Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2017-051

GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data

Accessible version of figures


Figure 1: CBO-implied and BOG Output Gaps

Date Output Gap CBO Output Gap BOG
1949Q1 -0.87  
1949Q2 -2.33  
1949Q3 -2.35  
1949Q4 -4.41  
1950Q1 -1.64  
1950Q2 0.17  
1950Q3 2.74  
1950Q4 3.42  
1951Q1 3.51  
1951Q2 3.94  
1951Q3 4.65  
1951Q4 3.57  
1952Q1 3.38  
1952Q2 2.31  
1952Q3 1.86  
1952Q4 3.93  
1953Q1 4.71  
1953Q2 4.51  
1953Q3 3.03  
1953Q4 0.62  
1954Q1 -0.67  
1954Q2 -1.31  
1954Q3 -0.96  
1954Q4 0.24  
1955Q1 2.33  
1955Q2 3.18  
1955Q3 3.76  
1955Q4 3.58  
1956Q1 2.41  
1956Q2 2.42  
1956Q3 1.54  
1956Q4 2.33  
1957Q1 2.14  
1957Q2 1.10  
1957Q3 1.19  
1957Q4 -0.68  
1958Q1 -4.15  
1958Q2 -4.31  
1958Q3 -2.82  
1958Q4 -1.32  
1959Q1 -0.28  
1959Q2 1.29  
1959Q3 0.27  
1959Q4 -0.19  
1960Q1 1.10  
1960Q2 -0.21  
1960Q3 -0.96  
1960Q4 -3.18  
1961Q1 -3.54  
1961Q2 -2.75  
1961Q3 -2.14  
1961Q4 -1.19  
1962Q1 -0.43  
1962Q2 -0.42  
1962Q3 -0.53  
1962Q4 -1.22  
1963Q1 -1.18  
1963Q2 -0.93  
1963Q3 -0.07  
1963Q4 -0.42  
1964Q1 0.68  
1964Q2 0.82  
1964Q3 1.12  
1964Q4 0.43  
1965Q1 1.81  
1965Q2 2.12  
1965Q3 3.07  
1965Q4 4.33  
1966Q1 5.68  
1966Q2 4.98  
1966Q3 4.58  
1966Q4 4.31  
1967Q1 4.08  
1967Q2 3.07  
1967Q3 2.81  
1967Q4 2.54  
1968Q1 3.48  
1968Q2 4.12  
1968Q3 3.80  
1968Q4 3.23  
1969Q1 3.77  
1969Q2 3.10  
1969Q3 2.76  
1969Q4 1.40  
1970Q1 0.32  
1970Q2 -0.37  
1970Q3 -0.31  
1970Q4 -2.16  
1971Q1 -0.32  
1971Q2 -0.53  
1971Q3 -0.51  
1971Q4 -0.99  
1972Q1 0.01  
1972Q2 1.52  
1972Q3 1.65  
1972Q4 2.49  
1973Q1 4.09  
1973Q2 4.37  
1973Q3 2.94  
1973Q4 2.98  
1974Q1 1.23  
1974Q2 0.58  
1974Q3 -1.34  
1974Q4 -2.65  
1975Q1 -4.77  
1975Q2 -4.86  
1975Q3 -4.08  
1975Q4 -3.57  
1976Q1 -2.14  
1976Q2 -2.18  
1976Q3 -2.47  
1976Q4 -2.54  
1977Q1 -2.21  
1977Q2 -1.11  
1977Q3 -0.22  
1977Q4 -1.09  
1978Q1 -1.62  
1978Q2 1.25  
1978Q3 1.29  
1978Q4 1.70  
1979Q1 1.02  
1979Q2 0.29  
1979Q3 0.22  
1979Q4 -0.25  
1980Q1 -0.57  
1980Q2 -3.15  
1980Q3 -3.80  
1980Q4 -2.44  
1981Q1 -0.90  
1981Q2 -2.20  
1981Q3 -1.65  
1981Q4 -3.48  
1982Q1 -5.88  
1982Q2 -6.07  
1982Q3 -7.18  
1982Q4 -7.86  
1983Q1 -7.28  
1983Q2 -5.74  
1983Q3 -4.53  
1983Q4 -3.23  
