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Photo of Robert J. Vigfusson

Robert J. Vigfusson

Assistant Director Program Direction Section International Finance
202-452-2335
[email protected]

Education

  • Ph.D., Economics, Northwestern University, 2002
  • B.Sc., Mathematics and Economics, University of Manitoba, 1994
Current Research Topics
  • Productivity and Variety Growth
  • Macro Implications of Commodity Prices
  • Deputy Associate Director

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2021 - present
  • Assistant Director

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2020 - 2021
  • Assistant Director and Chief

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2018 - 2020
  • Chief

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2013 - 2018
  • Senior Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2008 - 2013
  • Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    2002 - 2008
  • Research Assistant

    Bank of Canada

    1994 - 1996
  • Datta, Deepa D., Benjamin K. Johannsen, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2021). "Oil, Equities, and a "Nonbinding" Zero Lower Bound: The Monetary Policy Response to COVID-19," FEDS Notes 2021-04-14. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Çakır Melek, Nida, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2021). "The Evolving Link between Oil Prices and U.S. Consumer Spending," Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 1st Quarter 2021, v. 106, no. 1, pp. 41-55.
  • Datta, Deepa D., Benjamin K. Johannsen, Hannah Kwon, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2021). "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 214-253.
  • Leduc, Sylvain, Kevin Moran, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2020). "Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," FRBSF Working Paper 2020-33. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, October.
  • Morrison, Tessa, and Robert Vigfusson (2018). "BAT Signals from Asset Markets: Estimating the U.S. Dollar Response to a Destination-Based Cash-Flow Tax," IFDP Notes 2018-10-23. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Datta, Deepa, Benjamin K. Johannsen, Hannah Kwon, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2018). "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-058. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Gruber, Joseph W., and Robert J. Vigfusson (2018). "Interest Rates and the Volatility and Correlation of Commodity Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 600-619.
  • Ahmed, Shaghil, Carol Bertaut, Jessica Liu, and Robert Vigfusson (2018). "Should We Be Concerned Again About U.S. Current Account Sustainability?" IFDP Notes 2018-03-09. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Datta, Deepa D., and Robert J. Vigfusson (2017). "Forecasting China's Role in World Oil Demand," Economic Letter 2017-24. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Kilian, Lutz, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2017). "The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 49, no. 8, pp. 1747-1776.
  • Datta, Deepa, Benjamin K. Johannsen, Hannah Kwon, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2017). "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," BIS Working Papers, no. 617. Bank for International Settlements.
  • Leduc, Sylvain, Kevin Moran, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2016). "Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 1179. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Perez-Segura, Alejandro, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2016). "The Relationship Between Oil Prices and Inflation Compensation," IFDP Notes 2016-04-06. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Gruber, Joseph, Andrew McCallum, and Robert Vigfusson (2016). "The Dollar in the U.S. International Transactions (USIT) Model," IFDP Notes 2016-02-08. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Gagnon, Etienne, Benjamin R. Mandel, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2014). "Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-through," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 156-206.
  • Kilian, Lutz, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2014). "The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions," International Finance Discussion Papers 1114. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Vigfusson, Robert J. (2014). "Forecasting Business Cycles: Green Shoots and Red Leaves," International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 536-538.
  • Gruber, Joseph W., and Robert J. Vigfusson (2013). "Do Low Interest Rates Decrease Commodity Price Volatility?" IFDP Notes 2013-09-26. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Alquist, Ron, Lutz Kilian, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2013). "Forecasting the Price of Oil," in Elliott, Graham, and Allan Timmermann eds., Handbook of Economic Forecasting, vol. 2., pp. 427-507.
  • Kilian, Lutz, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2013). "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 78-91.
  • Gruber, Joseph W., and Robert J. Vigfusson (2012). "Interest Rates and the Volatility and Correlation of Commodity Prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 1065r. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Kilian, Lutz, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2011). "Are the Responses of the U.S. Economy Asymmetric in Energy Price Increases and Decreases?" Quantitative Economics, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 419-453.
