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December 5, 2016

Inflation Perceptions and Inflation Expectations

Alan Detmeister, David Lebow, and Ekaterina Peneva

Given the presumed role of inflation expectations in influencing actual inflation, it is important to understand the implications of the survey expectations and whether differences from official estimates contain an important signal.

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Financial graphs
December 5, 2016

Prices and Depreciation in the Market for Tablet Computers

David Byrne, Wendy Dunn, and Eugenio Pinto

Spurred by advances in electronic miniaturization and power efficiency, lightweight, powerful and inexpensive tablet computers entered the mass market in significant volumes in 2010. Since that time, sales of tablet computers have increased to account for over half of personal computer (PC) units sold worldwide.

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Hurricane Matthew
December 2, 2016

The Effect of Hurricane Matthew on Consumer Spending

Aditya Aladangady, Shifrah Aron-Dine, Wendy Dunn, Laura Feiveson, Paul Lengermann, and Claudia Sahm

Severe weather events, such as blizzards and hurricanes, can temporarily disrupt economic activity. The imprints of these events on aggregate statistics can make it challenging for macroeconomists to analyze and forecast economic conditions.

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Financial graphs
December 1, 2016

Holiday Spending and Financing Decisions in the 2015 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking

Jeff Larrimore

One of the recurring themes in the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED) is a lack of savings capacity for many individuals.

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Pen with charts stock photo
November 28, 2016

The Neutral Rate and the Summary of Economic Projections

Michelle Bongard and Benjamin K. Johannsen

This note uses information provided in the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting participants to extract estimates of the neutral federal funds rate--defined as the value of the federal funds rate that is "neither expansionary nor contractionary if the economy were operating near its potential"--in the short and longer run.

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Board building
November 22, 2016

The Tools and Transmission of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy in the 1920s

Mark Carlson and Burcu Duygan-Bump

This note describes the tools used by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to implement monetary policy in the 1920s and the degree to which changes in these tools were transmitted to private money markets.

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November 18, 2016

Front-End Term Premiums in Federal Funds Futures Rates and Implied Probabilities of Future Rate Hikes

Don H. Kim and Hiroatsu Tanaka

In this note, we examine empirical evidence on term premiums at the very front end, utilizing federal funds futures data as well as responses to the Desk's sell-side survey (Survey of Primary Dealers, or PD survey) and buy-side survey (Survey of Market Participants), and discuss plausible front-end term premium assumptions that one can use to extract probabilities of a rate hike at upcoming meetings from market quotes.

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House illustration
October 19, 2016

"Limited Attention" and Inflation Expectations of Households

Claudia Sahm and Jason Sockin

In this note, we use the household-level data in the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, including respondents' own changes in expectations, to document new signs that households pay limited attention to inflation developments.

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October 6, 2016

Updating the Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium

Giovanni Favara, Simon Gilchrist, Kurt F. Lewis, and Egon Zakrajšek

Beginning with the publication of this Note, we will provide updated estimates of the EBP and the associated model-implied probability of a U.S. recession every month.

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Illustration of houses
September 29, 2016

Changing FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums and the Effects on Lending

Neil Bhutta and Daniel Ringo

To what extent can the cost of credit affect home buying and mortgage borrowing activity?

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Illustration of houses
September 29, 2016

Credit Availability and the Decline in Mortgage Lending to Minorities after the Housing Boom

Neil Bhutta and Daniel Ringo

This note sheds light on the factors contributing to the disproportionate decline in lending to minorities since 2006.

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A pen rests on charts
August 30, 2016

Inflation Expectations in the Recovery from the Great Depression

Andrew Jalil and Gisela Rua

In this note, we draw on our recent research on the role of inflation expectations in the recovery from the Great Depression of the 1930s (Jalil and Rua, 2016a and 2016b) to provide insights into the actions that can successfully shift inflation expectations and stimulate economic recovery.

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New Jersey heat map thumbnail
August 17, 2016

Maternity Leave and the Gender Wage Gap: An Analysis of New Jersey Family Leave Insurance

Maria D. Tito

Women, on average, are paid less than men. According to the 2015 report prepared by the Institute for Women's Policy Research (IWPR), female full-time workers in the United States received only 81 cents for every dollar earned by men; this difference amounts to a gender wage gap of 19 percent.

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Financial graphs
August 5, 2016

Funding Agreement-Backed Securities in the Enhanced Financial Accounts

Nathan Foley-Fisher, Ralf R. Meisenzahl, Borghan Narajabad, Maria G. Perozek, and Stephane H. Verani

This note describes new data on funding agreement-backed securities (FABS) that is being provided as part of the Enhanced Financial Accounts (EFA) initiative.

