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Currency Crashes in Industrial Countries: Much Ado About Nothing?

Joseph E. Gagnon*

NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Recent IFDPs are available on the Web at http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http://www.ssrn.com/.


Abstract:

Sharp exchange rate depreciations, or currency crashes, are associated with poor economic outcomes in industrial countries only when they are caused by inflationary macroeconomic policies. Moreover, the poor outcomes are attributable to inflationary policies in general and not the currency crashes in particular. On the other hand, crashes caused by rising unemployment or external deficits have always had good economic consequences with stable or falling inflation rates.

Keywords: Exchange rate, depreciation, inflation, unemployment, current account

JEL classification: F31, F32, F41



1.  Introduction and Summary

Many economic commentators appear to believe that currency crashes invariably have harmful effects.1 This paper shows that, for industrial countries, the evidence does not support this commonly held view.

Using quarterly data for 20 industrial countries since 1970, this paper identifies 19 episodes of sharp exchange rate depreciations or currency crashes. The episodes are categorized according to the causal factors that appear to have been important in each case. Three broad groupings of causal factors are identified: inflationary macroeconomic policies, large current account deficits or capital outflows, and rising unemployment rates. Often more than one of these factor groupings appeared to be present.

Crashes were followed by poor macroeconomic outcomes (slow GDP growth, rising bond yields, and falling equity prices) only when they resulted from inflationary macroeconomic policies. Moreover, currency crashes did not, by themselves, appear to contribute to these poor outcomes. Indeed, the evidence suggests that currency crashes tended to counteract the slowing of GDP growth that often occurs during and after inflationary periods. Ceteris paribus, currency crashes do contribute to inflationary pressure, but there are numerous episodes of crashes in which inflation remained constant or even declined in the quarters immediately after the crash, reflecting the effects of other economic forces.

Before 1986, crashes were almost always caused by inflationary macroeconomic policies (and inflationary policies typically led to declining external balances). A common theme among most of the inflationary episodes is the apparent underestimation of the natural rate of unemployment by policy makers. In the wake of these inflationary crashes, the behavior of GDP growth depended critically on monetary and fiscal policies. When authorities decided to fight inflation, recession typically ensued. When authorities did not fight inflation, the economy generally continued to grow.2 In most of the episodes driven by inflation, bond yields rose and real equity prices fell, regardless of the stance of macroeconomic policy.

Since 1985, crashes appear to have been caused by negative shocks to economic activity and/or financial market concerns about current account sustainability. Crashes in this period have been less frequent than in the years prior to 1986 and they have always been followed by periods of strong growth with little or no acceleration of inflation, stable or falling bond yields, and rising real equity prices.


2.  Previous Studies

An extensive literature seeks to explain financial crises or to identify early warning indicators of such crises, particularly in emerging markets. This literature encompasses banking crises, sovereign debt crises, and currency crises, where "currency crisis" may be defined to include periods of sharp depreciation as well as periods in which a central bank successfully defends a currency peg from a speculative attack. Good reviews of the early warning literature on currency crises are Edison (2003) and Berg, Borensztein, and Pattillo (2004). Three studies that focus on sharp depreciations, or "currency crashes," in emerging markets are Frankel and Rose (1996), Milesi-Ferretti and Razin (1998), and Kumar, Moorthy, and Perraudin (2003). These studies find that depletion of foreign exchange reserves is a robust predictor of currency crashes; other, less robust, predictors include rapid domestic credit growth, an overvalued exchange rate, weak GDP growth, and high industrial-country interest rates. Somewhat surprisingly, these studies do not find a consistent correlation between the level of foreign debt or the current account balance and subsequent currency crashes. Dooley and Frankel (2003) examine the consequences of currency crises in emerging markets. The papers in their volume highlight the importance of large foreign-currency debts and weak macroeconomic policy institutions in explaining the poor economic outcomes in these emerging-market episodes.

In an interesting study that bridges the gap between emerging markets and industrial countries, Osband and van Rijckeghem (2000) search for ranges of relevant macro and financial variables which historically have been associated with extremely low probabilities of a currency crisis in the following year. They find that high foreign exchange reserves, low foreign debt, and a higher (more positive) current account balance imply a very low probability of a currency crisis. After estimating these relationships on developing-country data, they apply them to industrial countries and show that they hold up well. Tudela (2004) applies indicator analysis to industrial countries and finds that import growth, fiscal deficits, non-FDI capital inflows, and an appreciated real exchange rate are all positively related to the probability of currency crisis in the following year. Wright and Gagnon (2006) find that current account deficits, high inflation rates, and weak GDP growth rates have predictive power for currency crashes in industrial countries.

Gagnon (2009) is the only extant study of the effects of currency crashes in industrial countries. Using a different dataset and crash definition than this paper, Gagnon found that currency crashes were followed by rising bond yields only when inflation was high and/or rising before the crash, and that no currency crash since 1985 was followed (or preceded) by rising bond yields. Crashes since 1985 also tended to be associated with rising real equity values. Croke, Kamin, and Leduc (2006), Debelle and Galati (2005), Algieri and Bracke (2007), and Freund and Warnock (2007) examine reversals of major current account deficits in industrial countries. There is some overlap between episodes of currency crashes and episodes of current account adjustment, with crashes tending to occur before adjustments. But many currency crashes are not followed by current account adjustments and many current account adjustments are not preceded by currency crashes. Three of these studies (Debelle and Galati is the exception) find that episodes with the largest currency depreciations are generally those with the most benign outcomes for GDP growth.


3.  Data Sources

This paper uses quarterly-average effective, or trade-weighted, nominal and real exchange rates available from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) based on a group of 26 relatively advanced economies. The effective exchange rates are available from 1964, but we start our analysis in 1970 because most of the other economic series we use are available only from 1970. The 20 countries we study are Australia (AL), Belgium (BE), Canada (CA), Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), France (FR), Germany (GE), Greece (GC), Ireland (IR), Italy (IT), Japan (JA), Netherlands (NL), New Zealand (NZ), Norway (NO), Portugal (PT), Spain (SP), Sweden (SD), Switzerland (SZ), the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US).3

Most of the other data used in this paper are from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Economic Outlook database. The primary exceptions are equity prices (from the OECD Main Economic Indicators database) and foreign exchange reserves and dollar exchange rates (from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) International Financial Statistics database). Where possible, gaps in the data were filled in using the IMF International Financial Statistics database.4Government balances for all countries are at an annual frequency.5 Inflation rates are based on GDP deflators.


4.  Identification of Crashes

A necessary condition for a crash in this paper is an exchange rate depreciation that exceeds 15 percent over four quarters.6 In some cases, the exchange rate continued to decline at a rate in excess of 15 percent for several quarters, but I group such closely connected periods of depreciation as single episodes.

In some of these 27 episodes, the sharp depreciation reflected a quick reversal of a previous sharp appreciation. In some other cases, the sharp depreciation was itself reversed soon afterwards. In order to focus on episodes that represent a sustained change in the economic environment, I apply two additional criteria to filter out transitory exchange rate fluctuations.

I believe that excluding most of these episodes is reasonable. In particular, contemporaneous economic reporting generally did not view these episodes as periods of currency crisis. Two potential exceptions are NZ1998 and SD1977, which were viewed as periods of currency crisis by some contemporaneous observers. Including these in our analysis would not have affected the results of this paper; the Swedish experience of 1977 fits in well with the inflationary crashes and the New Zealand experience in 1998 accords well with the crashes driven by rising unemployment.

A third criterion that some previous studies of developing countries have imposed (Frankel and Rose) is that the depreciation is not simply a gradual acceleration of a pre-existing downtrend. That criterion does not appear to be relevant for industrial countries. Requiring that the four-quarter exchange rate depreciation be at least 7.5 percentage points greater than that over the previous four quarters does not filter out any of these episodes.7 All of them represented substantial accelerations of the rate of depreciation.

Altogether then, this paper examines 19 episodes of sharp depreciations, or currency crashes: AL1985, FI1992, GC1980, GC1983, GC1985, IT1973, IT1976, IT1993, NZ1975, NZ1984, PT1977, PT1982, SD1983, SD1993, SP1977, SP1983, SP1993, UK1976, and US1986.8 Most of these episodes were viewed by some contemporaneous observers as periods of currency crisis. Figure 1 plots the four-quarter change in the nominal effective exchange rate for each country in our dataset, with the beginning of each crash episode marked by a vertical red line.9

As an aside, I note that applying the analogous criteria to sharp exchange rate appreciations would identify only 9 episodes of sharp and sustained appreciations: AL2003, GE1973, JA1977, JA1986, JA1993, JA1999, SZ1975, SZ1978, and UK1997. The relative rarity of sharp appreciations implies at least a modest degree of asymmetry between appreciations and depreciations.


5.  Causes of Crash Episodes

Variables identified by the empirical literature as related to currency crashes can be grouped into three broad categories relating to underlying factors.

Moreover, there are interconnections between these factors. In particular, expansionary macroeconomic policies can boost demand for imports and thus lower the current account balance. Also, a drop in foreign demand for a country's exports can create a current account deficit and rising unemployment.

High Inflation

Inflationary policies ultimately put upward pressure on all prices, including the price of foreign currency. A rise in the price of foreign currency is a depreciation of the exchange rate. Whether the exchange rate depreciation happens early or late in the inflationary process depends critically on a myriad of factors, such as wage and price controls, trade barriers, controls on international capital flows, and the exchange rate regime. Perhaps the most important factor is the exchange rate regime.

Pressures on External Accounts

As noted above, when the exchange rate is not freely floating, a widening current account deficit and diminishing foreign exchange reserves can be part of the process by which inflationary policies lead to currency crashes. However, other sources of change in the demand and supply of a country's imports and exports can also contribute to a widening current account deficit and diminishing reserves. These include, for example, trade policies, global commodity prices, business cycles in key trading partners, and investor perceptions of the investment climate. A currency crash occurs when investors suddenly decide to pull their capital out or to stop financing the current account imbalance.

Rising Unemployment

A third factor contributing to currency crashes is a negative shock to aggregate demand that slows economic activity and increases the rate of unemployment. In the face of a contractionary shock, central banks tend to ease monetary policy. In the case of fixed exchange rate regimes, the ease takes the form of a devaluation. In the case of floating exchange rate regimes, the ease takes the form of lower interest rates, which in turn push down the exchange value of the currency. If the source of the shock is reduced demand for a country's exports, the current account deficit may also contribute to the currency crash.

Historical Experience

Table 1 displays measures of these three factors around the onsets of currency crashes. The first column shows the difference between inflation in the country experiencing a currency crash and the average over all 20 countries, which is termed "excess inflation." Excess inflation is based on the average annual percent changes from four quarters before the start of the crash to four quarters after the start of the crash.10The value of 5.4 in the first row implies that the price level in Italy rose by nearly 11 percentage points more than the average across all industrial countries over the eight quarters surrounding the onset of the 1973 crash. The bottom rows show that the mean of excess inflation in crash episodes was 4.4 percent and the mean across all countries and time periods was 0 with a standard deviation of 3.3 percentage points. Numbers in bold are more than one standard deviation above or below the sample mean. In about half of the crash episodes, excess inflation was more than one standard deviation above the sample mean and it was never more than one standard deviation below the mean. This finding corroborates the view that currency crashes are often caused by inflationary policies. Despite the small negative value of excess inflation in Australia 1985, this episode is categorized as an inflationary one because the IMF attributed the crash in part to market unease about monetary conditions and because excess inflation increased markedly over the following two years.

The second column of Table 1 lists the current account balance in the quarter before the start of a crash as a percent of GDP. All but one entry are negative, and five are more than one standard deviation below the mean of -0.3 percent. The table does not plot foreign exchange reserves because the relationship between reserves and currency crashes holds only in the cases of fixed exchange rates.11

The third column of Table 1 shows the change in the unemployment rate over the eight quarters ending in the quarter before the onset of the crash. Six of the crash episodes were associated with a rise in unemployment that exceeded the mean by more than one standard deviation--indeed four episodes exceeded the mean by more than two standard deviations. Although Italian unemployment had changed little on balance over the eight quarters before the 1993 crash, the episode is associated with rising unemployment because unemployment turned up two quarters before the crash and continued to rise for some time afterwards; also GDP growth turned negative shortly before the crash.

The final three columns of Table 1 summarize the causal factors behind each currency crash. The letter "I" stands for excess inflation; "C" stands for the current account deficit; and "U" stands for the change in the unemployment rate. Capital letters are used when the associated factor exceeded its sample mean by more than one standard deviation. Lower-case letters are used when the factor was close to the one standard deviation threshold or when other evidence supports a role for the causal factor as discussed in the case studies below.

At least one factor is identified for every crash episode, and all but four episodes are associated with factors that exceeded the one standard deviation threshold.12 Prior to the mid-1980s, inflation was always an important causal factor. Rising unemployment seems to have become more important later in the sample.


6.  Consequences of Crash Episodes

Table 2 presents evidence on the consequences of currency crashes. The first three columns repeat the causal factors identified in Table 1 for convenience. The next column shows the change in the inflation rate from the eight-quarter period ending in the quarter before the crash to the eight-quarter period beginning with the start of the crash. Roughly half of the changes were positive and half were negative. As in Table 1, entries in bold differ from the sample mean by more than one standard deviation. The largest changes in inflation, both up and down, occurred in the episodes that were driven by inflationary pressures. When inflationary crashes were followed by tighter macroeconomic policies--as discussed in the case studies below--inflation often fell after the crash. Conversely, when crashes were not accompanied by tighter policies--and sometimes crashes were themselves a deliberate step to loosen policy--inflation typically rose after the crash.

The column labeled "Change in Net Exports" displays the change in net exports as a percent of GDP from the quarter before the crash to seven quarters after the crash started (eight quarters in total). This change was almost always positive; only for Greece in 1980 was it notably negative. Inflation in Greece around the 1980 crash was so high that the real exchange rate was reduced only briefly and quickly resumed its upward trend; thus the crash provided no impetus to net exports.

The next column shows the average growth rate of GDP over the eight quarters following the onset of the crash. The average growth rate after the onset of crashes was 1.7 percent, compared to an average of 2.6 percent across all countries and time periods. Growth was more than one standard deviation below the sample average in many episodes and only for New Zealand in 1984 did growth come close to exceeding the sample average by more than one standard deviation. All of the low growth episodes were associated with high values of excess inflation in Table 1.

The column labeled "Change in GDP Growth" shows the change between the growth rate over the eight quarters ending in the quarter before the crash and the growth rate over the eight quarters after the crash. In this column there are episodes that differed from the sample average by more than one standard deviation on both the upside and the downside. Decreases in the growth rate occurred only in episodes that had excess inflation as a causal factor. The largest increases in the growth rate occurred in the 1990s episodes that had unemployment, and not inflation, as causal factors.

The next column shows the change in the long-term government bond yield from the quarter before the crash to three quarters after the onset of the crash.13 Bond yields rose sharply in a number of episodes that were associated with high inflation. Bond yields dropped sharply in a number of episodes that were associated with rising unemployment and no excess inflation.

The final column shows the change in a broad equity index deflated by the GDP deflator from the quarter before the crash to three quarters after the onset of the crash. Falling equity prices tend to be associated with inflationary currency crashes and rising equity prices tend to be associated with non-inflationary currency crashes.

Relating Causes to Consequences

Table 3 presents results of regressions that relate the consequences of currency crashes to the causal factors behind crashes. In each column, one of the variables of Table 2 is regressed on the variables of Table 1.14 For GDP growth and the change in GDP growth, the value of GDP growth over the eight quarters ending in the quarter before the onset of the crash is added to the regression to control for cyclical dynamics that may not be related to crashes. The columns labeled "full" include all independent variables. The columns labeled "restricted" show the results of a sequential test-down procedure that successively eliminates the non-significant independent variables (except the constant).

For GDP growth after the onset of a currency crash, excess inflation during the crash is a significant explanatory factor. Each percentage point of excess inflation lowers GDP growth roughly one quarter of a percentage point. For the change in GDP growth after the onset of a currency crash, both excess inflation and the lagged change in unemployment are significant predictors. Excess inflation has a similar effect to that observed in the previous regressions, but now the change in unemployment is an even more important factor. Each percentage point rise in the unemployment rate before a crash implies a percentage point increase in the GDP growth rate after a crash begins. This finding likely results from policy easing in response to rising unemployment, which appears to be successful in stimulating growth.

For bond yields, the only causal factor that matters is excess inflation.  Higher excess inflation is associated with rising bond yields.  For real equity prices, all factors appear to matter.  The effect of excess inflation is highly significant and robust to the other variables; higher excess inflation is associated with falling real equity prices.  Current account deficits and rising unemployment are associated with rising real equity prices, but these effects are less significant and less robust to inclusion of the other variables than the inflation effect.

An important omitted factor in these regressions is the stance of macroeconomic policy. Quarterly data on fiscal deficits are not available for most of these countries in the 1970s and 1980s. Moreover, calculating cyclically adjusted deficits and the effective monetary stance are fraught with pitfalls given the uncertainty about potential output, the effects of price, wage, and capital controls, expectations about future inflation and future fiscal policies, and differences across countries in the relative importance of interest-rate versus exchange-rate channels for monetary policy. The real short-term interest rate (based on trailing four-quarter inflation) is not significant when added to any of the regressions in Table 3. However, the case studies below support the view that the subsequent stance of macroeconomic policy is critical in explaining the consequences of inflationary currency crashes for GDP growth. When governments shifted to fighting inflation, GDP growth typically suffered in the short run. When governments did not fight inflation, GDP growth was generally maintained over the near term. For non-inflationary currency crashes that were associated with rising unemployment, governments always eased macroeconomic policies and GDP growth always rebounded.

Inflation, GDP Growth, and Crashes

The preceding sections show that currency crashes are followed by weak or declining GDP growth only when they appeared to be caused by inflationary policies. A related question is whether crashes themselves retard GDP growth, or whether other aspects of inflationary periods tend to damp growth. To answer this question, consider the growth outcomes of the most inflationary episodes across all countries and years. There are 25 episodes in which four-quarter inflation in one of the 20 countries exceeded the average across all countries by more than two standard deviations (7.2 percentage points).15 The average GDP growth rate over the eight quarters after this inflationary threshold was breached was 2.2 percent, slightly lower than the sample average growth rate of 2.6 percent. Seven of these 25 episodes were associated with a currency crash.16 In the crash episodes, GDP growth averaged 2.9 percent. In the non-crash inflationary episodes, GDP growth averaged 2.0 percent. The difference between the crash and non-crash growth means is not statistically significant, but it does suggest that currency crashes may help to ameliorate some of the harmful after-effects of inflationary episodes.


7.  Case Studies

This section explores the historical record following each currency crash to bolster the conclusions reported above and to better understand the individual circumstances associated with currency crashes. The primary sources are IMF documents written shortly after each crash episode. "ART" stands for Staff Report for Article IV Consultation. "RED" stands for Recent Economic Developments.

A common theme among the inflationary episodes is that governments underestimated the natural rate of unemployment (sometimes called the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU). The rise of the NAIRU in the 1970s and early 1980s is discussed in Blanchard (2005, p.2) who describes it as a "tough learning experience, both for economists and for policy makers." Attempts by policy makers to stimulate economic activity and reduce unemployment spilled over into high and rising rates of inflation, which appears to have been the major causal factor behind a number of currency crashes.

Italy 1973Q3

Italian authorities appear to have underestimated the NAIRU in the early 1970s and their attempts to stimulate growth spilled over into high inflation. The OECD Economic Survey of Italy in January 1975 (p. 21) states that the primary goal of monetary policy in 1973 was to "maintain the growth of the economy." The real short-term interest rate was slightly negative in 1971 and 1972. (See Figure 5.) Soaring inflation in 1973 pushed the real short-term rate to -7 percent by the start of the crash, and it stayed around -5 percent for most of the next two years even as the authorities attempted to tighten monetary conditions by increasing the nominal rate. In 1974 the authorities also tightened monetary conditions through credit controls (OECD Survey, p. 23, and IMF RED August 1974, p. 48), but it is not clear how much effect these had. Fiscal policy appears to have been stimulative throughout the early 1970s as the deficit grew during the sluggish period of 1971-72 and remained constant in 1973-74 despite rapid economic growth. The lira was allowed to float in February 1973 and it depreciated in several steps over the next few months. The depreciation was driven by the easy stance of monetary policy and a general lack of confidence in Italian macroeconomic policies, especially as inflation ramped up in the first half of 1973. According to the IMF (RED August 1974, p. 47) "speculative activity helped ingrain expectations of further price inflation and exchange rate depreciation."

The net result of these policies was very strong growth of real GDP in 1973 and early 1974. Inflation, however, soared from 6 percent in 1972 to more than 20 percent in 1974. Bond yields rose about 4 percentage points in 1974. The real equity price index jumped shortly after the lire was floated, but then generally performed poorly.

Bottom line: Loose macroeconomic policy caused the crash and continued loose policy after the crash stimulated both growth and inflation.

New Zealand 1975Q4

The New Zealand economy was subject to extremely large terms-of-trade shocks in the early 1970s: first rising prices of farm exports in 1972-73 and then rising prices of oil imports in 1974. (See Figure 6.) Booming farm income led to unsustainably high GDP growth of over 8 percent in both 1973 and 1974. According to the IMF (RED April 1976, pp. 13, 21) monetary and fiscal policies were slightly restrictive in 1974. Nevertheless, the strong growth in economic activity sparked soaring inflation that hit with a lag in 1975, just as the economy fell into recession in response to the oil shock and the global slowdown.17 In response to the sagging economy, the government returned to expansionary macroeconomic policies in 1975, with rapidly growing public expenditures (IMF RED January 1978, p. 2) and a marked fall in short-term interest rates. The continuation of a large current account deficit led the government to devalue the New Zealand dollar 15 percent in August 1975.

The stimulus to net exports from the depreciation helped to spark a mild recovery in 1976, but the economy was probably operating above long-run capacity throughout the period; the unemployment rate remained below 1 percent through 1977. A tightening of wage and price controls in mid-1976 had only a temporary restraining effect on inflation. (IMF RED January 1978, p. 9) The government adopted tighter monetary and fiscal policies in 1976. (IMF RED January 1978, p. 27) Bond yields rose moderately after the crash. Real equity prices were roughly stable during and immediately after the crash.

Bottom line: The currency crash was caused by a combination of inflation and a negative terms-of-trade shock that widened the current account deficit. Real depreciation provided a temporary boost to the economy, but the beneficial effects were limited as the economy was probably already operating above its sustainable rate.

Italy 1976Q2

As one of the industrial countries that was most dependent on imported oil, Italy's terms of trade suffered acutely from the oil price shock of 1974 and the Italian economy entered a recession, along with much of the rest of the world, in late 1974. According to the OECD Economic Survey of Italy in January 1976 (p. 5), "the Italian authorities shifted their monetary and fiscal policy to a much more expansionary stance as from the beginning of 1975." These policies appear to have had the intended effect on output, albeit at the expense of renewed inflation. GDP resumed rapid growth in the third quarter of 1975. (See Figure 5.) Inflation, which decelerated through late 1975, popped back up in early 1976. The lira crash occurred simultaneously with the burst of inflation. GDP growth was very strong in all 4 quarters of 1976.

The authorities tightened macroeconomic policies immediately after the crash; the short-term interest rate soared from 11 percent to 18 percent. (OECD Economic Survey of Italy in March 1977, p. 25, and IMF RED April 1977, p. 2) Although the burst of inflation kept the real short-term interest rate somewhat below zero for a while, the increase from a more deeply negative value combined with tax increases and spending cuts appears to have brought growth to a brief halt in 1977 and allowed inflation to ease somewhat in 1977 and 1978. Export growth was robust in 1976, 1977, and 1978, and the current account moved up significantly. Bond yields rose initially, but then fell back with the slowdown in GDP growth in 1977. Real equity prices fell in the crash quarter and most of the subsequent quarters.

Bottom line: The currency crash was caused by inflationary pressure. The stimulus to GDP from the depreciation was later offset by tighter macro policies.

United Kingdom 1976Q2

Authorities in the United Kingdom appear to have underestimated the NAIRU in the 1970s. Their attempts to stimulate output and employment spilled over into the highest inflation rate among industrial countries in 1975. (See Figure 10.) According to the IMF (RED July 1977, p. 40) U.K. fiscal policy was "increasingly expansionary" through 1975 and initial plans for 1976 "provided for a mild additional stimulus." The central bank allowed real short-term interest rates to become deeply negative throughout 1975 and early 1976. The pound depreciated sharply in the first half of 1976. In response, the central bank raised interest rates modestly and a small fiscal tightening was announced in mid-1976. Financial markets generally were not impressed by these initial measures and the exchange rate depreciated sharply further in late 1976. The central bank responded by hiking real interest rates into positive territory and the government announced further fiscal tightening in conjunction with an IMF loan package in December 1976. (IMF RED July 1977, p. 44) The fiscal plans may have been based on optimistic assumptions about economic growth and tax revenues, however, because the final data show only a small improvement in the fiscal balance in 1977.

In early 1977, the exchange rate began to strengthen as markets regained confidence in U.K. macroeconomic policies. (IMF RED June 1978, p. 1) The central bank lowered interest rates significantly in 1977, and bond yields also declined. Exports grew relatively strongly in 1976 and 1977. Inflation backed off its peak levels, but remained in double digits. Real equity prices declined briefly around and after the crash, but then recovered within a year.

Bottom line: The crash was caused by inflationary macro policies. After the crash, policies were tightened enough to keep GDP from accelerating, but not enough to fully reverse the spike in inflation.

Portugal 1977Q1

Portuguese authorities appear to have underestimated the NAIRU in the 1970s. From 1971 through 1977 inflation was on a steep upward path that was only moderately interrupted by the recession of 1974-75. (See Figure 7.) The rapid recovery and rising inflation in 1976 caused a significant widening of the current account deficit. The authorities devalued the exchange rate 15 percent in February 1977, but this initial devaluation reversed only about half of the real appreciation caused by high inflation since 1973. As monetary policy remained expansionary (and fiscal policy was roughly neutral) inflation remained high and the external balance did not begin to improve. Portugal experienced a currency crisis in August 1977 that led to a new managed floating regime and further exchange rate depreciation through 1978. (IMF RED December 1978, p. 1)

Monetary policy was tightened significantly in late 1977 and early 1978. Real interest rates rose substantially (although they remained slightly negative) and quantitative credit restrictions were also tightened. Fiscal policy was roughly neutral in 1978. Exports grew strongly in 1978 and 1979. GDP growth was moderate and inflation remained high. Wage and price controls may have prevented inflation from increasing further. (IMF RED July 1984, pp. 8-9) Bond yields rose markedly in the quarters after the crash. Equity price data are not available.

Bottom line: The crash was caused by inflationary macro policies. After the crash, policies were tightened enough to offset the stimulus from net exports, but not enough to end high inflation.

Spain 1977Q3

Spanish authorities appear to have underestimated the NAIRU in the 1970s. From 1971 through 1977 inflation was on a steep upward path that was only moderately interrupted by the recession of 1974-75. (See Figure 8.) The rapid recovery and appreciating real exchange rate caused a widening of the current account deficit in 1976. The authorities devalued the exchange rate 20 percent in July 1977, reversing much of the real appreciation caused by high inflation since 1973.

Monetary policy was tightened somewhat in late 1977 and 1978, but interest rates were volatile as the central bank's policy focus was on the growth of the monetary aggregates rather than on interest rates. Fiscal policy was loosened in 1978 and then tightened in 1979. (IMF RED February 1980, pp. 1-2, 20, 34) Exports grew moderately in 1978 and 1979. GDP growth was weak and inflation moved down.

Bottom line: The crash was caused by inflationary macro policies. After the crash, policies were tightened to more than offset the stimulus from net exports and damp inflation.

United States 1978Q3

The dollar crisis of 1978 is not a crash by these criteria. The peak four-quarter change in the nominal effective exchange value of the dollar was -12 percent in the third quarter of 1978. Nevertheless, it may be interesting to examine the circumstances surrounding this episode.

After the recession of 1974-75, GDP grew strongly in 1976 and 1977. (See Figure 11.) The authorities appear to have underestimated the NAIRU and allowed inflation to drift upward in 1977 and 1978 from its 1976 trough. Financial markets were not impressed by the half-hearted steps to tighten policy in late 1977 and 1978, leading to downward pressure on the dollar.

Modest further macro tightening at the end of 1978 (as part of a multi-country support agreement for the dollar) succeeded in stabilizing the currency and caused growth to stagnate in the first half of 1979 despite a significant positive contribution from net exports. The tightening was not sufficient to prevent a continued upward trend in inflation. Indeed, the IMF argued in May 1979 (IMF ART May 1979, p. 16) that "inflation is the most pressing economic problem faced by the United States." Bond yields rose about 1 percentage point over the course of 1978. The dollar crisis had little apparent effect on real equity prices.

Bottom line: The dollar crisis was caused by inflationary macro policies. After the crisis, policies were tightened more than enough to offset the stimulus from net exports, but not enough to damp inflation.

Greece 1980Q2

Greek authorities appear to have underestimated the NAIRU in the late 1970s; the unemployment rate in 1978 and 1979 was probably far below its sustainable rate. (See Figure 4.) According to the IMF (IMF ART August 1980, pp. 1, 5, 7) monetary and fiscal policies were expansionary from 1975 through 1979. Inflationary pressures were already building when the 1979 oil price shock hit. In early 1980 the authorities stepped up the rate of managed depreciation of the exchange rate to stabilize the real exchange rate. The criteria for a currency crash were reached in the second quarter of 1980.

With the real exchange rate little changed, the crash had no significant effect on export growth. According to the IMF (IMF RED March 1983, p.2) Greek monetary and fiscal policies were "increasingly expansionary" through 1981. Nevertheless, it would probably have required a massive further acceleration of inflation to keep unemployment from rising and GDP from stagnating given how long the economy had operated above its sustainable rate. Real equity prices began a precipitous decline in 1980. According to the IMF (ART April 1985, p. 10b) there were no long-term domestic-currency government bonds in Greece in the early 1980s.

Bottom line: The crash was a deliberate government policy to offset high inflation and maintain a stable real exchange rate. With no real exchange rate depreciation there was no net stimulus to aggregate demand. GDP stagnated despite loose macroeconomic policies and inflation continued to rise.

Portugal 1982Q3

The Portuguese authorities appear to have continued to underestimate the NAIRU in the early 1980s. As economic growth slowed in 1980, the authorities instituted expansionary monetary and fiscal policies that continued until the middle of 1983 according to the IMF. (IMF RED July 1984, p. 1) These provided only a modest temporary boost to GDP growth and inflation stepped up substantially. (See Figure 7.) The managed crawl of the exchange rate was not fast enough to offset the higher inflation in Portugal and the real exchange rate appreciated in 1981 and early 1982, contributing to a sustained large current account deficit.18 In June 1982 the authorities enacted a discrete devaluation, but other macro policies were largely unaffected.

The depreciation helped to boost exports, but output stagnated amidst ongoing high inflation. The current account deficit narrowed but remained large and capital flight accelerated, reflecting a lack of anti-inflationary credibility. In June 1983, in conjunction with an IMF adjustment package, the authorities devalued the exchange rate a further 12 percent and continued the downward crawl. This time, however, monetary and fiscal policies were tightened. (IMF RED July 1984, p. 1) Exports continued to grow strongly, but GDP contracted in late 1983 and early 1984 as tight macroeconomic policies reduced domestic demand. Inflation declined only slightly in 1984 and 1985, as the downward pressure from economic slack was offset by a series of administered increases of government-controlled prices that were part of the fiscal tightening and possibly some pent-up price increases left over from the period of wage and price controls. (IMF RED 1984 p. 9) In 1986, inflation dropped sharply.

Bottom line: The currency crash was deliberate government policy. Exports were strongly stimulated. Macroeconomic policy was initially loose, but then tightened to fight inflation. It took a deep recession and a long lag to get inflation down.

Spain 1983Q1

The Spanish authorities tolerated slow growth in 1979 and 1980 to fight inflation, but when growth collapsed again in 1981, they switched to a focus on boosting growth and employment. (IMF RED July 27, 1984, p. 1) Inflation stepped up temporarily in 1981 in part as food prices rose after a bad harvest. (See Figure 8.) GDP growth recovered moderately in 1982. The managed crawl of the exchange rate barely managed to offset the higher inflation in Spain, leaving the real exchange rate higher than it had been for most of the previous decade and allowing the current account to remain in a moderate deficit. In December 1982 the authorities enacted a discrete devaluation of 8 percent; the peseta was allowed to depreciate further under market pressure in early 1983.

