Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2020-060

Supply-Side Effects of Pandemic Mortality: Insights from an Overlapping-Generations Model

Accessible version of figures


Figure 1: Baseline mortality assumptions for COVID-19 pandemic
Source: Authors' interpolation of estimates from Verity et al., 2020; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) - University of Washington.
Notes: In the right panel, the shaded area around the mean represents the projection's 95-percent uncertainty band. The IHEM projection for total U.S. deaths attributable to COVID-19 is dated June 13, 2020, and uses smoothed data.

Left panel: Infection Fatality Rate (in percent)

Middle of quarterly age bin (in years) Rate
0.125 0.00
0.375 0.00
0.625 0.00
0.875 0.00
1.125 0.00
1.375 0.00
1.625 0.00
1.875 0.00
2.125 0.00
2.375 0.00
2.625 0.00
2.875 0.00
3.125 0.00
3.375 0.00
3.625 0.00
3.875 0.00
4.125 0.00
4.375 0.00
4.625 0.00
4.875 0.00
5.125 0.00
5.375 0.00
5.625 0.00
5.875 0.00
6.125 0.00
6.375 0.00
6.625 0.00
6.875 0.00
7.125 0.00
7.375 0.00
7.625 0.00
7.875 0.00
8.125 0.00
8.375 0.00
8.625 0.00
8.875 0.00
9.125 0.00
9.375 0.00
9.625 0.00
9.875 0.00
10.125 0.00
10.375 0.00
10.625 0.00
10.875 0.00
11.125 0.00
11.375 0.00
11.625 0.00
11.875 0.00
12.125 0.00
12.375 0.00
12.625 0.00
12.875 0.00
13.125 0.01
13.375 0.01
13.625 0.01
13.875 0.01
14.125 0.01
14.375 0.01
14.625 0.01
14.875 0.01
15.125 0.01
15.375 0.01
15.625 0.01
15.875 0.01
16.125 0.01
16.375 0.01
16.625 0.01
16.875 0.01
17.125 0.01
17.375 0.01
17.625 0.01
17.875 0.01
18.125 0.01
18.375 0.01
18.625 0.01
18.875 0.01
19.125 0.01
19.375 0.01
19.625 0.01
19.875 0.01
20.125 0.01
20.375 0.02
20.625 0.02
20.875 0.02
21.125 0.02
21.375 0.02
21.625 0.02
21.875 0.02
22.125 0.02
22.375 0.02
22.625 0.02
22.875 0.02
23.125 0.02
23.375 0.02
23.625 0.03
23.875 0.03
24.125 0.03
24.375 0.03
24.625 0.03
24.875 0.03
25.125 0.03
25.375 0.03
25.625 0.03
25.875 0.04
26.125 0.04
26.375 0.04
26.625 0.04
26.875 0.04
27.125 0.04
27.375 0.04
27.625 0.04
27.875 0.05
28.125 0.05
28.375 0.05
28.625 0.05
28.875 0.05
29.125 0.05
29.375 0.05
29.625 0.06
29.875 0.06
30.125 0.06
30.375 0.06
30.625 0.06
30.875 0.06
31.125 0.06
31.375 0.07
31.625 0.07
