De-Dollarization? Diversification? Exploring Central Bank Gold Purchases and the Dollar's Role in International Reserves

Figure 1: Gold Reserve Trends - Gold Reserves, 1950-2024

Source: International Monetary Fund International Financial Statistics

Figure 1: Gold Reserve Trends - Number of Countries Purchasing Gold Reseres, 2001-2023

Figure 1: Gold Reserve Trends - Gold Share of International Reserves, 2000-2024

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Figure 2: Estimated Probability of Buying U.S. Assets Conditional on Purchasing Gold Reserves

Figure shows estimated probabilities a sovereign buys U.S. assets in a given year conditional on that sovereign purchasing gold reserves in the same year for the 2012-2021 and 2022-2023 periods alongside 90 percent confidence intervals constructed using standard errors clustered at the country level. Estimates are based on a regression of an indicator variable equal to one if the official sector in a country purchases U.S. assets on net in a given year on a constant, an indicator equal to one if a central bank buys gold in a given year, an indicator variable for 2022 and 2023, and the interaction of the the gold-buying and post-2021 indicator variable. The plotted probability for 2012-2021 is the estimate of the constant term plus the coefficient on the gold reserve-buying indicator. The plotted probability for 2022-2023 is the sum of the estimated constant,the coefficient on the gold-buying dummy, the coefficient on the post-2021 indicator variable, and the coefficient on the interaction of these two indicator variables.

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Figure 3: Distribution of International Reserves (Excluding Gold) to GDP Ratios

Notes: Solid blue vertical line at 0.159 is median for the entire sample. Short-dashed black vertical line at 0.166 marks the median for countries in the samples selling more than $200 million of U.S. assets in a given year. Dashed red vertical line at 0.075 denotes media for countries selling more than 5 metric tons of gold in a given year.

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