The depreciation boosted exports noticeably, but output was kept on a moderate growth path by a sharp tightening of monetary policy. Fiscal policy was roughly neutral in 1983 and 1984. (IMF RED July 1984, pp. 36-42) Inflation resumed its downward trajectory.

Bottom line: The crash reflected a deliberate government policy to unwind the cumulative real appreciation associated with higher inflation in Spain than in its trading partners. Exports were strongly stimulated. Macroeconomic policy tightened to fight inflation.

Greece 1983Q1

Ongoing high Greek inflation, at more than 20 percent per year, pushed up the real exchange rate in 1982 and exacerbated the economic slump that began in 1981. (See Figure 4.) To fight inflation, the authorities tightened fiscal policy, and the public sector deficit declined slightly between 1981 and 1983, despite stagnant GDP. At the time, fiscal policy was viewed as very tight. (IMF ART April 1985, p. 2) Monetary policy remained loose, however, with negative real interest rates. To offset the loss of competitiveness from high inflation, the authorities devalued the currency 16 percent in January 1983.

As the decline in the real exchange rate was rather modest, exports benefited only a little. Inflation remained high and the economy grew slowly. Real equity prices continued their steep decline.

Bottom line: The crash was a policy move designed to offset a real appreciation caused by high domestic inflation. Economic effects were minor.

Sweden 1983Q1

In the early 1980s, Sweden experienced several years of slow GDP growth, rising unemployment, and a large current account deficit. (See Figure 9.) Inflation was moderately high. Sweden had pegged its exchange rate to a basket of currencies. On the advice of the IMF, Sweden devalued its currency by 10 percent in late 1981.19 In October 1982, a newly elected social democratic government devalued the krona by a further 16 percent. The devaluation first met the crash criteria in 1983Q1.

In the two years following the devaluation, exports grew strongly, GDP growth picked up, inflation remained roughly unchanged, and the current account deficit narrowed. According to the IMF, the government took advantage of the stimulus from the devaluation to slash its budget deficit (IMF ART July 1984, p. 15) and the fiscal balance rose from -6.5 percent in 1982 to -3 percent in 1984. The central bank maintained real interest rates in positive territory and increased them further in late 1984 when inflation did not decline as much as targeted.20 Bond yields fell modestly during and after the crash. Real equity prices jumped up with and immediately after the crash.

Bottom line: The crash was a policy move to stimulate the weak economy and narrow the current account deficit. It had the intended effect of boosting net exports and GDP with little effect on inflation.

New Zealand 1984Q3

In the 1980s New Zealand experienced stop-go macro policies that alternated between fighting inflation and spurring growth. Interest rates were raised in 1981-82 to fight inflation. (See Figure 6.) Inflation gradually fell in 1982-83, but GDP growth was lackluster and unemployment rose to a post-war high. The central bank cut interest rates in 1983, in response to rising unemployment. However, policymakers appear to have underestimated the NAIRU and inflation began to rise steeply in 1984. The current account deficit widened on average in 1983 and 1984.

In July 1984, a new government took office with a radical strategy to deregulate the economy and to fight inflation through tight monetary policy and fiscal consolidation. One of the first policy steps, however, was to devalue the currency 20 percent in July 1984 in order to narrow the current account deficit. The currency was floated in March 1985. According to the IMF, the budget deficit was reduced from 9 percent of GDP in fiscal year 1983/84 to 4 percent in fiscal year 1985/86. (IMF RED June 1986, p. 3) The central bank raised interest rates sharply in late 1984 and 1985.

The jump in inflation coincided with the currency crash in mid-1984, and the crash undoubtedly contributed to inflation, but the previous loose macroeconomic policies had almost surely guaranteed a substantial rise in inflation in any event. GDP stagnated in 1985 and 1986 as the new government's tight macro policies reduced domestic demand. Nonagricultural exports grew strongly, but agricultural exports were damped by falling world prices, reflecting farm subsidies in major trading partners. (IMF RED June 1986, pp. 69-70) Inflation remained stubbornly high owing to "adjustments following the end of the wage-price freeze ... which had been imposed in June 1982 and terminated in February 1984" according to the IMF. (IMF RED June 1986, p. 13) Further price pressures in 1985 owed to increases in public-sector prices and indirect taxes that were part of the fiscal contraction. Bond yields soared with the crash and the rise in inflation. Real equity prices fell slightly with the crash but then stabilized and even began to increase sharply in 1986, most likely on optimism about the government's ongoing economic reforms.

Bottom line: The crash reflected a deliberate policy to reduce the large current account deficit that resulted from deteriorating terms of trade and inflationary macroeconomic policies. Despite a moderate stimulus to exports, tight macroeconomic policies after the crash held down GDP growth and eventually succeeded in taming inflation.

Australia 1985Q2

According to the IMF, the primary causes of the currency crash of 1985 were market concerns about the large and growing current account deficit and "uncertainties about monetary conditions," which likely reflects a lack of anti-inflationary credibility. (RED February 1986, p. 2)

After a deep recession in 1982-83, four-quarter inflation declined to a low of 4 percent by the end of 1984 even as the Australian economy began to experience a strong recovery. (See Figure 2.) The recovery was spurred in part by a rapid widening of the fiscal deficit, which may have raised concerns about future inflation, despite a fairly tight monetary policy. The rapid recovery in 1984 also contributed to a widening current account deficit. The combination of inflation fears and a growing current account deficit sparked a sharp depreciation in early 1985. Over the remainder of 1985 and 1986, Australia experienced a substantial drop in the world prices of its main export commodities, which damped the stimulative effect of the crash on net exports. (IMF ART February 1987, p. 6) GDP growth was moderate in 1985 and 1986, but the rapid growth of 1984 probably put Australian output above potential, and inflation steadily increased. Monetary and fiscal policies were fairly tight in 1985 and 1986, but some of this restraint was offset by significant further currency depreciation in 1986, and policies in the end were not tight enough to stabilize inflation. Nevertheless, bond yields rose only modestly and real equity prices moved up strongly.

Bottom line: A combination of inflationary policies and a large current account deficit appear to have caused the crash. The crash had a subdued effect on net exports because of commodity price decline. Macroeconomic policies were not sufficiently tight after the crash, given that output was probably above potential, and inflation gradually intensified.

Greece 1985Q4

According to the IMF, Greek macroeconomic policies eased in early 1985 ahead of parliamentary elections. Inflation was already high and the current account deeply in deficit. By late 1985 the results were not surprising: "Faced with a marked widening of the current account deficit ... an acceleration of inflation ... and a widening fiscal deficit ... the authorities announced a comprehensive economic stabilization program in October 1985" which included a 15 percent currency devaluation. (IMF RED August 1987, p. 1) The package included significantly tighter fiscal policy, some liberalization and de-indexation of the labor market (p. 9), and a temporary tax on imports (p. 104).

The depreciation boosted net exports and the current account deficit narrowed dramatically from about 7 percent of GDP in 1985 to less than 4 percent of GDP in 1986.21 (See Figure 4.) GDP stagnated in 1986 and 1987 under the influence of the stabilization program. Inflation declined somewhat but remained high, partly reflecting indirect tax increases.22 Real equity prices rose strongly in the quarters after the crash as confidence in the government's adjustment program increased.

Bottom line: The crash was a deliberate policy to reduce the current account deficit. The authorities tightened other policies to help reduce inflation and growth was lackluster.

United States 1986Q3

The U.S. economy grew at a moderate pace in 1985 and 1986 and inflation was well under control. (See Figure 11.) However, tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy had engendered a sustained appreciation of the dollar from late 1980 through early 1985. The last year or so of this appreciation probably reflected a dollar bubble.23 As the U.S. current account headed for a post-war record deficit, the sustainability of the strong dollar came into doubt. The dollar peaked in February 1985 and began to depreciate almost continuously thereafter. The Plaza Agreement of September 1985 may have helped to hasten the decline through joint foreign exchange intervention against the dollar by G-7 countries. The depreciation lasted about three years with few pauses from early 1985 through early 1988. The crash criteria were reached in 1986Q3.

The depreciation provided a strong and lasting boost to exports. By 1988, the current account deficit began to shrink. Inflation rose modestly after the crash but remained below 4 percent. Output continued to grow robustly. Bond yields fell more than 4 percentage points from the dollar's peak in early 1985 through early 1987, before backing up modestly in late 1987. Real equity prices rose with and immediately after the crash.24

Bottom line: Market fears about current account sustainability and coordinated official exchange rate intervention helped to cause the crash. The crash boosted net exports. Both growth and inflation were steady.

Finland 1992Q4

Finland began a serious recession in 1990, owing to monetary tightening to fight inflation, the collapse of exports to the Soviet Union, the bursting of the late 1980s asset bubble, and a banking crisis. (IMF RED July 1993, pp. 1-2) Markets doubted the credibility of the central bank's exchange rate peg in the face of the weak economy and the central bank was forced to raise interest rates and deplete its foreign exchange reserves to defend the peg. (See Figure 3.) The currency was devalued in November 1991 and floated (with a large depreciation) in September 1992. Monetary policy, which had been tight while defending the currency peg, loosened markedly in late 1992.

The economy began to recover in the second half of 1993. Inflation declined during the recession years and stayed generally low, but volatile, during the recovery. Exports made a very large contribution to recovery in 1993 and 1994. Bond yields fell sharply after the crash and real equity prices rose strongly.

Bottom line: The crash was caused by market concerns about an overvalued exchange rate in the face of a major recession. The combination of the crash and an easing of monetary policy spurred strong growth after a modest lag. Inflation remained low.

Italy 1993Q1

The Maastricht treaty of 1992 focused market attention on the convergence criteria for joining the European Economic and Monetary Union by the end of the decade. Inflation and fiscal deficits in Italy were well in excess of the limits specified by Maastricht, but the Italian government had held the exchange rate steady against the Deutschemark for several years. With inflation above that of its trading partners, Italy's real effective exchange rate had marched upward throughout the previous decade, restraining real net exports. (See Figure 5.)

Meanwhile, the unification of Germany in 1990 created a boom in German domestic demand that led the Bundesbank to tighten monetary policy gradually but significantly. In part because of the strong real exchange value of the lira, Italian exporters benefited relatively little from the German boom, while the rest of the Italian economy suffered from the high interest rates that were required to defend the exchange rate peg.25 As the Italian economy slumped, financial markets increasingly doubted the government's resolve to maintain the exchange rate parity. Speculative attacks forced the exit of the lira from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in September 1992. The criteria for a currency crash were reached in the first quarter of 1993.

Policy interest rates were eased substantially in 1993, but the economy continued to contract for most of the year, particularly as the government felt unable to use countercyclical fiscal stimulus in light of the already excessive budget deficit.26 Exports did expand strongly in 1993 and 1994, providing a significant backstop to the weak economy. Inflation declined during 1992 and held steady in 1993 and 1994. Bond yields fell, and real equity prices moved up, with and immediately after the crash.

Bottom line: The crash was caused by market concerns about an overvalued exchange rate in the face of a major recession. The combination of the crash and an easing of monetary policy spurred strong growth after a modest lag. Inflation remained low.

Sweden 1993Q1

Sweden's economy overheated in the late 1980s, the aftermath of financial liberalization that sparked a real estate boom. (IMF RED August 1993, p.1) The bust hit in 1990 and it intensified in 1991 and 1992 as a banking crisis emerged and the global economy slowed down. Markets doubted the credibility of the central bank's exchange rate target in the face of prolonged economic weakness. After raising interest rates sharply in mid-1992 to defend the krona, the central bank decided to let the krona float in November. (See Figure 9.) The criteria for a currency crash were reached in 1993Q1.

Both monetary and fiscal policies loosened markedly in 1993.27 GDP growth turned positive in 1993Q2 with a large boost from net exports. Inflation, which had dropped sharply in 1992, rebounded only partially in 1993 and remained moderate in 1994. Bond yields fell and real equity prices rose strongly in 1993.

Bottom line: The crash was caused by market concerns about an overvalued exchange rate in the face of a recession. The combination of the crash and an easing of monetary and fiscal policies spurred strong growth after a brief lag. Inflation remained low.

Spain 1993Q3

Inflation in Spain was well in excess of that in Germany and France for most of the 1980s. The Spanish government's policy of holding the exchange rate steady against the Deutschemark meant that Spain's real effective exchange rate had marched upward for many years, restraining real net exports. (See Figure 8.)

Meanwhile, the unification of Germany in 1990 created a boom in German domestic demand that led the Bundesbank to tighten monetary policy gradually but significantly. In part because of the strong real exchange value of the peseta, Spanish exporters benefited relatively little from the German boom, while the rest of the Spanish economy suffered from the high interest rates that were required to defend the exchange rate peg. As the Spanish economy slumped, financial markets increasingly doubted the government's resolve to maintain the exchange rate parity. Speculative attacks forced a series of devaluations of the peseta within the European ERM in September 1992, November 1992, and May 1993. The criteria for a currency crash were reached in the third quarter of 1993.

In August 1993 the ERM bands were widened, which "increased the freedom to adapt monetary policy to the circumstances of the domestic economy." (IMF RED January 1994, p. 25) Policy interest rates were eased substantially in 1993, and fiscal policy also was eased. Exports expanded strongly in late 1993 and 1994. GDP began to recover in 1993Q4. Inflation declined during 1992 and held steady in 1993 and 1994. Bond yields fell, and real equity prices moved up, with and immediately after the crash.

Bottom line: The crash was caused by market concerns about an overvalued exchange rate in the face of a recession. The combination of the crash and an easing of monetary and fiscal policies spurred strong growth after a brief lag. Inflation remained low.


8.  Conclusions

Currency crashes in industrial countries have always been associated with at least one of the following causal factors:

The consequences of currency crashes depend critically on the causes. Poor outcomes have occurred only after inflationary currency crashes. The responses of macroeconomic policymakers after inflationary currency crashes had important implications for GDP growth. Tighter policies to fight inflation generally reduced GDP in the short run. When authorities did not fight inflation, GDP growth generally held up in the near term. Bond yields usually rose and real equity prices usually fell during and immediately after inflationary currency crashes.

Non-inflationary currency crashes uniformly had good outcomes: GDP growth was average to above average, bond yields fell, and real equity prices rose.


References

Adams, G., Alexander, L., Gagnon, J., 1993. German Unification and the European Monetary System: A Quantitative Analysis. Journal of Policy Modeling 15, 353-92.

Berg, A., Borensztein, E., Pattillo, C., 2004. Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? IMF Working Paper no. 04/52, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

Blanchard, O., 2005. European Unemployment: The Evolution of Facts and Ideas. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 11750, Cambridge, MA.

Boughton, J., 2001. Silent Revolution: The International Monetary Fund 1979-1989. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

Croke, H., Kamin, S., Leduc, S., 2006. An Assessment of the Disorderly Adjustment Hypothesis for Industrial Economies. International Finance 9, 37-61.

Debelle, G., Galati, G., 2005. Current Account Adjustment and Capital Flows. BIS Working Papers no. 169, Bank for International Settlements, Basel.

Dooley, M., Frankel, J., (eds.) 2003. Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

Edison, H., 2003. Do Indicators of Financial Crises Work? An Evaluation of an Early Warning System. International Journal of Finance and Economics 8, 11-53.

The Financial Times, 2008. The Dollar Danger Is Not Over Yet. Editorial on May 8.

Frankel, J., Rose, A., 1996. Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment. Journal of International Economics 41, 351-66.

Freund, C., Warnock, F., 2007. Current Account Deficits in Industrial Countries: The Bigger They Are, the Harder They Fall? in Clarida (ed.) G7 Current Account Imbalances, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

Gagnon, J., 2009. Currency Crashes and Bond Yields in Industrial Countries. Journal of International Money and Finance 28, 161-81.

Gagnon, J., Masson, P., McKibbin, W., 1996. German Unification: What Have We Learned from Multi-Country Models? Economic Modelling 13, 467-98.

Kumar, M., Moorthy, U., Perraudin, W., 2003. Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes. Journal of Empirical Finance 10, 427-54.

Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., Razin, A., 1998. Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 6620, Cambridge, MA.

Osband, K., van Rijckeghem, C., 2000. Safety from Currency Crashes. IMF Staff Papers 47, 238-58.

Tudela, M., 2004., Explaining Currency Crises: A Duration Model Approach. Journal of International Money and Finance 23, 799-816.

Volcker, P. 2005., An Economy on Thin Ice. The Washington Post April 10, B7.

The Wall Street Journal, 2008. The Buck Stops Where? March 17, A16.

Wright, J., Gagnon, J., 2006. Predicting Sharp Depreciations in Industrial Country Exchange Rates. International Finance Discussion Papers no. 881, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC.


Table 1.  Evidence of Causes of Currency Crashes

EpisodeExcess InflationCurrent AccountChange in Unemp.Factors Present: Inflation $ ^{1}$Factors Present: Current Account Factors Present: Unemployment
Italy 1973Q35.4-2.01.5Icu
New Zealand 1975Q43.3-7.30.2IC 
Italy 1976Q26.2-1.10.6I  
United Kingdom 1976Q23.20.51.7i u
Portugal 1977Q111.8-7.94.6ICU
Spain 1977Q310.3-3.61.5Icu
Greece 1980Q27.6-3.50.9Ic 
Portugal 1982Q311.8-12.6-0.5IC 
Spain 1983Q1$ ^{2}$3.3-2.53.5I U
Greece 1983Q111.8-3.13.0IcU
Sweden 1983Q10.0-4.91.4 cu
New Zealand 1984Q33.8-7.61.2ICu
Australia 1985Q2-1.0-4.2-1.0ic 
Greece 1985Q411.5-7.70.0IC 
United States 1986Q3-2.8-3.2-0.3 c 
Finland 1992Q4-2.8-4.18.9 cU
Italy 1993Q10.5-2.10.1  u
Sweden 1993Q1-0.6-1.95.1  U
Spain 1993Q31.1-1.24.9  U
Crash Mean4.4-4.22.0   
Sample Mean0.0-0.30.2   
Sample Standard Deviation3.34.71.7   

Note: Excess inflation equals the annual inflation rate over the eight quarters centered on the start of the crash minus the average inflation rate in all 20 countries over the same period. Current account is in percent of GDP for the quarter before the start of the crash. Change in unemployment rate is measured over eight quarters ending in the quarter before the start of the crash. Bold entries differ from sample means by more than one standard deviation. Sample means and standard deviations are based on the entire sample period and all 20 countries.

1. I - inflation; C - current account; U - unemployment. Column lists factors that exceeded mean by more than one standard deviation in hypothesized direction. Factors in lower case were either close to the one standard deviation criterion or were supported by considerations discussed in the text.

2. For Spain in 1983, the current account is the average over the four quarters of 1982 because there were swings of more than 20 percentage points from quarter to quarter that year.

Table 2.  Evidence on Consequences of Currency Crashes

EpisodeCausal FactorsChange in InflationChange in Net ExportsGDP GrowthChange in GDP GrowthChange in Bond YieldChange in Real Equity Price
Italy 1973Q3I c u7.52.20.9-3.52.1-18
New Zealand 1975Q4I C10.4-0.1-1.3-8.32.12
Italy 1976Q2I-0.13.13.52.74.8-42
United Kingdom 1976Q2i u-8.8-0.13.11.50.8-9
Portugal 1977Q1I C U3.81.63.80.65.8.
Spain 1977Q3I c u-0.91.00.7-2.41.9-46
Greece 1980Q2I c6.2-1.6-2.6-5.9.-34
Portugal 1982Q3I C5.16.2-1.3-3.23.6.
Spain 1983Q1I U-2.92.02.01.31.78
Greece 1983Q1I c U-2.20.30.31.2.-52
Sweden 1983Q1c u0.82.03.72.1-1.051
New Zealand 1984Q3I C u7.42.14.60.38.7-4
Australia 1985Q2i c1.02.12.7-3.00.426
Greece 1985Q4I C-4.01.0-1.5-4.72.431
United States 1986Q3c0.61.13.60.00.715
Finland 1992Q4c U0.44.02.07.6-4.774
Italy 1993Q1u-1.53.32.31.3-4.826
Sweden 1993Q1U-1.62.83.96.1-3.154
Spain 1993Q3U-1.41.02.32.6-1.521
Crash Mean 1.01.81.7-0.21.26
Sample Mean -0.40.12.6-0.3-0.13
Sample Std. Dev. 3.02.12.02.61.424

Note: Change in inflation is the difference between the annual inflation rate over the eight quarters after the start of the crash and the annual inflation rate over the eight quarters ending the quarter before the start of the crash. Change in net exports is the difference between net exports as a percent of real GDP seven quarters after the start of the crash and net exports in the quarter before the start of the crash. GDP growth is the annual rate for the eight quarters after the start of the crash. Change in GDP growth is the difference between the annual rate of GDP growth in the eight quarters after the start of the crash and GDP growth in the eight quarters ending in the quarter before the crash. Change in bond yield and change in real equity price are measured from the quarter before the start of the crash to the third quarter after the start of the crash. The real equity price is calculated using the GDP deflator. Sample means and standard deviations are based on the entire sample period and all 20 countries.

Table 3.  Relating Causes to Consequences

  GDP Growth: Full GDP Growth: Restricted Change in GDP Growth: Full Change in GDP Growth: Restricted Change in Bond Yield: Full Change in Bond Yield: Restricted Change in Real Equity Price: Full Change in Real Equity Price: Restricted
Constant
1.91*
2.69***
0.18
-1.12
-0.30
-0.54
-3.4
26.4***
Constant - Standard Errors
(1.04)
(.58)
(1.50)
(1.03)
(1.42)
(.88)
(12.7)
(8.1)
Lagged GDP Growth
0.30
-0.23
Lagged GDP Growth - Standard Errors
(.21)
(.30)
Excess Inflation
-0.22**
-0.22**
-0.16
-0.24*
0.36*
0.45***
-5.6***
-5.7***
Excess Inflation - Standard Errors
(.10)
(.09)
(.15)
(.13)
(.17)
(.14)
(1.2)
(1.4)
Current Account
0.08
0.22
-0.16
-5.9**
Current Account - Standard Errors
(.16)
(.23)
(.26)
(2.5)
Change in Unemp.
0.32 (0.23)
0.83**
1.03***
-0.29
4.5*
Change in Unemp. - Standard Errors
(.23)
(.33)
(.26)
(.29)
(2.3)
R$ ^{2}$
.40
.27
.64
.60
.46
.40
.70
.53
No. Obs.
19
19
19
19
17
17
17
17

Note: This table presents OLS regressions of consequences, as defined in Table 2, on causes, as defined in Table 1. To control for potential dynamics, GDP growth over the eight quarters ending with the start of the crash are initially included in the regressions of GDP growth and the change in GDP growth after the onset of the crash. Restricted regressions reflect the outcome of sequentially testing down and eliminating variables that are not significant at the 10 percent level; for the change in real equity price, all variables are significant at the 10 percent level, so the restricted regression applies a 5 percent criterion. In the equity price regression, the current account is not significant at the 5 percent level when the unemployment rate is dropped. *, **, and *** denote significance at the 10, 5, and 1 percent levels, respectively. Values in parentheses represent standard errors.

Figure 1.  Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (4-Quarter Percent Change)

