950.79167	41	1951.04167
1948.45833	32.68526	0.77089	42	1951.54167	42	1951.20833
1948.54167	32.36068	0.91763	43	1951.70833	43	1952.70833
1948.625	31.48434	0.88248	44	1951.70833	44	1952.70833
1948.70833	30.81541	-1.23733	45	1951.70833	45	1955.04167
1948.79167	27.64828	-1.76824	46	1952.04167	46	1955.29167
1948.875	24.47965	-1.79222	47	1952.375	47	1955.29167
1948.95833	22.92853	-1.6928	48	1952.45833	48	1955.54167
1949.04167	20.20698	-1.65577	49	1952.45833	49	1955.54167
1949.125	18.37433	-1.47916	50	1952.45833	50	1955.54167
1949.20833	15.60067	-1.1784	51	1952.70833	51	1955.54167
1949.29167	15.0665	-1.07449	52	1953.04167	52	1955.54167
1949.375	14.74314	-0.30124	53	1953.04167	53	1955.54167
1949.45833	14.11545	0.24283	54	1953.125	54	1955.54167
1949.54167	13.4261	1.07722	55	1953.29167	55	1955.70833
1949.625	13.95825	2.8528	56	1953.45833	56	1957.04167
1949.70833	14.05147	5.19179	57	1953.54167	57	1958.625
1949.79167	15.67242	5.99389	58	1954.45833	58	1958.79167
1949.875	18.15374	5.9325	59	1954.54167	59	1960.875
1949.95833	18.78733	6.07906	60	1954.625	60	1961.20833
1950.04167	19.80417	6.75508	61	1954.625	61	1963.875
1950.125	21.00217	7.14426	62	1954.625	62	1965.125
1950.20833	22.62971	7.7652	63	1954.625	63	1966.54167
1950.29167	22.75729	7.52634	64	1955.79167	64	1966.54167
1950.375	23.94264	6.94443	65	1956.04167	65	1966.70833
1950.45833	25.2531	7.23561	66	1956.70833	66	1966.70833
1950.54167	29.45414	6.11813	67	1956.70833	67	1966.70833
1950.625	30.95733	4.48059	68	1957.20833	68	1968.04167
1950.70833	30.94851	3.41056	69	1957.54167	69	1968.45833
1950.79167	28.97072	3.09782	70	1957.54167	70	1969.29167
1950.875	26.1586	3.48924	71	1958.04167	71	1969.54167
1950.95833	23.74256	4.24679	72	1958.125	72	1969.70833
1951.04167	24.91588	2.89722	73	1958.20833	73	1970.70833
1951.125	24.45745	2.20852	74	1958.29167	74	1971.04167
1951.20833	23.03646	2.54723	75	1958.29167	75	1971.29167
1951.29167	19.49435	2.6756	76	1958.29167	76	1971.375
1951.375	16.35753	2.19419	77	1958.29167	77	1972.04167
1951.45833	12.88994	2.40535	78	1958.29167	78	1973.375
1951.54167	7.33622	2.85785	79	1959.70833	79	1973.45833
1951.625	5.33168	2.9574	80	1959.70833	80	1973.54167
1951.70833	3.99929	3.8507	81	1960.54167	81	1973.79167
1951.79167	4.49957	4.55543	82	1960.70833	82	1974.875
1951.875	5.93802	5.26872	83	1960.95833	83	1975.29167
1951.95833	6.02173	5.10201	84	1961.45833	84	1975.45833
1952.04167	4.22017	6.05699	85	1961.45833	85	1975.70833
1952.125	4.32404	6.79267	86	1961.45833	86	1976.20833
1952.20833	3.76673	6.6776	87	1962.04167	87	1977.54167
1952.29167	6.11351	6.41631	88	1962.54167	88	1979.79167
1952.375	8.96691	6.73269	89	1962.79167	89	1980.20833
1952.45833	12.25368	7.1831	90	1963.54167	90	1980.20833
1952.54167	14.77901	8.00605	91	1964.04167	91	1982.04167
1952.625	14.7397	7.88824	92	1964.70833
1952.70833	15.65048	6.95293	93	1964.70833
1952.79167	17.3279	7.11002	94	1964.875
1952.875	17.89551	7.69692	95	1965.625
1952.95833	20.53598	7.10432	96	1965.625
1953.04167	22.89179	6.35639	97	1965.95833
1953.125	22.80027	5.8694	98	1966.95833
1953.20833	25.5747	5.32741	99	1967.20833
1953.29167	25.71346	4.59503	100	1967.20833
1953.375	24.03878	3.64526	101	1968.29167
1953.45833	21.44501	2.6343	102	1968.625
1953.54167	20.51473	3.85327	103	1969.45833
1953.625	20.35691	4.59294	104	1969.95833
1953.70833	19.32522	4.60191	105	1970.04167
1953.79167	17.49577	3.48743	106	1970.04167
1953.875	15.52268	2.74167	107	1970.375
1953.95833	13.51261	2.99904	108	1970.45833
1954.04167	11.76332	3.21832	109	1970.79167
1954.125	9.11334	2.90713	110	1971.625
1954.20833	5.90531	2.41039	111	1971.95833
1954.29167	4.94779	3.22475	112	1972.875
1954.375	3.92516	4.60087	113	1972.875
1954.45833	4.04226	5.10148	114	1972.875
1954.54167	3.85731	3.08907	115	1973.375
1954.625	2.87049	3.91296	116	1973.375
1954.70833	2.65097	5.13011	117	1973.45833
1954.79167	2.63154	6.90418	118	1973.54167
1954.875	3.12978	6.99851	119	1973.625
1954.95833	3.95111	7.67527	120	1973.875
1955.04167	3.83856	7.61714	121	1973.95833
1955.125	6.59913	6.90551	122	1974.04167
1955.20833	9.02061	6.92071	123	1974.04167
1955.29167	10.4689	7.29284	124	1974.04167
1955.375	11.96269	6.78194	125	1974.70833
1955.45833	13.96198	6.11219	126	1974.70833
1955.54167	14.59956	5.89681	127	1974.95833
1955.625	16.82819	3.97077	128	1974.95833
1955.70833	18.32863	2.93555	129	1975.125
1955.79167	18.82904	2.04127	130	1975.79167
1955.875	19.52752	1.37723	131	1976.04167
1955.95833	19.52907	0.85547	132	1976.95833
1956.04167	19.07584	0.95659	133	1978.375
1956.125	18.47078	1.83301	134	1978.45833
1956.20833	18.2725	3.02667	135	1979.04167
1956.29167	16.51341	2.85275	136	1979.54167
1956.375	16.06602	2.3873	137	1979.875
1956.45833	14.31596	2.61551	138	1980.04167
1956.54167	13.17981	2.09865	139	1980.20833
1956.625	11.99538	2.51185	140	1980.375
1956.70833	10.85502	3.01084	141	1980.375
1956.79167	10.04195	2.69907	142	1980.54167
1956.875	9.75178	3.14946	143	1980.54167
1956.95833	8.54857	3.42863	144	1980.54167
1957.04167	8.50045	3.02929	145	1980.54167
1957.125	8.17906	2.89803	146	1980.875
1957.20833	7.03617	2.46438	147	1980.95833
1957.29167	7.22248	3.1731	148	1982.95833
1957.375	6.93705	3.71768	149	1983.70833
1957.45833	6.6889	3.08017	150	1983.95833
1957.54167	7.23309	3.38381	151	1984.95833
1957.625	7.07276	3.31427	152	1986.29167
1957.70833	6.61582	2.84929	153	1990.95833
1957.79167	6.55358	3.14648	154	1992.29167
1957.875	5.63624	2.62536
1957.95833	5.78703	2.8496
1958.04167	5.67171	7.36366
1958.125	4.46395	8.77815
1958.20833	3.30434	10.27539
