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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 201416 ♣

Using Data on Seller Behavior to Forecast Short-run House Price Changes

Elliot Anenberg and Steven Laufer

Figure 1: Stock Price Response to Case-Shiller Index Release

stockprice caseshiller surprise
0.0003182 -0.0034439
-0.0028854 -0.0034439
-0.0026641 -0.0034439
-0.0045748 -0.0034439
-0.0047756 -0.0034439
-0.0041268 -0.0034439
-0.0019428 0.0126761
-0.0040267 0.0126761
0.0026988 0.0126761
0.0044563 0.0126761
-0.0003972 0.0126761
-0.006825 0.0126761
0.0020917 -0.000185
0.0018095 -0.000185
0.0277903 -0.000185
0.0222486 -0.000185
0.0039111 -0.000185
0.0066606 -0.000185
-0.007163 0.0038608
-0.0005632 0.0038608
-0.0016243 0.0038608
-0.0037163 0.0038608
0.0105709 0.0038608
0.0026584 0.0038608
0.0056642 0.0393487
0.0106604 0.0393487
0.0421717 0.0393487
0.0150353 0.0393487
0.0070676 0.0393487
0.0160179 0.0393487
-0.0041262 -0.0060433
-0.0049765 -0.0060433
-0.014479 -0.0060433
-0.007756 -0.0060433
-0.0081994 -0.0060433
-0.0091492 -0.0060433
0.0065979 -0.0054535
0.0056101 -0.0054535
0.0277253 -0.0054535
0.0041255 -0.0054535
0.0233035 -0.0054535
0.0323709 -0.0054535
0.0009455 0.0021111
-0.0093772 0.0021111
-0.0019466 0.0021111
-0.0034264 0.0021111
-0.0195021 0.0021111
-0.0064577 0.0021111
-0.0017073 -0.0022388
-0.0017815 -0.0022388
-0.0047856 -0.0022388
0.0008336 -0.0022388
-0.0022282 -0.0022388
0.0010221 -0.0022388
0.0063494 -0.0006936
0.0040831 -0.0006936
0.0045011 -0.0006936
0.0068215 -0.0006936
0.0049946 -0.0006936
0.0056695 -0.0006936
-0.0025142 -0.0077982
-0.0027572 -0.0077982
0.0206884 -0.0077982
0.0063457 -0.0077982
-0.0070143 -0.0077982
-0.0069302 -0.0077982
-0.0034835 -0.0013249
-0.0009282 -0.0013249
-0.0096845 -0.0013249
-0.0068387 -0.0013249
-0.0115223 -0.0013249
-0.0129708 -0.0013249
0.0009173 -0.0013249
-0.0144872 -0.0053315
-0.0203385 -0.0053315
-0.0074052 -0.0053315
-0.0080902 -0.0053315
-0.0164586 -0.0053315
-0.0128363 -0.0053315
-0.0075506 0.0003226
-0.0013807 0.0003226
-0.0028052 0.0003226
0.0010544 0.0003226
-0.0021476 0.0003226
-0.0023554 0.0003226
0.0021172 0.0049622
0.0008887 0.0049622
0.026032 0.0049622
0.0533471 0.0049622
0.0066825 0.0049622
0.0122069 0.0049622
0.0034747 -0.001696
0.0024732 -0.001696
0.0043939 -0.001696
0.0004071 -0.001696
0.0009926 -0.001696
0.0037607 -0.001696
0.000376 0.0003226
-0.0053515 0.0003226
0.0022247 0.0003226
0.0179508 0.0003226
-0.0018561 0.0003226
-0.0091984 0.0003226
0.0013749 0.0105606
0.0018419 0.0105606
0.0163127 0.0105606
0.0026141 0.0105606
-0.0005876 0.0105606
0.0026141 0.0105606
0.0028447 -0.0099736
0.0041721 -0.0099736
-0.0033147 -0.0099736
-0.0037357 -0.0099736
-0.0065389 -0.0099736
-0.012319 -0.0099736
0.0096709 0.0042289
0.0085195 0.0042289
0.0035863 0.0042289
0.0084525 0.0042289
0.0042921 0.0042289
0.010305 0.0042289
-0.0078167 0.0042289
0.0009694 0.0028546
0.0023324 0.0028546
0.0008396 0.0028546
0.0016216 0.0028546
0.0009005 0.0028546
0.0029475 0.0028546
-0.00046 -0.001061
-0.0213122 -0.001061
-0.0034288 -0.001061
-0.0055795 -0.001061
-0.00046 -0.001061
-0.0052562 -0.001061
-0.0016481 0.0052198
-0.0003505 0.0052198
-0.004477 0.0052198
0.0132718 0.0052198
-0.0016481 0.0052198
-0.0005733 0.0052198
-0.0058966 -0.0012943
0.0059924 -0.0012943
0.0109152 -0.0012943
0.0048375 -0.0012943
0.0031457 -0.0012943
0.0074797 -0.0012943
0.0057366 0.008614
0.000339 0.008614
0.0068429 0.008614
0.0057998 0.008614
-0.0041462 0.008614
0.0056045 0.008614
0.0036909 0.0136126
-0.0050538 0.0136126
0.0093602 0.0136126
0.0410806 0.0136126
0.0004081 0.0136126
0.0026866 0.0136126
0.0031686 0.0040473
-0.0032644 0.0040473
-0.0121022 0.0040473
-0.0013153 0.0040473
0.0007841 0.0040473
0.0007535 0.0040473
0.002531 0.0128302
-0.0012594 0.0128302
0.0177879 0.0128302
-0.0037501 0.0128302
-0.005043 0.0128302
0.0027418 0.0128302
0.0085799 -0.0048556
0.0053376 -0.0048556
0.0052775 -0.0048556
-0.0044076 -0.0048556
-0.0001036 -0.0048556
-0.0010552 -0.0048556
Return to Figure 1