Data for Figure 1 immediately follows

Data for Figure 1

TIME ALBECADKFIFRGEGCIRITJPNLNZNOPTSPSDSZUKUS
1971q1 0.29027-0.629456.174667-0.35034-0.52117-0.051611.007974-0.65809-0.080360.422904-0.12550.50964-0.25391-0.39314-0.65406-0.23286-0.2277-0.4373-0.12684-1.26729
1971q2 0.401372-1.0064.617631-0.69106-0.81155-0.869111.371728-0.92796-0.066530.0501290.163490.693048-0.40997-0.31843-0.63781-0.62711-0.111592.476597-0.12926-1.12707
1971q3 1.292256-0.540550.393431-1.13163-1.71006-2.421474.565161-2.546650.094983-1.132892.4004640.721888-0.37805-0.0347-0.60603-1.95316-0.792424.2920750.024021-1.04061
1971q4 1.0470242.0524830.339251-1.13134-3.93314-4.606115.649728-5.162530.163522-2.749857.8312882.7474150.6264530.109805-0.2874-2.56186-0.544364.087710.032023-4.11204
1972q1 -0.50113.044644-1.96901-1.52029-6.93645-0.372945.427493-8.91439-0.18368-2.7517412.375123.051007-0.181-0.76761-3.72679-2.30588-0.424812.260076-0.68253-7.08603
1972q2 -0.829713.340756-0.08446-1.08235-6.798641.4614283.901744-8.88374-0.34389-1.8351413.310722.093052-0.302330.055072-3.41705-0.702410.332492-0.15091-0.78914-7.56777
1972q3 -0.86463.6285261.0388380.470046-5.509143.6936190.81643-6.96765-4.49498-0.4455212.354251.910839-0.226990.780653-2.256572.5216061.9656630.073965-6.43851-6.9249
1972q4 0.2095671.3793350.3381141.889364-3.216315.737319-0.09781-3.54771-6.642130.8171917.024558-0.20077-0.892020.406394-2.015733.9689021.9612361.200971-9.37364-3.23966
1973q1 8.8637531.287482-0.711793.523834-0.829172.9479062.481671-4.00799-8.26404-2.85787.0367821.0457641.8767062.945030.2296183.9033760.639367.865229-11.6576-3.84804
1973q2 10.414062.784192-3.979885.314087-0.912374.7629927.482492-8.60565-8.20307-11.89488.686472.4679981.431265.3238730.3893362.220873-0.2681811.34575-11.9756-7.61144
1973q3 9.519672.638386-5.840856.101111-2.433764.39334316.83464-14.792-8.77255-15.20994.5853324.9550913.3481554.9268311.270403-3.64216-0.3776910.99016-13.3263-10.0801
1973q4 14.074410.694833-4.03373.627812-0.902023.12124913.96821-8.10753-7.35102-14.15422.4051187.4895569.8058456.521961-1.46478-0.24403-2.333417.814146-11.0608-8.0202
1974q1 9.637553-0.504581.694774-0.009651.618273-4.395611.11249-0.66141-5.44592-13.9468-5.070015.2500947.7710836.938009-1.529883.27953-3.11436.180708-7.81095-0.57791
1974q2 5.4874131.4658433.9143751.2112972.681827-10.893210.42976-0.05457-4.34359-8.88105-6.091467.0327019.4607945.775665-0.819361.3483030.3680865.444161-6.195240.356372
1974q3 7.8290951.3088144.453309-0.236414.484107-7.07501-2.104028.1809080.58052-6.67388-8.562594.8906667.1304785.815034-3.717057.682887-0.548515.4570731.2026155.406538
1974q4 -9.165143.7713172.4388321.918262.134776-3.83793.115686-0.5233-0.37046-11.6911-7.977873.372661-6.149344.045436-1.556642.7046482.57657214.97985-0.511962.68273
1975q1 -12.21966.414984-3.14255.5622861.0887525.9823496.708297-8.88568-2.37357-9.49213-4.472386.341865-5.818985.213382-2.57581-4.434777.56168616.40508-3.93343-3.0656
1975q2 -9.599952.636689-5.807283.717147-0.6702814.677551.064078-5.27752-5.38891-4.4718-5.474034.100473-7.607984.411114-4.23758-2.366215.56792712.29869-7.978410.836713
1975q3 -11.57410.291546-4.593691.958279-1.004519.865331.617199-12.2226-7.97217-3.212711.4140061.187235-17.54540.864765-3.95498-2.582222.90155610.87281-11.16681.973407
1975q4 -0.42762-1.52023-2.15150.135402-0.931498.40282-0.66212-13.6557-8.30845-0.131241.70130.53523-19.02791.091301-4.26919-1.895410.7498976.538851-11.35233.235265
1976q1 -1.00301-2.407432.392817-1.140880.1807034.425225-0.64741-7.03836-7.63837-9.520922.172164-0.94732-19.384-0.97097-2.90671-3.46345-0.787125.842089-10.12675.485415
1976q2 -1.285910.9415156.7582031.6614322.601329-1.753254.490961-5.60938-11.5706-21.47784.027393-0.09843-21.66330.71211-6.91265-5.76943-0.1962213.02015-15.45595.744957
1976q3 -0.981623.5318926.2413562.922221.866532-6.033348.065752-2.19884-10.6776-19.20765.2635163.604622-12.11923.635306-9.01424-8.44322.63990713.16072-14.63791.288975
1976q4 -6.433379.0774072.9244665.8846652.715432-8.8879912.9729-1.04433-14.4933-22.75185.0331327.926284-7.126837.313297-10.0456-9.118327.09537111.14278-20.25830.456486
1977q1 -13.88617.769577-3.560075.3163371.170143-8.5570710.35564-3.12931-11.2114-14.6676.8517667.288636-5.780645.749068-17.9966-4.836164.8104683.401255-15.6350.194777
1977q2 -13.05856.230017-8.15689-0.63621-6.61374-7.481377.564933-3.62224-5.16426-4.99478.0811987.2562-2.833772.791626-25.8482-2.54276-0.53173-2.70136-7.25982-1.18066
1977q3 -13.62486.364358-10.1293-1.5754-6.73726-1.311148.555359-1.89018-3.0006-7.967178.3719825.490193-2.31181.46745-22.6272-21.996-5.227390.873081-4.31579-1.26633
1977q4 -9.031051.767275-12.6368-5.85084-10.3272-0.054355.20041-1.372774.488477-6.0312715.96810.6336580.579035-4.43933-26.6423-22.9492-16.52657.5770316.185441-3.92335
1978q1 -3.365424.794968-10.691-3.11664-13.5705-2.963497.825321-5.557373.637736-6.1157214.71613.2441010.001629-5.29141-22.0855-23.0652-16.980119.222374.684197-6.67101
1978q2 -5.188092.877744-9.98276-0.35554-10.97820.3983466.196517-7.82154-0.33367-5.5106518.798922.483878-1.66413-8.32024-17.9442-22.5778-12.820419.86784-0.7779-7.4271
1978q3 -8.241960.562591-11.3059-1.00537-11.62850.0241383.099411-12.11470.30686-6.8691227.163270.86748-3.01901-8.8593-25.7912-0.27892-8.9368125.26717-0.02607-11.8394
1978q4 -8.562123.496855-11.04883.176887-7.91522-0.182315.657408-13.7439-1.66771-7.9304220.284793.878335-3.06208-4.68731-25.42644.760589-2.1894917.58108-2.89249-10.794
1979q1 -7.384511.245267-9.199011.984335-4.408873.3755153.894451-8.78616-2.12709-6.2159912.896692.40674-2.41448-4.49931-24.96197.677077-1.341556.316839-3.34172-6.53823
1979q2 -5.682510.36555-4.07843-1.159010.630225-1.169733.897725-6.525091.7897-5.0271-1.904660.8968640.435934-1.3844-19.387113.34873-0.417165.1699017.482786-3.06117
1979q3 -1.53562.490231-2.01646-0.332292.824616-1.799516.32163-4.886690.601084-3.04792-15.5982.569279-2.586240.164337-14.42998.7135771.047797-2.8290210.83080.765312
1979q4 0.0716750.7731651.752792-3.60824.4554781.9979915.331145-4.835822.984053-0.94727-24.02761.222466-3.55533-0.71679-11.90824.7951381.936404-1.633577.715884.208902
1980q1 1.389983-0.444863.374926-8.962964.5547421.5168264.035839-8.582230.41980.126579-19.17360.47158-4.370891.765519-6.540751.6012442.307156-0.5748611.063553.922916
1980q2 2.591631.472582-0.63743-7.446675.1437292.2403553.238128-16.2577-0.6341-2.75557-6.085751.038716-6.892112.564783-2.19872-8.317441.116688-0.216058.126971.299803
1980q3 3.3186080.9530650.89919-5.986734.224372.4277621.745246-16.60260.04912-4.442880.4234931.800268-3.761252.861367-0.93144-9.825510.591534-0.522296.1016650.328261
1980q4 4.864774-2.85657-0.78709-7.170032.676094-2.47848-4.69522-13.3162-7.25983-5.8421716.45469-1.78379-3.793132.1890991.720889-10.51.026583-2.0824114.33151-0.06724
1981q1 6.061524-5.00695-2.02459-6.017912.310705-5.79455-7.35264-12.8434-11.063-9.1815523.58657-5.36732-5.433690.6846940.547384-11.70131.481094-3.1199512.257131.621476
1981q2 7.713652-6.112760.341513-7.117151.302239-8.34712-6.6308-6.85954-11.8489-11.513215.11883-6.50572-5.780971.633521-0.24834-7.140522.271959-1.839736.7441287.814887
1981q3 10.68546-6.445410.688022-7.658251.919412-9.62434-7.1673-4.96196-11.9522-11.18969.047668-7.39629-7.063451.2430740.072598-4.29053-0.33180.265833-2.8258914.95768
1981q4 6.699349-3.258823.044554-3.734111.984641-8.542540.591532-5.05387-4.9328-11.92022.880173-0.56822-7.786712.096939-2.95782-4.96274-9.3796410.78534-9.0001510.1544
1982q1 2.539061-5.868242.618604-3.668113.020244-7.313772.973015-3.93237-1.9449-9.74635-4.958682.544858-7.302234.326207-5.06218-3.48475-9.7441815.54018-9.9594910.69367
1982q2 -1.46454-10.4007-0.86391-2.633313.154614-5.737235.964619-5.50508-0.08053-6.60653-4.803595.573943-6.876313.644171-8.93282-5.21975-10.416811.3844-7.451358.358856
1982q3 -8.67863-10.6171-0.58045-4.367573.7071-10.77437.42648-8.09718-1.31161-6.1706-6.241377.087574-3.97645-0.19592-18.022-4.51248-7.518577.1013221.2204917.570379
1982q4 -8.03566-11.42190.871463-4.01508-5.86809-8.672424.756788-8.76751-3.00192-3.77034-5.548524.450682-2.32571-4.69908-18.1018-6.90724-14.5443-1.4450.51039911.91397
1983q1 -8.75902-5.070790.5233490.870709-7.94628-5.491137.442337-23.04311.070534-1.672594.9511285.542797-4.88179-7.37457-20.0631-16.0002-17.20431.101648-11.3465.734237
1983q2 -13.7834-0.676692.7139421.275627-7.70109-9.27635.381744-17.915-4.59302-2.365718.5853592.916548-7.48789-6.4711-20.4142-17.6204-16.13254.709787-5.637884.412112
1983q3 -7.73816-1.92252.7799280.554222-7.91074-4.978252.963729-14.9972-6.3054-3.3732612.442290.847584-6.96394-1.01885-23.2882-20.1117-15.74777.190196-5.672613.30559
1983q4 -2.83408-2.727250.151334-1.819321.156673-6.628461.320166-21.1533-7.68995-4.3554415.15679-1.29432-6.877552.450477-23.3486-16.927-0.441946.987464-4.969292.015216
1984q1 2.585302-4.08566-0.4169-4.111432.421674-8.50587-0.78156-9.87931-10.0924-6.535538.386156-2.68053-3.566121.648146-23.5501-5.459892.591922.0621693.3402695.450855
1984q2 5.98163-2.47687-3.64678-3.769792.306965-3.15525-0.86575-16.1112-4.13287-4.789278.036938-0.783420.103591-0.34435-22.5741-0.833451.497352-0.14171-4.032914.189949
1984q3 0.137513-0.73281-4.60052-1.905161.292114-2.72635-0.72603-16.9485-2.45717-4.137024.898412-1.33255-18.6953-3.57532-12.57330.4690191.590776-3.8652-7.246635.983901
1984q4 -0.001780.043191-3.69164-1.174891.175097-2.36893-1.8609-14.5919-1.07557-3.619881.462967-1.94585-23.1799-5.57535-12.54462.3971161.839107-4.05962-8.896718.194372
1985q1 -10.58080.331337-3.56049-0.412110.042482-2.30797-2.98162-10.637-0.81999-3.33086-1.88467-2.60203-23.2766-4.18333-11.66831.4230370.584422-6.90602-10.94612.27151
1985q2 -22.0509-0.14362-2.89860.2614250.034191-1.1013-2.11274-11.543-0.94718-5.1556-1.87414-2.15156-23.4336-3.367-11.5242-1.30187-0.3467-3.39148-0.062569.156032
1985q3 -18.87330.892953-3.677231.9378830.5744832.4408491.616779-14.75061.427857-6.877282.6371311.1448174.156529-0.98349-11.3684-1.92613-1.15952.7307825.2266040.243355
1985q4 -29.6672.582415-7.925633.6052340.9735935.7397485.232297-30.65393.806156-5.4356712.444823.85454810.647690.620939-11.7886-5.44161-1.305464.0596155.369543-8.37819
1986q1 -23.4624.034438-10.60784.8472290.9878318.6239379.233428-33.62677.080118-2.2506620.603797.3598640.8643550.599938-10.5903-5.34223-1.660548.3045862.326426-18.0326
1986q2 -11.84615.037491-8.429145.030545-1.134474.2261219.003457-29.89218.006391-0.0094727.895587.5654993.806543-4.7205-9.56003-4.50383-1.398958.7094-4.91579-20.0348
1986q3 -29.06154.939618-9.249935.029323-2.962552.1267199.493269-27.88554.0812344.48084232.459047.997322-15.8419-9.35424-9.86556-2.00941-2.8357910.15414-14.7917-19.953
1986q4 -16.86594.989667-5.37895.276704-3.194761.248189.568433-11.46891.3262285.95991317.655087.952786-17.1107-11.2401-9.01599-0.48359-3.353377.80475-17.6336-13.6559
1987q1 -15.42325.6265920.1762476.058329-1.4241-0.269339.192493-11.2645-1.124123.38477811.764237.490846-3.76535-11.3368-9.57588-3.12585-2.314048.158115-9.28339-13.7387
1987q2 -10.16713.958727-0.660055.042570.7630181.9617717.506028-11.9985-3.389861.2212438.7987136.031094-4.67188-4.77891-9.36244-2.96787-1.229857.233331-6.33975-13.0142
1987q3 7.2360552.6518612.0751961.9409442.2511771.3531884.35815-11.7955-1.29993-1.71353-0.712353.42662510.38360.789377-7.52421-0.58469-0.699271.124344-0.26985-8.10164
1987q4 -3.312131.6082971.0396620.4248852.867785-0.179263.211076-10.6163-0.0842-3.31728.2393122.74457711.281120.915313-7.026163.253207-1.189433.7635338.053398-13.2117
1988q1 -3.09977-0.779981.683946-1.40172.438692-1.287640.230349-8.94369-1.00865-3.7505911.573990.6825759.5035910.881277-6.366254.544577-0.794032.7545136.973993-11.3261
1988q2 1.396819-1.072965.442048-1.960851.879862-1.68155-0.18677-7.67926-1.29698-3.559017.961320.2635019.1301781.028952-5.802555.701226-0.35982-0.835156.083061-8.7078
1988q3 7.863159-1.99746.961181-1.410040.462577-3.04338-1.60629-7.07412-2.62156-3.985938.106123-1.510291.115767-2.01818-5.124831.412934-0.06333-2.519814.755954-4.85982
1988q4 15.65949-1.942457.604746-2.50780.884278-3.4478-2.44581-7.17752-3.26494-3.338257.258398-2.20652-6.09468-0.80044-4.209710.473371.081407-4.77153.716651-3.75665
1989q1 18.30555-2.704447.000774-4.959181.006993-4.27798-3.78438-7.22322-4.81888-2.532871.35804-3.52957-8.791210.473635-3.482234.9474530.762392-7.499463.3851630.862563
1989q2 5.493056-1.92025.193589-4.263633.674406-2.95261-2.91843-8.42209-3.09946-0.24507-5.82877-2.7063-8.94608-1.69393-3.501552.914970.299502-8.21728-3.586135.341818
1989q3 -2.41299-0.289593.7117-2.267294.433999-0.78505-0.73049-7.84136-0.473942.626211-6.29784-0.38363-6.91149-0.36589-3.512144.9389830.699707-3.62343-4.04611.101754
1989q4 -2.772311.0951974.7558070.8041553.2625621.6508461.659995-7.593632.4337562.041158-12.641.33745-1.724180.286606-3.341793.758661-0.31156-3.9039-9.547853.687324
1990q1 -8.154394.3425381.2265095.9965313.5026435.4273985.710045-7.762127.3131453.341084-16.6384.585671-0.34999-0.4466-3.302211.177799-1.01250.554736-9.667741.161999
1990q2 -1.209115.5574391.49897.6080010.6544926.1345396.053328-9.055128.3833423.857858-16.26064.817927-3.12573-0.34766-2.997745.353494-1.139747.320083-5.38528-1.49368
1990q3 0.7970225.3797410.3258496.8308011.4345366.1338075.731533-8.640216.7280741.750898-8.742214.254452-1.493840.34194-2.65915.822513-1.958827.9571412.779917-6.32461
1990q4 -7.889574.150373-2.717544.7883511.1198154.7369973.931473-9.790424.6324320.9471591.7325132.897099-4.049690.834013-0.670124.219315-1.863088.2448366.752178-9.27006
1991q1 -4.080762.024867-0.037851.197342-0.844160.8003961.235224-11.91221.048614-0.115746.0174670.783256-4.743740.1320890.1125434.186955-0.799715.4553596.251926-6.82734
1991q2 -1.9095-1.165391.197906-2.48681-1.99163-2.74462-2.19154-12.6297-3.37806-2.8090112.63629-1.84562-1.09359-2.899810.008936-0.72009-1.06433-0.776983.227459-2.33003
1991q3 -1.60308-1.250881.644974-2.85558-4.89781-3.42278-2.12805-13.0819-2.50074-2.6790310.04942-1.5515-4.0386-3.253332.097731-2.73051-1.25622-5.87665-3.823711.876656
1991q4 2.942439-0.627663.429737-2.39058-8.90313-2.91346-1.54772-11.1701-1.70323-1.208124.487869-1.08133-6.10927-2.290610.673067-1.294780.735492-5.57821-3.450822.475506
1992q1 -2.06648-0.59168-1.32557-1.74636-13.7786-1.12699-1.1812-8.62895-0.94922-1.219776.564735-0.71408-7.88617-1.694291.873705-1.818761.201168-6.27962-3.543691.513873
1992q2 -4.725551.35404-5.365461.076682-12.84512.6073632.22014-7.177961.9926810.1705423.6052531.663213-10.55451.542625.1151750.1889881.641101-5.596420.775264-3.30722
1992q3 -13.45193.347427-7.903124.261456-11.73255.2940425.288329-8.110995.199650.3881722.7765653.968303-10.03933.2593222.9183560.1931684.3436792.3679920.242658-7.28635
1992q4 -11.7334.239576-10.89285.765396-16.98156.3229775.550535-9.28536.229453-12.19245.9583174.5524-4.183290.3265433.415645-7.45324-4.46842.989458-12.82581.234446
1993q1 -6.897074.336221-6.150357.29156-19.54016.1728095.585144-9.166210.266461-20.204110.012134.528911-0.88475-1.429010.87347-7.35554-19.33192.012791-13.94993.29267
1993q2 -9.721853.89098-6.363466.427237-18.07755.1093764.595513-8.41877-3.25526-18.837320.465534.1315461.176854-2.18754-4.85028-13.2671-20.39655.13428-13.6683-0.08914
1993q3 -5.77262-0.76648-6.53053-0.40896-17.5877-0.300391.189848-9.15691-10.7459-20.435925.701681.5521176.019971-5.61304-9.8342-19.1929-26.72781.929669-11.15855.417349
1993q4 -4.14203-3.42153-4.31622-1.55776-6.35086-1.86957-0.30461-8.37247-12.5058-12.108617.673360.1985336.419461-3.9495-11.1318-12.2114-20.77622.4481641.7466842.107266
1994q1 1.103351-1.99646-6.39812-3.035885.49492-1.73913-2.47294-8.21391-5.54979-5.4760413.63339-1.678227.259838-3.73678-10.0362-15.2658-3.448567.0266393.712243-0.01507
1994q2 3.41921-0.22764-8.54561-2.124454.241887-1.51536-0.502-8.33281-1.13584-4.280037.626646-0.293415.972885-2.62211-7.6381-9.12416-3.041396.011437-0.150981.35176
1994q3 5.8537513.947903-6.50723.5433367.7516673.5031721.927311-5.889063.834768-4.996433.5484691.7308333.7201480.5117530.160119-1.48486-1.055226.548182-2.27192-3.13686
1994q4 6.8248664.733236-5.094262.53402212.264722.8161161.50789-5.284093.449594-3.629295.2049331.2453314.9813940.7924181.535899-1.674623.5275255.223907-0.99833-5.21048
1995q1 -1.445555.091769-7.285663.63276710.529763.3538036.341962-3.529061.700164-7.926476.4794925.1064165.2030623.7986662.924038-2.27835-1.615735.764598-3.46502-6.40489
1995q2 -9.398915.625466-2.572086.22461712.695554.1767927.104451-1.678311.150538-16.768914.333065.9592366.144513.5971833.616941-0.86673-4.781358.677085-5.23214-10.565
1995q3 -3.586723.14209-0.071174.52021111.627472.9924753.895908-2.346471.182124-8.652342.628213.2879996.7640552.7227771.129179-0.102191.2108525.197622-3.94971-4.14803
1995q4 -2.400373.391670.4096314.1876036.0131723.3979834.383326-2.850120.3592-5.64315-4.803363.636984.4242092.3494630.5959910.9710435.8001827.803786-5.93911-1.52785
1996q1 2.6728140.3311983.3640882.0690410.4432742.0452720.18193-3.994331.1292283.655174-10.01580.4286876.4385590.542939-0.598544.7022438.2140063.955124-3.879331.550174
1996q2 15.70714-3.107473.167212-2.67265-4.502870.323229-3.66876-2.42641.82705713.58577-21.7701-2.986686.5588-0.24982-1.117091.53970713.9765-1.848220.8760338.313493
1996q3 10.21613-1.954830.426291-2.02768-2.93976-0.41173-2.03139-0.981932.442739.252553-13.6949-1.908756.662141-0.38094-0.18317-0.5608710.95339-0.646151.6948525.083429
1996q4 9.091374-3.900911.669451-3.03224-3.6645-1.64661-4.178240.1961574.3774749.388533-8.89294-3.966969.1217680.4749620.465579-2.043173.33976-7.746578.9778113.969157
1997q1 7.931771-5.046552.869213-3.5946-1.4622-3.42104-5.269130.1983845.1562324.200134-9.99968-5.498457.439043.693556-0.20862-4.97979-1.63219-11.708614.492276.324266
1997q2 2.088512-4.427020.473569-2.40533-0.87136-3.85225-4.52746-2.995121.174071-0.11245-6.19182-5.038526.29227-0.31239-0.75066-4.63224-6.35453-7.4704315.714256.626096
1997q3 -0.19133-6.525971.595274-4.82683-5.46352-5.97836-7.55299-4.18911-1.21102-2.06-1.40084-7.460670.074465-2.82509-3.37183-5.70232-5.13204-7.8279117.208598.176549
1997q4 -5.37611-3.60143-1.19739-2.52037-4.04441-2.73847-3.92718-2.01384-3.54143-1.78364-2.13581-4.25195-4.04889-0.05504-3.43362-3.39447-3.68216-0.627912.2244110.24552
1998q1 -6.66979-1.6625-2.25085-1.05755-3.0398-0.76841-1.50761-2.51588-8.71847-0.948434.703728-1.91146-9.35836-5.16257-2.99626-1.4596-0.613825.2330659.53102110.2137
1998q2 -11.72670.034524-1.634950.015749-0.609871.0445530.770998-7.02176-3.771620.638682-5.256480.092731-15.4334-1.34101-1.51526-0.233393.6974041.7861126.9144329.400784
1998q3 -13.04952.824723-6.678653.37422.2976084.0475344.322105-3.81021-1.579322.257219-11.65633.261445-14.226-1.063131.0677522.169213-1.058142.3516763.6846929.222171
1998q4 -10.47152.175152-9.514683.3659782.3220312.4131722.828494-5.25615-0.559491.3797995.3801172.500706-14.4212-7.061311.2041381.33363-6.769012.163408-1.741080.698649
1999q1 -8.687090.883218-7.070061.4543780.7517140.7312130.704545-2.450930.9152180.1529766.1918260.929461-9.44424-4.714470.4294640.253177-2.95919-0.10189-4.61214-3.56864
1999q2 2.0082-1.3935-2.51365-0.70468-1.72329-1.8344-2.299741.926337-3.84245-2.1693311.2703-1.83657-1.14441-1.72271-1.01984-1.47279-6.39806-0.1103-2.17647-1.96567
1999q3 4.575399-2.991130.588239-2.88377-4.02518-3.59777-4.40423-1.60864-6.09905-3.7258521.25109-3.66362-1.97547-0.60019-2.10805-2.82765-1.77571-1.89524-1.94939-4.41545
1999q4 3.080214-4.850664.788203-5.34245-6.37607-5.5469-6.43484-3.82267-8.48703-5.1777415.9298-5.83998-3.970331.064391-3.2373-4.208142.095728-5.637833.626244-0.66359
2000q1 0.826833-4.827394.481128-5.17086-6.01433-5.42739-6.2199-7.42264-8.41209-4.9628111.05162-5.91358-7.02004-0.05237-3.20407-4.06073-0.31266-5.932525.334280.678464
2000q2 -9.61643-4.54372-0.13652-5.0736-5.84758-5.20701-6.09006-7.65863-7.66839-4.7776715.25781-5.62462-10.4111-5.4582-2.97011-3.861332.154589-2.917941.764910.927065
2000q3 -8.94024-4.416791.561875-4.66022-5.47658-5.16283-6.00995-7.59244-7.62683-4.73748.93649-5.4815-12.5685-3.86942-2.86944-3.7495-1.63757-1.392210.6472723.596883
2000q4 -11.3818-4.15922-0.90761-4.06739-4.92195-4.96209-5.72846-6.91312-7.36943-4.50361.419594-5.16518-12.737-2.82943-2.64128-3.48672-4.48430.62042-0.137078.751641
2001q1 -11.1595-0.15118-2.857570.1935630.163516-0.43298-0.51353-2.15578-0.47224-0.3218-5.22452-0.26208-5.76879-0.607630.019808-0.07245-6.099144.388278-3.820927.443558
2001q2 -6.543570.053268-1.612290.8206710.707326-0.13988-0.05991-0.72135-0.38311-0.00998-8.685430.053254-5.844673.5914560.1331540.143116-10.11612.240529-1.214658.474397
2001q3 -6.251831.118478-2.411532.1869632.1001031.1330041.4292390.6126471.4496121.159205-8.741181.4178081.2888083.7792340.7889661.018553-10.36173.7108860.2934496.12853
2001q4 -1.127552.132601-2.58882.8749133.1511272.3203192.7486912.0529763.3498382.18137-10.72222.6373524.7154714.4498251.4105131.824684-7.450325.279892-0.570343.63183
2002q1 2.173734-0.62026-2.64181-0.19028-0.54061-0.74239-0.80999-0.34941-1.38391-0.65002-8.52358-0.720982.682814.562564-0.43012-0.48873-2.688043.4689592.1945495.951831
2002q2 5.7030391.365149-1.332831.3214351.4748481.5083111.7166071.1364312.4660031.332799-5.478471.6630219.1309027.9541940.7787291.0816960.8939395.900665-0.49612-1.21406
2002q3 1.5051251.914754-3.040741.4447771.8830752.1536542.5280611.5466163.6798811.915625-2.974242.3418286.7791569.6876141.0653321.4694763.8501885.1926950.137992-4.77558
2002q4 3.2969232.191506-1.224871.4891982.0917692.512943.0149822.0116754.149252.280252-4.210442.71077312.2147310.374551.2274921.7302856.3267613.1032650.623852-5.27952
2003q1 2.7136774.1742951.5543823.7321864.4935834.6366445.5086333.7137637.8740764.2007731.8120835.1232214.661987.3788682.4693453.3047194.3040885.173388-3.23079-12.1032
2003q2 5.3730444.9821456.9969264.8723275.558485.5581356.6871924.7563339.1400715.107315-1.707736.136549.891448-0.615023.0588664.0619346.0601431.991678-4.78146-12.1572
2003q3 12.747623.56634110.335393.538764.0319273.9736944.7983543.4559696.4789613.646284-3.801244.38943713.44505-7.331192.273752.9708045.208862-1.60842-5.44634-8.19354
2003q4 15.336173.6664114.168913.5806194.0720734.1136474.9694983.6008436.9079273.7652994.2288114.60607910.42679-8.112362.321253.0176845.647423-1.87504-4.75906-13.4324
2004q1 16.643632.65304110.323672.5702883.214323.0974753.8966732.8279754.8839752.8815213.3250463.4795728.252552-10.5251.6522412.1512973.695476-3.764562.429459-11.8869
2004q2 5.9849370.1685241.1073430.0124430.3417780.3162540.5007970.2524730.3944970.296124.1448440.3962233.724532-3.674410.0448050.050530.459808-0.946676.132376-5.53334
2004q3 2.1610210.8736143.4417570.711551.1323571.0881.4254311.0641961.6099061.025362.5953711.2740185.490801-0.789890.4511660.6315721.259231.8239615.902718-6.52154
2004q4 0.4753691.3148495.742151.1185021.4901991.4859221.810661.0464092.4070871.337867-2.011431.6461576.2999041.6268080.7196340.9693421.4430182.973242.438644-6.68034
2005q1 -2.220080.6040225.9145160.2678870.3825080.6203320.653874-0.106221.27670.473814-1.567780.6376522.9246685.0880690.2891290.3785591.611581.937781-1.35226-5.3045
2005q2 3.5105790.6000057.531650.2949980.5273020.6079820.683011-0.129311.1830310.465782-2.234290.6447258.7896333.2410240.3003540.378193-0.231320.204049-1.1245-5.54096
2005q3 5.897028-0.11198.257152-0.51841-0.24815-0.21295-0.32481-0.75672-0.21199-0.28567-3.1032-0.277973.6452536.341773-0.12139-0.16067-2.87736-1.41097-2.26189-2.64072
2005q4 3.09743-1.411445.806694-1.42347-1.34263-1.66237-1.98744-1.76706-2.95721-1.57143-7.65562-1.830063.724443.155468-0.88275-1.17129-6.99285-2.607080.0239494.353861
2006q1 0.328058-1.317528.004271-1.37161-1.34214-1.56274-1.89533-1.66737-2.73534-1.46561-8.40607-1.74119-2.096491.698768-0.79633-1.07369-4.8393-2.24949-1.0914.224787
2006q2 -1.368990.2909310.699980.0403020.3235850.2795970.320164-0.047350.3154580.244445-6.801850.276773-12.23613.1951780.1657620.226228-0.89677-1.00906-1.34235-1.19238
2006q3 -1.365260.9132456.4531510.6607231.0435511.0632861.3259630.6215641.5006640.980905-7.076821.122424-9.36263-1.430290.5292070.7006542.666919-0.332721.946679-3.04861
2006q4 -0.208691.3468711.4943980.9954651.4395761.6166572.0173381.0099812.466511.494667-5.037791.68838-6.73164-3.815390.7938721.0275885.612428-1.214383.30447-4.91818
2007q1 2.8797061.630422-2.756861.4515191.9312321.9822612.527131.6642382.8129821.876075-5.886652.0990230.85972-0.179230.9485071.2951533.866892-1.516765.215366-3.18275
2007q2 8.3481081.6338261.4659581.5896972.0333751.9566772.5133071.7248042.6788721.858508-8.378372.09192513.74859-1.711930.9825441.3374482.554385-3.200754.033334-2.54307
2007q3 7.7753861.5685275.7786441.5462331.8197941.8324652.3104811.5913942.6785161.718729-4.894041.96780911.080923.5395320.9115421.2631611.345199-2.540892.274598-4.73777
2007q4 8.602122.55061912.835472.3331732.8184342.8522243.4497362.5730644.5726612.652117-1.160093.0978255.0577017.5651561.5284332.088340.767802-1.27024-2.01952-9.05533
2008q1 6.5875263.09117712.860833.0382443.2479843.2942473.797913.0871165.9288013.0110927.0906553.6515553.4359685.9203571.9388212.556240.969144.260665-9.22012-11.2076
2008q2 5.0628173.6627175.5375253.4421043.7743663.9121174.4685723.9582287.0666593.6077259.1691164.213939-4.672025.8748142.3502583.0798892.9597586.057607-12.0547-9.97166

