Figure 1: Baseline mortality assumptions for COVID-19 pandemic
Source: Authors' interpolation of estimates from Verity et al., 2020; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) - University of Washington.
Notes: In the right panel, the shaded area around the mean represents the projection's 95-percent uncertainty band. The IHEM projection for total U.S. deaths attributable to COVID-19 is dated June 13, 2020, and uses smoothed data.
Left panel: Infection Fatality Rate (in percent)
Middle of quarterly age bin (in years) | Rate |
---|---|
0.125 | 0.00 |
0.375 | 0.00 |
0.625 | 0.00 |
0.875 | 0.00 |
1.125 | 0.00 |
1.375 | 0.00 |
1.625 | 0.00 |
1.875 | 0.00 |
2.125 | 0.00 |
2.375 | 0.00 |
2.625 | 0.00 |
2.875 | 0.00 |
3.125 | 0.00 |
3.375 | 0.00 |
3.625 | 0.00 |
3.875 | 0.00 |
4.125 | 0.00 |
4.375 | 0.00 |
4.625 | 0.00 |
4.875 | 0.00 |
5.125 | 0.00 |
5.375 | 0.00 |
5.625 | 0.00 |
5.875 | 0.00 |
6.125 | 0.00 |
6.375 | 0.00 |
6.625 | 0.00 |
6.875 | 0.00 |
7.125 | 0.00 |
7.375 | 0.00 |
7.625 | 0.00 |
7.875 | 0.00 |
8.125 | 0.00 |
8.375 | 0.00 |
8.625 | 0.00 |
8.875 | 0.00 |
9.125 | 0.00 |
9.375 | 0.00 |
9.625 | 0.00 |
9.875 | 0.00 |
10.125 | 0.00 |
10.375 | 0.00 |
10.625 | 0.00 |
10.875 | 0.00 |
11.125 | 0.00 |
11.375 | 0.00 |
11.625 | 0.00 |
11.875 | 0.00 |
12.125 | 0.00 |
12.375 | 0.00 |
12.625 | 0.00 |
12.875 | 0.00 |
13.125 | 0.01 |
13.375 | 0.01 |
13.625 | 0.01 |
13.875 | 0.01 |
14.125 | 0.01 |
14.375 | 0.01 |
14.625 | 0.01 |
14.875 | 0.01 |
15.125 | 0.01 |
15.375 | 0.01 |
15.625 | 0.01 |
15.875 | 0.01 |
16.125 | 0.01 |
16.375 | 0.01 |
16.625 | 0.01 |
16.875 | 0.01 |
17.125 | 0.01 |
17.375 | 0.01 |
17.625 | 0.01 |
17.875 | 0.01 |
18.125 | 0.01 |
18.375 | 0.01 |
18.625 | 0.01 |
18.875 | 0.01 |
19.125 | 0.01 |
19.375 | 0.01 |
19.625 | 0.01 |
19.875 | 0.01 |
20.125 | 0.01 |
20.375 | 0.02 |
20.625 | 0.02 |
20.875 | 0.02 |
21.125 | 0.02 |
21.375 | 0.02 |
21.625 | 0.02 |
21.875 | 0.02 |
22.125 | 0.02 |
22.375 | 0.02 |
22.625 | 0.02 |
22.875 | 0.02 |
23.125 | 0.02 |
23.375 | 0.02 |
23.625 | 0.03 |
23.875 | 0.03 |
24.125 | 0.03 |
24.375 | 0.03 |
24.625 | 0.03 |
24.875 | 0.03 |
25.125 | 0.03 |
25.375 | 0.03 |
25.625 | 0.03 |
25.875 | 0.04 |
26.125 | 0.04 |
26.375 | 0.04 |
26.625 | 0.04 |
26.875 | 0.04 |
27.125 | 0.04 |
27.375 | 0.04 |
27.625 | 0.04 |
27.875 | 0.05 |
28.125 | 0.05 |
28.375 | 0.05 |
28.625 | 0.05 |
28.875 | 0.05 |
29.125 | 0.05 |
29.375 | 0.05 |
29.625 | 0.06 |
29.875 | 0.06 |
30.125 | 0.06 |
30.375 | 0.06 |
30.625 | 0.06 |
30.875 | 0.06 |
31.125 | 0.06 |
31.375 | 0.07 |
31.625 | 0.07 |
31.875 | 0.07 |
32.125 | 0.07 |
32.375 | 0.07 |
32.625 | 0.07 |
32.875 | 0.07 |
33.125 | 0.08 |
33.375 | 0.08 |
33.625 | 0.08 |
33.875 | 0.08 |
34.125 | 0.08 |
34.375 | 0.08 |
34.625 | 0.08 |
34.875 | 0.08 |
35.125 | 0.08 |
35.375 | 0.09 |
35.625 | 0.09 |
35.875 | 0.09 |
36.125 | 0.09 |
36.375 | 0.09 |
36.625 | 0.09 |
36.875 | 0.09 |
37.125 | 0.09 |
37.375 | 0.09 |
37.625 | 0.09 |
37.875 | 0.10 |
38.125 | 0.10 |
38.375 | 0.10 |
38.625 | 0.10 |
38.875 | 0.10 |
39.125 | 0.10 |
39.375 | 0.10 |
39.625 | 0.10 |
39.875 | 0.11 |
40.125 | 0.11 |
40.375 | 0.11 |
40.625 | 0.11 |
40.875 | 0.11 |
41.125 | 0.11 |
41.375 | 0.12 |
41.625 | 0.12 |
41.875 | 0.12 |
42.125 | 0.12 |
42.375 | 0.13 |
42.625 | 0.13 |
42.875 | 0.13 |
43.125 | 0.13 |
43.375 | 0.14 |
43.625 | 0.14 |
43.875 | 0.14 |
44.125 | 0.15 |
44.375 | 0.15 |
44.625 | 0.15 |
44.875 | 0.16 |
45.125 | 0.16 |
45.375 | 0.17 |
45.625 | 0.17 |
45.875 | 0.18 |
46.125 | 0.18 |
46.375 | 0.19 |
46.625 | 0.19 |
46.875 | 0.20 |
47.125 | 0.21 |
47.375 | 0.21 |
47.625 | 0.22 |
47.875 | 0.23 |
48.125 | 0.23 |
48.375 | 0.24 |
48.625 | 0.25 |
48.875 | 0.26 |
49.125 | 0.27 |
49.375 | 0.28 |
49.625 | 0.29 |
49.875 | 0.30 |
50.125 | 0.31 |
50.375 | 0.32 |
50.625 | 0.33 |
50.875 | 0.34 |
51.125 | 0.35 |
51.375 | 0.36 |
51.625 | 0.38 |
51.875 | 0.39 |
52.125 | 0.40 |
52.375 | 0.42 |
52.625 | 0.43 |
52.875 | 0.45 |
53.125 | 0.46 |
53.375 | 0.48 |
53.625 | 0.49 |
53.875 | 0.51 |
54.125 | 0.53 |
54.375 | 0.55 |
54.625 | 0.57 |
54.875 | 0.59 |
55.125 | 0.61 |
55.375 | 0.63 |
55.625 | 0.65 |
55.875 | 0.67 |
56.125 | 0.69 |
56.375 | 0.71 |
56.625 | 0.74 |
56.875 | 0.76 |
57.125 | 0.79 |
57.375 | 0.81 |
57.625 | 0.84 |
57.875 | 0.86 |
58.125 | 0.89 |
58.375 | 0.92 |
58.625 | 0.95 |
58.875 | 0.98 |
59.125 | 1.01 |
59.375 | 1.04 |
59.625 | 1.07 |
59.875 | 1.10 |
60.125 | 1.13 |
60.375 | 1.17 |
60.625 | 1.20 |
60.875 | 1.24 |
61.125 | 1.27 |
61.375 | 1.31 |
61.625 | 1.35 |
61.875 | 1.38 |
62.125 | 1.42 |
62.375 | 1.46 |
62.625 | 1.50 |
62.875 | 1.55 |
63.125 | 1.59 |
63.375 | 1.63 |
63.625 | 1.67 |
63.875 | 1.72 |
64.125 | 1.76 |
64.375 | 1.81 |
64.625 | 1.86 |
64.875 | 1.91 |
65.125 | 1.95 |
65.375 | 2.00 |
65.625 | 2.05 |
65.875 | 2.11 |
66.125 | 2.16 |
66.375 | 2.21 |
66.625 | 2.26 |
66.875 | 2.32 |
67.125 | 2.37 |
67.375 | 2.43 |
67.625 | 2.49 |
67.875 | 2.54 |
68.125 | 2.60 |
68.375 | 2.66 |
68.625 | 2.72 |
68.875 | 2.77 |
69.125 | 2.83 |
69.375 | 2.89 |
69.625 | 2.95 |
69.875 | 3.01 |
70.125 | 3.07 |
70.375 | 3.14 |
70.625 | 3.20 |
70.875 | 3.26 |
71.125 | 3.32 |
71.375 | 3.38 |
71.625 | 3.44 |
71.875 | 3.51 |
72.125 | 3.57 |
72.375 | 3.63 |
72.625 | 3.69 |
72.875 | 3.75 |
73.125 | 3.82 |
73.375 | 3.88 |
73.625 | 3.94 |
73.875 | 4.00 |
74.125 | 4.06 |
74.375 | 4.13 |
74.625 | 4.19 |
74.875 | 4.25 |
75.125 | 4.31 |
75.375 | 4.37 |
75.625 | 4.43 |
75.875 | 4.49 |
76.125 | 4.55 |
76.375 | 4.61 |
76.625 | 4.67 |
76.875 | 4.73 |
77.125 | 4.79 |
77.375 | 4.85 |
77.625 | 4.91 |
77.875 | 4.97 |
78.125 | 5.04 |
78.375 | 5.10 |
78.625 | 5.16 |
78.875 | 5.22 |
79.125 | 5.28 |
79.375 | 5.34 |
79.625 | 5.41 |
79.875 | 5.47 |
80.125 | 5.53 |
80.375 | 5.60 |
80.625 | 5.66 |
80.875 | 5.73 |
81.125 | 5.79 |
81.375 | 5.86 |
81.625 | 5.93 |
81.875 | 6.00 |
82.125 | 6.07 |
82.375 | 6.14 |
82.625 | 6.21 |
82.875 | 6.28 |
83.125 | 6.35 |
83.375 | 6.43 |
83.625 | 6.50 |
83.875 | 6.58 |
84.125 | 6.66 |
84.375 | 6.74 |
84.625 | 6.82 |
84.875 | 6.90 |
85.125 | 6.98 |
85.375 | 7.06 |
85.625 | 7.15 |
85.875 | 7.24 |
86.125 | 7.32 |
86.375 | 7.41 |
86.625 | 7.51 |
86.875 | 7.60 |
87.125 | 7.69 |
87.375 | 7.79 |
87.625 | 7.89 |
87.875 | 7.99 |
88.125 | 8.09 |
88.375 | 8.19 |
88.625 | 8.30 |
88.875 | 8.41 |
89.125 | 8.52 |
89.375 | 8.63 |
89.625 | 8.74 |
89.875 | 8.86 |
90.125 | 8.97 |
90.375 | 9.09 |
90.625 | 9.21 |
90.875 | 9.34 |
91.125 | 9.46 |
91.375 | 9.59 |
91.625 | 9.72 |
91.875 | 9.85 |
92.125 | 9.99 |
92.375 | 10.13 |
92.625 | 10.27 |
92.875 | 10.41 |
93.125 | 10.55 |
93.375 | 10.70 |
93.625 | 10.85 |
93.875 | 11.00 |
94.125 | 11.15 |
94.375 | 11.31 |
94.625 | 11.47 |
94.875 | 11.63 |
95.125 | 11.80 |
95.375 | 11.97 |
95.625 | 12.14 |
95.875 | 12.31 |
96.125 | 12.49 |
96.375 | 12.66 |
96.625 | 12.85 |
96.875 | 13.03 |
97.125 | 13.22 |
97.375 | 13.41 |
97.625 | 13.60 |
97.875 | 13.80 |
98.125 | 14.00 |
98.375 | 14.20 |
98.625 | 14.41 |
98.875 | 14.62 |
99.125 | 14.83 |
99.375 | 15.05 |
99.625 | 15.27 |
99.875 | 15.49 |
100.125 | 15.71 |
100.375 | 15.94 |
100.625 | 16.17 |
100.875 | 16.41 |
101.125 | 16.65 |
101.375 | 16.89 |
101.625 | 17.13 |
101.875 | 17.38 |