1958.29167	2.46166	11.30057
1958.375	1.66595	11.71173
1958.45833	1.07893	13.32929
1958.54167	0.38802	13.45058
1958.625	-0.11166	13.64603
1958.70833	-0.05991	13.65704
1958.79167	-0.11654	13.51781
1958.875	0.05797	14.28037
1958.95833	0.65747	13.91305
1959.04167	1.38469	10.12609
1959.125	2.94444	9.10242
1959.20833	4.67687	7.00094
1959.29167	5.87653	5.91089
1959.375	7.1168	5.24369
1959.45833	8.77358	4.00054
1959.54167	10.10382	5.06997
1959.625	11.44181	4.22254
1959.70833	12.51423	4.34302
1959.79167	13.68123	3.45943
1959.875	14.18557	2.65981
1959.95833	15.73798	3.43571
1960.04167	14.40814	2.54058
1960.125	13.83637	1.48526
1960.20833	13.70829	1.64123
1960.29167	14.36288	1.23868
1960.375	13.61337	1.49621
1960.45833	12.98797	1.76574
1960.54167	12.20431	1.62565
1960.625	11.1404	1.94746
1960.70833	10.58215	2.46477
1960.79167	9.68068	3.62445
1960.875	9.26949	4.06846
1960.95833	7.16756	4.16214
1961.04167	8.31251	5.421
1961.125	6.99996	7.54825
1961.20833	6.318	7.97514
1961.29167	4.09711	7.51707
1961.375	3.84584	7.75478
1961.45833	3.33584	8.60632
1961.54167	2.80748	7.8884
1961.625	2.83695	8.45404
1961.70833	2.55775	9.01434
1961.79167	2.56452	9.19953
1961.875	3.13041	9.0602
1961.95833	3.70377	8.19551
1962.04167	2.6551	7.78029
1962.125	3.86386	7.10247
1962.20833	4.4216	7.63774
1962.29167	6.31035	8.60014
1962.375	7.34683	8.34055
1962.45833	7.95992	8.33186
1962.54167	8.47109	8.25313
1962.625	8.96675	8.11801
1962.70833	9.12437	7.92247
1962.79167	9.5992	7.86945
1962.875	9.54488	8.01868
1962.95833	9.44312	8.76331
1963.04167	10.23348	8.66944
1963.125	10.75408	8.7119
1963.20833	11.00104	8.88193
1963.29167	10.85805	8.32735
1963.375	10.42414	8.64396
1963.45833	10.34459	8.50962
1963.54167	10.99688	9.0479
1963.625	11.3861	8.3943
1963.70833	11.63711	8.54939
1963.79167	12.06062	7.99697
1963.875	11.77492	8.40998
1963.95833	12.41041	8.66322
1964.04167	12.82457	8.32058
1964.125	12.91412	7.91831
1964.20833	13.082	8.17088
1964.29167	12.86214	8.42528
1964.375	13.31659	7.76052
1964.45833	13.29046	7.84122
1964.54167	13.1717	7.20838
1964.625	12.77166	7.85708
1964.70833	13.14848	7.885
1964.79167	12.53738	8.36585
1964.875	12.34953	8.46542
1964.95833	12.24591	8.12692
1965.04167	12.54973	8.73935
1965.125	12.53035	9.41565
1965.20833	12.21056	9.46422
1965.29167	12.68856	9.68681
1965.375	12.43454	10.12602
1965.45833	12.77432	10.3178
1965.54167	12.63766	10.51451
1965.625	12.43053	10.39971
1965.70833	12.15951	10.39221
1965.79167	12.15459	10.47937
1965.875	12.31553	9.93764
1965.95833	11.62767	10.26054
1966.04167	11.29595	10.14853
1966.125	10.89754	9.41888
1966.20833	10.71831	8.85929
1966.29167	9.72566	9.08952
1966.375	9.26381	9.19756
1966.45833	8.66666	8.64751
1966.54167	7.94739	8.79767
1966.625	7.82488	8.59442
1966.70833	6.95436	7.92564
1966.79167	6.48556	6.79934
1966.875	6.3225	6.57643
1966.95833	6.07943	6.31229
1967.04167	5.32594	6.55718
1967.125	4.70977	7.23165
1967.20833	4.35343	8.3202
1967.29167	4.13015	7.41964
1967.375	3.8729	7.02659
1967.45833	3.96067	6.90608
1967.54167	4.03043	7.71456
1967.625	4.06694	8.20159
1967.70833	4.46984	8.87848
1967.79167	4.44523	10.12786
1967.875	4.79045	10.57924
1967.95833	4.96561	10.24258
1968.04167	4.47551	10.13008
1968.125	5.43734	9.82939
1968.20833	5.79838	9.01134
1968.29167	6.52344	9.38727
1968.375	7.00485	9.5431
1968.45833	7.06259	9.6428
1968.54167	7.71358	9.26258
1968.625	7.80244	9.90475
1968.70833	8.15985	10.28944
1968.79167	9.28256	10.24956
1968.875	9.313	10.44061
1968.95833	9.88042	11.24512
1969.04167	10.72712	10.23198
1969.125	10.6743	9.92705
1969.20833	10.80376	9.65566
1969.29167	10.88172	10.13037
1969.375	11.04197	9.78028
1969.45833	11.08593	9.56159
1969.54167	10.59571	7.81372
1969.625	10.42475	5.88825
1969.70833	10.16657	4.68109
1969.79167	9.36523	3.25146
1969.875	8.92733	3.08612
1969.95833	8.31105	2.50332
1970.04167	8.10059	2.02457
1970.125	7.31869	1.59059
1970.20833	6.51698	2.15707
1970.29167	5.63758	2.04984
1970.375	4.87024	1.86662
1970.45833	4.70471	2.04228
1970.54167	4.71993	3.76208
1970.625	4.47473	5.41759
1970.70833	4.41409	6.23784
1970.79167	4.04175	7.46321
1970.875	3.34852	7.91887
1970.95833	3.45669	8.51321
1971.04167	4.97727	10.09679
1971.125	5.25918	11.73083
1971.20833	5.81252	11.77709
1971.29167	6.713	12.16954
1971.375	7.24081	12.84729
1971.45833	7.41841	13.45477
1971.54167	7.74014	13.16622
1971.625	8.50139	12.52265
1971.70833	9.1064	12.42454
1971.79167	9.77301	12.1785
1971.875	11.33529	12.27806
1971.95833	11.69017	12.18924
1972.04167	10.05962	12.00561
1972.125	10.3693	11.70093
1972.20833	11.07648	12.65681
1972.29167	11.19003	12.71857
1972.375	11.86774	13.1308
1972.45833	12.52737	13.04329
1972.54167	12.41666	12.9724
1972.625	12.5218	13.36067
1972.70833	12.45859	13.55583
1972.79167	12.71355	14.1062
1972.875	12.68021	14.51433
1972.95833	13.10752	14.90372
1973.04167	14.65131	15.39244
1973.125	15.22738	16.29991
1973.20833	15.34631	16.42279
1973.29167	15.38891	16.01895
1973.375	15.51782	16.13414
1973.45833	15.54648	16.59362
1973.54167	15.91958	16.79443
1973.625	15.97282	17.26703
1973.70833	15.44173	16.56973
1973.79167	15.56548	15.88036
1973.875	15.36073	15.07597
1973.95833	14.37952	14.48284
1974.04167	13.00561	13.8584
1974.125	12.18728	12.95409
1974.20833	11.1835	12.7432
1974.29167	10.71945	13.67604
1974.375	9.96026	13.46963
1974.45833	9.12186	13.17858
1974.54167	8.76232	12.73409
1974.625	8.13247	12.20494
1974.70833	7.7	11.79906
1974.79167	6.43213	11.16005
1974.875	5.2538	10.56829
1974.95833	4.64605	10.01078
1975.04167	4.05154	8.90582