Figure 2: Case-Shiller House Price Index

  Phoenix LA Seattle
Jan-08 1 1 1
Feb-08 0.95923581028546 0.95731028029054 0.990254377271226
Mar-08 0.927302010440964 0.922908961276236 0.981665014866204
Apr-08 0.895979118071754 0.902143398244285 0.988712696839555
May-08 0.873708763745418 0.884719932266833 0.983757295452043
Jun-08 0.850771964900589 0.872064524753799 0.981609954850787
Jul-08 0.828001777185383 0.858027717124905 0.971864332122013
Aug-08 0.804342996778852 0.843010561026692 0.964871710164079
Sep-08 0.77635232700211 0.822334120582862 0.951547186433212
Oct-08 0.750749750083306 0.801301189786551 0.93849796277943
Nov-08 0.724980562034877 0.783610356044739 0.915262636273538
Dec-08 0.688270576474509 0.763780580188049 0.882006386961788
Jan-09 0.650505387093191 0.742168352568959 0.850016518004625
Feb-09 0.621737198711541 0.727106635176686 0.837628014535844
Mar-09 0.593802065978007 0.71694666013101 0.820669529787468
Apr-09 0.580084416305676 0.710173343433893 0.822486510296223
May-09 0.57514161946018 0.709326678846754 0.820173989648717
Jun-09 0.581639453515495 0.71699122142507 0.823312410527475
Jul-09 0.592358102854604 0.730671538701484 0.822816870388724
Aug-09 0.602077085415972 0.742480281627378 0.823367470542892
Sep-09 0.606797734088637 0.748763424089836 0.820063869617883
Oct-09 0.614850605353771 0.750545875852235 0.821825790111221
Nov-09 0.621792735754748 0.756294282785972 0.817971589032045
Dec-09 0.624680662001555 0.763691457599929 0.812355467459531
Jan-10 0.620681994890592 0.770776703355465 0.798865763682414
Feb-10 0.611518382761302 0.765607593244508 0.790441581323643
Mar-10 0.60824169721204 0.76026023795731 0.791322541570312
Apr-10 0.611240697545263 0.765473909362328 0.799141063759498
May-10 0.616461179606798 0.778352123345662 0.808391146349521
Jun-10 0.616350105520382 0.7827636914576 0.808446206364938
Jul-10 0.61257358658225 0.785481930395259 0.809602466688691
Aug-10 0.604465178273909 0.78227351722294 0.803490804977425
Sep-10 0.595134955014995 0.781426852635801 0.79875564365158
Oct-10 0.588526046873264 0.775589323113943 0.78807400066072
Nov-10 0.582305898033989 0.772158103471325 0.779484638255699
Dec-10 0.57258691547262 0.76195356713159 0.763682413831076
Jan-11 0.5639231367322 0.757007263490932 0.745567668758947
Feb-11 0.559868932578029 0.749654649971035 0.731472304812245
Mar-11 0.556869932244807 0.747515707856156 0.732133024997247
Apr-11 0.557369765633678 0.749431843500735 0.744081048342693
May-11 0.557591913806509 0.753397798672073 0.75189957053188
Jun-11 0.559202488059536 0.756026915021612 0.756854971919392
Jul-11 0.558369432411418 0.757764805489952 0.757460632088977
Aug-11 0.557758524936132 0.754779198787933 0.75481775134897
Sep-11 0.556592247028768 0.748629740207656 0.74655874903645
Oct-11 0.558369432411418 0.737533977986721 0.739015526924347
Nov-11 0.561590580917472 0.730448732231184 0.730371104503909
Dec-11 0.56597800733089 0.722338576712268 0.72123114194472
Jan-12 0.571142952349217 0.716322802014171 0.715945380464707
Feb-12 0.578251693879818 0.710886324138853 0.710219138861359
Mar-12 0.590803065644785 0.711777550020052 0.722552582314723
Apr-12 0.605409308008442 0.722650505770688 0.736923246338509
May-12 0.621570587581917 0.73864801033822 0.756359431780641
Jun-12 0.636898811507275 0.751169733969074 0.770234555665675
Jul-12 0.651005220482062 0.76115146383851 0.780640898579452
Aug-12 0.662445851382872 0.770999509825765 0.7801453584407
Sep-12 0.670054426302344 0.778931420168442 0.782347759057373
Oct-12 0.679717871820504 0.783610356044739 0.780861138641119
Nov-12 0.689547928468288 0.786818769217058 0.784770399735712
Dec-12 0.696045762523603 0.795820150617174 0.780475718533201
Return to Figure 2

