Predicting Fed Forecasts, Accessible Data
Accessible version of figures
Figure 1: The current-outlook and future-outlook FMIs, the Greenbook forecasts of the current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead U.S. real GDP growth rates, and the differentials between the FMI and Greenbook forecasts.
|
FMI0 |
GBkH0 |
| 2006(1) |
3.4 |
4.1 |
| 2006(2) |
4 |
4.7 |
| 2006(3) |
4 |
3.7 |
| 2006(4) |
2.1 |
2 |
| 2006(5) |
2.8 |
2.2 |
| 2006(6) |
2.1 |
1.8 |
| 2006(7) |
2.1 |
2.3 |
| 2006(8) |
2.1 |
1.3 |
| 2007(1) |
2.1 |
2 |
| 2007(2) |
2.8 |
1.5 |
| 2007(3) |
2.1 |
2.6 |
| 2007(4) |
2.8 |
3 |
| 2007(5) |
2.8 |
2.2 |
| 2007(6) |
2.8 |
2.6 |
| 2007(7) |
3.4 |
1.4 |
| 2007(8) |
0.9 |
0.1 |
| 2008(1) |
0.3 |
0.6 |
| 2008(2) |
-0.4 |
0.1 |
| 2008(3) |
0.3 |
-1.4 |
| 2008(4) |
0.3 |
1.7 |
| 2008(5) |
0.3 |
0.7 |
| 2008(6) |
0.9 |
0.6 |
| 2008(7) |
-0.4 |
-1.3 |
| 2008(8) |
-1 |
-4.7 |
| 2009(1) |
-1 |
-5.6 |
| 2009(2) |
-1 |
-6.5 |
| 2009(3) |
0.9 |
-1.5 |
| 2009(4) |
0.9 |
-1 |
| 2009(5) |
0.9 |
0.8 |
| 2009(6) |
2.1 |
2.5 |
| 2009(7) |
2.1 |
2.8 |
| 2009(8) |
2.8 |
3.8 |
| 2010(1) |
3.4 |
- |
| 2010(2) |
3.4 |
- |
| 2010(3) |
2.8 |
- |
| 2010(4) |
2.8 |
- |
| 2010(5) |
2.1 |
- |
| 2010(6) |
2.1 |
- |
| 2010(7) |
2.8 |
- |
| 2010(8) |
2.8 |
- |
|
FMI1 |
GBkH1 |
| 2006(1) |
2.8 |
3.8 |
| 2006(2) |
2.8 |
3.5 |
| 2006(3) |
2.8 |
3.2 |
| 2006(4) |
2.8 |
2.7 |
| 2006(5) |
2.8 |
2.1 |
| 2006(6) |
2.8 |
1.7 |
| 2006(7) |
2.8 |
2.1 |
| 2006(8) |
2.8 |
1.7 |
| 2007(1) |
2.8 |
2.3 |
| 2007(2) |
2.8 |
2.3 |
| 2007(3) |
2.8 |
2 |
| 2007(4) |
2.8 |
2.5 |
| 2007(5) |
2.8 |
1.6 |
| 2007(6) |
0.9 |
1 |
| 2007(7) |
2.1 |
1.5 |
| 2007(8) |
0.9 |
0.7 |
| 2008(1) |
-0.4 |
1.2 |
| 2008(2) |
-1 |
-1 |
| 2008(3) |
-0.4 |
1.2 |
| 2008(4) |
2.1 |
0.9 |
| 2008(5) |
0.3 |
0.4 |
| 2008(6) |
0.3 |
1.1 |
| 2008(7) |
0.3 |
-1.4 |
| 2008(8) |
-1 |
-5 |
| 2009(1) |
-0.4 |
-1.3 |
| 2009(2) |
-1 |
-2 |
| 2009(3) |
0.3 |
0.4 |
| 2009(4) |
0.9 |
0.7 |
| 2009(5) |
2.1 |
