Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2017-051
GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data
Accessible version of figures
Figure 1: CBO-implied and BOG Output Gaps
Date |
Output Gap CBO |
Output Gap BOG |
1949Q1 |
-0.87 |
|
1949Q2 |
-2.33 |
|
1949Q3 |
-2.35 |
|
1949Q4 |
-4.41 |
|
1950Q1 |
-1.64 |
|
1950Q2 |
0.17 |
|
1950Q3 |
2.74 |
|
1950Q4 |
3.42 |
|
1951Q1 |
3.51 |
|
1951Q2 |
3.94 |
|
1951Q3 |
4.65 |
|
1951Q4 |
3.57 |
|
1952Q1 |
3.38 |
|
1952Q2 |
2.31 |
|
1952Q3 |
1.86 |
|
1952Q4 |
3.93 |
|
1953Q1 |
4.71 |
|
1953Q2 |
4.51 |
|
1953Q3 |
3.03 |
|
1953Q4 |
0.62 |
|
1954Q1 |
-0.67 |
|
1954Q2 |
-1.31 |
|
1954Q3 |
-0.96 |
|
1954Q4 |
0.24 |
|
1955Q1 |
2.33 |
|
1955Q2 |
3.18 |
|
1955Q3 |
3.76 |
|
1955Q4 |
3.58 |
|
1956Q1 |
2.41 |
|
1956Q2 |
2.42 |
|
1956Q3 |
1.54 |
|
1956Q4 |
2.33 |
|
1957Q1 |
2.14 |
|
1957Q2 |
1.10 |
|
1957Q3 |
1.19 |
|
1957Q4 |
-0.68 |
|
1958Q1 |
-4.15 |
|
1958Q2 |
-4.31 |
|
1958Q3 |
-2.82 |
|
1958Q4 |
-1.32 |
|
1959Q1 |
-0.28 |
|
1959Q2 |
1.29 |
|
1959Q3 |
0.27 |
|
1959Q4 |
-0.19 |
|
1960Q1 |
1.10 |
|
1960Q2 |
-0.21 |
|
1960Q3 |
-0.96 |
|
1960Q4 |
-3.18 |
|
1961Q1 |
-3.54 |
|
1961Q2 |
-2.75 |
|
1961Q3 |
-2.14 |
|
1961Q4 |
-1.19 |
|
1962Q1 |
-0.43 |
|
1962Q2 |
-0.42 |
|
1962Q3 |
-0.53 |
|
1962Q4 |
-1.22 |
|
1963Q1 |
-1.18 |
|
1963Q2 |
-0.93 |
|
1963Q3 |
-0.07 |
|
1963Q4 |
-0.42 |
|
1964Q1 |
0.68 |
|
1964Q2 |
0.82 |
|
1964Q3 |
1.12 |
|
1964Q4 |
0.43 |
|
1965Q1 |
1.81 |
|
1965Q2 |
2.12 |
|
1965Q3 |
3.07 |
|
1965Q4 |
4.33 |
|
1966Q1 |
5.68 |
|
1966Q2 |
4.98 |
|
1966Q3 |
4.58 |
|
1966Q4 |
4.31 |
|
1967Q1 |
4.08 |
|
1967Q2 |
3.07 |
|
1967Q3 |
2.81 |
|
1967Q4 |
2.54 |
|
1968Q1 |
3.48 |
|
1968Q2 |
4.12 |
|
1968Q3 |
3.80 |
|
1968Q4 |
3.23 |
|
1969Q1 |
3.77 |
|
1969Q2 |
3.10 |
|
1969Q3 |
2.76 |
|
1969Q4 |
1.40 |
|
1970Q1 |
0.32 |
|
1970Q2 |
-0.37 |
|
1970Q3 |
-0.31 |
|
1970Q4 |
-2.16 |
|
1971Q1 |
-0.32 |
|
1971Q2 |
-0.53 |
|
1971Q3 |
-0.51 |
|
1971Q4 |
-0.99 |
|
1972Q1 |
0.01 |
|
1972Q2 |
1.52 |
|
1972Q3 |
1.65 |
|
1972Q4 |
2.49 |
|
1973Q1 |
4.09 |
|
1973Q2 |
4.37 |
|
1973Q3 |
2.94 |
|
1973Q4 |
2.98 |
|
1974Q1 |
1.23 |
|
1974Q2 |
0.58 |
|
1974Q3 |
-1.34 |
|
1974Q4 |
-2.65 |
|
1975Q1 |
-4.77 |
|
1975Q2 |
-4.86 |
|
1975Q3 |
-4.08 |
|
1975Q4 |
-3.57 |
|
1976Q1 |
-2.14 |
|
1976Q2 |
-2.18 |
|
1976Q3 |
-2.47 |
|
1976Q4 |
-2.54 |
|
1977Q1 |
-2.21 |
|
1977Q2 |
-1.11 |
|
1977Q3 |
-0.22 |
|
1977Q4 |
-1.09 |
|
1978Q1 |
-1.62 |
|
1978Q2 |
1.25 |
|
1978Q3 |
1.29 |
|
1978Q4 |
1.70 |
|
1979Q1 |
1.02 |
|
1979Q2 |
0.29 |
|
1979Q3 |
0.22 |
|
1979Q4 |
-0.25 |
|
1980Q1 |
-0.57 |
|
1980Q2 |
-3.15 |
|
1980Q3 |
-3.80 |
|
1980Q4 |
-2.44 |
|
1981Q1 |
-0.90 |
|
1981Q2 |
-2.20 |
|
1981Q3 |
-1.65 |
|
1981Q4 |
-3.48 |
|
1982Q1 |
-5.88 |
|
1982Q2 |
-6.07 |
|
1982Q3 |
-7.18 |
|
1982Q4 |
-7.86 |
|
1983Q1 |
-7.28 |
|
1983Q2 |
-5.74 |
|
1983Q3 |
-4.53 |
|
1983Q4 |
-3.23 |
|
1984Q1 |
-2.03 |
|
1984Q2 |
-1.08 |
|
1984Q3 |
-0.92 |
|
1984Q4 |
-0.96 |
|
1985Q1 |
-0.81 |
|
1985Q2 |
-0.74 |
|
1985Q3 |
-0.05 |
|
1985Q4 |
-0.15 |
|
1986Q1 |
-0.06 |
|
1986Q2 |
-0.42 |
|
1986Q3 |
-0.25 |
|
1986Q4 |
-0.53 |
|
1987Q1 |
-0.64 |
|
1987Q2 |
-0.32 |
|
1987Q3 |
-0.21 |
-1.00 |
1987Q4 |
0.64 |
-0.75 |
1988Q1 |
0.41 |
-0.30 |
1988Q2 |
0.95 |
0.30 |
1988Q3 |
0.74 |
0.45 |
1988Q4 |
1.28 |
0.15 |
1989Q1 |
1.50 |
0.80 |
1989Q2 |
1.52 |
0.80 |
1989Q3 |
1.49 |
1.01 |
1989Q4 |
0.93 |
0.80 |
1990Q1 |
1.26 |
0.40 |
1990Q2 |
0.88 |
0.45 |
1990Q3 |
0.16 |
0.25 |
1990Q4 |
-1.44 |
-1.00 |
1991Q1 |
-2.65 |
-2.90 |
1991Q2 |
-2.60 |
-3.55 |
1991Q3 |
-2.84 |
-3.40 |
1991Q4 |
-3.12 |
-4.25 |
1992Q1 |
-2.65 |
-4.20 |
1992Q2 |
-2.28 |
-3.75 |
1992Q3 |
-2.03 |
-4.15 |
1992Q4 |
-1.78 |
-3.60 |
1993Q1 |
-2.34 |
-2.70 |
1993Q2 |
-2.52 |
-3.00 |
1993Q3 |
-2.82 |
-3.00 |
1993Q4 |
-2.29 |
-1.80 |
1994Q1 |
-2.12 |
-1.00 |
1994Q2 |
-1.59 |
-0.70 |
1994Q3 |
-1.84 |
-0.15 |
1994Q4 |
-1.53 |
0.65 |
1995Q1 |
-2.02 |
0.65 |
1995Q2 |
-2.48 |
-0.15 |
1995Q3 |
-2.42 |
-0.25 |
1995Q4 |
-2.50 |
0.05 |
1996Q1 |
-2.63 |
-0.35 |
1996Q2 |
-1.67 |
0.40 |
1996Q3 |
-1.52 |
0.60 |
1996Q4 |
-1.26 |
0.75 |
1997Q1 |
-1.30 |
1.20 |
1997Q2 |
-0.62 |
1.70 |
1997Q3 |
-0.19 |
1.95 |
1997Q4 |
-0.26 |
1.90 |
1998Q1 |
-0.14 |
2.05 |
1998Q2 |
-0.05 |
1.95 |
1998Q3 |
0.36 |
1.85 |
1998Q4 |
1.11 |
2.15 |
1999Q1 |
1.02 |
2.70 |
1999Q2 |
1.00 |
2.70 |
