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Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2014-80

Returning to the Nest: Debt and Parental Co-residence Among Young Adults

Lisa J. Dettling and Joanne W. Hsu

Figure 1: Trends in Parental Co-residence

quarter livingwithparent smoothed_parent
1989q1 0.2990172 0.31258478
1989q2 0.3148135 0.31258478
1989q3 0.3048748 0.31300506
1989q4 0.3094122 0.31300506
1990q1 0.302219 0.31334405
1990q2 0.3130705 0.31334405
1990q3 0.3151784 0.31370483
1990q4 0.3198044 0.31370483
1991q1 0.3081988 0.31401489
1991q2 0.3123384 0.31401489
1991q3 0.3133155 0.31435627
1991q4 0.3203058 0.31435627
1992q1 0.3085567 0.31466968
1992q2 0.3212027 0.31466968
1992q3 0.3220791 0.31515035
1992q4 0.3240332 0.31515035
1993q1 0.3083973 0.31562388
1993q2 0.3195656 0.31562388
1993q3 0.3126446 0.31632178
1993q4 0.3193477 0.31632178
1994q1 0.324138 0.316914
1994q2 0.3202626 0.316914
1994q3 0.30984 0.31749827
1994q4 0.3096952 0.31749827
1995q1 0.321459 0.31800451
1995q2 0.3186685 0.31800451
1995q3 0.3126125 0.31834604
1995q4 0.3125771 0.31834604
1996q1 0.3288744 0.31861892
1996q2 0.316798 0.31861892
1996q3 0.3141517 0.31877408
1996q4 0.3065803 0.31877408
1997q1 0.3280873 0.318941
1997q2 0.3214863 0.318941
1997q3 0.3151788 0.31907089
1997q4 0.3205045 0.31907089
1998q1 0.3277838 0.31913273
1998q2 0.3267069 0.31913273
1998q3 0.3151444 0.31903314
1998q4 0.3239437 0.31903314
1999q1 0.3307882 0.31889248
1999q2 0.324578 0.31889248
1999q3 0.311896 0.31868537
1999q4 0.3239495 0.31868537
2000q1 0.3247242 0.31840919
2000q2 0.3208423 0.31840919
2000q3 0.3088753 0.31799971
2000q4 0.3084667 0.31799971
2001q1 0.3123299 0.31751427
2001q2 0.3240395 0.31751427
2001q3 0.3167767 0.3168884
2001q4 0.31517 0.3168884
2002q1 0.3205845 0.31637797
2002q2 0.3243903 0.31637797
2002q3 0.3070856 0.31594704
2002q4 0.3149328 0.31594704
2003q1 0.3200838 0.31580854
2003q2 0.3210828 0.31580854
2003q3 0.3020694 0.31594378
2003q4 0.3131035 0.31594378
2004q1 0.3247711 0.31641409
2004q2 0.3169659 0.31641409
2004q3 0.3118784 0.31718478
2004q4 0.3133593 0.31718478
2005q1 0.3132246 0.31816547
2005q2 0.3183883 0.31816547
2005q3 0.3125737 0.31945156
2005q4 0.309038 0.31945156
2006q1 0.3192008 0.32112071
2006q2 0.3180802 0.32112071
2006q3 0.3011959 0.3232458
2006q4 0.3089278 0.3232458
2007q1 0.3243439 0.32571067
2007q2 0.3222235 0.32571067
2007q3 0.3057248 0.32862159
2007q4 0.3239845 0.32862159
2008q1 0.3339675 0.33160396
2008q2 0.3333608 0.33160396
2008q3 0.3134195 0.33494467
2008q4 0.3340948 0.33494467
2009q1 0.3379624 0.3378618
2009q2 0.3451279 0.3378618
2009q3 0.3188865 0.34095541
2009q4 0.3297787 0.34095541
2010q1 0.3441443 0.34343768
2010q2 0.3497719 0.34343768
2010q3 0.3256927 0.34616874
2010q4 0.3396682 0.34616874
2011q1 0.3513871 0.34818398
2011q2 0.3615896 0.34818398
2011q3 0.3478068 0.35050919
2011q4 0.3573184 0.35050919
2012q1 0.3639215 0.35218972
2012q2 0.3697053 0.35218972
2012q3 0.3563128 0.35422117
2012q4 0.3549191 0.35422117
2013q1 0.3602346 0.35574895
2013q2 0.3694742 0.35574895
2013q3 0.3585602 0.35764049
2013q4 0.3608031 0.35764049
2014q1 0.3593582  

