Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2018-004
Quantitative Easing and the “New Normal” in Monetary Policy
Accessible version of figures
Figure 1: The Nominal Federal Funds Rate, Inflation, and Long-run Inflation Expectations
year/quarter |
Nominal federal funds rate |
Inflation (four-quarter basis) |
Long-run inflation expectations |
1965 |
4.11 |
1.23 |
|
1965.25 |
4.22 |
1.23 |
|
1965.5 |
4.22 |
1.25 |
|
1965.75 |
4.32 |
1.32 |
|
1966 |
4.73 |
1.46 |
|
1966.25 |
5.11 |
1.96 |
|
1966.5 |
5.64 |
2.48 |
|
1966.75 |
5.80 |
3.02 |
|
1967 |
5.01 |
3.06 |
|
1967.25 |
4.13 |
2.92 |
|
1967.5 |
4.03 |
2.98 |
|
1967.75 |
4.32 |
3.11 |
|
1968 |
4.97 |
3.68 |
|
1968.25 |
6.25 |
4.17 |
|
1968.5 |
6.21 |
4.38 |
|
1968.75 |
6.18 |
4.54 |
|
1969 |
6.88 |
4.53 |
|
1969.25 |
8.81 |
4.58 |
|
1969.5 |
9.53 |
4.62 |
|
1969.75 |
9.49 |
4.63 |
|
1970 |
9.07 |
4.61 |
|
1970.25 |
8.32 |
4.53 |
|
1970.5 |
7.04 |
4.49 |
|
1970.75 |
5.81 |
4.71 |
|
1971 |
3.99 |
4.89 |
|
1971.25 |
4.74 |
4.90 |
|
1971.5 |
5.70 |
4.73 |
|
1971.75 |
4.93 |
3.91 |
|
1972 |
3.66 |
3.60 |
|
1972.25 |
4.46 |
3.15 |
|
1972.5 |
4.92 |
2.96 |
|
1972.75 |
5.35 |
3.02 |
|
1973 |
6.85 |
2.76 |
|
1973.25 |
8.25 |
3.43 |
|
1973.5 |
11.30 |
4.00 |
|
1973.75 |
10.67 |
4.76 |
|
1974 |
9.93 |
5.76 |
|
1974.25 |
12.08 |
6.86 |
|
1974.5 |
13.05 |
8.36 |
|
1974.75 |
9.94 |
9.39 |
|
1975 |
6.60 |
9.64 |
|
1975.25 |
5.65 |
8.70 |
|
1975.5 |
6.44 |
7.37 |
|
1975.75 |
5.64 |
6.57 |
|
1976 |
5.02 |
6.14 |
|
1976.25 |
5.41 |
5.81 |
|
1976.5 |
5.50 |
5.87 |
|
1976.75 |
5.06 |
5.80 |
|
1977 |
4.84 |
5.94 |
|
1977.25 |
5.37 |
6.27 |
|
1977.5 |
6.07 |
6.37 |
|
1977.75 |
6.83 |
6.29 |
|
1978 |
7.09 |
6.21 |
|
1978.25 |
7.66 |
6.41 |
|
1978.5 |
8.55 |
6.47 |
6.2 |
1978.75 |
10.20 |
6.79 |
|
1979 |
10.75 |
6.56 |
|
1979.25 |
10.87 |
7.00 |
6.75 |
1979.5 |
11.73 |
7.11 |
|
1979.75 |
14.76 |
7.39 |
|
1980 |
16.50 |
8.45 |
|
1980.25 |
13.70 |
8.49 |
|
1980.5 |
10.47 |
8.86 |
8.61 |
1980.75 |
17.43 |
9.21 |
8.82 |
1981 |
18.31 |
9.00 |
8.28 |
1981.25 |
19.76 |
8.65 |
7.87 |
1981.5 |
19.52 |
8.27 |
7.62 |
1981.75 |
14.77 |
7.62 |
7.73 |
1982 |
15.49 |
6.86 |
7.16 |
1982.25 |
15.85 |
6.34 |
6.76 |
1982.5 |
11.81 |
6.11 |
6.765 |
1982.75 |
9.87 |
5.75 |
6.6 |
1983 |
