Finance and Economics Discussion Series: Data for paper 2014-80
♣
Returning to the Nest: Debt and Parental Co-residence Among Young Adults
Lisa J. Dettling and Joanne W. Hsu
Figure 1: Trends in Parental Co-residence
quarter |
livingwithparent |
smoothed_parent |
1989q1 |
0.2990172 |
0.31258478 |
1989q2 |
0.3148135 |
0.31258478 |
1989q3 |
0.3048748 |
0.31300506 |
1989q4 |
0.3094122 |
0.31300506 |
1990q1 |
0.302219 |
0.31334405 |
1990q2 |
0.3130705 |
0.31334405 |
1990q3 |
0.3151784 |
0.31370483 |
1990q4 |
0.3198044 |
0.31370483 |
1991q1 |
0.3081988 |
0.31401489 |
1991q2 |
0.3123384 |
0.31401489 |
1991q3 |
0.3133155 |
0.31435627 |
1991q4 |
0.3203058 |
0.31435627 |
1992q1 |
0.3085567 |
0.31466968 |
1992q2 |
0.3212027 |
0.31466968 |
1992q3 |
0.3220791 |
0.31515035 |
1992q4 |
0.3240332 |
0.31515035 |
1993q1 |
0.3083973 |
0.31562388 |
1993q2 |
0.3195656 |
0.31562388 |
1993q3 |
0.3126446 |
0.31632178 |
1993q4 |
0.3193477 |
0.31632178 |
1994q1 |
0.324138 |
0.316914 |
1994q2 |
0.3202626 |
0.316914 |
1994q3 |
0.30984 |
0.31749827 |
1994q4 |
0.3096952 |
0.31749827 |
1995q1 |
0.321459 |
0.31800451 |
1995q2 |
0.3186685 |
0.31800451 |
1995q3 |
0.3126125 |
0.31834604 |
1995q4 |
0.3125771 |
0.31834604 |
1996q1 |
0.3288744 |
0.31861892 |
1996q2 |
0.316798 |
0.31861892 |
1996q3 |
0.3141517 |
0.31877408 |
1996q4 |
0.3065803 |
0.31877408 |
1997q1 |
0.3280873 |
0.318941 |
1997q2 |
0.3214863 |
0.318941 |
1997q3 |
0.3151788 |
0.31907089 |
1997q4 |
0.3205045 |
0.31907089 |
1998q1 |
0.3277838 |
0.31913273 |
1998q2 |
0.3267069 |
0.31913273 |
1998q3 |
0.3151444 |
0.31903314 |
1998q4 |
0.3239437 |
0.31903314 |
1999q1 |
0.3307882 |
0.31889248 |
1999q2 |
0.324578 |
0.31889248 |
1999q3 |
0.311896 |
0.31868537 |
1999q4 |
0.3239495 |
0.31868537 |
2000q1 |
0.3247242 |
0.31840919 |
2000q2 |
0.3208423 |
0.31840919 |
2000q3 |
0.3088753 |
0.31799971 |
2000q4 |
0.3084667 |
0.31799971 |
2001q1 |
0.3123299 |
0.31751427 |
2001q2 |
0.3240395 |
0.31751427 |
2001q3 |
0.3167767 |
0.3168884 |
2001q4 |
0.31517 |
0.3168884 |
2002q1 |
0.3205845 |
0.31637797 |
2002q2 |
0.3243903 |
0.31637797 |
2002q3 |
0.3070856 |
0.31594704 |
2002q4 |
0.3149328 |
0.31594704 |
2003q1 |
0.3200838 |
0.31580854 |
2003q2 |
0.3210828 |
0.31580854 |
2003q3 |
0.3020694 |
0.31594378 |
2003q4 |
0.3131035 |
0.31594378 |
2004q1 |
0.3247711 |
0.31641409 |
2004q2 |
0.3169659 |
0.31641409 |
2004q3 |
0.3118784 |
0.31718478 |
2004q4 |
0.3133593 |
0.31718478 |
2005q1 |
0.3132246 |
0.31816547 |
2005q2 |
0.3183883 |
0.31816547 |
2005q3 |
0.3125737 |
0.31945156 |
2005q4 |
0.309038 |
0.31945156 |
2006q1 |
0.3192008 |
0.32112071 |
2006q2 |
0.3180802 |
0.32112071 |
2006q3 |
0.3011959 |
0.3232458 |
2006q4 |
0.3089278 |
0.3232458 |
2007q1 |
0.3243439 |
0.32571067 |
2007q2 |
0.3222235 |
0.32571067 |
2007q3 |
0.3057248 |
0.32862159 |
2007q4 |
0.3239845 |
0.32862159 |
