Figure 1: Relative Delinquency Rates, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the share of applicants with any account 90 days or more past due for
borrowers and non-borrowers with the value in the quarter of loan application equal to 100.
Quarters from application | Loan not originated | Loan originated |
---|---|---|
t-4 | 122.76 | 124.27 |
t-3 | 117.07 | 114.31 |
t-2 | 106.37 | 105.68 |
t-1 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
t | 93.29 | 93.26 |
t+1 | 103.84 | 94.57 |
t+2 | 129.31 | 103.41 |
t+3 | 148.47 | 113.98 |
t+4 | 167.10 | 127.34 |
t+5 | 179.80 | 136.37 |
t+6 | 183.25 | 144.19 |
t+7 | 199.54 | 151.70 |
t+8 | 191.02 | 141.70 |
t+9 | 180.99 | 130.71 |
t+10 | 167.73 | 122.40 |
t+11 | 155.63 | 117.09 |
t+12 | 159.71 | 120.36 |
Figure 2: Predicted Credit Card Utilization Rate, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted credit card utilization rate by quarter for
borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 5. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.
Quarters from application | Loan not originated | Loan originated |
---|---|---|
t-1 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
t | 0.56 | 0.44 |
t+1 | 0.55 | 0.49 |
t+2 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
t+3 | 0.56 | 0.54 |
t+4 | 0.57 | 0.55 |
Figure 3: Predicted Credit Card Debt, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted natural log of credit card debt in thousands of dollars plus one
by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 5. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.
Quarters from application | Loan not originated | Loan originated |
---|---|---|
t-1 | 2.084 | 2.084 |
t | 2.128 | 1.822 |
t+1 | 2.135 | 2 |
t+2 | 2.174 | 2.112 |
t+3 | 2.199 | 2.172 |
t+4 | 2.219 | 2.207 |
Figure 4: Predicted Credit Score, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted credit score by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the
estimates in Table 6. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.
Quarters from application | Loan not originated | Loan originated |
---|---|---|
t-1 | 690.977 | 690.976 |
t | 688.814 | 701.327 |
t+1 | 684.628 | 695.216 |
t+2 | 679.81 | 689.135 |
t+3 | 676.902 | 684.406 |
t+4 | 674.888 | 681.299 |
t+5 | 674.066 | 678.929 |
t+6 | 672.934 | 677.199 |
t+7 | 671.564 | 675.557 |
t+8 | 671.52 | 674.758 |
t+9 | 672.115 | 674.234 |
t+10 | 672.415 | 673.953 |
t+11 | 672.061 | 674.528 |
t+12 | 673.11 | 676.588 |
Figure 5: Predicted Total Debt, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted natural log of total debt in thousands of dollars plus one by quarter
for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 7. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.
Quarters from application | Loan not originated | Loan originated |
---|---|---|
t-1 | 4.167 | 4.167 |
t | 4.165 | 4.409 |
t+1 | 4.232 | 4.418 |
t+2 | 4.254 | 4.43 |
t+3 | 4.262 | 4.437 |
t+4 | 4.264 | 4.431 |
t+5 | 4.267 | 4.426 |
t+6 | 4.256 | 4.412 |
t+7 | 4.243 | 4.393 |
t+8 | 4.246 | 4.377 |
t+9 | 4.225 | 4.355 |
t+10 | 4.212 | 4.343 |
t+11 | 4.216 | 4.332 |
t+12 | 4.199 | 4.329 |
Figure 6: Predicted Non-Mortgage Debt, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted natural log of non-mortgage debt in thousands of dollars plus
one by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 8. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.
Quarters from application | Loan not originated | Loan originated |
---|---|---|
t-1 | 3.302 | 3.302 |
t | 3.324 | 3.674 |
t+1 | 3.411 | 3.688 |
t+2 | 3.436 | 3.688 |
t+3 | 3.45 | 3.684 |
t+4 | 3.456 | 3.671 |
t+5 | 3.453 | 3.647 |
t+6 | 3.432 | 3.615 |
t+7 | 3.421 | 3.591 |
t+8 | 3.413 | 3.561 |
t+9 | 3.387 | 3.528 |
t+10 | 3.379 | 3.504 |
t+11 | 3.378 | 3.48 |
t+12 | 3.364 | 3.465 |
Figure 7: Predicted Mortgage Debt, by Quarter |Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted natural log of mortgage debt in thousands of dollars plus one by
quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 9. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.