9.17 |
5.66 |
6.32 |
1983.25 |
9.33 |
5.10 |
6.58 |
1983.5 |
10.07 |
5.03 |
6.63 |
1983.75 |
10.03 |
4.44 |
6.65 |
1984 |
10.32 |
4.08 |
6.58 |
1984.25 |
11.29 |
4.48 |
6.505 |
1984.5 |
12.24 |
3.90 |
6.05 |
1984.75 |
9.85 |
3.82 |
5.7 |
1985 |
8.97 |
4.19 |
5.36 |
1985.25 |
8.36 |
3.93 |
5.475 |
1985.5 |
8.34 |
4.03 |
5.695 |
1985.75 |
8.56 |
4.01 |
5.615 |
1986 |
8.26 |
3.72 |
5.285 |
1986.25 |
7.27 |
3.48 |
5.2533 |
1986.5 |
6.50 |
3.10 |
5.12 |
1986.75 |
6.56 |
3.20 |
5.1067 |
1987 |
6.51 |
2.74 |
5.285 |
1987.25 |
6.98 |
3.03 |
5.295 |
1987.5 |
7.18 |
3.25 |
5.48 |
1987.75 |
7.27 |
3.48 |
5.14 |
1988 |
6.99 |
3.80 |
5.235 |
1988.25 |
7.52 |
4.06 |
5.045 |
1988.5 |
8.43 |
4.32 |
4.92 |
1988.75 |
8.97 |
4.39 |
4.6667 |
1989 |
10.05 |
4.50 |
4.69 |
1989.25 |
10.36 |
4.18 |
4.74 |
1989.5 |
9.65 |
3.75 |
4.53 |
1989.75 |
9.13 |
3.56 |
4.305 |
1990 |
8.72 |
3.63 |
|
1990.25 |
8.72 |
3.84 |
4.27 |
1990.5 |
8.62 |
4.11 |
4.39 |
1990.75 |
8.17 |
4.03 |
4.3 |
1991 |
6.74 |
3.76 |
4.315 |
1991.25 |
6.12 |
3.41 |
4.34 |
1991.5 |
5.89 |
3.31 |
|
1991.75 |
5.00 |
3.26 |
4 |
1992 |
4.16 |
3.16 |
3.7 |
1992.25 |
3.90 |
3.12 |
3.9 |
1992.5 |
3.36 |
2.81 |
3.75 |
1992.75 |
3.13 |
2.78 |
3.6 |
1993 |
3.13 |
2.71 |
3.5 |
1993.25 |
3.09 |
2.77 |
3.7 |
1993.5 |
3.15 |
2.74 |
3.45 |
1993.75 |
3.08 |
2.52 |
3.45 |
1994 |
3.31 |
2.28 |
3.45 |
1994.25 |
4.08 |
2.19 |
3.5 |
1994.5 |
4.65 |
2.18 |
3.5 |
1994.75 |
5.38 |
2.18 |
3.5 |
1995 |
6.06 |
2.24 |
3.3 |
1995.25 |
6.29 |
2.14 |
3.35 |
1995.5 |
6.05 |
2.06 |
3.2 |
1995.75 |
5.97 |
2.05 |
3 |
1996 |
5.59 |
1.94 |
3 |
1996.25 |
5.46 |
1.83 |
3 |
1996.5 |
5.53 |
1.82 |
3 |
1996.75 |
5.50 |
1.88 |
3 |
1997 |
5.50 |
1.88 |
3 |
1997.25 |
5.76 |
1.92 |
2.85 |
1997.5 |
5.77 |
1.69 |
3 |
1997.75 |
5.74 |
1.44 |
2.65 |
1998 |
5.76 |
1.33 |
2.6 |
1998.25 |
5.73 |
1.12 |
2.5 |
1998.5 |
5.77 |
1.24 |
2.5 |
1998.75 |
5.05 |
1.23 |
2.5 |
1999 |
4.91 |
1.28 |
2.3 |
1999.25 |
4.93 |
1.29 |
2.5 |
1999.5 |
5.30 |
1.28 |
2.5 |
1999.75 |
5.53 |
1.43 |
2.5 |
2000 |
5.92 |
1.66 |
2.5 |
2000.25 |
6.57 |
1.67 |
2.5 |
2000.5 |
6.83 |
1.79 |
2.5 |
2000.75 |
6.78 |
1.81 |
2.5 |
2001 |
5.84 |
1.83 |
2.5 |
2001.25 |
4.48 |
1.89 |
2.5 |
2001.5 |
3.61 |
1.72 |
2.5 |
2001.75 |
2.19 |
1.75 |
2.55 |