1984Q1 -2.03  
1984Q2 -1.08  
1984Q3 -0.92  
1984Q4 -0.96  
1985Q1 -0.81  
1985Q2 -0.74  
1985Q3 -0.05  
1985Q4 -0.15  
1986Q1 -0.06  
1986Q2 -0.42  
1986Q3 -0.25  
1986Q4 -0.53  
1987Q1 -0.64  
1987Q2 -0.32  
1987Q3 -0.21 -1.00
1987Q4 0.64 -0.75
1988Q1 0.41 -0.30
1988Q2 0.95 0.30
1988Q3 0.74 0.45
1988Q4 1.28 0.15
1989Q1 1.50 0.80
1989Q2 1.52 0.80
1989Q3 1.49 1.01
1989Q4 0.93 0.80
1990Q1 1.26 0.40
1990Q2 0.88 0.45
1990Q3 0.16 0.25
1990Q4 -1.44 -1.00
1991Q1 -2.65 -2.90
1991Q2 -2.60 -3.55
1991Q3 -2.84 -3.40
1991Q4 -3.12 -4.25
1992Q1 -2.65 -4.20
1992Q2 -2.28 -3.75
1992Q3 -2.03 -4.15
1992Q4 -1.78 -3.60
1993Q1 -2.34 -2.70
1993Q2 -2.52 -3.00
1993Q3 -2.82 -3.00
1993Q4 -2.29 -1.80
1994Q1 -2.12 -1.00
1994Q2 -1.59 -0.70
1994Q3 -1.84 -0.15
1994Q4 -1.53 0.65
1995Q1 -2.02 0.65
1995Q2 -2.48 -0.15
1995Q3 -2.42 -0.25
1995Q4 -2.50 0.05
1996Q1 -2.63 -0.35
1996Q2 -1.67 0.40
1996Q3 -1.52 0.60
1996Q4 -1.26 0.75
1997Q1 -1.30 1.20
1997Q2 -0.62 1.70
1997Q3 -0.19 1.95
1997Q4 -0.26 1.90
1998Q1 -0.14 2.05
1998Q2 -0.05 1.95
1998Q3 0.36 1.85
1998Q4 1.11 2.15
1999Q1 1.02 2.70
1999Q2 1.00 2.70
1999Q3 1.41 2.50
1999Q4 2.28 2.35
2000Q1 1.74 2.50
2000Q2 2.73 3.10
2000Q3 1.97 2.00
2000Q4 1.63 1.50
2001Q1 0.42 0.10
2001Q2 0.03 -0.10
2001Q3 -1.19 -0.50
2001Q4 -1.80 -1.85
2002Q1 -1.72 -1.45
2002Q2 -1.98 -1.55
2002Q3 -2.28 -1.40
2002Q4 -2.98 -1.70
2003Q1 -3.19 -2.35
2003Q2 -2.97 -2.65
2003Q3 -1.99 -2.55
2003Q4 -1.48 -1.95
2004Q1 -1.54 -1.80
2004Q2 -1.41 -1.40
2004Q3 -1.10 -1.35
2004Q4 -0.83 -1.35
2005Q1 -0.36 -1.10
2005Q2 -0.43 -1.10
2005Q3 -0.19 -0.45
2005Q4 -0.22 -0.40
2006Q1 0.37 -0.25
2006Q2 0.06 0.10
2006Q3 -0.45 0.50
2006Q4 -0.27 0.10
2007Q1 -0.78 0.25
2007Q2 -0.56 0.40
2007Q3 -0.42 0.55
2007Q4 -0.56 0.50
2008Q1 -1.71 -0.35
2008Q2 -1.67 -0.85
2008Q3 -2.57 -0.80
2008Q4 -5.11 -2.70
2009Q1 -6.88 -5.40
2009Q2 -7.34 -6.25
2009Q3 -7.32 -7.45
2009Q4 -6.64 -7.60
2010Q1 -6.46 -7.25
2010Q2 -5.75 -6.85
2010Q3 -5.32 -7.45
2010Q4 -4.92 -6.70
2011Q1 -5.57 -5.90
2011Q2 -5.09 -5.80
2011Q3 -5.14 -6.10
2011Q4 -4.28 -5.75
2012Q1 -3.89  
2012Q2 -3.73  
2012Q3 -3.93  
2012Q4 -4.25  
2013Q1 -3.92  
2013Q2 -4.12  
2013Q3 -3.76  
2013Q4 -3.19  
2014Q1 -3.88  
2014Q2 -3.30  
2014Q3 -2.47  
2014Q4 -2.28  
2015Q1 -2.15  
2015Q2 -1.87  
2015Q3 -1.75  
2015Q4 -1.91  
2016Q1 -2.09  