1999Q3 |
1.41 |
2.50 |
1999Q4 |
2.28 |
2.35 |
2000Q1 |
1.74 |
2.50 |
2000Q2 |
2.73 |
3.10 |
2000Q3 |
1.97 |
2.00 |
2000Q4 |
1.63 |
1.50 |
2001Q1 |
0.42 |
0.10 |
2001Q2 |
0.03 |
-0.10 |
2001Q3 |
-1.19 |
-0.50 |
2001Q4 |
-1.80 |
-1.85 |
2002Q1 |
-1.72 |
-1.45 |
2002Q2 |
-1.98 |
-1.55 |
2002Q3 |
-2.28 |
-1.40 |
2002Q4 |
-2.98 |
-1.70 |
2003Q1 |
-3.19 |
-2.35 |
2003Q2 |
-2.97 |
-2.65 |
2003Q3 |
-1.99 |
-2.55 |
2003Q4 |
-1.48 |
-1.95 |
2004Q1 |
-1.54 |
-1.80 |
2004Q2 |
-1.41 |
-1.40 |
2004Q3 |
-1.10 |
-1.35 |
2004Q4 |
-0.83 |
-1.35 |
2005Q1 |
-0.36 |
-1.10 |
2005Q2 |
-0.43 |
-1.10 |
2005Q3 |
-0.19 |
-0.45 |
2005Q4 |
-0.22 |
-0.40 |
2006Q1 |
0.37 |
-0.25 |
2006Q2 |
0.06 |
0.10 |
2006Q3 |
-0.45 |
0.50 |
2006Q4 |
-0.27 |
0.10 |
2007Q1 |
-0.78 |
0.25 |
2007Q2 |
-0.56 |
0.40 |
2007Q3 |
-0.42 |
0.55 |
2007Q4 |
-0.56 |
0.50 |
2008Q1 |
-1.71 |
-0.35 |
2008Q2 |
-1.67 |
-0.85 |
2008Q3 |
-2.57 |
-0.80 |
2008Q4 |
-5.11 |
-2.70 |
2009Q1 |
-6.88 |
-5.40 |
2009Q2 |
-7.34 |
-6.25 |
2009Q3 |
-7.32 |
-7.45 |
2009Q4 |
-6.64 |
-7.60 |
2010Q1 |
-6.46 |
-7.25 |
2010Q2 |
-5.75 |
-6.85 |
2010Q3 |
-5.32 |
-7.45 |
2010Q4 |
-4.92 |
-6.70 |
2011Q1 |
-5.57 |
-5.90 |
2011Q2 |
-5.09 |
-5.80 |
2011Q3 |
-5.14 |
-6.10 |
2011Q4 |
-4.28 |
-5.75 |
2012Q1 |
-3.89 |
|
2012Q2 |
-3.73 |
|
2012Q3 |
-3.93 |
|
2012Q4 |
-4.25 |
|
2013Q1 |
-3.92 |
|
2013Q2 |
-4.12 |
|
2013Q3 |
-3.76 |
|
2013Q4 |
-3.19 |
|
2014Q1 |
-3.88 |
|
2014Q2 |
-3.30 |
|
2014Q3 |
-2.47 |
|
2014Q4 |
-2.28 |
|
2015Q1 |
-2.15 |
|
2015Q2 |
-1.87 |
|
2015Q3 |
-1.75 |
|
2015Q4 |
-1.91 |
|
2016Q1 |
-2.09 |
|
Return to text
Figure 2: Most Important Industries by State 2005-2015
Note: Percentages are the average contribution of the industry to the state's GDP between 2005 and 2015.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA),
Regional Economic
Accounts
State |
First Industry |
Second Industry |
First Industry (%) |
Second Industry (%) |
Alabama |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
17% |
10% |
Alaska |
Mining |
Transportation |
31% |
9% |
Arizona |
Real estate |
Manufacturing |
15% |
9% |
Arkansas |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
16% |
10% |
California |
Real estate |
Manufacturing |
16% |
12% |
Colorado |
Real estate |
Professional |
14% |
9% |
Connecticut |
Real estate |
Finance |
15% |
14% |
Delaware |
Finance |
Real estate |
28% |
15% |
District of Columbia |
Professional |
Real estate |
21% |
8% |
Florida |
Real estate |
Health |
17% |
8% |
Georgia |
Real estate |
Manufacturing |
12% |
11% |
Hawaii |
Real estate |
Accommodation |
19% |
8% |
Idaho |
Real estate |
Manufacturing |
13% |
12% |
Illinois |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
13% |
13% |
Indiana |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
29% |
10% |
Iowa |
Manufacturing |
Finance |
19% |
11% |
Kansas |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
15% |
10% |
Kentucky |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
18% |
10% |
Louisiana |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
23% |
9% |
Maine |
Real estate |
Health |
14% |
11% |
Maryland |
Real estate |
Professional |
16% |
10% |
Massachusetts |
Real estate |
Professional |
14% |
11% |
Michigan |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
19% |
12% |
Minnesota |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
14% |
12% |
Mississippi |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
16% |
10% |
Missouri |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
13% |
11% |
Montana |
Real estate |
Health |
13% |
9% |
Nebraska |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
12% |
9% |
Nevada |
Real estate |
Accommodation |
15% |
14% |
New Hampshire |
Real estate |
Manufacturing |
15% |
11% |
New Jersey |
Real estate |
Manufacturing |
17% |
9% |
New Mexico |
Real estate |
Mining |
12% |
11% |
New York |
Finance |
Real estate |
17% |
14% |
North Carolina |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
21% |
11% |
North Dakota |
Mining |
Real estate |
12% |
10% |
Ohio |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
18% |
11% |
Oklahoma |
Mining |
Manufacturing |
15% |
10% |
Oregon |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
25% |
13% |
Pennsylvania |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