2002 |
1.77 |
1.47 |
2.5 |
2002.25 |
1.79 |
1.66 |
2.5 |
2002.5 |
1.78 |
1.89 |
2.5 |
2002.75 |
1.48 |
1.73 |
2.45 |
2003 |
1.28 |
1.69 |
2.5 |
2003.25 |
1.27 |
1.47 |
2.5 |
2003.5 |
1.04 |
1.36 |
2.5 |
2003.75 |
1.02 |
1.36 |
2.5 |
2004 |
1.02 |
1.66 |
2.5 |
2004.25 |
1.03 |
1.90 |
2.5 |
2004.5 |
1.46 |
1.95 |
2.5 |
2004.75 |
2.00 |
2.07 |
2.5 |
2005 |
2.53 |
2.17 |
2.45 |
2005.25 |
3.03 |
2.09 |
2.5 |
2005.5 |
3.57 |
2.05 |
2.5 |
2005.75 |
4.12 |
2.23 |
2.5 |
2006 |
4.62 |
2.11 |
2.5 |
2006.25 |
5.10 |
2.25 |
2.5 |
2006.5 |
5.46 |
2.37 |
2.5 |
2006.75 |
5.46 |
2.13 |
2.5 |
2007 |
5.47 |
2.34 |
2.35 |
2007.25 |
5.47 |
2.02 |
2.4 |
2007.5 |
5.28 |
1.97 |
2.4 |
2007.75 |
4.66 |
2.22 |
2.4 |
2008 |
3.28 |
2.09 |
2.5 |
2008.25 |
2.14 |
2.24 |
2.5 |
2008.5 |
1.99 |
2.20 |
2.5 |
2008.75 |
0.52 |
1.63 |
2.5 |
2009 |
0.18 |
1.17 |
2.4 |
2009.25 |
0.18 |
1.16 |
2.5 |
2009.5 |
0.16 |
0.99 |
2.5 |
2009.75 |
0.12 |
1.41 |
2.26 |
2010 |
0.14 |
1.54 |
2.39 |
2010.25 |
0.20 |
1.32 |
2.4 |
2010.5 |
0.19 |
1.28 |
2.3 |
2010.75 |
0.19 |
0.97 |
2.2 |
2011 |
0.16 |
1.05 |
2.3 |
2011.25 |
0.09 |
1.39 |
2.4 |
2011.5 |
0.08 |
1.65 |
2.4 |
2011.75 |
0.07 |
1.84 |
2.5 |
2012 |
0.10 |
2.06 |
2.3 |
2012.25 |
0.16 |
1.93 |
2.48 |
2012.5 |
0.15 |
1.73 |
2.35 |
2012.75 |
0.16 |
1.76 |
2.3 |
2013 |
0.15 |
1.62 |
2.3 |
2013.25 |
0.12 |
1.43 |
2.3 |
2013.5 |
0.08 |
1.47 |
2.21 |
2013.75 |
0.09 |
1.48 |
2.3 |
2014 |
0.07 |
1.47 |
2.3 |
2014.25 |
0.09 |
1.69 |
2.25 |
2014.5 |
0.09 |
1.72 |
2.2 |
2014.75 |
0.10 |
1.55 |
2.2 |
2015 |
0.11 |
1.43 |
2.1 |
2015.25 |
0.13 |
1.36 |
2.14 |
2015.5 |
0.14 |
1.34 |
2.15 |
2015.75 |
0.16 |
1.36 |
2.15 |
2016 |
0.37 |
1.59 |
2.12 |
2016.25 |
0.38 |
1.60 |
2.2 |
2016.5 |
0.40 |
1.68 |
2.15 |
Return to text
Figure 2: The Real Federal Funds Rate and Estimates of r*
year/quarter |
r* (Kiley, 2015) |
r* (Laubach and Williams, 2003) |
Real federal funds rate |
r* (Del Negro et al, 2017) |
1965 |
2.317 |
4.582 |
2.876 |
2.255 |
1965.25 |
2.316 |
4.586 |
2.989 |
2.248 |
1965.5 |
2.313 |
4.583 |
2.969 |
2.242 |
1965.75 |
2.307 |
4.568 |
2.999 |
2.236 |
1966 |
2.301 |
4.542 |
3.271 |
2.226 |
1966.25 |
2.295 |
4.516 |
3.147 |
2.213 |
1966.5 |
2.288 |
4.494 |
3.158 |
2.206 |
1966.75 |
2.281 |
4.471 |