Figure 2.  Australia

Data for Figure 2 immediately follows

Data for Figure 2

TIME COUNTRY INFLATION CURRACCTPERGDP UNEMPRATE REALINTRATE FISCBALPERGDP TERMSOFTRADE4QCHANGE GDP4QCHANGE BONDRATE REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1 AL   -1.6087 1.593752   -0.0717     5.986667 92.93719
1970q2 AL   -2.4103 1.636896   -0.0717     6.883333 80.12936
1970q3 AL   -2.08737 1.632675   -0.0717     6.876667 83.61253
1970q4 AL   -2.39694 1.649272   -0.0717     6.84 77.08953
1971q1 AL 6.490119 -2.45059 1.693472 0.909882 -0.48701 -11.0285 3.443227 6.846667 69.81059
1971q2 AL 6.509127 -1.66177 1.864508 1.407539 -0.48701 -7.10869 2.097732 6.833333 68.55109
1971q3 AL 6.442913 -1.35468 1.891161 0.207088 -0.48701 -3.25426 5.258239 6.803333 64.14162
1971q4 AL 5.597105 -2.19219 2.06105 0.469562 -0.48701 -12.124 4.654634 6.37 59.34674
1972q1 AL 5.896682 -0.57588 2.371498 -0.36335 -0.88655 -6.32957 2.331664 5.94 68.94705
1972q2 AL 5.639827 0.726737 2.336296 -0.02316 -0.88655 -0.55398 4.3509 5.85 76.51617
1972q3 AL 6.92866 1.189403 2.873059 -2.36199 -0.88655 2.875972 0.704064 5.766667 74.35652
1972q4 AL 8.894701 1.518163 2.705824 -4.27803 -0.88655 17.76947 2.063996 5.77 74.36189
1973q1 AL 8.477857 1.792265 2.564293 -3.49452 -0.18459 24.29336 4.488905 5.75 72.55624
1973q2 AL 11.34055 1.14987 2.340491 -5.14055 -0.18459 23.1475 2.802772 6.346667 63.90549
1973q3 AL 13.72005 -0.08047 2.090125 -6.33672 -0.18459 17.21981 3.667463 7.283333 59.02643
1973q4 AL 15.22246 -0.61862 2.131742 -5.85579 -0.18459 14.61489 5.650534 8.353333 49.16333
1974q1 AL 16.1659 -1.9062 2.096011 -6.54924 -0.99641 6.240157 4.211386 8.363334 51.9281
1974q2 AL 15.61082 -3.72927 2.107463 3.322517 -0.99641 -6.24615 0.70992 8.783334 45.71461
1974q3 AL 15.83978 -3.44413 2.643725 -1.90645 -0.99641 -6.51888 2.146758 9.5 30.58765
1974q4 AL 17.18438 -3.14594 3.701602 -7.03438 -0.99641 -10.8066 -0.88869 9.5 26.88929
1975q1 AL 15.34414 -0.54793 4.488314 -6.44414 -2.91278 -17.208 -0.56659 9.466666 30.67472
1975q2 AL 12.83893 -0.14903 4.878999 -3.67227 -2.91278 -8.39645 5.621322 9.5 31.502
1975q3 AL 12.12729 -1.1273 5.032921 -3.99396 -2.91278 -9.89673 3.038517 10 31.07876
1975q4 AL 12.9028 -2.4172 4.989967 -5.0028 -2.91278 -5.26956 1.525291 10 33.01302
1976q1 AL 11.65918 -1.87654 4.609034 -3.52584 -3.01894 -3.20767 4.509719 10.00133 36.27391
1976q2 AL 14.55577 -1.49147 4.57739 -4.51577 -3.01894 0.975522 1.830006 9.998667 35.11848
1976q3 AL 13.12428 -1.20315 5.128295 -3.67761 -3.01894 1.382929 3.34716 9.990833 36.34163
1976q4 AL 9.376501 -2.59558 4.5695 -0.0365 -3.01894 -1.48965 5.549149 10.11917 31.08296
1977q1 AL 11.78557 -3.13542 5.050032 -2.46223 -3.50852 -3.28428 1.412634 10.4 30.57922
1977q2 AL 9.330072 -3.29436 5.700134 1.586595 -3.50852 -7.72354 2.464319 10.40583 31.01082
1977q3 AL 8.515809 -3.11875 5.976721 2.167524 -3.50852 -11.2852 1.300957 10.34983 29.84491
1977q4 AL 7.666259 -1.81044 5.545216 2.260407 -3.50852 -10.9699 0.344268 9.871166 29.7382
1978q1 AL 7.474159 -3.3911 6.528456 2.219174 -4.17651 -10.0052 1.159599 9.290833 29.91923
1978q2 AL 7.76733 -3.49385 6.323061 2.929337 -4.17651 -6.92594 0.885495 9.134 30.80752
1978q3 AL 7.857203 -3.70596 6.313323 1.896131 -4.17651 -3.13098 2.323964 9.043333 33.2263
1978q4 AL 8.295799 -4.19646 6.272751 0.9342 -4.17651 -0.46228 3.696265 8.854333 32.90312
1979q1 AL 8.064611 -2.5559 6.137217 0.692056 -2.88248 1.93199 7.023398 8.979667 34.71478
1979q2 AL 9.169991 -2.36654 6.356266 1.236675 -2.88248 4.016431 3.4218 9.700833 33.61953
1979q3 AL 9.804709 -1.49813 6.219223 0.031958 -2.88248 6.005472 3.583289 10.07333 35.50231
1979q4 AL 9.93398 -1.45687 6.158206 0.159353 -2.88248 7.482009 4.573705 10.0775 39.01913
1980q1 AL 9.95996 -1.5855 5.928022 0.560041 -2.27657 5.555002 1.196958 10.62767 45.59028
1980q2 AL 8.653605 -2.00811 6.229752 4.993061 -2.27657 -0.80055 3.725649 11.697 45.9961
1980q3 AL 8.787403 -3.30385 6.094779 3.509264 -2.27657 -1.39289 3.447896 11.80017 50.99057
1980q4 AL 9.722281 -3.9272 5.951538 1.924385 -2.27657 -2.73207 2.872776 12.26167 54.30233
1981q1 AL 9.003967 -4.01598 5.7231 4.529366 -2.68426 -1.85272 2.860716 13.0625 49.43272
1981q2 AL 9.297048 -4.15345 5.51429 6.886285 -2.68426 -1.2483 4.392102 13.09333 50.66356
1981q3 AL 9.860974 -4.56113 5.788389 5.625692 -2.68426 0.931556 5.078759 14.385 42.63116
1981q4 AL 10.09817 -5.66958 5.933408 4.851832 -2.68426 -1.5977 3.349468 15 39.13951
1982q1 AL 11.36695 -5.45428 6.141395 6.039713 -3.73376 -5.40561 1.94486 15.06167 32.77584
1982q2 AL 12.38538 -5.39023 6.513907 7.084623 -3.73376 -1.23326 0.817395 15.80417 31.3332
1982q3 AL 10.89991 -3.64741 7.016138 5.740089 -3.73376 -3.50436 -1.47705 16.25083 30.22268
1982q4 AL 10.84929 -3.76013 8.723769 2.970708 -3.73376 -1.5361 -2.80107 14.52167 29.68317
1983q1 AL 9.68901 -3.82351 9.491078 3.537657 -4.92135 1.954966 -2.47359 13.56833 30.70268
1983q2 AL 7.904707 -3.57834 10.15476 5.53196 -4.92135 0.750078 -3.16417 14.17 35.53171
1983q3 AL 8.284883 -3.90792 10.21605 3.721785 -4.92135 1.096624 0.496896 14.69 40.16352
1983q4 AL 6.87559 -3.13459 9.648889 3.251077 -4.92135 3.121125 3.90514 13.54084 41.65685
1984q1 AL 7.155248 -4.02003 9.286023 4.701418 -4.8674 1.906135 7.306956 13.82601 41.54238
1984q2 AL 7.305931 -4.04047 9.128699 6.184069 -4.8674 0.975549 7.769603 13.90555 37.57193
1984q3 AL 5.790304 -4.66947 8.719358 5.673029 -4.8674 1.482532 5.624642 13.17447 38.94721
1984q4 AL 3.866909 -5.63178 8.591413 7.723091 -4.8674 -0.05059 4.967179 13.29387 40.42526
1985q1 AL 4.456886 -4.16325 8.447771 9.693113 -4.88974 -0.15871 4.078511 13.54052 42.27843
1985q2 AL 4.17527 -5.21451 8.425058 11.51473 -4.88974 -7.0895 5.889327 13.76931 45.42149
1985q3 AL 5.056222 -5.91752 8.092987 11.00044 -4.88974 -8.60437 6.195334 13.54234 49.25901
1985q4 AL 6.023731 -6.12555 7.756683 12.0096 -4.88974 -12.8956 5.370476 14.75123 51.515
1986q1 AL 5.345584 -6.12844 7.853763 12.55442 -4.12618 -12.681 3.970631 13.89447 54.56368
1986q2 AL 6.065155 -6.22304 7.567491 8.991512 -4.12618 -6.09384 1.179877 12.58337 59.62704
1986q3 AL 5.592139 -4.96954 8.007893 11.17453 -4.12618 -9.73821 1.030312 13.86005 57.99052
1986q4 AL 7.110434 -4.71616 8.090796 8.9729 -4.12618 -5.51452 1.63939 13.5574 67.23208
1987q1 AL 7.03199 -4.41689 7.992373 9.291344 -2.37546 -4.7099 2.60734 13.70492 74.8626
1987q2 AL 7.58451 -3.96829 7.969562 6.71549 -2.37546 -2.64775 4.285986 12.94766 80.42204
1987q3 AL 8.817976 -3.48715 7.763268 3.592024 -2.37546 4.881513 4.866357 12.78057 95.74436
1987q4 AL 7.639851 -3.37135 7.669527 4.326816 -2.37546 5.506379 5.956835 13.13099 58.04012
1988q1 AL 8.474936 -3.29314 7.290309 2.508397 -0.71954 8.543329 5.39704 12.34727 56.23651
1988q2 AL 7.940217 -4.37189 7.366466 4.31645 -0.71954 11.09163 4.459242 11.87904 64.28881
1988q3 AL 8.681089 -4.69272 6.692356 4.665577 -0.71954 13.13636 3.621546 11.85131 64.5581
1988q4 AL 9.693118 -4.76849 6.52871 4.920216 -0.71954 13.69262 2.769043 12.18588 60.77275
1989q1 AL 8.388405 -5.6227 6.28875 8.061596 -0.56533 14.72862 3.30701 13.47857 59.31625
1989q2 AL 8.172002 -6.05108 5.946147 9.611331 -0.56533 9.730265 5.0209 13.65444 58.87068
1989q3 AL 6.541546 -6.19533 5.777982 11.50512 -0.56533 2.837973 5.349562 13.23285 65.63225
1989q4 AL 5.406997 -5.82204 5.612813 12.75967 -0.56533 2.645817 4.082664 13.35012 62.0777
1990q1 AL 5.213942 -6.36459 5.92852 11.24273 -2.04497 -2.46342 3.71681 13.1325 59.91193
1990q2 AL 5.440226 -4.52056 6.161421 9.629774 -2.04497 -1.84161 1.560221 13.54798 54.57482
1990q3 AL 4.400781 -4.29836 6.887561 9.689219 -2.04497 -1.29572 -0.04053 13.42266 54.80871
1990q4 AL 4.236416 -4.95528 7.54514 8.32025 -2.04497 -6.07907 -0.08729 12.66596 47.60221
1991q1 AL 3.530113 -4.21988 8.321541 8.149887 -4.70258 -7.59432 -1.51364 11.62336 50.4014
1991q2 AL 1.604424 -3.69184 9.162171 9.218909 -4.70258 -8.84222 -1.55271 10.99226 54.86615
1991q3 AL 2.056367 -3.01328 9.516698 7.960299 -4.70258 -6.76809 -0.96405 10.77059 55.99758
1991q4 AL 2.222529 -2.82275 9.889157 6.160804 -4.70258 -3.19147 -0.7643 9.822086 58.65131
1992q1 AL 1.806803 -3.22611 10.0179 5.686531 -5.47456 -0.98483 1.027498 9.970782 57.14046
1992q2 AL 1.869928 -3.74019 10.41769 4.850071 -5.47456 -0.6045 1.502697 9.282183 58.97285
1992q3 AL 1.269915 -3.80454 10.52794 4.500085 -5.47456 -3.12536 2.52194 8.682754 55.06342
1992q4 AL 0.610206 -3.45671 10.75682 5.269794 -5.47456 -3.72443 4.038536 8.850736 52.17019
1993q1 AL 1.223068 -3.18258 10.64928 4.470265 -4.40564 -3.77026 4.17496 8.361087 56.33319
1993q2 AL 1.348631 -3.39754 10.56902 3.864703 -4.40564 -5.97599 4.49298 7.59573 60.20466
1993q3 AL 1.381176 -3.0388 10.5574 3.51549 -4.40564 -4.8723 3.279816 6.908788 67.32412
1993q4 AL 1.394491 -3.09237 10.46512 3.408843 -4.40564 -3.9143 3.527092 6.66748 73.25709
1994q1 AL 0.64803 -3.06183 10.07981 4.18197 -4.45687 -3.01284 4.093532 6.90627 76.2302
1994q2 AL 0.8068 -4.77758 9.667845 4.156533 -4.45687 -0.38345 4.613366 8.698334 71.08569
1994q3 AL 0.935123 -5.87525 9.205335 4.711544 -4.45687 0.557781 6.094711 9.635196 71.81097
1994q4 AL 1.051725 -5.8223 8.729187 6.134942 -4.45687 4.065888 4.55174 10.33396 67.28904
1995q1 AL 1.185585 -6.49175 8.509686 7.007749 -3.70162 3.259667 3.63409 10.20627 65.04417
1995q2 AL 1.448311 -5.30919 8.116896 6.265022 -3.70162 2.447717 3.817497 9.2537 69.51447
1995q3 AL 1.534576 -4.34 8.005348 6.008758 -3.70162 3.325819 3.907717 8.964148 72.68784
1995q4 AL 1.986241 -4.64477 8.056276 5.467092 -3.70162 0.578258 4.116258 8.419457 72.58398
1996q1 AL 2.738192 -4.07921 8.130425 4.748475 -2.35087 2.32258 4.663291 8.389683 76.20307
1996q2 AL 2.465031 -3.32168 8.136497 5.098303 -2.35087 5.477627 3.847268 8.879146 76.07192
1996q3 AL 2.059619 -3.79328 8.18111 5.070381 -2.35087 4.71349 3.499286 8.224299 75.17387
1996q4 AL 1.297611 -3.68887 8.306816 5.129056 -2.35087 4.083828 3.939087 7.3437 79.78761
1997q1 AL 1.388194 -3.0516 8.378648 4.538473 -0.65783 2.326517 2.373248 7.584174 80.56606
1997q2 AL 0.914512 -1.97239 8.293633 4.838821 -0.65783 1.35285 4.59684 7.583118 86.4209
1997q3 AL 1.615035 -2.89681 8.212539 3.338298 -0.65783 1.340819 3.985644 6.534975 88.84785
1997q4 AL 1.920112 -3.48257 7.956761 3.029887 -0.65783 0.82296 4.160687 6.117407 82.47263
1998q1 AL 0.575111 -4.84698 7.866389 4.398223 1.645572 -1.3237 5.442816 5.852667 88.86378
1998q2 AL 0.695576 -4.19353 7.745056 4.37109 1.645572 -2.87901 3.814664 5.633413 89.30112
1998q3 AL 0.5401 -5.08153 7.753087 4.5899 1.645572 -5.83624 4.966795 5.501928 84.80093
1998q4 AL -0.6729 -5.03532 7.43917 5.509571 1.645572 -6.90909 5.632573 4.983874 90.53914
1999q1 AL 0.260551 -5.39073 7.185666 4.529449 2.045984 -3.39163 4.797613 5.318139 95.68526
1999q2 AL -0.37641 -5.91965 6.985648 5.226409 2.045984 -2.87066 5.039079 5.813293 98.73927
1999q3 AL 0.280718 -5.39962 6.844463 4.659282 2.045984 1.809926 3.954673 6.272424 96.3895
1999q4 AL 1.678911 -4.53888 6.654724 3.787755 2.045984 5.442386 3.430447 6.633391 98.28857
2000q1 AL 2.73714 -4.56268 6.464885 3.046193 0.927427 6.592219 4.294919 6.901983 99.75917
2000q2 AL 4.134144 -4.69806 6.376729 2.059189 0.927427 6.004341 4.15161 6.300913 100.4269
2000q3 AL 4.914385 -2.78601 6.005367 1.505615 0.927427 5.329621 3.871343 6.175162 102.0298
2000q4 AL 4.842803 -2.99203 6.190802 1.470531 0.927427 2.649205 1.663645 5.880219 100.3803
2001q1 AL 4.471531 -2.15654 6.391371 1.075136 -0.13836 0.364567 1.393089 5.285803 100
2001q2 AL 4.409249 -1.83813 6.824092 0.497417 -0.13836 1.372 1.058425 5.805817 103.0909
2001q3 AL 3.204175 -1.41805 6.793955 1.642492 -0.13836 1.293528 1.927067 5.808712 96.8825
2001q4 AL 3.127496 -2.60176 6.891261 1.16917 -0.13836 1.433995 3.906606 5.560726 99.97867
2002q1 AL 3.087078 -2.46236 6.625985 1.256255 1.295319 2.60858 3.918483 6.037694 101.7084
2002q2 AL 2.838975 -3.69944 6.365936 1.994358 1.295319 2.029265 4.401436 6.172283 97.65529
2002q3 AL 2.58436 -4.13141 6.246527 2.368973 1.295319 1.458373 4.106166 5.647969 89.80309
2002q4 AL 3.053904 -4.76141 6.114477 1.802763 1.295319 2.864079 3.307233 5.517885 88.3084
2003q1 AL 2.479589 -4.87912 6.068 2.290411 1.764506 2.311419 3.374769 5.238139 83.28336
2003q2 AL 2.166507 -5.91091 6.029741 2.58016 1.764506 2.516406 2.547379 5.058907 86.96727
2003q3 AL 2.98478 -5.51641 5.898199 1.831887 1.764506 3.501055 3.14546 5.423203 90.08289
2003q4 AL 3.188218 -5.22457 5.700951 2.061782 1.764506 4.811924 4.360565 5.746692 91.5827
2004q1 AL 4.044984 -5.4915 5.536161 1.498349 1.057714 7.5568 3.825146 5.578812 92.97104
2004q2 AL 4.370857 -5.61009 5.428474 1.142476 1.057714 9.698161 3.894626 5.868857 95.63338
2004q3 AL 4.005608 -6.55206 5.502879 1.434392 1.057714 9.791459 3.082767 5.571818 98.12036
2004q4 AL 3.75518 -6.7961 5.134615 1.661487 1.057714 8.875789 1.958878 5.344596 106.2834
2005q1 AL 3.251386 -6.34002 5.109921 2.368613 1.54521 7.864305 2.345056 5.467404 111.0104
2005q2 AL 3.791418 -5.55855 5.071555 1.905249 1.54521 11.50531 3.335437 5.299484 109.5365
2005q3 AL 4.281316 -5.66766 4.96565 1.348684 1.54521 11.59657 3.332972 5.198432 117.7832
2005q4 AL 4.708287 -5.42738 5.012242 0.921713 1.54521 12.63212 3.636621 5.393989 119.4689
2006q1 AL 4.752246 -5.23855 5.001553 0.864421 1.530024 10.45305 3.097255 5.272268 127.9498
2006q2 AL 4.702936 -5.627 4.865992 1.137064 1.530024 6.313295 2.002144 5.688536 129.6146
2006q3 AL 5.100198 -4.96085 4.700788 1.049802 1.530024 6.430429 2.136462 5.736325 126.6959
2006q4 AL 4.674996 -5.40517 4.549285 1.67167 1.530024 6.414081 2.468003 5.652727 136.0869
2007q1 AL 4.423299 -5.67412 4.481998 1.986701 1.588874 7.541447 3.840861 5.81 143.8634
2007q2 AL 3.64541 -6.39996 4.315347 2.777923 1.588874 5.495278 4.395377 6.01 152.8688
2007q3 AL 2.778038 -6.10275 4.267831 3.941962 1.588874 3.111856 4.753963 6.023334 153.1185
2007q4 AL 3.127914 -6.66251 4.352493 3.988753 1.588874 2.199259 4.380362 6.136667 156.5116
2008q1 AL 3.510502 -6.83683 4.017843 4.079498 1.80906 2.059547 3.401613 6.153333 130.7836
2008q2 AL 6.373653 -4.77777 4.252058 1.426347 1.80906 14.49891 2.775025 6.373333 125.9327

Figure 3.  Finland

Data for Figure 3 immediately follows

Data for Figure 3

TIME COUNTRY INFLATION CURRACCTPERGDP UNEMPRATE REALINTRATE FISCBALPERGDP REALEFFEXRATE GDP4QCHANGE BONDRATE REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1 FI 1.863566 4.409496 115.1333 7.686666 7.549328
1970q2 FI 2.022436 4.409496 114.0667 7.633333 8.128429
1970q3 FI 1.956104 4.409496 113.5967 8.033334 8.287646
1970q4 FI 1.749419 4.409496 112.4567 7.956666 8.553942
1971q1 FI 5.36294 1.898 1.820393 4.447676 112.4533 1.543356 7.696667 8.55809
1971q2 FI 6.207008 2.275637 1.642992 4.447676 112.5633 4.007779 7.573333 8.683108
1971q3 FI 8.103642 2.365162 0.613024 4.447676 113.19 2.125411 8.68 8.565178
1971q4 FI 9.672403 2.428707 -1.0824 4.447676 110.6767 0.483482 8.616667 8.336083
1972q1 FI 5.606196 2.657749 2.143804 3.759538 105.7667 10.17344 7.966667 9.373771
1972q2 FI 9.599488 2.488476 -1.83949 3.759538 106.9133 4.080407 7.943333 9.698752
1972q3 FI 8.907215 2.594706 -1.13722 3.759538 107.6733 6.240877 8.096666 11.08471
1972q4 FI 8.041276 2.475367 -0.24461 3.759538 107.4133 8.884421 7.853333 11.69737
1973q1 FI 10.26313 2.55521 -2.4498 5.351175 106.5733 7.733516 8.166667 14.39171
1973q2 FI 12.08192 2.359878 -4.20526 5.351175 106.7267 4.480674 8.25 13.98115
1973q3 FI 12.44519 2.296364 -2.37853 5.351175 108.6167 6.746662 8.346666 14.09762
1973q4 FI 17.75277 2.126308 -5.92277 5.351175 109.8433 6.569717 8.273334 14.57594
1974q1 FI 19.64107 1.724813 -8.9244 4.872756 111.6233 2.545425 8.846666 12.81986
1974q2 FI 21.77452 1.56182 -10.7079 4.872756 114.1367 5.878618 8.776667 11.64493
1974q3 FI 19.07577 2.00703 -9.68577 4.872756 116.6533 2.801656 9.063334 11.47482
1974q4 FI 20.59224 1.69751 -10.1189 4.872756 115.61 0.974929 8.476666 9.464219
1975q1 FI 16.64767 -9.76014 1.645408 -6.28433 5.078825 118.8567 3.241844 9.526667 9.290069
1975q2 FI 12.54345 -8.09978 1.71959 -1.03345 5.078825 119.36 2.08478 9.573334 8.772448
1975q3 FI 13.65439 -6.94889 2.567675 -2.37439 5.078825 121.36 -0.04501 9.69 9.311879
1975q4 FI 7.948858 -4.661 3.06029 5.764475 5.078825 122.61 -1.03629 9.713333 8.592727
1976q1 FI 10.87733 -5.4167 3.331129 1.706002 7.811965 126.82 -2.23451 9.833333 8.058706
1976q2 FI 11.03108 -1.92333 3.779144 1.275589 7.811965 127.93 -0.98892 10.37333 7.41122
1976q3 FI 13.28817 -3.62064 4.140504 -1.2015 7.811965 129.7367 1.039671 10.03667 6.930214
1976q4 FI 13.20113 -3.56513 4.126226 -0.6978 7.811965 130.2533 2.84526 10.42333 6.253374
1977q1 FI 9.878094 -0.17934 4.969149 1.545239 6.398666 132.09 1.607691 10.98333 5.95486
1977q2 FI 9.462976 -3.66726 5.710384 1.747025 6.398666 124.25 0.954578 10.90333 5.579103
1977q3 FI 8.96601 1.907135 6.10628 2.627323 6.398666 124.96 0.461782 10.82333 5.181964
1977q4 FI 8.89826 0.301256 6.582394 3.90174 6.398666 120.7667 -0.60251 10.30333 4.650925
1978q1 FI 7.688134 0.478834 7.371797 2.725199 3.939618 116.94 1.340021 10.54333 4.866667
1978q2 FI 8.058181 1.586995 6.954406 -0.24151 3.939618 112.67 2.162676 9.87 4.916307
1978q3 FI 7.400542 2.127245 7.049339 0.392792 3.939618 111.2067 1.982383 9.55 4.679169
1978q4 FI 7.485138 2.882648 7.176382 0.794862 3.939618 111.59 4.367317 9.233334 4.646465
1979q1 FI 8.137616 0.92377 6.755427 -0.53762 3.53771 112.1133 5.299793 9.476666 5.121743
1979q2 FI 7.998275 0.748092 5.812382 -0.35494 3.53771 113.1133 6.944461 9.54 5.278097
1979q3 FI 7.877823 -1.20558 5.561802 -0.10449 3.53771 113.1 7.361795 9.49 5.715031
1979q4 FI 8.518595 -1.79032 5.174121 2.548072 3.53771 114.78 6.39994 9.49 5.369586
1980q1 FI 10.03647 -2.50035 4.584788 1.016864 3.839908 114.9733 6.050187 10.20333 5.416358
1980q2 FI 10.23195 -3.69451 4.516972 1.811387 3.839908 118.1667 3.233627 10.51667 5.44946
1980q3 FI 8.448307 -3.5543 4.688677 4.608359 3.839908 118.8167 7.247852 10.49667 5.246358
1980q4 FI 8.925395 -1.22352 4.620516 4.187939 3.839908 120.14 3.303091 10.47 4.742115
1981q1 FI 11.02411 0.453723 4.60183 2.08256 5.237211 120.4767 1.454554 10.96 4.672483
1981q2 FI 10.12195 -1.53129 4.958588 0.684716 5.237211 121.6667 3.08821 10.97667 4.837916
1981q3 FI 12.02094 -1.04053 5.331353 -1.23428 5.237211 122.2467 -1.28509 10.99 4.835963
1981q4 FI 10.80226 -1.01598 5.3407 0.654407 5.237211 122.9033 1.864627 11.01 4.864876
1982q1 FI 8.617564 0.411478 5.501201 2.892436 3.152068 125.48 2.673353 11.19 5.431528
1982q2 FI 8.889179 -0.99235 5.386015 2.634154 3.152068 127.7933 2.489834 11.01667 6.037605
1982q3 FI 8.656934 -2.62373 5.284056 2.333066 3.152068 129.0833 3.075836 10.84 6.114484
1982q4 FI 8.352704 -3.36777 5.417658 4.853963 3.152068 116.8467 3.941697 10.90333 5.987203
1983q1 FI 7.711507 -2.26082 5.511816 4.771826 1.585473 117.27 3.438141 10.62333 6.70945
1983q2 FI 7.90375 -1.68845 5.764789 6.292917 1.585473 120.2633 3.502203 10.66667 7.753518
1983q3 FI 8.10012 -2.38598 5.189109 7.06988 1.585473 122.2433 3.337135 10.67333 8.826948
1983q4 FI 8.210662 -1.9974 5.391434 8.299338 1.585473 121.9333 1.83381 11.07667 9.807488
1984q1 FI 8.524595 0.98409 5.197237 8.975405 3.327022 122.5833 3.283199 11.14 10.86658
1984q2 FI 8.488474 0.175292 5.477904 8.224859 3.327022 124.7167 2.373784 11.22333 11.19876
1984q3 FI 8.312187 -0.61739 5.077776 8.037813 3.327022 125.3133 2.347941 11.07667 10.84744
1984q4 FI 7.282522 -0.17925 5.202061 8.154144 3.327022 124.8367 3.764345 11.02333 10.11056
1985q1 FI 6.392376 -0.95803 4.994464 7.870957 3.461502 124.4233 2.885198 10.71667 9.224911
1985q2 FI 5.492334 -0.64141 5.048304 8.351 3.461502 126.4067 3.87139 10.60333 8.233114
1985q3 FI 4.277964 0.200095 5.061331 9.102036 3.461502 127.6033 3.47998 10.60333 8.333488
1985q4 FI 4.985124 -3.87618 5.175077 7.384876 3.461502 127.4067 2.474761 10.68 9.244851
1986q1 FI 5.288926 -3.26229 5.482773 6.127741 3.910072 126.8533 1.848079 9.49 9.969241
1986q2 FI 4.524036 0.228555 5.486955 6.825964 3.910072 126.1267 1.160669 8.756667 11.68962
1986q3 FI 3.551851 -1.19329 5.36589 12.72482 3.910072 125.22 4.928981 8.63 13.90395
1986q4 FI 5.344463 0.413285 5.261554 6.555537 3.910072 125.0767 2.868452 8.78 15.34436
1987q1 FI 3.569255 -1.86406 5.441463 7.740745 1.641426 127 3.571805 7.83 16.56417
1987q2 FI 5.164632 -1.39866 5.120707 4.708701 1.641426 128.5667 4.864515 7.816667 18.43872
1987q3 FI 5.68273 -1.19048 4.890022 3.870604 1.641426 128.8 0.985793 7.853333 21.42853
1987q4 FI 4.518325 -3.05541 5.017681 4.875009 1.641426 129.4233 4.828931 8.136666 20.47572
1988q1 FI 7.205131 -1.7791 4.816261 2.178203 5.216558 131.57 5.330554 10.14 19.88074
1988q2 FI 7.655453 -2.16921 4.748787 1.67788 5.216558 133.2167 4.40448 10.19667 24.21492
1988q3 FI 7.131009 -4.27141 4.400146 2.852325 5.216558 131.8767 5.241201 10.63667 26.22185
1988q4 FI 8.346272 -1.77499 4.253694 2.81706 5.216558 133.5667 5.123538 11.25667 24.33364
1989q1 FI 7.49961 -2.75555 4.64252 3.520391 6.783159 135.54 5.04573 11.69667 25.09755
1989q2 FI 5.797571 -4.63821 4.417056 6.082429 6.783159 141.1133 5.987228 11.97667 25.55902
1989q3 FI 5.516149 -6.49722 4.538179 6.797184 6.783159 140.9433 5.934692 12.06667 24.5054
1989q4 FI 4.663874 -5.57472 4.126877 10.34946 6.783159 141.05 4.148774 12.60333 20.39518
1990q1 FI 5.19195 -3.8984 4.081755 10.62138 5.356049 143.4233 2.908609 12.91593 21.04775
1990q2 FI 4.653563 -4.94745 4.40103 8.423103 5.356049 143.79 0.578402 13.21667 18.41426
1990q3 FI 6.197272 -5.34323 4.660323 6.486062 5.356049 143.9667 -1.00789 13.33 16.39293
1990q4 FI 4.279506 -5.80221 5.087563 10.13383 5.356049 142.3667 -1.88973 13.37333 12.71448
1991q1 FI 1.28504 -6.23411 5.805172 13.03163 -0.95156 141.6533 -4.46322 12.72667 12.39036
1991q2 FI 2.154376 -5.78783 7.389209 10.24562 -0.95156 139.79 -5.81649 11.61333 13.97018
1991q3 FI 2.363315 -4.35352 8.980046 9.296685 -0.95156 135.04 -7.02571 11.10333 12.14817
1991q4 FI 2.276321 -4.85057 10.0282 11.66368 -0.95156 128.4367 -8.0225 11.40333 10.57448
1992q1 FI 1.782225 -5.45605 11.41161 10.34111 -5.43619 121.4633 -5.18364 11.39333 12.13043
1992q2 FI 0.982437 -4.9113 12.46163 12.89756 -5.43619 121.1733 -3.98699 11.95667 11.87695
1992q3 FI 1.378861 -4.10608 13.58931 13.77447 -5.43619 118.9967 -4.30451 12.85333 9.81572
1992q4 FI 0.432385 -3.87447 14.68896 11.41762 -5.43619 107.9367 -2.30035 11.68667 11.92601
1993q1 FI 2.90412 -3.37284 16.22366 6.672547 -8.27398 99.21333 -2.93744 10.35333 14.32565
1993q2 FI 2.756168 -1.33213 17.67879 5.443831 -8.27398 100.1833 -2.6606 9.43 17.45395
1993q3 FI 0.538067 -0.52011 17.9795 6.328599 -8.27398 98.32333 0.840737 8.153334 20.46381
1993q4 FI -0.03978 0.100451 18.59421 6.48978 -8.27398 99.53667 1.018518 7.363333 23.80865
1994q1 FI -1.12302 1.730458 18.87847 6.059691 -6.74471 102.4633 2.70061 6.856667 28.78036
1994q2 FI -0.31769 2.025661 18.50048 5.611028 -6.74471 102.6067 4.370662 8.78 28.01311
1994q3 FI 1.56502 1.680185 17.39809 4.098314 -6.74471 105.5267 3.731672 10.33667 29.42253
1994q4 FI 4.497942 -0.97384 16.70971 1.008724 -6.74471 111.73 2.943394 10.17333 29.66647
1995q1 FI 4.899384 4.245203 16.75023 1.067283 -6.15623 113.2233 3.634468 10.21333 28.24381
1995q2 FI 5.587342 4.376891 16.33218 0.365991 -6.15623 115.2867 3.503655 8.983334 28.76879
1995q3 FI 5.779123 2.455968 16.96543 0.27421 -6.15623 116.6667 3.098981 8.353333 35.07999
1995q4 FI 3.647619 5.272253 16.7546 1.379047 -6.15623 116.58 4.817653 7.616667 30.10243
1996q1 FI 2.12127 3.351485 16.35171 2.042063 -3.5229 111.9267 3.297232 7.47 27.72191
1996q2 FI 0.259743 5.415467 15.80566 3.506924 -3.5229 108.68 3.310886 7.346667 30.95785
1996q3 FI -1.30394 3.707181 15.8913 4.787274 -3.5229 111.61 3.592618 7.05 23.26946
1996q4 FI -1.52343 3.506647 15.43075 4.610099 -3.5229 110.9567 4.470224 6.44 26.1395
1997q1 FI 0.717964 3.940183 13.51471 2.352036 -1.22681 108.8333 5.212538 6.056667 31.26701
1997q2 FI 0.817684 5.773234 13.30551 2.258983 -1.22681 106.9967 5.663693 6.203333 33.36507
1997q3 FI 1.913282 6.452487 12.10168 1.260051 -1.22681 105.1767 6.751007 5.863333 38.35844
1997q4 FI 2.999973 6.015602 11.91642 0.606694 -1.22681 106.42 6.196039 5.706666 38.112
1998q1 FI 3.608 6.006396 11.78597 -0.15133 1.673679 105.8933 5.743718 5.166667 41.15121
1998q2 FI 4.257689 6.019379 12.01305 -0.55436 1.673679 106.43 5.890159 5.013333 51.31251
1998q3 FI 3.559944 5.282664 11.23257 0.046723 1.673679 107.6767 5.030567 4.663333 51.26816
1998q4 FI 2.888308 5.078884 10.70742 0.618358 1.673679 108.96 3.802361 4.306667 48.97276
1999q1 FI 0.817587 4.58957 10.50425 2.275746 1.639905 106.5133 4.247 4.07 64.64498
1999q2 FI 0.422507 6.492528 10.48997 2.21416 1.639905 104.8 3.196656 4.296667 74.03773
1999q3 FI 1.116297 6.742546 10.01462 1.587036 1.639905 103.34 3.199398 5.126667 81.04153
1999q4 FI 0.884359 7.007907 10.04938 2.545641 1.639905 102.38 4.722331 5.396667 109.1319
2000q1 FI 1.974502 8.068958 10.49051 1.567865 6.937951 101.4 4.807212 5.653333 164.2307
2000q2 FI 2.547126 6.57279 9.791739 1.71324 6.937951 100.13 5.185643 5.48 167.9774
2000q3 FI 2.373321 10.41292 9.562547 2.364279 6.937951 99.53667 5.443395 5.466667 148.1326
2000q4 FI 3.320604 7.371417 9.428552 1.701629 6.937951 98.94334 3.958168 5.33 133.2712
2001q1 FI 3.322912 9.770607 9.188534 1.423355 5.033273 102.2833 4.354781 4.993333 100
2001q2 FI 3.331117 7.31792 9.001957 1.263949 5.033273 101.3367 2.857765 5.216667 95.56763
2001q3 FI 2.713992 7.78906 9.163916 1.553808 5.033273 101.96 1.704359 5.13 68.73792
2001q4 FI 2.180815 9.491015 9.249382 1.261718 5.033273 102.2367 1.013608 4.833333 78.33949
2002q1 FI 1.637858 9.32529 9.058908 1.724609 4.157435 101.8833 0.014693 5.16 82.61859
2002q2 FI 1.096097 9.161055 9.13558 2.34937 4.157435 102.83 1.558869 5.326667 65.98219
2002q3 FI 1.32424 8.610957 9.172318 2.033093 4.157435 103.8033 1.704794 4.84 53.95227
2002q4 FI 1.127317 8.289186 9.073288 1.981617 4.157435 104.3067 3.029387 4.596667 59.45933
2003q1 FI -0.4891 5.351872 9.028624 3.172667 2.409456 106.25 1.710141 4.136667 52.95304
2003q2 FI -0.10997 6.584614 9.173509 2.474538 2.409456 108.0633 1.663702 3.946667 54.52626
2003q3 FI -0.48963 5.074245 8.990986 2.628868 2.409456 107.14 2.335517 4.13 56.44184
2003q4 FI -0.49029 3.640916 8.989054 2.639825 2.409456 107.67 1.813993 4.326667 60.86678
2004q1 FI 1.242633 6.987546 8.941817 0.820867 2.176737 108.47 3.636249 4.063334 67.00787
2004q2 FI 0.424592 5.294075 9.079889 1.657475 2.176737 106.4633 3.61409 4.276667 57.5091
2004q3 FI 1.116019 6.147048 8.754156 1.000281 2.176737 106.94 3.273957 4.236667 54.43494
2004q4 FI 0.542531 7.706081 8.629 1.621069 2.176737 107.8833 4.277326 3.86 60.89026
2005q1 FI 0.125479 4.98085 8.749921 2.014855 2.673759 107.6167 2.955799 3.63 63.88633
2005q2 FI 0.31082 2.09376 8.370495 1.81378 2.673759 106.1833 2.252556 3.333333 67.40363
2005q3 FI -0.46388 4.256936 8.192031 2.594209 2.673759 105.2933 3.705174 3.143333 73.39142
2005q4 FI 0.610875 3.081682 8.358789 1.732592 2.673759 104.99 2.708518 3.296667 76.03462
2006q1 FI 0.723141 5.453 7.993033 1.888426 4.001626 105.08 4.530972 3.446667 85.56625
2006q2 FI 1.113775 6.206392 7.747608 1.775725 4.001626 105.9567 5.531255 3.946667 87.55686
2006q3 FI 2.106053 4.897571 7.698262 1.115314 4.001626 106.2733 4.096463 3.933333 83.39624
2006q4 FI 2.116347 1.60663 7.557524 1.47812 4.001626 107.0233 4.611028 3.803333 88.82404
2007q1 FI 2.445374 3.662544 7.131401 1.37496 5.339425 107.79 4.638491 4.036667 95.36285
2007q2 FI 2.69001 3.859997 6.543769 1.374823 5.339425 108.85 4.404899 4.383333 104.3055
2007q3 FI 2.843556 6.399561 6.957458 1.656944 5.339425 109.0333 4.195725 4.44 107.6183
2007q4 FI 3.002788 3.315641 6.897218 1.721979 5.339425 110.1433 4.085511 4.313334 110.475
2008q1 FI 3.409777 4.306506 6.16768 1.070223 4.603198 112.22 2.701946 4.066667 95.17308
2008q2 FI 3.2038 2.830886 6.130591 1.656666 4.603198 113.8033 2.400279 4.49 87.15093

