Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2026-003

Firm Dynamics, Inflation, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

Accessible version of figures

Figure 1: Production structure in the model

Figure shows a flowchart describing the production structure in the model. There are two columns, denoted "Production steps" and "Notes." Production steps column shows Labor flowing into Intermediate Goods Producers flowing into Wholesale Producer flowing into Retailers flowing into Final Goods Producer flowing into the Final Good. The notes column shows: - To the right of "Intermediate goods producers": Heterogeneous producers, entry and exit - To the right of "Wholesale producer": Aggregates intermediate goods - To the right of "Retailers": Identical producers, sticky prices - To the right of "Final goods producer": Aggregates retail goods into C

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Figure 2: Distribution of selected producer-level variables
Note: Each panel shows a histogram of a simulated producer-level variable in steady state. Source: Author's calculations.

Age Model Exit Rate BDS Exit Rate Model Employment BDS Employment Model Productivity
0 15.47   7.77 8.40 0.70
1 13.92 23.60 9.25 10.60 0.78
2 12.76 17.30 10.97 11.80 0.86
3 11.87 15.10 12.76 12.50 0.92
4 11.18 12.90 14.51 14.10 0.98
5 10.64 12.10 16.17 15.90 1.03
6 10.21   17.70   1.07
7 9.86   19.09   1.11
8 9.58 10.30 20.33 16.60 1.14
9 9.35   21.43   1.17
10 9.17   22.39   1.19
11 9.02   23.22   1.21
12 8.89   23.94   1.23
13 8.79 8.50 24.55 17.20 1.24
14 8.71   25.08   1.26
15 8.64   25.52   1.26

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Figure 3: Producer lifecycle in the model
Note: Each panel shows the average of a simulated producer-level variable conditional on producer age. Points marked with an "x" show the same moments from the Census Bureau's Business Dynamics Dataset, 2007. Source: Author's calculations and U.S. Census Bureau.

Productivity Bin Productivity Probability Labor Bin Labor Probaility Revenue Bin Revenue Probability
0 0.08 0 0.80 0 0.88
0.37 0.26 26.80 0.14 15.40 0.08
0.74 0.26 53.60 0.04 30.80 0.02
1.10 0.23 80.40 0.01 46.20 0.01
1.47 0.07 107.20 0.00 61.60 0.00
1.84 0.05 134 0.00 77 0.00
2.21 0.03 160.80 0.00 92.40 0.00
2.58 0 187.60 0.00 107.80 0.00
2.94 0.01 214.40 0.00 123.20 0.00
3.31 0 241.20 0.00 138.60 0.00
3.68 0.01 268 0.00 154 0.00
4.05 0 294.80 0.00 169.40 0.00
4.42 0.00 321.60 0.00 184.80 0.00
4.78 0 348.40 0.00 200.20 0.00
5.15 0.00 375.20 0.00 215.60 0.00
5.52 0 402 0.00 231 0.00
5.89 0 428.80 0.00 246.40 0.00
6.26 0 455.60 0.00 261.80 0.00
6.62 0.00 482.40 0.00 277.20 0.00
6.99 0 509.20 0.00 292.60 0.00
7.36 0 536 0.00 308 0.00
7.73 0 562.80 0.00 323.40 0.00
8.10 0.00 589.60 0.00 338.80 0.00
8.46 0 616.40 0 354.20 0.00
8.83 0 643.20 0 369.60 0
9.20 0 670 0 385 0.00
9.57 0 696.80 0.00 400.40 0
9.94 0.00 723.60 0 415.80 0.00
10.30 0 750.40 0 431.20 0
10.67 0 777.20 0 446.60 0.00
11.04 0 804 0 462 0.00
11.41 0 830.80 0.00 477.40 0
11.78 0 857.60 0 492.80 0
12.14 0.00 884.40 0.00 508.20 0.00
12.51 0 911.20 0 523.60 0
12.88 0 938 0 539 0
13.25 0 964.80 0 554.40 0
13.62 0 991.60 0 569.80 0
13.98 0 1018.40 0 585.20 0.00
14.35 0 1045.20 0 600.60 0
14.72 0.00 1072 0 616 0.00
15.09 0 1098.80 0 631.40 0
15.46 0 1125.60 0 646.80 0
15.82 0 1152.40 0 662.20 0
16.19 0 1179.20 0 677.60 0
16.56 0 1206 0 693 0
16.93 0 1232.80 0 708.40 0
17.30 0 1259.60 0 723.80 0
17.66 0 1286.40 0 739.20 0
18.03 0.00 1313.20 0.00 754.60 0.00

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Figure 4: producer dynamics in the BED
(a) Establishment count
(b) Establishment births and deaths
Note: Each panel shows the time series of a variable used in the analysis in this paper. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics BED and QCEW data. Author's calculations.

