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Photo of Robert J. Tetlow

Robert J. Tetlow

Senior Adviser Program Direction Section Monetary Affairs
202-452-2437
robert.j.tetlow@frb.gov

Education

  • Ph.D., Economics, Carleton University (Ottawa)
  • M.A., Economics, Simon Fraser University
  • B.A., Economics/Commerce, Simon Fraser University
Current Research Topics
  • Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Dynamics
  • Learning, Expectations, and Bubbles
  • Senior Adviser

    Division of Monetary Affairs

    2016 - present
  • Adviser

    Division of Monetary Affairs

    2013 - 2016
  • Senior Economist

    Division of Research and Statistics

    2000 - 2013
  • Visiting Adviser

    Research Department, International Monetary Fund

    2010 - 2011
  • Economist

    Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    1995 - 2000
  • Research Officer

    Research Department, Bank of Canada

    1993 - 1995
  • Senior Analyst

    Research Department, Bank of Canada

    1991 - 1993
  • Economist

    Department of Monetary and Financial Analysis, Bank of Canada

    1988 - 1991
  • Tetlow, Robert (2019). "The Monetary Policy Response to Uncertain Inflation Persistence," Economics Letters, vol. 175, pp. 5-8.
  • Erceg, Christopher, James Hebden, Michael Kiley, David López-Salido, and Robert Tetlow (2018). "Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-059. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Tetlow, Robert (2018). "The Monetary Policy Response to Uncertain Inflation Persistence," FEDS Notes 2018-08-29. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • English, William B., J. David López-Salido, and Robert J. Tetlow (2015). "The Federal Reserve's Framework for Monetary Policy: Recent Changes and New Questions," IMF Economic Review, vol. 63, no. 1, pp. 22-70.
  • Bomfim, Antulio N., Robert Tetlow, Peter von zur Muehlen, and John Williams (1997). "Expectations, Learning, and the Costs of Disinflation: Experiments Using the FRB/US Model," in Monetary Policy and the Inflation Process. BIS Conference Papers, no. 4. Basel: Bank for International Settlements, pp. 222-243.
  • Tetlow, Robert J. (2015). "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: 'Robust' Policies Put to the Test," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 113-155.
  • Hubrich, Kirstin, and Robert Tetlow (2015). "Financial Stress and Economic Dynamics: The Transmission of Crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 70, pp. 100-115.
  • English, William B., J. David López-Salido, and Robert Tetlow (2013). "The Federal Reserve's Framework for Monetary Policy: Recent Changes and New Questions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-76. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Tetlow, Robert J. (2009). "The Challenges of Estimating Potential Output in Real Time: Commentary," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, vol. 91, no. 4, pp. 291-296.
  • Tetlow, Robert J., and Peter von zur Muehlen (2009). "Robustifying Learnability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 296-316.
  • Tetlow, Robert J. (2008). "Inflation Targeting and Target Instability," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 151-192.
  • Tetlow, Robert J. (2007). "On the Robustness of Simple and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules: Discussion," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 54, no. 5, pp. 1397-1405.
  • Tetlow, Robert J., and Brian Ironside (2007). "Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed, 1996-2003," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 39, no. 7, pp. 1533-1849.
  • Tetlow, Robert J. (2006). "Monetary Policy, Asset Prices and Misspecification," In Issues in Inflation Targeting: Proceedings of a Conference Held by the Bank of Canada, April 28-29, 2005. Bank of Canada, pp. 155-183.
  • Svensson, Lars E. O., and Robert J. Tetlow (2005). "Optimal Policy Projections," International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 177-207.
  • Svensson, Lars O., and Robert J. Tetlow (2005). "Optimal Policy Projections," NBER Working Papers 11392. National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Tetlow, Robert, and Peter von zur Muehlen (2004). "Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robust Responses to Model Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 869-899.
  • Tetlow, Robert J., and Peter von zur Muehlen (2001). "Robust Monetary Policy with Misspecified Models: Does Model Uncertainty Always Call for Attenuated Policy?" Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 25, no. 6-7, pp. 911-949.
  • Tetlow, Robert J., and Peter von zur Muehlen (2001). "Simplicity versus Optimality: The Choice of Monetary Policy Rules When Agents Must Learn," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 25, no. 1-2, pp. 245-279.
  • Orphanides, Athanasios, Richard D. Porter, David Reifschneider, Robert Tetlow, and Frederico Finan (2000). "Errors in the Measurement of the Output Gap and the Design of Monetary Policy," Journal of Economics and Business, vol. 52, no. 1/2, pp. 117-141.
  • Finan, Frederico S., and Robert Tetlow (1999). "Optimal Control of Large, Forward-Looking Models Efficient Solutions and Two Examples," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-51. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Reifschneider, David, Robert Tetlow, and John Williams (1999). "Aggregate Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective," Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 85, no. 1, pp. 1-19.
  • Bomfim, Antulio, Robert Tetlow, Peter Von Zur Muehlen, and John Williams (1997). "Expectations, Learning and the Costs of Disinflation: Experiments using the FRB/US Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-42. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Tetlow, Robert, Donald Coletti, Ben Hunt, and David Rose (1996). "The Dynamic Model: QPM," in Part 3 of the Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Technical Report, no. 75. Canada: Bank of Canada.
  • Macklem, Tiff, David Rose, and Robert Tetlow (1995). "Government Debt and Deficits in Canada: A Macro Simulation Analysis," Working Paper 1995-4. Bank of Canada.
  • Fillion, Jean-Francois, and Robert Tetlow (1994). "Zero-Inflation or Price-Level Targeting? Some Answers from Stochastic Simulations on a Small Open-Economy Macro Model," in Economic Behaviour and Policy Choice Under Price Stability. Ottawa: Bank of Canada, pp. 129-166.
  • Tetlow, Robert, Richard Black, Douglas Laxton, and David Rose (1994). "The Steady-State Model: SSQPM," in Parrt 1 of the Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Bank of Canada Technical Report, no. 72. Ottawa: Bank of Canada.
  • Macklem, Tiff, David Rose, and Robert Tetlow (1994). "Government Debt and Deficits in Canada: A Macro Simulation Analysis," in Robson, William B.,P., William Scarth M. eds., Deficit Reduction: What Pain, what Gain? Toronto: C.D. Howe Institute, pp. 231-272.
  • Laxton, Douglas, David Rose, and Robert Tetlow (1993). "Monetary Policy, Uncertainty and the Presumption of Linearity," Technical Report, no. 63. Bank of Canada.
  • Laxton, Douglas, and Robert Tetlow (1992). "A Simple Multivariate Filter for the Measurement of Potential Output," Technical Report, no. 59. Bank of Canada.
  • Laxton, Douglas, and Robert Tetlow (1992). "Government Debt in an Open Economy," Technical Report, no. 58. Bank of Canada.