1.7 |
| 2009(6) |
2.1 |
3.2 |
| 2009(7) |
2.8 |
3.2 |
| 2009(8) |
2.8 |
3.6 |
| 2010(1) |
2.8 |
- |
| 2010(2) |
2.8 |
- |
| 2010(3) |
2.8 |
- |
| 2010(4) |
2.8 |
- |
| 2010(5) |
2.8 |
- |
| 2010(6) |
2.1 |
- |
| 2010(7) |
2.8 |
- |
| 2010(8) |
3.4 |
- |
|
FMI0GBkH0 |
| 2006(1) |
-0.7 |
| 2006(2) |
-0.7 |
| 2006(3) |
0.3 |
| 2006(4) |
0.1 |
| 2006(5) |
0.6 |
| 2006(6) |
0.3 |
| 2006(7) |
-0.2 |
| 2006(8) |
0.8 |
| 2007(1) |
0.1 |
| 2007(2) |
1.3 |
| 2007(3) |
-0.5 |
| 2007(4) |
-0.2 |
| 2007(5) |
0.6 |
| 2007(6) |
0.2 |
| 2007(7) |
2 |
| 2007(8) |
0.8 |
| 2008(1) |
-0.3 |
| 2008(2) |
-0.5 |
| 2008(3) |
1.7 |
| 2008(4) |
-1.4 |
| 2008(5) |
-0.4 |
| 2008(6) |
0.3 |
| 2008(7) |
0.9 |
| 2008(8) |
3.7 |
| 2009(1) |
4.6 |
| 2009(2) |
5.5 |
| 2009(3) |
2.4 |
| 2009(4) |
1.9 |
| 2009(5) |
0.1 |
| 2009(6) |
-0.4 |
| 2009(7) |
-0.7 |
| 2009(8) |
-1 |
| 2010(1) |
- |
| 2010(2) |
- |
| 2010(3) |
- |
| 2010(4) |
- |
| 2010(5) |
- |
| 2010(6) |
- |
| 2010(7) |
- |
| 2010(8) |
- |
|
FMI1GBkH1 |
| 2006(1) |
-1 |
| 2006(2) |
-0.7 |
| 2006(3) |
-0.4 |
| 2006(4) |
0.1 |
| 2006(5) |
0.7 |
| 2006(6) |
1.1 |
| 2006(7) |
0.7 |
| 2006(8) |
1.1 |
| 2007(1) |
0.5 |
| 2007(2) |
0.5 |
| 2007(3) |
0.8 |
| 2007(4) |
0.3 |
| 2007(5) |
1.2 |
| 2007(6) |
-0.1 |
| 2007(7) |
0.6 |
| 2007(8) |
0.2 |
| 2008(1) |
-1.6 |
| 2008(2) |
0 |
| 2008(3) |
-1.6 |
| 2008(4) |
1.2 |
| 2008(5) |
-0.1 |
| 2008(6) |
-0.8 |
| 2008(7) |
1.7 |
| 2008(8) |
4 |
| 2009(1) |
0.9 |
| 2009(2) |
1 |
| 2009(3) |
-0.1 |
| 2009(4) |
0.2 |
| 2009(5) |
0.4 |
| 2009(6) |
-1.1 |
| 2009(7) |
-0.4 |
| 2009(8) |
-0.8 |
| 2010(1) |
- |
| 2010(2) |
- |
| 2010(3) |
- |
| 2010(4) |
- |
| 2010(5) |
- |
| 2010(6) |
- |
| 2010(7) |
- |
| 2010(8) |
- |
Return to text.
Figure 2: The truncation-adjusted FOMC Minutes Index for the current outlook, the Greenbook forecast of the U.S. real GDP growth rate in the current quarter, and ±1 standard error bands for the FMI's predictions in 2010. See accessible link for data.