2.782 |
2.193 |
1967 |
2.274 |
4.447 |
1.943 |
2.180 |
1967.25 |
2.267 |
4.423 |
1.213 |
2.174 |
1967.5 |
2.260 |
4.399 |
1.041 |
2.164 |
1967.75 |
2.251 |
4.370 |
1.208 |
2.155 |
1968 |
2.239 |
4.333 |
1.296 |
2.142 |
1968.25 |
2.228 |
4.286 |
2.085 |
2.131 |
1968.5 |
2.217 |
4.237 |
1.829 |
2.117 |
1968.75 |
2.205 |
4.190 |
1.638 |
2.114 |
1969 |
2.193 |
4.140 |
2.350 |
2.111 |
1969.25 |
2.181 |
4.089 |
4.231 |
2.098 |
1969.5 |
2.170 |
4.043 |
4.916 |
2.090 |
1969.75 |
2.160 |
4.003 |
4.857 |
2.085 |
1970 |
2.152 |
3.971 |
4.458 |
2.080 |
1970.25 |
2.144 |
3.942 |
3.785 |
2.077 |
1970.5 |
2.138 |
3.914 |
2.547 |
2.067 |
1970.75 |
2.131 |
3.890 |
1.097 |
2.058 |
1971 |
2.123 |
3.865 |
-0.896 |
2.051 |
1971.25 |
2.116 |
3.836 |
-0.161 |
2.055 |
1971.5 |
2.110 |
3.813 |
0.979 |
2.060 |
1971.75 |
2.104 |
3.793 |
1.025 |
2.055 |
1972 |
2.096 |
3.770 |
0.058 |
2.059 |
1972.25 |
2.087 |
3.735 |
1.308 |
2.068 |
1972.5 |
2.078 |
3.694 |
1.961 |
2.072 |
1972.75 |
2.066 |
3.647 |
2.339 |
2.075 |
1973 |
2.052 |
3.589 |
4.093 |
2.095 |
1973.25 |
2.040 |
3.525 |
4.813 |
2.101 |
1973.5 |
2.027 |
3.466 |
7.293 |
2.115 |
1973.75 |
2.014 |
3.412 |
5.902 |
2.117 |
1974 |
2.002 |
3.361 |
4.161 |
2.121 |
1974.25 |
1.992 |
3.319 |
5.220 |
2.127 |
1974.5 |
1.987 |
3.287 |
4.683 |
2.131 |
1974.75 |
1.987 |
3.269 |
0.543 |
2.129 |
1975 |
1.988 |
3.263 |
-3.038 |
2.133 |
1975.25 |
1.987 |
3.262 |
-3.056 |
2.145 |
1975.5 |
1.985 |
3.257 |
-0.928 |
2.149 |
1975.75 |
1.984 |
3.248 |
-0.927 |
2.153 |
1976 |
1.983 |
3.236 |
-1.121 |
2.160 |
1976.25 |
1.985 |
3.226 |
-0.397 |
2.174 |
1976.5 |
1.988 |
3.223 |
-0.362 |
2.176 |
1976.75 |
1.991 |
3.226 |
-0.734 |
2.172 |
1977 |
1.993 |
3.230 |
-1.102 |
2.175 |
1977.25 |
1.993 |
3.230 |
-0.900 |
2.179 |
1977.5 |
1.995 |
3.227 |
-0.300 |
2.181 |
1977.75 |
1.999 |
3.228 |
0.541 |
2.182 |
1978 |
2.001 |
3.232 |
0.879 |
2.181 |
1978.25 |
2.000 |
3.224 |
1.251 |
2.171 |
1978.5 |
2.001 |
3.203 |
2.089 |
2.166 |
1978.75 |
2.001 |
3.184 |
3.415 |
2.159 |
1979 |
2.002 |
3.167 |
4.197 |
2.143 |
1979.25 |
2.004 |
3.154 |
3.872 |
2.126 |
1979.5 |
2.006 |
3.142 |
4.616 |
2.107 |
1979.75 |
2.009 |
3.131 |
7.367 |
2.113 |
1980 |
2.015 |
3.125 |
8.050 |
2.128 |
1980.25 |
2.024 |
3.130 |
5.212 |
2.112 |
