The Neutral Rate and the Summary of Economic Projections, Accessible Data
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Figure 1: Federal funds rate in the longer run
| SEP Vintage | Median | Lower Value: Central Tendency | Higher Value: Central Tendency |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 2012 | 4 | 3.75 | 4.25 |
| Sept. 2013 | 4 | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Sept. 2014 | 3.75 | 3.5 | 4 |
| Sept. 2015 | 3.5 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| Sept. 2016 | 2.9 | 2.75 | 3 |
Sources: The SEP is an addendum to the FOMC meeting minutes; data taken from SEPs in September 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016.
Figure 2: Estimated value of $$ E_t\left\{r^*_{t+h}\right\}$$ and $$ E_t\left\{r_{t+h}-r^*_{t+h}\right\}$$
Panel A: $$ E_t\left\{r^*_{t+h}\right\}$$
| SEP Vintage | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 2012 | 1.56 | 1.19 | ||||
| Sept. 2013 | 1.23 | 1.36 | ||||
| Sept. 2014 | 1.11 | 2.1 | ||||
| Sept. 2015 | -0.4 | 0.7 | ||||
| Sept. 2016 | 0.01 | -0.51 |
Panel B: $$ E_t\left\{r_{t+h}-r^*_{t+h}\right\}$$
| SEP Vintage | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 2012 | -3.21 | -2.39 | ||||
| Sept. 2013 | -2.83 | -2.31 | ||||
| Sept. 2014 | -1.635 | -1.175 | ||||
| Sept. 2015 | -0.1 | -0.1 | ||||
| Sept. 2016 | -0.91 | 0.41 |
Sources: The SEP is an addendum to the FOMC meeting minutes; data taken from SEPs in September 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016.