|
FMI0 |
GBkH0 |
| 2006(1) |
3.4 |
4.1 |
| 2006(2) |
4 |
4.7 |
| 2006(3) |
4 |
3.7 |
| 2006(4) |
2.1 |
2 |
| 2006(5) |
2.8 |
2.2 |
| 2006(6) |
2.1 |
1.8 |
| 2006(7) |
2.1 |
2.3 |
| 2006(8) |
2.1 |
1.3 |
| 2007(1) |
2.1 |
2 |
| 2007(2) |
2.8 |
1.5 |
| 2007(3) |
2.1 |
2.6 |
| 2007(4) |
2.8 |
3 |
| 2007(5) |
2.8 |
2.2 |
| 2007(6) |
2.8 |
2.6 |
| 2007(7) |
3.4 |
1.4 |
| 2007(8) |
0.9 |
0.1 |
| 2008(1) |
0.3 |
0.6 |
| 2008(2) |
-0.4 |
0.1 |
| 2008(3) |
0.3 |
-1.4 |
| 2008(4) |
0.3 |
1.7 |
| 2008(5) |
0.3 |
0.7 |
| 2008(6) |
0.9 |
0.6 |
| 2008(7) |
-0.4 |
-1.3 |
| 2008(8) |
-4.7 |
-4.7 |
| 2009(1) |
-5.6 |
-5.6 |
| 2009(2) |
-6.5 |
-6.5 |
| 2009(3) |
0.9 |
-1.5 |
| 2009(4) |
0.9 |
-1 |
| 2009(5) |
0.9 |
0.8 |
| 2009(6) |
2.1 |
2.5 |
| 2009(7) |
2.1 |
2.8 |
| 2009(8) |
2.8 |
3.8 |
| 2010(1) |
3.4 |
2.8 |
| 2010(2) |
3.4 |
2.2 |
| 2010(3) |
2.8 |
3.5 |
| 2010(4) |
2.8 |
3.6 |
| 2010(5) |
2.1 |
2.4 |
| 2010(6) |
2.1 |
1.7 |
| 2010(7) |
2.8 |
2.4 |
| 2010(8) |
2.8 |
2.5 |
Return to text.
Figure 3: The truncation-adjusted FOMC Minutes Index for the future outlook, the Greenbook forecast of the U.S. real GDP growth rate one quarter ahead, and ±1 standard error bands for the FMI's predictions in 2010.
|
FMI1 |
GBkH1 |
| 2006(1) |
2.8 |
3.8 |
| 2006(2) |
2.8 |
3.5 |
| 2006(3) |
2.8 |
3.2 |
| 2006(4) |
2.8 |
2.7 |
| 2006(5) |
2.8 |
2.1 |
| 2006(6) |
2.8 |
1.7 |
| 2006(7) |
2.8 |
2.1 |
| 2006(8) |
2.8 |
1.7 |
| 2007(1) |
2.8 |
2.3 |
| 2007(2) |
2.8 |
2.3 |
| 2007(3) |
2.8 |
2 |
| 2007(4) |
2.8 |
2.5 |
| 2007(5) |
2.8 |
1.6 |
| 2007(6) |
0.9 |
1 |
| 2007(7) |
2.1 |
1.5 |
| 2007(8) |
0.9 |
0.7 |
| 2008(1) |
-0.4 |
1.2 |
| 2008(2) |
-1 |
-1 |
| 2008(3) |
-0.4 |
1.2 |
| 2008(4) |
2.1 |
0.9 |
| 2008(5) |
0.3 |
0.4 |
| 2008(6) |
0.3 |
1.1 |
| 2008(7) |
0.3 |
-1.4 |
| 2008(8) |
-5 |
-5 |
| 2009(1) |
-1.3 |
-1.3 |
| 2009(2) |
-2 |
-2 |
| 2009(3) |
0.3 |
0.4 |
| 2009(4) |
0.9 |
0.7 |
| 2009(5) |
2.1 |
1.7 |
| 2009(6) |
2.1 |
3.2 |
| 2009(7) |
2.8 |
3.2 |
| 2009(8) |
2.8 |
3.6 |
| 2010(1) |
2.8 |
3.8 |
| 2010(2) |
2.8 |
3.6 |
| 2010(3) |
2.8 |
3.6 |
| 2010(4) |
2.8 |
2.7 |
| 2010(5) |
2.8 |
2.6 |
| 2010(6) |
2.1 |
2.4 |
| 2010(7) |
2.8 |
2.7 |
| 2010(8) |
3.4 |
3.4 |
Return to text.
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