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Figure 2: Most Important Industries by State 2005-2015

Note: Percentages are the average contribution of the industry to the state's GDP between 2005 and 2015.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Economic Accounts
State First Industry Second Industry First Industry (%) Second Industry (%)
Alabama Manufacturing Real estate 17% 10%
Alaska Mining Transportation 31% 9%
Arizona Real estate Manufacturing 15% 9%
Arkansas Manufacturing Real estate 16% 10%
California Real estate Manufacturing 16% 12%
Colorado Real estate Professional 14% 9%
Connecticut Real estate Finance 15% 14%
Delaware Finance Real estate 28% 15%
District of Columbia Professional Real estate 21% 8%
Florida Real estate Health 17% 8%
Georgia Real estate Manufacturing 12% 11%
Hawaii Real estate Accommodation 19% 8%
Idaho Real estate Manufacturing 13% 12%
Illinois Manufacturing Real estate 13% 13%
Indiana Manufacturing Real estate 29% 10%
Iowa Manufacturing Finance 19% 11%
Kansas Manufacturing Real estate 15% 10%
Kentucky Manufacturing Real estate 18% 10%
Louisiana Manufacturing Real estate 23% 9%
Maine Real estate Health 14% 11%
Maryland Real estate Professional 16% 10%
Massachusetts Real estate Professional 14% 11%
Michigan Manufacturing Real estate 19% 12%
Minnesota Manufacturing Real estate 14% 12%
Mississippi Manufacturing Real estate 16% 10%
Missouri Manufacturing Real estate 13% 11%
Montana Real estate Health 13% 9%
Nebraska Manufacturing Real estate 12% 9%
Nevada Real estate Accommodation 15% 14%
New Hampshire Real estate Manufacturing 15% 11%
New Jersey Real estate Manufacturing 17% 9%
New Mexico Real estate Mining 12% 11%
New York Finance Real estate 17% 14%
North Carolina Manufacturing Real estate 21% 11%
North Dakota Mining Real estate 12% 10%
Ohio Manufacturing Real estate 18% 11%
Oklahoma Mining Manufacturing 15% 10%
Oregon Manufacturing Real estate 25% 13%
Pennsylvania Manufacturing Real estate 13% 12%
Rhode Island Real estate Health 16% 10%
South Carolina Manufacturing Real estate 17% 12%
South Dakota Finance Manufacturing 16% 9%
Tennessee Manufacturing Real estate 16% 11%
Texas Manufacturing Mining 15% 12%
Utah Manufacturing Real estate 13% 12%
Vermont Real estate Manufacturing 14% 11%
Virginia Real estate Professional 14% 12%
Washington Real estate Manufacturing 14% 14%
West Virginia Mining Manufacturing 13% 10%
Wisconsin Manufacturing Real estate 20% 12%
Wyoming Mining Real estate 32% 9%

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Figure 3: States with Negative Average Real GDP Annual Growth in 2007-2009

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Economic Accounts.
State Average Real GDP Growth (2007-2009)
Alabama -1.17%
Alaska 4.43%
Arizona -2.73%
Arkansas -0.13%
California -0.97%
Colorado 0.57%
Connecticut -1.20%
Delaware -0.60%
District of Columbia 2.00%
Florida -3.37%
Georgia -1.37%
Hawaii -0.40%
Idaho -0.47%
Illinois -1.50%
Indiana -1.57%
Iowa -0.20%
Kansas 0.23%
Kentucky -1.73%
Louisiana -0.20%
Maine -1.00%
Maryland 0.73%
Massachusetts 0.07%
Michigan -4.90%
Minnesota -1.13%
Mississippi -0.23%
Missouri -0.27%
Montana 0.60%
Nebraska 0.93%
Nevada -3.67%
New Hampshire -1.03%
New Jersey -1.00%
New Mexico 0.20%
New York 0.13%
North Carolina -0.27%
North Dakota 4.33%
Ohio -2.40%
Oklahoma 1.03%
Oregon 2.43%
Pennsylvania -0.03%
Rhode Island -2.17%
South Carolina -0.80%
South Dakota 3.40%
Tennessee -1.37%
Texas 1.47%
Utah 0.90%
Vermont -1.03%
Virginia 0.23%
Washington 1.47%
West Virginia 0.40%
Wisconsin -1.27%
Wyoming 4.47%

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Figure 4: Most Important Contributing Industries to GDP Growth 2005-2015

Note: The first percentage is the average contribution of the most important industry to GDP growth. The second percentage is the rate of real GDP growth between 2005 and 2015.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Economic Accounts.
State Most Important Contributing Industry Contribution(%)/Real GDP Growth(%)
Alabama Real Estate 3%/4%
Alaska Mining 12%/21%
Arizona Health 3%/4%
Arkansas Mining 9%/9%
California Information 6%/16%
Colorado Mining 4%/20%
Connecticut Information 2%/-3%
Delaware Real Estate 4%/6%
District of Columbia Real Estate 4%/16%
Florida Health 2%/3%
Georgia Professional 2%/5%
Hawaii Real Estate 4%/10%
Idaho Real Estate 4%/14%
Illinois Real Estate 2%/7%
Indiana Manufacturing 6%/11%
Iowa Agriculture 4%/15%
Kansas Real Estate 4%/17%
Kentucky Real Estate 3%/8%
Louisiana Real Estate 3%/-3%
Maine Real Estate 2%/-1%
Maryland Real Estate 3%/13%
Massachusetts Professional 4%/16%
Michigan Professional 1%/-2%
Minnesota Health 3%/10%
Mississippi Real Estate 3%/5%
Missouri Real Estate 4%/6%
Montana Real Estate 5%/19%
Nebraska Agriculture 6%/23%
Nevada Health 2%/-6%
New Hampshire Finance 4%/6%
New Jersey Professional 2%/3%
New Mexico Mining 7%/9%
New York Information 4%/12%
North Carolina Real Estate 4%/12%
North Dakota Mining 124%/91%
Ohio Mining 2%/7%
Oklahoma Mining 19%/32%
Oregon Manufacturing 26%/31%
Pennsylvania Mining 7%/15%
Rhode Island Finance 2%/-1%
South Carolina Real Estate 5%/12%
South Dakota Agriculture 5%/24%
Tennessee Health 4%/12%
Texas Mining 15%/44%
Utah Real Estate 6%/28%
Vermont Real Estate 3%/4%
Virginia Professional 4%/9%
Washington Information 6%/23%
West Virginia Mining 7%/11%
Wisconsin Real Estate 2%/8%
Wyoming Real Estate 5%/21%