date bed_estabs_th births deaths
1993q1 6537    
1993q2 6558 181 160
1993q3 6601 191 148
1993q4 6629 182 154
1994q1 6650 185 164
1994q2 6684 196 162
1994q3 6729 201 156
1994q4 6747 192 174
1995q1 6783 197 161
1995q2 6809 193 167
1995q3 6834 193 168
1995q4 6855 195 174
1996q1 6886 204 173
1996q2 6913 198 171
1996q3 6944 205 174
1996q4 6985 216 175
1997q1 7016 211 180
1997q2 7051 210 175
1997q3 7085 207 173
1997q4 7096 200 189
1998q1 7132 222 186
1998q2 7185 226 173
1998q3 7209 209 185
1998q4 7224 203 188
1999q1 7243 213 194
1999q2 7270 219 192
1999q3 7285 209 194
1999q4 7320 224 189
2000q1 7351 227 196
2000q2 7380 218 189
2000q3 7393 222 209
2000q4 7404 215 204
2001q1 7410 220 214
2001q2 7415 217 212
2001q3 7414 218 219
2001q4 7415 209 208
2002q1 7435 219 199
2002q2 7467 228 196
2002q3 7491 217 193
2002q4 7507 216 200
2003q1 7528 215 194
2003q2 7546 212 194
2003q3 7565 210 191
2003q4 7592 218 191
2004q1 7621 222 193
2004q2 7643 218 196
2004q3 7671 224 196
2004q4 7706 226 191
2005q1 7737 227 196
2005q2 7777 232 192
2005q3 7818 236 195
2005q4 7854 236 200
2006q1 7895 236 195
2006q2 7922 233 206
2006q3 7936 224 210
2006q4 7965 236 207
2007q1 7992 232 205
2007q2 8002 225 215
2007q3 8019 233 216
2007q4 8029 228 218
2008q1 8031 226 224
2008q2 8014 221 238
2008q3 7997 216 233
2008q4 7955 211 253
2009q1 7905 197 247
2009q2 7868 201 238
2009q3 7833 192 227
2009q4 7817 202 218
2010q1 7799 193 211
2010q2 7790 193 202
2010q3 7793 207 204
2010q4 7808 216 201
2011q1 7812 204 200
2011q2 7817 210 205
2011q3 7827 206 196
2011q4 7843 214 198
2012q1 7891 236 188
2012q2 7914 217 194
2012q3 7928 210 196
2012q4 7963 218 183
2013q1 7975 205 193
2013q2 7982 222 215
2013q3 8006 219 195
2013q4 8034 215 187
2014q1 8064 220 190
2014q2 8081 221 204
2014q3 8107 225 199
2014q4 8133 224 198
2015q1 8159 233 207
2015q2 8182 234 211
2015q3 8218 243 207
2015q4 8256 247 209
2016q1 8288 236 204
2016q2 8316 241 213
2016q3 8340 238 214
2016q4 8361 238 217
2017q1 8400 242 203
2017q2 8417 240 223
2017q3 8436 244 225
2017q4 8466 246 216
2018q1 8499 248 215
2018q2 8534 263 228
2018q3 8553 250 231
2018q4 8580 249 222
2019q1 8620 260 220
2019q2 8637 257 240
2019q3 8657 251 231
2019q4 8692 269 234

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date bed_estabs_th births deaths
1993q1 6537    
1993q2 6558 181 160
1993q3 6601 191 148
1993q4 6629 182 154
1994q1 6650 185 164
1994q2 6684 196 162
1994q3 6729 201 156
1994q4 6747 192 174
1995q1 6783 197 161
1995q2 6809 193 167
1995q3 6834 193 168
1995q4 6855 195 174
1996q1 6886 204 173
1996q2 6913 198 171
1996q3 6944 205 174
1996q4 6985 216 175
1997q1 7016 211 180
1997q2 7051 210 175
1997q3 7085 207 173
1997q4 7096 200 189
1998q1 7132 222 186
1998q2 7185 226 173
1998q3 7209 209 185
1998q4 7224 203 188
1999q1 7243 213 194
1999q2 7270 219 192
1999q3 7285 209 194
1999q4 7320 224 189
2000q1 7351 227 196
2000q2 7380 218 189
2000q3 7393 222 209
2000q4 7404 215 204
2001q1 7410 220 214
2001q2 7415 217 212
2001q3 7414 218 219
2001q4 7415 209 208
2002q1 7435 219 199
2002q2 7467 228 196
2002q3 7491 217 193
2002q4 7507 216 200
2003q1 7528 215 194
2003q2 7546 212 194
2003q3 7565 210 191
2003q4 7592 218 191
2004q1 7621 222 193
2004q2 7643 218 196
2004q3 7671 224 196
2004q4 7706 226 191
2005q1 7737 227 196
2005q2 7777 232 192
2005q3 7818 236 195
2005q4 7854 236 200
2006q1 7895 236 195
2006q2 7922 233 206
2006q3 7936 224 210
2006q4 7965 236 207
2007q1 7992 232 205
2007q2 8002 225 215
2007q3 8019 233 216
2007q4 8029 228 218
2008q1 8031 226 224
2008q2 8014 221 238
2008q3 7997 216 233
2008q4 7955 211 253
2009q1 7905 197 247
2009q2 7868 201 238
2009q3 7833 192 227
2009q4 7817 202 218
2010q1 7799 193 211
2010q2 7790 193 202
2010q3 7793 207 204
2010q4 7808 216 201
2011q1 7812 204 200
2011q2 7817 210 205
2011q3 7827 206 196
2011q4 7843 214 198
2012q1 7891 236 188
2012q2 7914 217 194
2012q3 7928 210 196
2012q4 7963 218 183
2013q1 7975 205 193
2013q2 7982 222 215
2013q3 8006 219 195
2013q4 8034 215 187
2014q1 8064 220 190
2014q2 8081 221 204
2014q3 8107 225 199
2014q4 8133 224 198
2015q1 8159 233 207
2015q2 8182 234 211
2015q3 8218 243 207
2015q4 8256 247 209
2016q1 8288 236 204
2016q2 8316 241 213
2016q3 8340 238 214
2016q4 8361 238 217
2017q1 8400 242 203
2017q2 8417 240 223
2017q3 8436 244 225
2017q4 8466 246 216
2018q1 8499 248 215
2018q2 8534 263 228
2018q3 8553 250 231
2018q4 8580 249 222
2019q1 8620 260 220
2019q2 8637 257 240
2019q3 8657 251 231
2019q4 8692 269 234

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Figure 5: The effect of a monetary policy shock on the log number of establishments
Note: This figure shows the dynamic effect of a 100bps contractionary shock to the federal funds rate on the log number of establishments. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics BED and QCEW data and Bauer and Swanson, 2022 shocks. Author's calculations. Reported error bands show 68 percent and 90 percent confidence intervals.