1975.125	3.63213	7.73418
1975.20833	2.97474	6.86562
1975.29167	2.12709	5.29258
1975.375	1.46388	4.54466
1975.45833	-0.42887	4.08428
1975.54167	-0.36012	3.39067
1975.625	-0.55449	2.93709
1975.70833	-0.09423	3.40754
1975.79167	0.4508	3.77378
1975.875	1.12329	3.89494
1975.95833	2.55593	4.28211
1976.04167	3.24379	4.19467
1976.125	3.60963	4.91545
1976.20833	4.63498	5.24078
1976.29167	5.91578	5.72325
1976.375	6.37535	6.05766
1976.45833	8.77188	6.38797
1976.54167	8.95503	6.34935
1976.625	9.2317	6.82109
1976.70833	9.6675	6.68282
1976.79167	10.19426	7.33837
1976.875	10.57705	7.96217
1976.95833	10.64676	8.23433
1977.04167	9.83472	8.93066
1977.125	10.55535	9.32523
1977.20833	11.52436	9.61448
1977.29167	11.92113	9.89343
1977.375	13.06042	10.3397
1977.45833	13.67871	10.37023
1977.54167	14.03262	10.9785
1977.625	14.76357	11.32828
1977.70833	14.88417	11.58806
1977.79167	15.64221	11.33729
1977.875	16.14327	11.33466
1977.95833	15.43543	10.90322
1978.04167	16.40525	11.32395
1978.125	16.28237	11.40403
1978.20833	16.31796	11.5288
1978.29167	16.35987	11.87482
1978.375	16.83492	11.9733
1978.45833	17.61167	12.48323
1978.54167	17.64877	12.80692
1978.625	17.84433	12.36254
1978.70833	17.87681	12.87149
1978.79167	16.9907	13.16907
1978.875	16.98683	13.39632
1978.95833	17.47668	13.3354
1979.04167	17.93913	13.28865
1979.125	17.9823	13.59751
1979.20833	17.3675	13.47211
1979.29167	17.07464	13.64844
1979.375	16.44394	13.82555
1979.45833	15.1076	13.74999
1979.54167	14.9528	14.34199
1979.625	14.67571	14.40609
1979.70833	14.60949	14.66436
1979.79167	14.8718	13.76012
1979.875	14.42182	12.15728
1979.95833	13.88064	11.41685
1980.04167	13.09203	11.40211
1980.125	12.60906	11.73696
1980.20833	11.29928	11.15726
1980.29167	9.45405	9.61824
1980.375	7.21671	8.08809
1980.45833	5.64468	6.67944
1980.54167	4.54273	6.14287
1980.625	3.50238	6.62563
1980.70833	2.56692	5.72394
1980.79167	1.84891	6.58252
1980.875	1.04365	8.34703
1980.95833	0.95554	8.82197
1981.04167	0.72861	9.12574
1981.125	0.47834	8.2925
1981.20833	1.15709	7.88874
1981.29167	2.23341	8.62625
1981.375	3.61064	10.30304
1981.45833	4.62839	11.01632
1981.54167	5.07282	10.58187
1981.625	5.06649	9.95246
1981.70833	6.15591	9.75397
1981.79167	5.96657	9.11416
1981.875	6.21575	8.07949
1981.95833	5.50736	6.63257
1982.04167	6.2709	6.32987
1982.125	6.09793	7.02209
1982.20833	5.53257	7.27832
1982.29167	5.43013	7.58084
1982.375	5.31679	6.97648
1982.45833	5.3046	6.91554
1982.54167	4.87263	7.03865
1982.625	4.84951	6.90066
1982.70833	3.99344	6.98766
1982.79167	3.91692	7.20411
1982.875	4.03669	6.66214
1982.95833	4.99519	7.6932
1983.04167	4.44076	8.05849
1983.125	4.24678	7.54295
1983.20833	4.96108	7.86048
1983.29167	5.22731	7.60845
1983.375	5.12958	7.8365
1983.45833	5.98112	8.3666
1983.54167	7.06715	8.67076
1983.625	8.13112	9.07868
1983.70833	8.70697	9.19191
1983.79167	10.08029	9.64886
1983.875	11.17229	10.70032
1983.95833	12.11242	10.86908
1984.04167	12.80241	10.47678
1984.125	15.17633	11.3348
1984.20833	15.41199	11.32121
1984.29167	15.99152	11.63509
1984.375	18.12475	11.93476
1984.45833	18.81318	11.4529
1984.54167	18.96906	11.44966
1984.625	19.35392	11.08167
1984.70833	19.3086	11.16571
1984.79167	19.08703	10.69536
1984.875	18.64672	10.60781
1984.95833	18.35185	10.7115
1985.04167	18.54976	10.67017
1985.125	17.82256	10.37011
1985.20833	18.66323	10.25242
1985.29167	18.87031	8.94597
1985.375	17.65239	8.95311
1985.45833	16.6763	9.36632
1985.54167	16.52559	9.15603
1985.625	16.02487	9.17928
1985.70833	16.78086	9.19369
1985.79167	16.5753	8.82916
1985.875	16.52904	9.02734
1985.95833	15.93573	9.44012
1986.04167	15.59672	10.55243
1986.125	14.69248	10.00915
1986.20833	13.21983	9.93477
1986.29167	12.79861	10.56331
1986.375	12.58953	9.95709
1986.45833	12.26807	9.38574
1986.54167	11.8907	9.90349
1986.625	11.44343	10.29434
1986.70833	10.97225	10.57187
1986.79167	11.13022	10.28591
1986.875	9.97339	9.96899
1986.95833	9.17758	10.41471
1987.04167	7.85278	10.14138
1987.125	6.85369	9.79726
1987.20833	6.16605	9.58152
1987.29167	5.92968	10.30614
1987.375	5.21717	10.30637
1987.45833	5.21251	10.08116
1987.54167	5.1183	9.13093
1987.625	5.2153	8.81972
1987.70833	4.6729	8.74397
1987.79167	4.19052	9.25763
1987.875	4.73298	8.52369
1987.95833	4.82147	7.21455
1988.04167	5.97051	6.78773
1988.125	6.72074	7.09549
1988.20833	7.60192	7.25281
1988.29167	7.53603	7.11057
1988.375	7.83267	7.5856
1988.45833	7.58665	8.01713
1988.54167	7.25717	8.35605
1988.625	7.3354	8.13866
1988.70833	6.91152	7.22656
1988.79167	6.59453	7.25683
1988.875	6.56484	7.69988
1988.95833	6.644	7.8237
1989.04167	8.19798	7.28164
1989.125	8.11412	7.77789
1989.20833	8.46539	7.45051
1989.29167	8.33647	6.89258
1989.375	8.3417	6.51204
1989.45833	8.41823	6.22728
1989.54167	8.39911	6.45399
1989.625	7.94706	6.59067
1989.70833	8.14366	6.93794
1989.79167	8.1862	7.25353
1989.875	8.31032	7.17747
1989.95833	8.56577	6.84049
1990.04167	6.50069	7.17139
1990.125	6.09385	6.86953
1990.20833	5.0959	6.86996
1990.29167	4.45063	6.83926
1990.375	3.96156	6.60081
1990.45833	3.83661	6.64487
1990.54167	3.94551	6.51008
1990.625	3.83655	6.6592
1990.70833	3.65992	6.25018
1990.79167	3.45103	5.53842
1990.875	2.95655	5.18501
1990.95833	1.71384	5.39327
1991.04167	1.11389	5.01499
1991.125	1.03375	4.76166
1991.20833	1.20234	4.79046
1991.29167	1.13578	4.3732
1991.375	1.01046	4.10051
1991.45833	0.38634	3.9301
1991.54167	-0.35444	3.36991
1991.625	-0.83296	2.65532
1991.70833	-1.178	3.03064
1991.79167	-1.72744	3.41716
1991.875	-1.89116	3.88918
1991.95833	-1.26221	4.12695

Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: Macroprudential Actions and Debt Growth: 1945-1960

Date	Consumer Credit	Bank Credit	Easing Count	Easing Date (green vertical bar)	Tightening Count	Tightening Date (red vertical bar)
1945.04167			1	1945.45833	1	1945.125
1945.125			2	1945.79167	2	1945.54167
1945.20833			3	1946.95833	3	1946.04167
1945.29167			4	1947.125	4	1946.70833
1945.375			5	1947.875	5	1947.875
1945.45833			6	1948.20833	6	1947.875
1945.54167			7	1948.625	7	1948.125
1945.625			8	1948.625	8	1948.45833
1945.70833			9	1949.20833	9	1948.625
1945.79167			10	1949.20833	10	1948.70833
1945.875			11	1949.29167	11	1948.70833
1945.95833			12	1949.375	12	1949.625
1946.04167	16.09581		13	1949.45833	13	1950.54167
1946.125	21.38756		14	1949.54167	14	1950.54167
1946.20833	23.60217		15	1949.625	15	1950.70833
1946.29167	31.36285		16	1949.625	16	1950.70833
1946.375	34.38236		17	1949.625	17	1950.79167
1946.45833	35.01972		18	1949.70833	18	1950.79167
1946.54167	38.00445		19	1950.29167	19	1950.79167
1946.625	44.70609		20	1950.29167	20	1950.79167
1946.70833	49.34269		21	1950.79167	21	1950.79167
1946.79167	49.95111		22	1951.54167	22	1950.95833
1946.875	51.22876		23	1951.70833	23	1951.04167
1946.95833	43.81605		24	1951.70833	24	1951.04167
1947.04167	50.20678		25	1951.70833	25	1951.04167
1947.125	49.11542		26	1952.04167	26	1951.04167
1947.20833	47.68464		27	1952.375	27	1951.20833
1947.29167	45.174		28	1952.45833	28	1952.70833
1947.375	45.05735		29	1952.45833	29	1952.70833
1947.45833	44.57687		30	1952.45833	30	1955.04167
1947.54167	43.24014		31	1952.70833	31	1955.29167
1947.625	38.79715		32	1953.04167	32	1955.29167
1947.70833	37.91688		33	1953.04167	33	1955.54167
1947.79167	37.2115		34	1953.125	34	1955.54167
1947.875	35.97843		35	1953.29167	35	1955.54167
1947.95833	36.11876		36	1953.45833	36	1955.54167
1948.04167	35.39743	1.35506	37	1953.54167	37	1955.54167
1948.125	34.04996	1.4243	38	1954.45833	38	1955.54167
1948.20833	34.55765	0.47458	39	1954.54167	39	1955.54167
1948.29167	33.98679	0.55969	40	1954.625	40	1955.70833
1948.375	32.71007	0.98987	41	1954.625	41	1957.04167
1948.45833	32.68526	0.77089	42	1954.625	42	1958.625
1948.54167	32.36068	0.91763	43	1954.625	43	1958.79167
1948.625	31.48434	0.88248	44	1955.79167	44	1960.875
1948.70833	30.81541	-1.23733	45	1956.04167	45	1961.20833
1948.79167	27.64828	-1.76824	46	1956.70833	46	1963.875
1948.875	24.47965	-1.79222	47	1956.70833	47	1965.125
1948.95833	22.92853	-1.6928	48	1957.20833	48	1966.54167
1949.04167	20.20698	-1.65577	49	1957.54167	49	1966.54167
1949.125	18.37433	-1.47916	50	1957.54167	50	1966.70833
1949.20833	15.60067	-1.1784	51	1958.04167	51	1966.70833
1949.29167	15.0665	-1.07449	52	1958.125	52	1966.70833
1949.375	14.74314	-0.30124	53	1958.20833	53	1968.04167
1949.45833	14.11545	0.24283	54	1958.29167	54	1968.45833
1949.54167	13.4261	1.07722	55	1958.29167	55	1969.29167
1949.625	13.95825	2.8528	56	1958.29167	56	1969.54167
1949.70833	14.05147	5.19179	57	1958.29167	57	1969.70833
1949.79167	15.67242	5.99389	58	1958.29167	58	1970.70833
1949.875	18.15374	5.9325	59	1959.70833	59	1971.04167
1949.95833	18.78733	6.07906	60	1959.70833	60	1971.29167
1950.04167	19.80417	6.75508	61	1960.54167	61	1971.375
1950.125	21.00217	7.14426	62	1960.70833	62	1972.04167
1950.20833	22.62971	7.7652	63	1960.95833	63	1973.375
1950.29167	22.75729	7.52634	64	1961.45833	64	1973.45833
1950.375	23.94264	6.94443	65	1961.45833	65	1973.54167
1950.45833	25.2531	7.23561	66	1961.45833	66	1973.79167
1950.54167	29.45414	6.11813	67	1962.04167	67	1974.875
1950.625	30.95733	4.48059	68	1962.54167	68	1975.29167
1950.70833	30.94851	3.41056	69	1962.79167	69	1975.45833
1950.79167	28.97072	3.09782	70	1963.54167	70	1975.70833
1950.875	26.1586	3.48924	71	1964.04167	71	1976.20833
1950.95833	23.74256	4.24679	72	1964.70833	72	1977.54167
1951.04167	24.91588	2.89722	73	1964.70833	73	1979.79167
1951.125	24.45745	2.20852	74	1964.875	74	1980.20833
1951.20833	23.03646	2.54723	75	1965.625	75	1980.20833
1951.29167	19.49435	2.6756	76	1965.625	76	1982.04167
1951.375	16.35753	2.19419	77	1965.95833
1951.45833	12.88994	2.40535	78	1966.95833
1951.54167	7.33622	2.85785	79	1967.20833
1951.625	5.33168	2.9574	80	1967.20833
1951.70833	3.99929	3.8507	81	1968.29167
1951.79167	4.49957	4.55543	82	1968.625
1951.875	5.93802	5.26872	83	1969.45833
1951.95833	6.02173	5.10201	84	1969.95833
1952.04167	4.22017	6.05699	85	1970.04167
1952.125	4.32404	6.79267	86	1970.04167
1952.20833	3.76673	6.6776	87	1970.375
1952.29167	6.11351	6.41631	88	1970.45833
1952.375	8.96691	6.73269	89	1970.79167
1952.45833	12.25368	7.1831	90	1971.625
1952.54167	14.77901	8.00605	91	1971.95833
1952.625	14.7397	7.88824	92	1972.875
1952.70833	15.65048	6.95293	93	1972.875
1952.79167	17.3279	7.11002	94	1972.875
1952.875	17.89551	7.69692	95	1973.375
1952.95833	20.53598	7.10432	96	1973.375
1953.04167	22.89179	6.35639	97	1973.45833
1953.125	22.80027	5.8694	98	1973.54167
1953.20833	25.5747	5.32741	99	1973.625
1953.29167	25.71346	4.59503	100	1973.875
1953.375	24.03878	3.64526	101	1973.95833
1953.45833	21.44501	2.6343	102	1974.04167
1953.54167	20.51473	3.85327	103	1974.04167
1953.625	20.35691	4.59294	104	1974.04167
1953.70833	19.32522	4.60191	105	1974.70833
1953.79167	17.49577	3.48743	106	1974.70833
1953.875	15.52268	2.74167	107	1974.95833
1953.95833	13.51261	2.99904	108	1974.95833
1954.04167	11.76332	3.21832	109	1975.125
1954.125	9.11334	2.90713	110	1975.79167
1954.20833	5.90531	2.41039	111	1976.04167
1954.29167	4.94779	3.22475	112	1976.95833
1954.375	3.92516	4.60087	113	1978.375
1954.45833	4.04226	5.10148	114	1978.45833
1954.54167	3.85731	3.08907	115	1979.04167
1954.625	2.87049	3.91296	116	1979.54167
1954.70833	2.65097	5.13011	117	1979.875
1954.79167	2.63154	6.90418	118	1980.04167
1954.875	3.12978	6.99851	119	1980.20833
1954.95833	3.95111	7.67527	120	1980.375
1955.04167	3.83856	7.61714	121	1980.375
1955.125	6.59913	6.90551	122	1980.54167
1955.20833	9.02061	6.92071	123	1980.54167
1955.29167	10.4689	7.29284	124	1980.54167
1955.375	11.96269	6.78194	125	1980.54167
