Figure 1: Confidence Level Shares By Distance from Inflation Target For Not Confident Sample
Short Run
bin | percent_NotConfident | bin_labels |
---|---|---|
1 | 62.00 | x <= -2.0 |
2 | 48.62 | -2.0 < x <= -1.5 |
3 | 46.49 | -1.5 < x <= -1.0 |
4 | 49.06 | -1.0 < x <= -0.5 |
5 | 51.66 | -0.5 < x <= 0 |
6 | 58.03 | 0 < x <= 0.5 |
7 | 66.27 | 0.5 < x <= 1.0 |
8 | 71.13 | 1.0 < x <= 1.5 |
9 | 73.47 | 1.5 < x <= 2.0 |
10 | 75.16 | 2.0 < x <= 2.5 |
11 | 73.01 | 2.5 < x <= 3.0 |
12 | 73.52 | x > 3.0 |
Medium Run
bin | percent_NotConfident | bin_labels |
---|---|---|
1 | 68.76 | x <= -2.0 |
2 | 56.86 | -2.0 < x <= -1.5 |
3 | 51.04 | -1.5 < x <= -1.0 |
4 | 48.80 | -1.0 < x <= -0.5 |
5 | 44.17 | -0.5 < x <= 0 |
6 | 46.38 | 0 < x <= 0.5 |
7 | 53.67 | 0.5 < x <= 1.0 |
8 | 61.65 | 1.0 < x <= 1.5 |
9 | 61.32 | 1.5 < x <= 2.0 |
10 | 71.62 | 2.0 < x <= 2.5 |
11 | 66.78 | 2.5 < x <= 3.0 |
12 | 72.90 | x > 3.0 |
Figure 2: Distribution of Short- and Medium-run Inflation Expectations of Confident and Non-Confident Individuals
Notes: The black outlined clear bars show the distribution of confident individuals' inflation expectations, while the pink bars show the
distribution of expectations of not-confident individuals.
InflationBin | frequency_notConf | frequency_Conf |
---|---|---|
-3.5 | 21 | 2 |
-2.5 | 47 | 11 |
-1.5 | 62 | 33 |
-0.5 | 145 | 72 |
0.5 | 1501 | 1095 |
1.5 | 3245 | 3373 |
2.5 | 4570 | 5654 |
3.5 | 4389 | 3584 |
4.5 | 2556 | 1514 |
5.5 | 3613 | 1877 |
6.5 | 1101 | 488 |
7.5 | 745 | 308 |
8.5 | 734 | 312 |
9.5 | 1510 | 582 |
Figure A.1: Perception of ECB's inflation target in different euro-area countries.
rsquared
loop | Italy | Austria | Germany | Spain | France |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 0.1127 | 0.0824 | 0.0904 | 0.1234 | 0.1286 |
0.05 | 0.1526 | 0.1048 | 0.1046 | 0.1692 | 0.1851 |
0.1 | 0.1529 | 0.1048 | 0.1046 | 0.1694 | 0.1855 |
0.15 | 0.1580 | 0.1064 | 0.1066 | 0.1736 | 0.1912 |
0.2 | 0.1583 | 0.1063 | 0.1065 | 0.1738 | 0.1914 |
0.25 | 0.1660 | 0.1087 | 0.1125 | 0.1844 | 0.2038 |
0.3 | 0.1667 | 0.1085 | 0.1131 | 0.1861 | 0.2038 |
0.35 | 0.1706 | 0.1102 | 0.1162 | 0.1896 | 0.2080 |
0.4 | 0.1707 | 0.1102 | 0.1161 | 0.1901 | 0.2083 |
0.45 | 0.1723 | 0.1109 | 0.1186 | 0.1927 | 0.2105 |
0.5 | 0.1723 | 0.1109 | 0.1186 | 0.1927 | 0.2105 |
0.55 | 0.1943 | 0.1212 | 0.1354 | 0.2171 | 0.2389 |
0.6 | 0.1943 | 0.1206 | 0.1354 | 0.2171 | 0.2387 |
0.65 | 0.1973 | 0.1234 | 0.1381 | 0.2198 | 0.2407 |
0.7 | 0.2004 | 0.1251 | 0.1412 | 0.2216 | 0.2415 |
0.75 | 0.2004 | 0.1251 | 0.1418 | 0.2223 | 0.2417 |
0.8 | 0.2044 | 0.1307 | 0.1484 | 0.2278 | 0.2453 |
0.85 | 0.2044 | 0.1307 | 0.1483 | 0.2278 | 0.2452 |
0.9 | 0.2072 | 0.1348 | 0.1532 | 0.2304 | 0.2479 |
0.95 | 0.2072 | 0.1348 | 0.1534 | 0.2305 | 0.2481 |
1 | 0.2061 | 0.1316 | 0.1528 | 0.2293 | 0.2464 |
1.05 | 0.2875 | 0.2144 | 0.2134 | 0.3104 | 0.3362 |
1.1 | 0.2888 | 0.2144 | 0.2137 | 0.3113 | 0.3366 |
1.15 | 0.2942 | 0.2195 | 0.2195 | 0.3179 | 0.3407 |