Years u2 d2 u d b
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0.10 -0.33 0.02 -0.24 -0.11
2 0.07 -0.43 -0.03 -0.33 -0.18
3 0.17 -0.57 0.03 -0.42 -0.20
4 0.20 -1.03 -0.04 -0.79 -0.41
5 0.23 -1.18 -0.05 -0.90 -0.48
6 0.14 -1.58 -0.19 -1.24 -0.72
7 0.11 -2.20 -0.34 -1.75 -1.04
8 -0.09 -2.44 -0.55 -1.98 -1.26
9 -0.20 -2.59 -0.67 -2.12 -1.39
10 -0.26 -2.99 -0.79 -2.45 -1.62
11 -0.33 -3.08 -0.87 -2.54 -1.70
12 -0.67 -3.16 -1.16 -2.67 -1.92
13 -0.46 -3.35 -1.03 -2.78 -1.90
14 -0.67 -3.67 -1.26 -3.08 -2.17
15 -0.90 -3.70 -1.45 -3.15 -2.30
16 -0.75 -4.05 -1.40 -3.41 -2.40
17 -0.93 -4.35 -1.60 -3.68 -2.64
18 -0.96 -4.25 -1.60 -3.60 -2.60
19 -0.73 -4.41 -1.46 -3.69 -2.57
20 -0.85 -4.61 -1.59 -3.87 -2.73
21 -0.81 -4.40 -1.51 -3.70 -2.61
22 -0.55 -4.56 -1.34 -3.77 -2.56
23 -0.77 -4.81 -1.56 -4.02 -2.79
24 -0.53 -4.44 -1.29 -3.67 -2.48
25 -0.11 -4.27 -0.92 -3.45 -2.19
26 -0.24 -4.38 -1.05 -3.57 -2.31
27 0.04 -4.15 -0.78 -3.33 -2.05
28 0.52 -3.95 -0.36 -3.08 -1.72
29 0.33 -4.13 -0.54 -3.25 -1.90
30 0.34 -4.04 -0.52 -3.19 -1.85
31 0.59 -4.09 -0.33 -3.17 -1.75
32 0.53 -4.10 -0.38 -3.20 -1.79
33 0.54 -3.97 -0.34 -3.08 -1.71
34 0.75 -3.87 -0.15 -2.96 -1.56
35 0.69 -3.88 -0.21 -2.99 -1.60
36 1.01 -3.44 0.14 -2.57 -1.21
37 1.26 -3.38 0.35 -2.47 -1.06
38 1.36 -3.37 0.44 -2.44 -1.00
39 1.38 -3.19 0.49 -2.29 -0.90
40 1.37 -3.18 0.48 -2.29 -0.91
41 1.35 -3.25 0.45 -2.34 -0.95
42 0.99 -3.55 0.10 -2.66 -1.28
43 1.04 -3.61 0.13 -2.70 -1.28
44 1.19 -3.66 0.24 -2.71 -1.23
45 0.98 -3.90 0.02 -2.94 -1.46
46 1.51 -3.61 0.51 -2.61 -1.05
47 1.98 -3.45 0.91 -2.39 -0.74
1.99 -3.50 0.91 -2.42 -0.76
2.58 -3.19 1.45 -2.06 -0.30
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Figure 6: The entry and exit margin response to the monetary policy shock
Note: These figures show the dynamic effect of a 100bps contractionary shock to the federal funds rate on the log number of establishment births and deaths. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics BED and QCEW data and Bauer and Swanson, 2022 shocks. Author's calculations. Reported error bands show 68 percent and 90 percent confidence intervals.