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Figure 5: Smoothed Estimate of the Aggregate GDP Cycle from State-level Data

Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and author's calculations.
Date Smoothed cycle Lower bound 68% confidence set Upper bound 68% confidence set CBO-implied output gap
2005Q2 0.02 -0.04 0.08 -0.43
2005Q3 0.02 -0.07 0.12 -0.19
2005Q4 0.14 0.01 0.27 -0.22
2006Q1 0.08 -0.08 0.25 0.37
2006Q2 -0.03 -0.23 0.16 0.06
2006Q3 -0.17 -0.40 0.06 -0.45
2006Q4 -0.44 -0.70 -0.19 -0.27
2007Q1 -0.80 -1.09 -0.50 -0.78
2007Q2 -1.27 -1.59 -0.94 -0.56
2007Q3 -1.86 -2.21 -1.50 -0.42
2007Q4 -2.65 -3.03 -2.25 -0.56
2008Q1 -3.52 -3.94 -3.09 -1.71
2008Q2 -4.56 -5.03 -4.08 -1.67
2008Q3 -5.69 -6.21 -5.16 -2.57
2008Q4 -6.63 -7.21 -6.06 -5.11
2009Q1 -7.35 -7.96 -6.74 -6.88
2009Q2 -7.75 -8.39 -7.11 -7.34
2009Q3 -7.91 -8.56 -7.25 -7.32
2009Q4 -7.91 -8.58 -7.24 -6.64
2010Q1 -7.81 -8.48 -7.14 -6.46
2010Q2 -7.64 -8.32 -6.97 -5.75
2010Q3 -7.38 -8.06 -6.70 -5.32
2010Q4 -7.16 -7.84 -6.47 -4.92
2011Q1 -6.83 -7.51 -6.14 -5.57
2011Q2 -6.46 -7.15 -5.76 -5.09
2011Q3 -5.98 -6.67 -5.28 -5.14
2011Q4 -5.56 -6.25 -4.86 -4.28
2012Q1 -5.20 -5.90 -4.49 -3.89
2012Q2 -4.85 -5.56 -4.14 -3.73
2012Q3 -4.56 -5.27 -3.84 -3.93
2012Q4 -4.07 -4.79 -3.35 -4.25
2013Q1 -3.75 -4.48 -3.02 -3.92
2013Q2 -3.32 -4.05 -2.58 -4.12
2013Q3 -2.90 -3.63 -2.15 -3.76
2013Q4 -2.48 -3.22 -1.73 -3.19
2014Q1 -2.03 -2.78 -1.27 -3.88
2014Q2 -1.60 -2.36 -0.84 -3.30
2014Q3 -1.23 -1.99 -0.46 -2.47
2014Q4 -0.87 -1.64 -0.10 -2.28
2015Q1 -0.55 -1.32 0.22 -2.15
2015Q2 -0.27 -1.04 0.49 -1.87
2015Q3 0.03 -0.74 0.79 -1.75
2015Q4 0.34 -0.43 1.10 -1.91
2016Q1 0.63 -0.14 1.40 -2.09

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Figure 6: Largest Negative Output Gaps between 2006:Q2 and 2010:Q1

State Minimum Output Gap during this Period
Nevada -17.97%
Michigan -15.33%
Florida -14.02%
Arizona -12.92%
California -12.67%
Delaware -11.65%
Rhode Island -10.41%
Ohio -10.38%
Connecticut -9.89%
Georgia -9.60%
Minnesota -9.40%
Indiana -8.79%
New York -7.98%
Idaho -7.73%
Wisconsin -7.44%
Illinois -7.33%
Kentucky -7.28%
Iowa -7.11%
Tennessee -7.10%
Arkansas -6.97%
Montana -6.89%
Massachusetts -6.53%
South Carolina -6.52%
New Jersey -6.42%
Colorado -6.34%
Texas -6.27%
Hawaii -6.00%
Alabama -5.94%
Kansas -5.93%
Oklahoma -5.92%
Vermont -5.79%
New Hampshire -5.67%
Utah -5.54%
Washington -5.31%
Missouri -5.24%
Pennsylvania -5.13%
Maine -5.07%
North Carolina -4.24%
Nebraska -4.06%
Mississippi -4.00%
Virginia -3.05%
North Dakota -2.50%
Maryland -2.00%
District of Columbia -1.78%
South Dakota -1.15%
West Virginia -1.06%
Louisiana -0.32%
Alaska > 0
New Mexico > 0
Oregon > 0
Wyoming > 0