Figure 4.  Greece

Data for Figure 4 immediately follows

Data for Figure 4

TIME COUNTRYINFLATIONCURRACCTPERGDPUNEMPRATEREALINTRATEFISCBALPERGDPREALEFFEXRATEGDP4QCHANGEBONDRATEREALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1 GC2.70.633685115.5233
1970q2 GC2.70.633685116.8333
1970q3 GC2.70.633685114.1033
1970q4 GC2.70.633685114.4333
1971q1 GC4.3751672.33.6248330.097191112.55337.514193
1971q2 GC1.4894312.36.5105690.097191113.26.180615
1971q3 GC4.3310092.33.6689910.097191107.87338.861747
1971q4 GC1.4721372.36.5278630.097191105.54337.600164
1972q1 GC2.35201525.6479850.010059100.87679.955164
1972q2 GC6.14951521.8504850.010059101.556710.606
1972q3 GC3.64892124.3510790.01005998.655.426056
1972q4 GC7.40413320.5958670.010059101.363312.69144
1973q1 GC12.722561.8-4.72256-0.0342697.166668.108819
1973q2 GC13.355381.8-5.35538-0.0342695.138.572552
1973q3 GC20.207551.8-10.2076-0.0342690.789.789086
1973q4 GC28.098261.8-18.0983-0.03426108.57334.752144
1974q1 GC25.304591.5-13.9713-1.20664114.89332.361952
1974q2 GC24.854681.5-12.8547-1.20664110.3567-6.4506
1974q3 GC21.742711.5-9.74271-1.20664110.28-13.7757
1974q4 GC12.223261.5-0.22326-1.20664109.1733-9.0734
1975q1 GC11.180671.30.819325-2.6205104.69670.604345
1975q2 GC11.376171.30.623831-2.6205104.74.998348
1975q3 GC11.401911.30.598087-2.620598.099.899026
1975q4 GC14.634641.3-3.13464-2.6205100.01679.51137
1976q1 GC17.19827-3.607991.1-5.69827-1.47569101.695.0946
1976q2 GC15.77591-2.102751.1-4.27591-1.47569103.246.62174
1976q3 GC15.01851-4.938541.1-3.51851-1.4756999.965.935426
1976q4 GC12.92833-1.739311.1-1.42833-1.47569100.36338.756418
1977q1 GC12.18422-1.932170.8-0.18422-2.245399.495.061862
1977q2 GC12.33678-4.358520.8-0.33678-2.2453101.31670.828836
1977q3 GC12.97277-3.092870.8-0.97277-2.2453100.70673.706903
1977q4 GC14.0626-2.951320.8-2.0626-2.2453103.12.028908
1978q1 GC13.35853-2.638451-1.35853-2.5932399.156.339612
1978q2 GC13.85386-1.965651-1.02053-2.5932399.206678.460502
1978q3 GC12.80054-4.5899611.699458-2.5932393.623344.869567
1978q4 GC11.712160.10155612.787845-2.5932393.928.217651
1979q1 GC15.72929-2.933511-1.22929-2.1454598.016674.79304552.1791
1979q2 GC16.36569-3.58021-1.36569-2.14545100.67675.82596248.57745
1979q3 GC19.46182-5.931951-2.12849-2.1454598.696663.54428943.81141
1979q4 GC21.84661-2.010131-1.84661-2.14545100.14-1.1336538.71864
1980q1 GC15.97191-3.518381.94.028088-2.3372899.711.79958536.98579
1980q2 GC18.39823-4.458331.91.601767-2.3372895.980.43237132.94622
1980q3 GC17.44952-3.876941.95.050482-2.3372893.210.5545631.29806
1980q4 GC18.60603-4.092641.93.893969-2.3372898.64-0.1140728.17659
1981q1 GC20.74445-4.045763.21.75555-7.7606499.45667-5.4509626.25215
1981q2 GC18.42179-4.89663.23.411543-7.76064100.2567-5.756325.57629
1981q3 GC19.48859-5.58253.21.011408-7.7606499.283332.44708821.57941
1981q4 GC18.87671-4.35063.21.623289-7.76064104.91332.51281520.04377
1982q1 GC24.17798-2.284384.9-8.92798-6.53827105.39672.54920319.41894
1982q2 GC25.6389-1.767454.9-10.3889-6.53827106.820.58833517.53004
1982q3 GC24.58227-7.148214.9-9.33227-6.53827102.7733-3.2528317.42081
1982q4 GC22.65031-3.124124.9-7.40031-6.53827106.5167-4.3918516.7672
1983q1 GC18.98644-5.791137-3.73644-6.7479694.27-3.6493115.56667
1983q2 GC18.41751-1.194827-3.16751-6.74796100.3467-2.6242612.93504
1983q3 GC18.23139-5.947037-2.98139-6.7479699.566670.73243211.11493
1983q4 GC18.94271-2.911527-3.69271-6.7479697.733331.2036659.971746
1984q1 GC20.56182-5.69147.3-3.47849-7.5557195.613331.7639458.650173
1984q2 GC19.77643-3.442037.3-1.77643-7.5557195.413332.3156858.877177
1984q3 GC19.99539-4.165587.3-1.99539-7.5557194.753332.9823738.357649
1984q4 GC19.0944-5.052627.3-1.0944-7.5557194.893330.9184588.238446
1985q1 GC16.47105-8.637171.528952-10.373197.01334-1.156448.019021
1985q2 GC15.52798-7.2772272.972025-10.373194.913331.62109116.558.542214
1985q3 GC16.2846-7.6503872.215399-10.373192.323.3165314.178.159039
1985q4 GC20.36596-5.516127-1.86596-10.373182.416665.93384314.018.239832
1986q1 GC18.56163-5.110266.6-0.06163-8.5878583.686672.06565114.949.990805
1986q2 GC18.55112-3.74476.6-0.05112-8.5878585.744.5522316.989.676149
1986q3 GC18.2953-3.156786.60.204704-8.5878584.91333-1.6095316.5911.11894
1986q4 GC14.72629-1.02236.63.773713-8.5878586.52333-2.7370514.616713.0378
1987q1 GC14.15016-2.96956.54.349842-8.5608885.58667-0.5289417.456716.76694
1987q2 GC15.45881-3.821766.53.041187-8.5608887.68667-5.0827717.356719.89651
1987q3 GC13.747651.2065776.55.75235-8.5608885.37666-3.312716.913331.76418
1987q4 GC13.45775-1.993956.56.042251-8.5608887.38667-0.2793443.51256
1988q1 GC15.65649-3.246076.93.843509-10.339886.656.37831620.3934.11219
1988q2 GC14.54593-1.389666.94.787407-10.339888.906674.5082417.023333.45033
1988q3 GC15.939720.686826.93.060281-10.339888.073334.94681414.866730.75637
1988q4 GC15.80183-0.872076.93.19817-10.339889.946661.03223713.966730.07585
1989q1 GC13.726-1.592346.64.773997-12.144888.493332.18873627.15125
1989q2 GC13.00579-3.663846.65.994206-12.144888.693344.85620828.9513
1989q3 GC13.59865-4.539316.65.401354-12.144889.056662.73519934.45883
1989q4 GC13.68128-3.533146.65.985388-12.144891.166665.13110443.2026
1990q1 GC15.34573-6.747836.25.65427-14.0491.133332.63690349.53457
1990q2 GC18.25633-2.963016.24.74367-14.0493.180.92830888.09135
1990q3 GC20.18634-3.57796.23.813658-14.0495.44666-4.78163110.0204
1990q4 GC21.28539-1.991486.22.714611-14.0497.283330.94054471.39801
1991q1 GC19.87372-4.816966.93.792942-9.8633894.130.42626277.88007
1991q2 GC18.67562-0.776056.94.824379-9.8633894.283331.51701674.82474
1991q3 GC17.04730.9756856.96.452698-9.8633894.4433410.443561.85096
1991q4 GC16.65718-1.152266.96.009485-9.8633897.843330.14531151.4688
1992q1 GC15.81245-1.473347.86.354218-10.932797.456671.91378754.84745
1992q2 GC13.57965-1.018787.87.753689-10.932796.953330.53266849.87881
1992q3 GC12.84634-4.754247.88.153656-10.932796.193340.23629743.70992
1992q4 GC13.24004-0.503527.89.093291-10.932799.413330.08164524.333333.98803
1993q1 GC14.030251.1141978.88.469748-11.939498.86333-4.8013624.540.69739
1993q2 GC14.97302-1.954438.86.906978-11.9394100.09330.00763123.8838.14705
1993q3 GC13.431182.1372728.87.028821-11.939496.89-1.1886422.4641.82566
1993q4 GC11.46988-4.075068.88.780123-11.939499.09333-0.4559522.2541.84963
1994q1 GC10.605341.7626428.88.687998-8.262498.036671.43814321.2151.1623
1994q2 GC10.21105-3.087088.89.288945-8.262499.033330.95405420.376743.89162
1994q3 GC11.27690.3577148.88.766434-8.262499.313.26111921.376738.12394
1994q4 GC10.22810.0686468.88.231898-8.2624101.25672.23699319.833336.85027
1995q1 GC10.53053-0.171668.36.596135-9.07015101.63332.68456618.583335.12799
1995q2 GC9.883596-3.749638.36.286404-9.07015103.73330.9137417.606736.55163
1995q3 GC8.761712-4.932388.36.041621-9.07015102.270.5431816.2138.7485
1995q4 GC8.3039270.0592638.35.679406-9.07015103.46334.13899615.436736.48309
1996q1 GC7.442498-1.6129496.057502-6.64392103.32332.21907815.166738.69093
1996q2 GC7.535429-4.8889595.764571-6.64392107.453.24472114.873336.04818
1996q3 GC6.980716-5.3226595.785951-6.64392107.083.15833414.433335.00152
1996q4 GC6.617866-1.42195.182135-6.64392109.06330.74471613.2634.7881
1997q1 GC7.45722-2.805538.93.21278-5.89343108.023.9096629.844.53544
1997q2 GC6.671446-4.698038.93.178554-5.89343108.21673.7634199.58333355.99662
1997q3 GC6.319599-6.278498.93.213735-5.89343106.082.8691879.4957.50151
1997q4 GC5.932034-0.527128.95.434633-5.89343109.963.75868810.1855.44655
1998q1 GC4.764303-3.0728710.67.435697-3.82035108.090.58558810.4433353.97635
1998q2 GC5.51124-3.3278210.65.855426-3.82035104.43.3649257.983.88277
1998q3 GC5.447586-4.190810.66.652414-3.82035105.85674.8333697.82666783.69607
1998q4 GC4.617391-0.4265510.66.015942-3.82035107.52334.3404147.75666777.61357
1999q1 GC3.911939-2.0485811.65.254728-3.09625108.334.0833396.1110.1376
1999q2 GC2.800396-4.6215511.65.899603-3.09625107.87673.0591755.9127.9723
1999q3 GC2.393171-7.2835611.66.406829-3.09625105.08674.4436176.566667164.8402
1999q4 GC2.854781-6.8833111.65.911885-3.09625104.60331.8881366.666667182.8247
2000q1 GC2.939444-8.0595110.602923-3.7342101.645.6483366.433333167.5415
2000q2 GC3.516715-7.39896110.743651-3.7342100.78674.9320966.133333144.3021
2000q3 GC3.115461-6.97504111.622139-3.734298.22.0391316.066667127.1999
2000q4 GC3.708155-8.34171111.314079-3.734299.384.9714835.8110.3761
2001q1 GC3.128195-5.9963710.51.618072-4.44551100.544.8254215.326667100
2001q2 GC2.68716-5.9687510.51.907906-4.44551101.01334.4376035.4795.52375
2001q3 GC2.631445-7.854410.51.636355-4.44551100.18334.19635.38666780.20731
2001q4 GC2.287095-8.8278210.51.155439-4.44551102.29334.1251985.03333380.15099
2002q1 GC4.057519-6.066239.8-0.69505-4.80563102.12333.7664285.35333375.75347
2002q2 GC3.671781-6.939349.8-0.22631-4.80563103.983.8775285.46333368.47961
2002q3 GC3.443734-3.450949.8-0.0864-4.80563103.53333.8176134.96333362.73789
2002q4 GC3.362477-9.488179.8-0.25354-4.80563105.98673.8553444.7154.39096
2003q1 GC3.712858-6.740610-1.02929-5.75334107.77334.7463264.3148.07734
2003q2 GC3.129773-6.3487910-0.76521-5.75334111.134.7741764.0750.99581
2003q3 GC3.251119-4.0365510-1.11189-5.75334108.95.0553044.24333361.47617
2003q4 GC3.528328-9.1824410-1.3788-5.75334111.46675.0723584.44666762.36549
2004q1 GC2.207689-5.524889.5-0.14419-7.41477112.22334.6912784.29666769.80656
2004q2 GC3.101836-5.937779.5-1.01977-7.41477112.434.5887624.46333368.70468
2004q3 GC3.916609-3.139949.5-1.80031-7.41477110.93674.362394.31333465.08614
2004q4 GC4.17416-8.567189.5-2.01056-7.41477113.82334.2690323.9573.41035
2005q1 GC3.577044-7.520429.3-1.43671-5.22081113.65333.7953173.76666782.59688
2005q2 GC3.905417-6.016859.3-1.78082-5.22081113.92333.7961123.681.10572
2005q3 GC2.691889-5.382259.3-0.56156-5.22081112.04333.7327543.4189.97923
2005q4 GC2.722074-10.53319.3-0.37861-5.22081113.64333.7258983.56333393.87155
2006q1 GC3.543777-13.53748.7-0.93221-3.07459113.19673.9437213.773333109.9444
2006q2 GC2.748322-11.07988.70.141178-3.07459115.04334.0447674.28102.9419
2006q3 GC3.771988-7.350278.7-0.55062-3.07459114.37334.2428494.193333101.2018
2006q4 GC3.319594-12.38638.70.274873-3.07459116.21674.3681654.033333111.06
2007q1 GC3.439385-14.01068.10.380948-3.74762116.124.4768244.26119.5608
2007q2 GC3.001698-12.88828.11.063136-3.74762117.944.0661194.57125.4224
2007q3 GC2.384235-11.5428.12.116266-3.74762117.21673.9195134.656667128.0036
2007q4 GC2.550042-18.07998.12.174724-3.74762120.343.4019454.513333132.2379
2008q1 GC3.1638251.316175-2.83941121.133.1755274.393333104.4137
2008q2 GC3.0608071.799659-2.83941124.29673.5158094.81666798.91383

Figure 5.  Italy

Data for Figure 5 immediately follows

Data for Figure 5

TIME COUNTRYINFLATIONCURRACCTPERGDPUNEMPRATEREALINTRATEFISCBALPERGDPREALEFFEXRATEGDP4QCHANGEBONDRATEREALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1 IT3.994103-3.2332124.957.06101.8884
1970q2 IT3.885765-3.2332124.487.77333494.74144
1970q3 IT4.144036-3.2332124.618.08666786.35113
1970q4 IT3.975244-3.2332125.768.01333380.04685
1971q1 IT8.9994421.5164233.92204-2.66611-4.73139124.772.3011567.05666774.82819
1971q2 IT6.3444120.3857253.9352-0.74775-4.73139123.20671.9949266.9967.51132
1971q3 IT5.6879112.2442053.914499-0.09458-4.73139121.50331.4626017.12333363.62977
1971q4 IT5.9147591.1025224.233778-0.40809-4.73139120.72671.9137836.81666759.39648
1972q1 IT6.0921362.2704874.557052-0.48547-6.86338120.06333.5369576.67333357.88908
1972q2 IT5.9170172.4966824.604397-0.89368-6.86338120.383.0705346.47333358.97651
1972q3 IT5.3751070.6984534.914841-0.59177-6.86338121.25672.9555436.54333460.29989
1972q4 IT5.9521050.1713114.766084-0.66544-6.86338122.63672.8667296.67666762.01448
1973q1 IT8.509714-0.446824.776753-2.34305-6.383119.50672.6654216.7860.35135
1973q2 IT11.87515-2.003045.473915-5.74515-6.383110.05675.6634056.79666773.0463
1973q3 IT14.77848-2.078334.392504-7.15181-6.383107.26337.4564566.99333370.688
1973q4 IT13.19264-2.09974.126938-5.41264-6.383108.77679.395597.10666766.28029
1974q1 IT14.96938-4.366534.053973-5.68938-6.26175106.36679.305867.3765.56958
1974q2 IT16.43653-4.966983.624146-2.2732-6.26175104.27337.3037278.85666760.80548
1974q3 IT19.30224-4.983193.979457-1.73224-6.26175107.06334.33808710.6766745.08427
1974q4 IT22.64265-2.96014.106298-5.37598-6.26175106.48-0.1877111.5433338.05231
1975q1 IT19.16936-0.433774.014184-5.38269-10.3171106.1133-2.7503510.5666737.78999
1975q2 IT16.613171.2659114.423538-5.89317-10.3171107.2133-3.7524910.1366736.643
1975q3 IT13.5755-0.789764.248775-3.95217-10.3171107.8067-2.507659.98333429.76084
1975q4 IT11.94231-1.263864.560122-3.53231-10.3171108.19670.7189869.4728.14071
1976q1 IT11.51592-1.134624.69258-0.69592-7.9096999.014.22039210.1866729.12809
1976q2 IT16.20879-2.205124.9307241.771212-7.9096992.446.06332612.8324.42269
1976q3 IT17.22123-0.682074.966324-0.33789-7.9096996.727.1616113.2133325.05269
1976q4 IT19.85482-1.335765.106074-2.82816-7.9096996.896677.76729914.3966720.76582
1977q1 IT21.27517-0.221135.078325-5.36184-6.9845296.446.06041414.9866719.13103
1977q2 IT17.629760.7771025.169799-2.39976-6.9845296.686673.71067615.3216.945
1977q3 IT16.485051.6170685.476078-3.45172-6.9845297.503330.26122914.8366716.44789
1977q4 IT14.254321.4518165.322473-2.29098-6.9845297.28333-0.6053613.7033315.33937
1978q1 IT13.719171.5089515.2689-2.2225-8.5052695.733330.97611513.2414.75405
1978q2 IT12.811792.537055.246514-1.07846-8.5052696.476673.24950513.0366714.90736
1978q3 IT12.136861.809175.28223-0.59352-8.5052695.894.71408912.9933316.38902
1978q4 IT11.881352.0020125.453444-0.39802-8.5052694.463335.3732312.9417.17424
1979q1 IT11.647063.7415185.566397-0.28536-8.2617395.255.31976812.7317.12861
1979q2 IT12.819992.4401195.617437-1.46613-8.2617397.316674.32925812.7316.93849
1979q3 IT15.755370.7005175.908144-4.39924-8.2617398.576675.52003213.0318.14816
1979q4 IT18.29805-0.232425.539239-5.29361-8.26173100.91676.33431313.617.75476
1980q1 IT20.93849-1.182255.673204-4.52906-6.95872104.13675.1767814.2633318.52364
1980q2 IT20.38662-2.471425.374575-3.77885-6.95872103.10674.66259915.0419.16212
1980q3 IT19.08076-3.019275.69222-2.31353-6.95872104.23332.78709415.5766723.13618
1980q4 IT17.62121-2.506295.556226-0.22568-6.95872105.00671.11487116.1331.42663
1981q1 IT15.78658-3.920945.6109131.626749-10.8808104.040.64742416.5833339.54631
1981q2 IT16.99992-2.388956.2336582.561176-10.8808101.30670.63195718.9233346.99539
1981q3 IT17.26333-1.527346.3470042.431137-10.8808101.160.8381520.7133336.41209
1981q4 IT18.13166-1.788366.8813112.126106-10.8808100.540.99212321.2131.73418
1982q1 IT17.24739-2.394036.8828193.228174-10.0264101.51.00994620.5833331.95014
1982q2 IT15.5204-1.008616.7080034.952402-10.0264101.170.53055920.6466728.65042
1982q3 IT15.60084-2.099136.951584.162498-10.0264103.440.4307620.0424.98364
1982q4 IT16.45328-1.628327.1300572.45615-10.0264105.8767-0.668819.5924.28633
1983q1 IT15.277460.584867.3813593.833108-10.108109.45-0.3498919.0926.56656
1983q2 IT15.276570.3124947.7711753.018427-10.108108.8267-0.185818.2966726.2494
1983q3 IT13.490340.081687.6025014.378559-10.108108.33671.71279918.1066726.14295
1983q4 IT12.14285-0.288078.0192665.817148-10.108108.66334.19658117.7033323.84162
1984q1 IT12.179380.0668158.6311355.580051-11.4805108.83333.720916.3127.06087
1984q2 IT10.71965-0.947318.5494316.383687-11.4805109.684.16282715.6766725.5669
1984q3 IT9.971079-1.10938.3506156.932255-11.4805109.513.48832115.3666725.12559
1984q4 IT8.336997-1.057198.4855868.970769-11.4805109.51331.31177115.0433324.31874
1985q1 IT8.246115-1.470988.4697947.916086-12.3779110.04672.07818213.3566729.80956
1985q2 IT8.808911-1.228098.4103136.661622-12.3779108.92333.06896913.7932.73006
1985q3 IT9.016341-0.80078.5975125.683092-12.3779107.162.69620413.9939.45435
1985q4 IT8.966613-0.516928.9629995.688921-12.3779109.01333.34474713.7133344.24818
1986q1 IT8.472034-0.09459.5745877.974632-11.9385112.513.39588613.5533356.27399
1986q2 IT7.5490370.1422519.8710916.257097-11.9385113.45672.72838311.3366778.61548
1986q3 IT6.825991.2527189.7636945.12901-11.9385116.25672.92373410.7666777.86607
1986q4 IT6.146465-0.0238810.370165.219101-11.9385119.082.66889610.2153375.43163
1987q1 IT5.5733650.620249.9031096.412202-11.5219119.46332.4564459.88333371.23441
1987q2 IT5.645331-0.9013810.147385.150202-11.5219117.50673.31474410.22971.90996
1987q3 IT5.817888-0.1303410.442775.712112-11.5219117.00332.60979211.1666763.44719
1987q4 IT6.271496-0.8754710.495944.751838-11.5219118.35673.27029211.2926752.55711
1988q1 IT6.948333-0.8607510.528543.723367-11.0423118.11674.32248410.5676746.2527
1988q2 IT6.702746-0.0726510.474423.859487-11.0423116.143.45271710.7983346.94321
1988q3 IT6.468675-1.3058210.396824.280225-11.0423114.784.46990211.1073348.97771
1988q4 IT5.668115-1.0628310.4045.619652-11.0423116.76334.58648111.1096753.48104
1989q1 IT5.831965-2.0836410.329626.616501-11.4158117.793.74478311.8153.60553
1989q2 IT5.620961-1.0924710.346817.038739-11.4158118.62333.54298412.5763355.11947
1989q3 IT5.889313-0.904910.320696.765287-11.4158120.71673.27461113.0261.453
1989q4 IT6.68624-0.941199.8618656.031427-11.4158121.73333.11166813.7426757.67855
1990q1 IT7.39116-2.085739.4337615.521574-11.4401124.36332.89020813.9903356.89867
1990q2 IT8.009001-1.185788.9726214.020999-11.4401125.76332.76306713.47959.49207
1990q3 IT8.506969-1.031989.1255172.843031-11.4401125.38331.88624713.2252.7743
1990q4 IT8.375738-1.631418.976834.250929-11.4401125.22330.21066413.4556742.71711
1991q1 IT8.123569-1.517998.7227285.059764-11.3809126.37670.8078913.78341.93688
1991q2 IT7.385714-2.253618.6085074.33762-11.3809124.461.04427113.19545.29221
1991q3 IT6.850859-2.542678.4566594.992474-11.3809123.961.53597813.2673341.98467
1991q4 IT6.711671-1.854548.5827625.371662-11.3809125.17672.68757312.88337.60313
1992q1 IT5.600169-2.347298.6721856.619832-10.3915126.23332.13860612.6193338.35517
1992q2 IT4.963471-2.323218.5364087.796529-10.3915126.09331.16883612.7893335.3412
1992q3 IT4.114948-2.724378.79066212.31505-10.3915126.130.08872513.8066728.57595
1992q4 IT2.644599-2.064449.11984911.99873-10.3915112.7833-0.8118513.8476730.63684
1993q1 IT3.602315-0.299229.1197898.237685-10.0539104.3333-1.4690813.13134.49445
1993q2 IT3.8438310.3246069.8494426.992836-10.0539105.7167-1.2089412.4143336.91169
1993q3 IT4.0300290.84380110.124525.296638-10.0539104.1733-1.0196310.1093340.34742
1993q4 IT3.8549522.32908310.444694.938381-10.0539101.230.1232139.09339.62429
1994q1 IT3.143311.38094510.590795.286691-9.09005100.32330.9118478.96066743.94039
1994q2 IT3.2362680.99811310.774784.773732-9.09005102.81671.9097759.63150.99442
1994q3 IT3.4124650.84738810.869145.294202-9.09005100.43672.98176811.3873345.75804
1994q4 IT4.1181951.52345711.192354.765138-9.0900599.176673.1889712.0963341.57819
1995q1 IT3.1692522.45432611.363456.57408-7.4076694.723343.63419512.7376742.1779
1995q2 IT4.6590912.42450611.247436.127575-7.4076689.706672.7987712.6953340.2415
1995q3 IT5.7330931.96886211.471044.876907-7.4076695.486662.63758111.8036740.45315
1995q4 IT5.7597762.06714711.30184.92689-7.4076697.152.38451211.5866736.26995
1996q1 IT6.5918353.11449111.274813.358165-6.95916101.241.88992110.5453337.16448
1996q2 IT4.7167332.88044611.362144.3866-6.95916104.97331.2754689.86839.84986
1996q3 IT4.1136813.41575911.361274.552986-6.95916106.26330.8683369.35966737.14008
1996q4 IT3.4726673.01653311.401084.087333-6.95916107.46-0.144627.82966738.75119
1997q1 IT2.9167253.36095411.490494.423275-2.6736106.03670.097047.53566645.23893
1997q2 IT2.8613032.42466711.432584.085363-2.6736105.011.9868917.37366746.42358
1997q3 IT2.195572.65121911.321284.61443-2.6736103.892.1710326.5154.44149
1997q4 IT2.132212.86041711.477424.274457-2.6736105.61673.4333946.02166757.66389
1998q1 IT2.1991572.02037511.382683.747509-3.07149105.53672.4747745.33566773.40972
1998q2 IT2.4903172.49682111.587642.663016-3.07149106.15331.5221065.14487.90668
1998q3 IT2.1151181.83965911.505382.798216-3.07149107.24331.2880944.76282.5434
1998q4 IT3.5580281.22864911.533230.395305-3.07149107.9333-0.144454.28833374.23547
1999q1 IT2.0861281.20603811.35151.007205-1.77996106.280.5453144.08286.45501
1999q2 IT1.9150730.99086811.202060.721594-1.77996104.30330.7106484.33466788.39237
1999q3 IT2.14230.69469311.106820.561033-1.77996103.841.2720945.11666785.4139
1999q4 IT0.924661-0.1834810.816912.505339-1.77996103.05333.1272375.37666787.70118
2000q1 IT1.7214360.68514610.790031.820931-0.8632101.57673.635525.686666109.8024
2000q2 IT2.098621-0.9972910.405522.161746-0.8632100.08333.8090615.548666109.8604
2000q3 IT1.875974-0.7873310.089582.861626-0.863299.476674.0338925.593667113.2432
2000q4 IT1.871204-1.062589.6984923.15103-0.863298.853.7265025.475333110.6526
2001q1 IT2.3937490.4931719.529312.352518-3.10216101.99333.3856585.164667100
2001q2 IT2.751475-0.528869.3260141.843591-3.10216100.43332.3774715.37366793.92382
2001q3 IT3.052347-0.752849.0744591.215453-3.10216101.16331.1396295.27333481.30647
2001q4 IT3.501340.5066288.969776-0.05881-3.10216101.680.0407384.93666674.60016
2002q1 IT3.3959030.2503138.707558-0.03344-3.01191101.8133-0.365845.25066776.18922
2002q2 IT2.980462-1.049488.8850560.465005-3.01191102.560.4091065.35366774.29486
2002q3 IT3.281092-0.719018.7473960.076241-3.01191104.14670.7689084.85166660.82805
2002q4 IT3.163519-1.527238.678797-0.05459-3.01191105.09331.0001824.68066657.42989
2003q1 IT2.797568-1.510458.704705-0.114-3.54142107.13330.4813964.2454.79588
2003q2 IT3.070379-1.82788.515315-0.70581-3.54142109.34-0.302974.1657.82163
2003q3 IT3.735677-0.913638.591487-1.59644-3.54142109.3733-0.079684.33333359.4976
2003q4 IT2.665168-0.989618.402744-0.51563-3.54142110.340.0994324.4562.6459
2004q1 IT3.339-0.402148.315069-1.2755-3.56095111.45670.9067674.27603364.60803
2004q2 IT2.991589-0.946668.173579-0.90952-3.56095110.21671.6832534.462665.19093
2004q3 IT1.58027-0.581178.0106590.53603-3.56095110.90331.7151784.322664.37203
2004q4 IT2.510506-1.81787.963698-0.34691-3.56095111.721.1213723.97346769.12096
2005q1 IT1.622308-1.316827.9010730.518025-4.39653112.010.4392553.74236774.99308
2005q2 IT1.858595-1.541967.8425970.266005-4.39653110.76330.6450173.53693374.63943
2005q3 IT2.070981-1.951047.7439660.059353-4.39653110.42330.6512753.39146778.86396
2005q4 IT2.669369-1.673747.623195-0.3259-4.39653110.05330.9865463.5509278.45345
2006q1 IT2.073113-2.250397.2834010.538453-3.38537110.44671.8153123.721285.88808
2006q2 IT2.482336-2.362056.9212010.407164-3.38537111.061.6860144.26646785.3693
2006q3 IT1.739836-3.341196.6679521.481531-3.38537111.77671.585994.17185.27305
2006q4 IT0.617877-2.359226.5003382.97659-3.385371122.443764.025992.65474
2007q1 IT2.231076-2.139336.1897811.589257-1.53994112.54672.0515024.239795.77828
2007q2 IT1.617416-2.207486.1124082.447417-1.53994112.85331.6885244.54396798.68098
2007q3 IT2.415348-2.820416.2119292.085152-1.53994113.54331.5412594.63913392.11681
2007q4 IT2.696808-2.651486.3499062.027958-1.53994114.570.135874.52623388.43726
2008q1 IT2.117509-3.010716.6732162.362491-2.50607115.98330.3336034.37693374.9073
2008q2 IT3.610657-3.264246.8331961.249809-2.50607117.2033-0.21544.780171.07245