31.875 0.07
32.125 0.07
32.375 0.07
32.625 0.07
32.875 0.07
33.125 0.08
33.375 0.08
33.625 0.08
33.875 0.08
34.125 0.08
34.375 0.08
34.625 0.08
34.875 0.08
35.125 0.08
35.375 0.09
35.625 0.09
35.875 0.09
36.125 0.09
36.375 0.09
36.625 0.09
36.875 0.09
37.125 0.09
37.375 0.09
37.625 0.09
37.875 0.10
38.125 0.10
38.375 0.10
38.625 0.10
38.875 0.10
39.125 0.10
39.375 0.10
39.625 0.10
39.875 0.11
40.125 0.11
40.375 0.11
40.625 0.11
40.875 0.11
41.125 0.11
41.375 0.12
41.625 0.12
41.875 0.12
42.125 0.12
42.375 0.13
42.625 0.13
42.875 0.13
43.125 0.13
43.375 0.14
43.625 0.14
43.875 0.14
44.125 0.15
44.375 0.15
44.625 0.15
44.875 0.16
45.125 0.16
45.375 0.17
45.625 0.17
45.875 0.18
46.125 0.18
46.375 0.19
46.625 0.19
46.875 0.20
47.125 0.21
47.375 0.21
47.625 0.22
47.875 0.23
48.125 0.23
48.375 0.24
48.625 0.25
48.875 0.26
49.125 0.27
49.375 0.28
49.625 0.29
49.875 0.30
50.125 0.31
50.375 0.32
50.625 0.33
50.875 0.34
51.125 0.35
51.375 0.36
51.625 0.38
51.875 0.39
52.125 0.40
52.375 0.42
52.625 0.43
52.875 0.45
53.125 0.46
53.375 0.48
53.625 0.49
53.875 0.51
54.125 0.53
54.375 0.55
54.625 0.57
54.875 0.59
55.125 0.61
55.375 0.63
55.625 0.65
55.875 0.67
56.125 0.69
56.375 0.71
56.625 0.74
56.875 0.76
57.125 0.79
57.375 0.81
57.625 0.84
57.875 0.86
58.125 0.89
58.375 0.92
58.625 0.95
58.875 0.98
59.125 1.01
59.375 1.04
59.625 1.07
59.875 1.10
60.125 1.13
60.375 1.17
60.625 1.20
60.875 1.24
61.125 1.27
61.375 1.31
61.625 1.35
61.875 1.38
62.125 1.42
62.375 1.46
62.625 1.50
62.875 1.55
63.125 1.59
63.375 1.63
63.625 1.67
63.875 1.72
64.125 1.76
64.375 1.81
64.625 1.86
64.875 1.91
65.125 1.95
65.375 2.00
65.625 2.05
65.875 2.11
66.125 2.16
66.375 2.21
66.625 2.26
66.875 2.32
67.125 2.37
67.375 2.43
67.625 2.49
67.875 2.54
68.125 2.60
68.375 2.66
68.625 2.72
68.875 2.77
69.125 2.83
69.375 2.89
69.625 2.95
69.875 3.01
70.125 3.07
70.375 3.14
70.625 3.20
70.875 3.26
71.125 3.32
71.375 3.38
71.625 3.44
71.875 3.51
72.125 3.57
72.375 3.63
72.625 3.69
72.875 3.75
73.125 3.82
73.375 3.88
73.625 3.94
73.875 4.00
74.125 4.06
74.375 4.13
74.625 4.19
74.875 4.25
75.125 4.31
75.375 4.37
75.625 4.43
75.875 4.49
76.125 4.55
76.375 4.61
76.625 4.67
76.875 4.73
77.125 4.79
77.375 4.85
77.625 4.91
77.875 4.97
