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Research Staff and Resources

Research and Statistics Staff | Program Direction
photograph of Michael T. Kiley
Michael T. Kiley
Assistant Director
Division of Research and Statistics

Contact Information
202-452-2448
michael.t.kiley@frb.gov

Fields of Interest
Macroeconomics
Monetary Economics
Econometrics and Statistics

Education
Ph.D., Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, 1996
M.A., Economics, University of Maryland at College Park, 1993
B.A., Economics, University of Delaware, 1991

Professional Experience
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1996-present
Chief, Macroeconomics and Quantitative Studies, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2003-2007
Economist, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2001-2003
Economist, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1996-2003
Lecturer, The Johns Hopkins University, 2000-2001
Visiting Assistant Professor, The University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, 1998

Selected Publications

  • Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble (with Jane Dokko, Brian Doyle, Jinill Kim, and others), Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-49. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2009.
  • A Comparison of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, and a DSGE Model (with Rochelle Edge and Jean-Philippe Laforte), Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-10. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2009.
  • ''Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy ,'' in Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Proceedings. Boston, MA: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 2008.
  • Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices , Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-38. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2008.
  • Monetary policy actions and long-run inflation expectations, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-03. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2008.
  • ''An Estimated DSGE Model of the US Economy with an Application to Natural Rate Measures'' (with Rochelle Edge and Jean-Philippe Laforte), Journal of Economics and Control, vol. 32 (August 2008), pp. 2512-2535.
  • Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy: 2006 Version (with Rochelle Edge and Jean-Philippe Laforte), Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-53. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2007.
  • Habit Persistence, Non-separability Between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-48. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2007.
  • ''A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting,'' Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 39 (February 2007), pp. 101-125.
  • ''Stock prices and fundamentals: a macroeconomic perspective,'' Journal of Business, vol. 77 (2004), pp. 909-936.
  • ''How should unemployment benefits respond to the business cycle?'' Topics in Economic Analysis and Policy, vol. 3 (2003), pp. 1-20.
  • ''Why is inflation low when productivity growth is high?'' Economic Inquiry, vol. 41 (July 2003), pp. 392-406.
  • ''An analytical approach to the welfare cost of business cycles and the benefit from activist monetary policy,'' Contributions to Macroeconomics, vol. 3 (2003), pp. 1-24.
  • ''Partial adjustment and staggered price setting,'' Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 34 (May 2002), pp. 283-98.
  • ''Computers and growth with frictions: aggregate and disaggregate evidence,'' Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 55 (December 2001), pp. 171-216.
  • ''Endogenous price stickiness and business cycle persistence,'' Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 32 (February 2000), pp. 28-53.
  • ''The supply of skilled labour and skill-biased technological progress,'' The Economic Journal, vol. 109 (October 1999), pp. 708-24.
  • ''Predicting tax rate changes: insights from the permanent income hypothesis,'' Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 20 (January 1998), pp. 153-67.
  • ''Efficiency wages, nominal rigidities, and the cyclical behavior of real wages and marginal cost,'' Economics Letters, vol. 56 (October 1997), pp. 215-21.
  • ''The Lead of Output Over Inflation in Sticky-Price Models,'' Economics Bulletin, vol. 5 (2002), pp. 1-7.

Last update: January 7, 2010