The Federal Reserve Board eagle logo links to home page

Predicting Cycles in Economic Activity

Jane Haltmaier*

NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Recent IFDPs are available on the Web at http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http://www.ssrn.com/.


Abstract:

Predicting cycles in economic activity is one of the more challenging but important aspects of economic forecasting. This paper reports the results from estimation of binary probit models that predict the probability of an economy being in a recession using a variety of financial and real activity indicators. The models are estimated for eight countries, both individually and using a panel regression. Although the success of the models varies, they are all able to identify a significant number of recessionary periods correctly.

Keywords: Forecasting, turning points, business cycles, economic indicators

JEL classification: E37



1  Introduction

Accurate prediction of cycles in economic activity is one of the more challenging aspects of economic forecasting. At the same time, it is of key importance for policymaking. Expansionary policy may be appropriate when an economy is contracting, but once a turning point has been reached, the authorities may want to begin to shift to a more neutral stance fairly quickly. Similarly, policymakers do not want to allow an economy to overheat, but if a peak has been reached, they may want to switch early to stimulus to prevent a downward spiral. However, because business cycles are often highly influenced by forces that are hard to model, such as consumer and business confidence, structural models often have difficulty capturing cyclical turning points.

An alternative approach for predicting turning points is the estimation of binary probit models, which calculate the probability that an economy is in either an expansion or a contraction. When the estimated probability crosses a specified threshold, a turning point is predicted. This type of approach has been applied to prediction of recessions in U.S. GDP by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), using financial indicators as explanatory variables. Chin, Geweke, and Miller (2000) apply a similar methodology to the prediction of turning points in monthly unemployment rates. These techniques are also similar in some respects to models that assess the probability of financial crises within a specific time period in developing economies.1

This paper uses monthly data from eight countries (the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Korea, and Taiwan) to estimate the probability that these economies will be in either an expansion or contraction in a specific month, with both real and financial indicators as explanatory variables. Specifically, binary probit models in which the dependent variable takes on the value 0 during an expansion and 1 during a recession are estimated using lags of the explanatory variables that range from one to three months, depending on their relative timeliness. The time horizon has been deliberately kept short because the relationships become much less reliable further out. However, the indicators are generally available on a much more timely basis than is GDP; partial monthly data for financial indicators are available nearly in real time. Using indicators that are all lagged by at least one month, it is, for example, possible in October to make an assessment of the probability that an economy is currently in a recession, while fourth-quarter GDP for many regions will not be available until February or March.

As noted above, the model is applied to eight countries, which were chosen mainly because of availability of long time series for the explanatory variables. All of the countries except Mexico have data available back to the 1970s, and Mexico's is available beginning in 1980.

The models were estimated both for the individual countries and using a panel regression. The results vary widely, but overall suggest that this type of model can play a useful role in forecasting cyclical activity. The paper is organized as follows: section 2 describes the data in general terms, with more detail provided in Appendix 1. Section 3 describes and evaluates the individual country models, and section 4 does the same for the panel regression. Section 5 concludes.

2  Data

The recessionary and expansionary periods used in the model are based on monthly business cycle peaks and troughs identified by the NBER for the United States, by Statistics Canada for Canada,2 and by Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) for the other countries. The peaks and troughs for each country are shown in table 1. There are three recessionary periods each for the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Taiwan, four for Japan and Germany, five for the United States and Canada, and six for Mexico. As noted earlier, the dependent variable in the binary probit regressions takes on the value 1 during the recessionary periods and 0 during expansions.

The country-specific explanatory variables fall into five categories: exchange rates (both real and nominal trade-weighted exchange rates were used in alterative versions, as they are too collinear to use in the same regression); the change in a stock price index; the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates, if available, and the change in a short-term interest rate if no long-term rate is available for most of the period; a confidence or other leading indicator; and the change in an activity indicator (industrial production for most countries, employment for Canada because it is available on a more timely basis than industrial production). The change in oil prices (the U.S. spot price of West Texas Intermediate oil, which is available back to 1946) was also used in each initial equation. Most of the data were drawn from the Haver Analytics database, which includes data from the source countries. More details are provided in Appendix 1.

As indicated in table 2, the expected signs for stock prices, leading indicators, and activity variables are unambiguously negative, as improvement in any of these variables should reduce the probability of a recession and vice versa. Interest rate spreads are available back to the 1970s for all of the industrialized countries (the United States, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany), as well as for Taiwan. A decline in this variable (a flattening of the yield curve) should be associated with an increased probability of a recession, so the expected sign is negative. Long-term interest rates were not available for Korea and Mexico for a long period, so the change in a short-term rate was used instead of a spread. The sign on this variable should be positive--a rise in short-term interest rates should be associated with an increased probability of a recession.

The expected signs on both oil prices and exchange rates are ambiguous. Increases in oil prices should increase the probability of a recession for oil-importing countries (resulting in an expected positive sign), but might reduce the probability for an oil exporter (such as Mexico). Declines in nominal exchange rates, particularly for developing countries, often precede a period of negative growth, especially for developing countries, as they may reflect a loss of confidence and may have adverse balance-sheet effects if currency mismatches are widespread. On the other hand, if the real exchange rate also declines, exports would become more competitive, potentially having a stimulative effect on output. However, if prices react quickly to upward pressure from the falling currency, real exchange rates may be little changed in such an episode. Versions of the model were estimated using both real and nominal exchange rates separately and the better version was used.

3  Country Models

3.1  Estimation

Binary probit models were estimated for each of the eight countries, with the recession-expansion indicator as the dependent variable and each of the variables described in the previous section as explanatory variables. The particular lags used for each variable were chosen based on their relative timeliness, which varied by country. For instance, financial variables (exchange rates and interest rates) are generally available one or two months sooner than other variables. Thus, lags from one to six months were included for these variables in the equation. Variables such as industrial production were lagged from two or three months to six months, depending on their timeliness for each country. The final model for each country was obtained by progressively eliminating the lags of the variables that were insignificant or incorrectly signed. This was done twice, once using the nominal exchange rate and again using the real rate. The better-fitting final equation was used in the evaluation. The models were estimated from the earliest available date, which was usually sometime in the mid-1970s, through the end of 2005.

Full estimation results for the final model for each country are shown in Appendix 2. Table 3 is a summary table that shows the level of significance of each coefficient, thus allowing for comparison across countries of which variables are important. Oil prices are important for the United States, the United Kingdom, Korea, and Taiwan. At least one lag of the leading indicator is significant for all of the countries except Canada and Mexico. The yield spread (the change in the short-term interest rate for Korea) is significant all of the countries except Mexico and Taiwan. Stock prices are significant for all of the countries except Korea. Real activity indicators are important for Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and Korea. Exchange rates played a variety of roles. For the United Kingdom and Taiwan, the real exchange rate is positive and significant, indicating that an appreciation increases the probability of a recession, consistent with an important effect of trade on output. The real exchange rate for Mexico, and the nominal rate for Korea are negative and significant, suggesting that for those countries a currency depreciation is associated with a weakening of output.

The fit of the models varies considerably across countries, but is generally better for the advanced economies. McFadden R$ ^{2}$s range from around .4 for Mexico and Taiwan to about .5 for Korea and Japan, .6 for the United States and Germany, to a high of nearly .8 for the United Kingdom.

Charts 1 through 8 show the actual and fitted values from each of the eight equations. Two general observations may be made:

(1) the value of the indicator does appear to increase notably during most of the recessionary periods for most of the countries, but the timing is not usually exact. However, even though the indicator sometimes does not spike in advance, it can still be useful in identifying a recessionary period before it is evident in the data.

(2) there are numerous "false positives".

The next section provides a more rigorous evaluation of the models' performance.

3.2  Evaluation

In order to evaluate the success of the binary probit models in predicting turning points, it is necessary to choose a "threshold" above which the predicted probability is said to be signaling a recession. The choice of the threshold depends largely on the preferences of the policymaker.$ ^{ }$The higher the threshold the greater is the probability of making a Type I error (not predicting a recession that actually occurs), but the lower the probability of making a Type II error (predicting a recession that does not occur). The choice of a threshold will thus depend on the relative weights placed on avoiding the two types of errors.

The methodology used here to choose a threshold follows that used in Bussiere and Fratscher (2006). If the policymaker's loss function is written as:

L = $ \alpha$ x $ \pi_{1 }$(T) + (1-$ \alpha)$ x $ \pi_{2 }$(T)

where $ \pi_{1}$ (T) and $ \pi_{2}$ (T) are the probabilities of making Type I and Type 2 errors, respectively, for each threshold T, then the threshold T that is chosen should be the one that minimizes the loss function for a given $ \alpha$. However, the choice of $ \alpha$ is judgemental.

In order to derive some empirical guidance for the choice of a threshold, the value of the loss function was calculated using the estimated error probabilities from each of the country equations for thresholds for the values from .1 to .9 (increasing by .1) for three values of $ \alpha$: .25, .5, and .75. The results are shown in table 4. For each country and value of $ \alpha$, the minimum value of the loss function is shown in bold. The last column shows the average value for the 8 countries.

These results suggest that the optimal threshold is relatively low, certainly less than .5. When the policymaker puts equal weights on avoiding the two types of errors ($ \alpha$= .5), the optimal threshold ranges from .1 for the United Kingdom, Canada, Korea, and Taiwan, to .3 for Japan. It is .2 for the other four countries. The average optimal threshold for the eight countries also is .2. When the weight on Type I errors (missing an actual recession) rises to .75, the optimal threshold is .1 for six of the countries, .2 for the other two, and .1 for the average. When the weight on Type I errors falls to .25, the optimal threshold ranges from .2 to .5, with the average at .4. In the analysis that follows a threshold of .2 is used on the assumption that the weight placed on avoiding a missed recession should be at least as large as the weight on a false signal.

In-sample Evaluation

Table 5 provides an indication of how well the model does at correctly categorizing recessions and expansions. The percentage of total observations that are successfully categorized (column 1) is generally quite high, around 90 percent for the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, Korea, and Taiwan, and close to 80 percent for Japan and Mexico. The percentage of recessions correctly called (column 2) is usually lower, although there are a couple of exceptions. However, this percentage is over 80 percent for the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, and Mexico. It is lower for Korea and Taiwan, which have the fewest recessions.

The percentage of expansionary periods that are correctly categorized is likely to be high, given that the vast majority of both the actual and predicted observations will be expansions. A more telling statistic is "false alarms" (the percentage of predicted recessionary periods that occur during expansions), shown in column 3 vs. the corresponding percentage of predicted recessionary periods which do occur in actual recessions, column 4 (these two sum to 1). The value in column 4 is the in-sample probability of being in a recession when the predicted value is above the critical value. The probability of a false alarm is lowest for Germany and the United Kingdom (around 20 percent), and is around 30-40 percent for most of the other countries. It is highest for Taiwan at 59 percent. The probability of a recession when the indicator is less than .2 (column 5) is quite small for most countries.

Out-of-sample Evaluation

The models were first re-estimated through 1999, and these equations were then used to derive out-of-sample forecasts for the period 2000-2006. Strictly speaking, this is not really an out-of-sample forecast, since the same form of the equation was used as in the full sample period. Thus, it is possible that some variables (at some lags) that were included in the models evaluated in the previous section might not be significant for the shorter period and vice versa. However, the exercise was done using the same equations in order to be able to compare these results with those obtained in-sample. The re-estimated equations, also shown in appendix 2, are generally fairly similar to the original equations.

Table 6 shows the same set of results as shown in table 5 for the full period. The total percentage of observations that are correctly categorized is similar for most countries to the in-sample results. The percentage of recessionary periods correctly categorized is higher for some countries, notably for the U.S. and Japan, where it is 100 percent. The percentage of false alarms when the indicator is above the critical value is higher for some, but lower for others. (Taiwan shows no predictions above the critical value during the out-of-sample period.) The probability of missing a recessionary period is still low for most countries, but is quite high at 27.5 percent for Mexico. However, it might be noted that this actually refers to one long recessionary period, and the indicator does categorize a substantial part of it correctly.

Charts 9-16 give a more qualitative impression of how the indicators perform. One interesting result is that only one recession (Taiwan, 2003) is missed entirely. Another is that many false alarms are a result of inexact timing (i.e., they occur either just before a recession begins or just after it ends), rather than occurring in the middle of an expansionary period. However, Korea provides a dramatic exception, as the indicator suggests four recessions during the out-of-sample period, compared with just one official recession.

4  Panel Estimation

A panel regression with fixed effects was also estimated. Although the panel regression may be assuming a degree of conformity across countries that is not in fact the case, it has the advantage of having many more observations relative to the number of parameters being estimated. The results are shown in table 7. The equation is similar to the separate country equations: each of the independent variables was lagged between one and six months, depending on timeliness, in the initial estimation, and insignificant and/or incorrectly signed variables were progressively eliminated.3$ ^{ }$ All of the explanatory variables except oil prices were significant for at least one lag. The R$ ^{2 }$is .43.

Charts 17 through 24 compare the fitted values from the panel equation with both the actual values and the fitted values from the separate equations. A visual inspection suggests that the fitted indicators from the panel equation do tend to rise during recessionary periods, but often not as much as the fitted values from the separate equations. (However, this may not affect the ability of the indicator to signal a recession depending on the critical value.) As shown in table 8, the loss function is minimized at a critical value of .2 when equal weights are placed on avoiding the two types of errors, similar to the result from the single-equation estimation. Thus, .2 is used as the critical value in the evaluation.

Table 9 evaluates the success of the panel equation in predicting recessions in-sample for both the total and for each country. The percentage of observations correctly categorized is lower than for the individual equations (table 5) in all cases, although the size of the difference is generally fairly small. For the full regression, the percent of total observations correctly categorized is 85 percent, compared with a total of 89 percent for the individual equations taken together.

The out-of-sample results are shown in table 10. These forecasts are better than those from the individual country models for six of the eight countries, although the Korean model does not register the recession that occurred during that period. The overall percentage of periods correctly categorized is 86 percent for the panel regression, compared with a composite of 82 percent for the individual regressions.

5  Conclusion

This paper reports the results of an estimation of binary probit models for eight countries, both individually and as part of a panel, in an effort to forecast cycles in economic activity. The results vary widely, but several of the explanatory variables are significant in each of the country equations and all of them are significant in the panel regression. A loss function that places equal weights on errors in the two types of periods suggests that the optimal critical value signaling a recession is relatively low at .2 for both the individual country equations and the panel regressions. Using this critical value the individual models correctly identify nearly 90 percent of both the total and the recessionary periods on average in-sample, although these percentages differ substantially across countries. The percentage of total periods correctly identified is a little lower for the panel regression on average, although the percentage of recessionary periods correctly identified is about the same. The low critical value results in a relatively high percentage of false alarms, with 37 percent of fitted values above .2 occurring during expansionary periods for the individual equations on average, and 45 percent for the panel regression.

Nevertheless, the overall results suggest that models such as these can provide some general guidance to policymakers interested in gauging early signs of a weakening economy during an expansion or a strengthening economy during a contraction.

References

Bussiere, Matthieu and Marcel Fratzscher (2006), "Towards a New Early Warning System of Financial Crises", Journal of International Money and Finance, vol 25(6), 935-973.

Chin, Dan, John Geweke, and Preston Miller (2000), "Predicting Turning Points", Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report #267.

Edison, Hali (2000), "Do Indicators of Financial Crises Work? An Evaluation of an Early Warning System", Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Paper #675.

Estrella, Arturo and Frederic Mishkin (1998), "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 45-61.

Goodwin, Thomas (1993), "Business-Cycle Analysis With a Markov-Switching Model", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 11, #3, 331-339.

Kamin, Steven, John Schindler, and Shawna Samuel (2001), "The Contribution of Domestic and External Factors to Emerging Market Devaluation Crises: An Early Warning Systems Approach", International Finance Discussion Paper #711.

Kaminsky, Graciela, and Carmen Reinhart (1999), "The Twin Crises: Causes of Banking and Currency Crises", American Economic Review, June, 473-500.

Kaminsky, Graciela, Saul Lizondo, and Carmen Reinhart (1998), "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises", International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 45, #1.


Table 1:  Business Cycle Peaks and Troughs

Cycle
United States
Canada
Japan
United Kingdom
Germany
South Korea
Taiwan
Mexico
peak
1973:11
1974:12
1973:11
1974:9
1973:8
1979:3
1973:12
1982:3
trough
1975:3
1975:3
1975:2
1974:8
1975:7
1980:10
1975:1
1983:7
peak
1980:1
1980:1
1992:4
1979:6
1980:1
1997:8
2000:8
1985:10
trough
1980:7
1980:6
1994:2
1981:5
1982:10
1998:7
2001:9
1986:11
peak
1981:7
1981:6
1997:3
1990:5
1991:1
2002:12
2003:2
1992:10
trough
1982:11
1982:10
1999:7
1992:3
1994:4
2003:9
2003:5
1993:10
peak
1990:7
1990:3
2000:12
-
2001:1
-
-
1994:11
trough
1991:3
1992:4
2003:7
-
2003:8
-
-
1995:7
peak
2001:3
2000:12
-
-
-
-
-
2000:8
trough
2001:11
2001:9
-
-
-
-
-
2003:8
peak
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2004:12
trough
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2005:6

Table 2:  Expected Signs for the Explanatory Variables

Variable Expected signexplanation
Oil prices
Ambiguous
+ for oil importers,
- for oil exporters
Exchange rate*
  Real
  Nominal
Ambiguous
Increase might either reduce net exports or increase confidence
Stock price
-
Improvement in any of these indicators reduces the probability of a recession
Leading Indicator
-
Improvement in any of these indicators reduces the probability of a recession
Activity
-
Improvement in any of these indicators reduces the probability of a recession
Interest Rates (spread or change in short-term rate)
- for spread,
+ for change in short-term rates
Narrowing of the spread between long-term and short-term rates is associated with an increased probability of a recession

*  Assumes an increase in the exchange rate signals an appreciation.

Table 3:  Estimated Coefficients (lags in parentheses)
Coeff.
U.S.
Canada
Japan
U.K.
Germany
Mexico
Korea
Taiwan
Oil Price
.033(2)b
.025(4)c
.028(2)b
-
-
.051(2)c
-
-
.042(2)b
.035(3)a
Leading Indicator
-.127(6)a
-
-.061(1)
-.064(3)a
-.097(6)b
-.088(2)a
-
-.964(3)a
-.559(4)b
-.943(6)a
-.305(3)b
-.360(5)a
-.251(6)b
Yield Spread
-.332(3)a
-.313(6)a
-.616(6)a
-.705(1)a
-.626(1)a
-1.08(6)a
-
.339(2)a+
-
Stock Price
-.040(1)c
-.087(2)a
-.110(4)a
-.110(6)a
-.040(2)c
-.060(3)b
-.053(4)b
-052(5)b
-.038(6)c
-.044(1)a
-.064(2)a
-.063(3)a
-.043(6)a
-.079(2)b
-.034(2)b
-.038(5)b
-.040(6)a
-.023(1)a
-.020(2)b
-.023(3)b
-.022(5)b
-
-.035(1)a
Real Activity
-
-1.95(2)a
-1.30(3)a
-.865(4)b
-
-.281(3)c
-
-.475(3)a
-.587(4)a
-.419(5)b
-.152(6)c
-.124(8)b
-.186(9)a
-
Nominal Exchange Rate
-
-
-
-
-
-
-.120(4)b
-.173(6)a
-
Real Exchange Rate
-
-
-
.297(1)a
.277(2)b
.364(3)a
.296(4)b
.317(5)a
.385(6)b
-
-.064(2)c
-.103(3)b
-.123(4)a
-.063(5)c
-.083(6)b
-
.151(4)b
.139(5)b
McFadden R2
.66
.58
.46
.78
.62
.43
.46
.37

a  significant at the 1 % level. b  significant at the 5% level. c  significant at the 10 percent level.
+  change in short-term interest rate.

