Figure 1: Aggregate Attentiveness: Share of Accurate Respondents (1985-2007)
This figure represents the monthly aggregate attentiveness (accuracy) rate from January 1985 to December 2007, defined as the share of respondents at the first interview
in month $$t$$ whose assessment of recent business conditions aligns with the sign of the three-month change in the unemployment rate (see Section 3 for construction). We use data through
2007m6 to define the "high-attentive" regime as the top $$30\%$$ of the distribution employed in the time-series analysis.
Figure 1 represents the monthly aggregate attentiveness (accuracy) rate from January 1985 to December 2007, defined as the share of respondents whose assessment of recent business conditions aligns with the sign of the three-month change in the unemployment rate (see Section 3 for construction). We use data through 2007m6 to define the “high-attentive” regime as the top 30% of the distribution employed in the time-series analysis. Aggregate attentiveness shows a cyclical property where it is usually high during the recession.