1980.5 |
2.029 |
3.142 |
1.609 |
2.115 |
1980.75 |
2.031 |
3.143 |
8.225 |
2.128 |
1981 |
2.035 |
3.132 |
9.317 |
2.130 |
1981.25 |
2.039 |
3.122 |
11.108 |
2.150 |
1981.5 |
2.044 |
3.116 |
11.255 |
2.172 |
1981.75 |
2.054 |
3.116 |
7.151 |
2.168 |
1982 |
2.064 |
3.130 |
8.631 |
2.183 |
1982.25 |
2.075 |
3.150 |
9.513 |
2.184 |
1982.5 |
2.087 |
3.171 |
5.707 |
2.173 |
1982.75 |
2.098 |
3.195 |
4.125 |
2.156 |
1983 |
2.106 |
3.216 |
3.510 |
2.170 |
1983.25 |
2.112 |
3.227 |
4.230 |
2.182 |
1983.5 |
2.115 |
3.230 |
5.035 |
2.202 |
1983.75 |
2.116 |
3.227 |
5.597 |
2.210 |
1984 |
2.116 |
3.218 |
6.236 |
2.213 |
1984.25 |
2.116 |
3.207 |
6.815 |
2.231 |
1984.5 |
2.116 |
3.195 |
8.337 |
2.236 |
1984.75 |
2.114 |
3.185 |
6.027 |
2.230 |
1985 |
2.112 |
3.175 |
4.779 |
2.229 |
1985.25 |
2.109 |
3.162 |
4.435 |
2.214 |
1985.5 |
2.106 |
3.147 |
4.310 |
2.197 |
1985.75 |
2.102 |
3.131 |
4.551 |
2.182 |
1986 |
2.099 |
3.116 |
4.538 |
2.152 |
1986.25 |
2.096 |
3.102 |
3.789 |
2.130 |
1986.5 |
2.091 |
3.089 |
3.396 |
2.117 |
1986.75 |
2.086 |
3.076 |
3.363 |
2.115 |
1987 |
2.080 |
3.063 |
3.773 |
2.115 |
1987.25 |
2.073 |
3.049 |
3.948 |
2.134 |
1987.5 |
2.066 |
3.031 |
3.931 |
2.148 |
1987.75 |
2.057 |
3.009 |
3.788 |
2.164 |
1988 |
2.048 |
2.983 |
3.189 |
2.167 |
1988.25 |
2.039 |
2.957 |
3.466 |
2.184 |
1988.5 |
2.029 |
2.929 |
4.105 |
2.203 |
1988.75 |
2.017 |
2.898 |
4.574 |
2.220 |
1989 |
2.006 |
2.862 |
5.548 |
2.235 |
1989.25 |
1.994 |
2.823 |
6.182 |
2.246 |
1989.5 |
1.982 |
2.781 |
5.893 |
2.256 |
1989.75 |
1.968 |
2.738 |
5.567 |
2.272 |
1990 |
1.954 |
2.692 |
5.098 |
2.295 |
1990.25 |
1.941 |
2.645 |
4.875 |
2.317 |
1990.5 |
1.931 |
2.604 |
4.511 |
2.329 |
1990.75 |
1.923 |
2.573 |
4.131 |
2.342 |
1991 |
1.914 |
2.552 |
2.978 |
2.360 |
1991.25 |
1.906 |
2.532 |
2.712 |
2.378 |
1991.5 |
1.900 |
2.512 |
2.576 |
2.388 |
1991.75 |
1.894 |
2.494 |
1.742 |
2.394 |
1992 |
1.889 |
2.477 |
0.998 |
2.404 |
1992.25 |
1.883 |
2.459 |
0.781 |
2.404 |
1992.5 |
1.878 |
2.444 |
0.543 |
2.395 |
1992.75 |
1.873 |
2.433 |
0.348 |
2.394 |
1993 |
1.870 |
2.431 |
0.416 |
2.387 |
1993.25 |
1.866 |
2.438 |
0.317 |
2.400 |
1993.5 |
1.863 |
2.451 |
0.410 |
2.417 |
1993.75 |
1.859 |
2.466 |
0.562 |
2.438 |
1994 |
1.855 |
