Figure 1: Total Reported Community Development Loan Originations, by Year
Note: Figure shows the total dollar amount of reported community development lending by banks, in year 2018 dollars. Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council data,
available at https://www.ffiec.gov/cra/.
Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council data, available at https://www.ffiec.gov/cra/.
Year | Reported Community Development Loans (2018 dollars) |
---|---|
2004 | 65,555,448,473 |
2005 | 65,393,877,270 |
2006 | 68,470,597,228 |
2007 | 75,437,227,758 |
2008 | 83,262,893,194 |
2009 | 39,906,944,939 |
2010 | 45,561,968,520 |
2011 | 51,967,592,928 |
2012 | 59,273,474,612 |
2013 | 69,436,285,984 |
2014 | 78,485,719,812 |
2015 | 91,365,895,744 |
2016 | 99,920,495,754 |
2017 | 98,137,588,283 |
2018 | 102,858,000,000 |
Figure 2: Out of Sample Cross Validation of Bank Propensity to Finance Community Development
Note: Figure shows the distribution of estimated coefficients on
$${CDFE} \times D$$, from a regression of banks' community development loans or investments at the assessment area level on
$${CDFE} \times D$$, $$D$$ (deposits) and a constant term, where $${CDFE}$$ (the bank fixed propensity to do community development financing) is calculated from a randomly chosen training sample, and the regressions are run on a complementary test sample. Distributions produced from 500 independent splits of the data into training and test samples.
Panel (a) shows the distributions for community development loans, Panel (b) shows the distribution for investments. Dashed vertical lines represent the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the distributions.
Figures include solid vertical lines at values of 0 for CDFE x D. Panel A has dashed vertical lines representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the distribution at 0.22 and 1.63. Panel B has dashed vertical lines representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the distribution at -0.85 and 2.81.
(A) Loans
Coefficient on CDFE x D | Frequency |
---|---|
0.0 | 3 |
0.1 | 2 |
0.2 | 10 |
0.3 | 17 |
0.4 | 32 |
0.5 | 42 |
0.6 | 59 |
0.7 | 76 |
0.8 | 56 |
0.9 | 48 |
1.0 | 41 |
1.1 | 35 |
1.2 | 22 |
1.3 | 25 |
1.4 | 10 |
1.5 | 6 |
1.6 | 6 |
1.7 | 4 |
1.8 | 2 |
1.9 | 2 |
2.0 | 1 |
2.1 | 1 |
(B) Investments
Coefficient on CDFE x D | Frequency |
---|---|
-1.1 | 3 |
-1.0 | 2 |
-0.9 | 7 |
-0.8 | 3 |
-0.7 | 5 |
-0.6 | 3 |
-0.5 | 14 |
-0.4 | 16 |
-0.3 | 23 |
-0.2 | 36 |
-0.1 | 45 |
0.0 | 43 |
0.1 | 45 |
0.2 | 55 |
0.3 | 36 |
0.4 | 28 |
0.5 | 16 |
0.6 | 7 |
0.7 | 8 |
0.8 | 7 |
0.9 | 5 |
1.0 | 7 |
1.1 | 4 |
1.2 | 4 |
1.3 | 6 |
1.4 | 5 |
1.5 | 7 |
1.6 | 6 |
1.8 | 6 |
1.9 | 2 |
2.0 | 3 |
2.1 | 7 |
2.2 | 5 |
2.3 | 3 |
2.4 | 4 |
2.5 | 5 |
2.6 | 2 |
2.7 | 2 |
2.8 | 6 |
3.2 | 2 |
3.7 | 3 |
4.1 | 1 |
4.2 | 1 |
4.9 | 1 |
5.8 | 1 |
Figure 3: Effects of Community Development Lending
Note: Figures show estimated elasticities of county level employment, wages, affordable housing properties, and house prices, by year, to the year $$t$$ supply of community development lending. 95% confidence intervals, obtained via bootstrap as described in Section 4 and robust to two-way clustering at the bank and county levels, are displayed as vertical lines.