Table 4:  Value of Loss Function for given α and threshold - Panel A:  α = .75

Threshold
25
UK
CA
JA
GE
KO
TA
MX
Avg.
.1
6.93
1.80
7.74
13.59
7.07
13.80
16.90
13.92
8.63
.2
7.47
7.10
13.78
14.64
7.03
19.48
32.71
13.60
11.72
.3
9.89
11.28
24.85
17.35
10.13
28.21
44.59
19.16
17.20
.4
15.02
14.21
26.72
21.42
12.67
35.42
54.66
27.29
22.00
.5
17.37
16.97
30.32
26.87
19.28
48.64
54.45
27.54
26.47
.6
25.42
16.89
34.20
33.25
21.99
48.48
54.31
35.90
30.86
.7
35.08
19.81
35.27
43.31
25.80
50.24
54.31
40.38
35.74
.8
39.03
30.00
40.23
47.31
33.18
57.77
62.07
47.92
42.36
.9
55.62
40.25
46.55
59.84
40.14
59.62
64.66
54.40
50.79

Table 4:  Value of Loss Function for given α and threshold - Panel B:  α = .50

Threshold
25
UK
CA
JA
GE
KO
TA
MX
Avg.
.1
8.29
3.61
10.30
20.37
13.34
14.77
16.56
24.55
12.39
.2
7.52
6.20
12.05
15.65
9.30
15.88
24.04
18.42
11.47
.3
8.66
8.57
18.66
15.37
9.95
20.52
30.57
18.54
13.83
.4
11.52
10.41
18.96
16.71
11.05
24.69
36.90
22.71
16.33
.5
12.52
11.94
20.98
19.64
14.74
33.18
36.49
21.01
18.74
.6
17.51
11.79
23.56
23.32
16.20
32.86
36.21
25.65
21.36
.7
23.86
13.63
23.99
29.80
18.26
33.82
36.21
28.01
24.38
.8
26.21
20.00
27.01
32.12
22.71
38.62
41.38
32.11
28.45
.9
37.18
26.94
31.04
40.12
27.12
39.75
43.11
36.27
33.95

Table 4:  Value of Loss Function for given α and threshold - Panel C:  α = .75

Threshold
25
UK
CA
JA
GE
KO
TA
MX
Avg.
.1
9.66
5.41
12.87
27.14
19.62
15.75
16.22
35.17
16.16
.2
7.58
5.29
10.31
16.65
11.56
12.28
15.36
23.23
11.22
.3
7.44
5.85
12.48
13.40
9.76
12.83
16.54
17.91
10.46
.4
8.02
6.62
11.19
11.99
9.42
13.95
19.15
18.13
10.67
.5
7.67
6.91
11.63
12.42
10.21
17.71
18.52
14.47
11.00
.6
9.60
6.68
12.93
13.39
10.40
17.23
18.10
15.39
11.85
.7
12.63
7.44
12.71
16.28
10.73
17.39
18.10
15.64
13.02
.8
13.38
10.00
13.79
16.92
12.24
19.47
20.69
16.29
14.55
.9
18.73
13.62
15.52
20.41
14.09
19.87
21.55
18.13
17.12

Table 5:  Model Evaluation (in-sample)

Country
% of total observations correctly categorized
% of recessionary periods correctly categorized
% of false alarms when
p.v. > .2
prob of recession when
p.v. > .2
prob of recession when
p.v. < .2
U.S.
92.4
92.6
35.1
64.9
1.2
Canada
90.4
84.5
38.0
62.0
2.7
U.K.
95.1
92.0
23.3
76.7
1.3
Japan
83.3
86.4
40.2
59.8
4.8
Germany
89.0
95.2
24.5
75.5
2.4
Korea
89.7
76.9
47.4
52.6
3.1
Taiwan
90.7
58.6
58.5
41.5
3.5
Mexico
75.4
83.5
44.1
55.9
8.9
Total
88.6
86.7
37.0
63.0
3.1

p.v. = predicted value.

Table 6:  Model Evaluation (out-of-sample)

Country
% of total observations correctly categorized
% of recessionary periods correctly categorized
% of false alarms when
p.v. > .2
prob of recession when
p.v. > .2
prob of recession when
p.v. < .2
U.S.
84.5
100.0
61.9
38.1
0.0
Canada
94.0
55.6
16.7
83.3
5.1
U.K.
94.0
NA*
100.0
0.0
0.0
Japan
75.0
100.0
40.4
59.6
0.0
Germany
83.3
54.8
0.0
100.0
20.9
Korea
69.0
88.9
75.8
24.2
2.0
Taiwan
81.0
0.0
NA**
NA**
19.0
Mexico
73.8
66.7
22.2
77.8
29.2
Total
81.8
66.4
42.9
57.1
9.8

p.v. = predicted value.
*  there were no recessions in the U.K. during the out-of-sample period.
**  the predicted value never exceeded the critical value during the out-of-sample period for Taiwan.

Table 7:  Results of Panel Regression (Preferred Equation)
Sample: 1973:08 to 2005:12

Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
Z-Statistic
Prob.
C
0.952710
0.254163
3.748415
0.0002
Exchange rate(-1)
-4.118604
1.597582
-2.578024
0.0099
Exchange rate(-3)
-3.471046
1.705465
-2.035249
0.0418
Exchange rate(-6)
-5.806483
1.758986
-3.301039
0.0010
Stock price (-1)
-2.122200
0.484139
-4.383453
0.0000
Stock price (-2)
-2.404494
0.488647
-4.920722
0.0000
Stock price (-3)
-2.199412
0.482461
-4.558735
0.0000
Stock price (-4)
-1.227985
0.489297
-2.509691
0.0121
Stock price (-5)
-1.512747
0.497441
-3.041060
0.0024
Stock price (-6)
-1.439765
0.489552
-2.940987
0.0033
Leading Ind. (-4)
-0.017743
0.010174
-1.744001
0.0812
Leading Ind. (-6)
-0.021621
0.009745
-2.218574
0.0265
Yield (-3)
-0.247681
0.046183
-5.362998
0.0000
Yield -6)
-0.294310
0.047251
-6.228588
0.0000
Yield(-3)*DUMK
0.159851
0.071256
2.243311
0.0249
Yield(-6)*DUMK
0.339984
0.070709
4.808242
0.0000
Yield(-3)*DUMM
0.189228
0.051366
3.683948
0.0002
Yield(-6)*DUMM
0.372996
0.053624
6.955807
0.0000
Activity (-3)
-17.47433
2.314219
-7.550852
0.0000
Activity (-4)
-21.76745
2.640760
-8.242875
0.0000
Activity (-5)
-16.67411
2.502781
-6.662233
0.0000
Activity (-6)
-9.079876
2.252303
-4.031374
0.0001

McFadden R-squared
0.427685
S.D. dependent var
0.383109
Akaike info criterio
0.556924
Schwarz criterion
0.615988
Hannan-Quinn criter.
0.578191
LR statistic
1179.823
Prob(LR statistic)
0.000000
Mean dependent var
0.178632
S.E. of regression
0.282809
Sum squared resid
232.7446
Log likelihood
-789.3998
Restr. log likelihood
-1379.311
Avg. log likelihood
-0.268595
Obs with Dep=0
2414
Obs with Dep=1
525
Total obs
2939

Table 8:  Value of Loss Function for panel regression for given α and threshold

Threshold
α = .25
α = .5
α = .75
.1
24.09
18.73
13.36
.2
15.49
15.03
14.56
.3
12.72
16.29
19.86
.4
12.45
19.48
26.50
.5
13.98
24.56
35.13
.6
15.74
29.42
43.09
.7
17.52
33.72
49.91
.8
19.94
39.01
58.07
.9
20.99
41.80
62.62

Table 9:  Panel Equation Evaluation (In-Sample)

Country
% of total observations correctly categorized
% of recessionary periods correctly categorized
% of false alarms when
p.v*. > .2
prob of recession when
p.v. > .2
prob of recession when
p.v. < .2
United States
91.5
90.7
36.4
63.6
1.6
Canada
85.8
77.6
48.3
51.7
4.3
U.K.
89.6
82.6
44.1
55.9
2.7
Japan
81.2
86.7
45.0
55.0
4.6
Germany
83.2
97.6
33.7
66.3
1.5
Korea
86.0
64.1
57.6
42.4
4.9
Taiwan
82.7
55.2
70.4
29.6
3.9
Mexico
72.1
95.6
48.2
51.8
2.9
Full Regression
84.8
86.5
45.2
54.8
3.4

*  p.v. = predicted value.

Table 10:  Panel Equation Evaluation (Out-of-Sample)

Country
% of total observations correctly categorized
% of recessionary periods correctly categorized
% of false alarms when
p.v.* > .2
prob of recession when
p.v. > .2
prob of recession when
p.v. < .2
United States
94.0
87.5
36.4
63.6
1.4
Canada
95.2
66.7
14.3
85.7
3.9
U.K.
98.8
NA#
100.0
0.0
0.0
Japan
64.3
100.0
49.2
50.8
0.0
Germany
89.3
87.1
15.6
84.4
7.7
Korea
89.3
0.0
NA+
NA+
10.7
Taiwan
79.8
18.8
25.0
75.0
16.3
Mexico
76.2
71.4
21.1
78.9
26.1
Full Regression
86.3
71.2
32.5
67.5
8.1

*  p.v. = predicted value.
#  there were no UK recessions in the out-of-sample period.
+  the Korean indicator did not rise above the critical value in the out-of-sample period.

Chart 1:  In-sample Fitted Values - United States

Data for Chart 1 follows Chart 8.

Chart 2:  In-sample Fitted Values - Canada

Data for Chart 2 follows Chart 8.

Chart 3:  In-sample Fitted Values - Japan

Data for Chart 3 follows Chart 8.

Chart 4:  In-sample Fitted Values - Germany

Data for Chart 4 follows Chart 8.

Chart 5:  In-sample Fitted Values - United Kingdom

Data for Chart 5 follows Chart 8.

Chart 6:  In-sample Fitted Values - Mexico

Data for Chart 6 follows Chart 8.

Chart 7:  In-sample Fitted Values - Korea

Data for Chart 7 follows Chart 8.

Chart 8:  In-sample Fitted Values - Taiwan

Data for Chart 8 below.