2.483 |
1.033 |
2.465 |
1994.25 |
1.850 |
2.501 |
1.889 |
2.494 |
1994.5 |
1.846 |
2.524 |
2.471 |
2.519 |
1994.75 |
1.841 |
2.550 |
3.200 |
2.547 |
1995 |
1.837 |
2.582 |
3.824 |
2.562 |
1995.25 |
1.833 |
2.619 |
4.150 |
2.560 |
1995.5 |
1.828 |
2.658 |
3.997 |
2.563 |
1995.75 |
1.823 |
2.697 |
3.920 |
2.563 |
1996 |
1.817 |
2.735 |
3.654 |
2.570 |
1996.25 |
1.810 |
2.769 |
3.629 |
2.593 |
1996.5 |
1.802 |
2.799 |
3.706 |
2.608 |
1996.75 |
1.794 |
2.829 |
3.616 |
2.613 |
1997 |
1.784 |
2.857 |
3.623 |
2.626 |
1997.25 |
1.773 |
2.881 |
3.836 |
2.627 |
1997.5 |
1.761 |
2.901 |
4.077 |
2.616 |
1997.75 |
1.748 |
2.918 |
4.299 |
2.604 |
1998 |
1.734 |
2.932 |
4.428 |
2.595 |
1998.25 |
1.720 |
2.942 |
4.618 |
2.565 |
1998.5 |
1.703 |
2.945 |
4.531 |
2.532 |
1998.75 |
1.685 |
2.939 |
3.818 |
2.499 |
1999 |
1.667 |
2.927 |
3.636 |
2.478 |
1999.25 |
1.648 |
2.912 |
3.644 |
2.454 |
1999.5 |
1.627 |
2.889 |
4.018 |
2.433 |
1999.75 |
1.605 |
2.857 |
4.098 |
2.416 |
2000 |
1.582 |
2.819 |
4.267 |
2.393 |
2000.25 |
1.557 |
2.775 |
4.894 |
2.370 |
2000.5 |
1.533 |
2.726 |
5.047 |
2.348 |
2000.75 |
1.508 |
2.679 |
4.969 |
2.331 |
2001 |
1.485 |
2.633 |
4.010 |
2.318 |
2001.25 |
1.462 |
2.588 |
2.594 |
2.325 |
2001.5 |
1.442 |
2.545 |
1.895 |
2.332 |
2001.75 |
1.421 |
2.503 |
0.442 |
2.333 |
2002 |
1.399 |
2.461 |
0.307 |
2.342 |
2002.25 |
1.378 |
2.419 |
0.130 |
2.342 |
2002.5 |
1.359 |
2.381 |
-0.111 |
2.340 |
2002.75 |
1.341 |
2.348 |
-0.256 |
2.347 |
2003 |
1.324 |
2.318 |
-0.414 |
2.356 |
2003.25 |
1.305 |
2.287 |
-0.196 |
2.355 |
2003.5 |
1.286 |
2.250 |
-0.320 |
2.363 |
2003.75 |
1.267 |
2.209 |
-0.343 |
2.361 |
2004 |
1.248 |
2.170 |
-0.633 |
2.352 |
2004.25 |
1.229 |
2.132 |
-0.869 |
2.341 |
2004.5 |
1.211 |
2.093 |
-0.492 |
2.315 |
2004.75 |
1.191 |
2.052 |
-0.074 |
2.289 |
2005 |
1.172 |
2.009 |
0.367 |
2.262 |
2005.25 |
1.152 |
1.963 |
0.935 |
2.229 |
2005.5 |
1.132 |
1.914 |
1.518 |
2.197 |
2005.75 |
1.111 |
1.861 |
1.882 |
2.175 |
2006 |
1.088 |
1.802 |
2.515 |
2.152 |
2006.25 |
1.066 |
1.738 |
2.855 |
2.131 |
2006.5 |
1.043 |
1.672 |
3.098 |
2.103 |
2006.75 |
1.019 |
1.601 |
3.328 |
2.074 |
2007 |
0.995 |
1.523 |
3.138 |
2.040 |
2007.25 |
0.969 |
1.438 |
3.451 |
2.004 |
2007.5 |
0.944 |
1.345 |
3.309 |