1955.45833	13.96198	6.11219	126	1980.875
1955.54167	14.59956	5.89681	127	1980.95833
1955.625	16.82819	3.97077	128	1982.95833
1955.70833	18.32863	2.93555	129	1983.70833
1955.79167	18.82904	2.04127	130	1983.95833
1955.875	19.52752	1.37723	131	1984.95833
1955.95833	19.52907	0.85547	132	1986.29167
1956.04167	19.07584	0.95659	133	1990.95833
1956.125	18.47078	1.83301	134	1992.29167
1956.20833	18.2725	3.02667
1956.29167	16.51341	2.85275
1956.375	16.06602	2.3873
1956.45833	14.31596	2.61551
1956.54167	13.17981	2.09865
1956.625	11.99538	2.51185
1956.70833	10.85502	3.01084
1956.79167	10.04195	2.69907
1956.875	9.75178	3.14946
1956.95833	8.54857	3.42863
1957.04167	8.50045	3.02929
1957.125	8.17906	2.89803
1957.20833	7.03617	2.46438
1957.29167	7.22248	3.1731
1957.375	6.93705	3.71768
1957.45833	6.6889	3.08017
1957.54167	7.23309	3.38381
1957.625	7.07276	3.31427
1957.70833	6.61582	2.84929
1957.79167	6.55358	3.14648
1957.875	5.63624	2.62536
1957.95833	5.78703	2.8496
1958.04167	5.67171	7.36366
1958.125	4.46395	8.77815
1958.20833	3.30434	10.27539
1958.29167	2.46166	11.30057
1958.375	1.66595	11.71173
1958.45833	1.07893	13.32929
1958.54167	0.38802	13.45058
1958.625	-0.11166	13.64603
1958.70833	-0.05991	13.65704
1958.79167	-0.11654	13.51781
1958.875	0.05797	14.28037
1958.95833	0.65747	13.91305
1959.04167	1.38469	10.12609
1959.125	2.94444	9.10242
1959.20833	4.67687	7.00094
1959.29167	5.87653	5.91089
1959.375	7.1168	5.24369
1959.45833	8.77358	4.00054
1959.54167	10.10382	5.06997
1959.625	11.44181	4.22254
1959.70833	12.51423	4.34302
1959.79167	13.68123	3.45943
1959.875	14.18557	2.65981
1959.95833	15.73798	3.43571
1960.04167	14.40814	2.54058
1960.125	13.83637	1.48526
1960.20833	13.70829	1.64123
1960.29167	14.36288	1.23868
1960.375	13.61337	1.49621
1960.45833	12.98797	1.76574
1960.54167	12.20431	1.62565
1960.625	11.1404	1.94746
1960.70833	10.58215	2.46477
1960.79167	9.68068	3.62445
1960.875	9.26949	4.06846
1960.95833	7.16756	4.16214
1961.04167	8.31251	5.421
1961.125	6.99996	7.54825
1961.20833	6.318	7.97514
1961.29167	4.09711	7.51707
1961.375	3.84584	7.75478
1961.45833	3.33584	8.60632
1961.54167	2.80748	7.8884
1961.625	2.83695	8.45404
1961.70833	2.55775	9.01434
1961.79167	2.56452	9.19953
1961.875	3.13041	9.0602
1961.95833	3.70377	8.19551
1962.04167	2.6551	7.78029
1962.125	3.86386	7.10247
1962.20833	4.4216	7.63774
1962.29167	6.31035	8.60014
1962.375	7.34683	8.34055
1962.45833	7.95992	8.33186
1962.54167	8.47109	8.25313
1962.625	8.96675	8.11801
1962.70833	9.12437	7.92247
1962.79167	9.5992	7.86945
1962.875	9.54488	8.01868
1962.95833	9.44312	8.76331
1963.04167	10.23348	8.66944
1963.125	10.75408	8.7119
1963.20833	11.00104	8.88193
1963.29167	10.85805	8.32735
1963.375	10.42414	8.64396
1963.45833	10.34459	8.50962
1963.54167	10.99688	9.0479
1963.625	11.3861	8.3943
1963.70833	11.63711	8.54939
1963.79167	12.06062	7.99697
1963.875	11.77492	8.40998
1963.95833	12.41041	8.66322
1964.04167	12.82457	8.32058
1964.125	12.91412	7.91831
1964.20833	13.082	8.17088
1964.29167	12.86214	8.42528
1964.375	13.31659	7.76052
1964.45833	13.29046	7.84122
1964.54167	13.1717	7.20838
1964.625	12.77166	7.85708
1964.70833	13.14848	7.885
1964.79167	12.53738	8.36585
1964.875	12.34953	8.46542
1964.95833	12.24591	8.12692
1965.04167	12.54973	8.73935
1965.125	12.53035	9.41565
1965.20833	12.21056	9.46422
1965.29167	12.68856	9.68681
1965.375	12.43454	10.12602
1965.45833	12.77432	10.3178
1965.54167	12.63766	10.51451
1965.625	12.43053	10.39971
1965.70833	12.15951	10.39221
1965.79167	12.15459	10.47937
1965.875	12.31553	9.93764
1965.95833	11.62767	10.26054
1966.04167	11.29595	10.14853
1966.125	10.89754	9.41888
1966.20833	10.71831	8.85929
1966.29167	9.72566	9.08952
1966.375	9.26381	9.19756
1966.45833	8.66666	8.64751
1966.54167	7.94739	8.79767
1966.625	7.82488	8.59442
1966.70833	6.95436	7.92564
1966.79167	6.48556	6.79934
1966.875	6.3225	6.57643
1966.95833	6.07943	6.31229
1967.04167	5.32594	6.55718
1967.125	4.70977	7.23165
1967.20833	4.35343	8.3202
1967.29167	4.13015	7.41964
1967.375	3.8729	7.02659
1967.45833	3.96067	6.90608
1967.54167	4.03043	7.71456
1967.625	4.06694	8.20159
1967.70833	4.46984	8.87848
1967.79167	4.44523	10.12786
1967.875	4.79045	10.57924
1967.95833	4.96561	10.24258
1968.04167	4.47551	10.13008
1968.125	5.43734	9.82939
1968.20833	5.79838	9.01134
1968.29167	6.52344	9.38727
1968.375	7.00485	9.5431
1968.45833	7.06259	9.6428
1968.54167	7.71358	9.26258
1968.625	7.80244	9.90475
1968.70833	8.15985	10.28944
1968.79167	9.28256	10.24956
1968.875	9.313	10.44061
1968.95833	9.88042	11.24512
1969.04167	10.72712	10.23198
1969.125	10.6743	9.92705
1969.20833	10.80376	9.65566
1969.29167	10.88172	10.13037
1969.375	11.04197	9.78028
1969.45833	11.08593	9.56159
1969.54167	10.59571	7.81372
1969.625	10.42475	5.88825
1969.70833	10.16657	4.68109
1969.79167	9.36523	3.25146
1969.875	8.92733	3.08612
1969.95833	8.31105	2.50332
1970.04167	8.10059	2.02457
1970.125	7.31869	1.59059
1970.20833	6.51698	2.15707
1970.29167	5.63758	2.04984
1970.375	4.87024	1.86662
1970.45833	4.70471	2.04228
1970.54167	4.71993	3.76208
1970.625	4.47473	5.41759
1970.70833	4.41409	6.23784
1970.79167	4.04175	7.46321
1970.875	3.34852	7.91887
1970.95833	3.45669	8.51321
1971.04167	4.97727	10.09679
1971.125	5.25918	11.73083
1971.20833	5.81252	11.77709
1971.29167	6.713	12.16954
1971.375	7.24081	12.84729
1971.45833	7.41841	13.45477
1971.54167	7.74014	13.16622
1971.625	8.50139	12.52265
1971.70833	9.1064	12.42454
1971.79167	9.77301	12.1785
1971.875	11.33529	12.27806
1971.95833	11.69017	12.18924
1972.04167	10.05962	12.00561
1972.125	10.3693	11.70093
1972.20833	11.07648	12.65681
1972.29167	11.19003	12.71857
1972.375	11.86774	13.1308
1972.45833	12.52737	13.04329
1972.54167	12.41666	12.9724
1972.625	12.5218	13.36067
1972.70833	12.45859	13.55583
1972.79167	12.71355	14.1062
1972.875	12.68021	14.51433
1972.95833	13.10752	14.90372
1973.04167	14.65131	15.39244
1973.125	15.22738	16.29991
1973.20833	15.34631	16.42279
1973.29167	15.38891	16.01895
1973.375	15.51782	16.13414
1973.45833	15.54648	16.59362