Figure 3: Median Sale-to-List Price Ratio

us ny la chi dallas seattle pho date
0.9604 0.9526 0.9632 0.9509 0.98 0.9643 0.9501 1-Oct-08
0.9572 0.9499 0.9672 0.9472 0.974 0.9625 0.9506 1-Nov-08
0.9547 0.9476 0.969 0.943 0.9747 0.956 0.9505 1-Dec-08
0.9536 0.9441 0.9706 0.9396 0.9749 0.9549 0.9502 1-Jan-09
0.9541 0.9398 0.9711 0.938 0.9766 0.9547 0.9513 1-Feb-09
0.9559 0.9389 0.9734 0.9385 0.9779 0.9584 0.9495 1-Mar-09
0.9586 0.9367 0.976 0.9403 0.9816 0.9607 0.9536 1-Apr-09
0.9619 0.9396 0.9778 0.9424 0.9837 0.9632 0.9592 1-May-09
0.9648 0.9431 0.9808 0.9451 0.9866 0.9664 0.9672 1-Jun-09
0.9666 0.9475 0.9843 0.9458 0.9862 0.9689 0.9765 1-Jul-09
0.9682 0.9494 0.9875 0.9452 0.9881 0.9733 0.99 1-Aug-09
0.9698 0.9504 0.9906 0.9462 0.9928 0.9741 0.9955 1-Sep-09
0.9713 0.9507 0.9937 0.9478 0.9955 0.9747 0.9986 1-Oct-09
0.9721 0.9515 0.9974 0.9496 0.998 0.9755 0.9931 1-Nov-09
0.9711 0.951 0.9973 0.95 0.9953 0.9745 0.9902 1-Dec-09
0.9692 0.9504 0.9945 0.949 0.9887 0.9718 0.9877 1-Jan-10
0.9677 0.9487 0.9902 0.9492 0.985 0.9736 0.9846 1-Feb-10
0.9686 0.9483 0.9888 0.9491 0.9871 0.9764 0.9831 1-Mar-10
0.9706 0.9496 0.9894 0.9509 0.9914 0.9803 0.9847 1-Apr-10
0.9724 0.9512 0.9901 0.9516 0.9953 0.981 0.9872 1-May-10
0.9722 0.9538 0.9896 0.9511 0.9933 0.9798 0.9879 1-Jun-10
0.9701 0.9554 0.9877 0.9502 0.986 0.9762 0.9849 1-Jul-10
0.9678 0.9554 0.9857 0.9495 0.9791 0.9747 0.9789 1-Aug-10
0.9655 0.9545 0.9837 0.9486 0.9752 0.9741 0.974 1-Sep-10
0.9639 0.9522 0.9829 0.9478 0.974 0.9739 0.9718 1-Oct-10
0.963 0.9507 0.9819 0.9462 0.9725 0.9738 0.9722 1-Nov-10
0.9624 0.9498 0.9811 0.9453 0.9697 0.9718 0.9705 1-Dec-10
0.9622 0.9477 0.9811 0.9443 0.9677 0.9704 0.9699 1-Jan-11
0.9626 0.947 0.9806 0.9453 0.968 0.9713 0.9712 1-Feb-11
0.9634 0.9462 0.98 0.9459 0.972 0.9767 0.9709 1-Mar-11
0.9639 0.946 0.9802 0.9481 0.973 0.9791 0.9714 1-Apr-11
0.9653 0.9477 0.9808 0.9489 0.9742 0.9796 0.9755 1-May-11
0.9665 0.9496 0.9807 0.9485 0.976 0.9797 0.9804 1-Jun-11
0.9667 0.9517 0.9794 0.9483 0.9762 0.9804 0.9839 1-Jul-11
0.9661 0.9531 0.9792 0.9472 0.9751 0.9797 0.9845 1-Aug-11
0.9656 0.9515 0.9787 0.9469 0.976 0.9799 0.9846 1-Sep-11
0.9651 0.9495 0.9793 0.9466 0.9767 0.9793 0.9849 1-Oct-11
0.9648 0.9472 0.9794 0.9461 0.975 0.9783 0.9837 1-Nov-11
0.9642 0.9469 0.9793 0.9458 0.9759 0.9781 0.981 1-Dec-11
0.9637 0.946 0.9785 0.9464 0.9764 0.977 0.979 1-Jan-12
0.9642 0.9452 0.9797 0.9469 0.9773 0.9777 0.9805 1-Feb-12
0.9661 0.9453 0.9805 0.948 0.98 0.9803 0.9837 1-Mar-12
0.9685 0.9472 0.9828 0.9495 0.9851 0.9842 0.988 1-Apr-12
0.9711 0.95 0.9856 0.9518 0.9883 0.989 0.9928 1-May-12
0.9728 0.9529 0.9889 0.9541 0.987 0.9918 0.9973 1-Jun-12
0.9737 0.955 0.9925 0.9556 0.9853 0.9933 0.9994 1-Jul-12
0.9738 0.957 0.9938 0.9561 0.9833 0.9939 1 1-Aug-12
0.9735 0.9569 0.9942 0.9573 0.9816 0.993 0.9979 1-Sep-12
0.9732 0.9561 0.9936 0.9567 0.9816 0.9938 0.9956 1-Oct-12
0.9733 0.9555 0.9967 0.9561 0.9792 0.9917 0.9916 1-Nov-12
0.9728 0.955 0.999 0.9563 0.9769 0.9901 0.9877 1-Dec-12
0.9723 0.9548 1 0.9563 0.9794 0.9901 0.9846 1-Jan-13
0.9738 0.9542 1 0.9575 0.9829 0.9945 0.9826 1-Feb-13
Return to Figure 3