Quarters from application | Loan not originated | Loan originated |
---|---|---|
t-1 | 2.479 | 2.479 |
t | 2.443 | 2.474 |
t+1 | 2.462 | 2.476 |
t+2 | 2.467 | 2.515 |
t+3 | 2.462 | 2.543 |
t+4 | 2.464 | 2.555 |
t+5 | 2.474 | 2.591 |
t+6 | 2.48 | 2.608 |
t+7 | 2.478 | 2.609 |
t+8 | 2.489 | 2.63 |
t+9 | 2.498 | 2.631 |
t+10 | 2.479 | 2.652 |
t+11 | 2.487 | 2.674 |
t+12 | 2.484 | 2.712 |
Figure 8: Predicted Mortgage Debt, by Quarter - Homeowners Only
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted natural log of mortgage debt in thousands of
dollars plus one by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 10. The sample is restricted to applicants that report owning a home on their application. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.
Quarters from application | Loan not originated | Loan originated |
---|---|---|
t-1 | 4.987 | 4.986 |
t | 4.936 | 4.911 |
t+1 | 4.851 | 4.808 |
t+2 | 4.783 | 4.772 |
t+3 | 4.699 | 4.723 |
t+4 | 4.643 | 4.663 |
t+5 | 4.595 | 4.643 |
t+6 | 4.55 | 4.593 |
t+7 | 4.477 | 4.527 |
t+8 | 4.421 | 4.49 |
t+9 | 4.4 | 4.44 |
t+10 | 4.316 | 4.406 |
t+11 | 4.293 | 4.36 |
t+12 | 4.213 | 4.324 |
Figure 9: Predicted Share with Any Mortgage Debt, by Quarter - Non-Homeowners Only
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted share of applicants with any
mortgage debt by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 11. The sample is restricted to applicants that report not owning a home on their application. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.
Quarters from application | Loan not originated | Loan originated |
---|---|---|
t-1 | 0.053 | 0.053 |
t | 0.051 | 0.066 |
t+1 | 0.071 | 0.081 |
t+2 | 0.082 | 0.1 |
t+3 | 0.092 | 0.116 |
t+4 | 0.101 | 0.131 |
t+5 | 0.112 | 0.147 |
t+6 | 0.119 | 0.159 |
t+7 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
t+8 | 0.139 | 0.181 |
t+9 | 0.146 | 0.19 |
t+10 | 0.157 | 0.207 |
t+11 | 0.164 | 0.224 |
t+12 | 0.172 | 0.236 |
Figure 10: Predicted Mortgage Debt, by Quarter - Non-Homeowners Only
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted natural log of mortgage debt in thousands of
dollars by quarter for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 12. The sample is restricted to applicants that report not owning a home on their application. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.
Quarters from application | Loan not originated | Loan originated |
---|---|---|
t | 3.843 | 4.013 |
t+1 | 3.883 | 4.127 |
t+2 | 3.968 | 4.187 |
t+3 | 4.057 | 4.248 |
t+4 | 4.107 | 4.294 |
t+5 | 4.135 | 4.352 |
t+6 | 4.136 | 4.386 |
t+7 | 4.182 | 4.404 |
t+8 | 4.268 | 4.454 |
t+9 | 4.317 | 4.483 |
t+10 | 4.351 | 4.527 |
t+11 | 4.333 | 4.521 |
t+12 | 4.326 | 4.575 |
Figure 11: Predicted Delinquency Rate, by Quarter
Source: Authors' calculations based on FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and Prosper Funding LLC data.
Note: This figure plots the predicted share of applicants with any account 90 days or more past due
for borrowers and non-borrowers using the estimates in Table 14. The other control variables are evaluated at their mean value.
Quarters from application | Loan not originated | Loan originated |
---|---|---|
t-1 | 0.088 | 0.088 |
t | 0.082 | 0.082 |
t+1 | 0.088 | 0.084 |
t+2 | 0.104 | 0.093 |
t+3 | 0.116 | 0.103 |
t+4 | 0.128 | 0.116 |
t+5 | 0.135 | 0.125 |
t+6 | 0.139 | 0.132 |
t+7 | 0.151 | 0.139 |
t+8 | 0.144 | 0.13 |
t+9 | 0.137 | 0.119 |
t+10 | 0.128 | 0.112 |
t+11 | 0.121 | 0.106 |
t+12 | 0.126 | 0.108 |