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Figure 7: State Output Gaps in 2016:Q1

State Output Gap
Wyoming -1.82%
Alaska -0.85%
Oregon -0.16%
West Virginia -0.13%
New Mexico -0.07%
Louisiana -0.05%
South Dakota 0.01%
Maryland 0.13%
District of Columbia 0.16%
Virginia 0.25%
North Dakota 0.27%
Nebraska 0.29%
Washington 0.33%
Mississippi 0.35%
North Carolina 0.35%
Oklahoma 0.40%
New Hampshire 0.40%
Alabama 0.42%
Utah 0.42%
Pennsylvania 0.43%
Illinois 0.46%
Montana 0.48%
Maine 0.50%
Hawaii 0.50%
Vermont 0.50%
Missouri 0.51%
Kansas 0.52%
Iowa 0.53%
Kentucky 0.55%
Texas 0.55%
South Carolina 0.56%
New Jersey 0.57%
Wisconsin 0.59%
Massachusetts 0.59%
Idaho 0.59%
Tennessee 0.60%
New York 0.65%
Indiana 0.71%
Minnesota 0.72%
Connecticut 0.74%
Arkansas 0.77%
Georgia 0.78%
Arizona 0.81%
Ohio 0.85%
Rhode Island 0.85%
Delaware 0.88%
Florida 1.02%
California 1.02%
Colorado 1.06%
Michigan 1.23%
Nevada 1.41%

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Figure 8: Estimate of the aggregate GDP trend

Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), and author's calculations
Date Log of GDP Estimated log of GDP trend CBO log of GBP trend
2005Q2 16.47 16.47 16.47
2005Q3 16.48 16.47 16.48
2005Q4 16.48 16.48 16.48
2006Q1 16.49 16.49 16.49
2006Q2 16.50 16.50 16.50
2006Q3 16.50 16.50 16.50
2006Q4 16.50 16.51 16.51
2007Q1 16.51 16.51 16.51
2007Q2 16.51 16.53 16.52
2007Q3 16.52 16.54 16.52
2007Q4 16.52 16.55 16.53
2008Q1 16.52 16.55 16.53
2008Q2 16.52 16.57 16.54
2008Q3 16.52 16.57 16.54
2008Q4 16.49 16.56 16.55
2009Q1 16.48 16.55 16.55
2009Q2 16.48 16.56 16.55
2009Q3 16.48 16.56 16.56
2009Q4 16.49 16.57 16.56
2010Q1 16.50 16.57 16.56
2010Q2 16.51 16.58 16.56
2010Q3 16.51 16.59 16.57
2010Q4 16.52 16.59 16.57
2011Q1 16.52 16.58 16.57
2011Q2 16.52 16.59 16.57
2011Q3 16.52 16.58 16.58
2011Q4 16.54 16.59 16.58
2012Q1 16.54 16.59 16.58
2012Q2 16.55 16.60 16.58
2012Q3 16.55 16.59 16.59
2012Q4 16.55 16.59 16.59
2013Q1 16.56 16.59 16.60
2013Q2 16.56 16.59 16.60
2013Q3 16.57 16.59 16.60
2013Q4 16.58 16.60 16.61
2014Q1 16.57 16.59 16.61
2014Q2 16.58 16.60 16.61
2014Q3 16.59 16.61 16.62
2014Q4 16.60 16.61 16.62
2015Q1 16.60 16.61 16.63
2015Q2 16.61 16.61 16.63
2015Q3 16.62 16.62 16.63
2015Q4 16.62 16.61 16.64
2016Q1 16.62 16.61 16.64

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Figure 9: Estimate of the GDP Trend for Selected States