1973.54167	15.91958	16.79443
1973.625	15.97282	17.26703
1973.70833	15.44173	16.56973
1973.79167	15.56548	15.88036
1973.875	15.36073	15.07597
1973.95833	14.37952	14.48284
1974.04167	13.00561	13.8584
1974.125	12.18728	12.95409
1974.20833	11.1835	12.7432
1974.29167	10.71945	13.67604
1974.375	9.96026	13.46963
1974.45833	9.12186	13.17858
1974.54167	8.76232	12.73409
1974.625	8.13247	12.20494
1974.70833	7.7	11.79906
1974.79167	6.43213	11.16005
1974.875	5.2538	10.56829
1974.95833	4.64605	10.01078
1975.04167	4.05154	8.90582
1975.125	3.63213	7.73418
1975.20833	2.97474	6.86562
1975.29167	2.12709	5.29258
1975.375	1.46388	4.54466
1975.45833	-0.42887	4.08428
1975.54167	-0.36012	3.39067
1975.625	-0.55449	2.93709
1975.70833	-0.09423	3.40754
1975.79167	0.4508	3.77378
1975.875	1.12329	3.89494
1975.95833	2.55593	4.28211
1976.04167	3.24379	4.19467
1976.125	3.60963	4.91545
1976.20833	4.63498	5.24078
1976.29167	5.91578	5.72325
1976.375	6.37535	6.05766
1976.45833	8.77188	6.38797
1976.54167	8.95503	6.34935
1976.625	9.2317	6.82109
1976.70833	9.6675	6.68282
1976.79167	10.19426	7.33837
1976.875	10.57705	7.96217
1976.95833	10.64676	8.23433
1977.04167	9.83472	8.93066
1977.125	10.55535	9.32523
1977.20833	11.52436	9.61448
1977.29167	11.92113	9.89343
1977.375	13.06042	10.3397
1977.45833	13.67871	10.37023
1977.54167	14.03262	10.9785
1977.625	14.76357	11.32828
1977.70833	14.88417	11.58806
1977.79167	15.64221	11.33729
1977.875	16.14327	11.33466
1977.95833	15.43543	10.90322
1978.04167	16.40525	11.32395
1978.125	16.28237	11.40403
1978.20833	16.31796	11.5288
1978.29167	16.35987	11.87482
1978.375	16.83492	11.9733
1978.45833	17.61167	12.48323
1978.54167	17.64877	12.80692
1978.625	17.84433	12.36254
1978.70833	17.87681	12.87149
1978.79167	16.9907	13.16907
1978.875	16.98683	13.39632
1978.95833	17.47668	13.3354
1979.04167	17.93913	13.28865
1979.125	17.9823	13.59751
1979.20833	17.3675	13.47211
1979.29167	17.07464	13.64844
1979.375	16.44394	13.82555
1979.45833	15.1076	13.74999
1979.54167	14.9528	14.34199
1979.625	14.67571	14.40609
1979.70833	14.60949	14.66436
1979.79167	14.8718	13.76012
1979.875	14.42182	12.15728
1979.95833	13.88064	11.41685
1980.04167	13.09203	11.40211
1980.125	12.60906	11.73696
1980.20833	11.29928	11.15726
1980.29167	9.45405	9.61824
1980.375	7.21671	8.08809
1980.45833	5.64468	6.67944
1980.54167	4.54273	6.14287
1980.625	3.50238	6.62563
1980.70833	2.56692	5.72394
1980.79167	1.84891	6.58252
1980.875	1.04365	8.34703
1980.95833	0.95554	8.82197
1981.04167	0.72861	9.12574
1981.125	0.47834	8.2925
1981.20833	1.15709	7.88874
1981.29167	2.23341	8.62625
1981.375	3.61064	10.30304
1981.45833	4.62839	11.01632
1981.54167	5.07282	10.58187
1981.625	5.06649	9.95246
1981.70833	6.15591	9.75397
1981.79167	5.96657	9.11416
1981.875	6.21575	8.07949
1981.95833	5.50736	6.63257
1982.04167	6.2709	6.32987
1982.125	6.09793	7.02209
1982.20833	5.53257	7.27832
1982.29167	5.43013	7.58084
1982.375	5.31679	6.97648
1982.45833	5.3046	6.91554
1982.54167	4.87263	7.03865
1982.625	4.84951	6.90066
1982.70833	3.99344	6.98766
1982.79167	3.91692	7.20411
1982.875	4.03669	6.66214
1982.95833	4.99519	7.6932
1983.04167	4.44076	8.05849
1983.125	4.24678	7.54295
1983.20833	4.96108	7.86048
1983.29167	5.22731	7.60845
1983.375	5.12958	7.8365
1983.45833	5.98112	8.3666
1983.54167	7.06715	8.67076
1983.625	8.13112	9.07868
1983.70833	8.70697	9.19191
1983.79167	10.08029	9.64886
1983.875	11.17229	10.70032
1983.95833	12.11242	10.86908
1984.04167	12.80241	10.47678
1984.125	15.17633	11.3348
1984.20833	15.41199	11.32121
1984.29167	15.99152	11.63509
1984.375	18.12475	11.93476
1984.45833	18.81318	11.4529
1984.54167	18.96906	11.44966
1984.625	19.35392	11.08167
1984.70833	19.3086	11.16571
1984.79167	19.08703	10.69536
1984.875	18.64672	10.60781
1984.95833	18.35185	10.7115
1985.04167	18.54976	10.67017
1985.125	17.82256	10.37011
1985.20833	18.66323	10.25242
1985.29167	18.87031	8.94597
1985.375	17.65239	8.95311
1985.45833	16.6763	9.36632
1985.54167	16.52559	9.15603
1985.625	16.02487	9.17928
1985.70833	16.78086	9.19369
1985.79167	16.5753	8.82916
1985.875	16.52904	9.02734
1985.95833	15.93573	9.44012
1986.04167	15.59672	10.55243
1986.125	14.69248	10.00915
1986.20833	13.21983	9.93477
1986.29167	12.79861	10.56331
1986.375	12.58953	9.95709
1986.45833	12.26807	9.38574
1986.54167	11.8907	9.90349
1986.625	11.44343	10.29434
1986.70833	10.97225	10.57187
1986.79167	11.13022	10.28591
1986.875	9.97339	9.96899
1986.95833	9.17758	10.41471
1987.04167	7.85278	10.14138
1987.125	6.85369	9.79726
1987.20833	6.16605	9.58152
1987.29167	5.92968	10.30614
1987.375	5.21717	10.30637
1987.45833	5.21251	10.08116
1987.54167	5.1183	9.13093
1987.625	5.2153	8.81972
1987.70833	4.6729	8.74397
1987.79167	4.19052	9.25763
1987.875	4.73298	8.52369
1987.95833	4.82147	7.21455
1988.04167	5.97051	6.78773
1988.125	6.72074	7.09549
1988.20833	7.60192	7.25281
1988.29167	7.53603	7.11057
1988.375	7.83267	7.5856
1988.45833	7.58665	8.01713
1988.54167	7.25717	8.35605
1988.625	7.3354	8.13866
1988.70833	6.91152	7.22656
1988.79167	6.59453	7.25683
1988.875	6.56484	7.69988
1988.95833	6.644	7.8237
1989.04167	8.19798	7.28164
1989.125	8.11412	7.77789
1989.20833	8.46539	7.45051
1989.29167	8.33647	6.89258
1989.375	8.3417	6.51204
1989.45833	8.41823	6.22728
1989.54167	8.39911	6.45399
1989.625	7.94706	6.59067
1989.70833	8.14366	6.93794
1989.79167	8.1862	7.25353
1989.875	8.31032	7.17747
1989.95833	8.56577	6.84049
1990.04167	6.50069	7.17139
1990.125	6.09385	6.86953
1990.20833	5.0959	6.86996
1990.29167	4.45063	6.83926
1990.375	3.96156	6.60081
1990.45833	3.83661	6.64487
1990.54167	3.94551	6.51008
1990.625	3.83655	6.6592
1990.70833	3.65992	6.25018
1990.79167	3.45103	5.53842
1990.875	2.95655	5.18501
1990.95833	1.71384	5.39327
1991.04167	1.11389	5.01499
1991.125	1.03375	4.76166
1991.20833	1.20234	4.79046
1991.29167	1.13578	4.3732
1991.375	1.01046	4.10051
1991.45833	0.38634	3.9301
1991.54167	-0.35444	3.36991
1991.625	-0.83296	2.65532
1991.70833	-1.178	3.03064
1991.79167	-1.72744	3.41716
1991.875	-1.89116	3.88918
1991.95833	-1.26221	4.12695

Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Response of Consumer Credit and Bank Credit to a Macroprudential Easing (log level x 100)

Period	G19	Bank credit
1	0.00041	0.00155
2	0.00081	0.00186
3	0.00127	0.00289
4	0.00146	0.00416
5	0.00176	0.0046
6	0.00199	0.00487
7	0.0022	0.00518
8	0.00239	0.00536
9	0.00257	0.00545
10	0.00273	0.00553
11	0.00287	0.00559
12	0.003	0.00562
13	0.00312	0.00564
14	0.00323	0.00566
15	0.00333	0.00567
16	0.00342	0.00568
17	0.0035	0.00568
18	0.00357	0.00569
19	0.00363	0.00569
20	0.00369	0.00569
21	0.00375	0.00569
22	0.0038	0.00569
23	0.00384	0.00569
24	0.00388	0.00569
25	0.00392	0.00569

Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: Response of Consumer Credit and Bank Credit to a Macroprudential Tightening (log level x 100)

Period	G19	Bank credit
1	-0.00123	-0.00144
2	-0.00137	-0.00384
3	-0.00276	-0.00452
4	-0.00279	-0.00498
5	-0.00337	-0.00555
6	-0.00376	-0.00586
7	-0.0041	-0.00601
8	-0.00444	-0.00616
9	-0.00474	-0.00626
10	-0.00501	-0.00631
11	-0.00525	-0.00635
12	-0.00547	-0.00638
13	-0.00567	-0.0064
14	-0.00585	-0.00641
15	-0.00602	-0.00642
16	-0.00617	-0.00643
17	-0.0063	-0.00643
18	-0.00642	-0.00644
19	-0.00654	-0.00644
20	-0.00664	-0.00644
21	-0.00673	-0.00644
22	-0.00681	-0.00644
23	-0.00689	-0.00644
24	-0.00695	-0.00644
25	-0.00701	-0.00644

Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: Response of Consumer Credit and Bank Credit to an Easing of Reserve Requirements (log level x 100)

Period	G19 (all data)	G19 (1948-1980)	Bank credit (all data)	Bank credit (1948-1980)
1	-0.0004	0.00011	0.00333	0.00355
2	-0.00149	-0.0005	0.004	0.00436
3	-0.00186	1e-05	0.0056	0.00613
4	-0.00176	0.00151	0.0054	0.00621
5	-0.00203	0.00213	0.00531	0.00624
6	-0.00211	0.00271	0.00569	0.00671
7	-0.00223	0.00324	0.00581	0.00691
8	-0.00233	0.00363	0.00579	0.00694
9	-0.00242	0.00396	0.00586	0.00705
10	-0.00251	0.00422	0.00592	0.00715
11	-0.00258	0.00443	0.00593	0.00718
12	-0.00264	0.0046	0.00595	0.00721
13	-0.0027	0.00474	0.00597	0.00724
14	-0.00275	0.00486	0.00598	0.00726
15	-0.0028	0.00495	0.00598	0.00727
16	-0.00284	0.00502	0.00599	0.00728
17	-0.00288	0.00508	0.00599	0.00729
18	-0.00292	0.00513	0.006	0.00729
19	-0.00295	0.00517	0.006	0.00729
20	-0.00298	0.0052	0.006	0.0073
21	-0.003	0.00523	0.006	0.0073
22	-0.00302	0.00525	0.006	0.0073
23	-0.00304	0.00526	0.006	0.0073
24	-0.00306	0.00528	0.006	0.0073
25	-0.00308	0.00529	0.006	0.0073

Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: Response of Consumer Credit and Bank Credit to a Tightening of Reserve Requirements (log level x 100)

Period	G19 (all data)	G19 (1948-1980)	Bank credit (all data)	Bank credit (1948-1980)
1	0.00221	0.00249	-0.00168	-0.00186
2	0.00332	0.0036	-0.00436	-0.00492
3	0.00239	0.00261	-0.00398	-0.00489
4	0.00061	0.00114	-0.00509	-0.00652
5	-0.00012	0.00051	-0.00625	-0.00796
6	-0.00117	-0.00013	-0.0065	-0.00832
7	-0.002	-0.00068	-0.00674	-0.00872
8	-0.00275	-0.00109	-0.00709	-0.00921
9	-0.00344	-0.00143	-0.00727	-0.00945
10	-0.00404	-0.00171	-0.00736	-0.00959
11	-0.00459	-0.00194	-0.00747	-0.00974
12	-0.00509	-0.00212	-0.00754	-0.00985
13	-0.00553	-0.00226	-0.00758	-0.00991
14	-0.00592	-0.00238	-0.00762	-0.00996
15	-0.00628	-0.00248	-0.00764	-0.01
16	-0.0066	-0.00256	-0.00766	-0.01003
17	-0.00688	-0.00262	-0.00767	-0.01005
18	-0.00714	-0.00267	-0.00768	-0.01006
19	-0.00737	-0.00271	-0.00769	-0.01007
20	-0.00758	-0.00275	-0.0077	-0.01008
21	-0.00776	-0.00277	-0.0077	-0.01009
22	-0.00793	-0.00279	-0.0077	-0.01009
23	-0.00808	-0.00281	-0.0077	-0.01009
24	-0.00821	-0.00283	-0.0077	-0.01009
25	-0.00833	-0.00284	-0.00771	-0.0101