2008q1 |
0.3339675 |
0.33160396 |
2008q2 |
0.3333608 |
0.33160396 |
2008q3 |
0.3134195 |
0.33494467 |
2008q4 |
0.3340948 |
0.33494467 |
2009q1 |
0.3379624 |
0.3378618 |
2009q2 |
0.3451279 |
0.3378618 |
2009q3 |
0.3188865 |
0.34095541 |
2009q4 |
0.3297787 |
0.34095541 |
2010q1 |
0.3441443 |
0.34343768 |
2010q2 |
0.3497719 |
0.34343768 |
2010q3 |
0.3256927 |
0.34616874 |
2010q4 |
0.3396682 |
0.34616874 |
2011q1 |
0.3513871 |
0.34818398 |
2011q2 |
0.3615896 |
0.34818398 |
2011q3 |
0.3478068 |
0.35050919 |
2011q4 |
0.3573184 |
0.35050919 |
2012q1 |
0.3639215 |
0.35218972 |
2012q2 |
0.3697053 |
0.35218972 |
2012q3 |
0.3563128 |
0.35422117 |
2012q4 |
0.3549191 |
0.35422117 |
2013q1 |
0.3602346 |
0.35574895 |
2013q2 |
0.3694742 |
0.35574895 |
2013q3 |
0.3585602 |
0.35764049 |
2013q4 |
0.3608031 |
0.35764049 |
2014q1 |
0.3593582 |
|
Figure A1 Panel a: Matching Trends in Parental Co-residence in the CPS and Credit Report Sample - Raw Means
quarter |
CPS |
FRBNY CCP/Equifax |
200503 |
0.313224583864212 |
0.315158426761627 |
200506 |
0.318388253450394 |
0.310896068811417 |
200509 |
0.314754635095596 |
0.309794425964355 |
200512 |
0.309037953615189 |
0.310330957174301 |
200603 |
0.319200843572617 |
0.310111463069916 |
200606 |
0.318080216646194 |
0.310946345329285 |
200609 |
0.305906116962433 |
0.308358639478683 |
200612 |
0.308927804231644 |
0.309887170791626 |
200703 |
0.324343919754028 |
0.327071279287338 |
200706 |
0.322223544120789 |
0.325367778539658 |
200709 |
0.31179004907608 |
0.326019316911697 |
200712 |
0.32398447394371 |
0.329558104276657 |
200803 |
0.333967506885529 |
0.34523594379425 |
200806 |
0.333360821008682 |
0.342907428741455 |
200809 |
0.322364747524261 |
0.346265733242035 |
200812 |
0.334094822406769 |
0.348066121339798 |
200903 |
0.337962359189987 |
0.365891933441162 |
200906 |
0.345127940177917 |
0.364926606416702 |
200909 |
0.328842014074326 |
0.366089016199112 |
200912 |
0.329778671264648 |
0.369621694087982 |
201003 |
0.345522105693817 |
0.386224120855331 |
201006 |
0.349771946668625 |
0.382676899433136 |
201009 |
0.337841928005219 |
0.382531583309174 |
201012 |
0.339668244123459 |
0.385649234056473 |
201103 |
0.34921196103096 |
0.400996744632721 |
201106 |
0.361589550971985 |
0.397930830717087 |
201109 |
0.347806811332703 |
0.394113838672638 |
201112 |
0.35731840133667 |
0.390089690685272 |
201203 |
0.363015323877335 |
0.402712881565094 |
201206 |
0.369705229997635 |
0.397688090801239 |
201209 |
0.356312781572342 |
0.392432540655136 |
201212 |
0.354919105768204 |
0.388769567012787 |
201303 |
0.358740568161011 |
0.402757227420807 |
201306 |
0.369474232196808 |
0.398000121116638 |
201309 |
0.358560234308243 |
0.393144726753235 |
201312 |
|
0.38844233751297 |
201403 |
|
0.410290062427521 |
Figure A1 Panel b: Matching Trends in Parental Co-residence in the CPS and Credit Report Sample - Mean Age-Adjusted Residuals