Data for Charts 1 through 8

Country
U.S.
U.S.
Canada
Canada
Japan
Japan
Germany
Germany
U.K.
U.K.
Mexico
Mexico
Korea
Korea
Taiwan
Taiwan
Date
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
OBS
USPT
USPTF
CAPT
CAPTF
JAPT
JAPTF
GEPT
GEPTF
UKPT
UKPTF
MXPT
MXPTF
KOPT
KOPTF
TAPT
TAPTF
1972M01
0
0.00442
0
0.01677
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1972M02
0
0.00102
0
0.00033
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1972M03
0
0.00080
0
0.00726
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1972M04
0
0.00002
0
0.00075
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1972M05
0
0.00018
0
0.00004
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1972M06
0
0.00000
0
0.00197
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1972M07
0
0.00000
0
0.02179
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1972M08
0
0.00000
0
0.00975
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1972M09
0
0.00002
0
0.00024
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1972M10
0
0.00001
0
0.00011
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1972M11
0
0.00023
0
0.00156
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1972M12
0
0.00005
0
0.01094
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1973M01
0
0.00014
0
0.00002
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1973M02
0
0.00004
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1973M03
0
0.00002
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1973M04
0
0.00023
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1973M05
0
0.00002
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1973M06
0
0.00273
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.42166
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1973M07
0
0.00093
0
0.00011
-
-
0
0.21935
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1973M08
0
0.02643
0
0.00006
-
-
0
0.22693
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
1973M09
0
0.00823
0
0.08401
-
-
1
0.63552
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00048
1973M10
0
0.21118
0
0.01371
-
-
1
0.99949
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
0
0.01247
1973M11
0
0.02914
0
0.05321
-
-
1
1.00000
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
0
0.00625
1973M12
1
0.34527
0
0.00001
-
-
1
1.00000
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
0
0.00089
1974M01
1
0.51552
0
0.00005
-
-
1
1.00000
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.01803
1974M02
1
0.64022
0
0.00006
-
-
1
1.00000
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.07891
1974M03
1
0.97858
0
0.00024
-
-
1
1.00000
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.39536
1974M04
1
0.36114
0
0.00284
-
-
1
1.00000
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.90825
1974M05
1
0.63730
0
0.02647
-
-
1
1.00000
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.37643
1974M06
1
0.78845
0
0.00816
-
-
1
0.99999
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.99934
1974M07
1
0.90131
0
0.33755
-
-
1
0.99983
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.79479
1974M08
1
0.82575
0
0.28540
-
-
1
0.99567
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.44206
1974M09
1
0.83673
0
0.09161
-
-
1
0.93467
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.92934
1974M10
1
0.98482
0
0.03458
1
0.50406
1
0.70460
1
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.80559
1974M11
1
0.99958
0
0.37298
1
0.49746
1
0.45836
1
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.94352
1974M12
1
0.93702
0
0.14190
1
0.30235
1
0.46868
1
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.70389
1975M01
1
0.99712
1
0.17624
1
0.39202
1
0.37692
1
0.00000
-
-
-
-
1
0.95609
1975M02
1
0.88220
1
0.11641
1
0.58042
1
0.66590
1
0.00000
-
-
-
-
0
0.12997
1975M03
1
0.53018
1
0.66518
0
0.91034
1
0.51548
1
0.00000
-
-
-
-
0
0.00534
1975M04
0
0.38533
0
0.14887
0
0.84852
1
0.62847
1
0.99998
-
-
-
-
0
0.12681
1975M05
0
0.04438
0
0.30227
0
0.58549
1
0.42702
1
0.98481
-
-
-
-
0
0.00111
1975M06
0
0.41766
0
0.00166
0
0.94381
1
0.41724
1
0.97986
-
-
-
-
0
0.00012
1975M07
0
0.01970
0
0.00119
0
0.81443
1
0.18609
1
0.99923
-
-
-
-
0
0.00002
1975M08
0
0.00469
0
0.00099
0
0.64579
0
0.06461
1
0.21701
-
-
-
-
0
0.00034
1975M09
0
0.08517
0
0.04245
0
0.45767
0
0.00563
0
0.03793
-
-
-
-
0
0.00203
1975M10
0
0.12979
0
0.11508
0
0.73707
0
0.00537
0
0.00082
-
-
-
-
0
0.00161
1975M11
0
0.00636
0
0.02907
0
0.25365
0
0.00930
0
0.00774
-
-
-
-
0
0.00895
1975M12
0
0.02990
0
0.04780
0
0.07129
0
0.00013
0
0.00002
-
-
-
-
0
0.05068
1976M01
0
0.01568
0
0.00444
0
0.09577
0
0.00011
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00000
0
0.00559
1976M02
0
0.00448
0
0.00229
0
0.40512
0
0.00003
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00000
0
0.00129
1976M03
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.31963
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00000
0
0.02599
1976M04
0
0.00002
0
0.00000
0
0.09657
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00000
0
0.00079
1976M05
0
0.00000
0
0.00001
0
0.28871
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00000
0
0.05863
1976M06
0
0.00002
0
0.00153
0
0.17528
0
0.00003
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00000
0
0.08532
1976M07
0
0.00000
0
0.01357
0
0.03342
0
0.00001
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00000
0
0.02967
1976M08
0
0.00000
0
0.04165
0
0.04332
0
0.00001
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00000
0
0.24261
1976M09
0
0.00000
0
0.22294
0
0.01888
0
0.00009
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00000
0
0.06221
1976M10
0
0.00001
0
0.11198
0
0.00985
0
0.00010
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00000
0
0.11138
1976M11
0
0.00005
0
0.13639
0
0.00408
0
0.00002
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.10621
0
0.27514
1976M12
0
0.00009
0
0.39359
0
0.00387
0
0.00036
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.09578
0
0.06265
1977M01
0
0.00004
0
0.19807
0
0.01207
0
0.00012
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.36928
0
0.04378
1977M02
0
0.00003
0
0.07426
0
0.00627
0
0.00057
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.01491
0
0.00549
1977M03
0
0.00068
0
0.10289
0
0.00813
0
0.00459
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.09381
0
0.01447
1977M04
0
0.00017
0
0.18959
0
0.04723
0
0.01699
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.07921
0
0.14216
1977M05
0
0.00011
0
0.18239
0
0.02437
0
0.00967
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.03873
0
0.04277
1977M06
0
0.00001
0
0.05699
0
0.02408
0
0.02746
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.04512
0
0.01110
1977M07
0
0.00001
0
0.07617
0
0.08205
0
0.07346
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.11097
0
0.10873
1977M08
0
0.00030
0
0.07127
0
0.17194
0
0.05169
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.04783
0
0.01200
1977M09
0
0.00000
0
0.08261
0
0.11242
0
0.03240
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.01209
0
0.00229
1977M10
0
0.00024
0
0.05302
0
0.02000
0
0.11769
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00455
0
0.02255
1977M11
0
0.00001
0
0.03104
0
0.03993
0
0.18847
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.02841
0
0.01356
1977M12
0
0.00100
0
0.02049
0
0.15683
0
0.10729
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00876
0
0.03343
1978M01
0
0.00004
0
0.02882
0
0.31440
0
0.09391
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.01965
0
0.00981
1978M02
0
0.00449
0
0.00725
0
0.15566
0
0.14887
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.03199
0
0.00389
1978M03
0
0.00436
0
0.02530
0
0.15512
0
0.13906
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.05267
0
0.00019
1978M04
0
0.00057
0
0.00163
0
0.06144
0
0.12979
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.01085
0
0.00758
1978M05
0
0.00076
0
0.00048
0
0.08637
0
0.20936
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.05317
0
0.13482
1978M06
0
0.00000
0
0.00072
0
0.09397
0
0.19703
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.01964
0
0.00296
1978M07
0
0.00009
0
0.00071
0
0.04246
0
0.06345
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.00122
0
0.06562
1978M08
0
0.00003
0
0.00008
0
0.02654
0
0.04931
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.32203
0
0.00130
1978M09
0
0.00003
0
0.00005
0
0.00550
0
0.06276
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.14203
0
0.02036
1978M10
0
0.00000
0
0.00017
0
0.00429
0
0.05993
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.16121
0
0.00012
1978M11
0
0.00005
0
0.00144
0
0.00422
0
0.02302
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.21242
0
0.01832
1978M12
0
0.00060
0
0.00025
0
0.00147
0
0.01164
0
0.00002
-
-
0
0.26939
0
0.06483
1979M01
0
0.00639
0
0.00446
0
0.00355
0
0.00480
0
0.00007
-
-
0
0.22688
0
0.10988
1979M02
0
0.00058
0
0.00390
0
0.00576
0
0.00259
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.07232
0
0.03694
1979M03
0
0.02951
0
0.01171
0
0.00382
0
0.00428
0
0.00000
-
-
0
0.08698
0
0.08742
1979M04
0
0.02836
0
0.01193
0
0.00078
0
0.01803
0
0.05984
-
-
1
0.03152
0
0.18265
1979M05
0
0.02241
0
0.00824
0
0.00078
0
0.00582
0
0.00000
-
-
1
0.18641
0
0.01822
1979M06
0
0.00654
0
0.00723
0
0.00015
0
0.00564
0
0.00000
-
-
1
0.41425
0
0.17470
1979M07
0
0.00874
0
0.01601
0
0.00002
0
0.00306
1
0.38753
-
-
1
0.47088
0
0.18782
1979M08
0
0.00901
0
0.04048
0
0.00132
0
0.00317
1
0.77434
-
-
1
0.97457
0
0.61475
1979M09
0
0.07610
0
0.00828
0
0.00028
0
0.00217
1
0.67171
-
-
1
0.77824
0
0.09862
1979M10
0
0.02099
0
0.02132
0
0.00035
0
0.04720
1
0.94607
-
-
1
0.94986
0
0.46500
1979M11
0
0.47104
0
0.06501
0
0.00033
0
0.04943
1
0.32569
-
-
1
0.75609
0
0.08058
1979M12
0
0.36419
0
0.10252
0
0.00492
0
0.06954
1
0.85594
-
-
1
0.30653
0
0.36243
1980M01
0
0.58708
0
0.15953
0
0.00669
0
0.12383
1
0.99761
-
-
1
0.34199
0
0.25172
1980M02
1
0.54029
1
0.04846
0
0.00361
1
0.40721
1
0.85605
-
-
1
0.29056
0
0.25827
1980M03
1
0.58203
1
0.04660
0
0.00497
1
0.74130
1
0.95200
-
-
1
0.49515
0
0.30528
1980M04
1
0.92873
1
0.23187
0
0.11309
1
0.88937
1
0.99937
-
-
1
0.43112
0
0.03336
1980M05
1
0.92957
1
0.41342
0
0.10269
1
0.99193
1
1.00000
-
-
1
0.78760
0
0.14908
1980M06
1
0.88124
1
0.52410
0
0.42916
1
0.98544
1
1.00000
-
-
1
0.44334
0
0.07469
1980M07
1
0.98964
0
0.80697
0
0.35456
1
0.88945
1
1.00000
-
-
1
0.83463
0
0.00391
1980M08
0
0.13645
0
0.33948
0
0.42002
1
0.92186
1
1.00000
-
-
1
0.19575
0
0.00798
1980M09
0
0.74251
0
0.48415
0
0.18998
1
0.83795
1
1.00000
-
-
1
0.00756
0
0.00983
1980M10
0
0.70880
0
0.19261
0
0.07528
1
0.97197
1
1.00000
0
0.41768
1
0.15678
0
0.01391
1980M11
0
0.07612
0
0.00049
0
0.02706
1
0.99555
1
1.00000
0
0.08725
0
0.01431
0
0.03270
1980M12
0
0.18756
0
0.00026
0
0.01340
1
0.99945
1
1.00000
0
0.03207
0
0.04141
0
0.22331
1981M01
0
0.14518
0
0.00005
0
0.03667
1
0.99897
1
1.00000
0
0.00070
0
0.01418
0
0.09628
1981M02
0
0.04133
0
0.00080
0
0.08658
1
0.99616
1
1.00000
0
0.00060
0
0.15785
0
0.17924
1981M03
0
0.50650
0
0.00054
0
0.09974
1
0.99400
1
1.00000
0
0.00078
0
0.00411
0
0.03088
1981M04
0
0.34602
0
0.00136
0
0.04801
1
0.98324
1
0.99846
0
0.00683
0
0.05859
0
0.02123
1981M05
0
0.21650
0
0.04460
0
0.04141
1
0.98605
1
0.99842
0
0.01033
0
0.01006
0
0.21511
1981M06
0
0.47822
0
0.75587
0
0.01980
1
0.99674
0
0.74030
0
0.01904
0
0.00042
0
0.50055
1981M07
0
0.79903
1
0.78939
0
0.01255
1
0.97884
0
0.06538
0
0.02999
0
0.03011
0
0.08178
1981M08
1
0.71003
1
0.53502
0
0.02227
1
0.97967
0
0.00036
0
0.06578
0
0.00034
0
0.23284
1981M09
1
0.82277
1
0.88842
0
0.00597
1
1.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.17124
0
0.00002
0
0.20363
1981M10
1
0.59524
1
0.93971
0
0.01663
1
1.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.20654
0
0.00693
0
0.38254
1981M11
1
0.96228
1
0.99922
0
0.04096
1
0.99993
0
0.00005
0
0.20306
0
0.00458
0
0.25895
1981M12
1
0.41133
1
0.99998
0
0.04004
1
0.99945
0
0.00000
0
0.14974
0
0.00289
0
0.21954
1982M01
1
0.97256
1
0.99987
0
0.01300
1
0.99965
0
0.00000
0
0.27039
0
0.00346
0
0.06143
1982M02
1
0.37514
1
0.99997
0
0.01118
1
0.99979
0
0.09849
0
0.56935
0
0.02906
0
0.13944
1982M03
1
0.67155
1
0.99932
0
0.03864
1
0.99885
0
0.05471
0
0.75881
0
0.04650
0
0.00385
1982M04
1
0.23568
1
0.98932
0
0.08394
1
0.99655
0
0.65393
1
0.74953
0
0.01024
0
0.37779
1982M05
1
0.65619
1
0.91461
0
0.14088
1
0.99604
0
0.03967
1
0.99917
0
0.03303
0
0.00593
1982M06
1
0.57773
1
0.99035
0
0.10118
1
0.99645
0
0.00642
1
1.00000
0
0.08699
0
0.19493
1982M07
1
0.87886
1
0.96618
0
0.03246
1
0.97907
0
0.00006
1
1.00000
0
0.00724
0
0.36697
1982M08
1
0.84513
1
0.98373
0
0.09902
1
0.97785
0
0.00048
1
0.99907
0
0.01604
0
0.04175
1982M09
1
0.80575
1
0.99487
0
0.08956
1
0.98301
0
0.01816
1
0.99010
0
0.00031
0
0.00546
1982M10
1
0.63901
1
0.97432
0
0.06384
1
0.99042
0
0.00207
1
0.99117
0
0.00494
0
0.00166
1982M11
1
0.10226
0
0.85359
0
0.04391
0
0.98737
0
0.00389
1
1.00000
0
0.00267
0
0.00681
1982M12
0
0.14273
0
0.63109
0
0.02092
0
0.98426
0
0.00042
1
0.99995
0
0.00016
0
0.01699
1983M01
0
0.00207
0
0.05673
0
0.03348
0
0.95830
0
0.00002
1
0.96297
0
0.00021
0
0.01162
1983M02
0
0.00228
0
0.00763
0
0.09096
0
0.84763
0
0.00008
1
0.81576
0
0.00002
0
0.00612
1983M03
0
0.00003
0
0.00360
0
0.29073
0
0.75410
0
0.00000
1
0.80371
0
0.00007
0
0.00101
1983M04
0
0.00024
0
0.00032
0
0.18127
0
0.42829
0
0.00000
1
0.50966
0
0.00004
0
0.00119
1983M05
0
0.00025
0
0.00008
0
0.14443
0
0.17296
0
0.00000
1
0.99215
0
0.00248
0
0.00035
1983M06
0
0.00027
0
0.00000
0
0.22174
0
0.14017
0
0.00000
1
0.96580
0
0.03426
0
0.01900
1983M07
0
0.00006
0
0.00000
0
0.17398
0
0.07693
0
0.00000
1
0.73275
0
0.00625
0
0.00289
1983M08
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.10251
0
0.01310
0
0.00000
0
0.38348
0
0.00082
0
0.00014
1983M09
0
0.00003
0
0.00000
0
0.02558
0
0.01974
0
0.00040
0
0.28394
0
0.00150
0
0.00020
1983M10
0
0.00026
0
0.00000
0
0.02678
0
0.04610
0
0.00003
0
0.07480
0
0.00614
0
0.00059
1983M11
0
0.00001
0
0.00003
0
0.01966
0
0.00804
0
0.00000
0
0.11648
0
0.00071
0
0.00204
1983M12
0
0.00121
0
0.00219
0
0.01485
0
0.00351
0
0.00000
0
0.10027
0
0.00493
0
0.00295
1984M01
0
0.00001
0
0.00592
0
0.01473
0
0.01052
0
0.00000
0
0.07396
0
0.00461
0
0.01361
1984M02
0
0.00022
0
0.00289
0
0.00754
0
0.00381
0
0.00000
0
0.00210
0
0.03618
0
0.00966
1984M03
0
0.00002
0
0.02208
0
0.00608
0
0.00104
0
0.00000
0
0.00027
0
0.03247
0
0.01036
1984M04
0
0.00069
0
0.00456
0
0.00703
0
0.01227
0
0.00000
0
0.00461
0
0.06148
0
0.00501
1984M05
0
0.00000
0
0.01057
0
0.00461
0
0.01808
0
0.00000
0
0.04970
0
0.03482
0
0.00046
1984M06
0
0.00001
0
0.03009
0
0.00223
0
0.02771
0
0.00000
0
0.03394
0
0.03070
0
0.00089
1984M07
0
0.00003
0
0.03419
0
0.01077
0
0.05851
0
0.00000
0
0.01461
0
0.01816
0
0.00247
1984M08
0
0.00207
0
0.00357
0
0.02038
0
0.05713
0
0.00000
0
0.08220
0
0.03031
0
0.00776
1984M09
0
0.00002
0
0.00052
0
0.00070
0
0.04417
0
0.00000
0
0.02269
0
0.00728
0
0.03682
1984M10
0
0.00001
0
0.00165
0
0.00299
0
0.02984
0
0.00000
0
0.00032
0
0.00889
0
0.05358
1984M11
0
0.00013
0
0.00271
0
0.00344
0
0.02709
0
0.00000
0
0.00642
0
0.01335
0
0.05998
1984M12
0
0.00003
0
0.00606
0
0.00149
0
0.04981
0
0.00000
0
0.00159
0
0.02009
0
0.12311
1985M01
0
0.00026
0
0.02835
0
0.00566
0
0.04018
0
0.00000
0
0.23865
0
0.00557
0
0.05776
1985M02
0
0.00004
0
0.00766
0
0.00348
0
0.01429
0
0.00000
0
0.19738
0
0.00030
0
0.03560
1985M03
0
0.00004
0
0.01006
0
0.00324
0
0.01218
0
0.00000
0
0.01550
0
0.00419
0
0.00860
1985M04
0
0.00016
0
0.00655
0
0.00153
0
0.07885
0
0.00000
0
0.00099
0
0.02980
0
0.01358
1985M05
0
0.00010
0
0.00272
0
0.00883
0
0.10422
0
0.00093
0
0.00009
0
0.00719
0
0.13751
1985M06
0
0.00000
0
0.00041
0
0.01366
0
0.08447
0
0.00001
0
0.01710
0
0.00642
0
0.09537
1985M07
0
0.00001
0
0.00006
0
0.01416
0
0.03730
0
0.02652
0
0.13601
0
0.00262
0
0.09875
1985M08
0
0.00001
0
0.01038
0
0.02999
0
0.05820
0
0.81474
0
0.55199
0
0.04288
0
0.00841
1985M09
0
0.00038
0
0.00063
0
0.04785
0
0.13233
0
0.11396
0
0.15381
0
0.06367
0
0.00860
1985M10
0
0.00254
0
0.00024
0
0.08655
0
0.02545
0
0.42829
0
0.36941
0
0.04666
0
0.00746
1985M11
0
0.00083
0
0.00370
0
0.04012
0
0.01263
0
0.00107
1
0.53155
0
0.10243
0
0.00299
1985M12
0
0.00259
0
0.02513
0
0.03127
0
0.01049
0
0.00000
1
0.68667
0
0.04671
0
0.00180
1986M01
0
0.00055
0
0.00077
0
0.14548
0
0.02281
0
0.00052
1
0.76976
0
0.03400
0
0.00273
1986M02
0
0.00125
0
0.00056
0
0.08302
0
0.00109
0
0.00000
1
0.84348
0
0.00650
0
0.00154
1986M03
0
0.00011
0
0.00015
0
0.10997
0
0.00188
0
0.00000
1
0.62186
0
0.00463
0
0.00000
1986M04
0
0.00000
0
0.00067
0
0.03626
0
0.00529
0
0.00000
1
0.89684
0
0.00009
0
0.00000
1986M05
0
0.00000
0
0.00462
0
0.02037
0
0.00860
0
0.00000
1
0.92363
0
0.00104
0
0.00000
1986M06
0
0.00000
0
0.00280
0
0.01750
0
0.00797
0
0.00000
1
0.87345
0
0.01985
0
0.00001
1986M07
0
0.00024
0
0.08591
0
0.09063
0
0.05695
0
0.00000
1
0.95808
0
0.00468
0
0.00002
1986M08
0
0.00000
0
0.14231
0
0.06265
0
0.01019
0
0.00000
1
0.95075
0
0.00026
0
0.00314
1986M09
0
0.00164
0
0.26151
0
0.03922
0
0.03536
0
0.00000
1
0.99381
0
0.00034
0
0.00031
1986M10
0
0.08000
0
0.15432
0
0.24676
0
0.08573
0
0.00000
1
0.97935
0
0.01465
0
0.00009
1986M11
0
0.04247
0
0.07242
0
0.12487
0
0.18004
0
0.00000
1
0.97820
0
0.00234
0
0.00839
1986M12
0
0.02550
0
0.06389
0
0.12381
0
0.10436
0
0.00000
0
0.79013
0
0.00432
0
0.00040
1987M01
0
0.06937
0
0.05964
0
0.10110
0
0.03529
0
0.00000
0
0.54190
0
0.00794
0
0.01293
1987M02
0
0.08322
0
0.06747
0
0.02320
0
0.07059
0
0.00000
0
0.19450
0
0.00723
0
0.00325
1987M03
0
0.01048
0
0.02014
0
0.07613
0
0.25365
0
0.00000
0
0.11159
0
0.02635
0
0.00043
1987M04
0
0.00172
0
0.00392
0
0.10451
0
0.06593
0
0.00017
0
0.02717
0
0.00107
0
0.00242
1987M05
0
0.00097
0
0.00058
0
0.10139
0
0.04643
0
0.00011
0
0.00198
0
0.00815
0
0.00001
1987M06
0
0.01253
0
0.00014
0
0.15635
0
0.23333
0
0.00584
0
0.00007
0
0.00087
0
0.00015
1987M07
0
0.00022
0
0.00006
0
0.12950
0
0.19768
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.01136
0
0.00176
1987M08
0
0.00033
0
0.00029
0
0.09441
0
0.01534
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.01611
0
0.00462
1987M09
0
0.00064
0
0.00087
0
0.03851
0
0.00785
0
0.00000
0
0.00001
0
0.02331
0
0.00197
1987M10
0
0.00018
0
0.00530
0
0.00301
0
0.02601
0
0.00000
0
0.00007
0
0.01014
0
0.00905
1987M11
0
0.00316
0
0.00191
0
0.00652
0
0.02202
0
0.00000
0
0.11093
0
0.00043
0
0.04626
1987M12
0
0.01089
0
0.02999
0
0.12014
0
0.01859
0
0.00324
0
0.22190
0
0.04952
0
0.23394
1988M01
0
0.01884
0
0.18130
0
0.10513
0
0.00889
0
0.00000
0
0.48893
0
0.00022
0
0.01260
1988M02
0
0.00024
0
0.05118
0
0.00410
0
0.01282
0
0.00000
0
0.23802
0
0.00227
0
0.00430
1988M03
0
0.00141
0
0.14806
0
0.00132
0
0.09170
0
0.00002
0
0.27539
0
0.00245
0
0.00036
1988M04
0
0.00055
0
0.00233
0
0.00058
0
0.10259
0
0.00000
0
0.43716
0
0.00399
0
0.04483
1988M05
0
0.00046
0
0.00127
0
0.00021
