Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2025-109

Estimating Aggregate Data Center Investment with Project-level Data

Accessible version of figures

Figure 1: Investment in data center categories.
(a) Data Center Related Investment
(b) Imputed Data Center Investment
Notes: Panel (a): Nominal investment for data center structures and high-tech computers & peripheral equipment. The estimated trend is calculated from 2015 to 2022; see Section 2 for more details. Investment in data center structures is only available from 2020. Panel (b): Imputed data center investment, which is the sum of data center structures and detrended high-tech equipment.
Source: Authors' calculations using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

equip equip_f cpip inv_dc date
101.98 89.87     2015q1
101.79 91.98     2015q2
103.19 94.08     2015q3
98.36 96.18     2015q4
101.44 98.29     2016q1
100.17 100.39     2016q2
97.47 102.50     2016q3
98.77 104.60     2016q4
99.80 106.70     2017q1
104.17 108.81     2017q2
109.82 110.91     2017q3
109.32 113.02     2017q4
118.37 115.12     2018q1
122.35 117.22     2018q2
122.07 119.33     2018q3
118.99 121.43     2018q4
118.75 123.54     2019q1
123.26 125.64     2019q2
115.68 127.74     2019q3
117.92 129.85     2019q4
114.98 131.95 9.52 -7.45 2020q1
125.12 134.06 8.86 -0.08 2020q2
129.75 136.16 9.28 2.87 2020q3
136.32 138.27 9.25 7.30 2020q4
143.71 140.37 9.56 12.89 2021q1
143.42 142.47 9.35 10.30 2021q2
147.15 144.58 10.32 12.89 2021q3
154.37 146.68 10.56 18.25 2021q4
162.61 148.79 11.01 24.83 2022q1
159.52 150.89 12.19 20.82 2022q2
163.70 152.99 13.43 24.13 2022q3
155.21 155.10 13.70 13.81 2022q4
148.09 157.20 17.30 8.18 2023q1
147.46 159.31 18.32 6.47 2023q2
145.64 161.41 20.33 4.56 2023q3
155.07 163.51 24.04 15.59 2023q4
165.51 165.62 26.39 26.27 2024q1
175.58 167.72 29.93 37.79 2024q2
187.72 169.83 32.65 50.54 2024q3
186.12 171.93 35.60 49.79 2024q4
222.84 174.03 36.71 85.52 2025q1
253.79 176.14 40.39 118.04 2025q2

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Figure 2: Value of New Plans and Planning Stock over Time.
(a) Value of New Plans over Time
(b) Planning Stock Value over Time
Notes: Panel (a) shows the value of new data center plans in a given month. Panel (b) shows the total stock of data center projects currently in the planning stage in a given month.
Source: Authors' calculations using data from Dodge Construction Network.

value_plan date_plan
0.00 2022m1
0.25 2022m2
0.00 2022m3
0.52 2022m4
1.07 2022m5
0.95 2022m6
0.53 2022m7
0.06 2022m8
0.35 2022m9
0.54 2022m10
0.09 2022m11
0.09 2022m12
0.68 2023m1
8.95 2023m2
0.02 2023m3
0.44 2023m4
4.66 2023m5
0.27 2023m6
1 2023m7
3.00 2023m8
1.08 2023m9
2.01 2023m10
2.93 2023m11
73.77 2023m12
11.44 2024m1
13.23 2024m2
9.91 2024m3
37.68 2024m4
32.46 2024m5
15.32 2024m6
23.73 2024m7
51.42 2024m8
14.99 2024m9
20.53 2024m10
33.55 2024m11
24.02 2024m12
44.92 2025m1
429.73 2025m2
33.86 2025m3
159.64 2025m4
31.96 2025m5
49.82 2025m6
110.81 2025m7
47.54 2025m8
65.13 2025m9
0  