  • conference

    September 2014

    Advances in Applied Macro-Finance and Forecasting

    Melting Down: Systemic Financial Instability and the Macroeconomy

  • seminar

    September 2014

    Istanbul School of Central Banking, Istanbul, Turkey

    An Introduction to the FRB/US Model of the U.S. Economy

  • conference

    January 2013

    American Economics Association meetings, San Diego

    Real-time Model Uncertainty in the United States: 'Robust' policies put to the test

  • conference

    July 2011

    NBER Summer Institute

    Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Dynamics: the transmission of crises

  • conference

    October 2009

    FRB-Cleveland conference on "Models and Policies for Economies with Credit and Financial Instability

    Discussion of "Banks, Market Organization and Macroeconomic Performance: an agent-based computational analysis" by Ashraf, Gershman and Howitt

  • conference

    October 2009

    FRB Conference on Key Developments in Monetary Economics

    Discussion of "Wanting Robustness to Misspecification" by Lars P. Hansen and Thomas Sargent

  • conference

    October 2008

    33rd Annual Policy Conference of the FRB-St.Louis

    Discussion of "The Pitfalls of Measuring Potential Output in Real Time" by Robert Arnold

  • conference

    May 2008

    2008 World Congress on National Accounts and Economic Performance Measures

    Some Implications of Mismeasurement for Model Uncertainty and Monetary Policy

  • conference

    July 2015

    NBER Summer Institute

    Melting Down: Systemic Financial Instability and the Macroeconomy

Conference Organization

  • June 2005 | Washington, D.C.

    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005

    Co-organizer

  • April 2003 | Washington, D.C.

    Central Bankers' Workshop on Macromodeling

    Co-organizer

Referee
  • American Economic Review
  • American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
  • European Economic Review
  • Journal of the European Economic Association
  • Journal of Monetary Economics
  • Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
  • International Journal of Central Banking
  • Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control
  • Review of Economic Dynamics
  • Theoretical Economics
  • Handbook of Monetary Economics
  • Oxford Economic Papers
  • Journal of Economic Surveys
  • International Finance
  • Journal of Macroeconomics
  • Manchester School
  • Computational Economics
Professional Affiliation
  • President, Society for Computational Economics, 2010-2011
  • Member, Advisory Committee, Society for Computational Economics
  • Member, American Economic Association
  • Member, Society for Economic Dynamics
Last update: February 18, 2020