102.125 | 17.62 |
102.375 | 17.87 |
102.625 | 18.12 |
102.875 | 18.38 |
103.125 | 18.63 |
103.375 | 18.89 |
103.625 | 19.14 |
103.875 | 19.40 |
104.125 | 19.66 |
104.375 | 19.92 |
104.625 | 20.18 |
104.875 | 20.44 |
105.125 | 20.71 |
105.375 | 20.97 |
105.625 | 21.23 |
105.875 | 21.49 |
106.125 | 21.75 |
106.375 | 22.01 |
106.625 | 22.27 |
106.875 | 22.53 |
107.125 | 22.79 |
107.375 | 23.05 |
107.625 | 23.31 |
107.875 | 23.56 |
108.125 | 23.82 |
108.375 | 24.07 |
108.625 | 24.32 |
108.875 | 24.57 |
109.125 | 24.81 |
109.375 | 25.06 |
109.625 | 25.30 |
109.875 | 25.54 |
110.125 | 25.77 |
110.375 | 26.01 |
110.625 | 26.24 |
110.875 | 26.46 |
111.125 | 26.69 |
111.375 | 26.91 |
111.625 | 27.12 |
111.875 | 27.34 |
112.125 | 27.54 |
112.375 | 27.75 |
112.625 | 27.95 |
112.875 | 28.15 |
113.125 | 28.34 |
113.375 | 28.52 |
113.625 | 28.70 |
113.875 | 28.88 |
114.125 | 29.05 |
114.375 | 29.22 |
114.625 | 29.38 |
114.875 | 29.53 |
115.125 | 29.68 |
115.375 | 29.82 |
115.625 | 29.96 |
115.875 | 30.09 |
116.125 | 30.22 |
116.375 | 30.33 |
116.625 | 30.44 |
116.875 | 30.55 |
117.125 | 30.64 |
117.375 | 30.73 |
117.625 | 30.82 |
117.875 | 30.89 |
118.125 | 30.96 |
118.375 | 31.02 |
118.625 | 31.07 |
118.875 | 31.11 |
119.125 | 31.15 |
119.375 | 31.17 |
119.625 | 31.19 |
119.875 | 31.20 |
Right panel: Total Projected Deaths (in persons)
Day | Mean | Lowest 2.5 percent | Highest 2.5 percent |
---|---|---|---|
2020-02-04 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-05 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-06 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-07 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-08 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-09 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-10 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-11 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-13 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-14 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-15 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-16 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-17 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-18 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-19 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-20 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-21 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-22 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-23 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
2020-02-24 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
2020-02-25 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
2020-02-26 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
2020-02-27 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
2020-02-28 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
2020-02-29 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
2020-03-01 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
2020-03-02 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
2020-03-03 | 27 | 27 | 27 |
2020-03-04 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
2020-03-05 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
2020-03-06 | 40 | 40 | 40 |
2020-03-07 | 41 | 41 | 41 |
2020-03-08 | 48 | 48 | 48 |
2020-03-09 | 52 | 52 | 52 |
2020-03-10 | 57 | 57 | 57 |
2020-03-11 | 62 | 62 | 62 |
2020-03-12 | 68 | 68 | 68 |
2020-03-13 | 72 | 72 | 72 |
2020-03-14 | 84 | 84 | 84 |
2020-03-15 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
2020-03-16 | 128 | 128 | 128 |
2020-03-17 | 157 | 157 | 157 |
2020-03-18 | 188 | 188 | 188 |
2020-03-19 | 269 | 269 | 269 |
2020-03-20 | 339 | 339 | 339 |
2020-03-21 | 422 | 422 | 422 |
2020-03-22 | 536 | 536 | 536 |
2020-03-23 | 661 | 661 | 661 |
2020-03-24 | 864 | 864 | 864 |
2020-03-25 | 1137 | 1137 | 1137 |
2020-03-26 | 1441 | 1441 | 1441 |
2020-03-27 | 1865 | 1865 | 1865 |
2020-03-28 | 2420 | 2420 | 2420 |
2020-03-29 | 2878 | 2878 | 2878 |
2020-03-30 | 3498 | 3498 | 3498 |
2020-03-31 | 4537 | 4537 | 4537 |
2020-04-01 | 5604 | 5604 | 5604 |
2020-04-02 | 6816 | 6816 | 6816 |
2020-04-03 | 8316 | 8316 | 8316 |
2020-04-04 | 9902 | 9902 | 9902 |
2020-04-05 | 11205 | 11205 | 11205 |
2020-04-06 | 12379 | 12379 | 12379 |
2020-04-07 | 14659 | 14659 | 14659 |
2020-04-08 | 16847 | 16847 | 16847 |
2020-04-09 | 18954 | 18954 | 18954 |
2020-04-10 | 21071 | 21071 | 21071 |
2020-04-11 | 23168 | 23168 | 23168 |
2020-04-12 | 24929 | 24929 | 24929 |
2020-04-13 | 26682 | 26682 | 26682 |
2020-04-14 | 29397 | 29397 | 29397 |
2020-04-15 | 32005 | 32005 | 32005 |
2020-04-16 | 34271 | 34271 | 34271 |
2020-04-17 | 36615 | 36615 | 36615 |
2020-04-18 | 38568 | 38568 | 38568 |
2020-04-19 | 40440 | 40440 | 40440 |
2020-04-20 | 42205 | 42205 | 42205 |
2020-04-21 | 44633 | 44633 | 44633 |
2020-04-22 | 47087 | 47087 | 47087 |
2020-04-23 | 49507 | 49507 | 49507 |
2020-04-24 | 51479 | 51479 | 51479 |
2020-04-25 | 53367 | 53367 | 53367 |
2020-04-26 | 54702 | 54702 | 54702 |
2020-04-27 | 56229 | 56229 | 56229 |
2020-04-28 | 58538 | 58538 | 58538 |
2020-04-29 | 61166 | 61166 | 61166 |
2020-04-30 | 63295 | 63295 | 63295 |
2020-05-01 | 65156 | 65156 | 65156 |
2020-05-02 | 66316 | 66316 | 66316 |
2020-05-03 | 67835 | 67835 | 67835 |
2020-05-04 | 69190 | 69190 | 69190 |
2020-05-05 | 71438 | 71438 | 71438 |
2020-05-06 | 73912 | 73912 | 73912 |
2020-05-07 | 75806 | 75806 | 75806 |
2020-05-08 | 77460 | 77460 | 77460 |
2020-05-09 | 78905 | 78905 | 78905 |
2020-05-10 | 79427 | 79427 | 79427 |
2020-05-11 | 80840 | 80840 | 80840 |
2020-05-12 | 82507 | 82507 | 82507 |
2020-05-13 | 84257 | 84257 | 84257 |
2020-05-14 | 86021 | 86021 | 86021 |
2020-05-15 | 87662 | 87662 | 87662 |
2020-05-16 | 88867 | 88867 | 88867 |
2020-05-17 | 89278 | 89278 | 89278 |
2020-05-18 | 90503 | 90503 | 90503 |
2020-05-19 | 92055 | 92055 | 92055 |
2020-05-20 | 93555 | 93555 | 93555 |
2020-05-21 | 94837 | 94837 | 94837 |
2020-05-22 | 96101 | 96101 | 96101 |
2020-05-23 | 97219 | 97219 | 97219 |
2020-05-24 | 97372 | 97372 | 97372 |
2020-05-25 | 97873 | 97873 | 97873 |
2020-05-26 | 99066 | 99066 | 99066 |
2020-05-27 | 100543 | 100543 | 100543 |
2020-05-28 | 101734 | 101734 | 101734 |
2020-05-29 | 102938 | 102938 | 102938 |
2020-05-30 | 103880 | 103880 | 103880 |
2020-05-31 | 104408 | 104408 | 104408 |
2020-06-01 | 105152 | 105152 | 105152 |
2020-06-02 | 106171 | 106171 | 106171 |
2020-06-03 | 107150 | 107150 | 107150 |
2020-06-04 | 108205 | 108205 | 108205 |
2020-06-05 | 109347 | 109347 | 109347 |
2020-06-06 | 109874 | 109874 | 109874 |
2020-06-07 | 110094 | 110094 | 110094 |
2020-06-08 | 110773 | 110773 | 110773 |
2020-06-09 | 111740 | 111740 | 111740 |
2020-06-10 | 112671 | 112671 | 112671 |
2020-06-11 | 113551 | 113551 | 113551 |
2020-06-12 | 114392 | 114392 | 114392 |
2020-06-13 | 114203 | 114197 | 114210 |
2020-06-14 | 114948 | 114918 | 114979 |
2020-06-15 | 115689 | 115630 | 115753 |
2020-06-16 | 116429 | 116339 | 116524 |
2020-06-17 | 117167 | 117048 | 117298 |
2020-06-18 | 117905 | 117751 | 118074 |
2020-06-19 | 118644 | 118451 | 118854 |
2020-06-20 | 119383 | 119151 | 119640 |