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Globe on charts
August 5, 2016

International Portfolio Investment Holdings of Long-term Securities in the Enhanced Financial Accounts

Elizabeth Holmquist, Max Miller, and Youngsuk Yook 1

This note and associated website provide new detail on international portfolio investment holdings of long-term securities, as part of the Enhanced Financial Accounts (EFA) initiative.

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Financial graphs
August 2, 2016

Which market indicators best forecast recessions?

Travis Berge, Nitish Sinha, and Michael Smolyansky

In this note, we use econometric methods to infer which economic and financial indicators reliably identify and predict recessions.

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Financial paperwork
July 29, 2016

Has Tax-Preferred Retirement Saving Offset Rising Wealth Concentration?

Sebastian Devlin-Foltz, Alice M. Henriques, and John E. Sabelhaus

The share of wealth owned by top wealth-holders in the U.S. has been rising over the past few decades, though there is some debate about exactly how concentrated wealth is, and how fast those top wealth shares are rising.

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Blank Social Security card
July 29, 2016

The Role of Social Security in Overall Retirement Resources: A Distributional Perspective

Sebastian Devlin-Foltz, Alice Henriques, and John Sabelhaus

In this note, we first present trends in participation in employment-related retirement plans, and then provide analysis for one birth cohort, nearing retirement age, of the impact of Social Security on retirement wealth.

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July 15, 2016

Bank Complexity: Is Size Everything?

Jeremy Oldfather, Stefan Gissler, and Doriana Ruffino

Can we measure the complexity of large banks by comparing their balance sheets?

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Financial paperwork
June 29, 2016

Findings on Relative Deprivation from the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking

Sam Dodini

The Federal Reserve's Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED) contains questions designed to ascertain overall economic well-being and fragility, which can be used to gauge both the perceptions individuals have about their own economic status and an approximation of their actual financial health.

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Car illustration
June 24, 2016

The Young and the Carless? The Demographics of New Vehicle Purchases

Christopher Kurz, Geng Li, and Daniel Vine

A number of recent studies and press articles have documented a dramatic decline in young adults' willingness to own vehicles, particularly in the years since the 2007-09 recession.

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Finance data on tablet
June 23, 2016

A Cautionary Note on the Help Wanted Online Data

Tomaz Cajner and David Ratner

Measuring labor demand is one of the crucial tasks in analyzing the labor market.

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Data charts on a computer screen
June 2, 2016

Macroeconomic Sources of Recent Interest Rate Fluctuations

Stefania D'Amico, Thomas B. King, and Min Wei

The authors use a new statistical method to attribute daily changes in U.S. Treasury yields and inflation compensation to changes in investor beliefs about domestic and foreign growth, inflation, and monetary policy.

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FEDS note chart
May 26, 2016

Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Frictions for Macroprudential Policymaking: A Review of Pressing Challenges

Michael T. Kiley

Structural macroeconomic modeling plays a central role economic policy discussions.

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Financial paperwork
May 26, 2016

Corporate Bond Issuers' Swap Exposure to Rising Interest Rates

Richard Ogden, Francisco Palomino, Nitish Sinha, and Youngsuk Yook

United States corporate bond issuance has been elevated in recent years relative to historical standards, reflecting in part accommodative financing conditions at historically low rates.

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Various workers
May 16, 2016

Is Underemployment Underestimated? Evidence from Panel Data

Geng Li and Brett McCully

Despite a broad recovery of the U.S. economy from the depths of the Great Recession, lingering slack remains in the labor market.

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Board building
May 11, 2016

Where do I see the Monetary Policy Normalization Tools on the Fed's Balance Sheet and Income Statement?

Christian Miller and Casey Clark

On December 16, 2015, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) determined it was appropriate to raise the effective federal funds rate from the 0 to 25 basis point range it had been set at since late 2008. This note highlights where some of the key elements of the FOMC's approach to policy normalization are reported on the Federal Reserve's website.

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A globe sitting on a chart
May 2, 2016

The Role of Global Supply Chains in the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake

Christoph E. Boehm, Aaron Flaaen, and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

The April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in southwest Japan has sent ripple effects through global supply chains. Toyota, Honda and Sony halted most Japanese production following the quake, and more recently General Motors announced production stoppages at four North American plants, citing parts shortages. Such far-reaching consequences of natural disasters are not without precedent.

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A chart
April 12, 2016

Government-Backed Mortgage Insurance Promoted a Speedier Recovery from the Great Recession

Wayne Passmore and Shane M. Sherlund

The United Sates government has a long history of involvement in mortgage finance. During the 1930s, the government created the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB), the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae).

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A chart
April 8, 2016

Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium

Giovanni Favara, Simon Gilchrist, Kurt F. Lewis, and Egon Zakrajšek

Corporate bond spreads and the slope of the Treasury yield curve (that is, the term spread) are two financial indicators that are especially informative about the likelihood of an economic downturn over a medium-term horizon.