quarter |
CPS |
FRBNY CCP/Equifax |
200503 |
-0.0139673529192805 |
-0.053328350186348 |
200506 |
-0.0113611035048962 |
-0.0617591291666031 |
200509 |
-0.0127886440604925 |
-0.0689058527350426 |
200512 |
-0.0153896100819111 |
-0.0762887895107269 |
200603 |
-0.00441367737948895 |
-0.0397854670882225 |
200606 |
-0.00809408444911242 |
-0.0434058755636215 |
200609 |
-0.0174021124839783 |
-0.053680095821619 |
200612 |
-0.0135935982689261 |
-0.0597635991871357 |
200703 |
6.23941377853043e-05 |
-0.0250348709523678 |
200706 |
-0.00310596916824579 |
-0.032041858881712 |
200709 |
-0.0116369221359491 |
-0.0388902090489864 |
200712 |
-0.00165625102818012 |
-0.04484773427248 |
200803 |
0.0106292963027954 |
-0.0120278717949986 |
200806 |
0.00724489660933614 |
-0.0181115493178368 |
200809 |
-0.000104536156868562 |
-0.0233136620372534 |
200812 |
0.011336955241859 |
-0.0295066218823195 |
200903 |
0.0150913167744875 |
0.00597383081912994 |
200906 |
0.0198880732059479 |
0.0014375364407897 |
200909 |
0.00451000453904271 |
-0.00327464053407311 |
200912 |
0.00518940528854728 |
-0.00951192434877157 |
201003 |
0.0210978128015995 |
0.0259591564536095 |
201006 |
0.0263007264584303 |
0.01874571852386 |
201009 |
0.0161179415881634 |
0.0125623568892479 |
201012 |
0.0169003885239363 |
0.00592186627909541 |
201103 |
0.0238849576562643 |
0.0407970249652863 |
201106 |
0.0354070886969566 |
0.0346611514687538 |
201109 |
0.0251705702394247 |
0.0273926537483931 |
201112 |
0.0329619981348515 |
0.0203634165227413 |
201203 |
0.0342060104012489 |
0.0553584285080433 |
201206 |
0.0415914952754974 |
0.0488429479300976 |
201209 |
0.0292924884706736 |
0.0433176271617413 |
201212 |
0.0299740824848413 |
0.0388380698859692 |
201303 |
0.0351014100015163 |
0.076993890106678 |
201306 |
0.0428197868168354 |
0.0720507130026817 |
201309 |
0.0370231121778488 |
0.0669992566108704 |
201312 |
|
0.0615496672689915 |
201403 |
|
0.107967890799046 |
Figure 2a: Trends in Loan Balances and Delinquency - Mean Balances
quarter |
Studen Loans |
Auto Loans |
Credit Cards |
Mortgages |
200503 |
5260.333984375 |
3642.72705078125 |
2139.14379882812 |
15806.955078125 |
200506 |
5392.86572265625 |
3927.78930664062 |
2145.87158203125 |
16566.818359375 |
200509 |
5279.20947265625 |
4194.34619140625 |
2179.005859375 |
17257.9921875 |
200512 |
5390.33349609375 |
3978.59301757812 |
2203.40405273438 |
18431.71875 |
200603 |
5879.33642578125 |
3921.0927734375 |
2152.05883789062 |
19270.865234375 |
200606 |
5777.62890625 |
3957.44775390625 |
2183.32080078125 |
20121.197265625 |
200609 |
5776.20068359375 |
4083.68896484375 |
2255.1748046875 |
21079.4609375 |
200612 |
6129.47607421875 |
4118.01708984375 |
2312.6884765625 |
21759.59765625 |
200703 |
6331.45849609375 |
3863.76025390625 |
2134.80541992188 |