0
0.01952
0
0.00000
0
0.28911
0
0.00673
0
0.07148
1988M06
0
0.00001
0
0.00268
0
0.00049
0
0.00318
0
0.00000
0
0.19303
0
0.01058
0
0.01564
1988M07
0
0.00000
0
0.02937
0
0.00004
0
0.00006
0
0.00000
0
0.02895
0
0.00717
0
0.02691
1988M08
0
0.00001
0
0.03092
0
0.00003
0
0.00002
0
0.00000
0
0.10398
0
0.00281
0
0.00171
1988M09
0
0.00005
0
0.03827
0
0.00002
0
0.00082
0
0.00000
0
0.06460
0
0.00308
0
0.00016
1988M10
0
0.00060
0
0.09692
0
0.00001
0
0.00028
0
0.00000
0
0.19394
0
0.00295
0
0.00277
1988M11
0
0.00011
0
0.06856
0
0.00006
0
0.00001
0
0.00000
0
0.05727
0
0.00094
0
0.07822
1988M12
0
0.00015
0
0.02708
0
0.00001
0
0.00010
0
0.00000
0
0.02274
0
0.00015
0
0.00759
1989M01
0
0.00043
0
0.03560
0
0.00001
0
0.01009
0
0.00210
0
0.01515
0
0.00526
0
0.02640
1989M02
0
0.00942
0
0.02022
0
0.00000
0
0.00832
0
0.00001
0
0.00085
0
0.04642
0
0.01042
1989M03
0
0.00859
0
0.00223
0
0.00000
0
0.00609
0
0.00000
0
0.00683
0
0.04406
0
0.00662
1989M04
0
0.00542
0
0.02585
0
0.00000
0
0.02457
0
0.00198
0
0.00103
0
0.07822
0
0.02672
1989M05
0
0.03184
0
0.04410
0
0.00000
0
0.01371
0
0.00005
0
0.02659
0
0.02350
0
0.02402
1989M06
0
0.00783
0
0.37686
0
0.00001
0
0.02156
0
0.00000
0
0.06844
0
0.00891
0
0.07362
1989M07
0
0.00995
0
0.32123
0
0.00001
0
0.06494
0
0.00000
0
0.06961
0
0.00015
0
0.08321
1989M08
0
0.00849
0
0.47170
0
0.00003
0
0.08512
0
0.00000
0
0.08533
0
0.00050
0
0.21493
1989M09
0
0.05780
0
0.42246
0
0.00003
0
0.08093
0
0.00000
0
0.01143
0
0.00115
0
0.26576
1989M10
0
0.01966
0
0.23783
0
0.00000
0
0.08557
0
0.00002
0
0.04014
0
0.00001
0
0.17891
1989M11
0
0.08908
0
0.45847
0
0.00005
0
0.18307
0
0.00001
0
0.09583
0
0.01091
0
0.02607
1989M12
0
0.15682
0
0.65574
0
0.00003
0
0.23324
0
0.02979
0
0.62727
0
0.00502
0
0.15012
1990M01
0
0.49243
0
0.69420
0
0.00001
0
0.15099
0
0.01414
0
0.70590
0
0.00591
0
0.11326
1990M02
0
0.35410
0
0.72589
0
0.00001
0
0.15429
0
0.00996
0
0.48818
0
0.00460
0
0.00801
1990M03
0
0.65986
0
0.70491
0
0.00006
0
0.48125
0
0.75341
0
0.27458
0
0.00170
0
0.01941
1990M04
0
0.38564
1
0.75998
0
0.01568
0
0.71936
0
0.25495
0
0.00452
0
0.00212
0
0.02042
1990M05
0
0.28992
1
0.86882
0
0.00947
0
0.22892
0
0.45776
0
0.00179
0
0.00132
0
0.03125
1990M06
0
0.24903
1
0.87662
0
0.00091
0
0.48899
1
0.70316
0
0.00005
0
0.01572
0
0.08956
1990M07
0
0.03830
1
0.97200
0
0.00016
0
0.43336
1
0.63723
0
0.00646
0
0.00157
0
0.17663
1990M08
1
0.02808
1
0.91080
0
0.00032
0
0.11934
1
0.94866
0
0.01442
0
0.00069
0
0.05534
1990M09
1
0.07337
1
0.92237
0
0.08713
0
0.11439
1
0.86005
0
0.12661
0
0.00392
0
0.44040
1990M10
1
0.61789
1
0.88259
0
0.10588
0
0.34015
1
0.99995
0
0.06242
0
0.27418
0
0.35919
1990M11
1
0.47715
1
0.97416
0
0.00913
0
0.25461
1
0.99793
0
0.17591
0
0.02980
0
0.17925
1990M12
1
0.84455
1
0.99863
0
0.00399
0
0.04039
1
0.99873
0
0.13329
0
0.00476
0
0.02162
1991M01
1
0.35752
1
0.99868
0
0.00022
0
0.24214
1
1.00000
0
0.30065
0
0.00381
0
0.05968
1991M02
1
0.89425
1
0.99518
0
0.10423
1
0.59036
1
0.99993
0
0.47296
0
0.00058
0
0.00705
1991M03
1
0.07403
1
0.96122
0
0.02644
1
0.15058
1
0.99476
0
0.37282
0
0.00036
0
0.00000
1991M04
0
0.00036
1
0.90937
0
0.00019
1
0.03528
1
0.87061
0
0.03918
0
0.00441
0
0.00214
1991M05
0
0.00193
1
0.81014
0
0.01055
1
0.25806
1
0.94815
0
0.00360
0
0.02793
0
0.00029
1991M06
0
0.00000
1
0.38227
0
0.01716
1
0.38643
1
0.92657
0
0.00495
0
0.09383
0
0.00605
1991M07
0
0.01657
1
0.08608
0
0.07488
1
0.24889
1
0.45047
0
0.08172
0
0.03137
0
0.00827
1991M08
0
0.00001
1
0.15216
0
0.00693
1
0.52123
1
0.86582
0
0.03986
0
0.10001
0
0.03549
1991M09
0
0.01379
1
0.27833
0
0.05201
1
0.51976
1
0.18655
0
0.17223
0
0.01114
0
0.01190
1991M10
0
0.00134
1
0.22052
0
0.01271
1
0.47005
1
0.21749
0
0.05881
0
0.00077
0
0.00644
1991M11
0
0.02227
1
0.24509
0
0.01240
1
0.66891
1
0.29545
0
0.20938
0
0.03479
0
0.05107
1991M12
0
0.00019
1
0.13898
0
0.01104
1
0.69192
1
0.19303
0
0.20072
0
0.00706
0
0.02244
1992M01
0
0.00055
1
0.25807
0
0.01601
1
0.57330
1
0.44960
0
0.01035
0
0.01950
0
0.02870
1992M02
0
0.00000
1
0.25178
0
0.28789
1
0.70952
1
0.16872
0
0.00763
0
0.04571
0
0.00482
1992M03
0
0.00000
1
0.23750
0
0.09163
1
0.72832
1
0.12261
0
0.03355
0
0.01810
0
0.01760
1992M04
0
0.00002
1
0.18099
0
0.34256
1
0.85288
0
0.00670
0
0.24081
0
0.20996
0
0.01333
1992M05
0
0.00000
0
0.38821
1
0.61363
1
0.90213
0
0.02127
0
0.32220
0
0.15215
0
0.03676
1992M06
0
0.00104
0
0.33567
1
0.41600
1
0.87655
0
0.02760
0
0.00092
0
0.05415
0
0.04703
1992M07
0
0.00001
0
0.19786
1
0.50745
1
0.90022
0
0.01520
0
0.06521
0
0.08258
0
0.02494
1992M08
0
0.00150
0
0.19191
1
0.28515
1
0.97291
0
0.16287
0
0.17791
0
0.05452
0
0.06154
1992M09
0
0.00002
0
0.12676
1
0.36742
1
0.98996
0
0.07743
0
0.48178
0
0.01006
0
0.09781
1992M10
0
0.00160
0
0.09626
1
0.12884
1
0.99051
0
0.00560
0
0.14305
0
0.09400
0
0.06863
1992M11
0
0.00000
0
0.04931
1
0.07276
1
0.99603
0
0.00000
1
0.30804
0
0.17158
0
0.00719
1992M12
0
0.00003
0
0.01599
1
0.58588
1
0.99889
0
0.00000
1
0.10236
0
0.03799
0
0.01889
1993M01
0
0.00000
0
0.02516
1
0.39989
1
0.99964
0
0.00000
1
0.26496
0
0.02797
0
0.09826
1993M02
0
0.00000
0
0.01607
1
0.27231
1
0.99959
0
0.00000
1
0.53729
0
0.08774
0
0.05246
1993M03
0
0.00000
0
0.01297
1
0.62214
1
0.99893
0
0.00000
1
0.52069
0
0.00117
0
0.00125
1993M04
0
0.00001
0
0.00942
1
0.45853
1
0.99195
0
0.00000
1
0.53006
0
0.01208
0
0.00416
1993M05
0
0.00000
0
0.14913
1
0.12807
1
0.99475
0
0.00000
1
0.14041
0
0.00610
0
0.04623
1993M06
0
0.00000
0
0.06414
1
0.17376
1
0.99833
0
0.00031
1
0.03828
0
0.03685
0
0.01644
1993M07
0
0.00000
0
0.01320
1
0.29585
1
0.99021
0
0.00000
1
0.19919
0
0.03487
0
0.00931
1993M08
0
0.00006
0
0.00161
1
0.47473
1
0.98135
0
0.00000
1
0.36195
0
0.07056
0
0.00283
1993M09
0
0.00000
0
0.00175
1
0.15801
1
0.98880
0
0.00000
1
0.78789
0
0.02216
0
0.00407
1993M10
0
0.00016
0
0.00178
1
0.05323
1
0.97714
0
0.00000
1
0.79645
0
0.01765
0
0.01406
1993M11
0
0.00000
0
0.00074
1
0.37936
1
0.92731
0
0.00000
0
0.44722
0
0.00933
0
0.00458
1993M12
0
0.00008
0
0.00102
1
0.87628
1
0.84672
0
0.00000
0
0.09543
0
0.00353
0
0.00051
1994M01
0
0.00004
0
0.00019
1
0.85991
1
0.82177
0
0.00000
0
0.01342
0
0.00471
0
0.00021
1994M02
0
0.00001
0
0.01255
1
0.65035
1
0.62555
0
0.00000
0
0.09624
0
0.00075
0
0.00684
1994M03
0
0.00006
0
0.00918
0
0.26836
1
0.86334
0
0.00000
0
0.00738
0
0.00126
0
0.00853
1994M04
0
0.00002
0
0.00116
0
0.32919
1
0.85159
0
0.00000
0
0.02546
0
0.00082
0
0.02514
1994M05
0
0.00008
0
0.00044
0
0.87533
0
0.63628
0
0.00000
0
0.28800
0
0.00006
0
0.00766
1994M06
0
0.00026
0
0.00061
0
0.38717
0
0.58116
0
0.00000
0
0.21054
0
0.00469
0
0.01286
1994M07
0
0.00003
0
0.00008
0
0.05521
0
0.80210
0
0.00000
0
0.09940
0
0.00201
0
0.01348
1994M08
0
0.00237
0
0.00111
0
0.14892
0
0.57585
0
0.00000
0
0.16052
0
0.00589
0
0.00663
1994M09
0
0.00005
0
0.00183
0
0.14485
0
0.17535
0
0.00000
0
0.17802
0
0.00399
0
0.00892
1994M10
0
0.00008
0
0.00175
0
0.08126
0
0.13063
0
0.00000
0
0.25936
0
0.03622
0
0.00163
1994M11
0
0.00001
0
0.00048
0
0.03710
0
0.13624
0
0.00000
0
0.47315
0
0.00046
0
0.00176
1994M12
0
0.00000
0
0.00226
0
0.09002
0
0.00536
0
0.00000
1
0.52232
0
0.00312
0
0.01301
1995M01
0
0.00000
0
0.00001
0
0.04150
0
0.00403
0
0.00000
1
0.59354
0
0.01679
0
0.00587
1995M02
0
0.00000
0
0.00049
0
0.05538
0
0.00873
0
0.00000
1
0.89394
0
0.02286
0
0.01908
1995M03
0
0.00000
0
0.00014
0
0.13950
0
0.00571
0
0.00000
1
1.00000
0
0.00534
0
0.00116
1995M04
0
0.00001
0
0.00828
0
0.32842
0
0.00131
0
0.00000
1
1.00000
0
0.00055
0
0.01039
1995M05
0
0.00001
0
0.00109
0
0.23675
0
0.01056
0
0.00000
1
1.00000
0
0.00004
0
0.09080
1995M06
0
0.00019
0
0.05879
0
0.12077
0
0.01090
0
0.00000
1
1.00000
0
0.01835
0
0.03177
1995M07
0
0.00000
0
0.04568
0
0.36792
0
0.00344
0
0.00000
1
1.00000
0
0.06649
0
0.02400
1995M08
0
0.00002
0
0.03398
0
0.37368
0
0.01477
0
0.00000
0
0.76274
0
0.01133
0
0.08240
1995M09
0
0.00005
0
0.08678
0
0.03652
0
0.01848
0
0.00000
0
0.76804
0
0.03187
0
0.07720
1995M10
0
0.00080
0
0.06875
0
0.00278
0
0.00422
0
0.00000
0
0.25650
0
0.09431
0
0.04131
1995M11
0
0.00088
0
0.04023
0
0.13106
0
0.01587
0
0.00000
0
0.07163
0
0.02835
0
0.05818
1995M12
0
0.01863
0
0.01903
0
0.18862
0
0.01387
0
0.00000
0
0.06042
0
0.00915
0
0.02544
1996M01
0
0.00049
0
0.08382
0
0.01302
0
0.00837
0
0.00000
0
0.15612
0
0.06109
0
0.01664
1996M02
0
0.14031
0
0.01168
0
0.00412
0
0.03176
0
0.00000
0
0.15229
0
0.03370
0
0.12601
1996M03
0
0.02098
0
0.00593
0
0.02649
0
0.01432
0
0.00000
0
0.00095
0
0.01647
0
0.02582
1996M04
0
0.09178
0
0.00212
0
0.03074
0
0.01622
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
0
0.06649
0
0.00880
1996M05
0
0.19495
0
0.01992
0
0.01026
0
0.02357
0
0.00000
0
0.00121
0
0.09778
0
0.00442
1996M06
0
0.01676
0
0.00566
0
0.00320
0
0.01769
0
0.00000
0
0.00472
0
0.05934
0
0.09721
1996M07
0
0.04336
0
0.00441
0
0.00728
0
0.01164
0
0.00000
0
0.01639
0
0.14311
0
0.02202
1996M08
0
0.01679
0
0.03266
0
0.03970
0
0.00788
0
0.00000
0
0.00811
0
0.12324
0
0.03605
1996M09
0
0.03619
0
0.00406
0
0.02788
0
0.00205
0
0.00000
0
0.00521
0
0.34399
0
0.01345
1996M10
0
0.00431
0
0.00141
0
0.04266
0
0.00123
0
0.00000
0
0.02207
0
0.60835
0
0.00934
1996M11
0
0.00553
0
0.00761
0
0.02801
0
0.00044
0
0.00000
0
0.01533
0
0.12210
0
0.00580
1996M12
0
0.00036
0
0.00562
0
0.01665
0
0.00091
0
0.00041
0
0.11897
0
0.65100
0
0.01673
1997M01
0
0.02711
0
0.00023
0
0.20733
0
0.00065
0
0.00000
0
0.06793
0
0.22293
0
0.01567
1997M02
0
0.00111
0
0.00001
0
0.16057
0
0.00080
0
0.00009
0
0.01930
0
0.11150
0
0.00112
1997M03
0
0.00039
0
0.00000
0
0.12952
0
0.00027
0
0.00110
0
0.00049
0
0.03109
0
0.00126
1997M04
0
0.00135
0
0.00002
1
0.19732
0
0.00043
0
0.00012
0
0.00156
0
0.06908
0
0.00103
1997M05
0
0.00196
0
0.00017
1
0.06423
0
0.00111
0
0.00082
0
0.00969
0
0.11462
0
0.00024
1997M06
0
0.00028
0
0.00119
1
0.07506
0
0.00190
0
0.00000
0
0.01095
0
0.01030
0
0.00697
1997M07
0
0.00010
0
0.00002
1
0.02101
0
0.00039
0
0.00000
0
0.01707
0
0.02662
0
0.00063
1997M08
0
0.00014
0
0.00000
1
0.02360
0
0.00078
0
0.00005
0
0.00758
0
0.00334
0
0.00563
1997M09
0
0.00005
0
0.00000
1
0.15484
0
0.00022
0
0.00000
0
0.01167
1
0.08095
0
0.00475
1997M10
0
0.00028
0
0.00000
1
0.22222
0
0.00492
0
0.00000
0
0.00209
1
0.09245
0
0.04537
1997M11
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
1
0.47253
0
0.00015
0
0.00000
0
0.03972
1
0.22466
0
0.14291
1997M12
0
0.00027
0
0.00019
1
0.36692
0
0.00024
0
0.04051
0
0.02575
1
0.25863
0
0.01057
1998M01
0
0.00014
0
0.00322
1
0.67914
0
0.00119
0
0.00106
0
0.03633
1
0.25614
0
0.03395
1998M02
0
0.00096
0
0.00425
1
0.70608
0
0.00332
0
0.00042
0
0.03417
1
0.96028
0
0.01103
1998M03
0
0.00170
0
0.01185
1
0.63543
0
0.00717
0
0.00257
0
0.15752
1
1.00000
0
0.00005
1998M04
0
0.00035
0
0.00452
1
0.66980
0
0.01462
0
0.00581
0
0.14473
1
1.00000
0
0.01175
1998M05
0
0.00228
0
0.00132
1
0.84650
0
0.00209
0
0.02301
0
0.10339
1
1.00000
0
0.12299
1998M06
0
0.00027
0
0.00029
1
0.97484
0
0.01014
0
0.00007
0
0.04350
1
1.00000
0
0.07084
1998M07
0
0.00264
0
0.01462
1
0.87984
0
0.00641
0
0.01204
0
0.10528
1
0.91157
0
0.16636
1998M08
0
0.00011
0
0.02066
1
0.82905
0
0.00786
0
0.00410
0
0.37296
0
0.04021
0
0.05823
1998M09
0
0.00379
0
0.05370
1
0.97095
0
0.02699
0
0.02547
0
0.86083
0
0.00171
0
0.05294
1998M10
0
0.11424
0
0.28226
1
0.99829
0
0.14434
0
0.18958
0
0.74525
0
0.00003
0
0.04419
1998M11
0
0.11184
0
0.34462
1
0.99888
0
0.05772
0
0.08989
0
0.66182
0
0.00867
0
0.02240
1998M12
0
0.23831
0
0.25827
1
0.95358
0
0.07305
0
0.13318
0
0.48929
0
0.00213
0
0.05641
1999M01
0
0.00167
0
0.10049
1
0.87350
0
0.33117
0
0.23809
0
0.69085
0
0.00005
0
0.01219
1999M02
0
0.02242
0
0.18305
1
0.96170
0
0.64824
0
0.73194
0
0.35782
0
0.00006
0
0.00431
1999M03
0
0.00318
0
0.00647
1
0.96106
0
0.44018
0
0.09927
0
0.19000
0
0.00573
0
0.00379
1999M04
0
0.00790
0
0.07368
1
0.72665
0
0.38451
0
0.36125
0
0.05246
0
0.00000
0
0.00330
1999M05
0
0.00001
0
0.10557
1
0.47302
0
0.33870
0
0.56668
0
0.00248
0
0.00000
0
0.00015
1999M06
0
0.00551
0
0.05309
1
0.71842
0
0.28531
0
0.48748
0
0.00089
0
0.00000
0
0.01679
1999M07
0
0.00982
0
0.04258
1
0.51446
0
0.54500
0
0.29978
0
0.00188
0
0.00001
0
0.00257
1999M08
0
0.00393
0
0.02341
0
0.59687
0
0.32726
0
0.05876
0
0.01094
0
0.00001
0
0.00495
1999M09
0
0.03093
0
0.00463
0
0.27480
0
0.17483
0
0.10618
0
0.02829
0
0.00074
0
0.00336
1999M10
0
0.02034
0
0.03571
0
0.53479
0
0.08549
0
0.01346
0
0.06831
0
0.00012
0
0.09460
1999M11
0
0.00088
0
0.02841
0
0.62838
0
0.08671
0
0.00001
0
0.06343
0
0.01057
0
0.02646
1999M12
0
0.00155
0
0.01221
0
0.24882
0
0.02305
0
0.00011
0
0.21495
0
0.00049
0
0.05575
2000M01
0
0.00000
0
0.00745
0
0.31776
0
0.00789
0
0.01206
0
0.14525
0
0.06714
0
0.01260
2000M02
0
0.00022
0
0.00022
0
0.36671
0
0.00116
0
0.00103
0
0.13361
0
0.10163
0
0.00965
2000M03
0
0.00000
0
0.00014
0
0.29803
0
0.00373
0
0.00178
0
0.00823
0
0.03376
0
0.01345
2000M04
0
0.00000
0
0.00004
0
0.26139
0
0.00075
0
0.00170
0
0.00401
0
0.13961
0
0.00449
2000M05
0
0.00000
0
0.00036
0
0.48561
0
0.00288
0
0.00014
0
0.02889
0
0.05381
0
0.05540
2000M06
0
0.00030
0
0.00125
0
0.77733
0
0.00483
0
0.00001
0
0.20134
0
0.04562
0
0.01624
2000M07
0
0.00033
0
0.00621
0
0.73529
0
0.00207
0
0.00018
0
0.05145
0
0.37895
0
0.00634
2000M08
0
0.03077
0
0.00822
0
0.53694
0
0.00473
0
0.00001
0
0.12471
0
0.43868
0
0.05268
2000M09
0
0.01847
0
0.02679
0
0.22981
0
0.03640
0
0.00000
1
0.07856
0
0.20952
1
0.24267
2000M10
0
0.42090
0
0.01590
0
0.59962
0
0.09692
0
0.00091
1
0.16847
0
0.26728
1
0.12568
2000M11
0
0.50445
0
0.01038
0
0.46638
0
0.28015
0
0.01976
1
0.07552
0
0.18789
1
0.19404
2000M12
0
0.52221
0
0.05052
0
0.39957
0
0.18323
0
0.00101
1
0.52069
0
0.19540
1
0.32390
2001M01
0
0.42050
1
0.19163
1
0.66666
0
0.29088
0
0.04260
1
0.37206
0
0.46833
1
0.31683
2001M02
0
0.95551
1
0.30169
1
0.28805
1
0.42887
0
0.00264
1
0.58677
0
0.50042
1
0.15132
2001M03
0
0.85743
1
0.42818
1
0.67566
1
0.30753
0
0.00000
1
0.88457
0
0.87847
1
0.12750
2001M04
1
0.99974
1
0.72419
1
0.71647
1
0.71409
0
0.00174
1
0.94617
0
0.72746
1
0.16948
2001M05
1
0.97630
1
0.75955
1
0.52557
1
0.78591
0
0.00000
1
0.87225
0
0.76410
1
0.34591
2001M06
1
0.93775
1
0.48706
1
0.61914
1
0.46735
0
0.00001
1
0.38334
0
0.54812
1
0.34481
2001M07
1
0.87438
1
0.27153
1
0.64051
1
0.75602
0
0.00007
1
0.65456
0
0.42592
1
0.23866
2001M08
1
0.79935
1
0.52099
1
0.92735
1
0.89336
0
0.00030
1
0.42840
0
0.02838
1
0.42522
2001M09
1
0.65844
1
0.23928
1
0.92282
1
0.77301
0
0.00546
1
0.22826
0
0.01750
1
0.12866
2001M10
1
0.81362
0
0.15952
1
0.95867
1
0.72685
0
0.02735
1
0.38030
0
0.08995
0
0.10915
2001M11
1
0.26527
0
0.20086
1
0.97213
1
0.89737
0
0.02598
1
0.59373
0
0.02019
0
0.02077
2001M12
0
0.02146
0
0.27819
1
0.88068
1
0.64176
0
0.00083
1
0.58124
0
0.00415
0
0.00300
2002M01
0
0.15330
0
0.08765
1
0.83096
1
0.73800
0
0.03763
1
0.58134
0
0.00589
0
0.00041
2002M02
0
0.00130
0
0.08430
1
0.94866
1
0.93717
0
0.16839
1
0.29537
0
0.00642
0
0.00558
2002M03
0
0.04821
0
0.00107
1
0.94488
1
0.72128
0
0.18495
1
0.35890
0
0.00046
0
0.00583
2002M04
0
0.00251
0
0.00035
1
0.71707
1
0.20977
0
0.08650
1
0.26736
0
0.00007
0
0.00036
2002M05
0
0.00011
0
0.00000
1
0.54167
1
0.10898
0
0.04862
1
0.25999
0
0.00003
0
0.00114
2002M06
0
0.06001
0
0.00003
1
0.66106
1
0.24262
0
0.19276
1
0.10850
0
0.00001
0
0.00981
2002M07
0
0.01298
0
0.00002
1
0.84122
1
0.21853
0
0.00048
1
0.30944
0
0.00002
0
0.00351
2002M08
0
0.30037
0
0.00009
1
0.85255
1
0.18004
0
0.00567
1
0.47154
0
0.00131
0
0.00166
2002M09
0
0.02883
0
0.00038
1
0.90100
1
0.27482
0
0.09845
1
0.67423
0
0.03598
0
0.00251
2002M10
0
0.07092
0
0.00037
1
0.80779
1
0.26068
0
0.00000
1
0.77862
0
0.11815
0
0.06025
2002M11
0
0.17240
0
0.00221
1
0.84032
1
0.71349
0
0.00010
1
0.68198
0
0.07242
0
0.04443
2002M12
0
0.00181
0
0.01944
1
0.91250
1
0.41275
0
0.00004
1
0.79975
0
0.22809
0
0.05058
2003M01
0
0.01123
0
0.00528
1
0.90754
1
0.46566
0
0.00055
1
0.64657
1
0.09578
0
0.01760
2003M02
0
0.00985
0
0.00093
1
0.84989
1
0.89775
0
0.00001
1
0.68102
1
0.36082
0
0.00211
2003M03
0
0.00042
0
0.00164
1
0.93448
1
0.75762
0
0.00013
1
0.72663
1
0.22243
1
0.04620
2003M04
0
0.03657
0
0.00069
1
0.93836
1
0.17670
0
0.00000
1
0.75651
1
0.35881
1
0.00848
2003M05
0
0.00000
0
0.00272
1
0.81736
1
0.44465
0
0.00000
1
0.64775
1
0.12867
1
0.00430
2003M06
0
0.00051
0
0.02547
1
0.88905
1
0.30665
0
0.00000
1
0.59632
1
0.47985
0
0.00025
2003M07
0
0.00000
0
0.04817
1
0.57945
1
0.41510
0
0.00002
1
0.27728
1
0.63349
0
0.00009
2003M08
0
0.00031
0
0.00349
0
0.21385
1
0.33532
0
0.00000
1
0.35192
1
0.72532
0
0.00450
2003M09
0
0.00001
0
0.00282
0
0.22572
0
0.03813
0
0.00000
0
0.29038
1
0.49082
0
0.00609
2003M10
0
0.00000
0
0.00270
0
0.19334
0
0.01952
0
0.00144
0
0.43191
0
0.01647
0
0.00094
2003M11
0
0.00000
0
0.00679
0
0.12325
0
0.12181
0
0.02105
0
0.52729
0
0.00846
0
0.00062
2003M12
0
0.00016
0
0.00343
0
0.25549
0
0.01031
0
0.00892
0
0.69219
0
0.00178
0
0.00066
2004M01
0
0.00000
0
0.00047
0
0.21118
0
0.01327
0
0.00545
0
0.33246
0
0.00252
0
0.00124
2004M02
0
0.00001
0
0.00032
0
0.18864
0
0.02655
0
0.02043
0
0.24612
0
0.02299
0
0.00018
2004M03
0
0.00000
0
0.00050
0
0.17144
0
0.00947
0
0.26110
0
0.10966
0
0.07751
0
0.00013
2004M04
0
0.00005
0
0.00161
0
0.09710
0
0.00592
0
0.01910
0
0.06770
0
0.08289
0
0.00182
2004M05
0
0.00000
0
0.00564
0
0.10238
0
0.01321
0
0.04004
0
0.23194
0
0.16495
0
0.00311
2004M06
0
0.00001
0
0.00229
0
0.07246
0
0.00589
0
0.00028
0
0.03891
0
0.13114
0
0.01539
2004M07
0
0.00001
0
0.00369
0
0.08724
0
0.02609
0
0.00003
0
0.03068
0
0.13767
0
0.01091
2004M08
0
0.00000
0
0.00496
0
0.07764
0
0.04039
0
0.00000
0
0.22628
0
0.02785
0
0.07932
2004M09
0
0.00255
0
0.02294
0
0.04958
0
0.06013
0
0.00000
0
0.56781
0
0.21662
0
0.00737
2004M10
0
0.00000
0
0.01817
0
0.19113
0
0.02919
0
0.00001
0
0.44548
0
0.10611
0
0.01203
2004M11
0
0.00005
0
0.00169
0
0.18365
0
0.01337
0
0.00000
0
0.17895
0
0.31091
0
0.02406
2004M12
0
0.00000
0
0.00090
0
0.06531
0
0.01482
0
0.00000
0
0.10968
0
0.35526
0
0.01679
2005M01
0
0.00000
0
0.00120
0
0.08697
0
0.03336
0
0.00002
1
0.20511
0
0.09218
0
0.03620
2005M02
0
0.00006
0
0.00172
0
0.07518
0
0.02250
0
0.00000
1
0.23119
0
0.13507
0
0.01246
2005M03
0
0.00000
0
0.00302
0
0.07975
0
0.02177
0
0.00060
1
0.14247
0
0.21355
0
0.00462
2005M04
0
0.00003
0
0.00380
0
0.10661
0
0.02834
0
0.00000
1
0.22720
0
0.15774
0
0.10017
2005M05
0
0.00091
0
0.01258
0
0.14977
0
0.05372
0
0.00002
1
0.29738
0
0.08846
0
0.06888
2005M06
0
0.00002
0
0.00793
0
0.15379
0
0.14519
0
0.13152
1
0.33961
0
0.00317
0
0.13433
2005M07
0
0.00246
0
0.01280
0
0.15517
0
0.10051
0
0.00001
0
0.41841
0
0.00461
0
0.02769
2005M08
0
0.00685
0
0.00567
0
0.03566
0
0.10931
0
0.00000
0
0.12912
0
0.03382
0
0.01019
2005M09
0
0.00138
0
0.00246
0
0.02838
0
0.07531
0
0.00002
0
0.26771
0
0.01235
0
0.07144
2005M10
0
0.02492
0
0.00094
0
0.02373
0
0.12378
0
0.00001
0
0.17761
0
0.02822
0
0.02802
2005M11
0
0.00377
0
0.00310
0
0.00682
0
0.05139
0
0.00064
0
0.29141
0
0.01636
0
0.05108
2005M12
0
0.01167
0
0.00414
0
0.00462
0
0.07747
0
0.00235
0
0.09937
0
0.02241
0
0.00247