Figure 6.  New Zealand

Data for Figure 6 immediately follows

Data for Figure 6

TIME COUNTRYINFLATIONCURRACCTPERGDPUNEMPRATEREALINTRATEFISCBALPERGDPTERMSOFTRADE4QCHANGEGDP4QCHANGEBONDRATEREALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1 NZ0.1607815.536667261.6884
1970q2 NZ0.1413315.526667251.4914
1970q3 NZ0.1349245.476666232.6536
1970q4 NZ0.1414775.49204.9481
1971q1 NZ10.560240.133753-3.56025-2.95166-1.423625.51203.8637
1971q2 NZ14.360030.2812780.220442-7.360046.3888630.211325.51193.5367
1971q3 NZ12.567361.0288050.303531-5.567366.5574098.6939365.523334177.4511
1971q4 NZ9.1836560.4377360.421051-2.1836616.441953.117075.523334169.1586
1972q1 NZ18.21579-0.412570.505809-12.215818.88511-1.05315.53166.5159
1972q2 NZ23.066221.9824120.491069-17.066212.695138.876355.523334154.4419
1972q3 NZ3.1421092.2987660.5213852.85789113.25346-4.715925.51185.3966
1972q4 NZ-0.96316-0.285480.4712746.9631629.0932313.2624685.53195.0667
1973q1 NZ7.7607764.8265350.307896-1.7607815.8072513.653425.54186.3131
1973q2 NZ-1.651994.1289060.2250237.65199321.439512.6886945.586667195.4829
1973q3 NZ15.79296-1.256810.162002-9.7929620.524453.6141826.01198.0811
1973q4 NZ18.68902-0.266580.099991-12.68915.4185514.312736.05172.9999
1974q1 NZ1.629667-4.83650.0697967.0803331.4236876.4470026.046667178.6609
1974q2 NZ-1.67414-11.06250.07071110.85414-18.392714.765986.08185.2116
1974q3 NZ-0.1847-12.73040.07510111.3947-27.009820.700496.096667146.3453
1974q4 NZ-2.15129-15.9410.0982514.65129-33.16731.1986076.106667125.7143
1975q1 NZ4.994026-15.61150.2629495.215974-41.4915-2.415866.106667136.1133
1975q2 NZ15.54673-10.50940.308592-7.04673-27.1368-9.725826.103333138.7259
1975q3 NZ13.77189-7.349610.370309-6.51856-19.5708-6.868696.453333120.1731
1975q4 NZ16.00722-8.253140.383928-8.82056-18.6501-1.963136.643333122.0507
1976q1 NZ21.2351-10.09780.468437-13.94180.169390.8557647.48121.3769
1976q2 NZ21.99414-6.288370.399014-14.2841-0.286025.0303668.6109.6913
1976q3 NZ15.96369-5.989160.41506-7.097033.1279561.301478.58122.3613
1976q4 NZ12.58928-5.768980.402751-2.8359510.801135.5860258.706667116.1994
1977q1 NZ14.89523-5.515780.366986-1.518566.6481542.9605198.70333399.96578
1977q2 NZ10.55063-4.898910.3975953.6593685.9162670.9715588.6594.26595
1977q3 NZ16.24732-6.316010.561818-1.520652.836281-1.149559.5283.69324
1977q4 NZ21.79792-5.414561.00128-9.33792-1.31978-8.264310.0833376.87005
1978q1 NZ14.62136-2.107881.401133-2.70136-1.9621-13.79919.99333377.0666
1978q2 NZ8.354879-3.241621.7494492.561788-2.65425-5.45069.9984.44028
1978q3 NZ16.14405-4.318781.955163-5.994061.381808-6.209949.91666778.62577
1978q4 NZ16.77215-2.050811.724537-5.855486.806196-0.9345410.0166772.78498
1979q1 NZ11.36724-2.914821.7020781.4227577.7838258.55868610.0566775.11095
1979q2 NZ18.26354-5.618671.943295-3.8468713.35807-3.5846812.7433374.1268
1979q3 NZ15.29587-3.229481.853941-0.192546.9011660.43572112.3651772.41962
1979q4 NZ13.7389-2.686581.914212.4577661.5917530.69445912.9873.2802
1980q1 NZ17.40565-6.020041.99132-1.67565-4.33398-0.6994213.4866773.07698
1980q2 NZ16.48005-2.958452.34322-2.34005-13.06390.69706413.4666778.58023
1980q3 NZ11.78664-3.710642.9154351.710023-10.84290.73765913.2183.83492
1980q4 NZ13.15644-4.177243.2256450.943558-7.29190.84117412.9792.50294
1981q1 NZ15.25481-3.240083.405124-0.53148-3.107892.48725312.8866797.2437
1981q2 NZ15.89237-4.351963.488204-1.40237-0.969915.10473112.86667106.4332
1981q3 NZ16.21761-5.224033.418501-0.567610.613686.22708812.89667101.72
1981q4 NZ14.20375-6.333583.3811381.962918-1.879654.3837712.6895.99575
1982q1 NZ13.23168-7.329243.414753.931657-2.04632.35950512.8466799.18208
1982q2 NZ9.94326-9.211473.4244397.143406-1.765513.2393412.9690.16665
1982q3 NZ11.17236-6.511133.5891135.614308-2.029463.54066812.8884.75961
1982q4 NZ7.802793-5.392354.290069.190541-3.891014.07299812.8866780.19757
1983q1 NZ6.344702-2.270185.0236898.288631-4.90875-0.5622912.8033385.34722
1983q2 NZ8.530989-3.114655.5348436.285678-2.736772.13854713.84667100.0801
1983q3 NZ6.780645-4.889265.6435764.599355-1.47121.01931411.52115.3462
1983q4 NZ7.699239-5.863115.4242393.8140951.5885061.75138410.56132.3767
1984q1 NZ5.526581-7.326475.1237248.0167520.7365213.7362410.93667155.7484
1984q2 NZ5.343323-7.634174.6254279.440011.5567896.4399599.173333149.8559
1984q3 NZ5.708352-8.291664.5354849.841648-3.35165.63069213.53137.1837
1984q4 NZ7.122029-9.433514.1278999.091304-5.939156.97393316.8142.2106
1985q1 NZ11.98476-6.139263.7207019.365236-2.872440.98509917.29333143.2744
1985q2 NZ14.10166-6.95793.4248799.248343-3.645753.28864117.89333144.5652
1985q3 NZ15.29808-8.323933.4454810.485261.4633431.11535117.8155.5182
1985q4 NZ15.66569-6.549513.9173437.0709755.0707521.04212617.64333152.0311
1986q1 NZ13.18878-12.52854.1863219.534557-6.374570.757401-6.3668218.11176.1103
1986q2 NZ13.63088-5.094684.0780144.575789-6.374575.3998422.16156416.12201.307
1986q3 NZ13.2913-3.784434.07323.032033-6.374574.4386638.01259215.88333242.4011
1986q4 NZ16.25451-4.034924.1022592.792152-6.374573.210155-1.8129515.67667287.1624
1987q1 NZ16.97468-6.5899547.958649-2.0766711.723384.35707816.39667234.3499
1987q2 NZ13.91839-4.729324.120078.774939-2.076677.455558-0.4326515.73211.4036
1987q3 NZ11.64759-4.10544.0588246.902413-2.076676.337943-3.5899815.63333243.5109
1987q4 NZ7.505-4.260674.30424510.735-2.0766710.191242.8935615.06333154.2898
1988q1 NZ8.119152-1.617614.8099768.454182-4.566417.3827584.72839813.61333118.7739
1988q2 NZ6.473908-2.043685.3102639.516092-4.5664110.955161.51221812.84667123.7945
1988q3 NZ9.213829-0.295016.2350125.422837-4.5664112.696171.44100412.73119.2635
1988q4 NZ7.296630.1045276.1973527.07337-4.566413.4701192.83677513.27333112.992
1989q1 NZ4.451628-0.664677.0090639.055039-3.414940.4857191.49887113.23667113.7309
1989q2 NZ5.67505-3.773877.2904017.77495-3.414941.6835362.45310313.20667110.1659
1989q3 NZ3.407478-4.984267.2164959.859188-3.41494-0.71787-1.9862112.47127.4408
1989q4 NZ6.375546-5.483417.0823257.557787-3.414944.4995890.05661312.40333117.2678
1990q1 NZ5.720116-2.343636.9963818.086551-4.561085.825112-0.0213312.19102.5588
1990q2 NZ3.71396-4.091847.51799.91604-4.56108-2.65471-1.4007812.29333100.4477
1990q3 NZ3.327126-3.749687.87589510.95954-4.56108-2.912892.21742612.5533394.07479
1990q4 NZ-0.10616-2.586248.73959513.95283-4.56108-7.651641.78697312.7433372.32533
1991q1 NZ0.140553-2.51969.52662811.94945-3.48342-10.3417-2.2047811.6372.39246
1991q2 NZ0.609555-3.6001610.147499.817111-3.48342-4.1669-1.6771910.1933378.85699
1991q3 NZ0.258967-2.4063910.895179.071033-3.48342-4.05402-1.391249.7177.65364
1991q4 NZ1.230518-2.5350310.710066.782815-3.48342-2.13385-2.385478.90666782.45011
1992q1 NZ1.287755-4.6141610.653336.128911-3.03229-1.423161.1867449.1280.30984
1992q2 NZ1.725695-2.0031910.170495.164304-3.03229-2.962982.3830788.78333483.67052
1992q3 NZ0.087439-4.3918510.259436.105894-3.03229-0.99810.0541747.92333383.45259
1992q4 NZ2.148064-5.7505110.316534.271936-3.032292.4786970.1226117.7882.45477
1993q1 NZ3.759519-2.506239.8004693.787148-0.397865.1742071.8964177.784.48279
1993q2 NZ2.590712-3.307169.8599774.125955-0.397864.6680162.5532897.30666790.53835
1993q3 NZ3.990383-4.138199.233451.549617-0.397862.9108226.4470716.586667106.4189
1993q4 NZ0.861645-5.747229.1589864.655022-0.397861.8370667.4969196.143333119.4858
1994q1 NZ-0.37284-2.134359.0182655.2828443.0867151.1330367.7332635.93125.9267
1994q2 NZ0.76396-4.426348.3096195.3893733.0867151.4193476.6491697.213333116.2082
1994q3 NZ1.252382-3.319767.6923075.9576183.0867150.5333474.8735938.446667114.7518
1994q4 NZ2.69057-5.48097.3866825.9760973.0867151.9080764.8946288.913333110.2099
1995q1 NZ2.301213-5.023156.5399677.062122.9189182.5583123.871548.51108.159
1995q2 NZ2.033521-4.570856.1735267.0831462.9189180.6648394.792317.593333113.7566
1995q3 NZ1.655926-4.511296.0606067.3740742.9189180.0043174.8746367.776667113.7612
1995q4 NZ2.548834-5.956126.2159215.9844992.9189182.1157223.3913917.226666114.9293
1996q1 NZ3.215869-6.443976.1654955.4474642.9040250.2988833.0500997.366667113.9197
1996q2 NZ2.797678-5.790335.9581326.8923222.9040252.3840882.7504558.53111.4918
1996q3 NZ2.644919-4.802296.2101917.3184152.9040254.3655933.4454318.336667116.0157
1996q4 NZ1.293903-6.063376.0460147.5927632.904025-1.919183.7540817.34124.3293
1997q1 NZ0.236883-7.066826.4997337.2931171.6543550.434072.0406197.486667123.0301
1997q2 NZ0.671342-8.818686.564326.4853251.654355-4.113913.8497577.616667125.8228
1997q3 NZ1.026869-4.883296.7231347.0364641.654355-4.10143.3031586.913333132.7122
1997q4 NZ0.403427-4.696276.730267.483241.654355-0.361782.2296986.75121.987
1998q1 NZ1.037329-3.026897.139087.9093380.121627-0.891812.1500156.833333117.5507
1998q2 NZ0.267906-6.283117.6069738.8287610.121627-0.63532-0.310366.693333110.3413
1998q3 NZ0.190474-3.727697.4074076.5861930.121627-1.14399-0.345916.14666796.87186
1998q4 NZ1.563853-2.440837.6638483.0128140.121627-0.360291.5307955.476666101.856
1999q1 NZ-0.02149-4.688777.1466114.473361-0.15356-3.830233.8287885.662533114.229
1999q2 NZ1.071808-5.040026.9779643.609725-0.153560.9067714.1024666.1107113.66
1999q3 NZ0.681239-5.910956.7681014.127861-0.153560.462955.4446936.7759112.6592
1999q4 NZ-0.22719-8.986886.2140995.597621-0.15356-0.58794.8076057.099867113.8465
2000q1 NZ1.837703-5.882786.2761514.1168981.646571-0.805215.6761687.281933108.3329
2000q2 NZ1.116007-5.411266.1288635.599761.646571-3.118584.2799286.930367106.5776
2000q3 NZ2.301632-5.34145.8091294.4383671.6465710.0982432.7335286.713233106.8608
2000q4 NZ4.699104-3.961015.6127711.9700631.646571-0.657832.4473156.48136796.58554
2001q1 NZ4.519197-3.207735.3175011.9015032.1443186.2851380.120666.017066100
2001q2 NZ5.882329-1.88225.271238-0.025062.1443187.1080782.835266.501167101.7864
2001q3 NZ3.406005-2.279655.2093972.3241292.1443183.1229442.68556.61486799.5505
2001q4 NZ2.864586-3.722285.3958652.0980142.1443183.0591283.9504016.440233100.3993
2002q1 NZ3.014387-5.135115.1948052.0196473.248181-1.077634.486646.691667103.0274
2002q2 NZ0.406653-2.298235.1243785.4147473.248181-1.604813.381016.771767104.2555
2002q3 NZ2.457522-3.978495.4094293.4530123.248181-1.533874.926566.34573399.88941
2002q4 NZ-1.30084-4.142834.9034187.1998023.248181-1.486555.5355556.296267101.011
2003q1 NZ-0.98296-3.232384.8395066.811363.7967850.416155.5294325.969798.08836
2003q2 NZ0.806895-4.852344.7105014.6392723.7967854.9675714.7472755.602167104.6007
2003q3 NZ1.389249-4.524394.4239183.7332513.7967853.9579734.3164495.803767107.0522
2003q4 NZ4.352754-4.505554.6489110.9411463.7967858.3972882.669146.090667111.609
2004q1 NZ3.941256-5.256864.1485771.5519444.2634547.2223634.2439955.860567114.5315
2004q2 NZ4.064413-5.579444.0747841.7881214.2634543.5328825.0179346.1953116.9055
2004q3 NZ3.692947-7.676873.8040892.7469194.2634544.9060963.9666926.1801121.0364
2004q4 NZ3.136867-6.988553.6551083.5909664.2634542.1073123.6204996.0278125.9565
2005q1 NZ2.188267-7.209033.790364.6712674.4927212.4043332.0563826.0353131.2882
2005q2 NZ2.505853-8.173233.6933154.537584.4927210.6685822.9853755.835667125.4598
2005q3 NZ1.08473-9.515343.6472765.9645044.492721-0.181233.2052055.742933134.9051
2005q4 NZ1.326672-9.126133.6472766.1643954.492721-1.991862.5027225.8871129.0771
2006q1 NZ2.093266-10.32813.8724375.4592683.732765-4.198623.0602925.712934130.306
2006q2 NZ1.419828-8.351383.5892786.0574383.732765-3.964871.5297075.795633133.4298
2006q3 NZ3.055193-7.443813.7693014.4564073.732765-2.895741.742965.8397126.8074
2006q4 NZ2.989064-8.889493.7727274.655273.732765-0.288863.3686155.773033136.9649
2007q1 NZ3.133078-8.61713.7219734.6421563.6968311.9098852.9692685.9131141.8842
2007q2 NZ4.226906-8.489043.5810213.9043943.6968315.2719473.438676.313433143.176
2007q3 NZ3.780979-8.710283.5426014.8744213.6968318.1103472.9652146.443333137.3975
2007q4 NZ5.518546-7.045363.3837933.2492543.69683110.670912.3344496.384233130.2022
2008q1 NZ5.673299-7.787123.687053.15082.49244611.525980.9432666.349267110.948
2008q2 NZ3.600973-10.31763.9415415.1498612.4924464.496984-0.349766.440033106.2983

Figure 7.  Portugal

Data for Figure 7 immediately follows

Data for Figure 7

TIME COUNTRYINFLATIONCURRACCTPERGDPUNEMPRATEREALINTRATEFISCBALPERGDPREALEFFEXRATEGDP4QCHANGEBONDRATEREALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1 PT5.90896692.556
1970q2 PT4.81650590.703336.5
1970q3 PT3.68090289.503336.75
1970q4 PT2.54901589.426676.75
1971q1 PT3.2915532.5507411.30308990.286677.3611226.916667
1971q2 PT4.5087382.5821420.16001289.773336.3367017
1971q3 PT5.4209962.540993-0.7522590.873345.9975947
1971q4 PT6.2375442.531311-1.5687993.296.028527
1972q1 PT6.9485522.536866-2.279891.386676.4118647
1972q2 PT7.4708192.579985-2.8020792.033337.0479397
1972q3 PT7.8001472.538925-3.131489.976677.9174287
1972q4 PT7.7044282.548759-3.0356889.716679.3629317
1973q1 PT7.2039392.551482-2.5351991.6866711.330677.25
1973q2 PT7.7116362.588131-3.0428991.4611.792447.25
1973q3 PT9.1752942.549496-4.5065493.0833410.853547.25
1973q4 PT11.845832.579333-7.1770992.503338.5843647.25
1974q1 PT15.661872.461741-10.7708-3.297.216675.057887.75
1974q2 PT17.756662.390249-12.8656-3.2101.422.1833897.75
1974q3 PT18.345272.262384-12.5649-3.2103.5533-0.12088.916667
1974q4 PT17.692992.206565-11.468-3.2105.66-2.52449.5
1975q1 PT15.97364-1.900712.896211-8.85936-7.1104.8-5.0861910.5
1975q2 PT15.09567-3.509913.609614-7.98138-7.1105.76-5.9067210.5
1975q3 PT14.77098-5.158664.275107-7.6567-7.1104.75-4.9362910.5
1975q4 PT14.21811-5.524364.982006-7.10382-7.1105.3367-1.8400710.5
1976q1 PT13.27172-6.346535.438432-4.8235-10.2110.98673.36534410.75
1976q2 PT13.5296-4.816355.91322-5.08139-10.2103.04336.72900110.75
1976q3 PT14.95341-6.906956.378401-6.50519-10.2101.10678.23757311.25
1976q4 PT17.80026-7.949256.852674-9.35204-10.2104.16338.28359811.25
1977q1 PT21.92805-5.029057.113524-13.0352-7.599.523336.93209411.75
1977q2 PT24.00091-6.966787.380044-14.2188-7.595.026665.85587412.75
1977q3 PT24.35698-4.029077.666828-13.3891-7.5945.03059914.16667
1977q4 PT23.5137-2.59977.949315-10.1744-7.591.214.05112217
1978q1 PT21.74287-2.631578.078596-8.40359-7.2946790.022.91539117.53333
1978q2 PT20.55016-2.368598.225817-4.83945-7.2946787.536672.40588318.4
1978q3 PT19.74541-2.651938.388859-2.84898-7.2946782.513342.50716519.96667
1978q4 PT18.89428-0.402258.517219-1.99785-7.2946782.376663.27388720.06667
1979q1 PT17.917840.2288648.507153-1.02141-6.1651780.84.68682720.33333
1979q2 PT17.447150.8002148.556241-0.55072-6.1651781.886675.54655420.1
1979q3 PT17.469541.3662398.612459-0.57311-6.1651780.485.86752819.96667
1979q4 PT18.10902-2.920618.557135-1.21259-6.1651781.195.82026319.66667
1980q1 PT19.30257-2.152468.38129-2.40614-7.3637682.826675.41936719.86667
1980q2 PT19.60532-2.379958.408738-2.70889-7.3637683.566674.90500319.83333
1980q3 PT19.17688-4.000188.424776-2.28045-7.3637682.413334.27823519.83333
1980q4 PT18.1061-4.727648.156955-1.20967-7.3637682.983333.38072620.06667
1981q1 PT16.52937-14.38737.8922990.367064-8.8831786.216672.2150119.86667
1981q2 PT15.87798-14.65388.1083941.018445-8.8831788.323331.50752920.13333
1981q3 PT15.97452-13.32238.2794321.21834-8.8831790.276661.24860620.8
1981q4 PT16.54559-17.96137.8744590.795487-8.8831790.553341.45703721.76667
1982q1 PT17.47269-10.38257.474865-0.13162-7.2870993.253332.12613321.76667
1982q2 PT18.32052-12.61087.950330.206266-7.2870992.512.37850323.43333
1982q3 PT19.13414-11.60648.367414-0.0145-7.2870983.862.2194923.63333
1982q4 PT20.10582-8.610697.758163-0.98618-7.2870983.026661.72997923.8
1983q1 PT21.25133-7.913137.310878-2.13169-5.0458685.533330.91358622.43333
1983q2 PT21.98257-6.303137.5252891.138859-5.0458685.10.17483827
1983q3 PT22.35494-4.088489.0191041.359348-5.0458678.47667-0.4911227.86667
1983q4 PT22.491-4.882248.2515922.409004-5.0458681.23-1.2921528.9
1984q1 PT22.4554-2.731117.8416052.444597-5.4434682.69-2.2350929.2
1984q2 PT22.33591-2.992878.5542142.564085-5.4434683.68333-2.4893929.06667
1984q3 PT22.03983-1.210999.573782.860165-5.4434685.01667-2.046730.4
1984q4 PT21.35423-2.823218.8285733.545767-5.4434684.08667-0.8171930.3
1985q1 PT20.22049-1.321558.1560874.086649-8.6630886.876661.19737930.4
1985q2 PT19.500071.4046348.833364.510645-8.6630886.163332.62173330.1
1985q3 PT19.214490.8556939.4779212.659086-8.6630884.113.45030828.5
1985q4 PT19.575064.0315778.767869-0.19173-8.6630883.113333.78592127.13333
1986q1 PT20.539182.8897358.755532-2.52918-7.3233585.046673.63678624.86667
1986q2 PT20.116353.3091398.87375-4.77302-7.3233585.106673.75447723.4
1986q3 PT18.4883.4118439.65029-3.298-7.3233582.684.13066120.73333
1986q4 PT15.64292.8373947.633549-1.93623-7.3233582.124.68862420.7
1987q1 PT11.73532.5705167.6017481.661366-6.6102982.773335.42056320.06667
1987q2 PT9.4435250.4142617.1544463.999808-6.6102982.363336.00783119.06667
1987q3 PT8.5760040.3697728.1937976.093996-6.6102981.426676.45374719.23333
1987q4 PT8.8619860.6421086.0546975.091347-6.6102981.293336.82714218.43333
1988q1 PT10.17186-1.223965.911113.241471-3.4256982.023337.1297717.886.04201
1988q2 PT10.81007-1.481926.1573381.989926-3.4256981.966677.28157317.169.62218
1988q3 PT10.85845-2.057516.4245772.104882-3.4256982.637.29019616.7333363.04956
1988q4 PT10.47825-2.71965.2093072.218421-3.4256983.986667.18472116.8666760.17781
1989q1 PT9.7320890.8717065.2268292.764578-2.8185585.596.97125217.960.51029
1989q2 PT9.556842-0.344315.036254.831683-2.8185585.703336.605319.1666757.1966
1989q3 PT9.898048-0.376495.954556.205284-2.8185586.636676.09269619.8333362.14028
1989q4 PT10.799950.9600644.6090715.746715-2.8185586.896675.33754920.473.50587
1990q1 PT12.218080.3342775.1221535.061919-6.0835389.113334.34682820.7666764.7925
1990q2 PT12.81759-0.152534.2481783.759074-6.0835390.433333.76504820.1333361.21092
1990q3 PT12.659270.5757175.3136224.050733-6.0835391.243.57770420.9666754.17298
1990q4 PT11.75897-1.63384.6896235.284363-6.0835393.796673.8184421.444.06968
1991q1 PT10.16637-1.901883.9828927.29696-6.9360195.873344.47382222.544.49698
1991q2 PT9.329039-0.727574.3663278.464294-6.9360196.203334.6442245.11229
1991q3 PT9.2045170.0872984.6544168.722149-6.9360198.253334.34311220.8666742.37588
1991q4 PT9.796256-0.635234.1618147.97041-6.9360198.166663.65325219.7666738.24965
1992q1 PT11.062392.3067883.6096626.23761-4.16384100.96672.58394421.6666735.37398
1992q2 PT11.461390.8618913.9821885.068609-4.16384106.111.58204421.1333336.04348
1992q3 PT11.06735-2.156194.2797784.145983-4.16384106.41670.6380520.433.8435
1992q4 PT9.926733-1.689784.5314165.4866-4.16384106.8133-0.4569619.3333329.84183
1993q1 PT8.092528-1.241574.6441686.014247-7.50315106.2133-1.712871930.64226
1993q2 PT7.0179931.433625.3795277.408564-7.50315103.4067-2.3578718.4666732.40065
1993q3 PT6.6179650.3803235.7589524.235368-7.5031598.58-2.3857710.2566738.74816
1993q4 PT6.7818120.843876.2435784.014855-7.5031598.36667-1.801619.28333441.89991
1994q1 PT7.452143-3.898836.431672.780524-7.249898.91333-0.598878.82666747.40294
1994q2 PT7.5255581.7833256.8388824.689775-7.249898.546670.48913610.0244.79946
1994q3 PT7.037566-3.500766.9843884.7311-7.2498100.731.45238611.543.25558
1994q4 PT6.048494-3.60237.1315914.161506-7.2498101.34672.48628411.5666744.47282
1995q1 PT4.081074-0.376297.1030126.445926-5.0352103.794.37773911.8233342.65464
1995q2 PT3.699991-0.45977.1727476.500342-5.0352103.644.25282911.9943.03809
1995q3 PT2.966674-1.320147.0792826.370326-5.0352103.17334.12356811.3833341.45795
1995q4 PT2.7841111.581527.252096.298223-5.0352103.13674.02433810.6633341.00316
1996q1 PT3.493752-3.337477.2001164.672915-4.47321103.13332.6754719.4543.42016
1996q2 PT2.0826-4.231117.4516185.250733-4.47321103.37333.6979318.9746.35303
1996q3 PT2.244043-3.326157.303584.98929-4.47321104.33334.3449738.5848.8802
1996q4 PT2.440273-5.778557.0591624.29306-4.47321104.44673.4867737.23666750.72829
1997q1 PT3.328845-5.897537.1103692.904488-3.51154103.814.232526.7559.88919
1997q2 PT3.777185-4.929216.6409132.089482-3.51154102.99674.142966.56666766.7626
1997q3 PT4.007281-5.580636.8875971.559385-3.51154100.54333.6639996.24666678.89307
1997q4 PT3.86465-7.122976.3323391.43535-3.51154101.20674.3653355.8780.47272
1998q1 PT3.174653-6.874775.8461841.525347-3.39215101.244.2622315.323333101.5311
1998q2 PT4.022749-6.764254.5580220.443918-3.39215102.43674.0904095.136667125.3454
1998q3 PT3.678039-6.143724.6936350.655295-3.39215103.45335.1458074.723333112.6176
1998q4 PT3.81668-8.254944.823887-0.08335-3.39215104.48335.4261884.32666797.66076
1999q1 PT3.485403-7.417814.768371-0.39207-2.79159103.424.7848154.053333102.5642
1999q2 PT3.223557-7.192174.502844-0.58689-2.79159102.71674.3551894.3794.3199
1999q3 PT2.981027-9.234714.228632-0.27769-2.79159101.88333.3296995.20666691.38458
1999q4 PT3.179507-9.945954.2111850.250493-2.79159101.44332.6466575.4899.23627
2000q1 PT2.373918-10.91014.3878661.168448-2.9659599.893.8752075.733333124.2702
2000q2 PT3.235261-11.27913.7488871.025105-2.96595100.10673.0631915.58115.1144
2000q3 PT3.311739-9.615363.9568691.425861-2.96595100.03334.3681575.603333113.4566
2000q4 PT2.996516-9.221333.7369752.025718-2.9659599.963334.0809315.463333103.0493
2001q1 PT3.906294-9.862564.1692770.839973-4.32094102.28671.881255.13100
2001q2 PT2.990767-10.96013.8541171.6043-4.32094101.913.0020025.35666788.62659
2001q3 PT3.356501-11.02063.9836280.911299-4.32094102.361.2189025.2574.41977
2001q4 PT4.145242-7.817444.140301-0.70271-4.32094103.28331.8926934.89666775.90075
2002q1 PT3.374851-8.979424.411434-0.01238-2.88935103.12672.1849235.20666675.55597
2002q2 PT3.816719-8.391034.52236-0.37125-2.88935104.20331.8506785.3572.43709
2002q3 PT4.369564-8.091215.058963-1.01223-2.88935105.42670.4313814.86666761.27095
2002q4 PT3.985382-6.933386.116997-0.87645-2.88935106.41-1.442894.60333357.0843
2003q1 PT3.642672-5.511196.368957-0.95911-2.95305107.4767-1.156914.13133357.2641
2003q2 PT3.635056-6.852316.152654-1.27049-2.95305109.3167-1.974343.95633357.85037
2003q3 PT2.591569-5.913456.171749-0.45234-2.95305108.96-0.592794.21833360.1124
2003q4 PT2.539805-6.126986.542331-0.39027-2.95305109.770.5023044.41433364.44
2004q1 PT2.313776-6.408456.404059-0.25028-3.38324110.02331.2726324.14566773.21794
2004q2 PT2.043039-6.731236.3859520.039028-3.38324109.73672.0556034.37966775.27245
2004q3 PT2.715608-8.635336.877242-0.59931-3.38324109.72671.3763834.21733373.6249
2004q4 PT2.601485-8.497857.106395-0.43789-3.38324110.63671.3117643.83376.26731
2005q1 PT2.757109-9.540757.534146-0.61678-6.0509110.36330.3024533.60280.80935
2005q2 PT2.56198-9.406117.254592-0.43738-6.0509109.81331.0994113.34866779.2458
2005q3 PT2.384828-9.616597.768482-0.25449-6.0509109.78670.8417843.32479.85601
2005q4 PT2.298252-9.364558.0582980.045215-6.0509110.00331.3740713.47783.9595
2006q1 PT2.549329-11.2817.7716080.062238-3.94135110.30331.551283.60795.6282
2006q2 PT3.204305-9.610937.299953-0.31481-3.94135111.30330.8030214.066100.7479
2006q3 PT2.71932-10.62357.4878020.502047-3.94135111.17671.5512364.044667101.9166
2006q4 PT2.697541-8.880098.232950.896926-3.94135111.641.5310893.941109.6219
2007q1 PT3.345714-8.609758.4294560.474619-2.6516111.952.0262424.157119.863
2007q2 PT2.761848-8.303557.9205251.302985-2.6516113.04671.873894.496131.225
2007q3 PT2.63271-11.00497.929061.86779-2.6516112.561.7564844.595333134.353
2007q4 PT2.878798-11.3777.859021.845969-2.6516113.11.9194654.448333131.7063
2008q1 PT2.162506-11.19347.6491772.317494-2.23931113.74330.902684.312333113.0151
2008q2 PT1.877199-11.74857.3125922.983267-2.23931114.80670.7111724.695110.9432