Figure A1 Panel a: Matching Trends in Parental Co-residence in the CPS and Credit Report Sample - Raw Means

quarter CPS FRBNY CCP/Equifax
200503 0.313224583864212 0.315158426761627
200506 0.318388253450394 0.310896068811417
200509 0.314754635095596 0.309794425964355
200512 0.309037953615189 0.310330957174301
200603 0.319200843572617 0.310111463069916
200606 0.318080216646194 0.310946345329285
200609 0.305906116962433 0.308358639478683
200612 0.308927804231644 0.309887170791626
200703 0.324343919754028 0.327071279287338
200706 0.322223544120789 0.325367778539658
200709 0.31179004907608 0.326019316911697
200712 0.32398447394371 0.329558104276657
200803 0.333967506885529 0.34523594379425
200806 0.333360821008682 0.342907428741455
200809 0.322364747524261 0.346265733242035
200812 0.334094822406769 0.348066121339798
200903 0.337962359189987 0.365891933441162
200906 0.345127940177917 0.364926606416702
200909 0.328842014074326 0.366089016199112
200912 0.329778671264648 0.369621694087982
201003 0.345522105693817 0.386224120855331
201006 0.349771946668625 0.382676899433136
201009 0.337841928005219 0.382531583309174
201012 0.339668244123459 0.385649234056473
201103 0.34921196103096 0.400996744632721
201106 0.361589550971985 0.397930830717087
201109 0.347806811332703 0.394113838672638
201112 0.35731840133667 0.390089690685272
201203 0.363015323877335 0.402712881565094
201206 0.369705229997635 0.397688090801239
201209 0.356312781572342 0.392432540655136
201212 0.354919105768204 0.388769567012787
201303 0.358740568161011 0.402757227420807
201306 0.369474232196808 0.398000121116638
201309 0.358560234308243 0.393144726753235
201312   0.38844233751297
201403   0.410290062427521

Figure A1 Panel b: Matching Trends in Parental Co-residence in the CPS and Credit Report Sample - Mean Age-Adjusted Residuals

quarter CPS FRBNY CCP/Equifax
200503 -0.0139673529192805 -0.053328350186348
200506 -0.0113611035048962 -0.0617591291666031
200509 -0.0127886440604925 -0.0689058527350426
200512 -0.0153896100819111 -0.0762887895107269
200603 -0.00441367737948895 -0.0397854670882225
200606 -0.00809408444911242 -0.0434058755636215
200609 -0.0174021124839783 -0.053680095821619
200612 -0.0135935982689261 -0.0597635991871357
200703 6.23941377853043e-05 -0.0250348709523678
200706 -0.00310596916824579 -0.032041858881712
200709 -0.0116369221359491 -0.0388902090489864
200712 -0.00165625102818012 -0.04484773427248
200803 0.0106292963027954 -0.0120278717949986
200806 0.00724489660933614 -0.0181115493178368
200809 -0.000104536156868562 -0.0233136620372534
200812 0.011336955241859 -0.0295066218823195
200903 0.0150913167744875 0.00597383081912994
200906 0.0198880732059479 0.0014375364407897
200909 0.00451000453904271 -0.00327464053407311
200912 0.00518940528854728 -0.00951192434877157
201003 0.0210978128015995 0.0259591564536095
201006 0.0263007264584303 0.01874571852386
201009 0.0161179415881634 0.0125623568892479
201012 0.0169003885239363 0.00592186627909541
201103 0.0238849576562643 0.0407970249652863
201106 0.0354070886969566 0.0346611514687538
201109 0.0251705702394247 0.0273926537483931
201112 0.0329619981348515 0.0203634165227413
201203 0.0342060104012489 0.0553584285080433
201206 0.0415914952754974 0.0488429479300976
201209 0.0292924884706736 0.0433176271617413
201212 0.0299740824848413 0.0388380698859692
201303 0.0351014100015163 0.076993890106678
201306 0.0428197868168354 0.0720507130026817
201309 0.0370231121778488 0.0669992566108704
201312   0.0615496672689915
201403   0.107967890799046