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planning_stock_value date
17.86 2022m1
17.81 2022m2
17.74 2022m3
17.36 2022m4
17.12 2022m5
17.30 2022m6
17.79 2022m7
16.57 2022m8
16.31 2022m9
15.65 2022m10
15.56 2022m11
15.42 2022m12
15.44 2023m1
23.38 2023m2
21.88 2023m3
21.88 2023m4
25.56 2023m5
24.08 2023m6
24.05 2023m7
24.78 2023m8
25.55 2023m9
26.23 2023m10
26.93 2023m11
94.01 2023m12
105.32 2024m1
115.50 2024m2
127.58 2024m3
212.32 2024m4
237.54 2024m5
243.18 2024m6
183.76 2024m7
226.07 2024m8
239.24 2024m9
244.88 2024m10
268.96 2024m11
321.49 2024m12
354.79 2025m1
773.41 2025m2
798.95 2025m3
856.42 2025m4
875.98 2025m5
932.72 2025m6
1038.77 2025m7
1281.10 2025m8
1226.01 2025m9

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Figure 3: Data Center Investment.
(a) Short Run
(b) Medium Run
Notes: Panel (a) displays simulated short-run investment based on 1000 simulations. The red dotted line represents data center investment imputed from NIPA data (see Section 2). In panel (b), we simulate through 2027 based on three different scenarios for the level of new plans in the future based on the lagged-level of new plans times a scaling factor (2 in green, 1 in yellow, or 0.25 in red). The shaded areas denote the 5th-95th percentiles.
Source: Authors' calculations using data from Dodge Construction Network.

min_inv max_inv p1_inv p99_inv p5_inv p95_inv p25_inv p75_inv mean_inv p50_inv inv_dc time
1.20 4.33 2.22 4.23 3.21 4.05 3.43 3.88 3.68 3.77 8.18 2023q1
3.28 5.57 3.52 5.39 3.84 5.23 4.30 4.86 4.57 4.60 6.47 2023q2
3.88 6.31 4.15 6.20 4.44 5.95 4.94 5.58 5.25 5.28 4.56 2023q3
8.25 11.93 8.55 11.57 8.85 10.83 9.38 10.13 9.78 9.75 15.59 2023q4
17.23 25.11 17.78 24.18 18.41 23.60 20.13 22.45 21.22 21.23 26.27 2024q1
21.75 30.85 22.95 29.81 23.80 29.08 25.52 27.90 26.62 26.70 37.79 2024q2
30.03 40.75 31.22 39.45 32.32 38.35 34.23 36.81 35.46 35.46 50.54 2024q3
41.41 75.56 45.94 72.38 48.88 68.69 54.20 61.13 58.05 58.28 49.79 2024q4
59.35 102.81 66.98 95.96 71.22 91.47 76.82 85.01 81.10 81.04 85.52 2025q1
82.94 135.95 89.08 126.98 93.50 121.13 101.92 112.62 107.52 107.69 118.04 2025q2
118.90 182.16 124.68 172.15 131.91 165.68 142.30 156.52 149.35 149.40   2025q3
142.03 261.18 149.37 245.20 157.13 230.34 167.30 183.29 178.53 174.89   2025q4
156.23 414.20 175.25 399.53 187.79 382.55 220.80 362.23 300.99 337.91   2026q1
179.57 483.58 215.69 464.69 236.31 449.17 286.19 426.89 367.27 399.44   2026q2