78.125 5.04
78.375 5.10
78.625 5.16
78.875 5.22
79.125 5.28
79.375 5.34
79.625 5.41
79.875 5.47
80.125 5.53
80.375 5.60
80.625 5.66
80.875 5.73
81.125 5.79
81.375 5.86
81.625 5.93
81.875 6.00
82.125 6.07
82.375 6.14
82.625 6.21
82.875 6.28
83.125 6.35
83.375 6.43
83.625 6.50
83.875 6.58
84.125 6.66
84.375 6.74
84.625 6.82
84.875 6.90
85.125 6.98
85.375 7.06
85.625 7.15
85.875 7.24
86.125 7.32
86.375 7.41
86.625 7.51
86.875 7.60
87.125 7.69
87.375 7.79
87.625 7.89
87.875 7.99
88.125 8.09
88.375 8.19
88.625 8.30
88.875 8.41
89.125 8.52
89.375 8.63
89.625 8.74
89.875 8.86
90.125 8.97
90.375 9.09
90.625 9.21
90.875 9.34
91.125 9.46
91.375 9.59
91.625 9.72
91.875 9.85
92.125 9.99
92.375 10.13
92.625 10.27
92.875 10.41
93.125 10.55
93.375 10.70
93.625 10.85
93.875 11.00
94.125 11.15
94.375 11.31
94.625 11.47
94.875 11.63
95.125 11.80
95.375 11.97
95.625 12.14
95.875 12.31
96.125 12.49
96.375 12.66
96.625 12.85
96.875 13.03
97.125 13.22
97.375 13.41
97.625 13.60
97.875 13.80
98.125 14.00
98.375 14.20
98.625 14.41
98.875 14.62
99.125 14.83
99.375 15.05
99.625 15.27
99.875 15.49
100.125 15.71
100.375 15.94
100.625 16.17
100.875 16.41
101.125 16.65
101.375 16.89
101.625 17.13
101.875 17.38
102.125 17.62
102.375 17.87
102.625 18.12
102.875 18.38
103.125 18.63
103.375 18.89
103.625 19.14
103.875 19.40
104.125 19.66
104.375 19.92
104.625 20.18
104.875 20.44
105.125 20.71
105.375 20.97
105.625 21.23
105.875 21.49
106.125 21.75
106.375 22.01
106.625 22.27
106.875 22.53
107.125 22.79
107.375 23.05
107.625 23.31
107.875 23.56
108.125 23.82
108.375 24.07
108.625 24.32
108.875 24.57
109.125 24.81
109.375 25.06
109.625 25.30
109.875 25.54
110.125 25.77
110.375 26.01
110.625 26.24
110.875 26.46
111.125 26.69
111.375 26.91
111.625 27.12
111.875 27.34
112.125 27.54
112.375 27.75
112.625 27.95
112.875 28.15
113.125 28.34
113.375 28.52
113.625 28.70
113.875 28.88
114.125 29.05
114.375 29.22
114.625 29.38
114.875 29.53
115.125 29.68
115.375 29.82
115.625 29.96
115.875 30.09
116.125 30.22
116.375 30.33
116.625 30.44
116.875 30.55
117.125 30.64
117.375 30.73
117.625 30.82
117.875 30.89
118.125 30.96
118.375 31.02
118.625 31.07
118.875 31.11
119.125 31.15
119.375 31.17
119.625 31.19
119.875 31.20