13% |
12% |
Rhode Island |
Real estate |
Health |
16% |
10% |
South Carolina |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
17% |
12% |
South Dakota |
Finance |
Manufacturing |
16% |
9% |
Tennessee |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
16% |
11% |
Texas |
Manufacturing |
Mining |
15% |
12% |
Utah |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
13% |
12% |
Vermont |
Real estate |
Manufacturing |
14% |
11% |
Virginia |
Real estate |
Professional |
14% |
12% |
Washington |
Real estate |
Manufacturing |
14% |
14% |
West Virginia |
Mining |
Manufacturing |
13% |
10% |
Wisconsin |
Manufacturing |
Real estate |
20% |
12% |
Wyoming |
Mining |
Real estate |
32% |
9% |
Return to text
Figure 3: States with Negative Average Real GDP Annual Growth in 2007-2009
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA),
Regional Economic
Accounts.
State |
Average Real GDP Growth (2007-2009) |
Alabama |
-1.17% |
Alaska |
4.43% |
Arizona |
-2.73% |
Arkansas |
-0.13% |
California |
-0.97% |
Colorado |
0.57% |
Connecticut |
-1.20% |
Delaware |
-0.60% |
District of Columbia |
2.00% |
Florida |
-3.37% |
Georgia |
-1.37% |
Hawaii |
-0.40% |
Idaho |
-0.47% |
Illinois |
-1.50% |
Indiana |
-1.57% |
Iowa |
-0.20% |
Kansas |
0.23% |
Kentucky |
-1.73% |
Louisiana |
-0.20% |
Maine |
-1.00% |
Maryland |
0.73% |
Massachusetts |
0.07% |
Michigan |
-4.90% |
Minnesota |
-1.13% |
Mississippi |
-0.23% |
Missouri |
-0.27% |
Montana |
0.60% |
Nebraska |
0.93% |
Nevada |
-3.67% |
New Hampshire |
-1.03% |
New Jersey |
-1.00% |
New Mexico |
0.20% |
New York |
0.13% |
North Carolina |
-0.27% |
North Dakota |
4.33% |
Ohio |
-2.40% |
Oklahoma |
1.03% |
Oregon |
2.43% |
Pennsylvania |
-0.03% |
Rhode Island |
-2.17% |
South Carolina |
-0.80% |
South Dakota |
3.40% |
Tennessee |
-1.37% |
Texas |
1.47% |
Utah |
0.90% |
Vermont |
-1.03% |
Virginia |
0.23% |
Washington |
1.47% |
West Virginia |
0.40% |
Wisconsin |
-1.27% |
Wyoming |
4.47% |
Return to text
Figure 4: Most Important Contributing Industries to GDP Growth 2005-2015
Note: The first percentage is the average contribution of the most important industry to GDP growth. The second percentage is the rate of real GDP growth between 2005 and 2015.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA),
Regional Economic Accounts.
State |
Most Important Contributing Industry |
Contribution(%)/Real GDP Growth(%) |
Alabama |
Real Estate |
3%/4% |
Alaska |
Mining |
12%/21% |
Arizona |
Health |
3%/4% |
Arkansas |
Mining |
9%/9% |
California |
Information |
6%/16% |
Colorado |
Mining |
4%/20% |
Connecticut |
Information |
2%/-3% |
Delaware |
Real Estate |
4%/6% |
District of Columbia |
Real Estate |
4%/16% |
Florida |
Health |
2%/3% |
Georgia |
Professional |
2%/5% |
Hawaii |
Real Estate |
4%/10% |
Idaho |
Real Estate |
4%/14% |
Illinois |
Real Estate |
2%/7% |
Indiana |
Manufacturing |
6%/11% |
Iowa |
Agriculture |
4%/15% |
Kansas |
Real Estate |
4%/17% |
Kentucky |
Real Estate |
3%/8% |
Louisiana |
Real Estate |
3%/-3% |
Maine |
Real Estate |
2%/-1% |
Maryland |
Real Estate |
3%/13% |
Massachusetts |
Professional |
4%/16% |
Michigan |
Professional |
1%/-2% |
Minnesota |
Health |
3%/10% |
Mississippi |
Real Estate |
3%/5% |
Missouri |
Real Estate |
4%/6% |
Montana |
Real Estate |
5%/19% |
Nebraska |
Agriculture |
6%/23% |
Nevada |
Health |
2%/-6% |
New Hampshire |
Finance |
4%/6% |
New Jersey |
Professional |
2%/3% |
New Mexico |
Mining |
7%/9% |
New York |
Information |
4%/12% |
North Carolina |
Real Estate |
4%/12% |
North Dakota |
Mining |
124%/91% |
Ohio |
Mining |
2%/7% |
Oklahoma |
Mining |
19%/32% |
Oregon |
Manufacturing |
26%/31% |
Pennsylvania |
Mining |
7%/15% |
Rhode Island |
Finance |
2%/-1% |
South Carolina |
Real Estate |
5%/12% |
South Dakota |
Agriculture |
5%/24% |
Tennessee |
Health |
4%/12% |
Texas |
Mining |
15%/44% |
Utah |
Real Estate |
6%/28% |
Vermont |
Real Estate |
3%/4% |
Virginia |
Professional |
4%/9% |
Washington |
Information |
6%/23% |
West Virginia |
Mining |
7%/11% |
Wisconsin |
Real Estate |
2%/8% |
Wyoming |
Real Estate |
5%/21% |
Return to text
Figure 5: Smoothed Estimate of the Aggregate GDP Cycle from State-level Data
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and author's calculations.