Chart 9:  Out-of-Sample Forecasts - United States

Data for Chart 9 follows Chart 16.

Chart 10:  Out-of-Sample Forecasts - Canada

Data for Chart 10 follows Chart 16.

Chart 11:  Out-of-Sample Forecasts - Japan

Data for Chart 11 follows Chart 16.

Chart 12:  Out-of-Sample Forecasts - Germany

Data for Chart 12 follows Chart 16.

Chart 13:  Out-of-Sample Forecasts - United Kingdom

Data for Chart 13 follows Chart 16.

Chart 14:  Out-of-Sample Forecasts - Mexico

Data for Chart 14 follows Chart 16.

Chart 15:  Out-of-Sample Forecasts - Korea

Data for Chart 15 follows Chart 16.

Chart 16:  Out-of-Sample Forecasts - Taiwan

Data for Chart 16 below.

Data for Charts 9 through 16

Country
U.S.
U.S.
Canada
Canada
Japan
Japan
Germany
Germany
U.K.
U.K.
Mexico
Mexico
Korea
Korea
Taiwan
Taiwan
Date
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
Actual
Predicted
OBS
USPT
USPTFO
CAPT
CAPTFO
JAPT
JAPTFO
GEPT
GEPTFO
UKPT
UKPTFO
MXPT
MXPTFO
KOPTFO
KOPTFO
TAPTFO
TAPT
2000M01
0
0.00000
0
0.00760
0
0.32813
0
0.00400
0
0.01757
0
0.07360
0
0.06059
0
0.00017
2000M02
0
0.00002
0
0.00040
0
0.36746
0
0.00101
0
0.00270
0
0.04596
0
0.12903
0
0.00004
2000M03
0
0.00000
0
0.00036
0
0.30802
0
0.00138
0
0.00499
0
0.00108
0
0.02528
0
0.00012
2000M04
0
0.00000
0
0.00029
0
0.27801
0
0.00131
0
0.00328
0
0.00056
0
0.16590
0
0.00001
2000M05
0
0.00000
0
0.00116
0
0.50269
0
0.00497
0
0.00032
0
0.01043
0
0.07086
0
0.00478
2000M06
0
0.00000
0
0.00456
0
0.77577
0
0.00311
0
0.00004
0
0.05548
0
0.07532
0
0.00247
2000M07
0
0.00000
0
0.00916
0
0.72527
0
0.00108
0
0.00038
0
0.01093
0
0.61110
0
0.00001
2000M08
0
0.15320
0
0.01389
0
0.54681
0
0.00214
0
0.00004
0
0.05997
0
0.66942
0
0.00222
2000M09
0
0.03493
0
0.03495
0
0.26255
0
0.01738
0
0.00000
1
0.01589
0
0.35507
1
0.11757
2000M10
0
0.68304
0
0.02925
0
0.57860
0
0.04152
0
0.00266
1
0.04052
0
0.41875
1
0.00552
2000M11
0
0.93287
0
0.01283
0
0.47992
0
0.12414
0
0.03296
1
0.02879
0
0.27602
1
0.01240
2000M12
0
0.77014
0
0.06242
0
0.43855
0
0.15290
0
0.00265
1
0.29256
0
0.25509
1
0.06497
2001M01
0
0.69137
1
0.09929
1
0.65546
0
0.16706
0
0.05421
1
0.14830
0
0.70596
1
0.13471
2001M02
0
0.99998
1
0.17479
1
0.33497
1
0.28648
0
0.00563
1
0.38626
0
0.79266
1
0.01924
2001M03
0
0.99720
1
0.23238
1
0.66737
1
0.26352
0
0.00001
1
0.84128
0
0.99342
1
0.00541
2001M04
1
1.00000
1
0.57069
1
0.70033
1
0.46587
0
0.00454
1
0.81593
0
0.94653
1
0.00297
2001M05
1
0.99989
1
0.60308
1
0.51684
1
0.59507
0
0.00002
1
0.64750
0
0.92991
1
0.13136
2001M06
1
0.99674
1
0.29634
1
0.59462
1
0.47748
0
0.00005
1
0.18447
0
0.67125
1
0.09820
2001M07
1
0.99970
1
0.17850
1
0.63336
1
0.57803
0
0.00037
1
0.46103
0
0.57188
1
0.04155
2001M08
1
0.99089
1
0.37886
1
0.90437
1
0.71832
0
0.00102
1
0.18563
0
0.03773
1
0.24722
2001M09
1
0.92709
1
0.18670
1
0.90752
1
0.66084
0
0.01354
1
0.06925
0
0.01079
1
0.00952
2001M10
1
0.99871
0
0.12418
1
0.94609
1
0.52321
0
0.05272
1
0.15326
0
0.09164
0
0.00057
2001M11
1
0.23979
0
0.13936
1
0.95236
1
0.63999
0
0.05883
1
0.39750
0
0.02229
0
0.00003
2001M12
0
0.02842
0
0.16130
1
0.83477
1
0.46804
0
0.00279
1
0.32010
0
0.00369
0
0.00000
2002M01
0
0.79498
0
0.05567
1
0.77734
1
0.50794
0
0.08931
1
0.40373
0
0.00313
0
0.00000
2002M02
0
0.00090
0
0.07799
1
0.91665
1
0.69021
0
0.26284
1
0.12660
0
0.00250
0
0.00023
2002M03
0
0.24226
0
0.00108
1
0.90827
1
0.46927
0
0.29189
1
0.18921
0
0.00003
0
0.00004
2002M04
0
0.00004
0
0.00069
1
0.67224
1
0.15993
0
0.13622
1
0.13459
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
2002M05
0
0.00000
0
0.00001
1
0.50806
1
0.09754
0
0.08473
1
0.13195
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
2002M06
0
0.26030
0
0.00004
1
0.61500
1
0.09572
0
0.27703
1
0.02597
0
0.00000
0
0.00017
2002M07
0
0.03424
0
0.00002
1
0.80417
1
0.07969
0
0.00138
1
0.14269
0
0.00000
0
0.00000
2002M08
0
0.96647
0
0.00005
1
0.83725
1
0.07107
0
0.01795
1
0.29023
0
0.00025
0
0.00000
2002M09
0
0.13340
0
0.00020
1
0.88272
1
0.06000
0
0.23648
1
0.48859
0
0.03583
0
0.00000
2002M10
0
0.64191
0
0.00008
1
0.78955
1
0.08085
0
0.00001
1
0.55861
0
0.20519
0
0.00187
2002M11
0
0.77382
0
0.00061
1
0.82326
1
0.17715
0
0.00055
1
0.46611
0
0.11827
0
0.00165
2002M12
0
0.00167
0
0.00839
1
0.88175
1
0.14714
0
0.00015
1
0.63842
0
0.36415
0
0.00070
2003M01
0
0.20139
0
0.00208
1
0.87798
1
0.21315
0
0.00204
1
0.48522
1
0.15364
0
0.00004
2003M02
0
0.01487
0
0.00085
1
0.82837
1
0.38854
0
0.00009
1
0.41365
1
0.54056
0
0.00000
2003M03
0
0.00006
0
0.00156
1
0.91240
1
0.46454
0
0.00055
1
0.57944
1
0.31097
1
0.00091
2003M04
0
0.04015
0
0.00087
1
0.91522
1
0.10503
0
0.00000
1
0.62387
1
0.49735
1
0.00001
2003M05
0
0.00000
0
0.00287
1
0.80715
1
0.15527
0
0.00000
1
0.44414
1
0.20243
1
0.00000
2003M06
0
0.00165
0
0.02488
1
0.85908
1
0.16638
0
0.00001
1
0.38766
1
0.75212
0
0.00000
2003M07
0
0.00000
0
0.04831
1
0.56052
1
0.16993
0
0.00017
1
0.12606
1
0.92848
0
0.00000
2003M08
0
0.00007
0
0.00430
0
0.22807
1
0.16293
0
0.00000
1
0.21787
1
0.90876
0
0.00004
2003M09
0
0.00000
0
0.00424
0
0.23168
0
0.04567
0
0.00000
0
0.16067
1
0.68603
0
0.00001
2003M10
0
0.00000
0
0.00575
0
0.20723
0
0.01449
0
0.00456
0
0.30219
0
0.00723
0
0.00000
2003M11
0
0.00000
0
0.01094
0
0.15274
0
0.06053
0
0.05382
0
0.35103
0
0.00384
0
0.00000
2003M12
0
0.00001
0
0.00475
0
0.28963
0
0.01567
0
0.02487
0
0.58754
0
0.00043
0
0.00000
2004M01
0
0.00000
0
0.00069
0
0.24263
0
0.00691
0
0.01414
0
0.15183
0
0.00099
0
0.00000
2004M02
0
0.00000
0
0.00062
0
0.22036
0
0.00801
0
0.04828
0
0.12692
0
0.01907
0
0.00000
2004M03
0
0.00000
0
0.00081
0
0.19843
0
0.00545
0
0.38351
0
0.03924
0
0.09978
0
0.00000
2004M04
0
0.00002
0
0.00415
0
0.12351
0
0.00295
0
0.03789
0
0.02985
0
0.09725
0
0.00000
2004M05
0
0.00000
0
0.00931
0
0.12384
0
0.00433
0
0.06292
0
0.11090
0
0.21455
0
0.00000
2004M06
0
0.00001
0
0.00279
0
0.10477
0
0.00283
0
0.00083
0
0.00789
0
0.16093
0
0.00019
2004M07
0
0.00000
0
0.00341
0
0.11405
0
0.00747
0
0.00018
0
0.00685
0
0.19387
0
0.00012
2004M08
0
0.00000
0
0.00394
0
0.10545
0
0.01152
0
0.00003
0
0.14053
0
0.02772
0
0.01688
2004M09
0
0.02391
0
0.01974
0
0.07914
0
0.01878
0
0.00000
0
0.44476
0
0.34440
0
0.00007
2004M10
0
0.00000
0
0.01691
0
0.23283
0
0.00798
0
0.00005
0
0.21260
0
0.15190
0
0.00002
2004M11
0
0.00022
0
0.00185
0
0.21862
0
0.00497
0
0.00000
0
0.07093
0
0.46981
0
0.00021
2004M12
0
0.00000
0
0.00111
0
0.09735
0
0.00387
0
0.00000
0
0.04349
0
0.55884
0
0.00008
2005M01
0
0.00000
0
0.00175
0
0.11252
0
0.00917
0
0.00012
1
0.11905
0
0.13754
0
0.00078
2005M02
0
0.00015
0
0.00265
0
0.10175
0
0.00923
0
0.00000
1
0.11438
0
0.21087
0
0.00007
2005M03
0
0.00000
0
0.00488
0
0.10687
0
0.00897
0
0.00169
1
0.05381
0
0.31594
0
0.00000
2005M04
0
0.00000
0
0.00580
0
0.13734
0
0.01514
0
0.00000
1
0.08589
0
0.22018
0
0.00935
2005M05
0
0.00025
0
0.01667
0
0.19272
0
0.02735
0
0.00008
1
0.13987
0
0.13508
0
0.00804
2005M06
0
0.00000
0
0.00963
0
0.20010
0
0.06110
0
0.20414
1
0.15657
0
0.00143
0
0.04135
2005M07
0
0.00469
0
0.01233
0
0.19045
0
0.06084
0
0.00002
0
0.24858
0
0.00158
0
0.00185
2005M08
0
0.00554
0
0.00632
0
0.05806
0
0.05736
0
0.00001
0
0.03340
0
0.03027
0
0.00011
2005M09
0
0.00086
0
0.00299
0
0.04595
0
0.03441
0
0.00008
0
0.11910
0
0.00918
0
0.00742
2005M10
0
0.01622
0
0.00134
0
0.03681
0
0.06701
0
0.00005
0
0.09999
0
0.02907
0
0.00258
2005M11
0
0.00074
0
0.00680
0
0.01422
0
0.04217
0
0.00203
0
0.16519
0
0.01177
0
0.00266
2005M12
0
0.00394
0
0.00535
0
0.01037
0
0.05685
0
0.00548
0
0.02782
0
0.01570
0
0.00000
2006M01
0
0.00005
0
0.00875
0
0.00935
0
0.05162
0
0.00035
0
0.00840
0
0.02395
0
0.00000
2006M02
0
0.04831
0
0.01012
0
0.00421
0
0.04982
0
0.00351
0
0.00506
0
0.02937
0
0.00000
2006M03
0
0.00009
0
0.04194
0
0.01045
0
0.04968
0
0.00024
0
0.00689
0
0.02214
0
0.00000
2006M04
0
0.00117
0
0.01740
0
0.03225
0
0.03564
0
0.00004
0
0.00014
0
0.00263
0
0.00015
2006M05
0
0.00001
0
0.00546
0
0.01339
0
0.01505
0
0.00041
0
0.00404
0
0.00636
0
0.00059
2006M06
0
0.02214
0
0.00621
0
0.02506
0
0.02857
0
0.02487
0
0.33392
0
0.15770
0
0.00026
2006M07
0
0.09054
0
0.00406
0
0.09197
0
0.04402
0
0.00604
0
0.58218
0
0.04507
0
0.00005
2006M08
0
0.04610
0
0.03988
0
0.15717
0
0.03090
0
0.00044
0
0.46473
0
0.22244
0
0.00135
2006M09
0
0.13267
0
0.09092
0
0.02895
0
0.03258
0
0.00352
0
0.05242
0
0.37470
0
0.00092
2006M10
0
0.03591
0
0.23004
0
0.04975
0
0.02680
0
0.00958
0
0.13522
0
0.21828
0
0.00023
2006M11
0
0.04100
0
0.18590
0
0.06700
0
0.03477
0
0.02636
0
0.22306
0
0.05098
0
0.00005
2006M12
0
0.01722
0
0.06630
0
0.06261
0
0.02973
0
0.00024
0
0.06903
0
0.04596
0
0.00000

Chart 17:  In-sample Fitted Values - United States

Data for Chart 17 follows Chart 20.

Chart 18:  In-sample Fitted Values - Canada

Data for Chart 18 follows Chart 20.

Chart 19:  In-sample Fitted Values - Japan

Data for Chart 19 follows Chart 20.

Chart 20:  In-sample Fitted Values - Germany

Data for Chart 20 below.