Figure 4: List Price of Withdrawals Relative to List Price of Sales

ratiola ratiopho ratioseattle quarter/year
0.1566834 0.1447995 0.0503446 2
0.0879812 0.1548971 0.0637859 3
0.1004974 0.18189 0.0733364 4
0.1086109 0.2112855 0.1097081 5
0.1094798 0.2015991 0.1286236 6
0.0585251 0.1549418 0.0848674 7
0.0499855 0.0860988 0.0711811 8
0.0323213 0.0649396 0.0983297 9
-0.0115315 0.021548 0.0370507 10
-0.0172364 0.0149891 0.0312574 11
-0.0136076 0.011478 0.049006 12
0.0397338 0.0290917 0.063565 13
0.0190799 -0.0351487 0.0246996 14
-0.005416 -0.0138224 -0.0264875 15
0.0272416 -0.0240127 0.0180612 16
0.0615395 -0.0192091 -7.71e-05 17
0.0258352 -0.0077251 0.0161182 18
0.0005725 -0.0162137 -0.0064043 19
Return to Figure 4

Figure 5: Share of Delistings that Result in Sales

sharela sharepho shareseattle quarter/year
0.2282963 0.2579305 0.4518686 2
0.2797996 0.3573331 0.4447147 3
0.2860061 0.3147586 0.3908181 4
0.2515505 0.324859 0.2628051 5
0.3358567 0.4373496 0.1936773 6
0.3983469 0.5163291 0.3300226 7
0.3877178 0.5110837 0.3900499 8
0.3328106 0.4846539 0.4349707 9
0.2801345 0.5106655 0.5155485 10
0.3539039 0.4945813 0.4794725 11
0.3097683 0.4676287 0.3724301 12
0.3052777 0.3974037 0.3306319 13
0.3388852 0.5248639 0.4295528 14
0.3893882 0.5534897 0.4975253 15
0.3935162 0.5928759 0.4645924 16
0.3775924 0.5480691 0.4142582 17
0.428796 0.5914801 0.3274962 18
0.4798204 0.5476639 0.4760283 19
Return to Figure 5

Figure 6: Lag Between Delisting and Closing Dates

25th percentile 50th percentile 75th percentile quarter/year
19 31 46 2
15 29 43 3
8 27 41 4
12 28 46 5
7 29 48 6
5 29 49 7
5 27 46 8
12 28 46 9
14 32 48 10
7 28 43 11
6 27 43 12
12 28 48 13
14 29 47 14
11 28 46 15
8 28 48 16
17 34 56 17
Return to Figure 6

Figure 7: Share of Sales Transactions Appearing in the Listings Data

matchratiola matchratiopho matchratioseattle quarter/year
0.888574 0.7527208 0.8215264 6
0.8868275 0.7733905 0.8223684 7
0.8714154 0.7508777 0.8325749 8
0.861257 0.7212652 0.8299858 9
0.8510213 0.7670097 0.8335078 10
0.8588074 0.8248426 0.8221821 11
0.8689896 0.8386195 0.8246865 12
0.8840259 0.854165 0.8351537 13
0.8873305 0.8450481 0.8502911 14
0.8971233 0.8382941 0.8632594 15
0.9038662 0.8248892 0.8639364 16
0.8840169 0.7346848 0.8657949 17
0.8545653 0.6965752 0.8461539 18
0.8348489 0.6884802 0.8448305 19
0.8269797 0.6583536 0.8346754 20
0.8366725 0.6666667 0.809375 21
Return to Figure 7