Date |
Smoothed cycle |
Lower bound 68% confidence set |
Upper bound 68% confidence set |
CBO-implied output gap |
2005Q2 |
0.02 |
-0.04 |
0.08 |
-0.43 |
2005Q3 |
0.02 |
-0.07 |
0.12 |
-0.19 |
2005Q4 |
0.14 |
0.01 |
0.27 |
-0.22 |
2006Q1 |
0.08 |
-0.08 |
0.25 |
0.37 |
2006Q2 |
-0.03 |
-0.23 |
0.16 |
0.06 |
2006Q3 |
-0.17 |
-0.40 |
0.06 |
-0.45 |
2006Q4 |
-0.44 |
-0.70 |
-0.19 |
-0.27 |
2007Q1 |
-0.80 |
-1.09 |
-0.50 |
-0.78 |
2007Q2 |
-1.27 |
-1.59 |
-0.94 |
-0.56 |
2007Q3 |
-1.86 |
-2.21 |
-1.50 |
-0.42 |
2007Q4 |
-2.65 |
-3.03 |
-2.25 |
-0.56 |
2008Q1 |
-3.52 |
-3.94 |
-3.09 |
-1.71 |
2008Q2 |
-4.56 |
-5.03 |
-4.08 |
-1.67 |
2008Q3 |
-5.69 |
-6.21 |
-5.16 |
-2.57 |
2008Q4 |
-6.63 |
-7.21 |
-6.06 |
-5.11 |
2009Q1 |
-7.35 |
-7.96 |
-6.74 |
-6.88 |
2009Q2 |
-7.75 |
-8.39 |
-7.11 |
-7.34 |
2009Q3 |
-7.91 |
-8.56 |
-7.25 |
-7.32 |
2009Q4 |
-7.91 |
-8.58 |
-7.24 |
-6.64 |
2010Q1 |
-7.81 |
-8.48 |
-7.14 |
-6.46 |
2010Q2 |
-7.64 |
-8.32 |
-6.97 |
-5.75 |
2010Q3 |
-7.38 |
-8.06 |
-6.70 |
-5.32 |
2010Q4 |
-7.16 |
-7.84 |
-6.47 |
-4.92 |
2011Q1 |
-6.83 |
-7.51 |
-6.14 |
-5.57 |
2011Q2 |
-6.46 |
-7.15 |
-5.76 |
-5.09 |
2011Q3 |
-5.98 |
-6.67 |
-5.28 |
-5.14 |
2011Q4 |
-5.56 |
-6.25 |
-4.86 |
-4.28 |
2012Q1 |
-5.20 |
-5.90 |
-4.49 |
-3.89 |
2012Q2 |
-4.85 |
-5.56 |
-4.14 |
-3.73 |
2012Q3 |
-4.56 |
-5.27 |
-3.84 |
-3.93 |
2012Q4 |
-4.07 |
-4.79 |
-3.35 |
-4.25 |
2013Q1 |
-3.75 |
-4.48 |
-3.02 |
-3.92 |
2013Q2 |
-3.32 |
-4.05 |
-2.58 |
-4.12 |
2013Q3 |
-2.90 |
-3.63 |
-2.15 |
-3.76 |
2013Q4 |
-2.48 |
-3.22 |
-1.73 |
-3.19 |
2014Q1 |
-2.03 |
-2.78 |
-1.27 |
-3.88 |
2014Q2 |
-1.60 |
-2.36 |
-0.84 |
-3.30 |
2014Q3 |
-1.23 |
-1.99 |
-0.46 |
-2.47 |
2014Q4 |
-0.87 |
-1.64 |
-0.10 |
-2.28 |
2015Q1 |
-0.55 |
-1.32 |
0.22 |
-2.15 |
2015Q2 |
-0.27 |
-1.04 |
0.49 |
-1.87 |
2015Q3 |
0.03 |
-0.74 |
0.79 |
-1.75 |
2015Q4 |
0.34 |
-0.43 |
1.10 |
-1.91 |
2016Q1 |
0.63 |
-0.14 |
1.40 |
-2.09 |
Return to text
Figure 6: Largest Negative Output Gaps between 2006:Q2 and 2010:Q1
State |
Minimum Output Gap during this Period |
Nevada |
-17.97% |
Michigan |
-15.33% |
Florida |
-14.02% |
Arizona |
-12.92% |
California |
-12.67% |
Delaware |
-11.65% |
Rhode Island |
-10.41% |
Ohio |
-10.38% |
Connecticut |
-9.89% |
Georgia |
-9.60% |
Minnesota |
-9.40% |
Indiana |
-8.79% |
New York |
-7.98% |
Idaho |
-7.73% |
Wisconsin |
-7.44% |
Illinois |
-7.33% |
Kentucky |
-7.28% |
Iowa |
-7.11% |
Tennessee |
-7.10% |
Arkansas |
-6.97% |
Montana |
-6.89% |
Massachusetts |
-6.53% |
South Carolina |
-6.52% |
New Jersey |
-6.42% |
Colorado |
-6.34% |
Texas |
-6.27% |
Hawaii |
-6.00% |
Alabama |
-5.94% |
Kansas |
-5.93% |
Oklahoma |
-5.92% |
Vermont |
-5.79% |
New Hampshire |
-5.67% |
Utah |
-5.54% |
Washington |
-5.31% |
Missouri |
-5.24% |
Pennsylvania |
-5.13% |
Maine |
-5.07% |
North Carolina |
-4.24% |
Nebraska |
-4.06% |
Mississippi |
-4.00% |
Virginia |
-3.05% |
North Dakota |
-2.50% |
Maryland |
-2.00% |
District of Columbia |
-1.78% |
South Dakota |
-1.15% |
West Virginia |
-1.06% |
Louisiana |
-0.32% |
Alaska |
> 0 |
New Mexico |
> 0 |
Oregon |
> 0 |
Wyoming |
> 0 |
Return to text
Figure 7: State Output Gaps in 2016:Q1
State |
Output Gap |
Wyoming |
-1.82% |
Alaska |
-0.85% |
Oregon |
-0.16% |
West Virginia |
-0.13% |
New Mexico |
-0.07% |
Louisiana |
-0.05% |
South Dakota |
0.01% |
Maryland |
0.13% |
District of Columbia |
0.16% |
Virginia |
0.25% |
North Dakota |
0.27% |
Nebraska |
0.29% |
Washington |
0.33% |
Mississippi |
0.35% |
