Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2019-022

Marketplace Lending and Consumer Credit Outcomes: Evidence from Prosper

Accessible version of figures


Figure 1: Relative Delinquency Rates, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the share of applicants with any account 90 days or more past due for borrowers and non-borrowers with the value in the quarter of loan application equal to 100.

Quarters from application Loan not originated Loan originated
t-4 122.76 124.27
t-3 117.07 114.31
t-2 106.37 105.68
t-1 100.00 100.00
t 93.29 93.26
t+1 103.84 94.57
t+2 129.31 103.41
t+3 148.47 113.98
t+4 167.10 127.34
t+5 179.80 136.37
t+6 183.25 144.19
t+7 199.54 151.70
t+8 191.02 141.70
t+9 180.99 130.71
t+10 167.73 122.40
t+11 155.63 117.09
t+12 159.71 120.36

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Figure 2: Predicted Credit Card Utilization Rate, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted credit card utilization rate by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 5. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.

Quarters from application Loan not originated Loan originated
t-1 0.56 0.56
t 0.56 0.44
t+1 0.55 0.49
t+2 0.56 0.53
t+3 0.56 0.54
t+4 0.57 0.55

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Figure 3: Predicted Credit Card Debt, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted natural log of credit card debt in thousands of dollars plus one by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 5. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.

Quarters from application Loan not originated Loan originated
t-1 2.084 2.084
t 2.128 1.822
t+1 2.135 2
t+2 2.174 2.112
t+3 2.199 2.172
t+4 2.219 2.207

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Figure 4: Predicted Credit Score, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted credit score by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 6. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.

Quarters from application Loan not originated Loan originated
t-1 690.977 690.976
t 688.814 701.327
t+1 684.628 695.216
t+2 679.81 689.135
t+3 676.902 684.406
t+4 674.888 681.299
t+5 674.066 678.929
t+6 672.934 677.199
t+7 671.564 675.557
t+8 671.52 674.758
t+9 672.115 674.234
t+10 672.415 673.953
t+11 672.061 674.528
t+12 673.11 676.588

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Figure 5: Predicted Total Debt, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted natural log of total debt in thousands of dollars plus one by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 7. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.

Quarters from application Loan not originated Loan originated
t-1 4.167 4.167
t 4.165 4.409
t+1 4.232 4.418
t+2 4.254 4.43
t+3 4.262 4.437
t+4 4.264 4.431
t+5 4.267 4.426
t+6 4.256 4.412
t+7 4.243 4.393
t+8 4.246 4.377
t+9 4.225 4.355
t+10 4.212 4.343
t+11 4.216 4.332
t+12 4.199 4.329

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Figure 6: Predicted Non-Mortgage Debt, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted natural log of non-mortgage debt in thousands of dollars plus one by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 8. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.

Quarters from application Loan not originated Loan originated
t-1 3.302 3.302
t 3.324 3.674
t+1 3.411 3.688
t+2 3.436 3.688
t+3 3.45 3.684
t+4 3.456 3.671
t+5 3.453 3.647
t+6 3.432 3.615
t+7 3.421 3.591
t+8 3.413 3.561
t+9 3.387 3.528
t+10 3.379 3.504
t+11 3.378 3.48
t+12 3.364 3.465

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Figure 7: Predicted Mortgage Debt, by Quarter |Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted natural log of mortgage debt in thousands of dollars plus one by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 9. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.

Quarters from application Loan not originated Loan originated
t-1 2.479 2.479
t 2.443 2.474
t+1 2.462 2.476
t+2 2.467 2.515
t+3 2.462 2.543
t+4 2.464 2.555
t+5 2.474 2.591
t+6 2.48 2.608
t+7 2.478 2.609
t+8 2.489 2.63
t+9 2.498 2.631
t+10 2.479 2.652
t+11 2.487 2.674
t+12 2.484 2.712

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Figure 8: Predicted Mortgage Debt, by Quarter - Homeowners Only
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted natural log of mortgage debt in thousands of dollars plus one by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 10. The sample is restricted to applicants that report owning a home on their application. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.

Quarters from application Loan not originated Loan originated
t-1 4.987 4.986
t 4.936 4.911
t+1 4.851 4.808
t+2 4.783 4.772
t+3 4.699 4.723
t+4 4.643 4.663
t+5 4.595 4.643
t+6 4.55 4.593
t+7 4.477 4.527
t+8 4.421 4.49
t+9 4.4 4.44
t+10 4.316 4.406
t+11 4.293 4.36
t+12 4.213 4.324

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Figure 9: Predicted Share with Any Mortgage Debt, by Quarter - Non-Homeowners Only
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted share of applicants with any mortgage debt by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 11. The sample is restricted to applicants that report not owning a home on their application. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.

Quarters from application Loan not originated Loan originated
t-1 0.053 0.053
t 0.051 0.066
t+1 0.071 0.081
t+2 0.082 0.1
t+3 0.092 0.116
t+4 0.101 0.131
t+5 0.112 0.147
t+6 0.119 0.159
t+7 0.13 0.17
t+8 0.139 0.181
t+9 0.146 0.19
t+10 0.157 0.207
t+11 0.164 0.224
t+12 0.172 0.236

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Figure 10: Predicted Mortgage Debt, by Quarter - Non-Homeowners Only
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted natural log of mortgage debt in thousands of dollars by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 12. The sample is restricted to applicants that report not owning a home on their application. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.

Quarters from application Loan not originated Loan originated
t 3.843 4.013
t+1 3.883 4.127
t+2 3.968 4.187
t+3 4.057 4.248
t+4 4.107 4.294
t+5 4.135 4.352
t+6 4.136 4.386
t+7 4.182 4.404
t+8 4.268 4.454
t+9 4.317 4.483
t+10 4.351 4.527
t+11 4.333 4.521
t+12 4.326 4.575

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Figure 11: Predicted Delinquency Rate, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted share of applicants with any account 90 days or more past due for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 14. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.

Quarters from application Loan not originated Loan originated
t-1 0.088 0.088
t 0.082 0.082
t+1 0.088 0.084
t+2 0.104 0.093
t+3 0.116 0.103
t+4 0.128 0.116
t+5 0.135 0.125
t+6 0.139 0.132
t+7 0.151 0.139
t+8 0.144 0.13
t+9 0.137 0.119
t+10 0.128 0.112
t+11 0.121 0.106
t+12 0.126 0.108

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