20168.275390625 |
200706 |
6232.83154296875 |
3895.88159179688 |
2181.28247070312 |
20599.77734375 |
200709 |
5620.91650390625 |
3966.97631835938 |
2285.02270507812 |
21473.796875 |
200712 |
6386.515625 |
3889.37744140625 |
2322.6181640625 |
21541.22265625 |
200803 |
6680.39794921875 |
3670.27661132812 |
2121.33032226562 |
19064.337890625 |
200806 |
6547.2734375 |
3633.75048828125 |
2115.818359375 |
19116.677734375 |
200809 |
6752.1005859375 |
3602.62060546875 |
2134.82885742188 |
19123.548828125 |
200812 |
7241.53125 |
3625.29809570312 |
2227.2431640625 |
19789.0625 |
200903 |
7426.537109375 |
3329.40991210938 |
1970.14685058594 |
17194.529296875 |
200906 |
7426.03173828125 |
3213.5068359375 |
1888.33801269531 |
17026.36328125 |
200909 |
7606.49365234375 |
3146.12548828125 |
1874.10339355469 |
17013.12109375 |
200912 |
7836.12548828125 |
3003.34814453125 |
1799.07885742188 |
16923.294921875 |
201003 |
8286.98828125 |
2772.884765625 |
1564.42944335938 |
14895.4736328125 |
201006 |
8267.7421875 |
2765.90893554688 |
1509.70568847656 |
15122.3076171875 |
201009 |
8386.8759765625 |
2784.25122070312 |
1492.5546875 |
15198.3662109375 |
201012 |
8595.0380859375 |
2738.10009765625 |
1458.9619140625 |
14899.427734375 |
201103 |
8881.005859375 |
2556.23071289062 |
1248.708984375 |
12796.0478515625 |
201106 |
8832.3017578125 |
2597.92529296875 |
1243.42163085938 |
12806.84375 |
201109 |
9045.5947265625 |
2695.00512695312 |
1270.63061523438 |
12886.423828125 |
201112 |
9306.095703125 |
2769.82153320312 |
1323.61755371094 |
13114.111328125 |
201203 |
9020.1689453125 |
2678.5341796875 |
1156.08666992188 |
11250.28515625 |
201206 |
9755.802734375 |
2818.96557617188 |
1173.20275878906 |
11554.89453125 |
201209 |
10176.7783203125 |
2959.60009765625 |
1226.74877929688 |
11941.03515625 |
201212 |
10384.568359375 |
3100.560546875 |
1296.58605957031 |
12495.6201171875 |
201303 |
10889.572265625 |
3059.8486328125 |
1163.12036132812 |
11047.638671875 |
201306 |
10967.8173828125 |
3230.60327148438 |
1211.74987792969 |
11442.234375 |
201309 |
11196.2197265625 |
3402.5517578125 |
1293.77392578125 |
12187.826171875 |
201312 |
11298.5419921875 |
3556.88720703125 |
1366.59313964844 |
13133.498046875 |
Figure 2b: Trends in Loan Balances and Delinquency - Delinquency
quarter |
Studen Loans |
Auto Loans |
Credit Cards |
Mortgages |
200503 |
0.0358377285301685 |
0.0126366829499602 |
0.0434817709028721 |
0.00549181923270226 |
200506 |
0.0360197201371193 |
0.0139225386083126 |
0.0419108793139458 |
0.00589194893836975 |
200509 |
0.0369946770370007 |
0.0156760588288307 |
0.0455789677798748 |
0.00650737294927239 |
200512 |
0.0359862968325615 |
0.0163736157119274 |
0.0460608005523682 |
0.00658947043120861 |
200603 |
0.0373791754245758 |
0.0138965966179967 |
0.040013674646616 |
0.00603627413511276 |