1.961 |
2007.75 |
0.919 |
1.248 |
2.441 |
1.909 |
2008 |
0.896 |
1.153 |
1.188 |
1.862 |
2008.25 |
0.875 |
1.060 |
-0.104 |
1.823 |
2008.5 |
0.861 |
0.974 |
-0.214 |
1.783 |
2008.75 |
0.853 |
0.905 |
-1.112 |
1.749 |
2009 |
0.847 |
0.853 |
-0.987 |
1.713 |
2009.25 |
0.843 |
0.809 |
-0.973 |
1.701 |
2009.5 |
0.839 |
0.765 |
-0.827 |
1.692 |
2009.75 |
0.836 |
0.719 |
-1.284 |
1.680 |
2010 |
0.833 |
0.673 |
-1.407 |
1.673 |
2010.25 |
0.831 |
0.629 |
-1.124 |
1.650 |
2010.5 |
0.829 |
0.585 |
-1.095 |
1.619 |
2010.75 |
0.829 |
0.544 |
-0.777 |
1.604 |
2011 |
0.829 |
0.510 |
-0.890 |
1.588 |
2011.25 |
0.830 |
0.480 |
-1.295 |
1.560 |
2011.5 |
0.831 |
0.451 |
-1.563 |
1.526 |
2011.75 |
0.831 |
0.422 |
-1.770 |
1.495 |
2012 |
0.832 |
0.393 |
-1.960 |
1.470 |
2012.25 |
0.834 |
0.367 |
-1.771 |
1.455 |
2012.5 |
0.837 |
0.346 |
-1.587 |
1.441 |
2012.75 |
0.841 |
0.331 |
-1.600 |
1.436 |
2013 |
0.844 |
0.318 |
-1.470 |
1.433 |
2013.25 |
0.847 |
0.307 |
-1.313 |
1.429 |
2013.5 |
0.849 |
0.297 |
-1.385 |
1.431 |
2013.75 |
0.852 |
0.286 |
-1.392 |
1.427 |
2014 |
0.855 |
0.277 |
-1.398 |
1.422 |
2014.25 |
0.856 |
0.270 |
-1.600 |
1.411 |
2014.5 |
0.856 |
0.259 |
-1.625 |
1.401 |
2014.75 |
0.857 |
0.246 |
-1.452 |
1.387 |
2015 |
0.858 |
0.236 |
-1.315 |
1.376 |
2015.25 |
0.858 |
0.226 |
-1.233 |
1.360 |
2015.5 |
0.858 |
0.218 |
-1.202 |
1.347 |
2015.75 |
0.859 |
0.214 |
-1.197 |
1.334 |
2016 |
0.860 |
0.213 |
-1.228 |
1.323 |
2016.25 |
0.860 |
0.215 |
-1.222 |
1.317 |
2016.5 |
0.860 |
0.216 |
-1.274 |
1.315 |
as of January 25 |
|
|
|
1.321 |
Return to text
Figure 3: Effect of Reductions in Federal Funds Rate and $500 Billion QE
The figure reports the effects of changes in the short-term interest rate and a $500 billion quantitative easing program on the short-term interest rate, 10-year Treasury yield, output gap, and inflation.
Return to text.
Figure 4: Outcomes under Alternative Approaches
case |
ELB frequency |
mean Output |
mean π |
RMSD Output |
RMSD π-2 |
QE D |
22.7 |
-0.1 |
1.9 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
Overshooting |
22 |
-0.1 |
2 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
π*=3 |
20.2 |
-0.4 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
1.9 |
Return to text