1.2 | 0.2942 | 0.2195 | 0.2195 | 0.3179 | 0.3410 |
1.25 | 0.2989 | 0.2245 | 0.2268 | 0.3251 | 0.3460 |
1.3 | 0.3054 | 0.2312 | 0.2343 | 0.3305 | 0.3494 |
1.35 | 0.3056 | 0.2311 | 0.2343 | 0.3306 | 0.3494 |
1.4 | 0.3088 | 0.2356 | 0.2378 | 0.3331 | 0.3505 |
1.45 | 0.3090 | 0.2356 | 0.2384 | 0.3333 | 0.3506 |
1.5 | 0.3334 | 0.2486 | 0.2753 | 0.3597 | 0.3764 |
1.55 | 0.3334 | 0.2486 | 0.2753 | 0.3599 | 0.3764 |
1.6 | 0.3345 | 0.2508 | 0.2792 | 0.3616 | 0.3773 |
1.65 | 0.3345 | 0.2508 | 0.2792 | 0.3616 | 0.3773 |
1.7 | 0.3354 | 0.2537 | 0.2811 | 0.3643 | 0.3775 |
1.75 | 0.3354 | 0.2537 | 0.2815 | 0.3649 | 0.3774 |
1.8 | 0.3386 | 0.2561 | 0.2881 | 0.3691 | 0.3781 |
1.85 | 0.3387 | 0.2561 | 0.2882 | 0.3691 | 0.3781 |
1.9 | 0.3396 | 0.2572 | 0.2905 | 0.3714 | 0.3786 |
1.95 | 0.3397 | 0.2572 | 0.2906 | 0.3714 | 0.3785 |
2 | 0.4377 | 0.3737 | 0.3775 | 0.4564 | 0.4679 |
2.05 | 0.4377 | 0.3737 | 0.3775 | 0.4565 | 0.4679 |
2.1 | 0.4406 | 0.3764 | 0.3825 | 0.4603 | 0.4686 |
2.15 | 0.4406 | 0.3764 | 0.3825 | 0.4603 | 0.4687 |
2.2 | 0.4404 | 0.3764 | 0.3825 | 0.4603 | 0.4685 |
2.25 | 0.4453 | 0.3854 | 0.3890 | 0.4678 | 0.4724 |
2.3 | 0.4452 | 0.3852 | 0.3890 | 0.4684 | 0.4726 |
2.35 | 0.4480 | 0.3867 | 0.3907 | 0.4713 | 0.4736 |
2.4 | 0.4479 | 0.3865 | 0.3906 | 0.4712 | 0.4736 |
2.45 | 0.4501 | 0.3889 | 0.3937 | 0.4739 | 0.4750 |
2.5 | 0.4501 | 0.3889 | 0.3937 | 0.4740 | 0.4750 |
2.55 | 0.4686 | 0.4014 | 0.4171 | 0.4961 | 0.4862 |
2.6 | 0.4688 | 0.4014 | 0.4176 | 0.4963 | 0.4865 |
2.65 | 0.4698 | 0.4019 | 0.4196 | 0.4974 | 0.4864 |
2.7 | 0.4698 | 0.4019 | 0.4196 | 0.4974 | 0.4864 |
2.75 | 0.4715 | 0.4023 | 0.4214 | 0.4981 | 0.4869 |
2.8 | 0.4715 | 0.4025 | 0.4220 | 0.4985 | 0.4869 |
2.85 | 0.4723 | 0.4030 | 0.4244 | 0.5007 | 0.4872 |
2.9 | 0.4723 | 0.4030 | 0.4245 | 0.5012 | 0.4872 |
2.95 | 0.4729 | 0.4038 | 0.4263 | 0.5016 | 0.4874 |
3 | 0.4729 | 0.4040 | 0.4263 | 0.5018 | 0.4874 |
3.05 | 0.5228 | 0.4806 | 0.4790 | 0.5419 | 0.5160 |
3.1 | 0.5228 | 0.4806 | 0.4794 | 0.5421 | 0.5160 |
3.15 | 0.5237 | 0.4816 | 0.4812 | 0.5441 | 0.5160 |
3.2 | 0.5237 | 0.4816 | 0.4820 | 0.5447 | 0.5160 |
3.25 | 0.5259 | 0.4821 | 0.4847 | 0.5474 | 0.5173 |
3.3 | 0.5261 | 0.4821 | 0.4849 | 0.5474 | 0.5173 |
3.35 | 0.5272 | 0.4832 | 0.4872 | 0.5498 | 0.5175 |
3.4 | 0.5272 | 0.4832 | 0.4872 | 0.5498 | 0.5175 |
3.45 | 0.5275 | 0.4850 | 0.4873 | 0.5504 | 0.5177 |
3.5 | 0.5275 | 0.4850 | 0.4873 | 0.5506 | 0.5177 |
3.55 | 0.5356 | 0.4916 | 0.4951 | 0.5597 | 0.5222 |
3.6 | 0.5356 | 0.4916 | 0.4954 | 0.5599 | 0.5222 |
3.65 | 0.5355 | 0.4919 | 0.4965 | 0.5601 | 0.5233 |
3.7 | 0.5355 | 0.4919 | 0.4965 | 0.5601 | 0.5233 |
3.75 | 0.5360 | 0.4919 | 0.4974 | 0.5608 | 0.5235 |
3.8 | 0.5360 | 0.4918 | 0.4973 | 0.5607 | 0.5235 |
3.85 | 0.5362 | 0.4922 | 0.4988 | 0.5610 | 0.5243 |
3.9 | 0.5362 | 0.4922 | 0.4990 | 0.5609 | 0.5243 |
3.95 | 0.5372 | 0.4921 | 0.5003 | 0.5610 | 0.5245 |
4 | 0.5372 | 0.4920 | 0.5003 | 0.5610 | 0.5245 |