Figure 8: Zero-weeks-ahead Forecast of List-Price Index

case shiller adjusted list price index time city
-0.0254517 -0.0219976 1-Apr-09 la
-0.0071214 -0.0176578 1-May-09 la
0.0061077 -0.0051036 1-Jun-09 la
0.0100343 -0.0012688 1-Jul-09 la
0.0135417 0.0059285 1-Aug-09 la
0.0090668 0.0104898 1-Sep-09 la
0.0072724 0.0124893 1-Oct-09 la
0.0029142 0.0119879 1-Nov-09 la
0.0014538 0.0105128 1-Dec-09 la
-1.63e-05 0.0086131 1-Jan-10 la
0.0005609 0.0005195 1-Feb-10 la
-0.0045797 -0.0139201 1-Mar-10 la
-0.0159958 -0.0275014 1-Apr-10 la
-0.0052291 -0.0164343 1-May-10 la
0.0198006 0.0020155 1-Jun-10 la
0.0248001 0.0132146 1-Jul-10 la
0.0097138 0.0105466 1-Aug-10 la
-0.0064015 0.003903 1-Sep-10 la
-0.0122402 0.0016501 1-Oct-10 la
-0.0144926 -0.0027535 1-Nov-10 la
-0.0148652 -0.0063817 1-Dec-10 la
-0.0195261 -0.0064256 1-Jan-11 la
-0.0235922 -0.0054475 1-Feb-11 la
-0.0226287 -0.0068588 1-Mar-11 la
-0.0216662 -0.0154049 1-Apr-11 la
0.000901 -0.0113045 1-May-11 la
0.0217805 -0.002869 1-Jun-11 la
0.0171896 -0.0019614 1-Jul-11 la
0.0023907 -0.0029398 1-Aug-11 la
-0.0125891 -0.002381 1-Sep-11 la
-0.0158132 0.0012022 1-Oct-11 la
-0.0162054 0.0085381 1-Nov-11 la
-0.0159883 0.0087107 1-Dec-11 la
-0.013392 0.003745 1-Jan-12 la
-0.01223 -0.0057111 1-Feb-12 la
-0.0178336 -0.0080274 1-Mar-12 la
-0.0070692 -0.0067073 1-Apr-12 la
0.0248046 5.07e-05 1-May-12 la
0.0360071 0.0108882 1-Jun-12 la
0.0299636 0.0110853 1-Jul-12 la
0.0167234 0.0128361 1-Aug-12 la
0.0136011 0.0200287 1-Sep-12 la
0.0129544 0.0294766 1-Oct-12 la
0.0120092 0.0283796 1-Nov-12 la
0.014016 0.0177953 1-Dec-12 la
0.011912 0.0080005 1-Jan-13 la
-0.0658271 -0.0477693 1-Apr-09 pho
-0.0555327 -0.0386941 1-May-09 pho
-0.0217603 -0.0256186 1-Jun-09 pho
0.0024053 -0.0032134 1-Jul-09 pho
0.0137466 0.0161101 1-Aug-09 pho
0.0100197 0.0154619 1-Sep-09 pho
-0.0056862 0.0005727 1-Oct-09 pho
-0.0155541 -0.0158406 1-Nov-09 pho
-0.009139 -0.0169819 1-Dec-09 pho
-8.3e-05 -0.0049155 1-Jan-10 pho
0.0018405 -0.0034246 1-Feb-10 pho
-0.0058494 -0.0114269 1-Mar-10 pho
-0.0105009 -0.0257441 1-Apr-10 pho
-0.0111649 -0.0269256 1-May-10 pho
-0.0109763 -0.0152313 1-Jun-10 pho
-0.0101784 -0.0048861 1-Jul-10 pho
-0.0192358 0.0041908 1-Aug-10 pho
-0.021966 -0.0039085 1-Sep-10 pho
-0.0372505 -0.0263776 1-Oct-10 pho
-0.0349851 -0.0374678 1-Nov-10 pho
-0.0233318 -0.0287061 1-Dec-10 pho
-0.0186895 -0.0140327 1-Jan-11 pho
-0.0093933 -0.0110684 1-Feb-11 pho
-0.0124371 -0.0165768 1-Mar-11 pho
-0.0085185 -0.0265391 1-Apr-11 pho