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plo_inv phi_inv mean_inv scenario time
71.22 91.47 81.10 0 2025q1
71.04 91.71 80.81 1 2025q1
71.04 91.71 80.81 2 2025q1
71.04 91.71 80.81 3 2025q1
93.50 121.13 107.52 0 2025q2
94.15 121.01 106.99 1 2025q2
94.15 121.01 106.99 2 2025q2
94.15 121.01 106.99 3 2025q2
131.91 165.68 149.35 0 2025q3
132.67 165.53 148.87 1 2025q3
132.67 165.53 148.87 2 2025q3
132.67 165.53 148.87 3 2025q3
157.13 230.34 178.53 0 2025q4
156.97 231.18 178.71 1 2025q4
156.97 231.18 178.71 2 2025q4
156.97 231.18 178.71 3 2025q4
187.79 382.55 300.99 0 2026q1
187.41 381.00 299.67 1 2026q1
187.41 381.00 299.67 2 2026q1
187.41 381.00 299.67 3 2026q1
236.31 449.17 367.27 0 2026q2
239.93 448.17 365.11 1 2026q2
239.93 448.17 365.11 2 2026q2
239.93 448.17 365.11 3 2026q2
277.18 494.87 410.06 0 2026q3
284.28 496.27 410.83 1 2026q3
289.38 503.40 416.86 2 2026q3
294.26 515.02 424.17 3 2026q3
262.60 476.91 393.43 0 2026q4
285.81 499.70 413.16 1 2026q4
336.60 551.90 464.04 2 2026q4
391.03 623.03 525.76 3 2026q4
229.90 445.05 361.11 0 2027q1
276.14 488.09 402.97 1 2027q1
377.03 593.21 506.42 2 2027q1
495.53 730.56 631.93 3 2027q1
196.60 409.64 327.37 0 2027q2
264.34 475.04 391.40 1 2027q2
415.84 634.81 547.28 2 2027q2
596.64 839.00 736.42 3 2027q2
153.71 366.80 284.51 0 2027q3
243.58 451.67 370.48 1 2027q3
447.33 667.04 578.83 2 2027q3
691.21 935.45 831.63 3 2027q3
122.52 332.33 251.40 0 2027q4
230.19 438.66 356.81 1 2027q4
481.13 698.69 611.95 2 2027q4
781.24 1022.15 921.20 3 2027q4

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Figure S.1: Investment in data center categories.
Notes: Real investment by quarter for data center structures and high-tech computers & peripheral equipment.
Source: Authors' calculations using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

equip_real cpip_real date
100.38   2015q1
100.72   2015q2
102.52   2015q3
98.02   2015q4
101.36   2016q1
100.15   2016q2
97.57   2016q3
99.59   2016q4
99.99   2017q1
104.41   2017q2
109.96   2017q3
108.76   2017q4
117.55   2018q1
121.57   2018q2
121.08   2018q3
118.33   2018q4
118.54   2019q1
124.92   2019q2
118.46   2019q3
122.31   2019q4
119.68 8.52 2020q1
129.84 7.91 2020q2
134.51 8.27 2020q3
141.71 8.24 2020q4
148.49 8.49 2021q1
147.51 8.15 2021q2
149.75 8.71 2021q3
156.28 8.05 2021q4
161.44 7.95 2022q1
157.19 8.37 2022q2
161.35 8.69 2022q3
152.02 8.63 2022q4
144.23 10.84 2023q1
145.04 11.51 2023q2
143.68 12.89 2023q3
152.69 15.22 2023q4
162.29 16.71 2024q1
172.04 18.91 2024q2
184.08 20.62 2024q3
181.72 22.53 2024q4
217.10 23.18 2025q1
244.80 25.49 2025q2

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Figure S.2: Time-to-Start CDF.
Notes: Distribution of months from plan-to-start across all projects with observed plan and start phases.
Source: Authors' calculations using data from Dodge Construction Network.