2020-06-21 | 120124 | 119842 | 120432 |
2020-06-22 | 120864 | 120545 | 121224 |
2020-06-23 | 121602 | 121237 | 122006 |
2020-06-24 | 122338 | 121917 | 122802 |
2020-06-25 | 123070 | 122590 | 123608 |
2020-06-26 | 123798 | 123266 | 124403 |
2020-06-27 | 124523 | 123933 | 125201 |
2020-06-28 | 125244 | 124584 | 125997 |
2020-06-29 | 125961 | 125244 | 126810 |
2020-06-30 | 126675 | 125885 | 127621 |
2020-07-01 | 127384 | 126510 | 128432 |
2020-07-02 | 128089 | 127124 | 129258 |
2020-07-03 | 128790 | 127734 | 130101 |
2020-07-04 | 129485 | 128339 | 130923 |
2020-07-05 | 130175 | 128934 | 131775 |
2020-07-06 | 130861 | 129525 | 132639 |
2020-07-07 | 131542 | 130119 | 133479 |
2020-07-08 | 132217 | 130700 | 134330 |
2020-07-09 | 132888 | 131263 | 135177 |
2020-07-10 | 133554 | 131820 | 136024 |
2020-07-11 | 134216 | 132372 | 136872 |
2020-07-12 | 134875 | 132922 | 137722 |
2020-07-13 | 135531 | 133461 | 138584 |
2020-07-14 | 136184 | 133999 | 139467 |
2020-07-15 | 136834 | 134518 | 140326 |
2020-07-16 | 137482 | 135018 | 141204 |
2020-07-17 | 138128 | 135517 | 142086 |
2020-07-18 | 138772 | 136016 | 142974 |
2020-07-19 | 139415 | 136525 | 143884 |
2020-07-20 | 140056 | 137031 | 144873 |
2020-07-21 | 140696 | 137512 | 145878 |
2020-07-22 | 141335 | 137986 | 146823 |
2020-07-23 | 141974 | 138469 | 147748 |
2020-07-24 | 142613 | 138950 | 148676 |
2020-07-25 | 143252 | 139422 | 149606 |
2020-07-26 | 143891 | 139893 | 150541 |
2020-07-27 | 144530 | 140370 | 151480 |
2020-07-28 | 145171 | 140857 | 152426 |
2020-07-29 | 145812 | 141350 | 153423 |
2020-07-30 | 146455 | 141825 | 154481 |
2020-07-31 | 147099 | 142285 | 155533 |
2020-08-01 | 147744 | 142724 | 156490 |
2020-08-02 | 148391 | 143160 | 157530 |
2020-08-03 | 149039 | 143593 | 158756 |
2020-08-04 | 149690 | 144037 | 159903 |
2020-08-05 | 150343 | 144451 | 160985 |
2020-08-06 | 150997 | 144900 | 162115 |
2020-08-07 | 151654 | 145348 | 163369 |
2020-08-08 | 152313 | 145771 | 164530 |
2020-08-09 | 152974 | 146202 | 165909 |
2020-08-10 | 153638 | 146637 | 167311 |
2020-08-11 | 154304 | 147070 | 168698 |
2020-08-12 | 154973 | 147502 | 169921 |
2020-08-13 | 155644 | 147933 | 171148 |
2020-08-14 | 156318 | 148356 | 172363 |
2020-08-15 | 156995 | 148758 | 173748 |
2020-08-16 | 157674 | 149158 | 175075 |
2020-08-17 | 158357 | 149557 | 176392 |
2020-08-18 | 159042 | 149954 | 177721 |
2020-08-19 | 159729 | 150353 | 179064 |
2020-08-20 | 160420 | 150804 | 180420 |
2020-08-21 | 161113 | 151256 | 181788 |
2020-08-22 | 161808 | 151709 | 183165 |
2020-08-23 | 162507 | 152163 | 184551 |
2020-08-24 | 163207 | 152580 | 185817 |
2020-08-25 | 163911 | 152997 | 187038 |
2020-08-26 | 164617 | 153412 | 188502 |
2020-08-27 | 165326 | 153827 | 189997 |
2020-08-28 | 166037 | 154242 | 191641 |
2020-08-29 | 166751 | 154655 | 193089 |
2020-08-30 | 167467 | 155068 | 194543 |
2020-08-31 | 168193 | 155480 | 196001 |
2020-09-01 | 168936 | 155892 | 197463 |
2020-09-02 | 169700 | 156329 | 198929 |
2020-09-03 | 170488 | 156776 | 200404 |
2020-09-04 | 171302 | 157231 | 201986 |
2020-09-05 | 172138 | 157689 | 203366 |
2020-09-06 | 172990 | 158153 | 205416 |
2020-09-07 | 173857 | 158622 | 207190 |
2020-09-08 | 174743 | 159086 | 208987 |
2020-09-09 | 175647 | 159530 | 210823 |
2020-09-10 | 176570 | 160012 | 212584 |
2020-09-11 | 177513 | 160550 | 214384 |
2020-09-12 | 178476 | 161071 | 216269 |
2020-09-13 | 179459 | 161579 | 218582 |
2020-09-14 | 180463 | 162097 | 220719 |
2020-09-15 | 181488 | 162622 | 222994 |
2020-09-16 | 182535 | 163154 | 225077 |
2020-09-17 | 183604 | 163693 | 227522 |
2020-09-18 | 184696 | 164202 | 230206 |
2020-09-19 | 185811 | 164688 | 233031 |
2020-09-20 | 186949 | 165211 | 235923 |
2020-09-21 | 188111 | 165767 | 239078 |
2020-09-22 | 189297 | 166293 | 241926 |
2020-09-23 | 190508 | 166853 | 244794 |
2020-09-24 | 191744 | 167472 | 247710 |
2020-09-25 | 193006 | 168054 | 250876 |
2020-09-26 | 194293 | 168631 | 253996 |
2020-09-27 | 195606 | 169169 | 256668 |
2020-09-28 | 196946 | 169746 | 259904 |
2020-09-29 | 198313 | 170329 | 262971 |
2020-09-30 | 199707 | 170928 | 266167 |
2020-10-01 | 201129 | 171551 | 269395 |
Figure 2: Estimated mortality from the Great Influenza
Source: Authors' calculations using data from the annual publication "Mortality Statistics" of the U.S. Bureau of the Census for the years 1913 to 1920.
Notes: The mortality rates and excess
mortality rates encompass all death categorized under "influenza" and related pulmonary causes. See Appendix A for details.
Middle of age bin (in years) | Left panel: Mortality Rate (in percent), 1920 | Left panel: Mortality Rate (in percent), 1919 | Left panel: Mortality Rate (in percent), 1918 | Left panel: Mortality Rate (in percent), 1913-1917 (mean) | Right panel: Excess mortality Rate (in percentage points), 1918 to 1920 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5 | 1.46 | 1.49 | 2.13 | 1.46 | 0.71 |
1.5 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 1.34 | 0.54 | 0.93 |
2.5 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.71 | 0.20 | 0.62 |
3.5 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.44 | 0.10 | 0.46 |
4.5 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.33 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
7.5 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
12.5 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.21 |
17.5 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.37 | 0.02 | 0.49 |
22.5 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 0.62 | 0.03 | 0.81 |
27.5 | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0.92 | 0.04 | 1.21 |
32.5 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.94 | 0.05 | 1.24 |
37.5 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 0.07 | 0.85 |
42.5 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.46 | 0.09 | 0.52 |
47.5 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.38 | 0.11 | 0.38 |
52.5 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.35 | 0.14 | 0.28 |
57.5 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.38 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
62.5 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.43 | 0.28 | 0.16 |
67.5 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.58 | 0.44 | 0.11 |
72.5 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.82 | 0.73 | -0.09 |
77.5 | 0.88 | 0.71 | 0.96 | 1.02 | -0.51 |
82.5 | 1.02 | 0.80 | 1.05 | 1.25 | -0.89 |
87.5 | 1.03 | 0.84 | 1.02 | 1.31 | -1.04 |
92.5 | 0.91 | 0.75 | 0.98 | 1.40 | -1.55 |
97.5 | 1.09 | 0.95 | 1.19 | 1.85 | -2.31 |
102.5 | 2.84 | 2.62 | 4.47 | 4.61 | -3.89 |
Figure 3: Effect on pandemic mortality on population and aggregate employment
Source: Authors' calculations.
Notes: The simulations are conducted under the assumption that all fatalities occur in
2020:Q2. The attack rate is calibrated to yield 200,000 total deaths in the "COVID-19 (baseline)" simulation and set to 70 percent of the population in the "COVID-19 (herd immunity)" simulation. The "Great Influenza" simulation is calibrated to our estimates of excess mortality rates during the
1918-1920 flu pandemic.