Return to Figure 8

Figure 9: Credit Growth During the Period of Selective Credit Controls 1945-1955 (Percent)

Date	Consumer Credit	Bank Credit	Reg W Tightening Count	Reg W Tightening Date	Reg W Easing Count	Reg W Easing Date
1945.04167			1	1941.70833	1	1945.45833
1945.125			2	1942.20833	2	1945.79167
1945.20833			3	1942.375	3	1946.95833
1945.29167			4	1946.70833	4	1947.875
1945.375			5	1948.70833	5	1949.20833
1945.45833			6	1950.70833	6	1949.29167
1945.54167			7	1950.79167	7	1949.54167
1945.625					8	1951.54167
1945.70833					9	1952.375
1945.79167
1945.875
1945.95833
1946.04167	16.09581
1946.125	21.38756
1946.20833	23.60217
1946.29167	31.36285
1946.375	34.38236
1946.45833	35.01972
1946.54167	38.00445
1946.625	44.70609
1946.70833	49.34269
1946.79167	49.95111
1946.875	51.22876
1946.95833	43.81605
1947.04167	50.20678
1947.125	49.11542
1947.20833	47.68464
1947.29167	45.174
1947.375	45.05735
1947.45833	44.57687
1947.54167	43.24014
1947.625	38.79715
1947.70833	37.91688
1947.79167	37.2115
1947.875	35.97843
1947.95833	36.11876
1948.04167	35.39743	1.35506
1948.125	34.04996	1.4243
1948.20833	34.55765	0.47458
1948.29167	33.98679	0.55969
1948.375	32.71007	0.98987
1948.45833	32.68526	0.77089
1948.54167	32.36068	0.91763
1948.625	31.48434	0.88248
1948.70833	30.81541	-1.23733
1948.79167	27.64828	-1.76824
1948.875	24.47965	-1.79222
1948.95833	22.92853	-1.6928
1949.04167	20.20698	-1.65577
1949.125	18.37433	-1.47916
1949.20833	15.60067	-1.1784
1949.29167	15.0665	-1.07449
1949.375	14.74314	-0.30124
1949.45833	14.11545	0.24283
1949.54167	13.4261	1.07722
1949.625	13.95825	2.8528
1949.70833	14.05147	5.19179
1949.79167	15.67242	5.99389
1949.875	18.15374	5.9325
1949.95833	18.78733	6.07906
1950.04167	19.80417	6.75508
1950.125	21.00217	7.14426
1950.20833	22.62971	7.7652
1950.29167	22.75729	7.52634
1950.375	23.94264	6.94443
1950.45833	25.2531	7.23561
1950.54167	29.45414	6.11813
1950.625	30.95733	4.48059
1950.70833	30.94851	3.41056
1950.79167	28.97072	3.09782
1950.875	26.1586	3.48924
1950.95833	23.74256	4.24679
1951.04167	24.91588	2.89722
1951.125	24.45745	2.20852
1951.20833	23.03646	2.54723
1951.29167	19.49435	2.6756
1951.375	16.35753	2.19419
1951.45833	12.88994	2.40535
1951.54167	7.33622	2.85785
1951.625	5.33168	2.9574
1951.70833	3.99929	3.8507
1951.79167	4.49957	4.55543
1951.875	5.93802	5.26872
1951.95833	6.02173	5.10201
1952.04167	4.22017	6.05699
1952.125	4.32404	6.79267
1952.20833	3.76673	6.6776
1952.29167	6.11351	6.41631
1952.375	8.96691	6.73269
1952.45833	12.25368	7.1831
1952.54167	14.77901	8.00605
1952.625	14.7397	7.88824
1952.70833	15.65048	6.95293
1952.79167	17.3279	7.11002
1952.875	17.89551	7.69692
1952.95833	20.53598	7.10432
1953.04167	22.89179	6.35639
1953.125	22.80027	5.8694
1953.20833	25.5747	5.32741
1953.29167	25.71346	4.59503
1953.375	24.03878	3.64526
1953.45833	21.44501	2.6343
1953.54167	20.51473	3.85327
1953.625	20.35691	4.59294
1953.70833	19.32522	4.60191
1953.79167	17.49577	3.48743
1953.875	15.52268	2.74167
1953.95833	13.51261	2.99904
1954.04167	11.76332	3.21832
1954.125	9.11334	2.90713
1954.20833	5.90531	2.41039
1954.29167	4.94779	3.22475
1954.375	3.92516	4.60087
1954.45833	4.04226	5.10148
1954.54167	3.85731	3.08907
1954.625	2.87049	3.91296
1954.70833	2.65097	5.13011
1954.79167	2.63154	6.90418
1954.875	3.12978	6.99851
1954.95833	3.95111	7.67527

Return to Figure 9

Figure 10: Response of Consumer Credit and Bank Credit to a Macroprudential Tightening (log level)

Period	G19	Bank credit
1	-0.00246	-0.00658
2	-0.01247	-0.00366
3	-0.02085	-0.00015
4	-0.02591	-0.00062
5	-0.03173	-0.0013
6	-0.03584	-0.00065
7	-0.03981	-0.00016
8	-0.04295	-0.00026
9	-0.04576	-0.00031
10	-0.04809	-0.00018
11	-0.05012	-0.00011
12	-0.05183	-0.00013
13	-0.0533	-0.00013
14	-0.05455	-0.0001
15	-0.05562	-9e-05
16	-0.05653	-9e-05
17	-0.0573	-9e-05
18	-0.05797	-9e-05
19	-0.05854	-9e-05
20	-0.05902	-9e-05
21	-0.05943	-9e-05
22	-0.05978	-9e-05
23	-0.06008	-8e-05
24	-0.06034	-8e-05
25	-0.06056	-8e-05

Return to Figure 10

Figure 11: Response of Consumer Credit and Bank Credit to a Macroprudential Easing (log level)

Period	G19	Bank credit
1	0.00653	0.00286
2	0.00955	0.00959
3	0.01875	0.01566
4	0.0126	0.01892
5	0.01664	0.02061
6	0.0149	0.02211
7	0.01617	0.02329
8	0.01581	0.02394
9	0.01625	0.02432
10	0.01624	0.02464
11	0.01643	0.02487
12	0.0165	0.025
13	0.0166	0.02509
14	0.01666	0.02516
15	0.01673	0.0252
16	0.01678	0.02523
17	0.01683	0.02525
18	0.01686	0.02526
19	0.0169	0.02527
20	0.01692	0.02528
21	0.01695	0.02528
22	0.01697	0.02528
23	0.01699	0.02528
24	0.017	0.02529
25	0.01701	0.02529

Return to Figure 11

Figure 12: Response of Macroprudential Policy to a Shock to Credit Growth (Probability of action)

Period	Tightening	Easing
1	-0.01378	0.07434
2	0.02786	-0.00342
3	0.01359	-0.1106
4	0.00754	0.01533
5	0	0.01853
6	-0.00078	-0.00718
7	-8e-05	-0.00239
8	8e-05	0.00198
9	2e-05	9e-05
10	-1e-05	-0.00043
11	0	7e-05
12	0	7e-05

Return to Figure 12

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