Years u2 d2 u d b
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 6.73 -4.88 4.46 -2.60 0.93
2 8.85 -3.42 6.45 -1.02 2.71
3 5.83 -9.46 2.84 -6.46 -1.81
4 8.59 -8.67 5.21 -5.28 -0.04
5 9.43 -8.78 5.86 -5.21 0.32
6 14.60 -3.94 10.97 -0.30 5.33
7 19.97 -3.03 15.46 1.48 8.47
8 23.16 3.68 19.34 7.50 13.42
9 20.57 1.26 16.78 5.04 10.91
10 18.09 -0.60 14.43 3.07 8.75
11 12.91 -7.21 8.96 -3.27 2.85
12 15.15 -11.26 9.97 -6.08 1.95
13 5.57 -18.71 0.81 -13.95 -6.57
14 10.93 -11.58 6.52 -7.17 -0.32
15 8.24 -16.95 3.30 -12.01 -4.35
16 13.22 -13.92 7.90 -8.60 -0.35
17 12.11 -13.77 7.03 -8.70 -0.83
18 12.35 -12.24 7.53 -7.42 0.05
19 9.20 -15.37 4.39 -10.55 -3.08
20 9.52 -15.37 4.64 -10.49 -2.93
21 10.78 -16.35 5.46 -11.03 -2.78
22 10.32 -15.20 5.32 -10.19 -2.44
23 9.30 -16.03 4.34 -11.06 -3.36
24 9.45 -17.41 4.18 -12.14 -3.98
25 3.46 -23.98 -1.92 -18.60 -10.26
26 1.15 -27.45 -4.46 -21.85 -13.15
27 -0.12 -27.54 -5.50 -22.17 -13.83
28 1.61 -23.51 -3.32 -18.58 -10.95
29 3.50 -21.13 -1.33 -16.30 -8.81
30 6.40 -16.95 1.82 -12.37 -5.28
31 19.02 -9.07 13.51 -3.56 4.97
32 13.51 -11.73 8.56 -6.78 0.89
33 14.11 -13.09 8.78 -7.76 0.51
34 9.83 -14.52 5.05 -9.75 -2.35
35 11.12 -13.02 6.39 -8.29 -0.95
36 6.54 -13.73 2.56 -9.76 -3.60
37 4.60 -15.77 0.61 -11.78 -5.59
38 0.71 -20.77 -3.50 -16.56 -10.03
39 2.70 -19.67 -1.68 -15.28 -8.48
40 7.32 -17.40 2.47 -12.56 -5.04
41 9.47 -16.53 4.37 -11.43 -3.53
42 10.46 -13.78 5.70 -9.03 -1.66
43 5.18 -17.03 0.83 -12.67 -5.92
44 4.02 -15.85 0.13 -11.95 -5.91
45 2.40 -17.29 -1.46 -13.43 -7.45
46 6.92 -14.86 2.65 -10.59 -3.97
47 6.31 -16.97 1.75 -12.41 -5.33
4.22 -20.72 -0.67 -15.83 -8.25
1.15 -27.87 -4.54 -22.18 -13.36
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Years u2 d2 u d b
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 1.86 -6.02 0.31 -4.48 -2.08
2 2.25 -6.98 0.44 -5.17 -2.36
3 1.87 -12.28 -0.90 -9.50 -5.20
4 1.48 -15.17 -1.78 -11.90 -6.84
5 2.38 -14.10 -0.85 -10.87 -5.86
6 1.83 -17.14 -1.89 -13.42 -7.65
7 2.92 -17.93 -1.17 -13.85 -7.51
8 0.06 -19.05 -3.69 -15.30 -9.50
9 0.31 -16.96 -3.08 -13.58 -8.33
10 0.61 -19.07 -3.25 -15.21 -9.23
11 0.49 -19.13 -3.36 -15.29 -9.32
12 -2.93 -22.48 -6.77 -18.65 -12.71
13 -2.89 -20.33 -6.31 -16.91 -11.61
14 -4.84 -20.54 -7.92 -17.47 -12.69
15 -4.79 -22.33 -8.23 -18.89 -13.56
16 -2.70 -24.51 -6.97 -20.23 -13.60
17 -3.09 -24.30 -7.24 -20.14 -13.69
18 3.37 -18.56 -0.93 -14.26 -7.60
19 3.23 -17.32 -0.80 -13.29 -7.05
20 4.40 -15.03 0.59 -11.22 -5.32
21 6.62 -11.87 2.99 -8.25 -2.63
22 7.26 -12.43 3.40 -8.57 -2.58
23 4.05 -14.15 0.48 -10.58 -5.05
24 9.82 -9.07 6.12 -5.37 0.38
25 11.35 -6.16 7.92 -2.73 2.60
26 11.13 -6.23 7.73 -2.83 2.45
27 9.47 -9.17 5.82 -5.51 0.15
28 13.58 -6.55 9.63 -2.61 3.51
29 13.04 -7.32 9.05 -3.32 2.86
30 7.79 -11.30 4.05 -7.55 -1.75
31 10.10 -10.57 6.05 -6.52 -0.23
32 9.77 -9.47 6.00 -5.70 0.15
33 10.59 -9.57 6.64 -5.61 0.51
34 7.49 -10.80 3.91 -7.21 -1.65
35 9.48 -10.23 5.61 -6.36 -0.37
36 13.73 -5.59 9.94 -1.80 4.07
37 12.45 -5.31 8.97 -1.83 3.57
38 14.68 -5.20 10.78 -1.30 4.74
39 14.75 -7.57 10.38 -3.19 3.59
40 18.25 -7.13 13.28 -2.16 5.56
41 16.75 -6.35 12.22 -1.82 5.20
42 9.04 -11.48 5.02 -7.46 -1.22
43 7.79 -11.41 4.03 -7.65 -1.81
44 7.79 -14.29 3.46 -9.96 -3.25
45 6.16 -15.12 1.98 -10.95 -4.48
46 12.07 -11.77 7.40 -7.09 0.15
47 16.92 -8.29 11.98 -3.35 4.32
19.52 -7.30 14.26 -2.04 6.11
22.81 -6.38 17.09 -0.66 8.21
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Figure 7: producer dynamics in the model following a monetary shock
Note: This figure show the dynamic effect of a 100bps contractionary shock to the federal funds rate on the log number of establishments, births, and deaths in the model. Source: Author's calculations.

V1 Mass_Producers Entrant_Mass Exiter_Mass
0 -0.01 -0.06 0.07
1 -0.02 -0.03 0.04
2 -0.02 -0.00 0.00
3 -0.02 0.01 -0.01
4 -0.02 0.01 -0.02
5 -0.02 0.02 -0.01
6 -0.01 0.02 -0.01
7 -0.01 0.01 -0.01
8 -0.01 0.01 -0.01
9 -0.01 0.01 -0.00
10 -0.00 0.01 -0.00
11 -0.00 0.01 -0.00
12 -0.00 0.01 -0.00
13 -0.00 0.01 0.00
14 -0.00 0.00 0.00
15 -0.00 0.00 0.00
16 0.00 0.00 0.00
17 0.00 0.00 0.00
18 0.00 0.00 0.00
19 0.00 0.00 0.00
20 0.00 0.00 0.00
21 0.00 0.00 0.00
22 0.00 0.00 0.00
23 0.00 0.00 0.00
24 0.00 0.00 0.00
25 0.00 0.00 0.00
26 0.00 0.00 0.00
27 0.00 -0.00 0.00
28 0.00 -0.00 0.00
29 0.00 -0.00 0.00

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Figure 8: Business dynamics during the Great Recession
(a) Establishments per capita
(b) New establishments per capita
(c) Exiting establishments per capita
(d) Establishments per capita across 6 recessions
Note: Each panel depicts the path of a variable relative to its value in 2007. Panel A: Establishments per capita. Panel B: Entering establishments per capita. Panel C: Exiting establishments per capita. Panel D: Establishments per capita. Source: Establishments data come from the US Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics Database. Population data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Variable: POPTHM.