Right panel: Total Projected Deaths (in persons)

Day Mean Lowest 2.5 percent Highest 2.5 percent
2020-02-04 12 12 12
2020-02-05 12 12 12
2020-02-06 12 12 12
2020-02-07 12 12 12
2020-02-08 12 12 12
2020-02-09 12 12 12
2020-02-10 12 12 12
2020-02-11 12 12 12
2020-02-12 12 12 12
2020-02-13 12 12 12
2020-02-14 12 12 12
2020-02-15 12 12 12
2020-02-16 12 12 12
2020-02-17 12 12 12
2020-02-18 12 12 12
2020-02-19 12 12 12
2020-02-20 12 12 12
2020-02-21 12 12 12
2020-02-22 12 12 12
2020-02-23 12 12 12
2020-02-24 13 13 13
2020-02-25 13 13 13
2020-02-26 15 15 15
2020-02-27 15 15 15
2020-02-28 17 17 17
2020-02-29 18 18 18
2020-03-01 21 21 21
2020-03-02 24 24 24
2020-03-03 27 27 27
2020-03-04 30 30 30
2020-03-05 34 34 34
2020-03-06 40 40 40
2020-03-07 41 41 41
2020-03-08 48 48 48
2020-03-09 52 52 52
2020-03-10 57 57 57
2020-03-11 62 62 62
2020-03-12 68 68 68
2020-03-13 72 72 72
2020-03-14 84 84 84
2020-03-15 100 100 100
2020-03-16 128 128 128
2020-03-17 157 157 157
2020-03-18 188 188 188
2020-03-19 269 269 269
2020-03-20 339 339 339
2020-03-21 422 422 422
2020-03-22 536 536 536
2020-03-23 661 661 661
2020-03-24 864 864 864
2020-03-25 1137 1137 1137
2020-03-26 1441 1441 1441
2020-03-27 1865 1865 1865
2020-03-28 2420 2420 2420
2020-03-29 2878 2878 2878
2020-03-30 3498 3498 3498
2020-03-31 4537 4537 4537
2020-04-01 5604 5604 5604
2020-04-02 6816 6816 6816
2020-04-03 8316 8316 8316
2020-04-04 9902 9902 9902
2020-04-05 11205 11205 11205
2020-04-06 12379 12379 12379
2020-04-07 14659 14659 14659
2020-04-08 16847 16847 16847
2020-04-09 18954 18954 18954
2020-04-10 21071 21071 21071
2020-04-11 23168 23168 23168
2020-04-12 24929 24929 24929
2020-04-13 26682 26682 26682
2020-04-14 29397 29397 29397
2020-04-15 32005 32005 32005
2020-04-16 34271 34271 34271
2020-04-17 36615 36615 36615
2020-04-18 38568 38568 38568
2020-04-19 40440 40440 40440
2020-04-20 42205 42205 42205
2020-04-21 44633 44633 44633
2020-04-22 47087 47087 47087
2020-04-23 49507 49507 49507
2020-04-24 51479 51479 51479
2020-04-25 53367 53367 53367
2020-04-26 54702 54702 54702
2020-04-27 56229 56229 56229
2020-04-28 58538 58538 58538
2020-04-29 61166 61166 61166
2020-04-30 63295 63295 63295
2020-05-01 65156 65156 65156
2020-05-02 66316 66316 66316
2020-05-03 67835 67835 67835
2020-05-04 69190 69190 69190
2020-05-05 71438 71438 71438
2020-05-06 73912 73912 73912
2020-05-07 75806 75806 75806
2020-05-08 77460 77460 77460
2020-05-09 78905 78905 78905
2020-05-10 79427 79427 79427
2020-05-11 80840 80840 80840
2020-05-12 82507 82507 82507
2020-05-13 84257 84257 84257
2020-05-14 86021 86021 86021
2020-05-15 87662 87662 87662
2020-05-16 88867 88867 88867
2020-05-17 89278 89278 89278
2020-05-18 90503 90503 90503
2020-05-19 92055 92055 92055
2020-05-20 93555 93555 93555
2020-05-21 94837 94837 94837
2020-05-22 96101 96101 96101
2020-05-23 97219 97219 97219
2020-05-24 97372 97372 97372
2020-05-25 97873 97873 97873
2020-05-26 99066 99066 99066
2020-05-27 100543 100543 100543
2020-05-28 101734 101734 101734
2020-05-29 102938 102938 102938
2020-05-30 103880 103880 103880
2020-05-31 104408 104408 104408
2020-06-01 105152 105152 105152
2020-06-02 106171 106171 106171
2020-06-03 107150 107150 107150
2020-06-04 108205 108205 108205
2020-06-05 109347 109347 109347
2020-06-06 109874 109874 109874
2020-06-07 110094 110094 110094
2020-06-08 110773 110773 110773
2020-06-09 111740 111740 111740
2020-06-10 112671 112671 112671
2020-06-11 113551 113551 113551
2020-06-12 114392 114392 114392
2020-06-13 114203 114197 114210