cum_share time_plan_to_start
2.97 1
9.34 2
14.48 3
23.29 4
36.11 5
40.43 6
46.92 7
54.47 8
64.36 9
67.36 10
68.87 11
72.65 12
74.69 13
75.68 14
77.76 15
78.32 16
80.51 17
83.16 18
83.53 19
84.32 20
85.15 21
85.18 22
85.50 23
85.57 24
85.77 25
86.34 26
86.77 27
87.81 28
87.94 29
87.99 30
88.37 31
88.52 32
88.80 33
89.25 34
89.30 35
90.15 36
90.69 37
90.77 38
90.78 39
91.20 40
92.27 41
92.84 42
93.31 43
93.51 44
94.07 45
94.07 46
94.12 48
94.13 51
94.21 52
94.70 53
95.53 54
96.11 57
96.53 58
96.75 60
96.81 62
96.84 64
96.87 68
97.11 72
97.20 75
97.25 76
97.26 79
97.26 81
97.35 87
97.44 88
97.46 89
97.55 90
97.62 91
98.20 94
98.79 96
98.79 97
98.86 101
99.79 107
99.91 109
99.94 123
100 154

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Figure S.3: Distribution of Short-Run Simulated Investment Volume.
(a) Density
(b) CDF
Notes: Values are based on 1000 simulations of short-run investment. The vertical black lines denote the mean (solid) and median (dashed).
Source: Authors' calculations using data from Dodge Construction Network.