Date Common GDP Trend North Dakota GDP Trend Texas GDP Trend Utah GDP Trend Oklahoma GDP Trend Indiana GDP Trend Kentucky GDP Trend Illinois GDP Trend Ohio GDP Trend Michigan GDP Trend Oregon GDP Trend South Dakota GDP Trend Maine GDP Trend Louisiana GDP Trend Nevada GDP Trend
2005Q2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2005Q3 0.83 0.16 0.20 1.79 0.46 0.42 0.58 0.57 0.72 -1.10 0.51 0.64 -0.35 -2.85 -0.98
2005Q4 1.29 1.09 0.86 4.32 -1.95 0.22 0.61 0.49 -0.29 -1.26 2.20 2.79 0.43 -4.10 -0.18
2006Q1 2.54 2.75 3.79 6.35 8.01 1.08 2.08 0.34 2.78 -1.71 7.26 0.75 0.69 -3.47 1.73
2006Q2 2.95 5.02 4.85 7.99 5.20 1.80 3.06 0.94 2.26 -1.34 8.22 1.87 1.90 -4.21 3.20
2006Q3 3.18 4.12 5.78 9.66 3.84 2.59 2.94 1.00 2.47 -1.41 9.52 1.93 0.87 -4.33 2.41
2006Q4 4.23 5.11 8.02 11.93 3.34 3.13 2.52 0.55 3.80 -2.55 10.58 1.24 2.49 -4.36 3.52
2007Q1 4.65 6.60 8.15 12.88 5.00 3.30 1.73 1.45 4.24 -0.97 8.91 4.00 0.58 -6.73 4.73
2007Q2 5.88 7.24 10.94 16.06 6.39 5.35 2.60 1.84 4.70 -0.36 10.33 5.99 2.00 -7.28 5.82
2007Q3 7.14 7.74 11.94 16.59 8.97 7.13 2.96 3.06 5.70 1.00 12.39 4.60 2.37 -7.03 7.72
2007Q4 8.28 10.26 12.88 17.40 8.77 8.40 4.67 3.59 6.75 0.10 14.45 5.56 2.25 -7.53 10.58
2008Q1 8.47 15.27 12.48 15.77 8.44 8.95 5.24 4.19 5.80 0.68 14.49 11.50 3.27 -8.68 10.36
2008Q2 10.01 16.63 13.30 17.47 10.61 10.60 7.15 5.87 6.76 2.07 16.32 10.43 3.99 -6.80 11.02
2008Q3 10.66 19.56 14.32 17.92 11.52 9.81 6.68 6.08 7.15 1.82 17.41 10.02 3.91 -6.99 12.52
2008Q4 9.47 20.70 16.61 15.88 14.40 8.20 5.47 3.37 5.33 0.83 15.06 6.58 2.35 -5.65 11.33
2009Q1 8.79 20.14 16.55 17.82 13.15 4.15 3.90 3.48 4.61 -3.41 14.72 10.18 1.67 -5.46 8.89
2009Q2 9.05 19.68 15.61 17.04 11.80 4.43 3.36 2.49 6.24 -2.55 13.80 10.20 2.46 -6.41 7.52
2009Q3 9.54 22.88 16.47 17.39 12.99 5.70 4.59 3.31 6.02 -2.26 15.02 11.94 3.67 -5.24 6.69
2009Q4 10.50 22.38 17.24 17.16 11.24 8.65 6.41 3.98 6.84 -0.86 15.17 11.17 4.36 -4.78 6.70
2010Q1 10.83 25.31 18.77 18.80 11.97 9.57 6.35 3.47 5.57 -0.56 19.13 11.25 3.64 -1.86 5.89
2010Q2 11.63 28.26 18.58 17.85 13.54 11.23 8.77 4.49 6.19 1.97 18.82 11.31 4.25 -0.87 6.34
2010Q3 12.04 29.74 19.35 18.97 13.97 12.17 9.87 5.47 6.92 3.77 20.07 13.85 4.88 0.21 6.65
2010Q4 12.45 32.23 19.93 20.49 14.00 12.40 9.65 6.37 7.10 2.97 20.56 13.62 3.63 -1.36 6.55
2011Q1 11.73 35.03 20.84 20.27 13.22 10.68 8.55 5.05 6.48 2.60 24.54 18.44 2.47 -4.56 4.27
2011Q2 12.08 35.47 21.11 20.63 16.45 10.43 8.83 5.65 7.41 1.45 24.14 18.67 1.98 -5.91 5.17
2011Q3 11.81 38.95 21.32 20.71 18.09 10.14 8.98 6.53 7.07 1.10 23.07 17.74 1.54 -6.06 3.91
2011Q4 12.51 45.92 22.53 21.33 19.94 10.62 10.42 7.75 7.90 3.19 24.58 21.54 2.72 -4.59 3.13
2012Q1 12.81 51.56 24.62 21.03 18.84 9.89 9.96 6.36 8.99 1.64 24.12 20.11 2.08 -3.91 2.16
2012Q2 12.93 57.62 24.73 20.76 19.90 9.94 10.00 7.03 8.67 1.17 22.93 20.41 2.55 -2.82 1.48
2012Q3 12.76 59.44 25.00 19.85 19.19 9.19 9.03 6.49 8.38 0.59 21.26 13.21 1.24 -5.32 0.24
2012Q4 12.30 60.26 26.80 20.63 23.42 7.13 6.85 4.84 6.39 -0.56 18.69 18.93 -1.54 -6.66 -2.37
2013Q1 12.67 56.58 27.47 21.56 20.58 10.13 9.39 5.83 7.09 0.40 20.01 18.67 0.29 -6.19 -2.21
2013Q2 12.43 57.54 27.78 21.95 22.34 8.78 8.31 5.17 5.80 -0.72 20.48 18.96 -1.06 -7.50 -3.94
2013Q3 12.78 60.78 28.70 23.10 21.98 9.38 8.55 4.92 5.40 -1.20 20.75 19.51 -0.99 -7.34 -4.21
2013Q4 13.33 61.81 29.02 22.42 23.12 9.02 8.37 5.16 6.06 -1.45 21.98 20.08 -1.06 -7.07 -3.88
2014Q1 12.58 59.92 28.65 22.92 22.46 8.99 7.38 4.90 4.89 -2.31 20.73 17.00 -1.59 -7.73 -3.96
2014Q2 13.13 64.09 29.53 23.02 23.01 9.38 8.21 5.62 5.30 -2.07 21.64 19.41 -1.03 -5.68 -4.02
2014Q3 13.96 65.42 31.38 23.65 25.16 9.93 8.17 7.17 5.80 -2.22 23.26 20.42 -0.69 -4.14 -3.86
2014Q4 14.18 68.15 32.10 24.25 24.64 10.37 8.40 7.12 5.17 -2.85 23.38 21.25 0.43 -3.50 -3.69
2015Q1 14.36 65.78 33.72 24.70 26.75 8.88 6.97 5.86 6.46 -3.97 25.16 18.67 -3.02 -3.57 -4.93
2015Q2 14.73 62.21 33.10 25.55 24.38 10.05 8.19 6.36 5.57 -3.31 25.81 20.61 -0.98 -3.78 -3.87
2015Q3 14.92 61.43 33.23 26.22 24.26 9.99 8.31 6.42 6.93 -3.55 27.51 22.44 -0.74 -3.36 -3.67
2015Q4 14.83 62.00 33.44 26.75 23.26 10.38 8.63 6.64 6.85 -3.54 27.72 22.93 -0.76 -3.38 -4.33
2016Q1 14.74 58.83 33.27 27.13 22.93 10.16 8.45 6.62 6.28 -3.47 28.78 22.21 -0.26 -3.58 -5.00