V1 Year Establishments Per Capita, relative to 2007
1 1978 -16.64
2 1979 -14.15
3 1980 -13.81
4 1981 -13.45
5 1982 -14.27
6 1983 -13.11
7 1984 -10.01
8 1985 -9.26
9 1986 -7.65
10 1987 -6.38
11 1988 -4.75
12 1989 -3.65
13 1990 -3.15
14 1991 -3.84
15 1992 -4.99
16 1993 -5.06
17 1994 -4.34
18 1995 -3.28
19 1996 -3.17
20 1997 -3.10
21 1998 -2.42
22 1999 -2.62
23 2000 -2.77
24 2001 -3.25
25 2002 -3.24
26 2003 -3.10
27 2004 -2.37
28 2005 -1.64
29 2006 -0.17
30 2007 0
31 2008 -1.53
32 2009 -4.39
33 2010 -6.22
34 2011 -7.06
35 2012 -7.15
36 2013 -7.32
37 2014 -7.04
38 2015 -6.58
39 2016 -5.53
40 2017 -5.58
41 2018 -5.74
42 2019 -5.18
43 2020 -5.08
44 2021 -4.69
45 2022 -3.47

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V1 Year Entrants Per Capita, relative to 2007
1 1978 7.17
2 1979 2.07
3 1980 -5.37
4 1981 -4.91
5 1982 -7.87
6 1983 -0.57
7 1984 9.83
8 1985 6.70
9 1986 9.85
10 1987 12.96
11 1988 11.83
12 1989 8.74
13 1990 4.18
14 1991 1.44
15 1992 -5.82
16 1993 -7.12
17 1994 -3.51
18 1995 -1.20
19 1996 -3.09
20 1997 0.68
21 1998 -5.28
22 1999 -8.01
23 2000 -10.56
24 2001 -9.58
25 2002 -1.57
26 2003 -5.79
27 2004 -4.62
28 2005 -2.97
29 2006 5.47
30 2007 0
31 2008 -13.66
32 2009 -26.11
33 2010 -26.40
34 2011 -23.63
35 2012 -22.84
36 2013 -24.98
37 2014 -24.04
38 2015 -22.31
39 2016 -20.07
40 2017 -24.64
41 2018 -27.46
42 2019 -25.16
43 2020 -24.41
44 2021 -12.45
45 2022 -5.29

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V1 Year Exiters Per Capita, relative to 2007
1 1978 -12.93
2 1979 -15.25
3 1980 -6.70
4 1981 -5.98
5 1982 1.91
6 1983 -6.59
7 1984 -11.34
8 1985 4.25
9 1986 0.53
10 1987 6.88
11 1988 3.41
12 1989 2.60
13 1990 -0.33
14 1991 5.70
15 1992 2.05
16 1993 -7.64
17 1994 -9.16
18 1995 -11.37
19 1996 -8.36
20 1997 0.44
21 1998 -8.55
22 1999 -6.29
23 2000 -8.05
24 2001 -3.99
25 2002 3.13
26 2003 -5.27
27 2004 -9.60
28 2005 -7.76
29 2006 -5.75
30 2007 0
31 2008 2.24
32 2009 6.73
33 2010 -5.50
34 2011 -12.74
35 2012 -19.49
36 2013 -20.99
37 2014 -24.84
38 2015 -24.93
39 2016 -28.97
40 2017 -20.61
41 2018 -22.68
42 2019 -26.61
43 2020 -17.67
44 2021 -9.04
45 2022 -13.29

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V1 Year 2007 Recession 1980 Recession 1981 Recession 1990 Recession 2001 Recession 2019 Recession
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 -1.53 0.36 -0.82 -0.69 0.01 0.11
3 3 -4.39 -0.45 0.34 -1.84 0.14 0.49
4 4 -6.22 0.70 3.44 -1.91 0.88 1.71
5 5 -7.06 3.80 4.19 -1.19 1.60  
6 6 -7.15 4.55 5.80 -0.14 3.07  
7 7 -7.32 6.16 7.07 -0.02 3.25  

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Figure 9: Shock to the cost of entry with a fixed real interest rate

V1 Entry rate Exit rate Mass of firms Output Employment Intermediate good price Inflation Inflation Labor Productivity
0 0.07 0.11 -0.05 0 0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.65 -0.01
1 0.09 0.11 -0.07 0 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.46 -0.01
2 0.11 0.11 -0.07 0 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.37 -0.01
3 0.12 0.11 -0.06 0 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.33 -0.01
4 0.12 0.11 -0.04 0 0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.31 -0.02
5 0.12 0.11 -0.03 0 0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.29 -0.02
6 0.12 0.11 -0.02 0 0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.27 -0.02
7 0.12 0.11 -0.02 0 0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.26 -0.02
8 0.12 0.11 -0.02 0 0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.25 -0.02
9 0.11 0.11 -0.02 0 0.02 0.00 -0.02 0.23 -0.02
10 0.11 0.11 -0.02 0 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.22 -0.01
11 0.11 0.11 -0.02 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.21 -0.01
12 0.11 0.11 -0.02 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.20 -0.01
13 0.11 0.11 -0.02 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.19 -0.01
14 0.11 0.11 -0.02 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.18 -0.01
15 0.11 0.11 -0.02 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.17 -0.01
16 0.12 0.11 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.16 -0.01
17 0.12 0.11 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.15 -0.01
18 0.12 0.11 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.15 -0.01
19 0.12 0.11 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.14 -0.01
20 0.12 0.11 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.13 -0.01
21 0.12 0.12 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.13 -0.01
22 0.12 0.12 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.12 -0.01
23 0.12 0.12 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.11 -0.01
24 0.12 0.12 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.11 -0.01
25 0.12 0.12 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.10 -0.01
26 0.12 0.12 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.10 -0.01
27 0.12 0.12 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.09 -0.01
28 0.12 0.12 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.09 -0.01
29 0.12 0.12 -0.01 0 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.08 -0.01