200606 |
0.0392762310802937 |
0.0153541974723339 |
0.0432755723595619 |
0.00682162865996361 |
200609 |
0.0411886535584927 |
0.0173145402222872 |
0.0473942346870899 |
0.00774466479197145 |
200612 |
0.0408145673573017 |
0.017849063500762 |
0.0510198175907135 |
0.00800303276628256 |
200703 |
0.0418996438384056 |
0.0151682114228606 |
0.046437568962574 |
0.00720179965719581 |
200706 |
0.0431158058345318 |
0.0171305183321238 |
0.0503455772995949 |
0.00826907716691494 |
200709 |
0.040598850697279 |
0.0192083306610584 |
0.056635569781065 |
0.00932968687266111 |
200712 |
0.0436892174184322 |
0.0201329328119755 |
0.0615323148667812 |
0.0104720629751682 |
200803 |
0.045150276273489 |
0.0166022256016731 |
0.0508517846465111 |
0.00908123049885035 |
200806 |
0.0457648709416389 |
0.0181304719299078 |
0.0480958856642246 |
0.00970311742275953 |
200809 |
0.0493198968470097 |
0.0201626140624285 |
0.0494596920907497 |
0.0109867276623845 |
200812 |
0.0495236702263355 |
0.02073741145432 |
0.0499146431684494 |
0.0123831359669566 |
200903 |
0.0512528568506241 |
0.0163728184998035 |
0.0434713214635849 |
0.010659790597856 |
200906 |
0.052925132215023 |
0.0173159763216972 |
0.0381886437535286 |
0.0115781901404262 |
200909 |
0.0549446046352386 |
0.0184151995927095 |
0.0383156016469002 |
0.0125494711101055 |
200912 |
0.0551246590912342 |
0.0176589116454124 |
0.036112304776907 |
0.0125833470374346 |
201003 |
0.0588452219963074 |
0.0133578991517425 |
0.0295076053589582 |
0.0105009758844972 |
201006 |
0.0603245534002781 |
0.0136711858212948 |
0.0270232260227203 |
0.0101166367530823 |
201009 |
0.0616282895207405 |
0.0144407777115703 |
0.0441098064184189 |
0.00989541597664356 |
201012 |
0.0597281977534294 |
0.0139088295400143 |
0.0421765334904194 |
0.00916825141757727 |
201103 |
0.0632364451885223 |
0.0108124250546098 |
0.0213393345475197 |
0.00723488535732031 |
201106 |
0.0640294030308723 |
0.0113228783011436 |
0.0218327511101961 |
0.00718845939263701 |
201109 |
0.0657657012343407 |
0.0126566179096699 |
0.0249405074864626 |
0.00759383616968989 |
201112 |
0.0612679049372673 |
0.0122315492480993 |
0.0265292283147573 |
0.00763111654669046 |
201203 |
0.06622014939785 |
0.00920745264738798 |
0.0213263537734747 |
0.00577704003080726 |
201206 |
0.0687792301177979 |
0.0106223504990339 |
0.0222834888845682 |
0.00615215068683028 |
201209 |
0.0884925574064255 |
0.0119892153888941 |
0.0251195300370455 |
0.0063662133179605 |
201212 |
0.0879160985350609 |
0.0129068791866302 |
0.0260780956596136 |
0.0064442353323102 |
201303 |
0.0895717814564705 |
0.010972804389894 |
0.0222261324524879 |
0.00491400668397546 |
201306 |
0.09003796428442 |
0.0112370001152158 |
0.0215977542102337 |
0.00472226506099105 |
201309 |
0.0963585004210472 |
0.0133050605654716 |
0.0239667035639286 |
0.00500974711030722 |
201312 |
0.0996885597705841 |