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Figure 10: Intercept and Loading Coefficients Estimates

State mu_{i} alpha_{i}
North Dakota 0.96 0.01
South Dakota 0.86 0.00
Wyoming 0.74 -0.04
Nebraska 0.74 0.02
Texas 0.72 0.04
Oregon 0.66 -0.02
Utah 0.65 0.03
Alaska 0.61 -0.03
Washington 0.58 0.03
Montana 0.48 0.04
California 0.46 0.08
Colorado 0.46 0.04
New Hampshire 0.43 0.03
Oklahoma 0.42 0.03
Iowa 0.41 0.04
Delaware 0.41 0.07
Maryland 0.39 0.01
District of Columbia 0.38 0.01
Idaho 0.37 0.05
New York 0.36 0.05
Tennessee 0.34 0.04
Virginia 0.34 0.02
Kansas 0.33 0.04
Arkansas 0.32 0.04
Pennsylvania 0.30 0.03
North Carolina 0.29 0.03
Arizona 0.29 0.08
Indiana 0.29 0.05
South Carolina 0.29 0.04
Massachusetts 0.29 0.04
Kentucky 0.27 0.04
West Virginia 0.26 0.00
Nevada 0.25 0.11
Hawaii 0.25 0.04
Wisconsin 0.24 0.04
Missouri 0.23 0.03
Georgia 0.22 0.06
Connecticut 0.21 0.06
Rhode Island 0.21 0.06
Mississippi 0.21 0.02
Illinois 0.21 0.04
Minnesota 0.20 0.06
New Mexico 0.18 -0.00
Louisiana 0.18 -0.00
Vermont 0.17 0.04
Florida 0.14 0.09
New Jersey 0.14 0.04
Ohio 0.13 0.06
Alabama 0.13 0.03
Maine 0.09 0.03
Michigan 0.07 0.09

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Figure 11: Variance Decomposition of the State's Cycles

State Output Gap
West Virginia 0.66%
New Mexico 2.16%
Louisiana 2.71%
South Dakota 8.54%
North Dakota 21.02%
Wyoming 40.48%
District of Columbia 48.20%
Alaska 48.71%
Oregon 60.88%
Oklahoma 70.34%
New Hampshire 81.08%
Nebraska 83.36%
Maryland 83.83%
Mississippi 85.84%
Washington 88.75%
Arkansas 90.08%
North Carolina 90.64%
Colorado 92.15%
Texas 93.51%
Massachusetts 93.68%
Vermont 93.72%
Utah 93.73%
Maine 94.05%
Delaware 94.28%
Alabama 94.63%
Missouri 94.66%
Iowa 94.96%
Virginia 95.66%
Pennsylvania 95.72%
South Carolina 95.75%
Illinois 96.56%
Montana 96.58%
Kentucky 96.73%
Minnesota 97.08%
Indiana 97.10%
Tennessee 97.12%
Idaho 97.35%
Hawaii 97.36%
Wisconsin 97.98%
New Jersey 98.07%
Ohio 98.15%
Kansas 98.32%
Rhode Island 98.65%
Arizona 99.10%
New York 99.22%
Florida 99.31%
Michigan 99.33%
Connecticut 99.63%
Georgia 99.79%
California 99.98%
Nevada 99.99%