2020-06-14 114948 114918 114979
2020-06-15 115689 115630 115753
2020-06-16 116429 116339 116524
2020-06-17 117167 117048 117298
2020-06-18 117905 117751 118074
2020-06-19 118644 118451 118854
2020-06-20 119383 119151 119640
2020-06-21 120124 119842 120432
2020-06-22 120864 120545 121224
2020-06-23 121602 121237 122006
2020-06-24 122338 121917 122802
2020-06-25 123070 122590 123608
2020-06-26 123798 123266 124403
2020-06-27 124523 123933 125201
2020-06-28 125244 124584 125997
2020-06-29 125961 125244 126810
2020-06-30 126675 125885 127621
2020-07-01 127384 126510 128432
2020-07-02 128089 127124 129258
2020-07-03 128790 127734 130101
2020-07-04 129485 128339 130923
2020-07-05 130175 128934 131775
2020-07-06 130861 129525 132639
2020-07-07 131542 130119 133479
2020-07-08 132217 130700 134330
2020-07-09 132888 131263 135177
2020-07-10 133554 131820 136024
2020-07-11 134216 132372 136872
2020-07-12 134875 132922 137722
2020-07-13 135531 133461 138584
2020-07-14 136184 133999 139467
2020-07-15 136834 134518 140326
2020-07-16 137482 135018 141204
2020-07-17 138128 135517 142086
2020-07-18 138772 136016 142974
2020-07-19 139415 136525 143884
2020-07-20 140056 137031 144873
2020-07-21 140696 137512 145878
2020-07-22 141335 137986 146823
2020-07-23 141974 138469 147748
2020-07-24 142613 138950 148676
2020-07-25 143252 139422 149606
2020-07-26 143891 139893 150541
2020-07-27 144530 140370 151480
2020-07-28 145171 140857 152426
2020-07-29 145812 141350 153423
2020-07-30 146455 141825 154481
2020-07-31 147099 142285 155533
2020-08-01 147744 142724 156490
2020-08-02 148391 143160 157530
2020-08-03 149039 143593 158756
2020-08-04 149690 144037 159903
2020-08-05 150343 144451 160985
2020-08-06 150997 144900 162115
2020-08-07 151654 145348 163369
2020-08-08 152313 145771 164530
2020-08-09 152974 146202 165909
2020-08-10 153638 146637 167311
2020-08-11 154304 147070 168698
2020-08-12 154973 147502 169921
2020-08-13 155644 147933 171148
2020-08-14 156318 148356 172363
2020-08-15 156995 148758 173748
2020-08-16 157674 149158 175075
2020-08-17 158357 149557 176392
2020-08-18 159042 149954 177721
2020-08-19 159729 150353 179064
2020-08-20 160420 150804 180420
2020-08-21 161113 151256 181788
2020-08-22 161808 151709 183165
2020-08-23 162507 152163 184551
2020-08-24 163207 152580 185817
2020-08-25 163911 152997 187038
2020-08-26 164617 153412 188502
2020-08-27 165326 153827 189997
2020-08-28 166037 154242 191641
2020-08-29 166751 154655 193089
2020-08-30 167467 155068 194543
2020-08-31 168193 155480 196001
2020-09-01 168936 155892 197463
2020-09-02 169700 156329 198929
2020-09-03 170488 156776 200404
2020-09-04 171302 157231 201986
2020-09-05 172138 157689 203366
2020-09-06 172990 158153 205416
2020-09-07 173857 158622 207190
2020-09-08 174743 159086 208987
2020-09-09 175647 159530 210823
2020-09-10 176570 160012 212584
2020-09-11 177513 160550 214384
2020-09-12 178476 161071 216269
2020-09-13 179459 161579 218582
2020-09-14 180463 162097 220719
2020-09-15 181488 162622 222994
2020-09-16 182535 163154 225077
2020-09-17 183604 163693 227522
2020-09-18 184696 164202 230206
2020-09-19 185811 164688 233031
2020-09-20 186949 165211 235923
2020-09-21 188111 165767 239078
2020-09-22 189297 166293 241926
2020-09-23 190508 166853 244794
2020-09-24 191744 167472 247710
2020-09-25 193006 168054 250876
2020-09-26 194293 168631 253996
2020-09-27 195606 169169 256668
2020-09-28 196946 169746 259904
2020-09-29 198313 170329 262971
2020-09-30 199707 170928 266167
2020-10-01 201129 171551 269395