0.0143357794731855 |
0.0249877870082855 |
0.00515927979722619 |
Figure 3a:
Quarters From Move |
Fraction Past Due |
Mean Risk Score |
-8 |
0.108836635947227 |
630.983642578125 |
-7 |
0.119439393281937 |
629.422973632812 |
-6 |
0.123169057071209 |
629.544616699219 |
-5 |
0.120571464300156 |
629.587341308594 |
-4 |
0.126870721578598 |
629.673217773438 |
-3 |
0.128859609365463 |
629.307312011719 |
-2 |
0.139919355511665 |
628.59814453125 |
-1 |
0.144761860370636 |
627.857116699219 |
-0.330000013113022 |
0.155371651053429 |
626.032409667969 |
0.330000013113022 |
0.154412165284157 |
622.522521972656 |
1 |
0.162416368722916 |
619.691345214844 |
2 |
0.162071689963341 |
618.946960449219 |
3 |
0.161742225289345 |
619.025695800781 |
4 |
0.162259072065353 |
619.604797363281 |
5 |
0.157615512609482 |
619.35595703125 |
6 |
0.155977040529251 |
619.3427734375 |
7 |
0.162347450852394 |
619.281677246094 |
8 |
0.15025606751442 |
619.998474121094 |
Figure 3b:
Quarters From Move |
Fraction Past Due |
Mean Risk Score |
-8 |
0.113372780382633 |
627.1044921875 |
-7 |
0.121209859848022 |
626.69384765625 |
-6 |
0.121859513223171 |
627.531677246094 |
-5 |
0.117968864738941 |
628.655883789062 |
-4 |
0.11391569674015 |
630.108825683594 |
-3 |
0.112829282879829 |
630.837036132812 |
-2 |
0.113433226943016 |
631.594055175781 |
-1 |
0.114010125398636 |
631.883911132812 |
-0.330000013113022 |
0.122767731547356 |
630.238220214844 |
0.330000013113022 |
0.128609403967857 |
629.304626464844 |
1 |
0.144614070653915 |
626.820922851562 |
2 |
0.145310640335083 |
626.337890625 |
3 |
0.143724903464317 |
626.876953125 |
4 |
0.13834910094738 |
628.243347167969 |
5 |
0.139492392539978 |
627.682312011719 |
6 |
0.13848540186882 |
628.254211425781 |
7 |
0.142921730875969 |
629.078430175781 |
8 |
0.132907748222351 |
629.850646972656 |
Figure 4a: Comparing Effects of Debt and Economic Conditions 2005-2013 - Flows into Co-residence
Year |
Debt |
Economic Conditions |
2005 |
0.00377209321595728 |
0.00220151082612574 |
2006 |
0.00376982428133488 |
0.00222171517089009 |
2007 |
0.00383170251734555 |
0.00218642619438469 |
2008 |
0.00386087829247117 |
0.00217016972601414 |
2009 |
0.0038323407061398 |
0.00249841995537281 |
2010 |
0.00381262158043683 |
0.00242709321901202 |
2011 |
0.0038232090882957 |
0.00225325953215361 |
2012 |
0.00391703844070435 |
0.00211825734004378 |
2013 |
0.00402414193376899 |
0.00208964431658387 |
Figure 4b: Comparing Effects of Debt and Economic Conditions 2005-2013 - Durations of Co-residence
Year |
Debt |
U-rates/Home Prices |
2005 |
11.265646 |
11.478204 |
2006 |
11.463636 |
11.465328 |
2007 |
11.386752 |
11.487172 |
2008 |
11.486017 |
11.594771 |
2009 |
11.624331 |
11.681927 |
2010 |
11.725327 |
11.719988 |
2011 |
11.812771 |
11.757986 |
2012 |
11.866677 |
11.759477 |
2013 |
11.788271 |
11.738304 |