Residual Seasonality in GDP, Accessible Data
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Figure 1: Real GDP, Quarterly Change Relative to Q4/Q4 Change
Note: The GDP estimates are current (seasonally adjusted) estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Average of Q1 Growth - Q/Q4 Growth: 2010 to 2014 -1.7 percentage point; excluding 2011, 2014 -0.2 percentage point
Percentage point, annual rate
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | -1.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| 2011 | -3.2 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 2.9 |
| 2012 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.9 | -1.5 |
| 2013 | -0.4 | -1.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2014 | -4.5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | -0.2 |
Figure 2: Contributions to Real GDP Growth, by Quarter, percentage points at an annual rate, 2010 to 2014
Note: Seasonally adjusted, as published by the BEA.
The horizontal lines are the average contributions to real GDP growth for a given quarter since 2010.
Percentage points at an annual rate, 2010-2014
| Quarter | Consumption | Residential investment | Equipment and intangibles investment | Nonresidential structures investment | Federal government purchases | Local government purchases | Inventory investment | Net exports |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010Q1 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 1.2 | -0.7 | 0.3 | -1.0 | 1.7 | -0.9 |
| 2011Q1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -0.2 |
| 2012Q1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 2013Q1 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.1 |
| 2014Q1 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -1.2 | -1.7 |
| 2010Q2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 1.1 | -1.8 |
| 2011Q2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2012Q2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2013Q2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.5 |
| 2014Q2 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 | -0.3 |
| 2010Q3 | 1.8 | -0.9 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 1.9 | -0.8 |
| 2011Q3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -2.1 | 0.0 |
| 2012Q3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.4 |
| 2013Q3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2014Q3 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| 2010Q4 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.6 | -1.6 | 1.1 |
| 2011Q4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 2.8 | -0.2 |
| 2012Q4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -0.1 | -1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2013Q4 | 2.5 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | -0.8 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 1.1 |
| 2014Q4 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -1.0 |
Figure 3: Real PDFP, Quarterly Contrib. Relative to Q4/Q4 Contrib.
Note: The GDP estimates are current (seasonally adjusted) estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Average of Q1 Growth - Q/Q4 Growth: 2010 to 2014 -0.6 percentage point; excluding 2011, 2014 0.0 percentage point
Percentage point, annual rate
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | -1.2 | 1.2 | -1.1 | 1.1 |
| 2011 | -0.9 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 2012 | 1.0 | -0.7 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2013 | 0.2 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 0.8 |
| 2014 | -1.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 |