-0.0035617 -0.021229 1-May-11 pho
-0.0031106 -0.0094522 1-Jun-11 pho
-0.0089046 0.0028195 1-Jul-11 pho
-0.0141377 0.0070689 1-Aug-11 pho
-0.0189806 0.000926 1-Sep-11 pho
-0.0205916 -0.0083933 1-Oct-11 pho
-0.0161179 -0.0100881 1-Nov-11 pho
0.0031485 0.0042118 1-Dec-11 pho
0.0214827 0.0194347 1-Jan-12 pho
0.0175075 0.0234078 1-Feb-12 pho
0.0125497 0.0199572 1-Mar-12 pho
0.0224833 0.0235998 1-Apr-12 pho
0.0420966 0.0386964 1-May-12 pho
0.0485043 0.0444705 1-Jun-12 pho
0.0404096 0.0458152 1-Jul-12 pho
0.0267012 0.0445009 1-Aug-12 pho
0.0189464 0.0365273 1-Sep-12 pho
0.0195901 0.0269522 1-Oct-12 pho
0.0192124 0.0191736 1-Nov-12 pho
0.013982 0.0133672 1-Dec-12 pho
0.0067548 0.0101059 1-Jan-13 pho
-0.0272971 -0.0178145 1-Apr-09 seattle
-0.0158216 -0.0259778 1-May-09 seattle
-0.0077843 -0.0188282 1-Jun-09 seattle
-0.0032652 -0.0090491 1-Jul-09 seattle
0.0020282 0.0015113 1-Aug-09 seattle
0.0039614 -0.0015168 1-Sep-09 seattle
-0.0034516 -0.0082434 1-Oct-09 seattle
-0.0117899 -0.013757 1-Nov-09 seattle
-0.0109203 -0.0161977 1-Dec-09 seattle
-0.0136058 -0.012916 1-Jan-10 seattle
-0.0141355 -0.0104765 1-Feb-10 seattle
-0.0182452 -0.014343 1-Mar-10 seattle
-0.0075538 -0.0180413 1-Apr-10 seattle
0.0084574 -0.007557 1-May-10 seattle
0.0140266 0.0082417 1-Jun-10 seattle
0.0040483 0.0082003 1-Jul-10 seattle
-0.0049909 0.0035067 1-Aug-10 seattle
-0.0096481 -0.0024949 1-Sep-10 seattle
-0.0123869 -0.0035506 1-Oct-10 seattle
-0.0126803 -0.009447 1-Nov-10 seattle
-0.0174122 -0.0195945 1-Dec-10 seattle
-0.0264235 -0.0244724 1-Jan-11 seattle
-0.03483 -0.0267042 1-Feb-11 seattle
-0.0262692 -0.0320516 1-Mar-11 seattle
-0.0263292 -0.0448503 1-Apr-11 seattle
-0.0117864 -0.0336623 1-May-11 seattle
0.0034866 -0.0081455 1-Jun-11 seattle
0.0079644 0.0035222 1-Jul-11 seattle
0.0143463 0.0107537 1-Aug-11 seattle
0.0056241 0.0032701 1-Sep-11 seattle
-0.0075441 -0.0084395 1-Oct-11 seattle
-0.0179752 -0.0134502 1-Nov-11 seattle
-0.0188756 -0.0154755 1-Dec-11 seattle
-0.0238145 -0.0194312 1-Jan-12 seattle
-0.0231999 -0.0304472 1-Feb-12 seattle
-0.0209151 -0.0280071 1-Mar-12 seattle
0.0004102 -0.0099326 1-Apr-12 seattle
0.0293872 0.0092019 1-May-12 seattle
0.0415867 0.0177512 1-Jun-12 seattle
0.0504885 0.0257185 1-Jul-12 seattle
0.0391712 0.0292608 1-Aug-12 seattle
0.0203461 0.0258179 1-Sep-12 seattle
0.0009391 0.0175861 1-Oct-12 seattle
-0.0052368 0.0093855 1-Nov-12 seattle
-6.53e-05 0.0072293 1-Dec-12 seattle
0.0087007 0.0010316 1-Jan-13 seattle
  -0.003651 1-Feb-13 seattle
Return to Figure 8