Data for Charts 17 through 20

Country
U.S.
U.S.
U.S.
Canada
Canada
Canada
Japan
Japan
Japan
Germany
Germany
Germany
Date
Actual
Predicted
Panel
Actual
Predicted
Panel
Actual
Predicted
Panel
Actual
Predicted
Panel
OBS
USPT
USPTF
cycus
CAPT
CAPTF
cycca
JAPT
JAPTF
cycja
GEPT
GEPTF
cycge
1972M01
-
-
-
0
0.01677
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1972M02
-
-
-
0
0.00033
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1972M03
-
-
-
0
0.00726
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1972M04
-
-
-
0
0.00075
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1972M05
-
-
-
0
0.00004
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1972M06
-
-
-
0
0.00197
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1972M07
-
-
-
0
0.02179
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1972M08
-
-
-
0
0.00975
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1972M09
-
-
-
0
0.00024
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1972M10
-
-
-
0
0.00011
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1972M11
-
-
-
0
0.00156
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1972M12
-
-
-
0
0.01094
-
-
-
-
0
0.00006
-
1973M01
-
-
-
0
0.00002
-
-
-
-
0
0.00003
-
1973M02
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
0
0.00021
-
1973M03
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
0
0.00092
-
1973M04
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
0
0.04857
-
1973M05
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
0
0.16036
-
1973M06
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
0
0.42166
-
1973M07
-
-
-
0
0.00011
-
-
-
-
0
0.21935
-
1973M08
0
0.02643
0.13545
0
0.00006
-
-
-
-
0
0.22693
-
1973M09
0
0.00823
0.16915
0
0.08401
-
-
-
-
1
0.63552
-
1973M10
0
0.21118
0.20537
0
0.01371
0.02242
-
-
-
1
0.99949
0.98818
1973M11
0
0.02914
0.33042
0
0.05321
0.02334
-
-
-
1
1.00000
0.94338
1973M12
1
0.34527
0.34635
0
0.00001
0.05592
-
-
-
1
1.00000
0.98420
1974M01
1
0.51552
0.62139
0
0.00005
0.06653
-
-
-
1
1.00000
0.98959
1974M02
1
0.64022
0.46609
0
0.00006
0.03795
-
-
-
1
1.00000
0.99711
1974M03
1
0.97858
0.57902
0
0.00024
0.04744
-
-
-
1
1.00000
0.99907
1974M04
1
0.36114
0.58568
0
0.00284
0.06371
-
-
-
1
1.00000
0.99444
1974M05
1
0.63730
0.56282
0
0.02647
0.09585
-
-
-
1
1.00000
0.98243
1974M06
1
0.78845
0.71484
0
0.00816
0.12150
-
-
-
1
0.99999
0.95107
1974M07
1
0.90131
0.64127
0
0.33755
0.14035
-
-
-
1
0.99983
0.89164
1974M08
1
0.82575
0.75431
0
0.28540
0.19748
-
-
-
1
0.99567
0.60520
1974M09
1
0.83673
0.83099
0
0.09161
0.20377
-
-
-
1
0.93467
0.60738
1974M10
1
0.98482
0.95828
0
0.03458
0.28716
1
0.50406
-
1
0.70460
0.54201
1974M11
1
0.99958
0.95581
0
0.37298
0.19018
1
0.49746
-
1
0.45836
0.55484
1974M12
1
0.93702
0.93125
0
0.14190
0.16082
1
0.30235
-
1
0.46868
0.65215
1975M01
1
0.99712
0.94043
1
0.17624
0.20304
1
0.39202
0.77097
1
0.37692
0.60006
1975M02
1
0.88220
0.93276
1
0.11641
0.12549
1
0.58042
0.74524
1
0.66590
0.43017
1975M03
1
0.53018
0.95846
1
0.66518
0.08238
0
0.91034
0.55141
1
0.51548
0.66935
1975M04
0
0.38533
0.85465
0
0.14887
0.10714
0
0.84852
0.70978
1
0.62847
0.56399
1975M05
0
0.04438
0.81027
0
0.30227
0.18484
0
0.58549
0.83410
1
0.42702
0.37166
1975M06
0
0.41766
0.57876
0
0.00166
0.16514
0
0.94381
0.86506
1
0.41724
0.35070
1975M07
0
0.01970
0.16903
0
0.00119
0.07854
0
0.81443
0.69592
1
0.18609
0.16876
1975M08
0
0.00469
0.04364
0
0.00099
0.09883
0
0.64579
0.73344
0
0.06461
0.27033
1975M09
0
0.08517
0.02998
0
0.04245
0.09584
0
0.45767
0.67553
0
0.00563
0.17334
1975M10
0
0.12979
0.01030
0
0.11508
0.07465
0
0.73707
0.67406
0
0.00537
0.17586
1975M11
0
0.00636
0.00372
0
0.02907
0.12581
0
0.25365
0.56258
0
0.00930
0.04334
1975M12
0
0.02990
0.00230
0
0.04780
0.09885
0
0.07129
0.37278
0
0.00013
0.01275
1976M01
0
0.01568
0.00255
0
0.00444
0.09120
0
0.09577
0.26123
0
0.00011
0.00630
1976M02
0
0.00448
0.00116
0
0.00229
0.04540
0
0.40512
0.24393
0
0.00003
0.00171
1976M03
0
0.00000
0.00044
0
0.00000
0.03111
0
0.31963
0.15870
0
0.00000
0.00328
1976M04
0
0.00002
0.00011
0
0.00000
0.02124
0
0.09657
0.08300
0
0.00000
0.00089
1976M05
0
0.00000
0.00006
0
0.00001
0.02176
0
0.28871
0.04476
0
0.00000
0.00150
1976M06
0
0.00002
0.00012
0
0.00153
0.04219
0
0.17528
0.02633
0
0.00003
0.00590
1976M07
0
0.00000
0.00023
0
0.01357
0.05371
0
0.03342
0.04356
0
0.00001
0.00711
1976M08
0
0.00000
0.00030
0
0.04165
0.12120
0
0.04332
0.10602
0
0.00001
0.00710
1976M09
0
0.00000
0.00091
0
0.22294
0.18468
0
0.01888
0.08519
0
0.00009
0.00843
1976M10
0
0.00001
0.00074
0
0.11198
0.17179
0
0.00985
0.05789
0
0.00010
0.02853
1976M11
0
0.00005
0.00145
0
0.13639
0.22579
0
0.00408
0.05996
0
0.00002
0.02656
1976M12
0
0.00009
0.00202
0
0.39359
0.30404
0
0.00387
0.06144
0
0.00036
0.01506
1977M01
0
0.00004
0.00181
0
0.19807
0.26477
0
0.01207
0.03693
0
0.00012
0.01460
1977M02
0
0.00003
0.00102
0
0.07426
0.18011
0
0.00627
0.01617
0
0.00057
0.01806
1977M03
0
0.00068
0.00080
0
0.10289
0.16202
0
0.00813
0.00619
0
0.00459
0.05634
1977M04
0
0.00017
0.00111
0
0.18959
0.21968
0
0.04723
0.00914
0
0.01699
0.04809
1977M05
0
0.00011
0.00124
0
0.18239
0.12303
0
0.02437
0.02242
0
0.00967
0.05246
1977M06
0
0.00001
0.00056
0
0.05699
0.14861
0
0.02408
0.02607
0
0.02746
0.07112
1977M07
0
0.00001
0.00035
0
0.07617
0.14007
0
0.08205
0.04344
0
0.07346
0.22511
1977M08
0
0.00030
0.00046
0
0.07127
0.07214
0
0.17194
0.08939
0
0.05169
0.30592
1977M09
0
0.00000
0.00040
0
0.08261
0.08387
0
0.11242
0.07278
0
0.03240
0.17305
1977M10
0
0.00024
0.00121
0
0.05302
0.08344
0
0.02000
0.11952
0
0.11769
0.37886
1977M11
0
0.00001
0.00461
0
0.03104
0.08009
0
0.03993
0.08618
0
0.18847
0.19174
1977M12
0
0.00100
0.00897
0
0.02049
0.06873
0
0.15683
0.05833
0
0.10729
0.14029
1978M01
0
0.00004
0.01093
0
0.02882
0.04318
0
0.31440
0.14442
0
0.09391
0.11874
1978M02
0
0.00449
0.01841
0
0.00725
0.06700
0
0.15566
0.06808
0
0.14887
0.20602
1978M03
0
0.00436
0.02215
0
0.02530
0.06125
0
0.15512
0.04520
0
0.13906
0.16870
1978M04
0
0.00057
0.04125
0
0.00163
0.05316
0
0.06144
0.01967
0
0.12979
0.07137
1978M05
0
0.00076
0.02756
0
0.00048
0.02933
0
0.08637
0.03567
0
0.20936
0.32515
1978M06
0
0.00000
0.00585
0
0.00072
0.01776
0
0.09397
0.06803
0
0.19703
0.47696
1978M07
0
0.00009
0.00159
0
0.00071
0.03919
0
0.04246
0.04441
0
0.06345
0.37852
1978M08
0
0.00003
0.00128
0
0.00008
0.02947
0
0.02654
0.05335
0
0.04931
0.23713
1978M09
0
0.00003
0.00146
0
0.00005
0.03008
0
0.00550
0.04925
0
0.06276
0.15974
1978M10
0
0.00000
0.00277
0
0.00017
0.05460
0
0.00429
0.04439
0
0.05993
0.07105
1978M11
0
0.00005
0.01331
0
0.00144
0.05324
0
0.00422
0.02167
0
0.02302
0.03581
1978M12
0
0.00060
0.04978
0
0.00025
0.07677
0
0.00147
0.00654
0
0.01164
0.02832
1979M01
0
0.00639
0.05162
0
0.00446
0.10793
0
0.00355
0.00826
0
0.00480
0.05463
1979M02
0
0.00058
0.06364
0
0.00390
0.17105
0
0.00576
0.00598
0
0.00259
0.03785
1979M03
0
0.02951
0.04332
0
0.01171
0.16450
0
0.00382
0.01698
0
0.00428
0.04391
1979M04
0
0.02836
0.10928
0
0.01193
0.15847
0
0.00078
0.01831
0
0.01803
0.09384
1979M05
0
0.02241
0.09695
0
0.00824
0.17336
0
0.00078
0.04320
0
0.00582
0.17220
1979M06
0
0.00654
0.09791
0
0.00723
0.22085
0
0.00015
0.01896
0
0.00564
0.11630
1979M07
0
0.00874
0.14942
0
0.01601
0.24098
0
0.00002
0.01953
0
0.00306
0.05385
1979M08
0
0.00901
0.16172
0
0.04048
0.23911
0
0.00132
0.00651
0
0.00317
0.02696
1979M09
0
0.07610
0.14692
0
0.00828
0.22565
0
0.00028
0.00120
0
0.00217
0.02517
1979M10
0
0.02099
0.17454
0
0.02132
0.29863
0
0.00035
0.00401
0
0.04720
0.06563
1979M11
0
0.47104
0.33549
0
0.06501
0.35226
0
0.00033
0.00126
0
0.04943
0.22616
1979M12
0
0.36419
0.47153
0
0.10252
0.41106
0
0.00492
0.00558
0
0.06954
0.35313
1980M01
0
0.58708
0.59858
0
0.15953
0.49326
0
0.00669
0.00441
0
0.12383
0.53528
1980M02
1
0.54029
0.42985
1
0.04846
0.32873
0
0.00361
0.00360
1
0.40721
0.52356
1980M03
1
0.58203
0.50633
1
0.04660
0.31150
0
0.00497
0.01793
1
0.74130
0.38696
1980M04
1
0.92873
0.75696
1
0.23187
0.59200
0
0.11309
0.00890
1
0.88937
0.58347
1980M05
1
0.92957
0.58843
1
0.41342
0.51929
0
0.10269
0.00660
1
0.99193
0.53888
1980M06
1
0.88124
0.90530
1
0.52410
0.53633
0
0.42916
0.01221
1
0.98544
0.64856
1980M07
1
0.98964
0.96260
0
0.80697
0.54149
0
0.35456
0.01960
1
0.88945
0.79698
1980M08
0
0.13645
0.69676
0
0.33948
0.27133
0
0.42002
0.20603
1
0.92186
0.83808
1980M09
0
0.74251
0.93124
0
0.48415
0.23450
0
0.18998
0.35122
1
0.83795
0.90596
1980M10
0
0.70880
0.93664
0
0.19261
0.21669
0
0.07528
0.22797
1
0.97197
0.89730
1980M11
0
0.07612
0.30827
0
0.00049
0.05697
0
0.02706
0.47807
1
0.99555
0.89022
1980M12
0
0.18756
0.07489
0
0.00026
0.02503
0
0.01340
0.46838
1
0.99945
0.97055
1981M01
0
0.14518
0.03544
0
0.00005
0.03096
0
0.03667
0.22433
1
0.99897
0.96050
1981M02
0
0.04133
0.02908
0
0.00080
0.04358
0
0.08658
0.10871
1
0.99616
0.93510
1981M03
0
0.50650
0.15879
0
0.00054
0.34667
0
0.09974
0.07221
1
0.99400
0.95026
1981M04
0
0.34602
0.54819
0
0.00136
0.33428
0
0.04801
0.06410
1
0.98324
0.87989
1981M05
0
0.21650
0.52584
0
0.04460
0.37654
0
0.04141
0.07260
1
0.98605
0.81979
1981M06
0
0.47822
0.74629
0
0.75587
0.79616
0
0.01980
0.05771
1
0.99674
0.94851
1981M07
0
0.79903
0.88801
1
0.78939
0.80752
0
0.01255
0.08302
1
0.97884
0.85934
1981M08
1
0.71003
0.67569
1
0.53502
0.80894
0
0.02227
0.21191
1
0.97967
0.90125
1981M09
1
0.82277
0.62504
1
0.88842
0.83698
0
0.00597
0.07246
1
1.00000
0.98202
1981M10
1
0.59524
0.72165
1
0.93971
0.92780
0
0.01663
0.05350
1
1.00000
0.97656
1981M11
1
0.96228
0.78948
1
0.99922
0.96307
0
0.04096
0.06013
1
0.99993
0.96516
1981M12
1
0.41133
0.79975
1
0.99998
0.93016
0
0.04004
0.01924
1
0.99945
0.94472
1982M01
1
0.97256
0.79246
1
0.99987
0.83222
0
0.01300
0.02524
1
0.99965
0.90511
1982M02
1
0.37514
0.70220
1
0.99997
0.85243
0
0.01118
0.03128
1
0.99979
0.91413
1982M03
1
0.67155
0.52185
1
0.99932
0.74016
0
0.03864
0.03439
1
0.99885
0.92225
1982M04
1
0.23568
0.48671
1
0.98932
0.45946
0
0.08394
0.09408
1
0.99655
0.86380
1982M05
1
0.65619
0.48446
1
0.91461
0.25458
0
0.14088
0.14783
1
0.99604
0.85521
1982M06
1
0.57773
0.26197
1
0.99035
0.47612
0
0.10118
0.08403
1
0.99645
0.77772
1982M07
1
0.87886
0.25390
1
0.96618
0.42585
0
0.03246
0.21601
1
0.97907
0.74716
1982M08
1
0.84513
0.48809
1
0.98373
0.33549
0
0.09902
0.27606
1
0.97785
0.77848
1982M09
1
0.80575
0.56081
1
0.99487
0.41982
0
0.08956
0.13019
1
0.98301
0.85578
1982M10
1
0.63901
0.27477
1
0.97432
0.24139
0
0.06384
0.17995
1
0.99042
0.96387
1982M11
1
0.10226
0.15263
0
0.85359
0.17981
0
0.04391
0.10214
0
0.98737
0.90163
1982M12
0
0.14273
0.05210
0
0.63109
0.20287
0
0.02092
0.05129
0
0.98426
0.83377
1983M01
0
0.00207
0.05751
0
0.05673
0.03452
0
0.03348
0.06743
0
0.95830
0.70336
1983M02
0
0.00228
0.01274
0
0.00763
0.01939
0
0.09096
0.05875
0
0.84763
0.70381
1983M03
0
0.00003
0.02201
0
0.00360
0.01595
0
0.29073
0.08426
0
0.75410
0.56233
1983M04
0
0.00024
0.01400
0
0.00032
0.00956
0
0.18127
0.05373
0
0.42829
0.18722
1983M05
0
0.00025
0.00707
0
0.00008
0.00522
0
0.14443
0.03628
0
0.17296
0.21633
1983M06
0
0.00027
0.00369
0
0.00000
0.00339
0
0.22174
0.07551
0
0.14017
0.10393
1983M07
0
0.00006
0.00083
0
0.00000
0.00245
0
0.17398
0.12674
0
0.07693
0.04400
1983M08
0
0.00000
0.00032
0
0.00000
0.00246
0
0.10251
0.15378
0
0.01310
0.06538
1983M09
0
0.00003
0.00110
0
0.00000
0.00321
0
0.02558
0.12755
0
0.01974
0.02321
1983M10
0
0.00026
0.00100
0
0.00000
0.00340
0
0.02678
0.13305
0
0.04610
0.15452
1983M11
0
0.00001
0.00080
0
0.00003
0.00792
0
0.01966
0.06875
0
0.00804
0.17308
1983M12
0
0.00121
0.00041
0
0.00219
0.00525
0
0.01485
0.04564
0
0.00351
0.08404
1984M01
0
0.00001
0.00054
0
0.00592
0.00689
0
0.01473
0.02661
0
0.01052
0.07888
1984M02
0
0.00022
0.00043
0
0.00289
0.00794
0
0.00754
0.01791
0
0.00381
0.02861
1984M03
0
0.00002
0.00132
0
0.02208
0.01582
0
0.00608
0.02191
0
0.00104
0.01901
1984M04
0
0.00069
0.00105
0
0.00456
0.03363
0
0.00703
0.00531
0
0.01227
0.04348
1984M05
0
0.00000
0.00067
0
0.01057
0.02395
0
0.00461
0.00406
0
0.01808
0.10117
1984M06
0
0.00001
0.00035
0
0.03009
0.03341
0
0.00223
0.01763
0
0.02771
0.16354
1984M07
0
0.00003
0.00203
0
0.03419
0.03299
0
0.01077
0.03266
0
0.05851
0.19363
1984M08
0
0.00207
0.00114
0
0.00357
0.04180
0
0.02038
0.03562
0
0.05713
0.19678
1984M09
0
0.00002
0.00112
0
0.00052
0.01749
0
0.00070
0.00925
0
0.04417
0.73019
1984M10
0
0.00001
0.00087
0
0.00165
0.02085
0
0.00299
0.01741
0
0.02984
0.14981
1984M11
0
0.00013
0.00133
0
0.00271
0.02575
0
0.00344
0.01012
0
0.02709
0.03963
1984M12
0
0.00003
0.00800
0
0.00606
0.04027
0
0.00149
0.01038
0
0.04981
0.01404
1985M01
0
0.00026
0.00488
0
0.02835
0.07138
0
0.00566
0.00673
0
0.04018
0.03253
1985M02
0
0.00004
0.01029
0
0.00766
0.03004
0
0.00348
0.00456
0
0.01429
0.09960
1985M03
0
0.00004
0.00279
0
0.01006
0.04408
0
0.00324
0.01062
0
0.01218
0.09634
1985M04
0
0.00016
0.00156
0
0.00655
0.02793
0
0.00153
0.01023
0
0.07885
0.22952
1985M05
0
0.00010
0.00333
0
0.00272
0.03171
0
0.00883
0.02290
0
0.10422
0.16959
1985M06
0
0.00000
0.00049
0
0.00041
0.02201
0
0.01366
0.04616
0
0.08447
0.18076
1985M07
0
0.00001
0.00092
0
0.00006
0.01114
0
0.01416
0.03005
0
0.03730
0.09859
1985M08
0
0.00001
0.00196
0
0.01038
0.02974
0
0.02999
0.01968
0
0.05820
0.06467
1985M09
0
0.00038
0.00315
0
0.00063
0.04852
0
0.04785
0.03795
0
0.13233
0.04280
1985M10
0
0.00254
0.00929
0
0.00024
0.02162
0
0.08655
0.04057
0
0.02545
0.02208
1985M11
0
0.00083
0.01576
0
0.00370
0.03374
0
0.04012
0.03449
0
0.01263
0.02581
1985M12
0
0.00259
0.00739
0
0.02513
0.03777
0
0.03127
0.10592
0
0.01049
0.06749
1986M01
0
0.00055
0.00634
0
0.00077
0.01976
0
0.14548
0.09891
0
0.02281
0.02947
1986M02
0
0.00125
0.00873
0
0.00056
0.03872
0
0.08302
0.04394
0
0.00109
0.00784
1986M03
0
0.00011
0.00525
0
0.00015
0.05450
0
0.10997
0.04410
0
0.00188
0.05115
1986M04
0
0.00000
0.00459
0
0.00067
0.03787
0
0.03626
0.02318
0
0.00529
0.03381
1986M05
0
0.00000
0.00669
0
0.00462
0.11811
0
0.02037
0.03323
0
0.00860
0.07706
1986M06
0
0.00000
0.04931
0
0.00280
0.13191
0
0.01750
0.04936
0
0.00797
0.08274
1986M07
0
0.00024
0.05130
0
0.08591
0.16388
0
0.09063
0.07638
0
0.05695
0.09185
1986M08
0
0.00000
0.07253
0
0.14231
0.27491
0
0.06265
0.03729
0
0.01019
0.13623
1986M09
0
0.00164
0.09509
0
0.26151
0.17534
0
0.03922
0.06133
0
0.03536
0.08583
1986M10
0
0.08000
0.10300
0
0.15432
0.16289
0
0.24676
0.14635
0
0.08573
0.12668
1986M11
0
0.04247
0.09174
0
0.07242
0.10663
0
0.12487
0.26174
0
0.18004
0.14878
1986M12
0
0.02550
0.04528
0
0.06389
0.12461
0
0.12381
0.24746
0
0.10436
0.20046
1987M01
0
0.06937
0.05773
0
0.05964
0.10519
0
0.10110
0.11178
0
0.03529
0.16604
1987M02
0
0.08322
0.03488
0
0.06747
0.07533
0
0.02320
0.15645
0
0.07059
0.12552
1987M03
0
0.01048
0.01215
0
0.02014
0.05045
0
0.07613
0.13868
0
0.25365
0.28351
1987M04
0
0.00172
0.00806
0
0.00392
0.02206
0
0.10451
0.09415
0
0.06593
0.43230
1987M05
0
0.00097
0.00808
0
0.00058
0.03257
0
0.10139
0.04680
0
0.04643
0.29201
1987M06
0
0.01253
0.02466
0
0.00014
0.03125
0
0.15635
0.03728
0
0.23333
0.32165
1987M07
0
0.00022
0.01106
0
0.00006
0.02865
0
0.12950
0.14772
0
0.19768
0.08628
1987M08
0
0.00033
0.00630
0
0.00029
0.01434
0
0.09441
0.32451
0
0.01534
0.00946
1987M09
0
0.00064
0.00591
0
0.00087
0.02018
0
0.03851
0.11450
0
0.00785
0.03130
1987M10
0
0.00018
0.00423
0
0.00530
0.06261
0
0.00301
0.05347
0
0.02601
0.08937
1987M11
0
0.00316
0.00500
0
0.00191
0.16575
0
0.00652
0.16614
0
0.02202
0.20219
1987M12
0
0.01089
0.02129
0
0.02999
0.16395
0
0.12014
0.09139
0
0.01859
0.28312
1988M01
0
0.01884
0.01506
0
0.18130
0.07395
0
0.10513
0.04853
0
0.00889
0.27038
1988M02
0
0.00024
0.00462
0
0.05118
0.06407
0
0.00410
0.02309
0
0.01282
0.19835
1988M03
0
0.00141
0.00354
0
0.14806
0.06383
0
0.00132
0.00743
0
0.09170
0.09000
1988M04
0
0.00055
0.00312
0
0.00233
0.02539
0
0.00058
0.00354
0
0.10259
0.11099
1988M05
0
0.00046
0.00526
0
0.00127
0.02543
0
0.00021
0.00074
0
0.01952
0.05481
1988M06
0
0.00001
0.00187
0
0.00268
0.03634
0
0.00049
0.00264
0
0.00318
0.11227
1988M07
0
0.00000
0.00224
0
0.02937
0.03231
0
0.00004
0.00328
0
0.00006
0.03918
1988M08
0
0.00001
0.00276
0
0.03092
0.04472
0
0.00003
0.00887
0
0.00002
0.01766
1988M09
0
0.00005
0.00842
0
0.03827
0.08530
0
0.00002
0.01165
0
0.00082
0.01630
1988M10
0
0.00060
0.00899
0
0.09692
0.10010
0
0.00001
0.00749
0
0.00028
0.03040
1988M11
0
0.00011
0.00783
0
0.06856
0.07934
0
0.00006
0.00463
0
0.00001
0.01386
1988M12
0
0.00015
0.01824
0
0.02708
0.15373
0
0.00001
0.00059
0
0.00010
0.02095
1989M01
0
0.00043
0.02275
0
0.03560
0.13584
0