  • Kilian, Lutz, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2011). "Nonlinearities in the Oil Price-Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 15, no. S3, pp. 337-363.
  • Gust, Christopher, Sylvain Leduc, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2011). "Entry Dynamics and the Decline in Exchange-Rate Pass-through," in Anderton, Robert, Geoff Kenny eds., Macroeconomic Performance in a Globalising Economy. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 93-119.
  • Reeve, Trevor A., and Robert J. Vigfusson (2011). "Evaluating the Forecasting Performance of Commodity Futures Prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 1025. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Gust, Christopher, Sylvain Leduc, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2010). "Entry Dynamics and the Decline in Exchange-Rate Pass-through," International finance discussion papers 1008. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Gust, Christopher, Sylvain Leduc, and Robert Vigfusson (2010). "Trade Integration, Competition, and the Decline in Exchange-Rate Pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 57, no. 3, pp. 309-324.
  • Gust, Christopher, and Robert Vigfusson (2009). "The Power of Long-Run Structural VARs," International Finance Discussion Papers 978. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Vigfusson, Robert J., Nathan Sheets, and Joseph Gagnon (2009). "Exchange Rate Passthrough to Export Prices: Assessing Cross-Country Evidence," Review of International Economics, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 17-33.
  • Vigfusson, Robert (2008). "How does the Border Affect Productivity? Evidence from American and Canadian Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 90, no. 1, pp. 49-64.
  • Christiano, Lawrence J., Martin Eichenbaum, and Robert Vigfusson (2007). "Assessing Structural VARs," in Acemoglu, Daron, Kenneth Rogoff, and Michael Woodford eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006. Cambridge and London: MIT Press, vol. 21, pp. 1-106.
  • Vigfusson, Robert J., Nathan Sheets, and Joseph Gagnon (2007). "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Export Prices: Assessing some Cross-Country Evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 902. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Christiano, Lawrence J., Martin Eichenbaum, and Robert Vigfusson (2006). "Alternative Procedures for Estimating Vector Autoregressions Identified with Long-Run Restrictions," Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 4, no. 2-3, pp. 475-483.
  • Gust, Christopher, Sylvain Leduc, and Robert J. Vigfusson (2006). "Trade Integration, Competition, and the Decline in Exchange-Rate Pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 864. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Marazzi, Mario, Nathan Sheets, Robert J. Vigfusson, Jon Faust, Joseph Gagnon, Jaime Marquez, Robert F. Martin, Trevor Reeve, and John Rogers (2005). "Exchange Rate Pass-through to U.S. Import Prices: Some New Evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 833. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Christiano, Lawrence J., Martin Eichenbaum, and Robert Vigfusson (2004). "The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: Evidence Based on Direct Measures of Technology," Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 2, no. 2-3, pp. 381-395.
  • Vigfusson, Robert J. (2004). "The Delayed Response to a Technology Shock: A Flexible Price Explanation," International Finance Discussion Papers 810. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Christiano, Lawrence J., and Robert J. Vigfusson (2003). "Maximum Likelihood in the Frequency Domain: The Importance of Time-to-Plan," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 50, no. 4, pp. 789-815.
  • Christiano, Lawrence J., Martin Eichenbaum, and Robert Vigfusson (2003). "How do Canadian Hours Worked Respond to a Technology Shock?" International Finance Discussion Papers 774. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Christiano, Lawrence J., Martin Eichenbaum, and Robert Vigfusson (2003). "What Happens After a Technology Shock?" International Finance Discussion Papers 768. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • van Norden, Simon, and Robert Vigfusson (1998). "Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Reliably Detect Bubbles?" Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 1-22.
  • Gable, Jeff, Simon van Norden, and Robert Vigfusson (1997). "Analytical Derivatives for Markov Switching Models," Computational Economics, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 187-194.
  • Vigfusson, Robert (1997). "Switching between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Journal of Finance and Economics, vol. 2, no. 4, pp. 291-305.
  • Vigfusson, Robert J. (1995). "Manitoba Hutterites and J. S. Mill: A Comparison in Cooperation," in Forget, Evelyn,L., Richard Lobdell A. eds., The Peasant in Economic Thought: 'A Perfect Republic.'. Brookfield, Vt.: Elgar; distributed by Ashgate, pp. 55-69.
Awards
  • 2012

    American Economic Review

    Excellence in Refereeing Award

  • 2008

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

    Special Achievement Award

  • 2007

    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

    Outstanding Referee Award

Editor
  • Associate Editor, Journal of Applied Econometrics, July 2016 - ongoing.
Professional Affiliation
  • Research Council, J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities at the University of Colorado Denver Business School, 2015-present.
Last update: November 22, 2021