Figure 9: Five-weeks-ahead Forecast of List-Price Index

case shiller adjusted list price index time city
-0.0850738 -0.0348965 1-Apr-09 la
-0.0490082 -0.0358351 1-May-09 la
-0.019344 -0.0244942 1-Jun-09 la
0.0029128 -0.0114108 1-Jul-09 la
0.0196494 0.0004511 1-Aug-09 la
0.019101 0.0120568 1-Sep-09 la
0.0208141 0.019711 1-Oct-09 la
0.011981 0.0232344 1-Nov-09 la
0.0087261 0.0227801 1-Dec-09 la
0.0028979 0.0231869 1-Jan-10 la
0.0020146 0.0155076 1-Feb-10 la
-0.0045961 0.0007828 1-Mar-10 la
-0.0154349 -0.0200832 1-Apr-10 la
-0.0098088 -0.0301892 1-May-10 la
0.0038048 -0.0239488 1-Jun-10 la
0.019571 -0.0032497 1-Jul-10 la
0.0295144 0.0172932 1-Aug-10 la
0.0183985 0.022953 1-Sep-10 la
-0.0025264 0.013647 1-Oct-10 la
-0.0208942 0.0034389 1-Nov-10 la
-0.0271053 -0.0057149 1-Dec-10 la
-0.0340187 -0.0145738 1-Jan-11 la
-0.0384573 -0.0060884 1-Feb-11 la
-0.0421547 -0.005537 1-Mar-11 la
-0.0452583 -0.0219119 1-Apr-11 la
-0.0217276 -0.0148722 1-May-11 la
0.0001143 -0.0169882 1-Jun-11 la
0.0180906 -0.0113637 1-Jul-11 la
0.0241712 0.0002883 1-Aug-11 la
0.0046005 0.0016846 1-Sep-11 la
-0.0134225 0.0003878 1-Oct-11 la
-0.0287945 0.0058444 1-Nov-11 la
-0.0318015 0.0083774 1-Dec-11 la
-0.0295975 0.0095845 1-Jan-12 la
-0.0282183 0.0006849 1-Feb-12 la
-0.0312256 -0.0015551 1-Mar-12 la
-0.0192992 -0.012555 1-Apr-12 la
0.006971 -0.0126374 1-May-12 la
0.0289379 0.0026205 1-Jun-12 la
0.0547681 0.0130142 1-Jul-12 la
0.0527305 0.0218309 1-Aug-12 la
0.0435646 0.026195 1-Sep-12 la
0.0296777 0.0335743 1-Oct-12 la
0.0256103 0.0440646 1-Nov-12 la
0.0269703 0.0436877 1-Dec-12 la
0.0239212 0.0310847 1-Jan-13 la
-0.1312351 -0.0802473 1-Apr-09 pho
-0.1205432 -0.082223 1-May-09 pho
-0.0875875 -0.0750427 1-Jun-09 pho
-0.0531274 -0.0472229 1-Jul-09 pho
-0.0080138 -0.0077134 1-Aug-09 pho
0.0124249 0.0168989 1-Sep-09 pho
0.0080603 0.0245084 1-Oct-09 pho
-0.0055345 0.0020545 1-Nov-09 pho
-0.0148252 -0.0149533 1-Dec-09 pho
-0.0156372 -0.0192923 1-Jan-10 pho
-0.0072985 -0.0156198 1-Feb-10 pho
-0.0059325 -0.008006 1-Mar-10 pho
-0.0086604 -0.0185483 1-Apr-10 pho
-0.0170143 -0.0356781 1-May-10 pho
-0.0214772 -0.0404133 1-Jun-10 pho
-0.0213433 -0.0281842 1-Jul-10 pho
-0.0302122 -0.0113626 1-Aug-10 pho
-0.0321444 -0.0027395 1-Sep-10 pho
-0.0564863 -0.0218377 1-Oct-10 pho
-0.0569511 -0.0416372 1-Nov-10 pho
-0.0605822 -0.0560065 1-Dec-10 pho
-0.0536746 -0.0476184 1-Jan-11 pho
-0.032725 -0.0315748 1-Feb-11 pho
-0.0311266 -0.0281232 1-Mar-11 pho
-0.0179117 -0.034467 1-Apr-11 pho
-0.0159988 -0.0393727 1-May-11 pho
-0.011629 -0.0342733 1-Jun-11 pho
-0.0124663 -0.0175326 1-Jul-11 pho
-0.0172483 -0.0010322 1-Aug-11 pho
-0.0278852 0.003162 1-Sep-11 pho
-0.0347294 -0.0050347 1-Oct-11 pho
-0.0350985 -0.0135846 1-Nov-11 pho
-0.0174431 -0.0116129 1-Dec-11 pho
0.0053648 0.0076459 1-Jan-12 pho
0.020656 0.0272923 1-Feb-12 pho
0.0340324 0.0308586 1-Mar-12 pho
0.0399908 0.0417674 1-Apr-12 pho
0.0546463 0.0530359 1-May-12 pho
0.0709876 0.0614466 1-Jun-12 pho
0.0825062 0.081984 1-Jul-12 pho
0.0752055 0.0878628 1-Aug-12 pho
0.059356 0.0779974 1-Sep-12 pho
0.0462914 0.0681382 1-Oct-12 pho
0.0381588 0.0529009 1-Nov-12 pho
0.0335721 0.0386934 1-Dec-12 pho
0.0259671 0.0275828 1-Jan-13 pho
-0.083813 -0.017711 1-Apr-09 seattle
-0.0588772 -0.0300753 1-May-09 seattle
-0.0350814 -0.0335596 1-Jun-09 seattle
-0.0190868 -0.0281614 1-Jul-09 seattle
-0.0057561 -0.0095114 1-Aug-09 seattle
0.0006962 -0.0005328 1-Sep-09 seattle
-0.0014234 0.0006321 1-Oct-09 seattle
-0.0078285 -0.0130688 1-Nov-09 seattle
-0.0143719 -0.0181198 1-Dec-09 seattle
-0.0253956 -0.0241994 1-Jan-10 seattle
-0.0250558 -0.0209534 1-Feb-10 seattle
-0.0318509 -0.0207801 1-Mar-10 seattle
-0.0216893 -0.0237677 1-Apr-10 seattle
-0.0097878 -0.0224882 1-May-10 seattle
0.0064728 -0.0118352 1-Jun-10 seattle
0.0125057 0.006879 1-Jul-10 seattle
0.0090357 0.0149646 1-Aug-10 seattle
-0.0055998 0.0076044 1-Sep-10 seattle
-0.0173778 0.0006268 1-Oct-10 seattle
-0.0223284 -0.0096614 1-Nov-10 seattle
-0.0297992 -0.0224057 1-Dec-10 seattle
-0.0391037 -0.032043 1-Jan-11 seattle
-0.0522422 -0.0351968 1-Feb-11 seattle
-0.0526927 -0.0415588 1-Mar-11 seattle
-0.0611591 -0.0652667 1-Apr-11 seattle
-0.0380556 -0.0601424 1-May-11 seattle
-0.0228426 -0.0475213 1-Jun-11 seattle
-0.003822 -0.0261751 1-Jul-11 seattle
0.0178329 0.0029246 1-Aug-11 seattle
0.0135885 0.0116336 1-Sep-11 seattle
0.0068022 0.0042785 1-Oct-11 seattle
-0.0123511 -0.0061661 1-Nov-11 seattle
-0.0264197 -0.0171236 1-Dec-11 seattle
-0.0417897 -0.0286682 1-Jan-12 seattle
-0.0420755 -0.0401732 1-Feb-12 seattle
-0.0447296 -0.0512753 1-Mar-12 seattle
-0.0227897 -0.0375862 1-Apr-12 seattle
0.0084721 -0.0205817 1-May-12 seattle
0.0419969 0.0041045 1-Jun-12 seattle
0.0798757 0.0257946 1-Jul-12 seattle
0.0807579 0.0464304 1-Aug-12 seattle
0.0708346 0.05363 1-Sep-12 seattle
0.0401103 0.04718 1-Oct-12 seattle
0.0151093 0.0337698 1-Nov-12 seattle
0.0008739 0.0224707 1-Dec-12 seattle
0.0034639 0.0108165 1-Jan-13 seattle
  0.0035326 1-Feb-13 seattle
Return to Figure 9