Period | Total population (percent deviation), COVID-baseline | Total population (percent deviation), COVID-Herd | Total population (percent deviation), Great Influenza | Total employment (percent deviation), COVID-baseline | Total employment (percent deviation), COVID-Herd | Total employment (percent deviation), Great Influenza |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2010.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2010.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2010.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2010.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2011.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2011.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2011.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2011.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2012.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2012.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2012.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2012.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2013.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2013.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2013.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2013.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2014.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2014.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2014.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2014.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2015.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2015.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2015.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2015.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2016.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2016.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2016.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2016.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2017.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2017.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2017.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2017.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2018.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2018.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2018.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2018.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2019.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2019.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2019.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2019.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020.375 | -0.0592 | -0.7554 | -0.3896 | -0.0291 | -0.3709 | -0.6066 |
2020.625 | -0.0584 | -0.7449 | -0.3937 | -0.0285 | -0.3637 | -0.6088 |
2020.875 | -0.0576 | -0.7345 | -0.3978 | -0.0280 | -0.3566 | -0.6109 |
2021.125 | -0.0568 | -0.7243 | -0.4018 | -0.0274 | -0.3496 | -0.6130 |
2021.375 | -0.0560 | -0.7141 | -0.4057 | -0.0269 | -0.3426 | -0.6149 |
2021.625 | -0.0552 | -0.7042 | -0.4095 | -0.0263 | -0.3358 | -0.6167 |
2021.875 | -0.0544 | -0.6943 | -0.4133 | -0.0258 | -0.3291 | -0.6184 |
2022.125 | -0.0537 | -0.6846 | -0.4170 | -0.0253 | -0.3224 | -0.6201 |
2022.375 | -0.0529 | -0.6750 | -0.4207 | -0.0248 | -0.3159 | -0.6216 |
2022.625 | -0.0522 | -0.6655 | -0.4242 | -0.0243 | -0.3094 | -0.6230 |
2022.875 | -0.0514 | -0.6562 | -0.4278 | -0.0238 | -0.3031 | -0.6243 |
2023.125 | -0.0507 | -0.6469 | -0.4312 | -0.0233 | -0.2968 | -0.6256 |
2023.375 | -0.0500 | -0.6378 | -0.4346 | -0.0228 | -0.2906 | -0.6267 |
2023.625 | -0.0493 | -0.6288 | -0.4379 | -0.0223 | -0.2845 | -0.6278 |
2023.875 | -0.0486 | -0.6199 | -0.4411 | -0.0218 | -0.2785 | -0.6287 |
2024.125 | -0.0479 | -0.6112 | -0.4443 | -0.0214 | -0.2725 | -0.6296 |
2024.375 | -0.0472 | -0.6025 | -0.4474 | -0.0209 | -0.2667 | -0.6303 |
2024.625 | -0.0466 | -0.5939 | -0.4505 | -0.0205 | -0.2609 | -0.6310 |
2024.875 | -0.0459 | -0.5855 | -0.4534 | -0.0200 | -0.2552 | -0.6316 |
2025.125 | -0.0452 | -0.5772 | -0.4563 | -0.0196 | -0.2496 | -0.6321 |
2025.375 | -0.0446 | -0.5689 | -0.4591 | -0.0191 | -0.2441 | -0.6324 |
2025.625 | -0.0440 | -0.5608 | -0.4619 | -0.0187 | -0.2386 | -0.6328 |
2025.875 | -0.0433 | -0.5528 | -0.4646 | -0.0183 | -0.2332 | -0.6330 |
2026.125 | -0.0427 | -0.5449 | -0.4672 | -0.0179 | -0.2280 | -0.6331 |
2026.375 | -0.0421 | -0.5370 | -0.4697 | -0.0175 | -0.2228 | -0.6332 |
2026.625 | -0.0415 | -0.5293 | -0.4722 | -0.0171 | -0.2177 | -0.6332 |
2026.875 | -0.0409 | -0.5217 | -0.4746 | -0.0167 | -0.2126 | -0.6332 |
2027.125 | -0.0403 | -0.5141 | -0.4769 | -0.0163 | -0.2077 | -0.6331 |
2027.375 | -0.0397 | -0.5067 | -0.4792 | -0.0159 | -0.2029 | -0.6329 |
2027.625 | -0.0391 | -0.4993 | -0.4814 | -0.0155 | -0.1981 | -0.6326 |
2027.875 | -0.0386 | -0.4920 | -0.4835 | -0.0152 | -0.1934 | -0.6323 |
2028.125 | -0.0380 | -0.4849 | -0.4856 | -0.0148 | -0.1888 | -0.6320 |
2028.375 | -0.0375 | -0.4778 | -0.4876 | -0.0145 | -0.1843 | -0.6316 |
2028.625 | -0.0369 | -0.4707 | -0.4895 | -0.0141 | -0.1799 | -0.6311 |
2028.875 | -0.0364 | -0.4638 | -0.4914 | -0.0138 | -0.1756 | -0.6306 |
2029.125 | -0.0358 | -0.4570 | -0.4932 | -0.0134 | -0.1713 | -0.6301 |
2029.375 | -0.0353 | -0.4502 | -0.4949 | -0.0131 | -0.1672 | -0.6295 |
2029.625 | -0.0348 | -0.4435 | -0.4966 | -0.0128 | -0.1631 | -0.6289 |
2029.875 | -0.0343 | -0.4369 | -0.4982 | -0.0125 | -0.1591 | -0.6283 |
2030.125 | -0.0337 | -0.4304 | -0.4998 | -0.0122 | -0.1552 | -0.6276 |
2030.375 | -0.0332 | -0.4239 | -0.5013 | -0.0119 | -0.1513 | -0.6269 |
2030.625 | -0.0327 | -0.4175 | -0.5027 | -0.0116 | -0.1476 | -0.6261 |
2030.875 | -0.0322 | -0.4112 | -0.5041 | -0.0113 | -0.1439 | -0.6254 |
2031.125 | -0.0317 | -0.4050 | -0.5054 | -0.0110 | -0.1403 | -0.6246 |
2031.375 | -0.0313 | -0.3988 | -0.5066 | -0.0107 | -0.1368 | -0.6238 |
2031.625 | -0.0308 | -0.3927 | -0.5079 | -0.0105 | -0.1334 | -0.6229 |
2031.875 | -0.0303 | -0.3866 | -0.5090 | -0.0102 | -0.1300 | -0.6221 |
2032.125 | -0.0298 | -0.3807 | -0.5101 | -0.0099 | -0.1267 | -0.6212 |
2032.375 | -0.0294 | -0.3748 | -0.5112 | -0.0097 | -0.1235 | -0.6203 |
2032.625 | -0.0289 | -0.3689 | -0.5122 | -0.0094 | -0.1203 | -0.6194 |
2032.875 | -0.0285 | -0.3632 | -0.5131 | -0.0092 | -0.1173 | -0.6185 |
2033.125 | -0.0280 | -0.3574 | -0.5140 | -0.0090 | -0.1143 | -0.6175 |
2033.375 | -0.0276 | -0.3518 | -0.5149 | -0.0087 | -0.1113 | -0.6166 |
2033.625 | -0.0271 | -0.3462 | -0.5157 | -0.0085 | -0.1085 | -0.6157 |
2033.875 | -0.0267 | -0.3407 | -0.5164 | -0.0083 | -0.1057 | -0.6148 |
2034.125 | -0.0263 | -0.3352 | -0.5172 | -0.0081 | -0.1030 | -0.6139 |
2034.375 | -0.0259 | -0.3298 | -0.5178 | -0.0079 | -0.1003 | -0.6131 |
2034.625 | -0.0254 | -0.3245 | -0.5185 | -0.0077 | -0.0977 | -0.6123 |
2034.875 | -0.0250 | -0.3192 | -0.5191 | -0.0075 | -0.0952 | -0.6115 |
2035.125 | -0.0246 | -0.3140 | -0.5197 | -0.0073 | -0.0927 | -0.6108 |
2035.375 | -0.0242 | -0.3088 | -0.5202 | -0.0071 | -0.0903 | -0.6101 |
2035.625 | -0.0238 | -0.3037 | -0.5207 | -0.0069 | -0.0879 | -0.6094 |
2035.875 | -0.0234 | -0.2986 | -0.5212 | -0.0067 | -0.0856 | -0.6088 |
2036.125 | -0.0230 | -0.2936 | -0.5216 | -0.0065 | -0.0834 | -0.6084 |
2036.375 | -0.0226 | -0.2887 | -0.5220 | -0.0064 | -0.0812 | -0.6081 |
2036.625 | -0.0222 | -0.2838 | -0.5224 | -0.0062 | -0.0791 | -0.6080 |
2036.875 | -0.0219 | -0.2789 | -0.5228 | -0.0060 | -0.0770 | -0.6080 |