0.00001
0.00202
0
0.01009
0.07186
1989M02
0
0.00942
0.02176
0
0.02022
0.14571
0
0.00000
0.00035
0
0.00832
0.08771
1989M03
0
0.00859
0.02957
0
0.00223
0.20704
0
0.00000
0.00015
0
0.00609
0.03989
1989M04
0
0.00542
0.03962
0
0.02585
0.17789
0
0.00000
0.00012
0
0.02457
0.05820
1989M05
0
0.03184
0.05243
0
0.04410
0.29204
0
0.00000
0.00027
0
0.01371
0.12352
1989M06
0
0.00783
0.05025
0
0.37686
0.25053
0
0.00001
0.00018
0
0.02156
0.19469
1989M07
0
0.00995
0.05989
0
0.32123
0.35602
0
0.00001
0.00089
0
0.06494
0.12156
1989M08
0
0.00849
0.15447
0
0.47170
0.45520
0
0.00003
0.00126
0
0.08512
0.27851
1989M09
0
0.05780
0.18261
0
0.42246
0.49118
0
0.00003
0.00134
0
0.08093
0.20652
1989M10
0
0.01966
0.24854
0
0.23783
0.60763
0
0.00000
0.00579
0
0.08557
0.12016
1989M11
0
0.08908
0.27006
0
0.45847
0.62764
0
0.00005
0.00285
0
0.18307
0.21579
1989M12
0
0.15682
0.29792
0
0.65574
0.65713
0
0.00003
0.00251
0
0.23324
0.19112
1990M01
0
0.49243
0.39056
0
0.69420
0.70195
0
0.00001
0.00239
0
0.15099
0.19899
1990M02
0
0.35410
0.31470
0
0.72589
0.75623
0
0.00001
0.00192
0
0.15429
0.19360
1990M03
0
0.65986
0.27335
0
0.70491
0.77183
0
0.00006
0.00556
0
0.48125
0.16786
1990M04
0
0.38564
0.24908
1
0.75998
0.69391
0
0.01568
0.01800
0
0.71936
0.11973
1990M05
0
0.28992
0.19590
1
0.86882
0.78888
0
0.00947
0.01588
0
0.22892
0.14571
1990M06
0
0.24903
0.13246
1
0.87662
0.76275
0
0.00091
0.00398
0
0.48899
0.18300
1990M07
0
0.03830
0.06950
1
0.97200
0.66153
0
0.00016
0.00327
0
0.43336
0.43538
1990M08
1
0.02808
0.06476
1
0.91080
0.74691
0
0.00032
0.00199
0
0.11934
0.20914
1990M09
1
0.07337
0.13169
1
0.92237
0.78513
0
0.08713
0.02104
0
0.11439
0.23703
1990M10
1
0.61789
0.19534
1
0.88259
0.77806
0
0.10588
0.02413
0
0.34015
0.44307
1990M11
1
0.47715
0.27942
1
0.97416
0.81150
0
0.00913
0.00457
0
0.25461
0.28418
1990M12
1
0.84455
0.23152
1
0.99863
0.77102
0
0.00399
0.02995
0
0.04039
0.24032
1991M01
1
0.35752
0.25012
1
0.99868
0.69884
0
0.00022
0.00480
0
0.24214
0.23687
1991M02
1
0.89425
0.28228
1
0.99518
0.65918
0
0.10423
0.01224
1
0.59036
0.30253
1991M03
1
0.07403
0.16436
1
0.96122
0.56506
0
0.02644
0.00117
1
0.15058
0.22202
1991M04
0
0.00036
0.08165
1
0.90937
0.37031
0
0.00019
0.00223
1
0.03528
0.10267
1991M05
0
0.00193
0.04843
1
0.81014
0.36841
0
0.01055
0.00817
1
0.25806
0.23365
1991M06
0
0.00000
0.04807
1
0.38227
0.34085
0
0.01716
0.03379
1
0.38643
0.31062
1991M07
0
0.01657
0.02633
1
0.08608
0.20119
0
0.07488
0.09472
1
0.24889
0.49235
1991M08
0
0.00001
0.01491
1
0.15216
0.14389
0
0.00693
0.05140
1
0.52123
0.59827
1991M09
0
0.01379
0.00354
1
0.27833
0.11216
0
0.05201
0.29085
1
0.51976
0.41460
1991M10
0
0.00134
0.00263
1
0.22052
0.10549
0
0.01271
0.07628
1
0.47005
0.50153
1991M11
0
0.02227
0.00427
1
0.24509
0.08726
0
0.01240
0.07518
1
0.66891
0.64564
1991M12
0
0.00019
0.00265
1
0.13898
0.08203
0
0.01104
0.12423
1
0.69192
0.74793
1992M01
0
0.00055
0.00289
1
0.25807
0.07826
0
0.01601
0.06889
1
0.57330
0.61235
1992M02
0
0.00000
0.00155
1
0.25178
0.08044
0
0.28789
0.07243
1
0.70952
0.38997
1992M03
0
0.00000
0.00246
1
0.23750
0.10326
0
0.09163
0.09548
1
0.72832
0.37348
1992M04
0
0.00002
0.00364
1
0.18099
0.10084
0
0.34256
0.28239
1
0.85288
0.39167
1992M05
0
0.00000
0.00541
0
0.38821
0.13104
1
0.61363
0.36651
1
0.90213
0.39426
1992M06
0
0.00104
0.00190
0
0.33567
0.14933
1
0.41600
0.39931
1
0.87655
0.59384
1992M07
0
0.00001
0.00062
0
0.19786
0.08450
1
0.50745
0.45621
1
0.90022
0.76436
1992M08
0
0.00150
0.00057
0
0.19191
0.06169
1
0.28515
0.65418
1
0.97291
0.88777
1992M09
0
0.00002
0.00048
0
0.12676
0.04136
1
0.36742
0.45076
1
0.98996
0.95319
1992M10
0
0.00160
0.00040
0
0.09626
0.03261
1
0.12884
0.11592
1
0.99051
0.96689
1992M11
0
0.00000
0.00056
0
0.04931
0.02903
1
0.07276
0.28161
1
0.99603
0.93616
1992M12
0
0.00003
0.00044
0
0.01599
0.02864
1
0.58588
0.15054
1
0.99889
0.93682
1993M01
0
0.00000
0.00021
0
0.02516
0.03194
1
0.39989
0.20172
1
0.99964
0.87572
1993M02
0
0.00000
0.00009
0
0.01607
0.10269
1
0.27231
0.37726
1
0.99959
0.91310
1993M03
0
0.00000
0.00010
0
0.01297
0.05311
1
0.62214
0.39211
1
0.99893
0.95260
1993M04
0
0.00001
0.00014
0
0.00942
0.03082
1
0.45853
0.27666
1
0.99195
0.94314
1993M05
0
0.00000
0.00014
0
0.14913
0.09162
1
0.12807
0.08026
1
0.99475
0.97914
1993M06
0
0.00000
0.00032
0
0.06414
0.02114
1
0.17376
0.25107
1
0.99833
0.94664
1993M07
0
0.00000
0.00043
0
0.01320
0.01821
1
0.29585
0.34433
1
0.99021
0.91027
1993M08
0
0.00006
0.00136
0
0.00161
0.00987
1
0.47473
0.20963
1
0.98135
0.80897
1993M09
0
0.00000
0.00217
0
0.00175
0.00647
1
0.15801
0.25922
1
0.98880
0.75684
1993M10
0
0.00016
0.00214
0
0.00178
0.01305
1
0.05323
0.31163
1
0.97714
0.81131
1993M11
0
0.00000
0.00096
0
0.00074
0.00791
1
0.37936
0.50427
1
0.92731
0.48648
1993M12
0
0.00008
0.00165
0
0.00102
0.00880
1
0.87628
0.47949
1
0.84672
0.50326
1994M01
0
0.00004
0.00148
0
0.00019
0.00609
1
0.85991
0.59892
1
0.82177
0.42131
1994M02
0
0.00001
0.00067
0
0.01255
0.00689
1
0.65035
0.38151
1
0.62555
0.48428
1994M03
0
0.00006
0.00123
0
0.00918
0.01188
0
0.26836
0.36700
1
0.86334
0.63888
1994M04
0
0.00002
0.00099
0
0.00116
0.01299
0
0.32919
0.59154
1
0.85159
0.63139
1994M05
0
0.00008
0.00143
0
0.00044
0.00841
0
0.87533
0.42026
0
0.63628
0.54236
1994M06
0
0.00026
0.00103
0
0.00061
0.01496
0
0.38717
0.22873
0
0.58116
0.32780
1994M07
0
0.00003
0.00052
0
0.00008
0.01333
0
0.05521
0.15418
0
0.80210
0.32151
1994M08
0
0.00237
0.00112
0
0.00111
0.02075
0
0.14892
0.19690
0
0.57585
0.25597
1994M09
0
0.00005
0.00052
0
0.00183
0.01836
0
0.14485
0.28031
0
0.17535
0.12782
1994M10
0
0.00008
0.00031
0
0.00175
0.00499
0
0.08126
0.18239
0
0.13063
0.20476
1994M11
0
0.00001
0.00045
0
0.00048
0.00653
0
0.03710
0.14711
0
0.13624
0.11112
1994M12
0
0.00000
0.00062
0
0.00226
0.00867
0
0.09002
0.17520
0
0.00536
0.07075
1995M01
0
0.00000
0.00049
0
0.00001
0.00230
0
0.04150
0.09565
0
0.00403
0.02386
1995M02
0
0.00000
0.00040
0
0.00049
0.00322
0
0.05538
0.10051
0
0.00873
0.01879
1995M03
0
0.00000
0.00046
0
0.00014
0.00720
0
0.13950
0.08510
0
0.00571
0.02952
1995M04
0
0.00001
0.00031
0
0.00828
0.01131
0
0.32842
0.15408
0
0.00131
0.14441
1995M05
0
0.00001
0.00125
0
0.00109
0.01496
0
0.23675
0.09302
0
0.01056
0.14029
1995M06
0
0.00019
0.00266
0
0.05879
0.04736
0
0.12077
0.14066
0
0.01090
0.12074
1995M07
0
0.00000
0.00398
0
0.04568
0.09044
0
0.36792
0.04799
0
0.00344
0.03647
1995M08
0
0.00002
0.01341
0
0.03398
0.05197
0
0.37368
0.06427
0
0.01477
0.02598
1995M09
0
0.00005
0.02029
0
0.08678
0.08917
0
0.03652
0.10776
0
0.01848
0.07455
1995M10
0
0.00080
0.03286
0
0.06875
0.08685
0
0.00278
0.12454
0
0.00422
0.08705
1995M11
0
0.00088
0.02803
0
0.04023
0.05696
0
0.13106
0.24359
0
0.01587
0.15328
1995M12
0
0.01863
0.03601
0
0.01903
0.05662
0
0.18862
0.19600
0
0.01387
0.11681
1996M01
0
0.00049
0.04424
0
0.08382
0.03076
0
0.01302
0.12933
0
0.00837
0.15171
1996M02
0
0.14031
0.05973
0
0.01168
0.01826
0
0.00412
0.10818
0
0.03176
0.10875
1996M03
0
0.02098
0.07718
0
0.00593
0.03086
0
0.02649
0.08272
0
0.01432
0.12597
1996M04
0
0.09178
0.14123
0
0.00212
0.01913
0
0.03074
0.07597
0
0.01622
0.14656
1996M05
0
0.19495
0.06066
0
0.01992
0.01771
0
0.01026
0.13713
0
0.02357
0.19263
1996M06
0
0.01676
0.04510
0
0.00566
0.01700
0
0.00320
0.10917
0
0.01769
0.14817
1996M07
0
0.04336
0.03045
0
0.00441
0.01031
0
0.00728
0.15300
0
0.01164
0.05481
1996M08
0
0.01679
0.02338
0
0.03266
0.01867
0
0.03970
0.08888
0
0.00788
0.02480
1996M09
0
0.03619
0.02163
0
0.00406
0.00948
0
0.02788
0.06547
0
0.00205
0.02085
1996M10
0
0.00431
0.01052
0
0.00141
0.00364
0
0.04266
0.06830
0
0.00123
0.06085
1996M11
0
0.00553
0.01042
0
0.00761
0.00248
0
0.02801
0.04667
0
0.00044
0.03784
1996M12
0
0.00036
0.00818
0
0.00562
0.00188
0
0.01665
0.03698
0
0.00091
0.01649
1997M01
0
0.02711
0.01221
0
0.00023
0.00217
0
0.20733
0.06097
0
0.00065
0.03916
1997M02
0
0.00111
0.00805
0
0.00001
0.00138
0
0.16057
0.07381
0
0.00080
0.03002
1997M03
0
0.00039
0.00497
0
0.00000
0.00137
0
0.12952
0.09486
0
0.00027
0.03280
1997M04
0
0.00135
0.00876
0
0.00002
0.00157
1
0.19732
0.07059
0
0.00043
0.08795
1997M05
0
0.00196
0.01771
0
0.00017
0.00294
1
0.06423
0.05718
0
0.00111
0.05806
1997M06
0
0.00028
0.00779
0
0.00119
0.00205
1
0.07506
0.04084
0
0.00190
0.05167
1997M07
0
0.00010
0.00554
0
0.00002
0.00087
1
0.02101
0.10596
0
0.00039
0.02483
1997M08
0
0.00014
0.00392
0
0.00000
0.00112
1
0.02360
0.10968
0
0.00078
0.02237
1997M09
0
0.00005
0.00521
0
0.00000
0.00178
1
0.15484
0.10408
0
0.00022
0.02118
1997M10
0
0.00028
0.00452
0
0.00000
0.00104
1
0.22222
0.16066
0
0.00492
0.00950
1997M11
0
0.00000
0.00230
0
0.00000
0.00127
1
0.47253
0.12908
0
0.00015
0.08662
1997M12
0
0.00027
0.00476
0
0.00019
0.00642
1
0.36692
0.26606
0
0.00024
0.07943
1998M01
0
0.00014
0.00700
0
0.00322
0.01014
1
0.67914
0.43590
0
0.00119
0.06301
1998M02
0
0.00096
0.00893
0
0.00425
0.01872
1
0.70608
0.38697
0
0.00332
0.04108
1998M03
0
0.00170
0.01609
0
0.01185
0.01642
1
0.63543
0.52153
0
0.00717
0.01449
1998M04
0
0.00035
0.01625
0
0.00452
0.03102
1
0.66980
0.37844
0
0.01462
0.02313
1998M05
0
0.00228
0.01970
0
0.00132
0.03960
1
0.84650
0.59178
0
0.00209
0.03115
1998M06
0
0.00027
0.03113
0
0.00029
0.03931
1
0.97484
0.77758
0
0.01014
0.02598
1998M07
0
0.00264
0.03751
0
0.01462
0.08295
1
0.87984
0.81284
0
0.00641
0.05380
1998M08
0
0.00011
0.04696
0
0.02066
0.12720
1
0.82905
0.88582
0
0.00786
0.07218
1998M09
0
0.00379
0.08258
0
0.05370
0.29950
1
0.97095
0.93857
0
0.02699
0.19856
1998M10
0
0.11424
0.17979
0
0.28226
0.32797
1
0.99829
0.87481
0
0.14434
0.22993
1998M11
0
0.11184
0.19026
0
0.34462
0.33428
1
0.99888
0.91659
0
0.05772
0.26686
1998M12
0
0.23831
0.09000
0
0.25827
0.19880
1
0.95358
0.90394
0
0.07305
0.40884
1999M01
0
0.00167
0.06097
0
0.10049
0.19227
1
0.87350
0.82014
0
0.33117
0.36324
1999M02
0
0.02242
0.03457
0
0.18305
0.21010
1
0.96170
0.82719
0
0.64824
0.48806
1999M03
0
0.00318
0.06641
0
0.00647
0.13868
1
0.96106
0.80998
0
0.44018
0.47562
1999M04
0
0.00790
0.05649
0
0.07368
0.19760
1
0.72665
0.58209
0
0.38451
0.31737
1999M05
0
0.00001
0.02312
0
0.10557
0.09518
1
0.47302
0.61304
0
0.33870
0.43554
1999M06
0
0.00551
0.03309
0
0.05309
0.10618
1
0.71842
0.61069
0
0.28531
0.36926
1999M07
0
0.00982
0.03572
0
0.04258
0.12742
1
0.51446
0.56218
0
0.54500
0.31113
1999M08
0
0.00393
0.02603
0
0.02341
0.09095
0
0.59687
0.61819
0
0.32726
0.35416
1999M09
0
0.03093
0.02298
0
0.00463
0.06793
0
0.27480
0.55065
0
0.17483
0.17442
1999M10
0
0.02034
0.02124
0
0.03571
0.07341
0
0.53479
0.51974
0
0.08549
0.22081
1999M11
0
0.00088
0.01968
0
0.02841
0.05591
0
0.62838
0.53825
0
0.08671
0.09832
1999M12
0
0.00155
0.00787
0
0.01221
0.04257
0
0.24882
0.29478
0
0.02305
0.08286
2000M01
0
0.00000
0.00274
0
0.00745
0.02490
0
0.31776
0.25815
0
0.00789
0.03120
2000M02
0
0.00022
0.00199
0
0.00022
0.02133
0
0.36671
0.23881
0
0.00116
0.02155
2000M03
0
0.00000
0.00053
0
0.00014
0.01078
0
0.29803
0.21933
0
0.00373
0.03055
2000M04
0
0.00000
0.00051
0
0.00004
0.00913
0
0.26139
0.25451
0
0.00075
0.04475
2000M05
0
0.00000
0.00700
0
0.00036
0.01374
0
0.48561
0.46188
0
0.00288
0.06183
2000M06
0
0.00030
0.02506
0
0.00125
0.03657
0
0.77733
0.53551
0
0.00483
0.10348
2000M07
0
0.00033
0.04931
0
0.00621
0.02370
0
0.73529
0.35491
0
0.00207
0.06841
2000M08
0
0.03077
0.02634
0
0.00822
0.03750
0
0.53694
0.48055
0
0.00473
0.06906
2000M09
0
0.01847
0.07321
0
0.02679
0.06477
0
0.22981
0.26255
0
0.03640
0.28435
2000M10
0
0.42090
0.19425
0
0.01590
0.10666
0
0.59962
0.38004
0
0.09692
0.23433
2000M11
0
0.50445
0.21592
0
0.01038
0.19155
0
0.46638
0.40560
0
0.28015
0.29478
2000M12
0
0.52221
0.38436
0
0.05052
0.28320
0
0.39957
0.42791
0
0.18323
0.29800
2001M01
0
0.42050
0.57231
1
0.19163
0.26137
1
0.66666
0.51500
0
0.29088
0.35470
2001M02
0
0.95551
0.58041
1
0.30169
0.23860
1
0.28805
0.35716
1
0.42887
0.44103
2001M03
0
0.85743
0.65243
1
0.42818
0.40755
1
0.67566
0.26259
1
0.30753
0.49296
2001M04
1
0.99974
0.80921
1
0.72419
0.43732
1
0.71647
0.61637
1
0.71409
0.52646
2001M05
1
0.97630
0.79829
1
0.75955
0.38375
1
0.52557
0.57131
1
0.78591
0.44244
2001M06
1
0.93775
0.74843
1
0.48706
0.25264
1
0.61914
0.63814
1
0.46735
0.55502
2001M07
1
0.87438
0.46071
1
0.27153
0.20984
1
0.64051
0.77508
1
0.75602
0.65824
2001M08
1
0.79935
0.36774
1
0.52099
0.21753
1
0.92735
0.82313
1
0.89336
0.71945
2001M09
1
0.65844
0.43353
1
0.23928
0.19245
1
0.92282
0.92744
1
0.77301
0.67825
2001M10
1
0.81362
0.35273
0
0.15952
0.12691
1
0.95867
0.94293
1
0.72685
0.86939
2001M11
1
0.26527
0.25489
0
0.20086
0.10287
1
0.97213
0.94612
1
0.89737
0.76788
2001M12
0
0.02146
0.14479
0
0.27819
0.07936
1
0.88068
0.91320
1
0.64176
0.60811
2002M01
0
0.15330
0.05078
0
0.08765
0.02745
1
0.83096
0.90460
1
0.73800
0.58595
2002M02
0
0.00130
0.05551
0
0.08430
0.02505
1
0.94866
0.92107
1
0.93717
0.63341
2002M03
0
0.04821
0.03241
0
0.00107
0.02072
1
0.94488
0.75791
1
0.72128
0.59200
2002M04
0
0.00251
0.01013
0
0.00035
0.00378
1
0.71707
0.72768
1
0.20977
0.30373
2002M05
0
0.00011
0.00624
0
0.00000
0.00400
1
0.54167
0.60876
1
0.10898
0.29371
2002M06
0
0.06001
0.00292
0
0.00003
0.00152
1
0.66106
0.51468
1
0.24262
0.24351
2002M07
0
0.01298
0.00522
0
0.00002
0.00377
1
0.84122
0.64603
1
0.21853
0.33242
2002M08
0
0.30037
0.00970
0
0.00009
0.00708
1
0.85255
0.40127
1
0.18004
0.54580
2002M09
0
0.02883
0.00396
0
0.00038
0.00635
1
0.90100
0.52960
1
0.27482
0.42350
2002M10
0
0.07092
0.00889
0
0.00037
0.01404
1
0.80779
0.64099
1
0.26068
0.71141
2002M11
0
0.17240
0.01364
0
0.00221
0.01204
1
0.84032
0.64677
1
0.71349
0.46568
2002M12
0
0.00181
0.00870
0
0.01944
0.01623
1
0.91250
0.62627
1
0.41275
0.42273
2003M01
0
0.01123
0.00958
0
0.00528
0.01523
1
0.90754
0.56383
1
0.46566
0.52608
2003M02
0
0.00985
0.00431
0
0.00093
0.01425
1
0.84989
0.63091
1
0.89775
0.50774
2003M03
0
0.00042
0.01353
0
0.00164
0.01619
1
0.93448
0.71833
1
0.75762
0.70219
2003M04
0
0.03657
0.00613
0
0.00069
0.01123
1
0.93836
0.69069
1
0.17670
0.51687
2003M05
0
0.00000
0.00377
0
0.00272
0.01158
1
0.81736
0.69730
1
0.44465
0.33806
2003M06
0
0.00051
0.00400
0
0.02547
0.00884
1
0.88905
0.74456
1
0.30665
0.22194
2003M07
0
0.00000
0.00356
0
0.04817
0.01141
1
0.57945
0.66236
1
0.41510
0.14253
2003M08
0
0.00031
0.00497
0
0.00349
0.02033
0
0.21385
0.57932
1
0.33532
0.23791
2003M09
0
0.00001
0.00596
0
0.00282
0.01701
0
0.22572
0.46137
0
0.03813
0.17948
2003M10
0
0.00000
0.00156
0
0.00270
0.01263
0
0.19334
0.42379
0
0.01952
0.13844
2003M11
0
0.00000
0.00148
0
0.00679
0.01362
0
0.12325
0.39392
0
0.12181
0.14729
2003M12
0
0.00016
0.00097
0
0.00343
0.02376
0
0.25549
0.32588
0
0.01031
0.19321
2004M01
0
0.00000
0.00079
0
0.00047
0.01527
0
0.21118
0.11483
0
0.01327
0.06102
2004M02
0
0.00001
0.00022
0
0.00032
0.00850
0
0.18864
0.08159
0
0.02655
0.03726
2004M03
0
0.00000
0.00025
0
0.00050
0.00841
0
0.17144
0.10811
0
0.00947
0.02709
2004M04
0
0.00005
0.00058
0
0.00161
0.00796
0
0.09710
0.08142
0
0.00592
0.03817
2004M05
0
0.00000
0.00035
0
0.00564
0.01995
0
0.10238
0.27134
0
0.01321
0.08694
2004M06
0
0.00001
0.00085
0
0.00229
0.04052
0
0.07246
0.39929
0
0.00589
0.09210
2004M07
0
0.00001
0.00057
0
0.00369
0.01184
0
0.08724
0.14287
0
0.02609
0.10586
2004M08
0
0.00000
0.00049
0
0.00496
0.01693
0
0.07764
0.17653
0
0.04039
0.10142
2004M09
0
0.00255
0.00084
0
0.02294
0.01585
0
0.04958
0.14601
0
0.06013
0.16065
2004M10
0
0.00000
0.00077
0
0.01817
0.00765
0
0.19113
0.15020
0
0.02919
0.14576
2004M11
0
0.00005
0.00047
0
0.00169
0.00615
0
0.18365
0.28179
0
0.01337
0.11621
2004M12
0
0.00000
0.00061
0
0.00090
0.00405
0
0.06531
0.15940
0
0.01482
0.11800
2005M01
0
0.00000
0.00065
0
0.00120
0.00794
0
0.08697
0.24958
0
0.03336
0.09462
2005M02
0
0.00006
0.00103
0
0.00172
0.00832
0
0.07518
0.16851
0
0.02250
0.16834
2005M03
0
0.00000
0.00191
0
0.00302
0.00884
0
0.07975
0.13200
0
0.02177
0.16387
2005M04
0
0.00003
0.00375
0
0.00380
0.01529
0
0.10661
0.07169
0
0.02834
0.08276
2005M05
0
0.00091
0.00574
0
0.01258
0.02207
0
0.14977
0.09299
0
0.05372
0.19078
2005M06
0
0.00002
0.00796
0
0.00793
0.04945
0
0.15379
0.18861
0
0.14519
0.18984
2005M07
0
0.00246
0.01009
0
0.01280
0.02265
0
0.15517
0.18036
0
0.10051
0.18508
2005M08
0
0.00685
0.01285
0
0.00567
0.02502
0
0.03566
0.24767
0
0.10931
0.15950
2005M09
0
0.00138
0.01405
0
0.00246
0.02055
0
0.02838
0.17158
0
0.07531
0.11352
2005M10
0
0.02492
0.01370
0
0.00094
0.01741
0
0.02373
0.19176
0
0.12378
0.13687
2005M11
0
0.00377
0.02415
0
0.00310
0.03049
0
0.00682
0.13948
0
0.05139
0.21656
2005M12
0
0.01167
0.06171
0
0.00414
0.03452
0
0.00462
0.07796
0
0.07747
0.22014