Figure 8.  Spain

Data for Figure 8 immediately follows

Data for Figure 8

TIME COUNTRYINFLATIONCURRACCTPERGDPUNEMPRATEREALINTRATEFISCBALPERGDPREALEFFEXRATEGDP4QCHANGEBONDRATEREALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1 SP0.59459383.898.695001138.4151
1970q2 SP0.59459383.276668.988284121.2645
1970q3 SP0.59459385.2733310.2333118.8766
1970q4 SP0.59459385.7933310.21317115.2915
1971q1 SP6.72132-0.9979385.582.2323369.86526114.8145
1971q2 SP7.234543-0.9979385.716674.0054059.557599113.4832
1971q3 SP7.869523-0.9979384.486665.3188129.928517117.0609
1971q4 SP8.076802-0.9979385.616676.5264339.666862118.668
1972q1 SP7.8922840.07130585.927.3580339.344825127.8501
1972q2 SP7.9026990.07130586.57.7615858.864645139.9137
1972q3 SP8.1662670.07130589.458.1114929.201058144.5942
1972q4 SP8.6601781.090.07130590.663338.0796018.988284146.7921
1973q1 SP8.1780871.191.18652490.403348.2940319.031414162.2006
1973q2 SP10.115611.191.18652490.796677.7257579.129175163.3837
1973q3 SP12.233411.391.18652489.333347.190829.244188159.3014
1973q4 SP14.039011.391.18652493.846666.8611989.534596149.229
1974q1 SP15.921891.29-8.04389-0.0394595.296676.72134510.33394152.7011
1974q2 SP15.668651.39-2.46735-0.0394593.993336.20993310.75949152.8449
1974q3 SP14.007231.89-1.81424-0.0394596.793335.27498611.26267135.5344
1974q4 SP13.959121.79-8.78945-0.0394597.513343.70908711.60483114.0611
1975q1 SP14.12896-3.746332.29-7.30629-0.2176495.303341.52184511.76873112.8189
1975q2 SP15.31665-3.743022.39-9.30932-0.2176495.323330.18307511.70547104.7125
1975q3 SP16.73015-3.358642.79-10.4625-0.2176499.27666-0.0842511.4495793.83157
1975q4 SP15.77275-2.986883.39-8.08975-0.2176499.643330.54999311.317396.48906
1976q1 SP14.56165-2.767823.49-3.82865-0.6747995.963332.04210911.0211486.02125
1976q2 SP14.0731-4.69913.79-5.63143-0.6747997.426673.27283610.8313783.46685
1976q3 SP14.92799-4.547833.59-1.69569-0.6747998.283333.80218110.8601272.34742
1976q4 SP17.14524-3.896633.752713-9.68891-0.6747999.443343.86676310.2678161.9424
1977q1 SP19.50766-2.120453.820534-5.85399-1.09443102.29333.66693810.1642953.46412
1977q2 SP21.23004-3.629693.892086-7.74137-1.09443104.52672.97191410.1815547.76891
1977q3 SP21.87604-0.520434.356364-5.23104-1.0944391.352.33842510.1499237.08962
1977q4 SP21.33623-0.804434.53345-3.03391-1.0944392.386672.23929110.8227531.59158
1978q1 SP20.33577-0.152515.030486-9.77944-2.5845493.122.07249211.840528.81568
1978q2 SP19.196010.8656185.395398-5.50101-2.5845495.073331.82228412.0646130.03122
1978q3 SP18.277951.326155.7760065.710711-2.58454100.40331.3677611.3135528.79504
1978q4 SP17.628390.9104376.0942114.493607-2.58454104.940.55382312.5429824.96721
1979q1 SP16.90191.2800326.359317-3.07023-2.47665108.56-0.2280112.6805623.34904
1979q2 SP16.090761.6283466.6861270.445568-2.47665115.92-0.2750813.0907222.19146
1979q3 SP15.20622-0.543867.1457541.559439-2.47665115.060.08791813.0577320.11537
1979q4 SP14.47211-0.765327.6517980.474559-2.47665114.990.58692614.4077717.35593
1980q1 SP14.40345-2.216618.3648051.245221-2.9824114.71671.41384615.5418.15696
1980q2 SP12.76026-2.243469.1397765.462069-2.9824109.521.59784515.6466716.15729
1980q3 SP12.11517-3.659759.4570853.488166-2.9824107.21670.96032516.1066717.03564
1980q4 SP11.30249-1.6774710.064595.313838-2.9824106.41331.18776316.5516.70185
1981q1 SP10.07157-2.9357710.612216.064429-4.28623105.0967-0.0474416.2166717.98726
1981q2 SP11.87073-3.5872711.260624.352265-4.28623105.44-0.4975515.7866719.31956
1981q3 SP11.87329-1.1771911.682774.563039-4.28623105.270.34346515.2721.11676
1981q4 SP12.65069-2.880412.209413.264647-4.28623103.9767-0.3347715.9733318.52467
1982q1 SP13.28901-2.4682612.386231.908327-6.00252105.23670.64378415.818.17963
1982q2 SP12.57253-2.4682612.669373.853798-6.00252105.19331.1336321616.68309
1982q3 SP12.66325-2.4682613.239123.486414-6.00252106.381.36088316.0633314.29362
1982q4 SP12.42177-2.4682613.58094.930888-6.00252102.37671.81264816.0866713.32364
1983q1 SP12.0717-3.1237113.882234.722967-5.175794.681.7666915.6766713.43496
1983q2 SP11.5713-1.986613.968618.607021-5.175792.482.00333216.7066714.1557
1983q3 SP11.01819-1.2233314.3160711.69847-5.175790.451.47933317.4414.11143
1983q4 SP10.35682-0.5634514.7532310.15183-5.175791.043331.77150217.8133314.48301
1984q1 SP10.554030.52722315.863167.449295-5.8219494.006672.23050517.1133316.02202
1984q2 SP10.718661.96087516.335874.626-5.8219495.786671.30603117.4116.18842
1984q3 SP10.160771.00808216.705883.342228-5.8219496.072.02621716.7518.70813
1984q4 SP9.870360.80697717.443582.869973-5.8219497.016671.50973114.8166718.43061
1985q1 SP8.6490360.56390517.526113.558297-7.3206898.951.79573513.2933320.31863
1985q2 SP7.8910580.70961317.920435.321276-7.3206898.212.0105313.5866719.43748
1985q3 SP8.3079011.80952617.834174.720765-7.3206896.882.17471814.2519.22738
1985q4 SP8.098142.89955617.811782.351193-7.3206895.346663.18908612.3421.86944
1986q1 SP10.366392.05681917.72380.62994-6.3556298.953332.36093112.3133327.25334
1986q2 SP10.592581.64286817.468351.395087-6.3556299.354.8085311.4638.02737
1986q3 SP10.203071.59419717.174961.871594-6.35562101.98333.06966911.3766739.65477
1986q4 SP10.174371.08922117.080351.397961-6.35562101.352.5645210.2666740.13807
1987q1 SP6.3411720.79677717.245966.840828-3.3668699.786674.31036610.7649.48034
1987q2 SP5.7415680.58502916.7601412.65243-3.3668699.453333.44170912.8946.42953
1987q3 SP5.622077-0.0691716.4298111.46458-3.36686103.08676.19340713.9166758.15529
1987q4 SP5.323569-1.3159815.379089.302097-3.36686106.37.58172813.6866748.01978
1988q1 SP5.868042-0.4648614.944276.064291-3.41715105.99675.87525612.2033349.62606
1988q2 SP6.011734-0.4294714.895624.805599-3.41715106.37675.60604211.0766754.21349
1988q3 SP5.59405-1.135614.646015.308617-3.41715106.70675.34872711.2066754.79977
1988q4 SP5.677021-1.9585613.664537.27198-3.41715108.813.099112.4952.89985
1989q1 SP6.579399-1.9448512.982448.028934-2.90257113.70675.10883513.3266750.90902
1989q2 SP6.576996-2.8891112.466438.23667-2.90257112.054.87235413.6366754.94733
1989q3 SP6.847131-3.4486112.287048.453201-2.90257114.88334.41628513.33955.82524
1989q4 SP6.690709-2.5361212.615868.732292-2.90257115.87674.47467314.153.52595
1990q1 SP7.065005-3.6966112.239718.446995-4.13589117.73673.01612814.6566747.78141
1990q2 SP7.01258-3.3538612.225717.998754-4.13589120.983.72219614.6366746.81591
1990q3 SP7.001514-2.9626412.000118.060152-4.13589123.72672.09250214.7533343.87575
1990q4 SP7.118992-3.7957711.960617.902341-4.13589122.79675.97057714.6633337.54991
1991q1 SP6.585022-3.1367911.752987.960978-4.82627124.31333.15790613.9333340.21426
1991q2 SP6.602018-3.7108111.961326.362316-4.82627121.38332.68445812.1033344.61886
1991q3 SP6.630098-3.8852812.536256.013902-4.82627121.44673.73580411.9441.99783
1991q4 SP7.060448-3.5143512.656415.692219-4.82627122.080.52015111.4653338.19885
1992q1 SP7.474483-3.6813213.206695.259183-3.95593124.323.45336810.8383338.21727
1992q2 SP6.910226-4.4553912.999385.647107-3.95593123.870.92893511.0196737.19419
1992q3 SP6.708205-3.5764413.482046.808795-3.95593123.82330.24035212.23231.09717
1992q4 SP5.042064-2.2420314.485269.517937-3.95593115.52-0.9096612.6906729.49232
1993q1 SP4.307795-1.3589315.948889.985206-7.2979116.24-2.8397811.6453333.16064
1993q2 SP4.337206-1.1640116.896458.301794-7.2979109.87-1.5340211.0903335.3317
1993q3 SP4.190039-0.6580517.582066.410961-7.2979103.2433-0.401869.59766738.64143
1993q4 SP4.835924-1.148218.299864.38341-7.2979103.63330.6280078.5141.80398
1994q1 SP4.03328-0.3694418.656634.477386-6.75983101.882.3890598.29766746.46485
1994q2 SP3.982986-0.7940619.242213.770348-6.75983102.50672.6148499.6343.36051
1994q3 SP3.697408-1.604619.28184.103258-6.75983103.932.20969610.8293340.88172
1994q4 SP3.53975-2.1416819.243484.429583-6.75983103.942.20708911.2333339.41484
1995q1 SP4.846295-1.5180618.968054.186371-6.48204102.28672.85282511.9063336.38541
1995q2 SP4.874181-0.1880918.669324.580152-6.48204104.56332.96794111.6803337.40171
1995q3 SP4.746334-0.3636218.718654.797333-6.48204106.182.45894111.03639.63001
1995q4 SP4.7998980.79301218.503874.590102-6.48204107.32.6066510.4613338.58644
1996q1 SP4.143467-0.8213518.116364.536533-4.85549108.521.7040889.68733341.58786
1996q2 SP3.533273-0.5312617.807413.916727-4.85549107.44332.1971649.20144.87838
1996q3 SP3.1773920.04333217.331334.035941-4.85549107.15332.7613758.69133444.37355
1996q4 SP2.761420.36998516.928963.875247-4.85549106.232.8784547.36733348.56076
1997q1 SP2.103156-0.6282616.803063.780178-3.3791103.73.3568376.86666757.62827
1997q2 SP2.3201950.11794316.602313.029805-3.3791102.413.4436156.67666765.40621
1997q3 SP2.5676250.45834216.143562.692375-3.3791101.013.7345816.272.64811
1997q4 SP2.410731-0.314115.716352.589269-3.3791102.72334.6277785.8671.71077
1998q1 SP0.311299-1.3432515.175654.268701-3.21858102.46674.4871845.24333390.9099
1998q2 SP2.936393-0.615714.927031.423607-3.21858102.55334.5217385.07103.8339
1998q3 SP2.952125-0.5473614.49311.358542-3.21858104.04334.5661934.71666797.30972
1998q4 SP3.492715-2.1767414.001920.224618-3.21858104.60673.9192914.30666790.97006
1999q1 SP4.558655-1.6742212.97391-1.46532-1.43411103.74673.9808014.053333102.4909
1999q2 SP2.154777-2.7674212.208310.48189-1.43411102.274.553874.32103.5993
1999q3 SP1.976825-3.4511811.936470.726508-1.43411102.32674.8718435.13100.8401
1999q4 SP1.770293-3.7335411.767241.659707-1.43411101.495.118015.406667105.5506
2000q1 SP3.200475-3.789111.311730.341892-0.99689100.64335.6590395.68119.6388
2000q2 SP2.984984-3.9693810.864921.275383-0.9968999.716675.2363885.513333113.6584
2000q3 SP3.520253-4.6794910.610621.217346-0.9968999.976674.446475.53112.4238
2000q4 SP3.867451-3.4027710.375221.154782-0.9968999.654.3900495.38103.3124
2001q1 SP3.964015-4.1102810.26290.782252-0.65993102.18673.9346525.08100
2001q2 SP4.40517-4.4313710.115460.189896-0.65993101.28333.4775015.2997.30038
2001q3 SP4.172334-3.536969.9945730.095466-0.65993102.33673.6821745.21666783.84367
2001q4 SP3.919571-3.7026210.20281-0.47704-0.65993102.473.2464034.8884.37645
2002q1 SP4.24467-3.1499510.81187-0.8822-0.47668102.13672.6345615.16666784.09957
2002q2 SP4.072567-3.4644810.92555-0.6271-0.47668104.292.8352165.3182.41487
2002q3 SP4.202693-2.7342211.21221-0.84536-0.47668104.72672.5344024.8167.14817
2002q4 SP4.351542-3.6788511.18546-1.24261-0.47668106.462.668964.5565.03327
2003q1 SP4.095815-3.4616811.15491-1.41225-0.22901107.54333.1406624.09666763.31144
2003q2 SP4.119957-3.5842110.97817-1.75539-0.22901110.052.9586843.92333367.63354
2003q3 SP4.059646-3.39811.06067-1.92041-0.22901109.292.9766264.14333372.46244
2003q4 SP3.964947-3.5919410.96133-1.81541-0.22901110.94673.1222244.33666774.12724
2004q1 SP4.015567-4.3283710.69078-1.95207-0.35492110.82672.9037794.11666781.0282
2004q2 SP3.93532-5.6629210.77227-1.85325-0.35492111.63.0455494.30666780.82466
2004q3 SP3.844525-5.4877510.54812-1.72823-0.35492111.58333.565294.1779.02674
2004q4 SP3.978467-5.494510.18164-1.81487-0.35492113.663.336643.8284.75114
2005q1 SP4.067611-7.062429.841345-1.927280.963037112.873.5043363.63333391.3528
2005q2 SP4.199543-7.687479.417545-2.074940.963037113.69333.636043.3692.19275
2005q3 SP4.251193-6.9628.650052-2.120860.963037112.88673.3591453.1899.28622
2005q4 SP4.26133-7.703488.734577-1.917860.963037114.04673.7014843.373333101.8117
2006q1 SP4.198233-8.298338.740397-1.586672.020151113.873.708893.487108.8731
2006q2 SP4.001-8.596558.592592-1.11152.020151115.973.8423863.966667109.7507
2006q3 SP3.983497-9.172768.391098-0.762132.020151115.54333.9033133.89112.7957
2006q4 SP3.683348-9.608538.325054-0.088882.020151116.38673.8045133.793333130.5508
2007q1 SP3.405299-9.256698.1449430.4150352.215126116.193.8820274.063334136.8911
2007q2 SP3.257334-9.890147.9957440.8074992.215126118.22673.8164454.388139.6234
2007q3 SP2.912773-10.2438.2860131.5877282.215126117.75673.5020634.449134.8466
2007q4 SP2.944534-10.88918.6257521.7802322.215126120.45673.198254.325333140.4827
2008q1 SP3.229003-10.70699.2662281.250997-1.51534120.87332.5960514.146333119.5456
2008q2 SP3.452052-10.183310.500751.408415-1.51534123.40331.7442184.508333118.386

Figure 9.  Sweden

Data for Figure 9 immediately follows

Data for Figure 9

TIME COUNTRY INFLATION CURRACCTPERGDP UNEMPRATE REALINTRATE FISCBALPERGDP REALEFFEXRATE GDP4QCHANGE BONDRATE REALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1 SD 1.913814 4.742714 147.1 7.536667 10.28978
1970q2 SD 1.825256 4.742714 146.52 7.596667 9.237023
1970q3 SD 1.955774 4.742714 147.32 7.756667 9.283726
1970q4 SD 2.324948 4.742714 147.5333 7.69 8.314793
1971q1 SD 5.729325 2.92894 1.520675 4.583361 150.94 3.012321 7.546667 8.907083
1971q2 SD 6.618769 3.344299 -0.36877 4.583361 147.5133 1.062361 7.543334 9.431389
1971q3 SD 7.340781 3.574776 -1.50745 4.583361 147.16 -0.00545 7.483333 9.41088
1971q4 SD 8.972777 3.668922 -4.88945 4.583361 148.6067 -1.45226 7.376667 9.121461
1972q1 SD 8.090526 3.627545 -4.34053 4.129437 149.4033 0.11515 7.486667 9.708439
1972q2 SD 7.292853 3.59049 -3.29285 4.129437 149.4667 1.487912 7.52 10.22939
1972q3 SD 6.76267 3.557765 -2.67934 4.129437 150.9467 2.486011 7.573333 10.26141
1972q4 SD 4.559807 3.508026 -1.39314 4.129437 150.6267 5.161583 7.6 10.16736
1973q1 SD 4.84435 3.441189 -1.92768 5.07912 149.0933 5.351958 7.61 9.960826
1973q2 SD 5.388136 3.345558 -2.63814 5.07912 146.7067 5.198502 7.643333 10.38515
1973q3 SD 7.729062 3.221555 -4.97906 5.07912 146.9133 3.167867 7.66 10.17662
1973q4 SD 8.203492 3.06232 -5.45349 5.07912 143.55 2.83386 7.64 9.366576
1974q1 SD 9.383 2.868714 -7.21633 3.477651 140.3267 1.637601 7.493333 10.36424
1974q2 SD 8.182069 2.697043 -0.18207 3.477651 140.5633 3.289538 8.06 10.20722
1974q3 SD 8.435888 2.547199 0.064112 3.477651 138.7233 3.909847 8.2 9.353343
1974q4 SD 9.851845 2.405276 -1.10185 3.477651 142.7633 3.905456 8.4 8.487795
1975q1 SD 10.56505 0.378854 2.271524 -1.81506 5.012675 144.4733 5.075653 8.43 8.742291
1975q2 SD 14.28088 -0.12664 2.173183 -5.86421 5.012675 144.4833 2.226178 9.006667 8.848837
1975q3 SD 14.72342 -0.71463 2.109265 -7.80675 5.012675 142.0933 1.734832 9.333333 9.149167
1975q4 SD 14.03205 0.008097 2.077736 -8.94872 5.012675 141.8633 1.651642 9.393333 9.48416
1976q1 SD 14.93174 -1.2401 2.123763 -10.4317 6.466372 144.43 -0.66526 9.393333 9.035638
1976q2 SD 10.72874 -2.01783 2.126655 -5.56207 6.466372 146.1567 2.247395 9.406667 9.935778
1976q3 SD 10.99217 0.118832 2.00759 -4.15884 6.466372 146.1133 0.797093 9.466666 9.161104
1976q4 SD 11.34961 -3.28887 2.193107 -1.84961 6.466372 151.67 -0.9356 10.02 7.996218
1977q1 SD 10.16436 -3.02001 2.280353 -0.66436 1.60565 150.3967 -1.30925 9.893333 8.162356
1977q2 SD 10.12833 -2.35717 2.221525 -0.62833 1.60565 146.15 -2.0551 9.993333 7.631924
1977q3 SD 9.385432 -2.14207 2.491227 0.114568 1.60565 141.73 -1.36931 10.01667 7.023503
1977q4 SD 10.16974 -0.5309 2.69045 -1.00307 1.60565 132.18 -1.49883 10.08 6.37324
1978q1 SD 7.82512 0.033215 2.888065 0.341549 -0.64079 132.8933 2.164588 10.19 6.709327
1978q2 SD 8.132732 0.269341 3.096177 -1.46606 -0.64079 132.2867 2.704872 10.48333 7.035809
1978q3 SD 10.7642 0.563825 3.150223 -4.84753 -0.64079 130.39 0.478019 10.38333 7.095091
1978q4 SD 8.614208 0.480411 2.823483 -2.86421 -0.64079 129.1833 2.687351 10.32667 6.626847
1979q1 SD 7.921373 -0.15656 2.914946 -2.17137 -2.77906 128.4433 3.120764 10.38333 6.973156
1979q2 SD 7.91798 -2.03969 2.92148 -2.16798 -2.77906 128.7033 3.167705 10.45 6.500199
1979q3 SD 5.879778 -2.11146 2.75875 0.620222 -2.77906 128.91 5.52719 10.7 6.31828
1979q4 SD 8.042666 -2.23045 2.523469 1.124003 -2.77906 129.6767 4.01823 11.34333 6.114741
1980q1 SD 10.37956 -2.5947 2.538144 0.12044 -5.66348 131.6533 5.164688 11.39333 6.285669
1980q2 SD 10.63566 -4.97899 2.666371 0.464338 -5.66348 130.0767 -1.45672 11.59333 6.18814
1980q3 SD 12.25938 -2.65494 2.552263 0.057323 -5.66348 131.0467 2.018004 12.07667 5.918077
1980q4 SD 11.92371 -1.82055 2.916736 0.459595 -5.66348 134.4033 -0.01163 12.92 6.065949
1981q1 SD 10.253 -1.45132 2.930837 5.5137 -4.65185 136.3267 -2.47786 13.48333 7.24901
1981q2 SD 10.33012 -1.7298 2.988195 4.236575 -4.65185 136.5933 2.249004 13.81333 8.061165
1981q3 SD 8.940123 -2.25747 3.357196 1.893177 -4.65185 133.2933 -0.6543 13.97667 9.019925
1981q4 SD 6.799459 -2.77133 3.982198 2.200541 -4.65185 121.9533 0.187762 13.68667 9.54477
1982q1 SD 8.114404 -1.68044 4.03722 4.22893 -6.5287 123.4767 -0.09545 13.04667 9.590127
1982q2 SD 8.683262 -1.93459 4.085399 4.343405 -6.5287 123.2833 1.947217 13.12333 8.812015
1982q3 SD 6.674592 -3.11475 4.443617 7.682075 -6.5287 123.87 -0.00814 13.48 9.281287
1982q4 SD 7.688962 -4.85929 4.291775 5.584371 -6.5287 107.3467 3.075524 13.53 11.04798
1983q1 SD 8.30375 -0.57154 4.466777 2.822917 -5.08442 106.3033 1.295933 13.06667 14.97738
1983q2 SD 9.247951 0.130122 4.678224 1.732049 -5.08442 107.7833 0.626444 12.43 16.84471
1983q3 SD 10.06844 -0.84621 4.715273 1.381562 -5.08442 109.6 2.701439 12.21667 18.05618
1983q4 SD 10.85438 -0.72992 4.620395 1.23229 -5.08442 110.31 2.79219 12.50667 18.33642
1984q1 SD 7.797574 2.353476 4.365603 3.202426 -3.00534 111.8433 6.563924 12.22667 19.79125
1984q2 SD 7.47825 -0.0481 4.318991 3.665084 -3.00534 112.5967 3.362699 11.93333 18.51669
1984q3 SD 7.280508 0.391296 3.970455 6.222826 -3.00534 114.08 4.008957 12.86333 17.26123
1984q4 SD 6.804742 1.063119 3.942394 5.271924 -3.00534 115.3333 2.976333 13.11333 15.50976
1985q1 SD 8.353666 -3.172 3.80265 4.709667 -3.62961 115.91 0.888176 13.12 15.70192
1985q2 SD 6.483086 -1.54477 3.837488 8.650248 -3.62961 115.4867 3.371641 13.44 14.87513
1985q3 SD 5.772559 0.530095 3.547738 9.357441 -3.62961 115.7367 3.217221 13.37 14.50749
1985q4 SD 4.870038 1.030499 3.442199 8.499962 -3.62961 116.61 1.304429 13.02 16.09544
1986q1 SD 5.754197 0.336153 3.582001 5.555803 -0.34148 116.51 2.358477 11.91667 19.12069
1986q2 SD 5.856044 -0.00117 3.370031 4.220623 -0.34148 115.8367 3.360105 10.15333 23.38175
1986q3 SD 7.499468 1.088831 3.274258 1.677198 -0.34148 114.7233 1.967834 9.883333 25.055
1986q4 SD 6.16655 -0.19958 3.308103 2.59345 -0.34148 114.6767 3.312339 10.17556 26.11977
1987q1 SD 4.592998 0.297007 2.945307 5.700336 3.266455 115.1733 2.541226 11.46 24.62338
1987q2 SD 5.513837 0.118067 2.832274 3.656163 3.266455 115.2 2.627285 11.57333 27.5587
1987q3 SD 3.271725 0.354866 2.728971 5.658276 3.266455 115.84 4.118743 11.92 30.66137
1987q4 SD 5.482761 0.274957 2.381345 3.687239 3.266455 115.6067 4.06181 11.76667 25.31496
1988q1 SD 5.718296 -0.44087 2.390826 3.535038 3.281369 116.6733 3.722907 11.42667 25.19275
1988q2 SD 4.72564 0.060267 2.255 5.387693 3.281369 118.6233 2.486047 11.40333 27.43791
1988q3 SD 7.430965 0.294432 2.293222 3.009035 3.281369 118.6967 1.193579 11.46333 28.09344
1988q4 SD 6.717204 0.057537 2.026776 3.809463 3.281369 119.6467 2.885849 11.11333 30.45953
1989q1 SD 7.668241 -0.35339 2.023706 3.121759 3.212896 120.55 2.226548 10.64 33.20483
1989q2 SD 7.922734 -1.43712 1.92729 3.623933 3.212896 121.48 3.48309 11.07 35.45169
1989q3 SD 6.674469 -0.84248 1.879695 5.015531 3.212896 121.9433 3.012633 11.06333 38.98424
1989q4 SD 8.513554 -2.02058 1.97749 3.456447 3.212896 121.7533 2.120337 11.94667 35.38836
1990q1 SD 7.541918 -1.88269 1.881033 6.518082 3.333771 124.4867 2.983147 13.44 34.45448
1990q2 SD 10.38797 -1.53419 1.823903 2.702033 3.333771 126.7767 0.477804 13.27 33.39172
1990q3 SD 9.082748 -3.14866 2.227469 3.797252 3.333771 127.0667 0.419059 13.14333 32.8977
1990q4 SD 6.79845 -2.13274 2.66034 7.84155 3.333771 126.6333 0.223757 12.78333 24.40325
1991q1 SD 10.29511 -1.57582 3.064406 2.211556 -0.0754 131.47 -1.11616 11.44333 25.52779
1991q2 SD 7.792447 -0.87734 3.390179 3.747553 -0.0754 132.17 -0.28574 10.90333 27.78486
1991q3 SD 9.346495 -2.78756 4.066415 1.166839 -0.0754 130.0333 -0.80879 10.47 27.35682
1991q4 SD 7.057315 -0.53576 4.718538 4.756018 -0.0754 132.2233 -2.13054 9.946667 24.35423
1992q1 SD 2.517474 -3.28442 5.557028 9.622526 -8.80148 132.3433 -0.13653 9.45 24.45386
1992q2 SD -0.92459 -3.08532 6.455637 12.62459 -8.80148 132.3133 -0.9651 9.52 25.05965
1992q3 SD 0.013008 -2.81137 7.115976 15.10699 -8.80148 134.5467 -1.23892 10.54667 19.97223
1992q4 SD 2.363904 -1.89327 7.807436 10.10943 -8.80148 125.19 -2.447 10.55 19.34345
1993q1 SD 2.161523 -3.30191 9.208223 7.435143 -11.1672 111.15 -4.56206 9.77 23.78766
1993q2 SD 4.098201 -0.84471 11.10777 4.748466 -11.1672 110.1167 -3.13228 9.06 26.05787
1993q3 SD 2.133343 0.089596 11.42068 5.643324 -11.1672 104.5767 -1.29571 7.886667 30.03435
1993q4 SD 1.454018 -0.99133 11.88842 5.732648 -11.1672 103.2567 0.952613 7.44 33.32709
1994q1 SD 2.366604 0.845931 11.73624 4.630062 -9.0636 106.4067 2.61137 7.143333 36.66628
1994q2 SD 3.001135 1.228006 11.44861 4.025531 -9.0636 106.51 3.742064 8.956667 35.15234
1994q3 SD 2.263575 1.046162 11.07106 5.306425 -9.0636 103.76 4.255688 11.03 34.20966
1994q4 SD 3.286606 1.362356 11.02281 4.723394 -9.0636 107.1 4.441177 10.85 34.43597
1995q1 SD 3.807272 2.741298 10.71858 4.389394 -7.31756 105.0967 5.095288 10.96333 35.0271
1995q2 SD 3.225202 4.175943 10.45335 5.678131 -7.31756 101.9567 4.449623 10.91333 36.32375
1995q3 SD 3.767894 3.382472 10.41679 5.342106 -7.31756 105.1667 3.512113 10.13667 40.14713
1995q4 SD 2.775967 2.919198 10.94401 5.997367 -7.31756 113.54 3.389461 8.963333 39.60702
1996q1 SD 2.10544 4.130952 11.00187 5.537893 -3.3176 113.22 2.476621 8.58 41.28871
1996q2 SD 0.485158 3.872574 11.5362 5.591508 -3.3176 115.58 1.142292 8.37 44.98411
1996q3 SD 1.268147 3.279186 11.70362 3.865186 -3.3176 115.0633 1.41669 8.056666 44.90916
1996q4 SD -0.45892 2.891138 12.05083 4.76559 -3.3176 114.56 0.83136 7.1 51.40552
1997q1 SD -0.73855 3.913691 12.33788 4.678553 -1.62963 108.8833 0.989108 6.84 60.19947
1997q2 SD 2.618612 4.234206 12.36164 1.438055 -1.62963 106.7833 2.745517 7 63.12375
1997q3 SD 0.972738 4.381 11.66117 3.140595 -1.62963 108.3667 2.88061 6.433333 71.21125
1997q4 SD 2.394601 3.848827 10.98469 1.925399 -1.62963 110.15 3.937572 6.183333 67.78799
1998q1 SD 1.71489 3.807905 10.31757 2.691776 1.223901 107.1733 3.716269 5.51 72.76157
1998q2 SD -0.06089 3.565864 10.17923 4.44756 1.223901 109.24 3.756106 5.126667 82.73726
1998q3 SD 0.378918 4.276541 9.761309 3.784416 1.223901 105.25 3.868194 4.813334 77.17859
1998q4 SD 0.655139 3.705158 9.16898 3.138194 1.223901 100.6867 3.289695 4.506667 68.51093
1999q1 SD 0.849482 3.899915 8.78005 2.330518 1.203642 102.91 4.447901 4.213333 75.77282
1999q2 SD 1.164577 4.604953 8.354884 1.755423 1.203642 101.4067 3.528174 4.536667 82.68224
1999q3 SD 1.160967 3.944326 8.354471 1.859033 1.203642 102.6333 4.050834 5.48 86.30533
1999q4 SD 1.514946 4.158662 7.805996 1.825054 1.203642 102.16 4.897526 5.69 100.3921
2000q1 SD 1.591879 4.448678 7.380061 2.251454 3.746333 101.37 4.326358 5.786667 134.3646
2000q2 SD 1.105265 3.386302 7.06584 2.858068 3.746333 102.5233 5.561572 5.296667 133.3123
2000q3 SD 1.450819 3.073526 6.717217 2.539181 3.746333 99.61667 4.679665 5.293334 128.606
2000q4 SD 1.238649 4.412586 6.261216 2.781351 3.746333 96.48666 3.13782 5.093333 111.5036
2001q1 SD 1.212226 3.711012 6.084898 2.864441 1.679022 94.85333 2.39864 4.833333 100
2001q2 SD 2.597948 2.84766 5.776638 1.442052 1.679022 92.71 0.582671 5.193333 89.86894
2001q3 SD 1.71899 4.530282 5.813172 2.48101 1.679022 90.44 0.565991 5.28 79.87982
2001q4 SD 2.886365 3.999267 6.029775 0.818608 1.679022 90.31 1.349249 5.123333 79.56525
2002q1 SD 2.06111 5.291017 6.074686 1.83889 -1.41794 93.05334 1.517502 5.42 81.79782
2002q2 SD 1.813392 5.550405 5.995963 2.459941 -1.41794 94.01334 2.958657 5.633333 72.38533
2002q3 SD 1.888703 3.855074 6.097466 2.317963 -1.41794 94.29 2.671942 5.156667 56.04182
2002q4 SD 0.652914 1.405402 6.269209 3.230419 -1.41794 96.48333 2.388328 5.003334 54.23872
2003q1 SD 2.346703 6.400666 6.443553 1.20663 -1.15603 98.03667 2.698312 4.58 50.8568
2003q2 SD 1.240299 6.720716 6.474102 1.896367 -1.15603 100.16 1.230339 4.43 53.64995
2003q3 SD 2.265554 7.142205 6.882757 0.434446 -1.15603 99.27333 1.996522 4.646667 60.27702
2003q4 SD 1.332911 8.13279 7.37733 1.383756 -1.15603 101.8533 2.202381 4.896667 65.16068
2004q1 SD 0.644349 5.497083 7.596635 1.828984 0.56896 100.5467 2.648971 4.503334 72.08331
2004q2 SD 1.040476 7.650853 7.63532 0.956191 0.56896 99.19334 3.95418 4.65 72.66209
2004q3 SD 0.757846 6.873576 7.896145 1.235487 0.56896 99.23 3.602924 4.453333 71.19402
2004q4 SD 0.826413 6.797918 7.654036 1.166921 0.56896 101.72 3.608175 4.093333 76.76379
2005q1 SD -0.64827 5.826874 7.60466 2.628265 2.141365 100.5667 3.067387 3.82 82.31412
2005q2 SD 1.437737 6.637591 7.934511 0.40893 2.141365 97.34333 2.789452 3.343333 83.15071
2005q3 SD 0.990595 7.651624 7.701784 0.486072 2.141365 94.69 3.389487 3.06 90.901
2005q4 SD 1.718963 7.014976 7.697693 -0.15563 2.141365 93.36667 3.641299 3.306667 96.3959
2006q1 SD 3.237376 8.698932 7.523055 -1.33071 2.185951 94.36 4.395841 3.43 106.5282
2006q2 SD 0.545093 7.973537 7.339597 1.578241 2.185951 95.62666 4.628656 3.886667 108.9003
2006q3 SD 0.858045 8.186471 6.845394 1.558622 2.185951 96.73333 4.281459 3.833333 105.5909
2006q4 SD 1.441394 8.933394 6.52622 1.438606 2.185951 98.56 4.021842 3.666667 118.8858
2007q1 SD 2.609997 8.893968 6.488566 0.643337 3.533391 98.27 3.343388 3.873333 127.8826
2007q2 SD 2.825442 7.559841 6.199463 0.571225 3.533391 98.13333 3.131595 4.21 136.91
2007q3 SD 2.726023 7.469873 5.942417 0.850644 3.533391 98.33667 2.613972 4.306667 131.3814
2007q4 SD 3.297059 9.791081 5.972113 0.686275 3.533391 99.81 2.372164 4.28 119.4929
2008q1 SD 2.05184 8.350234 5.956927 2.134826 2.763176 99.28667 1.824991 4.006667 101.0078
2008q2 SD 3.629789 5.748272 6.128585 0.510211 2.763176 101.47 0.936019 4.223333 100.5574

