Figure 1: Top 1% and 0.1% exit rates and share with large real income
changes
A. Top 1% exit rates
B. Top 0.1% exit
rates
C. Top 1% large changes
D. Top 0.1% large
changes
E. Top 1% entry sources
F. Top 1% exit
destinations
Notes: Fiscal income including capital
gains, indexed with the PCE. Results are by initial year (e.g., 4-year
changes are from year t to t+4) and smoothed over three years for exit
rates and five years for changes (no initial years are available for
1975–1978). Those under age 20 in the initial year are excluded.
Persistent shares in the top 1% in panels E and F differ slightly due to
population growth between the base years. Source: Authors’
calculations using tax return panels.
A six-panel figure showing top income dynamics. Panels A and B show the 1-, 4-, and 10-year exit rate from the top 1% and 0.1% income groups, respectively. One-year exit rate trends have been relatively stable in recent decades for the top 1%, while ten-year exit rates have modestly declined. For the top 0.1%, in contrast, the one-year exit rates have modestly increased, while the ten-year exit rates have modestly declined. Exit rates for the top 0.1% are higher than those for the top 1%. Panels C and D show the shares in the top 1% and top 0.1%, respectively, with large income increases and large income decreases of 25% or more. Since 1979, an average of 56 percent of tax units in the top 1% had a large income declines after ten years. The top 0.1% of the distribution shows even greater rates of downward mobility, with 67 percent having a large income decrease after ten years. Panels E and F show where individuals who enter and exit the top 1% come from and go to, respectively. Among those who exited the top income group, most remained in the top decile of the income distribution. Thirty percent of those starting in the top 1% fell below the top decile ten years later.
Figure 2: Annual and multi-year top fiscal income shares
A.
Top 1%, 11-years
B. Top 1%, 21-years
C. Top 0.1%,
11-years
D. Top 0.1%, 21-years
Notes: Results are
centered (e.g., 11-year changes are from year t-5 to t+5). Incomes are
fiscal income including capital gains, indexed with the PCE. Those under
age 20 in the initial year are excluded. The trend breaks denote the
shift from the CWHS data to the large panel.
Source:
Authors’ calculations using tax return panels.
A four-panel figure comparing annual and multi-year top fiscal income shares. Panels A and B show top 1% income shares over 11-year and 21-year periods, respectively. Top income inequality is lower when using multi-year panels of data. In the most recent year of data, the top 1% income share using 11-year averages is 2.9 percentage points below that found using annual incomes, which has increased from a 1.5 percentage point gap in 1984. Using 21-year average incomes, the top 1% income share in the early 2010s was 2.5 percentage points below that using single years of data, similar to the 2.6 percentage point gap in the first year of data. Panels C and D display the same for the top 0.1%. Using 11-year averages in Panel C, the gap between annual measures and multi-year measures for the top 0.1% share grew from 1.1 percentage points in the initial year to 2.2 percentage points in the most recent year. Using 11-year averages in Panel D, the gap between annual measures and multi-year measures for the top 0.1% share grew from 1.6 percentage points in the initial year to 2.2 percentage points in the most recent year.
Figure 3: Broad income variability (decreases in top income shares)
A. Top 1%
B. Top 0.1%
Notes:
Results are centered (e.g., 11-year changes are from t-5 to t+5).
Variability is the percentage point difference between average annual
and multi-year incomes (see Eqn. 1). Source: Authors’
calculations using CWHS tax return panel.
A two-panel figure. Panel A shows the top 1% income share variability using a 21-year broad income measure, an 11-year broad income measure, and a 5-year broad income measure. Panel B shows the same three series for the top 0.1% broad income share variability. In Panel A, variability lowers top 1% broad income shares by an average of 0.7 pp over 5 years, 1.3 pp over 11 years, and 2.1 pp over 21 years. In Panel B, variability lowers top 0.1% broad income shares by an average of 0.5 pp over 5 years, 0.8 pp over 11 years, and 1.3 pp over 21 years.
Figure 4: Top wealth variability (decreases in top wealth shares)
A. Top 1% wealth share variability
B. Top 0.1%
wealth share variability
Notes: Results are centered
(e.g., 11-year changes are from t-5 to t+5). Variability is the
percentage point difference between average annual and multi-year
incomes (see Eqn. 1). Outlier estimates excluded: Panel A after 2018 and
Panel B in 1990, 1991, and 1993. Source: Authors’ calculations
using CWHS tax return panel.
A two-panel figure. Panel A shows the top 1% wealth share variability using a 21-year measure, an 11-year measure, and a 5-year measure. Panel B shows the same three series for the top 0.1% wealth share variability. In Panel A, variability lowers top 1% wealth shares by an average of 0.9 pp over five years, 1.8 pp over 11 years, and 3.0 pp over 21 years. In Panel B, variability lowers top 0.1% wealth shares by an average of 0.6 pp over 5 years, 1.1 pp over 11 years, and 1.9 pp over 21 years.