Chart 21:  In-sample Fitted Values - United Kingdom

Data for Chart 21 follows Chart 24.

Chart 22:  In-sample Fitted Values - Mexico

Data for Chart 22 follows Chart 24.

Chart 23:  In-sample Fitted Values - Korea

Data for Chart 23 follows Chart 24.

Chart 24:  In-sample Fitted Values - Taiwan

Data for Chart 24 below.

Data for Charts 21 through 24

Country
U.K.
U.K.
U.K.
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Korea
Korea
Korea
Taiwan
Taiwan
Taiwan
Date
Actual
Predicted
Panel
Actual
Predicted
Panel
Actual
Predicted
Panel
Actual
Predicted
Panel
OBS
UKPT
UKPTF
cycuk
MXPT
MXPTF
cycmx
KOPTFO
KOPTF
cycko
TAPT
TAPTF
cycta
1972M01
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1972M02
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1972M03
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1972M04
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1972M05
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1972M06
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1972M07
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1972M08
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1972M09
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1972M10
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1972M11
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1972M12
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1973M01
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1973M02
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1973M03
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1973M04
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1973M05
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1973M06
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1973M07
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1973M08
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00000
-
1973M09
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00048
-
1973M10
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.01247
0.00223
1973M11
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00625
0.01290
1973M12
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00089
0.00138
1974M01
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.01803
0.00192
1974M02
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.07891
0.00197
1974M03
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.39536
0.00677
1974M04
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.90825
0.09368
1974M05
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.37643
0.03944
1974M06
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.99934
0.39259
1974M07
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.79479
0.63287
1974M08
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.44206
0.62632
1974M09
0
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.92934
0.65698
1974M10
1
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.80559
0.60915
1974M11
1
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.94352
0.74713
1974M12
1
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.70389
0.90566
1975M01
1
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
0.95609
0.90257
1975M02
1
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.12997
0.82148
1975M03
1
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00534
0.32631
1975M04
1
0.99998
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.12681
0.03869
1975M05
1
0.98481
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00111
0.00148
1975M06
1
0.97986
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00012
0.00004
1975M07
1
0.99923
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00002
0.00001
1975M08
1
0.21701
0.00505
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00034
0.00001
1975M09
0
0.03793
0.00433
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00203
0.00004
1975M10
0
0.00082
0.00020
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00161
0.00012
1975M11
0
0.00774
0.00109
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00895
0.00009
1975M12
0
0.00002
0.00016
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.05068
0.00496
1976M01
0
0.00000
0.00003
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00559
0.03213
1976M02
0
0.00000
0.00001
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00129
0.00595
1976M03
0
0.00000
0.00001
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.02599
0.00641
1976M04
0
0.00000
0.00007
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.00079
0.00107
1976M05
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.05863
0.00147
1976M06
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.08532
0.00124
1976M07
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.02967
0.00150
1976M08
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.24261
0.03927
1976M09
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.06221
0.05163
1976M10
0
0.00000
0.00001
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.11138
0.09791
1976M11
0
0.00000
0.00013
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
0.27514
0.18176
1976M12
0
0.00000
0.00001
-
-
-
0
0.09578
-
0
0.06265
0.09602
1977M01
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.36928
-
0
0.04378
0.02569
1977M02
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.01491
-
0
0.00549
0.00481
1977M03
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.09381
-
0
0.01447
0.00395
1977M04
0
0.00000
0.00004
-
-
-
0
0.07921
-
0
0.14216
0.00990
1977M05
0
0.00000
0.00001
-
-
-
0
0.03873
0.04903
0
0.04277
0.03146
1977M06
0
0.00000
0.00001
-
-
-
0
0.04512
0.11566
0
0.01110
0.01095
1977M07
0
0.00000
0.00007
-
-
-
0
0.11097
0.02014
0
0.10873
0.00304
1977M08
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.04783
0.02093
0
0.01200
0.01950
1977M09
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.01209
0.00258
0
0.00229
0.05203
1977M10
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.00455
0.00700
0
0.02255
0.21061
1977M11
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.02841
0.01060
0
0.01356
0.16470
1977M12
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.00876
0.00940
0
0.03343
0.00562
1978M01
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.01965
0.02146
0
0.00981
0.00022
1978M02
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.03199
0.01835
0
0.00389
0.00016
1978M03
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.05267
0.00804
0
0.00019
0.00028
1978M04
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.01085
0.02427
0
0.00758
0.00037
1978M05
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.05317
0.03018
0
0.13482
0.00036
1978M06
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.01964
0.01163
0
0.00296
0.00416
1978M07
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.00122
0.01689
0
0.06562
0.01040
1978M08
0
0.00000
0.00000
-
-
-
0
0.32203
0.00746
0
0.00130
0.00852
1978M09
0
0.00000
0.00001
-
-
-
0
0.14203
0.02039
0
0.02036
0.00261
1978M10
0
0.00000
0.00003
-
-
-
0
0.16121
0.14166
0
0.00012
0.00009
1978M11
0
0.00000
0.00007
-
-
-
0
0.21242
0.08492
0
0.01832
0.00003
1978M12
0
0.00002
0.00005
-
-
-
0
0.26939
0.10724
0
0.06483
0.00176
1979M01
0
0.00007
0.00044
-
-
-
0
0.22688
0.12631
0
0.10988
0.04180
1979M02
0
0.00000
0.00139
-
-
-
0
0.07232
0.11714
0
0.03694
0.13265
1979M03
0
0.00000
0.00012
-
-
-
0
0.08698
0.05166
0
0.08742
0.15698
1979M04
0
0.05984
0.00275
-
-
-
1
0.03152
0.05313
0
0.18265
0.50490
1979M05
0
0.00000
0.00107
-
-
-
1
0.18641
0.02157
0
0.01822
0.14838
1979M06
0
0.00000
0.00024
-
-
-
1
0.41425
0.10742
0
0.17470
0.06377
1979M07
1
0.38753
0.00148
-
-
-
1
0.47088
0.27183
0
0.18782
0.03201
1979M08
1
0.77434
0.00040
-
-
-
1
0.97457
0.27393
0
0.61475
0.00996
1979M09
1
0.67171
0.00446
-
-
-
1
0.77824
0.34359
0
0.09862
0.01101
1979M10
1
0.94607
0.04193
-
-
-
1
0.94986
0.32022
0
0.46500
0.01694
1979M11
1
0.32569
0.27674
-
-
-
1
0.75609
0.42382
0
0.08058
0.05307
1979M12
1
0.85594
0.60406
-
-
-
1
0.30653
0.20774
0
0.36243
0.03619
1980M01
1
0.99761
0.72715
-
-
-
1
0.34199
0.22944
0
0.25172
0.06135
1980M02
1
0.85605
0.53830
-
-
-
1
0.29056
0.49587
0
0.25827
0.01302
1980M03
1
0.95200
0.40484
-
-
-
1
0.49515
0.38379
0
0.30528
0.00781
1980M04
1
0.99937
0.68372
-
-
-
1
0.43112
0.72824
0
0.03336
0.01753
1980M05
1
1.00000
0.91377
-
-
-
1
0.78760
0.67799
0
0.14908
0.01013
1980M06
1
1.00000
0.96656
-
-
-
1
0.44334
0.57017
0
0.07469
0.03161
1980M07
1
1.00000
0.99660
-
-
-
1
0.83463
0.71817
0
0.00391
0.03776
1980M08
1
1.00000
0.99681
-
-
-
1
0.19575
0.52253
0
0.00798
0.01682
1980M09
1
1.00000
0.99132
-
-
-
1
0.00756
0.43588
0
0.00983
0.00811
1980M10
1
1.00000
0.99486
-
-
-
1
0.15678
0.36177
0
0.01391
0.00936
1980M11
1
1.00000
0.99797
0
0.08725
0.26338
0
0.01431
0.36009
0
0.03270
0.00666
1980M12
1
1.00000
0.99934
0
0.03207
0.19518
0
0.04141
0.39463
0
0.22331
0.02367
1981M01
1
1.00000
0.99971
0
0.00070
0.07339
0
0.01418
0.15467
0
0.09628
0.02740
1981M02
1
1.00000
0.99672
0
0.00060
0.05081
0
0.15785
0.06425
0
0.17924
0.01917
1981M03
1
1.00000
0.99214
0
0.00078
0.15016
0
0.00411
0.05036
0
0.03088
0.02944
1981M04
1
0.99846
0.96645
0
0.00683
0.27459
0
0.05859
0.03325
0
0.02123
0.04031
1981M05
1
0.99842
0.77793
0
0.01033
0.28886
0
0.01006
0.11648
0
0.21511
0.03087
1981M06
0
0.74030
0.65607
0
0.01904
0.27688
0
0.00042
0.01387
0
0.50055
0.01243
1981M07
0
0.06538
0.34516
0
0.02999
0.35144
0
0.03011
0.00622
0
0.08178
0.00921
1981M08
0
0.00036
0.29088
0
0.06578
0.39626
0
0.00034
0.00167
0
0.23284
0.01362
1981M09
0
0.00000
0.13454
0
0.17124
0.44111
0
0.00002
0.00285
0
0.20363
0.05335
1981M10
0
0.00000
0.19650
0
0.20654
0.51086
0
0.00693
0.03996
0
0.38254
0.09824
1981M11
0
0.00005
0.11609
0
0.20306
0.60137
0
0.00458
0.04595
0
0.25895
0.05767
1981M12
0
0.00000
0.08056
0
0.14974
0.52040
0
0.00289
0.09706
0
0.21954
0.09489
1982M01
0
0.00000
0.09615
0
0.27039
0.45645
0
0.00346
0.13467
0
0.06143
0.07927
1982M02
0
0.09849
0.07422
0
0.56935
0.55681
0
0.02906
0.20211
0
0.13944
0.29122
1982M03
0
0.05471
0.27112
0
0.75881
0.82201
0
0.04650
0.28805
0
0.00385
0.06887
1982M04
0
0.65393
0.29885
1
0.74953
0.93942
0
0.01024
0.29279
0
0.37779
0.71624
1982M05
0
0.03967
0.18332
1
0.99917
0.55875
0
0.03303
0.35635
0
0.00593
0.08054
1982M06
0
0.00642
0.14007
1
1.00000
0.92187
0
0.08699
0.30152
0
0.19493
0.04628
1982M07
0
0.00006
0.07324
1
1.00000
0.97818
0
0.00724
0.15713
0
0.36697
0.28812
1982M08
0
0.00048
0.04695
1
0.99907
0.96060
0
0.01604
0.04720
0
0.04175
0.20547
1982M09
0
0.01816
0.06721
1
0.99010
1.00000
0
0.00031
0.10512
0
0.00546
0.69300
1982M10
0
0.00207
0.05868
1
0.99117
0.94359
0
0.00494
0.08782
0
0.00166
0.28253
1982M11
0
0.00389
0.03648
1
1.00000
0.53986
0
0.00267
0.18788
0
0.00681
0.29864
1982M12
0
0.00042
0.05775
1
0.99995
0.92101
0
0.00016
0.04671
0
0.01699
0.05416
1983M01
0
0.00002
0.04275
1
0.96297
0.88773
0
0.00021
0.01975
0
0.01162
0.04394
1983M02
0
0.00008
0.05841
1
0.81576
0.90078
0
0.00002
0.01310
0
0.00612
0.09878
1983M03
0
0.00000
0.10656
1
0.80371
0.39795
0
0.00007
0.00756
0
0.00101
0.05998
1983M04
0
0.00000
0.04742
1
0.50966
0.26874
0
0.00004
0.02973
0
0.00119
0.02766
1983M05
0
0.00000
0.00912
1
0.99215
0.67174
0
0.00248
0.04652
0
0.00035
0.01219
1983M06
0
0.00000
0.01825
1
0.96580
0.73638
0
0.03426
0.09892
0
0.01900
0.00252
1983M07
0
0.00000
0.01317
1
0.73275
0.52171
0
0.00625
0.06681
0
0.00289
0.00122
1983M08
0
0.00000
0.00280
0
0.38348
0.16704
0
0.00082
0.01536
0
0.00014
0.00078
1983M09
0
0.00040
0.00862
0
0.28394
0.07528
0
0.00150
0.00564
0
0.00020
0.00084
1983M10
0
0.00003
0.00111
0
0.07480
0.00510
0
0.00614
0.01105
0
0.00059
0.00215
1983M11
0
0.00000
0.00250
0
0.11648
0.00507
0
0.00071
0.02037
0
0.00204
0.01413
1983M12
0
0.00000
0.00204
0
0.10027
0.00334
0
0.00493
0.02133
0
0.00295
0.01191
1984M01
0
0.00000
0.00104
0
0.07396
0.00356
0
0.00461
0.04841
0
0.01361
0.03273
1984M02
0
0.00000
0.00000
0
0.00210
0.00052
0
0.03618
0.04513
0
0.00966
0.03245
1984M03
0
0.00000
0.00000
0
0.00027
0.00006
0
0.03247
0.06167
0
0.01036
0.06681
1984M04
0
0.00000
0.00000
0
0.00461
0.00153
0
0.06148
0.02936
0
0.00501
0.01328
1984M05
0
0.00000
0.00001