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Figure 2: Estimated mortality from the Great Influenza
Source: Authors' calculations using data from the annual publication "Mortality Statistics" of the U.S. Bureau of the Census for the years 1913 to 1920.
Notes: The mortality rates and excess mortality rates encompass all death categorized under "influenza" and related pulmonary causes. See Appendix A for details.

Middle of age bin (in years) Left panel: Mortality Rate (in percent), 1920 Left panel: Mortality Rate (in percent), 1919 Left panel: Mortality Rate (in percent), 1918 Left panel: Mortality Rate (in percent), 1913-1917 (mean) Right panel: Excess mortality Rate (in percentage points), 1918 to 1920
0.5 1.46 1.49 2.13 1.46 0.71
1.5 0.64 0.58 1.34 0.54 0.93
2.5 0.24 0.28 0.71 0.20 0.62
3.5 0.14 0.17 0.44 0.10 0.46
4.5 0.09 0.11 0.33 0.06 0.35
7.5 0.05 0.07 0.19 0.03 0.22
12.5 0.04 0.06 0.16 0.01 0.21
17.5 0.08 0.12 0.37 0.02 0.49
22.5 0.12 0.17 0.62 0.03 0.81
27.5 0.17 0.24 0.92 0.04 1.21
32.5 0.20 0.25 0.94 0.05 1.24
37.5 0.18 0.20 0.67 0.07 0.85
42.5 0.15 0.17 0.46 0.09 0.52
47.5 0.15 0.16 0.38 0.11 0.38
52.5 0.18 0.18 0.35 0.14 0.28
57.5 0.23 0.22 0.38 0.21 0.21
62.5 0.30 0.27 0.43 0.28 0.16
67.5 0.45 0.40 0.58 0.44 0.11
72.5 0.71 0.57 0.82 0.73 -0.09
77.5 0.88 0.71 0.96 1.02 -0.51
82.5 1.02 0.80 1.05 1.25 -0.89
87.5 1.03 0.84 1.02 1.31 -1.04
92.5 0.91 0.75 0.98 1.40 -1.55
97.5 1.09 0.95 1.19 1.85 -2.31
102.5 2.84 2.62 4.47 4.61 -3.89

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Figure 3: Effect on pandemic mortality on population and aggregate employment
Source: Authors' calculations.
Notes: The simulations are conducted under the assumption that all fatalities occur in 2020:Q2. The attack rate is calibrated to yield 200,000 total deaths in the "COVID-19 (baseline)" simulation and set to 70 percent of the population in the "COVID-19 (herd immunity)" simulation. The "Great Influenza" simulation is calibrated to our estimates of excess mortality rates during the 1918-1920 flu pandemic.

Period Total population (percent deviation), COVID-baseline Total population (percent deviation), COVID-Herd Total population (percent deviation), Great Influenza Total employment (percent deviation), COVID-baseline Total employment (percent deviation), COVID-Herd Total employment (percent deviation), Great Influenza
2009.875 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010.125 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010.375 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010.625 0 0 0 0 0 0
2010.875 0 0 0 0 0 0
2011.125 0 0 0 0 0 0
2011.375 0 0 0 0 0 0
2011.625 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Figure 4: Macroeconomic implications of pandemic mortality
Source: Authors' calculations.
Notes: The simulations are conducted under the assumption that all fatalities occur in 2020:Q2. The attack rate is calibrated to 200,000 total deaths in the "COVID-19 (baseline)" simulation and set to 70 percent of the population in "COVID-19 (herd immunity)." The "Great Influenza" simulation is calibrated to our estimates of excess mortality rates during the 1918-1920 flu pandemic.

Period Capital-labor ratio (percent deviation) Capital-labor ratio (percent deviation) Capital-labor ratio (percent deviation) Real output (percent deviation) Real output (percent deviation) Real output (percent deviation) Real wages (percent deviation) Real wages (percent deviation) Real wages (percent deviation) Short-term interest rate (annualized, basis point deviation) Short-term interest rate (annualized, basis point deviation) Short-term interest rate (annualized, basis point deviation)
COVID-baseline COVID-Herd Great Influenza COVID-baseline COVID-Herd Great Influenza COVID-baseline COVID-Herd Great Influenza COVID-baseline COVID-Herd Great Influenza
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