Figure 2a: Trends in Loan Balances and Delinquency - Mean Balances

quarter Studen Loans Auto Loans Credit Cards Mortgages
200503 5260.333984375 3642.72705078125 2139.14379882812 15806.955078125
200506 5392.86572265625 3927.78930664062 2145.87158203125 16566.818359375
200509 5279.20947265625 4194.34619140625 2179.005859375 17257.9921875
200512 5390.33349609375 3978.59301757812 2203.40405273438 18431.71875
200603 5879.33642578125 3921.0927734375 2152.05883789062 19270.865234375
200606 5777.62890625 3957.44775390625 2183.32080078125 20121.197265625
200609 5776.20068359375 4083.68896484375 2255.1748046875 21079.4609375
200612 6129.47607421875 4118.01708984375 2312.6884765625 21759.59765625
200703 6331.45849609375 3863.76025390625 2134.80541992188 20168.275390625
200706 6232.83154296875 3895.88159179688 2181.28247070312 20599.77734375
200709 5620.91650390625 3966.97631835938 2285.02270507812 21473.796875
200712 6386.515625 3889.37744140625 2322.6181640625 21541.22265625
200803 6680.39794921875 3670.27661132812 2121.33032226562 19064.337890625
200806 6547.2734375 3633.75048828125 2115.818359375 19116.677734375
200809 6752.1005859375 3602.62060546875 2134.82885742188 19123.548828125
200812 7241.53125 3625.29809570312 2227.2431640625 19789.0625
200903 7426.537109375 3329.40991210938 1970.14685058594 17194.529296875
200906 7426.03173828125 3213.5068359375 1888.33801269531 17026.36328125
200909 7606.49365234375 3146.12548828125 1874.10339355469 17013.12109375
200912 7836.12548828125 3003.34814453125 1799.07885742188 16923.294921875
201003 8286.98828125 2772.884765625 1564.42944335938 14895.4736328125
201006 8267.7421875 2765.90893554688 1509.70568847656 15122.3076171875
201009 8386.8759765625 2784.25122070312 1492.5546875 15198.3662109375
201012 8595.0380859375 2738.10009765625 1458.9619140625 14899.427734375
201103 8881.005859375 2556.23071289062 1248.708984375 12796.0478515625
201106 8832.3017578125 2597.92529296875 1243.42163085938 12806.84375
201109 9045.5947265625 2695.00512695312 1270.63061523438 12886.423828125
201112 9306.095703125 2769.82153320312 1323.61755371094 13114.111328125
201203 9020.1689453125 2678.5341796875 1156.08666992188 11250.28515625
201206 9755.802734375 2818.96557617188 1173.20275878906 11554.89453125
201209 10176.7783203125 2959.60009765625 1226.74877929688 11941.03515625
201212 10384.568359375 3100.560546875 1296.58605957031 12495.6201171875
201303 10889.572265625 3059.8486328125 1163.12036132812 11047.638671875
201306 10967.8173828125 3230.60327148438 1211.74987792969 11442.234375
201309 11196.2197265625 3402.5517578125 1293.77392578125 12187.826171875
201312 11298.5419921875 3556.88720703125 1366.59313964844 13133.498046875

Figure 2b: Trends in Loan Balances and Delinquency - Delinquency

quarter Studen Loans Auto Loans Credit Cards Mortgages
200503 0.0358377285301685 0.0126366829499602 0.0434817709028721 0.00549181923270226
200506 0.0360197201371193 0.0139225386083126 0.0419108793139458 0.00589194893836975
200509 0.0369946770370007 0.0156760588288307 0.0455789677798748 0.00650737294927239
200512 0.0359862968325615 0.0163736157119274 0.0460608005523682 0.00658947043120861
200603 0.0373791754245758 0.0138965966179967 0.040013674646616 0.00603627413511276
200606 0.0392762310802937 0.0153541974723339 0.0432755723595619 0.00682162865996361
200609 0.0411886535584927 0.0173145402222872 0.0473942346870899 0.00774466479197145
200612 0.0408145673573017 0.017849063500762 0.0510198175907135 0.00800303276628256
200703 0.0418996438384056 0.0151682114228606 0.046437568962574 0.00720179965719581
200706 0.0431158058345318 0.0171305183321238 0.0503455772995949 0.00826907716691494
200709 0.040598850697279 0.0192083306610584 0.056635569781065 0.00932968687266111
200712 0.0436892174184322 0.0201329328119755 0.0615323148667812 0.0104720629751682
200803 0.045150276273489 0.0166022256016731 0.0508517846465111 0.00908123049885035
200806 0.0457648709416389 0.0181304719299078 0.0480958856642246 0.00970311742275953
200809 0.0493198968470097 0.0201626140624285 0.0494596920907497 0.0109867276623845
200812 0.0495236702263355 0.02073741145432 0.0499146431684494 0.0123831359669566
200903 0.0512528568506241 0.0163728184998035 0.0434713214635849 0.010659790597856
200906 0.052925132215023 0.0173159763216972 0.0381886437535286 0.0115781901404262
200909 0.0549446046352386 0.0184151995927095 0.0383156016469002 0.0125494711101055
200912 0.0551246590912342 0.0176589116454124 0.036112304776907 0.0125833470374346
201003 0.0588452219963074 0.0133578991517425 0.0295076053589582 0.0105009758844972
201006 0.0603245534002781 0.0136711858212948 0.0270232260227203 0.0101166367530823
201009 0.0616282895207405 0.0144407777115703 0.0441098064184189 0.00989541597664356
201012 0.0597281977534294 0.0139088295400143 0.0421765334904194 0.00916825141757727
201103 0.0632364451885223 0.0108124250546098 0.0213393345475197 0.00723488535732031
201106 0.0640294030308723 0.0113228783011436 0.0218327511101961 0.00718845939263701
201109 0.0657657012343407 0.0126566179096699 0.0249405074864626 0.00759383616968989
201112 0.0612679049372673 0.0122315492480993 0.0265292283147573 0.00763111654669046
201203 0.06622014939785 0.00920745264738798 0.0213263537734747 0.00577704003080726
201206 0.0687792301177979 0.0106223504990339 0.0222834888845682 0.00615215068683028
201209 0.0884925574064255 0.0119892153888941 0.0251195300370455 0.0063662133179605
201212 0.0879160985350609 0.0129068791866302 0.0260780956596136 0.0064442353323102
201303 0.0895717814564705 0.010972804389894 0.0222261324524879 0.00491400668397546
201306 0.09003796428442 0.0112370001152158 0.0215977542102337 0.00472226506099105
201309 0.0963585004210472 0.0133050605654716 0.0239667035639286 0.00500974711030722
201312 0.0996885597705841 0.0143357794731855 0.0249877870082855 0.00515927979722619