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Figure 10: The Great Recession in the model
Note: Figure shows two model simulations. The first, shown in the blue solid line, shows the path of the economy under a sequence of shocks to the cost of entry and the discount rate that generate paths for the mass of producers and output that match the U.S. experience during the Great Recession. In the second, shown in the dashed orange line, I set the shocks to the cost of entry to 0.

V1 Mass Firms 1 Mass Firms 2 Output 1 Output 2 Inflation 1 Inflation 2 Inflation data
0 -0.02 0 0.01 0.01 2.62 2.54 2.30
1 -0.04 0 -0.00 -0.00 4.32 4.08 4.60
2 -0.06 0 -0.05 -0.05 4.74 4.32 6.30
3 -0.07 0 -0.03 -0.03 6.49 5.89 7.30
4 -0.07 -0.00 -0.03 -0.03 8.03 7.27 9
5 -0.07 0 -0.03 -0.03 9.79 8.84 11.10
6 -0.07 0 -0.03 -0.03 11.55 10.41 12.90
7 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 13.46 12.16 14.70
8 -0.06 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 15.60 14.14 16.50
9 -0.06 0 -0.01 -0.01 17.51 15.88 18.70
10 -0.06 0 -0.01 -0.01 19.64 17.82 20.50
11 -0.05 0 0.00 0.00      
12 -0.05 0 0.01 0.01      
13 -0.05 0.00 -0.04 -0.04      
14 -0.03 0 0 0      
15 -0.00 0 0 0      
16 0.00 0.00 0 0      
17 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00      
18 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
19 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00      
20 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 0      
21 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00      
22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00      
23 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
24 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00      
25 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00      
26 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00      
27 -0.00 -0.00 0 -0.00      
28 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
29 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00      
30 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00      
31 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00      
32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00      
33 0.00 0.00 0 -0.00      
34 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00      
35 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00      
36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00      
37 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00      
38 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
39 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
40 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
41 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
42 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00      
43 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00      
44 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00      
45 -0.00 -0.00 0 -0.00      
46 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00      
47 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00      
48 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00      
49 -0.00 0 -0.00 -0.00      
50 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
51 0.00 -0.00 0 -0.00      
52 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00      
53 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
54 -0.00 0.00 0 0.00      
55 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00      
56 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
57 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
58 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
59 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
60 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
61 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
62 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
63 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00      
64 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00      
65 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00      
66 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00      
67 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00      
68 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00      
69 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
70 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00      
71 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00      
72 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00      
73 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00      
74 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00      
75 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00      
76 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00      
77 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00      
78 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
79 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
80 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
81 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
82 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
83 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
84 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
85 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
86 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
87 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
88 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
89 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
90 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
91 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
92 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
93 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
94 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
95 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
96 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
97 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
98 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
99 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
100 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
101 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
102 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
103 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
104 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
105 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
106 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
107 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
108 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
109 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
110 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
111 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
112 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
113 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
114 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
115 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
116 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
117 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
118 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
119 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
120 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
121 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
122 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
123 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
124 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
125 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
126 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
127 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
128 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
129 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
130 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
131 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
132 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
133 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
134 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
135 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
136 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
137 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
138 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
139 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
140 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
141 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
142 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
143 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
144 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
145 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
146 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
147 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
148 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      
149 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00      

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Figure 11: A monetary shock

V1 Nominal rate Real rate Entry rate Exit rate Mass of firms Output Employment Intermediate good price Wage Inflation
0 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.13 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 0.01 -0.33
1 0.01 0.01 0.12 0.12 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 -0.00 0.14
2 0.01 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.02 -0.01 -0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.12
3 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.02 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.09
4 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.02 -0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.07
5 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.02 -0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.06
6 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.01 -0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.05
7 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.01 -0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.05
8 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.01 -0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.04
9 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.01 -0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.03
10 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.03
11 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.02
12 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.02
13 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.01
14 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.01
15 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.01
16 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.01
17 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00
18 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00
19 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00
20 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00
21 -0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
22 -0.00 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00
23 -0.00 -0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
24 -0.00 -0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
25 -0.00 -0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
26 -0.00 -0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
27 -0.00 -0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
28 -0.00 -0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
29 -0.00 -0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00

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Figure 12: The role of producer dynamics

V1 Mass Firms 1 Mass Firms 2 Wage 1 Wage 2 Intermediate Price 1 Intermediate Price 2 Output 1 Output 2 Employment 1 Employment 2 Inflation 1 Inflation 2
0 -0.01 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.00 -0.01
1 -0.02 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 -0.00
2 -0.02 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.00 -0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00
3 -0.02 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00
4 -0.02 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 -0.00 0.00 0.00
5 -0.02 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 -0.00 0.00 0.00
6 -0.01 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
7 -0.01 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
8 -0.01 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
9 -0.01 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
10 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
11 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.01 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
12 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
13 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
14 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
15 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
16 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
17 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
18 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
19 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
20 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
21 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
22 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
23 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
24 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
25 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
26 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
27 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
28 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00
29 0.00 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.00 -0.00 -0.00