2037.125 | -0.0215 | -0.2741 | -0.5231 | -0.0059 | -0.0750 | -0.6082 |
2037.375 | -0.0211 | -0.2694 | -0.5234 | -0.0057 | -0.0730 | -0.6083 |
2037.625 | -0.0208 | -0.2647 | -0.5237 | -0.0056 | -0.0711 | -0.6084 |
2037.875 | -0.0204 | -0.2601 | -0.5240 | -0.0054 | -0.0692 | -0.6084 |
2038.125 | -0.0200 | -0.2555 | -0.5243 | -0.0053 | -0.0674 | -0.6083 |
2038.375 | -0.0197 | -0.2510 | -0.5245 | -0.0051 | -0.0656 | -0.6087 |
2038.625 | -0.0193 | -0.2466 | -0.5248 | -0.0050 | -0.0640 | -0.6092 |
2038.875 | -0.0190 | -0.2421 | -0.5250 | -0.0049 | -0.0623 | -0.6097 |
2039.125 | -0.0186 | -0.2378 | -0.5252 | -0.0048 | -0.0608 | -0.6102 |
2039.375 | -0.0183 | -0.2335 | -0.5254 | -0.0046 | -0.0592 | -0.6108 |
2039.625 | -0.0180 | -0.2292 | -0.5256 | -0.0045 | -0.0577 | -0.6115 |
2039.875 | -0.0176 | -0.2250 | -0.5258 | -0.0044 | -0.0563 | -0.6121 |
2040.125 | -0.0173 | -0.2209 | -0.5260 | -0.0043 | -0.0549 | -0.6128 |
2040.375 | -0.0170 | -0.2167 | -0.5262 | -0.0042 | -0.0535 | -0.6135 |
2040.625 | -0.0167 | -0.2127 | -0.5263 | -0.0041 | -0.0522 | -0.6142 |
2040.875 | -0.0164 | -0.2087 | -0.5265 | -0.0040 | -0.0510 | -0.6149 |
2041.125 | -0.0161 | -0.2047 | -0.5267 | -0.0039 | -0.0497 | -0.6156 |
2041.375 | -0.0157 | -0.2009 | -0.5269 | -0.0038 | -0.0485 | -0.6163 |
2041.625 | -0.0154 | -0.1970 | -0.5270 | -0.0037 | -0.0474 | -0.6170 |
2041.875 | -0.0151 | -0.1932 | -0.5272 | -0.0036 | -0.0463 | -0.6176 |
2042.125 | -0.0149 | -0.1895 | -0.5274 | -0.0035 | -0.0452 | -0.6182 |
2042.375 | -0.0146 | -0.1858 | -0.5275 | -0.0035 | -0.0441 | -0.6188 |
2042.625 | -0.0143 | -0.1821 | -0.5277 | -0.0034 | -0.0431 | -0.6194 |
2042.875 | -0.0140 | -0.1785 | -0.5279 | -0.0033 | -0.0421 | -0.6199 |
2043.125 | -0.0137 | -0.1750 | -0.5281 | -0.0032 | -0.0411 | -0.6204 |
2043.375 | -0.0134 | -0.1715 | -0.5282 | -0.0032 | -0.0402 | -0.6208 |
2043.625 | -0.0132 | -0.1680 | -0.5284 | -0.0031 | -0.0393 | -0.6211 |
2043.875 | -0.0129 | -0.1646 | -0.5286 | -0.0030 | -0.0384 | -0.6214 |
2044.125 | -0.0126 | -0.1613 | -0.5288 | -0.0029 | -0.0375 | -0.6216 |
2044.375 | -0.0124 | -0.1580 | -0.5290 | -0.0029 | -0.0367 | -0.6218 |
2044.625 | -0.0121 | -0.1548 | -0.5292 | -0.0028 | -0.0359 | -0.6219 |
2044.875 | -0.0119 | -0.1516 | -0.5294 | -0.0028 | -0.0351 | -0.6219 |
2045.125 | -0.0116 | -0.1484 | -0.5296 | -0.0027 | -0.0344 | -0.6218 |
2045.375 | -0.0114 | -0.1453 | -0.5298 | -0.0026 | -0.0336 | -0.6216 |
2045.625 | -0.0112 | -0.1423 | -0.5300 | -0.0026 | -0.0329 | -0.6214 |
2045.875 | -0.0109 | -0.1393 | -0.5302 | -0.0025 | -0.0322 | -0.6210 |
2046.125 | -0.0107 | -0.1363 | -0.5305 | -0.0025 | -0.0315 | -0.6206 |
2046.375 | -0.0105 | -0.1334 | -0.5307 | -0.0024 | -0.0309 | -0.6201 |
2046.625 | -0.0102 | -0.1305 | -0.5309 | -0.0024 | -0.0302 | -0.6195 |
2046.875 | -0.0100 | -0.1277 | -0.5312 | -0.0023 | -0.0296 | -0.6188 |
2047.125 | -0.0098 | -0.1250 | -0.5314 | -0.0023 | -0.0290 | -0.6180 |
2047.375 | -0.0096 | -0.1223 | -0.5316 | -0.0022 | -0.0284 | -0.6171 |
2047.625 | -0.0094 | -0.1196 | -0.5319 | -0.0022 | -0.0278 | -0.6162 |
2047.875 | -0.0092 | -0.1170 | -0.5321 | -0.0021 | -0.0272 | -0.6151 |
2048.125 | -0.0090 | -0.1144 | -0.5324 | -0.0021 | -0.0267 | -0.6139 |
2048.375 | -0.0088 | -0.1119 | -0.5326 | -0.0021 | -0.0262 | -0.6127 |
2048.625 | -0.0086 | -0.1094 | -0.5329 | -0.0020 | -0.0256 | -0.6113 |
2048.875 | -0.0084 | -0.1069 | -0.5331 | -0.0020 | -0.0251 | -0.6099 |
2049.125 | -0.0082 | -0.1045 | -0.5334 | -0.0019 | -0.0246 | -0.6083 |
2049.375 | -0.0080 | -0.1022 | -0.5336 | -0.0019 | -0.0241 | -0.6067 |
2049.625 | -0.0078 | -0.0999 | -0.5339 | -0.0019 | -0.0237 | -0.6050 |
2049.875 | -0.0077 | -0.0976 | -0.5341 | -0.0018 | -0.0232 | -0.6032 |
2050.125 | -0.0075 | -0.0954 | -0.5344 | -0.0018 | -0.0228 | -0.6013 |
2050.375 | -0.0073 | -0.0932 | -0.5346 | -0.0018 | -0.0223 | -0.5993 |
2050.625 | -0.0071 | -0.0911 | -0.5349 | -0.0017 | -0.0219 | -0.5973 |
2050.875 | -0.0070 | -0.0890 | -0.5351 | -0.0017 | -0.0215 | -0.5951 |
2051.125 | -0.0068 | -0.0870 | -0.5353 | -0.0017 | -0.0211 | -0.5929 |
2051.375 | -0.0067 | -0.0850 | -0.5356 | -0.0016 | -0.0207 | -0.5906 |
2051.625 | -0.0065 | -0.0830 | -0.5358 | -0.0016 | -0.0203 | -0.5883 |
2051.875 | -0.0064 | -0.0811 | -0.5360 | -0.0016 | -0.0199 | -0.5858 |
2052.125 | -0.0062 | -0.0792 | -0.5362 | -0.0015 | -0.0196 | -0.5833 |
2052.375 | -0.0061 | -0.0774 | -0.5364 | -0.0015 | -0.0192 | -0.5807 |
2052.625 | -0.0059 | -0.0756 | -0.5366 | -0.0015 | -0.0189 | -0.5781 |
2052.875 | -0.0058 | -0.0738 | -0.5368 | -0.0015 | -0.0185 | -0.5754 |
2053.125 | -0.0057 | -0.0721 | -0.5370 | -0.0014 | -0.0182 | -0.5727 |
2053.375 | -0.0055 | -0.0704 | -0.5371 | -0.0014 | -0.0179 | -0.5699 |
2053.625 | -0.0054 | -0.0688 | -0.5373 | -0.0014 | -0.0176 | -0.5670 |
2053.875 | -0.0053 | -0.0671 | -0.5374 | -0.0014 | -0.0173 | -0.5642 |
2054.125 | -0.0051 | -0.0656 | -0.5375 | -0.0013 | -0.0170 | -0.5612 |
2054.375 | -0.0050 | -0.0640 | -0.5377 | -0.0013 | -0.0167 | -0.5583 |
2054.625 | -0.0049 | -0.0625 | -0.5377 | -0.0013 | -0.0164 | -0.5553 |
2054.875 | -0.0048 | -0.0611 | -0.5378 | -0.0013 | -0.0161 | -0.5523 |
2055.125 | -0.0047 | -0.0596 | -0.5379 | -0.0012 | -0.0158 | -0.5492 |
2055.375 | -0.0046 | -0.0582 | -0.5379 | -0.0012 | -0.0156 | -0.5461 |
2055.625 | -0.0045 | -0.0569 | -0.5379 | -0.0012 | -0.0153 | -0.5431 |
2055.875 | -0.0044 | -0.0555 | -0.5380 | -0.0012 | -0.0151 | -0.5400 |
2056.125 | -0.0043 | -0.0542 | -0.5379 | -0.0012 | -0.0148 | -0.5369 |
2056.375 | -0.0042 | -0.0530 | -0.5379 | -0.0011 | -0.0146 | -0.5338 |
2056.625 | -0.0041 | -0.0517 | -0.5378 | -0.0011 | -0.0143 | -0.5307 |
2056.875 | -0.0040 | -0.0505 | -0.5378 | -0.0011 | -0.0141 | -0.5276 |
2057.125 | -0.0039 | -0.0494 | -0.5377 | -0.0011 | -0.0139 | -0.5245 |
2057.375 | -0.0038 | -0.0482 | -0.5376 | -0.0011 | -0.0137 | -0.5214 |
2057.625 | -0.0037 | -0.0471 | -0.5374 | -0.0011 | -0.0135 | -0.5184 |
2057.875 | -0.0036 | -0.0460 | -0.5372 | -0.0010 | -0.0133 | -0.5153 |
2058.125 | -0.0035 | -0.0449 | -0.5371 | -0.0010 | -0.0131 | -0.5123 |
2058.375 | -0.0034 | -0.0439 | -0.5368 | -0.0010 | -0.0129 | -0.5093 |
2058.625 | -0.0034 | -0.0429 | -0.5366 | -0.0010 | -0.0127 | -0.5064 |
2058.875 | -0.0033 | -0.0419 | -0.5363 | -0.0010 | -0.0125 | -0.5035 |
2059.125 | -0.0032 | -0.0410 | -0.5361 | -0.0010 | -0.0123 | -0.5006 |
2059.375 | -0.0031 | -0.0400 | -0.5358 | -0.0010 | -0.0121 | -0.4977 |
2059.625 | -0.0031 | -0.0391 | -0.5354 | -0.0009 | -0.0120 | -0.4949 |
2059.875 | -0.0030 | -0.0382 | -0.5351 | -0.0009 | -0.0118 | -0.4922 |
Figure 4: Macroeconomic implications of pandemic mortality
Source: Authors' calculations.
Notes: The simulations are conducted under the assumption that all fatalities occur in 2020:Q2. The attack
rate is calibrated to 200,000 total deaths in the "COVID-19 (baseline)" simulation and set to 70 percent of the population in "COVID-19 (herd immunity)." The "Great Influenza" simulation is calibrated to our estimates of excess mortality rates during the 1918-1920 flu pandemic.
Period | Capital-labor ratio (percent deviation) | Capital-labor ratio (percent deviation) | Capital-labor ratio (percent deviation) | Real output (percent deviation) | Real output (percent deviation) | Real output (percent deviation) | Real wages (percent deviation) | Real wages (percent deviation) | Real wages (percent deviation) | Short-term interest rate (annualized, basis point deviation) | Short-term interest rate (annualized, basis point deviation) | Short-term interest rate (annualized, basis point deviation) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
