Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Accessible versions of figures for 2026-031

The Causal Effect of Debt on Interest Rates

Accessible version of figures


Figure 1: Intraday Probability of Democratic Victory on PredictIt
This figure shows the intraday probability of Democratic victory according to PredictIt for the Georgia Senate runoff on January 5 through January 6, 2021.
Source: PredictIt.org

The figure displays the intraday probability of Democratic Senate Control from 1 pm January 5^(th) to 1 pm January 6^(th). The y axis marks the percent from 0 to 100. The intraday probability is represented by a black line. Generally, from 1 pm to 5 pm, the line hovers around 50%. It starts to dip lower stopping at around 30% at around 7:30 pm. At that point it surges and by midnight of January 6^(th), it is essentially 100%.

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Figure 2: Intraday Changes in the 10-year Treasury Yield
This figure shows the intraday developments for the on-the-run 10-year Treasury yield from December 21, 2020 through January 11, 2021. The flat portions of the line correspond to holidays and weekends.
Source: Bloomberg (USGG10YR)

The figure displays in basis points the 10-year yield from Bloomberg as a line chart in red. The x-axis is from December 21 to January 11^(th). The y-axis is from 80 to 120. From December 21^(st) to January 5^(th) night, the 10-year yield moves between about 90 and 95 basis points. Afterwards, it rises before settling at around 110 basis points on January 8^(th) . It begins increasing once more on January 11^(th). There are flat lines during the weekend periods of the chart.

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