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A chart
April 4, 2016

Has the inflation risk premium fallen? Is it now negative?

Andrew Chen, Eric Engstrom, Olesya Grishchenko

Inflation compensation is widely used by market commentators to gauge the expectations of investors regarding the outlook for inflation.

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Pen resting on a chart
March 29, 2016

Corporate Equities by Issuer in the Financial Accounts of the United States

Richard E. Ogden, Damian R. Thomas, and Missaka Warusawitharana

This FEDS Note shows how we report the value of corporate equities outstanding in the Financial Accounts and describes how we estimate each of its components.

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Illustration of Houses
March 28, 2016

Do People Leave Money on the Table? Evidence from Joint Mortgage Applications and the Minimum FICO Rule

Geng Li, Weifeng Wu, and Vincent Yao

There is mounting evidence that households make suboptimal savings and investment decisions.

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Oil pump
March 22, 2016

Unraveling the Oil Conundrum: Productivity Improvements and Cost Declines in the U.S. Shale Oil Industry

Ryan Decker, Aaron Flaaen, and Maria Tito

Why have large declines in oil prices and in the rig count not triggered a more dramatic decline in production? At what price level would a large share of U.S. shale oil production lose economic viability?

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Data on a tablet and in printouts
March 4, 2016

History of the Federal Reserve Board Statistical Releases

Gisela Rua and Sian L. Seldin

In this note, we describe the history of the Federal Reserve Board statistical publications presented in FEDS Paper 2016-016.

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Coin stacks
March 3, 2016

Funding Agreement-Backed Securities in the Financial Accounts of the United States

Elizabeth Holmquist and Maria Perozek

This note describes a new method of accounting for funding agreement-backed securities (FABS) in the Financial Accounts of the United States.

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Charts on a computer screen
March 2, 2016

Annual Data on Investment and Capital Stocks

Christopher Kurz and Norman Morin

As part of the estimation of capacity for publication of its G.17 statistical release on industrial production and capacity utilization, the Federal Reserve Board produces annual information on the real capital stock and real investment for detailed industries within the manufacturing sector.

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Board building
February 22, 2016

What Happened in Money Markets after the Fed's December Rate Increase?

Alyssa Anderson, Jane Ihrig, Ellen Meade, and Gretchen Weinbach

At its December 2015 meeting, the Fed's policymaking committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), announced an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate of 25 basis points, the first increase in the policy rate since June 2006.

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A pair of glasses rest of financial paperwork
February 12, 2016

The Risk of Returning to the Effective Lower Bound: An Implication for Inflation Dynamics after Lift-Off

Timothy Hills, Taisuke Nakata, and Sebastian Schmidt

In this note, we analyze an implication of the effective lower bound (ELB) risk--the possibility that adverse shocks will force policymakers in the future to lower the policy rate to the ELB--on inflation dynamics after liftoff.

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Generic charts on a blue background
February 12, 2016

The Federal Reserve's New Approach to Raising Interest Rates

Jane Ihrig, Ellen Meade, and Gretchen Weinbach, with Melanie Josselyn

At its December 2015 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)--the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee--raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the end of an extraordinary seven-year period during which the federal funds target range was held near zero to support the recovery of the U.S. economy from the worst financial crisis and recession since the Great Depression.

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Line charts
February 9, 2016

The Expected Real Interest Rate in the Long Run: Time Series Evidence with the Effective Lower Bound

Benjamin K. Johannsen and Elmar Mertens

In response to the global financial crisis, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the target for the federal funds rate to a range of 0 to 25 basis points in December 2008, and maintained that target range until the end of 2015. Over that same period, longer-term interest rates in the United States were at historically low levels.

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Charts on a computer screen
February 5, 2016

State and Local Pension Funding in the Enhanced Financial Accounts

Matthew Hoops, Paul Smith, and Irina Stefanescu

In this Note we describe new state-level data on the funding status of state and local government defined-benefit pension plans, which is part of the Enhanced Financial Accounts (EFA) initiative.

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Graduation cap on top of currency
February 3, 2016

Saving for College and Section 529 Plans

Simona Hannon, Kevin Moore, Max Schmeiser, and Irina Stefanescu 1

The past decade has simultaneously witnessed a substantial increase in enrollment at post-secondary institutions and a marked increase in college tuition. Not surprisingly, this trend overlapped with an increased demand for student loans and tax-advantaged educational savings.

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Disclaimer: FEDS Notes are articles in which Board economists offer their own views and present analysis on a range of topics in economics and finance. These articles are shorter and less technically oriented than FEDS Working Papers.

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Last update: December 5, 2016