Figure 10.  United Kingdom

Data for Figure 10 immediately follows

Data for Figure 10

TIME COUNTRYINFLATIONCURRACCTPERGDPUNEMPRATEREALINTRATEFISCBALPERGDPREALEFFEXRATEGDP4QCHANGEBONDRATEREALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1 UK2.6485213.4794213.01321398.266678.70333352.7387
1970q2 UK1.3027783.5057363.01321399.103338.73333445.56394
1970q3 UK0.7466673.5297693.01321398.458.4244.58644
1970q4 UK1.6964153.6010473.01321399.148.6845.44403
1971q1 UK8.7021571.6023313.829172-0.992851.706471101.12672.5322928.57666743.41033
1971q2 UK9.2368731.956924.078125-2.63081.706471103.08671.6392128.14666750.23899
1971q3 UK8.9230582.4715744.209249-3.110251.706471102.632.3213367.62333355.00599
1971q4 UK8.6171581.7412114.438264-3.740931.706471102.68331.8030297.12666753.73639
1972q1 UK7.4422140.9058694.501871-0.19287-1.91662102.992.9524427.15666760.44539
1972q2 UK7.3698110.9728244.438907-0.74707-1.91662103.02334.1029888.0861.92699
1972q3 UK7.262673-0.892364.2826550.676611-1.9166296.962.8441919.0860.85407
1972q4 UK8.960944-0.034874.150167-0.52504-1.9166294.913334.4411939.18333357.60133
1973q1 UK8.802149-1.224183.8642681.410264-4.1590892.69.5240499.42666652.83632
1973q2 UK5.381215-0.568723.7296763.557979-4.1590892.356677.431499.7651.87886
1973q3 UK7.90417-1.840493.5792895.387966-4.1590884.923336.38540111.0433346.45024
1973q4 UK7.461715-2.207213.4302937.433609-4.1590884.686674.49918712.0033341.66714
1974q1 UK7.472546-3.869483.5664668.029388-4.0913585.39667-3.0573113.3233334.24458
1974q2 UK14.60516-4.314323.616037-1.2297-4.0913588.40334-1.5873213.6533329.3962
1974q3 UK14.98508-3.826943.681217-2.25623-4.0913587.603330.20032814.2866721.0453
1974q4 UK17.67085-3.783623.747936-5.2953-4.0913586.46667-0.8591915.5633315.81195
1975q1 UK23.59661-1.838063.953891-12.7009-5.1613987.503331.98930413.5466720.89966
1975q2 UK24.94683-1.296664.317319-15.1544-5.1613990.57333-1.5496112.8425.7692
1975q3 UK24.82635-2.602084.671181-14.2973-5.1613989.76-2.749712.7624.08058
1975q4 UK22.71868-0.678475.03762-11.373-5.1613988.80334-0.1787813.5826.24692
1976q1 UK18.520460.4653485.262153-9.53127-5.3263589.026661.20189312.4428.09246
1976q2 UK14.37405-1.028515.394777-3.47836-5.3263582.436672.06334812.7633327.27881
1976q3 UK12.25537-1.467255.458432-0.56642-5.32635813.21062213.8033324.69222
1976q4 UK12.0153-0.979085.461482.806698-5.3263576.226673.91685615.4333320.94783
1977q1 UK12.36914-1.084375.47277-1.02683-3.7618480.983332.3593213.2833325.72666
1977q2 UK13.50192-1.099055.530586-5.45598-3.7618482.292.68387712.1866727.7335
1977q3 UK13.400960.6068915.676374-6.65157-3.7618482.333342.51393512.0633329.64069
1977q4 UK12.114250.6786575.695072-6.36143-3.7618484.176671.84195310.5766730.51734
1978q1 UK12.4512-0.295125.596901-5.8012-4.9850885.826672.1073910.7333327.89534
1978q2 UK11.106921.0952225.550076-2.12026-4.9850881.563.53554912.2233327.92032
1978q3 UK10.318360.20515.512199-0.65503-4.9850882.486663.8471512.3266730.17209
1978q4 UK10.157880.8894315.3663141.508784-4.9850882.183333.21524612.9766729.05993
1979q1 UK10.26023-1.452145.3518262.426435-4.0807784.346661.86302613.2066729.13125
1979q2 UK10.15021-0.273055.2926782.059791-4.0807789.695.10348911.931.88214
1979q3 UK15.993720.2871995.364042-1.90372-4.0807797.586671.64780912.3866727.66542
1979q4 UK17.50858-0.659755.495327-1.75192-4.0807794.263341.93967914.2925.64336
1980q1 UK18.4764-0.490985.811698-0.7964-3.7130399.726671.90054714.6933325.41271
1980q2 UK20.37352-0.731146.322053-3.22352-3.71303105.0733-4.1158714.1033324.29092
1980q3 UK16.585171.4367237.067335-0.4485-3.71303107.8733-1.9816713.4166725.91897
1980q4 UK16.478742.6003918.026199-0.96207-3.71303112.51-4.2011413.4426.25608
1981q1 UK14.269184.4443018.875587-0.94584-4.99386115.33-3.8715513.8233325.14395
1981q2 UK11.401822.4070589.552471.061515-4.99386114.36-1.8958714.2527.28295
1981q3 UK9.283821-0.1059.9264034.969512-4.99386105.8567-0.3534815.4426.38518
1981q4 UK8.1919980.9689210.23737.418001-4.99386104.72330.81208816.0224.43529
1982q1 UK7.8612151.42121710.411176.532119-3.04761106.64331.76782415.0133325.87884
1982q2 UK6.999019-0.1006410.573926.374314-3.04761107.232.86566413.9466726.86517
1982q3 UK7.2263670.30970710.807184.226966-3.04761107.71.55862412.3566727.81852
1982q4 UK6.5420721.53636311.076593.391261-3.04761104.58672.09470111.0233330.44088
1983q1 UK6.1012681.48449311.249955.072065-3.8580794.003333.12782611.6831.33562
1983q2 UK5.424584-0.6351711.421194.72875-3.8580799.342.65872811.0733.77877
1983q3 UK5.2717340.93954911.549894.544933-3.85807100.913.87388411.534.37352
1983q4 UK4.601206-0.1269811.66014.765461-3.8580799.016674.5603510.8233333.66228
1984q1 UK2.9043021.05809511.849616.355698-4.1453296.616674.03251210.7666737.2271
1984q2 UK5.828419-1.3677911.868413.414914-4.1453295.083342.5821211.2733337.38976
1984q3 UK4.658925-1.1595611.743376.477742-4.1453293.526661.8607311.5736.61887
1984q4 UK4.597658-0.0717411.633885.535675-4.1453290.683332.08640110.940.08267
1985q1 UK5.768498-1.2611311.482227.261502-3.2420987.276662.24076411.3933344.02888
1985q2 UK5.0810690.43861611.370037.538931-3.2420997.093334.50645311.1143.81602
1985q3 UK5.8731220.22882311.299625.823545-3.24209100.594.0556710.7133342.91317
1985q4 UK5.94902-0.0857411.279015.677647-3.2420997.223343.3374210.6633345.83266
1986q1 UK4.9980280.38839911.322797.428638-2.9639691.113.73228310.5166750.14089
1986q2 UK3.180156-0.9851111.33816.979844-2.9639693.163333.3059529.1854.57154
1986q3 UK2.936769-1.8915211.367957.049898-2.9639687.383333.8510029.8553.49424
1986q4 UK2.407845-1.1802811.269018.788822-2.9639683.056664.83094510.9933353.76752
1987q1 UK4.08562-0.0984311.102796.521046-2.0643284.893.8868239.78333462.85683
1987q2 UK5.093326-1.6059310.739044.070007-2.0643289.056663.8030318.95666770.07826
1987q3 UK5.745563-1.9532110.219624.054438-2.0643288.526665.4271149.87666775.21199
1987q4 UK5.824671-3.240029.6800393.398663-2.0643291.113334.701419.66666757.60934
1988q1 UK5.557578-3.623969.1949173.472422-0.0733591.503335.8037249.48333456.60194
1988q2 UK5.666178-3.648668.7491222.753822-0.0733595.585.2250949.37333356.90876
1988q3 UK5.872412-3.660098.3552285.494255-0.0733594.076674.4326499.9556.59988
1988q4 UK7.237581-5.573438.0040495.262419-0.0733595.754.2105879.89666754.76672
1989q1 UK7.453743-4.812657.5741255.6029240.22274195.863332.9326569.85333359.66276
1989q2 UK6.739022-5.259467.2293766.7343120.22274193.116673.08863910.362.72349
1989q3 UK7.219882-5.599427.0908466.7034510.22274191.281.80856310.0966.62454
1989q4 UK6.934955-4.384266.9928378.1483780.22274188.016671.2125110.5261.78852
1990q1 UK6.682813-4.807826.9332968.503853-2.0358387.963331.66952711.5466761.54152
1990q2 UK7.991275-4.657146.9184787.118725-2.0358390.316671.56935912.3166758.96724
1990q3 UK8.370617-2.812667.0779656.582716-2.0358396.463330.274212.0355.81164
1990q4 UK6.792414-2.900277.4650627.034253-2.0358396.77666-0.4149311.3166752.44262
1991q1 UK7.299216-2.217817.9969485.907451-3.4181195.76334-1.3335810.3366755.33614
1991q2 UK6.601813-1.39778.6627044.97152-3.4181196.68-2.1927710.3833360.02473
1991q3 UK5.144046-1.960099.1591335.612621-3.4181195.65-1.37769.98333461.14757
1991q4 UK6.009147-1.526389.4575174.544187-3.4181196.21-0.697539.71666659.06723
1992q1 UK5.238241-1.73049.7007595.308426-6.5181395.37666-0.471639.4859.07613
1992q2 UK4.510538-2.175949.7889285.709462-6.5181397.97-0.378489.1961.44677
1992q3 UK2.751654-2.322349.939277.411678-6.5181396.023330.4958279.19666755.94049
1992q4 UK2.283829-2.1349910.360815.276171-6.5181384.383330.9388918.38666660.9785
1993q1 UK2.608689-1.8059310.608743.751312-7.9775882.276661.4140787.98666764.34962
1993q2 UK1.969739-2.2745310.389793.976928-7.9775884.963332.107847864.50422
1993q3 UK3.525982-1.8543610.246772.374018-7.9775885.582.4740367.21666766.25174
1993q4 UK3.212934-1.6911410.242782.3404-7.9775885.376662.7848486.71666769.65595
1994q1 UK2.086195-1.020159.9376243.170472-6.8302985.206673.2406746.85333374.24221
1994q2 UK1.675808-1.408839.7076363.494193-6.8302984.456674.1999388.27666769.31773
1994q3 UK0.736068-0.662929.3591524.730599-6.8302983.064.7191918.69333469.81904
1994q4 UK1.780961-0.843988.95744.332373-6.8302984.054.5822998.66666766.88293
1995q1 UK2.011635-0.158018.8608054.645032-5.8355482.543.8580478.6666.1139
1995q2 UK2.925462-2.04698.662983.751205-5.8355480.232.986448.24333369.73257
1995q3 UK3.249144-1.758018.6437213.520856-5.8355480.313332.7286298.1173.91534
1995q4 UK2.424965-0.967598.3039254.195035-5.8355479.852.4384087.7974.06832
1996q1 UK2.822118-1.078028.2326343.367882-4.1545379.763343.0153487.75333476.45766
1996q2 UK3.860871-0.77398.2510232.095796-4.1545381.146672.9356198.06666777.96801
1996q3 UK4.161502-0.824328.0575741.588498-4.1545381.872.5071957.85333377.0943
1996q4 UK3.386078-0.566587.8478972.810589-4.1545387.636672.8991467.5779.1266
1997q1 UK3.137230.0252387.324273.099436-2.2387892.053342.7425757.40333381.92756
1997q2 UK2.1539450.3425517.1768664.342721-2.2387894.786673.0958617.31666783.48275
1997q3 UK2.7821640.2109936.8400944.324502-2.2387897.233.39956.9987.14092
1997q4 UK2.914329-1.01446.5440894.559005-2.2387899.053.7626996.589.34853
1998q1 UK2.497382-0.76666.363864.975952-0.09521101.42333.8122686.04666796.24075
1998q2 UK2.418966-0.499116.2828885.074367-0.09521102.00673.6143415.816667104.3695
1998q3 UK1.8905520.5553576.2403915.692781-0.09521101.19333.450525.51666798.02245
1998q4 UK1.991705-0.744656.1427034.811628-0.0952197.883333.2995954.8293.9418
1999q1 UK2.128025-2.867336.1740823.3819750.92847297.553.0581544.46103.0721
1999q2 UK2.393903-2.04186.0436892.8060970.928472100.16333.2223174.89108.1697
1999q3 UK1.998393-1.890345.8917093.1916070.92847299.173333.6499725.496666108.0082
1999q4 UK1.793257-2.621595.8062964.1034090.928472100.99673.7152965.526667111.1125
2000q1 UK1.615046-2.249345.787974.5049543.674837101.65674.2486615.606667116.5887
2000q2 UK1.024549-2.400675.5041455.1687843.674837100.59334.4330835.31112.9338
2000q3 UK1.001804-2.412445.3255455.121533.67483798.376663.6715925.32113.903
2000q4 UK1.09092-3.484775.2263974.899083.67483799.376663.0266995.076667107.3249
2001q1 UK2.078237-1.588945.0853863.5617630.64756596.583.0124774.79100
2001q2 UK2.101586-2.285655.0383883.1284140.64756598.183332.2937465.0995.89201
2001q3 UK1.777899-2.115615.0980933.1454340.64756598.063332.2567125.0686.37955
2001q4 UK2.450627-2.263845.1787661.6427060.64756598.22.1718294.78333383.36509
2002q1 UK2.48405-1.794915.1611141.522616-1.9735798.451.7850935.02333483.05516
2002q2 UK3.054216-2.260425.1710661.045784-1.9735797.156671.9344635.279.61359
2002q3 UK3.532687-0.930345.3124370.41398-1.9735797.712.1626594.7565.36156
2002q4 UK3.114679-1.958185.1162480.805321-1.9735798.452.4121364.60666762.11958
2003q1 UK2.991581-0.503945.162860.735086-3.7041694.822.2621744.30666757.30674
2003q2 UK2.949306-1.832654.9495940.624027-3.7041692.322.8012364.26666761.48613
2003q3 UK3.047734-2.27045.0629080.452266-3.7041692.292.8612754.57333364.43382
2003q4 UK3.068216-1.784244.8990580.795117-3.7041693.646673.1813844.9667.24512
2004q1 UK2.187427-1.825164.7968381.91924-3.673697.036673.0731144.7769.51874
2004q2 UK2.360159-2.173384.8180272.146508-3.673697.613333.0719245.0970.00981
2004q3 UK2.404948-2.816574.6992672.445052-3.673697.196662.5143665.0168.65784
2004q4 UK2.964139-1.582354.7371751.855861-3.673695.232.232964.66333371.97919
2005q1 UK2.996758-2.29694.6909731.849908-3.3390795.553342.2062944.64333375.63804
2005q2 UK2.682314-1.069864.7663242.147686-3.3390796.493331.893774.4476.26844
2005q3 UK1.604735-3.721744.7608042.948598-3.3390795.052.1110734.27666782.56823
2005q4 UK1.531749-3.337765.1589523.028251-3.3390795.051.9376394.29333483.88065
2006q1 UK2.286166-3.016745.2359452.243834-2.716794.153342.6493364.18333388.92842
2006q2 UK1.51902-2.805195.500883.117647-2.7167952.6967794.61
2006q3 UK3.430695-3.715235.4928981.422638-2.716797.22.7411164.62
2006q4 UK3.101179-4.058635.5129622.072154-2.716799.313.101974.59666792.7727
2007q1 UK2.563637-4.475235.5391222.926362-2.8097100.30672.8562084.86333394.93712
2007q2 UK3.532664-3.562175.3924272.187336-2.809799.653342.9372885.206666100.0675
2007q3 UK2.711505-4.492825.3145723.588495-2.809799.463333.2441575.18333398.20632
2007q4 UK2.542081-2.508835.1677423.764586-2.809796.606672.8872964.793334100.9587
2008q1 UK3.288641-1.516245.2180062.404692-3.5704890.692.2788374.516667
2008q2 UK2.762983-3.020745.4023723.10035-3.5704888.123341.5288554.906667

Figure 11.  United States

Data for Figure 11 immediately follows

Data for Figure 11

TIME COUNTRYINFLATIONCURRACCTPERGDPUNEMPRATEREALINTRATEFISCBALPERGDPREALEFFEXRATEGDP4QCHANGEBONDRATEREALEQUITYINDEX
1970q1 US0.2437834.171836-2.03173127.20677.36666729.3199
1970q2 US0.3763074.758694-2.03173127.58337.71333325.54257
1970q3 US0.196065.181016-2.03173126.96337.4624.9672
1970q4 US0.0843395.81451-2.03173126.776.85333326.85551
1971q1 US4.9301680.2487485.9260320.746499-2.73046125.532.7309846.01666730.0842
1971q2 US4.881484-0.146195.9192891.93185-2.73046124.88673.1049146.24666631.12253
1971q3 US5.084054-0.188195.9946252.779279-2.73046123.85333.0116836.48333330.10469
1971q4 US4.595172-0.40745.9655021.551494-2.73046119.52674.3739175.8929.163
1972q1 US4.670345-0.568795.7941040.516322-1.31834115.35673.399046.03333331.47884
1972q2 US3.944681-0.551115.6844671.055319-1.31834113.865.1703676.14333331.98211
1972q3 US3.919529-0.41135.6099551.780471-1.31834113.05675.3294256.2931.67203
1972q4 US4.440475-0.35125.3302721.539525-1.31834113.41336.6670026.37333332.60176
1973q1 US4.0720710.0434294.9762563.847929-0.22962108.49677.4127636.60333331.88334
1973q2 US5.0232060.2545384.9154723.623461-0.22962103.18336.2289296.80666728.78004
1973q3 US5.9800640.7869474.8187225.186603-0.2296299.894.7462537.20666627.90879
1973q4 US6.6224710.9447744.794713.327528-0.22962100.87674.0742926.75333426.73789
1974q1 US7.3219650.4456125.1102191.848035-1.00668100.680.6967067.05333324.69355
1974q2 US8.1074790.0296245.1865144.249187-1.0066896.54-0.165467.54333422.3167
1974q3 US9.076384-0.077935.608494.153616-1.0066898.79333-0.604337.96333318.16332
1974q4 US10.065220.1367326.5808590.201451-1.0066898.1-1.948767.6716.21326
1975q1 US10.441.0718478.241331-3.2-5.1943395.50333-2.281687.5418.07451
1975q2 US9.6287771.2491288.852516-3.08878-5.1943394.53333-1.840718.0519.9942
1975q3 US8.5677310.98138.491244-1.11106-5.1943397.840.8118758.29666719.62986
1975q4 US7.3659571.1228288.283085-0.78596-5.1943398.313332.5074138.06333419.28983
1976q1 US6.200280.5790367.746881-0.67361-3.3214297.135.9368967.75333421.43086
1976q2 US5.7505460.3652287.5501430.299455-3.3214296.653345.9502267.77333421.72131
1976q3 US5.267295-0.018287.7232760.469371-3.3214297.064.74857.7322.19413
1976q4 US5.3308730.0345837.756449-0.10087-3.3214298.206674.1598447.1921.29477
1977q1 US5.853141-0.554227.516001-0.60314-2.1492796.953.1348337.35333321.19847
1977q2 US6.226793-0.604397.127611-0.46679-2.1492796.066674.3369577.3720.41002
1977q3 US6.082476-0.533586.8870660.407524-2.1492794.866675.6335487.35666719.92421
1977q4 US6.426347-1.110446.6351590.70032-2.1492792.356674.9095497.59666718.79467
1978q1 US6.284299-1.306056.3222831.069035-1.2768689.763344.0297728.0117.82397
1978q2 US6.658981-0.663915.9949451.244352-1.2768688.865.9511218.3218.86786
1978q3 US7.094747-0.627866.0168021.655253-1.2768685.093335.157678.4919.90127
1978q4 US7.033239-0.112375.8791894.080095-1.2768684.473346.4748768.8218.39412
1979q1 US7.300087-0.068825.8729423.606579-0.9294785.983336.3479659.10666718.721
1979q2 US7.92522-0.109355.7089732.741446-0.9294788.163332.5774279.11333418.69028
1979q3 US8.4115780.1419625.8632313.308422-0.9294787.696662.3139219.10333319.32359
1979q4 US8.297203-0.014735.9347956.429463-0.9294789.726671.30149510.4466718.7434
1980q1 US8.637546-0.507696.2915037.562455-2.5963290.633331.42546811.9866719.34298
1980q2 US8.386487-0.137917.3181394.330179-2.5963290.48333-0.7089910.4766718.53852
1980q3 US8.4969120.6219777.6751452.276422-2.5963287.94-1.5927610.9533320.77069
1980q4 US9.2506990.3267857.3928497.2993-2.5963289.43-0.0499712.4233321.86438
1981q1 US9.7073510.1261837.4207027.169316-2.2303691.526661.6374512.9620.95679
1981q2 US9.386140.1591767.3929018.310527-2.2303696.183332.89367113.7520.92123
1981q3 US8.9026950.2618687.4111969.490639-2.23036101.334.26232414.8466719.51968
1981q4 US7.9788970.0949828.2348136.354436-2.2303698.066671.17148214.0866718.66083
1982q1 US6.786663-0.035778.8372348.250004-4.84712101.6233-2.4875914.2933317.2386
1982q2 US6.1252560.4673889.4193478.921412-4.84712105.86-1.1689613.9316.86703
1982q3 US5.771717-0.493259.9364556.781616-4.84712112.0333-2.7505313.1166716.46833
1982q4 US5.033345-0.6030710.670014.856656-4.84712111.4233-1.4082110.6666719.68061
1983q1 US4.500954-0.2976110.390284.659046-5.60413108.211.47065710.5633321.11987
1983q2 US4.014781-0.8992910.095265.318552-5.60413109.98673.16556310.5433323.19292
1983q3 US3.626833-1.437729.3530796.449834-5.60413113.295.50046711.6266723.42951
1983q4 US3.308469-1.673978.5345096.548198-5.60413112.87337.43735711.6866723.25393
1984q1 US3.731133-2.197617.8643236.3522-4.74744113.058.14794611.9433322.19605
1984q2 US3.872983-2.398717.4711367.533684-4.74744113.59677.62396613.221.24209
1984q3 US3.650884-2.351217.444278.219116-4.74744119.19336.63633412.8666721.67991
1984q4 US3.530325-2.634997.2751416.246341-4.74744121.18675.42903211.7433322.29667
1985q1 US3.408851-2.283687.2719315.561149-5.01333125.54.41191211.5833323.68677
1985q2 US3.118629-2.746417.2806995.068037-5.01333122.90673.55628410.8133324.58932
1985q3 US2.73539-2.938357.2022655.341277-5.01333119.59674.13909910.3366725.07787
1985q4 US2.74782-3.206817.0457845.33218-5.01333113.484.0865369.7625.94286
1986q1 US2.14027-3.120127.0071615.696396-5.24892108.23334.1191928.55666628.72632
1986q2 US2.086143-3.225897.1717184.837191-5.24892103.58673.6638687.60333331.19011
1986q3 US2.248277-3.386726.9821863.96839-5.24892100.57673.0663887.30666731.15526
1986q4 US2.256515-3.45146.8262123.823485-5.24892100.80332.8032627.26333331.09599
1987q1 US2.56533-3.404146.6115773.748004-4.293296.732.507217.19333335.10505
1987q2 US2.594952-3.410236.2715194.498381-4.293293.573333.2054538.34333336.32803
1987q3 US2.760904-3.366676.0047584.399096-4.293294.473343.1554978.87666739.00604
1987q4 US2.832323-3.379415.8593955.061011-4.293289.926674.3842389.12333330.9241
1988q1 US2.855734-2.661775.7178594.050933-3.5596486.903344.2162188.41666731.21611
1988q2 US3.263014-2.283015.4772614.150319-3.5596485.784.3857018.9131.60455
1988q3 US3.630345-2.170295.4824334.709655-3.5596489.864.0147859.131.79718
1988q4 US3.655243-2.389715.34015.301424-3.5596486.483333.5944838.95666732.23152
1989q1 US3.935161-2.123465.2051115.861506-3.2214487.756674.1164759.20666733.7298
1989q2 US3.937458-1.84585.2340225.792542-3.2214490.583343.5073378.77333435.7772
1989q3 US3.534935-1.594395.2666525.358399-3.2214491.036673.684578.10666738.65987
1989q4 US3.4756-1.702995.3628685.107733-3.2214489.752.6270477.90666738.52402
1990q1 US3.539511-1.654615.3004684.830488-4.2404289.042.7656398.42333336.91482
1990q2 US3.742253-1.347025.3376294.684413-4.2404289.326672.3671098.67666637.63063
1990q3 US3.916414-1.472775.6878194.220252-4.2404286.263341.664368.70333335.91914
1990q4 US3.975621-0.975116.1141124.081045-4.2404282.806660.6521248.39666733.53216
1991q1 US3.9652930.6764276.5746022.871373-4.9150183.09-1.007588.01666636.958
1991q2 US3.4492170.1693416.8240762.68745-4.9150186.66333-0.616178.1339.41497
1991q3 US3.275358-0.277426.854132.537975-4.9150186.50333-0.141747.9439.86659
1991q4 US3.051385-0.354417.0975011.958615-4.9150183.196661.0849667.34666740.14166
1992q1 US2.473541-0.402457.3800231.713125-5.769483.336672.6268247.30333342.54495
1992q2 US2.379018-0.756117.5956181.604316-5.769483.386672.9395077.37666741.95469
1992q3 US2.122741-0.825527.6276261.227259-5.769480.556663.4343836.61666742.36101
1992q4 US2.116149-1.158927.4073881.440517-5.769484.193344.0622376.74333342.85244
1993q1 US2.290474-0.903427.1510110.926193-4.9448786.016673.1525166.2844.51809
1993q2 US2.294135-1.250987.0702040.909199-4.9448783.603332.69835.9944.62451
1993q3 US2.272113-1.27666.800950.924553-4.9448784.493332.2341685.61666745.48051
1993q4 US2.281885-1.650426.6205921.074782-4.9448785.683332.4749245.60666746.1668
1994q1 US2.110014-1.445876.557391.396652-3.5611186.103333.3664256.06666746.57884
1994q2 US1.980587-1.625926.1671952.429412-3.5611185.306664.156497.08333344.43653
1994q3 US2.187856-1.776956.0030812.715477-3.5611183.243334.2031467.33333344.95148
1994q4 US2.127537-2.015715.6212813.765796-3.5611183.086674.0315937.83666744.40206
1995q1 US2.155796-1.722815.4799744.084204-3.1401985.786673.2969187.48333345.58544
1995q2 US2.094748-1.745125.6767333.965252-3.1401980.546672.1805886.6249.12304
1995q3 US1.925505-1.451925.6606013.887829-3.1401982.712.4334126.32333352.57816
1995q4 US1.938397-1.230815.5743373.821603-3.1401985.133331.9971285.89333355.10365
1996q1 US1.945043-1.439655.5478653.391623-2.1821586.706672.4222365.9158.39553
1996q2 US1.940529-1.534865.4726743.496138-2.1821586.986663.8688526.7260.38872
1996q3 US1.784731-1.833575.2619693.725269-2.1821586.953333.891936.7860.20131
1996q4 US1.833611-1.571675.3130423.643055-2.1821587.706674.325696.34333365.22839
1997q1 US1.831885-1.778655.2268363.671449-0.7947790.934.3933246.56333469.58301
1997q2 US1.638716-1.39624.9778864.08795-0.7947791.424.275536.69666772.39236
1997q3 US1.671731-1.561324.861023.974935-0.7947792.316674.678226.24333381.09445
1997q4 US1.467609-2.036364.6836394.299058-0.7947794.856674.2504525.90666783.30353
1998q1 US1.084192-2.049874.6412264.5258080.4341598.516674.5806215.58666788.66763
1998q2 US1.089251-2.372354.417484.5307490.4341599.066673.7317975.59666795.47747
1998q3 US1.108834-2.679974.5324154.4378330.43415101.433.6394925.20333390.11859
1998q4 US1.128373-2.717244.4337264.0949610.4341596.576674.4122124.6790.87143
1999q1 US1.281361-2.791174.2884573.6519720.85154796.44.1569244.98333398.01797
1999q2 US1.46922-3.143634.2528063.5241130.85154797.514.3219935.54103.3669
1999q3 US1.453731-3.466244.2483593.9462690.85154796.674.3369825.883333102.167
1999q4 US1.535026-3.594734.0831194.5683070.85154795.193344.5914076.14101.4188
2000q1 US2.023111-4.105014.0497994.0402231.62142696.753.9992496.4899.99666
2000q2 US2.098582-4.057383.9487534.4880841.62142699.363334.7336096.176667103.5958
2000q3 US2.264734-4.386734.0307974.3919321.621426100.54673.4586775.893333105.7363
2000q4 US2.244246-4.45333.9194844.3790871.621426103.33332.214955.566667102.75
2001q1 US2.15169-4.291094.2306313.141643-0.38779104.53671.8394895.05100
2001q2 US2.48142-3.851954.411451.645247-0.38779106.80.5872315.2798.23568
2001q3 US2.380436-3.611374.819611.01623-0.38779106.22670.3501174.9891.60966
2001q4 US2.477569-3.447665.53682-0.38757-0.38779106.460.2252794.7788.65456
2002q1 US2.039353-4.053465.704395-0.17602-3.7905108.591.0245445.07666790.22237
2002q2 US1.635791-4.453995.8441190.237543-3.7905105.88671.2609575.187.62192
2002q3 US1.597387-4.429175.7294580.175947-3.7905102.742.2002914.2674.06182
2002q4 US1.647607-4.678765.848592-0.12761-3.7905103.04331.8575154.00666772.37692
2003q1 US2.060143-5.06985.872725-0.78014-4.83247100.571.4793863.9269.28345
2003q2 US2.023407-4.828156.150262-0.83341-4.8324796.891.7891933.6275.27914
2003q3 US2.164407-4.710336.104765-1.07774-4.8324797.323333.0066594.23333380.01356
2003q4 US2.153138-4.507335.818207-1.02647-4.8324793.306663.6107954.28666785.34826
2004q1 US2.291599-4.785525.679702-1.2216-4.3533191.294.0412674.0292.38029
2004q2 US2.896327-5.363385.586257-1.63966-4.3533194.383334.0443184.690.2095
2004q3 US2.941854-5.245295.439621-1.21519-4.3533193.416663.124164.30333388.95396
2004q4 US3.196712-5.972335.391785-0.93005-4.3533189.106673.0985294.17333394.2992
2005q1 US3.265681-5.727735.273019-0.45568-3.2587788.353333.102114.29666797.43162
2005q2 US2.85953-5.783975.1142970.39047-3.2587790.376662.89084.1696.19469
2005q3 US3.291974-5.388084.9821180.454693-3.2587791.973342.9508044.21333399.87407
2005q4 US3.423345-6.560064.9413490.889989-3.2587793.493332.6479334.49100.2112
2006q1 US3.314615-6.048094.7069641.428718-2.2396692.396673.0917094.57105.8475
2006q2 US3.473127-6.088154.6685611.713539-2.2396691.43.1084715.07107.0824
2006q3 US3.156809-6.367174.6590082.243191-2.2396691.133332.3619314.896667106.7994
2006q4 US2.7613-5.425694.4429432.5687-2.2396689.992.4089394.63114.0206
2007q1 US2.921248-5.830264.4963982.398752-2.8929890.951.244754.68117.0899
2007q2 US2.738642-5.651484.5134962.578025-2.8929889.766671.7530994.846667123.5798
2007q3 US2.438667-4.958984.6817273.011333-2.8929887.956672.7168434.73122.7709
2007q4 US2.525596-4.767694.7995662.51107-2.8929884.373342.3006534.26124.1462
2008q1 US2.121631-4.964814.9398891.125036-5.2924383.476672.5058043.663333112.0883
2008q2 US1.941641-5.124965.3173490.991692-5.2924382.683332.0329063.886667114.2727

Footnotes

*  Visiting Associate Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551 U.S.A. I owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to Hilary Croke and Steve Kamin, who worked with me on a previous attempt to get at the issues covered by this paper and who provided helpful comments and advice. I also thank Hilary for putting together the initial dataset and chart package and for collecting the IMF documents. The views expressed here are my own and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System. Return to text

1.  See, for example, Volcker (2005), The Financial Times (2008), and The Wall Street Journal (2008). Return to text

2.  This paper does not shed light on whether inflation, by itself, is harmful to growth. Indeed, there appear to be episodes in which growth was lackluster after high inflation even in the absence of tight macroeconomic policies. However, the differences in growth outcomes are clearly accentuated by differences in policy stance. Return to text

3.  Five of the 26 countries with BIS exchange rate data (Hong Kong, Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan) are not classified as industrial countries by the International Monetary Fund. These countries are now considered to be "advanced," but they were still viewed as developing countries in the 1970s and 1980s. Austria is also among the countries in the BIS dataset, but quarterly national accounts data for Austria are not available over most of our sample period. Austria did not experience a currency crash under the definition used here. Return to text

4.  Greek equity prices from 1979 through 1984 were obtained from the Bank of Greece Reports for the years 1982-85. Greek unemployment rates are available only at an annual frequency. The Greek current account for 1998 was obtained from Eurostat. Greek current account data were not available on a seasonally adjusted basis, and were adjusted by regressing on quarterly dummies. Spanish current account data for 1982 contained extremely large quarterly fluctuations that appear to be spurious. They were replaced by a flat value equal to the average for the year. Return to text

5.  The balances for New Zealand from 1971 through 1985 refer to fiscal years (ending March 31) and were obtained from the IMF Recent Economic Developments papers cited in th