sim_id plan_investment cdf
1 506.20 0.05
2 583.50 0.17
3 1033.90 0.89
4 1050.10 0.95
5 1029.20 0.87
6 1017.10 0.81
7 971.10 0.59
8 1004.90 0.75
9 955.10 0.54
10 959.10 0.55
11 906.90 0.40
12 932.40 0.48
13 1056.20 0.96
14 610.20 0.23
15 1041.20 0.91
16 973.70 0.61
17 1012.50 0.78
18 981.70 0.64
19 455.30 0.01
20 1020.90 0.83
21 686.70 0.32
22 935 0.49
23 1059.30 0.96
24 1023.30 0.83
25 1046.10 0.93
26 520.60 0.07
27 949.50 0.53
28 892.80 0.37
29 627.50 0.26
30 565.40 0.13
31 1002.90 0.74
32 514.10 0.06
33 925.90 0.46
34 858.70 0.33
35 595.80 0.19
36 929.20 0.47
37 1029 0.86
38 506.80 0.05
39 961.60 0.56
40 455.60 0.01
41 1016.70 0.80
42 936.50 0.49
43 946.20 0.52
44 1044.90 0.93
45 947.10 0.52
46 1004.10 0.75
47 924.50 0.45
48 1041.70 0.91
49 478.50 0.02
50 1039.40 0.90
51 1027.40 0.86
52 940.90 0.50
53 473.70 0.02
54 1046.60 0.94
55 927.40 0.46
56 531.50 0.08
57 616.10 0.24
58 924.60 0.45
59 1009.50 0.77
60 1020.80 0.82
61 1020.80 0.83
62 991.80 0.69
63 1042.50 0.92
64 557.80 0.12
65 467.80 0.01
66 916.20 0.43
67 608.60 0.22
68 891.80 0.37
69 1005.80 0.76
70 891.50 0.37
71 1053.60 0.95
72 997 0.72
73 1008.80 0.77
74 1046.40 0.93
75 1021 0.83
76 556.60 0.12
77 578.80 0.15
78 1001.60 0.74
79 512.10 0.05
80 632.90 0.27
81 895.10 0.38
82 662.90 0.31
83 584.70 0.17
84 973.60 0.60
85 628.10 0.27
86 921.90 0.44
87 633.20 0.28
88 999.80 0.73
89 903.70 0.40
90 898.10 0.38
91 891.80 0.37
92 634.90 0.28
93 921.10 0.44
94 857 0.33
95 583.30 0.17
96 448.10 0.01
97 969.10 0.58
98 929.40 0.47
99 1015.60 0.80
100 946.30 0.52
101 899.40 0.39
102 902.90 0.39
103 1055.50 0.96
104 616.30 0.24
105 1008 0.76
106 938.50 0.49
107 592.80 0.19
108 1054.30 0.96
109 879.30 0.35
110 982.80 0.65
111 557.10 0.12
112 674 0.31
113 864.60 0.34
114 628.90 0.27
115 992.50 0.70
116 868.30 0.34
117 984.60 0.65
118 998.40 0.73
119 490.80 0.03
120 993.50 0.70
121 972.90 0.60
122 519.90 0.07
123 1030.30 0.87
124 1032.50 0.88
125 1064.70 0.98
126 919.10 0.44
127 546.90 0.10
128 928.80 0.47
129 981 0.64
130 1056.10 0.96
131 567.50 0.13
132 1019.20 0.82
133 866.90 0.34
134 1030.50 0.87
135 487.90 0.03
136 897.80 0.38
137 576.20 0.15
138 655.10 0.31
139 898.30 0.39
140 534.10 0.08
141 973.50 0.60
142 1037.40 0.90
143 523.70 0.07
144 1053.30 0.95
145 501 0.04
146 924.70 0.45
147 1058.60 0.96
148 541.20 0.09
149 1033.40 0.88
150 669.80 0.31
151 985.80 0.66
152 545.50 0.10
153 1046.30 0.93
154 970.60 0.59
155 1049.70 0.95
156 989.10 0.68
157 504.40 0.04
158 991.10 0.69
159 534.30 0.09
160 525.30 0.08
161 1033 0.88
162 1038.20 0.90
163 596.80 0.19
164 908.40 0.41
165 906.40 0.40
166 979.70 0.63
167 487.40 0.03
168 988.10 0.68
169 1021.80 0.83
170 995.90 0.71
171 1021.30 0.83
172 522.50 0.07
173 521.60 0.07
174 1020.20 0.82
175 926.90 0.46
176 939.30 0.50
177 998.20 0.73
178 1017.50 0.81
179 989.10 0.68
180 983.70 0.65
181 536.90 0.09
182 973.40 0.60
183 554.10 0.11
184 1031.50 0.88
185 981.90 0.64
186 994.40 0.70
187 825.30 0.32
188 621.90 0.25
189 604.60 0.21
190 553.80 0.11
191 1025.10 0.84
192 998 0.73
193 993.80 0.70
194 1014 0.79
195 444.70 0.00
196 1012.10 0.78
197 912.90 0.42
198 1016.60 0.80
199 952 0.53
200 1010.70 0.78
201 468 0.02
202 879.10 0.35
203 572.90 0.14
204 907.50 0.40
205 930.50 0.47
206 922.70 0.45
207 941.70 0.50
208 1019.10 0.82
209 974.80 0.62
210 987 0.67
211 641.90 0.29
212 580.50 0.16
213 555.70 0.12
214 982.80 0.65
215 1063 0.97
216 617.60 0.24
217 916.90 0.43
218 618 0.24
219 992 0.69
220 583.40 0.17
221 884.80 0.36
222 586.80 0.18
223 569.60 0.14
224 962.60 0.56
225 975.40 0.62
226 1016.50 0.80
227 1039.60 0.91
228 524.70 0.07