COVID-baseline | COVID-Herd | Great Influenza | COVID-baseline | COVID-Herd | Great Influenza | COVID-baseline | COVID-Herd | Great Influenza | COVID-baseline | COVID-Herd | Great Influenza | |
2009.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2010.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2010.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2010.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2010.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2011.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2011.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2011.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2011.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2012.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2012.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2012.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2012.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2013.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2013.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2013.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2013.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2014.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2014.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2014.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2014.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2015.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2015.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2015.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2015.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2016.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2016.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2016.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2016.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2017.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2017.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2017.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2017.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2018.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2018.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2018.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2018.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2019.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2019.375 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2019.625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2019.875 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020.375 | 0.0291 | 0.3723 | 0.6103 | -0.0189 | -0.2412 | -0.3947 | 0.0102 | 0.1301 | 0.2132 | -0.0017 | -0.0222 | -0.0364 |
2020.625 | 0.0287 | 0.3668 | 0.6012 | -0.0185 | -0.2359 | -0.4001 | 0.0100 | 0.1282 | 0.2100 | -0.0017 | -0.0219 | -0.0358 |
2020.875 | 0.0282 | 0.3615 | 0.5923 | -0.0181 | -0.2307 | -0.4053 | 0.0099 | 0.1264 | 0.2069 | -0.0017 | -0.0216 | -0.0353 |
2021.125 | 0.0278 | 0.3562 | 0.5834 | -0.0177 | -0.2255 | -0.4104 | 0.0097 | 0.1245 | 0.2038 | -0.0017 | -0.0213 | -0.0348 |
2021.375 | 0.0274 | 0.3511 | 0.5745 | -0.0173 | -0.2203 | -0.4154 | 0.0096 | 0.1228 | 0.2007 | -0.0016 | -0.0210 | -0.0342 |
2021.625 | 0.0270 | 0.3462 | 0.5658 | -0.0169 | -0.2152 | -0.4203 | 0.0095 | 0.1210 | 0.1977 | -0.0016 | -0.0206 | -0.0337 |
2021.875 | 0.0266 | 0.3413 | 0.5570 | -0.0165 | -0.2101 | -0.4250 | 0.0093 | 0.1193 | 0.1946 | -0.0016 | -0.0203 | -0.0332 |
2022.125 | 0.0263 | 0.3366 | 0.5484 | -0.0161 | -0.2051 | -0.4297 | 0.0092 | 0.1177 | 0.1916 | -0.0016 | -0.0201 | -0.0326 |
2022.375 | 0.0259 | 0.3319 | 0.5398 | -0.0157 | -0.2002 | -0.4342 | 0.0091 | 0.1161 | 0.1886 | -0.0015 | -0.0198 | -0.0321 |
2022.625 | 0.0255 | 0.3274 | 0.5312 | -0.0153 | -0.1953 | -0.4386 | 0.0089 | 0.1145 | 0.1856 | -0.0015 | -0.0195 | -0.0316 |
2022.875 | 0.0252 | 0.3230 | 0.5227 | -0.0149 | -0.1905 | -0.4428 | 0.0088 | 0.1129 | 0.1826 | -0.0015 | -0.0192 | -0.0311 |
2023.125 | 0.0249 | 0.3187 | 0.5143 | -0.0146 | -0.1857 | -0.4470 | 0.0087 | 0.1114 | 0.1797 | -0.0015 | -0.0190 | -0.0305 |
2023.375 | 0.0245 | 0.3145 | 0.5058 | -0.0142 | -0.1810 | -0.4511 | 0.0086 | 0.1100 | 0.1768 | -0.0015 | -0.0187 | -0.0300 |
2023.625 | 0.0242 | 0.3104 | 0.4975 | -0.0138 | -0.1763 | -0.4550 | 0.0085 | 0.1085 | 0.1738 | -0.0014 | -0.0184 | -0.0295 |
2023.875 | 0.0239 | 0.3064 | 0.4892 | -0.0135 | -0.1716 | -0.4588 | 0.0084 | 0.1071 | 0.1709 | -0.0014 | -0.0182 | -0.0290 |
2024.125 | 0.0236 | 0.3024 | 0.4809 | -0.0131 | -0.1671 | -0.4626 | 0.0082 | 0.1057 | 0.1680 | -0.0014 | -0.0180 | -0.0285 |
2024.375 | 0.0233 | 0.2986 | 0.4726 | -0.0128 | -0.1625 | -0.4662 | 0.0081 | 0.1044 | 0.1652 | -0.0014 | -0.0177 | -0.0280 |
2024.625 | 0.0230 | 0.2949 | 0.4644 | -0.0124 | -0.1581 | -0.4697 | 0.0080 | 0.1031 | 0.1623 | -0.0014 | -0.0175 | -0.0275 |
2024.875 | 0.0227 | 0.2912 | 0.4562 | -0.0121 | -0.1536 | -0.4731 | 0.0079 | 0.1018 | 0.1594 | -0.0013 | -0.0173 | -0.0270 |
2025.125 | 0.0224 | 0.2876 | 0.4480 | -0.0117 | -0.1493 | -0.4765 | 0.0078 | 0.1006 | 0.1566 | -0.0013 | -0.0171 | -0.0265 |
2025.375 | 0.0221 | 0.2841 | 0.4399 | -0.0114 | -0.1449 | -0.4797 | 0.0077 | 0.0994 | 0.1538 | -0.0013 | -0.0168 | -0.0260 |
2025.625 | 0.0219 | 0.2807 | 0.4318 | -0.0111 | -0.1407 | -0.4828 | 0.0077 | 0.0982 | 0.1509 | -0.0013 | -0.0166 | -0.0255 |
2025.875 | 0.0216 | 0.2774 | 0.4238 | -0.0107 | -0.1365 | -0.4858 | 0.0076 | 0.0970 | 0.1481 | -0.0013 | -0.0164 | -0.0251 |
2026.125 | 0.0213 | 0.2742 | 0.4157 | -0.0104 | -0.1323 | -0.4888 | 0.0075 | 0.0959 | 0.1453 | -0.0013 | -0.0162 | -0.0246 |
2026.375 | 0.0211 | 0.2710 | 0.4077 | -0.0101 | -0.1282 | -0.4916 | 0.0074 | 0.0948 | 0.1425 | -0.0013 | -0.0160 | -0.0241 |
2026.625 | 0.0209 | 0.2680 | 0.3998 | -0.0098 | -0.1242 | -0.4944 | 0.0073 | 0.0937 | 0.1397 | -0.0012 | -0.0158 | -0.0236 |
2026.875 | 0.0206 | 0.2650 | 0.3919 | -0.0095 | -0.1202 | -0.4971 | 0.0072 | 0.0927 | 0.1370 | -0.0012 | -0.0157 | -0.0231 |
2027.125 | 0.0204 | 0.2621 | 0.3840 | -0.0091 | -0.1163 | -0.4997 | 0.0071 | 0.0916 | 0.1342 | -0.0012 | -0.0155 | -0.0227 |
2027.375 | 0.0202 | 0.2592 | 0.3762 | -0.0088 | -0.1124 | -0.5022 | 0.0071 | 0.0907 | 0.1315 | -0.0012 | -0.0153 | -0.0222 |
2027.625 | 0.0200 | 0.2565 | 0.3684 | -0.0085 | -0.1086 | -0.5047 | 0.0070 | 0.0897 | 0.1288 | -0.0012 | -0.0151 | -0.0217 |
2027.875 | 0.0198 | 0.2538 | 0.3606 | -0.0083 | -0.1048 | -0.5071 | 0.0069 | 0.0888 | 0.1261 | -0.0012 | -0.0150 | -0.0213 |
2028.125 | 0.0195 | 0.2512 | 0.3529 | -0.0080 | -0.1012 | -0.5094 | 0.0068 | 0.0878 | 0.1234 | -0.0012 | -0.0148 | -0.0208 |
2028.375 | 0.0194 | 0.2487 | 0.3453 | -0.0077 | -0.0975 | -0.5116 | 0.0068 | 0.0870 | 0.1207 | -0.0011 | -0.0147 | -0.0204 |
2028.625 | 0.0192 | 0.2462 | 0.3377 | -0.0074 | -0.0940 | -0.5138 | 0.0067 | 0.0861 | 0.1181 | -0.0011 | -0.0145 | -0.0199 |
2028.875 | 0.0190 | 0.2438 | 0.3302 | -0.0071 | -0.0905 | -0.5159 | 0.0066 | 0.0853 | 0.1154 | -0.0011 | -0.0144 | -0.0194 |
2029.125 | 0.0188 | 0.2415 | 0.3227 | -0.0069 | -0.0870 | -0.5180 | 0.0066 | 0.0845 | 0.1128 | -0.0011 | -0.0142 | -0.0190 |
2029.375 | 0.0186 | 0.2392 | 0.3153 | -0.0066 | -0.0836 | -0.5200 | 0.0065 | 0.0837 | 0.1102 | -0.0011 | -0.0141 | -0.0186 |
2029.625 | 0.0184 | 0.2370 | 0.3079 | -0.0063 | -0.0803 | -0.5219 | 0.0065 | 0.0829 | 0.1077 | -0.0011 | -0.0140 | -0.0181 |