Standard errors shown in parenthesis below coefficient estimate. *: p<0.05, **: p< 0.01
Year | Employment | Wages | Affordable Housing | House Prices |
---|---|---|---|---|
t-4 | -0.0020 | -0.0003 | 0.0077 | -0.0027 |
t-4, s.e. | (0.0033) | (0.0044) | (0.0049) | (0.0046) |
t-3 | -0.0004 | -0.0019 | -0.0019 | -0.0027 |
t-3, s.e. | (0.003) | (0.0037) | (0.0044) | (0.0046) |
t-2 | 0.0013 | -0.0006 | -0.0099 | 0.0012 |
t-2, s.e. | (0.0024) | (0.0034) | (0.0062) | (0.0044) |
t-1 | 0.0007 | -0.0006 | 0.0057 | -0.0055 |
t-1, s.e. | (0.0024) | (0.0031) | (0.0041) | (0.0040) |
t | -0.0041 | -0.0027 | 0.0001 | -0.0015 |
t, s.e. | (0.0027) | (0.0038) | (0.0046) | (0.0041) |
t+1 | -0.0001 | -0.0020 | -0.0004 | 0.0027 |
t+1, s.e. | (0.0031) | (0.0044) | (0.0044) | (0.0041) |
t+2 | 0.0082* | 0.0120* | 0.0020 | -0.0020 |
t+2, s.e. | (0.0038) | (0.0054) | (0.0037) | (0.0041) |
t+3 | -0.0008 | -0.0001 | -0.0035 | -0.0005 |
t+3, s.e. | (0.003) | (0.0040) | (0.0049) | (0.0044) |
t+4 | 0.0006 | -0.0016 | 0.0046 | -0.0014 |
t+4, s.e. | (0.0033) | (0.0054) | (0.0048) | (0.0046) |
Figure 4: Elasticity of Other Lending to Community Development Lending Supply
Note: Figures show estimated elasticities of county level small business and farm lending, and residential mortgage lending, by year, to the year $$t$$ supply of community development lending. 95% confidence intervals, obtained via bootstrap as described in Section 4 and robust to two-way clustering at the bank and county levels, are displayed as vertical
lines.
Standard errors shown in parenthesis below coefficient estimate. *: p<0.05, **: p< 0.01
Year | Small Business and Farm | HMDA |
---|---|---|
t-4 | -0.0441 | 0.0098 |
t-4, s.e. | (0.0259) | (0.0164) |
t-3 | 0.0204 | -0.0068 |
t-3, s.e. | (0.0211) | (0.0149) |
t-2 | -0.0181 | -0.0163 |
t-2, s.e. | (0.0234) | (0.0245) |
t-1 | 0.0186 | -0.0024 |
t-1, s.e. | (0.0231) | (0.0183) |
t | 0.0641* | 0.0141 |
t, s.e. | (0.0300) | (0.0172) |
t+1 | -0.0005 | 0.0157 |
t+1, s.e. | (0.0275) | (0.0190) |
t+2 | 0.0076 | -0.0132 |
t+2, s.e. | (0.0283) | (0.0181) |
t+3 | 0.0160 | 0.0186 |
t+3, s.e. | (0.0236) | (0.0171) |
t+4 | 0.0313 | -0.0113 |
t+4, s.e. | (0.0264) | (0.0137) |
Figure 5: Effects of Community Development Investment
Note: Figures show estimated elasticities of county level employment, wages, affordable housing properties, and house prices, by year, to the year $$t$$ supply of community development investment. 95% confidence intervals, obtained via bootstrap as described in Section 4 and robust to two-way clustering at the bank and county levels, are displayed as vertical lines.
Standard errors shown in parenthesis below coefficient estimate. *: p<0.05, **: p< 0.01
Year | Employment | Wages | Affordable Housing | House Prices |
---|---|---|---|---|
t-4 | 0.0031 | 0.0026 | -0.0007 | -0.0016 |
t-4, s.e. | (0.0024) | (0.0034) | (0.0044) | (0.0071) |
t-3 | -0.0015 | -0.0035 | 0.0022 | 0.0001 |
t-3, s.e. | (0.0023) | (0.0031) | (0.0043) | (0.0066) |
t-2 | 0.0009 | 0.0022 | 0.0011 | -0.0038 |
t-2, s.e. | (0.0022) | (0.003) | (0.0060) | (0.0049) |
t-1 | 0.0001 | 0.0004 | -0.0018 | -0.0082 |
t-1, s.e. | (0.0033) | (0.0038) | (0.0037) | (0.0063) |
t | -0.0002 | 0.0003 | -0.0049 | 0.0007 |
t, s.e. | (0.0023) | (0.0029) | (0.0046) | (0.0060) |
t+1 | 0.0014 | -0.0003 | 0.0049 | -0.0035 |
t+1, s.e. | (0.0026) | (0.0038) | (0.0054) | (0.0063) |
t+2 | 0.0038 | 0.0055 | 0.0038 | 0.0019 |
t+2, s.e. | (0.0024) | (0.0035) | (0.0038) | (0.0046) |
t+3 | -0.0038 | -0.0035 | 0.0020 | -0.0037 |
t+3, s.e. | (0.0035) | (0.0035) | (0.0044) | (0.0049) |
t+4 | -0.0034 | -0.0081 | 0.0005 | 0.0052 |
t+4, s.e. | (0.0031) | (0.0057) | (0.0041) | (0.0052) |