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Figure 13: Response of employment created by business formation

Years u2 d2 u d b
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0.77 -11.25 -1.58 -8.90 -5.24
2 0.16 -14.44 -2.70 -11.58 -7.14
3 -2.80 -29.29 -8.00 -24.10 -16.05
4 -7.44 -33.09 -12.47 -28.06 -20.26
5 -6.54 -30.97 -11.33 -26.18 -18.75
6 -7.66 -33.78 -12.78 -28.66 -20.72
7 -1.97 -29.16 -7.30 -23.83 -15.56
8 -3.47 -27.77 -8.23 -23.01 -15.62
9 -4.60 -25.46 -8.69 -21.37 -15.03
10 -2.22 -24.23 -6.53 -19.91 -13.22
11 -2.33 -23.77 -6.53 -19.57 -13.05
12 -1.05 -23.65 -5.48 -19.22 -12.35
13 -6.11 -27.03 -10.21 -22.93 -16.57
14 -5.71 -25.19 -9.53 -21.37 -15.45
15 -3.40 -30.00 -8.61 -24.78 -16.70
16 -2.18 -34.54 -8.52 -28.20 -18.36
17 -1.87 -34.43 -8.25 -28.05 -18.15
18 10.87 -22.94 4.24 -16.31 -6.03
19 4.67 -22.71 -0.70 -17.34 -9.02
20 6.80 -19.69 1.61 -14.49 -6.44
21 7.92 -15.50 3.33 -10.91 -3.79
22 10.79 -12.05 6.31 -7.58 -0.63
23 6.50 -13.06 2.66 -9.23 -3.28
24 10.62 -10.39 6.50 -6.27 0.12
25 15.09 -7.59 10.64 -3.14 3.75
26 15.02 -5.80 10.93 -1.72 4.61
27 12.45 -13.71 7.32 -8.58 -0.63
28 12.43 -16.48 6.77 -10.81 -2.02
29 10.81 -16.25 5.50 -10.94 -2.72
30 6.26 -16.23 1.85 -11.82 -4.99
31 7.91 -18.39 2.75 -13.23 -5.24
32 8.91 -15.03 4.22 -10.34 -3.06
33 12.51 -11.11 7.88 -6.48 0.70
34 14.04 -6.71 9.97 -2.64 3.67
35 14.31 -6.94 10.15 -2.77 3.69
36 15.15 -6.93 10.83 -2.60 4.11
37 12.76 -6.31 9.02 -2.57 3.23
38 11.65 -9.12 7.58 -5.05 1.26
39 6.89 -16.40 2.32 -11.84 -4.76
40 5.75 -17.27 1.24 -12.76 -5.76
41 7.40 -13.48 3.31 -9.39 -3.04
42 5.03 -15.58 0.99 -11.54 -5.27
43 6.56 -15.16 2.30 -10.90 -4.30
44 8.94 -15.20 4.21 -10.46 -3.13
45 18.41 -5.06 13.81 -0.46 6.68
46 27.90 0.75 22.58 6.07 14.32
47 32.95 3.74 27.22 9.47 18.35
33.94 5.72 28.41 11.25 19.83
32.71 5.14 27.31 10.55 18.93
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
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Figure 14: Response of employment eliminated by business destruction

Years u2 d2 u d b
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 8.39 -10.39 4.71 -6.71 -1.00
2 12.24 -8.35 8.20 -4.32 1.94
3 7.92 -28.31 0.82 -21.21 -10.19
4 7.05 -24.82 0.81 -18.57 -8.88
5 6.62 -26.55 0.12 -20.04 -9.96
6 14.12 -17.97 7.82 -11.68 -1.93
7 19.03 -16.65 12.03 -9.66 1.19
8 21.82 -9.84 15.61 -3.64 5.99
9 20.95 -11.17 14.66 -4.87 4.89
10 17.45 -14.80 11.12 -8.48 1.32
11 14.43 -18.60 7.95 -12.13 -2.09
12 13.52 -26.54 5.67 -18.69 -6.51
13 4.35 -33.08 -2.99 -25.74 -14.37
14 11.78 -27.16 4.14 -19.53 -7.69
15 13.26 -35.32 3.74 -25.80 -11.03
16 18.66 -35.52 8.04 -24.90 -8.43
17 16.72 -33.10 6.95 -23.33 -8.19
18 15.94 -30.55 6.83 -21.43 -7.30
19 3.51 -39.00 -4.83 -30.66 -17.74
20 6.63 -36.76 -1.88 -28.25 -15.06
21 7.43 -31.00 -0.11 -23.47 -11.79
22 11.01 -22.50 4.44 -15.93 -5.74
23 12.04 -19.65 5.83 -13.44 -3.81
24 13.44 -22.70 6.36 -15.61 -4.63
25 5.36 -31.89 -1.94 -24.59 -13.26
26 1.49 -41.35 -6.91 -32.95 -19.93
27 4.07 -52.54 -7.03 -41.44 -24.24
28 4.01 -49.50 -6.48 -39.01 -22.75
29 8.60 -38.69 -0.67 -29.42 -15.05
30 6.30 -31.70 -1.15 -24.25 -12.70
31 19.36 -20.81 11.48 -12.94 -0.73
32 11.77 -23.84 4.79 -16.86 -6.03
33 10.43 -21.11 4.25 -14.92 -5.34
34 6.08 -22.91 0.40 -17.22 -8.41
35 7.64 -19.52 2.31 -14.20 -5.94
36 9.95 -16.46 4.77 -11.28 -3.25
37 6.12 -24.49 0.12 -18.49 -9.18
38 3.85 -32.27 -3.24 -25.19 -14.21
39 0.69 -34.16 -6.14 -27.33 -16.73
40 4.61 -30.42 -2.26 -23.56 -12.91
41 7.37 -27.71 0.49 -20.83 -10.17
42 4.76 -26.65 -1.40 -20.49 -10.94
43 -1.16 -32.74 -7.35 -26.55 -16.95
44 -0.63 -31.65 -6.71 -25.57 -16.14
45 8.88 -21.38 2.94 -15.45 -6.25
46 17.19 -11.69 11.53 -6.03 2.75
47 15.17 -13.90 9.47 -8.20 0.63
14.08 -12.52 8.86 -7.31 0.78
7.74 -22.61 1.79 -16.66 -7.44
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Return to text