2029.875 | 0.0183 | 0.2349 | 0.3006 | -0.0061 | -0.0771 | -0.5238 | 0.0064 | 0.0821 | 0.1051 | -0.0011 | -0.0138 | -0.0177 |
2030.125 | 0.0181 | 0.2328 | 0.2934 | -0.0058 | -0.0739 | -0.5256 | 0.0063 | 0.0814 | 0.1026 | -0.0011 | -0.0137 | -0.0173 |
2030.375 | 0.0180 | 0.2308 | 0.2862 | -0.0056 | -0.0707 | -0.5274 | 0.0063 | 0.0807 | 0.1001 | -0.0011 | -0.0136 | -0.0168 |
2030.625 | 0.0178 | 0.2288 | 0.2791 | -0.0053 | -0.0677 | -0.5291 | 0.0062 | 0.0800 | 0.0976 | -0.0010 | -0.0135 | -0.0164 |
2030.875 | 0.0177 | 0.2269 | 0.2721 | -0.0051 | -0.0647 | -0.5308 | 0.0062 | 0.0794 | 0.0951 | -0.0010 | -0.0133 | -0.0160 |
2031.125 | 0.0175 | 0.2250 | 0.2651 | -0.0049 | -0.0617 | -0.5325 | 0.0061 | 0.0787 | 0.0927 | -0.0010 | -0.0132 | -0.0156 |
2031.375 | 0.0174 | 0.2232 | 0.2582 | -0.0046 | -0.0588 | -0.5340 | 0.0061 | 0.0781 | 0.0903 | -0.0010 | -0.0131 | -0.0152 |
2031.625 | 0.0172 | 0.2215 | 0.2513 | -0.0044 | -0.0560 | -0.5356 | 0.0060 | 0.0775 | 0.0879 | -0.0010 | -0.0130 | -0.0148 |
2031.875 | 0.0171 | 0.2197 | 0.2445 | -0.0042 | -0.0532 | -0.5371 | 0.0060 | 0.0769 | 0.0855 | -0.0010 | -0.0129 | -0.0144 |
2032.125 | 0.0170 | 0.2181 | 0.2378 | -0.0040 | -0.0505 | -0.5385 | 0.0059 | 0.0763 | 0.0832 | -0.0010 | -0.0128 | -0.0140 |
2032.375 | 0.0168 | 0.2164 | 0.2312 | -0.0038 | -0.0479 | -0.5399 | 0.0059 | 0.0757 | 0.0809 | -0.0010 | -0.0127 | -0.0136 |
2032.625 | 0.0167 | 0.2148 | 0.2246 | -0.0036 | -0.0453 | -0.5413 | 0.0058 | 0.0751 | 0.0786 | -0.0010 | -0.0126 | -0.0132 |
2032.875 | 0.0166 | 0.2133 | 0.2181 | -0.0034 | -0.0428 | -0.5427 | 0.0058 | 0.0746 | 0.0763 | -0.0010 | -0.0125 | -0.0128 |
2033.125 | 0.0165 | 0.2117 | 0.2117 | -0.0032 | -0.0403 | -0.5440 | 0.0058 | 0.0741 | 0.0740 | -0.0010 | -0.0124 | -0.0124 |
2033.375 | 0.0164 | 0.2102 | 0.2053 | -0.0030 | -0.0379 | -0.5453 | 0.0057 | 0.0735 | 0.0718 | -0.0010 | -0.0123 | -0.0120 |
2033.625 | 0.0162 | 0.2087 | 0.1991 | -0.0028 | -0.0356 | -0.5465 | 0.0057 | 0.0730 | 0.0696 | -0.0010 | -0.0122 | -0.0117 |
2033.875 | 0.0161 | 0.2073 | 0.1929 | -0.0026 | -0.0333 | -0.5478 | 0.0056 | 0.0725 | 0.0675 | -0.0009 | -0.0122 | -0.0113 |
2034.125 | 0.0160 | 0.2059 | 0.1869 | -0.0025 | -0.0310 | -0.5490 | 0.0056 | 0.0720 | 0.0654 | -0.0009 | -0.0121 | -0.0110 |
2034.375 | 0.0159 | 0.2045 | 0.1809 | -0.0023 | -0.0289 | -0.5502 | 0.0056 | 0.0715 | 0.0633 | -0.0009 | -0.0120 | -0.0106 |
2034.625 | 0.0158 | 0.2031 | 0.1751 | -0.0021 | -0.0267 | -0.5514 | 0.0055 | 0.0710 | 0.0612 | -0.0009 | -0.0119 | -0.0103 |
2034.875 | 0.0157 | 0.2017 | 0.1694 | -0.0020 | -0.0247 | -0.5526 | 0.0055 | 0.0706 | 0.0593 | -0.0009 | -0.0118 | -0.0099 |
2035.125 | 0.0156 | 0.2004 | 0.1638 | -0.0018 | -0.0227 | -0.5538 | 0.0055 | 0.0701 | 0.0573 | -0.0009 | -0.0117 | -0.0096 |
2035.375 | 0.0155 | 0.1991 | 0.1584 | -0.0017 | -0.0207 | -0.5550 | 0.0054 | 0.0696 | 0.0554 | -0.0009 | -0.0117 | -0.0093 |
2035.625 | 0.0154 | 0.1977 | 0.1531 | -0.0015 | -0.0188 | -0.5562 | 0.0054 | 0.0692 | 0.0535 | -0.0009 | -0.0116 | -0.0090 |
2035.875 | 0.0153 | 0.1964 | 0.1479 | -0.0014 | -0.0170 | -0.5574 | 0.0054 | 0.0687 | 0.0518 | -0.0009 | -0.0115 | -0.0087 |
2036.125 | 0.0152 | 0.1952 | 0.1430 | -0.0012 | -0.0152 | -0.5587 | 0.0053 | 0.0683 | 0.0500 | -0.0009 | -0.0114 | -0.0084 |
2036.375 | 0.0151 | 0.1939 | 0.1384 | -0.0011 | -0.0134 | -0.5600 | 0.0053 | 0.0678 | 0.0484 | -0.0009 | -0.0114 | -0.0081 |
2036.625 | 0.0150 | 0.1926 | 0.1340 | -0.0010 | -0.0117 | -0.5614 | 0.0052 | 0.0674 | 0.0469 | -0.0009 | -0.0113 | -0.0079 |
2036.875 | 0.0149 | 0.1914 | 0.1299 | -0.0008 | -0.0101 | -0.5629 | 0.0052 | 0.0669 | 0.0454 | -0.0009 | -0.0112 | -0.0076 |
2037.125 | 0.0148 | 0.1901 | 0.1259 | -0.0007 | -0.0085 | -0.5644 | 0.0052 | 0.0665 | 0.0441 | -0.0009 | -0.0111 | -0.0074 |
2037.375 | 0.0147 | 0.1888 | 0.1222 | -0.0006 | -0.0070 | -0.5658 | 0.0051 | 0.0661 | 0.0427 | -0.0009 | -0.0111 | -0.0072 |
2037.625 | 0.0146 | 0.1876 | 0.1184 | -0.0005 | -0.0055 | -0.5672 | 0.0051 | 0.0656 | 0.0414 | -0.0009 | -0.0110 | -0.0069 |
2037.875 | 0.0145 | 0.1864 | 0.1147 | -0.0003 | -0.0040 | -0.5685 | 0.0051 | 0.0652 | 0.0401 | -0.0009 | -0.0109 | -0.0067 |
2038.125 | 0.0144 | 0.1851 | 0.1110 | -0.0002 | -0.0026 | -0.5697 | 0.0050 | 0.0648 | 0.0388 | -0.0008 | -0.0108 | -0.0065 |
2038.375 | 0.0143 | 0.1839 | 0.1079 | -0.0001 | -0.0013 | -0.5712 | 0.0050 | 0.0643 | 0.0377 | -0.0008 | -0.0108 | -0.0063 |
2038.625 | 0.0142 | 0.1827 | 0.1049 | -0.0000 | -0.0001 | -0.5727 | 0.0050 | 0.0639 | 0.0367 | -0.0008 | -0.0107 | -0.0061 |
2038.875 | 0.0141 | 0.1816 | 0.1021 | 0.0001 | 0.0011 | -0.5742 | 0.0049 | 0.0635 | 0.0357 | -0.0008 | -0.0106 | -0.0060 |
2039.125 | 0.0140 | 0.1804 | 0.0994 | 0.0002 | 0.0023 | -0.5757 | 0.0049 | 0.0631 | 0.0348 | -0.0008 | -0.0106 | -0.0058 |
2039.375 | 0.0140 | 0.1792 | 0.0968 | 0.0002 | 0.0034 | -0.5772 | 0.0049 | 0.0627 | 0.0339 | -0.0008 | -0.0105 | -0.0057 |
2039.625 | 0.0139 | 0.1780 | 0.0944 | 0.0003 | 0.0045 | -0.5786 | 0.0049 | 0.0623 | 0.0330 | -0.0008 | -0.0104 | -0.0055 |
2039.875 | 0.0138 | 0.1769 | 0.0921 | 0.0004 | 0.0055 | -0.5801 | 0.0048 | 0.0619 | 0.0322 | -0.0008 | -0.0104 | -0.0054 |
2040.125 | 0.0137 | 0.1757 | 0.0899 | 0.0005 | 0.0065 | -0.5815 | 0.0048 | 0.0615 | 0.0314 | -0.0008 | -0.0103 | -0.0053 |
2040.375 | 0.0136 | 0.1745 | 0.0878 | 0.0006 | 0.0075 | -0.5830 | 0.0048 | 0.0611 | 0.0307 | -0.0008 | -0.0102 | -0.0051 |
2040.625 | 0.0135 | 0.1734 | 0.0857 | 0.0006 | 0.0084 | -0.5844 | 0.0047 | 0.0606 | 0.0300 | -0.0008 | -0.0101 | -0.0050 |
2040.875 | 0.0134 | 0.1722 | 0.0838 | 0.0007 | 0.0092 | -0.5858 | 0.0047 | 0.0602 | 0.0293 | -0.0008 | -0.0101 | -0.0049 |
2041.125 | 0.0133 | 0.1710 | 0.0819 | 0.0008 | 0.0101 | -0.5871 | 0.0047 | 0.0598 | 0.0287 | -0.0008 | -0.0100 | -0.0048 |
2041.375 | 0.0132 | 0.1698 | 0.0801 | 0.0008 | 0.0108 | -0.5884 | 0.0046 | 0.0594 | 0.0280 | -0.0008 | -0.0099 | -0.0047 |
2041.625 | 0.0131 | 0.1687 | 0.0783 | 0.0009 | 0.0116 | -0.5897 | 0.0046 | 0.0590 | 0.0274 | -0.0008 | -0.0099 | -0.0046 |
2041.875 | 0.0130 | 0.1675 | 0.0766 | 0.0009 | 0.0123 | -0.5910 | 0.0046 | 0.0586 | 0.0268 | -0.0008 | -0.0098 | -0.0045 |
2042.125 | 0.0130 | 0.1663 | 0.0749 | 0.0010 | 0.0130 | -0.5922 | 0.0045 | 0.0582 | 0.0262 | -0.0008 | -0.0097 | -0.0044 |
2042.375 | 0.0129 | 0.1650 | 0.0733 | 0.0010 | 0.0136 | -0.5934 | 0.0045 | 0.0577 | 0.0256 | -0.0008 | -0.0097 | -0.0043 |
2042.625 | 0.0128 | 0.1638 | 0.0716 | 0.0011 | 0.0142 | -0.5945 | 0.0045 | 0.0573 | 0.0251 | -0.0007 | -0.0096 | -0.0042 |
2042.875 | 0.0127 | 0.1626 | 0.0700 | 0.0011 | 0.0148 | -0.5956 | 0.0044 | 0.0569 | 0.0245 | -0.0007 | -0.0095 | -0.0041 |
2043.125 | 0.0126 | 0.1613 | 0.0684 | 0.0012 | 0.0153 | -0.5966 | 0.0044 | 0.0564 | 0.0239 | -0.0007 | -0.0094 | -0.0040 |
2043.375 | 0.0125 | 0.1601 | 0.0667 | 0.0012 | 0.0158 | -0.5976 | 0.0044 | 0.0560 | 0.0234 | -0.0007 | -0.0094 | -0.0039 |
2043.625 | 0.0124 | 0.1588 | 0.0651 | 0.0013 | 0.0163 | -0.5985 | 0.0043 | 0.0556 | 0.0228 | -0.0007 | -0.0093 | -0.0038 |
2043.875 | 0.0123 | 0.1576 | 0.0635 | 0.0013 | 0.0167 | -0.5993 | 0.0043 | 0.0551 | 0.0222 | -0.0007 | -0.0092 | -0.0037 |
2044.125 | 0.0122 | 0.1563 | 0.0618 | 0.0013 | 0.0171 | -0.6001 | 0.0043 | 0.0547 | 0.0216 | -0.0007 | -0.0091 | -0.0036 |
2044.375 | 0.0121 | 0.1550 | 0.0602 | 0.0013 | 0.0175 | -0.6009 | 0.0042 | 0.0542 | 0.0211 | -0.0007 | -0.0091 | -0.0035 |
2044.625 | 0.0120 | 0.1537 | 0.0585 | 0.0014 | 0.0178 | -0.6015 | 0.0042 | 0.0538 | 0.0205 | -0.0007 | -0.0090 | -0.0034 |
2044.875 | 0.0119 | 0.1523 | 0.0568 | 0.0014 | 0.0181 | -0.6021 | 0.0042 | 0.0533 | 0.0199 | -0.0007 | -0.0089 | -0.0033 |