Figure 3a:

Quarters From Move Fraction Past Due Mean Risk Score
-8 0.108836635947227 630.983642578125
-7 0.119439393281937 629.422973632812
-6 0.123169057071209 629.544616699219
-5 0.120571464300156 629.587341308594
-4 0.126870721578598 629.673217773438
-3 0.128859609365463 629.307312011719
-2 0.139919355511665 628.59814453125
-1 0.144761860370636 627.857116699219
-0.330000013113022 0.155371651053429 626.032409667969
0.330000013113022 0.154412165284157 622.522521972656
1 0.162416368722916 619.691345214844
2 0.162071689963341 618.946960449219
3 0.161742225289345 619.025695800781
4 0.162259072065353 619.604797363281
5 0.157615512609482 619.35595703125
6 0.155977040529251 619.3427734375
7 0.162347450852394 619.281677246094
8 0.15025606751442 619.998474121094

Figure 3b:

Quarters From Move Fraction Past Due Mean Risk Score
-8 0.113372780382633 627.1044921875
-7 0.121209859848022 626.69384765625
-6 0.121859513223171 627.531677246094
-5 0.117968864738941 628.655883789062
-4 0.11391569674015 630.108825683594
-3 0.112829282879829 630.837036132812
-2 0.113433226943016 631.594055175781
-1 0.114010125398636 631.883911132812
-0.330000013113022 0.122767731547356 630.238220214844
0.330000013113022 0.128609403967857 629.304626464844
1 0.144614070653915 626.820922851562
2 0.145310640335083 626.337890625
3 0.143724903464317 626.876953125
4 0.13834910094738 628.243347167969
5 0.139492392539978 627.682312011719
6 0.13848540186882 628.254211425781
7 0.142921730875969 629.078430175781
8 0.132907748222351 629.850646972656

Figure 4a: Comparing Effects of Debt and Economic Conditions 2005-2013 - Flows into Co-residence

Year Debt Economic Conditions
2005 0.00377209321595728 0.00220151082612574
2006 0.00376982428133488 0.00222171517089009
2007 0.00383170251734555 0.00218642619438469
2008 0.00386087829247117 0.00217016972601414
2009 0.0038323407061398 0.00249841995537281
2010 0.00381262158043683 0.00242709321901202
2011 0.0038232090882957 0.00225325953215361
2012 0.00391703844070435 0.00211825734004378
2013 0.00402414193376899 0.00208964431658387

Figure 4b: Comparing Effects of Debt and Economic Conditions 2005-2013 - Durations of Co-residence

Year Debt U-rates/Home Prices
2005 11.265646 11.478204
2006 11.463636 11.465328
2007 11.386752 11.487172
2008 11.486017 11.594771
2009 11.624331 11.681927
2010 11.725327 11.719988
2011 11.812771 11.757986
2012 11.866677 11.759477
2013 11.788271 11.738304
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