North Carolina |
0.35% |
Oklahoma |
0.40% |
New Hampshire |
0.40% |
Alabama |
0.42% |
Utah |
0.42% |
Pennsylvania |
0.43% |
Illinois |
0.46% |
Montana |
0.48% |
Maine |
0.50% |
Hawaii |
0.50% |
Vermont |
0.50% |
Missouri |
0.51% |
Kansas |
0.52% |
Iowa |
0.53% |
Kentucky |
0.55% |
Texas |
0.55% |
South Carolina |
0.56% |
New Jersey |
0.57% |
Wisconsin |
0.59% |
Massachusetts |
0.59% |
Idaho |
0.59% |
Tennessee |
0.60% |
New York |
0.65% |
Indiana |
0.71% |
Minnesota |
0.72% |
Connecticut |
0.74% |
Arkansas |
0.77% |
Georgia |
0.78% |
Arizona |
0.81% |
Ohio |
0.85% |
Rhode Island |
0.85% |
Delaware |
0.88% |
Florida |
1.02% |
California |
1.02% |
Colorado |
1.06% |
Michigan |
1.23% |
Nevada |
1.41% |
Return to text
Figure 8: Estimate of the aggregate GDP trend
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), and author's calculations
Date |
Log of GDP |
Estimated log of GDP trend |
CBO log of GBP trend |
2005Q2 |
16.47 |
16.47 |
16.47 |
2005Q3 |
16.48 |
16.47 |
16.48 |
2005Q4 |
16.48 |
16.48 |
16.48 |
2006Q1 |
16.49 |
16.49 |
16.49 |
2006Q2 |
16.50 |
16.50 |
16.50 |
2006Q3 |
16.50 |
16.50 |
16.50 |
2006Q4 |
16.50 |
16.51 |
16.51 |
2007Q1 |
16.51 |
16.51 |
16.51 |
2007Q2 |
16.51 |
16.53 |
16.52 |
2007Q3 |
16.52 |
16.54 |
16.52 |
2007Q4 |
16.52 |
16.55 |
16.53 |
2008Q1 |
16.52 |
16.55 |
16.53 |
2008Q2 |
16.52 |
16.57 |
16.54 |
2008Q3 |
16.52 |
16.57 |
16.54 |
2008Q4 |
16.49 |
16.56 |
16.55 |
2009Q1 |
16.48 |
16.55 |
16.55 |
2009Q2 |
16.48 |
16.56 |
16.55 |
2009Q3 |
16.48 |
16.56 |
16.56 |
2009Q4 |
16.49 |
16.57 |
16.56 |
2010Q1 |
16.50 |
16.57 |
16.56 |
2010Q2 |
16.51 |
16.58 |
16.56 |
2010Q3 |
16.51 |
16.59 |
16.57 |
2010Q4 |
16.52 |
16.59 |
16.57 |
2011Q1 |
16.52 |
16.58 |
16.57 |
2011Q2 |
16.52 |
16.59 |
16.57 |
2011Q3 |
16.52 |
16.58 |
16.58 |
2011Q4 |
16.54 |
16.59 |
16.58 |
2012Q1 |
16.54 |
16.59 |
16.58 |
2012Q2 |
16.55 |
16.60 |
16.58 |
2012Q3 |
16.55 |
16.59 |
16.59 |
2012Q4 |
16.55 |
16.59 |
16.59 |
2013Q1 |
16.56 |
16.59 |
16.60 |
2013Q2 |
16.56 |
16.59 |
16.60 |
2013Q3 |
16.57 |
16.59 |
16.60 |
2013Q4 |
16.58 |
16.60 |
16.61 |
2014Q1 |
16.57 |
16.59 |
16.61 |
2014Q2 |
16.58 |
16.60 |
16.61 |
2014Q3 |
16.59 |
16.61 |
16.62 |
2014Q4 |
16.60 |
16.61 |
16.62 |
2015Q1 |
16.60 |
16.61 |
16.63 |
2015Q2 |
16.61 |
16.61 |
16.63 |
2015Q3 |
16.62 |
16.62 |
16.63 |
2015Q4 |
16.62 |
16.61 |
16.64 |
2016Q1 |
16.62 |
16.61 |
16.64 |
Return to text
Figure 9: Estimate of the GDP Trend for Selected States
Date |
Common GDP Trend |
North Dakota GDP Trend |
Texas GDP Trend |
Utah GDP Trend |
Oklahoma GDP Trend |
Indiana GDP Trend |
Kentucky GDP Trend |
Illinois GDP Trend |
Ohio GDP Trend |
Michigan GDP Trend |
Oregon GDP Trend |
South Dakota GDP Trend |
Maine GDP Trend |
Louisiana GDP Trend |
Nevada GDP Trend |
2005Q2 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
2005Q3 |
0.83 |
0.16 |
0.20 |
1.79 |
0.46 |
0.42 |
0.58 |
0.57 |
0.72 |
-1.10 |
0.51 |
0.64 |
-0.35 |
-2.85 |
-0.98 |
2005Q4 |
1.29 |
1.09 |
0.86 |
4.32 |
-1.95 |
0.22 |
0.61 |
0.49 |
-0.29 |
-1.26 |
2.20 |
2.79 |
0.43 |
-4.10 |
-0.18 |
2006Q1 |
2.54 |
2.75 |
3.79 |
6.35 |
8.01 |
1.08 |
2.08 |
0.34 |
2.78 |
-1.71 |
7.26 |
0.75 |
0.69 |
-3.47 |
1.73 |
2006Q2 |
2.95 |
5.02 |
4.85 |
7.99 |
5.20 |
1.80 |
3.06 |
0.94 |
2.26 |
-1.34 |
8.22 |
1.87 |
1.90 |
-4.21 |
3.20 |
2006Q3 |
3.18 |
4.12 |
5.78 |
9.66 |
3.84 |
2.59 |
2.94 |
1.00 |
2.47 |
-1.41 |
9.52 |
1.93 |
0.87 |
-4.33 |
2.41 |
2006Q4 |
4.23 |
5.11 |
8.02 |
11.93 |
3.34 |
3.13 |