2045.125 | 0.0118 | 0.1510 | 0.0550 | 0.0014 | 0.0184 | -0.6027 | 0.0041 | 0.0528 | 0.0193 | -0.0007 | -0.0088 | -0.0032 |
2045.375 | 0.0117 | 0.1497 | 0.0533 | 0.0014 | 0.0187 | -0.6031 | 0.0041 | 0.0524 | 0.0186 | -0.0007 | -0.0087 | -0.0031 |
2045.625 | 0.0116 | 0.1483 | 0.0514 | 0.0015 | 0.0190 | -0.6035 | 0.0040 | 0.0519 | 0.0180 | -0.0007 | -0.0087 | -0.0030 |
2045.875 | 0.0115 | 0.1470 | 0.0496 | 0.0015 | 0.0192 | -0.6038 | 0.0040 | 0.0514 | 0.0174 | -0.0007 | -0.0086 | -0.0029 |
2046.125 | 0.0113 | 0.1456 | 0.0477 | 0.0015 | 0.0194 | -0.6040 | 0.0040 | 0.0509 | 0.0167 | -0.0007 | -0.0085 | -0.0028 |
2046.375 | 0.0112 | 0.1442 | 0.0458 | 0.0015 | 0.0196 | -0.6042 | 0.0039 | 0.0504 | 0.0160 | -0.0007 | -0.0084 | -0.0027 |
2046.625 | 0.0111 | 0.1428 | 0.0439 | 0.0015 | 0.0197 | -0.6042 | 0.0039 | 0.0500 | 0.0154 | -0.0007 | -0.0083 | -0.0026 |
2046.875 | 0.0110 | 0.1414 | 0.0419 | 0.0015 | 0.0199 | -0.6042 | 0.0039 | 0.0495 | 0.0147 | -0.0006 | -0.0083 | -0.0024 |
2047.125 | 0.0109 | 0.1400 | 0.0399 | 0.0015 | 0.0200 | -0.6042 | 0.0038 | 0.0490 | 0.0139 | -0.0006 | -0.0082 | -0.0023 |
2047.375 | 0.0108 | 0.1385 | 0.0378 | 0.0016 | 0.0201 | -0.6040 | 0.0038 | 0.0485 | 0.0132 | -0.0006 | -0.0081 | -0.0022 |
2047.625 | 0.0107 | 0.1371 | 0.0357 | 0.0016 | 0.0202 | -0.6038 | 0.0037 | 0.0480 | 0.0125 | -0.0006 | -0.0080 | -0.0021 |
2047.875 | 0.0106 | 0.1357 | 0.0335 | 0.0016 | 0.0202 | -0.6034 | 0.0037 | 0.0475 | 0.0117 | -0.0006 | -0.0079 | -0.0020 |
2048.125 | 0.0105 | 0.1342 | 0.0314 | 0.0016 | 0.0203 | -0.6030 | 0.0037 | 0.0470 | 0.0110 | -0.0006 | -0.0078 | -0.0018 |
2048.375 | 0.0104 | 0.1328 | 0.0291 | 0.0016 | 0.0203 | -0.6025 | 0.0036 | 0.0464 | 0.0102 | -0.0006 | -0.0077 | -0.0017 |
2048.625 | 0.0102 | 0.1313 | 0.0269 | 0.0016 | 0.0203 | -0.6020 | 0.0036 | 0.0459 | 0.0094 | -0.0006 | -0.0076 | -0.0016 |
2048.875 | 0.0101 | 0.1298 | 0.0246 | 0.0016 | 0.0203 | -0.6013 | 0.0035 | 0.0454 | 0.0086 | -0.0006 | -0.0076 | -0.0014 |
2049.125 | 0.0100 | 0.1284 | 0.0223 | 0.0016 | 0.0203 | -0.6006 | 0.0035 | 0.0449 | 0.0078 | -0.0006 | -0.0075 | -0.0013 |
2049.375 | 0.0099 | 0.1269 | 0.0199 | 0.0016 | 0.0202 | -0.5998 | 0.0035 | 0.0444 | 0.0070 | -0.0006 | -0.0074 | -0.0012 |
2049.625 | 0.0098 | 0.1254 | 0.0176 | 0.0016 | 0.0202 | -0.5989 | 0.0034 | 0.0439 | 0.0061 | -0.0006 | -0.0073 | -0.0010 |
2049.875 | 0.0097 | 0.1239 | 0.0152 | 0.0016 | 0.0201 | -0.5979 | 0.0034 | 0.0433 | 0.0053 | -0.0006 | -0.0072 | -0.0009 |
2050.125 | 0.0095 | 0.1224 | 0.0127 | 0.0016 | 0.0200 | -0.5969 | 0.0033 | 0.0428 | 0.0045 | -0.0006 | -0.0071 | -0.0007 |
2050.375 | 0.0094 | 0.1209 | 0.0103 | 0.0015 | 0.0200 | -0.5957 | 0.0033 | 0.0423 | 0.0036 | -0.0005 | -0.0070 | -0.0006 |
2050.625 | 0.0093 | 0.1194 | 0.0078 | 0.0015 | 0.0199 | -0.5945 | 0.0033 | 0.0418 | 0.0027 | -0.0005 | -0.0069 | -0.0005 |
2050.875 | 0.0092 | 0.1179 | 0.0053 | 0.0015 | 0.0197 | -0.5933 | 0.0032 | 0.0413 | 0.0019 | -0.0005 | -0.0069 | -0.0003 |
2051.125 | 0.0091 | 0.1164 | 0.0028 | 0.0015 | 0.0196 | -0.5919 | 0.0032 | 0.0407 | 0.0010 | -0.0005 | -0.0068 | -0.0002 |
2051.375 | 0.0090 | 0.1149 | 0.0003 | 0.0015 | 0.0195 | -0.5905 | 0.0031 | 0.0402 | 0.0001 | -0.0005 | -0.0067 | -0.0000 |
2051.625 | 0.0088 | 0.1134 | -0.0022 | 0.0015 | 0.0194 | -0.5890 | 0.0031 | 0.0397 | -0.0008 | -0.0005 | -0.0066 | 0.0001 |
2051.875 | 0.0087 | 0.1119 | -0.0047 | 0.0015 | 0.0192 | -0.5875 | 0.0031 | 0.0392 | -0.0017 | -0.0005 | -0.0065 | 0.0003 |
2052.125 | 0.0086 | 0.1104 | -0.0073 | 0.0015 | 0.0190 | -0.5858 | 0.0030 | 0.0386 | -0.0025 | -0.0005 | -0.0064 | 0.0004 |
2052.375 | 0.0085 | 0.1089 | -0.0098 | 0.0015 | 0.0189 | -0.5841 | 0.0030 | 0.0381 | -0.0034 | -0.0005 | -0.0063 | 0.0006 |
2052.625 | 0.0084 | 0.1074 | -0.0123 | 0.0015 | 0.0187 | -0.5824 | 0.0029 | 0.0376 | -0.0043 | -0.0005 | -0.0062 | 0.0007 |
2052.875 | 0.0083 | 0.1059 | -0.0148 | 0.0014 | 0.0185 | -0.5806 | 0.0029 | 0.0371 | -0.0052 | -0.0005 | -0.0061 | 0.0009 |
2053.125 | 0.0081 | 0.1045 | -0.0173 | 0.0014 | 0.0183 | -0.5787 | 0.0029 | 0.0365 | -0.0061 | -0.0005 | -0.0060 | 0.0010 |
2053.375 | 0.0080 | 0.1030 | -0.0198 | 0.0014 | 0.0181 | -0.5768 | 0.0028 | 0.0360 | -0.0069 | -0.0005 | -0.0060 | 0.0011 |
2053.625 | 0.0079 | 0.1015 | -0.0223 | 0.0014 | 0.0179 | -0.5748 | 0.0028 | 0.0355 | -0.0078 | -0.0005 | -0.0059 | 0.0013 |
2053.875 | 0.0078 | 0.1000 | -0.0247 | 0.0014 | 0.0177 | -0.5728 | 0.0027 | 0.0350 | -0.0087 | -0.0005 | -0.0058 | 0.0014 |
2054.125 | 0.0077 | 0.0985 | -0.0271 | 0.0014 | 0.0175 | -0.5707 | 0.0027 | 0.0345 | -0.0095 | -0.0004 | -0.0057 | 0.0016 |
2054.375 | 0.0076 | 0.0971 | -0.0295 | 0.0013 | 0.0173 | -0.5686 | 0.0027 | 0.0340 | -0.0103 | -0.0004 | -0.0056 | 0.0017 |
2054.625 | 0.0075 | 0.0956 | -0.0319 | 0.0013 | 0.0171 | -0.5664 | 0.0026 | 0.0335 | -0.0112 | -0.0004 | -0.0055 | 0.0018 |
2054.875 | 0.0073 | 0.0942 | -0.0342 | 0.0013 | 0.0168 | -0.5642 | 0.0026 | 0.0330 | -0.0120 | -0.0004 | -0.0054 | 0.0020 |
2055.125 | 0.0072 | 0.0927 | -0.0365 | 0.0013 | 0.0166 | -0.5619 | 0.0025 | 0.0324 | -0.0128 | -0.0004 | -0.0054 | 0.0021 |
2055.375 | 0.0071 | 0.0913 | -0.0387 | 0.0013 | 0.0164 | -0.5596 | 0.0025 | 0.0319 | -0.0136 | -0.0004 | -0.0053 | 0.0022 |
2055.625 | 0.0070 | 0.0899 | -0.0409 | 0.0013 | 0.0161 | -0.5573 | 0.0025 | 0.0314 | -0.0143 | -0.0004 | -0.0052 | 0.0024 |
2055.875 | 0.0069 | 0.0885 | -0.0430 | 0.0012 | 0.0159 | -0.5550 | 0.0024 | 0.0310 | -0.0151 | -0.0004 | -0.0051 | 0.0025 |
2056.125 | 0.0068 | 0.0871 | -0.0451 | 0.0012 | 0.0156 | -0.5526 | 0.0024 | 0.0305 | -0.0158 | -0.0004 | -0.0050 | 0.0026 |
2056.375 | 0.0067 | 0.0857 | -0.0471 | 0.0012 | 0.0154 | -0.5502 | 0.0023 | 0.0300 | -0.0165 | -0.0004 | -0.0049 | 0.0027 |
2056.625 | 0.0066 | 0.0843 | -0.0491 | 0.0012 | 0.0151 | -0.5478 | 0.0023 | 0.0295 | -0.0172 | -0.0004 | -0.0049 | 0.0028 |
2056.875 | 0.0065 | 0.0829 | -0.0510 | 0.0012 | 0.0149 | -0.5453 | 0.0023 | 0.0290 | -0.0178 | -0.0004 | -0.0048 | 0.0029 |
2057.125 | 0.0064 | 0.0815 | -0.0528 | 0.0011 | 0.0146 | -0.5429 | 0.0022 | 0.0285 | -0.0185 | -0.0004 | -0.0047 | 0.0030 |
2057.375 | 0.0063 | 0.0802 | -0.0545 | 0.0011 | 0.0144 | -0.5404 | 0.0022 | 0.0280 | -0.0191 | -0.0004 | -0.0046 | 0.0031 |
2057.625 | 0.0061 | 0.0788 | -0.0562 | 0.0011 | 0.0141 | -0.5379 | 0.0022 | 0.0276 | -0.0197 | -0.0004 | -0.0045 | 0.0032 |
2057.875 | 0.0060 | 0.0775 | -0.0578 | 0.0011 | 0.0139 | -0.5355 | 0.0021 | 0.0271 | -0.0202 | -0.0003 | -0.0045 | 0.0033 |
2058.125 | 0.0059 | 0.0762 | -0.0593 | 0.0011 | 0.0136 | -0.5330 | 0.0021 | 0.0266 | -0.0208 | -0.0003 | -0.0044 | 0.0034 |
2058.375 | 0.0058 | 0.0748 | -0.0608 | 0.0010 | 0.0133 | -0.5305 | 0.0020 | 0.0262 | -0.0213 | -0.0003 | -0.0043 | 0.0035 |
2058.625 | 0.0057 | 0.0735 | -0.0621 | 0.0010 | 0.0131 | -0.5280 | 0.0020 | 0.0257 | -0.0217 | -0.0003 | -0.0042 | 0.0036 |
2058.875 | 0.0056 | 0.0723 | -0.0634 | 0.0010 | 0.0128 | -0.5256 | 0.0020 | 0.0253 | -0.0222 | -0.0003 | -0.0041 | 0.0036 |
2059.125 | 0.0055 | 0.0710 | -0.0646 | 0.0010 | 0.0125 | -0.5231 | 0.0019 | 0.0248 | -0.0226 | -0.0003 | -0.0041 | 0.0037 |
2059.375 | 0.0054 | 0.0697 | -0.0657 | 0.0010 | 0.0123 | -0.5206 | 0.0019 | 0.0244 | -0.0230 | -0.0003 | -0.0040 | 0.0038 |
2059.625 | 0.0053 | 0.0685 | -0.0667 | 0.0009 | 0.0120 | -0.5182 | 0.0019 | 0.0240 | -0.0233 | -0.0003 | -0.0039 | 0.0038 |
2059.875 | 0.0052 | 0.0672 | -0.0676 | 0.0009 | 0.0117 | -0.5157 | 0.0018 | 0.0235 | -0.0237 | -0.0003 | -0.0039 | 0.0039 |