229 602.90 0.20
230 867.20 0.34
231 1014.10 0.79
232 694.60 0.32
233 1047.30 0.94
234 857.50 0.33
235 967.40 0.58
236 973.80 0.61
237 993.50 0.70
238 1063.10 0.97
239 643.60 0.29
240 519.70 0.06
241 516.80 0.06
242 1046.20 0.93
243 598.70 0.20
244 984.70 0.66
245 1053.90 0.96
246 629.40 0.27
247 947.90 0.52
248 614 0.23
249 594.10 0.19
250 570.90 0.14
251 553.10 0.11
252 956.90 0.55
253 979.60 0.63
254 952 0.53
255 887.80 0.36
256 879.40 0.35
257 1016.70 0.80
258 974.70 0.61
259 982.90 0.65
260 974.40 0.61
261 1035 0.89
262 633.50 0.28
263 997.70 0.72
264 950.90 0.53
265 1067.50 0.98
266 609.40 0.23
267 663.80 0.31
268 940.10 0.50
269 1035.30 0.89
270 871.40 0.34
271 951.80 0.53
272 587.90 0.18
273 530.70 0.08
274 993.30 0.70
275 989.30 0.68
276 1036.90 0.90
277 894.40 0.38
278 956.30 0.54
279 947.70 0.52
280 959.10 0.55
281 519.70 0.06
282 973.70 0.60
283 1000.70 0.74
284 945.80 0.52
285 901.60 0.39
286 974.50 0.61
287 898.20 0.38
288 530.40 0.08
289 931.60 0.48
290 915.90 0.43
291 597.10 0.19
292 428.60 0.00
293 896.90 0.38
294 536.40 0.09
295 918.30 0.43
296 969.30 0.58
297 1036.10 0.89
298 976.20 0.62
299 873.10 0.34
300 918.40 0.43
301 579.20 0.16
302 867.80 0.34
303 1026.80 0.85
304 995.40 0.71
305 490.10 0.03
306 625.30 0.26
307 1025.20 0.84
308 597.30 0.19
309 642.10 0.29
310 956.60 0.54
311 550.10 0.10
312 915.20 0.42
313 1066.20 0.98
314 1031.10 0.87
315 985.30 0.66
316 1064.60 0.98
317 928.60 0.46
318 872.10 0.34
319 1071.30 0.99
320 619.70 0.25
321 527.70 0.08
322 976.10 0.62
323 1048 0.94
324 584.90 0.17
325 572.10 0.14
326 919.70 0.44
327 989.60 0.68
328 1004.60 0.75
329 891.20 0.37
330 938 0.49
331 626.60 0.26
332 1006.60 0.76
333 411.60 0.00
334 971.60 0.59
335 1005.80 0.76
336 944.60 0.51
337 979.60 0.63
338 963.40 0.57
339 603.40 0.20
340 486.90 0.03
341 572.30 0.14
342 910.60 0.41
343 589.90 0.18
344 497.90 0.04
345 603.30 0.20
346 934.30 0.49
347 1080.70 0.99
348 552.30 0.11
349 924.20 0.45
350 535.20 0.09
351 527.90 0.08
352 609.20 0.23
353 501.90 0.04
354 935.40 0.49
355 913.20 0.42
356 508 0.05
357 956.70 0.54
358 540.80 0.09
359 1000.90 0.74
360 552.50 0.11
361 1015.10 0.79
362 981.50 0.64
363 573.50 0.15
364 987.20 0.67
365 970.80 0.59
366 635.90 0.28
367 995.80 0.71
368 1059.30 0.97
369 911.10 0.41
370 1000.80 0.74
371 511.10 0.05
372 518.50 0.06
373 1031.20 0.88
374 595.70 0.19
375 538.70 0.09
376 978.60 0.63
377 842.10 0.33
378 561.50 0.13
379 818.50 0.32
380 882.20 0.35
381 826.50 0.32
382 979.30 0.63
383 1025.60 0.85
384 506.90 0.05
385 493.70 0.03
386 1007.60 0.76
387 1026.60 0.85
388 532.60 0.08
389 588.60 0.18
390 1022.80 0.83
391 570.20 0.14
392 662.60 0.31
393 924.20 0.45
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1000 883.30 0.36

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Figure S.4: Valid Phase Transitions.
Note: Solid arrows indicate allowable transitions. The dashed arrows from entry represents the conceptual point at which a project enters the database, rather than an observed phase.

This state diagram illustrates the valid transitions between five project phases: Entry, Plan, Start, Complete, and Cancel. Valid transitions (shown as solid arrows): Entry to Plan Plan to Start Plan to Cancel Start to Complete Start to Cancel Conceptual entry points (shown as dashed arrows): Entry to Plan Entry to Start Entry to Complete Note: Solid arrows indicate allowable transitions. The dashed arrows from Entry represent the conceptual point at which a project enters the database, rather than an observed phase.

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