2.52 |
0.55 |
3.80 |
-2.55 |
10.58 |
1.24 |
2.49 |
-4.36 |
3.52 |
2007Q1 |
4.65 |
6.60 |
8.15 |
12.88 |
5.00 |
3.30 |
1.73 |
1.45 |
4.24 |
-0.97 |
8.91 |
4.00 |
0.58 |
-6.73 |
4.73 |
2007Q2 |
5.88 |
7.24 |
10.94 |
16.06 |
6.39 |
5.35 |
2.60 |
1.84 |
4.70 |
-0.36 |
10.33 |
5.99 |
2.00 |
-7.28 |
5.82 |
2007Q3 |
7.14 |
7.74 |
11.94 |
16.59 |
8.97 |
7.13 |
2.96 |
3.06 |
5.70 |
1.00 |
12.39 |
4.60 |
2.37 |
-7.03 |
7.72 |
2007Q4 |
8.28 |
10.26 |
12.88 |
17.40 |
8.77 |
8.40 |
4.67 |
3.59 |
6.75 |
0.10 |
14.45 |
5.56 |
2.25 |
-7.53 |
10.58 |
2008Q1 |
8.47 |
15.27 |
12.48 |
15.77 |
8.44 |
8.95 |
5.24 |
4.19 |
5.80 |
0.68 |
14.49 |
11.50 |
3.27 |
-8.68 |
10.36 |
2008Q2 |
10.01 |
16.63 |
13.30 |
17.47 |
10.61 |
10.60 |
7.15 |
5.87 |
6.76 |
2.07 |
16.32 |
10.43 |
3.99 |
-6.80 |
11.02 |
2008Q3 |
10.66 |
19.56 |
14.32 |
17.92 |
11.52 |
9.81 |
6.68 |
6.08 |
7.15 |
1.82 |
17.41 |
10.02 |
3.91 |
-6.99 |
12.52 |
2008Q4 |
9.47 |
20.70 |
16.61 |
15.88 |
14.40 |
8.20 |
5.47 |
3.37 |
5.33 |
0.83 |
15.06 |
6.58 |
2.35 |
-5.65 |
11.33 |
2009Q1 |
8.79 |
20.14 |
16.55 |
17.82 |
13.15 |
4.15 |
3.90 |
3.48 |
4.61 |
-3.41 |
14.72 |
10.18 |
1.67 |
-5.46 |
8.89 |
2009Q2 |
9.05 |
19.68 |
15.61 |
17.04 |
11.80 |
4.43 |
3.36 |
2.49 |
6.24 |
-2.55 |
13.80 |
10.20 |
2.46 |
-6.41 |
7.52 |
2009Q3 |
9.54 |
22.88 |
16.47 |
17.39 |
12.99 |
5.70 |
4.59 |
3.31 |
6.02 |
-2.26 |
15.02 |
11.94 |
3.67 |
-5.24 |
6.69 |
2009Q4 |
10.50 |
22.38 |
17.24 |
17.16 |
11.24 |
8.65 |
6.41 |
3.98 |
6.84 |
-0.86 |
15.17 |
11.17 |
4.36 |
-4.78 |
6.70 |
2010Q1 |
10.83 |
25.31 |
18.77 |
18.80 |
11.97 |
9.57 |
6.35 |
3.47 |
5.57 |
-0.56 |
19.13 |
11.25 |
3.64 |
-1.86 |
5.89 |
2010Q2 |
11.63 |
28.26 |
18.58 |
17.85 |
13.54 |
11.23 |
8.77 |
4.49 |
6.19 |
1.97 |
18.82 |
11.31 |
4.25 |
-0.87 |
6.34 |
2010Q3 |
12.04 |
29.74 |
19.35 |
18.97 |
13.97 |
12.17 |
9.87 |
5.47 |
6.92 |
3.77 |
20.07 |
13.85 |
4.88 |
0.21 |
6.65 |
2010Q4 |
12.45 |
32.23 |
19.93 |
20.49 |
14.00 |
12.40 |
9.65 |
6.37 |
7.10 |
2.97 |
20.56 |
13.62 |
3.63 |
-1.36 |
6.55 |
2011Q1 |
11.73 |
35.03 |
20.84 |
20.27 |
13.22 |
10.68 |
8.55 |
5.05 |
6.48 |
2.60 |
24.54 |
18.44 |
2.47 |
-4.56 |
4.27 |
2011Q2 |
12.08 |
35.47 |
21.11 |
20.63 |
16.45 |
10.43 |
8.83 |
5.65 |
7.41 |
1.45 |
24.14 |
18.67 |
1.98 |
-5.91 |
5.17 |
2011Q3 |
11.81 |
38.95 |
21.32 |
20.71 |
18.09 |
10.14 |
8.98 |
6.53 |
7.07 |
1.10 |
23.07 |
17.74 |
1.54 |
-6.06 |
3.91 |
2011Q4 |
12.51 |
45.92 |
22.53 |
21.33 |
19.94 |
10.62 |
10.42 |
7.75 |
7.90 |
3.19 |
24.58 |
21.54 |
2.72 |
-4.59 |
3.13 |
2012Q1 |
12.81 |
51.56 |
24.62 |
21.03 |
18.84 |
9.89 |
9.96 |
6.36 |
8.99 |
1.64 |
24.12 |
20.11 |
2.08 |
-3.91 |
2.16 |
2012Q2 |
12.93 |
57.62 |
24.73 |
20.76 |
19.90 |
9.94 |
10.00 |
7.03 |
8.67 |
1.17 |
22.93 |
20.41 |
2.55 |
-2.82 |
1.48 |
2012Q3 |
12.76 |
59.44 |
25.00 |
19.85 |
19.19 |
9.19 |
9.03 |
6.49 |
8.38 |
0.59 |
21.26 |
13.21 |
1.24 |
-5.32 |
0.24 |
2012Q4 |
12.30 |
60.26 |
26.80 |
20.63 |
23.42 |
7.13 |
6.85 |
4.84 |
6.39 |
-0.56 |
18.69 |
18.93 |
-1.54 |
-6.66 |
-2.37 |
2013Q1 |
12.67 |
56.58 |
27.47 |
21.56 |
20.58 |
10.13 |
9.39 |
5.83 |
7.09 |
0.40 |
20.01 |
18.67 |
0.29 |
-6.19 |
-2.21 |
2013Q2 |
12.43 |
57.54 |
27.78 |
21.95 |
22.34 |
8.78 |
8.31 |
5.17 |
5.80 |
-0.72 |
20.48 |
18.96 |
-1.06 |
-7.50 |
-3.94 |
2013Q3 |
12.78 |
60.78 |
28.70 |
23.10 |
21.98 |
9.38 |
8.55 |
4.92 |
5.40 |
-1.20 |
20.75 |
19.51 |
-0.99 |
-7.34 |
-4.21 |
2013Q4 |
13.33 |
61.81 |
29.02 |
22.42 |
23.12 |
9.02 |
8.37 |
5.16 |
6.06 |
-1.45 |