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Figure 12: Okun's Law Coefficients ( $$ \theta _{1i}+\theta _{2i}$$)

State Output Gap
Colorado -0.50
California -0.46
Virginia -0.46
Missouri -0.43
New Jersey -0.42
Nevada -0.41
Rhode Island -0.38
Idaho -0.36
Illinois -0.35
Connecticut -0.35
Washington -0.35
Alabama -0.34
Georgia -0.33
Florida -0.33
Arizona -0.31
District of Columbia -0.30
Texas -0.29
Michigan -0.26
New York -0.25
Hawaii -0.24
West Virginia -0.24
Massachusetts -0.23
Kansas -0.22
Kentucky -0.22
Pennsylvania -0.22
Ohio -0.21
Montana -0.20
Tennessee -0.20
Utah -0.18
South Carolina -0.17
Mississippi -0.17
Minnesota -0.16
Wisconsin -0.16
Indiana -0.15
New Mexico -0.15
North Carolina -0.13
Maine -0.12
Louisiana -0.12
Vermont -0.10
Wyoming -0.09
Maryland -0.08
Arkansas -0.08
Delaware -0.07
Oklahoma -0.05
Oregon -0.05
Nebraska -0.04
Iowa -0.03
Alaska -0.02
New Hampshire -0.01
North Dakota -0.00
South Dakota 0.01

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Figure 13: Smoothed Estimate of the GDP Cycle from Aggregate Data

Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and author's calculations.
Date Smoothed cycle Lower bound 68% confidence set Upper bound 68% confidence set CBO-implied output gap
2005Q2 0.11 -0.07 0.30 -0.43
2005Q3 0.34 0.01 0.68 -0.19
2005Q4 0.58 0.12 1.05 -0.22
2006Q1 0.72 0.14 1.30 0.37
2006Q2 0.85 0.17 1.54 0.06
2006Q3 0.94 0.16 1.71 -0.45
2006Q4 0.96 0.09 1.82 -0.27
2007Q1 0.94 -0.02 1.90 -0.78
2007Q2 0.87 -0.18 1.93 -0.56
2007Q3 0.62 -0.51 1.78 -0.42
2007Q4 0.10 -1.11 1.33 -0.56
2008Q1 -0.65 -1.95 0.65 -1.71
2008Q2 -1.75 -3.11 -0.38 -1.67
2008Q3 -3.17 -4.60 -1.74 -2.57
2008Q4 -4.31 -5.81 -2.80 -5.11
2009Q1 -4.91 -6.46 -3.35 -6.88
2009Q2 -5.15 -6.74 -3.56 -7.34
2009Q3 -5.04 -6.64 -3.43 -7.32
2009Q4 -4.81 -6.42 -3.20 -6.64
2010Q1 -4.53 -6.16 -2.91 -6.46
2010Q2 -4.28 -5.89 -2.64 -5.75
2010Q3 -3.95 -5.57 -2.33 -5.32
2010Q4 -3.84 -5.48 -2.22 -4.92
2011Q1 -3.61 -5.23 -1.99 -5.57
2011Q2 -3.28 -4.89 -1.67 -5.09
2011Q3 -2.90 -4.50 -1.31 -5.14
2011Q4 -2.62 -4.22 -1.04 -4.28
2012Q1 -2.39 -3.98 -0.82 -3.89
2012Q2 -2.22 -3.80 -0.65 -3.73
2012Q3 -2.08 -3.65 -0.52 -3.93
2012Q4 -1.84 -3.41 -0.29 -4.25
2013Q1 -1.58 -3.15 -0.03 -3.92
2013Q2 -1.19 -2.76 0.35 -4.12
2013Q3 -0.81 -2.39 0.73 -3.76
2013Q4 -0.46 -2.06 1.10 -3.19
2014Q1 -0.10 -1.71 1.48 -3.88
2014Q2 0.33 -1.29 1.94 -3.30
2014Q3 0.63 -1.04 2.26 -2.47
2014Q4 0.89 -0.80 2.57 -2.28
2015Q1 1.14 -0.57 2.85 -2.15
2015Q2 1.32 -0.39 3.05 -1.87
2015Q3 1.39 -0.33 3.13 -1.75
2015Q4 1.37 -0.36 3.11 -1.91
2016Q1 1.30 -0.43 3.04 -2.09

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