Figure 15: Response of the number of establishments, quarterly regression

Years u2 d2 u d b
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 0.35 -0.35 0.21 -0.21 0.00
2 0.57 -0.83 0.30 -0.56 -0.13
3 0.56 -1.34 0.19 -0.97 -0.39
4 0.19 -1.97 -0.23 -1.55 -0.89
5 -0.45 -3.05 -0.96 -2.54 -1.75
6 -0.85 -3.79 -1.43 -3.21 -2.32
7 -0.98 -4.22 -1.62 -3.59 -2.60
8 -1.02 -4.46 -1.70 -3.79 -2.74
9 -1.05 -4.40 -1.70 -3.74 -2.72
10 -0.69 -4.47 -1.43 -3.73 -2.58
11 -0.48 -4.74 -1.31 -3.90 -2.61
12 -0.42 -4.76 -1.27 -3.91 -2.59
13 -0.32 -4.57 -1.15 -3.74 -2.45
14 -0.41 -4.67 -1.24 -3.84 -2.54
15 -0.60 -4.62 -1.39 -3.83 -2.61
16 -0.81 -4.98 -1.63 -4.16 -2.89
17 -0.67 -4.91 -1.50 -4.08 -2.79
18 -0.40 -4.50 -1.20 -3.69 -2.45
19 -0.22 -4.60 -1.07 -3.74 -2.41
20 0.03 -4.54 -0.87 -3.64 -2.25
21 0.18 -4.35 -0.71 -3.46 -2.08
22 0.69 -4.11 -0.25 -3.17 -1.71
23 1.38 -3.72 0.38 -2.72 -1.17
1.64 -3.39 0.65 -2.40 -0.88
2.04 -2.63 1.12 -1.71 -0.30
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Return to text


Figure 16: Response of business formation, quarterly regression

Years u2 d2 u d b
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 8.73 -7.48 5.55 -4.30 0.62
2 4.29 -14.02 0.70 -10.43 -4.87
3 4.05 -15.40 0.24 -11.59 -5.68
4 7.04 -11.36 3.44 -7.75 -2.16
5 -4.68 -25.70 -8.80 -21.58 -15.19
6 -2.40 -25.21 -6.87 -20.74 -13.80
7 7.61 -15.75 3.03 -11.17 -4.07
8 7.21 -11.06 3.63 -7.48 -1.92
9 8.05 -6.63 5.17 -3.75 0.71
10 7.84 -11.11 4.13 -7.39 -1.63
11 9.26 -15.27 4.45 -10.46 -3.00
12 4.59 -14.79 0.79 -10.99 -5.10
13 11.68 -7.57 7.91 -3.80 2.05
14 3.22 -13.79 -0.11 -10.45 -5.28
15 4.13 -17.77 -0.16 -13.47 -6.82
16 -7.02 -23.23 -10.19 -20.05 -15.12
17 7.21 -15.75 2.71 -11.25 -4.27
18 15.38 -16.35 9.16 -10.13 -0.48
19 1.80 -21.96 -2.86 -17.30 -10.08
20 12.47 -8.83 8.29 -4.65 1.82
21 3.21 -22.19 -1.77 -17.21 -9.49
22 12.19 -13.06 7.24 -8.11 -0.43
23 17.14 -8.35 12.14 -3.36 4.39
11.34 -14.13 6.34 -9.13 -1.40
12.68 -11.28 7.98 -6.58 0.70
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Figure 17: Response of business destruction, quarterly regression

Years u2 d2 u d b
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 5.91 -7.08 3.36 -4.54 -0.59
2 10.09 -8.40 6.47 -4.77 0.85
3 9.81 -3.63 7.17 -1.00 3.09
4 23.54 2.30 19.37 6.46 12.92
5 26.83 12.04 23.93 14.94 19.43
6 19.65 -12.24 13.39 -5.99 3.70
7 16.10 -8.23 11.33 -3.46 3.94
8 16.09 -19.81 9.05 -12.77 -1.86
9 14.63 -19.41 7.96 -12.73 -2.39
10 2.63 -28.86 -3.54 -22.68 -13.11
11 4.16 -23.14 -1.19 -17.78 -9.49
12 5.05 -18.03 0.52 -13.51 -6.49
13 3.90 -12.61 0.66 -9.38 -4.36
14 5.84 -11.87 2.37 -8.40 -3.01
15 8.07 -11.14 4.30 -7.37 -1.53
16 2.54 -14.98 -0.89 -11.54 -6.22
17 0.67 -16.06 -2.61 -12.78 -7.69
18 5.83 -12.85 2.17 -9.19 -3.51
19 3.05 -16.92 -0.87 -13.01 -6.94
20 6.50 -11.91 2.89 -8.30 -2.71
21 1.98 -26.32 -3.56 -20.77 -12.17
22 11.67 -17.97 5.86 -12.16 -3.15
23 13.51 -16.37 7.65 -10.52 -1.43
18.60 -10.47 12.90 -4.77 4.06
21.36 -7.72 15.66 -2.02 6.82
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