21.98 |
20.08 |
-1.06 |
-7.07 |
-3.88 |
2014Q1 |
12.58 |
59.92 |
28.65 |
22.92 |
22.46 |
8.99 |
7.38 |
4.90 |
4.89 |
-2.31 |
20.73 |
17.00 |
-1.59 |
-7.73 |
-3.96 |
2014Q2 |
13.13 |
64.09 |
29.53 |
23.02 |
23.01 |
9.38 |
8.21 |
5.62 |
5.30 |
-2.07 |
21.64 |
19.41 |
-1.03 |
-5.68 |
-4.02 |
2014Q3 |
13.96 |
65.42 |
31.38 |
23.65 |
25.16 |
9.93 |
8.17 |
7.17 |
5.80 |
-2.22 |
23.26 |
20.42 |
-0.69 |
-4.14 |
-3.86 |
2014Q4 |
14.18 |
68.15 |
32.10 |
24.25 |
24.64 |
10.37 |
8.40 |
7.12 |
5.17 |
-2.85 |
23.38 |
21.25 |
0.43 |
-3.50 |
-3.69 |
2015Q1 |
14.36 |
65.78 |
33.72 |
24.70 |
26.75 |
8.88 |
6.97 |
5.86 |
6.46 |
-3.97 |
25.16 |
18.67 |
-3.02 |
-3.57 |
-4.93 |
2015Q2 |
14.73 |
62.21 |
33.10 |
25.55 |
24.38 |
10.05 |
8.19 |
6.36 |
5.57 |
-3.31 |
25.81 |
20.61 |
-0.98 |
-3.78 |
-3.87 |
2015Q3 |
14.92 |
61.43 |
33.23 |
26.22 |
24.26 |
9.99 |
8.31 |
6.42 |
6.93 |
-3.55 |
27.51 |
22.44 |
-0.74 |
-3.36 |
-3.67 |
2015Q4 |
14.83 |
62.00 |
33.44 |
26.75 |
23.26 |
10.38 |
8.63 |
6.64 |
6.85 |
-3.54 |
27.72 |
22.93 |
-0.76 |
-3.38 |
-4.33 |
2016Q1 |
14.74 |
58.83 |
33.27 |
27.13 |
22.93 |
10.16 |
8.45 |
6.62 |
6.28 |
-3.47 |
28.78 |
22.21 |
-0.26 |
-3.58 |
-5.00 |
Return to text
Figure 10: Intercept and Loading Coefficients Estimates
State |
mu_{i} |
alpha_{i} |
North Dakota |
0.96 |
0.01 |
South Dakota |
0.86 |
0.00 |
Wyoming |
0.74 |
-0.04 |
Nebraska |
0.74 |
0.02 |
Texas |
0.72 |
0.04 |
Oregon |
0.66 |
-0.02 |
Utah |
0.65 |
0.03 |
Alaska |
0.61 |
-0.03 |
Washington |
0.58 |
0.03 |
Montana |
0.48 |
0.04 |
California |
0.46 |
0.08 |
Colorado |
0.46 |
0.04 |
New Hampshire |
0.43 |
0.03 |
Oklahoma |
0.42 |
0.03 |
Iowa |
0.41 |
0.04 |
Delaware |
0.41 |
0.07 |
Maryland |
0.39 |
0.01 |
District of Columbia |
0.38 |
0.01 |
Idaho |
0.37 |
0.05 |
New York |
0.36 |
0.05 |
Tennessee |
0.34 |
0.04 |
Virginia |
0.34 |
0.02 |
Kansas |
0.33 |
0.04 |
Arkansas |
0.32 |
0.04 |
Pennsylvania |
0.30 |
0.03 |
North Carolina |
0.29 |
0.03 |
Arizona |
0.29 |
0.08 |
Indiana |
0.29 |
0.05 |
South Carolina |
0.29 |
0.04 |
Massachusetts |
0.29 |
0.04 |
Kentucky |
0.27 |
0.04 |
West Virginia |
0.26 |
0.00 |
Nevada |
0.25 |
0.11 |
Hawaii |
0.25 |
0.04 |
Wisconsin |
0.24 |
0.04 |
Missouri |
0.23 |
0.03 |
Georgia |
0.22 |
0.06 |
Connecticut |
0.21 |
0.06 |
Rhode Island |
0.21 |
0.06 |
Mississippi |
0.21 |
0.02 |
Illinois |
0.21 |
0.04 |
Minnesota |
0.20 |
0.06 |
New Mexico |
0.18 |
-0.00 |
Louisiana |
0.18 |
-0.00 |
Vermont |
0.17 |
0.04 |
Florida |
0.14 |
0.09 |
New Jersey |
0.14 |
0.04 |
Ohio |
0.13 |
0.06 |
Alabama |
0.13 |
0.03 |
Maine |
0.09 |
0.03 |
Michigan |
0.07 |
0.09 |
Return to text
Figure 11: Variance Decomposition of the State's Cycles
State |
Output Gap |
West Virginia |
0.66% |
New Mexico |
2.16% |
Louisiana |
2.71% |
South Dakota |
8.54% |
North Dakota |
21.02% |
Wyoming |
40.48% |
District of Columbia |
48.20% |
Alaska |
48.71% |
Oregon |
60.88% |
Oklahoma |
70.34% |
New Hampshire |
81.08% |
Nebraska |
83.36% |
Maryland |
83.83% |
Mississippi |
85.84% |
Washington |
88.75% |
Arkansas |
90.08% |
North Carolina |
90.64% |
Colorado |
92.15% |
Texas |
93.51% |
Massachusetts |
93.68% |
Vermont |
93.72% |
Utah |
93.73% |
Maine |
94.05% |
Delaware |
94.28% |
Alabama |
94.63% |
Missouri |
94.66% |
Iowa |
94.96% |
Virginia |
95.66% |
Pennsylvania |
95.72% |
South Carolina |
95.75% |
Illinois |
96.56% |
Montana |
96.58% |
Kentucky |
96.73% |
Minnesota |
97.08% |
Indiana |
97.10% |
Tennessee |
97.12% |
Idaho |
97.35% |
Hawaii |