Figure 10: Forecast Errors of List-Price Index and CME Futures

cmefutures: upper left--8 weeks in advance adjusted list price index: upper left--8 weeks in advance date :upper left--8 weeks in advance cmefutures: upper right--10 weeks in advance adjusted list price index: upper right--10 weeks in advance date: upper right--10 weeks in advance cmefutures: bottom left--14 weeks in advance adjusted list price index: bottom left--14 weeks in advance date: bottom left--14 weeks in advance
0.0055 -0.0034541 1-Apr-09 0.0055 -0.0210807 1-Apr-09 0.0029925 -0.0501773 1-Apr-09
0.0367268 0.0113031 1-Jul-09 0.0367268 0.018322 1-Jul-09 0.0380645 0.0143236 1-Jul-09
-0.0075059 -0.005217 1-Oct-09 -0.0121765 -0.0055993 1-Oct-09 0.0561635 0.001103 1-Oct-09
0.1058065 -0.0086294 1-Jan-10 0.1246719 -0.0136559 1-Jan-10 0.1276316 -0.0202889 1-Jan-10
0.0403659 0.0115056 1-Apr-10 0.0677096 0.0129461 1-Apr-10 0.0867516 0.0046483 1-Apr-10
0.0177289 0.0115855 1-Jul-10 0.0177289 0.0187272 1-Jul-10 0.0177289 0.0228207 1-Jul-10
0.0043528 -0.0138903 1-Oct-10 0.0315294 -0.0161308 1-Oct-10 0.0327444 -0.0161734 1-Oct-10
0.0058235 -0.0131004 1-Jan-11 0.0058235 -0.0183097 1-Jan-11 0.0275841 -0.0194449 1-Jan-11
0.0180218 -0.0062612 1-Apr-11 0.0229878 -0.0136746 1-Apr-11 0.0229878 -0.0233464 1-Apr-11
0.0257557 0.0191509 1-Jul-11 0.0257557 0.0269564 1-Jul-11 0.0257557 0.0294543 1-Jul-11
0.0181818 -0.0170153 1-Oct-11 0.0181818 -0.017329 1-Oct-11 0.0243902 -0.0138103 1-Oct-11
-0.0054601 -0.0171371 1-Jan-12 -0.0054601 -0.0323918 1-Jan-12 -0.0054601 -0.039182 1-Jan-12
-0.0152281 -0.0003619 1-Apr-12 -0.0152281 0.0028248 1-Apr-12 -0.0152281 -0.0067442 1-Apr-12
0.0167069 0.0188783 1-Jul-12 0.0405556 0.0320047 1-Jul-12 0.0405556 0.0417539 1-Jul-12
0.0011455 -0.0165223 1-Oct-12 0.0011455 -0.0167828 1-Oct-12 0.0150987 -0.0038966 1-Oct-12
0.0263793 0.0039115 1-Jan-13 0.0275604 0.0008514 1-Jan-13 0.0395227 -0.0071635 1-Jan-13
Return to Figure 10
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Last update: August 1, 2014