97.36% |
Wisconsin |
97.98% |
New Jersey |
98.07% |
Ohio |
98.15% |
Kansas |
98.32% |
Rhode Island |
98.65% |
Arizona |
99.10% |
New York |
99.22% |
Florida |
99.31% |
Michigan |
99.33% |
Connecticut |
99.63% |
Georgia |
99.79% |
California |
99.98% |
Nevada |
99.99% |
Return to text
Figure 12: Okun's Law Coefficients (
$$ \theta _{1i}+\theta _{2i}$$)
State |
Output Gap |
Colorado |
-0.50 |
California |
-0.46 |
Virginia |
-0.46 |
Missouri |
-0.43 |
New Jersey |
-0.42 |
Nevada |
-0.41 |
Rhode Island |
-0.38 |
Idaho |
-0.36 |
Illinois |
-0.35 |
Connecticut |
-0.35 |
Washington |
-0.35 |
Alabama |
-0.34 |
Georgia |
-0.33 |
Florida |
-0.33 |
Arizona |
-0.31 |
District of Columbia |
-0.30 |
Texas |
-0.29 |
Michigan |
-0.26 |
New York |
-0.25 |
Hawaii |
-0.24 |
West Virginia |
-0.24 |
Massachusetts |
-0.23 |
Kansas |
-0.22 |
Kentucky |
-0.22 |
Pennsylvania |
-0.22 |
Ohio |
-0.21 |
Montana |
-0.20 |
Tennessee |
-0.20 |
Utah |
-0.18 |
South Carolina |
-0.17 |
Mississippi |
-0.17 |
Minnesota |
-0.16 |
Wisconsin |
-0.16 |
Indiana |
-0.15 |
New Mexico |
-0.15 |
North Carolina |
-0.13 |
Maine |
-0.12 |
Louisiana |
-0.12 |
Vermont |
-0.10 |
Wyoming |
-0.09 |
Maryland |
-0.08 |
Arkansas |
-0.08 |
Delaware |
-0.07 |
Oklahoma |
-0.05 |
Oregon |
-0.05 |
Nebraska |
-0.04 |
Iowa |
-0.03 |
Alaska |
-0.02 |
New Hampshire |
-0.01 |
North Dakota |
-0.00 |
South Dakota |
0.01 |
Return to text
Figure 13: Smoothed Estimate of the GDP Cycle from Aggregate Data
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and author's calculations.
Date |
Smoothed cycle |
Lower bound 68% confidence set |
Upper bound 68% confidence set |
CBO-implied output gap |
2005Q2 |
0.11 |
-0.07 |
0.30 |
-0.43 |
2005Q3 |
0.34 |
0.01 |
0.68 |
-0.19 |
2005Q4 |
0.58 |
0.12 |
1.05 |
-0.22 |
2006Q1 |
0.72 |
0.14 |
1.30 |
0.37 |
2006Q2 |
0.85 |
0.17 |
1.54 |
0.06 |
2006Q3 |
0.94 |
0.16 |
1.71 |
-0.45 |
2006Q4 |
0.96 |
0.09 |
1.82 |
-0.27 |
2007Q1 |
0.94 |
-0.02 |
1.90 |
-0.78 |
2007Q2 |
0.87 |
-0.18 |
1.93 |
-0.56 |
2007Q3 |
0.62 |
-0.51 |
1.78 |
-0.42 |
2007Q4 |
0.10 |
-1.11 |
1.33 |
-0.56 |
2008Q1 |
-0.65 |
-1.95 |
0.65 |
-1.71 |
2008Q2 |
-1.75 |
-3.11 |
-0.38 |
-1.67 |
2008Q3 |
-3.17 |
-4.60 |
-1.74 |
-2.57 |
2008Q4 |
-4.31 |
-5.81 |
-2.80 |
-5.11 |
2009Q1 |
-4.91 |
-6.46 |
-3.35 |
-6.88 |
2009Q2 |
-5.15 |
-6.74 |
-3.56 |
-7.34 |
2009Q3 |
-5.04 |
-6.64 |
-3.43 |
-7.32 |
2009Q4 |
-4.81 |
-6.42 |
-3.20 |
-6.64 |
2010Q1 |
-4.53 |
-6.16 |
-2.91 |
-6.46 |
2010Q2 |
-4.28 |
-5.89 |
-2.64 |
-5.75 |
2010Q3 |
-3.95 |
-5.57 |
-2.33 |
-5.32 |
2010Q4 |
-3.84 |
-5.48 |
-2.22 |
-4.92 |
2011Q1 |
-3.61 |
-5.23 |
-1.99 |
-5.57 |
2011Q2 |
-3.28 |
-4.89 |
-1.67 |
-5.09 |
2011Q3 |
-2.90 |
-4.50 |
-1.31 |
-5.14 |
2011Q4 |
-2.62 |
-4.22 |
-1.04 |
-4.28 |
2012Q1 |
-2.39 |
-3.98 |
-0.82 |
-3.89 |
2012Q2 |
-2.22 |
-3.80 |
-0.65 |
-3.73 |
2012Q3 |
-2.08 |
-3.65 |
-0.52 |
-3.93 |
2012Q4 |
-1.84 |
-3.41 |
-0.29 |
-4.25 |
2013Q1 |
-1.58 |
-3.15 |
-0.03 |
-3.92 |
2013Q2 |
-1.19 |
-2.76 |
0.35 |
-4.12 |
2013Q3 |
-0.81 |
-2.39 |
0.73 |
-3.76 |
2013Q4 |
-0.46 |
-2.06 |
1.10 |
-3.19 |
2014Q1 |
-0.10 |
-1.71 |
1.48 |
-3.88 |
2014Q2 |
0.33 |
-1.29 |
1.94 |
-3.30 |
2014Q3 |
0.63 |
-1.04 |
2.26 |
-2.47 |
2014Q4 |
0.89 |
-0.80 |
2.57 |
-2.28 |
2015Q1 |
1.14 |
-0.57 |
2.85 |
-2.15 |
2015Q2 |
1.32 |
-0.39 |
3.05 |
-1.87 |
2015Q3 |
1.39 |
-0.33 |
3.13 |
-1.75 |
2015Q4 |
1.37 |
-0.36 |
3.11 |
-1.91 |
2016Q1 |
1.30 |
-0.43 |
3.04 |
-2.09 |
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